This clip was from summer 1983, and obviously Kevin Lowe and the Oilers found a way to make the money work. He was the first draft pick in Oilers NHL history, scored the first goal, played for all five Stanley Cup winners. Later he coached the team for one season and then as general manager was the architect of the 2005-06 team that made it all the way to the SCF.
Lowe’s retirement from a prominent front office role was announced yesterday, and the reaction online ran the complete emotional palette, from sunrise to sunset. Player, community leader, winner, coach, general manager, administrator. He was passionate, pushed the envelope on and off the ice and was never afraid to risk it all if he had the courage of his convictions. Few men who have worn the Oil drop were as fascinating as Kevin Lowe.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ expectations of Jack Campbell in his first Edmonton season
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: 5 Edmonton Oilers training camp surprises
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid and his Art Ross dominance
- Lowetide: Can Oilers’ Darnell Nurse live up to new contract?
- DNB: With Oilers roster intact, stars readying for next step
- Lowetide: 10 unsigned free agents who could help the Oilers in 2022-23
- Lowetide: 5 times Oilers management mishandled Jesse Puljujarvi
- Lowetide: What are reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2022-23?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard is on the edge of stardom
- Lowetide: How many goals will Oilers winger Evander Kane score next season?
- Lowetide: Four Oilers defence prospects applying for one job. Who wins?
- DNB: Oilers depth chart: Where did they improve and where can they make more moves?
- DNB: Oilers’ Kane, Campbell signings are calculated risks in push for Stanley Cup
- Lowetide: For Oilers forward Dylan Holloway, the future may come early
- DNB: Oilers’ Brad Holland on AGM role, analytics, working with his dad: Q&A
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
- DNB: First-round pick Reid Schaefer can bring ‘big-boy hockey’ to his hometown team
- DNB: What we’re hearing on Edmonton Oilers’ Puljujarvi, more
- DNB: What if Edmonton Oilers trade Jesse Puljujarvi? The case for and against
TRACER: MAY 2014 CALL AND RESPONSE
This was originally published May 14, 2014.
- Finally! I guess we haven’t discussed Kevin Lowe in awhile.
- I’m looking forward to hearing you rip him to shreds. That won’t be happening, but I would direct you to the comments section.
- How can you possibly defend him? I believe there are things to criticize—and I have—but the general tone in the fanbase is wildly acidic and for me that’s just not what the reasonable expectations series is trying to accomplish.
- Oh right, take all the passion out of things and evaluate the player/manager. Yes.
- Will you at least admit he’s made errors? God yes. Corey Perry could have been an Oiler, that’s a big swing and a miss. I think Lowe spent several years in a “caretaker” role, making moves that were typical but not innovative. I don’t recall a major shift from the Sather era from 2000-04, except Slats could convince an opposition GM to take a big risk.
- He made some good trades. Sure, but they were the Sather template until Lowe turned the corner in 2005 summer. Roman Hamrlik for Eric Brewer and Brad Winchester, or Bill Guerin for Anson Carter and a flip of picks that got the team Ales Hemsky. That’s pretty much Sather-era trading, although lacking the creativity Slats displayed so often.
- Still, good. I thought so. Lowe arrived at the 2004 lockout with a roster full of value contracts. Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Torres, Bergeron, Pisani, they were all underpaid based on the cap of 2005. He slow-played his early years and arrived at the lockout with six quality players on value contracts.
- And then came 2005-06 and the highlight of his GM career. Yes. Acquiring Chris Pronger changed the story in a heartbeat. The Oilers, who had been a middling team, suddenly became a legitimate contender, not just for the playoffs, but beyond them.
- He made great decisions. Well, he acquired Peca and that was brilliant, but we knew in October 2005 that the goaltending was poor. Lowe waited until the deadline to trade for Roloson, and an earlier deal might have made things easier.
- Still, what a ride! Sure. I’d say the only real quibble during that season was dealing Marty Reasoner to Boston at the deadline. The Oilers ended up having very little at center once Pouliot developed mono. Ended up signing Rem the Gem.
- Was the highlight the trade deadline 2006? No, I’d say his highest high was the Pronger trade. You have to understand that Chris Pronger is the best defenseman to play for this team. Ever. He changed the equation.
- If that was the highlight, then trading Pronger was surely the lowest point. I don’t agree, but it wasn’t a shining moment in the sun. The return for Pronger—Joffrey Lupul, Ladislav Smid, Jordan Eberle, Travis Hamonic and Nick Ross—was substantial. The problem is you’re trading Pronger, who allowed Oilers nation to run at the front of the pack, breathing clean air and yelling things like ‘blow it our your ass’ because there was a reasonable expectation that the team could back it up. If Lowe was trading Pronger, he badly needed to either sign Jaroslav Spacek or trade Pronger for a legit veteran blue.
- So, it plunged the Oilers into the depths? Yes, and I believe, at some level, Kevin Lowe decided he had to make it right. Which led to countless decisions involving big dollars and free agents and offer sheets. I mean, if you go back and look at the transactions from 2007 summer through Steve Tambellini’s hiring, that is some major league tap dancing. Some of the moves were strong and focused, but also expensive.
- It was a train in vain, though. Yes, because when you trade Pronger for all youth, it’s a setback even if you made a good call on asset return. Now, Lupul didn’t play well here and Smid wasn’t ready, so the trade became even more stark.
- Was Steve Tambellini all bad as general manager? No. He restructured the minor league system, and it was dead at the time, and I will argue he presided over a golden era of amateur procurement, although we have yet to see the results of that era take root in the NHL.
- Golden era? Come on! Do me a favor, have a look through the Oilers past and list all of the five year procurement clusters that can boast Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz, Martin Marincin, Oscar Klefbom and the others. I’ll tell you so you don’t have to look. There’s one that’s better: 1979-1983. [Note: I was wrong, as wrong as wrong can be.]
- A lot of people think Lowe was running the show during the Tambellini era. I don’t agree, mostly because the era showed such a distinct lack of imagination. This was an era that looks like it was run by an accountant.
- Ultimately, Lowe is responsible because he hired Tambellini. Agreed. The idea that Kevin Lowe is somehow blameless because Tambellini sent Souray to Hershey is a non-starter.
- And you believe Lowe saved the day by hiring Craig MacTavish as GM? No, I think he improved the position. We’re still in the process of seeing if this thing gets fixed, and it’s an open question about how much time the current administration has to fix it.
- But you believe it’s going in a good direction. I believe that the procurement department has a better vision and someone who can execute the plan.
- What else is there? Tons of things. I like MacT as a trader and a judge of talent, but also remember he can get damn stubborn on a guy. That’s a negative.
- Are there signs of MacT getting stubborn now? Sure. Keeping all of the coaches would be an example, and I do think there are leaks again—something that did not happen in the Tambellini era. When you’ve got Jim Matheson telling the world that the Oilers like Leon Draisaitl, that’s information that, if true, puts the club in a position of weakness. That’s a thing. A really bad thing.
- Back to Lowe. Why do you stick up for him? Plenty of reasons. First, the noxious verbal about him is beyond the pale. There’s more than enough we can talk about being wrong without getting personal. I refuse to be any part of that behavior.
- Why? Because it’s wrong, mean-spirited and forgets the good deeds done.
- Like what? Like playing outstanding defense for a long time in orange and blue. Like being a big part of the community pretty much the day he arrived in our city.
- That’s the past. Sure. That’s all we have to go on
- Do you think the current management group, as is, will find the solution? I am less confident now than I was a year ago.
- Do you think he has direct input on trades and procurement? Yes.
- Do you think there is any urgency in Oilers management to turn the corner? Yes.
- Do you think they are finding the right answers? I’m not sure they are asking the right questions.
