Photo by Connor MahThe Edmonton Oilers are talented, stubborn and currently getting outworked and outsmarted. The Edmonton Oilers are not big on delayed gratification, preferring to have their dessert first. The Edmonton Oilers power play isn’t saving them this season. The new defensive deployment isn’t working. For Jay Woodcroft, the answers need to come soon.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- New DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
- Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: NAS, PHIL (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NYR, CAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-2-0, 12 points in 8 games
- Actual October results: 1-3-0, 2 points in 4 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 1-3-0, 2 points in 4 games
The month is off the rails, but that month is October. Plenty of time to get things straight. If it helps get the roster straightened away, then good things can come from this early season frustration. I think the Oilers may benefit long term from this struggle, although that doesn’t help fans deal with the mess.
THE NUMBERS
I thought the best line was the Ryan McLeod trio, and the numbers agreed. I mentioned at the beginning of the season that Zach Hyman performed so well with Connor McDavid it seemed madness to break them up for a player who didn’t get on the ice much last year. I think it’s also time we acknowledge some of the veterans who were hurt entering training camp or had long periods of inactivity last season are slow to roll so far in 2023-24.
- Evander Kane 1-6 on-ice five-on-five goals
- Evan Bouchard 2-6
- Connor Brown 0-3
- Brett Kulak 1-4
- Connor McDavid 2-5
Kane specifically (but not exclusively) has been a draggin’ the line, and his expected goal share (34 percent) is the lowest on the team. Early days, but he and Connor Brown aren’t filling the roles intended so far. We’ll need 20 games, but the coach is already dealing. Some of these veterans are bad.
Evan Bouchard is lost in the supermarket and for young defenseman the elevator shaft sometimes goes all the way to the dungeon. Brett Kulak has struggled too, as has Connor McDavid. I suspect both will recover, losing Kane from his line should help 97. Here are five-on-five on-ice goals:
- Connor McDavid 0-4 w/o Leon
- Leon 2-2 w/o McDavid
- 97&29: 2-1
- Nuge sans 97 and 29: 2-1
- Ryan McLeod sans 97, 29 and 93: 0-1
The McDavid solo number is an extreme outlier placed against his career, I would expect that to correct in a heartbeat. Everything else looks fine, you’d like the McLeod line to score. Here are the five-on-five team numbers
- Corsi for: 56 pct (No. 5 in the NHL)
- SA-60: 30.6 (No. 21 in the NHL)
- Shot share: 46 pct (No. 25 in the NHL)
- GA-60: 3.54 (No. 28 in the NHL)
- Goal share: 35 pct (No. 30 in the NHL)
- Expected goals: 53 pct (No. 14 in the NHL)
These are not the numbers of a champion, but the sample is small.
I’ve said this before, and many of you didn’t believe me. Jay Woodcroft, who I believe is a fine coach, is at least a little vulnerable at this time. Expectations far outweigh results. I think he’s been unlucky in that Kane, Ekholm and McLeod are coming back from injury and the growing pains of Evan Bouchard have also had an impact. The goaltending is once again a concern, too. Your basic fucking nightmare if you’re Woodcroft. I believe he’ll figure it out, but the restful sleeps won’t come until summer.
It’s Friday!! We’ll have two hours of pre-weekend fun noon to 2pm today on Sports 1440. Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports will be on to talk Oilers, and Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff will also chime in. We’re at Sports 1440, noon to 2 today. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
For the second straight night, Day makes the OHL Save of the Night.
Dayman (ah-ah-ah)
Fighter of the Nightman (ah-ah-ah)
Champion of the Sun (ah-ah-ah)
You’re a Master of Karate
And friendship
For Everyone
The funniest episode of anything ever in the history of time.
I now expect you to post this every time Day wins.
McDavid is 0-4 goals in 22 minutes without Drai this season.
He has been off from the opening puck drop in Vancouver.
He seems to be a bit off attitude wise as well – not giving his goalie kudos when he saves Connor’s ass (after a terrible slot giveaway), etc.
McDavid has mostly played with Kane. Kane might be the biggest worry this season for me. Small sample size alert, but Kane has the worst expected goals on the team, 34%
Kane’s troubles include things unrelated to his injury, such as foot speed. He has been flat out terrible.
Goaltending is already a huge question mark, so if you add Ceci upgrade and top six winger, that’s a lot to hope to acquire at the deadline.
McDavid is 1-1 goals away from Evander Kane in 18 minutes.
McDavid has been very “meh” all season long and he’s done a few things on the ice away from the play that I find somewhat uncharacteristic.
Summarizing!
Day picked up another W tonight, stopping 30 of 33 in a 4-3 win. Like last night, he earned 1st star honours.
Copponi had a power play goal.
Stonehouse had an aPPle along with a game-high 9 SOG.
Akey and Lachance did not earn soup.
The Kitchener Rangers killing it.
Vancouver 2nd round pick Hunter Brzustewicz leading the OHL In scoring.
