We’re two weeks out from the 2023 entry draft and some big lists are being published. I always like to check my list against the annual arrivals to see if there’s some exceptional value (or a player is falling for an unknown reason). Turns out, there are a few this time.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers fan survey results: Belief remains in team’s Stanley Cup window
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
THE BUTTON LIST
Craig Button has USHL forward Jayden Perron listed No. 88 and I have him No. 23. Why the gap? He is a small forward. In the first half of the season (30 games) he scored 14-16-30. In the following 30 games, he scored 10-31-41. He’s highly skilled, not a burner but has great edges (RLR says he “can really skate”). Red Line has him at No. 64, and his scouting report is a little too close to Kailer Yamamoto for the Oilers to be comfortable imo. I’d take him, as the only problem with KY is his contract (and injuries this season). I’m not moving him down my list.
I have Kalan Lind, a WHL winger, at No. 39. Button has him No. 74, RLR matches my ranking (39) and a reminder I published before ordering the report. Lind has an NHLE of 25, Red Line compares him in style to Ridly Greig. Redline spends time talking about coaches trusting him with defensive assignments. He would be a great pick at No. 56 overall.
I have RHD Cam Allen at No. 44 and all hell is breaking loose. Button has him No. 96, RLR at 61 but calls him a huge disappointment. Brock Otten at OHL prospects is holding steady (ranks him No. 15 among OHL prospects) and says “I refuse to believe that Cam Allen is as bad as he was at times this year.” I’m keeping him at No. 44, because my list is math, but he’s got some question marks around him. The Oilers will have to make the call if he’s available.
I have Beau Akey No. 48, Button his him No. 94 and Redline 75. RLR calls him an elite skater with loads of puck skill. I’ll be genuinely surprised if he’s available when Edmonton’s turn arrives.
I have Andrei Loshko No. 49, Button doesn’t have him ranked and Redline has him No. 144. He’s way too skilled to have this wide a range. We’ll see.
I have Yegor Sidorov No. 50 overall Button doesn’t have him and RLR says No. 68 and compares him in style to Andrew Mangiapane. He would be a fine selection.
Bottom line, there is way more sway in my top 50 than most strong draft seasons allow. That’s a very good sign for the Oilers, who need one of these promising youngsters to shoot the gap and be available at No. 56 overall or later. I’ll be honest, Sidorov might be a player who goes after No. 100 overall but I’d be fine with any of these names, including Allen, at No. 56 overall. Edmonton needs to shoot the moon, it’s a death or glory draft in the Alberta capital.
STEVE STAIOS
The Ottawa Senators sale has finally gone through and it’s Michael Andlauer. Rumours have been out there for some time that involve Steve Staios being hired in the general manager role. A secondary rumour had the Oilers elevating Staios to GM or GM next year title, but we’ll have to see how things come out in the wash.
I wrote this yesterday and then got deeper into the QMJHL so deleted it. This is a possible roster if the club decides to pursue Travis Konecny and gets him without offloading a major contract. The details:
- Warren Foegele to Washington for a fourth-round pick
- Cody Ceci, Kailer Yamamoto and the 2024 first-round pick to Philadelphia for Travis Konecny.
- Evan Bouchard on an extreme value deal, plus Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin and Raphael Lavoie on team friendly contracts for 2023-24.
- Re-signing Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan.
- Signing Niko Mikkola because I like him and Edmonton is running below the danger line on Finns.
Konency is a consistent offensive performer whose rel possession numbers at five-on-five are strong (he hasn’t had a negative CorsiRel number in five years, I love that kind of player card). I can’t for the life of me figure out how they can get him on this roster without ribbing some fibreglass but we’ll see.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
It’ll be a big day on the show, breaking news out of Ottawa with an Edmonton connection, final hockey game of the season, and more. 10-2, TSN 1260 Bruce Arthur and more guests, text 10-1260 or tweet @Lowetide. Talk soon!
per DNB on the athletic. Quote from kenny holland. I wish the best for noah philp and his family and hope he can
Now, Philp is not playing hockey next year. He’s made a decision to call it a career. It was a very, very difficult year for him. He told us he wants to be around Calgary and close to his family and friends. For personal reasons, he’s not playing hockey.
He made great progress. We liked him. We wanted to re-sign him. We offered him a two-year contract. We were anxious to see what he could do in training camp. But he’s not interested.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman@DNBsports
Nice info from @PuckPedia that Derek Ryan represented himself in negotiations.
Quote Tweet
4:29 PM · Jun 13, 2023·11.3KViews
————————
PuckPedia@PuckPedia
The #LetsGoOiler
signed 36 y/o UFA F Derek Ryan to 2 year $900K Cap Hit Deal
Yr 1 775K Salary & 125K Signing Bonus
Yr 2 900K Salary
Does not include trade protection
Was eligible for 1 yr deal w/ perf bonuses as 35+
Ryan rep’d himself
13G 20P in 80GP
4:22 PM · Jun 13, 2023·83.4K Views
Teams window should have closed when they fucked up the Dadanov trade.
The amount of talk about depth with nary a mention of cap circumvention.
Management is easier when you don’t inherit a history.
Officials with thumb on the scale. Was gross and obvious. AP shouldn’t have been on the ice. Again.
Didn’t watch past period 1, VGK are too tacky. There are some reasons beyond roster construction and statistical analysis why you cheer in sports. I don’t have to like them because they’re good, and I can dislike them for their theatrics.
Boo Vegas!
I am not sure if it injury, but those were on average the shortage duration Cup lifts I can remember.
I can’t help but think shoulder injuries and arm/hand injuries…anyone else get that vibe?
Oilers lose to cup winner Avs in 2022. Oilers lose to cup winner Knights in 2023. They’re close.
