Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic made an appearance on Lowetide and Jamieson yesterday, with the Oilers fan survey a big part of the conversation. One thing Daniel talked about that struck me pertained to Raphael Lavoie. Daniel said he believed Lavoie is going to get a real chance in the fall, and that’s worth noting. Along with his own eyes and ears, he is talking to the people who matter.
Daniel has a story about Lavoie and all of Edmonton’s AHL prospects this morning. It is here.
The conversation reminded me of a distant September, 16 years ago, and an unlikely emergence from a seventh-round selection. He threatened to eat everyone’s lunch in an exhibition game that night, and then he did. For 15 years.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers fan survey results: Belief remains in team’s Stanley Cup window
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers must return to the OHL at 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers assets that could have value in a trade this summer
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
SEPTEMBER 18, 2007
- Kyle Brodziak: Selected 214th overall in 2003. 2 goals, 1 assist, +2. 18 shifts, 16:33 TOI, 1:59PP, 2:31PK. He was splendid based on the play-by-play and the results. Listening to Rod from the first shift of the night through the last it was clear that Brodziak was not only on a mission but had prepared for the opportunity. THIS is how players win NHL jobs.
- Marc Pouliot: Selected 22nd overall in 2003. 0 goals, 0 assists, -1. 14 shifts, 13:50 TOI, 2:14PP, 1:45PK. He had a couple of chances and his line seemed to force the issue later in the third period, but the offense didn’t come for him tonight. With Reasoner injured and unable to take the final two faceoffs of the game, Pouliot did so and had a positive outcome both times.
- Rob Schremp: Selected 25th overall in 2004. 0 goals, 0 assists, -1. 12 shifts, 11:12 TOI, 2:29PP, 0:00PK. Had a nice chance late but it sounded like he’s still a step or two behind this training camp. Schremp got passed over with the penalty brigade and didn’t seem to get it back until midway through the third period when he had what Morley described as the best chance for his line on the night.
- Sam Gagner: Selected 6th overall in 2007. 1 goal, 0 assists, +1. 21 shifts, 17:33 TOI, 4:55PP, 0:39PK. Popped a goal and had several chances again tonight. I know they’re showcasing the kid and giving him every opportunity, but he’s also delivering results. Each time he does it, we say “well let’s wait until he does it against better competition.” Tonight’s result came in a game against an NHL team with NHL goaltending. At what point do we begin to take him seriously?
Lavoie is one strong training camp from making the hockey club, that’s a very good thing. Brodziak worked all summer to get himself into position and it paid off with a long career. Some of my favourite prospects of that era are listed here, these 16 years later no one can claim that any of Gagner, Pouliot or Schremp optimized their talent and situation more than Brodziak. Can Lavoie do the same?
AHL GOAL SHARE AT EVENS (ERIC RODGERS)
- Xavier Bourgault (62 GP) 37-25, 60 pct
- Raphael Lavoie (61 GP) 47-33, 59 pct
- Dylan Holloway (12 GP) 11-8, 58 pct
- Brad Malone (41 GP) 29-22, 57 pct
- Luke Esposito (68 GP) 35-27, 57 pct
- Noah Philp (70 GP) 47-39, 55 pct
- Tyler Tullio (41 GP) 35-30, 54 pct
- Greg McKegg (66 GP) 36-33, 52 pct
- James Hamblin (52 GP) 35-36, 49 pct
- Justin Bailey (47 GP) 25-29, 47 pct
- Seth Griffith (72 GP) 46-54, 46 pct
- Tyler Benson (43 GP) 21-26, 45 pct
- Carter Savoie (44 GP) 12-28, 30 pct
Several positive items here, including most of the top prospects outscoring at an impressive rate. Lavoie’s numbers improved in each season and he graduates (one hopes) with a strong resume across the board. The top three names are important players for the Oilers. At the other end, Carter Savoie’s season was miserable due to injury, but his scoring rates weren’t terrible. I’m not sure a 30 percent goal share for a rookie forward has ever happened since Rodgers started running these numbers, but can tell you it’s rare.
NOTES FROM ADAM SHERREN
A few years ago, Adam Sherren stepped up when I was expressing frustration with getting good information about QMJHL draft eligibles. When I say stepped up, I mean he provided me with even-strength goal differentials for team and players, he gave me thumbnail sketches on individual players and passed along answers to my questions. I don’t know what word is stronger than mensch, but Mr. Sherren qualifies. This spring he passed along copious notes, and I thought it would be a good idea to publish some of his reporting. Sincere thanks to Adam. Words and music by Sherren from here to the end.
2002 born players – for 2002 born players I’m looking for players who have elite statistics and who have a strong goal differential number. These are players who might be of interest to sign to an entry level contract or an AHL only deal.
Ivan Ivan had impressive boxcars for an inconsistent Cape Breton team (64-33-57-90) and had a goal differential of 51.1% compared to his team total of 43.7%. Ivan has been a significant part of the Eagles’ offense for the past two seasons. He’s been to Detroit’s training camp in 2022. There’s been no indication that Ivan has signed to play with any team in Czechia for next season.
