The Edmonton Oilers went deep into the postseason but fell short of the Stanley Cup Final. It’s been 16 years since the franchise has made an appearance, and that matches the longest previous drought (1990 to 2006) in club history. That means no matter what happens next year, we will be talking about the longest drought in history (either ending or continuing).
It’s going to be a difficult summer for this organization, now three years from Leon Draisaitl’s free agent summer (2025), four years from Connor McDavid’s (2026) next contract.
I’m not going to spend too much time on the game, we’ll break it all down on Lowetide and Jamieson this morning. I’m not going to talk about the officiating at all save for the following statement. The plays I was flummoxed by were the Makar goal counting, the MacKinnon slew foot and the Ryan slewfoot. All had enormous impact in three games. I got a DM last night from a friend who was upset and I get it. The Makar goal was especially baffling, and this is two years in a row I’m left wondering if the calls will ever even out. Perhaps there is a Stanley run in the future with ridiculous calls the other way. At least Duncan Keith was filthy. Bottom line: Does no good to complain and Colorado was the better team full stop.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Oilers’ season ends, and critical roster decisions will define what comes next
- Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
- DNB: Oilers’ offense quickly devolves from strength to weakness against Avalanche
- Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
- DNB: Oilers on brink of disaster after a crushing 2 minutes in Colorado
- DNB: Why the Oilers should play Dylan Holloway against the Avalanche
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Holland gets how much credit for playoff success?
- DNB: Why Cale Makar’s unquestionable goal did in the Oilers in Game 1
- DNB: Oilers vs. Avalanche is Manson vs. Manson
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan McLeod uses blazing speed to move up depth chart
- DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
- Peter Baugh and Lowetide: Breaking down Oilers vs. Avalanche
- Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers future relies on quality coaching replacement in Bakersfield
- Lowetide: Has Oilers goalie Mike Smith earned the net in 2022-23?
- DNB: This is how Connor McDavid wins: ‘He’s like a shark circling the waters’
- DNB: How Dave Manson is making the Oilers blue line better
Off-season priorities
- Sign Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. This is imperative and I don’t think anyone would bat an eye if it was for a significant length. These two men made an immediate and significant difference. Sign them, and then fashion the roster for the coaches. I expect the fourth line to be faster and younger next season and 7D will be a regular thing.
- Hire an analytics department before the summer trading period. The draft should be fine, Edmonton’s amateur scouts have delivered impressively in the last few seasons. Even though the team lets some good talent slip through the cracks (Matej Blumel signed with the Dallas Stars yesterday, he’s a good prospect), the amateur scouts are fine. The pro scouts haven’t been close to the amateur scouts for years.
- UFA’s: I don’t think Holland can find the money for Evander Kane, but do believe Brett Kulak is worth the investment. The rest of the UFA group, which includes Josh Archibald, Derick Brassard, Colton Sceviour, Kyle Turris, Kris Russell, Mikko Koskinen, Brad Malone and Cooper Marody, will not return with few exceptions. I think Brad Malone gets a contract, maybe Josh Archibald, but the team should do the right thing and let Marody go.
- RFA’s: Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod all need new contracts, I’m hopeful all three return but realistically it’s unlikely.
- Publish injury reports: Darnell Nurse played with a torn hip flexor, suffered at the end of the regular season. We know Leon Draisaitl had some major issues. Who else? We’ll find out.
- Identify the foundation under contract: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, Evan Bouchard
- Identify NHL-ready prospects: Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Dmitri Samorukov, Markus Niemelainen, Stuart Skinner
- Identify pieces to trade: Zack Kassian, Warren Foegele, Tyson Barrie
- Identifty signed veterans who will return if no upgrade is found: Derek Ryan, Devin Shore, Duncan Keith, Mike Smith
- Identify areas to upgrade: No. 1 goalie, second pair defense, PF for No. 1 line.
SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES
The first job will be the coaches, and then goaltending has to be addressed. Mike Smith’s range in performance is the widest I’ve ever seen, he’s 40 and prone to excitable plays.
This team has three more Leon seasons and four more McDavid years, and I think it’s time we begin talking about life after those two men.
Ken Holland has to fix the goaltending. Years ago he said spending money on mid-level goaltending was folly, and his Edmonton work suggests he’ll either go big or go home in net. He has to get it right. We might see a deal that sends Jesse Puljujarvi, the first-round pick and Zack Kassian to the Anaheim Ducks for John Gibson. That’s the kind of trade Holland pursues this summer in my opinion.
I expect Jesse Puljujarvi, the first-round pick, Tyson Barrie, Zack Kassian and Warren Foegele are on the way out.
Holland will take heat for his three-year plan of Smith-Koskinen, as he should, but there are opportunities now with Koskinen’s money off the books. Stuart Skinner should be on the team this fall, that’s a value contract. Holland has to choose well.
I think Gibson will be on the list, the team will likely reach out to free agents Darcy Kuemper, Eric Comrie, Ville Husso, Braden Holtby, Felix Sandstrom. I expect we’ll see a Holtby-level starter, Skinner and possibly someone like Comrie or Sandstrom in Bakersfield if they can clear. It’s also possible we see three goalies in Edmonton all next year. It’s important to see what Skinner is before risking waivers.
Ken Holland had a pile of money last summer, and in truth some of those investments (notably Hyman and Ceci) were top notch fixes. I view the summer work as finding a way to move Keith to the third pair (is Kulak or Broberg ready for second pair?) and getting a goaltender. I think Kane is too expensive, so perhaps a mid-level PF is the answer.
One of the things this team needs to do soon is find free-agent solutions in the lower reaches of the annual pool. Ken Holland needs to go hunting for Michael Bunting. I wish he had an Eric Tulsky.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
Sincere thanks for all of your kind words yesterday about the new show, it was such a pleasure working with Dave and Matt. Today, we’ll be breaking down last night’s game, the season and what lies ahead. We’ll be paying special attention to the goaltending riddle and of course welcome your input. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
When you’re a motivated seller, you want more than one buyer so you can get a good price. Which of these guys do you see having more than one party interested?
Barrie – probably
Foegele – more than one seems a stretch
Kassian – I think so, but call it a coin flip
Puljujarvi — probably
I think management likes all four of these players. I think if they could keep one of the four they would choose Puljujarvi. He is youngest, has the most upside and is also the cheapest so provides the least relief. In terms of cap savings to talent lost this trade is difficult to get value from. Better be a helluva good return and is there any GM out there that likes him that much?
I’d bet they’d like to keep Kass too, but where else are they going to find the space? If they’re going to improve the bottom 6, it won’t be done with min salaries.
Be funny if Cogs won a Cup with the Oil now…
Re: Eric Comrie
The first time Comrie was placed on waivers was Sept 2019. He was claimed. He has been waived a total of five times and was claimed on four of them. He was not waived once this past season. He’s not a good bet to get through waivers.
Judging by his performance as the sole back-up to Hellebuyck and the persistence of the organization in re-acquiring his rights, I’d say it’s likely he signs an extension.
godot10
Reply to knighttown
June 7, 2022 3:12 pm
.
I’ve looked at acquiring Price a couple of times over the past couple of months. There’s no doubt they could use Barrie, which I’m sure is what attracted them to you too. So I’ve been wondering about what could be got.
The problem is Oilers can’t take Price without salary retained and Habs can’t retain salary and take any meaningful salary back because they’re already capstrung. Just Barrie and Smith would put them farther over than they are now.
I’m not certain on how the LTIR rules now work in the off-season. I think you still have to be cap compliant these days during the interregnum.
I am not endorsing this. I just sort of expect it. There would have to be long conversations between the Holland, Hughes, and the Price camp about what happens in future scenarios.
i.e. There might be a lot of conditional picks extending far into the future on both sides. i.e. If Price returns to form, future picks going Montreal’s way. If Price fails to return to form, future picks going Edmonton’s way.
I expect Montreal trades Petry and Barrie would just take his spot.
The Oilers have the clock ticking on McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s current deals. The Oilers just might decide not to worry about the long term with Price.
Montreal is already in LTIR, because of Weber. Which makes Klefbom a potential part of this deal. Because once in LTIR, sometimes more LTIR can be used creatively.
It would be an extremely complex deal to put together, involving side understandings/hedges about what happens in the tail risk scenarios.
For example, if Dallas loses Klingberg, there become a landing spot for Petry.
I know you’re not advocating, but you can’t expect something that can’t happen. We need to know on that first. For eg, Holland referred to Klef in a way today that made it sound like he’s not back in LTIR till next season begins.
The OT goal didn’t make sense to me, how is that a legal shot, if it theoretically wouldn’t count if it goes in? Why the hell are there 2 different standards of high stick/puck contact in the offensive zone? It makes zero sense to me.
