Klim Kostin is a fascinating player. He’s 24, 6.03, 215, and has just completed the season that should allow him to enjoy a successful NHL career through the end of the decade (or close). He’s a big man with skill. How unique is he in Oilers history?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers 2022-23 predictions revisited
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why playoff experience for Oilers rookies is an important building block
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- DNB: The Oilers are out of the playoffs and there’s plenty of blame to go around
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Matvey Petrov and his possible future
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- DNB: Why Oilers’ Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combo is the ultimate luxury: ‘It’s magic’
- Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
PREVIOUS KOSTINS
Numbers remind us of previous numbers, and in examining Kostin’s five-on-five totals in 2022-23, I was reminded of two former Oilers who had success at about the same age. Curtis Glencross and Tyler Pitlick scored their points in the seasons above from the depth lines, allowing Edmonton to have real success when the top units were at rest.
Kostin had the best linemates in this group of three wingers at the top of the list. He played most often (even strength) with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Mattias Janmark. Glencross had Kyle Brodziak and Zack Stortini as his most common even-strength linemates, Pitlick had Anton Lander and Mark Letestu.
Both Glencross and Pitlick were lost after these seasons, as Glencross signed with the Calgary Flames because the Oilers wouldn’t budge on contract negotiations. Flames GM Darryl Sutter said at the time “our philosophy going into the draft and through this period was to get younger, quicker and bigger on the wings.” Edmonton lost Pitlick because he got hurt and the club couldn’t get him in enough games to avoid Group 6 free agency.
Can you see the Oilers losing Kostin in a similar fashion? I expect the answer is yes.
A couple of points beyond Kostin and his comparables. I posted Dustin Penner’s numbers in the same year as Kostin, both to show Glencross having a superior season and to point out the scoring (and outscoring) when playing on the high skill lines is more difficult. If we use Natural Stat Trick’s line tool, we can see what happened in 2007-08 when Glencross and Penner were at work with their most common linemates.
- Glencross-Brodziak-Stortini: 151 mins, 11-5 goals (69 pct), 56 pct expected goals, 4.36 goals-60
- Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky: 309 mins, 20-11 goals (65 pct), 53 pct expected goals, 3.88 goals-60
These are two strong lines from 2007-08, Craig MacTavish had a real gift for finding things that worked five-on-five. Glencross had a better year than Dustin Penner, or at least his 26 games were better at five-on-five. Penner didn’t score much at five-on-five that season, and his linemates on the top line were delivering plenty. Here are the five-on-five pts-60 for Edmonton Oilers forwards that season:
- Curtis Glencross 2.99
- Shawn Horcoff 2.42
- Robert Nilsson 2.40
- Andrew Cogliano 2.30
- Alex Hemsky 2.24
- Sam Gagner 1.99
- Kyle Brodziak 1.98
- Geoff Sanderson 1.67
- Fernando Pisani 1.49
- Zack Stortini 1.37
- Dustin Penner 1.31
- Marc Pouliot 1.3
- Marty Reasoner 1.29
- Ethan Moreau 1.25
- Raffi Torres 1.24
- Patrick Thoresen 1.05
- Jarret Stoll 0.70
- Jean-Francois Jacques 0.00
It’s a fascinating look at a team that won 41 games and finished six points shy of the playoffs. Penner, Raffi Torres and Jarret Stoll were shy offensively at five-on-five, but the kids (Robert Nilsson, Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner) had real firepower. Of course the Gagner line had a 44 percent goal share (Stoll line 34 percent) and the team was headed nowhere happy. Let’s look at this year’s team, knowing that Nuge, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman were facing elites most often:
- Connor McDavid 2.71
- Leon Draisaitl 2.41
- Zach Hyman 2.37
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.14
- Warren Foegele 2.09
- Klim Kostin 2.02
- Evander Kane 1.96
- Ryan McLeod 1.86
- Nick Bjugstad 1.67
- Kailer Yamamoto 1.53
- Mattias Janmark 1.40
- Devin Shore 1.34
- Dylan Holloway 1.20
- Jesse Puljujarvi 1.18
This is a team with enormous riches, and 97/29 drive tremendous results. Hyman, Nuge and Kane appear set and we’ll see if the organization moves away from Kailer Yamamoto.
Signing Kostin isn’t close to the top priority on the team, and if the ask is too dear then Edmonton will need to step away. One hopes the gap is small and that the Oilers don’t make this another Glencross moment.
One final question: Is Kostin a more talented offensive player than Yamamoto? He scored more but did it against lesser opposition. I’d sign Kostin, even if the price is a little high. We wait.
