One of the more unusual signings by Edmonton in the early hours of free agency was former Oilers winger Drake Caggiula. Looking at the team’s 50-man roster, the logical slotting is as replacement for Tyler Benson. That would mean Caggiula will be a top-six forward with the AHL Bakersfield Condors with some NHL action possible. Let’s have a look.
THE ATHLETIC!
Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
DRAKE CAGGIULA
Where has he been? Until last season, he was either playing in the NHL or on the injured list. Caggiula spent all of last season in the AHL (Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins), scoring 22-31-53 in 65 games. Those 65 games represent his first time in the AHL after turning pro in 2016-17 with Edmonton.
What kind of scorer is he in the NHL? Per 82 NHL games in his career, Caggiula is averaging 13-13-26. Connor Brown, another free-agent addition, is averaging 16-24-40 per 82 in his NHL career.
Is there an Oilers forward with similar career numbers to Cagguila? Per 82 games, Warren Foegele sits at 14-15-29, Ryan McLeod is 12-15-27.
Is Caggiula similar to these players in terms of expectation? No. Caggiula is 29, peaked as a role player offensively age 23, and he hasn’t played more than 40 NHL games in a season since the year he left the Oilers.
So he’s a lollygagger? No, it’s injuries. That has been his career. It isn’t a huge surprise. Caggiula is a rambunctious player in a smaller body (5.10, 176) so he’s having a Gilbert Brule experience.
What kind of injuries has he endured? Concussions, herniated disc, Covid, hand, visa issues, mouth, foot, hip, horrors, croup.
He did NOT have croup! Okay, but the other ones are true.
Where is he on the depth chart? Caggiula can play either wing, so that gives him extra utility. He can PK, and he did spend some time on an NHL power play but that was years ago.
Where is he on the depth chart? On left wing, I think it goes Evander Kane, Nuge, Dylan Holloway, Mattias Janmark, Raphael Lavoie, then Caggiula would battle with Carter Savoie and Matvey Petrov for AHL time. So, you could say he is a first recall LW option if Lavoie makes the team. Guys lke James Hamblin could be in there, too.
And on right wing? Depth chart is Zach Hyman, Connor Brown, Warren Foegele, Derek Ryan at the NHL level. After that, I do think Xavier Bourgault gets a push in Bakersfield, Seth Griffith the other skill job. Tyler Tullio will play on one of the top three lines. Caggiula could play anywhere in the AHL (lines 1-4) and he could be an early recall at this position as well.
How much do you think he’ll play? I haven’t completed the RE yet, but the range will be 1-20 games in the NHL. Probably seven, somewhere in there.
He’s first recall! Yeah, well, the Oilers have lots of options for first recall this coming season. Caggiula is in the mix with Lavoie (if he gets sent out), Hamblin, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg and we might see Xavier Bourgault by season’s end. Plus Lane Pederson, who could also made the Oilers.
So, who are your recalls? Haven’t made the list yet. Caggiula is on it.
What does pick224 say about his 2022-23 AHL season? He had 3 short-handed goals, posted .81 pts-game (that’s similar to Seth Griffith, who led the Condors a year ago). He owned a 49 percent goal share at even strength, the Penguins were 39 percent without him.
So that’s good? It’s excellent. I think the Oilers like his speed and utility, and if he can kill penalties a little and help outscore on the fourth line there’s a chance he plays in 40+ games for the first time since the pandemic.
What do you see as a possible AHL role? Caggiula may land the important job of helping develop RH rookie centre Jayden Grubbe. That’s a very important job for this organization to award.
Who are the other candidates? Brad Malone is the team leader, perhaps they run both centers on a line in an effort to develop Grubbe. Greg McKegg could be used in a similar way. In terms of style, and despite his youth, I like Tullio for the Grubbe line.
Kind of a modern Bulldog line? Well, that line had a quality prospect in Daniel Cleary who took some time to find his way but possessed true NHL talent. I’m not sure the current Condors have that player.
What about Bourgault? You’re always trumpeting him. I would love to see Caggiula-Grubbe-Bourgault at some point in the 2023-24 AHL season.
Cagguila 1-20 games? Really? I don’t think his resume warrants more. Opportunity may force him into more games, but the Oilers may make a trade if there’s a need. I don’t see him as a player who could deliver over 50 games at his point in his career. We’ll see.
Part of it is that you can bury an ELC but not Campbell’s contract. If it were a contract situation like Evander Kane had, the league allowed the 5M or so cap hit to be applied to the previous season where the Sharks had 5M in cap space to end the season. Mike Richards had his contract terminated and then the settlement has a cap penalty to the kings until 2028-29. So, it’s dependent on the situation but still has to be within the cap.