The right shot D has 5 goals and 19 points in 9 games played.
Post this on a Canucks blog please.
Will do.
yeah right
and his career is now shot
It’s very early days, not sure if anyone cares or remembers, but I’ve been going on about predicting Connor Ingram to have a breakout season. Sean Durzi too.
My boy Durzi is leading the Coyotes in toi/g at a shade under 24 minutes. 2 goals and 1 assist in four games played.
My sleeper goalie pick, Connor Ingram, has a .926 over 2 games played.
I’ll check in again after 30 games.
A little help on the waiver wire?
https://www.tsn.ca/columbus-blue-jackets-place-2018-first-rounder-liam-foudy-on-waivers-1.2023644?tsn-amp
He’s apparently a fast skater. He’s listed as a centre, does he actually play that position?
Nope. 19 faceoffs in 90 career NHL games (and 26.5% on those 19 FOs)
Thanks.
Holland likes speed, but since he’s a winger, I doubt we make a claim,
The Oilers have fast skaters. What they don’t have is a big volume shooting one shot scorer? Oops….they do have one of those but they have buried him in Bakersfield, because for some reason he has not “erne-ed” any love from the coach.
I’m with you here. While Kostin had an unsustainable shooting percentage last season, he was still a very talented shooter who could beat an NHL goalie clean shooting from a distance. It was nice to have a shooter in the bottom six.
With Kostin gone, there’s no one in our bottom six who can shoot.
I like the look of Holloway with McLeod and Foegele, but that line really needs a shooter.
It’s killing me that Woodcroft won’t try Holloway-McLeod-Lavoie.
Is the solution:
-bag skate and the power of shame
-help for the goalie coach
-new third line: 91-71-28
-old D pairings: 25-5 / 14-2
Start with not playing Bouchard vs top 2 lines 5 v 5 at all costs.
Or just don’t play him at all and go with 5 forwards on the PP
Bag skates are so rare these days and almost no chance they’d it with one day between games.
The goalie was not near the top of the list of issues last game.
Those old D-pairings are the same pairings from the last 3 games, no?
How can they possibly be tired?
I never said they were tired but a bag skate the day after travelling home from Philly and the day before another game seems, well, not conducive to good legs, right?
they have not used their legs yet so why care if not conducive to good legs?
Winning a hockey game would be a reason to care I think.
There is sure to be some significant correction of the wunderkids numbers that help right the ship a great deal…It’s the more subtle inneficiencies that i find concerning:
1. Although no goals have been scored against in the 24 minutes Adam Erne has seen ice: The -10 shot differential (SF 4/SA 14) should still hopefully be alarming. Outside his career year, his last year in Tampa (2019), there is nothing i can see that suggest this guy is anything but a below replacement level piece. Even in that career year the only major difference is clearly more puck luck than anything.
I’m sure many presently don’t consider this to be a major problem but 8 minutes a night going towards someone who stands next to no chance of breaking Even – LET ALONE any chance to possibly outscore – Just seems senseless.
2. When you have over 15 million allocated to your top 2 LHD, there is next to no way one can justify solidly paying a vet to play 3rd paiting LHD – WHILE FORCING A PROMISING BLUE CHIP PROSPECT TO PLAY NEAR EXCLUSIVELY ON HIS OFFSIDE!
It’s madness. When you add in likelyhood that Broberg will ultimately be held more accountable by rotating him out for vinny D while kulak stays in…its boggles the mind.
3. Not intentionally starting season running bare bones level roster.
Roster size # teams start
23/23 15
22/23 12
21/23 3 (COL, EDM, TOR)
20/23 2 (LAK,OTT)
Pretty sure a lot of gms strongly intended to start with no less than 22 for a goid reason.
This is biggest issue for me. EVEN at 21 basically cross fingers and hope for best. No fresh legs available on forwards unless LTIR occurs.
This was starting to baddly play out in early going of last season. Roster was handcuffed until Kane’s injury. I even stayed at that time and still I believe:
At least with regards to regular season results. That injury was beneficial to results.
Add those up
On roster
-Niemo
-2 Forwards with combined cap hit of 2 million or less
Off
-Kulak
-Erne
Oh forgot one issue
4. Brown’s bonuses should have clearly included a more nuanced incentive structure. He should have had to bet a bit more on his performance considering all things…IMO
Brown and Erne should be in Bakersfield.
Who does Paul Coffey like as a coach?
It seems obvious to me. Huge expectations through camp, arrive at the season deflated because they were mentally preparing for Game 1 of the playoffs. McDavid down, and maybe especially. All between the ears with this group. Trick is to not overthink, just work harder. Being out worked all over the ice.
Coach has officially lost it.
Players with at least 1 point.
EDM 8
———————
VGK 20
LAK 16
COL 16
DAL 12 (only 3GP)
It would seem depth may be an issue.
we all know your issues, thank you 🙂
FTW
Cheers.
Why can’t he figure out to roll out 97, 29, and 93 at C??
