The Edmonton Oilers signed Ryan McLeod yesterday, avoiding arbitration and securing one of the team’s best young players. In Ryan McLeod, the club has a rock solid No. 3 center and a player on the rise. One more player to sign, and at this point running a 21-man roster (as above) seems likely.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The 5 most impressive NHL offseason moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
This is one way to run the roster, I wouldn’t do it this way but you secure four centers and have something to recommend each trio. I think running 21 is less of an issue for Edmonton because there are two impact centers who can slide down the roster, and several wingers (Nuge, Ryan, Holloway) who can run there.
No one is asking, but here’s what I would run and the contract I would sign with Evan Bouchard (two years).
This roster shows $183,000 in cap room. The Bouchard contract could come in lower, but I’ve listed it at $4 million because the club might want to ensure the second year. I have Lavoie on the third line and Holloway at center on the fourth line, but view them as “swing” players ala Broberg and Desharnais on defense. The coach can run the hot hand, and this way Derek Ryan can play the wing. Here’s one more roster to consider.
This edition moves Raphael Lavoie to the farm and replaces him with two forwards, I’ve chosen Colin White and Jesse Puljujarvi. I doubt Puljujarvi would sign back here but it’s my belief he would be a good option and the Oilers aren’t so stubborn on a player (good or bad) to overlook possible value. JP is going to sign somewhere and is extremely likely to deliver more than his next contract. If healthy, I like Puljuarvi’s future more than that of Lavoie, and I like Lavoie quite a bit. We’ll know soon. I think the Oilers will tweak but it’s unlikely a roster player moves now. The die is cast. It’s 21 men.
I believe any version of this roster, with a tweak or two at the deadline, could win the Stanley Cup. It’s the third season in a row I’ve believed this to be true. I hope you enjoy this season, for some reason (seems to me) many of you are caught up in the minutiae of the roster and have lost sight of the big sky. That’s a shame.
A look at the most impressive moves of summer, including an Oilers transaction and (incredibly) one by the Coyotes.
https://theathletic.com/4736138/2023/08/02/nhl-signings-trades-toffoli-hall-brown/
I’m very happy to have Brown on the roster and love the league min cap impact for this season but, personally, I’m not overly-enthused by the contract.
I know, I know, Brown has 12-16 teams interested (per Seravelli) but, for me, he didn’t really “take any less” or incur additional risk to play for the Oilers and with McDavid.
The risk of him playing less than 10 game is so low that, in my opinion, this is a one-year $4MM guarantee deal for Brown. I’m not sure that AAV was available for any term in the market.
I would be “impressed” with the deal if the Hollands were able to build in some real bonus targets.
I mean, sure, give the guy $1.5MM at 10 games played to essentially guarantee him $2.25MM and then give him $750K at 40 games and $1MM for a real production target.
Don’t get me wrong, for sure, that structure may not have been available – Brown may have taken guarantee money elsewhere but THAT Is the type of structure that would have had me agree with the deal being on an “impressive deal list”.
In any event, I’m in Brown’s corner, as I am with all Oilers’ players, and I hope he has a great year and solidifies the top 6 or middle six and is a substantial piece of the cup win!
I hate buyouts and bonus money added to the following year in saying that I’m most excited about Browns ability on the P.K.
If just one of those 12-15 teams offered him anything above something like $3.5 million for even just 2 seasons guaranteed (which it would have to be), then he would be taking a significant financial risk playing for the Oilers. The 10 game risk is not much but at age 29 coming off knee surgery, its not guaranteed (just ask Landeskog). His risks are that he re-injures himself, hasn’t properly recovered, or now sucks at hockey so the Oilers don’t play him (he doesn’t have an NMC so they can send him to the AHL if he is bad).
More importantly, while a 1 year deal offers him the chance to do better in year 2 if he plays really well with the Oilers, it also comes with the real opportunity to get a lot less next season and beyond. He has uncertainty on how he will actually perform on the Oilers, and if he is not performing, he will not be playing with Connor and Leon all that much and maybe not even on the 3rd line. At least if he went to a lesser team, he may have less competition to keep a top 6 spot, vs. the Oilers who may be somewhat patient with him, but won’t wait too long to move him down the line up or off if others players can now do the job better.
And that’s the other beauty of the deal for the Oilers. If Brown truly is hot garbage in camp and/or over the first 8-9 games, they can send him to the minors with no cap consequences this season and maybe none even next season if he never gets his game going well enough in the AHL for a recall. Brown ceded the control over a lot of his near term injury recovery risk to the Oilers for this season.
And with 12-16 teams vying for him, his agent was very likely able to talk a few of them into offers in at that range ($3.5 million+ for 2+ seasons).
Do you actually think there is even an iota of a chance that the Oilers end him down to the AHL after less than 10 games?
That’s not a scenario that’s based in reality at least a little bit.
I understand the nominal risk he took of getting hurt and playing less than 10 games due to injury.
I stand by my opinion.
Its a pure cap deferral structure – saving cap space this season but creating a bit cap hit next season – end stop.
I’d be more impressed if the Hollands were able to get Brown to agree a more “real” bonus structure but that likely wasn’t available – the pull of McDavid and a contending team likely isn’t that strong.
What a depressing take on Brown he chose the Oilers because he believes it’s the right fit. I already have him pencilled in for 5 SH Goals adding to his total of 20 plus.