New for The Athletic: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
https://theathletic.com/4555638/2023/05/27/oilers-draft-2023-agitator/
Five the the top 6 forwards are vets and there is no issue at all giving a big fast young guy who can shoot and hit a run. The cost to sign Kostin for 2 years is modest and it could be a massive value contract. Upgrading internally or at the deadline is always possible if Kostin doesn’t work out.
Kane. (5.125) McD (12.5) Hyman (5.5)
RNH (5.125) Drai (8.5) Kostin (1.5)
Top 6 total = 38.25
Bottom 6 has a mix of vets and kids as is necessary. I want to keep Bjugstad under 2 million. I have a feeling he might want to stay and finish off his career trying for a SC.
Foegle (2.75) McLeod (1.5) Bjugstad (1.5)
Holloway (.925) Ryan (1.0). Brown (1)
Lavoie (.85)
Bottom 7 total = 9.525
No need to trade Ceci – he will be healthy and will improve by playing him on the 2nd pair with Ekholm in a defensive role. Nurse and Bouchard gt the offensive push. Comes down to the final cap whether we can afford Kulak. He’s a nice luxury as a #5 dman. But we have Broberg and would probably have a million left over to find a veteran #7 if we trade Kulak.
Nurse (9.25) Bouchard (4.0)
Ekholm (6) Ceci (3.25)
Kulak (2.75). Broberg (.863) Desharnais (.762)
Defense total = 26.875
Campbell (5) Skinner (2.6)
Goalies total = 7.6
Team Total = 82.25
Neal Buy-out = 1.92
Grand total = 84.17
Kulak status depends on final cap number. Yamomoto and Kulak are tradable for draft assets which we can use to improve playoff depth at the trade deadline.
There is this tick amongst the group that Bgustadt is going to cost an astronomical amount. $2 million is INSANE for a guy with no upside. He’s coming off back to back $900k contracts and played very poorly in the playoffs.
Why are people worried about having to pay this guy double? If you’re nice he gets the Ryan contract. If you’re mean he’s under $1 million. Anything more and you let him walk and the team is none the worse for it.
Bjugstad scored 17 goals last season. He CAN player center and take face-offs. He CAN penalty kill. He s far from consistent but has shown to be a solid 2-way player in stretches. He’s prime career.
His past contracts were based off past performance and this contract will be primarily based off of this past season’s performance, no?
17 goals is 17 goals and that is likely worth $1.75MM, or more, on the market.
He’ll need to take a pretty significant discount to stay.
You’re too sentimental with your contracts. He’s 30 and needed the rebuilding Coyotes to off him $900k last year. He has no value league wide. He’ll be discounted with the Oiler scoring escalator and then everyone will point out his horrid defensive play in the playoffs. This one is easy.
He gets the Ryan deal if he’s lucky.
You’ll be upset when Kenny grinds McLeod again…
I don’t see tea $850K of bonus overage on your cap calculations….?
True that – Kulak probably goes for a pick next year which we can cash at the deadline.
I dont think Yamamoto is draft tradable asset at that price tag.
He’s arbitration eligible after next year so qualify is what? 3.5 million?
With the smallest type bump in cap, wingers are still going to get the squeeze again next year and there are a lot of competitive teams who will be begging for wiggle room.
Rather than attach asset his minimal buyout impact makes this the more likeky route IMO. 2.7 million dollars next year gets you a Derek ryan and a janmark with some pocket change. I’m a fan of yam but I think he’s simply a victim of circumstance now that ekholm’s contract is stacked in equation.
NHL playing aging curves have long been a topic I’ve followed. The impact of survivorship bias has long been an issue.
For example, if you look at stats for goalies over 30 who’re playing, the results won’t look too bad because you’ll only see the stats for goalies who’re still good enough to keep playing. Typically these are elite goalies since they generally age better than non-elite goalies.
Micah Blake Mccurdy published this late last year, but I just recently found it. It accounts for this survivorship bias.
link
Basically look at the line typically in the middle.
He has the decline for goalies starting at 28. This is why the smart teams target under 30 goalies mostly.
Interesting stuff.
The tricky bit is finding the goalies who are able to step into prime time while young.
For every Otter and Knight, there are scores of Deslauriers and Laurikainens that litter the farm systems of every NHL team.
I remember when Askarov was the next bonafide prodigy, haven’t heard a whiff about him since his draft. And it’s not like NSH isn’t known for their prowess in drafting/developing goalies.
Absolutely. I’m no scout, but as a causal fan of the game, I can see that the name of the stores to shop at are called “Washington Capitals” and “New York Rangers.”
Who are this year’s Samsanov and Georgiev?
Aden Hill!?
One thing I can’t figure out… Holland’s credo had three rules as a GM.
From these rules, we have Holland’s method of extracting cap efficiency.
