The Edmonton Oilers have chosen from the USHL and various feeder leagues twice in the past three drafts. Carter Savoie and Shane Lachance were drafted in later rounds, with both men spiking offensively in their post-draft seasons. Both men should be considered successful draft picks, with the understanding there’s miles to go.
Will the team drop by the USHL again? Does the Holland administration view the USHL as being worth a pick in 2023?
THE ATHLETIC!
New Lowetide: Why playoff experience for Oilers rookies is an important building block
Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
DNB: The Oilers are out of the playoffs and there’s plenty of blame to go around
Lowetide: Oilers prospect Matvey Petrov and his possible future
Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
DNB: Why Oilers’ Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combo is the ultimate luxury: ‘It’s magic’
Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
USHL PLAYERS IN THE 2023 NHL DRAFT
- RC Will Smith, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Terrific skills, great passer.
- RW Gabriel Perreault, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Smart offensive player, undersized.
- LC Oliver Moore, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Burner, skilled, fine passer.
- RW Ryan Leonard, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Good skater, great shot, agitator.
- RW Jayden Perron, Chicago Steel (USHL). Small and extremely talented offensive player.
- LW Danny Nelson, US Natl Development Team (USHL). PF with plus shot.
- RW Will Whitelaw, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). Fast, great hands, slick. Small.
- G Michael Hrabal, Omaha Lancers (USHL). He’s 6.06, could go in the first round.
- RW Ryan Conmy, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Huge spike during the season. October 2004.
- LW Beckett Hendrickson, US Natl Development Team (USHL). June 2005, size, skill.
- LD Andrew Strathmann, Tri-City (USHL). Puck mover, creative, some chaos.
- RD Aram Minnetian, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Great skater, nice range of skills.
- G Trey Augustine, US Natl Development Team (USHL). .928SP and 6.01, 179.
- RD Maxim Strbak, Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL). Mobile two-way D with size.
- LD Michael Hagens, Chicago Steel (USHL). Two-way D trending.
- RW Tanner Adams, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Skill winger, late spike.
- RW Will Vote, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Small and skilled.
- RW Ryan Fine, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Small but skilled.
- G Samuel Urban, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Strong resume, 6.01, 183.
- LD Paul Fischer, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Smart and steady.
- G Carsen Musser, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Huge goalie will get drafted. 6.04, 214 at 18.
The USHL has four names I think may go in the top 10, and the quality runs all the way to 20 (and probably beyond). This is a tough league for Edmonton, because American kids have a loophole and don’t have to sign with their drafting team. It would be fine to fade the league, but there’s so much damn talent! This isn’t “Los Angeles selects Gary Sargent from what league now?” anymore. This league is a monster.
Lowetide USHL draft 2022
LC Rutger McGroarty (USHL). Skill C, shooter, great passer.LD Lane Hutson (USHL). Small, dynamic offensive defenseman.LW Adam Ingram (USHL). Big winger with skill, quality passer.RD Seamus Casey (USHL). Mobile offensive defenseman.RD Ryan Chesley (USHL). Has the complete range, lacks top end offense.- RD Jacob Guévin (USHL). Offensive defenseman, fine skater.
RC Nicholas Moldenhauer (USHL). Range of skills , a little shy offensively.RW Cameron Lund (USHL). Big winger with plus skill.- LW Jeremy Wilmer (USHL). Pure skill, elusive with the puck on his stick.
LW Dylan James (USHL). Responsible two-way winger.LW Quinn Finley (USHL). Speedy winger, skilled but small.RD Sam Rinzel (USHL). Big, strong, late breaker. Lots of buzz.RC Ryan Greene (USHL). Creative center, two-way type.- RW Cruz Lucius (USHL). Skilled but not a big sample size.
LW Alex Bump (USHL). Scoring winger.
PROJECTED PICKS
- No. 25 overall (traded to Nashville in the Mattias Ekholm deal)
- No. 57 overall
- No. 89 overall (traded to Arizona in the Nick Bjugstad deal)
- No. 121 overall (traded to Philadelphia in the Derick Brassard transaction)
- No. 153 overall
- No. 185 overall
- No. 217 overall
MOCK
- No. 57 overall: RW Jayden Perron, Chicago Steel (USHL). Future replacement for Kailer Yamamoto, he’s skilled and productive. Big time offensive numbers this year, slowed in the second half but he’s a strong option. I have him No. 16 overall on my list, Craig Button (I’m using his list as the guide for the first 56 selections) has him No. 86. I think he’ll slide, but not that far. I’d take him at No 57 in a heartbeat.
- No. 153 overall: RW Felix Unger Sörum, Leksands (SHL). Pure skill winger who could be a massive draft steal if he continues to develop. I wrote about him here.
- No. 185 overall: RD Mazden Leslie, Vancouver Giants (WHL). He’s a wildly entertaining player with enough chaos to expect his coaches may plot against him on the bad nights. Edmonton has shown a willingness to run with some risk since the arrival of Tyler Wright, Leslie is worth a pick.
- No. 217 overall: LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Big winger with some power, good skater. He’s 20 now, I’ve had him in the second round three times, have talked to scouts and still don’t know why he hasn’t been chosen. A solid pro future awaits in my opinion.
ROLLING 125
- RC Connor Bedard, Regina Pats (WHL). NHLE 62. McDavid? 68. Not many better though.
