Baby, I can’t stay, you got to roll me
And call me the tumblin’ dice
Always in a hurry, I never stop to worry
Don’t you see the time flashin’ by
Honey, got no money
I’m all sixes and sevens and nines
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
TUMBLING DICE
Oilers fans are a spoiled bunch. Do you remember Connor McDavid’s rookie season? His most common linemates were Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle, and that trio played 149 minutes together (10-9 goals, 58 percent expected goals). The checkdown line was Eberle and Patrick Maroon (once acquired) and then Pouliot and Nail Yakupov.
McDavid’s options this year are Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, RNH and Connor Brown. Is that better? And you can’t include Taylor Hall because Todd McLellan played 97-4 together a palrty 76 minutes at five-on-five in their only season together.
PROCUREMENT
Ken Holland’s procurement style is a curious thing. The Oilers aren’t in rebuild mode, so the old timey procurement style (draft 10, sign college and CHL kids and trade for two prospects every summer) isn’t going to work for obvious reasons. However, the numbers of players who could be projected into a feature role (top two lines, top two pairings, starting goalie and No. 3 center) is very low in recent seasons. Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, possibly Philip Broberg.
Part of that is the high quality of the men occupying feature roles (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Hyman, Kane, Brown, McLeod, Nurse, Ekholm, Bouchard, Ceci, Skinner), but that is hiding a razor thin pipeline of potential replacements.
This summer, RH defenseman Beau Akey was drafted and he qualifies. The rest of the recruitment group is either NHL or close (Connor Brown, Lane Pederson, Drake Caggiula, Noah Hoefenmayer, Ben Gleason, Cam Dineen) or prospects outside the NHL destined to fall short of a feature role (Jayden Grubbe, Carl Berglund) even if they make the NHL.
The young men turning pro (Berglund, Grubbe, Matvey Petrov, Max Wanner) profile as role players save for Petrov, who has the talent to be a top-six winger down the line. Wanner might have top-four defense in his future should he develop well, but that’s two entering the chat in one summer. Low, lower, lowest.
In the spring and summer of 2015, after taking over from Craig MacTavish as GM, Peter Chiarelli was mostly concerned with building the NHL team (Cam Talbot, Andrej Sekera, et cetera). He did sign goalie Eetu Laurikainen (it was May so that deal might have been a remnant from MacT), traded for Griffin Reinhart, signed winger Braden Christoffer.
Draft picks Anton Slepyshev, Joey Laleggia, Marco Roy, Kyle Platzer, Greg Chase and Ben Betker all turned pro or took the QE2 to North America.
Chiarelli also drafted Connor McDavid. Kind of a big one. Darnell Nurse would turn pro, Leon Draisaitl playing his first full season. We won’t see that kind of talent infusion again.
My spidey senses tell me the Oilers need to be more active in college and undrafted CHL free agency. No?
Fast forward to today, Petrov may turn into an NHL skill winger and perhaps Wanner exceeds the expectation of his draft number and plays in the NHL. I like Grubbe as a prospect, maybe he makes it.
Look, what I’m saying is this. Right now, the Oilers have three young blue (Philip Broberg, Vincent Desharnais, Markus Niemelainen) trying to figure things out in the NHL. The club has interesting names in the minors who are prospects, I’ll include Wanner and Phil Kemp and maybe you have a wider view and include others (Luca Munzenberger). Beau Akey is the best defenseman who will play outside pro hockey next season.
In the fall of 2015, Edmonton had Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart and Brandon Davidson getting NHL time. Two of the three emerged as real NHL defensemen. Bubbling under were future NHL players Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, John Marino, William Lagesson, Jordan Oesterle and Brad Hunt. That’s just the guys who made it! In December of 2015, I ranked 15 defensemen (the top-20 was 43 long!) and there were some very good names.
In the summer top-20 at The Athletic for 2023, I ranked seven defensemen. Three of them are Desharnais, Niemelainen and Kemp, three more are Akey, Wanner and Nikita Yevseyev and the last one is Luca Munzenberger.
The 2015 list had nine current or future NHL players. The current list has seven prospects.