Jeremie Biakabatuka played for our team in Charlottetown. He was 56-17-25-42. His 17 goals were third among all defencemen behind Tristan Luneau and Etienne Morin. Biakabatuka has a goal differential of 50% compared to his team measure of 47.5%. Biakabatuka is one of those guys who can be guilty of trying to do too much when his team is down. His mistakes can be noticeable since he can be known to take quite a few chances. Biakabatuka has impressive size at 6’4” and 203 lbs. He was at Detroit’s camp and also participated in Grand Rapids’ AHL camp. Following the Islanders being eliminated, he joined Grand Rapids on a tryout to wrap up his season.
Cole Cormier played on a very, very good Gatineau team and was 66-33-38-71 and had a 66.7% differential compared to his team measure of 65.2%. Since he’s played in Gatineau, I really haven’t seen him play as a junior, but he’s delivered two strong offensive seasons. Cormier has been to Arizona’s training camp.
Josh Lawrence just finished his season this week with Halifax losing in the QMJHL final. He was a key part of Saint John’s Memorial Cup winner in 2022 and was dealt to Blainville in the offseason. When it became clear that they were underperforming this season, they flipped him to Halifax mid-season. Lawrence played in Halifax’s potent offense and scored 64-50-64-114. His goal differential was 75.3% with Halifax compared to the team total of 62.9%. He also had a strong goal differential of 66.4% last season with Saint John and scored 68-31-70-101. Last fall he attended Philadelphia’s training camp. Lawrence is an elite skill player.
I know you don’t require a lot of background on Theo Rochette of Quebec. This season he was 65-42-64-106 and had a 72.5% differential. Last year the number was 74.1%. Any team who is not trying to sign him is making a mistake.
Tomorrow, I’ll publish Adam’s work on 2003 born players. I think this is such valuable information it would be a shame to leave it unpublished. I hope you enjoyed it.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
CFL season gets underway tonight, and we’ll have coverage 10-2 on TSN1260. We’ll also talk Oilers, SC final (they play again tonight!) and NBA finals. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Wow, the Blue Jackets are going for it.
Provorov and now Severson (and of course Johnny Hockey last year.
https://theathletic.com/4596735/2023/06/09/damon-severson-trade-blue-jackets-devils/
Keith Tkachuk was one of the best power forwards ever scored over 500 Goals made tons of money but in his 18 year career never got a real sniff of the Stanley Cup. If you don’t think he’s having fun and a good go at watching his son possibly finally winning one for the family than so be it.
Who cares?
The whole family can miss out on Cups forever and ever, amen.
Wasn’t he mediocre playoff performer? His scoring went from 0.89 ppg in the regular season to 0.63 ppg in the playoffs. I dont know if I’d call someone who disappears when the going gets tough one of the best power forwards ever. Maybe he was a big part of the reason he never got a ‘real sniff at the cup’.
No argument on the second sentence though, he is absolutely living vicariously through his son. I always have time for proud fathers and supportive families.
I chucked when Craig Simpson called Keith “Walt” last night..
One note on Savoie, he scored 8 goals this season but he scored 2 in one game early November also had a hat trick in mid-Jan. He struggled in the AHL, but he also had some brilliant moments. He is a substantial talent.
My latest mini-project is to scour the league for the best and most realistic 2 RW acquisition and fit this summer. I was trying to hone in on a right shot winger with size, but that has proven to be very difficult.
Tonight the player I have landed on is Connor Garland. Small, durable, feisty and Uber-skilled.
He is under contract with the cap-handcuffed Canucks. If they can’t move contracts they will likely have to buy-out one or two contracts. Currently they have a roster size of 18, 39 players under contract and they are $668,750 over the Salary Cap, but about $12 million over the cap if you include LTIR. Garland makes the most sense to buy-out this off-season.
The IThe two candidates are OEL & Brock Boeser.
If they buy-out OEL, they save almost $8.1 million next season, but pay a few million each season over the next 7 seasons, so they won’t be doing that.
If they buy out Boeser, they save $4.4+ million for 2 years and carry a cap hit of $2.2 million for 2 more years.
If they buy-out Garland, they save $4.1 million for 2 seasons, $3.1 for 1 season and pay just under $1.9 for 3 more seasons. So he might be the most palatable, especially as he is the 3rd line RW.
If he gets bought out, the Oilers could probably sign him for about $1.5 million on a 2 year contract.
I’ll keep looking over the next few weeks and list players who might be unexpected targets for this team.
Garland has averaged 50 points / 82 over the past four seasons, and just turned 27.
He’s close to market value on his current deal.
Yes, exactly. Now the question remains, what are the Canucks going to do about their lack of Cap Space? They will have to shed salary.
Garland might stick, but he could very possibly shake loose.
I think a few teams will have to do similar things.
Looks like some of this is covered here:
https://canucksarmy.com/news/report-canucks-trying-very-hard-create-cap-space-nhl-combine
I don’t see a path forward for the Canucks to trade any of the contracts I mentioned, let alone Meyers. Not without expending assets.
This is going to be an interesting off-season for many fan bases. I think this off-season there will be a record set for buy-outs. KY will be most likely be bought out, it seems to be the path of least resistance for Kenny.
We have a series!
What was Calgary thinking there’s a reason why Florida didn’t sign Hubersoft to the retirement contact.
