It’s uncertain the Edmonton Oilers will use pick No. 29 at the 2022 NHL draft next month, but as of now it is in the team’s possession. This draft is all over hell’s half acre in ranking after the top-10 overall, and Tyler Wright’s skill drafts in the last two seasons may offer some clues about this season. The Oilers need a RH defenseman with hair on his ass and a mean streak, plus a future No. 1 goalie and a PF who can be NHL-ready next week. It’s probably not realistic to expect the team to grab anyone with that kind of resume at No. 29. Let’s have a look at how things might go.
Is 320 minutes of NHL playing time enough sample to make the call on a player? https://t.co/wsQHoyUpEC
Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers
ROUND ONE
No. 1 Montreal Canadiens: RC Shane Wright, Kingston (OHL). He lost a season of development but remains the class of 2022’s talent pool. Complete skill set, natural goal scorer with speed and well developed two-way game. He’s going to be a fine player.
No. 2 New Jersey Devils: LW Juraj Slafkovsky, TPS (Liiga). The Devils have been drafting impressive centers and defensemen since 2015, while hobbling goalies three at a time to stay in the draft lottery. This time the team grabs a 6.04, 218 PF from Slovakia and add to an impressive list of young talent.
No. 3 Arizona Coyotes: LC Logan Cooley, US National Team (USHL). The Coyotes fall into a brilliant offensive talent Red Line Report compares to Trevor Zegras. Undersized (5.10, 174) but he’ll push the river, even in the desert.
No. 4 Seattle Kraken: RW Matthew Savoie, Winnipeg Ice (WHL). He’s 5.09, 175 of high octane offense, he’s an excellent passer and has a great shot. Something of a whirling dervish with the puck on his stick in the offensive zone, he’s a threat always. I have him No. 2 in the draft.
No. 5 Philadelphia Flyers: RC Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Djurgardens (SHL). Skill winger, has a great shot and delivered offense everywhere he played in 2021-22. Great skater, can make plays at high speed and is a July 2004. We might look back on the 2022 draft and wonder why he wasn’t chosen first overall.
No. 6 Columbus Blue Jackets: RD Simon Nemec, Nitra (Slovak). Effective defensively, shows a great range (coverage, grit) and can pass the puck well. He has a complete skill set, and enjoyed a strong WHC’s. I have him No. 3 overall but I think he’ll slide outside the top five.
No. 7 Ottawa Senators: RW Joakim Kemell, JyP (Liiga). Pure scorer with a great shot and ability to create and cash scoring chances. Had a shoulder injury during the year, but his numbers (15 goals in 39 Liiga games) scream offensive ability.
No. 8 Detroit Red Wings: LW Cutter Gauthier, US National Team (USHL). Power forward with scoring ability, his shot is his main offensive weapon. Skates well, wins battles, can cycle. He is 6.02, 189 and has enough talent to go top-five if a team is looking for his skill set.
No. 9 Buffalo Sabres: LW Isaac Howard, US National Team (USHL). Underrated talent who was emerging as the season ended. Great forechecker, pure scorer, takes advantage of the smallest window of opportunity. He is a little under the radar due to usage early in the season but the Sabres need what he brings.
No. 10 Anaheim Ducks: RD David Jiricek, Plzen (Cze). He’s 6.03, 189 and a November 2003 birthday. Mobile, rugged, moves the puck well, big shot, defends well and is mature for his age. He could go much higher, my mock has the top-end skill guys dominating the top 10 this year.
No. 11 San Jose Sharks: LC Conor Geekie, Winnipeg Ice (WHL). Any team looking for a big, impressive center will have Geekie on their list and he could go top 10. Smart player who can both finesse his way to a goal and run over an opponent to get the job done. Soft hands, 70 points in 63 games this season.
No. 12 Columbus Blue Jackets: LC Marco Kasper, Rogle (SHL). He has the complete range of skills. Dominant against kids his own age, he was also effective in the SHL, scoring 7-4-11 in 46 games. Smart player, he and Geekie begin a fairly large group of first-round forwards who are quality but lack the elite potential of earlier picks. Kasper is a safe pick, he’ll play and likely in the top-six.
No. 13 New York Islanders: LD Kevin Korchinski, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). At 6.02, 185, he’s a a rangy defenseman who posted 61 assists in 65 WHL games. Great speed, outlets, can defend expertly. He could go higher but there’s no way Lou lets him get past No. 13 overall.
No. 14 Winnipeg Jets: LD Denton Mateychuk, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Slightly undersized, his skating is top drawer and effective on offense and defense. He’s exceptional at finding outlet opportunities and creatiing offense in a heartbeat. Good defender. I have him No. 8.
No. 15 Vancouver Canucks: LD Pavel Mintyukov, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Big mobile defender is a major presence when he’s on the ice. Scored well (67 games, 17-45-62) in the OHL this season, leading his team in points. Two-way player, plays in all situations. Used to call these players “rangy” because they get to everything.
No. 16 Buffalo Sabres: LC Brad Lambert, Lahti (Liiga): Great speed and skill, but the offense dried up two years ago and hasn’t returned. His point totals in the Liiga the last three seasons (15, 6, 4) is going the wrong way. Anyway, Buffalo and Arizona are two teams that often take risks, so Lambert lands here in my mock draft.
No. 17 Nashville Predators: LC Jiri Kulich, Karlovy (Cze): Great skater, he spiked in rankings with a ridiculous showing during the U18’s, delivering nine goals in six games. He has a great set of skills and could be viewed as a steal five years from now.
No. 18 Dallas Stars: RW Danila Yurov, Magnitogorsk (MHL). Fine skater, terrific release will allow him to score in every league and he’s a quality passer and playmaker. Has some gumption in his game, could go higher it’s difficult to estimate how much the Russian situation will impact kids at the draft.
No. 19 Los Angeles Kings: RW Jimmy Snuggerud, US National Team (USHL). First-shot scorer can score from a distance. He can win battles, makes smart decisions and belongs with the team US National Team prospects this year, his skating keeps him from being higher on the list.
No. 20 Washington Capitals: LW Ivan Miroshnichenko, Omsk (VHL). One of the best pure scorers in the draft, his Hodgkin’s Lymphoma diagnosis stunned the hockey world and plummeted his draft stock. He might be the best player in the draft, the Capitals (and with the New York area teams) are the most likely to take him in my opinion.
No. 21 Pittsburgh Penguins: RC Frank Nazar, US National Team (USHL). Played for a loaded team and won a feature role, finishing third in scoring. Great speed, hands and he has offensive ability. Has some issues in puck protection and will need to manage his game in a more mature way.
No. 22 Anaheim Ducks: LW Liam Öhgren, Djurgardens (Swe Jr). High octane scorer with a quick release and a sixth sense around the net. Has two-way acumen at a young age, Red Line compares him to Mark Stone. He could go higher if a team sees him as a complete winger.
No. 23 St. Louis Blues: RW Jagger Firkus, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Undersized skill forward is productive across the board and a nightmare for opposition defensemen. He’s good at finding seams in passing lanes to make or accept passes and can win battles despite being 5.10, 154.
No. 24 Minnesota Wild: LC Luca del bel Belluz, Mississauga Steelheads (OHL). Impressive two-way center exploded on the scene this year and grabbed a top job with a strong team. Smart player, fine skater with soft hands. A team that likes him may grab him in the mid-teens if they believe he’ll land on a skill line as a center in the NHL.
No. 25 Toronto Maple Leafs: RD Ty Nelson, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Undersized defenseman who has great wheels and exceptional offensive ability. Also a good defender despite lack of size and could go much higher. He has considerable range as a defender.
No. 26 Montreal Canadiens: RD Maveric Lamoureux, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). An actual giant (6.07, 197), Lamoureux is a project but some team will happily take the risk. Wingspan of a Condor, skates well, has good offensive instincts and strong in battles along the wall.
No. 27 Arizona Coyotes: LD Lane Hutson, US National Team (USHL). Listed as 5.09, 148, he’s a little ball of brilliance. Great skater, ridiculous passer, creative with the puck in every area of the ice. Makes good players look bad with his brain and puck moving ability. Exceptional talent.
No. 28 Buffalo Sabres: LD Owen Pickering, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Impressive defenseman with size and skill as a puck mover and passer. A bit of chaos in his defensive game but has all the elements NHL teams look for in two-way types.
No. 29 Edmonton Oilers: RW Filip Mesar, Poprad (Slovak). Speed demon, undersized and dynamic. He plays in the top Slovak league, has terrific speed and is a highly creative playmaker. His scouting report resembles Ales Hemsky at the same age.
No. 30 Winnipeg Jets: RD Tristan Luneau, Gatineau Olympique (QMJHL). Impressive skater with fine passing skills, effective on the defensive side of the puck. Could go higher, but the pure skill players probably go in front of Luneau.
No. 31 Tampa Bay Lightning: LW Kirill Dolzhenkov, Krasnaya (MHL). He’s 6.06, 234 and has tremendous skill. I’m not sure we’ve seen his type before. Have we seen a fast Coke Machine with brains, skill and determination?
No. 32 Arizona Coyotes: LW Rutger McGroarty, US National Team (USHL). Big, strong winger who plays hard every shift. If you’re going to beat him, better pack a lunch because it’ll take you all day. Speed the only downside, he has enough skill to land on an outscoring third line, maybe more.
CONDORS
Bakersfield signed five players to AHL deals this week. LC Luke Esposito (one-year), LD Yanni Kaldis (one-year), RW Dino Kambeitz (two years), LD Alex Peters (one-year) and LD Darien Kielb (one-year, AHL/ECHL) are all worthy of their contracts. The Oilers have used the minor-league deal as a stepping stone to a future NHL contract for a long time, but under Ken Holland it’s become part of the pipeline. In the last several months, Vincent Desharnais and James Hamblin both moved up the depth chart with NHL contracts. It’s an interesting wrinkle.
Given the apparent wide variability in lists, trading #29 (and we should be clear that this is pick 29, not Nummer 29, which is insane) there could be above average value there. In the same what that a top 15/20 on LT’s list may still be there, a top 15/20 may be there from another team, and may want to give up assets.
The Duke of Hafford
June 19, 2022 1:33 am
What would the cost for Anderson be? What if the Oilers trade the first round pick and Jesse for Anderson and $1 million retained. Would Anderson at $4.5 million be worth it? Would the Oilers have to add more?
I think you’re over valuing Anderson by quite a huge margin. Montreal should be providing all the sweeteners in a deal like that.
