How many players chosen outside the first round spend five or more years playing a feature role on a skill line? How many spend five years on a skill line full stop? Damned scouts know what they’re doing after all. Hey, question: What happens when your farm system runs out of first-round picks? I think the answer might be Raphael Lavoie.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers ride high-flying offence to strong January finish
- DNB: Are the Oilers actually good again or are they simply benefitting from an easy schedule?
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers getting enough out of their AHL prospect pipeline?
- DNB: Oilers give a third-string university goalie the experience of his lifetime
- Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time
- DNB: Oilers trade target: Scouting Blue Jackets defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- New DNB: Oilers’ Zach Hyman subscriber Q&A
- Lowetide: The 5 biggest reasons for Edmonton Oilers’ recent turnaround
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ 2022 NHL Draft class gains momentum
- DNB: What I’m hearing on Oilers’ trade deadline plans
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Vincent Desharnais an NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Unusual Nugent-Hopkins line gives Oilers coaching staff options
- DNB: The Oilers scratching Jesse Puljujarvi shows it’s time for them to part ways
- DNB: Oilers must act at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers midseason review of 2022-23 reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ December sleep walk a touch of deja vu
- Lowetide: Bakersfield Condors’ 2022-23 season review to date
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
ACTIVE PROSPECTS AND THEIR NHLE
- W Matvey Petrov, North Bay (OHL). NHLE: 38.3.
- W Maxim Berezkin, Lokomotiv (KHL) NHLE: 29.8.
- LW Tyler Benson, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 29.2.
- RW Raphael Lavoie, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 29.2.
- LW Reid Schaefer, Seattle (WHL). NHLE: 26.4.
- LC James Hamblin, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 22.8.
- RW Xavier Bourgault, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 20.4
- RW Tyler Tullio, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 19.9.
- RD Mike Kesselring, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 18.9.
- RW Jake Chiasson, Saskatoon (WHL). NHLE: 18.3.
- RD Max Wanner, Moose Jaw Warrioirs (WHL). NHLE: 18.1.
- LW Carter Savoie, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 13.3.
- LD Markus Niemelainen, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 13.3.
- RD Phil Kemp, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 11.7.
- RC Noah Philp, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 11.2.
- LD Nikita Yevseyev, Ak Bars Kazan (KHL). NHLE: 9.1.
- LD Luca Munzenberger, Vermond (H-East). NHLE: 7.7.
- RD Vincent Desharnais, Bakersfield (AHL). NHLE: 6.1.
I’m interested in Lavoie (age 22) far more than Tyler Benson (age 24) even though Benson has played 38 big-league games and that might be 38 more than Lavoie plays in the NHL.
I’m also certain that the smart bet to play more games than anyone else on this list are the first-round picks (Xavier Bourgault and Reid Schaefer). They are tracking good to great, and they will get more chances than the depth picks. Same as it ever was.
The thing about Lavoie is this: He is spiking during the season, so doesn’t resemble Kyle Brodziak (who took off in training camp 2007), who we discussed in relation to Lavoie just the other day. So, among Oilers prospects who were drafted outside the first round, who showed great progress during their AHL career and then went on to have success? Using this century as our base, here’s your answer.
Anyone look similar to Lavoie? In terms of size, J-F Jacques is in the range, but Lavoie’s style isn’t as physical. I will say he has been aggressive and has at times bullied opponents out of the way during the recent run. Great arrows. Jarret Stoll was a great shooter, that’s something Lavoie has in his arsenal. I don’t think any of these men is a good match for Lavoie, to be honest. I will say that his current spike is putting him in some nice year-3 AHL company among this group of former Oilers prospects. Lavoie was double shifted, on merit, last night after Carter Savoie was hurt.
Q&A
- Should they call him up? I don’t think so, let him dominate and post a great season.
- Could they trade him? Maybe, but the picks are going to be the most appealing asset. I don’t think he’s a throw-in or a guy you deal to get comfortable with your numbers on the 50-man. This spike feels real.
- When could he make the team? Next fall he’ll be waiver eligible. So then.
- Do you really think he can make the NHL? I think he can. This spike isn’t a fluke. He’s done this kind of thing before, but the aggression and bullying for the puck are new. He’s kind of prowling around the puck in these last days. Someone lit a fire under his ass, or maybe he did it all by his lonesome. This is a dominant run. This is announcing presence with authority.
- Whose job could he take? Right-wing is going to have some changes over the summer, Jesse Puljujarvi is unlikely to return. The team will run Zach Hyman as No. 1 RW, maybe Kailer Yamamoto is the No. 2 RW but injuries are an issue. I think Edmonton acquires a RW this summer to push Yamamoto, but Lavoie can make the team, too. The situation is better than one might expect for Lavoie and Xavier Bourgault.
- Will he pass Bourgault? I think Bourgault passes Lavoie, but it’s uncertain when that happens. Bourgault hasn’t delivered enough to put his stamp on a roster spot this fall, but he could score 20 in the AHL at 20 and that’s an impressive number.
- Are you going to write about Lavoie every day of the break? No, but this is a fairly rare happening. A player like Lavoie had to have management wondering about him over these last months. He came back from Europe and reasonable expectations were a strong showing in the AHL. He’s been hot at times, but this hits a little different.
- Can he help the Oilers this season? Edmonton’s current needs are known, he doesn’t fill them so injury would be his opportunity.
- What were his issues entering pro? In May of 2021, I wrote “For Lavoie, the key will be continuing to post strong AHL scoring numbers while also improving in coverage and other areas that need fine-tuning. With the Condors, Lavoie spends a little time each shift in coast mode. Coach Jay Woodcroft and his staff have done an excellent job of ironing out habits picked up in junior hockey, and that tendency is likely on the list.” Getting that ‘coast mode’ ironed out took a little time, but it’s gone. The breaking news about this player: the bite he’s bringing now hasn’t been here before that I recall.
- Is it Colin Chaulk who gets credit? I think credit always goes to the player, but Chaulk is the man overseeing the youths currently and this is new. So, yes.