Best scenario to me for the team is the Ottawa news puts Staois as GM. No one else seems ready within, with a proven record of actual GM ish experience at the NHL level
Time to make some hard changes Holland won’t. Kenny can be POHO
Chucky out with a broken sternum
Ouch
Payback for being a goof, he earned it
The worst for me is the constant face punches when the refs are holding guys in scrums he never gets called for
But he was trying to run guys and got caught himself for once
MacCrimmon says health was a factor. They also weren’t coming out to thug things up even if willing to. I don’t like Woody wanting everyone to hit. It’s foolish. Time and place
@JonathanWillis
One nice thing about Vegas winning: it should amp up pressure on NHL GMs.
– You can’t just trade for a No. 1 C
– You can’t just sign a top D
– You can’t just trade for a Selke level gamebreaker like Mark Stone
– We don’t have the cap space
Apparently you can, can, can and do.
Yes yes and yes and please
Hilarious it’s a minus. Tampa also proved the model. And Colorado. You only grow off the vine if you don’t have talent. If you have it, times a wastin’
And Florida last year’s Pres Trophy and finalist this year
Other major sports better teams are also not hand sitters
The odds to win the 2024 cup are out.
Colorado leads the pack at -800.
Worth a unit.
For you. Cup or bust for me
Oilers second at -900.
Get in early if you believe it.
Thanks for that, but isn’t the money in long shots?
Congrats to Vegas but had Oilers had themselves a Bulin Wall level goalie it might have been the Oilers winning the cup tonight.
Goaltending sewers another season.
Angry Prediction: If they don’t improve radically in goal Draisaitl walks.
The forwards don’t backtrack hard consistently, and are pretty soft on the wall in the d-zone.
Truth. Long shifts, often terrible line changes, poor sticks, weak finishing, poor puck management and support
Reg season they can outscore the sloppiness and high danger plays etc. That’s not what works in playoffs. Florida had a great run but it was hugely fortunate. The Oilers overplay top players. It seems the Oilers still believe in the incredible recuperation abilities of their talent that have been mentioned publicly. Despite it being mentioned by other teams and hockey people as a mistake, that I’ve read, and also believe
A whole arena of people who don’t even know how to react.
This is so brutal. They couldn’t just give the Conn Smythe to Bettman??
I’d give it to the refs. And the gambling corporations who helped sponsor the NHL and make everything possible.
I have to admit, I don’t understand your gambling position hunter.
Cheaper tickets than otherwise, cheaper non-pay TV (remember when all the teams were going to PPV??), and maybe one day some reffing accountability sounds pretty good to me.
The NHL used to be free on TV.
No ads on the ice, a clean pure game that’s increasingly morphing into another Bud Light show lol
I had forgotten Phil Kessell was on this team
FLA should trade goalie Bob after this.
He’s gone from negative value to someone willing to pay for him. And they have goalies behind him.
We’ll see if they know what they’re doing down there.
I’d like to see if they know what they’re doing here.
No team is going to take on that contract straight up – it remains a massive negative value contract.
Commence the 48 hour period until the buyout period opens.
I presume this means Friday but maybe Thursday……
Some may feel the Oiler’s went backwards this season since they didn’t make the Conference Finals. However, it should be noted that they lost both seasons to the eventual Cup winner (yeah technically the game isn’t over, but I doubt Florida can top the Miracle on Manchester in the last 6 minutes). Unfortunately the Oilers had had to face the cup winner one round sooner this season. Not only did the Oilers put up a much better fight this season, losing in 6 and not in 4, they led in all 6 games and trounced Vegas in 2 of them. Finally, it sure seems like the Oilers were the toughest opposition that Vegas faced this playoffs.
Ultimately, the Oilers didn’t achieve their goal, so it is an unsuccessful season, and they will have to come back next season and keep improving to get to the pinnacle. But the Oilers are very close. I fully expect, if everyone is healthy at the start of the season, the Oilers will go into the season as one of the top 3 or 4 favorites for the 2024 cup.
45 regulation wins is a pretty strong regular season. Winning the cup is hard.
Apparently, the Oilers are already number 2 for next season according to MGM. A lot can change between now and puck drop in October.
It all comes down to 5v5. If they don’t get better, the results will not change. Same players or not. Luck and bounces can mean a final appearance. Most often it’s not enough at that a point. It’s been this way for years for our guys
MacCrimmon sums it up
“It’s broken alright.
It’s as broken as broken can be.
Best to fix it. And I strongly suspect that’s exactly what’s going to happen.”
So Bill Foley said the Knights would win the cup in year 6…and here we are.
One season slower than the Oilers in large part because of Pocklington’s shrewd signing of Gretzky to the personal services contract so the NHL couldn’t take him away.
Much harder to do with a 32 team league and a salary cap aimed at parity.
Nope – VGK and Seattle were given a head start over new franchises (even WHA ones) of yore. It’s still impressive what Vegas have done, in going all in, taking risks like on Eichel’s neck and using the Kucherov trick.
The results speak for themselves.
Yet you attempted to speak on the results behalf and failed miserably.
Phhhtt.
Winning a cup now is much harder.
They did and, aside from a better batch of players they chose from, they had the ADVANTAGE of starting from scratch in the cap era – having not bad cap contracts on their books is a HUGE advantage.
Hockey is such an amazing game. High skill -check. Systems – check. Speed – big check. Speed, speed, speed. But emotion can often top the list. A period like this can fool me into forgetting that their is so little difference between winning and losing at this level.
And so, my LT friends, another season comes to an end. It was the best of times. It was not the worst of times but it sometimes felt like it. Take care all until next fall. Cheers.
And thanks LT for such a great cafe.
