The Condors roster for first official AHL game, October 9 2015
The game was impressive in many ways (Leon Draisaitl penalty shot, Laurent Brossoit shutout, four shots for Darnell Nurse), but that contest between the Bakersfield Condors and Grand Rapids Griffins produced many NHL players. Many. How many future NHLers will take to the ice in Penticton today?
The two best futures belonged to the Oilers, five of the top 10 and eight of the 17 who played 100+ NHL games.
Leon Draisaitl 638
Darnell Nurse 559
Nick Jensen 484
Andreas Athanasiou 459
Anthony Mantha 420
Tomas Nosek 398
Tyler Pitlick 386
Jordan Oesterle 349
Jujhar Khaira 336
Tyler Bertuzzi 326
Brad Hunt 288
Xavier Ouelett 178
Eric Tangradi 150
Brian Lashoff 136
Iiro Pakarinen 134
Martin Frk 124
Laurent Brossoit 117
Ryan Sproul 44
Jared Coreau 21
Robbie Russo 19
Andrew Miller 15
Mitch Callahan 5
David Musil 4
Thomas McCollum 3
Bodgan Yakimov 1
The underlined names are those who were not drafted, but rather signed as undrafted free agents. That’s what Oilers fans should be hoping for from the Oilers. Jake Sloan and Brady Stonehouse are the two men I would choose from this group of players who are in camp and eligible to sign.
PROJECTED TRAINING CAMP ROSTER
Stuart Skinner, 24. It isn’t just the fact he posted a .914 save percentage in 50 games, it was the calm feet and confidence displayed.
Jack Campbell, 31. Fell year over year in save percentage (.914 to .888) but regression is likely.
Calvin Pickard, 31. He was .912 and hung on to the AHL starting job but that may not be the case this season.
Olivier Rodrigue, 23. He emerged as a legit NHL prospect last season, posting a .912 save percentage while carrying the mail for long periods.
Ryan Fanti, 23. He played in just 8 AHL games (.884 SP). Jason Gregor reporting he is banged up, we may see an additional goalie added. Perhaps Nathan Day or Brett Brochu.
Darnell Nurse, 28. One of the vital cogs in Edmonton’s success, Nurse delivered 12-31-43 in 82 games and a 56 percent goal share at even strength.
Mattias Ekholm, 33. His performance with the Oilers was (I think) the most impressive since Pronger in 2005-06.
Brett Kulak, 29. He scored 3-17-20 in 82 games overall and owned a 52 percent goal share at five-on-five.
Philip Broberg, 22. He is ready, his general manager has verbally cleared the track, and all that is left involves deployment by Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson.
Markus Niemelainen, 25. Big defenseman is a spectacular open-ice hitter but has some coverage gaps.
Ben Gleason, 25. He’s a strong passer and skater, he’ll be quality with the Condors and a recall isn’t out of the question.
Noel Hoefenmayer, 24. Hoefenmayer’s resume suggests he is more a two-way type than Gleason, Peter Harling of Dobber Hockey compared his carrer progression to Darren Raddysh here. Chances of making the team: None.
Cam Dineen, 25. I’m ranking Dineen last on the list due to known chaos (he was exciting at both ends of the ice in Bakersfield), but Gleason and Hoefenmayer could be more giving for all we know.
Alex Peters, 27. He’s 6.04, 220 and a solid AHL defenceman.
Xavier Bernard, 23. Big two-way blue, saw ECHL and AHL time last year.
Jake Johnson, 24. Looked good in 10 games with the Fort Wayne Komets at the end of the year.
Cody Ceci, 29. His offense fell (1-14-15) basically in half year over year, and his goal share at five-on-five (49 percent) was the only one below 50 among the regulars.
Evan Bouchard, 23. Absolute home run season on the way, all of his arrows are headed in a good direction.
Vincent Desharnais, 27. A giant defenseman (6.07, 229) who plays with an edge and has the wingspan of an actual Condor.
Phil Kemp, 24.Classic shutdown defenseman doesn’t get noticed when he’s on, but he continues to make yearly progress.
Max Wanner, 20. His offensive output (30 points in 44 games) is often mentioned, but the key to this player is his defense and his edge. He’ll be one of the key players to track in Bakersfield this season.
Connor Corcoran, 22. Defense-first blue had seven goals over 25 games in three cups of coffee with Henderson (AHL).
Connor McDavid, 26. Transcendent talent, human cheat code, shock and awe over 200 feet of ice.
Leon Draisaitl, 27. The big man delivered another impact season and should be good for 50+ goals again in 2023-24.
Ryan McLeod, 22. One of just a few early 20’s players who will get prominent minutes on this veteran roster.
BRANDON SUTTER, 34. He’s perfect (RHC, checker, FO man) if he can keep up. Bakersfield likely.
Lane Pederson, 26.He’s more substantial than many Oilers fans believe.
Drake Caggiula, 29. Listed as a C on the Bakersfield site, I wrote about him here.
James Hamblin, 24. A speed merchant with enough skill to score 21 AHL goals in 2021-22, he got to the NHL for 10 games in 2022-23.
Greg McKegg, 31. Wildly disappointing start to his Bakersfield season, effectively dashing any hope of recall. He did recover later in the season, and I would suggest a recall is more likely now.
Brad Malone, 34.He’s a solid AHL center, so Bakersfield needs him.
Jayden Grubbe, 20.Based on the scouting reports he’ll slide in to a two-way role in the AHL and thrive.
Carl Berglund, 23. He’s a two-way center with a resume that suggests the coaching staff will like his attention to detail.
Jake Sloan, 19. Playmaker, fine passer, he has a chance. Good size.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 30. His finest NHL season (82, 37-67-104) reads like peak Jean Ratelle, he will regress and people will hammer him.
Evander Kane, 32. He scored at a 30-goal pace, but his goal share five-on-five (45 percent) and expected goal share (48 percent) are a concern.
Dylan Holloway, 21. Speedy winger with great passing, he was a disappointment as an NHL rookie.
Mattias Janmark, 30. He is a savvy veteran as they used to say. Helps do the chores.
ADAM ERNE, 28. A physical presence and it still matters to the Oilers.
Carter Savoie, 21.A big season in Bakersfield would make everything right.
Matvey Petrov, 20. He is the biggest name graduating to pro hockey this fall.
Antonin Verreault, 19. Playmaking winger. Great passer. I had him No. 101 on my 2023 final list.
Zach Hyman, 31. Followed career best totals (27-27-54 in 76 games) with another career best (36-47-83 in 79 games) and is now clearly established as the best major free-agent signing in team history.
Connor Brown, 29. In the last three seasons, he has averaged 64 games, 16-24-40 with various teams.
Warren Foegele, 27. The youngest of the established wingers by some margin, finished with 2.09 pts-60 and a 55 percent goal share five-on-five. Music!
Derek Ryan, 36. He has 23 goals from the depth of the roster over the last two seasons, and a five-on-five goal share of 51 percent in those two years.
Raphael Lavoie, 22. He had a strong year in the AHL and is looking at fresh blacktop and a real opportunity on the highway ahead. Godspeed young man.
SAM GAGNER PTO, 34. He has utility and still brings some offense. He has a chance.
Xavier Bourgault, 20. If he can add some offense to his resume, Bourgault is going to play a long time.
Seth Griffith, 30.He is reaching the age where good players, and he is one, begin to fade.
Tyler Tullio, 21. He showed great range as an AHL rookie, and I do think his career trajectory lands him a checking job in the NHL.
Jake Chiasson, 20. He arrives with a nice set of tools and a real opportunity. His offense will take him to his natural place.
RW Ethan De Jong, 24. He has a good shot and some offensive acumen, biggest selling point is his responsible play while in pursuit of the puck.
RW Dino Kambeitz, 23. He plays a determined game, and simple. Kind of like Patrick Russell.
Cameron Wright RW 24 ECHL . He has size (6.01, 200) and coming off a 29-34-63 (in 64 games) ECHL season.
Big show today, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. We have a full boat of guests that include Scott Petrak from The Chronicle-Telegram and Medina Gazette to talk Cleveland Browns. Murat Ates from The Athletic Winnipeg will talk about the Jets young stars, offseason and expectations of 2023-24. Jason Gregor will pop in at 1:20 to discuss Oilers and Elks. Bob McElligott is the play-by-play voice of the NHL’s Columbus Blue Jackets and we’ll talk about the situation there and new coach Pascal Vincent. You can leave comments here, @Lowetide on twitter or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly. We will see the TC roster from the Oilers this week!!
