Years ago, I was fortunate to attend a presentation by W. Mitchell called “It’s not what happens to you, it’s what you do about it.” It’s a book, and a rollercoaster ride through a truly amazing life. I remember walking out of that event knowing it was something I’ll remember forever.
The title works in many situations, including the Oilers today. The club is down 2-0, has been outscored 12-6, and were shutout by the backup goalie. What’s more, after a ghastly two minutes, in which three goals were scored, the Oilers were easier to play against. Their spirit had been broken.
Now, that doesn’t have to mean the series is over, but history suggests the climb is damn near impossible. They used to call this ‘gut check’ time and ask if the team had the right stuff. Up against a more talented team, with the luck possession arrow also going to the other guy, what will these Edmonton Oilers do about it?
NEW: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
- New DNB: Oilers on brink of disaster after a crushing 2 minutes in Colorado
- DNB: Why the Oilers should play Dylan Holloway against the Avalanche
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Holland gets how much credit for playoff success?
- DNB: Why Cale Makar’s unquestionable goal did in the Oilers in Game 1
- DNB: Oilers vs. Avalanche is Manson vs. Manson
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan McLeod uses blazing speed to move up depth chart
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Peter Baugh and Lowetide: Breaking down Oilers vs. Avalanche
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Zach Hyman’s value continues to rise in playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins having effective playoffs before big goals
- DNB: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins gets his chance to shine in the playoffs
- DNB: Cody Ceci making himself ‘irreplaceable’ in playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers future relies on quality coaching replacement in Bakersfield
- Lowetide: Has Oilers goalie Mike Smith earned the net in 2022-23?
- DNB: This is how Connor McDavid wins: ‘He’s like a shark circling the waters’
- DNB: How Dave Manson is making the Oilers blue line better
GOALTENDER
Mike Smith stopped 35 of 39, .897 and will probably take much of the blame. I think he needed to stop the Manson shot, and appeared to be having a wardrobe malfunction on the fourth goal (I kid, surprised they didn’t blow the play dead), but I think you have to work very hard to make Smith the villain of this piece.
DEFENSE
Duncan Keith played 23 minutes, including a pile shorthanded. It was (to my eye) one of his better games, and filthiest. I know the Avs aren’t getting penalties called, and the Oilers were parading to the box, but Keith is performing surgery back there and no one says boo. Veterans get away with murder in this league. Keith had a bad change on the Rantanen goal, no minus but that put Nurse in a difficult situation.
Evan Bouchard is one of my favourites, but his decision to pinch and then finish a check 190 feet from his own net was bad form. Had a takeaway, a hit, one shot on goal. I had high expectations for the young blue in this series, he did some good things in the first game. Needs to have a big game Saturday.
Darnell Nurse needs to be moved down the depth chart. He is 1-6 five-on-five on-ice goals in this series, after going 9-6 in the Calgary series. He made two poor plays on GA, the first a poor area pass to Cody Ceci that missed the mark badly. Nurse did get a grenade pass from Nuge on the play, more in a minute. One the other GA, he continued a fairly long streak of Oilers defensemen not defending two-on-one chances worth one damn. Six shot attempts, crosschecked Valeri Nichushkin several times just to make sure. Third pair Saturday. Has to be.
Cody Ceci had three shots on goal, hit people, blocked pucks, played hard, smart player. During the game, his facial expressions are a perfect reflection of the moment. Last night, just before a PK faceoff in the defensive zone, he made a perfect George Clooney “dammit! We’re in a tight spot!” expression. Really gave you a feel for the possible danger. I’m serious here. He captures the moment.
Brett Kulak had three blocked shots, worked hard, recovered pucks, I was genuinely surprised he didn’t move up the depth chart. Tyson Barrie had three shots, six attempts, the only downbeat was shot selection on the PP. Passes didn’t have zip and things were predictable. The 0-2 goals in the table above is incorrect.
All of the defensemen, and the center, have to be better at overcoming the Avalanche forecheck. It killed them last night.
FORWARDS
- Zach Hyman had two of seven HDSC for the team on the night. One of the few Oilers who could overcome an aggressive and fast Avs backchecking.
- Connor McDavid wasn’t able to break free much on the evening. McDavid said (via Ryan Rishaug of TSN) “I probably haven’t been at the top of my game here. They’ve done a good job at limiting chances.” That’s an important acknowledgement. McDavid will be a hammer on Saturday.
- Evander Kane took two penalties, had eight hits and didn’t look his usual dangerous self much at all. He wasn’t alone.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins made a ghastly pass to Nurse in the high slot that set off the first GA. I love the Nuge’s game, this is maybe the fifth time since he got here that I was genuinely baffled by a play from 93. Poor. What will he bring on Saturday?
- Leon Draisaitl took a penalty reacting to the Yamamoto hit, and that was a tough moment for the team. He was forcing plays, just one turnover, but not at his best. I know he’ll bring it Saturday.
- Kailer Yamamoto took a hit, left with an upper body injury and you are free to worry about him. That didn’t look like a Taylor Swift to me. #shakeitoff
- Warren Foegele worked hard, contested a lot of plays, but was unable to move the needle offensively.
- Ryan McLeod makes me smile with his ability to wheel and compete. This kid is doing it! If Howie Meeker were here, he’d be ‘by gollying’ every game about this young center.
- Jesse Puljujarvi continues to play good games, almost scored an early goal and man if it cashed we might be having a different conversation.
- Zack Kassian took a penalty while the team was behind, and the penalty came when he was on the bench. Is this a smart play? No. No it is not.
- Derek Ryan won eight of 12 on the dot, was part of the mess on the Manson goal, but I think he’ll be in the lineup Saturday night.
- Josh Archibald had two hits.
REPLACEMENTS?
If Yamamoto is hurt, one would think Dylan Holloway makes his NHL debut. If the Oilers go 7D, one of Russell or Broberg will draw in. I could also see Yamamoto out and a D added being the only move, but Holloway is available and has the kind of speed that will set the Avalanche back on their heels. Great passer too.
LINE MATCHING
- McDavid was once again up against Toews-Makar, 10:31 versus Toews, no goals but lost the shots 10-6.
- McDavid also once again against the MacKinnon line, no goals, lost shots 9-6 in 8:01
- The Kadri line scored on 97’s line in about four minutes of playing time.
- Darnell Nurse’s night mirrored McDavid’s, although the Kadri line burned him three times.
- Nuge-Draisaitl got a steady dose of Byram-Johnson and the MacKinnon plus Kadri lines.
Enough of the doom and gloom the crowd needs to get on these Refs early and often, don’t let up let’s will this team to a victory tonight. We have the best fans in the league it’s time to show what this City is made of.
When the Kings were up 3-2 and everybody was doom and gloom I posted here that there was a lack of imagination for how that series would end. I suggested we may very well be looking at games 6 and 7 in that series as watershed moments where the team learned how to dig in. I also suggested they could lose.
Same scenario. Oilers could drop two more at home and it would be an anticlimactic end to a season considered by most to have landed somewhere between decent and excellent. (For those of you who resent we aren’t 2 cups deep on a dynasty already I don’t know where you find peace.)
Or, the learning curve is just higher for these Avs, who have been the best team in the NHL all year. And the Oilers, demonstrating 21-22 as the year of the pupil, will put what they’ve learned to action and make a series of it.
What was it? 93% of teams who go down 2-0 in a conference final lose the series? How many of that 93% had Connor McDavid on their team? The answer is 0%.
Dare to imagine.
Thank you for this. The obituaries being written today are BS. Talking about how they’ve had a good run and about the season like it’s over is BS. Suck it up Buttercup. Game 3 tonight!
I’m not quite dead yet!
(I’m feeling much bettah)
I’m just happy we are still in it. Not in trouble until we lose at home. If we do lose the series, hey, its been a nice run, a successful year, culminating with eliminating the Shames from the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. That will be my highlight!
On a more critical note, one of the things I enjoy about watching Oiler playoff hockey, is seeing which players raise their game (or not). Especially the younger players. Who has playoff chops. I like seeing the answers to these questions. I don’t need to explain what I see, you all have eyes and a hockey mind.