- If you were given truth serum, and asked if Kevin Lowe will be part of the organization when this team wins their next Stanley, what would be your answer? Yes.
- In what capacity? Non-hockey ops admin.
- Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Stanley Cup in the next five years? No.
- Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Stanley Cup in the next ten years? Unknown, doesn’t look promising.
- If you could spend one hour with anyone in the organization, who would it be with? Katz.
- Why? He’s going the wrong way.
My lasting memory of Kevin Lowe the player is his effectiveness against much bigger forwards. He was strong and smart, and could separate player from puck effectively. He paid the price, being the smaller man (he was 6.02, 200, so did have size) in many battles is going to have an impact over time. Lowe emerged as an emotional leader among the young set in the early 1980’s, and that fire never left him. It would hurt him early in his time as general manager, but by 2005 I believe he was situated well. The Pronger deal was a master stroke, but the impact of Pronger asking out made it difficult for him to reach for higher ground. I don’t think Steve Tambellini was the right hire, as the chores became more difficult once the value contracts were complete and the value replacements could not overcome the loss in value represented by Hemsky, Horcoff, Torres, Stoll, Pisani and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Lowe the player made the HHOF, Lowe the manager looks better with each passing year.
I’ve always been impressed with his commitment to Edmonton, a prairie city far from his hometown. It’s an isolated northern city with much to offer, but the locals are used to outsiders tolerating instead of embracing. Kevin Lowe embraced, and for that I believe this city has always held him in high regard. Having someone choose to stay, knowing who you are, your flaws, is a rare thing.
I think Kevin Lowe would have benefitted from working under a veteran GM for several years before getting the big job.
I wish that 2006 team won Game 7, and things would have worked out differently later that summer. It was not to be, but the record shows that Kevin Lowe, general manager, authored a brilliant spring in Edmonton one last time. In a way, the 2006 run was the bravest of them all.
Sail on, Quebec Rempart, we will never forget you.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day, TSN1260 10-2. We’ll chat with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal about Kevin Lowe and the delay on Kailer Yamamoto’s contract. The EPL gets rolling this week, Vin Scully passed and there’s plenty of football to discuss. Jays play at 10, so we’ll give updates and be distracted, leading to much hilarity! 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
NEW for The Athletic: Jay Woodcroft is the right man at the right time in Edmonton
https://theathletic.com/3476576/2022/08/05/lowetide-woodcroft-coach-edmonton-oilers-nhl/
If someone got hurt in TC, who had more than an league min salary, could the oilers LTIR them and then be cap complaint?
Pretty much someone gets hurt in TC every year, maybe they are just kicking the cap problem down the road knowing it’s close enough it likely works on opening night.
If McLeod signs for $950,000 they can open the season with a 20 man roster and be cap compliant with about 235,667 to spare.
Seven of those 20 players would be making $1.25M or less.
It’s no way to run a railroad.
and if Nuge tweaks his wrist and is out for 4 games, they don’t have enough cap space to call someone up an ice a full lineup – they’d have to play with 17 skaters……
Don’t get your knickers in a knot Holland’s going to trade one of the fab 3 wingers for cap space.
Well, yes, technically that would help get cap compliant to start the season but, at the same time, it reduces the number of players on the roster. If its a player long the lines of Janmark or Ryan, etc. it reduces the players on the roster and probably not enough room to replace them with a Benson.
If its Hyman or Nuge, well, that’s a very poor option to hope for, right?
Of note, with the last arb case settling, the Oilers will have a 48 hour buyout window the opens on Saturday.
No buyouts are plausible though, are they?
Nothing painless.
I don’t mean that.
I just re-looked at the roster because of OPs ‘of note’. I don’t see anyone that could plausibly make sense to buy out. Not even close.
Sorry, that is what I was trying to say. The cure would be worse than the disease.
I was just posting it for information.
No, I wouldn’t think so but it seems that cap is really really tough to move right now so you never know. I don’t imagine they buy out Foegele but its not completely out of the realm of possibilities.
Yes, fair enough.
Though even if Foegele were allowed to be bought out (he is not), it’s extremely tough to imagine it being done, if only because that move alone wouldn’t be enough to solve the teams cap problems.
They’d be paying a perfectly useful player to go away, and would STILL need to make a 2nd move on top of it. It just wouldn’t make sense.
https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-faq
Requirements:
1- A buyout can only be performed on a player who was on the clubs reserve list at 3:00pm on the most recent trade deadline
2- The player must have a cap hit of at least $4,000,000 for the 2022 offseason
per Capfriendly, it looks like Barrie is the last man standing, and that’s crazy talk
the above is copy/paste from the section on arbitration cases and the 2nd buyout window
We could buyout Nuge, I hear he’s overpaid
..and he’s never even reached 50 points!!
Right, I forgot about the $4MM cap hit – Foegele is not an option.
Crazy talk, no one in this community in their right mind suggested anyone as a buyout possibility ever, lol.
Ah cool, I didn’t realize there were specific rules around the buyouts during this window. Good to know for next time.
With Lowe retiring today it feels as though an era has ended. The memory of the Boys on the Bus receding just a little bit further into the shadows. A time for a touch of nostalgia for those of us who were privileged to witness first hand one of the greatest assemblings of hockey talent a single team has ever amassed.
The timing seems prescient. The team is finally on the rise, no longer burdened by constant reference to a past so storied it weighed the present down. One by one the heroes of the eighties have gone off to other ventures resurfacing only now and then to mark some honour conferred.
Holland seems likely to take on Lowe’s duties and titles as he prepares for his own withdrawal from the front lines having accomplished most of what he was brought in to do.
I turned 70 the other day. A mark on the calendar that lends itself to looking back more than forward and the passing of the torch by Lowe to this next generation of talent has only just added to that sentiment.
He was a warrior on the ice and that is the memory I will hold closest because as hard as the down times were the years of glory are by far the dearest and rarest events in life and need to be savoured if luck or chance bestows the opportunity to witness them upon you.
Everything else that can be said is best left for another day.
Well written, well remembered, and well put. These are my feelings exactly.
LTs arguments with himself are what keep me through the summer lull 😉
Holland on with Reid now.
Asked about Jesse and if he’s going to be on the team or if he’s looking to move him.
Holland went off on a tangent as he tends to be talked about needing to get the depth guys signed after arb season is over but they are pretty much capped out and what we have is pretty much what we’ll be going to camp with. Thinks Jesse and the org are both looking for him to “bounce back” and perform over 82 games like he did early in the year.
No real acceptance or acknowledgement that there has to be a material cap out….
Ugh, I had been posting generally that Yamo had 4 RFA years – the other day, I was “corrected” on Oilers Nation that he only had 3 and I’ve been going with that.
Puckpedia advising 4 RFA years, so still would have two left to go on expiry.
I thought it was 4. Thanks for re-confirming.
I think he might have 4 seasons left. For a player in Yamamoto’s circumstance to become a UFA, he has to have 7 accrued seasons or be 27 on June 30. Since his birthday isn’t until September, he will still be 26 on June 30, so I think he might still have an extra season to go to get to UFA based on age and accrued seasons. He either has 2 or 3 seasons accrued so far, depending on how the league dealt with the 19/20 season getting truncated. He would have likely reached the 40 game threshold if the Oilers last 11 games hadn’t been cancelled. Either way, a 3 year deal would only get him to 6 accrued seasons.
As expected Yammers comes in around 3 per.
Now how we get cap compliant?
Trade Foegele
Just barely if we trade Foegele.
I have McLeod coming in at $950,000 and a PTO replacing Shore at $750,000 with Kessel signing for $1.25M in my offseason spreadsheet. That puts us right up against it at $82,339,333.
Too tight for my taste so something else has to happen and I suspect it is Jesse.