AsiaOil
June 19, 2022 1:29 am
Tristan Luneau has been my pick for a few months, but if he’s gone, I could get on board with Maveric Lamoureux if he’s still around. We need RD in the system.
This is also why we can’t trade Barrie next year even if some of his skills are duplicated by Bouch. His experience is not covered by Bouch and one injury on the right side creates chaos without Barrie.
You also don’t trade down for the hell of it, just to get more picks. Look at the MacT draft where he traded down multiple times, acquired more lower picks, and nothing came of it except Slepychev. Then they threw him away for nothing after spending all the development time.
You trade down a bit (like 2021) if you know a prospect(s) you really like will still be on the board and it gets you an extra lottery ticket for free. You never do it unless you know you will get a guy you really like lower down or you get an actual NHL player and a lower pick. The latter case may make some sense this year if Holland can get a cheap useful bottom 6 forward and a 2nd round pick out of the deal.
Munny 2.0
June 19, 2022 12:12 am
I don’t disagree with the thesis that Keith is not great defensively. As long as we agree it is a thesis, an opinion, and we are willing to explore and tolerate the range of opinions.
D are incredibly hard to evaluate. I like looking at scoring chances allowed rates and at HD attempts allowed rates. Combine with comp faced and DFF.
Now the problem here is that there is no such thing as individual numbers against like there is for scoring-chances-for and high-danger-for on NST. Which makes complete sense and should give people some indication about the true state of defense… but it is nonetheless still confounding when evaluation of an individual is the goal. Puckiq is helpful, but I don’t like making sample sizes smaller and the same individual stat problem is still there. Which isn’t to say there’s no value in what they do. I’m so happy the site exists, I use it a lot. But if I’m working for Sportlogiq or some such I’d be looking for the things that tell defenseman stories… sorties defended and successful clear percentage and zone entries prevented, net front battles won, corner battles won, outlet passing percentage…
Okay enough with disclaimer world… Duncan Keith:
He was 78th in the League 5v5 for HDCA rates. Two spots ahead of Adam Larsson. Top 4 over 32 teams is 128 Dmen. That ranking isn’t great, but he also played with a near rookie for a big chunk of that. Man, I wish we had some rush D numbers.
Puckiq has him playing third highest percentage against Elites after Nurse and Ceci.
His numbers against Elites though are horrible and that’s what brings his totals down. That number matches with the notion that the speed of top lines give him a problem (NB: that would not make him a lot different than many 2nd pairing guys). But other than that he’s fine, and other than Kulak, Keith has the best numbers of the team defending Gritensity.
He can do stuff. He’s fading, yes. He appears to be still 2nd pairing quality, but not top end. He’s likely to be third pairing for at least part of next season, regardless. Cap is high but in part he was brought in to get their psyche deeper into the playoffs. Mission accomplished.
Munny 2.0
June 18, 2022 11:28 pm
Cap structure on D for the four finalists in order of descending cap hit per pairing.
EDM
12.5M
6.4M
3.86M (assumes Kulak $3M, could be lower, paired with Bro)
_______
22.76M
Top two contracts: 14.788M (Keith’s cap hit expires in a season)
COL
13.1M
11.0M
1.7M
_______
25.8M
Top two contracts: 9 + 6 = 15M (E. Johnson’s contract expires in a season)
I was telling people IRL before last series that it was the real final. I thought Oil were capable of beating TBL. Anyways I got a lot of ribbing after getting swept. Mostly by friggin Flames fans too. I’m feeling a little better now lol.
…I’ll add part of the reason I was saying that was because I thought we’d come off the longer break a little healthier than we did. Add playing with injury to refs and the bounces.
Weren’t you the one talking up the Flames all season and how well they’d do in the playoffs?? You know, the team that got beat in 5 games the Edmonton “cannon fodder”…
We’ll just add St Louis to the ever expanding list of teams that you feel are better than the Oilers. When you throw numerous hooks in the water, one is bound to catch something right? Good on you champ.
They have a lot of players to get back under contract. A lot. And I’m hearing rumours Sakic will step aside for Chris MacFarland in the off-season.
Makar is the worrisome bit. The only thing that comforts me is that Sather never thought Coffey was essential. Oh and that Makar is pointless thus far in the the finals.
Here’s a riddle for the Archibald-Keith amoeba mafia:
The Hurricanes are a smart team and extended, long term, their version of JP (Kotkaniemi) for a cap hit of 4.8 mil / year.
In light of the projections I did on JP — Cole’s Notes: JP can “pop” with slightly better luck and half the internal improvement he demonstrated this past year — why are you afraid of going long on the player?
You’ve seen the Avs with Nichushkin. You have the ‘Canes with Kotkaniemi. And…the cap is going up!
Not only that, but Kassian, Foegele, and Barrie all (comparatively) suck!
I know I’ve had run-ins with the idiocracy, but surely we can agree on the benefits and sheer joy of a good Pool Party?
Your downvotes, as always, are cherished and held proudly, even affectionately.
I’m all for keeping Bison K but he doesn’t have the same game as Nicushkin, or the hands
He’s not going to suddenly develop into a dangler or shooter. He’s capable of 20 goals for sure but probably not every year, and especially not if he doesn’t get top 6 or PP, he has to play with good players to produce like most guys
I think the other Finn’s contract is too much for JP who is also not a centre. 3M x 5/6 all day
Agree with most of your post. Just wanted to add, I think it’s quite likely this year was Nichushkin’s career season, and that he probably won’t be a 20 goals every year guy either (this was his 1st year with more than 14, at age 27). Still a quality player though for sure.
Why are you lumping the Keith and Archibald lovers in the same basket?
I don’t mind Keith for 1 year at 5.5 million, but I’ve always considered Archibald a 4th liner at best.
Do I have to like them both?
I didn’t say anything about worth his cap hit – I responded to the point re: second pairing d-man (and, well, essentially laughing at those that think he played to that level this past season).
1 – If JP breaks out — as I said, he may do just on the basis of better luck — the price goes wayyyyy up.
2 – JP breaking out doesn’t give you any certitude that he’s not a one year wonder *if* you don’t believe in the player now.
3 – Cap is going up. JP at 4.8 long term is a steal when he breaks out, and becomes even better value down the road.
4 – Locking up a premier forward for 4.8 is a rare opportunity. It’s analogous to signing Kane to 2.1 million for a year. JP could be more valuable on the basis of his all around game.
I think $4.8M x 8 years is too much for Puljujarvi.
He’s a good player today, but nothing close to a ‘premiere’ one, IMO. I agree he should improve some from where he is today, but there’s no guarantee he’ll ‘break out’, or ever be a premiere player (and I don’t think he’s worth $4.8M right now).
His SH% (I think your luck argument was based on that?) this season is in line with the rest of his NHL career, and IIRC he shot under 10% in Finland and in the AHL as well. It’s quite possible his 13% shooting percentage from last season is more the anomaly than his 9% from this season (or not, but there isn’t a strong track record to say this year is the outlier).
His scoring rates are fine, but even being stapled to McDavid he scored like a mediocre 2nd line forward. I was looking up his scoring numbers and happened to notice that he was 380th of 402 forwards this past season in IPP (individual points percent). He’s quite a useful player, but he’s very much a 3rd wheel offensively.
In terms of Puljujarvi potentially being more valuable than Kane (or do you mean more valuable even at the salary numbers you listed?), I think it’s possible he could be more valuable at some point, but it’s not particularly likely. If you watched the last half of the season and the playoffs and think they’re close in value/usefulness right now, then we clearly see the world very differently. I guess that much is clear by now anyway.
The actual smartest men in the room don’t proclaim to be the smartest men in the room. No idea why people feel the need to make everything a black and white discussion. The way you’ve framed this not sure why anyone is even engaging in this discussion.
I’m not proclaiming that I’m the smartest in the room, just that the Oilers do dumb things and they’re about to do another.
Btw, I’ve openly praised Holland for some of his moves. I like Woodcroft but believe he had some sensational blind spots vs the Avs.
I’m made out to hate everything they do, but have lauded the drafting of Holloway, Bourgeault (did not and still do not think they erred in not picking a goalie). I support the Nurse extension, which is deeply unpopular here.
Do I disagree with the direction at times? Yes. However, painting me as a a black and white figure is ironically more black and white than my actual record.
Randle McMurphy
June 18, 2022 1:38 pm
Four questions for the group.
!) Do we raise a banner for advancing out of the Pacific Division in the playoffs?
2) Does whoever signs Kuzmenko to the Entry Level Contract retain his rights after the one year contract expires? In other words does he become an RFA for the rights-holder?
3) What is your favorite colour?
4) What is the air velocity of an unladen swallow?
Yes, I believe they will be raising a banner (I heard that on one of the pods/shows a while back)
Kuzmenko will be a UFA after his one-year deal expires.
Last edited 2 years ago by OriginalPouzar
€√¥£€^$
June 18, 2022 1:34 pm
For the past 4 years I’ve thought that Michael McLeod to be a good low-value target of opportunity. He is a very good RH FO man, but he does not produce much offense and while he doesn’t bleed chances, he doesn’t win that war. He is 6’3”, much more physical than his brother and with comparable speed. But I wonder how he would do on a better team with an improvement on his left wing.
So if he, along with long-time teammate Nathan Bastian on his RW were to be acquired for Jesse, who would say no?
Here is my proposal:
To NJ:
JP (unsigned) + Foegele
For:
Michael McLeod (Ryan’s bro) 1 yr @ $975 K + Nathan Bastian 1 yr @ 825 K + Jaromir Pytlik (on Reserve List until July 2024) + 2022 2nd Rounder (#37) + 2022 4th Rounder (#102).
My target for 4th line LW is Johan Larsson and would like to sign him to a 3 x $1,250,00 deal. He can player Center and cover the 3C spot, as necessary.
I would have Yamo at 3 RW and try to sign Mason Marchment as 3 LW, with Ryan McLeod as 3 C.
I think Michael can be a 15 goal guy and Bastian is 17-20 goal guy + brother + long-time teammates all. Chemistry is not a tangible thing but I think it floats boats.
I see these guys as having a lot more offence than they’ve shown so far in the pros. At least as much as Foegele.
Ideally if you build your team this way your offensively inclined call-ups get to play with skill, rather than being stapled to the less-skilled players.
Most importantly a sturdy bottom 6 will propel this team to greater heights. I am from the Cult of Jesse, but I am worried about him ever putting it all together.
Mason Marchment knows these guys + Ryan McLeod from Misissauga (and McDavid from Erie & Hyman from Marlies & TML). I think he would be the JP replacement.
Ultimately if you can build an elite 4th line, the world is your oyster.