Impressions from my trip to Penticton (accompanied by Redbird62):
Akey is the Oiler prospect who got the most attention and with good reasons. Excellent offensive instincts and excellent wheels that allowed him to get back in time after jumping into the play several times. He reminds me a bit of a rover like Scott Niedermayer or Darnell Nurse (in his early days up to about age 20). On the downside, he is pretty high-event as he made a few defensive miscues and took some undisciplined penalties.
Bourgault and Savoie both impressed, but only scored 1 goal between them despite numerous chances that they created.
Petrov was decent in the first game, quite good in the second, but subpar in the third game.
Jayden Grubbe got some love for his defensive work, but Ethan De Jong also plays a similar game. Yes, I know De Jong is 3 1/2 years older than Grubbe, but I am looking forward to see what kind of an impact he makes in Bako.
I would like to see Stonehouse and Sloan signed, but if I had to pick one, I’d lean to Stonehouse, who was more of a play driver.
After Akey, the next best dmen were Wanner and then Johnson/Bernard. Big Noah Ganske didn’t impress me particularly.
Nathan Day wasn’t bad, but I worry he may come from the Keven Bouchard line of Oiler goalie prospects.
Winnipeg was the weakest team in the tourney. Lambert was their best forward. Milic looked strong to my eye. Chaz Lucius physically reminds me of Kyle Connor. He is good, but not Kyle Connor good. Colby Barlow had a couple good moments, but otherwise, I didn’t see him making much of an impact.
Coronato played pretty well for the Flames, as expected, but so did 6’8″ forward Adam Klapka. Recent first round pick Sam Honzek was just ok.
The Nucks were the strongest team. Aatu Raty, Aidan McDonough and Akito Hirose caught my eye.
Lots of ticky-tacky penalties were called throughout the tournament which resulted in lots of powerplay time for Berglund, Savoie, Bourgault and Akey and lots of penalty killing for Bourgault, De Jonge and Grubbe.
Full pass was $115+tax for all 6 games, which was worth it IMO. Crowd sizes were a bit disappointing as they ranged from about 1000-3000, except for this morning’s game which was around 500 or so. Capacity here is 5000.
We saw Kenny Holland, Rick Pracey and what I assume were 3 scouts at the bar. Was tempted to tell him to sign Stonehouse and Sloan, but we let him drink his beer in peace.
Got in some good wine tasting between games. Apparently there is a nude beach in the area, but that will have to wait until next year.
Possibly. However, it was good to see that all the Oilers main prospects (Petrov, Berglund, Savoie, De Jong, Bourgault, Chiasson, Tullio, Akey, Bernard, Wanner) got a push by playing all 3 games. The fact that Stonehouse also got 3 games and Sloan only got 2 may be a tell.
Nobody loves Bourg more than me…but man, sure thought he would produce a bit more here.
As you mention, the field here was not awe inspiring
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 8:55 pm
Rick Pracey was in Oilers Now and ended by specifically talking about procurement via the undrafted free agent market in the CHL and European leagues.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 6:06 pm
Gotta be honest, I’m not upset that the a direct Pacific division rival of the Oilers has to travel all the way to Australia (and back) and deal with the physical impact that will have.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 6:03 pm
You know what’s better than getting hurt early in the first rookie tourney game and then missing all of camp and never getting going with further injuries through the season?
Maybe being the Oilers most consistently effective forward through the three games.
Welcome back Carter Savoie – you are going to score 20 in the AHL this season!
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 5:55 pm
Sail on Justin Bailey – heading to Sharks camp on a PTO!
Got home to watch the Canucks YouTube feed to watch the game. Found it, rewound it and started to play, then 5 minute later got the 1260 experience
Actually had to sign into my YouTube account and the display said it was “Private”.
So I reverted to Plan B, went to Onhockey.tv and clicked on the link and get message This video is private. I can no longer find it, or the other games on the Canucks Site. I blame the Oilers for this.
I understand that it is a business, but no other team does this. I do not live close to Edmonton and I’ve gone to Penticton twice just to watch this tournament. It had good crowds, but not full, probably 70-80%. Judging by the current crowds, it seems 60% might be generous.
So, in limiting access and making it a paid service, who is it affecting? Probably only hard core fans, many, if not all who had to suffer through those extremely tough years. And there were many.
When I arrived China shortly after the 2 Michaels and the teacher and the drug dealer were imprisoned a few years ago, my relatives made jokes about me going to prison. My retort was, I was not afraid, I could easily handle Chinese Prison given the psychological torture I’ve had to endure as a fan of the Edmonton Oilers for so many years….
So if any assclown who works for the Oilers is reading this, thanks for rewarding my 40+ years of loyalty with this bullshit. Please pass this message on to whomever made this decision, please tell them: “You Suck!”
Just to be clear, I think of all the friends and relatives of players who will never see the light of day in the NHL, or probably not even the AHL along with the most hardcore Oilers fans, who cannot watch this without paying, meanwhile ALL the other teams in league are free (except for the Canucks now for some reason).
I equate this to when they used to blackout CFL games. It is shortsighted and alienating. I can afford it, but I am extremely stubborn, so I’ll find something else to turn to.
Meh – be stubborn if you want – I purchased Oilers Plus the day it launched and have never regretted it – so much great, well produced, content that should require a fee.
I understand how happy you are with Oilers+, but that is not the point. Basically the games were free for the fans of all the other teams. Even this game, had I watched it live, was probably free on the Canucks channel, but I would have had to take time off work to do so.
My point is, this is the least star-studded team the Oilers has sent and the team is charging, while everything single other NHL team is not.
Why should we have to pay for the exact same telecast that other fanbases get to see for free. I understand it is no skin off your teeth, since you don’t mind paying, but why do this now? Why risk alienating hardcore fans or potentially block new fans or interested observers from watching prospects for this team? This is an easy way to bring in new fans and probably snuffs out future revenue, for what? Failing to grow your fanbase.
From a business perspective it is extremely short-sighted. Potentially the Oilers have lost fans to the Blackhawks, for example….so disappointing to me.
Pretendergast
September 18, 2023 4:54 pm
LT thanks for starting up the show again. Nice to have the laid back conversation while i do the miserable things at the gym.
Loved the story at the end, had me laughing. The imagery of your wife chasing down your boy was hilarious.
AsiaOil
September 18, 2023 3:53 pm
Got side-track on the benefits of Lavoie as 2LW if he can handle it when OP <correctly> pointed out how bad Hyman-Drai were as a combo. That said – if Lavoie can provide another big body and shot on the 2nd line – that would push RNH to 3LW with Foegle and McLeod (potentially a damn fine 3rd line) and Holloway could be 12th forward (4C) between Janmark and Ryan. No need to worry about a “has been” or “never was” as 12th forward. Holloway would be slotted in a perfectly fine place and he could even take some time in the top 6 if we went with 11 forwards and Lavoie sat.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 3:43 pm
I just have the game on in the background because, well, lawyering, but Akey just took his third minor and I saw him with some questionable rush defence on the first goal again.
I guess, well, he was just drafted a few months ago, right?
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 3:37 pm
and there is another 49 second later to tie it.
A GREAT job on the forecheck by DeJong who pops one out with a diving poke to Savoie in the slot who buries it.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 3:35 pm
Bourgault with a beauty sauce pass on the 2 on 1 (left to right) for a Berglund one-timer goal.
Boys down 2-1.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 1:36 pm
Test.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 1:27 pm
Holland quote on Ekholm from the 1 on 1 at The Athletic:
I thought he did a great job being a role model and mentor for Bouchard last year. I’m confident he’ll do that with Desharnais and Broberg this year too, especially Broberg given that they’re both Swedes. He’ll be able to help Broberg go through the whole process of establishing himself as an NHL player.
