Genius of Love

by Lowetide

The Oilers offseason summer 2023 is like the line from Tom Tom Club’s Genius of Love: There’s no beginning and there is no end, Time isn’t present in that dimension.

Who is the first player off the island? Let’s say the Oilers land a $800,000 player in the middle of preseason (Nick Bonino) and have to offload someone? Who. is. it?

THE ATHLETIC!

WHO’S GONNA GO?

There are 22 men and the roster is $516,000 over. Where do you cut? It comes down to Raphael Lavoie, Derek Ryan, Mattias Janmark or Dylan Holloway.

Derek Ryan makes the team unless he’s hurt or got slower over the summer. I think he’s integral to the bottom-six forwards. His five-on-five scoring (1.32 pts-60) and outscoring (56 percent) are more than enough to get him on to the roster. Future NHL coach, possibly. He did fade offensively after January 1 (1.09 pts-60) but his goal share spiked to 61 percent. Fine PK man, utility for days. He’s on the roster.

Raphael Lavoie is a first-shot scorer in a helluva good league (AHL) and you can’t just overlook it. He was No. 30 in the AHL among regular forwards in goals-per-game, and most of the men ahead of him were grizzled veterans. Only Nikita Alexandrov, Jakob Pelletier, Adam Beckman and Samuel Fagemo posted better numbers while also being the same age or younger than Lavoie. I believe he makes the team. You can’t walk a goal scorer.

Dylan Holloway will make the team, in fact he could be on a feature line if Evander Kane or Connor Brown get hurt. Hollway’s splits show he is headed in a good direction.

  • October through December 31: .87 pts-60 and 38 percent goal share five-on-five
  • January 1 through end of year: 1.73 pts-60 and 69 percent goal share five-on-five

Holloway can play center or wing and I do think he’ll be part of a line with Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele for much of the season. If that line can stay healthy and no one is needed to move up due to injuries or slumps, the Oilers should have more depth than a year ago.

Mattias Janmark is a grizzled veteran who was sent down one year ago because of the cap. Here are his numbers for the year across most categories and where he ranked among Edmonton’s regulars.

  • Games: 66 (No. 7)
  • Goals: 10 (No. 10)
  • Points: 25 (No. 7)
  • Five-on-five goals-60: 0.37 (No. 14)
  • Five-on-five points-60: 1.40 (No. 11)
  • Five-on-five goal share: 50 percent (No. 12)
  • Five-on-five goals-60 after Jan 1: 0.36 (No. 14)
  • Five-on-five points-60 after Jan 1: 1.45 (No. 14)
  • Five-on-five goal share after Jan 1: 53 percent (No. 14)
  • PK TOI-per-game: 1:56 (No. 1)
  • PK SA-60: 65.06 (No. 9)
  • PK GA-60: 7.49 (No. 5)
  • PK X-GA-60: 8.71 (No. 7)

Janmark shows best in goals and points (boxcars), five-on-five points per 60, PK time-on-ice and PK goals-against 60. Is that enough to keep him on the roster? I suspect it will be.

There’s $283,000 in walking around money available. I don’t think they have room for Lane Pederson without moving one of Brett Kulak or Warren Foegele. I think the Oilers are damn close to set.

Samwise may impact the roster.

The top PK forwards a year ago were Janmark (1:56); Nuge (1:52); McLeod (1:36); Yamamoto (1:27); McDavid (1:16); Derek Ryan (1:13); Kane (49 seconds); Leon (40 seconds); Hyman (35 seconds) and Foegele (32 seconds). Connor Brown can kill penalties, so could possibly take the Yamamoto minutes. Oilers seem well covered if they need to send down a penalty killer for cap purposes.

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Harpers Hair

Vintage Oilers
@VintageOilers

Happy Birthday Dave Lumley
@lummer20
scores into the open net, the Stanley Cup is ours for the first time
#LetsGoOilers

https://twitter.com/VintageOilers/status/1697633884090114469?s=20

(click for video)

Harpers Hair

Bruce McCurdy
@BruceMcCurdy
·
2h
Dead f’n centre

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

If the Oilers want a strong 4th line just run:

Kane McD Hyman
Holloway Drai Brown
Janmark RNH Foegele
Lavoie McLeod Ryan

godot10

Kane McDavid Hyman
Holloway Draisaitl Brown
Foegele McLeod Ryan
Janmark Nugent-Hopkins Lavoie

Fixed it for you. Four lines, like Vegas. Play four lines. Nugent-Hopkins accumulates lots of time on the PP and PK. Each young forward with two vets.