Anyway, I have not read any of the comments since 5:30ish yesterday, so this has already probably been beaten to death.
Are we really mentioning Alex Chaisson as an improvement?
Well, we did just play Brad Malone on a defensive zone draw in OT of a western conference final elimination game…..
When he had won 66% of his draws that night…
Brad Malone…..
If he is not retained, should the Oilers plan for life post-Malone?
Woodcroft/Manson’s first trick was making a one-line team a three-line one. Next coaching magic needs to be improving the overall defensive play of the entire lineup… Smith was certainly poor at times but my goodness was there some terrible defensive play throughout those playoffs. Love that Manson has encouraged the d to step up and aggressively deny entries, that was a significant step forward, now he needs to find a solution to the in-zone play.
As for the transition game, I think the team should try to move away from the “slap the puck around the boards” method of breaking out. Smith’s ability to start the breakout makes it a viable enough strategy but the team’s breakout cannot be dependent on a goaltender, especially one his age who can struggle at the actual goaltending part. All the rimming puts a lot of pressure on the wingers who have to fish the puck off the boards and find the centre in the middle– the more skilled wingers are capable of doing so but it’s asking too much of the guys with less skill and brains like Archibald, Kassian, and later-season Puljujarvi. An untenable amount of those rims become passes right to the other team’s defencemen against a good team like the Avalanche.
That’d be my to-do list as the coaches. For Ken: remove the weak links in the bottom-six, upgrade the goaltender, and rework the defence as neccessary. I appreciate the physicality of Archibald and Kassian– it is a beautiful thing hearing the cheers at Rogers when they manage to land even partial contact on the forecheck– but they aren’t pulling their weight elsewhere. Time to move on. A Smith/Skinner tandem is probably sufficient through the regular season but I don’t think the team can go into another postseason with Smith as the number one, he’s just too volatile, so that only works out if Skinner emerges in a major way I think. On defence: I thought Barrie looked much better under Woodcroft than Tippett but moving him is one of the easier ways to create money to use elsewhere. I like him and will be disappointed to see him go but it is the natural move. Kulak is an excellent player, moves the puck very well. Seemed like an underrated player when he was acquired but he exceeded my every expectation. I think a Nurse, Ceci, Kulak, Bouchard top-four is strong enough, especially if Bouch can take steps forward defensively.
Tough offseason to navigate without much cap space but the team is in good shape. Cannot wait for October.
Oilers will be a 120 point team next season.
All that matters is what they do in the playoffs
I don’t know if I understand this correctly but if Kane wins arbitration, my understanding is that the Sharks could
a) keep him and his contract
b) let him auction himself off to highest bidder, allowing whatever is offered to come off the Sharks’ books for the next 3 years
c) trade the contract (although he technically had a 3 team trade clause) in part or full
If that is true, Sharks would be taking a gamble with b), because Kane has no incentive to get a high AAV contract from another team and can solely pick based on where he wants to live. Eg oilers could offer him 1 mil/season and Sharks have to pay the rest. Huge advantage to any team to pluck him. However if Sharks chose c) then they would in essence be starting the bidding war. So I can’t imagine why they wouldn’t choose that option, no?
If I am understanding this all correctly, would you offer Jesse or a pick for Kane at 4-5 per year?
I am one of the few where I believe we find a way to sign Kane.
your top nine of:
McD, Kane, JP
Drai, Hyman, Yamo
RNH McLeod Holloway
Your 4th line doesn’t matter. As long as they do not get scored on and can establish a pain in the arse forecheck. This line can be worth less than 4 mil.
Can you make the money work?
Connor and Leon make Markstrom look like a 1B and there is no question in that goalies value.
Team Avs makes Smith look like a 1B and Edmonton is looking for a new goalie?
We definitely need an upgrade in the goaler dept. no matter which way you cut it.
I seen Mike flail twice on the ice with no one in sight against the Av’s. Maybe my eyes were playing tricks on me. I’m surprised this hasn’t been brought up it’s like he was having a mini seizure. I think this happened once against L.A as well. Never seen this happen to a NHL Goalie.
i would not want to be the one to bet my job on a 41 yo goalie
And you wouldn’t have been the guy who bet your GM job on a 40 year old goalie
It’s just the age of Smith combined with the age of Skinner.
if Skinner stays in the minors. And Smith is considered a backup, then we are in the market for a starter.
2 problems:
1 Smith historically plays his best in a run of games
2 Starters usually are big bucks
my money is on Carter Hart. He had a down year he is local, played minor hockey against Skinner and Philly looks like there is enough chaos there to make a real hockey trade
The problem is if Smith retires his replacement is going to take a bigger cap hit.
Hart is $4 million so that would reduce the available cap space to about $5 million with another 8 players to sign.
I like Hart as well. We would have give up some of the more expensive help – Nuge for Hart?
Hart is way overrated. Go with Skinner and play defence!
Smith is a worn out 40 year old man. His body cannot do what his warrior spirit needs it to do.
It’s another version of the Whitney situation; with the player refusing to take himself off from the team and weak Oilers coaching lol
Winger turns over the puck, doesn’t backcheck = half the fan base doesn’t notice, most of the rest don’t care.
Centre is out of position to cover his man = half the fan base doesn’t notice, the ones who notice care.
Defender has a brainfart, leaves his man open = most of the fan base notices, most of them are mad at the D man.
Goalie gets scored on = he sucks, Holland’s an idiot, if only we had X goalie they would never screw up and we’d win every game no matter how much better the other team played.
24 hours later a couple thoughts. I see no scenario where Smith can be the starter next year. He was healthy for only half a season and will be a year older and slower. No way he can take them all the way.
I know the analytics love JP but 3 points in 16 games isn’t even close to good enough. Corsi etc are great but ultimately games are won and lost with goals.
All said it was a terrific year and with the experience and some changes next year will be better yet.
With regards to JP: This feels like Eberle all over again.
JP is young and has been in 1 playoffs. He seemed overwhelmed. Let him have a second season. Sign him to a 1 year deal. I mean I would do longer, hes cheap now. He will get better.
Don’t ship him cause he had a bad rookie playoffs. Pretty sure Holland has more patience then most, so I am not overly worried that he gets shiped out.
This.
JP is a year or 2 behind the Oilers in playoff experience. Next year will be a huge growth year for him. Sign the guy long term, something like 3.5 mil per. He will right away be a bargain. His camp will probably want a 1-2 year deal.
I am not against trading him, but not 75 cents on the dollar
comparisons to Eberle? Please. Eberle had a long successful track record before the playoffs you are referring to.
Eberle was also making $6MM per year.
Note: I was NOT one that wanted to trade Eberle.
That trade would have been gold because Strome has turned out to be a more well rounded better player. Too bad so many players like him somehow lose their confidence in Edmonton and rediscover it elsewhere.
Don’t forget he starred in that Oilers documentary, with Hall and other notable star players.
2.75 X 3 is better lol
Keep JP on and don’t give him a raise.
If JP is a bona fide head case then its Pitkanen 2.0 where the slightly offbeat nordic hockey player has trouble adjusting to the North American game.
Maybe injured? We wait
He was hardly used…..less than 10 min a night on average does not cut it. If that’s Woody’s view of him, better to deal him. But most likely for picks
Craig Simpson is laid back with his commentary and when he mentioned that the puck dies on J.P’s stick way to often, Craig wasn’t saying it to be mean.
Try to get those damning facts right. He averaged a bit more than 10 min a night in the playoffs. He was 9th in TOI per game among forwards.
My line in the sand for season success was winning a round. We won 2 despite having 2/3 of our most important players very visibly injured. Smith could have played better but when you shop for goalies at the dollar store you can’t complain about them when they break down. Avs definitely benefited from some puck luck and refereeing to beat us.
Hard to be dissatisfied with the outcome
Healthier players and it might still be a series.
“When you shop for goalies at the dollar store you can’t complain about them when they break down.” You’d think so, wouldn’t you?
Interesting that the Final Four – Big Defenseman thing was kind of obliterated this season. I guess it was only around a year or two in the first place, but final 4 teams didn’t follow the “all D over 200 lbs” at all (I think that was the criteria used).
This year Edmonton, Colorado and NYR all had multiple D under 200 lbs (based off weights listed on NHL.com). Very un-timely for Dom Luszczyszyn’s heavy hockey index.
EDM – Bouchard, Barrie, Keith, Kulak – all listed between 192 and 197 lbs
COL – Girard (170), Makar (187), Byram (190), Toews (191)
NYR – Fox (183) and Lindgren (191)
TBY – remains giant
When was the Final Four Big defenseman narrative?