I’m of the opinion that something has to break <in a good way> to complete the defense. The options are clear:
1) Broberg can handle 2RD with Ekholm – other pairs are Nurse/Bouchard and Kulak/Ceci with Desharnais as 7D
2) we trade some combination of Broberg/Ceci/Kulak/1st round pick for the RD equivalent of Ekholm to play with Nurse. Someone like Pesce but it’s a tough trade. Kulak plus #1 pick is optimal as it gives you this: Nurse/xxx, Ekholm/Bouchard, Broberg/Ceci
3) pick up Dumba for picks/prospects if nothing else works and trade Kulak for picks in a second deal (unless ARZ wants him) to make cap room: Ekholm/Bouchard, Nurse/Dumba, Broberg/Ceci
It’s tough because of overpaying Nurse. Ekholm money is what Dom said first pair non elites get. That 3M would cover the salary of a significant D trading Ceci out or pay for Bouch in a couple
Done now but the next GM has an issue there unless they get very fortunate with the success of emerging players and their salaries or are fearless in of the ‘room’ and players feelings, which they should be
It’s not the cap space. Try find a RH Ekholm at any price. He doesn’t exist with the exception of Pesce who *might* be available as a rental at an exorbitant price. Think what he paid for Ekholm.
I went through the league again today and there is nothing reasonable in terms of availability, performance and price. Guys who are available are old, damaged or over-paid (or all of the above). The only team with extra quality RHD is the Islanders. Only Dobson doesn’t have a NTC and Broberg would have to absolutely blow-up into a potential 1LD to make them even think about it. I know OP doesn’t like Dumba – but at the end of the day – is he better than Desharnais or Broberg on his off-side? That might be all we can expect.
Irony of the day…..Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson one-for-one is not a trade Seattle (or anyone else) would ever make right now.
I do think there’s more than a few players relieved that Babcock will not be the new sheriff in town. I expect to see the players rally around Pascal Vincent being a fun team to watch and exceeding expectations.
But is a coach’s job to make players relieved? Or to make them succeed?
Pascal Vincent will be coming in right before training camp. The last time I recall a coach coming in on such short notice was Jared Bednar in Colorado.
His team finished with a 22-56-4 record. A .293 winning percentage in the Bettman point era.
A happy worker is a productive worker. I get your a Babcock fan but what he did in Toronto was inexcusable and the modano thing was nasty. I have zero sympathy which is found between shit and syphillis for Babcock. Good riddance so glad Holland couldn’t get him here.
Players can’t really succeed if they don’t trust the coach. This is the same coach who many players before have called out Babcock for his abusive behaviour. Can’t expect players to take the leap of faith into the arms of someone they don’t trust.
With the players union being involved, and reports of the photo sharing/privacy issue being the “tip of the iceberg”, there’s also likely more to this story.
Babcock asked a future star green rookie to rat out his new teammates putting the kid in a terrible no-win position. At least Eakins used his over the hill 5-6 D-man Captain for all the daily and nightly dirt on his teammates.
Wouldn’t be shocked if Katie Strang hits the college and university Babcock coached at an uncovers more dirt. I’m sure players will start speaking out more.
Wild to think this is how he will be remembered in hockey.
I laugh when they keep saying this is old school coaching No this is a jerk manipulating young men. This happens today just as much as 30 years ago in every industry. A percentage of people thrive on having dirt on individuals for use as leverage.
Exactly. Or that this is a softer generation of hockey players who can’t handle tough coaches like Babcock when really, Babcock (aged 60) pissed off players like Modano (53) Franzen (43), Commodore (43) and Chris Chelios (61) said Babcock’s verbal abuse of Franzen was one of the worst things he has seen.
Hard to say it’s on the younger generation when players who are around the same age as Babcock (and older!) don’t like his behaviour and treatment of players.
And to think he did all this after inheriting All Star teams. Babcock was spoon fed a damn gift in Detroit. That was already an All Star franchise on an All Star run. He did nothing. He caused nothing. If anything he stunted those teams with his antics.
He went to Toronto and did the same thing but with younger guys. Ask yourself why Dubas paid so damn much for and then to get rid of Marleau who’s only departing words were effusive praise about TO’s young core. Remember that it was Shanahan who hired Babcock…
This guy was lucky beyond anyone’s wildest dreams and he acted like a school yard bully. He could have been a Legend. Now he’s an asterisk. What a waste.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 12:51 pm
Forward Tiers outside the top 11:
Tier 1: Options for 12F:
Lavoie, Sutter, Gagner, Erne
Tier 2: Tweeners for call-up (depending on how many Tier 1 are on contract and in the org in the AHL):
Pedreson, Caggiula, Hamblin, Malone
Tier 3: Real propsects that aren’t options in October but may just Tier 2 as options come Jan-March:
Bougault, Tulio
Tier 4: Can’t imagine they are options this season but can’t wait to watch their AHL development:
Can’t edit but I forgot to mention, I am one that thinks that Pederson is less substantial than LT.
I recall Holland saying that he and Caggiula were signed for AHL depth.
I see he isn’t a strong defensive player or plus PK guy – he’s an offensive guy that can’t produce offence at the NHL level – I’m not sure that player is needed as 12F/4C.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 12:47 pm
I think we will all agree that Niemo is likely the first call-up option, in particular if a left D goes down but:
1) I do think that Phil Kemp will be considered if a RD goes does. He is such a smart defensive d-man with under-rated offensive instincts (and transition play) – if he can skate well enough to defend the rush at the NHL level, he has a chance for a career;
2) Noel H. really intrigues me – likely blocked by Niemo to start but I love poaching guys out of the Leafs org that pop and he seems to have this solid 2-2-way game and has adapted and grown his game (become a “protector” out there in some respects). If I’m not mistaken, he’s played alot of the right side as a Marlie and I think he likely fits in to the Condors on the right side along with Kemp and Wanner;
3) Gleason is the most experience of the “new guys” but I just don’t think an offensive/PP specialist with defensive issues is what this team will need, at any point.
This is like the Bob Mckenzie of pro lists as it’s a huge aggregation. 7 Oilers on it (most of any one team by my count) with pretty accurate descriptions imo (eg. Nurse is overpaid not terrible, Nuge likely won’t hit 100 again, etc.) I like Hyman’s description because I’ve never thought of him that way.
Some bias seeps through but as a tier aggregator it’s a fine exercise.
Thanks for posting.
Funny how the authors rank Bouchard ahead of Nurse, Nuge, and Hyman.
They deduct from Nuge because of his powerplay points, and over-inflate Bouchard … due to his powerplay points.
Offside
September 18, 2023 10:38 am
I hope Nuge does not get too much criticism if (when?) his stats drop this year. But a sure-fire way to answer those critics is with a strong playoff performance which seems to have eluded him so far in his fantastic (and no doubt – frustrating) career
with a strong playoff performance which seems to have eluded him so far
Nuge had a strong playoff in 2022.
16 6-8-14 boxcars with 9 of the points at 5v5. He was outscored 9-10 at 5v5 but he was fed Dzone starts with Hyman, Ryan and Archibald as his most common linemates.
He wasn’t good this past playoff, but I’d gladly take that 2022 performance again in 2024.
Nuge had 8 points in 4 postseason games in 2020. Overall he has a slightly better P/GP rate in the post season than in the regualr season (49 GP, 39 points). Biggest concern is his awful 37% goal share (+19/-33) at 5v5.
Just had a look thinking it was a lot of Nuge being asked to ‘drive his own line’ but it’s actually been the opposite.
The last 3 playoffs seasons (convenient on NST) Nuge has a 41% goal share (13-19). 1-1 vs. WPG in 2021, 9-10 in 2022 and 3-8 in 2023.
Over the 3 years all the damage was with Draisaitl (0-6 goals, 1 of them was with McDavid and Draisaitl). Nuge was 1-1 with just McDavid, and 12-12 on his own.
Weird, hey? And the Nuge-Draisaitl underlying numbers were fine enough too (49% shots, 53% xGoals). So, uh, stop having a sub-900 PDO you guys.
It would be nice if everyone could shoot the lights out again- it’s fun – but I just hope every player is focused on winning their minutes, every shift, and do
Nuge had a fantastic playoff the year before last season.
OriginalPouzar
September 18, 2023 10:16 am
BRANDON SUTTER, 34. He’s perfect (RHC, checker, FO man) if he can keep up. Bakersfield likely.
I have to agree, his “skill-set is perfect” – a legit right shot center with size, a history of playing well against tough competition, good FO guy and good PK guy.
Of course, this player was oft-injured and barely hanging on to a career 3 years ago at 31.