Harpers Hair

As I’ve mentioned in the past few days, all the big boys in the WC have been recognizing that forward depth is the key to winning in the playoffs.

Vegas of course leads the way but Colorado and Dallas spent this offseason shoring up their bottom 6.

Dallas is going to be running a third line of Marchment-Duchene- Seguin and a fourth line of Craig Smith-Radek Faksa-Ty Dellandrea.

Colorado acquired two bottom 6 centres,

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure Woodcroft would be able to commit to real minutes for any fourth line which is the main reason that I don’t think Holloway should center the 4th line.

Similar for McLeod, while he will get PK minutes, I don’t think there will be enough minutes for his as 4C.

Not to mention, I think McLeod is earning his place as the 3C on this team and should be afforded some higher leverage minutes and I think Foegele should be on his wing as they were forming a very good duo as last year went on.

Also, Nuge was 52nd in the NHL in 5 on 5 points for forwards last year – clearly 1st line production – hard to put that player on the 3rd line after this past season.

godot10

What is wrong with having Nugent-Hopkins dominate matchups in softer minutes? Kostin was killing it with Nugent-Hopkins and Janmark. Lavoie has similar skills.

The Oilers need more forwards contributing, more lines contributing.

Rely more on the system and depth and mismatches during the regular season. Gain confidence that the team can win games winning as a team.

godot10

Draisaitl did a lot of damage with Taylor Hall in his defacto rookie season. Do you know who is a lot like Taylor Hall.

OmJo

I think Foegele is a bit underappreciated by the fanbase, and often overlooked (along with Kulak). Watching him and McLeod in the playoffs was a joy, and I can’t wait to see them continue to build on their chemistry.

Victoria Oil

I like Foegele and Kulak as do a lot of Oiler fans. The issue is that they (along with perhaps Ceci) are the most logical pieces to move if the Oilers need to create some cao space to bring in somebody who is capable of moving the needle.

The NHL is a salary cap efficiency contest and the question is are Kulak and Foegele part of the optimal solution or not at $2.75 mln each.

defmn

This.

It is all about the cap and the Oilers need for more of it. Nothing against Foegele or Kulak.

The top six is cap heavy because it had to be built out with free agents. Everything proceeds from that.

Redbird62

My take on your efficiency question: Brett Kulak compared reasonably over the last few seasons with Zack Whitecloud of Vegas on Naturalstattrick and Vegas won the cup with Whitecloud on their 3rd pair earning the exact same salary. Warren Foegele also compares reasonably well with Nicolas Roy at 5 on 5 in the same manner. Roy is getting paid $3 million per season by Vegas for a similar role except Roy gets a fair amount of PP time and, despite that, got 2 more points on the season last year in a similar number of games.

I believe the biggest inefficiencies in the Oiler’s cap last season (besides dead cap) were Campbell, Puljujarvi and Yamamoto performing well below their cap hits for most of the season. All three had performed at the cap they were paid last year in the preceding season. We didn’t know about Puljujarvi’s hip issues but we were certainly aware of Yamamoto’s injuries over the first half of the season.

On the other side of the coin, Adin Hill played well above his cap in the playoffs, and Vegas got the bonus of getting to include Barbashev as well as carrying 3 to 4 goalies for the last month of the season and then into the playoffs because of the deadline to end of season injury loophole. They never used Quick in the playoffs but who knows how they would have managed their goalies at the deadline if Stone’s salary wasn’t on LTIR.

Scungilli Slushy

The cap distribution is similar ‘except’ the Kniggets are paying 775k for their backup and us 5M, the Oiler UFAs aren’t changing much capwise. The age and term are an issue

Bad signings are one thing, being unwilling, not aware, or unable to correct hamstrings a team

Harpers Hair

Since both the Vegas and Oilers rosters are pretty much locked in this year, looking ahead to next offseason offers some insight into cap efficiency.

Vegas shows about $16.7 million in cap space with a 16 man roster with Marchessault and Martinez coming off their cap and given the Knights predilection to punt older players it’s likely they will be replaced with younger options.

