These are some notes from the 2011 preseason on various Oilers roster players and hopefuls. I wanted to highlight the verbal on Jeff Petry (above) to make a point. At the 2011 preseason, Petry had 35 NHL games under his belt and there was talk he might make the team. As you see above, that wasn’t my opinion and as it turned out he played 73 games in 2011-12 and emerged as a big part of the defense. Now, a question: Who among the current Oilers can we say is “a key player for the Edmonton Oilers, beginning this fall” with fewer than 50 NHL games experience?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Evander Kane, Connor Brown and the Oilers’ aging skill wingers
- Lowetide: Making the early call on the Edmonton Oilers’ 2019 NHL Draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers 2023-24 complete reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from new scouting director Richard Pracey?
- Lowetide: How will Tyler Wright’s time with the Oilers be remembered?
- Lowetide: Is trading Philip Broberg in the Oilers’ future?
- Lowetide: Unpacking Oilers’ decision to hire Rick Pracey, part ways with Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: 9 bold Edmonton Oilers predictions for 2023-24
- Lowetide: The NHL offseason’s 5 most risky moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: USHL has produced some of NHL’s top talent. Is it hockey’s best junior league?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
THE NEXT JEFF PETRY
The obvious candidates are Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. Both have played more than 35 games, but the similarities are obvious. I have both men playing a full season and scoring 3 and 8 goals respectively (here) and it’s reasonable to expect both of them to succeed based on draft pedigree, current resume, lack of alternatives and cap comfort. We don’t know if Holloway will score and we don’t know if Broberg will play top-four blue, but this is the top of the department of youth.
Raphael Lavoie heads the next group, he’s done everything he can in the AHL and now it’s time to see if he can deliver in the NHL. I think his foot speed is fine, he moves his feet all the time now (he didn’t upon arrival in the AHL) and uses his big body effectively. He’ll stay in the NHL if he can beat goalies clean with his release and I believe he can. NHL teams are always looking for goal scorers, Lavoie is one.
There are other names, like Markus Niemelainen who often gets overlooked because he’s been passed by Broberg and Vincent Desharnais. Both of these men are strictly third pairing but offer depth and PK help.
Who is the next Jeff Petry?? Long shots include Xavier Bourgault. The reason I mention him is that the game he played in the AHL last season surprised me. Looking at his numbers overall, you assume he was disappointing in his 20-year old rookie season. However, he showed ability away from the puck. That’s the kind of player who could arrive earlier than expected, because the part most kids have to figure out has already been done by X.
Bourgault’s outscoring was the best of all pro forwards on Edmonton’s prospect list. If he shows well in preseason, I expect he’ll get sent down. However, if he shows well in preseason and scores well in the AHL, a mid-season recall is possible.
In early July, the possibility of me being on a radio station in September was a distant bell. Thrilled to be back starting on Tuesday and can’t wait to show you what we have in store.
I started in radio June 15, 1980. I drove a 1965 Chevy Bel Air, red with a white hard top roof. Burned more oil than gas. My cassettes that got me from the Village at Southgate to Wetaskiwin included Springsteen’s The River, The Jam’s All Mod Cons, Elvis Costello’s My Aim is True and Neil Young’s Rust Never Sleeps. When I arrived in Wetaskiwin, I’d park behind the Driard Hotel, walk around to the front of the old post office building, and enter CJOI Radio. 1440 CJOI Radio. It’s a wonderful coincidence. I will begin and end my radio career at 1440. I like it.
Sports 1440!! Tuesday.
Listening to Sport 1440 right now. Missed new format by one day.
Good old classic music. Maybe we should rethink this . . .
I think it’s the only oldies station left in Canada, so there will be upset people I expect.
800 CHAB in Moose Jaw plays music so old that its copyright dates are in Roman numerals.
Riders!
Woot! Woot! I am in Mexico now and watching every game this season with a very good Mexican friend. He had never seen CFL football before and hasn’t missed a Riders game this year. Just doing my part to spread the Rider Gospel down south…
His 21 year old daughter has also become a big fan, but largely because she has a MAJOR crush on Jake Dolegala…
I will begin and end my radio career at 1440. I like it.