I understand the Oilers are in a different part of the winning cycle, but would like to see more signings from Europe, college and CHL free agency. The current bet is that all of these men can play in the NHL, but that doesn’t mean they should play. If Vincent Desharnais and Markus Niemelainen had more competition than Phil Kemp, that would be a good thing, right? Just because your team doesn’t have the depth, and you play in the NHL, doesn’t mean you’re the best option. That’s my point.
The counter? Frankly, Desharnais’ results. They’re an effective shut your mouth response.
WINTER 2015 TOP-20 PROSPECTS
- Connor McDavid
- Leon Draisaitl
- Darnell Nurse
- Anton Slepyshev
- Griffin Reinhart
- Laurent Brossoit
- Anders Nilsson
- Brandon Davidson
- Ethan Bear
- Iiro Pakarinen
- Bogdan Yakimov
- Jujhar Khaira
- Caleb Jones
- Kyle Platzer
- Ziyat Paigin
- William Lagesson
- Joey Laleggia
- Dillon Simpson
- Greg Chase
- John Marino
- David Musil
- Eetu Laurikainen
- Jordan Oesterle
- Kale Kessy
- Tyler Pitlick
- Andrew Miller
- Mitch Moroz
- Tyler Vesel
- Josh Winquist
- Alexis Loseau
- Ben Betker
- Miroslav Svoboda
- Brad Hunt
- Braden Christoffer
- Zach Nagelvoort
- Keven Bouchard
- Aidan Muir
- Martin Gernat
- Evan Campbell
- Ty Rimmer
- Marco Roy
- Josh Currie
- Ryan Hamilton
New for The Athletic: Oilers’ hidden gems that could impact the 2023-24 team
https://theathletic.com/4731203/2023/07/29/oilers-roster-2023-24-hidden-gems/
A more agnostic look at McLeod comps (ie – not just using players who’ve filed for arbitration in the last couple of seasons.
So these are players going back to summer 2017 who:
-Signed 1-2 year RFA deals
-Were listed on Capfriendly as centers (could also have been listed as C/W)
-Were between 22 and 25 years old
-Had played at least 40 games and scored 0.3-0.5 points/game the season prior
I’ll note the Cap in respective years and how much higher it is in 2023.
Listed is players age, boxcars, points/game, TOI and contract
Recall that McLeod’s season looks like this:
Ryan McLeod 23 57 11-12-23 0.40 14:11 (???)
2017 ($75M cap, 11% higher today)
Ryan Spooner 25 78 11-28-39 0.50 14:05 (1 x $2.85M)
(he had scored 49 points the previous season, so not really a comparable)
2018 ($79.5M cap, 5% higher today)
Chris Tierney — 24 82 17-23-40 0.49 15:59 (2 x $2.9375M)
Charles Hudon – 24 72 10-20-30 0.42 14:01 (1 x $650k)
Ryan Strome — 24 82 13-21-34 0.41 15:13 (2 x $3.1M)
(he’d already had a 50 point season and more than 120 career points in 2018)
Ryan Hartman – 23 78 11-20-31 0.40 13:03 (1 x $875k)
Mark Jankowski 23 72 17-8-25 0.35 13:21 (2 x $1.675M)
2019 ($81.5M cap, 2.5% higher today)
Evan Rodrigues- 25 74 9-20-29 0.39 15:49 (1 x $2.0M)
Sam Bennett —- 23 71 13-14-27 0.38 13:17 (2 x $2.55M)
(had 4 seasons in the league between 26 and 36 point by 2019)
Andrew Copp — 24 69 11-14-25 0.36 12:09 (2 x $2.28M)
Jason Dickinson 23 67 6-16-22 0.33 13:22 (2 x $1.5M)
Ryan Hartman — 24 83 12-14-26 0.31 13:07 (2 x $1.9M)
(had 31, 31 and 26 point seasons)
2020 ($81.5M cap, 2.5% higher today)
Jack Roslovic 23 71 12-17-29 0.41 14:53 (2 x 1.93M)
Nicholas Paul 25 56 9-11-20 0.36 14:26 (2 x $1.35M)
Tyson Jost — 22 67 8-15-23 0.34 12:46 (1 x $874k)
2021 ($81.5M cap, 2.5% higher today)
Tyson Jost — 23 54 7-10-17 0.31 14:07 (2 x 2.0M)
2022 ($82.5M cap, 1.2% higher today)
Barrett Hayton — 22 60 10-14-24 0.40 16:07 (2 x 1.775M)
Isac Lundeström 22 80 16-13-29 0.36 15:29 (2 x 1.8M)
Blake Lizotte —- 24 70 10-14-24 0.34 12:09 (2 x 1.675M)
Morgan Geekie – 23 73 7-15-22 0.30 12:36 (1 x 1.4M)
2023 so far
Cody Glass — 24 72 14-21-35 0.49 14:46 (2 x 2.5M)
Noah Cates — 24 82 13-25-38 0.46 17:46 (2 x 2.625M)
Jack McBain – 23 82 12-14-26 0.32 13:58 (2 x 1.6M)
Who knows, but I feel better now than I did before that McLeod (we it to got to the hearing) is unlikely to be awarded something in the $2.5M range.