I hate the contract also. Having around 3 million of dead space next year makes me want to barf. I wonder if Holland has a trick up his sleeve. I’ve asked this before and never got a clear answer. Is it possible to have a team eat that money if Brown is traded before the draft? Something similar to the Kassian trade.
I think you could trade the contract as the Canucks have been trying to move Tyler Myers who is due a $5 million bonus next month.
However teams just wait until the bonus is paid before making a trade.
Any team who acquired Brown would likely need to get a big sweetener since they would have to pay out $3 million cash for UFA who might not sign with them.
I think the hope is some ltir money to soften the blow.
What do you mean?
If the Oilers end up in LTIR and their final cap hit for the season is over the cap, every single dollar of the performance bonus will carry over to next season.
Not ending up in ltir but my understanding is when a player goes on ltir during the season the money saved after a replacement is called up is not counted towards the final cap numbers.
No, that’s not how LTIR works at all. The player that is on LTIR counts against the cap as does any addition to the roster – there is an ability to go over the cap but that does not help the bonus overage situation, it hurts it.
I think he is thinking once the season starts if they have someone like Kane or Hyman go on LTIR for sometime and they get replaced on the roster temporarily with a cheaper player, the Oilers will accrue in season cap dollars during that time. I would think the Oilers would not want any of their $5 million plus players on LTIR for even 30 days, but it could happen. Even Kulak being on LTIR for say 2 months and replaced by Niemo would save -$700,000 in 23/24 cap space all else being equal, to be used at the deadline or to eat into bonus money. Again, the Oilers would rather have Kulak in the line up, but stuff happens.
If the team is over the cap using LTIR reserves, they will not accrue at all.
I think I spent so much time the last few years only looking at LTIR from beginning of season and misremembered how it worked when used in season.
He earns the bonus upon starting in his 10th game. I have no direct knowledge of when it is paid but I doubt it waits until the end of the season and as soon as the Oilers give it to him it is added to next year’s cap as far as I know.
It doesn’t get added to next year’s cap hit right away – it gets added to the Oilers overall cap hit for this coming season and whatever they can’t fit in this season (which will be most, if not all, of it) then gets added to next year – not until season’s end.
I believe the bonus hits the cap of the team the player was on when it vests.
“You can’t always get what you want”.
There goes the hoping we wouldn’t hear the same old, same old, repetitive whining posting about Brown’s bonus again.
At least the Lavoie contract was a distraction for awhile.
Is it too much to ask for now that it’s been posted about a few times, both items, that we are spared the repetition of said posts?
who am I kidding? Expecting a lack of repetition is like expecting a miracle.
Getting Brown to sign a bonus laden contract, no matter the conditions, at league minimum is a boon for this team. 10 games may not seem like a big deal. But, remember Pacioretty came back from serious injury and lasted 5 games. Not the same injury, but knee injuries aren’t a sure thing to recover fully from either.
Imagine, talking about the Brown contract in a post that talks about the Brown contract – oh, the humanity.
Jackson press release from the Oilers.
https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/1687085909962022913?s=46&t=yOjgX7Dc1NV_ZnMv2aFPKQ
Interesting snippet:
“Paul Coffey, who has been with the Oilers as a Special Advisor to Daryl Katz for more than a year and has been integral to bringing Jeff to OEGSE, will also assist Jackson in his new role with the organization.”
Jackson press release from the Oilers.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release-daryl-katz-names-jeff-jackson-oilers-ceo-of-hockey-operations/c-345510072
Poking around the Oilers schedule this year and a couple of things.
1) this looks like the most rational schedule from a travel perspective in a long long time. There’s no BtB’s until Dec 21-22, and the remaining BtB’s are same city or 45 min flights.
2) I count 14 HNIC’s including the first three straight in January.
3) I count five games (Dal, SEA, NYI, NYR and MIN) out of 15 against skill teams through Nov 18 when a trip through Florida starts. Oilers play the Jets twice but with a lot of roster turnover I don’t count them as skilled yet… should be fun tune up games during this time.
Schedule is pretty favorable in the first half this year. April is quite busy but Jan and Feb seem less chaotic than usual. Lots of two day off breaks. March is March but the travel is less hellish by the look of it.
Intriguing…
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1687082042482176000
Ima thinking the Vegas odds are tipping hard for a re-sign of McLeon 😀
Well. That is very interesting.
Oilers hire Jeff Jackson–yes, McDavid’s agent–as CEO of Hockey Operations.
Holland will report to him.
Haha, kinda feel like that was how it worked already.. Now it is just official, I guess.
TO summarize our upcoming resigning geography:
( Player, current AAV, age at expiry, contract status)
2024 offseason
RFA ARB elibigible
Neimalainen, 762,500 25 RFA ARB eligible
Dineen, 750,000 25 RFA ARB eligible
Neither is a regular on the big team or likely to be so by the end of this season, so no leverage and no material risk to adverse Cap impact on a new deal.
UFA
Foegele, 2,750,000 27 UFA
Griffith, 762,500, 31 UFA
Janmark, 1,000,000 31 UFA
Brown, 4,000,000 30 UFA
Pickard, 762,500 31 UFA
Griffith and Pickard are farm depth, and Janmark is a lower end of roster layer in his 30s. No material Cap risk there.
Moderate risk for Foegele, at 27 he is at or near his peak and not likely to demand a scary price increase.