Al, this filled me with melancholy for some reason. Maybe it’s the splendid weather, despite the cloud of smokey doom; prehaps it’s the recognition that I’m aging too and my kids return to school again this week, but there are fewer and fewer summers left where they’re not in post secondary…I’ve got an amazing 18 year old that’s figuring out what’s left, and 2 brilliant younger daughters that still have a couple more years in high school…and it makes me feel really, really old. I love September; always have…it’s the time for retrospection and renewal, and in the the hockey world, endings too.
I enjoy you. Full stop. I very much hope that you age like John Short, and just stick around and stay relevant. Because what you do matters to people like me. I am very proud to consider you a throwback to the radio that I grew up on…there is comfort there, and the way life expands and explodes and changes, that’s a rare thing, and we should treasure it. And best of all, I consider you a friend. 🙂 When I mention Lowetide, my family knows, because I love what I love and they know that!
That’s it, all I’ve got. You help me feel connected; stick around sir.
BTW, my lovely partner was absolutely tickled by the Springsteen album…but it was as much my excitement and the story of its acquisition that makes it special.
Rock on, Neo-rocker.
I love this post. Thanks for sharing. Rock on, sir.
Two things:
1) If Bourgeault becomes a 2-way wizard, his nickname should be Professor X.
2) Shane’s parents should have named him Chance.
3) Congrats of your radio return LT! Music!
4) Math is hard.
Oilers content on Puckdoku Jr today.
https://www.puckdoku.com/games/2023-09-03-jr
Welcome back the airwaves LT- I’ll be tuning in via podcast/streamed content
Looking forward to it!
I can’t wait to witness the progress that Bourgault and Tullio make in the upcoming season. It’s always exciting to see how players develop and improve over time. Both players are outliers in terms of their ability to penalty kill and also their checking responsibilities as the toll of the season wears on the veterans. From what I remember, Bourgault was injured during a tough run to the Memorial Cup last season. A summer of proper training without rehab could greatly improve his performance in the upcoming preseason. If he impresses, the $250k bonus in his contract may require him to start the season on the NHL roster. This would cause problems for cap compliance.
I believe this little quirk in the roster calculations only applies if the team is starting the season in LTIR
My understanding is that any bonuses that can’t be absorbed under the current year’s cap are deducted the following season.
The Oilers could potentially be liable for Brown, Holloway and Broberg and any other player that hits.
You’re right about that, yes
I believe the original poster is referring to the START of the season and cap calculations, the quirk that the Oilers HAVE had to navigate the last couple of years due to being in LTIR
Yeah.
The Oilers are going to have to be very careful with callups of any player with performance bonuses or they could see themselves in a deep hole next season with the Neal cap penalty plus Brown’s almost guaranteed $3 million bonus.
If the Oilers have to pay performance bonuses for rookies/young players next year, they will be overjoyed. That would be great news, not bad news.
If any of Bourgault, Holloway or Broberg hit any of their performance bonuses – this team is likely winning the president’s trophy.
It is my understanding if a player is not included in the season-opening roster but is recalled during the NHL season, the entire bonus amount will be included in the cap. However, if the player is on the opening roster but is later sent down and then recalled, the bonuses will not be counted until they are actually achieved.
I believe that is the rule if the team is in season opening LTIR like they have been for a few seasons, but if that is not the case, the ELC player can start in the minors then in season the player can be recalled as well without counting the bonus against the cap.
This is directly related to LTIR and setting the reserve pools when a team goes into LTIR.
There are two pools, a salary pool and a bonus pool and they get set at the time a team enters LTIR.
Players with performance bonus potential being on the roster only matters when setting an LTIR bonus pool – this should not apply to the Oilers in October (although it could if a term injury pops up).
You are correct about the absorption of the bonus next year. My comment is regarding Bourgault only. If he makes the opening-day roster, his bonus is only counted if achieved. If he is not on the roster and gets recalled, the full amount is automatically applied.
If the OIlers are stuck paying bonuses for Holloway and Broberg next year, they will be overjoyed.
Are you sure about that?
The cap is projected to rise by $4 million and bonuses for those two and Brown would easily exceed that.
