Xavier Bourgault has nine goals and 19 points in the first 38 games of his AHL career. The young Bakersfield Condors winger is the feature offensive player among a group of rookies who are trying to matriculate to the NHL in the seasons to come. How does Bourgault’s season (.5 pts-game) compare to past AHL rookies in the Oilers system?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time
- New DNB: Oilers trade target: Scouting Blue Jackets defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- New DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
- Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defence evolving through a period of transition
- DNB: Why 11/7 works, Klim Kostin the folk hero, Jack Campbell’s progress
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Making the call on young Oilers in need of a contract this summer
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
TOP ROOKIE SCORERS, AGE 20 FORWARDS IN THE AHL
- Tyler Benson 2018-19. 68 games, 15-51-66 (.97 pts-game)
- Rob Schremp 2006-07. 69 games, 17-36-53 (.77 pts-game)
- Jesse Puljujarvi 2016-17. 39 games, 12-16-28 (.72 pts-game)**
- Marc Pouliot 2005-06. 65 games, 15-30-45 (.69 pts-game)
- Jean-Francois Jacques 2005-06. 65 games, 24-20-44 (.68 pts-game)
- Dylan Holloway 2021-22. 33 games, 8-14-22 (.67 pts-game)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2018-19. 27 games, 10-8-18 (.67 pts-game)
- Teemu Hartikainen 2010-11. 66 games, 17-25-42 (.64 pts-game)
- Kyle Brodziak 2004-05. 56 games, 6-26-32 (.57 pts-game)
- Slava Trukhno 2007-08. 64 games, 14-21-35 (.55 pts-game)
- Xavier Bourgault 2022-23. 38 games, 9-10-19 (.50 pts-game)
- Bogdan Yakimov 2014-15. 57 games, 12-16-28 (.49 pts-game)
- Marco Roy 2015-16. 42 gamees, 8-12-20 (.48 pts-game)
- Raphael Lavoie 2021-22. 56 games, 13-13-26 (.46 pts-game)
- Tyler Tullio 2022-23. 33 games, 8-7-15 (.45 pts-game)
- Ryan McLeod 2019-20. 56 games, 5-18-23 (.41 pts-game)
- Carter Savoie 2022-23. 30 games, 8-3-11 (.37 pts-game)
- Tyler Pitlick 2011-12. 62 games, 7-16-23 (.37 pts-game)
- ** Puljujarvi was 18, all others 20.
Every year when I write the ‘farm workers’ post, make a point of writing about the successful forwards who come out of the AHL. They are names like Daniel Cleary, Jason Chimera, Fernando Pisani, and on this list (goes back almost 20 years) Kyle Brodziak.
The NHL skill forwards spend little or no time in the minors. On this list, Kailer Yamamoto (50 AHL, 217 NHL games) is averaging 17-23-40 per 82 games. Daniel Cleary, a completely different player, averaged 14-20-34 per 82 games during his career in the NHL. The most impressive player on this list is Jesse Puljujarvi, who was 18 when he posted the third best totals on the list. He is 13-16-29 per 82 games in the NHL.
What I’m saying is this: The 60-point a season NHL forward probably didn’t play in Bakersfield or Oklahoma City. Here are the top nine NHL seasons (based on points-per-game) for the men on this list.
- Kailer Yamamoto 2019-20 (.96 pts-game)
- Rob Schremp 2009-10 (.57 pts-game)
- Jesse Puljujarvi 2021-22 (.55 pts-game)
- Kyle Brodziak 2011-12 (.54 pts-game)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2021-22 (.51 pts-game)
- Kyle Brodziak 2010-11 (.46 pts-game)
- Kyle Brodziak 2017-18 (.41 pts-game)
- Marc Pouliot 2009-10 (.40 pts-game)
- Kailer Yamamoto 2020-21 (.40 pts-game)
I think it’s fair to say that Yamamoto and Puljujarvi are the two skill forwards who both posted strong AHL numbers and then spent time on an NHL skill line. Dylan Holloway posted a .67 pts-game total at 20 in the AHL, matching the Yamamoto season. I think Bourgault, Tullio and Savoie have room to grow offensively this season. If .67 pts-game is the line in the sand for a skill line, that’s six more points for Bourgault. It will be fun to track over the rest of this season.
CONDORS FORWARDS, 2022-23
My sincere thanks to Eric Rodgers for compiling the even-strength goals, it’s a great insight into what is happening. Noah Philp is really emerging now as a player who can help with outscoring in Bakersfield. Both Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio just past 50 percent. Raphael Lavoie is just under that line in the sand, and Carter Savoie is improving of late. Tyler Benson is just back now, look for his numbers to climb in goal differential. I don’t know how much trade value any of these cats have at the deadline, but do believe Lavoie could be available.
CONDORS DEFENCE, 2022-23
First thing: At even strength, Bakersfield has a goal differential of 81-85, 49 percent. So anything under that percentage should be considered a struggle (Philip Broberg’s time is a small sample). Second, based on observation, Markus Niemelainen, Vincent Desharnais, Phil Kemp, Mike Kesselring and Philip Broberg all played tougher minutes at times during the season. There isn’t a signed player on this roster that has played protected minutes, the Condors simply haven’t had that kind of luxury. If they did, Yanni Kaldis would be playing those soft minutes, he has struggled defensively.
Mike Kesselring is below the Mendoza Line here, and Phil Kemp has emerged in this area. I’m not sure who might get recalled first, but both men have made their case while also plotting very different paths in 2022-23. Kemp, always a reliable defensive player, has delivered again, while also chipping in on offense.
Kesselring spiked as a goal scorer (10 goals early!) and has shown an ability to get under the opposition’s skin. He has also had some chaos defensively. I rate Kesselring>Kemp but it’s somewhat arbitrary and not written in stone. Both men have shown some range this year.
Markus Niemelainen is an excellent defenseman at this level. I’m not sure there will be room on next year’s NHL roster for him, but he’s bona fide and NHL-ready in my opinion.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A fun, busy day on TSN 1260 10-2. Steve Lansky will by live in studio, a rare treat in these days of miracle and wonder. Lee “Hacksaw” Hamilton will talk NFL weekend and Tyler Yaremchuk from ON and Daily Faceoff will talk Oilers. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soup!
Glad Jack is ready at the start of the game. Hoping the rest of his team will join in shortly
“comrade mate”
Is that terminology used by members of the Australian Communist Party? Why would a communist be involved in such an enterprise?
Nora Pitts, you are an enigma, but most likely you are extraterrestrial in origin.
Whatever this is, it is a trick. Thankfully I am not a cat, but I’ve got to go right meow.
Thanks for actually reading that to find “comrade mate”
LA 4 pts out of 1st in West with -6 goal differential wtf.