Maybe Maclean has a muzzle but that analysis of the penalty was infuriating
Jen was disgusted as she should be. Bieksa thought weak. Ron talks about ‘scoring chance’ and everyone backs down except Hrudey, of course who is thick as a whale omelette
What gets my goat is that Verhaege was tackled seconds before, no call, net front. So Ron if the standard is scoring chance denied, clearly the standard for a call is far higher than what Forsling got called on, which wasn’t actually a penalty regardless
Replay showed him trying to get the puck and then moving his stick out of the skates of jumping guy. A little glove bump higher up which is legal as he was the carrier
Total BS and that play was not that fast that a pro ref couldn’t see it. Barf and spit
turtle is knocked out of the game.
Unfortunately, he only missed a few shifts
And?
Since everyone enjoyed my wildly unfair and misleading look at Holloway and Bourgault so much, I thought I’d do one for Broberg’s AHL season too.
He scored 0.74 points/game in his age 20 AHL season (21-22) so I looked at U21 defensemen who scored 0.64 to 0.84 points/game in the AHL (20+ GP).
21-22
Broberg 31GP 0.74 20.3
20-21
Addison 31GP 0.71 20.5
19-20
Liljegren 40GP 0.75 20.5
Bouchard 54GP 0.67 19.11
Keane 58GP 0.64 19.2
18-19
Valimaki 20GP 0.70 19.11
17-18
None
16-17
Dunn 72GP 0.63 19.11 (cherry picked from below the points/game cutoff, but figured he’d be fun to include)
15-16
Theodore 50GP 0.74 20.1
DeAngelo 69GP 0.62 19.11 (also cherry picked from below the points/game cutoff)
14-15
Dumba 20GP 0.70 20.2
13-14
Ceci 27GP 0.70 19.9
12-13
Faulk 31GP 0.77 20.6
11-12
McNabb 45GP 0.67 20.9
Ellis 29GP 0.66 20.9
Barrie 49GP 0.65 20.2
10-11
Voynov 76GP 0.67 20.9
09-10
Carlson 48GP 0.81 19.9
Subban 77GP 0.69 20.4
08-09
Y. Weber 68GP 0.65 20.0
07-08
Gragnini 78GP 0.67 20.6
06-07
None
05-06
M. Green 56GP 0.77 19.11
S. Weber 46GP 0.59 20.1 (cherry picked from below the the points/game cutoff)
The comps looked so good I kept going back 15 years or whatever.
I dunno, I still have very high hopes for Broberg even though many seem to have lost faith.
The numbers listed for each player are:
games played / points per game / age on Oct 1st
I also mis-typed Joseph Keane’s age. He was 20 year and 2 months old to start the 2019-20 season.
It’s like the Refs are given a wink and nudge on what team gets the benefit of the doubt on penalties
The last 2 penalties were absolute nothing burgers.
If I had a shred of confidence in NHL officiating it would never even enter my mind that referees were actively trying to create more shots/generate more scoring chances by calling non-existent fouls in this game.
They panel can’t even come up with a better narrative then the misfits.
The CRA is taking some former Blue Jays to court in a case that may affect all Canadian pro sports teams efforts to sign players.
https://apple.news/ATCmtrhLhTQWiAQb_xgh_7w
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/hosing-bautista-why-the-cra-is-going-after-former-blue-jays-for-millions-in-taxes/wcm/59604031-b8c9-49ba-89c7-1c623b012062/amp/
Non paywall article.
So basically these guys sheltered tons of their income in “pensions” so they didn’t have to pay tax. A loophole for the rich.
Tax those mf’ers! I don’t get to shelter have my income from taxes!
Pretty sure your CPP contributions are tax deductible.
Also pretty sure his RRSP contributions are tax deductible.
Pretty sure I’m not allowed to contribute 1/2 my income to them. Can’t believe you’re both defending millionaires tax shelters.
Lavoie would do well to show up at training camp and tell the coach he prefers to play RW (relative to the Oilers’ depth chart).
Why has he been playing LW is the AHL? Is that his preference?
I don’t know what he “prefers” but, from viewings, he’s more dynamic on the left side – shoot better and drives the net better from his off wing.
Cleary Brodziak was a grand slam for a 7th round pick – that was a long time ago but the Oilers are starting to see some more success from that spot recently.
Truth be told, a 7th round pick even signing an NHL contract is a win.
Vinny Deharnais playing NHL games and NHL playoff games and making an impact a clear win – this will be a grand slam if he can continue to progress and indeed becomes an every day player – or at least a legit roster play (i.e 7D).
Phil Kemp has already beat expectations, signing an NHL contract and now a 2nd – if he can get even a cup of coffee on merit, that’s a home run.
Max Wanner – we have no idea how his game translates at the pro level but his draft plus 2 was a big pop and he’s trending. NHL contract signed – a win – can he be a home run?
Raphael Lavoie has 100% earned a real opportunity – he should get some lines rushes with, and real minutes in exhibition games with, legit NHL middle six player and perhaps even the legit top 6. The development in his game through this past season was subjectively and objectively notable – there was even a “pop moment” – a benching, a heated exchange with the coach, a follow up fight and a clear change in the player’s game subsequent thereto.