Brown, could be risk if he rebounds well. We may sign him at market value but not for an overpay as is 30 next summer.
RFA’s likely on this year’s roster
Holloway, 925,000 22, RFA
Broberg, 863,333 22 RFA
Desharnais, 762,500 27 RFA
Savoie, 925,000 22 RFA
Holloway and Broberg could see a moderate increase in actual dollar value compared to the Cap, depending on performance.
RFAs not likely on this year’s roster
Lavoie, 874,175 23 RFA
Hoefenmayer, 845,000 25 RFA
Fanti, 883,750 24 RFA
Rodrique, 775,000 23 RFA
Depth pieces and no leverage for inconvenient increases.
As it sits, next offseason is not a major risk vis a vis the Cap.
2025 offseason
RFA ARB eligible
McLeod, 2,100,000 25 RFA ARB eligible
Kemp, 775,000 26 RFA ARB eligible
If he keeps developing, McLeod will see a reasonable raise. Kemp will see a raise if he plays an appreciable amount of minutes on the big club and does well, could he displace Ceci by this time?
UFA
Draisatl, 8,500,000 29 UFA
Caggiula, 775,000 31 UFA
Pederson, 775,000 27 UFA
Ryan, 900,000 38 UFA
Gleason, 775,000 27 UFA
Ceci, 3,250,000 31 UFA
Drai is a must sign. Ceci might be replaceable at that time if his demands are unreasonable for our Cap.Ryan at 38 is likely done, and the rest of this section is lower roster or farm depth at best.
RFA’s
Petrov, 843,333 21 RFA
Tulio, 823,000 22 RFA
Bourgeault, 925,000 22 RFA
Berglund, 925,000 25 RFA
One or more of these these men are in the running to possibly make the big club by this time, but won’t have arbitration rights or enough history on the big club to have much leverage.
Draisatl and Mcleod will likely split the majority of the Cap increase, Ceci might be replaced by then, and I suspect either in the 2024 or 2025 offseason we might look at moving on from Campbell for a 2-2.5m 1B/backup goalie for additional Cap spac, as long as Stu holds the crease and doesn’t implode. Perhaps by that time Rodrique or a similar player is ready to be backup in the Bigs?
Not overly worried overall for the next 2 offseasons and the Cap, but it will bear watching. In Ken (or equivalent) we trust…
Sorry for the wall of text, but when I get a bee in my bonnet, I like to be thorough!
Bouch is likely to be a two year deal I think, so he will come due the same time as Draisatl and McLeod. This is another reason why I think the team is contemplating moving on from Campbell for a cheaper backup if the situation presents itself.
Solid summary. A few small things to add:
1) Desharnais is a UFA, not RFA, in 2024
2) Lavoie could make the team and would have arbitration rights in 2024, so he could be due for a modest raise
3) Neal’s dead cap comes off summer 2025, so that’s added to the pot of available money
Gazzola on the OilStream saying the current rumblings are that the originally assumed management plan of Staios taking over when Holland’s contract is done, May not be the current plan.
Didn’t say if that is because Staios will be moving on to Ottawa or if Holland will be extended or another reason but that’s what he’s saying he’s been told – at this point.
Absent a complete melt down by the team this season, the decision to extend probably in balance rests with Holland. If he decides he will stay longer, they are likely let him carry on.
My original thought was that Bouchard was destined for a one year deal, as he would be the only big ticket due next year with a Cap increase looming and to avoid coming due the same time as either Drai (if he signed a 2 year bridge) or same time as McD (if he signed a 3 year bridge). A 4 yr deal of course was the worst, walking him directly to FA. Now, with the bonus impact of Brown coming due next year, I suspect a 2 or 3 year deal, likely a 2 – depending on how much they expect to have in space for either of those offseasons….
In 2 years time, the Brown bonus, if earned and hitting the 24/25 cap, will be gone, the $1.9 million James Neal Buyout will be gone, and they are forecasting 2 successive cap increases of $4-$5 million, so maybe $9 million. Foegele and Ceci’s contracts also expire by then and both can be traded next season as well if deemed appropriate. Kulak, Kane and Ekholm all have 1 more season left by 2025, though all are tradeable then and both Kulak and Ekholm have no trade protection now. Of course the Oilers hopefully are looking at higher salaries for McLeod, Holloway and Broberg by that time as well, and who knows how Bourgault and the other prospects have bubbled up to play roles at more modest salaries.
All of Ceci, Foegele, Kulak, Kane and Ekholm will need to be replaced at cap hits inflated by the increase. It’s not like their positions are just filled by league minimum deals.
And, as you’ve identified McLeod, Holloway and Broberg SHOULD demand more,
As I mentioned earlier, if the cap rises $10 million, that will likely all be eaten up by Bouchard and a Drai extension.
Ekholm will come at about the same
kulak replaced by Broberg
Ceci could be replaced for cheaper
Foggy replaced by Holloway
Ekholm is likely to be close to done at that point so a second pairing D will be required although Ekholm might sign short term cheap deals if he wants to keep playing. (like Edler)
If Broberg lives up to expectations and his draft pedigree there’s not a chance he will be paid Kulak money but he is an obvious replacement for Ekholm and will want get paid at that point in his career,
Not sure what you think Holloway’s ceiling is, but even if it is only 3rd line winger, it’s quite likely to exceed the cap hit now owing to Foegele. That would be pretty disappointing for a 1st round pick.