And Brown, Holloway and Broberg need new contracts.
While it’s likely Holloway will be a replacement for Foegele at a cheaper rate, that would still leave an opening on the third line that needs filling while Brown, if retained, should easily get $4 million.
The only unhappy guy is likely to be you, for obvious reasons.
I agree that the Oilers GM won’t be turning cartwheels if any roster players hit their bonuses
I think Foegele will be walked, and Kulak or Ceci (or both) will be moved along
And maybe it’s just me, but the whole Brown signing seems like a 1 and done thing – which I’m OK with provided he plays a full season and puts points on the board
All entirely possible for sure.
However, a young winger would have to step up to replace Brown..perhaps Lavoie.
Broberg should be ready to play 3LD but replacing Ceci on RD could be more problematic and more expensive as good ones will demand more as the cap rises.
Pronger’s job was to mentor and carry any schmoe they played with him. Nurse is being paid $9 million. It is his job to be able to mentor and carry a all-tool defensive prospect who is D+5 and no longer a rookie.
Especially when the remaining two pairs should be above average in terms of the level they are expected to play at.
Nurse has done with with worse players than Broberg.
Broberg got crushed in limited minutes against elite competition last season….Corsi for 39.5%
I’m not sure hitching your wagon to him as a #1RD during a win now season is the best idea.
Sweet lord.
Broberg’s GF% against elites was 50%, which which is better than either Matt Duchene or Ross Colton who you’re been yammering on about all offseason.
And those guys are actually being counted on (and being paid) to play key roles on their teams.
This. Matt Duchene (who our resident troll thinks is be all end all of signings) is an incredibly selfish player that Nashville players and management were very happy to see go.
He wasn’t playing with Nurse at the time.
If Bourgault or Holloway get 20 goals or 60 points, yes, the Oilers management will be over-joyed as the team is looking at Stanley.
Do you know how players qualify for bonuses?
“A” Level Bonuses
“A” Bonuses are worth $212,500 each, to a maximum of $850,000 (maximum 4 achieved). For players drafted starting in 2022, “A” bonuses are worth $250,000 each, to a maximum of $1,000,000 (maximum 4 achieved). They are achieved by each of:
Forwards
-20 goals
-35 assists
-60 points
-Top six in Time on Ice among forwards (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
-Top three in +/- among forwards on team (minimum 42 games)
-0.73 points per game (minimum 42 games)
-End-of Season All Rookie Team
-All Star Selection
-All Star MVP
Defensemen
-10 goals
-25 assists
-40 points
-Top four in Time on Ice among Defensemen (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
-Top three in +/- among defensemen on team (minimum 42 games)
-0.49 points per game (minimum 42 games)
-Top two among defensemen on team in blocked shocks
-End-of Season All Rookie Team
-All Star Selection
-All Star MVP
“B” Level Bonuses
“B” Bonuses are worth a maximum of $2 Million (up to $2.5M for players drafted in 2022 and later), and the full amount of the bonus is awarded if any of the following is achieved:
-Forwards: Top Ten in NHL Forward Goals, Assists, points, or points per game (min 42 GP)
-Defensemen: Top Ten in NHL Defensemen Goals, Assists, points, ice time or points per game (min 42 GP) for Defensemen
-Win any of the following trophies: Hart, Selke, Richard, Conn Smythe, Norris
-1st or 2nd team All-Star
Holloway or Broberg hit essentially any of these and the Oilers can cry about into the Cup during the offseason.
It is a possibility that I could be wrong in my assumption.
Your premise was correct – the Oilers have had to jump through this salary cap hoop for several season’s running – but, what has changed is that the Oilers will be cap compliant to start this season and will not be in LTIR
Gregor mentioned this scenario a couple years ago so I knew where to look – the relevant passage:
This only occurs when you start the season in LTIR, otherwise it wouldn’t be a factor. It isn’t a major deal, but it does impact how the Oilers have to manage their cap for opening day
https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-roster-with-salary-cap-considerations
Thank you for mentioning Tulio with Bourgault – I think Tulio had the most impressive development season of the rookie pros (Noah Philp notwithstanding) and I can see him as a dark-horse to be in the conversation with Bourgault for that call-up.