Mark Stone is an awesome hockey player even with a surgical back
So envious
5-1 Vegas late in the 2nd
Should be quite a party on the strip tonight
..and another 1 for good measure
Party by those in the stands. Not sure too many other people care
No nine lives for these Cats.
tremendous killer instinct being displayed by Vegas mid second period. Hard to imagine a come back by the kitty cats. Solid in all aspects those kniggits.
Once again , their incredible depth paying off.
A team without a weakness is a very rare bird.
It’s a schooling by MacCrimmon. Missing this year’s 2nd and that’s it that matters. Assesses, according to him, team weakness and fills it assertively
They won’t be quite the same next season as they according to CF have to shed about 6M in cap and sign a goalie to be under 83.5M
Isn’t this a fella the Oilers could have hired potentially? The other guy Zito? But I give some negatives to Zito for hiring Maurice. Luck made him look good, but he’s getting owned now. Absolutely wrong plan against a strong side pressure, protect the house team like Vegas
Our guy made the same mistake, ‘plant seeds by being physical’, we have more skill so it was closer, but the Panther’s D zone play looks saddeningly familiar
$8.3 million in cap space with Lehner on LTIR.
Easy peasy.
Right. If he comes back they’ll lose a guy or two. Hard to say with that fella. I’m sure his body is better
He needs the money
Forgot about that
He gets the money either way.
Pretty sure he’s done.
Rare? there’s one every year!
I so wish the Oilers would play that smart and purposeful. And have such competent players in the bottoms
With Connor to boot it would be a thing
Effective depth. Makes such a difference.
I think it’s very much based on a strong structure, an effective system, and no choice but to play it
That makes normal players far better and average goalies look good. Think about who they had in net this season. It would have been no playoffs for us. Also 6 competent full game D. Massively helps the bottom 6
Gregor speculating that McLeod will come in around $2M per.
He also mentioned is his piece at ON that Shore will not return
Yikes. That’s a big deal.
Yup. Too much for his overall play and the tight cap. Give me 82 consistent games as the C of a playable 3rd line all playoffs and decent points, and then some salary
McLeod had quite a productive season – injuries curtailed his stats (and momentum, etc.).
True so don’t pay him until he does it
Gretzky (Wayne) was on Oilers Now yesterday and mentioned something I found interesting.
Recall prior to the season, I think it was on the TNT panel, Wayne mentinoned that Skinner’s someone fans need to watch out for this season.
Stauff was given Gretz his kudos on that and Wayne mentioned that he talks to his brother alot who, of course is in Bakersfield, and Keith couldn’t say enough about Stuart – said he was one of the “best players in the AHL” – not one of the best goalies but one of the overall best players.
— Re: Staois. The only place rumours are flowing that he’s a candidate in Ottawa is the Oilers letting it be”known”
— The reason for this is so that in the now likely event he does get a big promotion they have cover:”we had to get this guy before Ottawa did”
— Contrast this with the very thorough and meticulous job just conducted by the Raptors and their new head coach. For sure the raptors used the process to evaluate themselves and get a sense of what others thought of team and learned a lot
— This is a more vigorous process than leaking to press that the only guy we looked at is wanted elsewhere
after digesting another article on the Athletic, how worried are people that Bouch and McLeod get offersheeted away?
Can you at least link to this terrifying piece?
(without reading – not particularly worried since the player has to sign an offer sheet – ie. want to leave – in order for them to be offersheeted away)
https://theathletic.com/4603870/2023/06/13/nhl-rfas-offer-sheets-2023/?source=user_shared_article
A 7X$6 million offer would destroy the Oilers cap.
In the unlikely event that happens (both that kind of offer is made, and he signs it) and the Oilers choose not to match, they could pivot and use the 1st and 2nd they get for compensation as part of an offer to San Jose for Karlsson.
Yes they could.
But if San Jose retained 50% the cap hit for Karlsson would still be $5.75 million.
Theycould get another team involved but that would cost another asset.
The Oilers could also contact NSH and try to get Barrie back
Overall, I have zero concern about any Oiler signing an offer sheet.
As far as specifics on the two players:
Bouch at $6MM for 7 years is a fantastic team friendly deal – Holland would match in an instant and they’d have to figure some stuff out – what a steal that would be going forward though – can’t see him signing that deal at all.
I presume McLeod files for arbitration if they don’t have a deal in place by the deadline – no offer sheet available after that.
I’ve said before that the valuation on Bouchard is challenging.
For JP’s sake, I’m not saying these players are comparable to Bouchard, but there are comparable issues.
Offensive d often get wildly overpaid.
I remember when giveaway Gilbert had a 45 point season on the back of a pile of second assists and was given a contract not commensurate to his abilities .
Nearly half of Bouchard’s points for the past three seasons at 5v5 are second assists.
Then offensive d always seem to get paid too much. Yandle and guys like that since then.
Anyway, this works to our advantage because the difficulties putting a number on Bouchard’s contract extend to other teams.
How does Bouchard look when not paired with Ekholm and playing on the Oilers top power play unit? That’s difficult question to answer.
Interesting take.
Over the past 2 seasons Bouchard was 27th of 84 Dmen in % 2nd assists at 5v5 (44.6% of his points). So 32nd percentile among this group.
-the 84 defensemen came from:
1) 1500 minutes at 5v5
2) Dmen who’d scored at least 35 5v5 points (arbitrary but I figured it was better to remove guys who contribute little/no offense)
-2 seasons because Bouchard barely played in 20-21
Among the 27 Dmen with higher 2nd assist % than Bouchard are: Toews, Doughty, Girard, Slavin, McAvoy, Petry, Chychrun, Heiskanen, Fowler, Seider, Weegar, Pionk.