- Tell me in your folksy, never really get to the point way what’s happened here. Many years ago, I asked John Short why Tom Poti was struggling to play defense in the NHL. He said something like ‘he’s never had to play defense, in high school and college, Poti would just go get the puck from lesser players because he could’ and it’s always stayed with me as a description of a player who has to learn certain things once turning pro. Poti had a fine career, but there was a raw feel to his defensive game. Lavoie’s AHL season comes at the end of his entry deal, and he’s doing what Poti did as an amateur in a very good pro league. So he’s kind of like Poti, and that’s notable.
- Wait, you’re saying Lavoie is an impact pro? Right now, yes. His numbers over the last 15 games, since Christmas: 8-9-17, 53 shots on goal. He’s a bull in a china shop.
- Will he score 20 goals in the AHL this season? I think he can. He is at 11 goals over 30 games now, and there are 31 games to go this season. In his most recent 82 AHL regular-season games, Lavoie has scored 24 goals.
- Why are you so strong on him now? His current performance is a huge spike and appears to be repeatable. Remember, he had a knee injury last season that delayed the start of this season for the winger. I faded him in the December Top 20 prospects, writing “Lavoie can be judged a long shot, but the organization is correct in not giving up on him. If he can cobble together a few hot streaks this season, Lavoie will have a chance.” He’s cobbled like a demon shoemaker. Hard not to notice.
- Who could he replace this season? I think the Oilers will wait for the fall on Lavoie. However, if he got a look with (say) Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod things could be interesting. He has good speed, and the ‘coast mode’ isn’t there based on current events, so he appears to have unlocked the door. Now it’s a matter of when there’s a knock knock knock on Wood(croft)’s part.
- Who could he replace this season? If Kailer Yamamoto doesn’t get activated during the regular season, and the Oilers need an inexpensive winger, Lavoie could be an option.
- Who on that NHLE list would you bet on to play 200 NHL games? Bourgault, Schaefer.
- Can I ask you an unrelated question? Sure.
- You know, I come to this blog every day, and often you write about things that don’t interest me. Why do you do that? What’s the appeal? Is it because you’re a dink? No, it’s because I write about the things that interest me.
- You should write what I want to read. Otherwise I won’t come here. You don’t own me, you rat fink! This year (2023) is the 20th anniversary of this blog. We’ve lost many posters, dear friends and loved ones in those 20 years. Not one has been held against their will. I write what interests me, but you have all the power. The world is your oyster.
- What the hell does that mean? It means that if you feel you’re wasting your time here, scoot, scedaddle. Out, out damn spot!
- What the hell does that mean? It means you are welcome here, but only if you enjoy it. There’s enough misery and pain in the world, my hope is that Lowetide.ca is a welcome destination. If it isn’t, then we can be friends and it won’t change my view of you. It’s okay to outgrow things, outgrow people. Happens all the time.
- Who are you mad at? Good lord, no one. I’m saying that if you enjoy your visits, then you are welcome. If it’s a drag, then try something else. Maybe hot yoga, people are always telling me about their fantastic hot yoga experiences.
- Really? No.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy day with terrific guests, 10-2 on TSN 1260. We’ll talk with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey, Chris Johnston and Travis Yost from TSN and go heavy on NFL news when we aren’t talking Oilers and NHL trade deadline. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Keep it rolling, Mitchell!
I know noone knows me and I don’t say much of use other then waving my Oiler colors to a fault, but this place on the internet is one of my favorite places in the world. I’ve been battling heart issues and been in and out of the Nanaimo hospital far too much, alot of days and time is spent in a bit of confusion and grasping for sanity. I just wanted to say I really love coming here and digesting all the sweet breakdowns everyone is constantly partaking in. Thank you, being able to forget for a bit about life and dive into reading things about the Oilers is helpful in ways I can’t truly describe.
Please keep it up all.
Wishing you peace and a speedy recovery.
Thanks for sharing, DL. Best wishes to you.
Thinking of you, DL. I’m so sorry to hear about your situation, and glad you find comfort here. We’ll all be sending good thoughts and thinking of you.
Good thoughts to you fellow Islander.
Lavoie
Since the argument with Chaulk and his fight with Cole Schwindt (same game) (where he did very well btw –> https://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/n266531
10 games – 5 goals – 13 points
only one game where he didn’t register a point
In the 20 games prior – 6 goals – 9 points
The All Star Break has officially begun and it’s time to talk about Connor McDavid.
I’ve been asked, and I’ve wondered to myself on occasion, why I stay up late and watch Oiler games into the nether hours when I’ve missed the game, even if I already know the score.
The answer is, this is a very special season. History in the making, right before our very eyes.
Connor McDavid has 92 points in 50 games. He’s on pace for 151, a level of play unseen this millennium, this generation, this era. Lemieux was the last man to put up more, doing it in the distant days of 1995-96.
Goals are on pace to surpass Ovechkin’s 65, from 15 years ago.
And he has a history of finishing stronger than he starts.
The accolades have been pouring in from other players, many wondering why more aren’t talking about this incredible season.
Barclay Goodrow: “If he was that dominant in the NFL, NBA or MLB, he’d be talked about way more. I don’t think there’s another player in the four major sports leagues as dominant.”
Roman Josi: “There’s really no words for what he’s doing. Like, it’s crazy. He should get a lot more credit for what he’s doing. But because he’s so good, I guess he doesn’t.”
The players know. They know they’re seeing something special. We need to treasure this season. Because seasons like this don’t come along every day. It truly is a great time to be an Oiler fan. Historical, in fact.
Anyways, that’s my long-winded F.U. to the resident troll. 😉
It’s absolutely unbelievable what he’s doing. I had to go look at the record books one last time before Connor sets them all on fire…or at least rearranges them a bit.
Also, re “The All Star Break has officially begun…” – whoever approved this NHL schedule should be flogged.
Love you, Virginia. Hope you and yours are well.
Same here man. I really appreciate your (and others) comments here. We’re doing good down here in VA, just wanting the sun to come back! A few more weeks, I guess.
Okay…it’s now officially the All Star Break and time to talk about the Boston Bruins.