Kevin Lankinen? Connor Ingram?
The NHL has changed dramatically in recent years with extreme value being found in second contracts coming out of ELCs.
As the aging curves you posted clearly show, betting on older players is almost doomed to failure unless those bets are on the truly elite players whose skills are sufficient to hedge those bets.
The chances of Holland’s bets on Nuge, Hyman, Kane, Nurse, Ekholm and Campbell paying off are very time limited and very risky due to NMCs.
Of course, you have to have the young studs in the system and you need to have the wherewithal to separate the wheat from the chaff very early on.
Holland doubled down on Jesse and Yamamoto and is now paying the price while the team’s handling of Bouchard could well result in a contract that pays him huge dollars just as he starts to decline.
The Nuge, Hyman, and Kane contracts are absolutely in the buy now, pay later category. I don’t have a problem with these contracts conceptually (outside of the Soup contract) but the GM has to know the window probably closes when enough of them age out. There’s too much cap to retool on the fly.
A more agile GM maybe wouldn’t have so many over 30 contracts on players in key spots on the lineup, but it was the best you could expect for a GM that doesn’t make trades.
Holland broke his third rule with the Campbell contract and he’s paying for it.
Holland got *creative* in the first round three years running and there’s no elite talent pushing. Earlier on in his tenure, Holland was giving away draft picks like Oprah Windfrey.
It’s hard to applaud Holland for how he’s managed the Bouchard and Nurse contracts. Most GMs stopped bringing key players after the Subban contract lesson.
I won’t reply until tomorrow, but I’m curious if you prefer the 5-6 year, 90% of UFA price, 2nd deals given to players like Matthews, Makar, Marner and Hughes to the bridge deals that Nurse and Bouchard got/will get.
I think it’s a difficult comparison to make. Mathews and Marner are both superstar forwards that were elite right out of the box, in their first year in the NHL.
A such, they had way more leverage than Nurse and Bouchard.
You certainly never want a star forward like Mathews headed to free agency at age 26. Since you risk losing him early. That’s a potential disaster though compared to Nurse, if Mathews signs another 8 contract with Toronto, you do shave off two years from the wrong side of it since it expires when he’s younger.
Bouchard and Nurse have taken time to develop as defensemen. The Oilers squeezed Nurse for a few RFA years, but are getting touched in value now plus he’s signed until the end of time.
Oddly enough, Tambellini was the trailblazer, from what I recall with the three Steven Austin contracts. Wasn’t seven years the max at the time? For a terrible GM, he got those contracts right though some felt it took Nuge time to grow into his contract.
Chiarelli absolutely nailed it with the 8 year pacts for Draisaitl and McDavid though many complained at the time about Draisaitl’s cap hit compared to Pastranak at the time.
So yeah, I like the 8 year term better for second contracts on elite players compared to Mathews and Marner’s contracts.
The Bouchard contract is going to be difficult either way. Offensive defensemen absolutely get paid, often far too much for the overall value of their contributions. You can see why Holland tried to keep him off PP1 for as long as he could.
Yeah that’s pretty fair.
The years under control and age at expiry are obviously important factors, but I feel like bridge vs. long term is often a question of when you spend the money more than how much. That’s not always true of course, but I think the total $ number teams pay a player in each scenario is closer than commonly assumed.
By the end of his current contract Nurse will have been under contract (post ELC) for 12 years at an average cap hit of $7.633M. That’s his age 23 through 34 seasons (he’ll turn 35 in February of the final year).
Folks don’t like the $9.25M number now, but I assume most would feel OK about 12 x $7.633M for those years. Quinn Hughes will be UFA at 27/28 having made the $7.85M in his first 6 post ELC seasons. He’s going to make a boat load more than Nurse overall (though Vancouver likely won’t be paying all of it). What do you prefer?
Also, to your previous post, are you sure “Most GMs stopped bringing key players after the Subban contract lesson.”? I don’t see it.
In the last 3 years (summer 2020) what young players have gotten 8 year deals?
Heiskanen, Svechnikiov, Suzuki, J. Hughes, Kotkaniemi, Stutzle.
In terms of bridges, just last summer there were:
Hague, Knight, Hayton, Durzi, Oettinger, Zadina, Romanov, Dobson, Neclas, Yamamoto, Tippett, Kakko, Lundestrom, Kunin, Boqvisit. (not all of these were straight out of ELC, but they obviously are bridges, whether the 1st or 2nd).
Anyway, bridge deals (including by ‘smart GMs’) have most definitely not gone the way of the dinosaurs.
None of those players who got bridges are elite with the possible exception of Oettinger so the risk is pretty low.
.
Are any of those players top line forwards or top pairing defensemen?
I see now that you said ‘key’ players.