Bouchard is 18th in 5v5 points, so ahead of everyone I just listed aside from Toews (he does have 1 more primary point than Toews though). I guess I should be doing points/game here though since Bouchard has been healthier and played more games than most.
Other Oilers (or former) D among the 84 are Nurse (51st – 37.3%), Ekholm (61st – 32.6%) and Barrie (80th – 26.3%). So they would all be below/well below average in 2nd assist contributions to their scoring.
All that said, offensive Dmen do get paid. And often it isn’t commensurate with their contributions (fans sure weren’t enamored with Tyson Barrie when he was an Oiler).
So what would you pay Bouchard if you were Holland? Sounds like you might trade him, or at least be in favor of a bridge deal?
He looked from the stats pieces I read like the team’s best outletting passer by a mile and best at denying zone entries
He’s weak in zone at times but no Oiler D was great, Ekholm being the best by eye, but he faded as well the more he played Woody’s sytem. It’s the goofy system. Drai and Nuge used to be good defensive players. Connor is good now but can’t crush outscoring. Ridiculous to me. The guys that took them out specifically said they could break the D structure
Nurse didn’t have the same strengths he used to. When a team struggles with this much talent you have to look at the people deciding on systems. Regular season means nothing to me except seeding. At the top or at the bottom (to draft higher)
They struggle mightily against good teams in the post season when the opposing coaches can game plan for a series and make adjustments that aren’t made reg season. Flattop plugging and thugging things up still confounds Woody. So he decided the Oilers should thug Vegas, unfortunately can’t plug
We hope for the best…… Hopefully Woody learned enough and is watching how it’s done well
Credit to Kenny and Co. for signing Ryan to a deal under $1MM. I don’t mind the term, as others have mentioned it’s low enough to bury in the AHL and he’s a solid mentor to have around the team even if/when he’s not playing.
Smart players like him who make full use of his limited skill with his brains and work ethic are an important part of a team built to contend. On a value contract, no less.
No one else seems to have mentioned it, but with Ryan having signed a 2 year deal, if the Oilers need to waive him during the first season of his deal, the extra year would probably dissuade some other teams from grabbing him.
With this contract, the risk is really only the owner’s money. Holland never seems to operate at 50 contracts anyway, so he really won’t block anyone.
Its interesting that Ceci is noted as an “overpriced contact that could get traded” but Yamo didn’t make the list:
https://theathletic.com/4604873/2023/06/13/nhl-trades-overpriced-contracts/
I would argue that Ceci is “more value for contract” than Yamamoto and its highly arguable that in 2021/22, when he wasn’t hurt, Ceci was on a value contract.
Both have the ability to be value for current cap hit but I think that Ceci has the higher likelihood of “bouncing back” as I’m just not sure that Yamo can, or is able to, play the same tenacious game that provides himself with success – hopefully he can, wherever that may be.
I would argue the same.
I agree with that, but have also found it weird to read things like ‘Yamamoto isn’t the answer at 2RW, but Foegele has been solid in the bottom 6’ as rationale for Yamamoto being the obvious one to move. That sleight of word, essentially, has been repeated by a bunch of writers in the last month.
Anyway, I agree that Ceci is more valuable to the Oilers (in his role and at his cap hit) than Yamamoto is. I think they’re both highly likely to rebound, but a competent 1RD at $3.25M is extreme value.
You’ve been on twitter (and elsewhere) though. Quite a portion of people think Ceci is trash. NHL_Sid, for instance, thinks DeMelo is a major upgrade (was even going to include Broberg in the trade, if you recall). So I don’t think it’s that surprising Ceci pops up in an article like this.
Good take. For me the Oilers need more speed and defensive awareness in the top 6. I feel Yama has had his chance. The issue with Foegele is he’s fine at his cap when he shows up, but there were a lot of games where he didn’t. Made a lot of mistakes. When he’s off it’s a drag on rotations
Nuge isn’t a strong helper 5v5 at least when it counts for whatever reasons. Kostin hasn’t shown he can become stable so he’s basically an extra forward until he can show it
Ceci is fine at his cap hit. For me he’s maxed at 2nd pair because he is not a consistent puck mover and struggles with zone entries according to every look I’ve seen, and by watching him. I also don’t like his mobility but that could because he’s thinking too much because he’s over his head and isn’t reacting quick enough
That is not good for Nurse and is probably hurting him because he will always try to do too much and he’s not good enough when he does that
With Ceci it could be worse, could be better. But definitely more two way consistent forwards are needed so the coach doesn’t overplay the duo constantly and they can get used to rolling lines in difficult games not just the easier wins
Nuge isn’t a strong helper 5v5 at least when it counts for whatever reasons.
He definitely didn’t help this playoffs but I would note that last playoffs, Nuge had 5 goals and was 2.49 P/60 at 5 on 5 last playoffs (and McDavid/Leon were loaded up for most of it).
I’m phone bound but I looked at NST for last playoffs and Nuge and Yama got fed far more than the other players in GF % last playoffs as well. Foegele as well
These are the margins that don’t work for a championship
Nuge has always been a marginal 5v5 guy. You have two undersized wingers that struggle that way, and both are non explosive skaters with good edges, neither can shoot when it counts. and it’s like short handed for the top two C. Perimeter cycling, mostly ineffective point shots, and not much in actual HDSC
Nuge would be better in a 5v5 system that he could use his passing in, if there were players going to open scoring positions. And decided that top shelf is the way to always shoot for himself
Harman often/usually uses stats in his articles (I thought) so it’s odd for him not to include really any in this one.
Dom’s player ratings have their flaws (some wouldn’t be even that kind) but they do give an unbiased (once the model is set) evaluation of the players in relation to each other, and year to year.