I think the organization is really hoping he can turn back the clock and fill that 4C role but, realisitically, can this player make an impact on a contending NHL team. It seems unlikely and it seems, to me, that with a good/great camp, its Raphael Lavoie that is the one player in the battle for 12F that could make a real impact.
Perhaps Sutter is signed to an AHL deal (or even an NHL deal) and is given some time in the AHL to see if he can “find his 28 year old game”?
I totally agree with you. Who on this board was actually paying attention to Brandon Sutter’s career. Besides that, was then and this is now. How can anyone pass such judgement.
I can say that I was paying attention, I thought he would be a good fit before signing in Vancouver. You can find my posts on the subject at the time.
However, in Vancouver he was given extreme Zone Starts/Heavy Lifting and very little help.
And then the injuries took their toll and started to pile up.
Here is a snapshot of his last 7 seasons, let’s call it the heart of his career, the numbers are year, 1st with Pittsburgh, remainder with ‘nucks.
Games Played, % total OZ Faceoffs, % OZ FO’s vs Elites, FO’s per 60 vs Elites, Time On Ice % vs Elites:
As a comparison, Derek Ryan’s last season resembled the middle 3 seasons shown here. Although the job for the 4C is not to take on the Elites head-on, it does reveal some things.
FWIW, Here are Sutter’s GF & GA/60 vs Elites (1st set of numbers), during the same years compared with Derek Ryan’s (2nd set of numbers).
BS 1.2 to 2.5. DR 3.3 to 3.3
1.9 to 0.6. 3.0 to 3.3
0.3 to 2.1. 3.3 to 3.3
2.2 to 4.1. 3.4 to 1.4
2.8 to 8.3. 1.8 to 2.9
0.8 to 2.3. 1.7 to 3.3
1.1 to 2.8. 3.5 to 3.5
1.4 to 2.9. 2.9 to 2.9
Clearly Ryan is an offensive producer, whereas Sutter is a defensive player. However, in only once instance did Sutter keep his head above water vs Elites, while Ryan has managed the feat in his 2 seasons as an Oiler in his mid-30’s.
In Sutter’s case it was his first season in Vancouver where he was able to keep his head above water and in only a 20 game sample size. Of concern, this was 8 seasons ago.
As a comparison, Derek Ryan’s last season resembled the middle 3 seasons shown here.
I guess you mean the face-offs, but Ryan has never had seasons approaching those in terms of %TOI vs. elites.
Ryan’s career has ranged from 21.1 to 28.5% TOI vs. elites.
Sutter has the one season at 21.3% but all the rest of his seasons were between 33.2 and 50.0% (as you show).
And I think you also mis-transcribed Sutter’s GF/GA numbers vs. elites (Ryan’s look correct).
Sutter’s by season were:
1.2 – 2.5
1.9 – 0.6 (20GP)
0.3 – 2.1
1.2 – 0.7
0.8 – 2.3 (26GP)
1.1 – 2.8
1.4 – 2.9
So he was being outscored in the big picture to be sure, but he was actually suppressing offense (for both teams). All of his seasons were under 3.0 GA/60 (4 of Ryan’s were over, though Ryan had a better GF%).
Thanks for cleaning this up, unfortunately I can no longer correct my inevitable mistakes anymore. I should probably buy a computer some day instead of doing this on my phone…
Other factors are probably goaltending & quality of linemates. But certainly Ryan generates a lot more offense and Sutter suppresses it both ways.
So in some ways that is in Sutter’s favour, in terms of his offensive drop-off, where he can’t drop off too much more. The question is, how good are his defensive & FO chops.
I think what this potentially reveals is that he may have a much better chance than many of us think…
Lavoie has the more perfect skill set. He just has to deliver it. Will he get the opportunity to succeed or to fail. The Oilers need more players, fewer retreads.
At the same time, I think that Sutter has the skill-set the organization itself is look for (that true hard to play against big center with PK and FO ability).
If the bottom six is constructed with
Foegele-MacLeod-Lavoie
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
It might work fine , as long as they get equal ice time and don’t favor the top six too much.
I have alot of time for Holloway at 4C but I just can’t imagine Woody finding enough minutes for that line to make it a reasonable option.
I do think the 3rd line with McLeod/Foegele is forming a good duo that is developing a niche of playing tough competition well and that the coaching staff may realize this and get them 12-14 5 on 5 minutes per game (and Holloway can be the 3W on that line) but I just don’t see enough minutes for a 4th line and, frankly, I don’t think Janmark and Ryan should get more than 10 minutes at evens and I also think Holloway should play with some more skill.
It will be fascinating to see if Rodrigue can put his name in the conversation with Pickard for the goalie call up if there is an injury up top. I have to presume that, subject to regression, Rodrigue gets a true split of the starts but I also presume that, subject to performance again, Woody (and Holland) will defer to the veteran goalie with NHL experience for the call-up if/when needed.
Philip Broberg, 22. He is ready, his general manager has verbally cleared the track, and all that is left involves deployment by Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson.
Sid at ON had an article yesterday with info on Broberg’s lack of success on the right side in the SHL and that does have merit but, of course, that was as a teenager in a pro league. My “data analysis” is very high level and cursory but his shot share/possession metrics and goal share range from good to sensational with each of Nurse, Keith, Kulak and Ekholm over the last two season. The small sample with Ekholm is off the page (2-0 goals and 80% expected goals).
Small samples turn in to large samples and I think there is a real opportunity to run this player as 2RD with Ekholm and see if there is something there – if there is, its MASSIVE for this team’s success and ability to add at another position.
Sid at ON had an article yesterday with info on Broberg’s lack of success on the right side in the SHL
I saw that too, but it sounds like the data he presented was from a really small sample of games. Sid’s description was: “This summer, I went back and manually tracked a few microstats in a couple of Broberg’s games in Sweden (in 2020-21).”
It sounds like a considerably smaller sample size (and split between LD/RD) even than what you’ve been posting with lefty Oiler D partners.
While the NHL sample is quite small, it would seem (from the description provided) to be more robust and more relevant than the microstats from a few SHL games.
Broberg got injured at the World Juniors and played hurt (charleyhorse, I think). How many of those games in 20-21 in Sweden on his off side were after the World Juniors after he was coming back from his first significant leg injury that limited his mobilitiy.
Charleyhorses usually take months to fully recover.
Yeah it was a very clear before and after that world junior tournament. And it wasn’t just one injury, he played through multiple injuries in the tournament and came home a wreck. The kid can certainly play through pain. His club team shut him down pretty quickly and he never really regained full form that year. He had some serious highlight reel stuff before christmas that season but that kinda disappeared post injury.
Real screw up from the swedish medical team during the world junior tournament, players want to play, especially an extremely competitive guy who’s the leading man on D in his last shot at the world juniors. As a medical team you have to actively shut him down.
Skellefteå’s team doc was so pissed off about how it was handled when he came back.
Thank you for this, and I do recall you providing this great info in the past.
If I’m not mistaken, I think I remember reading/hearing that Team Sweden did consult with the Oilers re: him continuing to play but I could be mis-remembering.
Just totaled up Broberg’s NHL numbers with Kulak, Nurse, Keith and Ekholm as his partner (across 2 seasons).
139 mintues
SF% 59.2
GF% 61.5 (8GF-5GA)
xGF% 60.8
Ozone start% 46.2
(he was presumably somewhat sheltered from elite competition, but he was not just being fed offensive zone starts).
To me if a player has no obvious big problems and is an elite skater, if a team can’t bring that player along it’s on them. As far as I know he doesn’t have lifestyle problems, trains, has excelled at every level, is big fast and has hockey talent
A good coaching staff can use a player like that
innercitysmytty
September 18, 2023 10:10 am
LT, I have to say that I don’t agree that Nuge will get hammered by people if he regresses. I think a large chunk of the fanbase understands last season was likely an outlier. I would also expect that with the potency of the PP and how solid the top 9 should be this season, regression probably still leaves him in the 75-85 point range (health permitting). If you mean the fringe of the fanbase that hammers players over poor play, real or perceived, then sure that could happen. Does that really deserve oxygen though?
John Chambers
September 18, 2023 9:13 am
Which veterans can get sent down to field an “NHL lite” team in Bakersfield?
Brandon Sutter
Sam Gagner
Derek Ryan
Adam Erne
No risk in losing any of them to waivers, and a respectable cavalry in the event of injury.