I just noticed that an underdog favourite of mine, Filip Engaras, was traded by Bakersfield to Utica for the 2 years older Garrett Van Whye. Unlike Engaras, Van Whye is undrafted and played 1 AHL game last season after signing out of Michigan.
This player, a forward, posts minimal offence, but scored a goal in his first Fort Wayne game.
Sail on Skellefteå Allmäna Idrottsklubb.
Warren Foegele is shooting a career low 6.9% 5v5
Summarizing!
No goals, but a few apples for the NA prospects.
One assist each for Lachance, Määttä, Brind’Amour and Wanner.
No soup for Mazura, Schaefer and Chiasson.
Münzenberger did not dress tonight.
Brind’Amour was 12-for-17 (70.6!!) on draws, while Määttä went 7-for-12 (58.3%).
Don’t think I’ve ever seen this before. SJ let in two goals tonight with less than 2 minutes left in the game. And this was AFTER SJ scored an empty netter to make it 4-2!!!
R. Lavoie with 3 more points tonight (so far) and full value for creating all night long.
This is VERY heartening. He had a 6 game heater but the only had one poor game and a half before heating right back up and this stretch has lasted almost 15 games – first time he’s done this as a pro.
In 19 games beginning around Christmas last season, Lavoie scored 11-9-20.
https://theahl.com/stats/player/8663/73/raphael-lavoie
If Calgary beats Seattle tonight, it’s a mere 5 point spread between 1st and 5th in the Pacific, with all 5 teams within a whisker of each other points %-wise. It’s essentially a dead heat.
The Kings seem to play the Oilers tough. the Vegans have a lot of talent, the Flames are annoying AF, and the Kraken are covered in fairy dust. They all have lousy goaltending.
For a playoff matchup, who would you want the Oil to play the most?
Who would you want them to play the least?
1. Seattle
2. Calgary
3. LA
4. Vegas
Thing is…all of SEA, CAL and LAK are expected to make major additions at the deadline so it’s very hard to handicap at this point.
No loser points for the Kraken tonight. Their unsustainable shooting % and bad goaltending is starting to catch up with them. When Martin Jones is your saviour in net, you just know that you’re winning cause of a whole lot of horseshoes. I don’t see them making the playoffs. I do hope that they blow a bunch a futures on Horvat and are the lucky ones to sign him after an unsustainable career year to an inflated contract that cripple their cap space for a decade.
1. Seattle would have to make some pretty serious additions.
2. In treviling you trust?
3. Goalie?
4. If they are healthy, would be a good series
I’m curious if anybody out there is getting the Canucks/Columbus game on old timey cable..?
If yes, please list your provider and what part of the world you are watching from
I’ve got the full package from Shaw cable in BC, including the NHL package, and this game is blacked out for me (on 2 different channels, including my paid subscription)
It’s not a big deal, it’s just I’ve never seen a blacked out game here and I’ve lived in BC for 35 years
=============
* I can get a working stream on NHL66, I was curious about ‘legitimate’ options
** I think it’s being streamed on Sportsnet Premium
It is on Sportsnet Now but there were a few games that could not be watched tonight.
At one point only TOR/OTT was available now getting the VCR/CLB and CAL/SEA games.
Noth the Canucks and Flames leading 3-1 after one.
thank you
I agree it’s (probably) related to the heavy (and overlapping) schedule tonight
I’ve got
-Sportsnet 360 is showing WWE wrestling
-Sportsnet One -Flames and Kraken
-Sportsnet Pacific -blacked out although Canucks/Columbus is listed in the guide- this is where the Canucks usually broadcast even if you DON’T pay for the NHL package (which I do)
-Sportsnet East,Ontairo, and West are all broadcasting other programs
-10+ NHL channels in my paid subscription, 1 of which is the Canucks/Columbus- which is also blacked out
It’s not huge deal, I wouldn’t be watching anyway, I’ve just never seen a Canucks game blacked out before
Yeah…no reason at all that the Canucks game should be blacked out and, as I mentioned it is streaming so it just might be someone in Toronto asleep at the switch.
that’s what I thought too but we’re now well into the 2nd period and you’d figure someone would have been alerted by now
I also checked the low def channels and there’s nothing – if I’m Joe Average Canucks fan that pays for cable and the NHL package I’d be pissed off tonight
Yep…I would guess Shaw and Telus are hearing about it.
Is attendance down? Isn’t that why they usually why they black out games (gentle reminder to go to the game since the arena isn’t full)?
Probably blacked out because of the Calgary game.
Calgary would be on SNW while Vancouver is on SNP.
Still, there would be parts of the Flames broadcast area that would require blackout.
I get what you’re saying – Squamish used to be “outside the Canucks broadcast region” back in the day, despite being 35 minutes from Horseshoe Bay LoL
But in 2023, I think ALL of BC is Canucks territory as far a Sportsnet is concerned
Update*
I’m now getting picture on SNP, but no sound, but it may be between periods
I’ll update once the 3rd periond starts – I think this was a malfunction at the Junction
Don’t know about attendance but that was the “company line” in the 70s and 80s..does attendance affect league decision making and broadcast rights in 2023..?
It’s either:
-a mistake
-something in the fine print of the Rogers deal with regard to “total number of games” broadcast on a single day – as mentioned, it’s been wall to wall hockey all day on Sportsnet
-a league/team decision to reintroduce a new version of designated Pay Per View games..this was common about 15 years ago as HDTV was just getting traction…all 82 games were still NOT available on TV, but there was a handful of single games you could purchase one at a time. This product ended when NHL Center Ice and Game Center was introduced (and Sportsnet NOW) This game tonight appears to be available ONLY to Sportsnet NOW subscribers
Like I said, it’s not a huge deal, I’m just curious about these things
I don’t know why I got all wound up about this, it’s Garrett and Shorthouse LOL
I’ve got picture but no sound and the 3rd period is under way
Yeah, my understanding of this isn’t quite from the 70s/80s, but sounds like it’s still very outdated. I am also curious at this point.
Yes, it’s curious
LT mentioned something a minute ago that I didn’t clue into immediately – the Flames are IN Seattle, so perhaps the Calgary presence IN Seattle triggered some broadcast restriction rules, although that doesn’t make sense to me either, because the Calgary game has been ON the whole time
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-game-blacked-out-shaw-responding
Glitch of some sort – they’ve got top men working on it now
I’ve still got no sound
Thanks for the detective work 🙂
cable? what’s that?
(I haven’t paid for cable TV since about 2003) I simply don’t get enough use out of it to justify the cost, hockey games are easily streamed + I despise cable news & commercials.
Condors look awful tonight. Just putrid.
