45 RPM

by Lowetide

There are (by my count) 45 men who will arrive in Edmonton to play for the Oilers or in Bakersfield, California. The list includes 20 locks for opening night, although injuries could cull that herd in a quick hurry. There’s also a pile of distant bells. In actual fact, there are maybe 30 men who have some kind of chance to make the team.

THE ATHLETIC!

This is the ‘uncertain Oilers’ group. I think each of them could play in the NHL this season. I also believe the forwards save Brad Malone and Seth Griffith could make the team. It’s a little more complicated for Markus Niemelainen and Calvin Pickard, who would need an injury.

The ‘reasonable expectations‘ for 2023-24 is up at The Athletic this morning, and it shows some areas of opportunity. I think Olivier Rodrigue, Phil Kemp and Xavier Bourgault all have a chance to push up the depth chart and spend time with the Oilers in 2023-24.

Do you remember Vincent Desharnais’ spike? I spoke to head coach Jay Woodcroft summer 2022 and asked him about the young blue (Bouchard, Broberg, Niemelainen, Samorukov) while omitting Desharnais. Woodcroft made a point of including him, and Desharnais played 36 games with the big club in 2022-23.

It took him 122 AHL games and 26 years on planet earth to make it.

Raphael Lavoie is younger, but has 136 AHL games on his resume and turns 23 a month from now. I spent the last month looking at the roster from every possible angle. Until the Sam Gagner PTO I had Lavoie playing a full season in Edmonton. Now? It’s in the RE article, and I do think Lavoie will make the team and hang around.

It’s vital for all of Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Evan Bouchard to push for higher ground. It isn’t vital for Lavoie to do so, Edmonton has Gagner, Lane Pederson, James Hamblin and Drake Caggiula. If Lavoie can push past that group, and with due respect this isn’t a murderer’s row, the “young NHL players who are establishing themselves in the league while on inexpensive contracts” category of the roster will receive a big and badly needed boost. Put another way, his potential is so far beyond his competition for a roster spot the Oilers should have a very long look at him in this year’s camp.

If he doesn’t make it, and is traded or waived and lost, it isn’t the end of the world. However, Broberg and Holloway need new contracts next summer. Everyone talks about the increased cap but that means all 32 teams have more money. Edmonton needs kids who can play. Signing Sam Gagner’s every fall isn’t a winning solution.

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Harpers Hair

NHL writers with their pre-season Super 16 predictions.

https://www.nhl.com/news/super-16-nhl-power-rankings-august-31/c-345702262

Harpers Hair

comment image
Elliotte Friedman

Unfortunately, another injury-related retirement, as Carl Hagelin announces the end of his career: 713 games and a two-time Stanley Cup champion

Harpers Hair
€√¥£€^$

Does anyone know what time players are scrimmaging at the community rink? I’ll be in town over the next few days and I would love to be able watch some of that.

In the Fall of 1986 I was a wide-eyed 1st year Phys Ed student at the U of A in my first few weeks in the “big city” and I’d normally eat lunch by myself in the Butterdome bleachers. One day I wandered down to the Clare Drake arena to eat my lunch and many HoF Oilers, including #99, were practicing to prepare for TC. Doug Wilson was also there, which surprised me, along with a handful of other non-Oiler NHLers.

There weren’t more than a dozen others watching in the stands, so I felt extremely privileged and it was waaay up there on my awesome experience list at that point in my mostly rural teenaged life.

If I were able watching this, this/next week would bring back a lot of those memories. It’d be nice to be able to recapture some of that 😀.

OriginalPouzar

The “informal captain skates”, which are becoming more formal, are starting next week. I don’t presume they are open to the general public but can’t be sure.

€√¥£€^$

I am aware of next week, I will also swing by tomorrow and take a peek at around 9:30 and linger for an hour. Will try to provide info.

Buddy

I used to work at RATT in those days. Some of the players came up for beers a few times after those skates, although I never chanced to be there when they did.

€√¥£€^$

Very cool!

OriginalPouzar

I don’t understand the recycling of coaching personnel in the hockey world.

Look, I don’t really know much about Bill Peters, but I do know that at least his NHL coaching experience has been less than high end (lack of success with Carolina and Calgary) and, given the foregoing, with the “reputational risk” that comes with him, why would any WHL team hire this guy?

