This is Raphael Lavoie. He was in a good position to push for NHL employment this fall, but things have become a little more complicated. It isn’t the end of the world, but it does make a strong preseason more important to Lavoie’s chances. At this point he’ll need to do what Dylan Holloway accomplished during the exhibition season one year ago.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Assessing Edmonton Oilers’ remaining roster needs ahead of NHL free agency
- Lowetide: Realistic draft options for an Edmonton Oilers team low on picks
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 3.0
- Lowetide: Why Connor Brown is a fit for the Edmonton Oilers in free agency
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- Lowetide: 4 impact QMJHL centres for Oilers to target late in 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Dylan Holloway is in prime position for a major role
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
His acceptance of the qualifying offer means Lavoie is less likely to break camp with the big club. That doesn’t mean he’s doomed to waiver exposure and the Bakersfield Condors for more AHL time, but it does increase the chances. Here’s a 22-man roster without Lavoie:
This comes in about $7,500 under the cap. The talent gap between Drake Caggiula and Raphael Lavoie is less of a factor than getting Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod under contract.
Why would Lavoie do it? There are three reasons I can think of, and all have been factors in some unsual decisions with other players in the past.
First, the player has decided he’s worth it and will show what he can do in camp. That isn’t impossible and he’ll get a full shot in preseason. I like the confidence.
Second, negotiations may have been going poorly. Edmonton may not have offered a one-way deal. That can be a sticking point, because the minor league salary ($70,000) is a drop in the bucket. Player and agent may have requested a one-way deal, then a two-way with an increased minor-league salary, and finally decided to accept the qualifying offer to push for about $100,000 more on the NHL deal. Seems less likely than option number one, but I’ve never played hockey in the AHL for $70,000 and don’t know what doing it for a fourth year in a row might feel like.
Third, pressure from parent or advisor. I have no evidence in this case but do know that friction between family, player and organization has led to strained relationships and trades with other players from the past. Here’s an example of a roster with Lavoie on it. There is $283,000 in cap room:
At this point, you could make the case for 21-man roster and the final spot going to one of Lane Pederson or Raphael Lavoie. I’m not sure how that turns out, would probably favour Pederson. Edmonton won’t let Lavoie go if he shows well in preseason. I do think a trade is more likely than before the signing.
CURRENT 50-MAN LIST (41, plus two RFA)
- Goalies (5): Stuart Skinner, Jack Campbell, Calvin Pickard, Olivier Rodrigue, Ryan Fanti
- Left Defense (8): Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen, Cam Dineen, Ben Gleason, Noel Hoefenmayer.
- Right Defense (4): Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Phil Kemp, Max Wanner
- Center (8): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Lane Pederson, James Hamblin, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg, Jayden Grubbe, Carl Berglund.
- Left Wing (7): Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Dylan Holloway, Mattias Janmark, Drake Caggiula, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov
- Right Wing (9): Zach Hyman, Connor Brown, Warren Foegele, Derek Ryan, Raphael Lavoie, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Seth Griffith, Jake Chiasson
- RFA: Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod.
I’ve placed each position on a line for NHL players to order of recall estimate, with the exception of the LH depth defensemen behind Niemelainen. I’ve placed those men in alpha order.
FARM WORKERS, THE ORIGINAL
I’ve been running some echo editions of Farm Workers this week, decided to conclude it with the original. I hope you enjoyed the trip down memory lane.
This is Brian Conacher. He wasn’t a great hockey player but he was a good one, and over 35 years ago he wrote a tremendous book called “Hockey In Canada: The Way It Is”. Conacher’s book is very hard to find (library might have one) but if you haven’t read it it’s worth looking for if you like your hockey books intelligent and with a point.
He made many strong arguments in the book (and predicted much of what has happened since) but the one that has importance here is what he wrote about the Maple Leafs minor league team (Rochester Americans) of 65-66:
As in other areas of modern society, hockeys teams too have their generation gaps. This situation stood out on the Rochester team in 1965 which consisted of three groups: the veterans (had all resigned themselves to making the best of their minor league hockey careers), the young ones (who have stars in their eyes and are in the AHL for just a little time, or so they think) and the group somewhere in between (these players kept hoping that a break would come their way and they might get their chance in the “big tent”).
The Veterans
Now the Rochester Americans had some old buggers playing for them in 1965: Les Duff was 30, Don Cherry, Marc Reaume and Claude Labrosse were 31, Al Arbour was 32, Gerry Ehman and Eddie Litzenberger were 33, Bob Perreault was 35 and Bronco Horvath was 35. Dick Gamble and Stan Smrke were 36. That’s 11 players on a team that iced 28 (39.2%) over 30 years of age. That’s a ton. The 99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs had one player over 30 (Rob Murray), the 04-05 Roadrunners had no one over 30 and the current Springfield Falcons have 33-year old Derek Bekar. Safe to say men over 30 are finding better paydays outside the minor leagues (likely Europe), entered management early or find another career. The idea of dragging a family around North America ala Don Cherry in the 1960’s didn’t sound appealing and it’s no wonder that life has gone the way of calligraphy.
Because there are fewer of Conacher’s “veterans”, the chances of these guys doing much in the NHL (as a group) is even less than it was those long years ago. I’m not saying that these players won’t make an NHL appearance from here out, but the odds of an NHL team breaking camp with one of these players seems unreasonable.