Enjoy this run, and keep the faith!
I 100% agree. Watching Zach Hyman has been a delight. Man he’s strong on the puck.
Archibald doesn’t have a motor? Kassian isn’t a powerful skater? I’m hesitant to rank these guys so surely without seeing them on the ice together (like Woodcroft gets to).
I’m not saying Holloway isn’t those things either and he at least comes with more skill and hopefully more effect. I’ve seen a lot of Holloway play. I know what he brings. I’m just responding to the notion of adding Holloway simply because it would be adding more speed. I don’t think that’s a clear cut win, ie enough of a reason.
The coach needs to want to add skill over truculence and defensive experience. To me that’s the crux of the issue. I think Holloway has more hockey smarts too and for me that would be the biggest reason to put him in. But again do his smarts outweigh experience in the coach’s eyes? And can he bring what the he wants the 4th line to do?
See, I’d also prefer he be a step higher in the line up, because of his skill and smarts, but sadly L3 is the one line winning their match-up.
However if Yamamoto is sadly out…
We’ve both seen Holloway use that motor to be all over the puck, shift in and shift out, in all zones. Yes, Archie has a motor that he uses to run around the offensive zone looking for hits.
I haven’t seen much of Kass’ “powerful skating” in quite some time.
Really? He had a breakaway just the other night. Has been powering into guys all playoffs.
And with regards to Archie you simply raised the crux I’ve already pointed out.
Boy did they look foolish in both games. I wonder how much altitude factored in…?
Just took a quick look at the Nurse buyout. It’s a doozy.
While you actually get a negative cap hit on two of the first three years, the fourth isn’t too bad, then four years of a nine or ten million hit, then $2m per for the next 8 years.
Holland was a dufus for signing that contract. He would have been better off to walk Nurse and use the cap space.
He should not have reacted to Nurse’s offensive heater and waited a year before re-signing him
If Nurse was a UFA this offseason, what would he receive?
I would guess $8 million.
There is every chance (and I would argue a high probability) that was his career season.
So sick of watching them negotiate against themselves.
14.8 million for Nurse and Keith next year, talk about a kick in the nuts and we used to make fun of Mike Milbury.
He drove up Nurse’s salary by acquiring Keith which left the Hawks a shitload of money to sign comparable Seth Jones.
Yay hindsight bias.
I have a feeling it’s the Draisaitl injury or a fear of the Kadri line but the Oilers have really abandoned the unicorns that got them to the playoffs. I was floored to see Leon with Nuge last game. Nuge-Ryan crushed opposing 3rd lines for 20 games, to my eye. I think now, more than ever, this has to be attempted.
91-97-13
71-29-18
10-93-37
16-36
Fire 44 into the sun, send 15 packing.
Darnell is completely useless against their top 6. There’s a strong argument for not playing him at all as their Compher line is pretty quick. While Russell is quick and blocks shots, he’s a very incomplete player in a known way (that frankly isn’t good enough to play the Avs). I’d play
27-05
02-75
86-22
06
At this point, ManWood’s risk tolerance should be significantly higher than ever. 86 has the upside, better wheels than Russell, and should be better for possession (which really matters against the Avs). He can actually make an outlet pass. Blocked shots against this team are meaningless unless the puck reliably turns north.
Alleluia! However, yes much has to do with Leon’s injury. Brassard like Kassian is an ex NHLer. Can you believe the Rangers got Zibanejad from Ottawa for Brassard lol
Can you believe the Flyers got a 4rth from Holland for Brassard?
Holloway
It has been questioned by several people that Holloway is not ready for the NHL because he has the worst +/- on the team (-4 in 33 games, FWIW, Lagesson was -6 in 11 games). This number does not match the eye test, as he is consistently very responsible in his own end and I have watched almost all of his games over the past 3 seasons.
So I reviewed all the scoring plays in Bakersfield where he came out negative, as well as all the scoring plays from the playoffs.
Here are my notes on the goals against when he was on the ice:
1 – 2 on 1 goal, RHD side (Kemp at fault), DH not involved in the play.
2 – 2 on 1 SHG, RHD side, DH not involved in the play.
3 – Sceviour slow to cover slot, DH covering point, not involved in this play.
4 – ENG, DH in crease “playing goal”, shot from point, shot goes through covering forward and DH.
5 – ENG, shot from Ozone misses net, opponent beats Broberg to puck and scores with 1 second left on clock, DH not involved.
6 – Desharnais last man at blueline, turns over puck, opponent beats G coming in off R boards, DH not involved.
7 – SHG, DH races back to challenge shooter coming off of RH boards, puck goes thru Konovalov and sits behind him. Shooter and DH move to right of IK, DH goes behind net. Kaldis is back and closest to the goal, but gets beaten to puck by F2 who taps it in. Konovalov has no awareness of puck location. DH not at fault.
8 – DH not seen and 5 v 4 in Dzone, assume DH just came out of penalty box.
9 – Malone carries puck out across own blueline, weak pass behind DH intercepted. Puck carrier brings puck into zone, dekes Malone and Kaldis and then Skinner and Samorukov. DH not involved in this play.
10 – 3 on 2, DH is skating back hard to support Dman, opponent carrying puck at LW, attempts to pass across to open RW, but DH gets blade on puck, which goes back to passer. Skinner has moved over to cover R side, passer shoots into empty net. DH at fault for this one.
11 – Kemp carries puck out of Dzone, stripped by F1, F2 picks it up with speed and fires it through Kaldis and Skinner. DH not involved.
PLAYOFFS
1 – PK, Puck at Right point, DH challenges shooter, puck goes thru his feet and through Skinner. DH at fault, but Skinner should have stopped it, as it wasn’t screened or deflected.
2 – Desharnais on Left boards, lobs puck high to clear zone, defender jumps up to catch puck, DH was at mid-boards to support Dman. Defender whips diagonal pass to Podkolzin who 1 times it past Skinner. DH not at fault.
3 – Defenseman at mid-Left boards beats DH to puck and fires it at an unscreened Skinner. DH hits shooter as he releases puck. Desharnais puts blade on puck and it deflects past Skinner. Bad play by Vinnie, DH not at fault.
4 – Condors is chase mode in own zone, Desharnais follows puck carrier up Right boards. DH moves cover RD spot. Puck passed to blueliner who fires it on net, LW beats Broberg (who was covering no one) to rebound and deposits it into empty net. DH not involved.
5 – ENG, fired at Condors net from Ozone off a rebound. 2 seconds left in game. DH not involved in this play.
So as you can see, Holloway wasn’t really leaking chances. Many of the goals were Dman errors. Another issue was his lack of offense-producing linemates. Hamblin (21 goals in 64 games) and Schaller (10 goals in 67 games) to start his AHL experience, followed by Malone (14 goals in 52 games) and pro rookie Kambetz (7 goals in 52 games).
Needless to say I think Holloway is more than ready and his best game was his last game.
C’mon Woody!
That’s a wall of text that belies my grade six reading ability.
Still, I agree that we should play Holloway.
Way to drill into the details. You’ve clearly demonstrated how flawed a statistic plus/minus is. I wouldn’t question Holloway as likely NHL trial-worthy (at the least). I do think the NHL is by far the best league in the world and the next best league is quite a bit weaker. I’m not sure he could factor much and would simply hope that he could play without getting caved with such a short on-boarding (which is already an improvement on Kassian/Arch). Trial by fire.
I think the argument for playing DH is in fact not a question of his skills but the growing horrific body of evidence that is Archibald, with Kassian not being far behind. Is see DH as likely not possibly being worse. Need smart players with wheels playing right now. This is a skill and positioning series.
In his last 132 NHL games, Archibald has 20 goals; 13 of these were 3 seasons ago.
In his last 166 NHL games, Kassian has 25 goals; 15 of these were 3 seasons ago.
in his last 136 NHL games Shore has 15 goals; (5 goals per season).
In his last 184 NHL games, Brassard has 32 goals; 84 of these games and 20 of these goals were 3 seasons ago.
I think we can safely say that all of these players’ productive days are well behind them. Amongst all of them, plus Malone and Holloway, it is painfully obvious who has the best chance to be an actual difference maker in this series.
That is all.