They have zero dead cap and zero pending performance bonuses.

Harpers Hair

The Oilers show $12.3 million in cap space with a 15 man roster with Foegele, Janmark and Brown coming off the roster with all their older players locked in.

However, they have potential performance bonuses for Brown, Holloway and Broberg to account for and of course they still have $1.9 million in dead cap space allotted to James Neal so it’s possible the total available cap space could only be around $6 -$7 million and if they want to retain Brown, I would imagine he would come in at at least $4 million.

Doesnt leave much to replace Foegele and/or Janmark.

Ryan

There was chatter somewhere about at least one gm in the league not being happy about the Stone situation.

Reja

Holland has done his job he’s stabilized the franchise and has people believing we are a serious Cup contender. In saying that Holland walked into a ideal situation with the player personal and assets left from the previous administration. If Holland can’t get it done in year 5 how will he be judged especially after leaving the cupboards bare and a couple of cap hits for the next man up. No way he leaves the Brown hit for his Son. I’m going to swing back and say Keith is finally going to get a shot.

Redbird62

Who is GM’ing the Oilers next year had no impact on Holland’s decision to use the over 35 bonus offer to get Brown on this year’s roster. He’d have done it regardless of who will be GM next season, including himself, which isn’t out of the question.

And the’ ideal” team he took over at the end of 2018/19 finished in 25th place, and was closer to 30th place in points than they were to a playoff spot. That team also had Milan Lucic, a severely diminished from injury Sekera on a big contract, a hobbled top left D in Klefbom, Mikko Koskinen freshly signed to a 3 year deal, almost no cap room and a team that free agents seemed to avoid.

And its funny to see you post about the quality of the assets he was left, which included Yamamoto and Puljujarvi, 2 of the most recent first round picks at the time.

Reja

Why didn’t he parlay Jesse and Yamo if he has such vision. What about the Broberg pick he’s looking less and less like Pronger everyday. He’s been Ok as a Oil G.M but he’s no Sather 5 Cups 6 final appearances are even Lowe who was 1 game away. It’s a little harder to stack a team when there’s a Cap you need cheap Labour through drafting like the Blackhawks model that is if you want to win multiple Cups.

OriginalPouzar

I think the org is very happy with Keith Gretzky being the GM of the Condors and he lives down in Bakersfield full time during the season.

I suspect the next GM of the Oilers in an external hire.

DieHard

Great analysis on our 4th line. Good question if we sign a 4C during camp. Who gets voted off the island. I think Ryan would sale thru waivers. Would probably lose Lavoie or Yanmark. Then having Ryan as first call-up for LTIR or emergency would be nice.

who

Haven’t been following the blog that closely, but reviewing the last few days posts about Hollands performance really got me thinking about the circle of life and the Edmonton Oilers.

Whether you think Hollands performance has been good, fair or bad, I think everyone would agree he’s been a significant improvement over Chiarelli.

So who was responsible for Chiarelli? Was that a Bob Nicholson decision? And was that decision influenced by outside interests?

As I remember, the verbal around the Chiarelli and TMac hirings was that Connor Mcdavids advisors were putting pressure on the Oilers to hire an experienced GM and coach, and that the Oilers new braintrust was given the mandate to fast track the rebuild process.

So did the Oilers just hire Jeff Jackson to clean up a mess he indirectly created 8 years ago?

Buddy

Given the speed with which it happened, there are only two plausible possibilities: the call to “lose the hillbillies” came either from McDavid’s agent or from the league. Same rationale either way: “we’re not thrilled about this, but we’ll accept it, with one condition…”

That said, I can’t imagine anyone forced them to hire Chiarelli without the slightest due diligence.

”He’s got a cup. He knows what it takes to win.”

The spirit of the Old Boys’ Club was still in charge even if they no longer were.

defmn

Good to see you posting lately.

Buddy

Thanks. Tarkus’s Nietzsche reference yesterday inspired me. Wanted to post something about MacTavish ripping Harvey’s Flaming soul out again and again, da capo to all eternity, just didn’t get to it in time.

Harpers Hair

There was considerable speculation that Bettman was involved.

defmn

Derek Ryan makes the team unless he’s hurt or got slower over the summer. He did fade offensively after January 1 (1.09 pts-60) but his goal share spiked to 61 percent. Fine PK man, utility for days. He’s on the roster.