The ratings for the Oilers who make $3M-ish and could conceivably be traded:
(and I guess Dom never did fix whatever that glitch was)
Yamamoto
22-23 1.6 ($5.4M)
21-22 0.7 ($2.8M)
20-21 0.5 ($2.4M)
Foegele
22-23 1.5 ($5.2M)
21-22 0.1 ($1.2M)
20-21 0.9 ($3.5M)
(note salary vs. rating translations are different for forwards and Dmen)
Ceci
22-23 0.7 ($3.6M)
21-22 0.5 ($3.0M)
20-21 0.6 ($3.3M)
Kulak
22-23 1.3 ($5.3M)
21-22 0.1 ($1.6M)
20-21 -0.3 (league min) (Kulak was 1.2 in 19-20)
https://theathletic.com/3989345/2023/01/30/nhl-player-cards-edmonton-oilers-2/
I just noticed I used the ‘projected’ number for 22-23, so both Yamamoto and Foegele got a bump due to pro-rating the games they missed (Yamamoto’s actual was 1.1, Foegele’s was 1.2).
Not entirely sure what the take-home is from the numbers. Ceci is consistent, seemingly. Though the model thinks he was the worst player this season.
All of them had pretty good seasons actually (pro-rating Yamamoto’s season makes it look very much like last season except that the on ice impacts were better).
Foegele and Kulak also had nice years after trying ones previously (Kulak’s in Montreal).
So pretty much the only thing I have read and liked for trade rumours was Brett Pesce. Just out of curiosity what would 1 year of him cost? Ceci for sure, a prospect like Bourgault and what kind of picks?
I would want a sign and trade to make the deal worthwhile. Carolina may be testing the market to see if they can get a deal they cannot refuse, but since they are a contender are likely to keep him.
I really don’t see what the Oilers can offer that would help Carolina with or without an extension.
The right defence on todays suggested roster is like an out of control train heading towards the play-offs. Oh my.
Lot of talk re: Konecny
Last 6 years games played:
81
82
66
50
79
60 .. 2022-23
I like the player, do think he is an upgrade on Yamamoto, do like the RW upgrade overall.
5’10”, 175 lbs = on the smaller side and prone to the same injury concerns as Yamamoto
Would not look at this until the deadline unless I got a more favourable deal.
If Broberg is involved that looks a lot like:
Yamamoto, Broberg
FOR
Konecny ($4.0 million retained at $2.0 million a year) and the Oilers 4th rounder 2023
They get a stud LD and 1 year cover for RW; that’s lots imo.
Also, really liked the Ryan contract. REALLY liked it. Smart player, great mentor, probable future Oilers coach (if he wants it), $350k cut from his last salary, can be completely buried in the minors.
100% a win imo.
Recall the pandemic. That’s responsible for most of those games lost.
Flyers games played the same years:
82
82
69
56
82
82
So just like Yamamoto, Konecky pretty much only missed games this season.
Yamamoto the last 4 years was:
27 (out of 30 after he was called up)
52
81
58
Yamamoto missed 24 games this season and 8 over the previous 3 seasons.
Konecky missed 22 games this season and 12 over the previous 3 seasons (or 13 over the previous 5 seasons).
Good call re: pandemic effect on the schedule
You can upgrade Yamo by going dumpster diving behind Value Village. I don’t get where all the Broberg trading scenarios are coming from a top 4 D or better on the cheap has great value. Unless of course management knows they have a dud with their #8 pick. Jeez Louise Holland left a bushel full of top 1-6 Forwards in that 2019 draft board.
It’s official. At $900k per year, Derek Ryan has the lowest cap hit to brain cells ratio in the league.
Another smart move. He delivered on his last contract. This time he takes a cut instead of a small raise, but lands a second year. That will be substantially more money at the end of the day.
Oilers have more $ to give out, but little cap room. And that second year can be utilized in several other ways if he loses a step and drops out of the main roster, which I find likely.
It sounds like an agreeable contract to both parties.
Derek Ryan signs a two year deal.
https://twitter.com/tyleryaremchuk/status/1668696300232257539?s=20
2 years at $900K
https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1668697953371041792?s=20
I think I would have preferred a 1 year deal, but, yeah, OK
Yeah…the second year is puzzling.
Could prove to be an impediment for a young player.
Assuming Capfriendly is correct, the salary structure is $900/$900k with no bonuses, so it can be buried without the 35+ implications, but yeah
More than I would’ve wanted to pay in dollars and term, but if he can’t play anymore then he can be LTIR’d I guess.
On one hand, I get it … he played well last season, so you can’t completely low-ball him. On the other hand … where else was he going to play next season? Calgary I guess might have wanted him. Otherwise, you’re kind of bidding against yourself, as this player would have had to go into a very uncertain UFA market, with the prospect of having uprooting his family in search of a better contract.
That being said, I can’t remember the last time Oiler’s Twitter was in complete agreement with a transaction of Holland’s.
Wouldn’t you think it’s more of an issue this year vs. next? Lavoie and Philp would both have to clear waivers this season. Don’t believe there’s anyone in that next tier who has to clear next season (Bourgault, Tulio, Savoie, Petrov).
Do like the contract number, Oilers need value contracts and at $900k, there’s a chance that could deliver.
The 2nd year means no one will claim him on waivers.
At $900K. I think that is highly unlikely.
I don’t think it’s puzzling. He’s probably only playing one more year in the NHL. 2 x $900k is how you get a $1.75ish million player for $900k for the last year of his career.
Not really in this case – if he retires after one year, he still only gets $900k and there is no chance the Oilers sign this contract planning on being back in to LTIR in 2024/25.
Sure, but at 900k it literally doesn’t matter at all. And if the extra year got the AAV down $100 or $200k then it actually makes a ton of sense.