I mean, I understand Babcock – there was/is reputational risk there but at least he has very high end credentials. Does Bill Peters have the type of coaching credentials that should “supersede” the negatives from his past.

Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t a “Bill Peters should be blackballed” type of post. Mistakes get made and they shouldn’t necessarily crater a person’s career but, at the same time, if I’m making decisions for the Lethbridge Hurricanes, is the “juice worth the squeeze” with Bill Peters? Are there not other candidates just as worthy that don’t come with baggage?

I just don’t understand the thought process.

Justthestatsman

I agree completely. If this was 1980, maybe…but it’s not. I wonder what the list of potential candidates looked like.

Side

Because hockey, in a lot of ways, is stuck in the past when it comes to hiring decisions. When you have NHL teams dragging old timey coaches like Darryl Sutter out of retirement to coach an NHL team, grabbing a former NHL head coach for your WHL team probably feels like a steal. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Sutter was on the top of the Lethbridge Hurricane’s list of candidates.

“Threatening the Flames players during a game with having to practice at Winsport if they don’t play better may not have worked, but it may work with our players since Lethbridge is a lot further way from Winsport than the Saddledome is!”

Reja

Experience does and should matter. Hockey is a business why would a organization hire unqualified people. How about anybody 50 or over in your line of work is Chopped and shown to the door by 2 steroid monkey security guards.

Shaun VanAllen's mom

There’s also the players’ experience of the coach that is pretty relevant. And that experience, for some, was horrific on Peters’ prior teams. Hockey is a business and so relies on the good will of the public. Based on that, it’s not hard to think hiring Peters was a questionable decision.

Side

If you are going to use the “hockey is a business” line, then it’s important to remember that in a business, results often matter the most. When you hire based on experience, you get Darryl Sutter.

Woodcroft is 47 years old – would you prefer Babcock, Peters, Sutter, MacTavish, Hitchcock over Woodcroft because they are older and have experience?

You are also only presenting 2 possibilities which are the Lethbridge Hurricanes either hire someone totally unqualified or hire Bill Peters.

We live in Canada, surely there are qualified coaches who could fill the position.

As OP mentions, Peters isn’t a superstar coach or anything. And how long do you think Peters will commit to staying in Lethbridge to coach the Lethbridge Hurricanes anyway?

Reja

Ok let’s say your the Boss are you going to hire someone you know and more importantly trust you won’t get undermined are worse. I personally would take my chances with a colleague I’ve known for years over some Kid walking down the street with a hat that reads Head Coach.

Reja

I remember this excellent 3rd line Centre who used to be our G.M. Craig went right out of the so called box and hired this fresh innovated (The Swarm) teacher of kids. How did that pan out for Craig he had 1 shot and blew it on a snake salesman. You reap what you sow Craig.

OriginalPouzar

I guess the Oilers should have moved on from Ryan McLeod and gone with Sutter and Gagner as 3C and 4C – I mean, they have all this experience and have had success in the league – experience over inexperience at all costs….

Reja

You can’t just keep double and triple shifting Connor and Leon in close games during the regular season by the time they hit the playoffs and go through a round or two their Burnt out. Either play McLeod give him the experience leading up to Playoffs let him form a bond with his wingers. If that doesn’t work turn RNH into a 3rd line Centre or find someone that can do the Job.

defmn

The thing about hardasses – and I point to Sutter as an example – is that they often do have success in the short term when taking over teams/companies that have been under performing.

Giving them term is what seems to take the shine off. Most of us here knew the day Sutter was announced as HC in Calgary that three years was his maximum shelf life in that job.

Reja

Exactly! Sutter did fill the Arena and there was no lack of conversation surrounding him.

Victoria Oil

I can see some owners wanting to hire a hardass, but there is no excuse for hiring a racist.

OmJo

I don’t understand the recycling of coaching personnel in the hockey world.

There are very few legitimately bad coaches and managers in the NHL. By bad, I mean bad at the job. Coaches in particular are usually the first scapegoat when a team starts to struggle (or is built poorly) and I would argue that 9/10 times when they get fired it is in part due to the players more than his coaching ability (or lack thereof).

