One of the things we rarely discuss in this part of the hockey spring is the actual trade targets by other teams as they contemplate deals with Edmonton. If you want to read every online story about offloading Kailer Yamamoto, Cody Ceci, Warren Foegele or Brett Kulak, it’s an all day affair. Chances are, we as a group aren’t close to what is happening in conversation between general managers.
Here’s something to contemplate: What Oilers players are being pursued by other teams? Ah. Yes. Now the sphincter tightens.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why playoff experience for Oilers rookies is an important building block
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- DNB: The Oilers are out of the playoffs and there’s plenty of blame to go around
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Matvey Petrov and his possible future
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- DNB: Why Oilers’ Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combo is the ultimate luxury: ‘It’s magic’
- Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
SALARY PRESSURE POINTS
“Well,” said Pooh, “what I like best,” and then he had to stop and think. Because although Eating Honey was a very good thing to do, there was a moment just before you began to eat it which was better than when you were, but he didn’t know what it was called.”
AA Milne
I’m always amazed by how certain people are about hockey players. Jack Campbell for instance. There’s a sense in the comments section of this blog he will remain as he was last season. This opinion is written over and over across the universe even as Sergei Bobrovsky ends the dreams of Carolina’s most prominent hockey club.
What is true about Jack Campbell is that his trade value is negative in the extreme.
Kailer Yamamoto has value, but doesn’t cover $3.1 million in cap so would require a sweetener to move. The reality is a buyout is legit possible. A buyout saves $2.67 million and Edmonton doesn’t have to sweeten a trade to move on from him. It may not happen, Yamamoto’s goal shares and expected goal shares at five-on-five are over 50 percent and his points-60 in the discipline (1.53) isn’t awful. It just isn’t worth $3.1 million is all, but Edmonton’s management and coaching staff may decide to keep him as a backup to the new No. 2 right-winger who is surely coming. Yamamoto is a complementary player making too much money.
Warren Foegele is in a similar spot but has better numbers while playing with lesser centers. His 2.09 five-on-five points-60 is a damn strong number, the best of his career. He was 2.03 pts-60 away from Connor McDavid, played just over an hour with him. In 67 minutes, he scored 1-3-4 (3.58 per 60). Yamamoto played 216 minutes with 97, scoring 0.83 pts-60 (1-2-3). That’s not replacement level scoring.
Cody Ceci is an interesting player, and in my opinion success for him is tied to reducing workload. In the past two seasons with Edmonton, Ceci has played 1,020 minutes versus elites at five-on-five. That’s on the way to 38 percent of his total ice time. In those minutes, Edmonton is 33-31 goals. Not ideal, but you can live with it. I believe the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing should be elevated in the coming season, but the organization has been going Nurse-Ceci since Woodcroft arrived and habits are hard to break.
The numbers in 2021-22 for Ceci with and without McDavid against elites were kind of hilarious. In 175 minutes together versus elites, the duo was 1-6 goals with a strong 56 percent DFF percentage (DFF is smart Corsi, adding extra importance to dangerous and close shots). This past season, the two men were 10-5 goals in 210 minutes with a 55 percent DFF percentage. I understand the idea of moving on from him, but you need to have a better mousetrap to replace Nurse-Ceci.
Brandon Carlo from the Boston Bruins gets mentioned quite a bit, but his numbers versus elites have eroded. Last season, his DFF percentage fell to 46 percent from 53 in 2021-22 (via Puck IQ). Could he recover? Sure. Is he a good NHL defenseman? Yes. I’m not sure he’s a worthy feature move this summer. People name Damon Severson and he did have great numbers, but played just 24 percent of his five-on-five minutes versus elites. Ceci’s at 37+ percent.
Radko Gudas is a personal favourite, but the Florida Panthers reduced his minutes versus elites by a significant margin this season. The results remain fantastic (58 percent DFF in 207 minutes) but he’s also a little uncertain based on age and tread on the tire.
Who is a clear upgrade? I’ll name Chris Tanev, Jake Walman, Matt Roy, Sean Durzi, Matt Dumba (who is a free agent), Jared Spurgeon, Jacob Trouba, Adam Fox, Artem Zub, Eric Cernak, Alex Pietrangelo, Nick Jensen, Dmitri Orlov and Dylan DeMelo as being equal to or greater than Ceci based on Puck IQ’s readings.
Scott Mayfield is an unrestricted free agent with quality numbers, and made very little a year ago. You could double his salary and still have a bargain. The problem? Another team will have cap room to triple his salary and Edmonton will be left waving from the shoreline.
Cody Ceci can’t play those big minutes again next season, we all agree. It’s my opinion the Oilers should elevate Ekholm-Bouchard to No. 1 status and run Nurse-Broberg at times to ease the load on the second pairing. I’d love to see a solution.
Hey, here’s an idea. The last time Edmonton grabbed a bargain defenseman who could deliver in thise role was Jan Hejda, and before that it was Steve Staios. Maybe the next Oilers general manager can find the next Steve Staios. That would be a helluva story.
NEW for The Athletic: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
https://theathletic.com/4542635/2023/05/24/oilers-free-agent-targets-2023/
Nurse Bouchard – offensive minutes with top 6 forwards
Ekholm Ceci – a healthy Ceci with Ek eats the tough defensive minutes
Kulak Broberg Desharnais – mix and match, injuries happen
Unless a complete 2 way RH stud like Pesce somehow becomes available I don’t do anything with the defense except shift the pairs to maximize offense (Nurse-Bouchard) and defense (Ekholm-Ceci). The bottom pair remains as well since injuries happen and we were unusually injury free on defense in 22-23. It won’t happen 2 years in a row.
Fix the system. Manwood showed inflexibility by running guys out in the same roles no matter the result. Very disappointed in the handling of the goalies as well.
In a post that was probably too buried to see I listed UFA bottom forward targets. Engvall, Kampf, Hathaway and Koppanen as very good defensive players with size, who would be plus adds to this roster.
Cap & roster space would be made by trading Ceci, Yamamoto and Foegele+ for Karlsson at 50% retention.
Why would San Jose retain this much you ask? I can give you 33,000,000 reasons why.
Why would Edmonton do this? Because of this:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sC2fg5enAR4&pp=ygUuU28gZXJpayBrYXJsc3NvbiBpcyBzdGlsbCBhIHByZXR0eSBnb29kIHNrYXRlcg%3D%3D
***NOTE: Karlsson at this point had been on the ice since the opening face-off.
Benn should get 20 games for that…he might get 2
That’s just Jamie being Jamie.
Now that we know the precident, it must be one game.
What?
That’s a penalty now?
A Knights-Panthers final…
Least deserving two organizations ever?
One has no fans.