- RC Will Smith, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Impact offense, future star.
- RW Colby Barlow, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). 6.01, 195. Speed, great shot, throwback type.
- RW Gabriel Perreault, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Incredible skill.
- LW Zachary Benson, Winnipeg Ice (WHL). 5.10, 160, possesses great hands and is highly creative.
- LC Oliver Moore, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Burner, skilled, fine passer.
- LW Andrew Cristall, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). 5’10, brilliant offense, skating a concern.
- LC Riley Heidt, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Strong skater, a little undersized, productive.
- RW Ryan Leonard, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Good skater, great shot, agitator.
- LW Quentin Musty, Subdury Wolves (OHL). PF with great numbers, speed. Playmaker.
- RC Braydon Yager, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Great skater, dangerous pivot who can score.
- RC Calum Ritchie, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Good skater with size and skill.
- RD Lukas Dragicevic, Tri-Cities Americans (WHL). Big, mobile, skilled.
- RC Nate Danielson, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). He can skate, good size and real skill.
- RW Jayden Perron, Chicago Steel (USHL). Small and extremely talented offensive player.
- RW Koehn Ziemmer, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Power forward with great numbers
- LC Samuel Honzek, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Big, talented winger.
- LW Danny Nelson, US Natl Development Team (USHL). PF with plus shot.
- LD Etienne Morin, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Smart puck mover, impressive outscoring.
- RW Ethan Gauthier, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Skilled, not as dynamic as names ahead of him.
- RW Mathieu Cataford, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Substantial offense.
- LC Kalan Lind, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Speed is his calling card.
- RW Will Whitelaw, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). Fast, great hands, slick. Small.
- RC Gracyn Sawchin, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Solid offensive prospect, good speed.
- RD Cam Allen, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). He’s a RH defenseman who can move the puck well.
- G Michael Hrabal, Omaha Lancers (USHL). He’s 6.06, could go in the first round.
- LD Luca Cagnoni, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Small, very skilled blue.
- RD Beau Akey, Barrie Colts (OHL). Two-way D with plus speed.
- LC Andrei Loshko, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Quick, creative, great passer.
- RW Yegor Sidorov, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Huge numbers, older prospect. Big shot.
- RD Oliver Bonk, London Knights (OHL). Smart two-way D who counts defending as a strength.
- RW Coulson Pitre, Flint Firebirds (OHL). PF prospect, impressive offense, good skater.
- RW Ryan Conmy, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Huge spike during the season. October 2004.
- RD Hunter Brzustewicz, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Modern player-type, has size.
- RW Connor Levis, Kamloops Blazers (WHL). Big forward, fine passer.
- LW Nick Lardis, Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL). Pure scorer, plus skater, spiked late.
- LW Beckett Hendrickson, US Natl Development Team (USHL). June 2005, size, skill.
- LC Carson Rehkopf, Kitchener Rangers (OHL). Pure scorer, he’s also a fine skater.
- LW Tyler Peddle, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL). Great shot, big risk-reward potential.
- LD Tanner Molendyk, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Solid two-way D, mobile.
- RW Cam Squires, Cape Breton Eagles (QMJHL). Throwback forward with skill.
- G Carson Bjarnson, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL). Huge (6.03, 186) and young (June 30, 2023).
- RD Andrew Gibson, Soo Greyhounds (OHL). Big (6.03, 197) two-way D brings toughness, some skill.
- LW Nico Myatovic, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Big winger skates well, net-front presence.
- LD Caden Price, Kelowna Rockets (WHL). Two-way D, average in size.
- LC Carey Terrance, Erie Otters (OHL). Great skater, two-way F, 30 goals.
- LD Andrew Strathmann, Tri-City (USHL). Puck mover, creative, some chaos.
- LC Markus Vidicek (QMJHL). Smart, skilled, undersized. Second-year eligible.
- RC Jaden Lipinski, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Big C, huge improvement year over year.
- RD Aram Minnetian, US Natl Development Team (USHL). Great skater, nice range of skills.
- RD Carter Sotherin, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Big, shutdown defender. Impressive.
- RD Dylan MacKinnon, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Big, defensively sound prospect.
- RD Matthew Mania, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). RHD, great speed, skill.
- LC Luca Pinelli, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Undersized, average speed, skilled, determined.
- RW Daniil Bourish, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL). Pure skill, great shot. 19.
- G Trey Augustine, US Natl Development Team (USHL). .928SP and 6.01, 179.
- LD Rodwin Dionicio, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Overager, 6.02, 205, big offense. Hire this man!
- RW Easton Cowan, London Knights (OHL). Small, fast skilled.
- RD Maxim Strbak, Sioux Falls Stampede (USHL). Mobile two-way D with size.
- LW Eric Alarie, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL). Big skill winger, I list him every year. He’s worth a pick.
- RC Matyas Melovsky, Baie-Comeau Drakkar (QMJHL). Ridiculous playmaker.
- G Scott Ratzlaff, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). A .918SP should get scouts attention.
- LD Xavier Daigle, Cape Breton Eagles (QMJHL). Steady shutdown blue.
- RW James Stefan, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). OA, creative winger.
- LW Antonin Verreault, Gatineau Olympiques (QMJHL). Playmaking winger. Great passer.