Other squads can’t match that.
Eichel
Stephenson
Karlsson
Roy
While the Oilers have the edge at the top, if you take 93 off the wing, the Knights will kill you with Stone, Marrchessault, Barbashev and Howden.
Its becoming very, very apparent they don’t have any interest in playing those players at their natural positions.
It sure would be novel to take a stab at this for say 20 games.
So once Gagner is up and able to skate Holloway is back in Bakersfield marinating with Lavoie until Holland can make a trade for the elusive Burt to partner up with Ernie on the 4th line.
Copponi opens the scoring with a PP marker.
The House of Stone has a primary aPPle.
Bouchard was bad enough, and the Oilers have 7 NHL D, that Bouchard should sit for one game and think about it.
If EB isn’t sick or injured he should sit a game. Sometimes messages need to be sent.
If he’s sick or injured , and I’m not suggesting that he is, he should be rested until he’s able to perform better.
I am a huge Bouchard fan. But, this is not, or should not be, out of the question.
My guess is Woody is fearful of the impact to the PP.
Meh – Kulak has been quite terrible as well through the four games and doesn’t have the ability to “make up for his errors” with positive offensive plays.
I’m fine with moving Bouch down to 3RD for a bit and trying Broberg with Ekholm.
-load up mcdavid and drai ✅
-play them 25 minutes ✅
-no power play time for anyone else to build confidence ✅
-demote a player who if anything deserves a promotion✅
-give RNH poor linemates✅
-have a player who brings zero to the game on the roster✅
yeah sitting Broberg for the Philly game sure wasnt brotherly love.
Woodcroft wouldn’t play Lavoie in February, you know, because playoffs.
Woodcroft wouldn’t play Laoive in October, you know because “I love useless veteran fillers”, because other loser coaches played him in the NHL at some point.
Ditto Holloway.
Ditto Broberg.
Hey Jay. You learnt the WRONG lesson from losing to the eventual champion. You were NOT CLOSE, and cannot just tinker. The correct lesson is that the team was not yet good enough and need more players contributing, and that means one has to invest time in the best prospects at the NHL level.
This. 100%. Woodcroft is coaching himself out of a job.
Hi Dylan – we have really liked your game for the first 4 games here. A lot.
But, we would like to put you down the 4th line where you will get to play with a trusted
veteran plumb.I mean, .winger -Adam Erne.
Dylan smiles back at Woody. Thanks him.
The young prospect walks away and pulls out his cell phone to call his agent.
Kidding, I think.
Holloway on the 4th line? Really…..Woody?
What’s the problem? Holloway is being moved to centre…at least for the practice.
Some -may – consider a move to the 4th line ( even playing C) a demotion.
Your mileage may vary.
Is your complaint that he should be 1, 2 or 3 centre or that he shouldn’t be moved to centre?
Out of all the forwards on the team, he is one of the very few to deserve a promotion up to lines 1 or 2.
What do you envision Dylan getting accomplished playing with Adam Erne…
Per Stauff:
Hyman-McDavid-Draisaitl
Janmark-RNH-Foegele
Kane-McLeod-Brown
Erne-Holloway-Ryan
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais/Broberg
Skinner
Campbell
————————-
Janmark?
Why not try Holloway there?
Why would the coach continue to play McDavid and Drai together when they aren’t scoring together, let alone outscoring together?
Split those two, move Janmark back down and move Holloway up.
has woodcroft lost the plot. that is the question.
What on earth has janmark done to deserve a promotion. Likewise why is holloway being stapled to the 4th line when he has been one of the most consistent players effort wise this season.
This is highly frustrating.
Holloway on the 4th line?
Possible they don’t want to put too much pressure on Holloway. If they elevate and he struggles against tougher comp then they have to work to re-establish him.
Holloway has played better at centre and Kane/Brown (gulp, 97/29?) have shown they need fourth line support.
Seniority over performance. The youngers, Holloway, Broberg, and Desharnais have been good and better, and they get demoted.
The seniores were not good enough for two years Jay.
So McDavid needs two comfort blankets now.
Mcdavid playing better is the most important thing that needs to happen on this team at this time.
Team defense and getting more players involved and contributing if the most important thing.
The team should be able to win NHL games as a team playing the system with effort and determination.
Depends on ice time. If Holloway gets 10% less ice time but plays at centre with Ryan instead of Mcleod, on the basis that the team considers him a better player than Janmark, that is not so bad.
I’d have more time for Holloway-RNH-Foegele as second line as at least Holloway and Foegele were going well with McLeod as the 3rd line.
Erne needs to be sent down, he’s not good enough for the NHL. Bring up Malone or Lavoie dependent on what we think we need most, a dude that can play 4th line centre and PK, or a big bodied sniper of a winger.
I do see the logic in moving Kane and Brown down as they’ve not produced thus far – and I’m also fine giving them a pass as they’re both coming off pretty rough injuries. Janmark on the second line though, that’s baffling to me.