The other was gifted a deeper team than most of the league.
Stupid parity bullshit.
Tkachuk vs Eichel, US Hockey Fans will go Mild!
Also 2 star players that forced the team that drafted them to trade them. I wonder if other player will take note if they are unhappy with where they are at.
— Nah: Vegas in particular fits the profile of the team that historically generally wins Cups: One of top tier teams for multiple years. Been to looks like now two finals, two semis in the last 6 seasons. Last year everything went wrong for them.
— Vegas would be a legit addition as a deserving Cup winner IMO. They were one of 4 or so teams that once the playoffs started they were legit. (Oilers were another one). Florida not so much (but building foundation to be one)
They’ve only done this because it was gifted to them.
Making expansion teams good out of the box is an asinine spit in the faces of every team with a dedicated long term fan base.
The previous expansion team was the Wild in 2000 – they paid an expansion fee of $80MM.
Vegas paid $500MM
Seattle paid $650MM.
The cap circumvention ala Kuch in Tampa immediately disqualifies them from being worthy by any stretch of the imagination.
Deserving?
What does that mean?
They deserve a punch in the mouth, not a frickin’ Stanley Cup.
Both of these teams have eschewed the “draft and develop” mantra popular with “hockey men”
The Panthers roster has exactly 3 players they drafted albeit a couple foundational pieces in Barkov and Ekblad.
The rest of the team was acquired through trade (7), FA signing (11) and waiver claims (3)
In their 20 year history, they’ve had the #1 draft pick only once.
As for fan support, they have an average attendance this season of 16,682 (the playoffs will bump this) which is just below the league median.
Vegas only has 4 roster players acquired in the expansion draft and while the incompetence of other league GM’s certainly gave them an initial boost, they have likely been the most active team in using all other means to build a balanced roster.
The defense they have built through signings and trades is the best in the NHL IMO and their forward depth is in the top 5 in the league.
There is really no excuse for many teams who can’t compete with these two especially those who have high draft picks year after year but can’t manage to construct complete rosters.
I do agree with the modern method of getting players being superior to “draft and develop” in a cap league – but this all started from a base of gifting them a much higher low bar for their team than many other franchises. It’s a terrible method that disrespects everyone dedicated to any of the longstanding franchises.
Blech.
In almost every case, the advantage that Vegas gained was due to the incompetence of many other GMs.
Seattle was not afforded the same benefits but savvy management has them on the cusp of contender status.
It seems teams with a modern approach that includes taking analytics seriously are thriving.
Dallas is an interesting counterpoint in that they have used stellar drafting to move up the ranks but the “always in win now” mode teams like Vegas, Florida and Tampa are most certainly thriving.
It is ridiculous of you to compare Tampa and Florida to Vegas. Win now Florida won nothing for the last 27 seasons. It took them the better part of a decade after 4 picks in the top 3 between 2010 – 2014, to become a cup contender finally last season.
Always in now Tampa missed the playoffs 5 of 6 seasons between 2008 and 2013 (and again in 2017), getting to add Stamkos (1st overall) Hedman (2nd overall), Kucherov, Vasileviskey and the rest of the key pieces that got them to that win now mode by 2018 (high picks like Drouin got turned into Sergachev).
Florida has been around 30 seasons, not 20. They had the good fortune to get to the cup final in their 3rd season (for the 90’s expansion era the league turned a blind eye to hooking, holding and interference so the expansion teams could compete and not suffer the same fate as most of the sad sack expansions teams of the 70’s). So they wouldn’t have to do that again, to make Vegas and Seattle competitive, they gave them the most generous expansion draft rules ever. That’s what $500 million+ buys you.
Of course after making to the cup final in its 3rd season, Florida made the playoffs the next season, then over the next 21 seasons only made it to the playoffs 3 times, missing 18 times. And that run to the Stanley Cup in 1996 was the one and only season Florida won a playoff series till last season, a span of 26 years. That was a pretty sad sack franchise for a quarter century.
And this is the first season their average attendance has been over 15,000 since 2012. If they had missed the playoffs, which they almost did if Pittsburgh had beaten Chicago and Columbus, season ticket sales would have gone down. The rink is in almost as bad a spot as Glendale.
Between 2010 and 2014, they picked 3rd (Gubranson), 3rd (Huberdeau), 2nd (Barkov) and (1st) which is about the same timing as Colorado getting Landeskog, MacKinnon and Rantanen pretty high in the draft, so it’s not surprising they’d be much better now. And they only sent out Huberdeau for Tkachuk after last season getting the President’s trophy.
And since your history missed their first 10 seasons, they also picked Ed Jovanovski 1st overall in 1994. In their 30 seasons, they have picked top 5 – 9 times and the top 10 – 14 times.
Oettinger is getting pulled a lot. Must be a crap goaltender.
Maybe he can join Skinners foursome by this time Friday.
— Buying out the final year of a bonafide NHL player seems really dumb. Highly doubt that happens.
Chicago needs some contracts to get to the Cap Floor. If I am Holland and I trying very hard to get them interested in YAM FRY, CECI or CAMPBELL …..
With all that cap space Chicago is going to want sweeteners to take on bad contracts.
What would you suggest adding to move those contracts?
Holland: When asked if McDavid and Drai’s next contracts factor in to current decision making: Absolutely
With that said, he goes off an a tangent about trying to win now and doing things to improve now and really he’s concerned with the immediate and the day to day business of putting next season’s team together to compete for a championship.
IMO this is the hardest part of being a GM. You have to WIN now, but also keep in mind the team will be here long after you (GM) retire or move on.
Depending on the rumors, this may be his last season as the man calling the shots. So you know he’s going to go ALL IN at the deadline again.
I think what he’s doing regarding new contracts that will be coming to the big 2, is that he probably will sign a lot of 1 year or 2 year deals, set to expire the summer Drai needs his raise.
I thought I was looking at the Campbell contract from more of a pragmatic rather than pessimistic perspective. 🙂
The sample size is very small, but I’ll see if I get a chance to look back over maybe the past ten years to look at goalies over 30, who played more than 30 games in a season, and had a sub.900 save percentage to see how they did the following season.
Is that a reasonable approach?
Last year there was Grubauer, Greiss
Grubs: 59 starts .889 followed up with an .895 over 39 games the next season
Greiss: 34 with .891 followed by 21 .896 (changed teams)
The year prior, there was Martin Jones and Brian Elliot
Jones: 34 with .896 followed by 35 with .900 (changed teams)
Elliot: 31 with .899 followed by 19 with a .912 (changed teams)
For 2019-20, there was a bunch Rinne, Dubnyk, Jones, Holtby, Murray and Elliot.