- LD Sawyer Mynio, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Fine skater, two-way type.
- LD Luke Coughlin, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL). Two-way D, solid outscoring, impressive playoff.
- LD Tristan Bertucci, Flint Firebirds (OHL). Good size, mobile, two-way type.
- RC Ty Halaburda, Vancouver Giants (WHL). Small, skilled smart.
- LD Michael Hagens, Chicago Steel (USHL). Two-way D trending.
- LC Justin Gill, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Big, strong, scorer, he’s 20.
- G Thomas Milic, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Average size, now 20, someone draft him!
- RW Tanner Adams, Tri-City Storm (USHL). Skill winger, late spike.
- LD Isaac Menard, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). Skilled and effective, he’s 19.
- LW Brady Stonehouse, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Smaller forechecking demon with skill. 2004.
- LC Justin Cote, Drummondville (QMJHL). Under the radar, but he has skill. July 2004.
- LC Cole Burbidge, St. John’s Sea Dogs (QMJHL). Slick center turned a corner.
STATE OF THE 50-MAN
The Oilers don’t have many players for next season. I know that sounds ridiculous, but the truth is the 50-man list currently sits at 31. The team has nine days to sign Patrik Puistola, but it’s crickets and we’ll see. Here is the current 50-man depth chart by position, and then we’ll talk RFA, UFA and AHL contracts.
- GOALIES (4): Stuart Skinner, Jack Campbell, Calvin Pickard, Ryan Fanti
- LEFT DEFENSE (6): Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Cam Dineen
- RIGHT DEFENSE (3): Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Max Wanner
- CENTER (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, James Hamblin, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg, Carl Berglund
- LEFT WING (6): Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov
- RIGHT WING (6): Zach Hyman, Kailer Yamamoto, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Seth Griffith, Jake Chiasson
These are early days, and the RFA’s that will be added improve the look of the roster. I’m counting Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin, Raphael Lavoie, Noah Philp, Phil Kemp and Olivier Rodrigue as certain to return. That takes the list to 38 names.
- GOALIES (5): Stuart Skinner, Jack Campbell, Calvin Pickard, Olivier Rodrigue, Ryan Fanti
- LEFT DEFENSE (6): Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Cam Dineen
- RIGHT DEFENSE (5): Evan Bouchard, Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Phil Kemp, Max Wanner
- CENTER (8): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod, Noah Philp, James Hamblin, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg, Carl Berglund
- LEFT WING (7): Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov
- RIGHT WING (7): Zach Hyman, Kailer Yamamoto, Klim Kostin, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Seth Griffith, Jake Chiasson
This roster, with the rfa’s back in the fold, has some extreme strengths. Center runs eight deep but several men listed as wingers could move over. Areas that are deep enough to trade from strength to address weakness elsewhere? I count left defense and left wing. Among the ufa’s, I think Derek Ryan is most likely to return. I’m less convinced about Nick Bjugstad, Mattias Janmark and Devin Shore. I’m not sure any of the minor league rfa’s (Tyler Benson, Justin Bailey, Slater Koekkoek, Jason Demers) receive an offer.
AHL DEALS
The Oilers, or rather the Bakersfield Condors, have several players already signed to minor-league deals. Men like Vincent Desharnais and James Hamblin parlayed AHL contracts into NHL deals a year ago, and some of these names might be doing the same a year from now.
LD Xavier Bernard, 23. He signed a one-year AHL deal on May 19. Bernard is intriguing. Red Line Report had him No. 37 overall in 2018, saying “big, strong, smart and reliable” and all of those things will be in fashion this fall for the organization. He was 1-0-1 in 12 games with the Condors last season, acquired from the Belleville Senators in exchange for Graham McPhee.
LD Alex Peters, 26. To my eye, he was the best of the AHL contracts a season ago. Through the end of February, his on-ice goal share at even strength was 38-23 (62 percent) and he settled things down often in California. I was mildly surprised the club didn’t give him an NHL deal, but then again the left side of the defensive depth chart is plenty deep. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays some games for the Oilers in the coming years.
RW Ethan De Jong, 24. A fine two-way winger from North Vancouver, De Jong ended his college career in fine style with a national championship. His Quinnipiac club weathered some difficult games to win it all. Oilers fans were hoping for center Skyler Brind’Amour (who did not sign), but De Jong has a story to tell. He has a good shot and some offensive acumen, but I think the big selling point is his responsible play while in pursuit of the puck.
RW Dino Kambeitz, 23. I confess to liking this player way more than his talent merits. He plays a determined game, and simple. Kind of like Patrick Russell if you recall him. I don’t think Kambeitz ever plays in the NHL but I’d love to see it.
BAKERSFIELD NHLE
- Dylan Holloway 33
- Seth Griffith 33
- Raphael Lavoie 29
- Cam Dineen 25
- Philip Broberg 23
- Xavier Bourgault 22
- Justin Bailey 22
- Noah Philp 21
- James Hamblin 21
- Tyler Benson 21
- Yanni Kaldis 20
- Brad Malone 20
- Klim Kostin 18
- Mike Kesseling 18
- Tyler Tullio 16
- Alex Peters 15
- Luke Esposito 13
- Jason Demers 13
- Phil Kemp 12
- Max Gildon 12
- Greg McKegg 12
- Carter Savoie 10
- Darien Kielb 10
- Markus Niemelainen 9
- Dino Kambeitz 9
- Graham McPhee 7
- Vincent Desharnais 6
- Xavier Bernard 3
- Carl Berglund 0
On the NHLSid article, it’s weird that there was no mention of Ceci’s injury.
https://oilersnation.com/news/why-edmonton-oilers-cannot-stick-with-the-darnell-nurse-and-cody-ceci-pairing-for-next-season
I’d say the big picture shows Nurse-Ceci as quite competent over 2 seasons (they were indeed awful against Vegas though).