Last game before a nice break in the action except for the All-Stars that includes Skinner. So why would Woody start Skinner? Skinner who’s going to be busy and by the way he’s lost 3 out his last 4 over Campbell that’s won 5 games in a row and who’s on after hours which I believe gives a little more juice to win and play good. Why Woody Why??
There is no indication that he’s going to start Skinner over Campbell. Maybe he ends up going that way but there has been nothing over the last few days to suggest that one will start over the other.
I’ve come around on the idea to get Karlsson. With Broburg coming the 2LHD may be redundant very soon. It’s go time and with Karlsson on the 1st pair it all makes sense. As for the trade with SJS:
– SJS retain the max this season and about $3 million after that (like Burns). Max retention this season (almost $6 million) is key. That isn’t a big ask for the remainder of this season. I think this is possible?
– send guys with contracts next year (Yamo and Foegle) which takes out $5.5 from this year and next year.
– Bouchard or Barrie (add a pick if Barrie – no pick if Bouchard)
The big thing is getting max retention for the rest of this season (again if possible) and getting rid of contracts with term left next year. The on-going $3 million retention is manageable for SJS and we get cap flexibility next summer. We could even keep Barrie this year and deal him over the summer if SJS (or someone else) does max retention this season.
Get Karlsson. It’s go time with 2/3 years left on Drai/McD contracts.
The percent of retainment must be the same for all years.
Can a third team take some this year or must it take some every year?
Same, every year.
If a team retains 5%, 10%, 25%, 50% – its the same for each remaining year of the contract.
Vegas loses in reg to the Rangers put Panthers suck and can’t beat the Kings.
Rodrigue gets the start tonight – only his 3rd of 2023 which boggles my mind – he should be splitting, at least, with the AHL vet, in my opinion.
Rest of the lineup stays the same which means Kambeits healthy scratched again.
Vinny D on After Hours tomorrow – followed by Jack Campbell.
what’s hard to understand about
“I’m making 80 US dollars for every hr. to finish some internet providers from home.”
Thinking again about Gavrikov, and how to evaluate Dmen more generally.
Yesterday I posted about Gavrikov’s on ice numbers relative to team and compared them to Kulak’s (Gavrikov’s are a bit better). Gavrikov has also played a lot more minutes than Kulak, and done it against the opposition’s top comp.
Ryan questioned the use of relative (to team) numbers, since you’d expect a decent player to perform better compared to poor teammates than against high end teammates if he was on a quality team (using Megna, Bouchard and Bear as examples who show up in the top 10 of FF% rel). While I still think it’s clear that relative to team results are closer to reality than using raw numbers across teams, I do agree they’re not perfect.
Adding a TOI component removes those guys who don’t appear to belong (this is largely what GeorgeXS was arguing for a while back).
Sow how does a TOI cutoff plus a FF%rel cutoff do in predicting top defensemen? Gavrikov played 17:55/game at 5v5 over the past 2 seasons (Kulak 15:45), so I’ll use 17+ minutes/game and a positive FF% rel as the cutoffs here.
79 Dmen played 17+ minutes/game. Of those, 44 Dmen had a positive FF% rel. They are:
Erik Karlsson
Jakob Chychrun
Adam Fox
Charlie McAvoy
Devon Toews
Cale Makar
Adam Pelech
Zach Werenski
MacKenzie Weegar
K’Andre Miller
Seth Jones
Miro Heiskanen
Quinn Hughes
Mike Matheson
Dmitry Orlov
Rasmus Dahlin
Victor Hedman
Dougie Hamilton
Jacob Trouba
Shea Theodore
Roman Josi
Thomas Chabot
Cam Fowler
Hampus Lindholm
Jeff Petry
Josh Morrissey
Jonas Brodin
Drew Doughty
Ivan Provorov
Vince Dunn
Jonas Siegenthaler
Damon Severson
Shayne Gostisbehere
Justin Faulk
Alex Pietrangelo
Adam Larsson
Ryan Suter
Darnell Nurse
Mikhail Sergachev
Filip Hronek
Vladislav Gavrikov
Rasmus Ristolainen
Jaccob Slavin
Artem Zub
That’s a quality list. All of the top 12 paid defensemen in the NHL are on the list of 44. #13 (OEL) just misses the FF% cutoff. #14 (Carlson) just misses the TOI cutoff. The list did a good job identifying the best of the best though.
There are also some names that don’t belong among the best of the best (including Gavrikov), but that’s not what an acquiring team is going to be paying for in Gavrikov’s case. He’d be 2nd pair on the Oilers at least, and it sounds like he’s asking to be paid as a 2nd pair Dman wherever his next deal is.
So the more relevant question may be, is there anyone on that list who isn’t at least a good 2nd pairing defenseman? There’s a few you could argue about I guess, but there sure aren’t many.
Maybe Gavrikov is somehow an exception, but I feel like this is a pretty decent argument that he’s a good defenseman. Probably an above average 2nd pair Dman? Seem fair?
And since Gavrikov is near the bottom of the FF% rel cutoff (+0.22), here is the list of players within +/- 1 FF% (ie – 17+ minutes of TOI, and between +1.22 and -0.78 FF% rel).
There are 22 of them:
Jonas Siegenthaler
Damon Severson
Shayne Gostisbehere
Justin Faulk
Alex Pietrangelo
Adam Larsson
Ryan Suter
Darnell Nurse
Mikhail Sergachev
Filip Hronek
Vladislav Gavrikov
Rasmus Ristolainen
Jaccob Slavin
Artem Zub
Owen Power
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Travis Sanheim
Mikey Anderson
Brent Burns
Tyler Myers
Morgan Rielly
Anton Stralman
Definitely less impressive, but still a pretty solid group I think.
Flipping your list around, there’s a lot of good d at the bottom of the pile, many that also miss the Toi cutoff.
Sean Durzi
(Codi Ceci)
Zach Whitecloud
Colton Parayko
Brett Pesce
Brady Skjej
Kris Letang
Rasmus Anderson
Ryan Graves
John Marino
Nick Jensen
Tony Deangelo
Gustav Forsling
Brett Burns
It would be interesting to group those player into 2 or maybe 3tiers based upon their team‘s status as playoff vs non playoff teams (+/- bubble)
The Blue Jackets are just so bad.
The question with Gavrikov, since the Jackets are an outlier, is whether or not you’re just using the tel team to trick yourself and to hide the fact that his actual rate numbers for possession and goals are actually really poor.
One the one hand your technique identifies a list of mostly very good defensemen, which is what it’s supposed to do…
The question in my mind is whether it means anything, in terms of the ranking.
For example, if you stratify NHL forwards by something simple like points, it actually does a pretty good job at ranking forwards.
That’s the cream of the crop. No debate. You can run into arguments as you go further down the list.
As long as you account for games played, you’re in pretty good shape, though.