As for Peters, he is from Alberta, has ties to Lethbridge (coached for U of L in the past), and has actually been quite success at coaching junior and minor league teams throughout his career. He also coached Calgary to their second best season ever just a few years ago. Regardless of the other stuff he was involved in, his coaching ability is evident from his past accomplishments.

Reja

I know nothing of how the Flames Soap Opera scenario went down behind closed doors but I’ll bet all the tea in China that Peters didn’t resign without being financially compensated. As for his Coaching abilities and his ties to the Community that should not get in the way of OP narrative since the weekend is fast approaching.

unca miltie

i have known the Peters family outside of hockey for over 20 years. My experiences with Bill and his parents have always been positive. I for one am happy to see him get the position and will cheer for his success both on an off the ice.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Bill Peters is a bully who taunted a kid with racial slurs and then punted him from his team when he pushed back.

It took him until last week, working through an NHL Head Coach (FLEX) to even attempt to offer an apology to the kid he taunted.

https://twitter.com/Dreamer_Aliu78/status/1696909924536664476

Bill Peters is a pathetic bully, there is no remorse and he’ll zero in on a kid again in no time. The Lethbridge Hurricanes are embarrassing themselves and should fire this POS immediately.

Harpers Hair

Some big changes coming to the World Hockey Championships.

@GMillerTSN
The new rules:
• A team will remain shorthanded even if the opposing team score a goal.
• A minor penalty will be served even if a goal is scored while a delayed penalty is pending.
• If a shorthanded team scores, the minor penalty against will end.

Harpers Hair

These rule changes get a test drive in the Champions League.

https://twitter.com/IIHFHockey/status/1696860754115166601?s=20

defmn

Seems a bit of a cheap trick to increase scoring, no?

Harpers Hair

I’ve always thought teams should have to serve out the full time of a minor penalty even if scored upon.

The move to end a minor if a short handed goal is scored kind of balances things a bit and could lead to more chance taking.

defmn

I guess it could also cut down on hacking and whacking if you were faced with the possibility of giving up 2 or more goals on a minor penalty against a team with a potent PP.

My original reaction was that they could increase goals by just calling the penalties that deserve to be called but I have been waiting 65 years for that to happen.

Harpers Hair

Well..this is international hockey where penalties tend to be called in a more liberal fashion.

You would have to expect the Oilers would be eager to see these rules adopted in the NHL.

OmJo

Up until the late 1950’s, penalized teams would play the entire 2 minutes shorthanded in the NHL, too.

defmn

I don’t remember that but, then again, I am not sure what was served for dinner last night so . . .

LMHF#1

Why must the morons meddle?

OriginalPouzar

Woody was a guest on Drew Ramanda’s show (the Green Zone) a couple of days.

Nothing earth shattering but a nice 15 minute listen. Woody talks about his off-season process, what its like to coach superstars, if there is a difference in approach to coaching the superstars vs. the rest.

Of note, Woody has been back in Edmonton for a few weeks now.

Yegfoundation

Thanks Coopsie.

knighttown

In our 2022 exit it was clear that the Draisaitl and Nurse injuries combined with facing a team that was simply “better” was too much to overcome. Last year it felt like a 50/50 series with coaching and goaltending going against us.

If I could pick one item that keeps me up at night it’s the open question as to what the heck happened to Ryan Nugent Hopkins in last year’s playoffs. You could see Hyman was broken and we found out about Kane and Foegele’s injuries after the playoffs. Nurse and Ceci got exposed during the Vegas series; probably a Ceci injury and being exploited in man-to-man (poor coaching). As good as McDavid was, I maintain he did not play to the overworldly level (after the Doughty hit) he did starting in Game 6 vs the Kings the year before. That may have been the highest level I’ve seen anyone play in my life.

But 100+ points guy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins literally turned into a pumpkin. He put up a goal and an assist at even strength in 12 games and got skewered for a GF% of 27%. And he wasn’t running bad luck. His shots/60; 9th among forwards. Shot attempts/60; 9th again and half that of Warren Foegele. Corsi % 13th. SA/60 3rd worst among forwards.

What was this?

Because if this is a sign that our 3rd best player can’t even handle the ultimate elite minutes; playoff intensity combined with only playing terrific teams and coaching designed to pinpoint your flaws; we’ve got a potential Stanley Cup costing issue on our hands.