I definitely agree. In part because down 2-zip, a team’s risk tolerance should rise significantly. Every player you mentioned there has a pretty well known upside, which isn’t all that much higher than their known baseline expectation. Holloway should be able to arrive somewhere near that baseline but will have way more upside. It’s actually rather simple, given this perspective imo.
Still, I think more significance should be given to the construction of the top 9. I think you have to try to have Leon drive his own line and resurrect the 10-93-37 line.
Woodcroft told you he had Archie and Kassian in the line-up to score?
I think you are expecting something different than he is.
My point being these players are expected, at minimum, to break even, because they can’t score anymore. As we know though, they are leaking goals, therefore they are only hurting the team when they play..
*Insert Mac T quote about players who can’t score.
I’ve shared this previously, but since most of you are Oilers fans, I thought it would be appropriate to share my buddy’s dilemma with you again, since most of you will understand where he’s coming from.
He managed to score some primo seats to the home games for the conference finals. He was really jacked up for it. In all of the confusion he didn’t realize that game three is on the same day as his wedding – so he can’t go.
If you’re interested and want to go instead of him, it’s at St. Joseph’s at 5:00PM tomorrow evening. Her name is Naomi. She’s 5’5″, about 125 lbs, great cook and makes about $130,000 a year. She will be the one in the white dress. Reception to follow.
Wins the internet today.
lol
Honest question. If the rangers win this game, then do the pundits put the Lightning in as dire straits as the Oilers?
They should. Math heavily favors the team up 2-0 in a series.
I was thinking About this. I’d take the Lightning to come back looong before the Oilers. While it makes me want to puke how even HNIC completely ignores the last Canadian team, the Oilers being counted out definitely seems fair.
I have mentioned a few times over the last few weeks that, with recent intel that Konovalov’s rights in the KHL had been traded, I’m presuming that the Oilers and the player will agree to terminate his contract and he’ll be heading back.
It seems like this will indeed be coming to fruition (P.S. Click the tweet if you want to read the actual quotes from the GM):
https://twitter.com/oilersaccess/status/1532788017789775872
The general manager of Dynamo Moscow in the KHL has said in an interview that they will sign Oilers goaltender prospect Ilya Konovalov once the Oilers season ends and his NHL contract is terminated. Nothing is done yet, but Alexey Sopin is confident Konovalov will sign.
Those rubles aren’t worth that much these days…. I’m actually surprised anyone would want to go there..
I guess it isn’t surprising, given his limited usage, but Ilya Konovalov is one and done, much like a few other recent Russian draft picks.
With Fanti added in the mix, this is not a huge blow, but the Condors could be a struggling team next season, with potentially many raw rookies on the roster. I would like to see Ken Appleby signed, if the play is Smith and Skinner next season.
It is nice to have prospect depth, but they need to play, while not constantly having to play in over their heads. Would love to see a trade for Max Gildon this off season and I would move Lavoie for him in a heartbeat.
I’ve never had the pleasure of Fabio, but his name brings back a memory for me.
If you live in BC or have been here in the last 30 years, there is a sportscaster named Squire Barnes, who used to be the nightly sports reporter for BCTV, which of course like anything else in Canada, is now Global (Fill in your city of province in the blank here). Met Squire a couple times at Indigenous hockey tourneys, which I imagine he was told about by Gino Odjick. Squire being the guy he is went to a couple to see what they were about.
If you’ve never met Squire Barnes, you need to know that he is a short little guy and not imposing at all. Super nice guy though and a great sports reporter.
Anyway, one night BCTV was doing a story about how the “Fabio” was in town for a visit and it was your nice little fluff piece in between talking about Jim Pattison’s latest effort to buy the whole province and the sports. As the feature ended and they panned out to Ted Chernicki and Squire Barnes, Ted proclaimed, “And up next with the sports, Fabio’s twin brother, Squire Barnes!”
This is not funny to anyone but me, but I just had to get it out there.
The way to protect the Oilers D is to cycle the puck in the opposition end. The 3rd line is doing a pretty good job at it. With Hyman and Kane, McDavid’s line should be able to do a pretty good job. Put Nugent-Hopkins between Holloway and Draisaitl on the 2nd line, and that line should be able to do a pretty good job.
For the Oilers to win, McDavid has to play against his natural tendency to play for the rush chance. Carry or dump the puck in and cycle Makar and Toews with his two big wingers.
The Avalanche aren’t giving him clean air anyways.
The Oilers are not good enough on D yet to win a track meet with the Avalanche, not with Nurse hobbled.
You think Nuge can come out ahead or even against McKinnon or Kadri?
I have him with Draisaitl. It is a three centre line. Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t have to take the draws. The Oilers can be extremely agressive on the draws. I signal Draisaitl as a winger to compensate for his injury.
I’d be fine with Kane McDavid Draisaitl || Holloway Nugent-Hopkins Hyman also.
The Avs weakness is their defense down low so I agree they need get the puck deep and keep it there, the difficulty lies in the fact that when they have Makar and Byram on the ice, which is the vast majority of the time, those guys are really quick to pucks so if you just dump it without thought they will get to the puck first and transition the other way really fast. So you either need to be smart with your dump ins or try to carry it in.
If the Avs commit to their backcheck the way they did last night the latter will be tricky so the Oilers need to be sharp in transition and through the neutral zone.
Last night their passing just wasn’t good enough, while Keith overall had an ok game, he had too many flat out missed passes moving up ice, Nurse was dreadful and Ceci is killing himself trying to cover for an injured Nurse.
And most forwards had a real hard time finding good lanes both skating and passing, too much straight lines not enough creativity. When the Oil find their passing game it usually means more open ice for McDrai which means fun times for us.
Avs transition game on the other hand is amazing and the absolute main strength of their team. They’re also scary once they start moving around in the o-zone and they did a good job backchecking last night which makes entries tough but as I mentioned once in their zone they look pretty weak, both their D and C group outside of a select few are so so positionally and the same goes for board battles really. That’s something you can exploit.
The only forward line that played the Avs the right way last night was the McLeod line with Foegle and Puljujärvi, they did a good job on the forecheck but didn’t sell out, always had one forward high and if the forecheck failed they stayed on top of the Avs through the neutral zone.
You have to be smart with your forecheck because the Avs quickness in transition will create odd man rushes otherwise. That’s why I don’t think you can play both Archibald and Kassian in this series, their iffy positioning is murder, one in limited minutes with a clear order to be extremely physical maybe but not the both of them.
I honestly don’t think Nurse should play at all unless he magically heals up, his lateral movement and agility is completely dead which turns him into a liability. And it’s gotten worse with every game. I get that he’s a key guy and the whole Stanley Cup warrior thing but he’s a mess out there.
Nice one Swedish
I agree all round. Especially Nurse. Maybe he can return if miraculously they advance
But right now against this team he isn’t better than say Russell. Rusty isn’t that fast but also isn’t slow, and knows how to suppress which is exactly what’s missing
Also agreed on the 4th liners. Are they more helpful than Shore who can be sound just because they’re faster?
Part if why the Avs look so fast and the Oilers slow is the Oilers aren’t able to find they’re game. They kept up fine before in the previous meetings
Move Kulak up, don’t use the 4th line or change the players. Maybe go Kulak Ceci Keith Barrie and Rusty Bouch to settle things down
Not ideal but the roster is what it is and what their doing obviously isn’t working
Bang on!
The inconvenient truth that no one will admit is that the unfortunate selections of a Holloway and Broberg are part of the current problem.
If we had Zegras and Mercer, the Avs would be toast.
I agree with this approach. Also, heavy back pressure and trapping to slow down their transition game. And stop going for high risk plays. The Avs feast on odd man rushes so stop giving them easy ones. They will lose if they want to run and gun and lose positioning. Trap and cycle; get a bit greasier around the crease area, too.
Even though I’m sure many real people have the name Fabio Roberto, whenever I see your handle posted here it just sounds SO Italian that I imagine you speaking English like this song (which is nonsense sounds designed to sound English).
Wish I had a cool name like that instead of generic dime-a-dozen British first, middle, last. I f someone calls my name in a crowd in Canada, 10 people turn around.