It was just last year I think (TB, NYI, MTL, VEG). I was remembering it as a couple of years ago, but last playoffs there were only 2 D under 200 lbs across the 4 teams (IIRC they were Greene and Theodore).
It’s possible the narrative was unfounded, but it definitely got some legs.
Isn’t it about balance?
COL
E. Johnson 225
Manson 224
J. Johnson 227
Sakic said in the last offseason that he needed more size on the back end and went out and got it.
NYR
Trouba 209
Miller 210
Braun 205
Nemeth 228
Schneider 202
Braun and Schneider play very limited minutes. Nemeth doesn’t play.
Two guys and Miller is still a bit lanky
Braun and Schneider are their 3rd pair playing 13:19 and 12:19 tonight.
If 6’4″ 216 is lanky I would hate to see what Miller looks like when he fills out.
Schneider is also only 20 so will like pack own some muscle
I think Smith’s puckhandling negated some of the need for a hulking D corp. JMO, once we lost Smith our D men are gonna take a lot more hits I think.
Jack Johnson barely played. So 2 guys with size
He’s played in 7 playoff games and averaged 11:20 per game.
Pretty much what you would expect from a #7D
Not long after Woody Harrelson was hired, MacT on an intermission panel said something along the lines of, “one thing I learned about Jay while I managed Bakersfield is that he is persistent. A no was just a delayed yes. I learned it would save me time if I just said yes right away. He wears you down with his persistence.”
As we forecast and anticipate summer personnel moves we might look at the players Woodcroft likes and doesn’t like as to who will stay and who may go.
If I’m not mistaken, Puljujarvi had something like 23 points in 28 games before he got Covid.
TOTAL SPECULATION but he never seemed to be quite the same after his airlift back home.
Covid doesn’t typically make you look like you are playing hockey with a croquet mallet
Sometimes when I close my eyes, I see Jesse attempting a one timer but missing the puck and stumbling around like last game.
I’m glad you know the typical effects of covid issues on professional athletes.
That hadn’t occurred to me either.
He did go 14 0-2-2 between when he returned from Covid until Woodcroft was joined the team (he went 2-1-3 in his last pre-Covid game, and 1-0-1 in the first game with Woodcroft behind the bench).
JP was hurt, some way or another.
The most satisfying part of these playoffs, for me, is that Nugent-Hopkins scored meaningful goals.
I think it will be somewhat liberating for him.
It was weird.
Assuming no moves are made with the first pick, the Oilers will make their first selection at #29. The Oilers have only made one other pick ever at that spot–Todd Strueby in 1981. (Would that we could get another #29 at #29!)
Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler recently put out their lists of prospects for this draft. Some of the names bandied about on this blog and / or in the range and where they are ranked by Pronman (P) and Wheeler (W). (Pronman also provides player comparisons to current NHL’ers for his top 32):
Ivan Miroshnichenko, LW – Comp: Gabriel Landeskog
12 P, 28 W
Pavel Mintyukov, D – Comp: B. Montour
18 P, 25 W
Owen Pickering, D – Comp: Travis Sanheim
24 P, 53 W
Luca Del Bel Belluz, C – Comp: Ryan Donato
25 P, 47 W
Liam Ohgren, LW – Comp: Alex Iafallo
26 P, 14 W
Ryan Chesley, D – Comp: Ryan Lindgren
29 P, 30 W
Jagger Firkus, RW – Comp: Eeli Tolvanen
30 P, 34 W
Filip Bystedt, C
35 P, 58 W
Noah Ostlund, C
40 P, 23 W
Mats Lindgren, D
41 P, 36 W
Maveric Lamoureux, D
43 P, 85 W
David Goyette, C
61 P, 20 W
Ty Nelson, D
73 P, 32 W
Noah Warren, D
81 P, 77 W
Jordan Dumais, RW
90 P, 33 W
Afternoon everyone.
That was a thrilling ride to the end. I was disappointed as all of you were, but as I said yesterday, at the end of January if you told me we were going to playoffs and would make it to the WCF, I’d wonder what you were smoking. Never in my wildest dreams did I see that coming. Coaches Woodcroft and Manson deserve a bit of credit here and hopefully Holland does the right thing and stabilizes that part of the good ship Oilers.
Nurse has gotten a mulligan from me the whole playoffs as his injuries are too great. I’ve played with hip flexor aggravations and they totally limit your range of motion. I can’t imagine what a torn one feels like.
Word this afternoon is that the Kraken will be without the services of Chris Dreidger for 7 months as he underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL he suffered at the World Championships. Perhaps a team to offload the Smith contract?
Speculation aside, I want to step into the coach’s shoes for a moment. You’ve just taken a team that looked dead in the water, to the WCF and done it with a lineup that many said wouldn’t even make it to the playoffs. You have good assistants behind the bench and a goalie coach no one can figure out how he keeps his job year to year. You know that every other coaching staff is studying your team to look for tendencies and patterns in how you did it this season. Those are there and as much as you’d like to think you can change it, you always have the same tendencies as a coach. It’s in your personality and how you see the game played. If you don’t think that’s true, take a group of 20 coaches and ask them who the greatest hockey player is and why. You may get some agreement on the player themselves, but you will never get a unanimous answer on why. That’s why you will always have a tendency in the way you coach. Woodcroft has played some of his deck and now others will try to adjust.
What woodcroft doesn’t have at his disposal right now, is a complete lineup top to bottom and that why wonderful sites like this exist. I’m sure the coaching staff would have loved to have a fully functioning bottom six, but in it’s current state, that doesn’t exist, but it was nice to see McLeod step up and really show his ability. That kid can flat out fly and he’s only going to get better. The D core, needs work, big time. As a unit they don’t really trust each other or communicate very well. You’ve all probably seen it a few times these playoffs where a puck was dumped in and neither d man seemed to want to retrieve it. Add Smith’s chaos with puck handling and there’s not a full comprehensive unit back there. I’m sure Manson will work on that.
I really enjoyed this season more than any other in recent memory. I remarked to my lifelong friend that this team was reminiscent of the 83 team; not quite there yet, but a long ways from where they began. The team that beat them? Well, I imagine they feel they climbed a mountain last night after they to missed their chances.
This is a good hockey team. Sure there’s a long ways to go, but I was very proud of this team. They didn’t look like that bunch that truly folded against the Jets.
Baby steps man, baby steps.
Have a good summer everyone!
Go Oilers!
Theres so many ways this roster can shake out depending on our own free agents let alone trades. Are there any UFAs you guys are realistically interested in?
For the bottom six if they move on from a few pieces (Arch/Kass/Foeg) at a quick glance Johan Larsson, Alex Chiasson (slow boots though), Ryan Donato, and Jarnkrok all look interesting and semi reasonable. I imagine Jarnkrok might price himself out though.
If they trade Barrie and need a 2.5RD Colin Miller and Ilya Lyubushkin seem interesting but I honestly couldnt tell you what either would sign for.
Lowetide has mentioned my boy Vinnie Hinnostroza.
He put up similar numbers to Foegele for just over a third of the price. He’s smaller and less rugged, but he’s fast.
Barring a miracle, we’re not going to be shopping from the top of the pile.
Well, Kane is top of the pile, no? 😉
Dangerous, err, Daily Faceoff has Kane 5th on their UFA board.
That’s a dangerous looking list in general (Kane at #6).
Guys coming off career years, mid-30’s guys who played at a high level this year. Kane.
I still can’t believe they haven’t changed it to my slip up.
Slip up, or ups?
Haha!
chiasson?? Jarnkrok???lol
Yes, of course, they need to qualify him to keep his RFA rights but my point was that not offering a more substantial contract would be an insult.
I didn’t explain that well in my post, I see that now.
Your top 6 def next year up to the trade deadline are probably:
Nurse Ceci
Kulak Bouchard
Keith Broberg
if Keith does not retire and Barrie is traded
Your probably right
A pretty good puck moving group
If Bouch bulks up a bit it would help
I saw him get knocked off pucks last game with shoulder checks. He needs to get up to closer to 200
For me it’s about his game. He isn’t a quick skater, not that he’s bad or whatever
I think it would help his confidence a ton as he’s pretty light for his height for a D that isn’t a top skater, or a skill first super fast and agile type. It may help his urgency if he’s not as worried about physical battles
I see him as a Pietrangelo type. Not super physical, not super fast. Good offensively and a great passer. Fantastic shot. Could be solid defensively if not a shut down guy. A bigger better Barrie. He’ll need the weight to box out more effectively and not get pushed around
— I’d be curious to get a sense of what percentage of posters here believed that the Oil had a legit chance to win the Cup?