Rinne went from 36 .895 to 25 .907
Dubnyk went from 30 .890 to 17 .898
Jones went from 41 .896 to 34 .896
Holtby went from 48 .897 to 21 .889 (changed teams)
Murray went from 38 .899 to 27 .893Elliot went from 30 .899 to 31 .889
— – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – —- – – – – – – – – – –
TLDR:
Now that’s only a
sample of 10sample of 9, but only two players were really above .900 the following season. That’s Brian Elliot who changed teams and only played 19 games along with Pekka Rinne. Rinne is a former Vezina winner.Probably the last year I can get to today. 2018-19
Quick : 46 .888 to 42 .904
Dadbot: 31 .893 (Oilers) / 26 gp .919 (changed teams)
Jones: 62 .896 to 41 .896
Ward: 33 .897 to retired
Smith: 42 .898 to 32 .902
Luongo 43 8.98 to retired
— – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – —- – – – – – – – – – –
TLDR:
So far, not one player went on to play a starter’s workload with league average results.
2017-18, Chad Johnson and Craig Anderson.
Johnson: 36 .891 to 19 games between two teams under .884
Anderson 58 games .898 to 50 .903
2016-17 Antti Niemi
37 .892 to 22 .873
2015-16 – no goalies met criteria
2014-15 — no goalies met criteria
2013-14 — no goalies met criteria
2012-13 — no goalies met criteria
— – — – – – – – – – – – — – – – –
TLDR:
If Campbell rebounds to a starter’s workload and a league average save percentage next season, he’ll be the first goalie meeting this criteria to achieve this feat in the past 10 years
If Campbell rebounds to a light backup workload and above league average save percentage, he’ll join two others who achieved this same feat, Dadbot and Elliot who played only 26 and 19 games respectively the following season.
This does not bode well for Soup.
Seems like a generally reasonable approach but somehow I feel like it didn’t achieve reasonable.
Is Rinne falling off the cliff at age 36/37 and not recovering relevant to Jack Campbell? Rinne had a .902 at age 30 btw, and then recovered with 5 straight stellar seasons including his Vezina win.
And including a guy like Martin Jones seems very unfair too. He finished his 20’s with 2 straight .896 seasons, then continued to post ~.900 seasons. Is that comparable to Campbell posting .921 and .914 to finish his 20’s then having a bad season? IMO not at all.
Is “Murray” Matt Murray? He’s only 28 currently.
lol. That’s my bad. Feels like he’s been around forever. I didn’t check his age.
I took a slightly different approach – basically just looked at goalies to see who’s over 30 and then looked back to see if they’d had a sub-.900 season after 30. I was also less strict on having to have played 30 games.
Stalock
.899 at 31
.910 at 32
DNP at 33
1GP at 34
.908 at 35
C. Anderson
.898 at 36
Never really recovered but he was 37/38 etc
F. Andersen
.895 at 31
.922 at 32
.903 at 33 (and .937 this playoffs)
Bobrovsky
.900 at 31 (not quite sub-.900)
.906 at 32
.913 at 33
.901 at 34 (and .935 this playoffs)
Talbot
.892 at 31
.919 at 32
.915 at 33
.911 at 34
.898 at 35
Greiss
.892 at 31
.927 at 32
.913 at 33
.912 at 34
.891 at 35
.896 at 36
You mentioned Grubauer, but last season was technically his age 29 season (didn’t turn 30 until late Nov.). He did not recover much though.
Elliott
Didn’t dip under .900 until age 34, and didn’t really recover though he continued(s) to back up for the Flyers and Lightning 3 seasons later.
Reimer
.900 at 30 (also not quite sub-.900)
.914 at 31
.906 at 32
.911 at 33
.890 at 34
Jones
(.896 at 28)
(.896 at 29)
.896 at 30
.900 at 31
.887 at 32
As I said I don’t think this type of trajectory is worth mentioning as a comparison.
Quick
.888 at 32
.904 at 33
.898 at 34
.910 at 35
.882 at 36
Smith
.898 at 36
.902 at 37
.923 at 38
.915 at 39
Price
.900 at 30 (not quite sub-.900)
.918 at 31
.909 at 32
.901 at 33
Koskinen
.899 at 32
.903 at 33
Dubnyk
.890 at 33
Didn’t recover
Holtby
.897 at 30
.889 at 31
.913 at 32
Hutton
.898 at 33
Didn’t recover
Howard
.882 at 35
Didn’t recover
Luongo
.899 at 40
Not sure how this is relevant
Ward
.897 at 34
Didn’t recover, but did recover from the .898 he posted at age 29.
I dunno, if you look at goalies that weren’t ancient, and were actually decent before their down season, the outlook looks pretty decent, no?
Thanks for that. Did you do this manually like me or can you scrape data like Georgexs?
Goalie Bob and Price were at .900. Goalie Bob was below league average save percentage the following season (.908). I don’t think Bob or Price are reasonable comps for Campbell though. Both had Vezina trophies on their shelf. Bob had. 2.
Anderson rebounded nicely, but he had a very long track record with a heavy workload as a starter with good results. He also changed teams. Anderson’s career arc was vastly superior to Campbell’s. Anderson isn’t really a comp for Campbell either.
Greiss had one heck of a rebound. The Islanders are a better defensive team. Still that was something.
Stalock had a .910, but the league average that season was .912, so he was still below league average.
Goalie Bob, Price, and Anderson are in a different tier than Campbell, no question.
Greiss is probably in range. So, if Campbell rebounds, he won’t be the first guy to do it in the last 10 years, but he’ll be the second.
Looking at those names again, many of them battled injuries. It’s interesting that we don’t hear any talk of Campbell having an injury.
Talbot? Reimer?
Yes, did it manually.
My takeaway was that the large majority of goalies who were decent and not ancient rebounded pretty well. Not what you are taking from this, clearly.
Really the only ‘good’ goalie who fell flat at age 30/31 was Hotlby, and his numbers certainly weren’t helped by moving to Vancouver.
FWIW Campbell’s SV% was very comparable to Andersen and Bobrovsky’s in the couple of years prior to their respective downturns, but it’s true Campbell only had the 1 year as a starter so his workload in the -2 year was less.
Talbot? Reimer? I was referring to a goalie who beat league average with a starter’s workload the next season.
I had already mentioned Talbot. He rebounded. If you include his four games for Philly the next season, he actually had a.914 over 30 games. Reimer played only 25 games. League average that season was .910.
There’s 3 guys who rebounded to above league average SV% with a backup workload (Reimer, Talbot, and Elliot).
There’s 1 guy who rebounded to a starter’s workload with above league average SV% (Greiss).
And a couple of guys you’ve discounted because they aren’t in Campbell’s tier.