Campbells situation is nothing like Richard’s, Kane or Miller’s. Campbell’s would be a normal buyout under article 13 of the contract. In the other 3 cases, the players’ contracts were terminated under article 14 for breach. If that cause for termination is upheld, there are no cap hits.
Richard’s and Kane both appealed their cases and the settlements reached effectively implied that neither had breached their contract terms and the settlement $$ had to be accounted for in cap calculations.
It may be different clauses in the ELC, but Boston was not buying out the Miller contract either, they were terminating for breach. Miller appealed, but it seems possible that in the settlement, it was not deemed that he was wrongfully terminated so any settlement money won’t count against the cap.
Or maybe the settlement $$ fit under whatever little cap room Boston may have had left in 22/23 pushing more of the bonus money overage forward to 23/24. Capfriendly and Puckpedia don’t make looking at team’s past cap situations easy.
That isn’t really the question he asked though. He wasn’t asking if Campbell could be bought out or have his contract terminated. He stated that you could not avoid a buyout with a contract termination and financial settlement to avoid the buyout cap hit. I said Miller’s case could avoid a cap penalty because it was an ELC unlike previous situations like Kane and Richards. He didn’t ask about Campbell. He already knew the situation with Campbell.
I’m not sure why it being an ELC should mean anything. Could the Oilers agree to terminate Holloway’s contract for a financial settlement and just move on.
What about D. Ryan or M. Janmark – they are under the buryable amount – can the owner pay them some money and get out of those contracts with no cap hits?
Should have done that with Gryba a few years back.
Seems a stretch to equate this to a mutual agreement to terminate. Miller did not agree to have his contract terminated like you’re suggesting. Termination for Buyout’s are subject to clause 13 of the NHL standard agreement( or equivalent in the ELC). This termination was likely governed by clause 14. At the end of the day, it seems he was effectively terminated for breaching the terms of the contract. While there was financial settlement, it does not seem to include any indication that Miller was wrongfully terminated by the Bruins at least in the NHL’s eyes, who didn’t want Miller in the NHL at this time anyway.
While the major conduct which was the most problematic for Miller was several years prior, Neely admitted Boston had not done its full due diligence on the situation. While that is somewhat on Neely and the Bruins since the info was probably out there, they could argue that representations made by Miller and his agents did not fully disclose everything. Kind of like when applying for a green card or citizenship and having to report about past criminal records. If they find out you lied about it, you get deported.
That extra million is the cash they are paying to Mike Reilly over and above the 23/24 cap hit for his buyout. It is higher because the final year of Reilly’s contract that the Bruins bought out this year was $1 million higher than the 3 year AAV. Next year the cash and the cap hit of the buyout will be the same. So it is not related to Miller.
OriginalPouzar
July 23, 2023 3:33 pm
New episode of Mitts Off dropped today (Luke Gazdick’s pod) – his guest was Darnell Nurse.
Will listen at gym tomorrow morning – look forward to it.
jp
July 23, 2023 3:05 pm
Well I was certainly wrong about Samsonov’s award being closer to his ask than the team’s (it was a shade closer to Toronto’s).
But as Marc mentions below, even after buying out Matt Murray and LTIR-ing Jake Muzzin, they still need to lose someone making $1.96M or more to ice a compliant 21-man roster.
The candidates are McCabe, Jarnkrok, Kampf, Domi, Samsonov, Klingberg, Broadie, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Rielly, Marner, Tavares, Matthews. Be interesting to see Treliving does.
I won’t defend Treliving, though the players certainly share some of the blame for what happened in Calgary.
In terms of Shanahan and Toronto, I find the cult following Dubas has fascinating. I’m not suggesting he’s a bad GM, but many seem to think his shit doesn’t even stink.
He’s got lots of poor bets on his resume, and I’m not sure how Shanahan gets blamed for them.
I’ve asked this before and there’s no answer I can find. What is an acceptable number of mistakes by a general manager? Does one big mistake mean that GM should be fired, or does team success even after the mistake make up for it?
I don’t have an answer would love to have the conversation.
As is usually the case I don’t think there is any one answer, or right answer even. I do think that team success after a mistake can go a long way toward washing it away though.
Oh I’m no major fan of Dubas. Very little in my posting history for that position.
But it was Shanny that created the three-headed GM Hydra, it was Shanny that bet the farm on Dubas, who hired Babcock and who’s now pivoted to Treliving and allowed him reign to botch these deals.
I also can’t imagine that Shanny wasn’t involved in ok-ing the Tavares deal and I just can’t help but feel, Shanny in more than a few of the recent “snot and toughness,” type trades and signings.
At some point you develop a past and the smattering of corpses around Shanny never ceases to grow…
Klinberg was guns a blazing when the Stars lost in 7 in OT against Calgary a few years ago. It comes down to Treliving seeing peak Klinberg and liking him enough for a contract.