=====================

Ryan turns 37 at the end of December. He is undersized by NHL standards. I would be happier if he was the 13th forward on the team slotted in for 45-50 games but, of course, there is no money for a 13th forward.

judgedrude

What if Ryan’s body is truly fading. SamG is said to replicate Ryan. Maybe that is the point.

Redbird62

At camp last year, many thought Ryan had diminished to being a tweener who would be that 13th forward for 22/23. He played 80 games and was a valuable member of the bottom 6 and one of the PK forwards. His performance was as good as most full time 4th liners in the league.

He is a cerebral player and that aspect only gets better with experience. Maybe this is the season he drops below the line of full time player, but we don’t know that yet.

And the starting line up is not cast in stone yet anyway. Certainly cap hits and waiver eligibility place limits on what the team can do at the end of camp, but we just need to look at the end of last year’s camp to see that even the team’s expectation adjust based on performance.

Going into camp, Janmark and Broberg were both projected to be in starting line up at the end of camp by both outside pundits and by the team itself. Both had underwhelming camps for one reason or another and ended up in Bakersfield on day one of the season.

If Woodcroft does not believe that Ryan can contribute consistently more to winning than 12 other forwards (or on some nights 11) he has or can be made available to him, he is unlikely to be in or stay in the line up.

defmn

Yes, that is all true.

I just chose to focus on the limits that the cap places on options. There were choices made in June regarding a couple of roster spots that could have been moved but weren’t that would have allowed more flexibility in free agency and the waiver wire.

They were judgment calls to go with what Holland obviously saw as the stronger – and known – lineup out of camp rather than cap flexibility.

Maybe that was the right choice, maybe depth/flexibility would have been.

I don’t claim to know at this point which was the better bet but I would have chosen the depth/flexibility option myself. The season will give us the answers as always.

Redbird62

I understand preferring flexibility if you hold the view that Foegele is not close to full value at $2.75 million. If you trade him out (and if you believe he is well short of full value, you may lose assets to move him or retain salary), you now have to replace him and Ryan with two players who at best earn ~$1.3 million each or average that between them (Foegele off the team/Ryan moved down the chart).

I suspect the Oilers don’t believe that Foegele could have been replaced either in trade or in free agency at salary in the $1.0-1.5 range without a substantial reduction in expected performance. As others have pointed out, over the last half of the season, Foegele scored 21 5 on 5 points in 39 games. That was good for 52nd among forwards in the NHL in their teams last 41 games. Sure probably the best stretch of his career at least production wise, but it is his most recent half season. Kostin and Bjugstad, as examples, both just signed for the $2 million range, and I wouldn’t have expected either to have done more for the Oilers next season than what Foegele will.

I also believe the Oilers view Kulak is decent value at his contract cost and his quality of player is also not readily available at a significant cap savings. I also think they are entering the season with the expectation that Broberg can play his offside at least at a quality 3rd pair level and will replace Desharnais. Kulak has also played RD at times, so maybe the pairing works better with Broberg left and Kulak right as an option as well. They also believe that Bouchard will be an improved player and that a healthy Ceci can return to the form he had with the Oilers and Pittsburgh in 21-23. Ceci is a stretch to be a top pair minute munching d against the other teams best, but he is a solid 2nd pair RD when he is fully healthy.

defmn

Yup. I think that pretty well nails what they are thinking. And if the injury gods are kind it is not a bad plan.

My concern is the contingency plan when there are injuries as well as that they are taking a chance on messing up a highly drafted young dman moving him to his offside rather than finding a way to reshuffle the defence in the off season. Not saying that was an easy thing to do. Saying it was something that is preferable to what we are looking at today.

And Foegele may have the best year of his career or he may look like he did his first year in Edmonton. Nobody knows. We just know that there were only a few possible moves that the team could make and they chose to not make any.

Ryan

They also believe that Bouchard will be an improved player and that a healthy Ceci can return to the form he had with the Oilers and Pittsburgh in 21-23.

That’s an interesting tidbit on Ceci. Where did you hear that the Oilers believe that he can return to form?