Melman

Although there was no post-playoff injury attributed to RNH, during the playoffs it sure looked like he had an arm, shoulder, neck something going on because he basically stopped shooting after game 3 against LA even when he had clear lanes until the last couple games against VGK. When he did shoot it was more muffin than normal and his snap shot that scored well during the season seemed gone. Maybe it was not a full-fledged injury, but it sure looked like something was up.

theWaxCollector

Dropoffs in production aren’t always due to a physical ailment, but sometimes a mental one. If I remember Nuge had recently gotten married and had a child of late. I’m single, but I’m guessing personal life stress got him out of his groove.

OriginalPouzar

100% agree with personal/off-ice stressors often contributing to on-ice performance but Nuge was married back in 2019 and his child wasn’t born until last week…….

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Look at the playoff WOWYs.

RNH struggled when he played 2C/ 2LW with Bjugstad at C.

IMO RNH’s struggled were largely a result of poor deployment especially in the Vegas series. He cannot drive the second line. This is known.

Scungilli Slushy

I really wonder why they thought the long fading Bjug was the answer. And stuck with it despite results. The Guide and Record Book showed he scored some goals?

I am considering trying to get AI to make a GIF of a cartoon Woody in an old timey 1700’s captains uniform, nose plugged with hand, going down with the ship, blowing bubbles

Because I can’t make one

AsiaOil

We simply can’t start our playoff run in March and face goon squads in R1. This is 2 years in a row that many of our best players were physically unable to play their best. We want a playoff position iced by March 1 and a wild card in R1 so we can be in a position to play our best in the 2nd and subsequent rounds. No more f-ing around before Christmas this year. Hit the ice ready to go in game 1 of the regular season use the last 10 games to prepare for the real show instead of squeezing into the playoffs and chasing individual awards.

OriginalPouzar

Truth be told, McDavid and Drai had their minutes cut to below 20 minutes per game in the last 10 games of last season. 19:42 and 18:58 (134th and a 141st in TOI/G in the last 10 games).

Reja

The reason there’s so much chatter about Lavoie besides being waiver eligibility is that our farm team is pathetic. If we have a few injuries then what. Holland will be on the phone with his adopted son Stevie. Holland will be trading more picks for cheap Journeyman Chaisson types to fill the hole on the big club because the Farm Team is barren.

defmn

No problem Reja,

I am sure Holland still has Hass, Nygard, Archibald, Perrson, Jurco, Manning, Granlund and Patrick Russell on speed dial from his first year here as GM. (Just a quick reminder of how far behind we were not that long ago.)

I listed depth as my biggest concern for this team over a month ago and got no response other than a bunch of red numbers. All of a sudden it seems that it is be getting noticed that its ‘everybody into the pool’ but not much else available time.

It’s the way it is when you have to play catch up from years of meandering. There is enough talent on this team to survive injuries and still make the playoffs. The trick is to get there healthy.

Harpers Hair

I wrote a longer post yesterday on the issue of depth but it vaporized and I won’t repeat the exercise..

However, in brief, it dealt with how important Vegas’ 4th line was to the cup win.

Vegas targeted 6’4” 200 plus skater RHC Nicolas Roy and picked him up for an aging, expensive winger AND got back a 4th round pick. Roy was close to .5PPG in the playoffs.

Then, recognizing the need for truculence, they traded a pittance for 6’2” 216 Keegan Kolesar who managed to slow down Mattias Ekholm with a big hit, took out a goaltender and, in the final, broke Matthew Tkachuk’s sternum rendering him DNF.

The third member of that line, William Carrier, scored at a 25 goal pace in the regular season. He was one of the original misfits.

Those arguing that bottom 6 depth doesn’t matter couldn’t be more wrong,

Reja

It’s a copycat league shifting back to heavy bottom 6 players with moxie and enough skill to keep the opposition honest.

Scungilli Slushy

I dream of having a GM like MacC

That he traded Fleury – fan favourite, teammates loved him – because sane Lenner was better, speaks of what a team should do

Friends can hang in summer. The NHL is a high paid job all round that is about putting the best players on the ice. Period

OriginalPouzar

Holland traded Tyson Barrie, a fan-favorite for some, hugely loved by teamates because Bouchard was ready to step in to the role……

defmn

I think teams can get away with a weaker 4th line during the regular season because there are lots of teams that you really only need two lines to beat most nights.