The start of this season will be a test of Woodcroft’s courage. Will he play it safe and start with the vets, or will he be courageous, and coach up and play the young guys to maximize the the team’s potential by the playoffs.
Man Toronto’s cap is a mess. Even if they buy out Murray, put Muzzin on LTIR and run a 21 man roster with one of their rookies in the AHL, they are still almost $2M over the cap and the only players (other then their rookies) who don’t have NMC or NTC protection are Reaves (who they just signed), Lafferty, Gambrell, Liljegren, Timmons and Giordano.
As things stnad they’d need to move more than one of those guys to get under the cap.
With Muzzin on LTIR for the season they are still $6,756,450 over the cap.
A Murray buyout saves them $4,000,000 which is already a gift from the gods on a $6,250,000 contract becausw Ottawa is picking up a bit.
If you subtract that $4M from their current overage they are down to 22 players and $2.75645 M over the cap. They have to run at least 20 players to start the season, I think, so it will be interesting to see their next move.
I think I have this right.
I wonder how the Nylander extension talks are going. 🥸
The Murray buyout costs them $2.0M next season as well.
I just replicated your numbers except I assigned/LTIRed Nick Roberston who (on Capfriendly) counts against the cap but not the number of players on the roster (so I have $1,959,732 over with 22).
There are 13 forwards, 7 dmen, and 2 goalies once they dump Murray so that is 22 players, no? That gives them 23 players with Robertson and a $2.75645 overage.
Shuffling the deck chairs. Calgary is just over the cap with 21 signed. I see the rationale for a trade but neither side can help the other out with money.
Backlund and Hanifin have NTC’s that easily circumvent trades to any team that still has cap space. Lindholm is a guy you want to keep. You are the guy that keeps harping on how cap space is king. At this point in the off season that is exactly correct. Nobody is throwing life lines to these guys.
Money, HH. It isn’t that they aren’t good players, it is that there are only a few teams with cap room and none of them would be attractive to players who want to win.
There are 32 teams and I am not going to go through all of them but just looking at how much room they have at the moment – and that is not much – does nothing unless you also look at the RFA’s they want to sign and roster size.
You saw how quickly Seattle went from looking in good shape to less than $1M after signing Dunn.
There is no money for more than half a dozen teams and half of those don’t want to spend anymore and none of them are teams that a player with a NTC would agree to move to.
Come on HH, they also have Swayman and Frederic scheduled for arbitration hearings. They don’t really have $5.4M. It’s like saying the Oilers have $5.6M in cap available.
So you’re suggesting the Bruins have no choice but to run Charlie Coyle as their 1C because they are too dumb to make the necessary moves to acquire someone else.
No, he is suggesting that as with Toronto, Edmonton, Vegas, Vancouver, Calgary, etc. etc. any trade is money in, money out.
There are about 3 teams left in the league who are willing and able to make trades that involve them spending more cap room. You tell me who that puts in the driver’s seat.
You typed a post that stated Boston could afford Lindholm’s $4.85 million because they had $5.4 million in space. That was just wrong. Just like you were wrong when you said on Friday that the arbitrator could only award Samsonov either the $2.4 or the $4.9 million and not something in between. You really just aren’t very good at this, but are good at attempting to move goal posts when someone points out your errors.
Yes, with Robertson they have 23 players and are $2.75M over. Your previous post said 22 players and $2.75M over so I thought you were counting Robertson’s salary but not his roster spot.
You’re right, I missed Robertson. My response was about the cap hit but I am not going back to count it again. It is enough to know that they have some things to figure out.
cowboy bill
July 23, 2023 11:54 am
IMO. Since Jonathan Toews is retiring, Paul Stastny will be the guy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Holland already has him in his back pocket , just waiting for the RFA’s to sign.
I’m pretty sure if Toews doesn’t retire and signs with the Oilers instead, JP will be buying a Toews Oilers jersey. He’s been fighting to dispel any unproven assumptions of Toews’ pending retirement for some time here.
The only somewhat substantive piece of information that Toews is retiring is that he wasn’t on his agent’s list of free agents a month ago – of course, at that time (and likely now), Toews hasn’t decided yet.
He very well may not play this season.
He very well may retire.
He very well may sit this coming season out and play the following year.
He very well may play this year.
Does anyone see any benefit to Toews to not have the information officially out there if he had decided anything?
defmn
July 23, 2023 10:50 am
A little info on Lavoie’s contract offer (#8) from Leavins this morning.
Maybe I am reading too much into hints and nuance but anybody else get the idea from reading the whole article that the Oilers are still looking for one more signing for that 21st spot on the roster?
Yes, 100% agreed, and I thought about posting something similar.