It’s difficult to predict how much Ceci’s replacement will cost but if the cap jumps by close to 20% it’s reasonable to assume a 2RD won’t be paid less.
Are you really this bad at math? In 2 years, we have been discussing a $9 million cap ceiling increase. That is about 11% over today. If it were 20 percent the Oilers would have over $18 million of extra cap. If you can’t keep this simple level of math straight, why should we even engage with you?
Lordy, this from the guy who’s been telling us for two years that Tyler Myers will be easy to trade once his signing bonus is paid in the summer.
Kane, Kulak and Ekholm’s expiry is 3 years out, by which time the cap will be about $13M higher than today (if they stick to the max 5% increase). The cap increase plus those deals coming off totals about $33M available to re-sign and replace.
Long term extensions for Draisaitl and Bouchard are should only eat up about 1/3 of that.
Edit: Lol, I wrote this before seeing a real-time reference to Tyler Myers. Perfect
Myers will be easy to trade when his bonus is paid but as it stands the Canucks may hang on to him to the trade deadline since they remain shy on RD.
Yes, you’ve been telling us Myers will be easy to trade for 2 years.
$33M?
3 seasons from now Bouchard, unless he shits the bed, should be making close to $10M as elite #1D will easily get $12-15. They’re already close to $10.
Draisaitl I would think would require around $15M as the rising cap inflates salaries for top end players.
That’s almost half of the increase and, of course, the McDavid contract extension will follow soon thereafter.
Just to amplify.
Cale Makar has one of the best value contracts in the league at $9 million.
Dom has his market value pegged at $17.5 million in the time frame being discussed.
And funny you bring up Makar. His value deal is up the year after the one we’re talking about. He’ll be making what Dom says he’s worth soon enough.
More pressing for Colorado, in the next 2 summers they have all of Toews, Rantanen, Byram and Georgiev expiring.
By your Oiler math Toews (next summer) will command $11-12M, Rantanen north of $13M, Byram close to $10 and Georgiev god knows what. That looks like close to $40M to retain them, and the only other contracts over $1M the Avalanche have coming off the books in the next 2 years are Johansen and Francourz ($6M total).
It looks pretty bleak for Colorado with the cap only rising $8-9M in the same span. And good luck replacing those players for anything in the same ball park of what they were making.
Colorado fans will probably be ruing the Colton, Manson and Girard deals (all at least 3 years to go) sooner than later.
Colorado will indeed have some tough choices to make.
They could trade/walk Toews.
Not sure why you’re obsessed with Colton. $4 million for a third line centre will soon be a bargain.
Manson and Girard are hardly huge stumbling blocks as both are reasonable contracts for the roles they play and those contracts will be even more reasonable as the cap rises.
Even if we accept those generous contract numbers for now, Draisaitl at $15M and Bouchard at close to $10M is only $12M-ish more than they’ll be paid this season. That’s much closer to a third of $33M than half.
So what’s left, Broberg should take over a 2nd pairing role (Ekholm) and Holloway will replace Foegele or Kane depending how much offense arrives. That leaves external replacements for 2RD (Ceci), 3LD (Kulak) and 2W or 3W (depending on whether Holloway or Bourgault prove 2nd line quality).
Does that seem like a daunting task with $21M to work with?
Looks to me like finding an extra $5M for McDavid’s next contract won’t be overly difficult either.
Wait. How did Bouchard go from being a bust because he played in the AHL at 20 to a $10 mil/year dman in the span of a year/year and 1/2?
You must be a pro soccer player, right?
It’s more complicated than it seems.
The cap is expected to rise by $4 million next offseason.
Brown, Broberg and Holloway all have performance bonuses and they could easily surpass the expected cap rise.
And, if Brown plays well, he will be looking for more money.
A two year deal for Bouchard may seem attractive but aligning it with a potential Draisaitl extension is fraught with peril since his raise and a significant one for Bouchard could easily eat up any cap increase.
I always read your posts in the voice Keith Morrison uses for Dateline.
You do realize you have heard me reading the news hundreds of times, right?
Many, many times. But your writing has the doom of Dateline.
Just to be clear, Holland is not perfect, but he is way smarter than you or anyone you cite that is critical of him in regards to managing the cap of an NHL team and it is not even close.
Unless they can get him at $4.1MM for 3 years (which is unlikely as he will likely get within a couple hundred grand of that for 2-years), we are looking at a 2-year deal.
If Broberg and Holloway are hitting their Schedule A bonuses, holy hell, the Oilers are the top contender for the Cup.
Lack of talented depth has affected Oilers in the post seasons, but Im looking at this through a different lens.
Injuries have reduced the effectiveness of our top players, but not taken them out of the game. Leaves me wondering if running a fully healthy Foegele, Holloway, or Broberg would have brought better results than a 70% Kane, 70% Hyman or 60% Nurse.
This year I would like to see the Oilers manage their 21 man roster a little differently. Id like to see a lot of AHL call ups, whether they need them or not. The top 6 can get ice time backed off a little, even rested. They should still have enough talent to thrive. Get these guys up, let them develop, get them familiarized, gain a degree of trust.
And I would like to see the coach completely confident in bumping players up the line up and bring in call ups to fill in if that’s what will allow full injury recovery.