Nurse-Ceci last 2 seasons at 5v5:
1584 min
50.8%CF
50.1%SF
50.4%GF
51.6%xGF
51.1%SCF
55.4%HDCF
This was against the most difficult opposition in the league.
I really disagree that the team ‘cannot stick’ with that pairing next season.
I spoke to that in the comments section of the article – no comparison to Ceci’s play the prior year nor the play of the Nurse/Ceci pairing the prior year.
Listening to some Oilers Now from late last week at the gym this morning and Bob is now talking about Ceci’s season long injury as a groin.
NEW for The Athletic: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
https://theathletic.com/4538691/2023/05/22/oilers-salary-cap-2023-24/
I just spent an hour revisiting old comments from the pre-season LT posts…..
Seems most of us overvalued Kulak’s ability to play 2LD, weirdly I would still make this bet today.
Holloway was overvalued, most of us expected him to blow the doors off or at least have an above average season…again I would make this bet for next season
I personally underrated Ryan after a poor showing in pre-season, hopefully he’s back on the 4th line.
Most of the predictions around the flames moves were on the right track…most commenters thought they would be in tough to bounce back after losing their top sorcerers…nobody predicted the carnage that ensued.
Nobody saw Jack Campbell’s abysmal season coming
I mused that Yamo might get bought out at 1/3 if he had a poor season and everybody downvoted the shit out of me….seems I might have been close on that prediction.
I also nailed the 2nd tie-breaker for the season’s point predictions with Leon’s 52 goals.
The folks who thought Samorukov would get claimed on waivers couldn’t have been more wrong.
September 4th, LT almost killed the blog, and my favourite comment in the past 10 years came thru from N64
“Good night comments, Good work, Sleep well, I’ll most likely kill you in the morning”
NHL_Sid with a deep dive on the Nurse-Ceci pairing.
https://oilersnation.com/news/why-edmonton-oilers-cannot-stick-with-the-darnell-nurse-and-cody-ceci-pairing-for-next-season
So, someone to anchor the pairing?
Then get Oscar Madison on left wing, acquire Lenny & Squiggy to swap in at center and Boom! Odd Couple Line.
What’s Lennart Petrell* doing these days?
Might also have to enquire about Henrik Squiggardsson’s** status.
*Hahahahahaha
**May not actually exist. You see, LT enjoined me to “drink the good drinks” and so I am enjoying homemade palomas, which I’d never heard of until we holidayed in Mexico in December. Blame him! 😀
The 2023 Memorial Cup is set:
OHL Peterborough Petes
QMJHL Quebec Remparts
WHL Seattle Thunderbirds
Host Kamloops Blazers
The field is now set for the Memorial Cup:
Kamloops (host)
Seattle (WHL)
Peterborough (OHL)
Quebec (QMJHL)
Go Petes go!
Just for giggles.
Say we move on from both Yamo and Janmark and try to replace them with 2 RW who total 4-5m cap? Need two way mid 6 types, still some threat to score but definitely difficult to play against.
I just ran a look on Cap Friendly, filtered RW playing min 25 games, min 0.4 pt/game under 29, salary 3m or less.Any of these look like potential candidates? Why or why not, do you think?
Troy Terry ANA 24
Martin Necas CAR
Matthew Boldy MIN
Daniel SProng SEA
Alex Barbanov SJ
Dawson Mercer NJ
Gabe Vilardi LA
Owen Tippett PHI
Arthur Kaliyev LA
Kaapo Kakko NYR
Taylor Raddysh CHI
Oliver Wahlstrom NYI
Jesse Ylonen MTL
Kirill Marchenko CLB
Luke Kunin SJS
Jonatan Berggren DET
Walker Duehr CAL
Emil Bernstrom CLB
These are mostly RFA’s. The top 1- from Troy Terry to Kaapo Kakko are not likely to be available as will be pretty key to their current clubs and unlikely to shake loose. So for argument’s sake let’s reduce the list of RFA’s to:
Taylor Raddysh CHI
Oliver Wahlstrom NYI
Jesse Ylonen MTL
Kirill Marchenko CLB
Luke Kunin SJS
Jonatan Berggren DET
Walker Duehr CAL
Emil Bernstrom CLB
AND UFA Barbanov from SJS.
Are there any non-expiring contracts as well we should add to this list for consideration? Anyone we might get in a trade?
SOrry if there are any inaccuracies. I am still trying to master CapFriendly!