Mentions the Oilers had interest in Nosek, and then ends with an ‘if the Oilers run with 21 players the 21st needs to be a reliable, well-rounded, multi-purpose player’. I don’t think he was intending to describe Lavoie or Pederson with the statement.
Lavoie rationale: NHL or bust. I don’t give an eff about my AHL salary because I am not going to be there. They cannot bribe me with AHL dollars. Eff those AHL dollars. AHL dollars are a mindeff.
I’m not sure how he would know he’d get claimed. There is indeed a risk to the Oilers that he would but its more likely than not that he clears – just like hoards of “Ralph Lavoie’s” do every October
I would suspect his agent advised him to sign for league min and he didn’t take his agent’s advise. The Oilers offered him a very substantial AHL salary.
Last off-season, Klim Kostin who was the same age Ralph will be, with higher pedigree, NHL experience and a league min salary cleared…..
He’s going to be 23 at camp with zero NHL games – I respect his confidence, and do think he likely breaks camp with the team but I remain of the opinion it was a silly decision and could only serve to hurt his cause for very little upside.
Hart indicated to me that there are various agents that insist clients like Lavoie take the league min in these situations.
I have no sources but I do correspond with a person that has highly reputable information (and runs an important cap information site) who stated that Lavoie was offered league min with an AHL salary in the $200K-$300K range.
In this case, the AHL money is a mindeff. When one gets to the New World, one burns the boats. Lavoie’s mindset is NHL or bust. And he is signalling this to Jay and Kenny. A cushy AHL landing is NOT burning the boats. The AHL money also gives Jay or Kenny an easier option to delay a decision. Lavoie raises the stakes for everyone. The extra $100K also means that Lavoie makes it far less probable that he can be the 13th forward. Top 12 or waived. Jay and Kenny have “to shit or get off the pot” when it comes to Lavoie. Lavoie is not only putting himself on the spot, but also Jay and Kenny.
Lavoie is giving notice to “slow play” Holland and pissing on Jay’s “veteran safety blanket”.
He’s not putting anyone on the spot – he’s either 12F or waived – there isn’t going to be a 13F barring something unforeseen happening.
Chances are that $100K means nothing as they are looking at a 21 player roster and should have a few hundred grand (or like $500K or so) wiggle room with a 21 player roster (depending on what McLeod and Bouch come in at.
With that said, if they do come in a little lower and Holland wants to try and squeeze together 22 on the roster, that $100K could get Lavoie cut and that highly likely means the AHL, not another NHL team’s roster.
All Lavoie did was potentially make it tougher to make the team and even potentially decrease the small chances he’d get claimed.
Ralph Lavoie, the person and the player, can have any sort of mind-set and confidence and attitude coming in to camp he wants, even by making smart contractual decisions – if he needs the pressure of a silly contractual/financial decision to have the proper attitude at camp….
OriginalPouzar
July 23, 2023 10:30 am
He’s first recall! Yeah, well, the Oilers have lots of options for first recall this coming season. Caggiula is in the mix with Lavoie (if he gets sent out), Hamblin, Brad Malone, Greg McKegg and we might see Xavier Bourgault by season’s end. Plus Lane Pederson, who could also made the Oilers.
I could be wrong but, for me, presuming not additions and everyone healthy, I think that Lavoie/Pederson at 12F/13F and the team is likely to only carry 12 forwards so one of those two will be in the AHL – likely Pederson.
If the team only carries 21 (likely), that extra $100K won’t be prohibitive of Lavoie on the roster (unless McLeod/Bouch are in the $6.3MM range.
I have Caggiula in a tier right below Pederson/Lavoie.
The likes of Malone, Hamblin, Griffith, McKegg likely in the same tier as Drake but I think Drake is likely at the top of it.
Bourgault is in a tier of his own – way above any of those guys (except Lavoie) but unlikely an option until the turn of the calendar.
OmJo
July 23, 2023 10:24 am
You ever go onto HDB and look at the trending list, and wonder why within the last 5 minutes, somebody looked up Jacob Mancz, Tyler Beechey, and Kyle De Laurell?
John Chambers
July 23, 2023 10:07 am
The Drake scored the Oilers only goal in their G7 loss to the Ducks in 2017. He started the game on McDavid’s wing.
I don’t quite remember how he got promoted to the role for such a pivotal game, but I recall that Eberle and Pouliot were trash, and that Draisaitl centred his own line (Slepyshev & Lucic) and delivered a hat-trick the game prior.
Yes for sure. I didn’t mind him in his first stint as an Oiler. He should get some games this year, and can definitely be a useful depth piece (AHL and/or NHL).
I know you are posting this in jest but, if I remember correctly, Drake was always able to produce in the top 6 but he was such a poor 2-way player that his presence on the top lines, despite production, was a net negative.