PTO could just be Benson – when he signs, it will be for league min I would think.
And I believe that’s with a 22 vs. 23 man roster, correct?
Correct. It only works in theory so there is a trade coming that involves a higher cap hit than Foegele’s imo. Even moving just Puljujarvi makes things way tighter than prudent imo.
Yeah, tough to make it work with just $2.75-3.0M going out, unfortunately.
Agree it’s very likely a higher cap hit, or more than one cap hit, is heading out.
2 X $3.1MM for Yamo – as per Rishaug.
FANTASTIC deal as the 2-year term is the most team friendly (3 would have walked him to UFA).
I had posited a 2-year term would be more expensive cap hit wise than 1 or 3.
I presume its back-loaded for a higher QO on RFA expiry but that’s fine – what a great deal given the term!
3.2 mil the second year
$3MM and $3.2MM?????
Even better.
Perfect term and great structure – my goodness Ken Holland is having a nice off-season.
Now just to “do the right thing” as far as moving the cap out….
LT beat you to it
Yamamoto two years, $3.1 million AAV as per Ryan Rishaug.
Cap Friendly confirms.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers
They confirmed that you were blowing hot air based on all your posts about how much Yamamoto was going to get paid. Now that he is signed, how long will we have to wait for you to completely flip flop and point out all the other better deals other teams got in signing their RFA’s?
I thought he would come in at about $3.5 million from an arbitration decision.
This is certainly in the ballpark considering arbitration was avoided.
Did you now? Yesterday you forgot that Lou is no longer the GM of Devils. Today you forget you posted this on July 17:
“I would think an arbitrator would look at this (sic) numbers and come up with something in the $5 million range.”
I am probably being kind by saying you “forgot”.
He also believed that:
A) Puljujarvi would not come close to signing below $3 million
B) The Arbitrator would give him a lot more than $4 million
C) No other team would want Puljujarvi, even at $3 million
You’ll notice in my first post, I never said he believed that Kailer would get paid way more, just that he posted it. He never did believe it, and probably did believe that kailer could get as much as $3.5 from the arbitrator and that $3.1 is a fair contract. But saying what he actually believes is rarely the motivation for most of his posts.
Also known as convenient memory……
The Church Lady Convention is hilarious.
Probably not long at all. 😉
Remember when Connor first hit the NHL. His speed was something even veteran NHLers had never seen before. As soon as he got the puck, looked up the ice and started to go from third right up to top gear in seconds.
Defensemen like Chara and Byfuglien would turn at the blue line and skate forward towards their own net to pick up speed before turning back around to face the attacking McDavid. They were so concerned about getting walked they reverted back to pee-wee. Too funny and too awesome.
For McDavid it didn’t matter if it was one on five, he was going for it.
Thank you for this.
I was watching Oilers 2022 Flames series goals highlights and am convinced this team is knocking on the door of greatness.
The supporting cast is finally tup to scratch but in the end it’s all McDavid. Dude is incredible and beyond description in genius.
Have shown and seen others recting to watching McDavid playing and everyone with eyes in their head can instantly see how great he is.
He’s certainly in Gretzky territory. Wow!
So much nicer watching the emergence of McLeod now because ……..he doesn’t have to be a #1 or #2 center. We just want him to take a #3C spot on the roster and do well in that role.
Same with Bouchard, the pressure is off (somewhat) of him having to be top pair. He has a team around him now and can reach whatever ceiling he’s meant to reach.
Everything is better now that the top talent is on the roster. And McDavid, well hes slowed down a bit which he must in order to achieve some longevity in the league. Too many things break going at that speed with reckless abandon.
With a better supporting cast I hope he can coast a little through the regular season. He won’t, but he could.
McDavid fatigue, we just seen it in action, its a thing. So was Gretzky. He was never “the Great One” until after he’d moved on. Cheers.
—- hmm: I’ve got a nice post “waiting for approval “. Haven’t logged on in a few weeks maybe this is the new format?
Did it include the owner’s first name? LT mentioned something about that triggering a flag the other day.
….maybe he was writing about Daril’s other brother, Daril…:)
— Katz, Lowe, decade of darkness, biggest legacy was McD: very grateful for that stewardship: that stuff
— should have been mentored, no bidness being GM well paid for his troubles, hibris and conflating role on great team that without that roster he doesn’t win cups to rile of GM amd belief it was manifest destiny because they were so great dynasty it ought to just rub off, etc…Bled Oil, a legend, too bad he wasn’t qualified but that always get exposed over time. Blah blah. Vent vent!!
The athletic is giving Nuge’s contract a D+. That’s pretty funny
How is that possible.
He scored 11 Goals last year easily could of scored 25 if he just hit the net. They asked Mike Bossy what the key to scoring was, his answer was hit the net.
RNH lead all regular forwards on the team in terms of registering a shot on goal (it goes in or the goalie registers a save) when he made a shot attempt (iCF) at 67%. If it wasn’t blocked by a defenseman (iFF), he registered a shot on goal 84% of the time, also the best on the team. Clearly he can hit the net. His problem was when he hit the net, only 7% went in, the second lowest shooting % of his career, and well below his career average of 11.5%.
I’ll bet half the goals were when he went top shelf. Nobody shoots more low blocker than Nuge. I’m sure they expect it
Scorers go top cheddar because so many goalies do the butterfly/hybrid drop to the knees. It’s also way harder to save if it’s on target and has some velocity
He scored 11 goals but also had 50 points in 63 games (and 14 points in 16 playoff games) – a much better PPG than, say, Zack Hyman while also being a plus player (Hyman a minus) and a high end PK guy (Hyman as well) – much of that on the 3rd line (not all).
Nuge has scored 25 or more once in an 11 year NHL career. Once. Scoring is not a strong point, so no.
Nuge does a excellent job of the back pass to Barrie on the PP who waste’s no time passing over to McDavid to open things up. The opposition cheats on McDavid’s side which leaves Nuge with a clear high danger shot. He needs to start burying the puck in the net. I believe Nuge is one of those players that peak in his late 20’s early 30’s. Nuge will get between 25-30 Goals this year or next year.
Sure, goal scoring isn’t his strongest point.
Though does have:
1 x 28 goal season
2 x 24 goal seasons
A Covid shortened 22 goal season that pro-rates to 25+
A Covid shortened 16 goal season that pro-rates to 25 goals.
Supposedly he’s only worth 3.1 mil a year.
Nobody is watching one of the most fun teams in the game, it appears.
Yep.
There will be 2 reactions to this – one from Oilers fandom and the other will be outside
Oiler fandom.
How close you are to the PR machine matters.
I love Nuge the person and appreciate the nuanced effort of Nuge the player, but he is making the same money as Kane next season and about the same as Hyman. Let that sink in. Nuge is realistically a 3C on a playoff bound team with the caveat that he is pretty useless on the FO. Not out of place as a 2LW but nothing to get excited about either. $4M would be about right. Maybe $4.5M if your team needs a PP witch, which most playoff teams will already have covered. So I think you have a hard time moving that current contract. I wouldn’t give it a D+ but a C to C- is probably fair.
And it will look worse with age and an accumulating injury history.
Isn’t that backwards? If he’s healthy enough his contract gains cap value as the cap goes up. Thus the contract (which when signed was not out of line for an established two way C)
Is he an established two way C on a championship team in his 30’s?
Chances are this contract will look terrible in a few years which is why the model hates his contract.
The same applies to Hyman.
That the cap rises doesn’t change that as it floats all boats.
I think his peak years are the next 3-4 years he’s finally filling out where he doesn’t get ID in the States.
Hard time moving the Nuge contract? This is insanity.
We live in crazy times.