Sure, chemistry, and sure, those guys may develop more.
I still don’t see how that trade is worth doing. McLeod and Basitan, even if they develop, are not as good as Puljujarvi is right now, and would basically be equals to Foegele. Recall that McLeod and Basitan are both 24, just like Puljujarvi. You can’t reasonably project any more growth from them than you can from Puljujarvi.
Your trade cleared some cap, that you used (theoretically) nicely. I just think clearing Foegele’s cap for a draft pick, and keeping Puljujarvi or trading him for something than McLeod/Bastian, would put the Oilers further ahead than the trade you propose.
My concern is that Jesse is a square peg. Sure the early successes of him and the team really put him in a good position with his teammates. But once he stopped scoring his personal quirks and the missed shots and the 500 mph passes and being in the way really starts to irk the big dogs.
I think if you bring in more capable, high IQ players to play throughout the line-up, it doesn’t matter if Jesse is even a 60 or 70 point player in 2-3 years.
Maybe he hits 25 goals and 55 points elsewhere, it doesn’t really matter if he doesn’t mesh well with his mates. If they get that elusive 60% RH face-off man & PKer with size and wheels in his prime who fits in really well for the next 7 or 8 yrs, that is a vast improvement on what has been here over the past 16 years. And this deal would be well-worth it.
I’ve been rooting for JP since the very beginning, but he doesn’t really fit, unless he produces.
I also think a change of scenery where he can get away from the daily scrutiny would be the best thing that could happen to him.
Yeah if you don’t think Puljujarvi fits with the team then it kind of makes sense. I’m not convinced there are real issues there, but even if there are I still don’t get Bastian and McLeod as the targets.
These are two extremely mediocre NHL players. As Holland said about Puljujarvi, they’re ‘young, but not that young’. They were 12th and 13th in 5v5 TOI for the 28th place team in the league. They didn’t outscore or outshoot anyone. McLeod is good on FOs and plays on the PK. Bastian doesn’t PK but played almost 2 minutes on the PP. He still only had 16 points this year, McLeod 20. Even with their special teams minutes they were 11th and 13th in TOI/game, for a poor team.
Puljujarvi is worth more than that IMO. Either of those guys straight up for Foegele could make sense, because they’re cheaper.
Anyway, we can agree to disagree. For the most part I like your targets (these guys as 4th liners, Larsson, Marchment if he’s a reasonable price). I just think you could get McLeod and Bastian for less than Puljujarvi and Foegele, and that you could get more for Puljujarvi than this (or of course, keep him).
Here is what I’ve got rattling around in my Fantasy GM Brain (I’ve tweaked the bottom 6 a bit, from my previous post and added a couple of players that I covet):
CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster
FORWARDS (12)
Right wing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,125,000) – Nino Niederreiter ($4,000,000) – Mason Marchment ($3,000,000) – Michael Mcleod ($975,000)
Centre: Connor McDavid ($12,500,000) – Leon Draisaitl ($8,500,000) – Ryan McLeod ($1,225,000) – Victor Rask ($1,000,000)
Left wing: Zach Hyman ($5,500,000) – Andrei Kuzmenko ($925,000) – Yakov Trenin ($2,500,000) – Johan Larsson ($1,250,000)
DEFENSE (6)
Right: Cody Ceci ($3,250,000) – Colin Miller ($3,000,000) – Evan Bouchard ($863,333)
Left: Darnell Nurse ($9,250,000) – Brett Kulak ($2,250,000) – Duncan Keith ($5,538,462)
GOALTENDER (2)
Kevin Lankinen ($1,250,000) – Stuart Skinner ($750,000)
AHL BURIED (2)
Derek Ryan ($125,000) – Philippe Myers ($1,425,000)
BUYOUTS (2)
James Neal ($1,916,667) – Andrej Sekera ($1,500,000)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)
Milan Lucic ($750,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
Salary Cap: $82,500,000
Bonus Overages: $896,000
Cap Hit: $81,714,462
Cap Space: $785,538
And these are the transactions that got me here:
Retirement Smith, Mike —————————
to EDM
2022 2nd round pick (NYI)
To ARI Barrie, Tyson——————to EDM 2022 6th round pick (CGY)to BUF Koekkoek, Slater ——————-
to EDM Gildon, Max
to FLA Lavoie, Raphael ———————-
to EDM Mcleod, Michael Bastian, Nathan,Pytlik, Jaromir [Reserve List]
2022 2nd round pick (NJD)
2022 4th round pick (EDM)
to NJD Puljujärvi, Jesse [RFA Rights] Foegele, Warren
—————————-
to EDM Tschigerl, Sean [Reserve List]
2022 5th round pick (TOR)
to ANA Kassian, Zack Klefbom, Oscar
2023 3rd round pick (EDM)
———————-
to EDM Trenin, Yakov [RFA Rights] Myers, Philippe
2022 3rd round pick (LAK)
to NSH Yamamoto, Kailer Kemp, Philip
2022 2nd round pick (NYI)
Yup, I traded our two beloved young RFA right wingers….
A Keith retirement sure would improve the roster…
All the prospects need more ripening, so none have made the team, but none were traded either. And this team has picks in every round 😀
Last edited 2 years ago by €√¥£€^$
Randle McMurphy
June 18, 2022 12:31 pm
Our little man Nail Yakupov is 28 yrs old now.
Gee they grow up fast.
Bling
June 18, 2022 11:22 am
It is deeply unpopular and I may be wrong, but the Oilers are yet again embarking on a summer of misadventure that, yet again, has very little to do with winning hockey games.
1) moved in to negotiations with Woodcroft to bring him (and Manson) back.
2) asked Smith and Keith to let them know early if they are coming back.
3) moved on to the 4-team short list of Kuzmenko who can only be signed to a one-year ELC. A no risk signing given ELC parameters cap this year’s cap hit and the only contract negotiation is level of performance bonuses and, if he hits any, the ELC is slam dunk value deal
4) spoken to Gerry Joahanson to start talks re: re-sighing Kulak
5) expressed interest in re-signing Kane and will be talking to Milstein on that next week
6) seemed non-commital on Jesse’s futurue with the team
Six is the only negative and its really talking to the player and his agent re: contract, role, etc. and figuring out what the parties are thinking.
I know you said “I may be wrong” but, again, this is criticizing management before they’ve made any bad moves (or “not made good moves that were known available)”, no?
I would add: even if you give management zero credit for it, the team has done a pretty reasonable job of the ‘winning games’ part over the last few years.
Jettisoning JP and even thinking about Anderson is asinine.
Points 1-5 are obvious even to the single celled amoebas who downvote my posts. Yes, let us weigh decisions like, “is Kane good?” the same as, “is JP good?”
Great that the Oilers are so keen on bringing back third pairing dman Kulak or…gulp…could it be he’s better than a 3LHD? It sure would be easier to afford him if Duncan Keith weren’t draining the cap (prepares for onslaught of downvotes from Duncan Keith fanbois)
Why no talk about actually managing the cap? That means finding homes for Kassian, Foegele, and Barrie.
Btw, yes I will criticize the Oilers for dumb ideas that percolate from the hive mind. Increasingly, that hive mind and the one here are becoming increasingly indiscernible.
As much as Stauff has talked about Anderson, he has said just as much about the Oilers “will have more cap space than we think”.
You focus on Anderson and ignore the intel from the same person that surrounds “Why no talk about actually managing the cap? That means finding homes for Kassian, Foegele, and Barrie.”
so what is your definition of progress?…as I see it we are one of the last four teams standing which is progress…but I may not be as smart as you think you are
Bling
June 18, 2022 11:20 am
LT, have always wondered:
What is your breaking point as a fan? Is there any move or series of moves that would make you go, okay I’m done.
Or, does covering the team with more frequency numb you to all the terrible decisions that are talked about and/or made?
Unless those other players were injured, too. Nobody who posts on the internet has more information available to them than the coaching staff. Jay Woodcroft has proven himself to be an extremely intelligent coach who had one of the best winning percentages in the NHL. But fans know better than him lol.
Mostly a lot of ill-informed speculation from what I’m reading; basing the discussion on publicly available information rather than the facts and knowledge that Jay would have been using to make his decisions. Nobody is saying you can’t comment as you feel necessary OP — no need to create a straw man.
Wow, you did not provide a rebuttal that was based on any factual evidence but act as though you just mic dropped. Your argument is thinner than gruel.
It’s a great question, and I’ll give you my answer. Now, when I do this, sometimes people come back at me and say my words are not genuine, so I want you to know this is exactly how I feel.
As a lifelong Montreal Expos fan, I know how bad things CAN get. Misery always has another layer.
I’m in a phase of my life where I thoroughly enjoy the process of team building no matter where it is in the chain. I have also allowed myself to observe more than just the local teams, meaning that the Bruins win in 2011, the Eagles in 2018, even the Oilers making the Stanley in 2006 and the final four this year, are moments in time I value.
I think my love of the game has changed, and for me it’s like a journey. I don’t know if Connor McDavid will win a Stanley Cup in Edmonton, or even if the Oilers will win one again in my lifetime.
I enjoy the transactions, and the draft, and being critical of Holland and then watching his team go to the final four.
Edmonton should win the Stanley during 97’s first 11 seasons, and if they don’t, then it’s a failure for all involved. I believe that to be true.
I don’t believe in yelling or screaming about any of it, because they’re all doing their best.
I said on draft day that one Stanley Cup in the McDavid era would be grand, and do understand how disappointing it has been to watch it frittered away.
My hope is that someday the Oilers as an organization will commit to doing the things that help in winning. I also think that will only come after McDavid.
Most of all, I would like to see a win for the fans. Old guys like me have no right to bitch really, but anyone who didn’t wander across someone’s lawn after a SC win, or go downtown and acted a fool, both of which I did, or get drunk and cry with their friend Lorne (also me), well I’d like that for each of you.
I’m pretty sure there is nothing that would stop me from being a fan short of the shenanigans that Chicago has suffered under.
I honestly believe management does what they believe to be best even when it is so obvious they are wrong (see Peter C), it’s hard to win in this league.
I loved McTavish but some of his comments throwing Salo under the wheels of the bus were not acceptable. Kevin Lowe, another guy I know bleeds Oiler blue, but he let his pride get in the way of the Comrie/Perry trade.
We all know the mistakes this team has made and do not see the same thing other teams have done.
We beat on this team everyday because we have seen the promised land. How would you like to be a Canuck fan, or Arizona. San Jose. The friggin’ Rags waited 45 years before winning in 1994. It is now close to another 30 years that they have not won the cup.