Looking at those three years and McDavid/Drake were 26-23 goals with an expected goals below 50%……
The GA/60 skyrocketed to almost 4 GA/60 (McDavid went from 2.62 GA/60 away from Drake to 3.88 GA/60 with Drake).
So, the Bruins officially terminate Mitchell Miller’s contract with an agreed upon financial settlement.
I have no interest in discussing the Mitchell Miller incident itself but how does this contract termination work?
I mean, the Bruins signed this player to an ELC which was permitted, as far as I can tell.
Any player and team can mutually agree to terminate a contract but that means the contract is void and there is no financial obligation to the player.
In this case, there is a financial “settlement” to the player – how is that permitted?
This is essentially akin to a buyout without the cap hit – the player gets some money from the contract and the contract is gone.
I mean, the Oilers and Campbell can’t agree to terminate his contract for a financial settlement and avoid a cap hit.
How can the Bruins do that?
Part of it is that you can bury an ELC but not Campbell’s contract. If it were a contract situation like Evander Kane had, the league allowed the 5M or so cap hit to be applied to the previous season where the Sharks had 5M in cap space to end the season. Mike Richards had his contract terminated and then the settlement has a cap penalty to the kings until 2028-29. So, it’s dependent on the situation but still has to be within the cap.
Campbells situation is nothing like Richard’s, Kane or Miller’s. Campbell’s would be a normal buyout under article 13 of the contract. In the other 3 cases, the players’ contracts were terminated under article 14 for breach. If that cause for termination is upheld, there are no cap hits.
Richard’s and Kane both appealed their cases and the settlements reached effectively implied that neither had breached their contract terms and the settlement $$ had to be accounted for in cap calculations.
It may be different clauses in the ELC, but Boston was not buying out the Miller contract either, they were terminating for breach. Miller appealed, but it seems possible that in the settlement, it was not deemed that he was wrongfully terminated so any settlement money won’t count against the cap.
Or maybe the settlement $$ fit under whatever little cap room Boston may have had left in 22/23 pushing more of the bonus money overage forward to 23/24. Capfriendly and Puckpedia don’t make looking at team’s past cap situations easy.
That isn’t really the question he asked though. He wasn’t asking if Campbell could be bought out or have his contract terminated. He stated that you could not avoid a buyout with a contract termination and financial settlement to avoid the buyout cap hit. I said Miller’s case could avoid a cap penalty because it was an ELC unlike previous situations like Kane and Richards. He didn’t ask about Campbell. He already knew the situation with Campbell.
I’m not sure why it being an ELC should mean anything. Could the Oilers agree to terminate Holloway’s contract for a financial settlement and just move on.
What about D. Ryan or M. Janmark – they are under the buryable amount – can the owner pay them some money and get out of those contracts with no cap hits?
Should have done that with Gryba a few years back.
Seems a stretch to equate this to a mutual agreement to terminate. Miller did not agree to have his contract terminated like you’re suggesting. Termination for Buyout’s are subject to clause 13 of the NHL standard agreement( or equivalent in the ELC). This termination was likely governed by clause 14. At the end of the day, it seems he was effectively terminated for breaching the terms of the contract. While there was financial settlement, it does not seem to include any indication that Miller was wrongfully terminated by the Bruins at least in the NHL’s eyes, who didn’t want Miller in the NHL at this time anyway.
What terms of his contract did he breach since he signed it?
While the major conduct which was the most problematic for Miller was several years prior, Neely admitted Boston had not done its full due diligence on the situation. While that is somewhat on Neely and the Bruins since the info was probably out there, they could argue that representations made by Miller and his agents did not fully disclose everything. Kind of like when applying for a green card or citizenship and having to report about past criminal records. If they find out you lied about it, you get deported.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/34971594/cam-neely-says-bruins-failed-vetting-mitchell-miller
Take a look at the DEAD CAP SALARY EXPENDITURE line under Additional Statistics at Cap Friendly.
There is an extra $1M listed there that doesn’t appear to have a line item explanation. No idea if that is it or not.
That extra million is the cash they are paying to Mike Reilly over and above the 23/24 cap hit for his buyout. It is higher because the final year of Reilly’s contract that the Bruins bought out this year was $1 million higher than the 3 year AAV. Next year the cash and the cap hit of the buyout will be the same. So it is not related to Miller.
New episode of Mitts Off dropped today (Luke Gazdick’s pod) – his guest was Darnell Nurse.
Will listen at gym tomorrow morning – look forward to it.
Well I was certainly wrong about Samsonov’s award being closer to his ask than the team’s (it was a shade closer to Toronto’s).
But as Marc mentions below, even after buying out Matt Murray and LTIR-ing Jake Muzzin, they still need to lose someone making $1.96M or more to ice a compliant 21-man roster.