Nuge is a plug and play consummate professional. He plays all disciplines. He is more of a set up man than a finisher. He plays both left wing and centre. Given the current team he can moved up to top six and or play third line centre. He does not cheat for offence and an excellent mentor for younger players. His pay is by todays stands commensurate with his peers!
Sounds like a $4M to $4.5M max player to me. Plays like one too.
The players making that may score more but they don’t play all disciplines and they weren’t for UFA years. Stop and think for an example how the power play went on a funk when Nuge was out for awhile. He is also a capable second line centre when the coaches load up with Draisaitl and McDavid playing together when down a goal. Also look to the fact he is almost always a plus player.
The first unit scored at a rate of 12.03/60 when Nuge was on the ice. With Connor and Leon, but without Nuge, the efficiency dropped to 8.13 g/60. He is an important part of that Unit.
11.03, dropping to 8.29 if we look at just 5 on 4 (as opposed to PP overall).
11.67, dropping to 8.09 the prior season.
The numbers paint a real picture.
In the last 3 season, Nuge ranks 72nd in the league among forwards in points per game (that’s top quartile). This past season, he was 85th in points per game (40 games +) (again still top quartile). He is 40th among forwards in the NHL in time on ice per game. There are 122 forwards in the NHL making more than him, 55 who have less points per game.
And many of them don’t kill penalties and few at the level that RNH does. Over the past 3 seasons, of any pker to play a total of more than 100 minutes on the PK, he is 23rd in GA/60 out of 220 forwards. This season, he was 16th overall out of 142 forwards who played at least 50 minutes, which is less than 1:00 per game (he played 127 minutes). Overall he was on the ice for 10 power play goals against, but 6 shorthanded goals for (for which he recorded 5 points. He has become an elite penalty killer.
RNH is the 3rd best center on the Oilers in large part because they have the best center in the league and no worse than the 4th or 5th best center in the league playing in front of him. He adapted his playing style accordingly. He would be the first line center on some other teams in the league and second on most. In Free Agency, he would get paid more than his current contract easily.
There is no decent team that would feature Nuge as 1C. None.
First, I said some teams for 1st line center, without any qualifier. That gets him minimum $5 million right there.
Second, I think if Bergeron doesn’t come back, he’d have a shot at first line center on Boston and he also would have a real shot at first line center on Minnesota. He’s better than Ek. There’s 2 playoff teams right there that he could be first line center for. He’d give Lindholm a run for his money in Calgary too.
Not a chance the Wild would trade EK for RNH.
Ek’s contract expires when he is 31 while Nuge will be 35.
Whoa, Lindholm had 25 goals and 47 point….. at 5 on 5 last season and is a high-end 2-way center (that received deserved selke votes).
I acknowledge who he played with but he was a big part of the best line in hockey last season.
Thank you. Nice post.
I’m not a big Nuge fan and think he’s very overrated by the fan base but a 3.1 mil a year for a 60 point player seems pretty ridiculous
also the idea that he would be hard to move is also pretty ridiculous
Also centers get paid significantly more than wingers and while he’s been playing more wing he’s a capable center. Comparing him to wingers in this market is kind of silly even if you choose to play him as a winger
There is no center premium for a goal scoring challenged 3C with a 44.2 career FO%.
This.
And a 3rd line of Foegele-RNH-Puljujaarvi totals $10.875 million.
Is there a more expensive 3rd line in the league?
Not for long. One or two will have new addresses.
Good Lord.
Common Flames 3rd/4th lines last year were:
Lucic-Monahan-Dube ($13.926M)
and
Lucic-Monahan-Lewis ($12.485M)
Tough to tell if those lines were 3rd or 4th lines, but all 4 Flames played less 5v5 TOI per game than all 3 Oilers you list.
You can see why as well since those 2 Flames lines also got outscored 4GF-13GA (24%GF) in their minutes together.
Carter, Kapanen and Zucker, the Pens 3rd line, comes in at $11.7 million too.
Carter-Kapanen-McGinn is $9.2 million
Monahan is an outlier due to injury,\.
Swing and a miss.
Zucker’s most frequent linemates in the regular season were Carter and Kapenen. When Malkin came back, they did try Zucker with him for a few games, but in the playoffs, Zucker played mostly with Carter and McGinn. He got almost no time with Malkin or Crosby. Zucker and his $5.5 million are mostly on the 3rd line, and likely will be again. He was 10th among their forwards on EVTOI in the playoffs.
Now maybe they solve that problem by buying Zucker out. .That would still have them with a $9.2 million 3rd line, but they would add $2 million to their dead cap pool.
Pro tip:
Look forward not backward.
As if you have a fucking clue who Pittsburgh/Calgary or any other team will be playing on their 3rd line going forward.
— as I was reading this at the exact time I scrolled down the “I wish he had the chance to work under a GM”. Couldn’t agree more.
— In many family run businesses favored children rise too high. Lowe was one of those guys. He had no business being the GM: conflating being a necessary but not close to sufficient piece of the glory years to being a successful GM was always my bone of contention. Not to mention the absolute hubris that came with the inflated manifest destiny ethos derived from thinking Cup wins meant the organization was always forever deserving of more Cups because of his role as a player that would somehow just rub off as GM.
— I get the Katz fan boy management style and it’s a shame. Maybe Lowe portends a Nicholson departure and Katz makes more managerial moves : he built Rexall and had to have employed best in breed management to compete and grow.
— Having never lived in Edmonton I’m not as attuned or sensitive to the whole “he loves us even though we are small” thing but it’s real. For many millions a year a seat at the big boys table and access to Billionaire peer toys pretty nice gig.
— He’s a beloved Oiler who bleed Oil for many years. Had he gone the GM route like Joe Sakic who toiled away for a few years learning the ropes or was a coach for a number of years or was a Steve Y apprenticeship type thing it might have been different.
— gawd I loathed that Old Boys network: in business you can’t rest on your laurels you get exposed eventually as Lowe was and the entire decade of darkness. His greatest achievement was bringing in McD : for that ineptness I will always be grateful.
If I sign up, can I introduce you to a friend?
I’d like to “meet” you both….”simultaneously”
Split the difference $93.50 / hour.
So all in $187/hr
Should end up costing about $187 / 6 = $31
Don’t particularly care if it’s non-public or not.
Too bad all of our defenders can’t be Kevin Lowe. There were some bad times to go with the good, but rehashing the bad times today is about as tasteful and constructive as rehashing old fights with your partner on your wedding anniversary.
He was a fantastic player.
To be perfectly honest it took forever before I knew the difference between him and Steve Smith.
They both have the exact Celtic oriental look that’s made famous from Ireland/Scotland.
The actor John Wayne of all people had that same squinty eyed look.
explain more.
Certain Celtic people particularly from the north part of the world where I’m from have a resemblance to other peoples from across the world who come from the similar northern part of the world.
In my case its Brit DNA. North of the UK and you get to Scandinavia particularly Finland where the phenomena is even more pronounced.
Folded eye lid I believe it’s called (upper lid). It’s a cold weather adaptation I’ve read
You didn’t mention the Penner offer sheet, the following Burke entertainment or the Ryan Smyth trade. 2 defining moments during Lowe’s GMing.
Good times
I still wish the Lowe/Burke Rumble After The Bungle had happened.
It’s never too late.
His press conference was sublime; cementing the apartheid between have and have not Oiler fans for all time.
Yes. This was not meant to be an all inclusive review, but rather a conversation. One of the things that led me to mention the Perry item is that it was universally unpopular, whereas the Penner offer sheet and Smyth trade delivered more of a split fan base.
You should mention he didn’t trade for Perry out of spite for Comrie.
I think the reader knows the story.