Yes, true, and they can make him go away if his play erodes significantly (AHL)
I’m just not a huge fan of multi year deals at this stage of a players career
I would have preferred a 1 year deal with performance bonuses with a $775k base, and $225k achievable bonuses,(ie: $1M in total compensation) but we’ve beaten that subject to death
brobergstan’s reply to Reja is basically exactly what I was going to say.
Any complaints about this deal I’d think would be pretty minor.
What I find interesting is that after this 2 year contract is complete Ryan will have made 90% of his career earnings after the age of 30. Percentagewise this has to be right up there with only the older Russians and other Communist players coming over in the 80-90’s
i struggle to see how the second year is an issue, gregor reporting that the second year can be fully buried in the ahl without consequence and hints that it has been discussed he could be in a mentorship role in the ahl in yr 2.
I cannot think of a better guy i would want to be around my young prospects teaching them the value of positional hockey and defensive play.
great deal for both sides.
Of course … with the cap going up the year after, so is the mininum contract value that can be fully buried in the AHL without incurring a penalty on the cap.
OK then, great deal. Good job Holland and co.
That number was $1.125M this season, and goes up to $1.15M in 23-24, so Ryan at $900k is well under even without cap increases.
I’m not slagging the deal at all. I just find it interesting to the testament of Mr.Ryan to crave out a journeyman career (NHL) basically starting in his 30’s
I think you would want Philly to retain 50% on Konecny if you made a move for him. Adding him at 5.5M for 2 years seems like you’d have no money to keep the bottom end of the roster good.
It will cost a 1st AND a top prospect like Bourgault (and likely a 2nd) to trade for Konecny.
It will cost an additional 1st, or maybe a 2nd & 3rd (the Kassian price) to retain $2.75M x 2.
At a point the cost of assets out becomes too high.
Connor Brown, a lesser player albeit, costs nothing but money.
Agreed.
Upgrading Yamamoto by sending out:
– Yamamoto
– Foegele
– Ceci or Kulak
– Bourgault
– 1st round pick
(and more if you want salary retention)
Seems a little rich for me (as good as that top 6 looks on paper).
I agree why go Whale hunting when you can offer a Connor Brown or alike with a 1 year contract say for a million rage with the opportunity of a lifetime playing with set-up man Leon or being clean up on aisle 6 for Connor. If you score 25-32 Goals teams will have a bidding war and with the Cap going up big time for you in the 2024 free agency scramble. This is what Holland needs to sell to older lost in the shuffle NHLers who are trying to cash in once more before their careers bottom out.
another option is max pacioretty… proven goal scorer with injury issues can be had on the same small value with incentive bonus deal like conor brown.
It would be a Outstanding deal for both sides if Max still has the will to drive to the net.
Is it impossible this year to save cap space for the deadline? It looks super tight no matter how the Oilers run it this year
We’re gonna see a 20/21 man roster and a ton of paper transactions
If that’s a deal that Philly would accept then, ya, its tough to not consomate, right?
At the same time, that is a TON of pressure on Philip Broberg. Don’t get me wrong, I think he could succeed on Ekholm’s right side but, hot damn, that’s a risk with no veteran cover in behind (and, really, a 3RD that has never played a regular shift in the NHL – he’s mostly been in a 7D set-up, mostly).
I do note that LT has Nurse/Bouchard and Ekholm/Brogerg, while others have opined that Broberg should play with Nurse. I like the above set-up. Bouch needs “McDavid minutes” and Nurse has also thrived with those. Nurse/Bouchard/McDavid and Ekholm/Broberg/Drai – lets go.
Minnesota ran Brock Faber 14 minutes a night in the playoffs … 2020 2nd round pick, who acquitted himself well and will likely get the lion’s share of Dumba’s minutes this coming season.
It’s time for Broberg (a 2019 top 10 pick) to piss or get off the pot.
That said, I’m not advocating trading out Ceci … moving him down the lineup, so that he doesn’t spend so much time playing against elites … sure.
What no one seems to be talking about is that the Oilers had a complete outlier of a season last year in terms of D-men health.
Next season, we are all but guaranteed to see injuries to the top 6 d-men.
A good NHL team has at least 8 D-men with NHL experience on the roster.
We don’t need another 5 million dollar scoring winger to start the season.
Move Yamo and/or Foegele out, to sign Bouchard long-term. Avoid arbitration and get McLeod and Kostin signed. Sign Ryan and Janmark to take the minimum. Let other teams blow their cap space early in the summer, then sign what’s left to bargain deals near the end of the summer.
Let the kids (Lavoie, Holloway, Broberg) break camp with the NHL team
Accrue cap space in-season, figure out what the team’s main weakness in-season and address it at the deadline, using the 2024 first round pick.
It’s boring I know, but it’s also the smart way to do things.
Not that I have any real information to formulate an educated opinion but I like Steve Staios – this is based really off of (1) the verbal around him from those that actually know and (2) his career path in management roles.
I hope he stays in the Oilers organization but, if he’s enticed by the Senators and his existing relationships, it kind of is what it is and I think it behooves the Oilers to, try and maintain Staios’ services but, at the same time, don’t give “too much too early” if that is what is required.
The Oilers have other good (and rising) people in management, right?
keith gretzky has done good work, as has brad holland, we also have bill scott as an AGM who is very good with cap management. Staios is a nice asset to have in the front office but its not like its kenny by himself
Kulak over ceci?
At least you have niemo as 7th Dman to slide in left side if RHD gets hurt and broberg has to go offhand.
I’d prefer yam/foegle out in sone sort of deals for cap and better RW (preferably under 6 M ufa style)
Deadline the defense change.
Kulak is a bona fide #5D on a good contract. 5-tool skillset at that level.