I wrote the prospect piece on Tulio for the Cult of Hockey a that was posted a few days ago – I’m high on this player.
The performance bonus issue from the last few years is a non-issue this year (as it related to needing to be on the opening night roster).
That concept was related to being in LTIR and setting the “LTIR bonus reserve pool” at the time the team entered LTIR.
Presuming the Oilers are not going over the cap in LTIR on opening night, then Bourgault’s performance bonus (and Holloway’s and Broberg’s) is a non issue at the time).
Congrats LT! I don’t get to listen in from the island but I got friends galore that are glad to have you back on the airwaves.
On the Island and listening to 1440 on Amazon Echo right now.
Pretty eclectic programming…Joni Mitchell followed by Tony Bennet, followed by the Beatles.
It’s kind of like listening to KIXI, which I do in the car from time to time.
I started in radio June 15, 1980.
I will begin and end my radio career at 1440. I like it.
===================
I don’t know if I am more impressed that you have worked for 43 years in radio or that you remember the exact date of your first gig.
There is a touch of serendipity in this next chapter. Congratulations.
Congrats on getting back on the air LT!
Defense
Some people want to see Bouch with Nurse and Ek with Bro as the top 4. I am still bullish on Ceci being in that mix to some capacity. I suspect we will see various pairing permutations this Fall. I hope by the end of the year we have 5 guys who can take top 4 pairing with confidence.
If Bro gets some time to try top 4 it makes sense to get him reps with Ek the seasoned vet and excellent Defenseman. I have seen posters suggest this pairing many times. I have not followed Ek’s career but there are indications he can play RD, and I suspect he can, therefore it would then make sense to have him take the more challenging RD and leave Bro to the LD. I think this would take some challenges off of Bro playing harder comp…thoughts?
So by Feb…
Nurse-Bouch
Bro-Ek
Kulak-Ceci
Vinny
Why would you play the slowing aging guy on the right side instead of the elite skating young stud?
Broberg had really good numbers in a small sample size on the right side with Keith.
LT has posted his small sample size numbers on the right side last year. There were as good as on the left.
Broberg’s numbers are only weak on the left side with Ceci, which is a pair that we will hopefully never see.
Those are less than small sample sizes, they’re meaningless.
The total between both partners is less than 36 minutes. A total of 3 goals scored.
And FWIW (which is unfortunately nothing), Broberg’s CF% with Ceci was 59%.
If Broberg not top 4 material trade him immediately at least will get a asset back unlike Yamo and J.P.
So Bro can adjust. Playing on your offside is more difficult than playing on your natural side. Also get pasted back side more often. I’d rather have a large savvy vet take that extra work on than a virtual rookie.
Ekholm was a good camper last year for Nashville and did in fact play some on the right side but the numbers were not good at all. Part of that could have been who he was partnered with. McDonagh has really slowed down and Jeremy Lauzon was simply brutal.
But w/Broberg already used to playing on the right side, it would be far better for the Oilers to keep Ekholm on his left hand side where he is elite.
Yes, I was going to post along the same. The date on Ekholm on the right side from his Nashville days has been crunched and its not good.
For me, moving him over is not a good option. Of course, a young player breaking in to the league on his off-side is not ideal but I would much prefer that (in particular given he’s done so in different leagues, he’s done so in small samples in the NHL and he has the high end skate-work which, from accounts, is key).
Ekholm has proven material less efficient on his right (as per the numbers) and he’s too important as an anchor on the left side to move him over, in my opinion.
Break a leg.
The broadcaster, not the hockey players.
Congratulations about getting back on the Radio LT. And thank you for the beautiful post yesterday as well.
LT – Glad all y’all will be back on the air this coming week (A little Texan I’ve picked up living down here – for reference y’all is singular, all y’all is the proper plural). Great to have such broad and varied coverage for the Oilers.
A PSA for those in the US who want to listen. Streaming in the US may not be easily available through their website or on iHeart radio. Right now, the station can’t be streamed in the US due to international licensing agreements (click on the stations listen live button and you get a message telling you that). That may change if the prohibition was based on 1440 as a music station and not a sports talk radio station. If it doesn’t change, using VPN is a possible solution. Not sure if delayed recordings of the shows on podcast would be affected the same way.