They are on pace to break the all time record of points in a season of 132 set by the 1977 Montreal Canadiens.
After thumping the Leafs 5-2 tonight, they have a goal differential of +81.
The next best team in the league is the Dallas Stars at +40
The Bruins are the highest scoring team in the league with 192 goals but, wait, there’s more.
They have only allowed 111 goals while the next best is the Rangers at 129.
The Bruins have a rather enviable home record having lost ONE game in regulation on the way to a 22-1-3 record.
Remarkably, the NJD have a better road record at 19-3-2.
History in the making here folks.
I had thought the Bruins would have aged out a long time ago.
Imagine if they hadn’t galaxy brained the 2015 NHL draft.
Bergeron at 37 years of age is good friends with Ponce De Leon.
He’s still the perfect hockey player.
His Evolving Wild percentiles this season.
Overall: 95th percentile
Offense: 88th percentile
Defense: 99th percentile
Summarizing!
Petrov continues to roll, ringing up 1+3 with 5 SOG and 1st star honours in a NB win. He now leads the OHL scoring race.
Chiasson scored and also had 5 SOG, but in a losing cause.
Wanner was held off the scoresheet in a loss.
Something interesting about Lavoie that I haven’t seen mentioned came from Colin Chaulk’s recent hit with Bob the other week.
Chaulk talked about how when he was an assistant in BAK one of his primary roles was to work the details with players, Lavoie being one of them. I wonder if now that CC is the head coach it hasn’t benefited Lavoie in some way. Be that familiarity, or rapport, or something else.
Perhaps that spat on the bench (or the next day when Ralph went into his office and told him point blank he’s not getting benched) lit a fire under Lavoie’s pants enough to do the things they’d communicated about for so long.
Chiasson’s turn to the light the lamp for his 12th of the season:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BladesHockey/status/1620987028560314368?cxt=HHwWgIDU7abH8_4sAAAA
Foegele Yamo and Jesse make a combined 8.5 million and have 13 Goals combined. Last year Alex Chaisson made 750,000 and scored 13 times for the loser Canucks. Remember when Chaisson made 2.1 million and Scored 22 Goals as a utility Forward yet was continuously pissed by the majority of folks in these parts.
You’re mis-remembering Chiasson’s time with the Oilers. He scored 22 while on a 650,000 contract signed just before the season started after a PTO. For his efforts, he was re-signed for $2.15 million for the next 2 seasons and had seasons of 11 and 9 goals.
Yamamoto scored 20 and 40 points last season getting paid a million, but this season has been hurt by concussion. Jesse was a .5 point per game guy as well. The salaries they are being paid is about what an arbitrator would have given, if not less.
Ok that’s right Chaisson signed for 2.1 million after Brett Connolly left Holland at the altar. Chaisson was plan B or maybe even plan C. I bet Connolly regrets that choice every waking hour. Anyhow I liked Chaisson he did the most he could with the talent he had. Yamamoto has 4 Goals in 31 games that might be acceptable in a beer league but I don’t think that stat flys over knowledgeable Oiler fans head.
Knowledgable Oilers fans would also realize that Yamamoto has 82 18-26-44 +7 boxcars in his last 82 games for the Oilers (this is including playoffs).
He has been, and probably will continue to be, a very reasonable use of 3M dollars.
Chiasson scored 22 goals in 2018-19 when he made $650k. Kenny then gave him 2 x $2.15 million. Chiasson then scored just 20 goals in the next two seasons (in 110 combined games).
Jinx
You missed part of the story.
Holland bought out Sekera, ostensibly with the intent of using the cap savings to sign Brett Connolly.
Connolly likely used Holland to leverage a better contract with the Florida Panthers.
Whether it was a panic reaction or to save face from buying out Sekera to open up cap for a player he didn’t actually sign, Holland then signed Chiasson to that unfortunate contract. I was highly critical of this contract the moment it was signed.
Post long time coming, LT I have been with you from the beginning, My first Oiler Game was while they were in the WHA. Then through the 80’s and 90’s and forward arm chair GMing. Getting the stats every Tuesday in the Edm. Journal, Hockey news buying the NHL record book and the Oiler media guide every year. Then I Found your blog and every day since. I have read it. Posting maybe 5 times over the years, But enjoying you and your commenters everyday.One of my proudest days was when I sent you a story suggestion and you wrote it.
You can see from my grammar why I don’t post. I would like to thank you and your follower’s. For a great blog, please keep up the great work.
You’re grammar is just fine and your experiences have been shared by many.
Would be very pleased to hear more from you.
Your grammar is great, your post is appreciated!
Dear Broiler: I’ve written professionally, and have always since I can remember had an extreme talent for the English written word; you are just about as good a communicator as anyone who has ever posted on the blog.
In other words there is nothing intrinsically wrong with your writing.
As an Original Alberta Oilers fan you would be a fantastic poster for Lowetide. Hopefully you will reconsider and help to improve this place further.
There are really no constraints here when it comes to grammar. Everything goes.
I must have spent 10 years reading about “puck pocession,” after all from a famous poster here.
Mark Stone of the VGK has a second back surgery…out for the season.
Calgary just got some kinda lucky.
One would assume Vegas will put his $9.5 million on LTIR.
Can they spend that much before the deadline?
If I’m figuring accurately, Vegas would have more than $26 million on LTIR.
They have a 1st and a 3rd this year and 2 half decent prospects. They’ll need to mortgage their entire future on Eichel and whoever they can manage to bring in. Stone was the heart and soul of the knights.
I wonder if they will just punt and try again next season.
It would seem, if Stone is having back surgery for the second time (he will be 31 in May) that he will just be put on LTIR for the remainder of his contract which has 4 more seasons to run.
He and Shea Weber could be goodwill ambassadors or something.
Vegas doesn’t punt, they gamble on 4th down.
I don’t like Vegas at all but I do like Mark Stone. Unfortunately, he won’t be the same kind of player going forward. I’d wager he’s not back next year either.
Calgary would be really smart to “keep their powder dry” this season. That roster can’t make a cup run. They should be trying to add picks and prospects without the appearance of folding.