If Ryan starts this year the way he finished last year, in no universe should he be sent down ahead of any of the fringe players for the 12th spot up front. I get his age and that his play could fall off at any point, but given how smart he is on the ice, I see the risk of that happening in short order pretty low. If Sutter makes the team, either those two years off have helped him resuscitate his play to what it was 5-6 years ago, or he’s being kept here on name only. I don’t expect the former to happen and if the latter happens that’s a major fail for management. Ryan and Lavoie should be on the team, the rest in Bako if they are actually signed.
I guess all of them (though I think Ryan is unlikely to be sent down, and would also be a legitimate risk for being claimed).
The only issue is the AHL veteran rule, so there isn’t room for all of them to play games if they’re assigned (when you account for the guys who are already ticketed there).
AHL teams are only allowed to dress 6 skaters with 260+ pro games (NHL, AHL, Eurpoean pro), and one of those 6 needs be be under 320 pro games. Goalies are excluded.
Likely Bakersfield-bound veterans include:
1) Brad Malone 720 pro games
2) Seth Griffith 631 games
3) Greg McKegg 624 games
4) Drake Caggiula 347 games
5) Lane Pederson 298 games
6) Ben Gleason 294 games
7) Markus Niemelainen 289 games
8) Cam Dineen 260 games
Then the PTOs
9) Brandon Sutter
10) Sam Gagner
11) Adam Ernie
There will be injuries in Bakersfield and on the big club, but if healthy they’re already looking at needing to rotate the veterans who play each night even before adding any of the PTOs.
I still do think one or more of the PTOs will be destined for Bakersfield though. I wonder if they end up loaning some of the less likely call-ups (McKegg, Griffith?) to another AHL team to help fit in one or two of the PTO guys?
Of the eighteen (18) skaters (not counting two goaltenders) that teams may dress for a game, at least thirteen (13) must be qualified as “development players.” Of those 13, twelve (12) must have played in 260 or fewer professional games (including AHL, NHL and European elite leagues), and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games. All calculations for development status are based on regular-season totals as of the start of the season.
I can’t imagine that Ryan starts the year on waivers and in Bako.
Of note, even without adding any of the PTO player to Bako, they are already right up against the max “veterans” that can be in the lineup at one time – with the likely Bako roster with the likes of Malone, Hamblin, McKegg, Griffith, Pederson, etc.
I guess not all vets have to play every night but it is a logistic to keep in mind.
Two new stories today:
Edmonton Oilers prospects preseason stock watch
https://theathletic.com/4866501/2023/09/17/edmonton-oilers-prospects-preseason-stock-watch/
The Oilers’ best prospect is Xavier Bourgault. Will he play in the NHL this year?
https://theathletic.com/4870872/2023/09/18/oilers-prospect-xavier-bourgault-training-camp/
Impressions from my trip to Penticton (accompanied by Redbird62):
Akey is the Oiler prospect who got the most attention and with good reasons. Excellent offensive instincts and excellent wheels that allowed him to get back in time after jumping into the play several times. He reminds me a bit of a rover like Scott Niedermayer or Darnell Nurse (in his early days up to about age 20). On the downside, he is pretty high-event as he made a few defensive miscues and took some undisciplined penalties.
Bourgault and Savoie both impressed, but only scored 1 goal between them despite numerous chances that they created.
Petrov was decent in the first game, quite good in the second, but subpar in the third game.
Jayden Grubbe got some love for his defensive work, but Ethan De Jong also plays a similar game. Yes, I know De Jong is 3 1/2 years older than Grubbe, but I am looking forward to see what kind of an impact he makes in Bako.
I would like to see Stonehouse and Sloan signed, but if I had to pick one, I’d lean to Stonehouse, who was more of a play driver.
After Akey, the next best dmen were Wanner and then Johnson/Bernard. Big Noah Ganske didn’t impress me particularly.
Nathan Day wasn’t bad, but I worry he may come from the Keven Bouchard line of Oiler goalie prospects.
Winnipeg was the weakest team in the tourney. Lambert was their best forward. Milic looked strong to my eye. Chaz Lucius physically reminds me of Kyle Connor. He is good, but not Kyle Connor good. Colby Barlow had a couple good moments, but otherwise, I didn’t see him making much of an impact.
Coronato played pretty well for the Flames, as expected, but so did 6’8″ forward Adam Klapka. Recent first round pick Sam Honzek was just ok.
The Nucks were the strongest team. Aatu Raty, Aidan McDonough and Akito Hirose caught my eye.
Lots of ticky-tacky penalties were called throughout the tournament which resulted in lots of powerplay time for Berglund, Savoie, Bourgault and Akey and lots of penalty killing for Bourgault, De Jonge and Grubbe.
Full pass was $115+tax for all 6 games, which was worth it IMO. Crowd sizes were a bit disappointing as they ranged from about 1000-3000, except for this morning’s game which was around 500 or so. Capacity here is 5000.
We saw Kenny Holland, Rick Pracey and what I assume were 3 scouts at the bar. Was tempted to tell him to sign Stonehouse and Sloan, but we let him drink his beer in peace.
Got in some good wine tasting between games. Apparently there is a nude beach in the area, but that will have to wait until next year.
Thanks for the update – I wonder if the 3 games in 4 nights had any effect on the players that hadn’t done that in pro (Akey, Petrov, etc.)
Possibly. However, it was good to see that all the Oilers main prospects (Petrov, Berglund, Savoie, De Jong, Bourgault, Chiasson, Tullio, Akey, Bernard, Wanner) got a push by playing all 3 games. The fact that Stonehouse also got 3 games and Sloan only got 2 may be a tell.
3-in-4’s happen quite often in junior.
3-in-3’s are a thing too, though seldom.
No against 21, 22, 23 year olds.
Great update.
Nobody loves Bourg more than me…but man, sure thought he would produce a bit more here.
As you mention, the field here was not awe inspiring
Rick Pracey was in Oilers Now and ended by specifically talking about procurement via the undrafted free agent market in the CHL and European leagues.
Gotta be honest, I’m not upset that the a direct Pacific division rival of the Oilers has to travel all the way to Australia (and back) and deal with the physical impact that will have.
You know what’s better than getting hurt early in the first rookie tourney game and then missing all of camp and never getting going with further injuries through the season?
Maybe being the Oilers most consistently effective forward through the three games.
Welcome back Carter Savoie – you are going to score 20 in the AHL this season!
Sail on Justin Bailey – heading to Sharks camp on a PTO!
Well, that’s cool.
Got home to watch the Canucks YouTube feed to watch the game. Found it, rewound it and started to play, then 5 minute later got the 1260 experience
Actually had to sign into my YouTube account and the display said it was “Private”.
So I reverted to Plan B, went to Onhockey.tv and clicked on the link and get message This video is private. I can no longer find it, or the other games on the Canucks Site. I blame the Oilers for this.
I understand that it is a business, but no other team does this. I do not live close to Edmonton and I’ve gone to Penticton twice just to watch this tournament. It had good crowds, but not full, probably 70-80%. Judging by the current crowds, it seems 60% might be generous.
So, in limiting access and making it a paid service, who is it affecting? Probably only hard core fans, many, if not all who had to suffer through those extremely tough years. And there were many.
When I arrived China shortly after the 2 Michaels and the teacher and the drug dealer were imprisoned a few years ago, my relatives made jokes about me going to prison. My retort was, I was not afraid, I could easily handle Chinese Prison given the psychological torture I’ve had to endure as a fan of the Edmonton Oilers for so many years….
So if any assclown who works for the Oilers is reading this, thanks for rewarding my 40+ years of loyalty with this bullshit. Please pass this message on to whomever made this decision, please tell them: “You Suck!”
Thanks!
*my wife’s relatives
Just to be clear, I think of all the friends and relatives of players who will never see the light of day in the NHL, or probably not even the AHL along with the most hardcore Oilers fans, who cannot watch this without paying, meanwhile ALL the other teams in league are free (except for the Canucks now for some reason).
I equate this to when they used to blackout CFL games. It is shortsighted and alienating. I can afford it, but I am extremely stubborn, so I’ll find something else to turn to.
Where are you located?
Meh – be stubborn if you want – I purchased Oilers Plus the day it launched and have never regretted it – so much great, well produced, content that should require a fee.