— I would have gladly ate my hat if Smith won 16 games, but in my head “knew” that mathematics didn’t give us much chance. Sure in the final 4 I guess it was a 25% chanc.
— But it’s akin to an investor “hoping” that some of the dogs in portfolio will recover.
— The way this team is currently constructed: the supernova games from McD and or Drai made us competitive.
— I don’t think there was a realistic path to winning the Cup with this iteration: in the absence of playoff supernova performances we were pretty meh IMO
— A heroic off season would be Smith and Keith retire. Klef LTIR gets traded. Kassian and Barrie get traded and Kanes settlement allows for a team to sign him while “eating” into what is owed in his grievance if you follow, so he can’t double-dip.
— And of course with all that hope we have a deadly management that makes reasonable bets in the context of a competitive market and makes more nice moves than handicaps.
— Now just like it wasn’t likely the Oil were winning the Cup this year the scenario above isn’t likely either.
— Winning a Cup while McD and Drai are vastly outperforming their contracts is going to be hard
Based on our regular season results against the three other conference finalists and how we performed against Calgary in the 2nd round, I thought we had a reasonable chance, perhaps in the range of the 25% you mentioned. I certainly wasn’t expecting it. I was trying to keep low expectations so I wouldn’t be too disappointed if they did lose.
I asked this at the deadline – as we were, once again, buyers.
Great run for sure…but as you say- not sure it was in the cards to have 40 year old Mike Smith win 16 *and* have the bottom 6 outperform the Cup favs.
I said last summer they could win it
Because of having a number one D finally and two elite forwards, more depth, and passable goalering. The deal hinges on goalies and they came around and were healthy in the playoffs o
If the Oilers played better Smith would have been less of an issue. Colorado swept us with mediocre goalies
If the Oilers had been healthier they could have beat this Colorado team. They didn’t get blown out, they gave games away they could have won even that banged up. They would have been 3 lines deep
You never know, if they had gotten through no reason they couldn’t beat the other two teams. Nobody called the Rangers going to the finals
Not healthy enough this time. Something for them to think about for next season
Injuries to Nurse and Draisaitl made winning the cup too much of a reach. The only team I can think of that won the cup with their #1 dman being really banged up or out was the Pens when Letang was out in 2017.
— I mean we won’t ever know but I don’t believe we were a healthy Nurse and Drai away from winning the Cup…Let’s hope management doesn’t believe this either.
* I did though reason that after game 1 we could have made adjustments and it was going to be competitive. Not sure if it was injuries or coach not making adjustments or roster or goalie but Avs made changes and adjustments and played much better for rest of series except the 2nd period of last game. Oil not so much.
— I wonder what/when injury to Drai: he had one of the greatest 5 game series in the history of hockey. Did he reinjure something or fall apart or during break between series get hurt?
I thought, if they stayed healthy, they could always get lucky. But once Nurse and Draisaitl were hobbled, the die was cast.
The implied volatility or variance of the Oilers healthy roster, made the Cup a small probability…say 5%.
— Just my gut but I’d say close to half of posters reasonably believed the Oil were ready and equipped to win the Cup this year: saying stuff like Smith was best goalie in universe over some time period or that Oil had 2nd best record over some other sample size.
— Teams like the Oil this year rarely win Cups: I’d say the closest was St-Louis a few years ago. Say what you want about parity : but over the last 25 years generally great teams that deserve win: Chicago, LA, Washington, Pitts, Tampa, Detroit…
— we aren’t that class or calibre, yet. Our chances weren’t that great IMO.
I didn’t think this team would make the playoffs as recently has the 50 game mark, and if they did, I thought they would be an easy first round knock out due to the lack of defensive structure/discipline from the forwards and general slow footspeed of the defenders. Woody did a good job with the structure (though there were lapses), but this is not a championship defensive corps. I would forget about the scoring left winger that we are all talking about (isn’t that what Hyman was for?), and focus on shoring this D up with inexpensive, speedy, preferably veteran 4D-6D players.
If we could trade Barrie to a team looking for offense from the backend for someone who doesn’t score as much (so doesn’t have as much trade value), but analytics/pro scouts love his defensive acumen and has good wheels, that would be a huge win for this roster.
A Keith retirement would open up all kinds of possibilities to better fill out the D. I’m not sure we can wait for all our developing D to get enough sorties. Bouchard is a great example of Lowetide’s saying that young D will break your heart. We watched Nurse go through it now quite a few years ago. Man he had some bad sorties!
I’m not sure we have time to go through these growing pains with Broberg, Niem, Sam, or others. We need experience for this three year window.
It seems like you are looking for a Barrie for Mayfield deal.
Lou has said he wants to acquire more offense from the blueline.
Pretty sure Mayfield is off-limits.
But I do think we should trade with Lou before he’s replaced. 🙂
The players Holland got aren’t bad. I like each player. But the mix isn’t great and some just aren’t good enough for where the team is at now
For me I would move a fair bit of the roster. First no not fast players. Maybe a 13/14 you can get away with it, say Ryan for one more year. There just aren’t many guys that can out think or out hit their boots with the speed of the speed of the playoffs now
Barrie is too expensive for third pair 5v5, and 3 other D can do the PP (Nurse Keith Bouch), maybe 4 with Bro and a bit of experience
Rusty if he wants to play has to move on, the Inn is full
I think they can do better than Keith, cap hit or not, I highly doubt anything happens there
Kulak is fine, but they absolutely need more physicality. They also have 3 D that should be used third pair emerging, Bouch isn’t really a 2D yet, that’s Kulak’s spot. Even if Bro plays right, they still need a bigger meaner D to help him. They have to find balance and it’s not there at all
Klef can’t be absorbed if he comes back, which is unlikely, but. Move the cap. It is essential to manage the cap nest season and be prepared to make a full run. Cap management 101
Foegele got 12 goals. But I find while he’s big and fast, reasonably aggressive, he isn’t very good handling the puck and it kills plays, especially when it counts. he also isn’t that strong defensively, at least on this team. 2.75M is too much for this roster, and I’d like a more aggressive player physically, that has a little more game there in terms of puck skills, for a bit less cap
Kass and Archie while gamers and fast are just not good enough or reliable enough players. The team D has to get better defensively top to bottom to get past where they got
Brassard Sceviour Turris you know
I like both RW RFAs. Both are flawed, Yama’s thing is being way too small. Yes he’s got jam, but he is already getting hurt by his style and what are really normal hockey plays. Landeskog is a jerk, but that hit wouldn’t take a normal sized guy out
Yama got 20 goals, 41 points, but was -1 playing in the top 6. He has long dry spells and is invisible in many games
JP doesn’t have great hands. he has decent hockey sense and is a puck hound with size and speed. His hands aren’t going to get much or any better, but as he matures he’ll be somewhat better at finishing, he isn’t at his peak
But I am concerned about his long term health, hips
So it may be that one goes. Maybe both should if the can sign more rounded replacements. There are a lot of forwards bubbling under, the team is fine that way for the future
Maybe cashing out when both of these fine young fellows are probably at their peak value, before they prove otherwise, is the thing to do. To me I don’t see either having much more upside than they are at. That is fine, it is what it is, but the Cup to me most important and the mix needs to improve
It could be for other young players. Maybe for help on D now or for the emptying D pipeline (drafted players at D are going to be years away where the Oilers are drafting now). Maybe use their money to sign a better one forward, and get a goalie
Holloway will replace one of them
If I had to choose I keep JP. He was .55 PPG and +22. Yama was .5 PPG and -1. Not a popular opinion I’m sure, but even with limited hands JP is more productive. He also is more impactful, or effective, in the rest of the game. As evidenced by his high +/-. Which is a lousy stat, but over a full season means more
Yama also has more value I would think as a newly minted 20 goal RFA. Especially to US teams that like to have US players, to build fan support in non hockey markets. JP will be less costly and ‘usually’ helps more and is more impactful on the defensive side of the puck and such
Which is what they need, less expensive, big and fast, driving, two way players who make their linemates better, and are hard to play against
Light me up friends!!
Very good assessment overall though it’s debatable how good JP’s hockey sense actually is.
Foegele’s interesting. At $2.75m cap hit, what’s his trade value? Is it negative? I’ve seen some people posting that you need an asset to move out that contract. If so, then ouch. Certainly if you can trade him to get rid of the cap hit, I don’t think there’s going to be much of a return.
Been wondering that to. Like the player but if moving him and replacing him with 1 million UFA allows you to sign a top 6 winger I think you gotta make that move.