Come on Ryan, it looks like at least half of the decent goalies who have a shit year in their early 30’s (or late 20’s) rebound to being decent goalies again.
This is true even if not very many of them (and we haven’t looked at all that many goalies) in the very next year have and above average SV% and 40+ starts.
Holland on Oilers Now today was, again, asked straight up by Bob if he needs to bridge Bouchard for cap purposes.
Once again, Holland refused to give any credence one way or another (bridge vs. longer term).
Normally that would be neither here nor there but, as we know, Holland is a guy that generally tries to answer all questions and is honest and, frankly, generally quite blunt.
He has a long history of grinding RFAs going off their ELCs with no arb rights. Now, of course, he’s not going to give Bouch the Yamamoto or McLeod treatment but, often he would blurt out kind of the parameters (i.e. no arb rights, etc., etc.) – nothing here. I do think he would like to get this player signed for term but it may not be possible.
————————
Expressly agreed that, yes, he would like to bring back some of the pending UFA veterans but has to go through the process with their agents.
—————–
Fully expects a better season from Campbell in year two – absolutely no suggestion or hint that there is any thought of anyone other than Skinner/Campbell being the opening night goalies.
—————-
Asked about requiring progression from Holloway and Broberg and Holland quickly adds Lavoie to the group and mentions he’s a waiver player next season. Noted Lavoie is a waivers player and Holloway is not. Noted how little those three make on the cap as opposed to adding in an external player in the market.
————-
Exit meetings are over and now starting to reach out to agents.
————
When asked if he would trade future number 1s for a player with term at a good price point: “Firstly, I don’t know if we’d have the money”.
Thanks OP
Your last quote from Holland should be pinned at the top of every LT article going forward.
https://flamesnation.ca/news/the-calgary-flames-are-making-the-right-choice-in-hiring-craig-conroy-as-their-gm
Listen, I’m always willing to give someone a shot, but couldn’t this rosy article have been written 10 years ago, but insert MacTavish in place of Conroy? Funny how Flames fans can’t see the nepotism in hiring former Flames players (who fell short of a Cup) with 0 GM experience, while they were happy to pile onto Edmonton for the same offense not that long ago. I’m sure Kevin Lowe was a “steadying presence” and provided “continuity,” and that MacT was “popular in the dressing room.” That means shit when you’re negotiating with Lindholm, who is arguably their best value contract, on an extension after he openly questioned his desire to stay beyond the end of the contract…
There is also talk of bringing Iginla in as well.
100% this is Calgary’s OBC moment. Do remember that edmonton had a cup
run under the OBC before the DOD.
True. If Conroy brings them modern day Pronger, Peca, Samsonov, Spacek, and Roli, I will sadly eat my hat.
Moving Ceci so we can find another Ceci is miss guided.
After 60 games next year Bouchard is going to be your 1RHD and Ceci will be the 2RHD.
Broberg will push Ceci to the 3rd pairing in the 24/25 season.
Assuming Broberg arrives on time.
Which would be nice.
I would love to have an upgrade on Ceci in the top 4 next season but I don’t think its reasonably possible to find that player at the same or lower price point.
Sure, other players can be traded, to combine with Ceci’s departed cap, for an upgrade but other players need to be moved out just to bring back the necessary part of the gang (i.e. Bouchard, Mcleod, +).
The RD being bountied about don’t makes sense for me. For example: 1) Severson – will be much more expensive for a very limited upgrade, if any (at least no asset cost), 2) Soucy and Gudas – not upgrades, 3) Dumba – MAYBE an upgrade overall but certainly not in structured defensive play (also likely at least as expensive, if not more), 4) Parayko – 7 more years with regressed play and back issues (plus an asset haul).
Accumulate cap space and upgrade at the deadline.
They can start the year with the defence they have. Have to assume Bouchard is going to get bridged but if they can find a way to extend him long term that would be great.
KH is a patient/stubborn GM. He waited years on JP even though everyone assumed he’d be waived. They ran a small roster at the start of the year. They might actually have cap flexibility this year and that could make a huge difference at the deadline.
A steady diet of opposing top lines will have Bouchard turned into a pretzle by Christmas. Like every pairing he is on, Bouchard will need a partner to keep the puck out of the net.
Even with Ekholm, Bouchard was still negative 5X5.
And Ekholm can deliver most of what Bouchard can on the PP.
We needed Bouchard because he was inexpensive. As his cap goes up, he becomes less Tyson Barrie. Holland has to be carful not to overvalue Bouchard’s points. They are sweet when feeding high skill, ….but, he still gives most of it away.
Sorry YYC, your post was about Ceci, but I used it to push down Bouchard expectations.
I think Bouchard will continue as a valuable part of the team, but also seldom be out in the last minute of a tied game.
Bouchard and Ekholm were 27-8 goals at 5 on 5 in the regular season. I trust you aren’t basing everything on a small playoff sample size.
Ekholm can do everything Bouchard can on the PP – do you actually believe that yourself? Really?
Bouchard was getting crushed 5×5 until Ekholm showed up. Credit to Ekholm here, he is the driver of those numbers.
Ekholm showed us his shot, and his offence when allowed.
The difference between Ekholm and Bouchard would be similar to Barrie/Bouchard.
im posing a counter point that cannot be forgotten. Oilers could not make the final jump due to defending.
Do they need more points from Bouchard? Or can they sacrifice some points for a better defender?
Which one improves the team more?
@AdamMcVicar
NEW: Calgary Flames name Craig Conroy as General Manager.
David Nonis to serve as Senior VP of Hockey Operations and Assistant GM.
Brad Pascall named VP of Hockey Operations and Assistant GM
Chris Snow will be VP Data/Analytics and Assistant GM.
Net result is Treliving out Nonis in
One would think Conroy has some original ideas and will be able to implement them.
Hopefully he has spent the last several years learning the difference between Cap Hit and actual salary per year.
He commented publicly at the time about the “lack of value” of Comrade Horcov’s $7 million contract ($5 million cap hit) which seemed very rude (as a fellow NHLPA member) and also very incorrect.
Interesting.
Horcoff’s cap hit was actually $5.5 milllion.
The exactly the same cap hit as Philip Danault is today.
Only thing is Horcoff signed that contract in 2009.
The cap has increased just a little in the past 14 years so the value of that contract might be questionable.
The point was he kept referring to him as a $7 million dollar player. Didn’t scream GM material at the time. Also, highly unprofessional to comment on other players contracts…can’t think of a lot of other examples where this happened publicly..
That was a very long time ago and he was not in management.
No comment on the second post of him flapping his gums last year when he WAS in management?
And perhaps more importantly, as it’s clearly germaine to the conversation, would Philip Danault have said it?
