Since 2014, the Edmonton Oilers have graduated some stunning rookies. Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Evan Bouchard, Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg have all stepped on NHL ice the first time as Oilers.
This year? The Oilers may not have rookies.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Assessing Edmonton Oilers’ remaining roster needs ahead of NHL free agency
- Lowetide: Realistic draft options for an Edmonton Oilers team low on picks
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 3.0
- Lowetide: Why Connor Brown is a fit for the Edmonton Oilers in free agency
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- Lowetide: 4 impact QMJHL centres for Oilers to target late in 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Dylan Holloway is in prime position for a major role
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
A FEW HOME TRUTHS
The entire Farm Workers series, which is 15 years old, revolves around making the call on prospects between the time they graduate to pro hockey and the moment they become NHL players or (more likely) tweeners and or minor-league veterans.
I always say wait five years, and sometimes (Brandon Davidson, Stuart Skinner) it takes longer.
This coming season will be year five for Raphael Lavoie. He is best defined as a first-shot scorer, although his game as grown in the AHL. A lot has been made of the contract signed by the player this week, but at the end of the day (thanks Chris Pronger!) the Oilers weren’t going to gift him a spot no matter the cap hit.
This train is bound for glory, there are only two possible outcomes: Stanley, or crawling from the wreckage.
The thing about AHL skill forwards is betting on them to succeed is a very poor bet. I always say at the end of each Farm Workers “there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton” and we’ve seen some Mike Waltons fall short over the last 20 years.
Is Lavoie more than a pure offensive winger? His competition next season in Edmonton is Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Connor Brown plus Warren Foegele and Dylan Holloway. The fourth-line wingers are Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan. I don’t see Lavoie winning a job over any of these men.
What can save Lavoie as an Oilers player this season? Keep him from the waiver wire (I do think the Montreal Canadiens grab him, always looking for size and there’s always a desire to populate the roster with productive Quebec-born players)? Injuries to other forwards. We’ll spend the next two months arguing this and none of it matters, really.
Time is of the essence for Lavoie, the contract doesn’t change it.
Coming up behind him are Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie. This is the natural stepping off point for Lavoie, 25 goals in an AHL season signals NHL-readiness. We also know (via Eric Rodgers and confirmed by pick 224.comm) that Lavoie just delivered a nice outscoring season at even strength.
Xavier Bourgault was shy offensively compared to Lavoie but slightly more productive as an outscorer. It’s reasonable to suggest that Bourgault will increase his offensive output this season and the team has addressed the weaknesses (defense) of one year ago. He might increase both his pts-game and even-strength goal share in 2023-24.
PITLICK’S PROGRESS
Tyler Pitlick was a player I held in high regard on his draft day. I thought he had the offensive talent to eventually play middle-six (second or third line) in the NHL. His draft-day NHLE (10-8-18) was a little shy but he was a freshman in college and they often play sparsely. His WHL season that followed (12-15-27 NHLE) was close enough to 30 points to keep the idea alive. You might think that’s too low but Warren Foegele is a middle-six winger and has averaged 29 points per 82 games in his NHL career. Pitlick has averaged 22 points per 82 NHL games in his career.
I’m mentioning Pitlick because I want to point something out to you. In the comments section yesterday there was a note saying “Lavoie only really spiked after Christmas” and this is true offensively. However, his AHL resume over three seasons tells me he’s an NHL player and NHL-ready. Here are Pitlick’s AHL career numbers, by year, using pick224.
TYLER PITLICK
We can see where Pitlick’s career began to spike. He figured out the AHL age 22, more than doubled his scoring rate and in two of his final three seasons was an outscorer compared to his own teammates. Now, let’s run Mr. Lavoie.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
When someone suggests Lavoie took 2+ seasons to figure out the AHL, I’m going to push back. His outscoring has always been there, Eric Rodgers has been screaming it from the rooftops and those of us who watched the games know this for sure. Lavoie’s offense did spike this season but he has produced at rates that suggested an NHL career from the very start.