The playoffs are a completely different animal where the weakest link is targeted game after game. Holland has time to fix it but not much money.

Harpers Hair

While that’s true to a point, it does not account for injury during the regular season.

For example the Knights depth at centre, provides meaningful cover for injury should that occur.

William Karlsson can easily move up to the top 6 if needed and I have no doubt Nic Roy could thrive as 3C.

In addition to that they also employ Brett Howden and Paul Cotter who can and have played centre in the NHL.

Harpers Hair

It’s also worth noting, Dallas seems to be following a similar template with their offseason acquisitions.

3rd line – Marchment-Duchene-Seguin
4th line – Craig Smith-Faksa-Dellandrea.

While not adding the truculence of Kolesar, they did focus on shoring up their bottom 6 as opposed to tinkering with the top 6 perhaps aware that will happen generically with further progression from Wyatt Johnson and potential adds of Logan Stankhoven and Mavrik Bourque.

Reja

They don’t trust McLeod as a 3rd line Centre and they double shift McDavid or Leon on the 4th in a close game. This is your depth in arguably I use this term loosely the most important position? Sather always had the 4 Centre positions covered. Sather trusted grunt players like Mark Lamb to chew minutes and square off.

Harpers Hair

Yep.

TOI certainly shows that.

McLeod averaged 14:11 in the regular seasom

Vegas’ 3rd line centre William Karlsson averaged 17:28 while 4th line centre Roy averaged 16:18.

No wonder the Oilers run out of gas in the playoffs.

Reja

Go down the list two-way 3rd line Centres win Cups.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Chances are they’ll be dressing 11-7 most nights, so the fringe forward battle doesn’t really amount to much. I’m just hoping for 97 and 29 to be on their own lines. This is the best depth we’ve had on the wings in exactly forever. Stacking the big dogs was born out of necessity, but there’s so many options on wing now, Woody has no excuse not to run 2 great lines in the top 6. A minute and 30 seconds at the start of every PP is enough time for the bromance. And for the love of Pete (not Chiarelli), please play the third line more consistently.

MushedPeas

Don’t know what it is with me and mornings and alternate realities. This one is particularly unhelpful.

Can’t help thinking that with Katz banking a pre-cap team, the Oilers centre depth would be answered through free agency (maybe draft), and McDrai would be long established as a pair chasing Gretzky-Kurri totals. Y’know, how Detroit used to do on D and wing (and once on goal).

Monster team. Cups by bushel.

League economics ended the 80s dynasty too early, and has limited options for ownership to correct (throw money at) managent mistakes holding back a golden era anchored by the wonder duo.

As we say in EDM: Oh well.

Redbird62

In terms of the chances that Woody goes with 11-7 most nights, it is possible with this year’s roster he leans that way more often if people believe he has less forward depth available to him than last year.

Woody generally does not go 11-7 based on strategy, it is more a function of injuries and available players. Last regular season, Woody went with 12-6 47 times (57%) and 11-7 35 times (43%). However, the Oilers did have a number of injuries on forward last season. McDavid and Nuge were the only 2 forwards to play all 82 games. Leon only missed 2 games, and Hyman missed 3. Kane missed 41 games. Yamamoto missed 24 games. Just looking at the typical top 6, there were 16 games where where both Yamamoto and Kane were unavailable, and 35 other games where one of Kane or Yamamoto was not available. McLeod (the 6th or 7th most important forward on the team) also missed 25 games, but I haven’t examined what the overlap was with the Kane and Yamamoto injuries.

In the playoffs, Woody did go with 11-7 8 out of the 12 games, but this was more likely due to Janmark’s two injuries. In game 1 of the playoffs with all players available, he went 12-6. Janmark gets hurt and Woody switches to 11-7. There were 2 games that Broberg and Janmark played in the same game, making it 11-7. Game 1 of the Vegas series was the only game with all players available that Woody chose 11-7, with Ryan sitting, then Janmark getting hurt again in that game. When Janmark was healthy again, Broberg sat, but then filled in for Nurse after he got the 1 game suspension. In game 6, with everyone available, he went 12-6. With Janmark hurt, the only other forwards that would have been considered to get to 12-6 would have been Devin Shore or Dylan Holloway. I can understand why Woody at that time would lean 11-7.