From the 60’s bunch, Gerry Ehman caught on with expansion and played an additional 297 games in the show, Al Arbour had an even bigger impact in St. Louis and played 231 more NHL games. Bronco Horvath got into 14 game due to Bill Masterton’s death (went over as a special “loan” replacement). Finally, Marc Reaume would play for the 70-71 Vancouver Canucks (27 games). Let’s do the numbers by team:
- 65-66 Rochester Americans: 569
- 99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs: 0
- 04-05 Edmonton Roadrunners: 0
- 08-09 Springfield Falcons: Derek Bekar to track
The Young Ones
Next up are the young players, and Rochester had some nice ones in 1965. Mike Walton, Doug Dunville were 20, Gary Smith, Ted Bayliss and Andre Champagne were 21, Peter Stemkowski and Rollie Wilcox 22 and Conacher was 24 after having gone to college and then the Canadian Olympic Team to complete his education. The Americans also had a bunch of junior players (Darryl Edestrand, Jim McKenny, Mike Corrigan, Gerry Meehan, Neil Clark, Brent Imlach) who played a handful of games but that’s just going to skew the numbers since junior age players are not eligible to play in the AHL at this time. So, that’s 8 of 28 in the rookie group (28.6%) from 65-66.
The 99-00 Bulldogs boasted 20-year olds Dan Cleary, Alex Henry, Michel Riesen, Chad Hinz, Peter Sarno, Jason Chimera, 21-year olds Mathieu Descoteaux, Maxim Spiridonov, Alexandre Volchkov, Chris Hajt. That’s 10 players out of 35 (28.9%) for the turn of the century bunch, which is comparable to the 65-66 team.
04-05’s Edmonton Roadrunners had Jeff Deslauriers, Kyle Brodziak who were 20, Jeff Woywitka, Brock Radunske, Dan Baum, Doug Lynch, Simon Ferguson, Martin St Pierre, Mathieu Roy and Jesse Niinimaki were 21, Jordan Little and Kenny Smith were 22 and Jason Platt was 24. That’s 13 players out of 31 (I’m excluding JF Jacques) and 41.9% which is much higher than the other two clubs.
08-09 has Slava Trukhno, Gilbert Brule, Theo Peckham, Ryan O’Marra, Taylor Chorney and Cody Wild (21) plus Bryan Lerg (22) and Josef Hrabal (23)who are new pro’s. That’s 8 of 33, or 24.2% who are either new pro’s or early enough in their careers to be considered the young ones. Let’s post the GP number moving forward by team:
- 65-66: Peter Stemkowski (930 NHL), Mike Walton (588 NHL, 211 WHA), Gary Smith (532 NHL, 22 WHA), Brian Conacher (155 NHL, 69 WHA). Total: 2,507.
- 99-00: Daniel Cleary (522 NHL), Jason Chimera (404 NHL), Alex Henry (175 NHL), Michel Riesen (12 NHL), Peter Sarno (7 NHL), Chris Hajt (6 NHL), Mathieu Descoteaux (5 NHL). Total: 1,131.
- 04-05: Kyle Brodziak (125 NHL), Jeff Woywitka (104 NHL), Mathieu Roy (30 NHL), Martin St. Pierre (21 NHL), Jeff Deslauriers (6 NHL), Doug Lynch (4 NHL). Total: 290.
- 08-09: We’ll see.
The point here isn’t to compare the numbers since three of the seasons are still in play and one of them is just getting started. The two pertinent points are:
- Among the group of players who are 20-21 and play any AHL games all of them come with some issues: Mike Walton is the most talented player on this list but wouldn’t be the first player chosen if they were all on a line, and the player Daniel Cleary was in 1999 doesn’t resemble the man in Motown. All of the players in the 08-09 group have a bright future based on what we know today, but somewhere in there is a Doug Lynch or a Michel Riesen.
- No matter the era, an organization is going to get a substantial number of NHL games played from the group who are in the minor leagues. One of Peckham, Wild or Chorney will take at-bats from the other two and someone in that trio is either going to disappoint us or head elsewhere and become what Patrick Sharp is to Philadelphia.
The Tweeners
These are the men who were once hotshot rookies but are either playing deep into their entry level deal or have signed a second contract that has them one a one-way but in the minors (Roy) or on a minor league deal that basically tells the world what they are. If you can’t negotiate a one-way deal after your first pro contract you are a de facto minor league player.
The final class is the biggest, the guys hanging in there waiting for a break. Rochester in 65-66 had Larry Jeffrey and Lowell MacDonald (24), Jimmy Pappin and Eddie Joyal (25), Red Armstrong and Darryl Sly (26), Duane Rupp and Wally Boyer (27), Larry Hillman (28). Pretty much all of these men became NHL regulars in the fall of 1967 when the NHL doubled in size. These 9 players represent 32.1% (9/28) of the Americans roster but I’ll bet when we add the NHL GP numbers they’re over 50% of the overall number for that team. If the NHL expanded by 6 teams tomorrow we can only imagine how many Falcons would be in the big leagues. Rob Schremp would be a regular getting PP minutes.
The 99-00 Bulldog team also had a big group here. Dan Lacouture, Paul Comrie, Brian Bolibruck, Elias Abrahamsson, Brian Urick, Mike Minard were 22, Eric Heffler, Adam Copeland, Brian Swanson and Ryan Risidoire were 23, Brent Cullaton, Todd Kidd, Ian Perkins, Trevor Roenick, Sean Selmser, Alex Zhurik and Brad Norton were 24, Sergei Yerkovich, Joacquin Gage, Bert Robertsson and Kevin Brown were 25, Vladimir Vorobiev and Martin Laitre were 26 and Andy Silverman was 27. That’s 24 out of 35, or 68.5%. Mammoth compared to the 65-66 team.