Epic post! Really digging the deep dives lately.
Not to piss on the rug, but wouldn’t cap% be a more effective way to convey contract value than AAV? Considering that you’ve noted the spread in cap over the years. Pretty sure it’s one of those readily available metrics on CF, which is why I make mention.
And I don’t have any empirical evidence, but my gut tells me Tyson Jost is a decent comp for the Highlander. Speed, playing C on a deep team, similar number of games and output. I know not the degree to which Jost played on special teams.
I’d love to see the number under $2MM but wouldn’t be upset if it were $2×2, either.
I don’t think Cap% is readily available except on each team’s page for the current season, less so for previous seasons. I could have calculated it but the % difference from this seasons cap gives basically the same information.
Yeah, definitely wouldn’t be upset with $2M x 2 for McLeod at this point.
Good point on the cap % for previous seasons, I overlooked that detail.
Appreciate the digging you’ve shared.
Every contract on Capfriendly shows what the cap% of the cap annual AAV was on the day it was was signed. Also on the active player page summary, however you filter the players, you can select the contract year at at top, then in the results display just above the table choose cap %. I agree that how you’ve done it gives similar info – but if you ever need this in the future.
For example, this search captures the contracts of many of the players you had for 2019. Strome (3.9%), Tierney (3.7%), Hudon (0.9%), Jankowski (2.1%) and Hartman (1.1%).
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2019/caphit/all/center?signing-status=rfa&contract=standard&stats-season=2023&display=caphit-percent&hide=skater-stats,goalie-stats&limits=caphit-500000-3500000
Darn fine work. WOuld like to see it summarized with the equivalent amounts adjusted for the cap rise for easier comparison, in order from highest to lowest award . with a cutoff line in the middle for those who had performed well enough before their deal to command more than McLeod and maybe one more cutoff line for those who clearly underperformed McLeod. From first blush it looks like 1.8 to 2M would be a fair rate to these comparables but it is late and my eyes are weak. Do I have that about right?
Great piece LT. I get why using math is right for the draft. However after that to me the most offensive or skilled player isn’t necessarily the most helpful to the NHL team. It is players who can help fill holes and contribute to outscoring, and don’t need a babysitter
Desharnais has far more value to the Oilers than a Brad Hunt would. Brad has a lot more skill. The Oilers don’t need it. Brad can’t play defense. To me Akey has very little chance of sticking around with the Oilers. If you aren’t elite you have to be normal sized, reliable, willing to be physical, and skate well. I doubt he’s elite at offense at the NHL level. Maybe he’s a trade chip
Some players are like a former partner you can’t help going back to, like the Hunts Chiassons or Gagners of the NHL, always finding a short gig. They are familiar, help in a pinch, but really aren’t good NHL players overall on a contender, for various reasons
Akey will definitely need to add some bulk, but by all accounts he’s an excellent skater, and there have been mentions of plus defending as well.