Calgary are unfortunately(for themselves) stuck right where the Oilers were in the MacT era.
Hovering just inside/outside the playoffs, no real star players, pedantic head coach etc.
*runs*
I wonder if Stone’s career is toast. How many back surgeries can one come back from?
Vegas has rotten injury luck.
I’ve been to Vegas. It might be something in the water.
Petrov procures a secondary apple to open the scoring. Now 2-0 NB in period 1.
Not content with just an apple, he snipes from the top of the circle for a 3-0 lead and his 21st tally of the season:
https://mobile.twitter.com/OHLBattalion/status/1620953423830188034
And now another apple as NB leads 4-1 after 2.
Petrov is now tied for the OHL lead in points.
And another as the Battalion go up 5-1.
Petrov is now the outright OHL scoring leader with 69 points.
This sound like a story, did they nab a roster?
Rick Dhaliwal saying multiple teams interested in Brock Boeser but Vancouver will need to retain some salary.
Incredible
I think he could be a steal depending on the price.
I think so too…just needs a change of scenery.
Free with 40% retention
With 40% retention..there would be a bidding war.
Listening to Oilers Now from this aft and I heard Stauff say “When Yamamoto returns on February 12 against the Habs….”.
I know some are catastrophizing his current status (maybe out for the year or at least the regular season) and some thinking his career may not have much length to it, etc., etc., but I think the Oilers are planning on him being back to help the team down the stretch drive……
i heard that part too. I hope the kid’s noggin is okay and he’s ready to be the terrier we love. I would also like the oilers to trade him straight up for stauff’s boy Lafferty.
Frank Seravalli on trading Jesse.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/which-team-will-try-to-unlock-jesse-puljujarvis-potential-at-the-trade-deadline
There’s interesting table in this https://theathletic.com/4140368/2023/01/31/canucks-horvat-raty-beauvillier-nhl-trade-deadline/ setting out how much cap space each team has allocated to non-elite wingers (defined as any winger carrying a $2.5 million cap hit or higher who’s scoring at less than 0.8 points per game this season (a 65-point pace per 82 games)). Good teams tend to spend their money at centre and defence, not wing.
Four of the five teams with the most money locked up in non-elite wingers next season are in the Pacific division.
Vancouver will be conducting a winger clearance sale.
Boeser, Garland and Pearson (total cap hit about $14 million) all expected to depart.
Given all three are underperforming, overpaid and have term left I’m curious what the total retention will need to be to do it. $5 million? More?
I’m guessing Boeser is moveable with $1.5 million retained.
Garland should be moveable as is depending on the rest of the season. He has a great relationship with Tocchet and his game, in a very small sample size, has been much better since the coaching change.
Pearson only has one year left and may finish his career on LTIR but would also be an easy buyout if required.
This caused me to take a closer look.
Boeser 30 PTS
Garland 24PTS
Pearson 5PTS (only 14 GP)
Yamamoto 12PTS
Foegele 10 PTs
Puljujaarvi 10 PTS
So, in the realm of unproductive wingers, the Canucks trio has scored 59 points while the Oilers trio has managed only 32.
It would seem the Oilers have a bigger problem on their hands.
Canucks trio cap hit: 14.75M
Oilers trio cap hit: 8.85M
Also, none of the unproductive Oilers wingers are signed long term… soooo
You see where Boeser has scored 30 PTS and the Oiler trio has only scored 32, right?
Yes. And Boeser makes almost as much as the Oilers trio and is signed for two more seasons. Apples and oranges.
Ouch 😉
I can’t figure out why they never test rode Stalock. Alex seems to be a competent back-up Alex is sporting a 918 save percentage he’s 35 and he’s rocking it with save after big save on a poor team.
I also wish he got a look but he never played the 20-21 season and then even in 21-22 he struggled so I dont blame the team. Glad he is bouncing back though good for him
Skinner became waiver eligible. Stalock was not a viable to sign as a starter. He wasn’t going to sign as a #3. So he went looking for a landing spot as a UFA where he could get an NHL job.
Stalock’s season last year (after not playing at all the previous year, as noted) consisted of 3 stops:
Bakersfield (AHL) .862 SV% (5GP)
San Jose (AHL) .872 (12GP)
San Jose (NHL) .786 (1GP)
An Oilers test ride made little sense, and no team aside from the Blackhawks in their pursuit of Bedard who’d have signed him as their #2. Good for him though to have a bit of a renaissance at age 35.
Jack seems to have gotten his Glove hand back. Jack has above average Glove when he’s comfortable everything else falls in place. Who has had a better Glove in Oilerville going back in time? Khabibulin had a dynamite Glove when he was peaking in Tampa. Maybe Roloson how about Garon do we have to back to Curtis Joseph days.
I am “Fuhr”ious you forget Grant!
My ears are burning!
“GREAT Saaaaaavvvvvvvvvve Ranford!” Usually followed a glove save but how much of that was level of difficulty and how much was windmill showmanship is up for debate.
Still bitter over MacTavish’s handling of Garon in this season: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000412008.html
That should have been a playoff team. The Coach didn’t run Garon #1
Also – remember when Martin Gerber very briefly looked like a damn hero for the Oilers: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000412011.html
Bang on, both of those goalies never got the chance they deserved. At least by eye. They had a calming effect when they were in net, and considering the tire fire on defense that was quite the feat.
Somehow I forgot this.
But I did not forget how Martin Gerber shut out Team Canada at the 2006 Olympics. It’s one thing for a dozen-plus future HOFers to lose to Dominik Hasek in 1998, I guess, maybe. But Martin Gerber?!
Is Raphael Lavoie just a young Alex Chiasson? They were both drafted in the exact same spot, 2nd round, 38th overall, 10 years apart. They are almost identical in size, both 6’4″ and around 200 lbs. AHL numbers kinda similar…
Alex Chiasson played over 600 NHL names – that would be a success for a 2nd round pick I would say.