The candidates are McCabe, Jarnkrok, Kampf, Domi, Samsonov, Klingberg, Broadie, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Rielly, Marner, Tavares, Matthews. Be interesting to see Treliving does.
Why they gave $4.15 mln to Klingberg is beyond me.
Yeah, Treliving overextended himself, was probably expecting Nylander or whoever to be dealt by now.
And on Klingberg more generally, it seems that teams keep betting on him returning to what he was 5 years ago.
Treliving is kinda of a bad GM.
The tire fire in Calgary he left and the idiotic contracts in TO he’s already signed attest to that.
Soon everyone will realize Shanny is the problem in TO.
I won’t defend Treliving, though the players certainly share some of the blame for what happened in Calgary.
In terms of Shanahan and Toronto, I find the cult following Dubas has fascinating. I’m not suggesting he’s a bad GM, but many seem to think his shit doesn’t even stink.
He’s got lots of poor bets on his resume, and I’m not sure how Shanahan gets blamed for them.
I’ve asked this before and there’s no answer I can find. What is an acceptable number of mistakes by a general manager? Does one big mistake mean that GM should be fired, or does team success even after the mistake make up for it?
I don’t have an answer would love to have the conversation.
As is usually the case I don’t think there is any one answer, or right answer even. I do think that team success after a mistake can go a long way toward washing it away though.
Oh I’m no major fan of Dubas. Very little in my posting history for that position.
But it was Shanny that created the three-headed GM Hydra, it was Shanny that bet the farm on Dubas, who hired Babcock and who’s now pivoted to Treliving and allowed him reign to botch these deals.
I also can’t imagine that Shanny wasn’t involved in ok-ing the Tavares deal and I just can’t help but feel, Shanny in more than a few of the recent “snot and toughness,” type trades and signings.
At some point you develop a past and the smattering of corpses around Shanny never ceases to grow…
Klinberg was guns a blazing when the Stars lost in 7 in OT against Calgary a few years ago. It comes down to Treliving seeing peak Klinberg and liking him enough for a contract.
The start of this season will be a test of Woodcroft’s courage. Will he play it safe and start with the vets, or will he be courageous, and coach up and play the young guys to maximize the the team’s potential by the playoffs.
I suspect that Broberg will be 3rd pairing (if not 7D – he does love Vinny) and Ceci with Nurse.
I suspect that Holloway will be 3LW to start.
I suspect that Lavoie will be 4the line wing to start.
I could be very wrong.
Anybody know when we hear Samsanov’s arb award number? Is it today or tomorrow?
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
11m
Samsonov is $3.55M
The usual crap. Slice it down the middle. No wonder teams go low and agents go high.
https://theathletic.com/4713711/2023/07/23/maple-leafs-samsonov-re-signs/?source=user_shared_article
Samsonov is the 17th highest paid goalie to play more than half their team’s games last season with this new contract.
He had the 2nd best GAA & the 4th best Sv% &, yes, some of that is team driven but so are goals and points.
That article is just fluff and nonsense.
Man Toronto’s cap is a mess. Even if they buy out Murray, put Muzzin on LTIR and run a 21 man roster with one of their rookies in the AHL, they are still almost $2M over the cap and the only players (other then their rookies) who don’t have NMC or NTC protection are Reaves (who they just signed), Lafferty, Gambrell, Liljegren, Timmons and Giordano.
As things stnad they’d need to move more than one of those guys to get under the cap.
Yup. Just to show the math.
With Muzzin on LTIR for the season they are still $6,756,450 over the cap.
A Murray buyout saves them $4,000,000 which is already a gift from the gods on a $6,250,000 contract becausw Ottawa is picking up a bit.
If you subtract that $4M from their current overage they are down to 22 players and $2.75645 M over the cap. They have to run at least 20 players to start the season, I think, so it will be interesting to see their next move.
I think I have this right.
I wonder how the Nylander extension talks are going. 🥸
The Murray buyout costs them $2.0M next season as well.
I just replicated your numbers except I assigned/LTIRed Nick Roberston who (on Capfriendly) counts against the cap but not the number of players on the roster (so I have $1,959,732 over with 22).
There are 13 forwards, 7 dmen, and 2 goalies once they dump Murray so that is 22 players, no? That gives them 23 players with Robertson and a $2.75645 overage.
Not good.
I’m anticipating a Calgary/Leafs trade and expect it might be a big one.
Calgary has no cap space either though.
Shuffling the deck chairs. Calgary is just over the cap with 21 signed. I see the rationale for a trade but neither side can help the other out with money.
Calgary can very easily create cap space since they have so many players on expiring contracts.
Hanifin seems most likely to move but Lindholm and Backlund also might.