The contract represents an issue for the organization, one I believe Ken Holland will ignore. Losing Lavoie to waivers isn’t an important factor for 2023-24, although it is for the future. The Oilers are pushing for Stanley, Lavoie is pushing for the NHL. Both can happen this season. I’m not certain Lavoie will be in Edmonton come May and June. It’s important we acknowledge the player as well as his right to sign a contract offered. It’s also important to remember the Oilers goal this season isn’t about development, and sure as hell isn’t about patience.
I think we could see a trade before September.
New for The Athetic: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
https://theathletic.com/4694536/2023/07/17/oilers-ken-holland-offseason-moves/
Running it as a percentage on-ice vs off-ice is smart. It really shows how they affect play.
Yeah, when I figured out they were running it for individuals (GF-GA with and without) and specific to games played by each player, I was impressed. Gives a very good view and something we wouldn’t know ordinarily.
Evan Bouchard is an excellent hockey player.
Teams will be cheating on both sides leaving Bouchard to Sheldon Souray it right down the pipe. 20-25 Goals for Evan this year. I thought Evan would be a poor man’s Larry Murphy when drafted but Evan shot is better.
Alan May suggested that he could score 30 this season.
I enjoy Alan take on things he’s one fine analyst.
Can someone/anyone help me out with this?
Based on recent NHL history, in general, what does it cost in terms of draft picks to have a team retain 3years x $2,750,000 worth of salary in a trade?
Please and Thank You.
You can look at trades involving retained salary here: https://www.capfriendly.com/trades?retained-salary
Most are trade deadline moves though, so some digging will be required.
Perfect. Thank You
Coyotes sign Matias Maccelli ..4th round 2019 draft, the Lavoie draft, to a 3 year contract.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/arizona-coyotes-come-to-terms-with-matias-maccelli-on-three-year-extension-1.1984868
Good player, that’s a solid bet.
You have to wonder if or when they will spend some money on their D.
At the moment, their entire NHL D core is under $6 million total.
Bouchard+ for Durzi and Bjugstad+.
They could easily offer sheet Bouchard.
13 picks in next years draft.
They’d have to go over 4.2M for the Oilers not to match. Over that and Edmonton would get Arizona’s 1st and 3rd.
I wonder what the walk away price would be for the Oilers?
$4 290 127 probably.
I’m not so sure that Bouchard is looking to play for the Yotes over the next few years, even if there is an overpay in the short term – it would likely serve to materially mute his production and future earnings.
I would think the money & term would have to be far beyond reasonable for Bouchard to want to accept an offer from Arizona.
There are teams that might be tempting but I doubt the desert dogs are on that list.
Likely true but would be a solid negotiation tactic.
Don’t forget Bouchard would have to agree to an offer sheet – can’t see that happening in Arizona, YMMV.
To clarify: Durzi would be an Oiler- not a King.
(The money is almost exactly a wash)
Bouchard>>>>>> Durzi
No doubt about it.
He should have taken less to give himself a better chance at making the team…..
Maccelli? I don’t think that’s an issue. I don’t think we can rip Lavoie for signing the contract either. Honestly.
It was a clear joke, at least I thought it was clear.
I don’t rip Lavoie, just think that that $100K could cost him a roster spot – its very feasible
I believe it could cost him a roster spot, too. I don’t think it will, but that’s not really the same thing.
Foegele is going to be interesting to watch this year. And Leon.
Halfway through this past season (Jan. 10) the Oilers were on the outside of the playoff cut line. Their defensive side of the game was in complete disarray, Campbell had hit bottom, and Woody was scrambling to find any advantage with lines and matchups. It was a mess. A disaster was looming.
I don’t think it’s a reach to say that the season was rescued by certain Oilers’ out-skilling their structural problems and by a GM who dug deep at the deadline.
Not how Stanley is won imo.