Yes, I’d take 600 games from Lavoie right now, no questions asked
Nice comparison, I think you have him fairly well circled, albeit Raph is chippier and moar physical (lately) and is a bit better skater. I would like to say Lavoie has a better shot, as well, but Chia’s son could really rip the biscuit, as well.
I would be a pleasant development to see #50 be a PK contributor, like #39 was.
I’ve often thought of Chiasson as a good comparable for Lavoie. Both big-bodied, hard shooting RW’s from Quebec.
Through their draft+3 & 4 AHL seasons:
Chiasson 66 GP 14-26-40
Lavoie 86 GP 24-24-48
Lavoie has more AHL +3 GP’s where he wasn’t as productive, but has been more productive in his Draft +4 as his goal-scoring prowess has come through.
I like him as a 4RW on the Oilers next fall.
— I’m curious LT : over these last 20 years who are some of the posters that you miss, or that you might think about from time time?
— A few come to mind for me: NYC Oil (who moved to Japan : (aka gentlemen backpacker), Snowman, Ricki, I’m blanking on his name but he lived all over told great stories I believe now in the prairies : he was in Cali back in the day had great varied life. Lived in Toronto as well. Verdad always made me laugh with his random mean hot robotic takes. Another sucky baby kid as well. As more names come back I will add them.
— Anyway curious to hear other names. Met up with a fellow LTer today Dearly Dan in our building Brookfield Place in Toronto. Fun to connect.
I can tell you George (Gentleman Backpacker) has moved back to Japan and when I last spoke to him was pursuing his photography career and seemed to be doing very well.
Ricki was battling very serious health issues last time he posted so perhaps that’s a clue.
— Melvin I believe was his nick?
Melvis
He said he was a roadie with Seals and Croft back in the day
He also mentioned health problems, I hope he’s OK
bookjie was always a favorite but fuck that guy
VOR (whispers that they were Ken Hitchcock)
+1
He actually left enough breadcrumbs to find out his name, having given the title of two books he claimed to have written. I won’t post out of respect for his privacy, but when I followed up on it there was a verified LinkedIn account with many of the academic credentials he’d talked about.
NYC Oil was the inspiration for my handle when I started off as Westchester Oil, before I became Victoria Oil.
Personally, I miss some of the number crunchers. Like Gmoney, Woodguy, Wheatnoil, Dellow, etc.
I’ve tried to keep a list. Many are on Twitter now.
https://lowetide.ca/lowetide-alumni-on-twitter/
If any one has some other links to add to this, let me know.
— that’s a good list !
— crazy coach hasn’t posted in awhile. Was VOR the professor guy? I really liked his insights.
— It’s my observation that the posters are less quant and/or less “side show” ie recipes booze music stories random musings. More hot-takey.
— there was a fabulous article in the Athletic about the founder of baseball reference from the Bay Area and the cast of characters that changed the way baseball was analyzed. Many of them poached by teams. A bunch of them in Astros organization. Made me think of the early days of this fine blog.
Steve Smith…or whatever his real name is.
New age darkness was always an interesting read.
Dense prose…or poetry…but pithy.
For me, I see the blog in two ways. First, the math folks.
In the beginning there were people who popped by and exchanged ideas and I learned a ton from them. Dellow, Cam Thomson, Dennis King, Tim Barnes, Murat Ates (he was Showerhead). That was a small group and I couldn’t really keep up but it was fun to be learning in real time. After that, Jon Willis and Bruce McCurdy weighed in and then Darcy McLeod and the Puck IQ boys. At some point, I became set on what I valued and haven’t really moved from the things I believe. So, there are innovators on the site (Ryan has been informing everyone on some nice things HW is doing, as an example).
As for the people who post, I’ve enjoyed all of them. Honestly. I don’t see the blog as being “mine” per se, and believe the best threads are often ones I chime in on rarely. I’m interested in the ideas that are presented and theories presented.
I often review old threads and comments from over the years, so don’t really feel anyone is gone or lost. I always hope to see folks return and let us know how they’re doing. It’s been 20 wonderful years for me, and I feel I know you and all the others. You have given me far more than I’ve passed along. It has been a wonderful experience.
Spector on ON: Rebuilding without goaltending as oiler fans know is a nightmare (paraphrased and summarized). If the Canucks trade Demko they’re extending their re-build to ten years.
Likely the reason why the Canuck GM, a former goalie, doesn’t have Demko on the block (according to Dreger).
It seems crazy….but they have this “decade of darkness” musk growing well past palatable levels, these days.
I look at thst defense and I scratch my head. Surely oilers proved cart before horse wingers for the win is doomed…but i mean might as well just toss the match.
They are pretty much in the decade of darkness now. The last time Vancouver meaningfully made the playoffs was 2014/15. The cancellation of the end of the 19/20 regular season is probably the only reason this won’t be the 8th season in a row that Vancouver wouldn’t have qualified for the post season.
In 19/20 when the league shut down, the Canucks were in 9th based on points, but 7th based on points percentage. But if the regular season had played out to its conclusion, the odd are the Canucks would have missed the post season. They started to slip in the standings after the New Year, then really took a tumble after Feb 1 going 7-9-2 in the last 18 games before the shut down and 2-3 in the 5 games before.
They are going the wrong way still though.
I love when your alter ego grinds you. Cuts heads off snake in advance.
The Bedard game in Calgary tonight at the Saddledome is sold out.
You’d think they’d be sick of guys named Connor carving up the home team
Not sure why… they’ll have plenty of opportunity to see him when he’s back in the WHL after the WJHC next year.
The first game against the Condors on the Sunday afternoon was also “sold out” but the entire upper bowl was not open (except for two sections they opened late – and were sprinkled with fans).
I presume its a similar set up so “sold out” should be taken in context.
I presume.
This one is a real sellout. 19,000+
Well, I presumed wrong.
Wow!
Prospectolity!
Not one, not two, but
fivethree NA prospects will be hockeying this eve.Petrov is still on the OHL podium, but now 3rd in points and three off the lead.
Out west, Chiasson and Wanner begin a new month continuing roadies.
North Bay (Petrov) @ 5 p.m.