Since he is a legitimate bottom six player I feel like it just depends on the team. If you have options you need a sweetener. If you are a team that struggles to sign UFAs like Arizona, Boston, Ottawa maybe the 2 years of control is nice even if its not max efficiency.
Holland might need to pay. Other GMs regularly trade NHL hockey players. Some trade bad contracts and not good players and don’t always give the farm away
Foegele is a good player, for me not right for this group. He’s not terribly over paid. He got 12 goals on the third line
Nice post. You’re absolutely killing it today.
Well balanced take on things.
Yamamoto is not going anywhere. Everybody from players to coaches raves about him. While it may be hard to quantify “good in the room”, it’s a very real consideration for a team looking to build upon the lessons learned this season.
Not sure if Jesse has peaked or not … but he’s just not interested in the battle at all, and he can’t shoot worth a damn. He should not be paid more than 3rd line winger money … I doubt his agent goes for that. If one of the young RW is going to be moved, it’ll be Jesse.
A follow up on Smith potentially retiring and his response:
“Its been a grind for sure. I’m not getting any younger. I know its been alot tougher this year then past years. Its too early to tell at this point.”
I hate these questions less than 24h after getting eliminated. I’m sure the range of emotions is spectacular and the body feels defeated
We can only hope
Definitely going to be easy to get a better goalie for that $2.2M.
I just can’t do it. Initially, I was planning on cheering for the Avs for the Cup Final.
But Kadri, and then Mackinnon….can’t do it now.
The problem is the Avs are going to be well rested here …maybe even get Kadri back.
Go Rangers.
Mark my word, league would do everything possible to get Rangers the cup this year.
Oh, I agree.
it will be interesting to see if the slew-footing MacKinnon gets called or does his special status continue?
I had no idea MacKinnon and Landeskog were so openly dirty, but my eyes are wide open to it now.
They’ve joined Thornton on my list of star players who everyone pretends aren’t constantly trying to injure their opponents. Here’s hoping they get as much playoff success as he did.
Worth mentioning that both Keith and Kassian have both been absolute dirtbags.
We all must have missed the interview where Kassian called out how dirty boarding is right before going out and boarding someone.
You must be out to lunch if you’re comparing blindside hits, slew foots and knee on knee hits to some slashes, trips and body checks. At least bring up Kane as his play actually hurt someone.
DNB asks Smith about the reports that he’s considering retiring:
“I don’t know where that came from. its too early to tell. that’s media I guess…… there are lots of things to deal with mentally and physically and that does’t need to be decided in the next 3 minutes.”
WOW – he didn’t shut down the thought of retiring – I’m surprised that it might actually be a thing.
His contract is back-loaded so it is $2.5M next season (I think).
Yep, his contract went 1.9 + 2.5
Had to chime in with a few thoughts on the main discussion points today.
1. Mike Smith. Lot of critics out there today, but Smith didn’t lose this series. The Avs created more chances than the Oilers in all 4 games. I don’t see how you can hang that on the goalie. He never won the series for his team, but he didn’t lose it either. It’s going to take a lot of assets, and cap space, to get a true upgrade in net. Be careful what you wish for.
2. JP. Lots of talk about trading Barrie, Kassian, Foegele, Yamamoto and/or JP to make room for Kane and/or a goalie. Based on his year, I believe JP is going to be the cheapest salary of the bunch next year. So why are we talking about trading him to create cap room? JP will be affordable next year. If the team signs Kane or a goalie for big money and term, then JP might need to be traded in summer of 23. But his salary shouldn’t be a problem next year.
3. Keith. He will not retire. And he won’t be waving his NMC to go to Arizona. So can we please stop with all these blue sky, totally unrealistic scenarios. He’ll be back in Edmonton, and if he plays as well as he did this year, I’ll be fine with it.
You may think that Jesse will be the cheaper one to resign … but his agent, who has a history of over-valuing his client’s market value, will likely disagree with you.
If Mike Smith retires, there is no guarantee that the Oilers will be able to sign someone to replace him … Koskinen-Skinner anyone? I agree with you here … lots of posters want to hang this loss entirely on Smith … but the Oilers as a team we’re not good enough to beat the Avs. Neither Kuemper nor Francouz were very good either. But the Avs were deeper and dirtier – people here want to complain about how dirty the Avs are … but that’s what it takes to win … we get frustrated and call it bush league, but this is the way it has always been. If you’re not cheatin’ then you’re not trying.
I think Barrie raised his stock in these playoffs – no reason why they shouldn’t be able to move his contract and get something back of value … except for being overly attached to the player. His value will never be higher than it is now, so I hope they maximize a return on their investment this summer.
On the subject of Oilers not having an analytics team and so it might be best to follow Eric Tulsky / Toronto’s lead
The Leafs are in on Andrei Kuzmenko.
Why exactly do we want a tiny Russian? Hard pass. Give me big, mean, dirty forwards … that’s how you win in the playoffs … that’s never going to change.
Last report I read suggested Oilers were in on Kuzmenko, and indeed a preferred destination? The Kane experience could help, if he is looking to increase his value in the short term. I don’t know anything about the player, but have you read that the Oilers are no longer in on Kuzmenko?
There was an account in the last 24 hours (can’t remember if it was Gregor or Matty, I think Matty) that the Oilers are indeed actively interested.
Matty asked Kane about how it went and re-signing:
“I thought it went really well, even better then I even expected…….”
Wilkins followed up on if he wants to re-sign:
“There are so many different variables guys, we just finished the season – so much to sort out before we get to that.”
There was some more follow up and he spoke glowingly about the team and the fans and the city and how happy he is with the decision he made.
Said, he’d let his agent talk about that stuff with Holland.
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
That’s really all you can ask for.
Realistically, he probably can’t make any decision until the San Jose situation plays out. If he receives the bulk of that balance, he probably stays. If he receives very little of it, he’s probably gone.
Francouz was giving up rebounds on almost every shot last night. Needed to take better advantage of that.
Still, when you lose 6-5, the problem isn’t in the opposition end…
True, Truer, and Truest.
I simply don’t see goaltending options out there worth the likely cap or trade asset price it would require. Skinner was one of the best goalies in the AHL and Smith if he’s back is veteran he can work with. A third goalie on a value contract who knows there are likely minutes here as we see what we have in Skinner seems more prudent than spending good money and term on something else that seems like kay as much of a risk.
I see no reason we move on from JP at all. Unless his demands are outlandish.
The key to the off season in my mind is finding a way to move on from Kassian, Foegele and Barrie to open up financial flexibility for Kane or a Kane replacement. I’d also really like to see them make a run at Chychrun after the gap at top end D was exposed in this series… but we may not have what it takes to make that move. The cap hit is so good.
I wonder if the Russian free agent is still on the radar that could help a lot. A little more defensive intelligence deep in the forward group would be nice.
This is going to be a very big summer. It’s win now mode… but I fear a big risk in goal on someone unproven or uneven. It’s the position where major investment can so easily blow up in your face.
“This is going to be a very big summer. It’s win now mode… but I fear a big risk in goal on someone unproven or uneven. It’s the position where major investment can so easily blow up in your face.”
In golf, if the last thing on your mind as you’re swinging is the water down the left side of the fairway, your ball is almost certainly going into the water; Identify your target, visualize the shot you want to make and swing for the fences!
Kuzmenko is still being courted by the Oilers, yes – I think it was Gregor (or Matty) that mentioned it in a piece today.
He “could” help – or he could not make the team.
This past season in the KHL, as a 25-26 year old, at this point, is a big outlier for him.
Blue Bullet Brad
@BlueBullet1981
·
3m
Before leading the Oilers D in xGF%Rel in 2014-15, Klefbom’s previous season was very similar to what Broberg did this year.
Quote Tweet
I wasn’t expecting their rookie years to be so close.
Klefbom
17 GP
47 SF%
35 GF%
41 xGF%
PDO .952
Broberg
23 games
51 SF%
37 GF%
47 xGF%
PDO .943
We can hope and dream that Broberg turns out as good as Klefbom.
Of course, that would be a homerun!
I really liked Kulak’s play. I notice Keith only got 13 minutes at even strength so I think Woody recognized he was struggling with the speed in his own end.
I notice Woody had a supporting forward coming down low to defeat the 2-man forecheck consistently this game. Worked pretty well but not sure why it took so long to do. In the reverse direction, the passing prowess of the Av’s defensemen and the way they support each other on the zone entries is incredibly effective. When you can’t get the puck from the other team and you can’t hold on to it once you finally get it…. pretty hard to win. That Avs team is fucking fire right now. Makar is really an amazing talent in both ends.