The 04-05 Roadrunners also had the heart of their team fall into this category. The 22-year olds were Tony Salmelainen, Brad Winchester, Joe Cullen and Jason Platt. The 24-year olds were JJ Hunter, Sean McAslan, Eric Beaudoin and Brent Henley. The 25-year olds were Toby Peterson, Mike Bishai, Nate DeCasmirro and Mike Morrison. Dan Smith and Rocky Thompson were 27, Jamie Wright was 28 and Rick Mrozik, Paul Healey and Tyler Moss were all 29. That’s 18/31, or 58.1%.
The 08-09 Falcons have 22 year olds Rob Schremp, Tyler Spurgeon, Sebastien Bisaillon, Liam Reddox, Stephane Goulet, Geoff Paukovich, Devan Dubnyk, Bryan Young. 23-year old Ryan Constant has just been added and there’s a bunch of 24 year olds including Ryan Potulny, Colin McDonald, Tim Sestio, Cory Urquhart and Cleve Kinley. 25 year olds are Jake Taylor, Mathieu Roy, Robbie Bina, Adam Huxley, Ryan Huddy, Glenn Fisher and Hans Benson, along with the men at 27 (Guillaume Lefebvre, Mike Gabinet) and old timer Carl Corazzini (29). That’s 24 out of 33, or 72.7% which is in line with the 99-00 Bulldog team and runs a little counter to the lockout club in Edmonton 04-05.
Let’s run the GP numbers for the tweeners on each team:
- 65-66 Rochester: Jim Pappin (673 NHL), Larry Hillman (487 NHL 192 WHA), Lowell MacDonald (460 NHL), Duane Rupp (370 NHL 115 WHA), Wally Boyer (364 NHL 69 WHA), Eddie Joyal (359 NHL 239 WHA), Larry Jeffrey (198 NHL), Darryl Sly (77 NHL). TOTAL: 3,603.
- 99-00 Hamilton: Dan Lacouture (334 NHL), Brad Norton (124 NHL), Brian Swanson (70 NHL), Bert Robertsson (54 NHL), Paul Comrie (15 NHL), Joacquin Gage (5 NHL), Mike Minard (1 NHL). Total: 603.
- 04-05 Edmonton: Brad Winchester (132 NHL), Tony Petersen (101 NHL), Tony Salmelainen (57 NHL), Mike Morrison (29 NHL). Total: 319.
- 08-09 Springfield: We’ll see.
Before we ask some questions (if you’ve read this far you’re crazy) let’s list each of the teams who’ve played games we can compare and which area their roster and then NHL games came from:
The Veterans
- Rochester: 39.2% of the roster played 569 games (8.5%)
- Hamilton: 2.8% of the roster played 0 games (0)
- Edmonton: nil
- Springfield: 3.0% of the roster and we’ll see.
The Young Ones
- Rochester: 28.6% of the roster played 2,507 games (37.5%)
- Hamilton: 28.9% of the roster played 1,131 games (65.2%)
- Edmonton: 41.9% of the roster played 290 games (46.8%)
- Springfield: 24.2% of the roster and we’ll see
The Tweeners
- Rochester: 32.2% of the roster played 3,603 games (54%)
- Hamilton: 68.3% of the roster played 603 games (34.8%)
- Edmonton: 58.1% of the roster played 319 games (53.2%)
- Springfield: 72.8% of the roster and we’ll see
Okay, what can we learn from this.
- Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. You’ll find the odd goalie or defenseman but unlike the orginal 6 era very few teams have enough depth and free agency makes it impossible to keep them on the farm. Which is a good thing.
- Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 through 2009).
- We shouldn’t expect Rob Schremp to play more career games than Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano. Whatever that line in the sand is, that line sticks.
- No one on the 2008-09 team is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games.
- If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. Exceptions are college men.
- The few college men on this list show very well. NHL teams should treat the college signing season as extremely important.
- A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. History tells us we’ll have our answers on men like Schremp, Spurgeon, Roy and Reddox very soon. It also tells us we already have our answer on Colin McDonald.
- If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s this summer (Brule, Schremp, Dubnyk, Trukhno, Colin McDonald, David Rohlfs, Bryan Lerg, Stephane Goulet, Bryan Young, Sebastien Bisaillon, Mathieu Roy, Tyler Spurgeon, Ryan Potulny, Carl Corazzini-I believe this list is correct–SOURCE: Oilfans) we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list is going to get a trim.
- As much as we talk about men like Dan Lacouture and Brad Winchester as disappointing, they were able to find a role and survive.
- Daniel Cleary and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study.
- For Rob Schremp fans, there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton.
the first 12 teams of nhl.coms drop down list up to and including the Oilers (then I got bored) averaged 90 games played for the 14th forward to the last forward.
90!
don’t know if I stated that well to understand. let me try again.
I wanted to see how many games deep depth forwards played on average for a team. Deep depth forwards I defined as forwards #14 and beyond in terms of games played. I looked at the first 12 teams on nhl.com’s drop down list up to and including “Your Edmonton Oilers” and discovered that on average a teams deep depth forwards played 90 games.
I guess trades should be accounted for in this. Most teams are adding/losing a few players through the season due to trade. That would inflate the number of forwards playing meaningful games even though the extra players are not coming from the minors.
I wasn’t 100% sure how to handle trades. But if we are using the whole league then we need to account for ALL games played right? If we don’t include traded players we miss games. Wouldn’t we? Then the numbers would be deflated.
Yeah I’m not sure the the best way to account for trades in calculating the games played.