I read the word nepotism in the comments and wanted to note that, while I have no idea about Paul Messier’s credentials when he was hired and no real knowledge of how he performed in the org, he is no longer with the org and Brad Holland’s first hire will be a new pro scout to replace him – per Nugent-Bowman (and others).
Brad, son of Ken his boss.
Yes, of course, Brad Holland has credentials, working his way through various levels of hockey in varying roles prior to being hired with the Oilers and then performing very well with the Oilers and earning his recent promotion.
Same could be said of Keith Gretzky.
These two men earned their hires within the org and their promotions thereafter. I don’t care about their last names.
Paul Messier I know nothing about except his relation to Mark and, if anything, pro scouting has been one of the issues with the org in recent years.
I’m happy that Brad Holland seems to potentially have more of an analytical bent than his father. He may have also worked his way through various levels of hockey and performed well. As with most cases of nepotism, none of that is the point. Introductions and social connections often gets people linked to those in power, like relatives, with an opportunity to get their foot in the door.
It’s not a problem unique to hockey management. Most professional settings have an incestuous nature where social connections and especially family connections often get people a crucial introduction or a benefit of the doubt that the outside applicant doesn’t get the benefit of.
In the long run, this is to the detriment of the larger organization as they are deprived of novel perspectives and unique takes by those individuals who are not hired because they don’t have links to those in power and don’t get that crucial introduction or the benefit of the doubt.
This post presumes that every “relation” is hired due to nepotism.
Both Ken Holland and Keith Gretzky has credential earning their hire in the Oiler organization and have performed admirably in their roles earning promotions on merit.
I don’t care if their last name’s got them an introduction 20 years ago, they were hired in to the Oilers’ org on merit (it seems) and promoted on merit (it seems) – the initial hires and promotions should have been made no matter the last name and reasonably likely were – given their credentials.
If you’re talking about my post, then no, I don’t presume that every “relation” is hired due to nepotism. That’s something you’ve ascribed to it which I do not say.
I guess you and I differ with respect to your final paragraph. I do care if their last names got them an introduction 20 years ago. The fact that there are two “seems” and a “reasonably likely” in your final paragraph is the problem. Ideally, there should be no appearance of nepotism in addition to a lack of actual nepotism.
As I stated in my initial post, it is not a problem that is specific to hockey management. It’s the idea that the initial foot in the door doesn’t matter that assures that the same circle of the “old boys club” in various industries continue to be dominated by a lack of diversity in thought, among the members of said club.
I took the following to mean that, essentially, all hires or a person with a name receive this advantage:
“Introductions and social connections often gets people linked to those in power, like relatives, with an opportunity to get their foot in the door.”
Yes, I used “reasonably likely” and “seems” because I don’t have the information/ability/knowledge to prove or disprove anything as it relates to the hires and promotions but I can base an opinion on objective data of hiring and promotion based on merit.
You talk about the “appearance of nepotism” but there is zero ability to actually discount that with any person that “has a name. That appearance is much less so given varied and successful development paths taken by each prior to being hired in the Oilers org and promotions within that can be substantiated fully on performance and merit.
I think I see your mistake. This sentence of mine;
“Introductions and social connections often gets people linked to those in power, like relatives, with an opportunity to get their foot in the door.”
does mean that (as you state in your second post) that “all person(s) with a name receive (an) advantage” but it does not follow that (as you state in your first post) that “every “relation” is hired due to nepotism”
To clarify, by way of an example, maybe 7 of the 10 people with a name/connection are ultimately hired. All 10 of of the people with a name/connection received an advantage but only 7 of them were hired, as a result of that name/connection.
With respect to your use of the qualifiers “reasonably likely” and “seems”, I agree that neither you or I have the information to prove whether someone like Holland was hired due to nepotism or not. The problem is that your opinion is based on one point of “objective data” as you phrase it, that being whether the individual was hired or not. Hence my use of the phrase “appearance of nepotism”.
With respect to your final paragraph, you again misunderstand my point. I don’t care about each individuals “varied and successful development paths”. As I stated in my post, Brad Holland may be (and I suspect, is) qualified but he likely got his foot in the door due to the fact that his daddy is Ken Holland.
If you don’t think social/family connections often lead to unfair advantages for some individuals during the hiring process, I think you are being purposely obtuse.
Lowe was on with Gregor yesterday, it was a nice listen – it seems he really really didn’t like the GM role (nor the POHO role) – hated dealing with agents, etc.
Good for him.
He sure stayed around long enough doing a job he didn’t like (or was good at)
Probably wanted to kick some punk agent butt
To be a high level athlete in a full contact sport, especially with a physical style, requires a certain mindset
As we’ve heard many times some folk don’t always separate the arena from regular life so easily
Had occasion to meet Kevin Lowe at a few events over the years and he was nothing less than a total gentleman.
A tough heady player in his day and one of the most competitive men in the NHL on and off the ice. Yes, his time in management was a mixed bag but nobody loved the team more or gave more of themselves to it. Giving Hall his #4 was so classy.
6 rings baby. No one can ever take that away from him.
Congrats to Kevin Lowe for achieving mass freedom now that he’s his own non-public boss.
Tarkus, this is a very funny line.
Sides line yesterday about the flames signing Oliver allowed Lou to sign Kadri was also v good, but this…
I’m sentimental Irish enough to agree.
Congrats, Kevin Lowe. You have left big footprints in the sand ( or is it the ice?) and now get a well deserved retirement. I can heartily confirm retirement is the best job I never had….
Enjoy, you earned it. Ups and downs and everything between, you earned it.
Wrong by a single year……
Ooops, I now see that Randle beat me to the exact same thought….
no worries….you’re usually two steps ahead of me 🙂
He can come to the unveiling of the MacT drafting McDavid statue.
I have long opined that the return on the Pronger trade was huge:
1) A 21 year old winger with pedigree coming off a near 30 goal season;
2) A recently drafted top 10 pick d-man;
3) A first round pick;
4) Another first round pick; and
5) A second round pick.
I love me some Ladi Smid but the first two listed assets busted as far as what was expected but that doesn’t really change the fact that they were high end assets on the date of the trade and those 5 pieces was indeed substantial.
That opinion is almost universally met with criticism but I’m glad to see LT in on board.
I totally agree, especially considering it was public knowledge that Edmonton had to trade him. Too bad for Smid he went to an org that, at the time, didn’t seem to know squat about developing defenders. Usually you would expect a D-man to learn about the backdoor play BEFORE he becomes an NHL regular. Dubnyk must still have recurring nightmares about playing for the Oilers again.
And so we now enter “after sunset”.
Maybe like many of my “vintage”, I.e old enough to remember the glory years but not old enough to have understood them, Kevin Lowe remains a pretty divisive figure.
You have to acknowledge the contribution as a player: first goal, 5 cups, etc. When you watch BOTB it’s clear Lowe was the Dryden of that team. (Also a Quebec Anglo) He appears to reflect broadly on the sport, their place in history, about the game itself. I would like to go back and see how he’s portrayed in The Game of Our Lives too. Maybe he wasn’t swashbuckling enough for Gzowski to garner as much of that author’s attention in 1981. In any event, as a player, as compared with the rest of the BOTB, he seemed suited to inherit the reins of the franchise as a thoughtful manager, a cerebral tier above Gretzky and the like.
But of course this turned into a case study on the perils of nepotism and myopic thinking. Fantastic push to prep for 06, (a bit of “right time right place” after the lockout reshuffled the deck) but the thoughtful player appeared quickly thereafter more as an entitled boomer brat. Mr 6 Rings appeared constantly defensive and if there was ever any question, represented something of a generation pattern: dudes keeping more progressive people from positions of influence even after let down begat let down. I sort of grafted the upward failure I was seeing in my own field onto the Oilers under Lowe, and haven’t felt much sympathy toward the man since. Maybe fair, maybe not. When he stepped back from the hockey operations side, I thought it was a chicken shit move, the kind of cowardly play most people so infrequently have access to.