For your list, the problem is the idea of ranking.
Is Chychrun better than Makar?
Is K’Andre Miller better than Roman Josi?
In short, your method identifies a lot of good defensemen, but is there anything there, like at all, that tells you one ranked higher is any better than those ranked lower on the list?
It does seem to identify mostly very good defensemen. Expecting them to be ranked perfectly is an incredibly high (impossible?) bar.
If it’s successfully identifying very good defensemen then yes, the ranking must be accurate to some degree. Guys like Savard and Chariot get weeded out by the FF% part.
QoC, partner, normalizing relative to team, injury would all be factors that could throw the absolute ranking off. FF% is also being used to sort, so there’s clearly things that aren’t being captured.
Still, I’m surprised something this simple does this good a job (what IS Dom spending all that time doing?!).
And I hope it’s clear I’m not intending to claim Gavrikov is the 40th best defenseman in the NHL here.
I just wonder, is it possible to find yourself on a list like this without being a pretty good defenseman?
Remember, the consensus seems to be that Gavrikov wouldn’t be much/any better than Kulak, and won’t be worth the $4-5M deal he’ll get from someone.
Finding himself on this list seems to argue otherwise.
Whether you’re aware of it or not, and I am assuming that you are, the most impactful measure that you’re using is actually the Toi cutoff.
There are only 2.5 17 min 5v5 d per team on average. Some teams like Colorado actually have three 17 min per night d, yet others like the Oilers only have one.
That alone is a pretty select group.
If you remove from that group those that are possession drags, that’s a nice cut too.
If we look at your method simply as a litmus test, then I agree that it works very well.
Yes, 100% the TOI is the main factor there. Also the most reproducible statistic as Georgexs showed. Though the possession cutoff really is important to remove some of the guys that don’t pass the eye test.
That is the question.
In terms of putting the players in team tiers, that makes sense but it’s still messy since the cutoffs blur together. Looking, the FF% tails at the team level do stretch out (seem to follow a bell curve).
CBJ had the 4th worst FF%, but were closer to SJ (10th worst) than to ANA (the worst). Once you get to BUF (11th worst) you’re basically at break even.
The worst 10 are:
32- ARI 43.6
31- CHI 44.5
30- ANA 45.9
29- CBJ 46.1
28- DET 46.2
27- MTL 46.4
26- STL 46.6
25- NYI 47.0
24- PHI 47.4
23- SJS 47.8
22- BUF 48.9
Fading players on ARI and SJS equally wouldn’t improve things I don’t think. I agree players on worse teams should probably be faded some, but I have no idea exactly how much.
On the flip side, I think usage should also be accounted for (but again, no idea exactly how much). Gavrikov scores really high there, 1st in raw and % TOI vs elites this season and last.
He also had very tough zone starts. I know they don’t correlate much with results, but I suspect they still matter at the extremes. Gavrikov was had the 4th lowest OZ% (34.9%) of the 194 defensemen who played 1000 minutes the last 2 seasons (the starting group for all this). And he had the very lowest OZ% of the 79 D who played 17+ minutes (which allowed Werensk, the other Blue Jacket on the list, to start 58% in the OZ).
My best guess is that the fading from being on a poor team should roughly be canceled out by the bump he deserves for unusually difficult minutes, but that’s just a guess.
The other thing is that if he actually is no good, he’d have to be the one and only exception on the list. It looks like there are 13 other Dmen from bottom 10 FF% teams, but they all pass the smell test OK.
Do you mean the FF% cutoff?
Ceci makes the 17+ minute cutoff, but misses the FF%rel one by a fair margin.
Durzi only plays 15:10 and has an even worst FF%rel, so he misses the list badly on both counts. Whitecloud is similar, not close to reaching either cutoff.
Parayko plays an absolute ton (2nd in TOI) but his FF%rel is pretty bad. Like Gavrikov he also plays the toughest comp, and with lots of Dzone starts. Surprisingly STL is almost as bad a team as CBJ in terms of FF%.
One last thing I forgot to mention on Gavrikov. His main partner has been Andrew Peake.
Looking at the WOWYs, Gavrikov has been much better without Peake. Part of that is he and Peake seem to have played the most difficult minutes together, but Gavrikov’s results are better without Peake than Peake’s are without Gavrikov, even though Gavrikov faced tougher DZ starts (I’m using that as a proxy for QoC here). Gavrikov alone also outperformed the team with neither on the ice (but with much tougher zone starts).
The GF% WOWYs are (all samples at least 880 minutes, last 2 seasons):
Gavrikov-Peake 35.6%GF 26.1%OZ starts
xxxxxxxx-Peake 40.7%GF 50.1%OZ
Gavrikov-xxxxxx 47.0%GF 40.9%OZ
Both OFF xxxxx 44.6%GF 57.1%OZ
The other numbers generally follow the GF% pattern. His relative FF% without Peake was +2.2, which would have moved him up to 22nd (between Chabot and Fowler) on the original list of 44 Dmen. I think this indicates Gavrikov could be much better with a different partner.
Interesting to see Jason Robertson at .78 ppg in his first year in the AHL. Who would have predicted this kind of success? Not me.
He scored 48 goals and 117 points in his final OHL season and 25 goals as an AHL rookie.
Hard to fathom how he fell to the second round.
did you just say comrade mate?
What Australian Communist say…”good day comrade mate!”
I think trade suggestions are often funny because we value players differently, we have different ideas of what the team needs, we don’t know what we don’t know and we all have our biases.
So I’m going to throw in my joke, not because I want it but just because it occurred to me as a way to balance the budget for players that some covet.
To Edmonton
Karlsson (Retained $3.125M)
Meier (Retained $3M)
Reimer (Retained $1.125 by a third party because SJ would be at their limit of 3)
Pick(s)
To San Jose
Barrie
Puljujarvi
Campbell
Pick(s)
Money balances at $12.5 and San Jose would really like to get rid of Karlssons salary so they can pick up the pick to get $1.125 retained for the rest of the year. (not that high of a pick)
They want something for Meier
Would Edmonton want to go forward with Skinner and Reimer as was suggested in the summer.
Does Edmonton take a chance on Karlsson’s health and age.
Would San Jose be on Campbells 10 team no trade list.
Also HOW MANY PICKS for Karlsson AND Meier with $6M+ retained??
Just trying to make the cap work. Smarter posters than I can discuss the picks to and fro.
I’m guessing 1 or 2 firsts because San Jose wants out of Karlsson’s contract and they receive two players who may well be traded for more picks easier than Karlsson and Meier due to lower cap hits, which most buyers have trouble fitting under their cap.
Yeah those two players on the Oilers would be wonderful.
Seems like the current ask for each player is in excess of 2 x 1sts though. So the cost for a package like that, with that much money retained, seems like it would be astronomical.