It looks like 69 forwards this season played for at least 2 teams, so they are being counted twice among your ’14 forwards’. And these guys for the most part are not coming from teams depth, but from another NHL team.
So if you’re assuming the forwards after # 14 are coming from each teams ‘depth’, I’d say more accurate is probably that 1-13 are NHLers, 14-15 are from trade (on average), and 16+ are from a teams depth chart. Or something to that effect.
Fair?
you could be right, i’ll have to think on it more. it would be nice to have a number for the amount of games that are required from deep depth players (14+)
A part of me wonders if Lavoie’s cap hit won’t matter at all because he’ll end up having a better camp than Holloway, and Holloway (who is waivers exempt) will be the one who ends up starting in Bakersfield. I don’t necessarily think the team should do that, I think Holloway is the better player so far. But I don’t think his spot on the team should be 100% guaranteed either.
I think it will end up being [insert name of random 4C/4RW we sign here], Pederson, Hamblin and Malone battling it out for the spot on the 4th line next to Janmark and Ryan. And I can also see Holloway and Lavoie battling for the spot on the 3rd line next to Foegele and McLeod.
It would be quite the leap for Lavoie to surpass Holloway. As good as Lavoie was for most of the 2nd half of last season, when Holloway was dressed for the Condors, he was their most impactful forward, pretty much every shift.
Wow, $2.665M x 2 for Jeannot. They’re betting hard on a rebound for him, though I guess they almost have to. He’s a UFA in 2 years too.
Tampa Bay Lightning@TBLightning·16m
HEEEEERE’S JEANNOT We have signed restricted free agent forward Tanner Jeannot to a two-year contract worth an average annual value of $2.665 million.
The entire Tanner Jeannot situation is really perplexing. Michael Peterson is a legend, but I have no idea what he’s thinking here, assuming Brisebois is listening to him.
Trading almost an entire draft for a guy with 5 goals in 56 games then paying him $2.665m aav after scoring 1 goal in 23 games for the Lightning.
This sure seems like they’ve galaxy brained this whole thing.
If Holland did this there would be riots.
“If Holland did this there would be riots.”
truth
Yeah. I suppose they were pretty committed after paying that much for him. Tough to cut bait like Holland when the cap didn’t go up.
And I guess Jeannot had an arbitration hearing. Plus he was eligible for UFA next summer, so I guess they really wanted some term.
The initial trade was crazy though. I think LT summed the situation up quite nicely.
There is a difference between Ty Smith and Raphael Lavoie. Ty Smith has $2.5 million in career earnings already. Lavoie has $200K
Lavoie must not only did not think highly about Chaulk. He and Woodcroft must not have had a totally sympatico relationship. And then Holland didn’t throw nary a bone his way when he broke out last year
Asking a guy who has $200K in career earnings to make the $100K sacrifice so a guy who has hit the multimillion dollar jackpot already doesn’t have to make a $100K sacrifice.
McLeod made the sacrifice last year. Bouchard is the guy who should be making the sacrifice this year, since Holland dumped Barrie midseason for him to hit the jackpot, and traded for Ekholm. Bouchard got thrown a lot of bones after stinking out the joint in the first half of the season.
Except the point isn’t “Raph, you’re the one who has to sacrifice 100k”, it’s “if every one of you take a pay cut of 100k (or more), the team will have 300k (or more) of cap space at season’s start that can accrue over the season allowing the team to make a more meaningful addition at the deadline”.
And push Lavoie out of the lineup.
Who else took a $100K haircut?
You are missing the point of those that don’t understand why he didn’t take the league min.
Its not because the team was asking him to take less its that the extra $100K could serve to keep him off the roster and have him making $70K in the AHL.
Signing for $775K would have given him a MUCH better chance to be on the opening night roster – The only scenario I can that has him being waived at $775K is if he really struggles at camp.
The extra $100K could make a difference in the Oilers cap and have the likes of Lane Pederson, or an additional signing of an established NHL player at league min, win a job over him – due to cap.
Best case scenario for Lavoie is a take home of like an extra $40K after taxes, union fees, escrow, agent’s fees, etc. but he’s risking being waived and riding buses for $70K again.
Signing the QO forces Woodcroft’s and Holland’s hand. Play me or lose me on waivers. It alters the probabilities. Signing the QO makes it difficult for Woodcroft and Holland to make Lavoie the 13th forward, He has to be top 12 or waived.
And who knows what his agent knows.
I don’t agree with this at all.
All it does is decrease the chance they have the cap room to keep him.
It doesn’t help him make the team one iota and could serve to hurt him making the team.
He’s highly unlikely to get claimed on waivers.
As an aside, nobody is vilifying the player for taking the extra $100K, i’m sure not, I just think it was a poor decision and it could cost him an NHL roster spot at the end of camp.
Last year a $7,500 difference between cap hits made a difference to who could be on the team.
These young men have a very short window to secure their future and unless they have prima donna salary demands they should not be vilified for agreeing to their qualifying offers.
Holland has agreed to several over market contracts and players like Lavoie shouldn’t be expected to pay for that largesse,
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Sounds like Tanner Jeannot closing in on a two-year extension in Tampa Bay
Read through your excellent analysis, and now for a cannelloni.
So…having been born a score of years too late to enjoy IMO the peak of recorded music in real time, I get to discover it in retrospect. And so it is with the album Smile, which Brian Wilson resurrected from the Beach Boys’ abortive Smile project and recorded in 2004, featuring among other gems “Heroes and Villains”.