Saskatoon (Chiasson) @ 6 p.m.
Moose Jaw (Wanner) @ 7 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Derwent time.
Better know a little Ukrainian if you’re headed to Derwent…
I know a little German. He’s sitting over there.
Verrrrry interesting, lol. Thought for sure you were going with this guy (one of my childhood faves):
One thing to note is that Lavoie was generally ranked as a late 1st round pick (around 22-25 I think) and he fell to fairly early in the 2nd round when there was a run on d-men. I posited at the time that Ken Holland had a good read on that draft, knowing there would be a run on d-men and that he’d be able to get a “1st round talent forward” with his second pick – part of the reason he went with the high potential d-man at 8th overall.
In any event, I know that LT and I disagree on this a bit but, for me, this is the 1st time Lavoie has had a sustained run like this as a pro. We know that he has had many 2-3 week heaters and almost always disappeared for seemingly months at a time.
This “heater” has been 20 games now and, while I believe he’s had one other offensive production run like this, this run seems completely different to me. The reason for that is his overall game.
Unlike previous heaters/runs, he is impacting the game from shift to shift and he’s doing it in substantial ways. He isn’t just relying on his plus shot to get scoring chances but he is absolutely lugging the puck and taking it hard to the net and even making passing plays off those rushes. Importantly, he has also shown massive progress in his 2-way play (in particular commitment and effort on the defensive zone boards) and in puck retrieval and battle in the offensive zone.
He is a big dude and he’s starting to use the size (and strength) and he is dominating shifts in the AHL.
I don’t think a recall this season is in the cards (and that’s totally fine) but he’s putting himself in the conversation for October (and, as of now, is in the conversation along the lines of Bourgault (and Tulio) for an earned roster spot out of camp).
Kudos to Lavoie for his work and the player he is becoming.
Also kudos to the coach, Colin Chaulk – many of us, including myself, didn’t like the usage early in the year, cutting ice time and benching but, if we are honest, its seems to have worked. Different players need different coaching tactics and perhaps Ralph needed the “tough love”.
He probably wouldn’t help the Oilers win this year as they can’t even find enough ice time for Holloway but 2 NHL games as a reward for playing well would be nice to set him up for his off season training.
I don’t disagree, in theory, but the roster and the cap, etc. could make it more difficult. Adding Lavoie to the roster adds his cap hit and will likely require a player down in his place, etc.
Not to mention the limit on non-emergency call-ups post deadline, etc.
Brady’s last season is reminiscent of Gretzky’s for me. The skills hadn’t diminished to the point where they were a shadow of their former greatness, but there was enough wear on the tires where it was clear the time had come. For both guys, the last season seemed more like work than dominance.
I watched Brady whenever I could and he missed a LOT of throws this season that he normally makes. I’ll always wonder how much the off field stuff affected his focus in 2022.
Gretzky. Jordan. Brady. It’s a short but terrific list.
Agreed. Yet Gretz retired and retired for good, exactly when he said he would (99 ’til ’99) – that gives him a little more esteem in my book, none of the ‘will he or won’t he?’ midlife crisis stuff of the other 2.
(and I’m not 100% convinced Brady is done)
Brady’s first retirement was driven more by Gisele than it was him. That’s why it didn’t take. In terms of the quality of his play, he was still at a very high level in 2021 so I could see why he thought he still had more in the tank. That’s also why I think he is truly done now. The one thing he can’t accept is mediocrity and that’s what another season would likely bring.
Jordan had/has a massive ego and an ownership stake in the Wizards. I think both were factors in him staying too long at the fair.
Gretz arguably played a year too long but his retirement was the classiest and it stuck.
The guys that go out on top are a rarity. Most have to see that they can no longer perform at the same level otherwise they go into retirement wondering, “What if?”
Btw Brady’s new broadcast contract with Fox will pay him more than his entire playing career, and his new lady is a complete bombshell. If that’s a “midlife crisis,” sign me up.
Yes, I think ‘old’ Tom will be alright!
I guess the 49ers are confident that Purdy’s elbow will heal – that seemed like a situation made for one last TB12 incarnation.
If the Niners had any interest in Brady, they woiuld’ve signed him last summer. They are sitting on 3 possible starters right now, one of which hasbasically a zero cap hit. No way would they sign an ancient QB that will require a loss somehere else on the roster to make the dollars work.
Agreed. The Raiders with McDaniels and wo Carr were the best fit imo. But that puts him too far from his kids on the east coast.
The arm strength is still there but the reflexes are a shade slower.
Father Time remains undefeated but man did Brady give him a helluva battle.
Vegas was my prognostication too. but now that Carr is a pro-bowler…. 😉
Who do you like in the SB?
Most pundits seem to be picking the Chiefs liking the proven Mahomes over the unproven Hurts. I’ve not seen Patrick good in SBs. Barely pulled it out against SF with a late bomb to Tyreek and lost handily to the Bucs.
I like the Eagles in a squeaker with their superior trench warfare being the difference.
Mahomes’s injury is the biggest story IMO. The fact the Eagles have yet to play a real game in the playoff as another. Question marks on both sides. Ask me later in the week…
I guess I missed the part where the Giants and 49ers weren’t real teams. The benefit of winning the top seed is you play one less game and start with the lowest seed.
This seems an insinuation that the Eagles win over the Niners wasn’t legit because Purdy was injured. That ignores the fact that the Eagles pass rush knocked Purdy out of the game and then they knocked out his replacement.
Purdy”s injury wasn’t non-contact or a fluke. San Fran didn’t protect their passers and they paid the price.
Wasn’t he still under contract with Tampa?
The last year was an extension.
Love your blog. First read every day. Please keep writing what interests you!!
Darren Dreger reported yesterday that the Canucks are “a little surprised” at all the trade speculation about Demko. Apparently the talk of his potential availability isn’t coming from the team.
Local reporters are hearing things.
https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/report-leaked-offer-from-kings-for-canucks-goalie-thatcher-demko
Nothing in there states Demko has been made available by Rutherford. Friedman also admitted he was sepculating. There is, of course, no need to rush on Demko, he can be traded in the off-season, if he is unhappy, when there is more cap space.