All Lavoie can do in camp is earn the opportunity in the regular season – he could score 4 goals and have 7 points in 6 exhibition games and that doesn’t mean he’s ready for the NHL regular season – but it will earn him a shot.
He needs waivers to clear – that’s a factor but I don’t think it would be determinative for Ken Holland – he will finalize the roster he thinks best to win games and, frankly, more famous names than Lavoie clear waivers in early October every year – truth be told, this would be a forward on his 2nd contract that has never played an NHL game.
Truth to be told, is reasonable to think that 2 forwards are disposed of for cap purposes – I don’t see Ceci or Kulak being moved and Yamo out on its own just isn’t enough. Its far from a lock that Foegele is also moved but, presuming both Yamo and Foegele are out, well 6F and 3rd line winger are right there for the taking for Holloway and Lavoie.
I also think it’ll be two towards. Can’t spare the personnel on D.
https://theathletic.com/4590229/2023/06/08/nhl-salary-cap-increase/
Joe Smith with a piece about this years salary cap and how there is still hope for a larger increase than the $1M being discussed
One can dream I guess
I looked at something similar to this before, but scoring comparables for Holloway and Bourgault’s college/junior offense.
Holloway scored 23 11-24-35 1.52 points/game in his age 19 NCAA season.
Bourgault scored 43 36-39-75 1.74 points/game in his age 19 QMJHL season.
So Holloway first, using elite prospects to look for other NCAA players who scored between 1.32 and 1.72 points/game in their U20 seasons.
20-21
Holloway 1.52
Caufield 1.68
Boldy 1.41
19-20
Jack Drury 1.39
18-19
Evan Barratt 1.34 (from U Penn)
17-18
None
16-17
Clayton Keller 1.45
15-16
Brock Boeser 1.43
14-15
Dylan Larkin 1.34
13-14
Nic Kerdiles 1.36
12-13
Johnny Gaudreau 1.46
11-12
Jaden Schwartz 1.37
So 7 top 6 forwards, 2 guys who are breaking in (Holloway, Drury) and 2 guys who amounted to nothing much.
Then Bourgault, again using elite prospects to look for other QMJHL players who scored between 1.54 and 1.94 points/game in their U20 seasons.
For both Bourgault and Holloway I went back 10 years from their final respective college/junior seasons.
Reminder, Bourgault scored 43 36-39-75 1.74 points/game in his age 19 QMJHL season.
There are a lot more QMJHL players who scored like Bourgault so I also included an asterisk for the guys who were 1st round picks.
21-22
Roy 1.80
Dufort 1.76
*Bourgault 1.74
Dumais 1.60
20-21
*Mercer 1.57
Francis 1.56
*Bourque 1.54
*Pelletier 1.54
19-20
Khovanov 1.94
Sokolov 1.77
Zavgorodny 1.68
*Poulin 1.67
18-19
Comtois 1.92
*Veleno 1.76
*Lafreniere 1.72
Chekhovich 1.59
17-18
Abramov 1.86
16-17
Sprong 1.90
Chlapik 1.60
15-16
Perron 1.74
*Beauvallier 1.68
*Meier 1.67
*PL Dubios 1.60
*Svechnikov 1.58
14-15
Garland 1.93
Barbashev 1.67
13-14
*Grigorenko 1.70
Duclair 1.68
*Ehlers 1.65
12-13
Jaskin 1.94
Kucherov 1.91
Andrighetto 1.85
*MacKinnon 1.70
So yeah, far more QMJHL players scored similarly to Bourgault at the same age. Lots of them played NHL games and some impact players, but lots of misses too.
Unsurprisingly the 1st round picks fared better than ‘the rest’, but there are some relative misses there as well. I guess Svechnikov, Grigorenko and Veleno are the only 1st rounders who could be considered misses, and they are at least NHL caliber players, though not of the top 6 variety.
What is your parameter for ‘age 19… U20 season’? Or if it’s just the last year they played junior. Even then Lafreniere would be in 19-20 bracket, Ehlers in 14-15, Mackinnon never had an age 19 season. So some of these are not the same playing field as X’s D+1 so I wouldn’t consider them a comparable.
That said, if Borgault could reach Mercer level that’d be a coup. He’s a year behind right now.
I used the age 19 seasons for Holloway and Bourgault. The comparisons were anyone in the same league who was ‘U20’ according to elite prospects and scored similarly.
So yes, there are definitely a few younger players like MacKinnon and Lafreniere in there, but most were draft +1 guys like Holloway and Bourgault.
Feedback 🙂
Is it fair to compare Holloway’s age 19 season to Keller’s age 18 season or Larkin’s age 18 season?
I haven’t checked all of the other players, but Keller did 1.45 ppg for his age 18 season vs Holloway’s age 19 season? Holloway was 0.49 PPG for his age 18 season.
I’m wondering… Holloway spiked in his second year in the big 10.
Some of the players like Gaudreau were at a ppg in their 1st year.
Holloway also only played 23 games that season, so converting that to PPG might overestimate his offense. He had 0.89 PPG over the two seasons.
It seems wildly unfair and misleading to group Holloway’s age 19 season with age 18 seasons for other players. I haven’t checked the rest on your list. I certainly don’t think this will lead to accurate comps.