It’s tough to win a cup. Teams go generations without it. I have my five, I hope my kids get five.
— This was illuminating! I’m at a stage of life where I don’t consume much sport on TV. I attend live basketball and baseball for client stuff.
— For sure if there was no Lowetide, my interest in Oilers would be vastly reduced.
— I like the analysis of the moves. The ability to judge management using the same lense info for real companies.
— when the oilers won when I was a kid I just assumed they would win 10.
— Expos too we’re my first love of sports team. That strike year killed any chance of them staying. They were the best team in baseball at that moment.
My 2 favourite pitchers were Steve Rogers who played his entire 13 year career in Montreal. The other pitcher was Dave Stieb who played 15 years in Toronto and 1year in Chicago. That just doesn’t happen anymore.
How many no hitters did he lose with 2 out? I think it was 3 the missed no hitters were sad to watch. When Stieb was on he was a master in a Steve Carlton or Jim Palmer way.
OriginalPouzar
June 18, 2022 10:59 am
If retained, the Oilers are expecting the arbitration-eligible winger to make roughly $3 million in salary next season.
This reminds me a lot of the Jake DeBrusk situation; And few people here wanted DeBrusk at his qualifying offer price.
I think the Bruins re-signed him near the qualifying offer price in order to trade him. As it turned out he upped his game and they are probably happy now that they didn’t move him.
Yup. I was one of (maybe the main one) who wanted the Oilers to go after DeBrusk last summer when he was coming off a poor season and, of course, got a lot of push back because of his poor numbers.
The thing is is that it is easy to justify going after top end guys coming off of great seasons until the cap consideration is taken into account. Finding value contracts is the part that separates the GM’s into tiers.
I wouldn’t trade Jesse this summer unless there is a clear win for a young player in a position of need. He is hardly in the ‘never trade’ bin but he is more than a few notches above ‘throw in’ as well.
Hard to get value after a disappointing season but Holland has to find out the number that will keep him here and happy and if it is too high then he has to go shopping.
On the other hand a two year deal affords you the opportunity to “develop” him for one more year, see what you’ve got, and still retain his rights at the end of the season.
The 3rd year (plus any extra years) is hedging on upside – its seems unlikely to happen at this point.
winston
June 18, 2022 10:45 am
Just spitballing here,
is there any appetite oilers trading for Chychrun…if so, I’d imagine significant asset going the other way. However, since we have ~2-3 year window to win the cup, might be worth the ask??
As long a none of Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgault are going the other way, and Barrie is in the deal.
#29 pick, Barrie, Samorukov, and one of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi or Foegele.
I don’t think Arizona would do that though.
YYCOil
June 18, 2022 10:29 am
I attended a WHL awards luncheon many years back. At my table was some other sponsors, the academic player of the year and Ken King (prior President of the Flames). As the lunch wore on King asked the young hockey player three questions.
1.How many minutes do you play on the top line? (A. 6 minutes)
2.How many minutes do you spend in the gym? (A. 2 hours a day)
3.What size his feet were? (Size 9)
Ken’s only comment was IF you play, you will play undersized. The player and Ken both understood it was an uphill battle to play in the NHL.
More reports of possible Josh Anderson and JP trades.
Hmmm. I was criticized for making too much of “rumors”, but you can bet that Bob Stauffer is an organizational mouthpiece.
This team is obsessed with stupid ideas. It is truly incredible. Although, judging by the reaction to my JP posts yesterday, a significant portion of the fanbase is as or more clueless than Holland.
Their fingers are sore from downvoting my posts and their hands from clapping wildly for Archibald and Keith 🙂
How can there be more going on rumour wise with JP and Josh Anderson than with Kassian, Barrie, Foegele?
The Oilers are Stranger Things and this off-season is the Upside Down. The analogy fails a bit because Stranger Things is well produced and written while the Oilers are terribly managed.
The oilers were looking like they might not make the Playoffs again until power forward Kane and then the Coaching change happened. Oilers seem to value a physical player playing with Connor and Leon going all the way back to Maroon. I could easily see Anderson added if Kane is too pricey.
Anderson has never scored 50 pts in any NHL season. Kane was on pace to score 50+ goals as an Oiler.
If the choice is give up JP to get Josh Anderson, We all (OP) better be praying we re-sign Evander Kane and not quibble too much over $1m or a 4th year.
When Anderson is effective he’s playing full tilt. I believe he scores between 30-40 playing with Connor and Leon. The big problem is his style of play leads to injuries then he becomes invisible unless he plays a power game. Evander on the other hand seems to play a style that doesn’t lead to any major injuries. Evander was just getting comfortable to end the season he would definitely not surprise anyone scoring 40-50 Goals on the Oilers.
Anderson is a better version of Foegele. And maybe a little meaner
The issue for me is handling the puck. Both don’t have a lot of dangle. Foegele skates straight at D and often loses control of the puck. Anderson drives wide and often can’t get anything done
Kane has way more game and hands than Anderson who also has injury issues
I have him No. 2 in the mock draft, but No. 7 in my rankings. It’s always math on my list. I have Joakim Kemell ahead of Slafovsky, both played in the Liiga but Kemell had far superior numbers and there are no good reasons beyond size to place Slafvosky ahead of Kemell.
I expect Slafvosky to go in the top three. I never expect my rankings to match anyone else. My rankings rely heavily on math.
OriginalPouzar
June 18, 2022 9:54 am
Out of the 5 AHL re-signs, I would say that Darien Kielb has the best shot at earning an NHL contract at some point. He only played a hand-full of games but he turned my head, that’s for sure.
Kaldis is fairly dynamic offensively but at his size and age, I don’t see an NHL contract in his future. Dino K. is NOT James Hamblin light but should have a solid AHL career. Luke Esposito is a great Condor and may take over from captain when Malone moves on. Alex P. is not the next Vinny Deharnais but a good 6/7D at the AHL level.
AMD
June 18, 2022 9:42 am
I would take Noah Ostlund at #29 if he was available, I’m guessing he’ll be long gone before #29
I did notice though that you have more Dmen in your first 32 picks than usual (including two RHD in the top 10 )….or maybe it just feels that way? Tweak the algorithm?
I sincerely hope it’s specifically one of these guys; I would be happy for you.
Also, if you’re going to take a risk on an undersized player, the last 7 picks of Round One and the first 15 picks of Round 2 is where the chance of extreme value often comes into play imo
Either of those guys would have to be considered home runs at #29.
Darryl8843
June 18, 2022 9:00 am
I would be surprised if the Oilers have there pick draft day. The time to win is clearly now and there’s to many needs to not use that pick as a way of filling one of them.
I think its more likely that its traded down for 2+ picks.
I mean, if its attached to Barrie to bring back Varlamov and Mayfield (give or take), OK but, trading it on its own it money it for no money out and that could be troublesome this off-season.
Essentially that was my point. Trading the the first round pick plus to get a needed piece for today. Although pics are important the window is open now and we can’t really wait 3 to 4 years for a player to develop when that asset could help win the Cup.
Randle McMurphy
June 18, 2022 8:59 am
Is 320 minutes of NHL playing time enough sample to make the call on a player?
One of my favourite comments (I don’t remember the exact quote) from Glen Sather was that the only real skill you needed to be a successful General Manager in the NHL was the ability to spot talent sooner than anybody else – that you could hire people for every other aspect of the job.
I think Glen would say that 320 minutes was more than enough for him. No idea about Holland.
Munny 2.0
June 18, 2022 8:55 am
Is 320 minutes of NHL playing time enough sample to make the call on a player?
Make what kind of call?
In general, though, not with our stats or lack of health information. Not even close. JW or another coach could probably suss it out with 320 minutes of video, given broad enough usage of the player in question… and if they knew how healthy the player was, how adjusted he was if new to the team, how his personal life is going… all the factors that can confound performance.
Typically at 320 minutes, eyes had better be involved, IMO. Our stats fool us all the time at one year sample sizes. 16 games of first line time isn’t near enough data to say anything “for sure”.
A good test of this would be to give two advanced stats heads two different 320 min samples from one player.
For eg, Get two Puljujarvi samples. One pre-Xmas and post-All-star break and then have the two statsheads you give their opinion on the player based on their samples… style, strengths, weaknesses etc.
Relatedly, I’m approximately 100% sure (read: 95+%) that the only reasons Benson wouldn’t be re-signed by the Oilers are:
1) some team pays an asset for him, or
2) the player asks to become a UFA to seek a second opinion (which may or may not be granted).
Haha so you should just never draft an undersized player? I understand trading down and the need for overall size on the Oilers, but it seems short sighted to dismiss a player simply due to size.
He’s taller and already 20 lbs heavier than yamamoto…
NEW for The Athletic: How Edmonton Oilers would benefit from signing Andrei Kuzmenko
https://theathletic.com/3371783/2022/06/18/edmonton-oilers-andrei-kuzmenko-rumours-benefit/
Given the apparent wide variability in lists, trading #29 (and we should be clear that this is pick 29, not Nummer 29, which is insane) there could be above average value there. In the same what that a top 15/20 on LT’s list may still be there, a top 15/20 may be there from another team, and may want to give up assets.
What would the cost for Anderson be? What if the Oilers trade the first round pick and Jesse for Anderson and $1 million retained. Would Anderson at $4.5 million be worth it? Would the Oilers have to add more?
I think you’re over valuing Anderson by quite a huge margin. Montreal should be providing all the sweeteners in a deal like that.
Tristan Luneau has been my pick for a few months, but if he’s gone, I could get on board with Maveric Lamoureux if he’s still around. We need RD in the system.
This is also why we can’t trade Barrie next year even if some of his skills are duplicated by Bouch. His experience is not covered by Bouch and one injury on the right side creates chaos without Barrie.
You also don’t trade down for the hell of it, just to get more picks. Look at the MacT draft where he traded down multiple times, acquired more lower picks, and nothing came of it except Slepychev. Then they threw him away for nothing after spending all the development time.
You trade down a bit (like 2021) if you know a prospect(s) you really like will still be on the board and it gets you an extra lottery ticket for free. You never do it unless you know you will get a guy you really like lower down or you get an actual NHL player and a lower pick. The latter case may make some sense this year if Holland can get a cheap useful bottom 6 forward and a 2nd round pick out of the deal.
I don’t disagree with the thesis that Keith is not great defensively. As long as we agree it is a thesis, an opinion, and we are willing to explore and tolerate the range of opinions.
D are incredibly hard to evaluate. I like looking at scoring chances allowed rates and at HD attempts allowed rates. Combine with comp faced and DFF.