Holloway has looked good; let’s reward him with 4th line duties and 6 minutes.
What if it is 10 minutes?
What can Dylan do with Adam Erne?
In 6 minutes or 8 minutes or even 10 minutes?
It’s pretty obvious to me… Holloway’s hair looked waaaaayyy too good when his helmet got knocked off in the third period just before he blocked the shot with his ankle. He obviously wasn’t working hard enough to work up a sweat so he’s being demoted.
If they lose tomorrow night, guess we can look forward to Erne being on 1st or 2nd line.
Wood has lost it.
Janmark on the second line? Oh my stomach’s bubbling.
From Stauffer:
Hyman-McDavid-Draisaitl
Janmark-RNH-Foegele
Kane-McLeod-Brown
Holloway-Ryan-Erne
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Desharnais/Broberg
…
Is Woodcroft drunk? RNH is cooked with those wingers, and good luck getting any scoring support beneath 18-97-29. One line team with swiss cheese D making boneheaded plays… this won’t end well.
IMO 55 should be in the top 6 based on his play. Wouldn’t hurt to go 11/7 and keep Erne out of the lineup, though after last night I’d give Bouchard a day to think shit over in the pressbox.
Clear that Kane and Brown don’t have their legs yet, but Brown’s fancies are pretty decent. McLeod has been wonderful on the forecheck and retrieving pucks. Doesn’t know what to do with that puck when he gets it.
Two shooters with McLeod and Brown-Kane against Middle/Gritensity comp isn’t a bad bet. I’d posit this is the most skill McLeod has played with.
Jets 2nd line runs Perfetti-Namestikov-Ehlers. Nuge’s trio isn’t outgunned.
Yes to all of this. Plus McLovin is looking better than usual.
Not that Brown is a ‘shooter’ but there’s zero question that would be the most skill McLeod has played with as a center.
Last 82 games for each player:
McLeod 82 14-16-30
Kane 82 36-28-64
Brown 82 15-32-47**
** that with Brown’s last 8 games being 0-0-0
Brown’s last 82 games as a Senator looked like 82 22-34-56
I still stand by Kessel @ $1m > Brown @ $1m (1 for 1) let alone the $3m Brown deletes from the cap next season.
Oiler fans : Lowetide, without knowing precisely what the problem is, would you say it’s time for us fans to crack each other’s heads open and feast on the goo inside?
Lowetide : Not on my site, boys.
This lineup feels stale. It’s almost as if they went through an entire meaningless training camp, being given jobs regardless of performance. Raphael Lavoie seemed to win a job based on merit, but was sent down. Adam Erne was almost invisible, yet was gifted an NHL contract. This set a bad precedent for the season to come.
Now there is news Sam Gagner will be starting in the AHL. Just what this team needs. Another slow, old veteran.
Hypothesis:
The change in d-structure, while not an issue in goals against, involves new muscle memory being formed. In a game as fast as hockey (or any sport at the highest level really) the difference between good and great teams could be a fraction of a second.
Coaches try repetition of systems or plays so they become automatic. Don’t think. Do. Tony Dungy is quoted in The Power of Habit as saying it took a few years before his Buccaneers (Colts?) stopped thinking and started doing.
So while I don’t believe the d-structure has been an issue, I believe it’s causing the players to falter in some split second decisions. Hockey Sense some call it. Awareness. Pick your poison.
Example – Bouchard. He was already a below average defender. Asking him to change the way he plays and translate how that feeds into the parts of the game he has the most value (offense) has proven difficult.
If anyone has a way to test this, I’m all ears.
The defensive breakdown haven’t really had anything to do with systems play, but with effort and battle. There was no systems decision to be made or difference in systems decision to be made. All of Bouchard’s breakdown’s are individual effort breakdowns. Nurse’s was just a massive mental mistake. Ekholm and Kulak’s primarily due to rust.
My very first sentence makes that exact point.
“The change in d-structure, while not an issue in goals against”
The hypothesis is it isn’t breakdowns, it’s the lack of muscle memory from learning a new system that has trickled down to other parts of player’s game causing mental errors. Too much thinking, not enough reacting.
Will it blend?
Holloway McDavid Draisaitl
Foegele Nuge Hyman
Kane McLeod Brown
Erne Janmark Ryan
Nurse Ceci
Ekholm Broberg
Kulak Bouchard
— I read part of a quote where our coach said something about the “effort”
— There have been some posts and comments that allude to this as well
— Lack of effort as a reason for the results to date is just a lazy conclusion. In the absence of having solutions or ideas it’s one thing for posters to conclude “lack of effort”. No offense to anyone on this blog but we do t know what we don’t know. And that’s a lot.
— But for the coach to say so is worrisome. This team wants to win a cup. Their core is in their prime. They showed up early and are in shape.
— So besides being trapped into making inferences on a very small sample size or that the other teams have had better systems or have out-scouted us, or are better prepared when the puck drops : it’s utter nonsense to suggest this team 4 games in “isn’t trying enough”
— Come on : better analysis and remedy is needed from our coach than the madding crowd on Lowetide.