May as well be bigus dickus.
As expected.
Nurse is now overpaid again for a contract that hasn’t started, AA for 2 2nds worst deal of all time, unless our GM is robbing people blind he sucks. Even some boo birds for Woody. The troll’s 5th team is miles ahead of the Oilers but in my opinion we suck because our goalie doesn’t stop pucks with his bare hands. Even seeing a competing troll which is a fascinating wrinkle, finally some competition in the lineup!
Surprised Benson hasn’t been mentioned.
Conference final is the furthest this team has come since I was in low grade school I’m happy as a clam with how far they’ve come. And it’s only 2 games, man it’s fast how quickly some people turn back to negative.
I was born with the Oiler suck, molded by it, why I haven’t seen them look like a contender since I was a man. I’m enjoying every minute of it and enjoy the discussions about tactics for the series or how to improve for next game, not that we didn’t get Devon Toews for a song. 29 other teams didn’t either and Joe+co have still won nothing.
Same troll, different handle.
I think everyone here knew the Oilers were in tough against the Avs, who are 1-2 years ahead in their developmental timeline and peaking at the right time. Nurse being injured with something that will likely require off-season surgical repair makes it that much more unlikely that this iteration of our team was going to advance much further.
But next year our young guys will be playoff hardened and still cheap. Nurse healthy again with something to prove, and our coaching staff which have done so much will so little time, will be able to implement a fully realized version of their system.
OTOH – the Avs are at the end of their reign. Next year they come back to the pack, as their cheap contracts get too expensive. Kadri, Burakowsky, Nichushkin, Manson and Kuemper all need new deals, and MacK comes off his team friendly deal the season after and will want Tavares money.
This is just the start of our team’s window of contention.
You’re underestimating what Sakic can do with $25 million in free cap space.
Sure, he has a lot of work to do but he has zero dead cap and that delicious top 4 D is all locked up on bargain contracts.
I would think that with the emergence of Bo Byram he will likely move on from Sam Girard and free up another $5 million while finding another undervalued roster bargain.
Its what he does.
They’ll sort it out for sure they’re smart. Smarter than our guys
If Holland by some miracle gets smarter I don’t think the Avs are on top of the Oilers next season
Healthy Oilers this season are all the Avs can handle, and the Oilers roster isn’t as complete as theirs. Bro and Holloway alone by next season’s end are going to make the Oilers much harder to play, less soft spots
Holland may find more upgrades as well
Book it!
Wise to remember the Avalanche are also missing a top 6 forward, a top 4 D and their starting goaltender.
I also under reported Colorado’s cap space.
Its actually 27 million and, if they trade Girard, that leaps to $32 million.
it will be fascinating to see what Sakic has up his sleeve.
Goalie? I know Holland was in a pickle with the 4.5 million paid to Mikko but it needs to be addressed. There’s Goaltenders available you need to find one that meshes with our style of play. That’s where analytics come into play.
It isn’t that Mike Smith is the villain.
It’s that he’s never the hero.
Championship goalies wear capes from time to time.
Isn’t he the guy who posted a shutout in Game 7 a while back?
Smith has been fine, but was he really a hero in that game? NHL goalies should make several excellent, goal saving stops per game. That’s the expectation, I don’t think it earns you hero status. That was also 7 games and two series ago, that’s a lifetime in the playoffs.
Your point being?
I’d say I’m sure you’re not going to argue the Oilers didn’t dominate that hockey game…but who knows.
Goaltending is not the issue when you don’t score lol
So you are saying defense is not the issue when you don’t score?
You have gotten to the conference final with Smith. How is Smith the issue? They had close to 40 shots on him last night and held the fort in the first. Otherwise, they lose 6-7 nothing
Oilers are in the final 4, cry more.
It can be as bad goals can deflate teams and create energy and momentum for the opposition.
We don’t know how the flow of the game goes if Smith stop the Manson shot.
They were never in the game after the first.
and, if the 2nd goal by Manson doesn’t go in 15 seconds later, we have no idea how the game would have flowed.
Mike Smith isn’t the problem. Koskinnen is the issue. No one trusts him to start a game. I said it the first round and the second round, failing to address the goaltending issue was a massive fail by the GM.
Because Mike Smith has started games so well? Outside of his hot streak, he’s been more prone to multiple goals in the first handful of shots than Koskinen (in both regular season and playoffs). I don’t know who I’d start tomorrow, but I really don’t think Smith has been great. He’s had his moments, but seems to give up at least one weak one per game. He wasn’t the biggest issue last night, but the Manson goal was a back breaker IMO. And he’s so deep in his net that pucks don’t hit him, it seems to make him even more vulnerable to tips and deflections. I’m no goalie expert, but my preference is quieter goalies who make themselves big and stay square to the puck. Better for my heart ha ha.
Agreed
And the D group he assembled. Completely hinging on Nurse being superhuman
The guy gets a serious injury on a nothing play. Coincidence or body fatigue?
If it comes out Connor is banged up as well and it’s related to his new found love of hitting, I’ll have to ban myself from Lowetide for a while
It is one of the stupidest things ever. Yes he’s the captain, but he’s also the world’s best player. And he is not built for it, he’s still listed below 195 and at his height he is not a sturdy build
You don’t have every guy doing every thing. It’s a team, and that is why balance is so important, because you need some bangers and they should not be the skill guys, because you need them healthy, and they get hit enough being the skill guys
It’s different if your Eric Lindros or Messier, but Lindros lost his career over a hit, which was payback for all the hitting he did
Not that anyone should shy away or not finish checks, but Connor has been looking for them and that’s not his game
Leon as well. He started throwing his weight around, he isn’t used to it, and he’s been physically messed ever since that started. Yes it’s his ankle, but is it coincidence or did his back and shoulders bugging him lead to not dealing with the tackle as he might have and avoiding the awkward fall?
If the pluggers won’t hit, fire them into the sun. That’s their job. Connor doesn’t need to lead that charge even if he’s finishing checks. If they’re too small or vanilla, get the players you need to balance the roster
Nurse has been amazingly durable his entire career – not missing a game with injury in between his rookie season and this season.
He averaged less TOI/G this season then last – I don’t think his TOI was a contributor to either injury this season.
McDavid is a better overall player with the physicality in his game. No, I don’t need him blowing up players but his physicality in puck retrieval is insane and massive
If there is going to be a forward (or two) added to the lineup, and there may be, while many (most) think that Holloway should be the first choice given his speed and type of game he plays, do we think that the coaching staff will put Holloway in over Shore or even Brassard.
I am in favor of Holloway in. Yes, I’m guarded in posting on how much of an impact he WILL make. He could made a big impact but its no certainty.
With that said, I’m not so sure the coaching staff is going to insert Holloway over the vets. I hope they do but I’m not so sure they will.
I agree they probably will not.
When you adding a guy from the bench to the bottom of the line up, you are unlikely to get a skill boost. Otherwise that guy would already be in.
You likely get an energy boost. Everybody waiting in the wings would be vibrating to get a shot and give it full effort.
I favor Holloway as he can provide that, PLUS speed. He might also provide a phycological boost. Maybe. He might also make mistakes, there is risk.
Id go with Holloway, I think his energy might be infectious. Certainly Woody knows the plays and what element he needs the most.
I would posit that Holloway would be a skill boost over, at least a few, in the bottom six.
Very important not to place too many expectations on the kid.
Holloway isn’t materially faster than Archie or Kass, so I don’t think putting him is really adding any foot speed.
He is faster than Brassard, however and I couldn’t, if I was coach, insert Brass over Holls.
The organization would much rather Holloway be placed in a position to succeed, but Yamamoto or even just the two losses may force their hand.
So long as he can top Samorukovs’ debut. ooh, poor kid
I would say that Holloway is a better skater than both Kassian and Holloway – maybe not “outright speed” but he’s a more powerful skater and a more agile skater and his motor amplifies his skating.
Kassian and Archibald? Agreed. Holloway was outstanding in the AHL, save for the offense and we’ll have to wait and see.
Yup, we’ll have to wait and see. I will posit that, given how much different he looked when he came back from the 3-4 weeks off with the thigh (we think) issue, how he was now willing to shoot and looking for his shot, it shows how limited he was for the first few months where he rarely shot and definitely was not looking to shoot.