I’ll throw Kyle Okposo’s name out there, although he doesn’t fit your under 29 criteria (or really ANY of your criteria LOL)
He’ll be eligible to sign a 35+ contract (low base salary with performance bonuses) and in Kenny’s eyes 35 is still mid career
He’s played his whole career in NY state so Edmonton may be a bridge too far, although perhaps the lure of a chance for Stanley may change his mind
I like Toffoli in Calgary as well, although that would have to be a deadline deal- perhaps we can get Conroy to throw in Chris Tanev as well once the Calgarians are eliminated from playoff contention
Many of those names are premium talents in their prime on ELCs. I’m not saying that they’re not tradeable, but the price to acquire them would be catastrophic. Troy Terrry, Martin Necas, Boldy, Vilardi, Tippett–just to name a few.
In your second tier pile some of those guys are tweeners who score on the power play, but don’t PK or defend well. Taylor Raddysh. They won’t get PP on the Oilers.
I don’t know the rest to pick out which one might be reasonably available and helpful.
If you look at the forwards as a group, RW is the spot to improve/make more efficient Cap wise .
Nominally, our better centers are McDavid, Draisatl, Nuge, McLeod (RFA) Bjugstad (RFA) and Philp (RFA). Our LW are Kane, Hyman, Foegele, Holloway and Kostin (RFA).. Our RW are Yamamoto, Ryan (UFA), Janmark (UFA) and Lavoie (RFA). Don’t worry too much about who is C/RW/LW in general as some centers also play wing, some wingers play both sides.
Of the RFA’s McLeod will definitely be resigned, Bjugstad if the price is reasonable, and Philp definitely deserves a shot but won’t break the bank.Kostin will get a raise but he doesn’t have a ton of leverage.
I like Ryan at 1m or 1.25m and would be willing to do a 1 yr with a good signing bonus we can use as bonus overage against next year vs a no bonus salary. He is oklder, local, and with family. He knows his career is in the final stages and likely does not want to move his family for a 1 or 2 year deal. Keeping him on a 1 yr at a dtime deal jst makes too much sense for both.
Yamamoto is RFA with arb ar 3.1m. Love the guy, love the try. But too pricey for what we get, especially in the playoffs.
Janmark is a 30 yr old UFA at 1.25M, he is what he now is, his peak years are not ahead of him. If we can use him at his current salary, no problems returning him.
Lavoie is unknown at the NHL level of play, but has earned a shot.
What I wonder is, as the combined current hit for Yamo and Janmark is 4.35m, can we realistically get two reliable, tough to play against middle six RW for 4-5M? FOr me that would be the move. Trying to get at least one of them in any trades we make to shift our roster, rather than just from FA might widen the available pool as well.
Can it be done? Debate/discuss?
1) Bjugstad is a UFA, not RFA – as per my previous post, unless he takes a discount to play in Edmonton of apx $500K to market, I think he’s out – Philp opportunity *knock knock
2) I think you mean performance bonus on Ryan, not signing bonus. Signing bonuses hit the cap up front, performance bonuses at the end of the season if vested. There is also a chance that the team has some cap space at year end and bonuses hit do not create a penalty for next season.
3) Yamamoto isn’t an RFA – he’s signed and on the books at $3.1MM for one more season.
4) No doubt that Lavoie has earned a real opportunity to break camp with the team. Of course, he could score 5 goals in exhibition and make the team and still not be NHL ready. I wish exhibition performances actually meant something but they really don’t. Add Noah Philp to that opportunity list as well, in my opinion.
To add to OP’s points, the $4.35M from Yamamoto and Janmark will be needed (all of it or very close) to re-sign Bouchard and McLeod.
The Oilers can’t simply take money from Yamamoto and Janmark and re-allocate to different RW’s. To add $4.35M in RW’s, the team would need to move out Foegele/Kulak out in addition to Yamamoto (and not re-sign Janmark). That changes the equation considerably.
There’s a dearth of RW free agents available. Those that are are either mostly too old, too expensive, both, or aren’t coming to Edmonton (Kane, Taresenko, Kessel, Okposo)
I was really disappointed that Holland didn’t call Lavoie up for a few games.
Vancouver:
Boeser
Garland
Beauvillier
Podkholzin
Karlsson
Studnika
Klimovitch
The first two are expensive but the rest are not.
That list seems overly strict on who can/does play RW, but to the post you replied to, the Oilers also don’t have easy money to spend on any of those guys anyway.
Perhaps Yamamoto isn’t the guy the Oilers should send out to clear cap space?
If they do move him though, I expect 2RW to be more Warren Foegele and Klim Kostin than Patrick Kane or Vlad Tarasenko.
And I’m not really sure how Lavoie factors in there at all. He’s a LW who looks like he’s finally taken a step and should get a look in the NHL.
There’s no reasonable scenario I can see where he should be expected to be a top 6 winger out of the box (at age 23 no less). If he can contribute as a regular in the lineup (top 9 or top 12) next year that would be a great result IMO.
I don’t see how Lavoie getting a few games with the Oilers this season would have changed that outlook.
Lavoie’s listed as a right-handed shot.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=195949
Because it ruined my Abdelkader parallel.
Abdelkader (another second round pick) played a few regular season games in his draft +4 year for Detroit then was called up after injury in the playoffs and scored a few key goals.
After his first, the play by play guy famous quipped, “What’s an Abdelkader?”
jmo but I think these kids who played in the pandemic year didn’t receive the fully monty in entry deals. Even a player like Ryan McLeod had AHL experience before 2020-21 but Lavoie basically spent just a few weeks as an AHL rookie.