OK finished rant.
Battle drills. The winners get to play next game.
There was no compete, no second effort, no urgency.
Ok, we can make this urgent, how would you like to sit the next game. Or Brown, how are your bus riding skills? Are they in game shape? Because your hockey skills are not. Bouch, grab some popcorn, you are sitting Saturday.
Coaching matters. I have previously stated my support for Woody, but I’m beginning to believe he may not have the answers that this team needs. However… I abhor the proposition of hunting for, changing the coach, and altering on-ice strategies. We may be in for some troubling times… trying to be patient, it’s still very early, but feel like… here we go again.
I have not liked Evander Kane’s play for some time now going back to the playoffs…and Connor Brown has been really, really close to being – invisible.
But as others have mentioned, there seems to be a very general malaise with a lot of this team with, I think, – very notable – exception of McLeod and Holloway, Foegele.
I agree with your assessment. Therefore, they need a sparkplug on each line:
Holloway – McDavid – Hyman
Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Foegele
Kane – McLeod – Brown
This gives Kane and Brown a little shelter without actually taking them out of the lineup, which would be detrimental to the goal of getting them up to speed.
Fully on board with this exact construction and for the sound reasons you have outlined.
barring injury, why not give these line combos some time, like some serious time; 3, 5, maybe 8 games, maybe more…..and as many posters have already pointed out wouldn’t Lavoie be a better choice than Erne?
In last night’s game there was a shift where the play died on Brown’s stick multiple times. Gain entry, puck goes to Brown, it’s immediately turned over and flipped out by Philly. Oilers collect, gain entry, puck goes to Brown, and the same thing happened again.
His history is that of an effective hockey player, so I’m chalking it up to him only just starting up after that major injury.
The problem with shopping in the Connor Brown aisle is he has never crested 45 points in the NHL and is coming off major knee surgery i.e. the type of injury that greatly effects cutting and pivoting activities.
The idea that CB would be equivalent to Hyman is incredibly lofty. Holland was led down a path that he never should have taken.
Why not look for a shooter i.e. actually change the makeup of the top six with unique weapons?
I noticed this as well….his long absence from the game can be seen.
In hindsight, him being placed on line 1 was really miscasting him.
Brown may take a good 15 games to get up speed. That is why he belongs on the 3rd line for now.
Brown may take 2-3 months to get up to speed but, once he gets the trust, etc. back in his knee, there SHOULD be no physical fall-off from pre-surgery – that is my understanding of ACL surgery these days along with the accounts that it was a very clear ACL tear with no damage to the meniscus or any other area.
I spent all off-season saying he should be on McDavid’s wing or even locked in to the top six.
I know ….I know …still really early.
Take a look again at our murder’s row of opponents here:
Vancouver
Vancouver
Nashville
Philadelphia
Vancouver is without a win since they have seen us.
Edmonton usually plays down to the level of the competition. And turn things up against top teams. Same as it ever was, unless it’s Nashville, it just doesn’t seem to matter. What they really need to do is turn it up every game regardless of the opposition, or else they’re going to continue to embarrass themselves on a nightly basis.
True.
I find it frustrating to see both LV and Colorado ground and pound lessers to start the year.
I would have assumed LV in particular would have been suffering from some sort of Cup hangover.
Nope.
shitting the bed against the Flyers is leading me closer to the panic button. I’m not sure what the team is missing, besides a reliable goalie, a healthy Ekhom, Brown, and Kane. Maybe the latter 2 need to go on LTIR
They win the next 3 and they are in fine shape. The panic button should be reserved for 10+ games if they are well below .500% at that point.
So you think they’ll win the cup without home ice then?
Also, Deshairnais is not an NHL defenseman. Way too slow.
If Kulak were his normal self, Desharnais would be fine. Desharnais is also fine with Broberg.
It is nuts to pressbox Broberg.
Broberg in the pressbox is bizarre. He has been one of the best dmen this season.
agree
“It is nuts to pressbox Broberg.” 100% agree! A decision made which wasn’t based on winning. This is a habit with teams and coaches who don’t truly prioritize and internalize winning.
When I heard Desharnais was in, my hope was that Broberg would stay in, but on the left side. Alas, it was not to be.
Lots of talk about the defensive zone structure and the “box plus 1” but the defensive zone structure wasn’t an issue on any of the goals against last night though, right?
I mean:
1) First goal – it was a 2 on 2, there is a clear pick that wasn’t called, Kulak couldn’t recover and Deharnais was exposed.
2) Second goal – Lazy passing by Drai (that was a poor pass to Bouch) and a terrible play by Bouch to give the puck away from a quick strike tap in goal.
3) Bad giveaway by McDavid on the PP, Bouch maybe could have challenged the shot better but Campbell gave up one he needed to stop.
4) Bouch cheated to the boards, left the middle exposed and a long-strike pass for a breakaway.