Now the problem here is that there is no such thing as individual numbers against like there is for scoring-chances-for and high-danger-for on NST. Which makes complete sense and should give people some indication about the true state of defense… but it is nonetheless still confounding when evaluation of an individual is the goal. Puckiq is helpful, but I don’t like making sample sizes smaller and the same individual stat problem is still there. Which isn’t to say there’s no value in what they do. I’m so happy the site exists, I use it a lot. But if I’m working for Sportlogiq or some such I’d be looking for the things that tell defenseman stories… sorties defended and successful clear percentage and zone entries prevented, net front battles won, corner battles won, outlet passing percentage…
Okay enough with disclaimer world… Duncan Keith:
He was 78th in the League 5v5 for HDCA rates. Two spots ahead of Adam Larsson. Top 4 over 32 teams is 128 Dmen. That ranking isn’t great, but he also played with a near rookie for a big chunk of that. Man, I wish we had some rush D numbers.
Puckiq has him playing third highest percentage against Elites after Nurse and Ceci.
His numbers against Elites though are horrible and that’s what brings his totals down. That number matches with the notion that the speed of top lines give him a problem (NB: that would not make him a lot different than many 2nd pairing guys). But other than that he’s fine, and other than Kulak, Keith has the best numbers of the team defending Gritensity.
He can do stuff. He’s fading, yes. He appears to be still 2nd pairing quality, but not top end. He’s likely to be third pairing for at least part of next season, regardless. Cap is high but in part he was brought in to get their psyche deeper into the playoffs. Mission accomplished.
Cap structure on D for the four finalists in order of descending cap hit per pairing.
EDM
12.5M
6.4M
3.86M (assumes Kulak $3M, could be lower, paired with Bro)
_______
22.76M
Top two contracts: 14.788M (Keith’s cap hit expires in a season)
COL
13.1M
11.0M
1.7M
_______
25.8M
Top two contracts: 9 + 6 = 15M (E. Johnson’s contract expires in a season)
TBL
13.625M (old contracts)
7.750M
1.7M
_______
23.075M
Top two contracts: 7.875 + 6.750 = 14.625M (Sergachev RFA hammer nextseason)
NYR
12.5M
10.5M
.925M + a player to be named later
_______
23.925M+
Top two contracts: 9.5 + 8.0 = 17.5M (have to re-sign K’Andre next season)
=================
None of the above includes bonuses.
Our numbers look good and we have more space coming in just one season.
In light of the current 2-0 Avs advantage vs Tampa, suddenly Oilers banged up as they were vs the Avs don’t look like such a bad team for next season.
Starting to think the real final happened in the last round
I was telling people IRL before last series that it was the real final. I thought Oil were capable of beating TBL. Anyways I got a lot of ribbing after getting swept. Mostly by friggin Flames fans too. I’m feeling a little better now lol.
Even though we got swept there was a lot of ref and puck luck help
but having smith as g didn’t help
Avs made Vassy look a lot like Smith tonight.
…I’ll add part of the reason I was saying that was because I thought we’d come off the longer break a little healthier than we did. Add playing with injury to refs and the bounces.
Apparently the cup should been awarded in the 2nd Round to St. Louis if Binnington wasn’t intentionally run and injured by Kadri.
The real final was when Colorado beat St.Louis.
Edmonton and Tampa are just cannon fodder.
Weren’t you the one talking up the Flames all season and how well they’d do in the playoffs?? You know, the team that got beat in 5 games the Edmonton “cannon fodder”…
You’re a joke.
A man walked into a bar with a frog on his head…..
The bartender shouted “what in the hell is that?”
The frog said, “I don’t know, but it started out as a bump on my ass.”
We’ll just add St Louis to the ever expanding list of teams that you feel are better than the Oilers. When you throw numerous hooks in the water, one is bound to catch something right? Good on you champ.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Never change, DSF.
Just wait until the Canucks…oh shit…
Just wait until the Kings…oh shit…
Just wait until the Flames…oh shit…
HOW DO YOU LIKE THE AVALANCHE MY NEW FAVOURITE TEAM
heeheeheeheeheee
Everyone needs a bloody hobby.
Only a few days ago you called Tampa a hockey titan.
Throw a tea kettle over the pub, that’s the real quiz.
Ha!
Joe Sakic escapes being fired for two more days.
Let’s see if running up the score doesn’t light a fire under Tampa’s butt and they hold serve at home.
So, you’re saying four more days then.
Tampa will hold serve. Boook it!
NHL reffing is pathetic. How does the lightning not get a penalty out of all this? You knew the Avs would get the extra. Lightening started the scrum
WWE Battle Royal lol
Seven zip.
The motion picture “A Waste of Eight Days” continues principal filming…
After two @ 5v5 (30 mins total toi), COL’s digits:
CF 69.05%
FF 73.08%
SF 73.91%
SCF 76.19%
HDCF 83.33%
Is it our “plan” to wait until the Avalanche dynasty is over?
Cause if not, me may need to trade ALL the picks and a few prospects.
#BuySomeCapSpace
They have a lot of players to get back under contract. A lot. And I’m hearing rumours Sakic will step aside for Chris MacFarland in the off-season.
Makar is the worrisome bit. The only thing that comforts me is that Sather never thought Coffey was essential. Oh and that Makar is pointless thus far in the the finals.
Heh.
Heh.
And that’s how you reverse hex a player in one fluid motion… the universe knows when it is unintended.
This is the problem with blind adoration of Holland/Woodcroft.
To win, even with McDrai, is a tall order and the execution must be top drawer. I haven’t seen that yet.
Paddy Maroon with the defensive play of the game. Gets back to lift a stick to save a goal crease-side on a jailbreak.
Followed by Nichushkin just missing the hattie with a backhand coming across the face of the goal.
Avs are making the Bolts look like the Oil.
And Helm beats Vassy from the top of the circle on a break. Not just Smith.
Tampa does not have 30 shots in the series yet.
Odd man break after odd man break. Ferraro: “it’s an onslaught”
Corey Perry is such a dirt bag.
He should of been our dirt bag for 14 seasons and 371 fricking goals.
Please Nichushkin, I beg of you. Stop.
refs decide they better get involved and give TBL a powerplay.
Macauley and Hebert, btw
Pull his string and he says “Ka Ching!”
Minute forty five to play and TBL finally has as many shots as COL has goals.
This has been even more dominant than Wednesday night…
So Perry takes matters into his own hands. Corey Perry doing Corey Perry things. And smehow Kuemper gets a penalty out of it too… My Gord, how?
Burakovsky makes it 3-0
Looked like Rantanen played for the rebound off the pads to set him up.
Is that you Joe?
Absolutely ridiculous how quickly Colorado exits the zone when they get possession.
The Blues slowed them down, Berube knows Playoff Hockey. Without the Binnington injury they take the series.
Nah.
I can’t believe these guys can lose a top 6 forward and top 4 D and still play that way. The perfect team.
The only thing they lack is an absolute #1 stud goaltender but Kuemper is certainly good enough.
That Bogo kids photo is the cutest thing.
Oh and Manson scores. Apparently can beat more than just Smith H2H.
And COL goes on the PP after forcing a panicked DoG
Jay Woodcroft, three years, via Kevin Weekes. Close and it’s fluid.
Great news.
Weekes reporting a 3-year deal with Woody is close.
https://twitter.com/KevinWeekes/status/1538269816741568513
He credits Stauff for having it first.
Here’s a riddle for the Archibald-Keith amoeba mafia:
The Hurricanes are a smart team and extended, long term, their version of JP (Kotkaniemi) for a cap hit of 4.8 mil / year.
In light of the projections I did on JP — Cole’s Notes: JP can “pop” with slightly better luck and half the internal improvement he demonstrated this past year — why are you afraid of going long on the player?
You’ve seen the Avs with Nichushkin. You have the ‘Canes with Kotkaniemi. And…the cap is going up!
Not only that, but Kassian, Foegele, and Barrie all (comparatively) suck!
I know I’ve had run-ins with the idiocracy, but surely we can agree on the benefits and sheer joy of a good Pool Party?
Your downvotes, as always, are cherished and held proudly, even affectionately.
I’m all for keeping Bison K but he doesn’t have the same game as Nicushkin, or the hands
He’s not going to suddenly develop into a dangler or shooter. He’s capable of 20 goals for sure but probably not every year, and especially not if he doesn’t get top 6 or PP, he has to play with good players to produce like most guys
I think the other Finn’s contract is too much for JP who is also not a centre. 3M x 5/6 all day
I wonder what Nichushkin’s hands were like when he had 9 goals in 79 games and then 0 goals (and 10 points) in 57 games????
I presume he “flubbed some pucks” during those seasons.
I think JP has a better defensive game.
Agree with most of your post. Just wanted to add, I think it’s quite likely this year was Nichushkin’s career season, and that he probably won’t be a 20 goals every year guy either (this was his 1st year with more than 14, at age 27). Still a quality player though for sure.
Why are you lumping the Keith and Archibald lovers in the same basket?
I don’t mind Keith for 1 year at 5.5 million, but I’ve always considered Archibald a 4th liner at best.
Do I have to like them both?
The Venn diagram isn’t a single circle but it’s real close.
Sounds like you’ve convince yourself the hotdog you’re eating is a steak sandwich.
Funny. The analogy is more apt for viewers believing Keith is top 4 or Archi top 9.
Keith was 52-38 goal (5 on 5) in the regular season – leading the defensive group, playing 2nd pairing minutes (3rd in TOI/G).
Much of this was due to the McDavid minutes but, my goodness, did McDavid’s scoring rates ever spike when with Keith.
I’ll say this on Keith: he can still move the puck, no question.
Defending? Not good enough. He gets beaten. By eye, and by stats, he is not a good zone entry defender.
Is that worth a 5 mil cap hit? For me, no. It may be that he costs the Oil one of JP, KY, Kulak, or Kane this year.
I didn’t say anything about worth his cap hit – I responded to the point re: second pairing d-man (and, well, essentially laughing at those that think he played to that level this past season).
So you favor 8 x $4.82M for Puljujarvi?
Yes.
1 – If JP breaks out — as I said, he may do just on the basis of better luck — the price goes wayyyyy up.
2 – JP breaking out doesn’t give you any certitude that he’s not a one year wonder *if* you don’t believe in the player now.
3 – Cap is going up. JP at 4.8 long term is a steal when he breaks out, and becomes even better value down the road.
4 – Locking up a premier forward for 4.8 is a rare opportunity. It’s analogous to signing Kane to 2.1 million for a year. JP could be more valuable on the basis of his all around game.