I understand how happy you are with Oilers+, but that is not the point. Basically the games were free for the fans of all the other teams. Even this game, had I watched it live, was probably free on the Canucks channel, but I would have had to take time off work to do so.
My point is, this is the least star-studded team the Oilers has sent and the team is charging, while everything single other NHL team is not.
Why should we have to pay for the exact same telecast that other fanbases get to see for free. I understand it is no skin off your teeth, since you don’t mind paying, but why do this now? Why risk alienating hardcore fans or potentially block new fans or interested observers from watching prospects for this team? This is an easy way to bring in new fans and probably snuffs out future revenue, for what? Failing to grow your fanbase.
From a business perspective it is extremely short-sighted. Potentially the Oilers have lost fans to the Blackhawks, for example….so disappointing to me.
LT thanks for starting up the show again. Nice to have the laid back conversation while i do the miserable things at the gym.
Loved the story at the end, had me laughing. The imagery of your wife chasing down your boy was hilarious.
Got side-track on the benefits of Lavoie as 2LW if he can handle it when OP <correctly> pointed out how bad Hyman-Drai were as a combo. That said – if Lavoie can provide another big body and shot on the 2nd line – that would push RNH to 3LW with Foegle and McLeod (potentially a damn fine 3rd line) and Holloway could be 12th forward (4C) between Janmark and Ryan. No need to worry about a “has been” or “never was” as 12th forward. Holloway would be slotted in a perfectly fine place and he could even take some time in the top 6 if we went with 11 forwards and Lavoie sat.
I just have the game on in the background because, well, lawyering, but Akey just took his third minor and I saw him with some questionable rush defence on the first goal again.
I guess, well, he was just drafted a few months ago, right?
and there is another 49 second later to tie it.
A GREAT job on the forecheck by DeJong who pops one out with a diving poke to Savoie in the slot who buries it.
Bourgault with a beauty sauce pass on the 2 on 1 (left to right) for a Berglund one-timer goal.
Boys down 2-1.
Test.
Holland quote on Ekholm from the 1 on 1 at The Athletic:
I thought he did a great job being a role model and mentor for Bouchard last year. I’m confident he’ll do that with Desharnais and Broberg this year too, especially Broberg given that they’re both Swedes. He’ll be able to help Broberg go through the whole process of establishing himself as an NHL player.
https://theathletic.com/4872310/2023/09/18/oilers-ken-holland-connor-mcdavid/?source=user_shared_article
I’m of the opinion that something has to break <in a good way> to complete the defense. The options are clear:
1) Broberg can handle 2RD with Ekholm – other pairs are Nurse/Bouchard and Kulak/Ceci with Desharnais as 7D
2) we trade some combination of Broberg/Ceci/Kulak/1st round pick for the RD equivalent of Ekholm to play with Nurse. Someone like Pesce but it’s a tough trade. Kulak plus #1 pick is optimal as it gives you this: Nurse/xxx, Ekholm/Bouchard, Broberg/Ceci
3) pick up Dumba for picks/prospects if nothing else works and trade Kulak for picks in a second deal (unless ARZ wants him) to make cap room: Ekholm/Bouchard, Nurse/Dumba, Broberg/Ceci
It’s tough because of overpaying Nurse. Ekholm money is what Dom said first pair non elites get. That 3M would cover the salary of a significant D trading Ceci out or pay for Bouch in a couple
Done now but the next GM has an issue there unless they get very fortunate with the success of emerging players and their salaries or are fearless in of the ‘room’ and players feelings, which they should be
It’s not the cap space. Try find a RH Ekholm at any price. He doesn’t exist with the exception of Pesce who *might* be available as a rental at an exorbitant price. Think what he paid for Ekholm.
I went through the league again today and there is nothing reasonable in terms of availability, performance and price. Guys who are available are old, damaged or over-paid (or all of the above). The only team with extra quality RHD is the Islanders. Only Dobson doesn’t have a NTC and Broberg would have to absolutely blow-up into a potential 1LD to make them even think about it. I know OP doesn’t like Dumba – but at the end of the day – is he better than Desharnais or Broberg on his off-side? That might be all we can expect.
Irony of the day…..Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson one-for-one is not a trade Seattle (or anyone else) would ever make right now.
This is exactly right.
I pick option 1.
I don’t think Dumba is a good acquisition.
I do think there’s more than a few players relieved that Babcock will not be the new sheriff in town. I expect to see the players rally around Pascal Vincent being a fun team to watch and exceeding expectations.
Oh, without question, players will be relieved.
But is a coach’s job to make players relieved? Or to make them succeed?
Pascal Vincent will be coming in right before training camp. The last time I recall a coach coming in on such short notice was Jared Bednar in Colorado.
His team finished with a 22-56-4 record. A .293 winning percentage in the Bettman point era.
A happy worker is a productive worker. I get your a Babcock fan but what he did in Toronto was inexcusable and the modano thing was nasty. I have zero sympathy which is found between shit and syphillis for Babcock. Good riddance so glad Holland couldn’t get him here.
Players can’t really succeed if they don’t trust the coach. This is the same coach who many players before have called out Babcock for his abusive behaviour. Can’t expect players to take the leap of faith into the arms of someone they don’t trust.
With the players union being involved, and reports of the photo sharing/privacy issue being the “tip of the iceberg”, there’s also likely more to this story.
Babcock asked a future star green rookie to rat out his new teammates putting the kid in a terrible no-win position. At least Eakins used his over the hill 5-6 D-man Captain for all the daily and nightly dirt on his teammates.
Wouldn’t be shocked if Katie Strang hits the college and university Babcock coached at an uncovers more dirt. I’m sure players will start speaking out more.
Wild to think this is how he will be remembered in hockey.
I laugh when they keep saying this is old school coaching No this is a jerk manipulating young men. This happens today just as much as 30 years ago in every industry. A percentage of people thrive on having dirt on individuals for use as leverage.
Exactly. Or that this is a softer generation of hockey players who can’t handle tough coaches like Babcock when really, Babcock (aged 60) pissed off players like Modano (53) Franzen (43), Commodore (43) and Chris Chelios (61) said Babcock’s verbal abuse of Franzen was one of the worst things he has seen.
Hard to say it’s on the younger generation when players who are around the same age as Babcock (and older!) don’t like his behaviour and treatment of players.
And to think he did all this after inheriting All Star teams. Babcock was spoon fed a damn gift in Detroit. That was already an All Star franchise on an All Star run. He did nothing. He caused nothing. If anything he stunted those teams with his antics.
He went to Toronto and did the same thing but with younger guys. Ask yourself why Dubas paid so damn much for and then to get rid of Marleau who’s only departing words were effusive praise about TO’s young core. Remember that it was Shanahan who hired Babcock…
This guy was lucky beyond anyone’s wildest dreams and he acted like a school yard bully. He could have been a Legend. Now he’s an asterisk. What a waste.
Forward Tiers outside the top 11:
Tier 1: Options for 12F:
Lavoie, Sutter, Gagner, Erne
Tier 2: Tweeners for call-up (depending on how many Tier 1 are on contract and in the org in the AHL):
Pedreson, Caggiula, Hamblin, Malone
Tier 3: Real propsects that aren’t options in October but may just Tier 2 as options come Jan-March:
Bougault, Tulio
Tier 4: Can’t imagine they are options this season but can’t wait to watch their AHL development:
Savoie, Petrov, Grubbe
Tier 5:
Chiasson
Can’t edit but I forgot to mention, I am one that thinks that Pederson is less substantial than LT.
I recall Holland saying that he and Caggiula were signed for AHL depth.
I see he isn’t a strong defensive player or plus PK guy – he’s an offensive guy that can’t produce offence at the NHL level – I’m not sure that player is needed as 12F/4C.
I think we will all agree that Niemo is likely the first call-up option, in particular if a left D goes down but:
1) I do think that Phil Kemp will be considered if a RD goes does. He is such a smart defensive d-man with under-rated offensive instincts (and transition play) – if he can skate well enough to defend the rush at the NHL level, he has a chance for a career;
2) Noel H. really intrigues me – likely blocked by Niemo to start but I love poaching guys out of the Leafs org that pop and he seems to have this solid 2-2-way game and has adapted and grown his game (become a “protector” out there in some respects). If I’m not mistaken, he’s played alot of the right side as a Marlie and I think he likely fits in to the Condors on the right side along with Kemp and Wanner;
3) Gleason is the most experience of the “new guys” but I just don’t think an offensive/PP specialist with defensive issues is what this team will need, at any point.
