I’ve written about Dylan Holloway dozens of times and often mentioning comparable (here) player types and what we might see in the future. The good thing about comparables is you get a possible view into the future. The bad thing is you get a possible view into the future. Holloway’s comps are good, and not so good. It depends on your vantage point.
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If I say there were times leading up to last season Holloway’s comparables included Jake DeBrusk, Lawson Crouse, Anthony Cirelli and even Martin Necas, you’d be impressed. If I said AJ Greer was a match? I’m talking offensive numbers not style, but it is interesting that so many of his comps play with an edge.
Holloway at this point projects as a middle-six forward.
He might score 15-15-30 for several years and play a support role on a No. 3 line. However, for the next several seasons he may get time with 97 and or 29 and that could spike his numbers. He’s good, so many touches in the AHL, and I do think he has the ability to exceed contributions by Kailer Yamamoto and Jesse Puljujarvi during their most productive seasons.
I’m currently estimating Holloway’s RE. The idea of reasonable expectations is to find a number that fits the past while projecting the facts (youth, opportunity, and some experience) on to the player’s resume.
I’m estimating 70 games, and some time with the Glimmer Twins and a few minutes over the season on the power play. I’m estimating 9-16-25 for the 2023-24 season. I’ve done RE’s for many years now, and Holloway offers a real challenge. He could play 25 games and get sent down. He could play 82 and win a feature role when injuries hit. This isn’t a player who is going to sneak up on us either.
It might sound strange, but I’ve looked at Holloway from both sides now, from good and bad, and still somehow, it’s his promise that I recall. We really don’t know Dylan Holloway at all.
Fun video.
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I see Holloway as a cross between Hyman and McLeod.
He’s fast and he he can dig.
Big year for him, and he will manage 35 points, but more importantly he will play a safe game from third line and second line.
Maybe early in the season he could and probably should get some time on the 2nd or 3rd line. After additions at the deadline I am hoping to see Holloway as an outstanding 4th liner in the playoffs.
Adam Seaborn
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Some sports radio news expected Monday in Alberta https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f440.svg
Let’s hope this concerns the author of this blog.
Pius Sutter signs for 2 X $1.6MM with Vancouver.
He can certainly provide some goal scoring from the bottom of the lineup but I think the org is looking for a “bigger” player for 4C/12F and, of course, that’s too expensive.
Why do you think size for that role?
The one guy they actually signed so far to complete for 4C is 6’, 190 Lane Pederson.
I figure with the loss of Kostin, all the talk last year about how big and tough they were and the look of the guy they signed so far as a PTO, they would like more size.
We know they would prefer Pederson to be an AHL call-up.
I assume they would like to be bigger and more skilled, but easier said than done.
If they were prioritizing size I’d think they would have signed someone bigger than Pederson as the 4C/1st call up since he is very likely to get significant NHL games.
I guess my opinion is they are looking for good hockey players first, before size, and that they would have been interested in Suter if he were willing to sign in their price range.
I guess that means we’re not going to let Jonathan Toews retire, after all.
Who are the deadline players to watch? My list:
Any others to watch?
Farinacci
E. Karlsson? 😉
Suter signs with Vancouver. 2 yes. 3.2
1.6 cap hit just to be clear.
Holloway should get the Yamamoto treat vs the Benson treatment.
The Oilers have the forward depth – deployed – correctly to triple jump over the, “they only have one line comments”
I would sick with the following line -up for the first 20 games.
Kane-McDavid-Brown – Can play with any line in the NHL
Holloway-Draisaitl-Hyman – Two high motor wingers retrieving pucks
Hopkins-McLeod-Foegele – Shutdown line that can play +18 minutes a night
Janmark -Sutter/Pederson- Ryan – Can play a quality 12 minutes a night and PPK
For me, I switch Hyman and Brown and its a no-brainer:
1) McDavid/Hyman have great numbers together – they should be a pair; and
2) Drai needs the 2-way game of Brown more than McDavid does and Drai with a poor defensive player on his right and non-established player on his left is set up for many goals against.
Tough to put a 104 point producer on the left wing and, no, it wasn’t all on the PP – Nuge was firmly in 1st line scoring last season (something like 54th in 5 on 5 points – firmly top line).