What do you think?
I think $4.8M x 8 years is too much for Puljujarvi.
He’s a good player today, but nothing close to a ‘premiere’ one, IMO. I agree he should improve some from where he is today, but there’s no guarantee he’ll ‘break out’, or ever be a premiere player (and I don’t think he’s worth $4.8M right now).
His SH% (I think your luck argument was based on that?) this season is in line with the rest of his NHL career, and IIRC he shot under 10% in Finland and in the AHL as well. It’s quite possible his 13% shooting percentage from last season is more the anomaly than his 9% from this season (or not, but there isn’t a strong track record to say this year is the outlier).
His scoring rates are fine, but even being stapled to McDavid he scored like a mediocre 2nd line forward. I was looking up his scoring numbers and happened to notice that he was 380th of 402 forwards this past season in IPP (individual points percent). He’s quite a useful player, but he’s very much a 3rd wheel offensively.
In terms of Puljujarvi potentially being more valuable than Kane (or do you mean more valuable even at the salary numbers you listed?), I think it’s possible he could be more valuable at some point, but it’s not particularly likely. If you watched the last half of the season and the playoffs and think they’re close in value/usefulness right now, then we clearly see the world very differently. I guess that much is clear by now anyway.
The actual smartest men in the room don’t proclaim to be the smartest men in the room. No idea why people feel the need to make everything a black and white discussion. The way you’ve framed this not sure why anyone is even engaging in this discussion.
I’m not proclaiming that I’m the smartest in the room, just that the Oilers do dumb things and they’re about to do another.
Btw, I’ve openly praised Holland for some of his moves. I like Woodcroft but believe he had some sensational blind spots vs the Avs.
I’m made out to hate everything they do, but have lauded the drafting of Holloway, Bourgeault (did not and still do not think they erred in not picking a goalie). I support the Nurse extension, which is deeply unpopular here.
Do I disagree with the direction at times? Yes. However, painting me as a a black and white figure is ironically more black and white than my actual record.
Four questions for the group.
!) Do we raise a banner for advancing out of the Pacific Division in the playoffs?
2) Does whoever signs Kuzmenko to the Entry Level Contract retain his rights after the one year contract expires? In other words does he become an RFA for the rights-holder?
3) What is your favorite colour?
4) What is the air velocity of an unladen swallow?
We are not the Canucks……..
Your mean Randle wants a participation ribbon.
Division champions has long been a banner?
Meanashell, are you in Montreal for the F1 race?
No. I did not go.
African or European swallow?
The Smythe Division banner used to be more difficult to get than the Cup. There are a number of them hanging.
If they had returned the names to their proper history, I’d certainly be in favor.
Yes, I believe they will be raising a banner (I heard that on one of the pods/shows a while back)
Kuzmenko will be a UFA after his one-year deal expires.
For the past 4 years I’ve thought that Michael McLeod to be a good low-value target of opportunity. He is a very good RH FO man, but he does not produce much offense and while he doesn’t bleed chances, he doesn’t win that war. He is 6’3”, much more physical than his brother and with comparable speed. But I wonder how he would do on a better team with an improvement on his left wing.
So if he, along with long-time teammate Nathan Bastian on his RW were to be acquired for Jesse, who would say no?
Here is my proposal:
To NJ:
JP (unsigned) + Foegele
For:
Michael McLeod (Ryan’s bro) 1 yr @ $975 K + Nathan Bastian 1 yr @ 825 K + Jaromir Pytlik (on Reserve List until July 2024) + 2022 2nd Rounder (#37) + 2022 4th Rounder (#102).
My target for 4th line LW is Johan Larsson and would like to sign him to a 3 x $1,250,00 deal. He can player Center and cover the 3C spot, as necessary.
I would have Yamo at 3 RW and try to sign Mason Marchment as 3 LW, with Ryan McLeod as 3 C.
Thoughts?
You’re hired!
Nay.
As outlined in a prior post, JP with a bit of improvement and some better luck is a legit first liner who is inexpensive.
The FAs look good if you can get them on reasonable deals.
But the trade.. haven’t you just traded a top 6 forward and a 3rd line forward for two 4th line forwards? (plus a couple of picks)
Even if you argue Puljujarvi is rightly a 3rd liner, the Oilers still clearly aren’t getting the best player in the deal.
I think Michael can be a 15 goal guy and Bastian is 17-20 goal guy + brother + long-time teammates all. Chemistry is not a tangible thing but I think it floats boats.
I see these guys as having a lot more offence than they’ve shown so far in the pros. At least as much as Foegele.
Ideally if you build your team this way your offensively inclined call-ups get to play with skill, rather than being stapled to the less-skilled players.
Most importantly a sturdy bottom 6 will propel this team to greater heights. I am from the Cult of Jesse, but I am worried about him ever putting it all together.
Mason Marchment knows these guys + Ryan McLeod from Misissauga (and McDavid from Erie & Hyman from Marlies & TML). I think he would be the JP replacement.
Ultimately if you can build an elite 4th line, the world is your oyster.
Sure, chemistry, and sure, those guys may develop more.
I still don’t see how that trade is worth doing. McLeod and Basitan, even if they develop, are not as good as Puljujarvi is right now, and would basically be equals to Foegele. Recall that McLeod and Basitan are both 24, just like Puljujarvi. You can’t reasonably project any more growth from them than you can from Puljujarvi.
Your trade cleared some cap, that you used (theoretically) nicely. I just think clearing Foegele’s cap for a draft pick, and keeping Puljujarvi or trading him for something than McLeod/Bastian, would put the Oilers further ahead than the trade you propose.
My concern is that Jesse is a square peg. Sure the early successes of him and the team really put him in a good position with his teammates. But once he stopped scoring his personal quirks and the missed shots and the 500 mph passes and being in the way really starts to irk the big dogs.
I think if you bring in more capable, high IQ players to play throughout the line-up, it doesn’t matter if Jesse is even a 60 or 70 point player in 2-3 years.
Maybe he hits 25 goals and 55 points elsewhere, it doesn’t really matter if he doesn’t mesh well with his mates. If they get that elusive 60% RH face-off man & PKer with size and wheels in his prime who fits in really well for the next 7 or 8 yrs, that is a vast improvement on what has been here over the past 16 years. And this deal would be well-worth it.
I’ve been rooting for JP since the very beginning, but he doesn’t really fit, unless he produces.
I also think a change of scenery where he can get away from the daily scrutiny would be the best thing that could happen to him.
Yeah if you don’t think Puljujarvi fits with the team then it kind of makes sense. I’m not convinced there are real issues there, but even if there are I still don’t get Bastian and McLeod as the targets.
These are two extremely mediocre NHL players. As Holland said about Puljujarvi, they’re ‘young, but not that young’. They were 12th and 13th in 5v5 TOI for the 28th place team in the league. They didn’t outscore or outshoot anyone. McLeod is good on FOs and plays on the PK. Bastian doesn’t PK but played almost 2 minutes on the PP. He still only had 16 points this year, McLeod 20. Even with their special teams minutes they were 11th and 13th in TOI/game, for a poor team.
Puljujarvi is worth more than that IMO. Either of those guys straight up for Foegele could make sense, because they’re cheaper.
Anyway, we can agree to disagree. For the most part I like your targets (these guys as 4th liners, Larsson, Marchment if he’s a reasonable price). I just think you could get McLeod and Bastian for less than Puljujarvi and Foegele, and that you could get more for Puljujarvi than this (or of course, keep him).
I’m calling it J.P to Carolina where he hooks up with his buddy Aho. Booook it!
Sounds like a formidable bottom 6 but who are the top 6? McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Hyman, Holloway? and ?
Here is what I’ve got rattling around in my Fantasy GM Brain (I’ve tweaked the bottom 6 a bit, from my previous post and added a couple of players that I covet):
CapFriendly.com Armchair-GM User-Generated Roster
FORWARDS (12)
Right wing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,125,000) – Nino Niederreiter ($4,000,000) – Mason Marchment ($3,000,000) – Michael Mcleod ($975,000)
Centre: Connor McDavid ($12,500,000) – Leon Draisaitl ($8,500,000) – Ryan McLeod ($1,225,000) – Victor Rask ($1,000,000)
Left wing: Zach Hyman ($5,500,000) – Andrei Kuzmenko ($925,000) – Yakov Trenin ($2,500,000) – Johan Larsson ($1,250,000)
DEFENSE (6)
Right: Cody Ceci ($3,250,000) – Colin Miller ($3,000,000) – Evan Bouchard ($863,333)
Left: Darnell Nurse ($9,250,000) – Brett Kulak ($2,250,000) – Duncan Keith ($5,538,462)
GOALTENDER (2)
Kevin Lankinen ($1,250,000) – Stuart Skinner ($750,000)
AHL BURIED (2)
Derek Ryan ($125,000) – Philippe Myers ($1,425,000)
BUYOUTS (2)
James Neal ($1,916,667) – Andrej Sekera ($1,500,000)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (1)
Milan Lucic ($750,000)
DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
Salary Cap: $82,500,000
Bonus Overages: $896,000
Cap Hit: $81,714,462
Cap Space: $785,538
And these are the transactions that got me here:
Retirement Smith, Mike —————————
to EDM
2022 2nd round pick (NYI)
To ARI Barrie, Tyson——————to EDM 2022 6th round pick (CGY)to BUF Koekkoek, Slater ——————-
to EDM Gildon, Max
to FLA Lavoie, Raphael ———————-
to EDM Mcleod, Michael
Bastian, Nathan,Pytlik, Jaromir [Reserve List]
2022 2nd round pick (NJD)
2022 4th round pick (EDM)
to NJD Puljujärvi, Jesse [RFA Rights]
Foegele, Warren
—————————-
to EDM Tschigerl, Sean [Reserve List]
2022 5th round pick (TOR)
to ANA Kassian, Zack
Klefbom, Oscar
2023 3rd round pick (EDM)
———————-
to EDM Trenin, Yakov [RFA Rights]
Myers, Philippe
2022 3rd round pick (LAK)
to NSH Yamamoto, Kailer
Kemp, Philip
2022 2nd round pick (NYI)
Yup, I traded our two beloved young RFA right wingers….
A Keith retirement sure would improve the roster…
All the prospects need more ripening, so none have made the team, but none were traded either. And this team has picks in every round 😀
Our little man Nail Yakupov is 28 yrs old now.
Gee they grow up fast.
It is deeply unpopular and I may be wrong, but the Oilers are yet again embarking on a summer of misadventure that, yet again, has very little to do with winning hockey games.