Backlund and Hanifin have NTC’s that easily circumvent trades to any team that still has cap space. Lindholm is a guy you want to keep. You are the guy that keeps harping on how cap space is king. At this point in the off season that is exactly correct. Nobody is throwing life lines to these guys.
Obviously Calgary would like to keep them all but that is exceedingly unlikely.
Any acquiring them will not be throwing Calgary a lifeline but will be getting very good hockey players.
Worth noting, Hanifin wants to play south if the border.
He’s from Boston and the Bruins are desperate for a1C….like Lindholm.
And what does Calgary get back? Draft picks? Because Boston has to shed salary to take that contract and I don’t see many players that are expendable.
Money, HH. It isn’t that they aren’t good players, it is that there are only a few teams with cap room and none of them would be attractive to players who want to win.
There are 32 teams and I am not going to go through all of them but just looking at how much room they have at the moment – and that is not much – does nothing unless you also look at the RFA’s they want to sign and roster size.
You saw how quickly Seattle went from looking in good shape to less than $1M after signing Dunn.
There is no money for more than half a dozen teams and half of those don’t want to spend anymore and none of them are teams that a player with a NTC would agree to move to.
The Bruins have $5.4 million in cap space.
Lindholm has a cap hit of $4.85 million.
Boston is likely waiting for a final decision from Bergeron before making a move but it’s getting late.
Come on HH, they also have Swayman and Frederic scheduled for arbitration hearings. They don’t really have $5.4M. It’s like saying the Oilers have $5.6M in cap available.
It’s like numbers with dollar signs in front of them aren’t real numbers for HH.
They’re real numbers when the Oilers are involved.
So you’re suggesting the Bruins have no choice but to run Charlie Coyle as their 1C because they are too dumb to make the necessary moves to acquire someone else.
No, he is suggesting that as with Toronto, Edmonton, Vegas, Vancouver, Calgary, etc. etc. any trade is money in, money out.
There are about 3 teams left in the league who are willing and able to make trades that involve them spending more cap room. You tell me who that puts in the driver’s seat.
Both you and he have suggested teams like Calgary and Toronto are hooped because, as you put it, no one will throw them a lifeline.
I guess they’ll just have to sit out the season.
You typed a post that stated Boston could afford Lindholm’s $4.85 million because they had $5.4 million in space. That was just wrong. Just like you were wrong when you said on Friday that the arbitrator could only award Samsonov either the $2.4 or the $4.9 million and not something in between. You really just aren’t very good at this, but are good at attempting to move goal posts when someone points out your errors.
I have no idea what that means.
Yes, with Robertson they have 23 players and are $2.75M over. Your previous post said 22 players and $2.75M over so I thought you were counting Robertson’s salary but not his roster spot.
And no, it’s not good.
You’re right, I missed Robertson. My response was about the cap hit but I am not going back to count it again. It is enough to know that they have some things to figure out.
IMO. Since Jonathan Toews is retiring, Paul Stastny will be the guy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Holland already has him in his back pocket , just waiting for the RFA’s to sign.
It certainly appears to be trending that way, but there’s been nothing official on Toews has there?
There has not.
I’m pretty sure if Toews had made the decision to retire, we would know that had done so.
I’m pretty sure if Toews doesn’t retire and signs with the Oilers instead, JP will be buying a Toews Oilers jersey. He’s been fighting to dispel any unproven assumptions of Toews’ pending retirement for some time here.
The only somewhat substantive piece of information that Toews is retiring is that he wasn’t on his agent’s list of free agents a month ago – of course, at that time (and likely now), Toews hasn’t decided yet.
He very well may not play this season.
He very well may retire.
He very well may sit this coming season out and play the following year.
He very well may play this year.
Does anyone see any benefit to Toews to not have the information officially out there if he had decided anything?
A little info on Lavoie’s contract offer (#8) from Leavins this morning.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/do-we-already-know-what-two-edmonton-oilers-rfas-are-signing-for-9-things
Maybe I am reading too much into hints and nuance but anybody else get the idea from reading the whole article that the Oilers are still looking for one more signing for that 21st spot on the roster?
Yes, 100% agreed, and I thought about posting something similar.
Mentions the Oilers had interest in Nosek, and then ends with an ‘if the Oilers run with 21 players the 21st needs to be a reliable, well-rounded, multi-purpose player’. I don’t think he was intending to describe Lavoie or Pederson with the statement.
Exactly how I read it.
Lavoie rationale: NHL or bust. I don’t give an eff about my AHL salary because I am not going to be there. They cannot bribe me with AHL dollars. Eff those AHL dollars. AHL dollars are a mindeff.
Yup. Pretty sure he knows a team will take him if he goes on waivers. If he doesn’t know that he needs a new agent.