Well gosh I wouldn’t want to be wildly unfair and misleading.
Here are the games played and ages (on October 1st) for all the NCAA players I listed (years/months):
20-21
Holloway 23GP 1.52 19.0
Caufield 31GP 1.68 19.10
Boldy 22GP 1.41 19.5
19-20
Jack Drury 28GP 1.39 19.7
18-19
Evan Barratt 32GP 1.34 19.7
16-17
Clayton Keller 31GP 1.45 18.2
15-16
Brock Boeser 42GP 1.43 18.7
14-15
Dylan Larkin 35GP 1.34 18.2
13-14
Nic Kerdiles 28GP 1.36 19.9
12-13
Johnny Gaudreau 35GP 1.46 19.1
11-12
Jaden Schwartz 30GP 1.37 19.3
So I’d listed 11 players:
Holloway did play the 2nd fewest games (but only 3 of the 11 had more than 32GP).
Holloway was the 4th youngest of the 11 players.
Holloway had the 2nd highest points per game of the 11 players.
Apologies again for being wildly unfair and misleading with this, I can be a real dink sometimes.
Do you think Larkin and Keller are good comps given that they were 18 at the time and by their draft plus 2 were over 0.5 ppg in the NHL?
Feel free to provide your own list of Holloway comparables that you think are more appropriate.
You mentioned Mavrik Bourque the other day didn’t you? He scored 0.67 points/game in the AHL this year.
Holloway scored 0.83 points/game in his 12 AHL games this season, and spent most of the year in the NHL.
That’s probably a good starting point for a more fair and accurate set of comps than the ones I provided.
20-21
Holloway 1.52
Caufield 1.68***Boldy 1.4119-20
Jack Drury 1.39
18-19
Evan Barratt 1.34 (from U Penn)
17-18
None
16-17
Clayton Keller 1.45***15-16
Brock Boeser 1.43***14-15
Dylan Larkin 1.34***13-14
Nic Kerdiles 1.36***
12-13
Johnny Gaudreau 1.46***
11-12
Jaden Schwartz 1.37***Two modifications (not using strikethrough to eliminate comps, just add information)
*** Was over 1ppg in draft + 1 season.
Over .5 ppg in NHL in draft +2 or 3 seasonsWas over 0.5 ppg in NHL in draft +2 season
Only Kerdiles, Barratt, Boldy, and Drury were under 1ppg in their draft plus 1 season.
Kerdiles and Barratt were busts. They were under 1 ppg in draft + 1 year. Barratt never played in the NHL and Kerdiles only played 3 games.
Drury spent his draft + 5 season between the AHL and NHL.
Boldy was over 0.5 ppg in his draft + 3 in the NHL.
I looked at Holloway comparables here:
https://theathletic.com/2200859/2020/11/17/oilers-dylan-holloway-fast-start/
https://theathletic.com/2368137/2021/02/06/lowetide-dylan-holloway-caps-strong-ncaa-season-with-hobey-baker-nomination/
https://theathletic.com/3067994/2022/01/14/lowetide-what-to-expect-from-dylan-holloway-in-bakersfield-and-edmonton-this-season/
The season shown (1.52 points/game) is Holloway’s draft +1 (he scored at 2x the rate Bodly did in his draft +1).
Schwartz did not score 0.5 NHL points/game in draft +2 or +3 (his draft +3 looked a lot like Holloway’s).
I started to write on Barratt – he played at U Penn who’ve had a number of players score very well and amount to nothing. They joined the NCAA fairly recently and I assume still play more games against non-NCAA competition than most.
Kerdiles is also a bust. Holloway has already proven an NHLer of some capacity so neither Barrett or Kerdiles are good comps in any case.
If we use those filters, what are we left with?
Holloway
Drury
Gaudreau
Schwartz
Do you have thoughts on how to shoehorn Mavrik Bourque onto the list?
Since the Holloway comps are dwindling I figured I’d go back further in time to find more players who met the added criteria.
(Those basically being: 1 – not a total bust, and 2 – not a 0.5 point/game NHLer in draft +2 or +3).
Holloway 23GP 1.52 19.0
Remaining from 1st round of comps:
Jack Drury 28GP 1.39 19.7
Johnny Gaudreau 35GP 1.46 19.1
Jaden Schwartz 30GP 1.37 19.3
2nd round of comps:
R. Smith 38GP 1.42 19.6
T. Hensick 39GP 1.41 18.9 (note that college draft age was 19 this far back)
Z. Parise 37GP 1.49 19.2 (he’d scored even better 18)
T. Vanek 38GP 1.34 19.8 (he’d also scored better 18)
C. Higgins 28GP 1.46 19.3
L. Stempniak 34GP 1.44 19.7
Going a bit far back (that’s 20 years now), but none of these guys scored 0.5 NHL points per game in their draft +2 or +3 seasons.
I left Hensick (21 NHL games) as a comp, though Holloway has already done more than Hensick did in his career, so it would be fair to exclude him. He’s the only bust.
Parise and Vanek had scored at really high levels at age 18, so it would be fair to exclude them as well.
Interesting that Holloway:
1) had the highest points/game of any of these guys, and
2) was younger than all but the bust Hensick.