A bit difficult to know where you stand on Nurse and Bouchard in since you also said ‘difficult comparison’ when I mentioned Matthews/Marner/Makar/Hughes.
Anyway, fair enough that many of the names I mentioned were not ‘key’ players.
The only full-term post-ELC deals in the last 3 years were Heiskanen, Svechnikiov, Suzuki, J. Hughes, Kotkaniemi and Stutzle (with Kotkaniemi having a major asterisk in that groug).
Bridge deals for arguably ‘key’ players in the same 3 year period include: Hintz, Sergachev, Cirelli, Dubois, Barzal, Bratt, Kyrou, Thomas, Dahlin, Pettersson, Dobson, Oettinger.
As always YMMV on exactly who counts, but GMs have definitely not stopped bridging key players.
I wasn’t referring to goalies.
Obviously some players, even really good players like say Kyrou take a bit of a meandering path then become a piss-cutter, that’s a different scenario.
Some players are instantly good, right outside of the box and those are the ones you want to sign to a max term contract as soon as you can.
Other players, like Nurse, you want to probably go term once you have them surrounded as a player.
You disagree that it would have been preferable not to bridge Nurse on his last contract?
Basically, the Subban contract was the template for what you don’t want to happen.
If they hadn’t bridged Subban, his last contract would have ended two years earlier and likely had a far lower cap hip than $9m.
Subban was finished by the time he arrived in Jersey at age 30. Those 3 years of $9m after 30 were a disaster.
Nurse will be 34 by the time he starts that last year of his current contract.
I already see a player on the decline at 28. 7 more years of that contract are terrifying
As usual entertaining considering all the flame boosting last year preseason, while avoiding really mentioning massive downside of the deals they made…
I think Kostin gets signed at a reasonable number. I could be wrong but I’d guess both sides are pretty motivated. It was a solid trade by Holland and Kostin seems to get along with the team very well. I think Holland will take pride in that and want to retain him. Kostin had a rough go achieving career liftoff. He still hasn’t reached cruising altitude. I think he’ll want to stick around with the team he took off with for that reason.
I have no doubt Holland and the org wants to re-sign him – the risk is if he’s not willing to sign a deal that fits in the cap structure they may not be able to qualify him due to the arbitration risk and a potential award in the $1.75MM range.
I do think they’ll come to a 2-year deal prior to the QO deadline, in the $1.2MM range.
Of the less-glamorous UFA forwards forwards I really like David Kampf and Pierre Engvall. In a pinch Engvall could replace Yamamoto and Kampf would be an excellent 3C.
Joonas Koppanen would also be a sneaky good low-cost acquisition.
These are all bottom 6 adds, of course.
Love Engvall but I suspect he’ll cost too much. I think we could afford Kampf.
One of my only personal interactions with NHL players was with Curtis Glencross. I ran into him in Save on Foods in Red Deer shortly after his tenure with the Oilers (I think it was after free agency)
I had really enjoyed watching the oilers run with him – they nearly made the playoffs if I remember correctly. So I jus gave him a quick compliment – told him I enjoyed watching him and wished the Oilers had signed him. I can’t remember if he had already signed with Calgary.
He told me bluntly that the Oilers never even made him an offer. He was clearly bothered by it. I was actually surprised how candid he was about the situation.
Anyways – sign Kostin!
What about a Yamamoto for Jake Evans from Montreal trade?
Drop in skill level for us. Montreal gets a middle 6 winger with potential. Fits their timeline Evans is a RH 4th line centre with size and solid defensive play and physicality. He is a $1.7 cap for this year and next. Save us $1.4 mill. Which we could use on Brown.
So Yamo deal gets us Brown and Evans. Filling two needs for price of Yamamoto alone.
Montreal already has Caufield. You can only have one.
Jake isn’t a big fella and gets hurt a lot. 6’ 186. He has some jam for sure
That Yamo cap space needs to go to re-sign Bouch/McLeod – I don’t think a $1.7MM fourth liner fits the cap structure – would rather run Ryan and see if the likes of Philp can work – cheap acquisition near the deadline if necessary.
Toffoli?
Toffoli just had a career year.
That dog won’t hunt.
Not as a trade deadline pick-up?
Holloway. McLeod. Foegele is a fast, big and decent scoring 3rd line.
Kostin. ???. Ryan is a solid basis of a 4th line. The 4C is the easiest to fill, and Ryan can slide up to 3RW if needed or 4C.
The Yamamoto spot at 2RW is the real key to fill. Moving him or buying him out is needed for cap reasons. Been said a bunch. But Connor Brown on a 1 year show me you are healthy deal is the perfect fit. Both cap and two way solid player.
Not sure why the love affair with Connor Brown.