Dom Sean and Shayna’s List:
https://theathletic.com/4863183/2023/09/18/nhl-best-players-list-2023-2024-season/
This is like the Bob Mckenzie of pro lists as it’s a huge aggregation. 7 Oilers on it (most of any one team by my count) with pretty accurate descriptions imo (eg. Nurse is overpaid not terrible, Nuge likely won’t hit 100 again, etc.) I like Hyman’s description because I’ve never thought of him that way.
Some bias seeps through but as a tier aggregator it’s a fine exercise.
Thanks for posting.
Funny how the authors rank Bouchard ahead of Nurse, Nuge, and Hyman.
They deduct from Nuge because of his powerplay points, and over-inflate Bouchard … due to his powerplay points.
I hope Nuge does not get too much criticism if (when?) his stats drop this year. But a sure-fire way to answer those critics is with a strong playoff performance which seems to have eluded him so far in his fantastic (and no doubt – frustrating) career
Nuge had a strong playoff in 2022.
16 6-8-14 boxcars with 9 of the points at 5v5. He was outscored 9-10 at 5v5 but he was fed Dzone starts with Hyman, Ryan and Archibald as his most common linemates.
He wasn’t good this past playoff, but I’d gladly take that 2022 performance again in 2024.
Nuge had 8 points in 4 postseason games in 2020. Overall he has a slightly better P/GP rate in the post season than in the regualr season (49 GP, 39 points). Biggest concern is his awful 37% goal share (+19/-33) at 5v5.
For sure the goal share is the concern.
Just had a look thinking it was a lot of Nuge being asked to ‘drive his own line’ but it’s actually been the opposite.
The last 3 playoffs seasons (convenient on NST) Nuge has a 41% goal share (13-19). 1-1 vs. WPG in 2021, 9-10 in 2022 and 3-8 in 2023.
Over the 3 years all the damage was with Draisaitl (0-6 goals, 1 of them was with McDavid and Draisaitl). Nuge was 1-1 with just McDavid, and 12-12 on his own.
Weird, hey? And the Nuge-Draisaitl underlying numbers were fine enough too (49% shots, 53% xGoals). So, uh, stop having a sub-900 PDO you guys.
It’s hard to produce with only 1 line-mate. Thank the Heavens that experiment is over.
It would be nice if everyone could shoot the lights out again- it’s fun – but I just hope every player is focused on winning their minutes, every shift, and do
Nuge had a fantastic playoff the year before last season.
I have to agree, his “skill-set is perfect” – a legit right shot center with size, a history of playing well against tough competition, good FO guy and good PK guy.
Of course, this player was oft-injured and barely hanging on to a career 3 years ago at 31.
I think the organization is really hoping he can turn back the clock and fill that 4C role but, realisitically, can this player make an impact on a contending NHL team. It seems unlikely and it seems, to me, that with a good/great camp, its Raphael Lavoie that is the one player in the battle for 12F that could make a real impact.
Perhaps Sutter is signed to an AHL deal (or even an NHL deal) and is given some time in the AHL to see if he can “find his 28 year old game”?
This is untrue.
I totally agree with you. Who on this board was actually paying attention to Brandon Sutter’s career. Besides that, was then and this is now. How can anyone pass such judgement.
I was…and he was dreadful…too slow for the modern NHL.
CF% 43.9
SF% 45.92
GF% 36.96
xG% 41.92
HDGF% 34.78
All stats at evens.
You must have a lot of idle time on your hands.
I can say that I was paying attention, I thought he would be a good fit before signing in Vancouver. You can find my posts on the subject at the time.
However, in Vancouver he was given extreme Zone Starts/Heavy Lifting and very little help.
And then the injuries took their toll and started to pile up.
Here is a snapshot of his last 7 seasons, let’s call it the heart of his career, the numbers are year, 1st with Pittsburgh, remainder with ‘nucks.
Games Played, % total OZ Faceoffs, % OZ FO’s vs Elites, FO’s per 60 vs Elites, Time On Ice % vs Elites:
14-15 80 34.4 26.7 55.3 33.2
15-16 20 51.7 42.6 52.9 38.2
16-17 81 42.1 40.0 64.0 33.4
17-18 61 22.7 30.5 63.9 50.0
18-19 26 30.7 27.8 64.5 48.8
19-20 44 28.2 24.6 53.8 21.3
20-21 43 34.4 26.7 55.3 33.2
As a comparison, Derek Ryan’s last season resembled the middle 3 seasons shown here. Although the job for the 4C is not to take on the Elites head-on, it does reveal some things.
FWIW, Here are Sutter’s GF & GA/60 vs Elites (1st set of numbers), during the same years compared with Derek Ryan’s (2nd set of numbers).
BS 1.2 to 2.5. DR 3.3 to 3.3
1.9 to 0.6. 3.0 to 3.3
0.3 to 2.1. 3.3 to 3.3
2.2 to 4.1. 3.4 to 1.4
2.8 to 8.3. 1.8 to 2.9
0.8 to 2.3. 1.7 to 3.3
1.1 to 2.8. 3.5 to 3.5
1.4 to 2.9. 2.9 to 2.9
Clearly Ryan is an offensive producer, whereas Sutter is a defensive player. However, in only once instance did Sutter keep his head above water vs Elites, while Ryan has managed the feat in his 2 seasons as an Oiler in his mid-30’s.
In Sutter’s case it was his first season in Vancouver where he was able to keep his head above water and in only a 20 game sample size. Of concern, this was 8 seasons ago.
Thanks for this, but a couple of things:
I guess you mean the face-offs, but Ryan has never had seasons approaching those in terms of %TOI vs. elites.
Ryan’s career has ranged from 21.1 to 28.5% TOI vs. elites.
Sutter has the one season at 21.3% but all the rest of his seasons were between 33.2 and 50.0% (as you show).
And I think you also mis-transcribed Sutter’s GF/GA numbers vs. elites (Ryan’s look correct).
Sutter’s by season were:
1.2 – 2.5
1.9 – 0.6 (20GP)
0.3 – 2.1
1.2 – 0.7
0.8 – 2.3 (26GP)
1.1 – 2.8
1.4 – 2.9
So he was being outscored in the big picture to be sure, but he was actually suppressing offense (for both teams). All of his seasons were under 3.0 GA/60 (4 of Ryan’s were over, though Ryan had a better GF%).
To total up all their TOI vs. elites (what’s available on PuckIQ):
Ryan
GP 500
EL TOI 1277 min
%TOI 23.9%
GF/60 2.91
GA/60 2.96
GF% 49.6%
Sutter
GP 355
EL TOI 1637 min
%TOI 36.4%
GF/60 1.03
GA/60 1.90
GF% 35.0%
Ryan is clearly ‘better’, but I do think there is (was) some value in giving up 1 goal less per hour against elites.
Thanks for cleaning this up, unfortunately I can no longer correct my inevitable mistakes anymore. I should probably buy a computer some day instead of doing this on my phone…
Other factors are probably goaltending & quality of linemates. But certainly Ryan generates a lot more offense and Sutter suppresses it both ways.
So in some ways that is in Sutter’s favour, in terms of his offensive drop-off, where he can’t drop off too much more. The question is, how good are his defensive & FO chops.
I think what this potentially reveals is that he may have a much better chance than many of us think…
As always, thank you!
Yeah, typing that stuff out on a phone is rough, laptop recommended!
It’ll be very interested to see where these hopefuls (young and old) all are once main camp gets under way (just a few more days!).
2017/18 – 61 games
2018/19 – 26 games
2019/20 – 44 games
2020/21 – 43 games (56 game season)
One GF% below 30% and another in the low 30%s in that time.
Often hurt.
Regressing.
No?
I don’t think he was barely hanging onto a career.
He did the dirty work as 3C and played the 6th most minutes among Canuck forwards in 20-21. They re-signed him for 21-22.
His GF% those 4 seasons was 52, 28, 50, 39. H had a 46% shot share that most recent season on a putrid Canucks team.
IMO ‘barely hanging on’ is a significant exaggeration.