Probably not fair. But let’s not forget that we spent a decade wondering how on earth he was able to stomach his pride and keep his job. He was the figurehead of the worst of the worst in this franchise’s history.
So to me he retires as a deeply flawed manager, a vital community face, and a player that was on the ice for some of the most memorable games in the sport’s history.
The perfect Oiler.
1 – top player in an NHL dynasty like Dryden – check
2 – likeable, yet somewhat of a pompous jackass like Dryden – check
3 – overly entitled pompous in retirement like Dryden – check
Alcohol was the key in Lowe’s being able to keep his job for that decade mentioned. Lowe appears like several of my Irish relatives at a wedding, or at a pub, or sitting in front of the TV. Cranky as they say.
Lowe was like showing certain other Edmonton entertainment backwater characteristics. Like talking to the fans as if they’re a county fair in the 19th century with farmers staring open mouthed at the dance of the seven veils dancers.
Now that Oilers have a genuine contender for the Stanley Cup ready to start training camp, Lowe leaves the team in excellent shape. In a 32 team league you need to have the McKinnons, and the Draisaitls, otherwise you end up like the Calgary Flames or Toronto Maple Leafs lmao
Funny as Lowe was kept firmly out of any spotlight after he made an ass of himself during THAT presser.
How many years ago was that?
In 2009 he did a number on Bryan Burke in a radio interview that showed a bad lack of judgement. He named Bobby Ryan as a questionable prospect, which was fairly classless. Soon after he was taken out of the spotlight.
Wow. I had forgotten about that….
Lots of good people lack the tact necessary to be public mouthpieces. Especially in an environment as sensitive to any kind of opinion or personality as the NHL.
Randle’s Tip O’ The Day
If you’re looking at a recent photo of yourself and are being self critical about one aspect of it or another… DON’T!!!
Trust me, you’re going to look at the same photo 5 years from now and wish to god you could look like that again.
ha ha ha
Seeing as we’re taking a trip down memory lane.
https://thefourteenthfloor.com/2014/12/21/for-lowetide/
An extraordinary column that I had not read before today.
Fantastic read!!
Great article. Thanks for posting this, Randle!
Fancy a doctoral student in Toronto penning this…
You think it was sheps?
Excellent. Thank you
Who’s the Avs fan?
Love the Account Executive corporate hair! 😉
When I left the profession, I grew my hair out, then I shaved it off and have never worn a tie again.
#Freedom
— so great: thanks for posting this. The article captures a lot of the angst as well as the respite and role LT plays for the Oil community
Once an Oiler always an Oilers.
If I had to pick one guy on earth who I thought really meant that, it would be Vish.
I don’t think it was mentioned yet, but all-time games played for the Oil Drop:
1. Kevin Lowe* 1037
2. Ryan Smyth 971
3. Mark Messier* 851
4. Glenn Anderson* 845
5. Shawn Horcoff 796
6. Kelly Buchberger 795
7. Jari Kurri* 754
8. Golden Nugge 719
9. Craig MacTavish 701
10. Wayne Gretzky* 696
So, he’s still the longest serving Oiler, but I think that Nuge will pass him by the end of the contract. Nevertheless, Lowe will still hold the record for Total Goals – On Ice Against.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/leaders_career.html
Fun read…as an aside, Mikko is #6 for wins by an Oilers goaltender.
How many cups if all of those guys were 1000+ ?
10
; p
They would of won 8-9 also instead of a fire sale they could of parlayed all the greats and many other good players Huddy Simpson etc into another 2-3 cups . Not much talk ever on how we had to let damn fine players walk because of money. We could still be feeding off the Fuhr messier Anderson Kurri Mogg Ranford Gretzky’s Hockey Tree.
Pocklington ran out of other people’s money. Riverboat gamblers win big and lose big.
This is a little bit random, but OP poo pooed Janmark’s scoring numbers a bit yesterday.
I just wanted to run his per 82 game scoring rates by year:
15-16 82 17-16-33
17-18 82 19-15-34
18-19 82 6-19-25
19-20 82 8-20-28
20-21 82 17-19-36
21-22 82 11-20-31
——————
Career 82 13-18-31
Pretty consistent, and essentially classic scoring rates for a 3rd line player. I suspect he’ll be needed there given that at least one of Foegele or Puljujarvi will most likely be traded.
Also, I just noticed he didn’t play at all in 16-17. Was he injured? Anyone know?
Incredibly durable.
Would also note that in terms of ppg in the playoffs (career), Janmark 0.39 blows the doors of off Archibald 0.08, handily beats Devon Shore 0.25 and doubles the output of Derek Ryan 0.20
I misread some of his numbers from earlier in his career (where he was over 25 points) and I apologize for the error in yesterday’s postings and thank JP and RB for the corrections.
At the same time, I still think that the Oilers are more of a “true cup contender” if Janmark is the healthy lineup 4LW and not 3LW – maybe its asking for too much but a 4th line that “can play” and positively impact the games is a goal of mine (along with a third line that is among the league’s best – which we should have with the likes of Nuge on it).
As far as “incredibly durable”, well his missed 15 games last season and 10 in the 2019/20 season….
I think we all agree bottom 6.
Said when the trade was made, it will be interesting to see if Janmark is an Archibald replacement or a Foegele replacement
I would be very happy starting the season with Janmark and Holloway being inter-operable in the bottom 6.
Holloway Nuge JP
Janmark McLeod Ryan
But dream of the day we win Stanley with a 3rd line the calibre of
Hyman Nuge JP < this might only be a pipe dream
But it’s a pipe I’d take a hit off of an then pass along
E Kane McDavid Yamamoto
Holloway Draisaitl P Kane
Hyman Nuge JP
#HolySmoke
Lowe was a pretty decent Coach. Would have been better if he’d gotten to stay there. Moving him to GM immediately after Sather left was an organizational mistake. The EIG not only cost the team Sather, but then didn’t do a proper search once he’d moved on. Really too bad. Some wasted years in there.
How quickly we forget the shabby treatment he afforded to Ryan Smyth, Mike Comrie and Sheldon Souray.
The way management and the coaching staff handled the Comrie situation was the beginning of the second decline. The team went from an underfunded challenger where everyone “loved the room” to toxic.
That’s nothing compared to how Vegas has been treating their players.
Well then…that makes it all okay.
No, it doesn’t. But your one sided narrative about anything negative towards the Oilers grows weary.
How does it feel?
Did Stan Weir’s moustache steal your old flame or what man?!? What is it with your unending, piss poor aimed shots at the Oilers of now and then?
”We”? You don’t seem to forget anything negative about the Oilers….. The franchise has had its missteps, as they all do.
How come all the talented players are running away from Calgary?
Nobody’s forgetting nothing including his heated remarks about the teir 1 fans. Give the man his due you know he deserves it.
Today, most of us are magnanimously willing to focus on the good times.
That late 90s Oilers manager post was in a no win situation.
The ~40 owners bought the team for ~80M( on average 2M stake per owner) to stop relocation in an era the best player Dough Weight got paid 4.5M for has last contract (and about to get paid 8M in a sign&trade). They didn’t had the 3.5M to pay Weight (which was what they paid Hamilrk and Guerin those days) because the team was losing money.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/cal-nichols-named-to-the-order-of-canada/c-788610
Given the circumstances, I don’t really believe a “proper” GM would have done better.
Disagree. If the approach had been “Hey Glen, do your thing!” Instead of trying to micro-manage, the playoff revenue has them in the black.
The ownership group also were not the sisters of the poor and knew that changes to the system were on the horizon. This was not a charity.