I was just trying to highlight the picks part as being neglected, but by far the greater cost for the Oilers.
Some San Jose fans may ask- why would they want Tyson Barrie (31) or Jack Campbell……?
If you were GM of San Jose, would you do this trade?
Repeating my annual unpopular call to trade a prospect earlier than 90% of the crowd seems comfortable with because odds are he’ll miss.
Trade Bourgault while his perceived value is still high enough to make a difference in a deal.
Ceiling doesn’t appear high enough for what is needed – but some scouts will still likely think so.
I think they should’ve done this with Benson after his ppg year in the AHL.
Bourgault is still young, but I agree his ceiling might be limited. Peterka was a ppg at age 19/20. Ditto Alex Holtz. Both those guys are having limited NHL success.
Alls I’m saying is the expectation for Bourgault to become an impact player in the NHL right away should be tempered.
Is anyone around here even saying this, or are you seeing commentary like that elsewhere?
Most of what I’ve read have him as a project for a year or two more, then finding a role as a complimentary middle six type player. Basically a Yamamoto replacement.
You make a great call on Benson. His strengths and particularly his weaknesses were absolutely glaring. I do think at this point managing him through injuries the team was absolutely attached to him. From my seat, only through observation and no involvement, it was obvious he should have been converted.
The thing judging todays group is that there appears to be more of a plan, and more progressive exposure and use. I think we see a pop in production across the board in the second half. And if Bourgault pops up to .8 on a poor Condors team thats a great sign. Obviously.
46th in rookie scoring by PPG in the AHL.
Pretty good chance the scouts would figure it out.
How many of the 46 have played more than 2 or 3 games though?
44…and the 2 with fewer are playing in the NHL.
Oh my, counting correctly today are we? Well thank you for that. I think we can be forgiven for expecting otherwise.
Lots of guys between 2-10 games that should reasonably not qualify.
Lots of 21 and 22 year old rookies – not equatable to a guy that doesn’t turn 21 until after next season begins.
Bourgault’s box-cars certainly are under-whelming but there is some context to this P/G rookie stat and, of course, box-cars do not tell the entire story – nor did they with Holloway or Yamamoto.
Of course, this “looks bad on the Oilers” stat was not brought up to have a reasoned conversation on the player.
Well it would seem some are balking at the notion of PPG so we can revet to actual scoring stats where Bourgault is tied for 30th.
Of course we have to eliminate anyone who doesn’t have the exact same birthday ad Bourgault.
Thanks good Wyatt Johnston (one pick later) eliminated himself by making the NHL and scoring 13 goals and 21 points so far this season.
And, BTW, he’s only 19 so not “equatable to a guy that doesn’t turn 21 until October.”
Bourgault has the ideal skill set to play right wing with Draisaitl.
This! Don’t let the hhaters distort the fact XB is an important future piece.
Seems odd to place that ceiling on a rookie pro who doesn’t even turn 21 until after next season starts.
Given his pedigree, age, style of play, early PK work as a pro, 2-way maturity, progression of development, etc., he looks to have a fairly high floor in my opinion as a 3RW.
He’s looking like he’ll need another 12 months of development (but that could change) but he’s developing just fine for a bottom third of the first round pick
high floor of 3RW seems pretty hefty to toss towards any rookie in AHL
maybe high floor he does see time at 3RW at some point in his career in the NHL
his actual floor is much much lower than that, too little is known and variance is too high to set his floor as that as well as his ceiling
Barrie has said the team has a nickname for Kostin- they call him “Klimdros”
Kostin is such a breath of fresh air for the team. Check him out when a guy with a Flames jersey want s a pic with him- classic Kostin, he is a beauty.
https://www.reddit.com/r/EdmontonOilers/comments/10mbek6/kostin_dont_do_flames_jerseys/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Brilliant.
It’s not possible to come up with a more funny, light hearted response. The Flames fan is now the biggest Kostin fan in the world.
Against the Jackets, Nurse played 19:55 with Ceci at 5 on 5 and only 1;25 with Bouch and 0:37 with Deharnais.
I would like to see more Bouch with Nurse (they have very good numbers over time and this year) but the coaching staff do seem locked in with Nurse/Ceci.
I will caveat this with the fact that Nurse/Ceci did “show well” in those 20 minutes last game – Almost 18 minutes against Gaudreau with positive possession numbers and expected goal numbers (0-1 real goals).
When they were in the AHL, I posited that both Yamamoto and Holloway’s point production under-represented their impact on the game.
Yamamoto was an absolute scoring-chance creation machine – like every shift – he was playing with 3rd line AHLers who weren’t helping his point production.
Holloway was an absolute puck hound and zone exit/zone entry machine and touched the puck more than any AHL player I’ve seen.
I think Bourgault is full value for his production and, while I do think it under-values his impact a bit (he does play PP2 and PK and is responsible both ways), I don’t think it undervalues to the extent of the other two.
Bourgault is going but I wouldn’t pencil him in as a 2RW/3RW roster fill in October. We still have 2/5 of a season and an off-season but, at this point, I think he’s trending to start next season in the AHL but should push for call-up through the season.
———————-
100% I think that Kesselring has a higher ceiling than Kemp – he’s got top 4 skills (not saying he gets there but his skill-set) but, oh ya, there is chaos in the game. He remains a “rover” that, at times makes Darnell Nurse look like a stay at home guy. He remains a bit of a project but with a real chance.
——————
Noah Phil has been playing full time centre for a while now and that’s the position he needs to be at. He is a smart, responsible and mature player with some skill. I don’t know if he’ll ever have enough offence to play daily at the NHL level but he’s starting to produce a bit more in the AHL and I think he’ll get a long look at camp next season.
Prospectoracious!
Petrov gets a nightov, but the other eight NA prospects are in action.
Quinnipiac’s pair of rare losses last weekend has bumped them down to #3 in the NCAA rankings. Their climb back to the top begins tonight vs. unranked Sacred Heart.
Lachance–#2 in USHL goals–and the Phantoms square off against Chicago, who boasts the #1, 3 + 4 scorers.
Youngstown (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, Määttä) @ 5 p.m.
Quinnipiac (Brind’Amour) @ 5:30 p.m.
Moose Jaw (Wanner) @ 6 p.m.
Saskatoon (Chiasson) @ 7 p.m.
Seattle (Schaefer) @ 8 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Czar time.
To land Erik Jose the Oilers would need to move Barrie, Kulak, Foegele, JP, and a shit load of draft capital.
It would be wild tosee his talents with 97 and 29. The cap gymnastics to pull it off.. I don’t know. I’m still thinking about Kane and Gudas.