Also, as The Athletic’s beat reporter Stephen’s reported yesterday, $6M is seen as a large stumbling block for a goalie cap hit by LA and Blake. IE Gibson, Demko etc.
You can see why the cap hit would be an issue, with them already paying their goalies $11M.
And then there’s the thought that the Canucks are in the business of doing divisional rivals huge favours. Like giving them a starting goalie AND taking their own shitty starter back.
We are beyond ridiculous here.
Well the Canucks also got three first rounders back for Horvat. It seems we are consistently operating in that space now.
Any Demko trade to LA would have Quick on his expiring contract at $5.8 million coming back…easy.
Finally a trade that the Canucks would win
Well I never kept a comment past sunset
It always fixed a problem on the net
Never left the ol Al Gore happy
Always blew a second chance, oh no
I need a blog to keep me happy
I need a blog to keep me happy
LT, LT keep me happy
LT, LT keep me happy
Excellent content.
rat fink? Haven’t heard that in a long, long time 😀
Scoring summary in order from last night’s Condor game. Twas a bit of a scorefest. If you haven’t already, you can read OP’s goal reports in last night’s thread, they are excellent, or head to Bako’s Twiiter for some video highlights.
Benson (Bailey, Peters)
Kesselring (Malone, Peters)
Kesselring (Hamblin, Malone)
Bailey (Kemp, Benson)
Gildon (Tullio, Lavoie)
Bourgault (Malone, Kesselring)
Lavoie, (McKegg, Bourgault)
Pickard with the 32 save win.
Lavoie continues his tear. Bourgault gets the gorilla off his back and Kesselring with two goals that were definitely not seeing-eye floaters this time. Bailey keeps impacting games in a good way.
Three stars:
1st: Kesselring
2nd: Bailey
3rd: Lavoie
Kesselring’s first goal was an absolute laser over the glove, wasn’t it?
Lavoie just continued to use his size, strength and skill – in all zones – its wonderful.
Yamamoto can come off LTIR after the Feb 12 game versus the Habs… A Tabernac Sunday instead of Saturday. Plenty of daylight between then and the deadline to eval and decide on a move or two. Of course, with concussions, there’s always an outside risk he never plays again, but in all likelihood with the extended rest he will be good to go.
If he isn’t, we could very well see Lavoie taken out of the garage for a test drive or two before the deadline.
He can come back FOR the game against the Habs on the 12 AFTER the game on the 11th vs. the Send (I think that’s what you meant).
Even though we made it to the W.C Final last year I feel this team has the Goaltending to go further. Skinner has ramped up his intensity in the Playoffs going back to Junior Hockey. When it comes to Campbell I have really good vibe that he’s going to pour it on for the rest of the year and Playoffs.
I hope you are right and share your optimism. But I still think Mike Smith was more effective down the stretch and in the playoffs than either Oiler goalie this year (so far)
I liked Smith but only if he’s on the good guys team. Smith has the cockiness that makes his teammates rally for him. Anyhow age-body caught up to him against the Av’s. Smith couldn’t stop a beachball I was kinda surprised how effective we looked against a stacked Av’s team. The series could of easily of been tied 2-2 with Smith playing to his standards. If Smith would of Roli us past the Av’s and into the Final I don’t think he would of retired ( LTIR)
Smith battled through an ankle injury in the playoffs last season (and I believe all year long). He did yeoman’s work in the spring.
We cannot reasonably expect better tending than he gave this team in April.
In May he was both spectacularly solid and spectacularly leaky – I think we can hope for some more consistency in the pipes in the playoffs but we’ll see what happens.
Allan, you have the ONLY Oiler news and posts that are of interest to me now. I’ve been watching Lavoie out of curiosity ever since he was drafted. It happened about 3 weeks ago, Chaulk and Lavoie got into it on the bench. Raphael was benched for a bit, when he got back on the ice he got into a fight and has been playing ‘pissed off’ ever since. Chaulk must have lit a fire under him. Lavoie has the talent, size and hands to have a long NHL career IF he wants it. I’m curious to see if he keeps this new style of play consistently… if he does, he’ll be an Oiler soon enough. Thanks for the blog on him, I was stoked to read it! Keep up the fantastic work!!
If he’s still rolling and the timing fits, say up for Shore after the AS break or a black ace in the playoffs, a sniff of the carrot may do wonders for the fall.
Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but I gather was Shore brought up before the break so he could get an NHL paycheque for a couple weeks since this could well be his last year with the org. If so, another subtle but classy move by Old Dutch.
Shore was getting an NHL cheque this entire stint in Bako and counted against the cap. He, like most NHLers, likely had travel plans, so still a nice favour, but one you would expect an org to give a vet..
Maybe you mistyped as regards to Shore counting against the cap while down in the Bake.
Shore did count against the cap when he was down in Bakersfield – he was on a conditioning loan pursuant to Section 13.8 of the CBA and there is no cap relief for such a loan.
Question LT. If the Oil came knocking on your door to be a scout, would you chuck it all to go on the road and be a bird dog?
I saw Noel Acciari’s name mentioned yesterday. Does he bring anything the Oilers don’t already have? I couldn’t make out anything from the numbers I looked up.
RH Center who can win FOs at a better than 50% rate and PK. Oilers only have one player who can do this at this time and he’s old. Acciari also adds hitting and shot blocking, neither of which is a Ryan strength, and he’s an improvement on the dot. Oilers have been burned a lot of faceoffs this year.
Makes sense in that way. I just didn’t see anything that suggested he was keeping above water in possession (38.9 this year) or moving the needle much on offense (16 EV) so I was curious. Thanks
Full breakdown here:
https://lowetide.ca/2023/01/30/doing-the-splits-2/#comment-1186278
Oilers aren’t looking to add much in the way of offense. They’re looking to add guys who can also play without the puck, PK, win faceoffs, hold leads, and patrol the right side, if necessary. Some offense of course is requisite. Possession numbers always suck for players on bad teams. All four players discussed are underwater.