None of the goals against were the result of the defensive zone structure, right?
It’s the two E’s, effort & execution.
Clearly the issues are transition issues. Puck management. I don’t think they have given up many goals on the cycle this year. Mostly jailbreaks.
This
Happy Birthday Evan Bouchard.
Tick tock.
With 93 points in 188 games, Bouchard is only 93 points & 186 GP ahead of where Brogan Rafferty was on his 24th birthday.🤓
One was an undrafted free agent while the other was a top 10 pick in the NHL draft.
One was touted be Norris quality, the other a draft bust….
Oh look. Its begging for attention again.
Gives new meaning to the phrase “Bouch bomb.”
Considering Bouchard is one of the biggest draft wins for the Oilers in recent years (at the very least comparatively), I find it strange you insist he’s terrible, a bust and try to taunt everyone about it. You make a lot of good points, but this is the clearest example of blatant trolling I can see, and it makes me disappointed in you…
Bouchard was drafted 10th overall, and he’s 9th in scoring for his draft year. The only Defenceman drafted afterwards that has more points is Noah Dobson. Bouchard has more points than Rasmus Sandin, K’Andre Miller, Adam Boqvist and Sean Durzi.
More notable is that Bouchard has passed Ty Smith in terms of scoring and ability as if Smith were a house on the road.
But you knew that.
Last fall: “Bouchard is not an NHL player”
This off-season: All sorts of posts about how expensive he’ll be on his next contract.
This fall: “Tick Tock”
Its simply anti-Oiler narratives, that’s all.
I thought Ceci played a decent game last night and, to be honest, on the season, I think Nurse has been not bad – yes, a couple highly visible errors but, overall, he’s playing a fine game.
Bouchard is clearly struggling early and I think it may be time to re-set Bouch on the third pairing:
Nurse/Ceci
Ekholm/Broberg
Kulak/Ceci
Deharnais
To be honest, Kulak is also struggling hard but this team is looking somewhat slow and we know Kulak will get his game together – he has a history of slow starts and fast finishes as an Oiler.
Assuming you are not cloning Ceci & mean Kulak/Bouch on the third pairing.
Wow!! With both of Kulak & Bouchard struggling the way they are that would be a terrifying 3rd pair. Who knows maybe they deserve each other.
Oops, yes, that is correct.
How often does a ‘healthy scratch’ leapfrog – not just getting into the lineup- but up to the
2nd pairing?
Who cares
Broberg was only a healthy scratch because the coach was rewarding seniority over performance.
Broberg should never have been a healthy scratch to start with, right?
Over Adam Erne , he’ll no. No idea what the plumber brings…
Over Vinny, I agree with Woody on this one.
Broberg played well against Nashville and was plus 2 (and provided a clean 1:30 on the PK) in a win over Nashville.
I’m not sure why Broberg needed to come out of the lineup.
Very fair.
I said before the season when everyone was talking about how determined they were and how they were committed to playing the right way and cutting down goals against and the lessons they’ve learned, etc., etc., that “talk is great” but lets see them do it on the ice.
If anything, they are playing more immature than last season, they are not showing the consistent commitment to do the little things that are required to be a tough team to play against and, frankly, pretty much all of the top players and the leadership group are playing below expectations.
McDavid has been very “meh” through four games and, frankly, was awful last night. Drai had the big game against Nashville but, really, overall, he’s been “just OK”. I’ve liked Nuge generally but he struggled last night. Bouch has had a terrible run of defensive play games, and I’m one that has defended his developing defensive game. Frankly, Nurse has been the best of the bunch – he has made 2 highly visible errors but, overall, Nurse’s game has been fairly good.
I’ve seen effort from Evander Kane but he’s struggling to make anything happen. He actually tried last night. As Bruce M. pointed out, he had 5 of the Oilers shots, he had 8 shot attempts, he had the only two takeaways for the entire team and a couple of hits. Don’t get me wrong, he was slow and not really much of a factor but that’s one of the better “traditional” stat lines of the bunch.
The Oilers are finding out that every team in the league is even more determined and probably more committed to playing the right way. The Oilers are a veteran team they should know better. However, it’s just like LT says, “Same as it ever was”.
Agreed. Same as it alway was – immature game. Sloppy turnovers, lazy backchecking and what EB was doing out there.
I’ve seen you mention this a few times but I don’t think the Oilers’ issue is that teams are trying harder against them than they do against other teams.
I think the Oilers’ issues is the Oilers are playing like shit.
I was one of the first to note that the Oilers are getting long in the tooth on the wings.
With Evander Lucic and Connor Brown, those two both look cooked. Jettisoning Brown wouldn’t be Holland’s style, but it’s worth contemplating. Maybe worth taking Lavoie out for a test drive.
These are interesting times. Ceci and Desharnais are both immobile. The solution here is to not play Desharnais.
For the fourth line, you could start by flushing Erne.
The Oilers look like a team that needs another top six forward, top four d, and a starting goalie.