Was it the weird training camp? The short roster? Kane’s injury? A rookie coach? Campbell’s change of scenery and not having a team in front of him that could defend?…
(Conversely, LV was in 1st place in the Conference on Jan. 10. A playoff team by any metric. Regardless…)
My hope for the offseason was for the Oilers to have a full roster set for day 1 of camp so that Woody could let things run and have the luxury of making good use of the organizations depth (including rookies and young Swedish defensemen). With the addition of Ekholm, Kane being back in the line-up, and an improved Campbell- by the midway point of this season the team would be positioned more comfortably in the standings. Thus giving Holland more options at the deadline and lessen the probability that going “all-in” requires trading away more of the future.
I’m still hoping.
FWIW the Oilers improved a bunch on the defensive side in the Jan 10th – trade deadline period compared to before Jan 10th.
Further again after the deadline, but I don’t think they were simply out-skilling (and there likely were structural changes).
By this do you simply mean Bouchard + McLeod signed and maybe also a 4C? Or did you have something different in mind?
Optimally I’d like the NHL roster to start with a full allotment of players and the coaching staff to have the cap flexibility to use them as necessary.
This does mean McLeod signing.
Bouchard? At 4M? I’m asking the question.
Hmm, that’s a different question for sure. But fair enough to want a full roster. We’re all still waiting to see if 22 is possible, your question would need to comes into play for 23.
Unless there is a major move (trade), a 23 player roster is almost an impossibility and a 22 player roster seems unlikely (and, if it happens, there could be literally zero cap space).
Its looking more and more likely that there will be a 21 player roster with a few hundred grand (less than a league min player) of space.
And to the defensive play:
Before Jan 10 SA/60 32.5 (SF% 49.6) (all strengths)
Jan 10-Feb 27 SA/60 28.9 (SF% 55.4)
After Feb 28 SA/60 30.4 (SF% 52.5)
Before Jan 10 SCA/60 30.0 (SCF% 51.5)
Jan 10-Feb 27 SCA/60 26.0 (SCF% 56.7)
After Feb 28 SCA/60 28.4 (SCF% 54.7)
Before Jan 10 HDCA/60 12.0 (HDSCF% 53.7)
Jan 10-Feb 27 HDCA/60 10.5 (HDSCF% 59.7)
After Feb 28 HDCA/60 11.6 (HDSCF% 57.2)
Before Jan 10 xGA/60 3.24 (xGF% 51.4)
Jan 10-Feb 27 xGA/60 2.61 (xGF% 58.8)
After Feb 28 xGA/60 2.88 (xGF% 56.6)
Before Jan 10 SV% .896
Jan 10-Feb 27 SV% .896
After Feb 28 SV% .913
Before Jan 10 GA/60 3.37 (GF% 50.9)
Jan 10-Feb 27 GA/60 2.99 (GF% 59.4)
After Feb 28 GA/60 2.64 (GF% 62.4)
Before Jan 10 (42 games) Points % .536
Jan 10-Feb 27 (19 games) Points % .711
After Feb 28 (21 games) Points % .881
I’d forgotten that that Jan/Feb stretch was actually the teams best defensively by all the underlying numbers (even better than after Ekholm arrived). They really improved markedly after that LA game Jan. 9th, and IIRC a number of players mentioned that as a turning point.
Fair. For the 19 games from Jan.10-Feb.27 they did get better. Especially for the 11 game heater (9-0-2)that began with Anaheim where they outscored the opposition 52-26. For the next 8? They won only 2 being outscored 35-32. Ugly.
That single stretch essentially saved the season- allowing them to remain in the picture tied for 8th and give Holland a reason to buy (from a weak position).
Then on March 1, with Ekholm and Bjugstad, the team-D improved.
I’m not clear why you’re focusing on the deadline for the defensive improvement when the results clearly show the main change happened in early January and was sustained.
In any case, I agree with you that it will be important for them to have a much stronger 1st half so that they’re not chasing the rest of the way. They would have won the West if they’d found one more W, after all, and they’d have finished 2nd overall with two more Ws.
Clearly? It’s debatable isn’t it? For the 8 games I mentioned in that stretch the Oilers were allowing almost 4 goals against per game- and weren’t winning.