Danault is vert outspoken but who knows what questions he might be asked.
A more nuanced take from people who actually know these people.
https://theathletic.com/4545180/2023/05/23/calgary-flames-craig-conroy-gm/?source=user_shared_article
There is also this fine article:
https://calgaryhockeynow.com/2022/02/23/calgary-flames-agm-craig-conroy-johnny-gaudreau-contract/
In which he guarantees a signed Johnny Hockey. He also describes himself as the “Santa Claus” of giving out contracts cause he gives away too much.
I’m liking this signing more and more….
I was wondering when or where Nonis would pop up…
I would imagine he will focus mainly on cap management.
You always imagine a lot of things :)…
Just looking.
Staios’s first 2 seasons with the Oilers. Age 28 and 29:
01-02 73 5-5-10 +10 18:05 TOI
02-03 76 5-21-26 +13 22:17 TOI
Ceci’s first 2 seasons with the Oilers. Age 27 and 28:
21-22 78 5-23-28 +8 20:54 TOI
22-23 80 1-14-15 +11 20:08 TOI
I appreciate that this is a post about Ceci not being good enough. And he’s also more expensive than Staios was (though not by as much as you’d think given era).
Still, that’s a fairly striking similarity in boxcars and role.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think it was a post about Ceci being poor.
I think it was a joke about Staios the (future) GM searching for Staios the (past) player and how remarkable that would be.
But maybe not…
Boxcars aside, Staios was one of my favourite players of that era. Steady Steve. When he was on the ice you knew that he’d make the right choices. There were few errors of execution, and fewer still in judgement.
Having a modern Staios would be a godsend to this team.
I know everyone is in love with the Ekholm/Bouch pairing – of course, they are, so am I, that pairing was fire.
At the same time, I have alot of time for Nurse/Bouch and Ekholm/Broberg.
I think the coaching staff will continue to rely on Nurse for more TOI vs. elites than Ekholm – that’s the history and lets not forget Ekholm is turning 33 – managing his load through the regular season wouldn’t be the worst suggestion.
In time, I think Broberg will be able to play those big and tough minutes but maybe its time for Broberg to get some Swedish mentoring and Bouch to take that next step responsibility wise.
I did see (at least in my opinion), Bouchard take steps forward in physicality, intensity/urgency, general defensive responsibility and positioning, etc. as the season and playoffs went on. He is one of the best on the team at defending zone entries (per the numbers at least) which may be a match for Nurse (who isn’t, by the numbers).
One thing I am certain on, Bouch should get a TON of McDavid minutes at 5 on5.
Agree with this completely … if Bouchard wants the big contract, he’s got to prove that he can handle the elites. They should run Nurse-Bouchard at the start of the season to find out where he’s at in his development.
I think both Broberg and Desharnais could benefit from the Ekholm defenseman finishing school.
Broberg already has had lots of Swedish mentoring, including 2 years in the Swedish Elite League. Arguably, he needs North American mentoring from Nurse.
I have no problem of Broberg with Ekholm. I just don’t like Bouchard with Nurse. And I think Broberg is a much better fit for Nurse than Bouchard. Nurse has always had to compensate for his D partner’s limitations. Broberg has no limitations except experience. Nurse won’t have to compensate for Bear/Barrie’s size and speed, or Bouchard’s slow defensive reaction time, or Ceci’s mobility.
One would hope that Bouchard’s slow reaction time (lack of danger sense) will improve with more repetition and added responsibility. I don’t think anyone believes that Bouchard should be stapled to Nurse all season long, but it would be wise to see just how well he can handle the hard minutes before signing him to a huge extension.
But why do that, when Broberg has the better skill set to do that with Nurse.
Bouchard should never be put on a shutdown pair. He defines an offensive D that is going to drive an outscoring pair.
Nurse is a shutdown defender.
One is incredibly obtuse if one is trying to pair them. Unless on has three proven first pair quality shutdown D. The Oilers have perhaps two in Nurse and Ekblom, and a possible 3rd in Broberg, but that is what one has to find out. Nurse is the shutdowniest shutdown type, so he should be the last option for Bouchard, who is the outscoring outscoriest.
Nurse has been the best 5 on 5 performer on this team for years and, as we know, near the top of the league over time. Of course, there are many McDavid minutes in there but others have many McDavid minutes and don’t produce like that.
There is zero doubt that a Nurse/Bouchard pair would see many McDavid minutes and score many many goals for the Oilers, right?
Yeah, probably time to update that (checks).
Nurse is 9th in even strength among Dmen over the past 5 seasons.
FWIW, Nurse is also currently tied for 12th strength points the last 2 playoff seasons. Tied with Bouchard, and surprisingly Ceci too.
Implement a system players can actually perform and he’ll be ok. Even Ek declined from coming over because of the chaos and missed things
Only 12 minutes in the playoffs together at 5 on 5 but Nurse/Bouchard were straight fire on all metrics except goals (50%) to the tune of 85% plus expected goals (backed up by possession/shot metrics).
They were also 57% goals and near 70% expected goals in apx 130 minutes this season.
The prior season, they played alot together – killed on goals but that was getting PDO’d as they were dominant in possession/shot/expected goals.
From 7 minutes of research on NST and PuckIQ – the Nurse/Bouchard pair has had real success.
Score effects when the Oilers were behind.
Except, no, that’s not the case.
Its like you just stated that, hoping it was true to prove your point. I clicked a few buttons and the when tied and when leading stats for that due are very similar to the overall numbers.
Great analysis … small sample size, albeit.
I think you want to know what you really have with Bouchard before you commit to long term dollars. You’re not going to know what you have until Bouchard is playing elites with Nurse.
Great that he looks good playing next to Ekholm … every single one of our RD would look improved next to Ekholm. The real test is whether Bouchard can sustain his play away from Ekholm.
Also … Broberg playing with Nurse on the first pairing when he couldn’t even crack the third pairing is unrealistic right now.
Maybe the next Oilers general manager can find the next Steve Staios. That would be a helluva story.
This is where you need a stats department. To find the next Steve S out of the haystack
This could be true but I don’t think its a certainty. Ryan Rishaug, for example, has opined that the Oilers could get something in the range of a 3rd round pick back for Yamamoto.
I’m not so sure I agree with Ryan on this one (and he doesn’t always seems to factor in all analysis points, that is, the cap hit along with the value on the ice and the integration) but I can see him being moved without a sweetener. Puljujarvi was in his last season, later in the season, of course, but still.
I agree that Cody Ceci has been asked to bat above his natural spot in the order. He has a long history of play a solid amount vs. elites (with success) but what Manson and Woody have asked him to do is a bit excessive.