The other major difference was the Av’s making East-West passes at will while the Oiler’s were unable to do so consistently. Added on top of this was the receiver of said pass on the Avs was confident and hungry and set up for the one timer while the Oiler’s players (excepting Hyman) were not. That leads to a huge difference in the degree of difficulty of the shots. Sure, Smith had some head scratchers, but was also forced to make way too many ten-bell stops.
I believe Keith led the team in 5v5 TOI the game before
Good take
The key with Makar is his skating. And he has that will where he does not want to be beat, so he defends full tilt. A bit of talent too
With East West, I believe it is coached. Same with plays from behind the net to a player with a shot lane, in position – effective offense off the cycle. Once the players get used to trying to set up those plays, with skill it becomes second nature and more creative and reactive – going to the right spot at the right time. We saw the Oilers do that, but not consistently with intent, shift after shift. When they get checked tight, little gets created
I have commented repeatedly I don’t see that the Oilers have a developed strategy offensively or one on the PP. Basic ideas, let the skill take over. The league is too good for that now, and there aren’t a lot of players with that level of creativity and offensive capability
It’s fine for Connor. Everybody else except for Leon at times struggled to get anything done unless the game went wide open, or things went in their favour. A lot of the offensive was opportunistic, individual great plays, and relied on luck, bounces and finish when they were going in easily
That isn’t controlling the play, which is what the best teams do. Especially high skill teams. I don’t know who coaches that, Woody or Gully, but it has to get way better. Maybe a full season will help? If it’s Woody?
They need to have at least two ways to play. Two sets of plans. If a team is doing this, they give up that, we do this. And the opposite, it’s usually polar in nature with how teams play, to me. Shut down, or a lot of attack. The Avs have developed the hybrid which is the pinnacle to me. That is how the Oilers need to play, based on their best players
Also on PP. If they take one thing away they leave another. So the players should be comfortable making an adjustment to attacking with practised strategy that other thing. Take away Leon, we attack on the other side, etc. And switch back if they switch
Other teams seem to use set plays more than the Oilers as well. They have done it at times, but it’s not consistent
Keith was 25-9 Corsi and 16-6 shots and, until the OT goal, 2-0 goals.
I don’t think he was struggling at all last night.
I posted earlier that exit interview are tomorrow (as Gregor had tweeted) but they are, in fact, starting right away here.
Holland’s is tomorrow. Coach and roster are today.
Was going to post yesterday that I was against playing Dylan Holloway, but a lot of people were excited and I didn’t want to piss in anyone’s cornflakes.
As it turns out, no harm done. But man if Holloway had been injured in that game, that would go into the list of “career limiting moves” by a GM/Coach.
I guess they figured they could shelter him / limit his minutes and that Colorado did not have any assassins in the lineup.
Even in hind sight, I would not have played him.
Once Archibald was down to 4 minutes, it was a mistake not to play Holloway sooner. Draisaitl as already on one leg for awhile. One should have been getting Holloway integrated into playing.
I’m not convinced that 3 minutes (and change) playing exclusively with a combo of Kassian, Malone and Ryan, really constitutes “playing”.
I was disappointed in, but not surprised by, the deployment.
just wanted to give you kudos for this:
“Was going to post yesterday that I was against playing Dylan Holloway, but a lot of people were excited and I didn’t want to piss in anyone’s cornflakes.”
that’s rare
Some interesting playoff goalie stats from nhl.com:
Mike Smith tied for #6 in S% with .913. The guy he is tied with has 400 less shots against.
Mike Smith is #1 in shut outs.
Mike Smith is #3 in wins.
Mike Smith is 2nd in shots against and 2nd in saves.
It’s hard to process the difference that another goaltender would make. Smith made absolute ten bell stops against the Avs but then also gave up bad goals (which you’ll see more of when yielding > 40 shots per game).
I feel like maybe a steadier but less athletic tender would’ve done better against the Kings and Flames but would’ve let in 4 goals in the 1st period of every game against the Avs. Way too many grade-A chances.
Anyway, I’d move on from him. 41 is playing Russian roulette with the age cliff.
Some additional stats I found interesting
This isnt to say Smith is the reason were talking draft picks or to unnecessarily pick on him but he is a divisive goalie.
His stats against LA were great then quite mediocre after (.890 would be tied for 23rd). TMac has always been a fan of volume shooting. In fact the Kings had the 5th most shots in the regular season and the 32nd highest shooting percentage. Kings were a worthy opponent but they arent a high percentage/sharpshooting team, they pad goalies stats. Smith still played well that series despite some questionable goals and decision making.
Ive also always felt weird using wins as a goalie stat when they’re realistically a team stat. If you have an awful pitcher but with amazing run support he will get more wins than an great pitcher with awful run support. Similar idea with goalies. Smith was almost 1:1 for games above .900 and games below, makes sense given his Jekyll and Hyde impersonations. The main reason he was able to get so many wins in my mind is the sheer number of GP (going deep plus having a weak backup) as well as lots of scoring. Oilers were 3rd in the playoffs with 4.06 goals per game.
On the team SH% bit, while LAK were at the bottom of the league both CGY and COL were above average, so it evens out to an extent.
Well thats the thing Smith looked great against the volume shooting team that is in a “rebuild” and looked extremely mortal against any true offensive talent. Colorado was 7th and Calgary was 12th in the league.
To my (non goalie coach) eye it seems Smith is good in Chaos. So against a team like the Kings where theyre getting rebounds Smith can use his athleticism and unpredictability to come out ahead. On the reverse since hes so deep in his net a team that has shooters seems to be easier to score on.
Again I am talking out of my ass but I just dont feel Smith had a great playoffs. More so a great first series then got bailed out against the flames and exposed against Colorado. Although damn Colorado got some lucky bounces. Gotta be good to be lucky but yeesh.
I think Colorado exposed the entire Oilers team to a degree, Smith among them for sure. Generally agree thought that he was better against LA than he was against CGY than he was against COL.
I don’t think Smith had a ‘great’ playoffs either, but I thought he was good overall. You combined the CGY and COL series to get .890. He did have a .907 vs. CGY, which was respectable, and also a hell of a lot better than the guy on the other side.
I also tend to give some leeway to both goalies when the goal are flowing both ways, as they did often in the CGY and COL series.
Ya, I don’t disagree with your post but context is important instead of simply blaming the goalie for all evils that so many rush to.
You can’t have it both ways. Wins are team wins so don’t give the goalie credit but losses are all or mostly on the goalie. Too many Oiler fans think this way and this comments section is no different.
“Sincere thanks for all of your kind words yesterday about the new show,”
I guess the stations GM decided to pull a Woody.
Play JamiLowe on the same line, and extend their playing time / play the hell out of them.
(In this scenario Matty is JP.)
When I think JamiLowe….I wonder, is there enough oxygen in the booth? 🙂
Personalities aside, Do you prefer the larger group dynamic? Conversational vs. Free Solo?
Anyway, look forward to seeing what the “collaboration” creates.
#WillTheWholeBeGreaterThanTheSumOfIt’sParts
The media hate for the Oilers continues:
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/classless-bullsht-oilers-fans-call-out-thescore-sportsnet-tweets
Sportsnet is a broadcast partner and their parent company has the naming rights for the arena and… they chose to shit on the organization.
WTAF?! That’s brutal.
Fans seemed pretty even keeled calling that very unprofessional behaviour out
Yep – the bias and jealousy from the Eastern Media just confirmed.
Nurse badly injured; Draisaitl minus one leg; Yamamoto drilled maliciously by the Avs player; JP probably never recovered properly after his late regular season trip to IR.
All things considered Oilers did very well.
Warning wall of text.
I was going to write a post about shoulder mobility given the history of Oilers injuries for those interested in health, fitness and human performance. Given the news on Nurse let’s talk about mobility in the context of a hip.
Before we get into the hip let’s hammer out some definitions and ideas.
A joint is the intersection of 2 or more bones.
Muscles are attached to bones with tendons.
Bones are attached to other bones with ligaments.
Muscles, tendons, ligaments and bones are all tissues.
Injuries occur when the force applied to a tissue is greater than the capabilities of that tissue to absorb force. Force applied > Force absorbed = injury.
Mobility is the range of motion available at any given joint.
Active joint mobility is the range of motion at any given joint that an individual can control.
Passive joint mobility is the range of motion at any given joint that a therapist can move an individual through while relaxed.
The gap between active and passive mobility is generally where injury occurs due to the lack of motor control.
Closing the gap between active and passive mobility allows an individual more options for solving motor problems when they present themselves.
Ok back to the hip. The hip is the intersection of the pelvis and the femur. It is a ball and socket type joint. The hip can flex and extend. The hip can abduct and adduct. The hip can internally and externally rotate. The hip can circumduct (think draw a circle).