We need to go into playoffs as healthy as possible, and with trusted depth so that injured players are not trying to “tough it out” but in fact are not able to be effective.
Now this is not to suggest the reason they lost to Vegas, but certainly there is clear evidence of underperformance in several positions due to injury. Getting that post season performance to 100% at every position might provide substantial advantage.
One issue: in order to call those AHL players up, they will need to send someone down (unless they have long term injuries and are, once again, in to LTIR).
I thought the oilers were going to win it all last year. Now I REALLY think they’re going to win it all. I really hope Derek Ryan gets to win a cup as an Oiler. I think that would be cool as hell.
gotta upvote this.
Put me down for someone that is against upgrading the 4th line center slot at this point in time.
Its not necessary for regular season success. Try to bank as much space as possible for the deadline to have room to pick up a far superior player than what is available now.
Needs may change. Perhaps Holloway seizes the 4th line center spot for example.
Agreed.
I’d prefer to run the 21-man roster, give Lavoie an NHL shot, accrue cap space, and address depth with a targeted add in February.
I like to see Holloway play above 4th line minutes.
There is a way to have an extra $250,833 in cap space (I suspect nobody is gonna like how) that has a non-zero chance of happening. Keeping Pedersen instead of Holloway ($150,000 difference) and Niemelainen instead of Broberg ($100,833 difference) would net you an additional $250,833. You could even keep Malone instead of Lavoie for an extra $111,625. Then all you have to do is wait for some LTIR room and remake your roster. It could happen and I suspect nobody likes it. Those three moves leave you with 20 players and $4,545,833 to sign Bouchard and potentially leave space for an 22nd player.
I would suspect nobody likes it because it makes the team materially worse, right?
That is 100% correct and you would only do it if say Bouchard came in at 4.5M or if you really needed to keep an extra player like a PTO or you wanted increase our deadline capspace if everyone is healthy. I suspect we’ll see some weird and unpopular moves. I’m not advocating for them but we should be prepared.
It is my understanding that if Broberg and Holloway are not listed on the opening-day roster their full bonus clauses will count against the cap when/if recalled. If they are listed on the opening roster they can be sent down and recalled without bonus clauses affecting the cap this season.
I may be misremembering this, but I believe that the problem of their bonuses counting against the cap only happens when they are called up, if the team starts the season in LTIR to be cap compliant and the ELC players with bonuses are not on the roster on day 1. Maybe someone else knows the specifics on this particular aspect of the CBA.
Correct: that is an LTIR concept as it deals with sending the pool of bonus LTIR reserves (in addition to the salary reserves).
Of course, Broberg and Holloway will be on the team given, well, they are better than Nimeo and Malone.
If the team starts out with LTIR room for a player over 2M, then both Holloway and Broberg could be on the team without accruing money against the cap. My scenario is really only for a healthy team if it’s in a bind like if it really, really wants an upgrade at 4C
In my scenario, you could sign Bouchard at 4M and trade for Nick Dowd without giving up a more expensive roster player or need a salary retention for instance
This year is really go time for Broberg and Holloway. As Godot has been saying, Broberg is right on schedule and now needs to play big minutes. We need to see what role Holloway can play. So moving those guys out of positions to play significant minutes does not help the team later in the season or in future years.
Bouchard could put up 100 points next year if the PP even somewhat resembles last season. The deal had best be for 2 years and then a collective sphincter clench as his next contract makes Nurse the second highest paid D on the team.
We will all summon Roy and be like we’re sorry our sphincter cannot clench with the 2 rings in there.
I wonder if a number starting with 6 gets Bouch long term? Cause if it would I’d be getting after that in a quick hurry.You’d all thank me later
Being capped out on critical signings for the sake of keeping basically replacement level role players is not good strategic management. It’s gonna hurt real bad in a bit. Cost millions extra
Everything you wrote is correct.
The only years that matter are this one and the one after. Everything else has to take care of itself when they get there because they have to go all in this year and next.
One of the reasons poor people have trouble getting out of poverty is because that which is urgent has to supersede that which is the smarter thing to do even when they know what the smarter thing to do is.
This is where the Oilers are at with their cap situation.
I would send Foegele packing in a heartbeat to help that happen.
Why do you figure Sprigings/Sakic/McFarland, whoever’s in charge there, brought in a bunch of high priced 3rd liners instead of doing the same for Byram?
Considering Byram is almost 2 years younger than Bouchard and has concussion issues his 2 year $3.85 million dollar deal seems like a good bet for both sides.
With Makar ahead of him, his PP time will be very limited unlike Bouchard who was just handed the keys to the vault.
The Oilers already made this mistake once when they paid Nurse after a point spree and they may be repeating that mistake.
There are also a couple of centers signed on other teams that could be in play via trade: Nick Dowd and Jake Evans – Stauffer has been talking about Dowd for a bit and I can’t remember where I heard Evans (I did not come up with the name on my own).
Both are a bit over a million and there would need to be money retained in a trade.
I could see either of them making sense. RHC that can play fourth line with an extra year left. The Oilers could make some moves to make that work either internally or through trade.
A logical move would be to trade Lavoie for Evans.
A little cap manipulation would be required although Montreal might retain a bit to get a local Francophone into the lineup.