I thought Vegas was getting old and bad in hurry in 2021-22.
Vegas has only 3 forwards who are 30 or over.
Oilers have 5.
The oldest Vegas forward is 32 and is on an expiring contract.
Thankfully, their team is entirely composed of forwards. Just as it was in 2021-22.
That short handed goal was a killer last night. They had just gotten back into the game, had a power play and get scored on.
Regardless of whose fault it is, Campbell has to stop that puck. He should have been aware that RNH took away the pass. If he focuses on the shooter there he stops it.
Also thought goal 1 was a penalty against Philly.
They’ve played and lost against three teams with hard nosed coaches (torts, tocchett). I do think those teams sometimes have the tendency to overperform early then fade as the players can’t keep the pace up.
I still have faith, the worm will turn. Bring on a 5 game win streak please.
I thought the breakouts were atrocious last night. I kept seeing the same crap as last year with the top line. All three forwards at centre or at Philly’s blue line waiting for a pass. The pass would be tipped or picked off and go the other way. All this talk about playing better defensively and nothing has changed.
Yeah. Bouch has missed hard on some of his breakouts but it’s not always on him. Forwards not supporting the D has been a thing with this team forever.
Woody AND LT dropping F-bombs?
You know something is not right in Oilerville.
Just a mammoth gap between CF% & SF%, over 10%. Only 4 games & will not sustain, but what does it mean?
It means that the Oilers are doing a terrible job at both gbetting their shots through, & preventing their opponents from doing likewise. Let’s take last night’s game as an example, Oilers out-Corsi’d Philly 45-35 at 5v5 but got outshot 18-27.
Put another way, just 40% of Oilers’ shot attempts were on target, vs. 77% for Philly.
At 5v5 Philly blocked 18 shots, Edmonton just 2. That’s partly “compete level” (or utter lack of same), but largely due to simply getting beaten for open looks.
Which brings us to Fenwick, where the Flyers converted 27/33=82% of their unblocked shot attempts into actual shots on net, the Oilers just 18/27=67%.
Year to date: Oilers have had 57 of their 184 shots (31%) blocked, while themselves blocking just 25 of the 142 SA against (18%), Of the remaining attempts (Fenwick) the Oilers have missed the target 45 times, their opponents just 22. Literally twice as many misses.
Overall EDM has converted a bit under 45% of their SA into SOG, their opponents a ghastly 67%. Of the two horrible numbers, it’s the latter that concerns me more; Oilers giving up way too many open looks & uncontested shots.
That extends into the percentages bracket, where EDM has scored on just 7.3% of their shots on goal to 11.6% for their opponents. Uncontested shots = higher percentage shots, who knew?
Finally, expressed as 5v5 Goals per Corsi, the Oilers round up to 3.3%, their opposition rounds down to 7.7%. Some of that is surely random distribution, but my take is a large part of it is that Edmonton’s opponents are doing a WAY better job of defending/contesting shots than are the Oilers themselves.
So the big question is why? Is it change of system, injuries , coaching, don’t give a shit it’s early?????
Every team in the league is pumped to play against McDavid & Draisaitl even more so than the Stanley cup champion VGK. No team wants to be embarrassed. Especially their goaltenders.
Little bit optimistic, but the phenomenon you mention was not an issue last season.
Using % to estimate (all strengths):
23-24
CF% 55.6
FF% 52.5
SF% 49.2
GF% 39.8
22-23
CF% 52.1
FF% 51.6
SF% 51.7
GF% 55.9
It’s not ‘who they are’ and is likely to correct.
My commitment to not freaking out this year is being tested but I made that commitment for a reason: this team DOES have an identity, and nothing is out of place here people.
As LT says, they want their candy first and they always need a bit of a whooping in the standings before getting going. Acceptable? Not to them, ever, which is why they will turn it around. Lessons will be learned. Will it cost them the division? I don’t know, will VGK go 1-3 over some course of the season? You know the answer to that. Does anyone expect them to go 20-60-2? You know the answer to that.
Better days ahead. Soon, mark my words.
Stanley Cup or bust and they’re playing shit hockey against woeful competition.
If previous seasons are any indicator, these better days you speak of will arrive around February.
I wonder if Connor is injured or sick?
He has definitely been leading the underperforming parade.
Yeah he’s 2GF 5 GA at 5v5. At least we know that will correct itself. McDavid has never been in the negative in his career.
I assume Skinner plays tomorrow. Hopefully he gives the team some saves.
McDavid took a hit in the collision with Kane, and Philly scored the game winner in the aftermath as every Oiler on the ice froze watching McDavid rather than, you know, the puck.
97 came back with a good shift but disappeared after that, other than throwing the puck away on the 3-1 that effectively ended Edmonton’s involvement in the game. Also another uncharged turnover later that led directly to a Philly breakaway off of what had been an o-zone face-off for the Oil. (Only seen on replay because Sportsnet missed yet another live faceoff.)