Redbird62

It is also referenced by DNB in his detailed article on Ceci:

https://theathletic.com/4572797/2023/06/02/oilers-cody-ceci-trade-roster/?amp=1

OriginalPouzar

There’s $283,000 in walking around money available. I don’t think they have room for Lane Pederson without moving one of Brett Kulak or Warren Foegele. I think the Oilers are damn close to set.

Subject to injury the roster has been set for quite a while now.

The 7D are locked and 11F are locked.

Janmark and Ryan are locked, along with Holloway, at least to start the season.

Its Lavoie, Pederson, Sutter and Gagner fighting for the 12F spot – there is room for one of them – end stop.

Sure, they could bring in the likes of a ZAR or a Comtois or even a Gregor who can compete for that 12F.

End of the day, there is one roster spot open, the 12F and they actually have room for that player to be up to apx $1.1MM (would accrue less cap space daily of course).

OriginalPouzar

Well, yes, I mistyped – the roster is set but for that 21st player/12F.

innercitysmytty

LT, I like the more positive bent in this article. Due to pushback from posters seeing negativity in recent articles? I didn’t really view them that way myself. They were even-keel and logical as always!

till_horcoff_is_coach

The team has been relatively healthy the last couple of years. I think LTIR and luck of the timing of different injuries will dictate the decisions more than any preconceived thoughts going into the season.

The only key IMO is for the team to start strong enough to allow the team to not be reactive to injuries, but instead proactive to building a complete roster come season’s end while playing cap gymnastics.

Offside

Playoff injuries notwithstanding?

Silver Streak

Is it even possible to have 2 RW rookies…..If Bourgault has a strong camp as I expect he will, I see BOTH he and Lavoie making the club with Foegle moved with a small $$ retention…adding to our daily cap accrual for that big pick up come playoffs and more importantly giving our kids a real shot at the big club.

innercitysmytty

Given Holland’s MO and how close we are to a cup, I don’t see this happening. However, I have a hard time seeing him here beyond this year with Brown’s overage impacting next year. The problem is they will then lose him for nothing or a very late pick if someone badly wants exclusive signing rights. It’s possible he gets moved at the deadline I guess, if they need to shore up RD or someone else pops. Injuries will impact too, so I do think Bourgault may get in some games, just not likely to start the season on the club.

OriginalPouzar

I expect Bourgault to have a strong camp. I expect he’ll 100% be starting the year in Bakersfield

PennersPancakes

I really like what Foegel brings and he was moving at the end of the season. 28 points with 0 pp time in 67 games is pretty impressive. Is this the real Foegel or is 21-22 the real player?

At 5v5 hes got good possession and outscoring numbers it would be a shame to try to get rid of him but if it allows you to play a full roster and possibly be in a better position for injuries/burn out is it worth it selling “high”?

OriginalPouzar

Foegele struggled early in the season (he was hurt early and then was very inconsistant in the early part of the season – even healthy scratched a few games) but he ended up with a sneaky good year.

I believe 6th in 5 on 5 goals and 5th via rate.

He’s proven to be a solid top 6 fill in with Drai for short stretches and is forming good chemistry with McLeod on a line that looks like it should be able to take on more tough comp minutes.

That due (with Ryan) had some dominant possession games in the playoffs, even if they weren’t able to cash very much.

Lets also not forget he had a bad wrist from February through the rest of the season (off-season MRI to determine if they needed surgery).

Yes, the $2.75M is high and if Holloway and Lavoie both show real progression, there may be some “redundancy” there – although I call it depth – so he might be moved but I think he’s going to have a big season in a contract year.

DieHard

I’d try to sign him to a 3 or 4 year contract in the low 2’s

OriginalPouzar

Ya, maybe but I’m not sure at this point.

Its always a risk to sign an aging middle of the roster guy for term but, then again, that is also how some real value could be grabbed.

At the same time, middle of the roster LW is where this team has some real depth of prospects with the likes of Holloway and Lavoie potentially making impacts over the next few years and there is a decent slew of potential middle of the roster wingers peculating (Bourgault, Tulio……. Petrov, Savoie, etc.).

I’m not sure that is place to lock in a that cap hit when there could be ELC value coming.

DieHard

Good points but no guarantee those prospects make it or are traded out for immediate cup pursuit. Even if they pop Foegele can be easily traded. Foegele can play any wing on any line. I like his speed. He’s a keeper in my books.