Looking at LTs write-ups on this, I see that Reilly Smith comes up consistently.
I’d feel pretty good with this as a conservative group of comps for Holloway:
(removing Gaudreau only because he became too good)
Their per 82 games boxcars are added:
J. Drury – too soon to know (but 82 8-12-20)
J. Schwartz – 82 22-33-55
R. Smith – 82 21-30-51
C. Higgins – 82 19-19-38
L. Stempniak – 82 18-24-42
Connor Hallebuyck is available via trade.
Man, that is awfully tempting. If there is one piece that makes this team a contender …
everyone should know by now that goalie is the most important position. The biggest difference maker as shown with the Panthers run this year. Arguably Tampa lost because Vasilevski was not at his best this playoff run.
I’d say trade anyone except Connor and Leon for Hellebuyck. Perhaps a 1st, Bourg, broberg and campbell.
Hellebuyck is the goods.
Still, I always worry about these high mileage goalies. Sometimes they breakdown around 30 or earlier. When these high start goalies, go, they’re often completely finished.
Gibson was the goods until he wasn’t.
Holtby, Price and Ward are other ones.
Question for the group, if Lavoie has an Alex Chiasson like career, would that beat your expectations for him?
No. I would hope and expect for a better scoring career for Lavioe. Nothing wrong with Chiasson’s career, but it was pretty vanilla.
now if Lavioe can have a 10 year career like Chiasson; but get 25+ goals on 3 or 4 occasions, now we are talking.
I definitely wouldn’t say ‘no’ to a 650 game career with 15-15-30 boxcars per 82 from Lavoie at this stage.
We can hope for more 20 goal seasons as jtblack says, but that definitely wouldn’t be a reasonable expectation for me.
Not sure if you looked, but their final AHL seasons were quite similar too (Lavoie with the edge).
Both were at age 22 as well (assuming Lavoie graduates).
Alex Chiasson 57 13-22-35 +3 43PIM
Raphael Lavoie 61 25-20-45 +10 47PIM
Both guys were picked #38 overall as well, I did not know that.
I did look. 🙂
Well done. Interesting comparable on so many levels.
I don’t know what I expected before the ‘pop.’ Maybe a Chiaisson-like career if he was lucky. Nothing promised, but I now place his best scenario ceiling higher.
Since Chiasson is currently sitting 19th in career goals, 26th in career points and 30th in career games among those drafted in 2009 for a guy chosen 38th overall, he has covered the bet placed on him with that pick.
Not a home run, but a very good use of a pick for the Stars, who after 1 decent season out of him once he made the league full time, used him as a key part of a package to trade for Spezza.
Lavoie may have more talent but to have a career as good as or better than Chiarelli, he is going to need to come close to matching Chiasson’s drive and commitment to do what it took to get into and remain in the NHL.
Let’s be optimistic that Lavoie has a better career than Chiarelli.
That would mean 2 Stanley Cups instead of 1. Let’s hope Lavoie’s does that with the Oilers 🙂.
Very interesting article to read on these slow days…
Rudi Ball: The Jewish ice hockey star who represented and survived Nazi Germany – BBC Sport
What some people had to go through. Sheesh.
PLD for RNH + . I wonder if that would make sense
RNH has a NMC.
And what makes you think PLD would sign with the Oilers?
To win the cup
Perhaps, but I thought he’s been clear for years about wanting to play in Montreal.
but Nuge is better and cheaper and won’t be ditching in one-year
Maybe better in the regular season, but in the playoffs give me PLD
Are you sure?
PLD was 4-9 goals at 5 on 5 vs. Vegas – about the same as Nuge was in the playoffs.
PLD had 4 points in 5 games, RNH had 11 in 12.
Nuge struggled, I’m not saying he didn’t but he was very good at 5 on 5 last year in the playoffs and lets not forget his PK ability – PLD doesn’t PK at all.
Copy Cat League. Looking at Vegas, they are a big, heavy team throughout their lineup. They only have a few small guys (marsheseaullt, r. smith?).
Lavioe is 6’4″. Holloway is 6’2″. They represent cheap labor and both have unknown upside.
Woodcroft should have both of these guys playing meaningful minutes right from puck drop in October. Give them a chance on skill lines. No offense to any particular player but the REALITY is our 2 smallest forwards were the worst two in the playoffs (NUGE, YAMO). Size matters. Skill matters as well, but marrying Size and Skill is the play for the Cup.
For small players they have to have an elite skill. I think most need to also have a great first step and also edges (separation) so they can skate better than bigger players to compensate for not truly being able to battle physically
It also helps to be a great shooter so they can score from distance like Caufield can. Nuge and Yama have either. Nuge is an excellent passer but if there is no play he’s hooped. Which is why he’s great on PP and less so at evens
If your a tiny skilled player and you finish 339 place in scoring playing top 6 with 2 MVP Centres your N.H.L days are numbered.