His “box-cars” might be lower due to his limitations to start the season.
They don’t need speed and energy, they need players that are sound positionally and can win their battles
If the team plays as a group and plays their system well, instead of solo efforts and no support, they’re fast enough
It is weak positional play and poor reads that are gifting goals and killing them. As always when they can’t get it together
OK, well, I was simply responding to posts regarding (1) his skating, (2) his skill and (3) his AHL box-cars.
With respect to your post, both Archie and Kass and (1) poor in battle and (2) poor positionally.
Watching Holloway in Wisconsin and the AHL, battles are a high skill of his. Of course, battling against NHL players is different but that is something in his tool-box.
What a ride this spring has been, rising up with Woodcroft, overtaking LA for second spot in the Pacific, coming back to beat LA in 7 and watching Drai and McD set NHL records. Taking out Calgary in 5 games and getting further than anyone expected has been glorious.
The last 2 games have been tough but looking in the rear view mirror really puts things into perspective.
With the Oilers dropping games one and two, the resident troll is back in full force. Time to take a break from the comment section. It’s nice knowing our team has surpassed his numerous horses in the race (Vegas, Cgy, LA and Vancouver) though we’ll see what comes of this series. Only a man of zero integrity cheers for 5 different teams, including the best team in the league, and then brags about it. Who knows, maybe his curse will work one more time this season.
Awesome post Billy!
The trolls have reproduced, asexually of course.
I find it easier just to skip over their comments – they add little to the real discourse.
I’m really happy with this season, too. Fantastic progress which nobody can deny.
Great post! As far as the Flames and Leafs go, I cheer for any of 30 other teams. But I don’t go to their sites/blogs. Ever. It’s such a waste of time. That’s really it right there. Devoting significant time to that action is what’s bonkers to me.
Goilers. Can’t wait until you return to the comment section, Billy.
Friedman reporting that “blind side” was removed from the rulebook a few years ago
Man he must be really in deep with them. Hes going full Dreger.
His suckholing is getting tiresome we all expect it from Hrudey and McLame but Friedman has gone full court press shitting on the Oilers. Hopefully Beiska will straighten these goofs out. I like Jenn but they slough her off way to easily.
So… blindsiding is fair game…?
Yes. This is one of the NHL’s sacred mysteries, meant to be hidden from the public by the Oracle of New York, like the Holy Sacrament of Offside. Do with this sacred knowledge what good you will.
There are two main things I don’t understand as far as deployment goes:
1) while Keith’s minutes are up to take some pressure off Nurse, I’m not sure why the massive reluctance to simply swap Nurse and Kulak given levels of play and Kulak’s recent success with Ceci in tough minutes when Nurse has been out. It seems like a no-brainer but its almost like the coaching staff thinks that Nurse is going to get healthier and better in real time.
2) Putting out the fourth line after a goal against. Woody was asked about the team’s recent issues with giving up goals in bunches (and goals right after scoring). Woody talked about the importance of the next shift and focus on winning the faceoff and getting on the forecheck. I presume he thinks Ryan has good chance of winning the faceoff and, sure, but, at the same time, that 4th line has not shown any ability to “establish the forecheck”.
Nurse is one of the top undisputed leaders of this team. He is leading the defence corps, and is a critical part of the core. Im not worried about his extra bucks.
The defence needed rebuilt in a hurry. At one point it was setting up as outstanding. First it was Sekera then the other dominoes Klefbom and Larson fell. Everything had to be built around Nurse.
Russel – extended
Barrie – new contract
Ceci – acquired
Keith – acquired (Nurse is 27y and the leader. Needed more talent over leadership)
Koekkoek – found wanting
Kulak – presently the best Oilers d man
Bouchard – flashes of great and not so great
They have done well all things considered. This playoffs allows further evaluation because in the summer this d core need to get better.
Nurse – ______
Kulak – Ceci
_____ – ________
This is all I would have on the Whiteboard as sure things.
Bouch has been growing by the game. He’s in my top 6, possibly 4. Looking like a Leon coming out party ala 2016-17.
Kulak is a good player and I like his mobility
The problem to me is that all the D outside of Nurse aren’t physical. Niems is a banger but may not even make it. He’s not there yet with the hockey side
The only reason Toews Makar works is Makar is elite and will play D and doesn’t avoid contact
Their other pairs they try to balance skill/speed with size
So what then? Nurse can offset a skill guy. Kulak can offset a size guy. Bouch needs a size guy. Bro needs a size guy. And he’ll make the team. Keith needs a size guy. Barrie needs a size guy
Nurse Bouch
Kulak Ceci
Keith Bro
Nurse Bro
Keith Ceci
Bro Bouch
I like the first better
In my past travels, I met Tyson Barrie’s grandpa, Len Barrie Sr. He was a mentor for us coaches at the Advanced Level 1 program, and boy what a wealth of knowledge. When he met you, he’d ask you who your favorite NHL team was, and then he would proceed to ask you the most obscure trivia questions about your team, Once he got that out of the way, he’d fill your brain with so much coaching knowledge and technical expertise, that it took you the better part of a night to process it all. Wonderful guy. I believe he had a background in teaching and it showed. I imagine he had a slight influence on his grandson who now wears #22 for the Oilers. The biggest takeaway I got from those meetings was that in order to teach and lead, you have to bring people to their place where they learn best, which is often relaxed and open.
What do I see with the Oilers right now? A team that looks anxious and exhausted. A team that would like to play better, but simply cannot due to exhaustion and anxiousness. Those 2 minutes and 4 seconds took the wind out of them and it was a mental wall they didn’t overcome. It was hard to watch and I’m sure the coaching staff were trying their best to get them over that hump, but some games you can only watch. Having said that, I thought it was questionable to put the 4th line out after that 1st goal and to leave Nurse out there.
So that begs the question, what are you going to do Saturday with a banged up lineup, possibly no Yamamoto and your #1 D obviously hurting? Bednar is exploiting Nurse right now. He knows he’s hurt and he knows direction change is not his friend right now.
For Woodcroft, I would suggest he do a reset mentally with the team. Go for lunch with the team after practice today, very casual, and no structure with the idea that we need to get together as a team today because the reality is that once the season is over, this group will never be together again. Free agency, trades, retirements, etc. What will your legacy be?
Sometimes that helps, sometimes it doesn’t. Teams go through cycles and part of your yearly plan is to plan in macro and micro cycles and hope your team is in the peaks at the right time. Right now, to me, it looks like the bottom of a cycle and it’s time for a reset.
Having said that, this has been a great season so far and many lessons and steps have been taken. It’s been all gravy for me since Game 7 of the first round.
Go Oilers!
You can certainly see or even feel that anxiety. In the Calgary series it was present as well to start, then it seemed to evaporate in game two second period. They realized they were the better team and owned the games after that.
I can see the Oilers beating themselves over the last two games. They are not feeling confident, they look apprehensive and they look like a worse team across the board.
Sometimes adding a rookie who skates like its his first NHL game and doesn’t even know what he doesn’t know. It can be invigorating, revitalizing.
It’s a travel day.
Exhausted.
Our last series only went 5 games.
4 Full days off in between.
As an aside, the New York Rangers played 7 games in round 1 and 7 games
in round 2.
They would / will get wiped by Colorado too
They have the better Goalie by a mile.
The Rangers may be on a different cycle and heading towards a peak. A week from now, things may be different. Even the best laid plans go out the toilet.
Just went through the presser and I don’t believe a single reporter asked Jay about whether Yamamoto would be available for the next game.
Could you imagine getting paid to be incompetent. Never mind the injury status of Yamo whose being playing the best hockey of his career but where’s the questions about the cheap shot by Landeskog. The Sportsnet Avalanche panel didn’t even bring it up McLame. Hrudey and Friedman all orgasming over the Aves. Between the press and the sneaky dirty drama queens Aves this could be a real rallying point for Woody and the Oil.
Jay was asked about Yamo’s status last night and he was also expressly asked about Landeskog’s hit and spoke to it.
Perhaps, if you are going to call out the media, maybe make a point of actually listening the media avails?