That would be a massive loss of equity. Maybe for Evans and a 1st, because he’s got a French name
Dowd would be an absolutely perfect addition to the bottom-6. A strong track record of sawing-off or outscoring in a difficult role and he’s a veteran RC with an extra year of term. Imagine if you could get the Caps to retain 50%. I’d be less excited about Evans but he fits with the core better, age-wise.
Dowd and Ryan would be great. Remind me of each other in style, of course Dowd being bigger, but smart understated US players
I do have time for Holloway as the 4C – I mean, he does have real center pedigree – his last season at Wisconsin (his pop season) was as a full time center and he did play a bit of center in Bako last season.
At the same time, I have very little confidence in the coaching staff’s ability to commit to legit minutes for the 4th line and, given Holloway will have all but zero special teams minutes, 8 minutes at 5 on 5 is just not enough.
Unless Woody and his staff can commit to giving the fourth line real minutes, every night, 12 plus, I just don’t think Holloway can play in that role.
Pittsburgh Penguins
@penguins
The Penguins have re-signed forward Drew O’Connor to a two-year contract.
The deal runs through the 2024.25 campaign and carries an average annual value of $925K
CapFriendly
@CapFriendly
·
4h
We currently show the Penguins as being $3,216,842 over the cap.
This isn’t exactly correct because it’s based on a roster of 24 players.
However, all are waiver eligible, none are currently listed as LTIR candidates, and they have 3 NHL goalies.
I think I read that somewhere earlier today. 😎
CapFriendly
@CapFriendly
Anaheim update after signing Troy Terry $7M x 7
Cap Hit: $63.3M
Cap Space: $20.2M
Roster: 20 (13F – 5D – 2G – 1IR)
Are they angling for long term on Zegras & Drysdale as well?
I would expect so.
Locking up your young core early can lay tremendous dividends later.
Yup. Two way street though, as you know. Quite aside from injury which nobody can predict you want to be sure of both character and skill before committing.
That said I expect you are right. Verbeek is looking at the long term.
I think we are almost assured at a 21 player roster.
I mean, there is a path to 22 if Bouch comes in around $3.4MM but I don’t think that’s reasonable on a 2-year deal and the team needs a 2-year deal.
Of note, Stuaffer remains adamant that Bouch will be signed for two years.
Also, I don’t think it makes sense to run right up to the cap just to fit a 22nd player on the roster. I think it makes more sense to run with the 21 players and at lease accrue and bank some cap space. Each and every dollar helps (at the deadlines and, if not, by decreasing bonus overage next season).
I think running with a bit of room makes more sense than trying to fit two league min players as 12F/13F.
Of note, Stauffer has Lavoie in the AHL to start the season and he also has Pederson in the AHL to start the season. He thinks they should bring a few more established guys in on PTOs to fight for 12F.
Stauffer hasn’t had Lavoie in real consideration for opening night all off-season and I’m not sure exactly why – I’m not sure if that’s just Bob’s thoughts or something he gleans from the inside.
Anaheim could use a centre
They just drafted Leo Carlsson second overall.
And Mason McTavish in 2021.
Along with Zegras, they should be stacked
because a player drafted as a high center has never failed to develop into a center right?
looking at you Byfield
Nice contract for MacLeod he deserves it. Now if they sign Bouchard 1x $3.5M. it would be very close, but they could run a 22-man roster with Lavoie & Pederson, 13 forwards, 7 defensemen & 2 goalies.
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Leon-Brown
Foegele-MacLeod-Lavoie
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
Pederson
Ekholm-Boucard
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Desharnais/Broberg
Stew & Soup
What is the benefit to a 22-man roster vs running a 21 man and saving the cap space for deadline moves? With 21 you still have an extra body (likely a D) so can run 11-7 or 12-6 and have at least 1 player to cover for injury or illness. Also, given we’ll no longer be in LTIR, IIRC it should be easier to shuffle players back and forth from the AHL if needed.
Starring down the barrel of a team set to run Coast to Coast this year.
They probably take a stab at the franchise record in points and wins.
If healthy we’re probably talking five >75 point players (McD, Leon, Hyman, Nuge, Bouch) and eight 50 point players (Kane, Brown and McLeod). I think they take a run at 400 goals this year with both Leon and McD hitting 60 each. With a PP running near 40% this season I think you’ll see McDavid take his run at 200 as well.
McD will cross 1,000 career points sometime in early March and it’ll be the fastest 1,000 aside from Wayne and Mario.
This is it folks, its what we’ve all been waiting for. The Decade of Dominance is set.
I also love August.
I’d much rather sign Bouchard for 2 years at apx $3.8MM – $4MM, run 21 players, accrue some cap space to start.
How long do we wait now for Bouchard to sign? Both sides can count so other than one year or two years is there any other sticking point?
It’ll happen by Sunday at the latest. Probably by Friday actually.
How I hope it’s going a fair ways into the season:
McLeod-Leon-Hyman
Kane-McDavid-Brown
Holloway-Hopkins-PTO vet standout
Grab-Bag-Line
This set up also means you can likely grab the best extra scoring winger at the deadline, as they should have done in the spring.
I like that 4th line, especially Bag, he’s good at faceoffs.
I assume this puts Foegele on the grab bag line?
Warren “grab” Foegele.
Traded.
Where? Since I am guessing you don’t want any money back I once again point out that Foegele and his contract do not have a lot of viable destinations this late in the summer. That ship sailed in early June if Holland was so inclined.