A career high of 21 goals and 43 points and will soon turn 30.
What am I missing?
He played with McDavid in Erie. He’s got decent stat lines in the NHL, for someone who would come in around the league min. A guy that could play up the lineup as well.
For someone obsessed with players value relative to their cap hit, this should have been easier for you toupee.
Sounds like Dominic Kahun redux to me.
There’s value and then there are placeholders.
Yeah – he’s a bandaid. But if he’s willing to play a season with the Oilers for the minimum, then sure why not?
You don’t get over the hump by adding players like that.
Most of my recent posts have been about the need to improve defensively. But you don’t necessarily have to go and get defensive players, any player can be a good defensively player when they’re either tasked with it, or put their mind to it. So a lot of that improvement in my opinion has to come from structure and that lies with the coaches.
Offensively, the Oilers were a powerhouse, yet they weren’t in the playoffs. Injuries played a factor, but primarily teams learn how to keep them to the outside and limit chances. Offence was created chances on turnovers are off the rush, but really struggled 5×5 in the offensive end .
Nuge being a smart player, went back to his roots, and found ways to disappear, and then reappear in space where McDavid could find them, resulting in 100 points. He was never great along the boards or in the hard areas, but didn’t matter, until the playoffs.
With Kane and Hyman not 100%, Nuge and Yamo not strong enough on boards and greasy goals, offence suffered. Then Leon and Connor got tired.
I wonder what scoring rate was when Connor or Leon dropped to double shift on that third/fourth line mix of wingers.?
To me the type of winger to replace Yamamoto can’t be found in the numbers alone. They have to have some finish, but not Nuge type finish. Nuge and Kane are shooters. So is Drai and now Connor. This new player need to own the dirty areas. This player type needs to have decent production, but not flashy production.
Fir this reason I think that player type can be found for a decent price. It may be Holloway. It may be internal. Or it may be uncovering the new Kostin, a Bunting type player, or Hyman type who fit well supporting the shooters, and feed off rebounds. If they can’t find him, I agree they strategy is to wait until deadline.
holy crap I wrote a lot. Must be Sunday.
usually a new coach can instill a defensive stance for the team. like if we hired trotz i think the team would be more willed to be more defensively aware.
Woodcroft is a players coach i think he’s great a massaging points outta players but wont scream defense defense defense
i think
Jon Willis with a thread on the offseason for the Oilers.
https://twitter.com/jonathanwillis/status/1662524511701565440?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
Is Tony Dillon-Davis still living in Victoria? Is there any way to contact him?
Sorry…don’t know.
Haven’t spoken with him in decades.
A big day for Germany at the World Hockey Chamionship.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/canada-germany-to-play-for-gold-at-2023-mens-world-hockey-championship
With what Kostin brings to the team (skill, size, grit) I think that he fits (with value) anywhere in the line-up on the RW. And there’s the rub- I think the LW is too crowded for what he’ll likely demand. So the issue becomes:
Are the Oilers comfortable going into next season with: Hyman, Lavoie, Kostin and Ryan on the Starboard side.
I am.
There will also be a cheap UFA stop gap. Maybe two.
Reeves? Watson?
I think Foegele stays and he can play RW too
After JP left, my “I hope this can guy can put it all together” desire went solely to Foegele. He had a few decent stretches this year, but consistency is key.
Speed, size, decent brain at times, decent hands at times, can PK…
I think one of the 1260 guys said he thinks Foegle in a contract year could have a outlier 20 goal campaign. all he needs is a hot streak and oppurtunity
I think Foegele stays too.
I also think (barring injury to RNH or Kane) that Holloway spends the majority of the year in Bakersfield. Because it’s a good idea for both the Oilers and the kid.
One of the interesting battles this fall will be to see who emerges (and maybe two land jobs) in the battle between Holloway, Raphael Lavoie and Noah Philp. Lavoie needs waivers, I think he’ll stay if he shows well. Could Holloway spend the year in Bakersfield? Interesting idea.
Waivers issues aside, I think we saw down the stretch this past season that, to noone’s surprise, Holloway is the more impactful player than Lavoie.
Absolutely true. However, one doesn’t need waivers and the other does. I think Holloway makes the team full stop, but it’s an interesting possibility. I like the Condors forward group far more than the defense and Philp is part of that for sure.
Also, Holloway has only 45 games in the AHL, is developing an injury history, and is blocked on Oilers roster from getting meaningful ice time. Don’t get me wrong, I like him as a prospect. I think that in his situation though, because of circumstances, it might be best to slow walk him from here.
Yes. As a recall option, he would be ideal. I’d rather the Oilers go that route than keep him on the team and use him in a depth role.
There is a lot of risk sticking with those four.