Holland would never do it, but if Karlsson played out his contract healthy enough and we’ll enough it would be a completely different team as I see it, as in juggernaut
The health thing is big though, he’s missed a lot of hockey the last few seasons, due diligence
Per Stauffer:
Holloway-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Ryan
Kostin-RNH-Janmark
Foegele-McLeod-Puljujarvi
Hamblin-(Yamamoto-LTIR)
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Barrie
Broberg-Bouchard
Desharnais
Skinner
Campbell
—————
Personally, I’d have Puljujarvi as Drai’s right wing and “defensive conscious” over Ryan.
I’d agree but Derek Ryan just keeps playing good hockey, I imagine rewarding him is a way for the coaches to get it through to the heads of the less professional that they need to bring their A game day in and day out or enjoy the dregs.
Why is he going with Skinner when Campbell is winning. If Skinner starts I hope he has a good game because we really need 2 points with no no injuries.
I don’t really care who starts, but going back to Skinner for 3 in a row after Campbell won 5 straight would be very odd. Barring injury or something it should be Campbell on Saturday.
I don’t think he’s named a starter and Skinner/Campbell split the nets today.
I’d be surprised if Jack didn’t start.
Does Ryan not have a defensive conscience?
Yes, Ryan has a defensive conscience and that is the reason he’s playing on Leon’s right wing.
I’d prefer Jesse Puljujarvi to be the player.
Love those lines.
All lines should be able to win goal share. Nuge line or Drai line could shut down other top lines. McLeod line is fast and aggressive, could be a momentum changing 4th line that can pot a few. 4th line is obviously too expensive for a 4th line though.
My question is who ends up sitting for Desharnais? Or do they take Desharnais himself out now that the forwards are healthy enough.
I imagine they go with 11/7 again tomorrow and one of those forwards comes out.
Woody said after the CBJ loss that they have done very well with 11/7, record wise, and will be sticking with it for a while.
It was the first time I heard him “commit” to something like that as opposed to saying “we reserve the right to be flexible (or words to that effect).
Even though the Oilers are trying to track down Seattle I’m still hoping they lay a licking on the Flames tonight. Calgary sure gives up a lot of 5 alarm bell chances when Tanev is out of the line-up.
I hope both teams pummel eachother into forfeit.
BUT … avoid awarding any Bettman point. Calgary is very good at tying (and often losing). I abhor that participation-point, awarded a point for losing. F’n stupid.
Jack Campbell should absolutely get the start tomorrow night.
Ackbar, you had an all-time set up for IT’S A TRAP, shame on you
Kane on ice for practice today.
Good off day poll question. If you had to take a one year version of each player to win a Stanley cup series who would you choose? Mark Messier or Eric Lindros. You can choose any year you want. Would you take the 95-96 Lindros with 115 points or maybe 89-90 129 point Messier for example?
91-92 Lemieux
15 Playoff GP – 16 G 18 A 34 PTS
Pretty much unstoppable
Yes he was. Who would you choose between Messier and Lindros.
30yrs later a one legged Draisaitl looked eerily similar.
If you’re going off the board, why not Gretzky 84/85?
In 18 playoff GP – 17 G 30 A 47 PTS (35 EVP) – definitely unstoppable.
2021-22 McDavid
16 Playoff GP – 10G 23A 33 PTS
Pretty much unstoppable
I would take the 1984 Conn Smythe winning Messier version. My favourite Messier version of all time. Scored nothing but big goals and elbowed everything in site like a super sonic freight train.
In today’s league, Moose would have a hard time adapting to the 2-ref system and an all-out league opposition to elbows to the head. I don’t believe he’d adapt as quickly as Lindros, who was a giant among men, with hands (pre-Scott Stevens).
Moose, no question. He knew what it took to win and could be downright nasty.
Lindros was the more gifted player, but Messier was probably more clutch/driven and still pretty damn talented. Despite the 115 points in the 95/96 regular season, Lindros scored 12 points in 12 games as the team went out in the 2nd round to an inferior but gritty Panthers team in only their 3rd season. He had his best playoff the next season, getting 26 points in 19 games to get the Flyers to the the finals against Detroit, but he got 3 points in the 4 game sweep and was -5. As Captain, he was unable to lead Team Canada to a medal at the -98 Olympics. Hardly his fault alone (idiot Crawford!), but it is a factor in his legacy and perception. Injuries deprived Lindros and the hockey world of him for much of his prime. He’d already been injured and concussed previously but had just turned 27 when Stevens crusehed him and permanently changed his career trajectory.
I’d lean Messier.
Best Lindross a Beast, a great who could have been legendary.
Mess. Moose.
Mark Messier, pretty much any year between 1983-1994.
In the greatest players series at the Athletic, on Messier Peplinski said he and Otto thought Messier was on a different level than the other power forwards. And basically most players
There was the speed, strength, high skill, and of course the mean. To paraphrase ”I realized later he was on a mission, I was playing a game”
Three years ago I got a new D partner on my Wednesday night pick up team. He was a really good player (far superior to me) and I could tell he played pro but I never bothered to ask him about his playing career. His name is Rob Starke and we call him king of the North for his name (game of thrones) and his domination of the D zone lol. He knew I was a huge Oilers fan from the way I talked about them in the dressing room. One day last year he says to me “My buddy Woody is coaching your team now”. As it turns out Rob played with Woodcroft and Colin Chaulk in Missouri of all places. He laughed and said the last time he saw Woodcroft and Chaulk they were having a beer at the end of the season and Jay was talking about maybe taking a video coach job in Detroit. They would all go their separate ways and Rob would become an accountant after a few more years of pro hockey. He has good things to say about Woodcroft and Colin Chaulk. He said even 20 years ago those two were very tight.
That’s awesome. Adult leagues are the best. I would tell the house league kids i coached “school first that way you can get a good job and always be able to afford hockey. it’s a lifetime thing”.
Looks like this guy. Had no idea Woodcroft and Chaulk went that far back. Very cool!
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/35036/robert-starke
Hopefully for Rob’s sake there is no one in the league named Frey.
Dino who?
I’m still baffled by the desire to trade for Karlsson. This is the best season of his career and you’re trading for him at peak value. He will never be this good ever again. And we don’t need the offence. And he’s signed for four more years. Even at half his cap, you’re still paying almost $6 mill.
This X 1000000000000
Why is Karlsson scoring so much? Probably because the Sharks know two things.
First, they have every incentive to maximize Karlsson’s offensive production: better trade value.
Second, they have every incentive to minimize Karlsson’s defensive abilities: lose more games, better chance at Bedard.
The Sharks’ incentives are the opposite of a team seeking Stanley.
Karlsson has one of the worst contracts in the entire league.
This talk reminds me a little bit of the talk about trading for Carey Price after the Habs’ 2021 run to the Cup Final.