I’d like to see Lavoie get a few games this spring while Yamamoto is out. Just to give him a taste to see how hard he has to work.
Speaking of Yamamoto I’m really worried about him. LT always says he doesn’t know if his small body can handle a NHL career and he might be right. One more concussion this spring and he might be shut down for the year.
Is Yamamoto out this spring? I mean, he attended the Oilers last practice, in January, and he very well could be back as early as February 12.
Sure, he very well could deal with injuries and maybe his career will be cut short due to concussions – then again, the community tried to shut down the continuing careers of Chair and Kassian due to prior concussion issues – they continue to play in the NHL this season.
So entertaining! I don’t think I’ve seen the term “rat fink” in forty years… or more
When I hear rat fink I think Batfink, remember that guy??
And there was another guy who used to say “I go where you go, Hugo Ago-go” Ha!
Am I remembering that right?
Who can forget Batfink, having seen him so much in our youth!
Yes! And “My wings are like a shield of steel”!
“You cannot hurt me.”
While we’re talking about things you owe us, I demand the balance photo. This may not be the best team of the last 15 years but it has to be the most balanced. Outside of the dominance of Connor and Leon…
When you can no longer agree on where the holes on the team are (RW, 4C, LD, RD, PK forward, toughness) perhaps they aren’t really holes. Of course you can always upgrade almost any position and they probably need to, to really have a chance to win the cup, but there does not seem to be a single area of glaring need.
Like the analysis but personally, I can’t cherry pick the last dozen games. The numbers for the year don’t lie. PK needs to keep improving, Defense can’t leak chances against playoff teams and the goaltending needs to get above .900.
Agreed. I will believe this team is for real when they post GA per game that are top 8 in the league and team shows they can button down and win games 2-1 over a larger sample of games.
Behold! The balance photo!
https://www.pinterest.ca/pin/howell-conants-famous-water-picture-of-grace-taken-on-her-vacation-in-jamaica-1955–336081190915509668/
for some reason I always envisioned the balance photo being an old staple of the blog, the fair maiden donning her red top sporting the colors and logo of her alma mater
I envisioned it as a pyramid of cheerleaders, barely hanging on, about to teeter over, with Yamamoto on top, smiling, wearing his cheer outfit and giving just the right amount of weight for equilibrium.
Great pic! Now I see Jesse P, chasing a puppy along the beach, in his speedos, with his tongue out, and completely unaware that he is about to bump into cheerleader number 3, and unintentionally throw the whole unit out of balance, and sand will be going …everywhere.
Outstanding!
The balance photo never being posted is the new Nuge has never scored 60 points.
And today we have both myths smashed
Glaring need is Right Wing. Need someone that actually posts crooked numbers not just underlying.
With all of the Columbus scouting reports I wonder if we have any interest in Sean Kuraly . C/LW. BIG guy that will score 10-15 in the bottom 6. Plays tough , 2.5 for 2 more . Very fast skater , great forechecker and good pk guy .
I agree that he is a decent player for 4th line duty. However, he doesn’t fit our current forward need of RW/RHC. If the trade bait is JP, we would be desperately short on the right side. Really you would have to decide that he is better than Foegle and trade straight up. But he has an extra year at $2.5mill and the masses have already realized you can’t have 4th liners making that much money on this top heavy team…
always Love these question and answer sessions.
With Lavoie, I keep hearing this little voice. “So you’re telling me there’s a chance” .. Glad he has spiked and hope he can be an Oiler next fall. RW2 or RW3.
Came here for the Keith Richards. Love it when he sings!
I’m just here for the Exile on Main St. references.
I’m glad you write about the things that interest you. It lines up perfectly with the reasons I come here.
love the “growing years stories” on the farm in Saskatchewan, chores, then shooting horse apples in the yard….love them almost enough to move back to S`Toon.
Shout out to the AHL commentator guys squinting at the pronunciation sheets for Lavoie and Savoie.
Wonder if any teams that we are tied or rumoured to be in trades with are looking at Kesserling as a prospect throw in LT?
I think he has a real chance, and he’ll be inexpensive. I don’t think Kesslering, Kemp or Wanner are going to be dealt. Bunsen burner either, Oilers don’t have much blue in the pipeline.
I’ll take plus-sized, right-shot, late-round d-men for a thousand please Alex. Vince Desharnais is the leader of the pack, was drafted years ahead of any olf these dudes, & only now (& for now) has reached the top rung of the ladder.
I would think that Kesselring’s potential to the Oilers is much higher than his trade value at this time.
I’ve been saying for almost 3 years that he’s got a broad skill set – there is size/length, smarts and talent there – very raw on draft day but, if he was able to “put it together”, he’s got top 4 potential.
I see no reason to throw him in.
Kemp is the RSD that I would be OK moving in that type of situation.
Went to a hot yoga place here in LA once. It was carpeted. Just let that sink in. The carpet sure did.
Too funny. You could sell that line to a comedian and get a good asking price 🙂
Went to LA recently and while the advance buzz on California Girls was true, the most attractive (and nicest) lady I encountered was a lass who’d recently moved to La La Land from Sask. Who knows, maybe she’ll be the next transplant to make it in the movies.
“And the northern girls with the way they kiss, they keep their boyfriends warm at night.
I wish they all could be Canadian Girls!”
Now I have that tune in my head. The David Lee Roth version
Why not Bring Lavoie up for a cup of coffee if they trade Jessie and Yammy is still on the injury list. Maybe it would actually give him more fire in the belly to become a more consistent player in hopes he makes the show.
Na, there’s no rush. He’s doing well and has a history of consistency issues. Don’t want to mess with a good thing. Let him finish up strong if he can and go into training camp ready to go.
No one’s trading for Yamo who still has a another year of 3.1 million on the books. Holland should of packaged him up in the off-season.
Anthony Beauvillier is coming off a season of 9 goal and 34 points and has a grant total of 20 points this season – he is locked in at $4MM for next season and just got traded.
As far as bringing up Lavoie goes, I think he is right where he needs to be for his continued development. Its been 20 games, I think another 30 of the same would be the goal.