Hip flexion is the ability to bring the femur forward and up. Stand with your back against a wall and see how high you can lift your knee in the air. This is hip flexion. If you can’t clear hip height you have work to do.
Hip extension is the ability to move the femur behind you. Stand facing a wall with your right knee bent to 90 degrees and see how far you can push your heel behind you, no arching your back, keep your chest and pelvis on the wall.
Hip abduction is the ability to move the leg laterally away from the body. Stand with your right shoulder and hip against the wall and see how far you can move a straight left leg off to the side.
Hip adduction is the ability to move the leg towards (and across) the midline. Stand with your right shoulder and hip in a door frame and see how far you can move your left leg across your body.
Hip internal rotation is the ability to rotate the femur towards the midline of the body. Stand with your back against the wall and raise your right knee using hip flexion and see how far you can move your shin outward.
Hip external rotation is the ability to rotate the femur away from the midline of the body. Stand with your back against the wall and raise your right knee using hip flexion and see how far you can move your shin inward.
Hip circumduction is the ability to draw a circle with the femur while all other parts of the leg remain still, it is pretty much the combination of all the movements described above. Stand on a step with your right leg and straighten your left leg as much as you can and see how big of a circle you can draw with your left leg.
These are all examples of active joint mobility. If you have little to no movement in any one of these actions you are missing out on the functionionaly of the hip joint and will not have as many options available to you when a motor problem arises.
For example if you are unable to achieve adequate hip flexion, say you tore a hip flexor, it would be very difficult for you to recover from a stride. When a hockey player skates they push the ice away with hip extension and abduction and recover to take their next stride with hip flexion and adduction. There is obviously more going on here but taking away a major action of nearly all athletic movements will decrease the level of performance for any athlete. An impressive effort from Nurse.
This is awesome! Thank you
much appreciated!
At this point, I think it would be somewhat shocking if both don’t re-sign.
As far as the cap, the “escrow balance” is projected to be paid off for the 2024/25 season which would re-link the cap to 50% of HRR and, given where revenues are (and projected), there will be material increases to the upper cap limit – talk of near $100MM shortly thereafter.
I wish I could get in their heads to know to what degree they weigh staying with one franchise as a contributor to a legendary legacy.
I hope Gretzky is in their ear telling them his one great, private regret.
So long as they are close to a Cup I don’t see why they don’t resign. Brining a cup back to Canada, and to this franchise, has its own rewards internal to the history of the game, that would go beyond an appearance on SNL and a Cup in New York or Dallas or whatever. But that’s for them to discover on their own.
Why would this be downvoted? Disagreement with the thought or with the spirit of the thought? The writing?
McDavid and Draisaitl are too damn competitive to pull a Tavares as free agents.
If 3C is a “foundational piece”, we may want to add McLeod. I wonder which of McLeod and Nuge will be the main 3C in the years to come and which will be the rover?
I believe all three could, and should, be brought back.
If Jesse is traded, well, that’s not the end of the world as he does have real value and we know Holland will not give this player away for pennies.
Kane’s return, of exit, is a complete wild card and unkown. I really have no idea how this will play out. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is an Oiler in October, wouldn’t be surprised if he isn’t.
100% Kulak is worth a re-sign if the AAV is in the $2.5MM ball-park. I would love to get him for 3 X $2.25 (would even go 4). Like Ceci, these are for his prime years – 28-31/32.
I understand that Nurse and Keith are here and Broberg is likely ready but, as we saw this past season, and every season, defensive depth is key and, as we also see every season, the NHL is HARD on young d-men – Broberg WILL have ups and downs in an 82 game season. There is also the potential for Broberg go play considerable 3RD if Barrie is moved for cap reasons.
Yes, bring Malone back, on an AHL deal, like he’s been on for the last number of years – he is the captain of the Condors and a great veteran leader on that team (and a very good AHL player).
If we can’t sign Kane. I hope no way in hell he signs with the phucken phlegms
Hadn’t thought of that … if Gaudreau leaves, the Flames may check down to Kane. Watching Kane play for us has given me an appreciation for just how much I would not want to have Kane on the Flames.
Hasn’t Justin Mahe been the Oilers’ Manager of Analytics for like six years now?
Stats now, of course, are essentially a compilation or an extension of video, and it is pretty cool that we have two of the best video-analysis guys in the League working for us, one as head coach.
And we are talking about the pro scouting that identified Ceci, Barrie, Hyman etc, right? The incremental improvements made to the roster with a focus on skating and battle over Holland’s tenure have been quite laudable IMO. Would like more of it actually.
Stats aren’t for finding established vets we know how Kenny does that
Its for the not obvious cap efficient players
Barrie isn’t expensive per se, but for a guy used third pair he is very expensive
Was just going to post the exact same reply…
You can’t credit a scouting department for “identifying” Zach Hyman. He was 29 years old when he signed him at full price for seven years.
The idea that a scouting department identified an established vet is absurd. Zach Hyman is a very good hockey player and everyone already knew this when we signed him.
I’ve said many times the problem with Holland is that he only deals in established players. He rents at the deadline and signs vets in free agency. That’s it.
You don’t get any cap efficiency with this approach.
Scouting and analytics are to pick out the Sam Girard, Ryan Graves, Burakovsky, and Devon Toews from the Athanasious and Foegeles
Analytics are for finding market ineffiencies…that is, as LT mentioned…finding the next Michael Bunting.
Colorado has done this repeatedly with Devon Toews, Sam Girard and Valeri Nichushkin and Arturi Lehkonen as prime examples.
That’s two top 6 forwards and two top 4 defensemen for essentially peanuts.
Everyone knew about Devon Toews. Colorado had the cap space and the draft picks.
An analytics guru won’t help much without superior capology and draft pick accumulation.
There was a lot of chatter about Devon Toews being a Twitter analytics darling and a likely cap casualty before he was traded.
If we had kept our powder dry on the Athanasiou deal, we would have had a stronger offer than Colorado.
Yes Holland burns picks for players that obviously aren’t worth the spend
It costs later
This
Trade NHL quality players and get things back. The active trading teams accumulate picks a chips
The Oilers are awful at this, and devaluing and under valuing their own players is the base
There is a reason teams were calling about JP and Sammy. There is quality there at some level, hoping to catch them asleep at the switch, again
If everyone knew that Toews was an elite #1D he would have gotten far more that 2 second round picks in a trade.
There would have been a lineup.
Identified Zach Hyman?
In interviews during the playoffs, Hyman all but confirmed that the Oilers were his number one choice, once the Leafs made it clear they could sign him.
In interviews during the playoffs, Hyman all but confirmed that the Oilers were his number one choice, once the Leafs made it clear they couldn’t sign him.
The most worrying item this offseason is three of the org’s greatest weaknesses (contract negotiation, cap management, pro scouting) will all factor into the Kane decision.
It’s all well and good to say the team should find a younger, cheaper option than Kane but history has shown us that is much easier said than done for this team.
The Oilers struggled for years to find a W who has obvious chemistry with McDavid, provides consistent elite production, and brings so many intangibles this team was lacking on the boards and in the scrums.
Kane will be expensive but assuming he is on the straight and narrow for good, he is a known quantity and a proven solution. With McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Kane, the top two lines are elite and productive. Lose him and we’re right back to hoping a GM that signs the likes of Turris and Brassard will identify the ‘next’ Evander Kane.
My bet? Holland will trade what’s necessary to free up the space and sign Kane. If we know anything about the Dutchman, it’s that he’s not worried about aging players as cornerstones.
Does anyone know the true intricacies of Mike Smiths contract? Capfriendly (https://www.capfriendly.com/players/mike-smith) has it as a 35+ contract meaning the Oilers get no cap benefit from sending him down or having him retire as its of course a 2 year contract
BUT
CapFriendlys FAQ about contracts states that have this cap penalty the contract must be the two years or longer but also one of the following:
In 2021-22 Smith is getting 1.9 M salary and no bonuses and in 2022-23 Smith is getting 2.5 M. This means it isnt front loaded and doesnt have bonuses suggesting if Smith were to retire the Oilers would get full relief or if Smith were to be sent down they would get the 1.125 M relief meaning he would have a 1.075 M cap hit as the third option goalie.
I am just going off capfriendly so I could be wrong but seems the online verbal is different?
I did more digging and the 2020 MOU has a passage as follows:
64. 35+ Year Old Rule for Cap Counting
CBA §50.5(d)(i)(B)(5) shall have no application to a multi-year SPC that has: (1) total compensation (Player Salary and Bonuses) that is either the same as or increases from one League Year to the immediately subsequent League Year, and (2) a Signing Bonus, if any, that is payable in the first year of the SPC only.