Risk level
Ryan aging out = yes higher
Hyman aging = yes sorta but very small
Kostin = not really if deployment is similar
Lavoie = yes – but no assessment at the NHL level – he may surprise
Overall yes there is risk, but I believe that’s why you have tryouts and camps
Lets not forget that Lavoie was almost exclusively a LW in the AHL this past season.
Hyman can slide over the the RW. He’s a vet who scores greasy goals, so it doesn’t matter which side he lines up at. Let Lavoie have an opportunity to break into the the NHL on the LW where he is comfortable. Same for Holloway.
I would presume that “the hope” heading in to camp is that Holloway and and Lavoie replace Yamamoto and Janmark (maybe Foegele) in the lineup.
Not necessarily Yamo’s incumbent 6F (2RW) spot but in the lineup. Then again, there really may not be the ability to find a more legit 6F externally and Holloway has the best skill set for the first “shot”.
Its a bit unfortunately that all the top 6 wingers “prefer” the left side: Kane, Hyman, Nuge, Holloway, Foegele, Kostin, etc.
Of course, Hyman will shift over but someone else likely needs to do so as well (NOT DRAI).
This is the “issue” with noting good production/out-scoring in a bottom six role and protecting a player up the lineup due to it.
Playing good 2-way hockey (and producing) in lesser minutes against lesser comp (including the opposition’s 3rd pairing, etc.) is not directly equitable to being able to do so in more minutes and harder minutes up the lineup (even with more skill).
I see alot of lineups with Klim Kostin as the Yamo replacement at 6F. I’m not fully against it, definitely “worth a shot” with the current roster – he certainly has the offensive skill to play up the lineup. At the same time, adding 6 minutes of 5 on 5 play and playing against the toughest d-pairings is an entire different game. Not to mention, playing against the opposition’s elite forwards – that poor blue line or neutral zone play is getting turned back with high skilled players bearing down on the Oilers’ net.
Great analysis. Our bottom six wasn’t a tire fire this season, for once. Hopefully Klim is happy to play ~10mins game for a couple years, continue developing and can continue being productive on a 3rd line.
Our host is suffering PTSD from the decade of darkness today. The team lost Glencross because Lowe was spending the summer on one of his annual futile big game hunts. Lowe had one good summer after the lock-out season when GMs and players were confused and he thought he was a rock star. He reminds me of a song:
Hey wait a minute
Who do you think you are
Comin’ on, comin’ on
Like you’re some kinda movie star
You’re just a three dressed up as a 9
You’re only, wastin’ my time
A three dressed up as a 9, hey yeah
(All dressed up but you’re only a three, a three dressed up as a 9)
Of course they will sign Kostin. Team likes him and player likes the team. Holland isn’t Lowe, MacT or Chia. He’s a functional GM who makes small incremental good moves like Kostin that improve the team.
Oh I remember it well. Such a poor decision.
Kostin saved the Oilers bacon in two games against LA. He scored big goals when most of the top six was MIA. He has a lethal shot and only needs one chance. His defensive game is still a work in progress but he is also the teams enforcer. I’d say he wears a few hats. Definitely worth resigning.
I prefer Avenger.
Definitely worth but can they keep him at apx $1.75MM – that’s what he could get in arbitration and that’s the risk of qualifying him without a deal in place.
If he refused to take a couple years for closer to $1.2MM AAV, can they risk that arb award?
I do hope that Kostin doesn’t become Glencross 2.0, but it’s certainly a possibility. Don’t recall Holland saying too much about Kostin while recapping the season, and maybe they are expecting some difficulty.
But bad asset management at a time when you are trading picks at the deadline to win is even worse. They need to find some common ground here. Kid brings some good things but he’s not the complete package and he needs to understand and work on his shortcomings.
It’s all hands on deck this summer. I’m pretty sure Holland and his staff will be working non-stop this summer to squeeze out everything they can from the cap space they have remaining. While Kostin is not the top priority, I’ve got not concern that there will be ongoing dialogue with his agent.
Did the club or players release any info on which players where playing injured and what that was….yesterday on Bob`s show I heard that both Cecci and Hyman had core injuries…
I’m not sure McD tells even his Mom where he’s hurting, not likely we will ever hear re his.
I would never, ever share. Just more intel teams don’t need to have.
What we know:
1) Kane – Broken Finger (plus not 100% from the broken ribs or lacerated wrist)
2) Ceci – Groin injury – essentially all year
3) Hyman – Something, speculated core
4) Foegele – Wrist – really limited his ability to shoot.
5) McDavid – Nothing even unofficially but, from viewing, we pretty know know he had a knee (or similar area) injury
6) Kostin – Speculated broken foot (or was it toe?)