It doesn’t make sense to me how they can be ‘all in’ with Sutter and Pederson as 4C options. They don’t seem to want to use Ryan like that. They are going to play the bags off the usual favs and hope to parachute someone in if Kenny can get creative enough to gain some cap, and hope there is enough gas left in tanks to get through what they expect to be a deeper playoff run
Whereas the better teams try to roll 4 lines and 3 pairs and build a stronger team with everyone contributing and bought in. I prefer this and don’t feel they would suffer changing some guys out for more cap and a deeper bottom 6, or maybe a RS D upgrade
Maybe next season
Oilers now have the luxury of not having to give Holloway the Yamamoto treatment.
He’ll have to work his way up the lineup to earn a $3 million contract.
As it should be.
Yeah, his comps are all over the place, depending what you look at. In terms of NHL it seems the whole range of outcomes remains possible.
This is NHL players who scored within 0.05 points per game (Holloway was 0.18 points/game), within 6 months +/- of Holloway’s age.
Starting pre-Covid (18-19) and going back 10 seasons they were:
Tage Thompson — (18-19) 301 103-94-197
Joel Eriksson-Ek – (17-18) 421 92-114-206
Andrew Copp —– (15-16) 565 91-153-244
-so far so good, but then it takes a turn
Michael Bournival (13-14) 113 12-10-21
Alex Burmistrov — (12-13) 347 37-64-101
Zach Rinaldo —– (11-12) 374 18-24-42
Kyle Clifford —— (11-12) 753 66-78-144
Thomas Vincour – (11-12) 95 7-10-17
Jacob Josefson — (11-12) 315 20-44-64
Dana Tyrell ——- (10-11) 135 7-17-24
Matt Martin ——- (10-11) 898 77-91-168
Lars Eller ——— (10-11) 954 163-208-371
Jamie McGinn — (09-10) 617 117-103-220
So yeah, they cover the whole spectrum from ‘not an NHLer’ to ‘NHL star’. The more recent ones are encouraging, but the list as a whole not so much.
If you look at just the 1st rounders: Thompson, Eriksson-Ek, Burmistrov, Josefson and Eller, it’s a considerably more successful group.
And speaking of recalling his promise, his 2nd NCAA season really showed the promise. A very high end season
I’ve looked at variations on comps for that season before, but will look now using the same ‘within 6 months +/- of Holloway’s age’, and within 0.1 points/game (Holloway scored 1.52 points/game that year).
Looking at the same 10 seasons the complete list is:
Brock Boeser —– (15-16) 398 139-172-311
Johnny Gaudreau (12-13) 682 231-452-683
Reilly Smith ——- (10-11) 764 200-273-473
Obviously a far higher quality list than his NHL comps – 19 year old college seasons like Holloway had are extremely rare. Kyle Connor (1.87 p/game) is the only 19 year-old who was excluded because his point/game was too high.
Following it forward, Boeser and Gaudreau had very successful NHL rookie seasons at age 21 (compared to Holloway’s 51 3-6-9), while Smith had a very Holloway-like rookie season (37 3-6-9) before a strong season at 22 (82 20-31-51).
Anyway, back to where we started, no, we really don’t know Holloway at all yet.
So you are saying that we will be reduced to watching him play in order to figure out what he is? 😎
Fortunately or unfortunately, yes.
One month to training camp? Something like that. We should be hearing about informal skating sessions in the next two weeks or so.
Yeah, it won’t be long. Though I suspect we’ll have to wait a bit longer than that to have an answer on Holloway’s offense. 🙂
Just think if Tippett still had Bouchard locked up at Motel 6 we might not of seen his growth the last 6 months into a Larry Murphy type.
Nice finds. Although those were Gaudreau and Smith’s 2nd NCAA seasons, they were their Draft+2 seasons. But as mentioned, going by age, at the start of their big seasons, Boeser was 18yrs-7mos, Holloway was 19 yrs-0mos, Gaudreau was 19yrs-2mos, and Smith was 19yrs-6mos.
Also, if we look at Tage Thompson, being patient gets a lot easier as he didn’t really click until his draft+6 season. They were both fall birthdays so were old for their draft years. Holloway is about to go into his draft+4 season, so he’s got a couple more years before he passes Thompson’s deadline.
I still have faith that Holloway will figure things out at the NHL level. his progress has been hampered by injury and Covid, so it short-changes him a bit when looking at his numbers. If we go back pre-injuries and pre-covid and look at his draft+1 season in NCAA (1.53PPG), it was very impressive and put him in the same category as the NCAA Draft+1 seasons of Jonathan Toews (1.35PPG), Dylan Larkin (1.35), Kyle Connor (1.87), Jaden Schwartz (1.57) – one of his closest comparisons, Chris Higgins (1.46), Colin Wilson (1.28), and Alex Newhook (1.24). His numbers were better than Toews, but I highly doubt we have the next Toews. His Numbers weren’t as good as Connors who had an amazing draft+1 season. I’m still hoping for the upper end and will be pleased with the lower end. His size, speed, north-south style, and 2-way play are also good comparisons to many of these players.