Then after the deadline they finished 18-2-1 and moved up the standings.
I think it’s very clear, and shouldn’t be debatable, though it seems everything is.
An improvement of 3.5 shots, 4 scoring chances, 1.5 HD scoring chances, 0.65 expected goals from pre Jan 10th, and all of which were a bit worse after the deadline.
For sure the team had a better record after the deadline, but we were talking about defensive play and structure weren’t we?
The Oilers have 8 (or is it 9) exhibition games, AGAIN. They will be keeping lots of bodies around for a while to play those games….
The Oilers need to figure out a way to, you know, not totally crap the bed in December at some point.
A little caveat to the worries about fitting Lavoie onto the roster or having a 22 man roster. These concerns fail to take possible injuries into account. If someone like Ryan or Janmark goes onto injury reserve during training camp, that makes it easier to find a space for Lavoie. An injury to someone like Foegele would make a 22 or 23 man roster, at least temporarily, possible.
I mentioned in the piece as well. Most likely scenario imo.
Oh look, we’ve found the sanity aisle of this discussion topic.
Only if those injuries are going to have the player out for 10 games and 21 days and on LTIR.
Short term injuries, even if on regular IR, hurt the cap space.
Yes this was the problem early last year wasnt it? There was a short term injury and we played a man down? Then someone else got injured? Thats what my memory says happened, but it sounds to ridiculous to be true. Is this how it actually went down?
Ya, the Oilers played with 17 skaters for game1 last season as Yamo and Foegele were banged up and they didn’t have space to add to the roster.
New for The Athletic: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
https://theathletic.com/4690219/2023/07/16/oilers-nhl-draft-2023-beau-akey/
The Oilers hope Beau will be A key player for them.
Interesting that he shares a jersey number with Broberg (#86).
After Lavoie knocked it out of the park after Christmas Holland and Woody couldn’t even give Lavoie a bone to end the season. Who knows what would of become of it I don’t blame Lavoie for wanting to move on to another organization.
Lavoie has to keep his options open and so does Kenny Holland.
They were winning and pushing for first place. It’s not a developmental team anymore.
A good GM and coach can run and chew gum at the same time.
Esa Tikkanen played his first NHL games on a defending Stanley Cup champion team in the NHL playoffs fresh off the boat from Europe.
There is also the star of this class, Ken Dryden.
Holland and Woody could of made it work and squeezed him into the line-up. Lavoie is a Winger a much easier position then say D-man Jason Demers.
May have cost the OIlers the Stanley Cup. Because Kane and Hyman got hurt. Maybe Nugent-Hopkins too. Yamamoto gets exposed more in the playoffs. And the Oilers had a super hot homegrown one shot scorer who they decided not to even take a look at, likely because Woodcroft and Chaulk don’t like him.
Lavoie appears to be an adequate player defensively.
Our prospect pool is going to be bottom 3 shortly. Holland couldn’t even give a cup of coffee to a legit big one shot winger who’s going to be waiver eligible next year.
So if Woody was reluctant to give more minutes Kostin, a former 1st rounder who actually scored NHL goals, how likely was he to give minutes to Raphael Lavoie?
Cost the team the Cup? That’s … a reach.
I cheered during the spring. I am critiquing now. The Boy Wondercroft has to purge more of the thoroughly mediocre coaching that were imprinted in his neural pathways.
My critiquing has not been one sided. I had defended his goaltending calls during the playoffs.
Love your opinions, but can’t agree here. The idea that not playing Lavoie down the stretch cost Stanley, or that it was the same as not playing Tikkanen, is beyond the pale imo.
I wonder if we have 1 Cup if our owner went with Keith Gretzky instead.
All the guy did was sign his QO. While some, like me, think his chances to make this team would have been better served with taking less than his QO, signing his QO does not signal that he wants out of the org – all of that talk is speculation based on, from what I can see, nothing objective.
How would you suggest the Oilers have called up Lavoie down the stretch last season? They were literally rolling as the best team in the entire league, battling for 1st place in the division and conference and preparing for the playoffs. They would have had to send someone down to bring him up. Not to mention that limit on call-ups post-closing.