One of Woody’s flaws is not trusting healthy players over ones that obviously can’t get the job done. And trusting others to do what the normal top 6 aren’t doing if they aren’t
Twice now. At least last season there was less depth as his excuse. This makes no sense to me and isn’t good for building the group. It’s basically here’s our guys, and the rest of you. But blah blah blah tight team , all for one, blah blah, as the others watch Nuge Kane Hyman and Ceci get fed
I never understood the Glencross thing from the moment it happened. They were such a fun line to watch at the end of that season.
Do great work in discovering and acquiring a useful player and then let him walk away for nothing. Same as Hejda
Hope Kostin doesn’t suffer a similar fate
I’d forgotten (or blocked out) how good Glencross was after leaving the Oilers.
I was so mad. And even after the Smyth debacle and Horcoff debate it was the first of a bunch of moves that said to me these guys really don’t know what they’re doing.
Took a while to deflate from me all the hope and magic of 2006, and KLowe’s year leading up that had been so good it left me giving him the benefit of the doubt. I thought he had a shit off-season in 2006, but I figured we’d seen the worst
Yep – Glencross never should have gotten to free agency. They should’ve signed him the moment the season ended. To make matters worse, it was Calgary who benefitted.
I think Glencross and Pitlick were UFAs upon Oiler contract expiry (Pitlick a Group VI).
Oilers have Kostin’s RFA right’s unless they don’t qualify him – there is actually a chance of that given the risk of an arb award higher than they want to go with him (his goal total in less than 60 games is real).
I think they come to a 2-year deal at a lower AAV than he’d likely get in arb prior to the QO deadline – at least I hope.
Arbitration rights mean he signs early or they walk him and hope to get him signed on the other side imo. Money is too tight (depending on the new cap number).
What appears to be the main consensus reason for the Oilers failure in the playoffs?
I don’t think you’re going to get a consensus, but my reasons are:
1. Vegas was the better team (margins were small but clear)
2. Injuries and illness
3. Edmonton needed their goalie to steal one, and it was Adin Hill who did in fact steal Game 6
4. Young Oilers had single events that were important while also being single events
I wouldn’t move any of Skinner, Broberg or Desharnais. I wouldn’t make a huge move in goal (until the deadline) and would try to bring back Kostin, Ryan and Janmark (I don’t think they can afford Bjugstad).
I’d make room for Holloway and Lavoie.
I’d look around for a replacement for Ceci but I don’t see him right now.
Cap room comes from trading the wingers or buying out KY.
Do you think Vegas was the better team outside of goaltending?
(I do not, though I can agree it was closer than the fancies suggest)
This article on ON from today (https://oilersnation.com/news/why-the-edmonton-oilers-should-pursue-a-top-six-winger-with-finishing-talent) gives a good overview of why we lost. And I agree the numbers don’t really paint the picture of Vegas being the better team. It was close either way so luck, tending, officiating and some 5 bell mistakes ended up being the difference. Like Bieksa said after the series, if you run that 100 times the Oilers likely win more than half.
Will have a look at the article later when I have some time. Agree with Bieksa at this point though.
There is no cap room till the trade deadline.
McDavid and Draisaitl are the shooters one is looking for. McDavid got to his point total last season because he started shooting the puck instead of passing it off. Then he reverted and forgot to shoot in the playoffs. #overgeneralization
No Yamamoto suppressing Draisaitl’s shooting at 5 on 5 will also help.
A healthy Kane will help.
The youngsters are all shooters. Kostin, Lavoie, and Holloway. Maybe Bourgault after January. Give them the at-bats till the trade deadline.
I fully agree with this take.
Certainly Yamo failed at 6F last season and the Oilers could certainly use an upgrade at 6F/2RW but the numbers don’t show that Leon was cratered by Yamo – no in rate of goals scored, on ice shooting percentage, etc.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2023-04-14&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8479977&p2=8477934&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
A healthy Kane will help – lets hope that is something we actually get to see. He has a decent history of injuries and it doesn’t seem likely that “gets better” as he progresses in his 30s…….
For me the series was decided five-on-five and Vegas had better structure. I do think the Oilers had some severe injury issues and that had an impact. It was a close series, certainly six games doesn’t do it justice.
The series was decided at 5v5, and I agree Vegas had better structure.
With ~54% expected goals (overall and at 5v5) though I can’t help but feel a few more saves (and not 5-bell ones) could/would have turned the tide.
That’s fair, but I don’t think goaltending was the lead story until Game 6. Remember the first GA in that game? Skinner didn’t get the same structure Hill enjoyed imo.
Maybe not the lead story, but it was a secondary story in the majority of games.