So far the Oilers management are KNOWN to have:
1) moved in to negotiations with Woodcroft to bring him (and Manson) back.
2) asked Smith and Keith to let them know early if they are coming back.
3) moved on to the 4-team short list of Kuzmenko who can only be signed to a one-year ELC. A no risk signing given ELC parameters cap this year’s cap hit and the only contract negotiation is level of performance bonuses and, if he hits any, the ELC is slam dunk value deal
4) spoken to Gerry Joahanson to start talks re: re-sighing Kulak
5) expressed interest in re-signing Kane and will be talking to Milstein on that next week
6) seemed non-commital on Jesse’s futurue with the team
Six is the only negative and its really talking to the player and his agent re: contract, role, etc. and figuring out what the parties are thinking.
I know you said “I may be wrong” but, again, this is criticizing management before they’ve made any bad moves (or “not made good moves that were known available)”, no?
I would add: even if you give management zero credit for it, the team has done a pretty reasonable job of the ‘winning games’ part over the last few years.
Yes jp, I’m not sure what 97 and 29 would have done were they not riding on Holland’s coattails!
They were likely enjoying the assistance provided by the likes of Kane, Hyman, Nuge, Ceci, Kulak, even Keith, even Barrie, etc.
Jettisoning JP and even thinking about Anderson is asinine.
Points 1-5 are obvious even to the single celled amoebas who downvote my posts. Yes, let us weigh decisions like, “is Kane good?” the same as, “is JP good?”
Great that the Oilers are so keen on bringing back third pairing dman Kulak or…gulp…could it be he’s better than a 3LHD? It sure would be easier to afford him if Duncan Keith weren’t draining the cap (prepares for onslaught of downvotes from Duncan Keith fanbois)
Why no talk about actually managing the cap? That means finding homes for Kassian, Foegele, and Barrie.
Btw, yes I will criticize the Oilers for dumb ideas that percolate from the hive mind. Increasingly, that hive mind and the one here are becoming increasingly indiscernible.
As much as Stauff has talked about Anderson, he has said just as much about the Oilers “will have more cap space than we think”.
You focus on Anderson and ignore the intel from the same person that surrounds “Why no talk about actually managing the cap? That means finding homes for Kassian, Foegele, and Barrie.”
So if people disagree with your opinion, they are single-cell amoeba? Interesting perspective that you have.
Bling you seem down on the direction of the team. Curious if you could make moves to bring in two players, who would they be.
I want JP back on a long term deal and Husso as a goalie in a tandem with Skinner.
The question to ask is if Woody, Holland, and the core want that…..
Your goalie tandem dreams are rather pitiful.
Knowing Holland he’ll pick up Calvin Pickard and be done.
so what is your definition of progress?…as I see it we are one of the last four teams standing which is progress…but I may not be as smart as you think you are
LT, have always wondered:
What is your breaking point as a fan? Is there any move or series of moves that would make you go, okay I’m done.
Or, does covering the team with more frequency numb you to all the terrible decisions that are talked about and/or made?
Of course, fans/bloggers talking about moves that would be “terrible decisions” does not equate to management itself, right?
The Keith move alone is costing the Oilers flexibility to move on Kane, JP, and Kulak.
The insistence on playing Archibald in the playoffs was dumb as bricks.
Kassian could have been dumped last off season and the resultant cap space exploited this very off season.
Your serve, OP, please, keep hitting it into the net.
We can talk about past moves but, of course, and as evidenced by your other posts, you are criticizing what your prediction of moves.
Playing Malone over Archibald (and a swath of other) was the dumber move.
Unless those other players were injured, too. Nobody who posts on the internet has more information available to them than the coaching staff. Jay Woodcroft has proven himself to be an extremely intelligent coach who had one of the best winning percentages in the NHL. But fans know better than him lol.
I don’t disagree on Jay Woodcroft but are you implying that fans can’t discuss, and criticize, individual decisions he’s made?
What are we doing here?
Mostly a lot of ill-informed speculation from what I’m reading; basing the discussion on publicly available information rather than the facts and knowledge that Jay would have been using to make his decisions. Nobody is saying you can’t comment as you feel necessary OP — no need to create a straw man.
Wow, you did not provide a rebuttal that was based on any factual evidence but act as though you just mic dropped. Your argument is thinner than gruel.
Q: “What is your breaking point as a fan? Is there any move or series of moves that would make you go, okay I’m done.”
A: One more post from Randle.
(to be fair, only on some days……days that end in “y”)
It’s a great question, and I’ll give you my answer. Now, when I do this, sometimes people come back at me and say my words are not genuine, so I want you to know this is exactly how I feel.
As a lifelong Montreal Expos fan, I know how bad things CAN get. Misery always has another layer.
I’m in a phase of my life where I thoroughly enjoy the process of team building no matter where it is in the chain. I have also allowed myself to observe more than just the local teams, meaning that the Bruins win in 2011, the Eagles in 2018, even the Oilers making the Stanley in 2006 and the final four this year, are moments in time I value.
I think my love of the game has changed, and for me it’s like a journey. I don’t know if Connor McDavid will win a Stanley Cup in Edmonton, or even if the Oilers will win one again in my lifetime.
I enjoy the transactions, and the draft, and being critical of Holland and then watching his team go to the final four.
Edmonton should win the Stanley during 97’s first 11 seasons, and if they don’t, then it’s a failure for all involved. I believe that to be true.
I don’t believe in yelling or screaming about any of it, because they’re all doing their best.
I said on draft day that one Stanley Cup in the McDavid era would be grand, and do understand how disappointing it has been to watch it frittered away.
My hope is that someday the Oilers as an organization will commit to doing the things that help in winning. I also think that will only come after McDavid.
Most of all, I would like to see a win for the fans. Old guys like me have no right to bitch really, but anyone who didn’t wander across someone’s lawn after a SC win, or go downtown and acted a fool, both of which I did, or get drunk and cry with their friend Lorne (also me), well I’d like that for each of you.
Very nice post. Thank you.
The only thing I could add is that “it can’t get any worse” is always wrong.
Enjoy the good days when they come.
Very much enjoyed your post LT.
I’m pretty sure there is nothing that would stop me from being a fan short of the shenanigans that Chicago has suffered under.
I honestly believe management does what they believe to be best even when it is so obvious they are wrong (see Peter C), it’s hard to win in this league.
I loved McTavish but some of his comments throwing Salo under the wheels of the bus were not acceptable. Kevin Lowe, another guy I know bleeds Oiler blue, but he let his pride get in the way of the Comrie/Perry trade.
We all know the mistakes this team has made and do not see the same thing other teams have done.
We beat on this team everyday because we have seen the promised land. How would you like to be a Canuck fan, or Arizona. San Jose. The friggin’ Rags waited 45 years before winning in 1994. It is now close to another 30 years that they have not won the cup.
It’s tough to win a cup. Teams go generations without it. I have my five, I hope my kids get five.
I will always be a fan of this team.
— This was illuminating! I’m at a stage of life where I don’t consume much sport on TV. I attend live basketball and baseball for client stuff.
— For sure if there was no Lowetide, my interest in Oilers would be vastly reduced.
— I like the analysis of the moves. The ability to judge management using the same lense info for real companies.
— when the oilers won when I was a kid I just assumed they would win 10.
— Expos too we’re my first love of sports team. That strike year killed any chance of them staying. They were the best team in baseball at that moment.
Blue Monday was brutal. Why did Fanning bring in Steve Rogers for the ninth when Jeff Readon was the closer.
Reardon got lit up in Game 1, I don’t think Fanning went back to him.
Your right I think he tweaked his back.
My 2 favourite pitchers were Steve Rogers who played his entire 13 year career in Montreal. The other pitcher was Dave Stieb who played 15 years in Toronto and 1year in Chicago. That just doesn’t happen anymore.
I thought during Stieb’s career many times that he was the Jays’ Rogers. Had a better career but the Jays were also a better team.
How many no hitters did he lose with 2 out? I think it was 3 the missed no hitters were sad to watch. When Stieb was on he was a master in a Steve Carlton or Jim Palmer way.
If retained, the Oilers are expecting the arbitration-eligible winger to make roughly $3 million in salary next season.
https://theathletic.com/3371704/2022/06/18/edmonton-oilers-jesse-puljujarvi-trade-rumours/
Sound about right and, frankly, he may be a massive value contract at that price – he outplayed that cap hit for half the season.
This reminds me a lot of the Jake DeBrusk situation; And few people here wanted DeBrusk at his qualifying offer price.
I think the Bruins re-signed him near the qualifying offer price in order to trade him. As it turned out he upped his game and they are probably happy now that they didn’t move him.
Jesse at 2 x $3m is a reasonable bet imo.
Anything significantly less would be value.
Yup. I was one of (maybe the main one) who wanted the Oilers to go after DeBrusk last summer when he was coming off a poor season and, of course, got a lot of push back because of his poor numbers.
The thing is is that it is easy to justify going after top end guys coming off of great seasons until the cap consideration is taken into account. Finding value contracts is the part that separates the GM’s into tiers.
I wouldn’t trade Jesse this summer unless there is a clear win for a young player in a position of need. He is hardly in the ‘never trade’ bin but he is more than a few notches above ‘throw in’ as well.
Hard to get value after a disappointing season but Holland has to find out the number that will keep him here and happy and if it is too high then he has to go shopping.
Personally I am hoping they keep him.
Edit: “Jesse at 2 x $3m (and NO TRADE PROTECTION) is a reasonable bet imo.”
I would note that 2 years walks him right to UFA status – 1 or 3+ would be preferable.
Yes. Good point.
On the other hand a two year deal affords you the opportunity to “develop” him for one more year, see what you’ve got, and still retain his rights at the end of the season.
It doesn’t matter. 2 years will likely come with the lowest AAV for both years.
The 3rd year adds unnecessarily to the AAV.
One year contract. One takes arbitration risk in the 2nd year. If Jesse breaks out this year, OIlers in a pickle with the cap next year.
Two years. Fixed cost for two years based on current performance. I would argue this is the best path for the Oilers.
Three years. One begins paying for optionality, which drives up the AAV this year and next year.
If Jesse breaks out, one will have to pay him after three years anyways. Being forced to pay him after two years is no big deal.
The cap should begin rising in two years.
The 3rd year (plus any extra years) is hedging on upside – its seems unlikely to happen at this point.
Just spitballing here,
is there any appetite oilers trading for Chychrun…if so, I’d imagine significant asset going the other way. However, since we have ~2-3 year window to win the cup, might be worth the ask??