I would note, via PuckIQ, and as LT partially alluded to, Ceci and Nurse, and Ceci without Nurse, won the goal share vs. elites this past season. That pairing also won their minutes vs. mid tier comp (goal share). Their issue was they got killed against the grits. Its odd but the elite comp minutes weren’t the issue for that pairing this season.
At the same time, this season long groin issue he dealt with was likely a major factor in his performance this past season and playoffs. We saw with our own eyes diminished mobility. I look for his to be much more “consistent” and “solid” with full health next season, more along the lines of his 2021/22 season.
I think this player is becoming the most over-rated target out there – at least among Oilers fans. There are projections out there for a contract with a cap hit start with a 6, for term.
This is similar to, say, Soucy, and the “is the grass always greener”? – Are either of those players actual upgrades on Ceci. I would say that Soucy is absolutely not. Perhaps Severson is but not at the cap hit he’s likely to require.
Gudas, again, similar – he’d be a nice player to have in the Deharnais role but he is not a top 4 at this stage of his career and NOT an upgrade on Ceci, right?
If Athanasiou was 2 seconds for scoring two seasons prior surely Kailer is moveable for less for scoring more recently
Also disagree with LT … moving out Yamo will not cost a sweetener, though finding the right dance partner may require the kind of patience that Holland has, and the fan base does not.
Didn’t know about Ceci’s groin injury … that certainly casts a different light on his struggles this season. It’s hard to just walk, nevermind play huge minutes against elite competition.
Ceci isn’t bad when healthy on 1st pair he’s just not good. He can do most things but isn’t great at anything. That’s not a 1 pair guy. Can he be upgraded? Probably not from without
Not without a sizeable increase in the cap this summer, though if Holland and co are able to manage the cap gymnastics well next season, then they may accrue enough cap space to get an upgrade at the deadline.
A.A is close to being a elite skater. What is it that a G.M of a team would find attractive when it comes to Yamamoto and his 3.1 contract? Since Holland doesn’t have any sweeteners to burn Yamamoto will be Bought Out.
And a marginal NHL player. Yama plays hockey pretty well in many facets. He’s shown he can score. He has more to recommend than AA
Take your glasses off and pretend your a G.M. Would you have 135 pound brink handed forward in your top 6. I know, I know he’s a good guy but so is my Neighbour’s kid when he comes out of the basement once a week for a walk around the block.
If you had 6 McDavids on your team but no Bobrovsky you’d probably still lose.
The Oilers still need a goalie.
If you had 6 McDavids, the cap hit would be 75 million dollars. You’d have around 10 million to flush out the rest of the roster.
By Bobrovsky, I take it to mean “random goalie who goes on an unsustainable heater during the playoffs, and then crashes back down to earth the next season.”
5 of the 6 McDavids will be on permanent ELC’s.
Six McDs on ELCs would be a good time to go all-in lol.
I bet you could turn one of those McDavid’s into a pretty good goalie, who would handle the puck at an elite level.
To me the other team would never have the puck. He’d be playing at his level times 5, 5 skaters. No waiting for mere mortals to catch up to his feet hands and brains
I think of Cody Ceci, and I wonder if Vinny Desharnais has already past him on the depth chart. Ideally for the Oil I could see them signing a player like Severson or Mayfield or Demelo to play with Nurse on the second pair in free agency and move Ceci down to play with Kulak on the third pair. But the question is? Is he any better than Desharnais & Broberg at this point of his career. Heck they could even try Kulak with Nurse and go with Broberg/Ceci & Desharnais
as the third pair and just continue with the seven D already in place, there’re plenty of combinations until something shakes loose. But Holland likes to put his team together in the summer and make whatever adjustments are required during the season. That’s his story and he’s sticking to it.
imo: This season the play of a rookie Vinnie didn’t come close to
matching that of an injured Ceci. Maybe growth/decline evens that out, but I’d be surprised if it happens next season.
Vincent Deharnais played 14.5% of his TOI vs. elites during the regular season (and 51% against the dregs).
Cody Ceci played 37% of his TOI last year vs. elites – with a 60% goals share – while playing with an injured groin.
No, Deharnais has not passed Ceci on the depth chart.
Georges Laraque was right to blame the season on Jack Campbell. The worst part is that Campbell’s play spiked right before the deadline, then plummeted, leaving the torrid stretch run and playoffs to be entirely Skinner’s responsibility.
The coaches did not trust Jack Campbell from March onward. Even as Skinner struggled Woodcroft only used the backup as a comeback motivator, not a starter. No way, Jack.
How much bounce-back in ‘23-‘24 is required of Campbell to trust him to start a playoff game? Can we all agree the “bar” now set for Campbell is to provide 25-30 games of backup goalering? How much should that cost?
It was posed yesterday the Oilers could save $3.6M x 2 yrs on the cap buying out Campbell. Indeed they pay for it on the back end, but at that point you’re talking about a $95 – $100M cap.
If you’re buying out Jack you’re talking about going long on your RFA’s, AND adding a $6M defenseman or winger.
George Laraque is no genius.
Nope. Laraque nailed it.
Campbell put the Oilers in an awful spot this year, in the playoffs having to rely on a rookie and having no safe backup plan.
Walk the plank, Jack.
He still won 21 of 36 games that he played in this past season, then was more than solid backup during the playoffs. That should be enough to earn another look next season.
While I’m not of the opinion that it makes sense to buy-out Campbell — he’ll very likely be better this upcoming year than last — I don’t put too much stock in his won / lost record.
Campbell received an unsustainable level of run support in those wins — the Oilers won those games despite their goaltender because of the volume of goals they scored.
Campbell did in fact put the Oilers in an awful situation — he let in far too many stoppable shots, making it hard to rely on him even when he performed well as a backup.
He needs to put in a consistent performance for extended periods of time before he can be trusted in a starting role again.
Skinner’s issue was that the other teams’ goaltenders out-performed him — they stole games, and stopped more high-end scoring chances than he did.
Campbell’s issue was that he was below NHL replacement-level for much of the season.
Good teams can overcome one of those if they play well enough, but not the other.
George is trying to get clicks it doesn’t take a Brain Surgeon to figure this out.
Basically you can tie a Campbell buyout to a long-term deal for Evan Bouchard.
8-years of Campbell buyout for a max-term deal for your top RFA D.
It was going to be over $8.5M for the pair this year anyway … if you get EB for around $6M you win over the back half of that contract big time.
I would have more time for this thought exercise if Skinner was even average in the playoffs. Not that I think Campbell bounces back to be a legit starter, but if you shift that money to Bouchard as you say, who is the other goalie?