Why was it not brought up in between the 1st and the 2nd period instead they attacked the Oilers with the narrative that the Oilers are playing on the edge of being dirty. The penalties were 3-0 in the first period with a 5on 3 for over a minute 1:30. Why did the offside call stand they never did give a adult explanation. Friedman and McLame explanations were like they were talking to some rednecks from Nebraska that just started following the game.
I couldn’t care less about what they speak about in between periods – I know you put MASSIVE weight on that, for some reason.
I was responding to your point bashing the media as incompetent for not asking a question about something when they did exactly that – asked the question and got a detailed answer.
Bashing while being uninformed.
The Referees can be influenced by the media and the crowd this is not new. There are certain Coaches and G.M’s that seem to always get the 50/50 calls even the 40/60 calls. I find the psychological warfare in a series by the Coaches, G.M’s Players etc as interesting obviously you don’t.
As I’ve stated numerous times, I don’t think Kelly Hrudey’s opinion makes one single iota of difference to how a referee calls a game on the ice.
Also what does Yamo status which we all know the Coach is going to give the standard answer that he hasn’t been fully evaluated last night have to do with today?
Here’s hoping for a great turnaround
But I fear that the lack of mobility and size on D is coming home to roost
Sakic addressed this for them guys. Either big and defend the house or highly mobile and skilled
Holland is stuck somewhere in the middle of that
A full season for Bro will help, healthy Nurse. Ceci is pretty good
Also time to find some depth players that can skate, will play responsibly, and aren’t mostly puck averse
Connor needs open air, or maybe have his teammates support the play more and use them
He and Leon still force plays and try to win with hero plays
Even for them such things rarely work
Connor trying to outskate Makar is pointless. Bait and trick him. Pass off and peel to an open spot
But it takes support and they’ve been put off their game. Hunker down, play the system with energy, be patient, and replace or reduce in effective players
They need hitting less than stability. Kassian is a liability defensively and there’s no room for that at this point of competition
The A s have a lot of disappointments under their belts and that makes them look a lot better than the oilers
Any time you’re way off your game the team looks slow and the other impossibly fast. They’re fast but it’s a flow of play problem mostly to me
I believe it was last year where Kassian absolutely destroyed Nathan on the railway tracks with a clean hit. We need something along those lines to get back the momentum we had going against Calgary. I’ve been asking to give Holloway a opportunity for awhile now, could he be the spark this team needs tomorrow night.
I think Kassian is playing injured. (Still, having said that, Dude has to go in the offseason.)
If he is, Kassian at 80% is not better than Shore.
One of the many things I like about Jay Woodcroft.
The Dude is brimming with intensity and energy; And yet, he maintains his composure and chooses his words “wisely”.
#LeadByExample
#StartAsYouMeanToGo
What worries me the most?
The look on Joe Sakic’s face every time the camera pans to him. Supremely confident.
Like “everything” is going according to the plan.
#JoeKnowsSomething
As opposed to Ken Holland who is on the edge of his seat and who erupts with emotion every time something goes our way.
#KennyKnowsSomethingToo
Joe Sakic as gm turned a bottom feeder into a contender with absolute steals through trades and free agency.
And it only took him 10 years and twice they finished basically last in the west and have until this season, not made it pst R2. I guess that’s what makes a god nowadays. Back in the day it took more than that.
Back in the day there was no salary cap. He started with McKinnon and added bit by bit and if I am not mistaken discarded Duchene and O’Reilly.
You mean O’Reilly who has actually won a Stanley Cup? I think Ryan is pretty happy with his lot in life.
He has turned the team in to a contender but, of course, it took a decade (and the team got worse under him for a few years) and he inherited a recent 2nd overall, drafted 1st overall once, 4th overall twice and 10th overall twice.
There was lots of failure and draft help in that decade.
Full credit to Sakic for various recent moves.
Concur.
HH is that you ?
An interesting discussion this morning on the Jeff Marek show.
Elliotte Friedman pointed to the example of Colorado picking up Nicolas Aube-Kubel on waivers from Philadelphia.
Friedman indicated that Sakic/Spriggings seem to have a list of players who they know will fit in on their team seamlessly and exploit the inefficiencies of other teams player assessment capabilities.
Kadri, Devon Toews and Sam Girard also examples of this.
Well, there’s no question that Sakic/Spriggings are far more efficient managers than Holland.
The examples are endless as I’ve delved into this in the past.
Holland trades two seconds for Athansiou who is so bad defensively, he’s basically paying two seconds for a player that had negative value.
A few months later, Sakic grabs a top-pairing defender, Toews for the same price. Towes was an analytics darling that multiple people on Twitter predicted would be a cap casualty for Lamoriello months in advance.
When Holland traded two seconds for AA, while knowing about Klefbom’s injuries, did even have the wherewithal to know Toews was soon to be available and an huge upgrade for the blue line?
The Athanasiou trade was a bad one, but he was hurt I believe two games into his time with Edmonton. Not much of a defense for certain, but worth noting.
AA was also sporting a shiny -45 in 45 games. Second worst on the DRW, Filuppa had -42 in 70 games.
AA was having his worst season in the NHL and probably was dealing with multiple injuries. The outcome was extremely unsurprising, Holland, who knew the player very well, absolutely owns this debacle. As we know, hope isn’t a strategy for success, but is a strategy frequently wielded by many experienced GMs.
Plus minus doesn’t sway me. AA relative to DRW linemates that season was a little above average in expected goals, and I do think there would have been an effort to sign him if things went well.
They went poorly and the pandemic ruined the cap. I see it as being an overpay, and Holland absolutely should avoid acquiring his old players (he won’t) but AA as a player had and has value.
Another recent example is the acquisition of Arturri Lehkonen from Montreal.,
While he gave up a very good D prospect in Justin Barron and a second, Lehkonen has been a perfect fit in the Colorado top 6… 5 goals and 8 points in 12 playoff games.
Then he goes out and signs Ben Meyers the most sought after NCCA free agent.
https://theathletic.com/news/avalanche-ben-meyers-signing/7ro76jo1zyoi/
It just never stops.
Yet still it took him 10 years to get past R2.
Oh, and it took 9 years for Mackinnon to get to the third round.
Factually false.
Sakic was appointed as VP of Hockey Operations in 2013 in a messy situation with the existing GM and Patrick Roy also having a voice in player evaluation and procurement.
Sakic was officially appointed GM in the summer of 2014 while existing GM was demoted to Assistant GM.
He’s now finishing his 8th season as GM.
On May 10, 2013, the Avalanche promoted Sakic to Executive Vice President of Hockey Operations. In this expanded role, Sakic has the final say on all matters regarding hockey personnel.[83] During Patrick Roy’s time as head coach, they shared most of the duties normally held by a general manager. General Manager Greg Sherman remained in his post, but served mainly in an advisory role to Roy and Sakic. This de facto arrangement was formalized the following season, when Sakic was formally named general manager and Sherman was demoted to assistant general manager.
Lots of talk about credit for Ken Holland. Yes of course. But hes open to being better as well.
He is so dam committed to “his guys” and getting “his guys” up and running, (Archibald) it blinds him to seeing improvement.
I once stated he only shops from what’s available. A poster stated “huh”, “where is he supposed to shop?”
Try following Sakic. His list of wants and needs should be in place well before trade deadlines. Go looking, be proactive, make the calls. Don’t wait and pick from whats available. Because most of the time, the best deals are done in the backroom.
For the record, I love Kulak, but that is different from picking up particularly Toews and Girard.
Bingo!
If you cap yourself out with the obvious guys you can’t get the cap efficient guys if you could even find them without an analytics dept
Because they aren’t in the Guide and Record Book
Yup, the 10-year plan.
Sakic has built an elite cup contending team but its taken him 10 years and, in that time, he has had 1st overall picks and multiple top 5 and top 10 picks.
Kudos for sure but its taken a decade to get here.
Just for accuracy (given false facts posted), Sakic was appointed GM in the spring of 2013 and he was in the front office for 10 years including executive vice-president of hockey ops for the prior 8 years.