I’m not sure how he would know he’d get claimed. There is indeed a risk to the Oilers that he would but its more likely than not that he clears – just like hoards of “Ralph Lavoie’s” do every October
I would suspect his agent advised him to sign for league min and he didn’t take his agent’s advise. The Oilers offered him a very substantial AHL salary.
Last off-season, Klim Kostin who was the same age Ralph will be, with higher pedigree, NHL experience and a league min salary cleared…..
He’s going to be 23 at camp with zero NHL games – I respect his confidence, and do think he likely breaks camp with the team but I remain of the opinion it was a silly decision and could only serve to hurt his cause for very little upside.
Hart indicated to me that there are various agents that insist clients like Lavoie take the league min in these situations.
I have no sources but I do correspond with a person that has highly reputable information (and runs an important cap information site) who stated that Lavoie was offered league min with an AHL salary in the $200K-$300K range.
I still don’t understand his decision.
In this case, the AHL money is a mindeff. When one gets to the New World, one burns the boats. Lavoie’s mindset is NHL or bust. And he is signalling this to Jay and Kenny. A cushy AHL landing is NOT burning the boats. The AHL money also gives Jay or Kenny an easier option to delay a decision. Lavoie raises the stakes for everyone. The extra $100K also means that Lavoie makes it far less probable that he can be the 13th forward. Top 12 or waived. Jay and Kenny have “to shit or get off the pot” when it comes to Lavoie. Lavoie is not only putting himself on the spot, but also Jay and Kenny.
Lavoie is giving notice to “slow play” Holland and pissing on Jay’s “veteran safety blanket”.
It’s never a good idea to burn the boat Godot.
He’s not putting anyone on the spot – he’s either 12F or waived – there isn’t going to be a 13F barring something unforeseen happening.
Chances are that $100K means nothing as they are looking at a 21 player roster and should have a few hundred grand (or like $500K or so) wiggle room with a 21 player roster (depending on what McLeod and Bouch come in at.
With that said, if they do come in a little lower and Holland wants to try and squeeze together 22 on the roster, that $100K could get Lavoie cut and that highly likely means the AHL, not another NHL team’s roster.
All Lavoie did was potentially make it tougher to make the team and even potentially decrease the small chances he’d get claimed.
Ralph Lavoie, the person and the player, can have any sort of mind-set and confidence and attitude coming in to camp he wants, even by making smart contractual decisions – if he needs the pressure of a silly contractual/financial decision to have the proper attitude at camp….
I could be wrong but, for me, presuming not additions and everyone healthy, I think that Lavoie/Pederson at 12F/13F and the team is likely to only carry 12 forwards so one of those two will be in the AHL – likely Pederson.
If the team only carries 21 (likely), that extra $100K won’t be prohibitive of Lavoie on the roster (unless McLeod/Bouch are in the $6.3MM range.
I have Caggiula in a tier right below Pederson/Lavoie.
The likes of Malone, Hamblin, Griffith, McKegg likely in the same tier as Drake but I think Drake is likely at the top of it.
Bourgault is in a tier of his own – way above any of those guys (except Lavoie) but unlikely an option until the turn of the calendar.
You ever go onto HDB and look at the trending list, and wonder why within the last 5 minutes, somebody looked up Jacob Mancz, Tyler Beechey, and Kyle De Laurell?
The Drake scored the Oilers only goal in their G7 loss to the Ducks in 2017. He started the game on McDavid’s wing.
I don’t quite remember how he got promoted to the role for such a pivotal game, but I recall that Eberle and Pouliot were trash, and that Draisaitl centred his own line (Slepyshev & Lucic) and delivered a hat-trick the game prior.
Depth at wing was a problem back then.
What kind of injuries has he endured?
Lupus… is it lupus?!
It is ALWAYS lupus or sarcoid or TB or syphilis or paraneoplastic…..
Caggiula scored 2.36 P/60 in >350 minutes as a McDavid winger in his first go round. He’s got a chance!
(I jest, though those numbers are real)
One of the things we do have to keep in mind is that he has utility. He can play up and down the lineup. Staying healthy doing it is the issue.
Yes for sure. I didn’t mind him in his first stint as an Oiler. He should get some games this year, and can definitely be a useful depth piece (AHL and/or NHL).
Has his ability to defend and to not get crushed in every board battle improved?
I know you are posting this in jest but, if I remember correctly, Drake was always able to produce in the top 6 but he was such a poor 2-way player that his presence on the top lines, despite production, was a net negative.
Looking at those three years and McDavid/Drake were 26-23 goals with an expected goals below 50%……
The GA/60 skyrocketed to almost 4 GA/60 (McDavid went from 2.62 GA/60 away from Drake to 3.88 GA/60 with Drake).
New for The Athletic: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
https://theathletic.com/4704363/2023/07/23/oilers-tatar-stastny-toews-ufas/