There will be a point sometime soon where someone needs him. It can be for a 7th or with a 7th or for a minor leaguer at that point so long as the players I’ve noted are tracking well.
Yeah, I don’t think so.
No McLeod plays centre. Its more important that he learn that position.
He’s young and will need to cover for a potential McLeon injury and Nuge’s slide with father time.
I prefer his skillset on the wing. Still think he might be the missing top 6 piece.
Also greatly prefer Hopkins at C. He needs to play the game with his brain and his skates at this point. His scoring touch is too come-and-go at 5-v-5.
https://twitter.com/ARHockeyStats/status/1686683653059842048?s=20
Radko big scary man, soft heart. I don’t blme him but man NHL players hate the spotlight.
That’s such an odd response from the player.
Why because he’s being truthful. Not every individual is cut from the same cloth some folks crave the spotlight while others enjoy life in beautiful Carolina.
No, because you’d think he’d be a competitor.
Needs to talk to elite athletes about “nerves” and “pressure”.
That’s what the great ones (and most of the good ones) live for.
Let’s use your job as a example is everyone striving to take on all the pressure and benifits working 7 days a week just so they can be considered the best in your field. Is there not people you work with that are happy working 40 hours a week with no flair while still being capable at their jobs. Maybe some men enjoy being a family man first over glory money and fame. As they say To Each Their Own.
He was speaking of pressure, not whether he’s willing to do the work. This is about wanting the ball (or in this case, the puck), with the game on the line on the biggest stage. If he’s happily clip-clopping along…that’s a waste.
And, frankly, in my line of work…yeah just about everyone around me wants the pressure. It’s a big part of why they’re here.
The man’s not going to win a Norris…but if you don’t think lifting a Cup in a Canadian market is worth it…odd thing to put your body through for 30+ years (counting childhood).
Read/watch Jack NIcklaus on his reaction to nerves. That’s the way we all should strive to be at whatever we choose to do.
You can’t have a 22 man Hockey team full of intense players you need a few jokesters to begin with. If everyone is super intense where you work there must be a lot of burnout. Jack Nicklaus was a exception the man never let his guard down played every shot of his career like it was the final hole of the Masters. I won a lot of coin betting Tiger wouldn’t catch Jack in Majors when it looked in the bag a decade plus ago. Tiger had the intensity and drive but couldn’t substain it and who can really blame him for that.
The relentless pressure of the Toronto management, fans and media sent Frank Mahovolich to the hospital on more than one occasion. They were on him despite him being a big part of 4 Stanley Cups. He left after the cup in ‘67 and went on to be a big part of 2 cups in Montreal and played in two Canada Russia series.
Radko Gudas is a depth player from the Czech Republic. There is no upside for him with rabid fans. If he does his job he largely goes unnoticed, but if he plays poorly, they are all over him. Of the 3 cities, Edmonton might have been his best bet, since for some strange reason the Oiler fans base has a soft for the blue collar hard nosed players like Jason Smith, Steve Staios, Ethan Moreau, but turn on real talented players like Jason Arnott and even Paul Coffey.
More interesting (IMO) than his response is that Edmonton extended him and offer.
Would definitely have required some other moves to accommodate.
None of Edmonton, Calgary or Toronto look to me to have had any cap room or reason to sign a guy who eventually took $4M to hide out in southern California to the end of his playing days.
Foegele plus Kulak and Bob’s your Uncle.
That could have worked if Holland had moved them before free agency day. After that I have my doubts.
Presumably the offers from those teams were more in the $2.5M-$3.0M range, but yeah, clearly not a fit for what he wanted.
I suspect this is the case. I can’t see the Oilers having been at or above 3x4M but at $2.5 the money could have worked pretty easily. I also suspect they talked to him before free agency.
What testicle is Treliving going to have to cut off to get under the cap this summer. The left or right? They are by far the furthest team over the cap right now.
With Muzzin and Murray on LTIR, the Leafs are only $2.1 million over the cap with a 22 man roster.
Thats pretty easy to manage.
I believe that dubious honour belongs to Pittsburgh although to be fair they have 24 players on their roster and Toronto 22. Nonetheless Pittsburgh is $3.2M over while Toronto is $2M in the red.
Yeah I was just looking at all the teams trying to see where they’re at (including RFAs and injured players since those aren’t obvious from the summary page).
Toronto and Pittsburgh are the only two who have to make moves to ice a compliant 21-man roster (trade or waive multiple NHL players). Ottawa also has only $895k to re-sign Shane Pinto as their 21st player (and Pinto scored 20-15-35 last season).
Everyone else can (or like the Oilers, appear they’ll be able to) ice a compliant 21-23 man roster without any difficulty.
There’s not a lot of loose change rolling around for sure. Buffalo might be looking to spend. Maybe Detroit.
And by spend I’m talking about teams shopping in the $2M+ aisle. The other teams with money are not looking to make any big moves this summer imo.
Exactly
Timmins and Lafferty would do it and then they run a 21 man roster like us. Of course they want those guys on the team. I’m hoping that Murray has another medical before the season and is cleared to play so that they are really f’d. Given he said he was fine at the end of the season, another 2 months from now may have him in a good place. Enough with these shenanigans.
— Having lost to the eventual Champs the last two years the belief that this has been a Cup Contender is well founded. In this Cap world hard to say any team also in contention got significantly better.