I think he fell for the skill mainly and size doesn’t matter narrative, maybe toss a goon in for cover, and like Tampa found out different
Takes time to correct
The Oilers are so close to a truly balanced roster it’s killing me. But denseness reigns
When you calculate the value of Darnell Nurse, just remember how much his injury is costing us.
#CoreInjury
#Don’tKnowWhatYou’veGotTillIt’sGone
You’re right; I think the consensus is that Nurse is a valuable top 4 guy who skates well and adds toughness. He is also a leader on the team and is popular with the core guys.
However, next year he is definitely being paid as an elite #1 D. I think people can talk all day long about why that is and how it got to that point, but that is a tough pill to swallow in a cap world.
I’m not sure it needs to be a tough pill to swallow. If he scores 15 goals and gets 40 assists next year under a full year of woodcroft and his system would you qualify that as bitter?
i don’t think that scenario is beyond the realm of possibility.
I get you. He will be overpaid. But there are mitigating circumstances that help me keep things in perspective.
1) We have been riding Nurse hard for the past few seasons on a “value contract”. If you average these saving into his new contract it brings the price down by about $750,000 per year.
2) I believe that with the sudden and unexpected departure of Adam Larsson, Nurse was called upon to play a more defensive style game; to forego some offense in the name of defense. For better or for worse, he did what he was asked to do. ( if you don’t believe in altruism, perhaps he did so because he could afford too? He could afford to forego the points that many Dmen get paid for… because he already got paid)
3) If you take the AVV for Nurse – Ceci combined for the next two seasons, $12.5m, That is in the range of normal for a top pairing. That is how things work in the cap era; Sometimes you over-pay; Sometimes you get a deal; If you’re lucky things average out.
Hes not popular with Core guys, he is THE core guy.
Of course it is not idea, but I have zero complaints about next years’ salary.
Nurse is also getting that salary because he was underpaid on his current contract and due to cap mismanagement by a previous GM. In the end loyal players will get generally rewarded handsomely.
I think it’s important to remember Nurse had 16 pts in his first 20 games, got hurt and then had 10 pts in the next 50 games. He’s not an offensive dman, but he has very much contributed to offense his entire career. I think it’s fair to say this has been a tough season for him. He might not be worth $9 mill, but he’s an exceptional dman.
The two Dudes who impressed me “head and shoulders” above the crowd in my limited viewings of Memorial Cups in the last 7 or 8 years or so….
Leon Draisaitl
Darnell Nurse
SOOO happy to have Two Studs in the stable.
Thank You Craig MacTavish! I LOVE You Man!
And both of them are injured. It’s a big damn deal.
Agree. He’s not close to what he is at full health.
The Loss was not Mike Smith’s fault; but IMO average or below average goaltending won’t fly if Edm is to beat the Avs.
Edm goalie will have to steal at least 1 game and not give up any softies – the Avs are just too good.
Win Game 3 and who knows !!! But to do that we need ABOVE AVERAGE GOALTENDING
#SoupAnyone?
Just yesterday Lowetide mentions how the comments section has elevated of late and seems pleased with this.. then last night Fabio shows up…
Hahaha
To be fair, his comments on TikTok are absolute ‘fyre.’
fyre? as in the festival? lots of hype and little substance? that’s a propos!
Yeah. I think he was more commenting on how Randle hadn’t posted in a few days. 🙂
This series is like the the 1982-83 Cup Final.
#TrainingDay
Not sure I would compare the Avalanche to a dynasty like the Islanders. Avs are good but they have some proving of their own to do. This series is far from over.
Agreed about the NYI Avalanche comparison.
But I do think the AV’s are schooling us, like the Islanders did.
#LessonsLearned?
I hope at home the Oilers will get a bit more physical! Even through Kass on the mcdavid line to create havoc and space.
Hoping for at least a 6 game series 🙏
Cue Olivia Newton-John’s classic song..
My favorite gaol of the playoffs so far…..Ryan Nugent Hopkins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH0ResV40PI
My most pleasant surprises in this years playoffs to date:
1) Connor’s Spinal Tap level 11
2) Oilers in 5
3) Brett Kulak
I would consider winning the BOA in 5 games to be a surprise too. I think it will be remembered more prominently than level 11 even as spinal tap will provide more highlights
One of the biggest challenges a HC will face is demoting one of his ‘core’ when performance and/or injury merits the move down the depth chart.
Coming off the Calgary upset and his newfound job security, Woodcroft may be thinking he can’t publicly embarrass Nurse when he’ll need his buy-in next season and beyond. This would be a miscalculation.
Nurse is embarrassing himself with his play and not only should he be accepting a reduced role but suggesting it to help the team. These WC Finals berths don’t come around often.
Moreover, Nurse will not need the HC to motivate him next season. Coming off a one season heater of offensive production, Nurse sought a contract that pays him more than Josi, Makar, Hedman, Carlson, Pietrangelo, etc. In this market, that puts a target on his back. Nurse has to elevate to meet the expectations of the deal he negotiated or this will be a very long 8 years.
And for Holland and the other GMs around the league, if it looks, smells and tastes like a boat anchor, it probably is. What the hell are you guys thinking? Honestly the stuff that passes for management best practices in the NHL is appalling.
Holland was dealt two Aces and a Jack and decided to push his chips all in when TBay and Col are both sitting there with trips. Now as Oiler fans, we’re left hoping like hell that Broberg is that Ace on the river to salvage this bungle.
Keep dreaming my friend. It’s not happening:)
Amazing insights. I can tell you really put a lot of thought into that.
I am siding with you. Completely agree on your points. You misunderstood.
One-season heater, huh?
Over the past 5 seasons 2017-22, Nurse ranks 9th among NHL d-men in EVG & 8th in EVP.
Not disputing Nurse has been a consistent 5v5 producer but he picked an extremely fortuitous time to have a career season offensively. Fair?
I think we could all agree that he’s not an elite Dman on the power play. That is what separates him from the likes of Josi, Makar, Carlson, etc.
Nurse also makes a LOT of coverage errors for an alleged shutdown 1D imo.
Bruce if I offered you Makar, Carlson, Josi,or Pietrangelo for Nurse are you going to tell me you would not make that deal?
Is there an offer out there? There is not, its irrelevant conversation.
That deal would never be tabled by the opposing gm to begin with:)
I’d like to see Makar (or any other supposedly elite D) play with the scrubs Nurse has had to play with.
Is Ceci or Bear or Barrie or Bouchard or Larsson playing on a #1 pair anywhere else in the league?
Yup, Nurse has been an elite offensive d-man at 5 on 5 for years now. Yes, of course, much of that is McDavid minutes (but the 5 on 5 production of all top d-men are largely due to deployment with top forwards).
Nurse was indeed on a goal-heater last season which we all knew (and Holland knew) wasn’t going to sustain.
Nurse is, without a doubt, a #1 d-man in the NHL – he may even be top 15, probably around there somewhere.
Yes, $9.25MM is almost undoubtably a bit of an overpay but, really, not much more than $1MM or so for what he brings, each and every night.
We are seeing right now how much it hurts the team when he’s not his healthy self.
I’m not saying the Oilers win one of the last two games if Nurse is 100% but, you know what, they very well may have.
Nurse is the 2nd or 3rd most important player on the team and part of the long-term core, leadership group, etc.
I’d prefer the contract was AAV of $7.75MM but it isn’t – doesn’t make him not hugely important to team success – as we are seeing.
The team has to come first
I doubt anybody’s ego is a problem
Players that are doing better need to play more prominent roles
If they recover from this there is time later to help more if possible
But it’s team first if winning is the goal
Shake up the pairs and get those forwards skating and checking hard, like the opponent
And protect the house first, then you don’t have to chase games so hard. And the goalies play better as a bonus
Kass fined $2500 for the Byram helmet grab.
Im not sure I recall a fine for less than the nominal max fine.
Well he made me smile; at least some entertainment provided for his 2500 bucks.
Kassian fined $2500 for pulling off Byram’s helmet while sitting on the bench.
Was actually a good penalty considering Byram retaliated and went off with him.
That was a great penalty
We want Byram off in exchange for Kass and we should want 4v4
I thought that was a favorable call for the Oil. Byram didn’t do much more than defend himself.