The Sharks are going to trade him to the Chargers first, then they’re going to move most his cap hit to a signing bonus and push the pay down the road, then trade him back to San Jose. At that point Grier will ship him to Edmonton.
NHL coaches and players don’t play to lose. Management may make personnel decisions/moves that will limit their team’s chances but they don’t tell coaches to game plan to lose. The Shark’s outscoring the opposition 65-53 at 5 on 5 with Karlsson on the doesn’t look like look like a deployment strategy that leads to losing. Not having the personnel able to prevent a butt kicking when he is off the ice does.
Also, this team absolutely doesn’t need a rover. It needs a guy who’s solid in his own zone and makes that pass like a beauty. A Weber or Pronger type, not an Ozolinsh.
Not sure you can say it is any better than any of these times in his career:
11/12 – Norris trophy – 78 points (47% higher than 2nd place in points) League average scoring 15% lower than today.
14/15 – Norris trophy – 66 points to lead defensemen -same avg scoring as 11/12
15-16 – 2nd in Norris – 82 points to lead defensemen – same avg scoring as 11/12
16/17 – Lead his team and all NHL defensemen in playoff scoring with 19 points in 17 games. His efforts, playing with injured feet, almost got his decidedly average Ottawa team into the Stanley Cup playoffs. He received an unheard of Conn Smythe vote despite not playing in the finals.
And he is not all offense – he is puck control. With him on the ice 5 on 5, San Jose is 65GF / 53GA and with him off the ice, the team is 42GF / 75GA. And other than this season, he has been a regular on the PK for most of his career, with mostly good results.
Erik Karlsson is almost 33 and signed till he is 37. I’d put Karlsson somewhere between Niedermayer and Lidstrom. First ballot hall of famers play well for a long time if they stay healthy. Niedermayer got Norris votes till he was almost 36 and won the Conn Smythe at almost 34 years of age and was 36 helping team Canada win the Olympic Gold in 2010. I don’t expect him to be Lidstrom, who won 5 Norris trophies between the ages of 32-40, and stayed in the top 6 in voting up every season up till his retirement just before he turned 42.
Again when healthy, Karlsson is still one of the best defenseman in the NHL. At a $6 to $7 million cap hit, he will be worth it for several seasons. My arguments against getting him though are the bet that he will stay healthy for large chunks of his contract and the cost to acquire him with at the reduced cap hit. Holland loves his old hall of fame defenseman (Lidstrom, Chelios, Murphy, Keith) and it served him well, but I can’t see him being able to make it work for Karlsson in terms of the players and futures he’d have to send out.
I have no doubt he’s an excellent player, but he’s 32 years old with a lot of miles. And I just don’t see the need. We’ve got the best PP in the league. He might make it marginally better. We’ve got a meh PK and I don’t think he makes that much better either.
He is the best 5v5 player in the entire league right now. He’s outscoring McDavid…and he’s a defenseman. Let that sink in.
Erik Karlsson has played 280, and Tyson Barrie has played 363 NHL games over the past 5 seasons. EK is 1 year older than Tyson Barrie and has exactly 2x as many points. San Jose has 1 20+ goal scorer on their team, while Edmonton has 4.
As we all know, Tyson Barrie is a highly skilled NHL player, but Karlsson is at another level. I think Karlsson in Edmonton would be (at least) a PPG player in Edmonton over the remainder of his contract.
It is unlikely that #65 lands in e-town, but this is fun to think about, logistics aside.
He’s better than Makar right now. Who is on a far better team. What would we pay for Makar?
If you could know he’d stay healthy it’s a no brainer. You can’t add elite players often, which he is, and especially D. Look what CFP did for the team, and the next team
We’re talking Gretzky Kurri Coffey type stuff here. The players and picks lost will never contribute as much or make as much of a difference to winning cups
Trade for Meier
Then trade him in the summer for the same package you traded away
I’d rather inquire about Josh Anderson with 50% retained.
50% retained for a player that shows up 20% of the time…..
As OP mentioned, Anderson is often injured. I recall you discussing availability as a skill when giving an overview of the impact of one Taylor Hall.
What’s the difference between the two, in this case, if you don’t mind me asking?
Anderson has three pretty injury free seasons now after his bout with injuries.
Still only shows up 20% of the time…..
What a rookie season by Young Benson.
He’s still my dark horse for Fernando Pisano of 2023…
Speaking of which, is he still injured?
He’s back playing, definitely played one game, maybe more. I don’t have time to check hah. Played on the “fourth line” line with other tweeners.
Yup, first game back since December 30 was easier this week – on a line with McKegg and Bailey.
The famous line about the Oilers being the only team to still own their last 10 first rounders? Everyone since Jesse should be available to go get a difference maker like Karlsson or Meier.
Broberg is a nice piece but doesn’t appear to have much offense. Best case is a defensive stopper. I’d keep him for sure but he’s not untouchable. His upside is Slavin but there are a dozen other guys like Gavrikov that are along that spectrum of rangy, non-physical shot suppressors. This is not irreplaceable.
Bouchard is completely different but similar. There doesn’t appear to be a to pairing guy here even if the pucks skills are tantalizing. There’s a lot of Justin Schultz in his game. I’m not sure that player type will last long in this rough and tumble market. Again, tremendous value in this player but not untouchable.
Holloway leads the rest. Again there’s lots to like and he’s a real athlete but along the spectrum that ends in Chris Kreider there are dozens Dennis Gurianov’s that do most things well but don’t turn it into numbers.
XB is a skilled winger, and one that isn’t kicking the jams out compared to his peers. This is replaceable.
Schaefer is a Patrick Maroon type. If you squint you can see him scoring 30 next to 97 but cmon…that isn’t a likely outcome.
It’s go time.
I generally agree, but the last month has made me consider Broberg not quite untouchable, but only moveable in very limited circumstances. If he can be a contributor, even as 3rd pairing defenceman, in this year’s playoffs at his cap hit, I think you have to keep him around.
The OIlers have the best goal share when Broberg is on the ice. How is that not driving the offense. There are very few McDavid minutes. So Broberg is tilting the ice in the soft minutes in the Oilers favour.
The first D in recent history to tilt the soft minutes in the Oilers favour.
Broberg pretty much is a sure #3 all-tool D with remaining upside potential to a legit #1. He is the only D in the organization with legit #1 potential. A surefire #3 with upside potential in year 2 of an ELC is IMHO an untouchable asset.
I’d be willing to do Karlsson (33-50% retention) for Bouchard, Barrie, and the 2013 1st. But I am also content going with Broberg Bouchard as a pair if a favourable Karlsson deal is not there.
Broberg and Holloway are untouchables. They can are are helping this year and both have a lot of upside potential.