Glen was paying 42 million hangers on salaries not doing much of anything at the end and didn’t want to fire them. He didn’t like taking orders from the 42 community owners who put their money on the line to save the Oilers in Edmonton. Glen wouldn’t acknowledge that he had to change to stay. #TheheadscoutwasbasedinMexicoandhadnotdraftedwellforfifteenyears..
How many multimillion dollar capital calls have landed on your desk?
Agree that one year of peak Pronger was amazing. When he scored on the penalty shot in game 1 SCF, I dared believe the cup could be Edmonton’s – pride go-eth, etc.
I’d still give Paul Coffey the title of ‘best Oiler D’ since he had a longer period of excellence and identifies as an Oiler.
Pretty amazing life in hockey for Kevin Lowe.
“31.If you were given truth serum, and asked if Kevin Lowe will be part of the organization when this team wins their next Stanley, what would be your answer? Yes.”
I can’t believe you missed this by one measly year. 🙂
I count it in your win column.
Does continuing to be an Oilers Ambassador not count?
WHY YES! Yes it does!
Well played my fine feathered friend.
Once an Oiler, always an Oiler.
Little biased on the writeup there eh, LOWEtide?!
It’s sad to think that with Lowe retiring, the clock starts on when someone from a younger generation will visit this site and wonder what the name of the site is referencing.
Everyone is getting so old.
I could have sworn that LT once said that he took the nickname from Ron Low.
It was homage to Kevin Lowe, and a direct theft of Ron Low’s nickname.
And to think that if the Oilers had drafted the guy who went eleven picks later instead of Lowe, we would be reading a blog called Rufftrade.
Theme song for the radio show–“High School Confidential”, natch.
lol. Instead of “on the old Al Gore” it would have been “Never Said I loved You.”
Jesper Bratt signed for 1 year x $5.45 million. The sides avoid arbitration, and he will still be an RFA at the end of this coming season.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nhl/devils-avoid-arbitration-sign-bratt-to-1-year-2454m-deal/ar-AA10guMk
HH is licking his chops wondering how this Bratt signing will impact Lou Lamoriello and whether he can sign Kadri.
I realize ranking these things is somewhat meaningless, but I give todays post SIX STARS!
The 2005-06 Oilers were the most blue collar roster of all the blue collar rosters in Oilers history imo.
Led by a blue collar coach, Craig MacTavish.(perfect fit for this roster)
Blue collar forwards: Hemsky, Horcoff, Stoll, Pisani, Moureau, Reasoner, Peca, Murray, and the legendary Ryan Smyth.
Blue collar D: Staios, Spacek, Ulanov, Semenov, Greene, Tarnstrom, and El Capitain Jason Smith.
Heck, even our goalies were blue collar, Roloson / Markkanen
I SO enjoyed this teams identity. More so than any Oilers roster that succeeded it… UNTIL NOW!
Nice Sail On writeup LT.
Still a couple of years to run on this one.
It’s still unknown, but I’d say things look a lot more promising than in 2014.
On paper the Avs are still way too strong a team and asking the Oilers to beat them with their current roster would need a fair bit of luck. They are closer but probably have to make a couple more trades involving popular players. Just my take, I think as long as we have Connor and Leon with some good depth, anything is possible.
Yeah, we’ll see.
Obviously the most recent Cup winner remains a favorite, but it’s tough to stay on top. I thought the conference final was a lot closer than the 4-0 record indicated too.
Plus the Avalanche have lost some really key pieces in the last month (top 5 goalie, #3 and #4 scoring forwards).
It’s interesting, both teams largely just held onto their in-season additions (Kane, Kulak, Lehkonen, Manson), but with Colorado losing other important players.
Every team needs luck to win the Cup, but I don’t believe the gap between Edmonton and Colorado is particularly huge where they stand today.
If they fail to sign Kadri, it will leave a massive hole at 2C. They don’t have an adequate replacement.
Sure they do.
Mikko Rantanen.
Serious question since you seem to watch the Avalanche a fair amount.
What % of last year’s team would you say their current roster represents?
Forget what they might do or can do. As it sits today are they 90% as strong as last year’s cup winner?
Give me a number.
At the moment…I would suggest about 95% but I don’t think they’re done yet.
They still have $3.9 million in cap space with no one left to sign, zero dead cap and a bonus overage of a mere $25,000.
The biggest gamble of course is Georgiev in goal but I can’t imagine Dawson Spriggings didn’t do his due diligence on the signing and, in any event, they are good enough to win consistently even with league average goaltending.
And, as some here would be hesitant to admit, Cale Makar at 23 is just getting started so I expect progression from him and Sam Girard next season and the sky is the limit for Bowen Byram.
Lehkonen is a more than adequate replacement for Burakovsky at a great cap hit while Alex Newhook will be growing into a more prominent role.
They also pulled off the free agent signing of Ben Myers who was the most sought after NCAA grad and he looked very good in a short audition at the end of last season.
Depending on how, or if, they spend to the cap, they could actually be better than last season.
Scary.
Forget what they might do or can do.
=================
I’m guessing you have never been any good at following instructions. 😉
I’m not that optimistic for them. Makar will be better and so will Byram but I don’t think Girard will be. Johnson, Cogliano, Helm all nearing the end and, yes, they are just depth but depth has a role in keeping your talent fresh.
I’d say about 90% of what they were and that is pretty impressive because winning always seems to cost teams good players. And the lineups in September are never the same as they are come April. The cream of the WC but weaker imo.
Goalie will be the place to watch. I wouldn’t be surprised if they hold on to cap money just in case they need to do something there if the bet doesn’t work. It would be prudent.
I dunno, I’d say 90% is a pretty generous number after the losses of Kuemper, Kadri and Burakovsky. But yes, goaltending will be the key.
I’d say so too but I try to be magnanimous in victory. 😉
Haha, fair enough.
No one left to sign aside from 2 players to fill out their roster (so not really ‘no one left to sign’ at all).
Ben Myers – $912K
Brad Hunt – $762K
Already signed and easy to send to the Eagles at a moment’s notice.
Right, but when they fill out their roster they only have about $2M in cap space, not $3.9M.
Rantanen who just this season for the 1st time in his career took what most would say is a good amount of face offs.. Under 50%
In the playoffs.. Under 42%
He is not a Kadri replacement, if he is.. The western conference is wide open.
MacKinnon was 45%…I guess he’s not a centre either. 🙂
Rantanen also didn’t play C even when Kadri was out.
Because they had a lot of options and still do.
“If Kadri doesn’t sign with the Avs, has there been any indication of what the Plan B would be for a 2C? It doesn’t seem that the Avs are comfortable with an internal solution currently. — Chris S.
MacFarland said the Avalanche are comfortable if they end up going into the season with their current forward group. There’s no rush for the team to figure out a Kadri replacement, and I wouldn’t expect the front office to do anything reactionary.
This is a roster more than capable of winning a lot of regular-season games, so the team could give Newhook and Compher a shot in the top six, see how they do and then upgrade if necessary at the trade deadline. Rantanen can also play center and could make sense there if the Avalanche find a top-six wing they like.”
https://theathletic.com/3435565/2022/07/20/nazem-kadri-avalanche-mailbag-alex-newhook/
It also wouldn’t surprise me if they acquired Paul Statsny on a cheap one year deal.
I think Chris S’s original question captures the situation more accurately than MacFarland saying ‘we’re comfortable with what we’ve got’.
Stastny definitely seems like a possible answer though, as is ‘giving Newhook and Compher a shot’.
However you want to frame it though, Kadri departing is a significant loss for the Avs.
Don’t entirely disagree but will be offset by expected improvements from Newhook, Makar, Girard and Byram.
We’ll see how much.