Without even getting in to the fact that he was preparing for his own playoff run with the Condors.
Your way better at numbers than myself could they have not sent down Janmark while giving a game or two to Lavoie who I’m sure would been overjoyed to finally get his NHL debut and a real paycheque as well. I’m not sure about the Black Aces but didn’t they dick Lavoie there as well?
They would have risked losing Janmark sending him through waivers. Not sure that would make sense in order to test drive Lavoie at that point.
You have a potential call up that is busting at the seams. I don’t give a fiddlers — as a G.M you get games in for a player that may go nuclear to end the season and beyond. This playing it safe as we seen by Woody isn’t how you get over the finish line.
“Busting at the seems”
“May go nuclear”
We are talking about Ralph Lavoie, right?
This is akin to the opinion that, instead of getting swept, the Oilers would have beat the Jets if Holloway had been playing.
We lost 3 games in OT how did playing Bear ragged all-season and in the Playoffs work out for us against the mighty Jets.
They are going to waive their most used PK forward during the stretch drive as they are trying to win a division and conference title? To give the guy that finished 90th in AHL points a cup of coffee?
Well if Janmark doesn’t take a stupid penalty to go 2- men down after the phantom call on Broberg we win game 5 the series and the Cup.
Who is Lavoie that he should be given an NHL look for a couple of months of strong AHL play?
It’s not like he’s been destroying the AHL for a season and a half. The guy should be thankful if he’s given a shot at all. He shouldn’t be expecting it.
Because so far Lavoie hasn’t proven he’s anything more than a poor man’s Brendan Perlini.
In the NHL if you aren’t a scorer, big and fast doesn’t matter one bit. You need to bring other dimensions in spades.
If you don’t have hustle, defence, or grit, the Derek Ryan’s of the world will eat your lunch.
I beg to differ you can’t treat your prospects with this manner of thinking. Lavoie worked his ass off and you can’t find 1 game for him yet Demers gets a game and Holland looks like the big hero. Maybe he’s trying to make-up for allowing Babcock to scratch legend Modano out of game 1500.
Don’t believe the Oilers had the cap space to call up Lavoie instead of Demers when Ceci left the team for the birth of his child……..
Here is hoping his higher than league min NHL cap hit doesn’t create a similar scenario for him.
Not that he should have been called up in any event.
Its clearly oubvious that his offensive game spiked just before mid-season, in particular in the consistency aspect of it but, from watching him over the course of his pro career (and following him post draft in the Q), his overall game did indeed spike at that time as well.
Lets not forget, prior, when Lavoie wasn’t on a heater, he wasn’t just not producing, he was completely invisible, and a non-factor, for long long stretches.
I saw his overall game completely change. There were points in the second half of the season where he didn’t produce much but his overall game “stayed hot” – he was an absolute bully in puck retrieval, he was still cycling hard, creating space and driving the net and he was consistent as the high winger in the defensive zone and not cheating.
His overall game spiked, in my opinion, not just his production.
We’ve been down this road, OP. He was coming off an injury so of course he improved once healthy. If you look at the previous two seasons, Lavoie was an impressive player. He just was. The idea that anything other than his offense improved isn’t backed up by facts. He’s good. He’s NHL-ready.
I specifically spoke about the areas of his game that improved, in addition to his offence – i agreed with you.
I agree he’s good.
I agree he’s earned the opportunity to prove he’s NHL ready.
I don’t believe he is any sort of lock for the NHL but has earned the opportunity and I’m excited to see him at camp.
I believe his contract and NHL cap hit has a real opportunity to hinder a roster spot at times during the season.
I have been pretty vocal that I think Raphael Lavoie may have done himself a diservice by not signing a league minimum deal (with maybe a bit of a higher AHL salary) and taking his qualifying offer for apx $100K more, while in the NHL.
This is not vitriol at Lavoie or anything like that, its just that he is clearly not a lock for the NHL and that extra $100K of cap hit could potentially cost him a roster spot – for the sole reason of not having the cap space to fit it in.