Do your ears a favour and enjoy the album being performed live in its entirety by Wilson and his crackerjack band. Pure magic.
Otherwise known as the Concerto for Violin Cello, Slide Whistle, Triangle, Windchimes and Captain Hook’s Hook.
Wilson wrote it with Van Dyke Parks who is a great songwriter and producer. He’s an even better twitter follow than Brian Eno!
I named this post after the song btw. Great imagery. Beach Boys are so underrated.
The Beach Boys are legends and still not respected enough.
Lennon and McCartney heard Pet Sounds and went home devastated. They eventually regrouped and 12 months later released Sgt. Pepper’s.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
DeAngelo clears
Here is a guy that had the exact same QO as Lavoie but just took a $775K NHL AAV with higher min guarantee in the AHL…. exactly what I though Ralph would (and should) do.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/pittsburgh-penguins-re-sign-defenseman-ty-smith-to-one-year-contract
It looks like Smith got a 1-way deal though (according to CapFriendly).
Sorry, the post wasn’t about Ty Smith – the link from DFO changed on me.
It was another 2018 pick that had a QO exactly the same as Lavoie’s but took a league min deal (with, I believe it was a $125K min).
A number of these have happened recently it seems – all these players from other teams that are comparable to Ralph Lavoie.
Ah, OK. And yes, agreed those deals are very common.
This cap problem is self imposed. Holland to me seems really challenged with deal making. There should be nothing weird happening with such an experienced GM as I see it
When Foegele came on board many said the day would come when his contract wasn’t viable for the team. That day is here. I have no idea why they become so invested in replacement level players. If it’s the buddy thing really that’s not acceptable
Last season with Foegele I saw a nice fellow that kills plays. He has trouble handling the puck and doesn’t have much vision. He played better in the playoffs, but the production was 2 goals and 1 assist, and a minus 2. Not exactly your classic bottom roster playoff heater
On a top heavy team you can’t pay players like Foegele nearly 3M. You can get 2 league minimum players and have an extra 1.2M. Janmark and Ryan are better players. WF is easily replaceable. It makes no sense
Have to agree with this. The summer isn’t over though. He might still be on the move depending on the RFA negotiations.
This speaks to the deal making issues. Because Holland couldn’t make the deals in a timely fashion the players left aren’t going to help much
It’s a thin UFA year for what they need. They don’t seem to use RS wingers for faceoffs. They will be relying on Ryan solely again and he’s old and used in a limited way. If he gets hurt they will have possession issues again I think off faceoffs
Some other teams also don’t have enough RC. He may come up with something but there’s enough track now to know he sits and waits and we aren’t often surprised that they had a player in their back pocket from somewhere
It’s too reactive for me. ‘Oh well the good guys are all gone, what am I going to do pull players out of my backside? In Detroit I inherited a team Scotty built up and everyone played at a high level forever. With no cap.’
He got lucky with Guide and Record book old guys that still helped, with the best team with lots of money free agents wanted to go to. He did liquidate the team pretty well after the Pizza guy passed. I don’t see much else that was special
I prefer proactive and get after it. It’s time for a hungrier person who uses modern methods. One more year I guess and we hope Staois is that
I think this underestimates Holland by a fair margin. Experience, contacts, patience, reputation are all things that make Holland a good GM. You might be right that he could be more cut throat in moving guys or negotiations but for every advantage that comes from that approach there is a cost to the other side of what he brings.
The roster as constructed is strong enough to get them to the TD comfortably in the playoffs and the TD often presents opportunities not available at any other point in the year.
Foegele, Ceci, & Kulak all have contracts that make them susceptible to being traded. A couple of youngsters have 50 games to show what they are.
I don’t think the opening night roster is the playoff roster for any team in the league these days so I am in the camp of ‘we wait’ until February. That is the time to render a final judgment on the decisions imo.
I still can’t believe Holland kept Foegle instead of Kostin plus some more cap space. This is the same Foegle that was healthy scratched several times last year.
and that is the same Kostin that cleared waivers last season, on a league min deal……
Of course, Kostin showed more after he cleared but, then again, he also was healthy scratched later in the season….
Foegele, as well, showed much better after the healthy scratches and was one of the team’s more consistent players down the stretch and contributed depth goals.
Lavoie began playing “eff you” hockey after Christmas because he was mad at somebody. Lavoie was also not calledup for any games in the spring after he was on fire for a couple of months in Bakersfield. No reward for the good work. He is returning the Oilers “good will” by signing his QO.
There will be more teams willilng to claim Lavoie on waivers (say Arizona) if he is not on a one-way deal at the NHL minimum salary.
How so?
A claiming team would need to pay him 100k more than if he were on a 1-way deal.
And if they want to later waive him the Oilers can claim him back, no other team can benefit from the deal being 2-way.
A cash-strapped team, if they eventually decide to put Lavoie on waivers, if the Oilers don’t claim him back, would be stuck with the full $775K for Lavoie in the monors.
But the Oilers would almost certainly claim him back. And if the team were cash-strapped that extra $100k in NHL salary would be a detriment over someone at league minimum, just like it is for the Oilers.
Of course the Oilers would claim him back.
He was also passed over until May 2 along with Hamblin & Kemp as the last Condors brought up for the playoff run – about a week later than guys like Malone, Dineen etc.
That would have pissed me off too but it says something about how the organization views him as well.
It’s entirely possible this was a passive aggressive way of getting the Oilers to move him to a team with more opportunity.
With the acquisition of Brown and other slots in the top 6 filled, the young man who turns 23 in September, may have not been excited about playing a few minutes a night on the 4th line if he makes the team.