I think he’ll be on the opening night lineup and work his way up the depth chart ala McLeod. In his first full season, McLeod’s time on ice was low (6:21, 5:22, 7:18) and he played in just four games through Remembrance Day.
Lavoie is a right hand shot but he played almost exclusively left wing in the AHL this past season. Not to say he can’t play right wing but he has been a left winger during his pop season.
So then this:
was in jest and/or basically unrelated to Oilers team building?
No, I was genuinely disappointed.
Though I had incorrectly predicted that Lavoie would be our Abdelkader, I still wanted him to be.
I’m also impatient. I am curious to see how he looks at the NHL level. Sometimes players with career arcs like Lavoie can surprise you in a positive or way at the NHL level.
Ha! I have a silly suggestion for a headline for tomorrow’s post. “Taking Care of Business (and working overtime)”. four of our games so far this round have all gone to overtime, and the Oilers are reportedly committing to a man to “work overtime” to get the Cup next year. SIlly idea or no?
Gotta keep looking out for #1, ya know. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
Ja! You keel me!!!!! You keel me!!!
🤣
Typo and too late to edit. Four of four, not Four of our.
Oilers moves this summer:
1) trade or buyout Yamamoto … Holland needs cap space to fill out the rest of the roster, and we already know what Yamo is capable of. He can be a useful presence in the top 9 during the regular season, but does not have enough size or speed to have an impact in the playoffs. I’d prefer to get a pick if possible … any pick will do. It’s time to see what Holloway, Lavoie and maybe even Bourgault can do in our top 6. Hopefully one of these guys emerges as a legit option over the course of the season. Otherwise the rest of the top 6 is set … McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, RNH, Hyman.
2) Bridge Bouchard … again, Holland needs cap space to fill out the rest of the roster. 1 year deal, so that he can be extended the following season, when the cap finally goes up in a meaningful way.
3) Resign the RFAs … neither McLeod or Kostin did enough this season to get large raises.
4) Resign one or both of the UFAs Janmark and Ryan to the minimum … Bjugstad will likely want more, but I’m not sure he gets what he’s looking for. Holland may be able to swing back to him later in the summer, and get him on a value deal.
5) Leave enough cap space available to be able to sign one or two value deals late in the summer
And …. that’s it.
The defence will be the same as what we finished the playoffs with … which is totally fine. That defence core 1 through 7 can win regular season games. It’s a far better group than what we started 2022-2023 with. Woodcroft and Manson have to figure out the 5v5 defence though… that man-to-man system needs to be totally revised.
Skinner should be better and more confident in net – he needs to work on rebound control and puck handling; Campbell literally can’t be any worse than he was this year and is a pretty good bet to rebound and really compete with Skinner for the starting job.
Key will be to manage the cap in a way that allows them to accrue enough cap space to make one last big splashy deal at the 2024 trade deadline (e.g. Karlsson or another RHD that would be a material upgrade on Ceci … that player is really not in view at this time, so Holland will need to keep his powder dry until then).
Agree in principle, especially the 1 yr on Bouch. Is it feasible, do you think, to get him at a lower than expected Cap number for next season if they have a LT deal in the desk drawer to pull out for after next year where the difference in his expected 1 yr hit and what he takes is made up in a signing bonus on that subsequent deal? For example, let’s say they want a yr @ 4 or 8 @ 8, and we counter with 1@ 2 and a subsequent 8@ 8 + a 2 million signing bonus for the longer contract on top of the 8×8? Spreads the difference between his 1 yr ask and 1 yr get over the longer extension, making much less cap impact on a single season basis for the next two years. ALso effectively gets him under contract for 9 years total!
Any signing bonus would be included in the overall cap number of the subsequent long term deal.
Duh. THAT is the point. spread the savings on the short trm deal over the longer deal. SO a 2m bonus becomes an additional Cap hit 2M spread over 8 years, rather than all at once on the 1 yr bridge. Please read what I wrote.
The signing bonus is not on the bridge deal, it is on the longer subsequent deal.
All signing bonuses (for all years of a contract) get added to the salary and aggregated in order to determine the overall cap hit.
If a player had a contract that paid him $4M of salary in years one and two and then a signing bonus of $2MM in year two, the cap hit would be ($4M + $4M + $2M)/2 for $5MM.
Almost every pundit is expecting a Bouchard bridge deal would start with a 4.
What amount are you expecting as a “bonus” on a longer deal the following offseason?
I would also look at trade or FA to try get solid two way types for RW, hopefully one or two players. Need to be done below the money saved on Yamo and possibly another RW moving on in some fashion. I don’t need top drawer scoring from these targets, but they need to be a credible threat to score SOME and be difficult to play against. Goal suppression is my mantra this next year. We have great offence, need better overall defence.
1) Ya, it seems like a no-brainer that they need to move on from Yamo. Then again, we thought it was a no-brainder that one of Jesse, Kailer, Foegele or Barrie were gone last off-season……
Rishaug thinks the return on Yamo could be a 3rd round pick – in that neighbourhood. I’m not sure there is that much positive value there at $3.1MM but I do think he should be moveable without the buyout.
2) Its going to have to be a bridge which is too bad but it is what it is. I don’t see it being just one-year but perhaps they do the “Lebanc Deal” where they have the 3rd contract agreed to and sign it in January. I don’t know if that type of structure is in Holland’s wheel-house but perhaps.