The Oilers go into the season expecting/hoping that Broberg takes the step forward to be at least a solid 5/6 dman or even higher very early. He won’t develop as quickly if he is splitting ice time with Desharnais. And once Broberg shows he can be at least that, I would think Woody would prefer to have one of the forwards in the mix for the 12th forward in the line up most night instead of Desharnais getting 3-5 minutes a night maybe killing penalties. Short term injuries to forwards will result in the 11-7 configuration because of the cap situation, but if a regular forward ends up on LTIR, I can see Woody wanting to go 12-6 a lot of nights.

godot10

Going 11-7 most nights would be a mistake. The forwards were all banged up by the playoffs. The OIlers need more forwards contributing to contend. They have to commit to playing Holloway and Lavoie.

And they have to commit to playing Broberg. And play him with Nurse.

The Oilers have to cut down McDavid’s, Draisaitl’s, and Nurse’s ice time by a couple of minutes each. Less is more.

Woodcroft wouldn’t play the critical path young guys in February or March, and as a result missed it by that much…it being the Stanley Cup. So he better play them in October and November.

Scungilli Slushy

It’s hard to tell how much is the young players and how much is institutional stubbornness. Or how much is the GM not getting the balance the coach wants – such as the right vet cover for the rookies

As in the team likes Des and wants to have the Kulak luxury, where some GMs might swap that around so the higher ceiling Bro can play and get enough depth for injury cover. Right now Bro likely only plays much if someone gets hurt. Even if he’s miles better than an incumbent, their pattern says they still won’t use him a lot, as Kenny frets about getting him TOI in pressers

YYCOil

19 players have to contribute each night to get start of the playoffs, with the correct load management on our core 12 players.

OriginalPouzar

You could be right but I sure hope they aren’t dressing 7D but for the odd exception.

I want Broberg playing at least 14 minutes a night, ever night, night after night after night.

I like Vinny and he will get lots of games as the first injury fill in but I have him in the press box and Broberg in the lineup – nightly.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I agree with all of this.

OriginalPouzar

I agree with the 20 roster locks (subject to long term injury changing things).

I agree that 12F is a battle among Gagner, Sutter, Pederson and Lavoie.

With the injuries/health issues of Gagner and Sutter and Pederson being a career tweener, one has to think that Lavoie is in pole position even though he is not a center option.

Sutter has the “prime skill set” – big body, right shot center who excells on the PK and on faceoffs. Sutter is also the least likely to be able to play in the NHL considering he was barely hanging on at 32 before missing 2 full seasons with health reasons.

Gagner is the clear NHL player among the group given but, at the same time, doesn’t really fill the role needed at all (no size, not a great PK guy, not a center, no term upside) and double hip surgery at 34 with and rehabbing all summer as opposed to hockey training isn’t ideal.

If Lavoie can’t win this job, well, that’s on Ralph Lavoie (I hope it wouldn’t be on the coaching staff defaulting to a vet).

If he doesn’t make it, and is traded or waived and lost, it isn’t the end of the world. 

Agreed – if he doesn’t make it, we have a 23 year old, former 2nd round pick, with zero NHL games, coming off a good, but not great (for his age) AHL season that is once again cut from the NHL in favor of a tweener or end of career guy.

COME ON RALPH!

cowboy bill

Don’t you mean, COME ON RAPHAEL!! There’s no Ralph on the roster.

cowboy bill

Those 20 players look like formidable opening night line up. My list of uncertain Oilers would consist of 7 players, Cagiulla, Pedersen, Lavoie, Gagner, Sutter, Niemelainen & Pickard. One, possibly , two uncertain Oilers are going to be in the opening night line up. These seven men will be pumped to do so and whoever doesn’t make it will be the next men up.

OriginalPouzar

Hi have Cagiulla as a distant bell as I have him a tier below Pederson and the others competing for 12F.

I also have Nimeo and Pickard as distant bells as I think they have all but no chance of being on the opening night roster unless there are injuries.