Of course he can still figure things out at the NHL level, he’s 21 (although turning 22 during camp), there is still real runway.
You aren’t wrong with the injuries playing a big fact to this point – the hand/thumb thing took away a year of development and that injury during his first game back in the AHL last year took away more (and he needed real AHL games).
LT,
I love it when you incorporate a Joni quote!
… and I don’t mean Pitkanen:)
For now, Holloway needs to be a good soldier. Learn all three forward positions. Get on the PK, get good on faceoffs, do all the little things without the puck, be solid defensively. I believe he will be moved around the bottom six until they find a combo that fits, be that with MacLeod & Foegele, or Janmark & Ryan. He will persevere and be a useful NHLer once he gains his confidence. I don’t see him playing in the top six, unless there are multiple injuries, Same goes for Lavoie if he is fortunate enough to stick around and I hope he does.
Foegele is likely penciled in as the first “top 6 fill-in” and that is on merit. In fact, given his play last season, there is a valid argument that he should be right with Brown competing for 6F to start the season.
With that said, while I agree that Holloway starts in the bottom six, and is likely there for a while getting comfortable, etc., I could see him pressing up
Don’t see Foegele playing top six. It’s Hyman & Brown as right wingers, Kane & Nuge as left wingers and three guesses who the centers are.
Pretty straight forward.
I agree that’s how it will be to start and that it is straightforward (although I do think the Brown and Foegele should be “competing for 6F” but I don’t see it).
Of course, I don’t anticipate that Kane, Nuge, Hyman and Brown will play 328 regular season games this season….
I think it’s actually spelled ‘Holloway Rooooaaaaahhhoooaahhhoohhd”
On Oilers Now yesterday Stauffer was talking about Holloway and Broberg needing to get traction this year.
He projected that Holloway could be a 15-20 goal 45 point guy a few years down the road.
Its seems like LTs current/future projection may be somewhat in line with this but I’m thinking that some (many) are projecting Holloway to be that productive player this season and with a higher top 6 production ceiling going forward.
Does the fanbase, or portions thereof, have unrealistic current and future projections for this player?
I personally think that he COULD get 15-20 goals and 45 points this season. Of course, that would mean some legit top 6 time (so, either Brown isn’t that guy or this in an injury) as he’s unlikely to see much real PP time.
You have Jarvis, Lundell, Mercer all picked in the same area code as Holloway. Why are these players thriving and not Holloway could it be opportunity. So far Holloway has recieved nothing but mostly ass wipe minutes except for the first shift of the year. They couldn’t even give him a Playoff game .
Injury has played a role here. Makes it more difficult to project when you’re hurt a lot. It’s really go time for Holloway. He should be highly motivated knowing this could be a career defining season.
Holloway got moved up to the top 6 about 4-5 times last season.
A developing prospect can’t continue to make the same mistakes over and over and earn the trust of his coach and continued minutes.
Of course he didn’t get a playoff game – through 50 plus NHL games he earned himself an AHL stint, then got hurt and came back late in the season.
3/4 of the Goals in the N.H.L are scored off of mistakes Holloway is not special in this regard. The kid looked nervous and like you said scared to make a mistake, this is no way to play, this is not his style. If I’m the Coach I play him to his strengths which is motoring around being free.
Jake Virtanen comes to mind.
Jake had the talent to be a power forward he’s not the first guy to flush his N.H.L career away. He’s still playing Hockey and making a living it beats working your ass off in extreme weather as a Rodbuster for $85,000 grand a year
Very similar trajectories.
Mid first round pick.
6’01” 210
6’1” 205
67GP AHL
45GP AHL
First 2 seasons NHL
65GP 7G 7A 14P
51GP 3G 6A 9P
Both big, very good skaters, glaring defensive errors.
Holloway had to deal with injury but like Virtanen, doesn’t look like a top 6 forward at this point.
I would think both teams would like a do over on those picks.
Holloway’s nickname on the Junior team was I believe Hound dog he was relentless on the fore-check as well as flying around. Woody is coaching this out of him because he made a couple of mistakes. Woody is fearing for his job just like Tippett was
The last two sentences do not seem based in reality at all.