I see it as soon as he joined the Canucks he career to a nose dive.
another possibility is he gets a 25-game PTO in the AHL in the manner that Jason Demers did last season.
Lavoie has the more perfect skill set. He just has to deliver it. Will he get the opportunity to succeed or to fail. The Oilers need more players, fewer retreads.
That is an opinion, and I don’t disagree.
At the same time, I think that Sutter has the skill-set the organization itself is look for (that true hard to play against big center with PK and FO ability).
If the bottom six is constructed with
Foegele-MacLeod-Lavoie
Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
It might work fine , as long as they get equal ice time and don’t favor the top six too much.
I have alot of time for Holloway at 4C but I just can’t imagine Woody finding enough minutes for that line to make it a reasonable option.
I do think the 3rd line with McLeod/Foegele is forming a good duo that is developing a niche of playing tough competition well and that the coaching staff may realize this and get them 12-14 5 on 5 minutes per game (and Holloway can be the 3W on that line) but I just don’t see enough minutes for a 4th line and, frankly, I don’t think Janmark and Ryan should get more than 10 minutes at evens and I also think Holloway should play with some more skill.
He’s not a RS C that wins faceoffs at this point
It will be fascinating to see if Rodrigue can put his name in the conversation with Pickard for the goalie call up if there is an injury up top. I have to presume that, subject to regression, Rodrigue gets a true split of the starts but I also presume that, subject to performance again, Woody (and Holland) will defer to the veteran goalie with NHL experience for the call-up if/when needed.
Sid at ON had an article yesterday with info on Broberg’s lack of success on the right side in the SHL and that does have merit but, of course, that was as a teenager in a pro league. My “data analysis” is very high level and cursory but his shot share/possession metrics and goal share range from good to sensational with each of Nurse, Keith, Kulak and Ekholm over the last two season. The small sample with Ekholm is off the page (2-0 goals and 80% expected goals).
Small samples turn in to large samples and I think there is a real opportunity to run this player as 2RD with Ekholm and see if there is something there – if there is, its MASSIVE for this team’s success and ability to add at another position.
I saw that too, but it sounds like the data he presented was from a really small sample of games. Sid’s description was: “This summer, I went back and manually tracked a few microstats in a couple of Broberg’s games in Sweden (in 2020-21).”
It sounds like a considerably smaller sample size (and split between LD/RD) even than what you’ve been posting with lefty Oiler D partners.
While the NHL sample is quite small, it would seem (from the description provided) to be more robust and more relevant than the microstats from a few SHL games.
Broberg got injured at the World Juniors and played hurt (charleyhorse, I think). How many of those games in 20-21 in Sweden on his off side were after the World Juniors after he was coming back from his first significant leg injury that limited his mobilitiy.
Charleyhorses usually take months to fully recover.
Basing any conclusions off ‘a couple of games’ worth of stats is a fools errand. Doubly so if the player was also injured.
Yeah it was a very clear before and after that world junior tournament. And it wasn’t just one injury, he played through multiple injuries in the tournament and came home a wreck. The kid can certainly play through pain. His club team shut him down pretty quickly and he never really regained full form that year. He had some serious highlight reel stuff before christmas that season but that kinda disappeared post injury.
Real screw up from the swedish medical team during the world junior tournament, players want to play, especially an extremely competitive guy who’s the leading man on D in his last shot at the world juniors. As a medical team you have to actively shut him down.
Skellefteå’s team doc was so pissed off about how it was handled when he came back.
Thank you for this, and I do recall you providing this great info in the past.
If I’m not mistaken, I think I remember reading/hearing that Team Sweden did consult with the Oilers re: him continuing to play but I could be mis-remembering.
Just totaled up Broberg’s NHL numbers with Kulak, Nurse, Keith and Ekholm as his partner (across 2 seasons).
139 mintues
SF% 59.2
GF% 61.5 (8GF-5GA)
xGF% 60.8
Ozone start% 46.2
(he was presumably somewhat sheltered from elite competition, but he was not just being fed offensive zone starts).
FWIW.
To me if a player has no obvious big problems and is an elite skater, if a team can’t bring that player along it’s on them. As far as I know he doesn’t have lifestyle problems, trains, has excelled at every level, is big fast and has hockey talent
A good coaching staff can use a player like that
LT, I have to say that I don’t agree that Nuge will get hammered by people if he regresses. I think a large chunk of the fanbase understands last season was likely an outlier. I would also expect that with the potency of the PP and how solid the top 9 should be this season, regression probably still leaves him in the 75-85 point range (health permitting). If you mean the fringe of the fanbase that hammers players over poor play, real or perceived, then sure that could happen. Does that really deserve oxygen though?
Which veterans can get sent down to field an “NHL lite” team in Bakersfield?
Brandon Sutter
Sam Gagner
Derek Ryan
Adam Erne
No risk in losing any of them to waivers, and a respectable cavalry in the event of injury.
If Ryan starts this year the way he finished last year, in no universe should he be sent down ahead of any of the fringe players for the 12th spot up front. I get his age and that his play could fall off at any point, but given how smart he is on the ice, I see the risk of that happening in short order pretty low. If Sutter makes the team, either those two years off have helped him resuscitate his play to what it was 5-6 years ago, or he’s being kept here on name only. I don’t expect the former to happen and if the latter happens that’s a major fail for management. Ryan and Lavoie should be on the team, the rest in Bako if they are actually signed.
I guess all of them (though I think Ryan is unlikely to be sent down, and would also be a legitimate risk for being claimed).
The only issue is the AHL veteran rule, so there isn’t room for all of them to play games if they’re assigned (when you account for the guys who are already ticketed there).
AHL teams are only allowed to dress 6 skaters with 260+ pro games (NHL, AHL, Eurpoean pro), and one of those 6 needs be be under 320 pro games. Goalies are excluded.
Likely Bakersfield-bound veterans include:
1) Brad Malone 720 pro games
2) Seth Griffith 631 games
3) Greg McKegg 624 games
4) Drake Caggiula 347 games
5) Lane Pederson 298 games
6) Ben Gleason 294 games
7) Markus Niemelainen 289 games
8) Cam Dineen 260 games
Then the PTOs
9) Brandon Sutter
10) Sam Gagner
11) Adam Ernie
There will be injuries in Bakersfield and on the big club, but if healthy they’re already looking at needing to rotate the veterans who play each night even before adding any of the PTOs.
I still do think one or more of the PTOs will be destined for Bakersfield though. I wonder if they end up loaning some of the less likely call-ups (McKegg, Griffith?) to another AHL team to help fit in one or two of the PTO guys?
FYI, Dineen doesn’t as a Vet count this season, since he doesn’t have more than 260 games.
https://www.defendthenest.com/2021/07/19/the-veteran-rule/amp/
*EDIT: Dineen doesn’t count as a Vet this season
He’s played exactly 260 pro games (pretty sure). I assumed he would be ‘over 260 games’ as soon as he plays his 1st game this season.
The counter doesn’t start until after the season. So the accumulated games don’t count in season.
Are you sure? Or better, do you have a source?
The AHL site doesn’t mention that (pretty sure), and it doesn’t appear to be mentioned in the article you posted.
It would obviously be helpful if that’s the case though.
I am pretty confident, I posted about this about 2 weeks ago and had counted Dineen, but found rules and it states “at start of season”.
I will look for it.
This is from the AHL FAQ Page:
Of the eighteen (18) skaters (not counting two goaltenders) that teams may dress for a game, at least thirteen (13) must be qualified as “development players.” Of those 13, twelve (12) must have played in 260 or fewer professional games (including AHL, NHL and European elite leagues), and one must have played in 320 or fewer professional games. All calculations for development status are based on regular-season totals as of the start of the season.
Perfect, thanks, I’d missed the bit at the end. Dineen not being considered a veteran this season does make things a little more manageable.
It’s funny because that’s the kind of question that nobody knows until it happens. Yet there’s people who already know.
I can’t imagine that Ryan starts the year on waivers and in Bako.
Of note, even without adding any of the PTO player to Bako, they are already right up against the max “veterans” that can be in the lineup at one time – with the likely Bako roster with the likes of Malone, Hamblin, McKegg, Griffith, Pederson, etc.
I guess not all vets have to play every night but it is a logistic to keep in mind.
The most important question is which of them wants to spend a winter in Bakersfield?