McDavid’s individual numbers last night: 0 shots, 0 hits, 0 takeaways, 0 blocked shots. His only crooked (?) numbers on the event summary were a missed shot & a giveaway.
Did of course get an assist on Edmonton’s lone goal. But he had very, very little impact on this game & to my eye tuned right out of it in the third, as did many of his mates.
Looked it up, McDavid’s last game with 0 shots & 0 hits was in March of 2018. He’s only had 5 games without a shot in the last 5 seasons.
Stomach is officially turning nauseaous at this…cannot afford for him to be hurt in any way…I stopped breathing on the play.
Goes to show the teams heavy reliance on McDavid. The whole team seemed to quit, which made a difficult task for Jack Campbell even more difficult.
Skinner will have get some shots on net as well.
Our own broadcast crew mentioned a few times the absolute lack of shots last night….12 shots at the half way mark. No idea if Jack and Louis will be docked pay.
When you make no real changes to the D combined with an out of shape Eklund this is what you get. There is enough criticism of Bouchard on here that more would be just piling on but I maintain you could get a good haul for him in a trade. I’d be looking at that. Guy never seems to make a “wow” play at 5 on 5.
I’m gonna give this comment an e3
who is this eklund you speak of. the san jose prospect?
Evan Bouchard has been so bad he has turned an Ekholm into an Eklund.
Oops!!
Not a shot suppression team. Not a shot volume team. Not known as a team that outworks you, or forechecks the bejeezus out of you. Who exactly are you, 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers, other than Connor & Leon’s team?
Low key….probably the best post of the day.
Agreed with LT.
The system was never the issue.
Mental errors at keys points in games killed this team last year.
Prospectorio!
A quintet of NA amateurs do take the ice tonight, including the full OHL contingent.
Day’s recent turnaround has been remarkable:
First three games: 8.69 GAA, 75.6 SV%
Next three games: 2.35 GAA, 91.8 SV%
Goalies are voodoo, man.
Down south, BU has fallen to 6th in the NCAA rankings and is now the only ranked team with an Oilers prospect. (Merrimack, who had entered the season 14th, has fallen out for the nonce.)
Flint (Day) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
Merrimack (Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Withrow time.
And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile
And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful wife
And you may ask yourself, “Well, how did I get here?”
Back to the basics boys.. better figure it our real quick too. I’m glad you pointed out the defensive system switch LT, it got us over 100 points last year, it was exposed in one playoff series, no need to reinvent the wheel.
Can Brown be sent down? It would be the right thing to do if possible, ie save 3Mil in cap space if he can’t produce down there and also a chance to see what Lavoie can do.
It’s obvious Lavoie is being buried for reasons other than hockey. Holland and the Coach would rather give over the hill bums opportunities over Lavoie.
Brown can be sent down, but that wouldn’t save any cap space- it would result in an increase of total cap because Lavoie’s AAV is more than Brown’s.
If you sent Brown to the AHL for the rest of the season the Oilers would save $3M next season, but that’s not gonna happen
But maybe it should?
Brown needs 20 games to get up to speed but gets a 3 million dollar bonus after playing 10 games?
Brilliant contract.
The GM mentioned, the coaches mentioned, the players mentioned and the fans mentioned that it was going to take Brown some time to get up to speed after missing a season and coming off knee surgery. 2-3 months, not 2-3 games.
A slower start was expected and not just for a couple of games.
The team will expect Brown to be more up to speed and at the top of his game down the stretch and it to the playoffs.
There is zero chance he’s being waived.
There’s no way you can fault Campbell he saved the D-men bacon in Nashville and they reward him with loose and soft as butter defending. Woody’s reinventing the wheel system is going to cost him his job if he continues to be stubborn.
The third goal against was a howler.
It’s a 2 on 1 SH with a very nice shot on the shortside. I do not blame Campbell for cheating a millisecond on the pass as he knew a lost Bouchard was defending the pass.
It was hardly a 2 on 1 and the other Phili player was crossing towards the shooter i.e. taking himself out of the play. Not to mention the shooter was right handed – he only had one place to put it. Horrible goaltending.
Ask any Goalie that was a deadly shot shortside from the slot edge. Oilers played like crap blaming Campbell is the east way out.
Bouchard didn’t push the forward wide or challenge him in any way. Let him come down the the left centre of the ice and get a shot off uncontested from prime shooting rage in the deep slot.
This team shouldn’t need to be functioning at or near max to dust Vancouver and Philly. That’s the disturbing part.
As I noted last night – they’re not scoring or defending. This is 200 feet of garbage play. That’s frightening.
Something is very wrong. And whether they get it back on the rails or not…whatever that thing is needs to be sorted so that it doesn’t rear its ugly head during crunch time like it did last year.
This team has played one decent game in the last 6 that mattered. And only 2 of the last 8. That’s awful for a squad with so much talent and zero excuses.
Sather would have his hand on the trigger finger for a trade and if that didn’t pan out would be headed behind the bench imminently.
Holland can’t coach…but should have his options ready.