I agree Vegas protected Hill well, but Skinner allowed a lot more grade B scoring chances past him than he did in the regular season.
Vegas had a 1054 PDO at 5v5 (with scoring chances and HD chances tilted even less in their favor than shots). I don’t disagree that Vegas earned some of that ‘luck’, but 1054 I don’t buy.
Anyway, we can also agree to disagree.
Sure. I’m always going to trust the big sample (regular season) over the smaller one, but Skinner didn’t outplay Adin Hill.
I would also point to that first GA in Game 6 (defense aided and abetted) and the near miss Janmark-to-Ceci chance that could have changed the tide.
Didn’t Skinner make the first big mistake on that goal – a very poor play up the boards that gave the puck away.
Also, was the Knights structure any better on the Oilers 2nd goal – where they dumped, retrieved and get the puck in front for a 3rd line goal?
A veteran defenseman has to eat that puck. As for the Oilers second goal, sure, but if you look at the series overall Edmonton’s structure wasn’t as strong. There are WAY too many back passes and cute plays. The Oilers are going to have to be more disciplined and take care of the puck.
All year long.
Better, Worse. I thought Vegas outplayed the oil, and were good enough for that to be the difference.
I agree that goaltending was a prime reason but I’m not sure I label it as not “stealing games”.
Skinner generally wasn’t “losing games” per se but kept not making one or two more saves that the team needed, saves the opposition tender was making – a save to keep the deficit at 1, a save to keep the momentum after having scored, a save to keep the lead.
I think there was very little to given in all 4 of the Oilers loses to Vegas, but the Oilers have the lesser goaltending performance in all 4, in my opinion.
I know this won’t be a popular answer, but I think luck played a big part. These were two very evenly matched teams. If we run that series 100 times, how many times does Vegas win? Maybe 55. Maybe only 45. I think it was the last game, we were ahead 2-1 after the first. It could have easily been 4-1 if it wasn’t for some bad bounces.
Skinner wasn’t good enough either. And I’m not saying we should run him out of town, or that he’s a bad goalie even, but he wasn’t good enough in the series.
Vegas has chased Oettinger. The defending in front of Skinner was the problem.
So Heiskanen and the Dallas defending is also a problem? Not sure how to marry your two statements.
Haakanppa and Lindell have had a few horrific games.
Woodcroft didn’t line up McDavid vs. Eichel when he had the chance. He gave Vegas a 5 on 5 mismatch.
McDavid would have had to sacrifice the last 40 seconds of the power play, so the OIlers would not be killed in the two shifts after the power play.
Woodcroft bet on a full two minute power play doing more damage than Eichel in the two shifts following the power play.
Draisaitl was on for more Eichel line goals than any other center.
And IIRC only 1 of the non-Draisaitl goals Eichel’s line scored was shortly after a PP (with Bjugstad/Nuge opposing).
This ‘full 2 minute PP’ argument doesn’t hold any water.
What about “put McDavid on Eichel” do you not understand?
Lol
2/3 of your post was about McDavid needing to ‘sacrifice’ PP time, and Woodcroft betting on the full 2 min PP.
I disagree with everything after “Woodcroft didn’t line up McDavid vs. Eichel when he had the chance.”
Kind of reminds me of the old NFL adage – “Live by the pass and die by the pass”
With the Oilers powerplay success rate that was a reasonable bet
May I also add that playing a team with a significantly higher cap hit than the Oilers played a big factor as well.
Thank you to everyone who posted.
This sums up my hockey knowledge: For me it was the moment that Vegas goon plastered our top defenceman, while Darnell Nurse sat in the press box watching on after receiving a bone headed major penalty by beating up said goon with seconds left in the game before.
As LT said, the margins were very slim. Edmonton had the horses to beat Vegas, and with a few breaks probably would have. I thought a significant turning point was the Brossoit injury … Hill came in and went on a goalie heater. Skinner couldn’t come up with enough saves.
Nurse taking a boneheaded major was also significant … he’s supposed to be a leader on this team, but he just couldn’t help himself and had to try to show up Vegas … his antics after the fight was over was what got him a 1 game suspension … when you’re making 9+ million, its time to start turning down offers to fight from the other teams scrubs, especially when it happens with the game already in hand. Just dumb.
Pietro should’ve been suspended longer for obvious intent to injure though … Draisaitl said he was good, but he didn’t look the same after.
Vegas really came together as a team and played very well 5v5 afterwards. Cassidy pushed the right buttons, and Woodcroft made some tactical errors. Puck luck also played a role, and the refs also pitched in with a solid effort at game management.
Slim margins … except when it comes to how much Vegas is circumventing the cap.
With the Leafs imploding, the Oilers remain the best bet to give Bettman the screws and win Canada a Cup.