The CBA passage it references is as follows:
All Player Salary and Bonuses earned in a League Year by a Player who is in the second or later year of a multi-year SPC which was signed when the Player was age 35 or older (as of June 30 prior to the League Year in which the SPC is to be effective), but which Player is not on the Club’s Active Roster, Injured Reserve, Injured Non-Roster or Non-Roster, and regardless of whether, or where, the Player is playing, except to the extent the Player is playing under his SPC in the minor leagues, in which case only the Player Salary and Bonuses in excess of $100,000 shall count towards the calculation of Averaged Club Salary
So basically the MOU states that if a contract fits a certain criteria (which Smiths does) then the passage about a nearly full cap hit for AHL assignment or Retirement does not apply meaning Smiths contract behaves as a normal player contract for the purposes of cap hits and reductions.
We’ve discussed this various times – the 35 plus rules do not apply to Smith’s contract as the MOU revised the rules to not apply unless the deal is front-loaded.
Full cap savings if Smith retires.
Thanks for the input/confirmation. Ive obviously missed it, Im sure there’s other users who are in the same boat as well.
I’ve often wondered which of the players (if any) read the posts here. I suspect there has to be a few. It’s like slowing down at the scene of an accident. You don’t want to but that damn curiosity.
With that in mind, it’s too soon for me to be discussing offseason moves. The wounds are too raw.
This team battled HARD and proved its critics wrong on a lot of fronts. That includes everyone in the org from players to coaches to management. The heart, effort, physicality and skill was there without a doubt. If anyone questions the heart of this core now, you clearly weren’t watching.
Lots of hate for Mike Smith today and that’s predictable. Goalies are like QBs. They get too much credit when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses. Personally I’m much more dissatisfied with the poor officiating. Pretty hard to win when you have to overcome the opposition AND the officials.
The Avs dominated the shot count in this series and as Smith correctly summarized, “They were coming in waves.” That’s a function of injuries, insufficient depth and this team’s never ending inconsistency when it comes to playing structured team defense.
This latter issue is the big one for me and honestly, it’s probably the best argument for signing a big name goaltender. This team has only ever thrived when they have a stellar goaltender capable of standing on his head and stealing games. It would seem to me a more achievable formula for winning is getting the team to play better D as opposed to hanging your G out to dry to go ‘run and gun’ but the Oil culture has long since defined itself as an offense first approach. Maybe this is why we have these massive final appearance droughts? Doubt anyone other than a Barry Trotz could change that but they’ve tried this with Hitchcock and Tippett and it didn’t take.
Hopefully the improved D we saw at the end of the regular season is a sign that Woodman can staunch the bleeding while maintaining the firepower.
Great season boys. Time to rest up, recharge and reload. You’ve glimpsed the mountain top. Next year you scale the summit.
Completely agree!
nice one
Guys getting down voted for agreeing with someone else. That pretty much says it all in regards to these groupthink social media mechanisms.
I remember vividly when the person with the most followers on Twitter was Katy Perry. I always try to keep that in mind when weighing the dubious value of ‘likes.’
Why do you care? Katy didn’t care. Validation is meaningful though. You’re important, BoP.
Imo the worthwhile validation is moving the conversation forward. If people are replying to your posts or they’re prompting new lines of enquiry, that’s a positive signal to me. Pressing a ‘like’ is perfunctory imo like applause.
Totally appreciate that mine is a minority opinion on this. These mechanisms are popular and are proven to drive user engagement. Unfortunately the behavioural science is not encouraging on their ability to improve discourse or engender mental wellbeing.
Personally I don’t care cos I’m secure enough in my beliefs to not need anonymous validation but I’m also empathetic enough to appreciate not everyone is as confident in their own opinions.
— well said. While on the one hand it doesn’t bother me to get down voted per se, as I am fairly big time in life and have an amazing family and confidence in my opinions with a varied set of interests hobbies and friends and not a user of social media so don’t crave it. I just don’t feel it’s the ethos of the blog or it’s creator. I like reading other commentary that is funny or opinionated, informed, or even outlandish and just wacky or interesting life stories and lessons. I don’t believe the voting adds any value or helps improve the dialogue and likely hinders it.
— Interesting comments create threads and uninteresting ones get ignored. The voting in a different colour creates a prominence: a sort of “all publicity is good publicity”. I prefer silence is golden.
* But this place is generally awesome, our host just a prince of a man whose legacy here has impacted all of us. So lucky to have him as part of our circles.
If it doesn’t bother you to get down-voted, due to you having the best life ever, then why do you consistently bring it up?
— hmmm: a few flagrant falsehoods in your reinterpretation of my comment in your response. I don’t know what provokes you. You’ve been a great participant on this blog.
— This blog has been a small piece of escapism with a host who I believe is in some ways a kindred spirit. I like posting on it and from time to time try to add something of substance. Sometimes like to ham it up and give hot takes and amplify. Other times joke or provide insight.
— I agreed with Pucks : so I try to add value. It’s nice to give weight to someone whose opinion you agree with. And try to perhaps nudge things along. Different opinions are good.
— My mentions of dislike of the buttons for the sake of the blog that I care about come from a good place. Not about me, but about my feelings for what I believe are the core of what makes Lowetide special: so I’m invested.
Good for you taking the high road.
Bottom line: Does no good to complain and Colorado was the better team full stop.
**********************************************************************
Well put.
I said it at the start of the playoffs as well.
Playoff reffing will be *horrific* next year as well. Bank on it.
And the year after that
And the year after that
And the year after that
You mean the WWE Battle Royal?
LT said…
It is pretty evident from this paragraph that there is no real fix for the goaltending out there. None of the options are clearly better or clearly healthier than Smith. Comrie and Sandstrom are not making it through waivers either.
Nor do I think the organization thinks goaltending is as big an issue as Twitter does. I don’t doubt it is an area of concern and the goals coming in bunches will have the coach on high alert, but I doubt they have it as the very first priority.
It’s time to show commitment 100% to team defence and show faith in Skinner.
Injury Predictions:
1) Nurse – Torn hip flexor and knee tear
2) Draisaitl – high ankle sprain and thigh strain
3) McDavid – Wrist/hand injury
4) Puljujarvi – Shoulder and hip
5) Yamamoto – concussion/head
Various other ailments generally.
The consequences in part of a league that thinks the playoffs are the WWE Battle Royal…..
JP and hips
Might be time to get what you can. That isn’t going to improve if the injury is related to his surgery or they’re touchy etc
Poor kid
JP is 2 different people slapped together, the legs are still being controlled by the brain they were originally attached to.
Looking at Turning Tikkanese’s scary goalie shopping list that covers the next few years combined with watching Igor and Vasi carrying teams to the ECF, who here trades Bourgault for Wallstedt. Why or why not?
The Rangers 3rd line is:
Alex Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko.
Your team just iced Warren Foegele on the 3rd line.
As many, many, many analysts said last night – we were very much outmatched after our top 6.
If you trade Bourg. – besides Holloway- how are matching up with the Rangers 3rd line next year?
Last night with 2 top 6 wingers out completely gutting the skill from the bottom 6.. Slow clap.
Oh for sure. Like terrible reffing – injuries are a part of the post season.
Holloway-Nuge-Yamamoto?
Maybe. I love Kailer.
But for the 2nd playoff in a row – his size is/was a factor.
Yamamoto has to be permanently moved ot the 3rd line. In the playoffs, he cannot survive in the top 6.
I tend to agree.
You mean because he got injured? I thought he was quite decent in this years playoffs.
I agree. I thought he was good.
But, at the same time, as a few people talked about prior – I am not surprised he got injured. I was genuinely afraid for him last playoff run and I thought even prior to the injury – he was again taking a physical beating.
I agree with Godot – he is probably more suited for adding some skill and tenacity on a 3rd line.
Yeah people talk about him getting injured all the time.
Missing the last 2 vs COL, he’s now missed 10 total games in 2.5 years (incl playoffs) since he was called up (out of 190-something the team has played iirc).
I don’t think the injury thing is an issue, though I also agree he’s not the ideal top 6 winger.
Anyway, this started with who could the Oilers counter Lafrenière-Chytil-Kakko with, and I think that trio, or similar would do fine.
Skinner is the best goalie prospect in the AHL who is ready. Skinner is the backup goaltender. One has to look for someone to replace Smith who is significantly better than Smith
I am expecting Price 50% retained for Barrie, Puljujarvi, Smith,and the 1st.
Ugggghhhhhhhhhhh
I hate the guide and record book
Price is injury prone and done Godot.
“expect” does not equal “endorse”