The River my favourite Springsteen tune. Why no love for Dire Straits? If Lavoie drives to the net and lurks around the kill zone he will score.
I suspect he has all but zero chance of playing games in October but will be surprised if he has zero NHL games on his resume by season’s end.
He is such a good player with the puck on his stick – a great passer of the puck with vision and the patience in tight areas to wait for lanes to open.
He won’t score from distance but he has a nose for the net and will go to the hard areas.
The key for him, in my opinion, was the standard: getting strong and in better shape to handle the rigors of a long pro season against strong men.
I presume he did that this off-season and I look for him to produce a solid 0.8 P/G in the AHL with clear outscoring and PK work.
I’m going to give Ty Tulio as shoutout here as a dark-horse to be in that conversation with Bourgault when middle/top six call-ups are needed.
The hope is one of these kids is called up as opposed to a Malone, Caggiula, Hamblin, etc.
Good points
To me whether or not anyone pops is as much on the coaches as the players. The fellas close now are all good talented hockey players with no obvious NHL hurdles
In the past we had players with obvious flaws- a lack of skill, a lack of boots, a lack of size etc. Not surprisingly the best of them eeked out bottom tier careers and lots didn’t make it
Essentially benching guys for one mistake, not using them when they have shown growth and using lesser ‘vets’ (who make tons of mistakes), these are all team self inflicted injuries. That mess up development and necessary growing confidence
And we watch players like Wyatt Johnson and wish they were our draft pick. If they did take him with the Oilers he’d most likely be where Bourgault is. Because Oilers. Lots of change the last few years, still some things seem intractable
He seems to have taken the commitment to detail and playing the game the ‘right way’ stuff to heart last offseason (I believe those were areas he talked about the team mentioning, and also standard/necessary things for most new pros).
I’m guessing that bodes well for this summer’s homework. We should also recall also that he missed a lot of training last offseason while he was recovering from injury.
And also the shorter off-season with The Bourg playing in the ’22 Memorial Cup, which ended June 25th.
Bakersfield’s first-round exit this spring essentially doubled his off-season from the year prior.
I’d expect The Bourg to make big strides this season.
IIRC Bourgault was recovering from an injury sustained during a gruelling run to the Memorial Cup last off-season. A proper summer of training without serious rehab could make a big difference in getting some traction this preseason. If he shows exceptionally well the $250k bonus in his contract could necessitate that he be on the NHL roster when the season starts.
The performance bonus issue from the last few years is a non-issue this year (as it related to needing to be on the opening night roster).
That concept was related to being in LTIR and setting the “LTIR bonus reserve pool” at the time the team entered LTIR.
Presuming the Oilers are not going over the cap in LTIR on opening night, then Bourgault’s performance bonus (and Holloway’s and Broberg’s) is a non issue at the time).
Obvious answer is Dylan Holloway, right?
I could see Lavoie making an impact but can’t say that a player fighting for 12F is a “key player” at this point.
I would suggest Philip Broberg but he’s over the 50 game threshold.
Does the 7D qualify as a “key player” as that is Vinny D. The 7D will play games, lots of games, but I have this player in a depth role and Broberg in an impact role.
I could be wrong on that.
Assuming they don’t play Holloway at 4C if they invested in centres instead of wingers Ralph could be an impact player
Make a tough minutes 3Rd line and a skilled 4th that could do some outscoring. I can’t see them using Holloway and Ralph together but if it was with Ryan I think they would get to crushing other 4th lines, and many 3rd lines
But that doesn’t seem likely given what we have seen. I would far rather have Holloway playing C than Pederson. Or broken hasn’t been training fully Sutter. More
speed, more talent which will be more valuable once he settles in
This was the Oilers way when they were dominating
Coincidence that your producer and one of your favourite artists share the name Declan?
Turn on, tune in, drop out.
Best of luck in your new endeavour.
Looking forward to tuning in Al!
Can’t wait to listen to your show Al.
The Lowetide Army will be listening
Lowetide Army? We are the People’s Army of Lowetide.
Glorious, comrade.