We saw last season, an excess $7,500 on the cap made a difference between which of two players could be on the team.
I haven’t verified numbers but this is from Hart at Puckpedia and the Oilers would have room to fit in two league min players ($775K) for a 22 player roster if they could sign McLeod and Bouch for an aggregate of $5.6MM.
$5.6MM may be a bit low but, at the same time, $3.8MM + $1.8MM could get it done and then they could have gone Pederson and Lavoie for 12F/13F and run with a 22 player roster.
Of course, that would leave ZERO cap space and they wouldn’t be “accruing” any (although guys like Broberg and Holloway would probably be re-assigned (in paper) for true off days and travel days).
We know that Holland wants a 22 player roster but we also know that he wants some cap space – a buffer as well as for accrual. Well, he simply cannot have both.
I think what we are probably looking at is Lavoie, at his $875K (apx) as the 12F, Pederson waived and assigned (and first call-up) and they run a 21 player roster – this would give a bit of wiggle room to sign McLeod/Bouchard for more than $5.6MM combined if it takes.
Of course, there is also the potential for an external signing at or near league min (be it a Suter or a Toews or whatever) that could alter things as well. They could sign Suter, for example, or Comtois for example at league min (if they take league min) and run a 22 player roster with Pederson – that $100K for Lavoie could very well make a difference depending on what McLeod/Lavoie come in at and the cap hit of any external option – I mean if Towes wants $850K to sign – see ya Ralph, right?
Either way, as it stands now, Lavoie probably makes the team if he was a strong camp, on a 21 player roster, but the extra $100K does not make things easier for him and there are various scenarios where it could really hurt him.
There is a waiver risk with Lavoie, of course, but he very likely clears. I mean, if he’s waived, we are talking about a 23 year old, former 2nd round pick, that has zero NHL games and is coming off an OK but not great season in the AHL for a 22 year old that is cut from the NHL, yet again, and is more than league min (real money and cap hit). Are there any teams that don’t have their own Ralph Lavoie, or multiples of them?
In any event, I don’t think Holland hesitates to waive Lavoie in order to have the best possible roster available for his coach – its win now, right?
I only read the first line of your missive, but I’ll be succinct on one counterpoint: injuries.
Injuries happen and Lavoie will inevitably get into the lineup and his cap hit will be of no significance.
You can save your ink from now on.
OP’s point is that the 100k difference can be the difference between a genuine NHL shot (and perhaps a chance on a scoring line) and another year adrift. Being on the roster from day 1 and showing well in a smaller role and at practice would set him up better for getting favourable opportunities later and he’d be more likely to get that spot on a league minimum salary than at 874k.
If this is an indication of relations already being soured as Godot and others have suggested then that’s another matter and can be understood differently. If not, I agree with OP that this is strikes me as a tactical error by Lavoie.
😎
In addition to OP’s response, if they have to play a game a man short due to cap constraints, they can call up a player with a salary of less than 800K disqualifying him in that circumstance.
This year? The Oilers may not have rookies.
===================
I thought Philp or Lavoie had a chance going into the off season given the need for cheap contracts but here we are.
Anybody have any idea who Montreal might be interested in trading for him?
Looking through their roister, no one jumps out as a likelihood although perhaps a swap for one of their but they only have 4 players on $775K contracts.
Jesse Ylonen perhaps? He’s a 23 year old former 2nd round pick who is currently a RFA. 52 NHL games played.
Interesting that both Xavier Bourgault and Vincent Desharnais share the same agent with Lavoie.
Thanks. I wouldn’t expect an NHL ready player in return. I just think that our host is correct that Montreal has a predisposition to consider any player from Quebec if he becomes available so that would be a place to look. Ottawa as well.
Yep…and he’s from Chambly…a suburb of Montreal.
I would imagine he would be thrilled to go home.
Losing Lavoie might hurt in the medium to long term. You never really know with 22 year olds. But for this coming season I think we both agree development is not high on the priority list. You will recall that I have been saying for some time now that the 23-24 season represents the best odds to go all in.