Yes, they should get some internal growth, as should the Oilers.
Why are you expecting notable improvement from Girard though?
He’s 24, has played 5 years in the league, he’s had a negative GF% relative to team for each of the last 3 seasons.
He’s a fine enough defenseman, but you’ve even been calling him a value contract. I’m not sure he’s that, or why you think he’s going to continue to improve from here.
You do realize negative relative to a team with Makar and Toews is spuriously nonsensical, right?
You realize you’ve been touting a player as elite who was -2 at even strength last year, and had a 48%xGF.
On the Avalanche.
That’s hard to do.
You also said nothing about why you think this 24 year old with 5 seasons of experience is expected to improve year over year.
If the Oilers get lucky next year and all of Connor, Leon and Darnell can stay healthy for the playoff run, then I think it is reasonable to expect a similar, if not better performance than this year.
I agree that the sweep didn’t quite capture how things played out considering three of the four games were essentially one goal games. Only Game 2 was a real, legitimate thumping. Because of this, I’ll always have a little bit of wonder for how things may have turned out with a bit more luck in the health department.
There is little doubt the Avs remain the cream of the West and the “team to beat”. At the same time, they are a year away from MacKinnon’s cap hit likely more than doubling and, at least for me, some cracks in management decisions have already started:
1) downgrading the starting goaltending (big time based on the results of the last few years) and locking in that new starter for decent money/term prior to it being “earned” (in my opinion).
2) $6.125MM X 8 (plus material trade protection) for Nichushkin – I mean, that was a very good season and playoffs but its only been one season and, frankly, I don’t think the ceiling is any higher than what we just saw. Best case scenario for me is that he provides value for his cap hit in any given year and little chance of him providing excess value and very likely less than value in many of the years (cap going up changes that analysis but that’s for all players).
3) $4.5MM X 4 (plus material trade protection) for Manson – my goodness, he has a big injury history, has regressed the last couple of years and wasn’t all that good for the Avs – not to mention, he turns 31 as the season starts, and right at the age where the “stay at home rugged d-man” generally regresses and often the cliff is early.
These are some interesting bets from this off-season (not to mention losing Burakovsky and, likely, Kadri from last year’s team).
The Oilers lost a slugfest but they landed punches. I expect the Oilers learned a lot from the playoffs and that series loss.
#AndItWasEffingOffside -).
I think this statement, right here, provides some fairly substantial evidence of how some of these models have some fairly big flaws:
“Even Zach Hyman’s deal, which looked okay-ish when it was signed, has turned into the red here — though it’s still not a bad deal by any means.”
https://theathletic.com/3467384/2022/08/03/nhl-contract-rankings/
We know that Hyman’s on-ice numbers are not great – he was a “minus player” with not great possession numbers, etc. (I believe), hence, he shows poor on these types of models.
I mean, despite what the on-ice numbers say, does anyone that watches the Oilers really think that his “contract value” diminished due to his performance this regular season?
Of course, one can make arguments the contract isn’t good, mainly due to its term, but its almost an embarrassing argument (in my opinion) to opine that (1) he wasn’t full value for his cap hit this past season and playoffs and (2) his contract value went down due to his performance this past season.
The above would mean one didn’t watch Oiler games generally, I would think, no?
Dom’s methodology punishes long contracts that go well into a player’s 30’s and will ultimately provide negative value against the age curve. Eg. Hyman, Nuge, Nurse. The idea here being that UFA contracts typically don’t offer high long-term value.
However, they reward shorter contracts where the team may lose a player for nothing in his prime (eg. Matthews UFA in two years).
Nor does his model acknowledge the efficiency of ELC contracts that will be of great benefit to the Oilers, as compared to say the Leafs, as we’ll have all of Bouchard, Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgault contributing at well beneath market value. For Toronto, they have no impact players on ELC’s, unless you are bullish on Rodion Amirov.
Finally, his model doesn’t take goaltenders into account. Tough to call the Matt Murray contract anything but negative value.
It was a summer fluff piece, and for a guy whose brand is highly analytical it was awfully fluffy.
The Leafs have a superior prospect pool.
Amirov is actually their 4th ranked prospect.
https://theathletic.com/3072179/2022/01/27/wheelers-2022-nhl-prospect-pool-rankings-no-15-toronto-maple-leafs/?source=user_shared_article
It was a summer fluff piece, and for a guy whose brand is highly analytical it was awfully fluffy.
===============
With the compressed summer as the league seeks to get back on schedule we appear to have invented ‘summer fluff’ week as all these league wide rankings are appearing suddenly.
There are 32 teams playing over 2600 regular season games so league wide assessments are pretty much guaranteed to be formula based. Human activity is notoriously difficult to fit into formulas at the individual level with anything resembling accuracy.
Entertainment value only.
Well said OP.
27 goals 27 assists. An all purpose player PP. PK. EV.
20 minutes a night;
oiGF 89 oiGA 80
CF% rel +2.7 FF% rel +2.6
PK CF% rel +5.1 FF% rel +5.8
He’s being asked to play a different role here than he was in Toronto.
You staple Hyman’s butt to the top line and he outperforms his contract imo..
As a plug and play rover, he is at least fair value.
I would agree that ranking Hyman as a worse bet now than when the contract would sign shows flaws in the modeling. I am way more comfortable with the contract now than before and I imagine I am not in the minority. But I don’t expect the modeling to be anywhere near perfect – the question I am most interested in is if it’s getting better year over year.
the question I am most interested in is if it’s getting better year over year.
———————
No.
Oh, come on now, surely that post was worthy of more than 2 down votes. 😉
I’m like you, more comfortable with the contract now than I was when it was signed. I was worried about his durability and playoff production. He had never scored more than a single goal in a playoff series. And had been missing too many games the 3 years previous. In the playoffs, he eased that part of my worry. And only missed 7 games last year. Hasn’t quite eased that worry, yet. But the playoff scoring was the bigger one I’m glad he erased.
That was a rather depressing way to end the Q and A. This team has shown a steady progression for the last few years. Once the dead cap space expires and salary cap goes up, I think we should be a perennial favorite. Even now, all we need is Colorado to hit some bad luck and we’re in the convo for Stanley. Imagine when we can afford another top D with some physicality.
Katz has made some mistakes, but to say he is “going the wrong way” seems too harsh
It was written eight years ago
ha ha!
Ahh the “originally published” comment. That’ll teach me to read the small print on my iphone. I thought the answers seemed out of place for you. Taken in their proper context, it all makes sense now
The “bad luck” may have started:
1) downgrading the starting goaltending (big time based on the results of the last few years) and locking in that new starter for decent money/term prior to it being “earned” (in my opinion).
2) $6.125MM X 8 (plus material trade protection) for Nichushkin – I mean, that was a very good season and playoffs but its only been one season and, frankly, I don’t think the ceiling is any higher than what we just saw. Best case scenario for me is that he provides value for his cap hit in any given year and little chance of him providing excess value and very likely less than value in many of the years (cap going up changes that analysis but that’s for all players).
3) $4.5MM X 4 (plus material trade protection) for Manson – my goodness, he has a big injury history, has regressed the last couple of years and wasn’t all that good for the Avs – not to mention, he turns 31 as the season starts, and right at the age where the “stay at home rugged d-man” generally regresses and often the cliff is early.
These are some interesting bets from this off-season (not to mention losing Burakovsky and, likely, Kadri from last year’s team).
As a kid who grew up with the Boys on The Bus, Lowe will always be an important part of my childhood. Regardless of later, his tiered comment and overall arrogance. That Pronger trade was legendary, that entire trade deadline was.
So is this the year the Western Conference becomes the Campbell conference again??
A tip of the hat to your clever Campbell Conference comment, Clarence.
Cheers.