Possible as well. There is definitely something going on from both sides that doesn’t add up to him having a future with this team.
He certainly doesn’t owe the team anything but that’s not the conversation.
Signing his QO, as opposed to going with $775k, could serve to keep him off the team on opening night. It might not but it very well might – alot less than $100K made a difference last season.
Ty Smith signs for league min with the Pens.
I recall hearing about Bouchard’s draft cohort leaving him well behind……
Is this where we should remind you that someone was adamant that Seattle was not Yamamoto’s home town team and that the Kracken would have no particular interest in acquiring him?
No, I don’t think Mr. Brogan Rafferty and Joe Colborne gets to remind anyone of anything.
A Joe Colborne – AKA Leon Draisaitl – highlight reel? Why thank you.
Seattle is not his home town and I don’t think Ron Francis signed him because of his home state. I think he was signed because he’s likely on a value contract now. I don’t think the Kraken had any interest in trading for him at $3.1MM.
https://www.abebooks.com/
That Conacher book is available here
This is the correct book
https://www.abebooks.com/servlet/BookDetailsPL?bi=4898394035&cm_sp=SEARCHREC-_-WIDGET-L-_-BDP-R&searchurl=an%3Dbrian%2Bconacher%26sortby%3D17
Yes, thanks
I was concerned the full link would get caught in the spam filter so I just posted the home page
$24 US including shipping is quite reasonable
Oilers rolled the dice with Kane and won. Do they consider DeAngelo?
The guy is awful defensively. Not what the Oilers need on the backend at all.
First Lehner, now DeAngelo…you like high risk moves. Both with way too much baggage for me. We have a cohesive team and do not need all the distractions they bring.My 2 cents.
I agree with this and posted my surprise on the contract, and opinion that Lavoie may have hurt himself, immediately after it was announced.
On the presumption that Lavoie would sign for $775K, I had him on the team over Lane Pederson (at $775) for 12F. I wouldn’t think they’d take the small waiver risk on Lavoie to keep Pederson with all else being equal (i.e their league min cap hits).
Also, as Hart (Puckpedia) showed us the other day, as of right now, the Oilers could sign Bouchard and McLeod for $5.8MM total and have room for two $775K forwards at 12F/13F and go with a 22 player roster.
Holland has said he wants a 22 player roster but he’s also said he wants like a million dollars of cap space buffer – he can’t have both.
Now, with Lavoie at $875K (apx), they’d need to sign the RFAs for $5.7MM to make that work.
I think $5.8MM is going to be tough and anything under even tougher.
My point is that $100K could very well be a factor in Lavoie making the team or being waived. I don’t see Holland digging it to get the two RFAs signed for $100K less in order to ensure he has room for Lavoie – don’t see it at all.
Now, its likely they go with 12 forwards so there is a bit more wiggle room to get the two RFAs signed (for higher than $5.8MM) and still fit Lavoie in over Pederson but this would likely put the kybosh on 22 players with Lavoie on the team.
It is much easier for Bouchard to take $100K less (on a high $3 million something deal) llooking at his potential career earnings now and his lucking into the Oilers PP, than asking Lavoie to take that $100K risk. It is basically no sacrifice for Bouchard, while a huge sacrifice for Lavoie.
Remember Lavoie has already earned the right to that $100K.
Ya, I’m thinking that Bouch should NOT have to take $100K less because an NHL tweener (at best at this point) wouldn’t do what various others in the league have done – signed below their QO.
At the end of the day, the extra $100K certainly does not help his chances of being on the roster. It may not end up hurting but it very well may.
It’s a bit of an odd decision as it does hamper him making the team. Strange he couldn’t get even an extra $50k or so on his minor league deal if he signed for less than his QO but perhaps the club wouldn’t budge for whatever reason. Who knows maybe Ralph needed this to motivate himself and the Oilers benefit. Seems like a shortsighted move though even more so when McCloud last year and Ryan to some extent this year took team friendly deals
I would guess (don’t know obviously) the club did offer a deal like that (higher AHL #, lower NHL #) but that Lavoie close to sign the QO instead.
It took a while for him to sign, so presumably there was some discussion and negotiation that preceded him finally signing the QO.
At the end of the day, what’s he maximing here, what’s the take home on the extra $100K after taxes, agent commision, union fees, escrow, etc.?
$40K? and that’s if he’s in the NHL all season long.
It just seems like a low benefit given there is a real chance that $100K could make a difference on the Oilers cap.
Completely agree. Signing the QO is more likely to hurt the player than help, IMO.
Second, negotiations may have been going poorly. Edmonton may not have offered a one-way deal.
=================
If you can’t negotiate a one-way deal after your first pro contract you are a de facto minor league player.
=================
I do think a trade is more likely than before the signing.
=================
I think this pretty much sums up how I see things going for Lavoie after yesterday’s announcement.
Exactly why I included the original Conacher-inspired post. It’s a line in the sand that organizations use on players they believe in. If you’re on the outside, it’s a tell.
He was not among the black aces either, right? Or am I mis-remembering that?
Not sure. I was extremely busy during the playoff run so missed quite a bit of what was going on. I didn’t even note his late call up but saw it on capfriendly a few weeks ago and thought it odd.
EDIT: Whoops, I thought you were responding to me and my post about him being last on the callup list. I need to drink more coffee this morning.
Yeah my mistake, I posted before reading you other post.
He did get a recall but didn’t play iirc
Thanks, I had forgotten.