If the Oilers are going to spend big assets to upgrade the D, it needs to be on a RD.
I would think the main piece going back would be Broberg, plus the 1st, plus…..
We are just about to get value out of Broberg’s ELC.
As long a none of Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgault are going the other way, and Barrie is in the deal.
#29 pick, Barrie, Samorukov, and one of Yamamoto or Puljujarvi or Foegele.
I don’t think Arizona would do that though.
I attended a WHL awards luncheon many years back. At my table was some other sponsors, the academic player of the year and Ken King (prior President of the Flames). As the lunch wore on King asked the young hockey player three questions.
1.How many minutes do you play on the top line? (A. 6 minutes)
2.How many minutes do you spend in the gym? (A. 2 hours a day)
3.What size his feet were? (Size 9)
Ken’s only comment was IF you play, you will play undersized. The player and Ken both understood it was an uphill battle to play in the NHL.
Did the player make it? (And we’re his WHL numbers impressive to even suggest he would?)
It has been a bit but I think he had a 99% GPA and 112 points
Jeff Nelson perhaps? 113 points in 91-92, back-to-back CHL scholastic player of the year, brother of Todd Nelson.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/21479/jeff-nelson
More reports of possible Josh Anderson and JP trades.
Hmmm. I was criticized for making too much of “rumors”, but you can bet that Bob Stauffer is an organizational mouthpiece.
This team is obsessed with stupid ideas. It is truly incredible. Although, judging by the reaction to my JP posts yesterday, a significant portion of the fanbase is as or more clueless than Holland.
Their fingers are sore from downvoting my posts and their hands from clapping wildly for Archibald and Keith 🙂
How can there be more going on rumour wise with JP and Josh Anderson than with Kassian, Barrie, Foegele?
The Oilers are Stranger Things and this off-season is the Upside Down. The analogy fails a bit because Stranger Things is well produced and written while the Oilers are terribly managed.
More of that JP and Anderson speculation today.
https://theathletic.com/3371778/2022/06/17/barry-trotz-jeff-petry-lebrun/?source=user_shared_article
DeBrincat to LAK is an intriguing possibility.
The oilers were looking like they might not make the Playoffs again until power forward Kane and then the Coaching change happened. Oilers seem to value a physical player playing with Connor and Leon going all the way back to Maroon. I could easily see Anderson added if Kane is too pricey.
I know you know this, but do the Oilers know that Kane and Anderson are in completely different echelons as players?
It’s like saying Todd Marchant and McDavid are similar because they’re both fast.
Anderson has never scored 50 pts in any NHL season. Kane was on pace to score 50+ goals as an Oiler.
If the choice is give up JP to get Josh Anderson, We all (OP) better be praying we re-sign Evander Kane and not quibble too much over $1m or a 4th year.
I would much rather pay Kane $7MM for 3 years than Anderson $5.5MM for 5.
Yes. Kane is elite and Anderson is not.
When Anderson is effective he’s playing full tilt. I believe he scores between 30-40 playing with Connor and Leon. The big problem is his style of play leads to injuries then he becomes invisible unless he plays a power game. Evander on the other hand seems to play a style that doesn’t lead to any major injuries. Evander was just getting comfortable to end the season he would definitely not surprise anyone scoring 40-50 Goals on the Oilers.
Anderson is a better version of Foegele. And maybe a little meaner
The issue for me is handling the puck. Both don’t have a lot of dangle. Foegele skates straight at D and often loses control of the puck. Anderson drives wide and often can’t get anything done
Kane has way more game and hands than Anderson who also has injury issues
Stauff spitballs stuff on his platfrom all the time and the vast majority of it proves to be just that, Stauff’s thoughts.
There is no doubt of his place in the org but, absolutely not, his postulating should not be taken as the word of the org.
Rumours was a good Fleetwood Mac album.
Roasting management for “Rumours” seems like so much work. I’m gonna save my energy for roasting them when they actually do something, or don’t.
@LT
I’ve been wondering why you have been fading Slafkovsky.
Every mock draft I’ve seen has him going #1 or #2 while your list has him much lower.
I have him No. 2 in the mock draft, but No. 7 in my rankings. It’s always math on my list. I have Joakim Kemell ahead of Slafovsky, both played in the Liiga but Kemell had far superior numbers and there are no good reasons beyond size to place Slafvosky ahead of Kemell.
I expect Slafvosky to go in the top three. I never expect my rankings to match anyone else. My rankings rely heavily on math.
Out of the 5 AHL re-signs, I would say that Darien Kielb has the best shot at earning an NHL contract at some point. He only played a hand-full of games but he turned my head, that’s for sure.
Kaldis is fairly dynamic offensively but at his size and age, I don’t see an NHL contract in his future. Dino K. is NOT James Hamblin light but should have a solid AHL career. Luke Esposito is a great Condor and may take over from captain when Malone moves on. Alex P. is not the next Vinny Deharnais but a good 6/7D at the AHL level.
I would take Noah Ostlund at #29 if he was available, I’m guessing he’ll be long gone before #29
Does Luneau have hair on his ass ?
I believe he will in time.
There seems to be a consensus top 5 D-men in the 1st round and around 13 d-men who have ranged from 1st round – 3rd.
No Goalies in the first round?
The math doesn’t like them?
Math only likes the men under six feet.
It sometimes feels that way.
I did notice though that you have more Dmen in your first 32 picks than usual (including two RHD in the top 10 )….or maybe it just feels that way? Tweak the algorithm?
No, I just think there are many good defensemen this year, and yet few who have separated from each other. That makes it damn dangerous for teams.
Most Math teachers are 5’11” or under…..so…..
http://33.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzvx2be96N1r9xi2ko1_1280.jpg
Typo
Filip Mesar
If Hutson, or Howard fall!
If someone from 1 to 20 on LT’s list is available at 29 should we grab him?
I say YES!
But no takers so let’s try again…
If someone from 1 to 15 on LT’s list is available at 29 should we grab him?
You mean like Bourgault being available last year at 22?
(and being able to trade down, add a 3rd round pick, and still get the higher ranked player at 22 – tidy work apparently).
Yes. I think LT had Bourgault at 14.
So someone from the top 20 in LT’s list should be snapped up at 29 imo.
Someone in the top 15 of LT’s list at 29 should be a no brainer.
Yup, agreed.
I think it will be Jagger Firkus (I have him No. 12) and Jordan Dumais (No. 19).
I sincerely hope it’s specifically one of these guys; I would be happy for you.
Also, if you’re going to take a risk on an undersized player, the last 7 picks of Round One and the first 15 picks of Round 2 is where the chance of extreme value often comes into play imo
Either of those guys would have to be considered home runs at #29.
I would be surprised if the Oilers have there pick draft day. The time to win is clearly now and there’s to many needs to not use that pick as a way of filling one of them.
I think its more likely that its traded down for 2+ picks.
I mean, if its attached to Barrie to bring back Varlamov and Mayfield (give or take), OK but, trading it on its own it money it for no money out and that could be troublesome this off-season.
Essentially that was my point. Trading the the first round pick plus to get a needed piece for today. Although pics are important the window is open now and we can’t really wait 3 to 4 years for a player to develop when that asset could help win the Cup.
At age 24, it could be.
Yes. If he is 24 and his entire playing time totals 320 minutes, you know you don’t have a player. 😉
One of my favourite comments (I don’t remember the exact quote) from Glen Sather was that the only real skill you needed to be a successful General Manager in the NHL was the ability to spot talent sooner than anybody else – that you could hire people for every other aspect of the job.
I think Glen would say that 320 minutes was more than enough for him. No idea about Holland.
Make what kind of call?
In general, though, not with our stats or lack of health information. Not even close. JW or another coach could probably suss it out with 320 minutes of video, given broad enough usage of the player in question… and if they knew how healthy the player was, how adjusted he was if new to the team, how his personal life is going… all the factors that can confound performance.
Typically at 320 minutes, eyes had better be involved, IMO. Our stats fool us all the time at one year sample sizes. 16 games of first line time isn’t near enough data to say anything “for sure”.
A good test of this would be to give two advanced stats heads two different 320 min samples from one player.
For eg, Get two Puljujarvi samples. One pre-Xmas and post-All-star break and then have the two statsheads you give their opinion on the player based on their samples… style, strengths, weaknesses etc.
I’d bet they read plenty different.
The other thing is… what position are we talking about? F, D, G all might require different sample sizes to get the full picture of the player.
Relatedly, I’m approximately 100% sure (read: 95+%) that the only reasons Benson wouldn’t be re-signed by the Oilers are:
1) some team pays an asset for him, or
2) the player asks to become a UFA to seek a second opinion (which may or may not be granted).
Otherwise a $788k QO will be issued.
I don’t see any reason not to qualify him.
You had me at “resembles Ales Hemsky at the same age”
You lost me at “undersized”
Trade down.
Haha so you should just never draft an undersized player? I understand trading down and the need for overall size on the Oilers, but it seems short sighted to dismiss a player simply due to size.
He’s taller and already 20 lbs heavier than yamamoto…
We lost you a long time ago!😉
Jesper Bratt, 5’10, 175 pounds:
76 Games: 26 goals, 47 assists, 73 points
Exactly my point. A player 5’10” is newsworthy for having made it.
I see your Bratt and raise you a Yak and a Kaliyev.
http://33.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lzvx2be96N1r9xi2ko1_1280.jpg
From the top 50 points list in the 2022 playoffs:
Nikita Kucherov 5’11” 183
Cale Makar 5’11” 187
Adam Fox 5’11” 183
Johnny Gaudreau 5’9” 165
Brad Marchand 5’9” 182
Teuvo Teravainen 5’11” 191
Jake Guentzel 5’11” 180
Artturi Lehkonen 5’11” 179
Tony DeAngelo 5’11” 180
Vincent Trocheck 5’10” 183
Kirill Kaprizov 5’10” 202
Claude Giroux 5’11” 185
In the next 50 there is:
Seth Jarvis
Kailer Yamamoto
Andrew Mangiapane
Max Domi
Brandon Hagel
Brayden Point
Mesar is 5’10” 174. If he has the skill make the pick. He’s not too small for the NHL.
Thank you for making my point.
Only one guy on your list is under 170lbs and almost all of them are over 180lbs.
He’s listed at 5’10, 177 on elite prospects, at age 18.
He’s virtually certain to be over 180 once he’s 20 or 21, and probably tops out closer to 190 as a mature player.
I see your “you lost be at undersized” and raise you a Josh Green, Chad Kilger and Brad Isbister…..
Mitch Moroz anyone