Of course by then the refs owed the Oilers a call or twelve.
Yes, I agree the Oilers were lucky to get the even up, just saying the even-up worked out in the Oilers favor.
Kassian holding him was annoying and insulting and could easily have been a penalty, but was also not at all dangerous or malicious, IMO at least.
Regardless of the outcome (4×4 for 2 minutes), I was actually embarrassed by Kassian’s move there – the act of an outright goon. It was dirty and certainly not how I want the team I support to win. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen again.
Yammer is in a vulnerable position and takes a head shot. Good hit.
Kassian gives the rookie a hard time for a laugh. Im not really focused on that at all.
I think Landeskog should have at least gotten a penalty on the hit on Yammer, as it was dangerous. I don’t think the no-call on Landeskog gives Kassian a free pass on what he did. That said, when I watched it last night, I thought that Kassian fed Byram a couple. Turns out he just took his helmet off, I think; so less egregious.
Anything for Landeskog?
I don’t think there is supplementary disciple for hitting a small player.
There often is when the point of contact is 50% head.
It’s virtually impossible for a 6’2” inch player to hit a 5’8” player without there being some contact with the head.
It comes down to initial point of contact and deemed intent.
The referees and the league didn’t think Landeskog intentionally targeted the head and I agree.
Archibald hits Stanley low, why was that a problem then? Can’t have it both ways.
you agree ? I’m absolutely shocked…
According to tsn, a whole lot of nothing. Not even a hearing.
Point of contact shouldn’t be the only issue with the hit – the fact that it was blindside is way more of an issue. They banned those well before they banned headshots and it should be the primary issue in this scenario – but its the NHL so *shrug*
” Darnell Nurse…..Third pair Saturday. Has to be.”
Does make you wonder what Jay is thinking.
We know that series can change in an instant. The Oilers could very well win the next two on home ice. Nope, it sure doesn’t look like that’s going to happen given how good the Avs look but it also didn’t look like the Oilers could win four straight against the flames after game 1 or come back against the Kings after a 4-0 loss.
The Avs don’t look good. They are good, very good. Only they can lose this series.
The Oilers are also good, very good.
“Evan Bouchard is one of my favourites”
Evan Bouchard has far exceeded my expectations for him in these playoffs; Especially in terms of poise and physicality.
This series aside, he had literally been getting better with each passing game. It appears that “decision making” (situational play) is perhaps the final hurdle.
I can’t wait to watch 23 yr old Evan.
Then 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 ……
Pretty sure Fabio is actually a lady named Rhonda and called it to Reid and Rob last night to throw absolute vitriol towards Darnell Nurse.
I would have guessed it was Bling!
Are you convinced the Oilers can win a cup with Nurse as their #1 dman?
I’m convinced that when 100%, the Oilers would be more than capable. It’s a team game after all.
How has Vegas done with Pietrangelo? How about San Jose with Karlsson and Burns? New Jersey and Hamilton?
Is Nurse the next Bobby Orr? No.
Is he the team’s number one Dman? Yes.
I agree it’s a team game. I realize he’s hurt. Pietrangelo had half a team this year and won with the Blues. Karlsson carried the team with Ottawa. Burns in his prime was top end with the Sharks. Hamilton is in the same boat as Darnell. But the Hurricanes weren’t gonna be the fools to give him 9 mil a year.
Healthy Nurse isn’t the problem it’s a bunch of the other guys
But how many time did Pieterangelo lose with the Blues. The Blues didn’t win until Parayko took the toughest matchups, and Pieterangelo became a softer minutes killer. Neither Pieterangelo, nor Burns, nor Karlsson has let their team to a Stanley Cup, because ultimately, none of them are a true shutdown defender.
Doughty and Keith in their prime could shutdown the best opposition. Hedman. High probability, Makar. Niedermayer.
I’d rather have Parayko than Pieterangelo. St. Louis made that choice too. One’s chances for a cup are better with Nurse, than a Niedermayer-lite. Pieterangelo would have never gotten his money from Vegas if not for Parayko.
Nurse will give his team more chances for Cups like Pronger did. I’d take Nurse over Pieterangelo every day of the week. Pieterangelo is Paul Coffey, a really nice to have, but not absolutely critical.
The late seventies Habs dynasty had three Nurses.
There are very few complete defensemen. The first player that Sather found expendible was Coffey. Coffey is a really nice to have, but elite offense from a D is really a luxury item. It is not on the critical path.
The problem with the Oilers D is not Nurse. The problem is that the rest of the D is not very good.
Godot great to read your reply. Pietrangelo won with the Blues and since he has left, neither the Knights nor the Blues have made much headway. I agree that Parayko is an excellent d-man. Even he though, has in my opinion, lost a step. They opted to pay Faulk and not Pietrangelo, and in my opinion did not improve. Karlsson was wasted on an average club in Ottawa just as Josi is today in Nashville. In San Jose, they made a final only to lose to a better Pittsburgh team. No disputing Keith,Doughty, Seabrook, Weber all hall of famers in my view. Pietrangelo is a much more complete defenceman than Coffey. Coffey the best offensive defenceman to ever play. The best most complete Bourque? Lidstrom? We could debate forever. Coffey was traded because he wanted more money. Sather’s hand was forced and big money was overtaking the league. Nurse when he plays within his strengths, can be quite effective. Number 1 dman effective? Not convinced. Is he penalized by his fellow defencemen? Not so sure. I think Cody Ceci has been an absolute bull and quite steady. Surely, a great find. Furthermore, he is not helped by a team reluctance to play consistent defence. Last but not least, not enamoured with his decision making and ability to defend when he throws himself out of the play by sprawling on to the ice.
In the long run, the Oilers will have to get past Colorado to get to the final.
Given that Makar, Toews and very likely Byram are all superior (and Sam Girard is no slouch) how do you like their chances?
And have 27 mil this summer to reload
Can they? Yes, absolutely.
Will they? No idea but I look forward to finding out.
Of course, for the entirety of the playoffs, we have iced a, seemingly, very injured Nurse.
That was some call…
The funny thing was, Reid knew it was there (her feelings), and she was leaving it unsaid, but he pulled it out of her and got her to open up and … well, wow. Was that an eye-opener, lol.
It’s unfortunate, but even subtracting Kuemper, Girard, and Burakovsky, the Oilers looked way overmatched.
That’s a roster issue.
If you swap Toews and Makar with Nurse and Ceci, this would be a different series.
Having a hobbled Nurse and Draisaitl only exacerbated the problem.
Last night, we couldn’t compete at the top end of the roster even against their backup goalie.
Officiating didn’t help and it’s not like the Avs need help there, but they’re still getting it.
I’m a huge fan of Woodcroft, but his continued play of Archibald is perplexing. He cost us that second goal against and that was the game.
I also don’t understand why a hobbled Nurse is playing so many minutes.
Let’s hope to see Holloway, some plan on d, and maybe win a game or two against the AVS to take the series to 5 or 6.
You make too much sense:)
Jared Bednar is going “full Belicheck” here; Taking away McMagic and Mike Smith’s puck handling.
(another reason to “seriously” consider Mikko)
“I’m serious here. He captures the moment.”
I noticed this as well. Some faces are very emotive.
Cody Ceci is one of them. Sort of hyper-aware.
“It’s not what happens to you, it’s what you do about it.”
The next 2 games (maybe more?) will go a long way to helping determine who the “absolute” keepers are on the roster.
The game is 80% physical and half mental.
You just can’t have ANY quit in you.
“Veterans get away with murder in this league.”
I’m convinced that this is less about the officials, and more about vetereans experience. Guys like Keith are accutely aware of what they can get away with and are very savvy about how they do so (the 5w’s and the h)
” It’s a book, and a rollercoaster ride through a truly amazing life”
Ain’t no book gonna save us now; Not even one written by a “Mitchell” 🙂
I think LT has seen the wind, though
Take heart, everything is going as the corgi predicted.
https://twitter.com/nhl/status/1531682013668945921?s=21&t=HihyyhpdEwcYjRbYOtx9uw
Awesome.
I know this is a stretch but am hoping history repeat itself for Colorado, up first 2 games with Vegas but ultimately losing the next four.