No negotiations involved or necessary if a player signs the qualifying offfer. The offer is sitting there right in front of him, an earned entitlement from the CBA, waiting for signature.
He took 2+ weeks to sign the QO though. Pretty certain some negotiating was done.
Hard to convince a player to make a sacrifice when the team has not shown much good will in return. I need your over 10% of your salary so Bouchard can get $3,8 million instead of $3.7.
First, I’m not sure what goodwill he should have earned from the team. He had a decidedly uninspired first 2.5 years of his entry deal. He turned it on in the 2nd half of the 3rd year and finally looked like he could be an NHLer, but it’s not like he’s been slighted by the organization for an extended period of time in the face of strong play.
Second, in the opinion of almost everyone, the deal Lavoie signed hurts his chances of playing in the NHL this season. Because of that it makes him less likely likely to earn that extra $100k in his contract, and more likely to earn $70k in the AHL. Lavoie is betting on himself, but the bet he’s taken to try to earn himself and extra $100k could instead result in him losing $700k.
Framing this as the Oilers asking him to ‘make a sacrifice’ misses the point, because Lavoie taking the QO rather than a lower number is a likely (or more) to hurt him than it will the team.
For sure – the deadline to sign a QO is today.
Absolutely his right to sign the QO – I think it very well could hurt his chances to make the team over signing a league min NHL salary of $775K.
Last year the VGK used 18 forwards plus deadline acquisitions and your Edmonton
oilers used 17.
Looking at them depth charts there are some pretty sketchy names that are in line to play nhl games.
Problem is there are already 12 fws on nhl deals scheduled for Bakersfield (13 if you include Pederson) so further depth signings may be inclined to sign elsewhere.
12F +
Lavoie
Pederson
Caggiula
Hamblin
Malone
Griffith
Bourgault
McKegg
Aside from Bourgault and Lavoie, they all have NHL experience.
Lavoie signing for an NHL cap hit of more than Pederson and Caggiula could come in to play.
To your point though, there are a number of players left on the market that are more established than anyone on this list – I mean, Suter, Comtois, Tatar, Nosek, etc. all jump right to the top of this list.
ya, pretty crappy list hey? aside from Lavoie, Pederson and perhaps Bourgault in the second half (although he’ll still be only 21
You mentioned Vegas to start. Is their list better? I don’t think it is.
good point, let’s see.
last year their 14th+ fw’s were:
Leschyshyn,
Dorofeyev
Rondberg
Froese
Rempal
better yes
as for this year, I don’t know enough about many of their depth players to say if it is better or not. Looking at our list, I would feel quite confident (even without knowing their players) that theirs is better. Look at the list. Not good.
Seeing Caggiula and Griffith on our list…the only reason those guys are signed is to try to win games at the AHL level, they won’t help you at the NHL level, well they’ll help you lose.
edit- and I’ll add Griffith wasn’t really even a help to win games at the AHL level last year, nor McKegg
No one is excited about Pederson, Caggiula, Hamblin et al., but they’re fine enough depth to have if you need them for a bit.
To compare the depth charts I listed everyone in either teams system who scored at lest 20 AHL points last season and/or has played in at least 1 career NHL game. Ordered roughly by AHL points/game.
This years Oilers depth forwards (assuming Lavoie as #12):
Pederson 26 AHL 22 17-7-24 (last season), 71 career NHL games
Caggiula 29 AHL 65 22-31-53, 282 career NHL games
Griffith 30 AHL 72 17-43-60, 80 career NHL games
Hamblin 24 AHL 52 10-18-28, 10 career NHL games
Malone 34 AHL 41 4-17-21, 217 career NHL games
Bourgault 20 AHL 62 13-21-34, 0 career NHL games
Tullio 21 AHL 63 13-13-26, 0 career NHL games
McKeeg 31 AHL 66 7-13-20, 233 career NHL games
This years Vegas depth forwards (assuming Howson signs as the #12):
Quinney 27 AHL 66 25-39-64, 3 career NHL games
Rempal 27 AHL 70 25-38-63, 12 career NHL games
Brisson 21 AHL 58 18-19-37, 0 career NHL games
Morelli 27 AHL 72 12-29-41, 0 career NHL games
Froese 32 AHL 60 10-24-34, 125 career NHL games
Dorofeyev 22 AHL 32 9-8-17, 20 career NHL games
Rondbjerg 24 AHL 54 12-16-28, 43 career NHL games
Geerston 28 AHL 61 4-4-8, 25 career NHL games (enforcer, apparently)
8 players made it on each list, including 1 recent first rounder for each team. The Oilers list has far more NHL experience. I dunno, seems pretty comparable to me, but maybe you don’t agree.
fine enough is not good enough
Teams can’t just stash a bunch of quality NHLers in the minors. That’s what waivers was meant to prevent.
You say it’s not good enough, but we don’t know what other teams have and how the Oilers compare. Are you still confident that the Knights, for instance, have better call up options?
There’s no question the boxcars leave out a lot of information. We don’t expect or want Griffith to play games for the Oilers. Quinney and Rempal for the Knights are AHL veterans who scored pretty similarly. Are they better? What we do know is that NHL teams have only given those two players 15 total NHL games, while NHL teams have seen fit to give Griffith 80. Seems like a pretty fair assumption that they’re not actually better call-up options than Griffith is.