Is Yama that skilled at the NHL level? Lots of players have scored 20 and gone on heaters and been meh the rest of the time. He also isn’t good defensively anymore but given how many players have tanked defensively in the last years it’s probably a lot to do with the coaches
If it isn’t coaches get them out. A GM with decades of experience should be able to tell
Luszczyszyn: How unprecedented luck has the Golden Knights close to a Stanley Cup
Interesting. What that says to me is given how close the Oilers were in most of those games, if I’m Holland I’m foaming at the mouth to sort out the last few details the team needs sorted
It’s highly unlikely that happens again for them. I’d be making sure the staff are super supportive of and communicating with young players especially those trying to make the team, and anyone else who needs to work on something in particular. I’d be asking the coaches what changes they are going to make to improve evens and defensive play
Yup, it was very close (the Oilers actually spent more time with the lead than Vegas).
Individual improvements and relatively minor adjustments should go a long way. Have to assume the 2nd round exit is a strong motivator for everyone.
A little more finish was needed. While some may attribute that to puck luck, I do think that the series would have turned out differently if someone with better finishing ability was playing on Leon’s wing in place of Yamamoto. I love Kailer’s motor, but he’s a 3rd or 4th line winger at best on a Cup team.
I think a bunch of things could have made a difference, better finishing among them. A few saves would have had a major impact as well.
In terms of Kailer on Leon’s wing, they only played 36 min together (Leon played 99 without Kailer, 68 of that at even strength).
In the 36 minutes together (all at even strength):
Shots were 21-20
xGoals were 1.30-1.07
HD scoring chances were 7-5
Goals were 2-6 (2-5 at 5v5)
Finishing wasn’t the issue. 6 goals going in off 5 HD scoring chances was the issue. 6 goals against on 20 shots.
Looks like they had a .795 PDO when together, on the back of a .700 on ice SV%.
They’d have needed to shoot 30% to break even. 🤷
Kailer had his chances though … lots of glorious chances to score throughout the playoffs. But repeatedly, he couldn’t lift the puck high enough off the ice. Most of the time, he would shoot the puck straight into the goalies chest/pads, or miss the net entirely. Finishing is a problem for Yamamoto … he has no business being on a 2nd line on a contending team with a muffin shot like that.
Just like Jesse, shooting ability is the skill that keeps Yamo from being more than a 3rd or 4rth line winger. Unlike Jesse, he has other skills that will keep him employed for a long time in the NHL and a bottom 6 forward.
Draisaitl needs someone with a legit NHL shot on his wing … at 5v5, Leon is pass happy (he only looks to shoot first on the PP). I really want to see Lavoie stapled to Leon’s wing for the first 10 games of next season.
For sure, Yamamoto was snake bit these playoffs. And it was a tough year for him overall. Clearly a quality sniper on Draisaitl’s wing would be a very nice thing.
Yamamoto has shot 15.1% since he’s been an NHL regular though. That’s 35th of the 276 forwards who’ve played 200+ games in the last 4 seasons (87th percentile in shooting percent).
Lavoie is only at 11.4% in the AHL (though he does shoot more, at least at that level), and he hasn’t scored that many more AHL goals than Yamamoto has scored in the NHL.
I’m not sure expecting Lavoie to score more than Yamamoto would on Draisaitl’s wing (or have comparable GF/GA results) is very reasonable. We’ll see where it all goes though.
For me it doesn’t matter what numbers say it matters how you play when it counts
Aggregate stats don’t explain who you scored against and when. Nuge had a 100 pt season and was useless in the playoffs. It doesn’t matter why just that he didn’t help at the most crucial time
Lots of players are injured. Yet their teams progress. If the Oilers were heavily injured again in playoffs, you have to wonder why the coaches have skill players hitting. Utter stupidity. Finish checks yes, pound guys no
Even Maurice saw the folly of his team doing exactly what the Oilers tried against Vegas and lost, because they weren’t playing enough good hockey, trying to be ruffians I imagine to appease playoffs past
Is Lavoie a left winger-I think that was his position in Bakersfield – or a right winger the position he played in juniors.
or is this quivering?
lavoie played primarily left wing in bako last year but he is a right shot who has played a ton of rw in his career also. Similarily to zach hyman who is a right shot but often plays left wing.
Wow guys, our gracious host helped me out and got me back on the site sooooooo
brobergstans back, alright!
very interesting to consider brodziak, i had forgotten that camp and the way he came in so it was a great refresher.
There are several players that are pushing HARD, kostin seems to be pushing hard for more mins, holloway is as yellow a banana as i have seen, and lavoie seems to be on the cusp. I jsut hope all 3 can have a great summer of training and blow the doors off in camp.
Connor brown has been postulated about relentless on every blog in this city but I do have another free agent that i would be targetting the heck out of.
andreas johnsson. Blinding speed, nice shot, needs to rebuild his stock, and he is very familiar with zach hyman. at a league minimum deal to have the opportunity to play and rebuild stock he could be a very nice complimentary piece. He could play 3rd line and moonlight in the top 6 if need arose.
This is a guy who had 20 goals on the leafs just a few yrs ago.
Player Season Totals – Natural Stat Trick
comparo to yammo over 3 yrs 5v5 he has better xgf%, better hdcf% and better cf% all whilst playing with much worse players than yammo had.
Yammo.