It can’t be someone unproven since Skinner didn’t show an ability to rise to the occasion. I think he will but that’s a huge risk for a Stanley Cup or bust team to go into the year with Skinner/Dirt cheap backup
Lack of confidence in Campbell was one factor. But I think some of the playoff decisions were based on loyalty to Skinner for giving the team a Calder trophy type year
The Oilers are not buying out Campbell. Have you ever heard of a sophomore jinx? Before you annoit Skinner the next Saviour half his starts in the playoffs we’re a dogs breakfast. All the people calling Bobrovsky the worst contract in Hockey are now saying how great he is and how the Coach should of stuck with him more when he was going through his funk. Woody was a numbskull for not starting Campbell in game 6-7 this decision might of cost us a 6th Cup.
I was all happy to see Lucic finally come off of the books then James Neil waved hello.
The secret trick to buyouts is to not use the new found money to immediately sign another boat anchor.
Crazy thought for a full NMC trade is: Nurse+Campbell to the Sharks for Karlsson+Kahkonen, nothing retained either side…
Nurse has a no movement clause until June 1, 2027
That is crazy. Karlsson is 33 coming off an offensive outlier and at best meh at defence. His contract is long and crazy expensive. He is Boaty McBoatanchor very soon and does not fit the profile of what we are needing right now. Need better goal suppression, so good defending, puck retrieval and puck moving are key, in my mind.
Jack’s MO is streaks of brilliant and bad. He’ll probably keep on keeping on
Which is why it was a poor signing. The term is the main problem. He was going to get the cap hit but probably not 5 nor was he really in a spot to command it
5 Years
Considering the reality of Campbell’s contract tenure, recent performance and current trade value , the way forward is clear to me.
We will be keeping him this year, with an eye to possibly increasing his trade value so we can shift G dollars to another area perhaps as early as the trade deadline, but likely for the 2024/25 season. If he can revert to the mean and Skinner continues to develop, 5M cap is too much for a 1b/backup. If he recovers, we can shoulder te load this year as we are not spending excessively on Goalies compared to our peers, but the opportunity exists for the next three seasons to move to an appropriately priced backup and free up considerable cash to use elsewhere.
I’d say the chances of Campbell rehabilitating his play to have his contact become moveable are slim.
For me it’s about finding a more reliable backup for $2M and putting the remaining amount towards a more productive use.
The cap will be much higher next summer, so this move helps bridge the Oilers to more payroll flexibility for this- and next season.
Georges was/is also down on Petry and others. Not sure where’s he’s coming from sometimes.
No, I don’t think we can agree that 25-30 games of back-up tending is the bar.
I anticipate something more along the lines of a 45-37 game split and, as of now, I couldn’t tell you who plays the 45 and/or who starts game 1.
Skinner has the “upper leg” going in to camp but this is likely a pure competition off the bat.
I expect Campbell to bounce way back. No I don’t “expect” the .921 he’s had before but I don’t expect a sub .890. I expect something in the .910 range but he could surpass that, as he’s done more than one in his career.
In this scenario, how much are you paying for a high quality backup who can play more if Skinner’s season was a mirage? Close to 2 million? So how much are you actually saving per year when you factor that in?
Look at Vegas
They have a $5 million starter who didn’t play a game for them
They had a rookie who carried them for most of the season, and a career backup who stayed their playoffs.
They traded for a vet at the deadline and now won a series and are leading another with their 3rd stringer.
To answer your question: Oilers need to be flexible. Skinner gets the net and hopefully someone (Campbell or otherwise) will need to challenge him.
Last year Campbell failed badly. If he does again that’s a $5M lesson this year. If you cut bait now and replace him with eg. Adin Hill at $2M, you still have $1.6M of flex dollars to upgrade a position. You can run that tandem through the regular season and augment for the playoffs if needed.
Being stuck going into the playoffs without a reliable #2 is hugely problematic.
What you are suggesting isn’t about “flexibility” but more the opposite, creating a material dead cap charge for 8 years.
There is absolutely nothing to say that this unknown replacement back-up will out perform Campbell next season – maybe he does, but maybe he doesn’t. I can be somewhat confidant that Jack Campbell will have better career numbers than any tender signed for that amount. Adding in a material dead cap charge for 8 years seems like quite the payment to maybe/possibly upgrade the 1B tender and have $1.6MM.
The $5MM starter that didn’t play a game for the Knights is a non-factor. That’s akin to saying the Oilers had a top pairing d-man at $4.1MM that didn’t play a game, right?
Great thread. I had though yesterday that I was the only one wondering why we don’t buyout Campbell.
Last year, if Campbell had even played at replacement level, we would have won the Western conference and Skinner could have had more rest towards the playoffs.
If Campbell doesn’t rebound and he’s not bought out, there’s zero flexibility to get a replacement unless he gets put on LTIR.
Given Campbell’s close-out of the season, he redeemed himself enough and will not be bought out. He appears to still be a viable option, despite his extremely poor stretch in Feb-March.
Besides, a buy-out is not wise when Capspace is so valuable. I hope this team never has to buy anyone out in the next 5 years.
Also Campbell is 69-15-12 over the last 3 seasons. That is an 82% winning percentage.
What are you paying for that in Free Agency?
Of all the names LT listed I’d have time for Tanev. He was most likely the one player traded that spun the Canucks out of control and they never recovered from losing him. He is a good defensman and apparently was the glue in the room for the Pacific team. He’s been good with the Flames *spits, but I do wonder about his health.
Would love Tanev, but the chances of getting him would be slim.
Doubt Conroy would want his first trade to be a potential helping hand to Edmonton…
Tanev is very good and always injured
It it Broberg time. At the trade deadline, evaluate where you are. The OIlers can run with the current seven D to the trade deadline, and see if another Ekholm emerges from the ether unexpectedly.
It would be a mistake to bring Yamamoto back. He is too damned likeable and admirable, but clearly not good enough. He would take minutes away from Holloway, Kostin, Lavoie, Philp etc. It is time to move on.
I think our D and G are set for next year. Just move them around for best fit. However, I would nail Broberg and Ekholm together. Yes, Broberg needs to play right side. Ceci plays with Kulak with Des as 7th D.
Great point.
Kailer is a great kid. But we can’t trust Woody to keep playing him in the top 6
Definitely time to move on…and as I posted a few months ago- I still cannot believe neither JP or Kailer made a big impact.
This org. is ( almost ) desperate to have Holloway hit in some fashion now.
Agreed on both.
This was the case last year at this time with Broberg.
I remained consistent all year long (and in to the playoffs) that he should be playing nightly, and real minutes.
Once Vinny came in and established himself as a player with a presence that could make an impact, I acknowledged that Vinny also needed to play but continued to believe that Broberg should play nightly.