Personally I would have moved some of the usual suspect’s salary this summer but I can see Holland thinking he can do better at the TD if he can just somehow manage to accrue a little cap space during the season.
Yeah…under the circumstances…this a tempest in search of a teapot.😀
If you look at the situation from the perspective of the player and his agent, it makes perfect sense since there really is no room for Lavoie in the top 9 and he is certainly not a prototypical 4th liner.
While the increased cap hit MAY be an inconvenience to the team, it’s hardly fatal
Not exactly a lot of room in Montreal’s top 9 either, and they have 15 forwards on 1-way deals.
No doubt he’d be happy to go play in Montreal or Laval though.
Not a ton of room in the Oilers top 9 but, at the same time, there is at least one spot. We have Holloway penciled in to 3LW and Foegle to 3RW and, while its unlikely that Lavoie would be able to take Foegle’s job, the other spot is currently held by another non-established prospect who he finished last season with as a teammate..
If Ralph is “betting on himself”, he likely believes he can compete with at least Holloway for that job.
The Philp loss really hurts for me. He turned in to “my favorite” Condor come year’s end and I think had a high chance of NHL games this coming year.
Of course, his happiness is paramount
——————–
Catching up on some Oilers Now at the gym this morning and I almost dropped the bar on my head hearing Stauffer bring up Josh Anderson and sending out a first round pick….. again.
I’m going to suggest that if Lavoie isn’t a two way player maybe they should move him sooner, rather than later . If he is one dimensional he may never play in the NHL. They should have a pretty good idea already , he’s been with the organization four years and this is his fifth. Playing on a fourth line with Mattias Janmark & Derek Ryan might be the best for his development. Does he play center as well ?
He’s a better 2-way player in the AHL than Klim Kostin was last season……
He did play a few games at center in the Q but was predominantly a winger and hasn’t played a shift of center as a pro (that I’ve seen).
To be honest, his skill set is best served as a winger.
Lets not forget though, Dylan Holloway HAS played center – his best season in the NCAA was as a center and he played a bit for the Condors.
I don’t see Woody going for Holloway at 4C though and, well, I wouldn’t be in favor of it unless they truly commit to giving the fourth line 10 plus minutes of 5 on 5 (except for the odd time) and I don’t think that commitment is necessarily coming.
i was thinking when was the last time a oilers prospect put up 30 goals in the AHL as a prospect?
Joe G. came to mind but he topped out at 29.
Just saw something interesting
the top 4 Oiler FW’s in terms of 5v5 GF% are no longer with the team.
*No, I am not making any value statement here. Just saw it and am passing it along.
Trading Lavoie certainly makes more sense than losing him on waivers. But seeing what they have in him at the NHL level first is even more important IMHO. It is definitely go time for chasing Stanley for the Oilers, but they also have time between the start of the season and the trade deadline to find out what they have in Lavoie before making a decision on him. The extra $100k hurts, but making a trade and not potentially finding a cheap in-house solution would be worse. I say all of this with the expectation that the team is planning to run a 21 man roster and not 22, so fitting in the extra $100k is doable to start the season.
Qualifying all of this with the fact that it obviously depends on the trade return.
1) yes, I do think its trending towards a 21 player roster which would allow for Lavoie (at the “extra $100K”) as 12F and a bit of wiggle room if they need to give McLeod/Bouch more than a combined $5.6MM
2) They may not be willing to take the waiver risk but, if he doesn’t make the team on merit, I do think he likely clears. Not a lock but more famous names than Raphael Lavoie do clear every October – most teams have a thier own similar tweener: a 23 year old, former 2nd rounder, with zero NHL games, coming off a good (but not great at 22 years old) AHL season that is cut again from the NHL.
Kostin cleared last October (as did Samorukov), for example.
The Athletic: Tyler Benson’s crossroads.
https://theathletic.com/4686110/2023/07/14/oilers-nhl-draft-tyler-benson/