XGF% 49.72%
HDCF% 50.92%
GF% 54.98 %
CF% 49.8 %
points/60
goals/60
ixg/60
Yawnson
XGF% 51.42%
HDCF% 53.85%
GF% 51.87 %
CF% 51.73%
points/60
goals/60
ixg/60
this is a cheap and dirty yammo replacement who is motivated to be in the league, can be had for incredibly cheap, and costs nothing to aquire.
I have not watched a ton of tape on this player but his specialty seems to be scoring in tight from what i can ascertain and seems to be an even strength player. alongside high quality linemates his confidence would be boosted and he could regain some of his mojo. He is definitely not a defense first but as a budget friendly yammo replacement he has some merit.
Andreas Johnsson (#18) All 20 Goals of the 2018-19 NHL Season – YouTube
If you can move on from yammo and replace with johnsson at a league min deals 2.4 million bucks which would go a long ways towards bouchard, kostin, and mcleods raises.
something along the lines of.
Nuge-Mcd-Hyman
Holloway-Drat-Kane
Foegele-Mcleod-Johnsson
Kostin-Ryan-Lavoie
nurse-ceci
ek-bouche
kulak-bro/desharnais
With
bouche at 4.3
mcleod at 1.65
kostin at 1.35
lavoie, johnsson, and ryan all at 850 or less.
fits neatly into the salary cap
Johnsson.s cap hit was $3,400,000 last year. Why do you assume he’ll sign anywhere for league minimum?
because he played 13 games in the nhl and spent the rest of the time in the AHL and cleared waivers. As a 1 yr deal to go to a contendor and set himself up for a raise next offseason when the cap goes up it is a prudent move.
The same reason that Bjugstad has to sign two one-year $900K deals coming off a $4.1MM X 6 deal…..
Interesting player, to be sure. Should be good target for a show me deal, but not sure if he comes at league minimum, depending on competition from other bidders if they arise, might be 1.5-2.25M maybe? still worth a short deal at that rate?
Great info from Adam Sherren as well, agree that it’s worth publishing online.
Hopefully the Oilers does bring Rochette or similar into the organization.
I was wondering your thoughts though. With the multiple AHL deals there aren’t a ton of open spots in Bakersfield for next year. And you also published a list of veteran pros you think are worthy adds.
My question is how many young, and how many older, free agents could/should the Condors realistically add? And at what positions?
A couple of Dmen seems obvious, but I wonder if they have room for more than 1-2 more forwards? Just curious your take.
I’m calling it. If the Oilers sign Brogan Rafferty as a group 6 FA, then they will the Stanley Cup this year.
Not because of any material contribution to the Oilers, but because that’s the kind of synchronicities my universe runs on.
A certain troll will come on to tell us how much Brogan Rafferty sucks, which will trigger the universe to bestow upon the Oilers a reverse curse so powerful that we will experience Vegas levels of puck luck next season.
The Oilers should sign Brogan (not the serial killer) and play him at 2RW.
Does your universe see a Conn Smythe for him as well in this scenario? Dream in color, not black and white!!!
As you say, those numbers are very encouraging.
Hopefully Holloway is a fixture this year, Lavoie makes an impact in camp and beyond, and Bourgault isn’t too far behind.
The door is wide open for at least one of these guys, ideally two, to make a significant contribution in the bigs this year. Holloway has the best starting position, but if the bat is shy then Lavoie could be tonic on a line that pots some goals. And Bourgault’s smarts have him shining brightly by the numbers. Can’t wait for TC and their stories to unfold.
For sure. I think Holloway will be a contributor, just uncertain of the ceiling. If Lavoie can bring goals then he should have a career. And no idea what the future holds for Bourgault. So much junior offense, but a well-rounded game with modest offense in AHL year 1. Hopefully he can bring both and make this a huge growth year.
This feels like a Chorney/Petry/Wild situation.
Odds are, one of these players will emerge as a quality NHL player. Expecting more isn’t wise.
It is a somewhat similar situation.
The current crew are 1st/1st/2nd round picks though, vs. 2nd/2nd/5th (IIRC) for the earlier group.
I think expecting more than 1/3 from this group is entirely reasonable.
I was going to say the same thing, 2/2/5th round picks, being defensemen, going the university route, etc. But then I came up with a more similar comparison with draft pedigree, position etc from LTs post; Gagner, Schremp, Pouliot. Turns out it is still a 1/3.
All we need now is Tulio to Brodziak up and eat someone lunch. 😀
(That aside, I do think you’re right, 1/3 might be on the low side for expectations.)
Yeah that’s definitely a more similar group for comparison. I feel like Holloway is already an NHLer as well, so he’s half way across the line for ‘quality’ NHLer. We will see.
If Lavoie breaks camp on the big club, that would be a huge story.
He came on late last year based on what I read here, and it seems like sometimes prospects like Lavoie still need to start in the AHL to build their confidence and then jump to the big club.
There’s a big opp for him here now. It will be interesting to watch and hopefully he’s training his ass off this summer.
lavoie did suffer some injuries over his career which can sometimes set players back more than others. i have high hopes for him
Yes, training his ass off this summer is an important point to note.
Lets not forget, he had major knee surgery last spring – he was rehabbing during the summer, as opposed to “hockey training” and wasn’t even fully healthy to participate in cap and the beginning of the season.
He should be set-up much better this camp to compete for an opportunity to play prove himself in the regular season