I’m a Broberg fan and don’t want him moved in any trade that isn’t a block-buster and no-brainer but this, again, over-rates Broberg’s performance.
You know who else had sparkling numbers in the 3rd pairing – Matt Benning – and that was with tougher minutes than Broberg’s.
The second single-sentence paragraph above is simply not true.
Broberg is killing it these days but lets be real with his 13.3% against elites and over 47% against gritensity deployment, right?
Pure Gold.
Do you watch the games? Benning was at the limit of his physical abilities. There was no upside potential.
He made a career as a journeyman undersized spunky 3rd pairing D, making the most of what he had.
Benning played “tougher” 3rd pairing minutes than Broberg has and had very good results – apparently “tilting the ice” given the results, right?
I didn’t say anything about future performance or ceiling – was simply posting about what he’s done and responding to the point that he’s tilted the ice like we’ve never seen before in the 3rd pairing. We’ve seen it, in tougher minutes.
Broberg is 21 years old and doesn’t turn 22 until the summer. He produced slightly more offence that Klefbom in their draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 years in the SHL and markedly more in their draft plus 3 in the AHL.
We don’t know where his game will go but I wouldn’t shut the door on a 21 year old rookie not being able to provide some offence over the course of his career.
I imagine Captain Jack gets the start against Chi-Town or I hope he does. It’ll be interesting how Woody divvy out the starts after the all-star break. Does he alternate to start or does he go with one until he loses or wins the net.
I would imagine the plan was to start Campbell in this game and Skinner certainly didn’t play well enough on Wed to change that plan with two questionable goals (lots of solid to plus saves as well).
I would think the back half of the season will have the goalies deployed by merit and who is playing better with neither goalie sitting for longer than a few games and likely a near split by the end.
Right D deployment
PP:
Barrie
Bouchard
PK:
Ceci
Desharnais
Bouchard
Trailing:
Barrie
Bouchard
Ceci
Vinny
Leading:
Ceci
Vinny
Bouchard
Barrie
Yesterday OP suggested Kemp as a throw in for a trade. As many here know, I know Phil Kemp personally and wanted us to draft him ahead of his draft. We have developed him and the story always was great defensively, not a drop of offense. Well now it looks like he is learning that a bit as well. Before we throw him in on a trade, I would like to see him get a few NHL games and see how he does. I believe he has good hockey IQ, that plus his defensive game intrigues me.
He can defend, and the Oilers are not strong at RHD in this area. That’s a big advantage. He will be waiver eligible in the fall, and there are people in front of him.
Coming from Greenwich CT, he is well known by the Ranger organization. If he goes on waivers, I am pretty sure they would pick him up.
Oh, and the Canadiens coach will know him as well.
If they pick him up, they need to keep him on their NHL roster or but him back on waivers…… They would be more apt to trade for him after clearing waivers (similar to a Kostin/Samourkov type transaction).
I watched a bit of Kemp when he was in college, at the World Juniors and, of course, in the AHL. I’ve always stated that I think he has a good offensive IQ, a good shot and an under-rated transition pass.
I included him (or equivalent) in a trade as a B-prospect as part of deal to rent a 2nd pairing d-man for a playoff run.
I like Phil Kemp – he seems like a great leader as well but if we are being honest he is a B-prospect at best. I’m not looking to get rid of him and I’m fine with him even getting another NHL contract but if we aren’t willing to trade a soon to be 24-year old B prospect with slow boots…….
Bakersfield is third last in Goals For
Their special teams are a mess, but even strength they are good.
Admittedly I am obsessed with what Erik Karlsson would look like on this roster for the next several seasons. I look forward to seeing if he gets a lot of time next weekend with 97 & 29 as a sort of trial run for himself, lol.
The acquisition cost would be dear and they would have to include a 3rd team. They would have to send salary away as well, so that would be at least 3 contracts, I would think. If that were the case, they would have to bring 3 contracts back. I wonder if SJ could throw in Brandon Coe, Matvey Petrov’s partner in crime from North Bay. Just a thought.
I also wonder about Provorov…I have moved off of Ekholm as a target, too expensive and I’ve been keeping a close eye on his play and his lack of mobility really concerns me.
Back to Karlsson, I reviewed the tape from his game vs Edmonton. Almost all of his shifts were vs 97 or 29. When he thwarted a 97 short-handed 1 on 1, CMD had been on the ice for about 20 seconds and 65 had been out there for 1:53. Incredibly impressive.
During that game EK snuffed out Drai along the boards, it was impressive to see him use his smaller frame to staple the bigger player who had some momentum into the boards like that, an area of strength for the German.
Karlsson is a lot of a rover, similar in that way to Nurse, but on the defensive side he challenges players with his speed and cuts them off as they approach his blueline. This results in quite a lot of turnovers (dump ins or turnovers), it was impressive to see how effectively he defended. He is a much better defender than I had thought. I think he could impart a lot of wisdom to our group in this way.
The elite piece of his game is how great he is a getting the puck to his forwards, very impressive to watch. His IQ is off the charts. In that game he only took one hit, from JP, who shrugged off the Megna screen to lay into EK.
C’mon Rosie, do your old team a solid 😀
I dont think many teams be too interested in 3rd party a contract with thst many years remaining.
Hopefully Bourgault pops up to that .65 ppg range. Seems to be better long term results for players in that range. The .5 ppg range is not great.
I look at that list and also not McLeod didn’t post much offense BUT is probably the best skater of the bunch. How is Bourgault’s skating?
This version of the Condors are likely the poorest AHL team the organization has seen in over ten years. They don’t have a solid group of veterans, especially on the backend like they have had recently. The early absence of Malone, the poor offensive results by McKegg (who was traded by TML to Florida for Hyman) and a coach still finding his way at this level have all been a huge part of this season.
Injuries and call-ups have also been huge, especially at the backend. It’s too bad Gildon hasn’t picked up from where left off 2 seasons ago, I had very high hopes for him. Kaldis has always been a concern for me on this roster, but he has no shelter, his deployment is not his fault.
It is great to see the kids with some growth and I hope there is an opportunity for Philp to gets some NHL reps this season, I agree with LT.
It does raise an interesting question re what is the correct balance between veterans and kids? Ice time?
We have long stated that the NHL is not a development league therefore kids must be sheltered and patiently groomed.
On the other hand, the AHL is a development league but an extremely competitive one. The kids still need shelter, mentorship, role models and playing time.
In some ways, it is much harder to run a successful AHL program given all the moving parts and the need to give the kids some air while building confidence/skills/habits.
I think Cracknell moving on has had a huge negative impact. He plays for Tucson now and is still playing well (his season totals would be #2 in scoring in Bakersfield).
Cracknell and Marody along with Malone and Hamblin only being there for like half the season, if that.