— Played next round of our club match play tourney at our cottage against a NHL player. (He’s much better in hockey than golf). He’s a great guy. They are just wired differently than us. Beat him though (he had to give me a stroke).
— It’s just neat to hear his takes on players : J won’t share but his comments on his knowledge of Oilers player’s interesting.
— Bottom line though is he’d be surprised if McD doesn’t win at least one Cup with the roster. He says (like me) virtually all the great ones win Cups.
— The only Art Ross winnners probably ever not to have were Sedins and I think maybe Jamie Benn (and I put them below the “all-time greats”
— Perry lost Cups in 3 teams but McD next level. There is no precedence for a McD type player never winning Cup. He ought to figure out a way.
Come now you can’t miss the most famous of them all in Marcel Dionne.
Beat out Gretzky on the goals technicality in his rookie year, 6th all-time in NHL scoring.
No Cup.
Other Art Ross winners since the 70’s with no cups. Joe Thornton, Jaromir Iginla, Marcel Dionne and let’s not forget Leon has an Art Ross too. Dionne and Thornton are 6th and 12th all time scoring points and Iginla is 16th all time in goals.
Maybe not all time greats, though Dionne is underrated somewhat in this regard. His career spanned Orr, Lafleur, Bossy/Trottier and Gretzky so winning a cup was an immense challenge for him anyway. Simmer and Taylor were very good but nothing like the talent or depth those others had around them.
Damn it! I was slow and I missed Joe Thornton!
Not meaning to disagree or anything, but I just wanted to check the full list (Art Ross Trophy goes back to the 40’s after all).
The full list of Art Ross winners who did not win (or have not yet won) a Cup is:
Marcel Dionne
Jarome Iginla
Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
—–
Jamie Benn
Connor McDavid
Leon Draisaitl
So 7 names in total, 3 of whom are still active (2 who aren’t in their mid-30s).
Even aside from generational players and all that, it’s quite impressive how few Art Ross winners failed, considering the trophy has been awarded 70 times (though only to 29 different players).
— Yeah that’s the guy I played withs point (without the benefit of looking this up). It would be exceptional if McD didn’t win a Cup.
— Especially given he’s next level compared to the exceptions who didn’t win.
— out another way: he (and Drai) would be by far the best players never to have win a Cup.
— NHL hockey players understand this instinctively I guess from his comment.
— Just like the Cup gets almost invariably to a deserving team based on a few years of success, the Howes beliveaus espos orrs lafleurs Gretz Lemieux jagrs crosby get their cups. It’s just how hockey has worked to date.
— Put another way it’s the exceptions that make it a good rule.
Marcel Dionne. Gilbert Perrault. off the top of my head.
The French connection and the Triple Crown lines two of the best in Hockey history.
Has there been any update regarding Jesse following his surgery? He had double hip surgery so will he be ready for this season?
Not a lot of news out there about his surgery. It was possibly sometime near the end of June, though news on June 29, only said “recently”. Carolina’s season ended May 24th so for sure sometime in June.
Seems he had fairly significant surgery with a metal ball and cup placed in each hip. Not sure if this qualifies as full on hip replacement, but maybe it does. The recover may be 6-10 months. That easily would put him into early January or all the way to near the end of the regular season.
https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/edmonton-oilers/.amp/news/former-oiler-has-intensive-surgery-nhl-future-uncertain
I wish him a full recovery and that he gets to show what he is really capable of if this finally puts behind him the hip problems that have plagued him. If the timeline above is accurate, I doubt he is viable
option for the Oilers in 23/24 though, even if he’d sign here.
“I believe any version of this roster, with a tweak or two at the deadline, could win the Stanley Cup”
I do too, but it would nice this year if we could show evidence of that type of team earlier and more consistently instead of a mad rush at the end of the season to make the playoffs and push for a good spot.
I would love for Jesse to succeed wherever he ends up (including and maybe especially here), but unlocking his potential seems to be a pretty tough nut to crack.
I don’t see JP as a reclamation project who needs to be unlocked. We know what he is at this point in his career and should sign him accordingly (i.e. a third/fourth line forechecking winger). His junior success and draft position predictions are ancient goalposts.
If he finds some confidence and goes off, great. But that shouldn’t be the plan. He has current value to this team if positioned correctly with his existing skill set (hip recovery aside). I like the player.
We all may know what JP is at this point, but has he accepted that? Frustrated/unhappy players aren’t good for a team.
Jesse is a bust (I wanted it to turn out differently) and the Keith trade was bloody brilliant when it happened and is even better today.
These are but two of the Hills I die on.
This season’s roster is much stronger going into the season than last year’s.
This should allow them to finish higher in the standings. Potentially win the division for once. Fingers crossed.
Was Colin White injured? I thought he’d be a much better player at this point. He could be a good gamble for the Oilers.
He has had a number of injuries in his career with the shoulder seemingly keeping him out a fair bit. His career started well enough in Ottawa, but tailed off to the point where Ottaw bought him out in 2022. He played pretty much 4th line minutes in Florida this past season on a $1.2 million show me contract, but his performance, particularly in the playoffs (3gf/12ga), didn’t inspire Florida to resign him.
His production is pedestrian for a 4th line player and he has never killed penalties in his career, so I am not sure he would add much.
He does show a glimpse of being somewhat of a power forward then it vanishes like a fart in the wind.