3) Neither will break the bank but both may get a bit more than we may want/anticipate. Lets not forget that McLeod did the org a big favour signing for a pay cut and below his QO in order to fit in to the opening night cap. I presume, he’ll be taken care of and he’ll be between $1.5MM and $2MM – hopefully for 2 years.
Kostin has arb rights and 11 goals in less than a full season could get him near $1.5MM in arb. Here is hoping he will take a bit of term for a lower AAV but he’s got a bit of leverage.
4) Re-signing Ryan is a no-brainer but I don’t think he’s taking a $500K pay cut to league min (and I don’t think he “deserves” to be cut that low). They could do a base near league min, say $800K with $200k-$300K of performance bonuses that are easily hit (say for 10 games played). That will keep his cap hit at $800K for the season and they may be able to fit the bonuses in at year end and not take a cap penalty for next season.
Unless Bjugstad is willing to take like $500K less to play in Edmonton ($1.25MM vs $1.75MM that he should be able to get in the market), I don’t think there is room for him. I’d be fine to let him walk, clear some room for Philp to try and win a spot and, if he can’t, and doesn’t though the season, a cheap depth right shot center can be acquired near the deadline.
I don’t think there’s another team in the league willing to give Ryan or Janmark more than the minimum. No need to overpay … if they want to be Oilers and chase a ring, then they won’t quibble over an extra $100-200K, which after taxes, escrow and agent fees works out to 30-60K extra. A Stanley Cup ring is worth about 25K these days.
McLeod and Kostin will both get modest raises. Neither should break the bank.
Bouchard will get the same AAV as Dobson. He had a nice run this spring, but until that point, Dobson was out-performing him.
I wasn’t really impressed with Bjugstad to be honest. He was ineffective at best, and a liability at times against Vegas. McLeod’s deserved those minutes more, and should be given a shot to centre the third line at the start of the season. I wouldn’t go much over 1 million for Bjugstad, and if another team wants to pay him more, then godspeed.
Woodcroft has until trade deadline 2024 to figure out if the organization has something in Holloway, Lavoie, and Philip, and to get McLeod and Kostin more involved.
I do think Ryan deserves and warrants more respect than a $475K pay cut to league min and with 13 goals scored plus his 2-way responsibility, etc., he could warrant more on the open market – he doesn’t want to go but Holland will give the man his respect I believe.
That contract can be structured to give him more than the league min but with a lower cap ht.
————
I spoke to why I think that Kostin and McLeod will get a bit more than maybe one would think but still “modest raises”. Arbitration is a real factor and there is a risk with qualifying Kostin without a deal in place – I think they will come a multi-year deal below what he could likely get in arb.
———–
I think the Bouchard negotiation will be a bit more nuanced then “getting the Dobson AAV” and I don’t think there is a hope that the Oilers get 3 years at $4MM – that’s a one-year type AAV for Bouch.
Dobson never out-performed Bouchard at even – he only had higher point totals due to the PP and, once Bouch got real PP time, well, he’s blow Dobson out of the water production wise.
Noah Dobson remains highly sheltered at 5 on 5 – this season he played 23% of his TOI vs elites and, 35% against mids and 41% against the grits. Bouchard was similar for the season but, of course, after the trade deadline and in the playoffs he was seeing top 6 comp much of the time.
What about drafted college players who may turn pro this year? What is our situation there in your opinion?
Oilers could sign Munzenberger and Maatta, both players they have drafted. The team didn’t spent much time in college free agency, with only Carl Berglund signed this season.
Gracias. ANy other drafted but unsigned (ie. – Euros) we should watch for?
Several, but aside from Puistola (who needs to be signed in the next 10 days) they’re all at least one year away.
The Russians have two promising names, Berezkin and Yevseyev. I hope we see them in Oilers colours someday, both brilliant prospects.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/reserve-list/oilers
Thanks, boss. You da best.
Well, there are a few on this list from Corey Pronman, which also includes CHL and NCAA players.
Keep in mind this is from February and some of these players have signed already (AFAIK, #3 Livingstone, #6 Smejkal, #9 McKown, #10 Sedoff, #22 Hirose, #24 Polin, #29 McAllister, possibly more I’m missing).
Oh, and from the list at the end, McDonough and Thrun are signed–possibly others too.
Crap, this is probably wasn’t what you were looking for, Mayan Oil. Disculpe, señor!
Livingston – Nashville
Thrun -San Jose
Hirose – Vancouver
Polin – Colorado
McDounagh – Vancouver
De nada, amigo. Todos buen.!
To my amateur eye, I see the Oilers targets for the Draft being RW/C, especially two way types with speed, and RD, again two way types with goal suppression skillsets and puck movement ability. Gotta feed that pipeline.
What do you think and why?
Regarding RD, there’s Oliver Bonk (yes, son of Radek) of the London Knights, who’s reportedly one of the better defensive d-men near the top of the draft. Might not last till the Oilers first pick at #57, but one never knows…
I like him as an option! I guess when the rubber hits the tarmac, there are bound to be a couple of intriguing players drop for whatever reason by pick 58… Going to be interesting.
Pro man has him ranked in the first round.