Looking at ‘comparable’ players to McLeod who filed for arbitration in the last few summers. I’m looking at guys who played center and obviously who had somewhat similar stats.
McLeod’s numbers for Reference
(boxcars, points/game, TOI/game, faceoffs, FO%)
2023 — 57 11-12-23 0.40 14:11 598 48%
Career 138 20-25-45 0.33
2023 Arbitration filings
Noah Cates 24yo (agreed to 2 x $2.65M)
2023 — 82 13-25-38 0.46 17:46 1054 40%
Career 98 18-29-47 0.48
Philipp Kurashev 23yo (was awarded 2 x $2.25M)
2023 — 70 9-16-25 0.36 17:25 190 45% (missed that he didn’t really play center)
Career 191 23-39-62 0.32
Brett Howden 25yo (agreed to 2 x $1.9M)
2023 —- 54 6-7-13 0.24 13:04 227 52%
Career 279 31-51-82 0.29
Jack McBain 23yo (agreed to 2 x $1.6M)
2023 — 82 12-14-26 0.32 13:59 840 44%
Career 92 14-15-29 0.32
2022 Arbitration filings
Isaac Lundestrom 22yo (agreed to 2 x $1.8M)
2022 — 80 16-13-29 0.36 15:29 879 45%
Career 151 22-22-44 0.29
Morgan Geekie 24yo (agreed to 1 x $1.4M)
2022 — 73 7-15-22 0.30 12:36 669 53%
Career 111 13-22-35 0.32
2021 there really weren’t any comparables in the same ball park.
-Cates is the highest number in the group. He scored more and played a ton as a rookie (including close to 2 minutes on both the PP and PK).
-Lundestrom looks like the closest comp in the group in terms of scoring, TOI and role. $1.8M last year.
-Kurashev’s stats look similar though he played much more per game and also mostly played the wing. $2.25M will drive things up, though I’m not sure McLeod would be awarded more than him.
-Howden’s $1.9M deal seems pretty high based on his boxcars. He did have a very good playoff though, and his previous deal paid him $1.5M. Also only a sometimes C. He’d be a good guy for McLeod’s camp to use (though not sure if they can say ‘look Ryan is better than this guy who gets paid $xx, or whether it’s most important to make a good statistical match)
-McLeod does look like he’s ahead of McBain and Geekie, though not by all that much. Their $1.6M and $1.4M deals should help McLeod.
Anyway, arbitration comparables are not limited to previous players who filed for arbitration (though ELCs and UFA deals are not admissible), so this would just be a starting point in making comparisons.
Another possible comparison is Eetu Loustarinen who has scored 78 points in 212 games or 0.37 ppg. Turns 25 in September. Just signed for 3 x $3 mln. The 2 yr. equivalent is probably close to Cates’ 2 x $2.65 mln. McLeod’s offensive production is somewhat less so his salary should be a bit shy of this number.
So maybe it comes out near 2 x $2.3 mln. If Bouchard gets 2 x $3.9 mln, I could live with that as I think that would allow Lavoie to fit on a 21 man roster.
Bouchard should be considered insane if he signs a two year deal.
Perhaps you are right, but in that case are Byram or K’andre Miller insane? If Bouchard signs 1 year, it would be for a lower AAV, maybe low to mid 3’s.
Byram is almost two years younger and will be (barring injury) getting second line minutes.
K’Andre Miller signed for two years at $3.9 million but does not get significant power play time and won’t unless Adam Fox passes away unexpectedly.
Miller had a grand total of 3 PP last season.
Bouchard is very likely to benefit from significant power play time and production next season which would give him a very strong case for a huge raise in the offseason…scorers get paid.
Adam Fox is already bringing home $9.5 million a season and while Bouchard doesn’t have his defensive chops a prime role on the Oiler PP will vastly increase his next contract..
Stauffer has been saying the Oilers will absolutely be getting a second year on Bouch – of course, there can be no certainty, the player could refuse but it seems highly likely.
Yeah, Loustarinen scored quite a bit more than McLeod (0.52 to 0.40 points per game, and he played a full 82 games as well). His deal also only kicks in in 24-25 and buys one UFA season. I’d think that’s well clear of McLeod, and I’m still hoping that McLeod comes in under $2.3M. We’ll find out soon enough.