If you don’t believe coaches fear losing one of the best jobs in the world go ask Babcock about it.
If you think that Woody believes his job is in jeopardy given, you know, the Oilers have the 2nd best record in the NHL since he took over and played among the most playoff series in the last two years….
How many Cups? He was out Coached by Vegas and nearly once by Flattop. You need to adapt in the Playoffs a best ever PP might win u a series or two but it won’t win you four. Why didn’t he go with Campbell everyone without blinders on could see Skinner was tired and Campbell fresh and in the zone.
Hound Dog – No, actually on the Canadian WJC team he was called “the Golden Retriever”
This is a ludicrous comparison, these players have little similarity in style, history or NHL deployment.
The vets make mistakes, thus the bad GA totals. They choose them even if they arent as talented. Talk about stubborn
This line of thinking is probably going to cost them Bouch in a couple of years because they let him become too pricey already overpaying Nurse
Unless they get Ek on a team friendly. They’ll want to keep him. But when Connor and Leon re up things will be tight
Unless they get really lucky with the cap going up a lot. Or the new GM is way different
You build for the Palyoffs get everyone involved take some heat off of Connor and Leon. Every coach since Flat-top, Hitchcock, Tippett and now Woody love burning the shit out of Leon and Connor from the 1st game to the 82nd game. That’s why we never score late in games when we’re down by one Leon and Connor are gassed. Oilers became a powerhouse back in the day with 4 good Centres. Sather had Mike Krushelnyski 43 Goals as a 3rd line Centre the Rat Linesman 33 Goals before that how about Stan the man Weir 33 Goals When is Woody going to be a man and staple RNH as his 3rd line Centre give him 2 good wingers ice time and Bob’s your Uncle.
The Oilers were 4th on the league in come from behind wins last season. FWIW.
How many times did they score with the Goalie pulled the last 3 years they should be well ahead of the league average and I just know they’re not because Connor and Leon are burnt out same goes with OT lately. When’s the last time we tied up a Playoff game late then won in OT?
If you’re talking last 3 years, they’ve only scored 10 with the goalie pulled, tied for 27th in the league. They are also 32nd in TOI with the goalie pulled though.
If they’re getting the come from behind wins without pulling the goalie (which they are) then I’m not sure lack of scoring with the goalie pulled is an issue.
How many of those were to tie it up? I’ll say half of 10 came when they were down by 2 and the opposition was playing soft.
McDavid’s TOI/G in the last 10 games was down about 3 minutes from his season average and Leon over 2 minutes.
Krushelnyski spent most of that 43 goal season on Gretzky’s wing, not 3rd line center.
https://www.nytimes.com/1985/05/31/sports/oilers-fly-with-krushelnyski-at-wing.html
Linseman played most of the 33 goal campaign with Messier and Anderson.
Stan Weir was the 2nd line center with the Oilers in 79/80 mostly between Hunter and Lumley when he scored the 33 goals. Anderson wasn’t on the team yet, and Messier played LW on the 3rd line.
So your memory is 0/3.
Exactly that’s my point Linesman and Krushelnyski could score on the wing yet Sather had them as 3rd line Centres to win the Cup. I threw in Stan Weir because nobody fuks with Ponoko finest. My point is you can give RNH the gravy points on the wing are you can win Cups. Not many teams have won a Cup without a dedicated 3rd Centre. I never missed a game either live on T.V or my favourite radio telecast by Rod Phillips for the first 8 years they were in the league.
MacTavish was also a pretty good 3rd line Centre if you didn’t know that already .
Holloway got multiple chances up the lineup through the year and continued to make the same type of mistakes. I don’t think he looked nervous at all and scared to make a mistake, he continued to make risky plays that could lead to adverse results, and they did, and he would get moved back down the lineup.
I presume he will be better this coming season – he’ll make mistakes but hopefully won’t continue to repeat mistakes in short order.
We need someone to hit it be it Holloway Bourgault, Petrov in the next few years are it’s time for Wright to sail on back to Detroit. Obviously I’ll give Wright the Schaefer credit if he pans out in Music City.
The Athletic: The 5 best pro hockey players not in the NHL
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Love Lindsey Puckingham.
I am sure not all realize the influence and effect lindsay had on fleetwood mac…( the only prob I have is that holiday road ear worm running thru my head endlessly)
Now I have Chevy Chase eyeballing Christie Brinkley in her Ferrari in the movie Vacation with this song in the background running through my head.
https://youtu.be/IbL3NfWJUQs
Well I’m stealing that. 🙂
Please do!