Can someone tell me how Craig Conroy being promoted from AGM to GM of the Flames is supposed to improve that team? Seems like a remarkably old boys club move, and if I was a Flames fan I would be pretty annoyed.
The Flames apparently talked to 40 other candidates but decided Conroy was the best fit.
Not sure why this would be a negative since Conroy has certainly put in the work over several years.
Both Vegas and Colorado have promoted AGMs and they seem to be doing just fine.
It will be interesting to see who Conroy adds or subtracts from the staff.
Iginla and Conroy are said to be very close.
Some context.
https://theathletic.com/4538895/2023/05/21/flames-craig-conroy-gm/?source=user_shared_article
Time will tell. I would say that interviewing a large number of candidates is only meaningful if ownership did so in good faith and truly came to the conclusion that Conroy is the best fit. In other words, the Flames aren’t just going through the motions to give the impression of diligence to their fans. Conroy seemed to have been telegraphed as the next GM by insiders ever since Treliving was out, which suggests to me he may have been the pick all along. But ultimately, we’ll see what Conroy can do compared to his predecessor.
As for Vegas and Colorado, my take is that those organizations have a better track record of hires and organizational success in recent years than Calgary. So I would have more faith in their decision making than Calgary right now. The Conroy hire reminds me of an Oilers-like move.
I don’t know. I think it’s more than fair to say the Oilers also have a better track record in recent years than Calgary.
Not a lot to choose between the Oilers and Vegas either.
Flames have missed the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years. Vegas missed (narrowly) last year.
Oilers and Vegas are virtually tied in points percent over the last 3 seasons (.652 and .648) at 7th and 8th in the league. Calgary is 13th at .589.
Vegas (at this point) has won 4 series over the 3 years. The Oilers have won 3. Calgary has won 1.
Pretty sure the Oilers belong more in the Vegas/Colorado group of team than whatever group includes the Flames
Of course Vegas was starting from zero and only missed last season due to an historic run of injuries.
Vegas is also the current favourite to win the cup.
Hmmm, weren’t the Oilers the favorites a week ago?
Yeah…and now they’re not.
Cant keep the puck out of their net.
Yup, poor goaltending in a small sample.
Anyway, we know you won’t acknowledge anything that shows the Oilers positively.
Making the final 8 is positive. Sure beats the alternative.
Vegas has won 9 playoff series in the past 6 years.
Edmonon has won 4 in the past 10.
That’s a decent sample size.
Bettman handed Vegas and Seattle cherry players through expansion and then put them in the Oilers division. Chiarelli was a fool for not taking advantage right away, and I don’t think Holland will be here when the Oilers win, but this Edmonton team is damn close.
One Brogan Rafferty away!!
Better hurry…SoCal is coming.
Kings for sure, but Anaheim and San Jose would do well to join Vancouver in a rebuild. Wait! Being told Canucks are NOT in a rebuild!!
They aren’t actually that far from being competitive but are absolutely pooched by the cap…worst in the league.
Anaheim is rebuilding and have a quartet of blue chip D almost ready to go.
If they draft Fantilli as expected, they will be exceptional at C.
With nearly $40 million in cap space and a ton of draft picks, they should easily be able to add impact scoring wingers.
Their coaching hire will be critical but they are likely only a couple of seasons away from being a force IMO.
I’ve never really considered this to be a loophole. No drafted player has to sign with the team that drafting them and all would eventually become UFAs if they don’t sign – the timelines simply vary a bit (5 years for 18 year olds drafted out of Europe, through graduating year for those drafted out of NCAA, 2-years to offer a contract for those drafted out of major junior, etc.).
I actually think that drafting out of the NCAA can be advantageous for drafting players in the middle and late rounds that likely need lots of time to develop – it provides a longer run-way before needing to make a contract offer as opposed to drafting out of the CHL – need to offer by June 1 of the second year after the draft).
Nobody writes about green bananas with as much interest and passion as LT.
Damn straight.
Or hind bananas.
The worst bananas!
An absolute pleasure to read.
Thank you for your dedication to the craft.
Fabolous amount of info this article, thanks LT.
Injury and father time are my big concerns about Kane but their is opportunity as well.
Could this crafty vet play RW?
It’s effects on the depth cart would be advantageous and simplify the summer shopping list. Shooting from his off side might be improved if the wrist injury has taken some speed off his fast ball.
Leavins with 9 things.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/can-the-edmonton-oilers-punch-through-where-another-canadian-nhl-franchise-could-not-9-things
The amount of information and analysis we receive through this forum is breathtaking
Perron is Canadian, so that’d help with signability. Same for Hrabal and Strbak, being Euros.
Quick note on Strathmann: he was dealt from Tri-City to Youngstown during the offseason, so played this past season with Lachance. Would imagine the Oilers’ scouts have a decent book on Strathmann (and Whitelaw too).
I’d like that, Edmonton needs another Jeff Petry schnell.
Did Vinny D have a rough playoff ? Yes.
Is Vinny found money? Yes.
Home grown, value, 3rd pairing D -that can penalty kill.
This playoff experience is going to pay dividends for Vinny, Skinner and Bro.
I agree.
Not just found money, but he’s already covered his bet this season. If he never plays another game, finding a player who then broke into the league and saved the season is a home run for the 7th round.
Fantastic pick by the scouts and work by the development team.