Nice writeup from Bruce Curlock on Nikita Yeseyev, including some clips of him on the ice.
Kid has some nice mobility and poise with the puck in addition to apparently size and defending ability. I’m more encouraged about him as a prospect after seeing him in action a little bit.
https://oilersnation.com/news/the-edmonton-oilers-prospect-report-nikita-yevseyev-2022-23-season-review
The joke about Boris and Natasha buying used Lada’s by itself makes reading the article worthwhile.
It was a great read and great to finally some video on this kid.
I’ve been talking about this kid for a bit but it was mainly base off of his numbers and the odd snippet from Russia.
As Bruce alluded to, what this kid did as an 18 year old in the KHL is very impressing. If I’m not mistaken, he was only in the KHL due to an obscure rule that allows KHL teams to carry and dress an EXTRA player that’s 18-19 years old. Generally these players get like 2-3 minutes per game and usually in garbage time.
For Yeseyev to earn upwards of 14 minutes per game for a long stretch is highly impressive and encouraging.
My only real concern is absolutely no idea if he even has thoughts of coming over the North America – for all we know, he has no intention of leaving home or, of course, maybe the NHL is his dream – no idea.
Thanks for the heads up! JP do you know anything about Mr Curlock? I couldn’t find anything online but am curious, pretty knowledgeable fella. I like how he like at hockey
The Oilers management group should be all over communication with this kid. Making sure he’s feeling a part of plans and welcomed. I don’t have confidence that they are, however Holland does know Russians well compared to our tattered history with players from there
If the pipeline is shallow he is an answer. Not high offense (won’t need a giant paycheque) and a very good mobile player with NHL size. Love it
Looks at hockey not ‘like’
I don’t know anything about Bruce Curlock, but I think LT, McCurdy and others may.
Yeah, Yeseyev looks like he could be something. The Oilers scouted him and picked him so presumably they’re having some contact with him post draft.
I believe he has some coaching experience at a fairly competitive level.
Elliotte Friedman@FriedgeHNIC·59m
Arizona and Jack McBain have a 2x$1.6M settlement, avoiding arbitration
Elliotte Friedman@FriedgeHNIC·58m
I’m told the actual number is $1,599,999M per year
———————
McBain is a LH Center 82 12-14-26, 13:59 per game.
Feature penalty killer who barely played on the PP. 3rd round pick.
McLeod comparables high and low.
I do feel like the talk of McLeod getting (or being awarded) something in the $2.5M range is pretty unlikely.
Well that is encouraging.
This is likely helpful but McLeod put up similar offence in 57 games – I’m not sure if the arbitrator is permitted to look a “per games played” or just the straight production numbers.
The Kurashev arb award will remain concerning to me – its highly arguable that McLeod is in that range if not higher.
I AM glad we’ll have a definitive answer within like a week.
Yeah not sure either. They do apparently take games played/missed due to injury into account though.
Given that Kurashev played 3 minutes more per game than McLeod, and was similar in other areas I’m hopeful McLeod would actually come in lower (and as Redbird was suggesting the other day, it’s likely the club will elect 1 year, which would bring the number lower again).
Sure, TOI/G could be cited but also that Kurashev had almost a minute more per game on the PP so his offensive stats are a bit less impressive in that regard as compared to McLeod’s.
The club could elect one year but the indications are they are looking for 2 years (Stauffer).
Oilers “squeezed” McLeod last year, did they not? In order to fit Yams contract in?
Now he’s getting squeezed again for another?
We are going to lose this guy when he has rights lol.
I’d wager there are roughly 500-600 NHL players who feel like their salaries have been squeezed in order to fit someone else in under the cap.
I mean, 30 teams, ~20 roster players, is 600. I don’t think 85%+ of players feel their salaries have been squeezed to the point where it goes to arb.
Oilers need to do what they need to do. I just don’t know if McLeod will be receptive to year 3 of being squeezed.