I think Bro can move up quickly but he’s 21 and not able to protect himself well yet and gets hurt. Maybe top 4 coach trusted if he gets enough at bats after 82 (hopefully) I think he’ll do it but not out of the chute next season
I was golfing yesterday, just saw the deluge of downvotes — the hallmark of any well received post, thank you kindly for your patronage — for my Dubas as an advisor suggestion.
Some comically bad responses, had me rolling on the floor — although you should be embarrassed, if you were indeed serious — chief among them:
1) Signing Tavares is equivalent to signing Lucic.
2) Dubas is as bad as Chiarelli.
lol
Tavares is a first line level player while Lucic rapidly deteriorated into a replacement level player.
Chiarelli traded Eberle for nothing, Hall for Larsson, good picks for Reinhart, etc. It was legitimately frightening when the Oilers made any move. He tried to fix the Oilers D with Brandon Manning. That’s like patching dry wall with a sledge hammer. The man is deranged!
Dubas built a team that is top 5 in the NHL in the regular season over five years.
I’ve said it before: if you have to make things up to win an argument, you’ve already lost.
Here’s another hint that Dubas isn’t Chiarelli: Fenway group, an owner with a history of success and an analytics bent, halted their process when Dubas became available.
I don’t recall similar with Chiarelli.
I know we are in the habit of making up observations about players we don’t like. Now we do it for execs we don’t like.
LT’s blog, great fan fiction in the comments, Harry Potter / Twilight / Game of Thrones / Star Wars – esque, really. At least the author is anchored to reality.
But do carry on!
Dubas isn’t Chiarelli but he is far from perfect. The Tavares signing was bad and I would say is as bad or worse than the nurse contract. He built a team with not enough grit in his top end and it resulted in a team that couldn’t make it anywhere in the playoffs. Grit in your bottom players that only play 10 minutes of the game doesn’t do much for the other 50
As one of those who likens Dubas to Chiarelli I’ll grant you that his teams had a better record over time in the regular season, resulting in more playoff appearances.
But that’s not the prize you’re playing for.
Both of them made critical mistakes in cap management that resulted in a severe depletion of assets. Diablo did a great job listing each move that Dubas made that cost them in yesterday’s thread so I won’t list them here, but they were significant and helped do him in.
That Toronto had a deeper roster to overcome the worst of the excess is apparent, but winning 1 playoff round in his year’s is not something to be proud of, and it’s the same number of playoff rounds the Oilers won under Chiarelli.
Chiarelli didn’t learn from his mistakes in Boston. He repeated them in Edmonton. Perhaps the analogy is a trifle over the top, but at the end of the day, it’s valid. For Dubas the trick will be what he learns from his mistakes.
As one of the people who responded to your post … yes, he is Chiarelli bad, and I stand by that. The Leafs are now in a really bad spot after Dubas mortgaged over a half decade of picks … looking forward they only have 5 picks in the next three years in rounds 1-4! They are also completely capped out, and the only thing they can do is trade Nylander or Marner … but they only have till July 1 to do so, so the next GM is already going to be working with less leverage. You NEVER win the deal when you are trading the best player with handicapped leverage. The Leafs are about to come crashing back to the rest of the pack, much like the Flames did when they traded Tkachuk …. no wonder they are looking at Treliving as their next GM.
Yes, we’re looking back retrospectively at Dubas … but that comes with the job … it’s really incredible to me that people think Dubas is some sort of boy genius NHL GM. He lost nearly every trade that he made, did a poor job at managing the cap, drafted poorly and burned all of Toronto’s draft picks till 2025, all so they could win 1 playoff round since 2018. He also made things “all about Dubas” at that bizarre press conference, which is ultimately why Shanny fired him. None of this is “made up”.
Dubas is a very good self-promoter, and not a very good NHL GM. He tried to accelerate the Leaf’s window to win, by trading first round picks for rentals. He signed Tavares to a contract that everyone knew was going to look bad in the last 3-4 years, and handicap their ability to sign their top players, the day it was signed (much like Chia signing Lucic). He then took a look at the disaster he’s made of that organization and said that all of this has been really hard on his family.
Pathetic.
But keep swooning over your pretty boy wannabe genius NHL GM. For me, guys like Dubas and Chayka are cautionary tales about hiring 30 year old self-promoters to the big chair. I really hope that the Fenwick group hires Dubas – it’s always good to have an easy mark running an NHL team.
His close friend described Dubas as over confident and ambitious in an article somewhere if anyone cares to look for if
To me your detailed list surrounded it all. Like many young folk full of ideas and drive but not always the aware of the serenity prayer – the knowing the things you can change part especially
Pretty hard to reinvent the league (stats make me know more and different) as it is with what is very limited industry experience comparatively. Most league execs aren’t throwbacks just because a few are. Dellow himself said so
You have to know where the gaps are to gain any advantage. There aren’t many left. I think once a roster isn’t sub standard the rest is building team cohesiveness and personal sacrifice. The coaches have to put a system in place that will work and the rest is motivating mentality
Holland has greatly improved that for us. We’ll see where the coaches grow. I put Maurice up as my evidence. Whom I didn’t see much in but it seems there’s a lot of bad juju in the Peg
I skipped past the conversation on “Dubas as an advisor”, not because it would be a fantastic hire, but because it seems completely out of the realm of reasonableness.
Dubas is no longer the GM of the Leafs largely due to the financial counter-offer he presented. I don’t see there person coming from General Manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs to advisor to the Edmonton Oilers.
Dubas will have many options for GM and high end executive roles when he wishes.
Eberle was not traded for nothing – he was traded for Strome and, frankly, in the 2-3 years following the trade, Strome was the more valuable player, in particular if one factors in cap hit. Usage in Edmonton was mind-boggling.
Strome was indeed traded for nothing……..
Ceci has a favourable cap hit. If he recovers from injury that’s good value for a 2nd pair shutdown.
If he can’t hack it there are a few deadline upgrade options like DeMelo or Pionk.
When it comes to these players a lot boils down to whether they’re healthy or not.
Six months ago I had suggested Edmondson as a 2LD upgrade.
Another one
Marcus Pettersson
Pettersson played less than 30 percent against elites and had a poorer DFF percentage than Ceci.
Interesting.
Don’t think NJ would give him up but
Jonas Siegenthaler
That’s the problem with many listed. They’re already valued by their current team.
So I guess the first question to ask should be who has excess depth on RD and/or is facing a squeeze that may make someone available? All else is moot if we don’t parse out probable trade partners. Everyone who has what we want will want to keep them for themselves if they can as well, in general. Who is facing pressure to make a move?
Shorten the list of stores we are shopping in, as it were, to those most likely to be amenable to a deal, then look at the available stock. No need to waste out time chasing rainbows. Which teams fit this criterion? NJ? LA?