I feel like this is a case of the grass always being greener.
well, I was/am concerned that our grass wasn’t green. You brought up Vegas and I played along.
as far as your point that no team has green grass down there….could be. We should try to find out
I certainly think another NHL forward signing is needed to push Pederson to FW #14. I would feel much better about our deep depth cover as I am not okay with the options for the many games fw #14 get
and as i stated yesterday or sometime, I think it may be very difficult to upgrade at the AHL level (as in sign another 2 way contract to be a call up option) as there is a more than full roster there already. Prospective signings would be inclined to look elsewhere.
Unless they were to somehow make arrangements with McKegg or others to play elsewhere.
You mentioned Vegas in your original post.
You said ‘pretty crappy list’ about the Oilers, so I used Vegas to begin to compare.
Their lists seem quite comparable to the Oilers, so I am skeptical that the Oilers have worse depth than most teams. All we have now to suggest that’s the case is your opinion of Griffith, Malone, Hamblin et al.
I mentioned them but in a completely different way. I wasn’t going the grass is always greener route.
also we have your opinion
I wasn’t comparing depth. You are saying that ours is okay because, in your opinion it isn’t worse than others. I am saying ours (14+) isn’t good enough period.
No, you didn’t initially compare Edmonton to Vegas depth. I started with Vegas because you mentioned them peripherally. You did pronounce Vegas’ depth better than the Oilers in your first reply to me though.
You began by saying the Oilers depth is ‘pretty crappy’. I was (and still am) skeptical that’s true and looked at Vegas as one example. Based on that one example, I see no evidence the Oilers depth is worse. I don’t know about other teams because I haven’t looked.
If you’re claiming ‘the Oilers depth is crappy’ then the onus ought to be on you to show that in some way. I’ve done a little bit that seems to support ‘it’s fine’ but it’s far from conclusive, and it doesn’t seem like either of us is much interested going through the whole league that way.
We are talking two different things here.
You are looking for proof that those players (Caggiula, Malone, Hamblin, Griffith, McKegg) are worse than other teams recall options. I am not out to prove that.
I am saying they are sketchy/crappy as nhl options.
Are you saying they are not crappy?
Of course they’re crappy NHL options. But I don’t see how you can separate the two different things.
If every team has crappy call up options how can your reasonably expect the Oilers to have NHL players in Bakersfield waiting for a call-up?
well why didn’t you start your objections with that agreement that they are crappy. sheesh then we could have moved on to the next thing.
I don’t think those numbers are all that informative, for example what does this tell us about Griffith as an NHL win helper?
“they’re fine enough depth to have if you need them for a bit.”
we are not talking “for a bit” we are talking 90 games. A significant impact
oh btw, Lavoie and Pederson would be fw’s 12 and 13 so not on the list
I didn’t include Lavoie in the list I just posted. If you want to remove Pederson then you can also remove the best player from Vegas’ list (I’m not sure who that is, since points obviously aren’t the perfect measure).
Yes, I meant beyond Pederson and Lavoie, I’m totally cool with Pederson getting games. I meant further down the line
When the 2016 draft started I was sure the Oilers were going to take Tkachuk or Sergachev.
From accounts, Sergachev was “the plan” going in to draft day.
That’s a huge jump in pay if Lavoie can force his way onto the NHL roster. I’m sure he will be super motivated. In a year or two we might see a third line with
Dylan Holloway, Ryan MacLeod & Raphael Lavoie. That’s a lot of size and speed that won’t be denied.
I read the whole thing, and I’m only slightly crazy.
So YOU say. 🙂
“ NHL teams should treat the college signing season as extremely important.”
This is Bob Greens responsibilty within the Oilers.
Berglund, Philp and Fanti are his recent recruitments
We are seeing Canadian teams struggling to keep US born players and, while of course there are Canadians coming out of the NCAA, I think the Canadian teams may be at a big of a disadvantage when trying to sign the higher end college free agents.
Not to mention, the Oilers currently have very few “open roster spots” for a 22-23 year old likely hoping to go straight to the NHL, right?
The Athletic: : Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
https://theathletic.com/4686110/2023/07/14/oilers-nhl-draft-tyler-benson/
This reminded me of the old rink rat at Russ Barnes back in the early 2000s. Older, skinny guy with long hair. Didn’t love taking showers. My dad may or may not have referred to him as “Stinky Jesus.” More than one time came in for a 6:30 am practice and you could tell he hadn’t yet sobered up from the night before, the Zamboni drifting into the end boards on the turns.
But, he had the nicest printing I’ve ever seen. And he was doing it with a whiteboard marker. I don’t know about you, but my printing with a whiteboard marker looks like an 8 year olds.
It was genuinely enjoyable seeing each hockey practice or game written so immaculately on the schedule. Just something about seeing Screaming Hawks vs. Knights of Columbus 8:00 a.m. on the board so perfectly, it was like good zipper, or untouched snowfall, just satisfying.
My dad was chatting with him one time and asked him about the printing. He said his parents made him go to post secondary even though he didn’t want to. He didn’t finish but he said while he was there he really enjoyed the calligraphy classes. Ended up taking all 3 or 4 calligraphy classes his school offered.
Love it.
I worked with a man named Mike Tennant, who was a great writer (commercials, comedy). His Dad was a calligrapher for the Toronto Globe and Mail for years and years. One day they walked in and packaged him out because they could get the job done on computer. Shapes of things to come.
Mike was one of several Ontario young men who did the Peter Gzowski ‘go west, young man’ tour before heading back to Toronto to spend the rest of their careers. We used to have him plus Gary Doyle and Peter Varley over for Christmas dinner.
I would tease them to be careful or they’d marry a SK girl before heading back home. Mike did, Gary did, can’t remember if others did or not.
Mike was/is a great fellow. Can’t think of calligraphy and not think of him.