They should be squeezed. The impact players are relatively underpaid and the replacement level guys were making too much. It seems it’s balancing out because of the flat cap. Once it goes up back to normal old ways methinks
What do you figure the Oilers should pay McLeod so that he doesn’t feel squeezed?
not 2y x 1.6
he’s going to get bent over regardless, boooch is the pedestal
Surely you didn’t take my post to say McLeod should be paid $1.6M?
I said ‘McLeod comparables high and low’, with the oft mentioned Kurashev award of $2.25M being the ‘high’.
Also, since McLeod has arbitration rights and will sign before Bouchard does I’m having a hard time seeing how Bouchard is any kind of pedestal.
but he’s not going to get bent over – he has arb rights, he filed for arb and, if he chooses, he can let the decision be made by an arbitrator.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Boston and Trent Frederic have exchanged arbitration numbers — team: 2x$1.4M…player: one year at $2.9M.
I think Grubbe will surprise, he has all the physical tools (his shot is much better than his goal totals indicate), he plays the right way and he is extraordinarily determined and hard-working. He’s got the right blend of everything and it would not surprise me if he gets an NHL game this season.
He won’t be a 20 goal scorer or anything like that, but he has 10+ % shooting percentage and this is fairly consistent.
Same goes for FO%, in his last season he was 58%, but it wasn’t a big improvement season over season, he was showed a gradual improvement, but was at 50% from the start of his career.
I will do a numbers breakdown this evening, travelling shortly, so don’t have much time.
He is a very prepared human, from what I can tell. This was such a great move by Holland, so don’t dismiss or overlook him. Additionally, I would never want to dismiss an undrafted NHLer, but Pederson has a legit challenger for NHL playing time in Grubbe. I hope for good health to both players. Has the org ever had two RHC 4th line prospects at the same time like this? I don’t believe they have….
We wait…..
Haven’t left yet, so here it is:
I am focusing on goal-scoring as a measure of offensive prowess, since it is the most difficult skill in hockey. Assists can inflate offense, and being unable to tally 1st and 2nd assists, I have focus on this aspect as the best back of the napkin offensive metric. Faceoff success is another valuable skill.
2019-20: 6 goals on 81 shots 7.4%, 56.3% FO’s on 680 attempts
2020-21: 1 goal on 11 shots 9.1%, 50% on 92 draws
21-22: 14 goals on 144 shots 9.7%, 56.5% on 1288 draws
22-23: 18 goals on 160 shots 11.3%, 57.95% on 1377 draws
In the playoffs he had excellent FO results, not much in the way of goal scoring. 4 goals on 7.3% and 57.5% on 550 draws in 2 playoff seasons.
I had intended on doing a side by side comparison with Lane Pederson, but the numbers I needed weren’t available on the WHL site.
Good thoughts on Grubbe – I really have no thoughts on him – just going by what I’ve read and heard since the trade.
While Pederson has a much higher chance to play in the NHL this season than Grubbe (and almost certainly will and Grubbe almost certainly won’t a first year pro), I think its a big aggressive to call Pederson a prospect – I mean, he is turning 26 in a couple of days – he’s really an “AHL vet/tweener” at this point.
Here is hoping he can find a niche in his new org.
Yes, he is not a prospect in the standard sense. But I am using it in the sense that he is not yet an NHL regular, so what he could be is yet to be truly known, he has some promise and therefore it is possible he plays as a regular 4C in this org for a few years….
I’m not an insider or anything but do talk to WHL scouts and they think the Oilers committed theft.
The reports of his character and work ethic are interesting. There’s a common thread in him and other notable prospects: motor.
I know some aren’t in favour of trading a 5th round pick for him, due to “low-ceiling,” but getting someone of his ilk and at his stage of development seems like a win when you compare to what might have been at that stage of the draft.
Long shot to make the show, but I bet he keeps other prospects in the system honest for their efforts. And who knows, maybe this is a bet that cashes… and in this case, would likely be 1-2 years earlier than whomever would/could/might have been chosen by EDM in the 5th round.
The other thing is that Tyler Wright IS drafting forwards with high ceilings in an effort to compensate for the lack of selections. If Matvey Petrov cashes that’s a victory.