Ceci is a bona fide #6D on a good contract with exploitable limitations in his skillset.
Not that I agree with your valuation of the players, but neither of those are good contracts for a 5/6D (high end #5 were paid $2.5M last season).
Just by eyeball, Kulak isn’t the player Ceci is when healthy. There were moments this season, imo, where Kulak got exposed playing too high too long. I noted quite a few plays where dude’s head just isn’t on a swivel, and you could see the opposition goal coming on yesterday. That said I agree with most that Kulak was gold holding down the bottom pair this postseason.
Its really hard to agree with an opinion that Kulak is a higher lineup player than Ceci when you look at their usage though their entire careers and see that Ceci has played much tougher minutes and the gap is not small.
In my mind I’m sending Jack Campbell to Pennsylvania. Can’t you see the sunshine?
Philly:
Is a talked about outcome. They’re apparently willing to take back overpaid goalies and have an Alberta-bred #1 tendy available via trade.
Can’t you just feel the moonshine? Consider:
Pitt:
New GM inheriting cap problems with. I goalie who has had Jack Campbell as his #1. Has a two-year window to compete.
Is there a trade around Campbell and Ceci going to Pitt for Jeff Petry? Maybe they send along Granlund with salary retained for Yamo?
Now ain’t it just like a friend of mine to hit me from behind? Jack Campbell – going to Pennsylvania in my mind.
Petry, Granlund, DeSmith,
Ceci, Campbell, 2024 1st
Add in Yamamoto and you have a deal
I am assuming Yamamoto could be disposed of elsewhere.
Flyers and Penguins…
are interesting because they’re at opposite poles, and will in roughly two to three years’ time invert.
Daniel Briere has his fan base excited to tank. It worked for the ‘76ers so Philly fans are primed.
The problem with sending Jack Campbell to Philly is that he might (I say might) be a competent netminder and disrupt their tank efforts. He’s also still on the books in 3 years when they desire to be competitive.
Kyle Dubas has a challenging mandate. He’s got to turn a playoff bubble team into a bubble contender in a 2-3 year window. He has some of the leagues worst contracts, no good prospects, and no goalie. In 3 years time the Penguins will (or should) follow Philly into a tank-driven re-build that has served them well in the 80’s and early 2000’s.
Pitt is desperate. Philly is not. I like Pitt as a trade partner for that reason.
I don’t want to deal with Dubas ever since he demanded a 2nd to add a year on Hyman’s contract. No other GM in the league has ever demanded so much, see Severson’s deal as a recent comparable. Overplayed his hand on many an occasion.
Deal with him exclusively in boat anchors.
The thing I found funny about the Konecny speculation on twitter, is that the question most often posed is would you trade Broberg for him.
Broberg CANNOT go in the deal, or there is no way the Oilers make the cap work.
Two or three of Foegele, Yamamoto, Ceci, and Kulak have to go…and as soon as one D goes,There is no way to make the Oilers cap work without Broberg as one of the top 6D.
Holloway or Bourgault are far more likely as the key piece than Broberg. One can find competent stop gap million dollar forwards. One cannot find competent stopgap million dollar D.
The deal is an Ekholm like deal. One of (Foegele, Yamamoto), one of (Kulak, Ceci), the 2024 1st, and probably Bourgault. I don’t think Philly would take two forwards
I would be on the fence if this was the deal. I don’t like giving up one of the seven D, and downgrading the D. It would be difficult to upgrade the D if one loses one of the seven, with Konecny’s contract and Bouchard’s raise.
There is less risk in keeping the seven D. Broberg with Nurse to start. If he stumbles, then Ceci. Then upgrade at the trade deadline. Injuries to D are pretty much the only thing that can skewer a season.
I would be okay with the deal contingent on what other moves Holland would make to fix the holes it creates. I think it would be very difficult to fix the holes.
This is a good summary.
Upgrading to Konecny this summer is akin to upgrading to Patrick Kane last summer.
It appears to fill a hole at the time, but eats your cap flexibility and assets.
Konecny is attractive due to age, performance, and cap value, but that deal will be there in February, ‘24 if the Oilers feel it prudent to act on it then.
There is ongoing speculation that the Flyers might retain salary to move Anthony Deangelo. (He has one year remaining at $5 million).
Apparently he and Torts don’t see eye to eye.
Would he be an upgrade on RD at the right price?
I think of DeAngelo as a Tyson Barrie-type defender, which makes his skill set redundant on a team with Evan Bouchard.
Which begs the question: at what point are you overpaying Evan Bouchard if he’s calling card is predominately offense?
Deangelo doesn’t see eye to eye with anybody but himself.
Evander Kane didn’t either.
deeangelo can move the puck. his defensive game is meeeeeeeediocre tho. and his effort defensively is just horrific.
DeAngleno is toxic. No at any price.
Konecny would be great. I liked him at the draft
Same here. I remember scouting reports along the lines of “Bobby Clarke light” having me enticed.
Konecky is a huge piece. makes way to much sense. I think Yamamoto and a 1st and prospect may be enough. Ceci i think you might be able to deal to a team like Buffalo that could use a decently priced 4/5 dman. he fits their cap and fills a need, and helps get us a pick or prospect to use elsewhere (maybe in the konecky deal).
Your roster leaves a few million to play with. no sense in a $2 mill 7th dman. wouldn’t it make more sense to use our extra space plus that $2 million and go for someone like Mayfield at around $3.85 or so.
Then you can either move Kulak to free up cap or have Broberg as your 6/7 dman and we go into the year with a really nice top 4 and a solid 5 on D, with 2 yoth taht can grow and trade off. ideal really.