Reja

I like Foegele as much as the next fan but for heaven sakes can we actually pump and dump 1 player in Hollands reign. We could actually get a asset back as well as salary this isn’t rocket science don’t fall in love with the bottom batting order.

OriginalPouzar

Most teams gearing up for a long playoff run are not trading good roster players off their lineup.

I’m not sure why this response was to me, I’m not the one suggesting we re-sign the player for 3-4 years, I’m the line suggesting we wait to see how the internal replacements progress.

SoCaloil

I truly hope he rebounds and has an exceptional year.

but if you’re going to answer the Q honestly, with cap considerations and implications the to the underlying question must be “Soup”

Gibson wants out of ANA. There’s that too

innercitysmytty

Yeah he’s the best choice for cap relief and minimal impact to team’s potential success. I still don’t think that happens until he’s given one more full year, unless he’s so bad that he’s unplayable even as a backup.

OriginalPouzar

If Campbell is as poor as last season then the assets out it would require to move him in season would be prohibitive, right?

If that is the case, which I doubt but we don’t know, its likely an off-season buyout.

OriginalPouzar

Is Giboson any better than Campbell? I’m not sure he was any better last season. I know “team matters” but he was just as poor and has been regressing for years.

Darth Tu

No thank you to Gibson. The money involved makes a Campbell move a dollar in dollar out situation. If we’re moving Campbell it has to be to free up cap space too.

Darth Tu

Montreal hockey sites have been blasting out the odd article about Lavoie being traded to the Habs over the course of the summer. If they want him that bad, surely there’s a way to package up Campbell and make an Allen or DeSmith swap part of the deal.

No idea what their cap space is like, but screw it. Make it happen and we gain cap space, and get at least an even option in goal.

I’d love to see Lavoie succeed here, but the extra money available to us and a steady hand in goal along side Skinner would be an upgrade overall.

I realise this will never happen as the Lavoie to Habs chat is completely wishful thinking on their part.

Harpers Hair

Montreal has about $5.7 million left on their LTIR cap space and could accommodate Campbell with DeSmith coming back.

However, they would likely want more than just Lavoie in return for swallowing Campbell’s cap hit.

SoCaloil

My point was that if soup was voted off the island, there’s no internal replacement.

Your mileage may vary on this name or that. but he’d need to be replaced, and the easiest way to replace him would be to do it with someone not happy with their current situation.

Let’s say you’re “in season” – that’s a tough time to trade for a G
Now for Gibson
Both of their contracts expire at the same time, and cap delta is 1.4Mill.
In season, it’s prorated, so it’s less.
You could make the dollars work.

Darth Tu

Weeeeeeeelll. They do keep posting about getting Bourgault for a second as well which I find very amusing. Throw him in and they send Edmonton DeSmith with 50% retained, and they eat all of Campbell’s cap hit and I think we have a deal.

😀

cowboy bill

Who is the first player off the island? That’s a tough call. It’s too early to really know. We don’t yet know where the youngsters are at just yet. Depending on that, who knows they could push some of the veterans out of a job, namely Kulak, Ceci, Foegele. I like Foegele on this team but he’s UFA at seasons end, so I would have to say he could be the most vulnerable. if say Lavoie & Holloway spike in a big way. Same with Broberg, Desharnais & Niemeliainen they might make Kulak redundant, and if Ceci doesn’t bounce back his job could be in jeopardy. There’s also no telling what they have in Pederson, Sutter & Gagner either, or Ryan for that matter. My crystal ball is murky. But it may very well be a vet.

jp

I was surprised to see that Janmark was 7th in overall and 5v5 TOI/game last season as well.

I don’t think he’s going anywhere, and agree the roster is damn close to set.

cowboy bill

Damn close for sure. It’s not who is first off the island? It’s who’s the 4th line center going to be.

innercitysmytty

It really is. Injuries (knock on wood) may be the only thing that alters this lineup.

Shamus23

Would like to see Lavoie get a shot for sure.

OriginalPouzar

Little doubt he’ll get a shot. Holland even said earlier in the summer he’s going to get quite a few exhibition games.

Its up to him to perform.

If he can’t beat out Sutter/Gagner/Pederson for a clear open forward spot…..