Grubbe is a RH center with size and checking ability. Losing Noah Philp meant signing someone and RHC’s who can play in the AHL are expensive. Anyone can make a list and then see what AHL salaries are for the righty centers who are veterans.
Grubbe needs to deliver some offence, more than Chris VandeVelde as an example.
However, if he plays one NHL game that trade is a win, and I believe it is already.
We don’t want players to score too much, but enough. Goals get paid and it’s better to get consistent role players at affordable cap hits
I wonder where Berezkin and Yeseyev might fit in the discussion if there was any visibility in to their path to North America (and if any of us had any chance to see them play, even a little bit)? Where would they fit in the conversation among the likes of Petrov, Kemp, Grubbe, Wanner, etc?
I also think we should mention Jake Chiasson as a prospect likely turning pro. I could see ECHL time in his short term future.
I fully agree about adding more young free agents, and I guess to an extent Hoeffenmayer, Gleason and Dineen can be included as part of the prospect pool now. Some of the CHL grads you’ve mentioned would also be welcome additions though.
What I found pretty surprising is how deep on that 2015 list many of the guys who made it were: Davidson (8th), Bear (9th), Khaira (12th), Jones (13th), Marino (20th), Oesterle (23rd), Pitlick (25th), Hunt (33rd).
Legitimate players do emerge from the depths of every draft and every prospect pool, we just don’t know who they are right now. That’s good news for the Oilers I guess since we know things are thin at the top of the pool.
Not sure where to put them though, it seems to be crowded in Cali atm. I do see that they could be stashed in Ft Wayne, but how good is that for development, I think it is questionable for forwards, but better for goalies and dmen…but that is just my non-stat backed sense of things…
I can think of only a couple of NHL forwards who played in the ECHL and they were both undrafted….
Yeah fair point about there not being a lot of room in Bakersfield, though if the players are worth signing they should have a decent chance of making that team.
And it’s true that not so many NHL forwards have passed through the ECHL, but it’s probably more than you think. Keegan Kolesar played part of his first pro year there. Others include Steven Lorentz, Luke Glendenning, Josh Archibald, Carter Verhaeghe,
Ryan Lomberg, Mason Marchment, Cole Smith, Frederik Gaudreau, Mike Hoffman, Yanni Gourde, Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel, Ryan Reaves, Jansen Harkins.
That’s definitely not an exhaustive list of forwards, and as you say, more defensemen and especially goalies have passed through there.
Apparantly if your last name is Deharnais, the ECHL is the start of the path to the NHL – both Vinny and David spent time.
I see that both you and JP found this article, it’d be an interesting deep dive:
https://www.echl.com/en/news/2023/4/echl-has-34-former-players-19-coaches-on-stanley-cup-rosters
I would take Slepyshev back Tomorrow damn fine heavy hockey player cant win a Cup without these type of players. Look no further than Vegas 4th line that enforced their will on the Jets, Oilers, stars, and Panthers. No way Vegas wins the Cup without that heavy line creating momentum as well as down right smartly bullying the opposition.
Yeah, agree he could be a nice addition to the bottom 6. Recall that Holland offered him a contract to return to North America a few years back but he decided so he could remain in Russia.
https://oilersnation.com/news/anton-slepyshev-declines-oilers-offer-re-signs-in-khl
We’ve never had much luck with Russians but if we could go back in a Time Machine I would have 6’2” 195 Anatoli Semenov on my 4th line.
If we’re going back in time for Russian former Oilers, I’d order up a 1998 Boris Mironov.
I loved him as well I wonder why a vast majority of D-men today don’t use the hip check it was such a exciting aspect too the game.
I likely Slepyshev – big, could skate, talented, could shoot.
I think the verbal among many Oilers fans on this player was a bit over-stated as, even with all those individual skill, he always seemed to leave me wanting more – just never put it together.
He’s been a good, not great, solid player in the KHL – seems to be starting to decline (stats wise) as he approaches 30.
He does seem to be living his best life a bit – was at Tiesto the other day and he seems to be loving life with his kids back home (per his pictures).