This is one of my favorite potential lineups for next season that you’ve put together LT. Great balance, though a lot depends on Broberg to take that step. Love a fast and hard kid line as a third line. And the two top lines are world beaters. No idea about Philp but at least he has veteran support.
Since we are making a multi-player deal with Philadelphia in this scenario anyway, why not see what else would need to happen so Campbell and Hart are swapped?
I think Campbell will be better next year. I also would fear Hart takes a step back on a new team a la Campbell from last year. So perhaps I just answered my own question but I can’t get over the tantalising possibility of two local goalies.
Couldnt agree more. Retain $1M on Campbell and package the first next year for Konecny and Hart. I don’t care what other forwards go to make the money work, it could be separate deals as well.
They need to be all in next year.
A reminder that Philly already has Cal Peterson on the books.
Hey LT…what is the total $$ on the roster you posted today….and who is Mikkola
mikkola is a large defense first 3rd pairing defenseman who played for st louis blues and was then traded to the rangers at the trade deadline.
think of vincent desharnais kindof?
gerard gallant.
“I’ve seen him play in St. Louis a lot – when we played against them, when you watch games at home some nights – and I’ve always liked the guy,” he said Wednesday. “He’s a big, strong guy. He’s not going to carry the puck up the ice and lug it and try and beat guys one-on-one. But I like him defensively. He’s physical, he’s strong, he plays the body a lot and he moves the puck okay. We like what we got, for sure.”
a smaller desharnais.
6 ft 4 and 210 lbs.
skates well
blocks out in front of the net
blocks shots
pks a lot.
dzone first and has mediocre puck skills.
i feel like we already have this player in Niemo.
You are correct. Niemo may be better.
the 1980’s scouting style, “he’s big and I saw him good” …. Mikkola has ZERO offensive ability and terrible fancies ….not sure what he brings to the table??
i keep niemo all day, he skates very well also. Has more size, has familiarity with the coach and the systems, and is 1.2 mil cheaper than the hypothetical mikkola contract.
Not what a good team needs. I look at Whitecloud. He can skate and handle a puck. He’s not a top pair type but to me icing players that are too immobile affects their passing because they can’t create lanes, and if they also struggle with that already, they better be good at in zone D because they’ll be doing it a lot
To me the difference in players should be in offensive creativity. Not everyone can score a lot at the NHL level. So the bottom half players should still be strong skaters and good with a puck, just not point producers like the top half
That can be rookies, UFA vets or aging roster vets. The latter I think is Holland’s plan based on term he gave to Nuge and Hyman. Their 5M contracts are theoretically manageable 3-5 years down the road. Hopefully they keep their play top 6 that long
Niemo does not defend well at the NHL level though – an important distinction.
Once you past the top 20 in the draft , the rankings are all over the map.
Here are some players I like at #56 so far.
NADEAU, BRADLY
RYKOV, ALEXANDER
COWAN, EASTON
SUNIEV, AYDAR
Nick Lardis
Charlie Stramel
If they trade into the 1st at later pick
David Edstrom
Why the attention for Steady Steve? Is he really believed to be that good? Or are the media just putting a name to a position?
And what is it about airline food?
He was the GM for the new owner’s Hamilton Bulldogs. So history
if Konecny can be a 30 Goal scorer in Philly, maybe he can pop for 40 Goals in Edm. Also, seems to have an all around game and is hard to play against.
I def have time for him. If Edm goes into the season with that roster, that’s awesome!! then add and tweak at the deadline!
CUP or Bust in 2024
Maybe, or maybe his powerplay minutes disappear and he’s a 25 goal man again. Or maybe his shooting percentage drops from a career high of 16 back to 12. We’d still be talking about a 20 goal scorer which is always welcome. I’m not saying much, just 40 goals is a spicy starting point. The maybes can swing either way.
GMS – GOALS for Konecny through his career.
70 – 11
81 – 24
82 – 24
66 – 24
50 -11
79 – 16
60 -31
So yah, I agree his PP time will diminish, so if he can be 20 – 25 Goal man and be a positive overall player (as LT stated); then that’s a win …. really, Yamo was not only delivering no goals, he was also a drag on his linemates …
This would be a substantial upgrade 🙂
If you look at 5v5 goals there isn’t much of a gap between Yamamoto and Konecky before this year;
Yamamoto:
27 – 7
52 – 7
81 – 14
58 – 9
Konecky (last 4 years):
66 – 18
50 – 7
79 – 12
60 – 17
(to be fair Konecy did have 21 and 18 5v5 goals in the 2 seasons before those).
I agree with Kert though, anyone buying Konecky this summer will be buying high (which isn’t to deny that he’s a very good player).
Now given most common linemates who should have produced more?
Konecny has been way more consistent over his career and by the sounds of it, adds value in other areas and is a positive force overall.
Same cannot be said of Yam Fry.
Oh 100%. I didn’t mean to suggest that Yamamoto is an equivalent player.
Konecky should be expected to score more with better linemates, just that the gap may not be as big as you’re expecting (hoping for 40 from a guy who failed to score 20 in 2 of the last 3 years is setting yourself up for disappointment IMO).
More value in other areas is open to debate as well. Your ‘drag on his linemates’ comment is a long way from the fact that Draisaitl has had far better better results with Yamamoto than without for the last 4 seasons.
I like his aggressiveness but looking at his last 4 seasons it seems he gets hurt a lot. Also similar to Yama
which brings me to another Woodcroft pet peeve. I hope in 2023-24 Woodcroft gives the 2nd powerplay unit a real shot at producing. Not the last 20 seconds after a team has cleared the puck out. I would have the #1 unit on no longer than 1:10 on average and that would give some good players on PP2 a real chance to contribute, would also rest the big boyz a little bit more and allow them to play quicker after the PP is over.
Little changes like that, can equal a Cup Win …