The answer is July 1, 2026. That’s the day Connor McDavid becomes a free agent. Leon Draisaitl? July 1, 2025. There’s a reality here, ladies and men. I don’t like writing it and you sure don’t like reading it but we are here. The injury to Connor McDavid forces the issues, the 1-3-1 start frames it in a dire way. The Edmonton Oilers are not a good hockey club. They’re stubborn, slow, the 30+ wingers are aging like some tragic time-lapse photography gone horribly wrong. I refuse to talk about the draft. I refuse to talk about the draft. I refuse to talk about the draft. I refuse to talk about the draft. I refuse to talk about the draft. I refuse to talk about the draft.
THE ATHLETIC
- New DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
- Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
THE INJURY
We don’t know what we don’t know. There is zero use wasting the day worrying over something out of everyone’s control. Connor McDavid is a great athlete in his prime. He was hurt last night. We wait.
THE NOW
McDavid’s line (Draisaitl, Hyman) and Nuge’s line (Foegele, Janmark) were rolling last night. Poor Ryan McLeod had Evander Kane and Connor Brown on the wings and both look off the pace at this time. Brown is getting three shots per 60 right now, Dylan Holloway is producing 9.4 shots per 60 (at five-on-five). Running slow veterans on the wings is about as insane as men who wave lanterns at runaway trains.
THE FUTURE
The downbeat scenario has a new coach coming and maybe a flurry of activity if someone expensive goes on LTIR. I don’t think Jay Woodcroft can run Kane, Brown and Adam Erne much longer, unless slow is the new fast. This Oilers team is stubborn from start to finish. Woodcroft should just move Holloway up and play Broberg. If he gets fired after the game then so be it.
I expect the club will bleed out from here. There’s no real acknowledgement of the issues and zero awareness of the youth idling in the driveway. Sometimes a fit seems so right and there is early success. After a time things drift and you are left with an uneasy relationship.
Jay Woodcroft had a magic wand. It involved playing kids in prominent situations. He has broken it or had it taken away. Watching this Oilers team now is among the saddest things I’ve seen in 40+ years of viewing them. They have to play the highly paid veterans who are eroding faster than sand through the hourglass. They refuse to play the youngsters because the depth chart is populated according to cap hit.
I’m ordinarily a pretty happy fellow. This team is a mess. The money is spent years hence, the money ran out, the engine blew and everyone got old in a hurry.
If there’s one thing I want you to know today, it’s that July 1, 2026 is the most important date on the calendar.
It is not a time to panic. It is time to make your peace with the inevitable.
New for The Athletic: In the long term can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers? A look at an already fascinating career.
https://theathletic.com/4983683/2023/10/22/oilers-noel-hoefenmayer-ahl/
Its always fun to root for the guys that grind their way to the top.
It’s taking Holland 5 games to box himself into a corner with his cap management skills and his unsustainable 11-7 deployment.
Holland is deploying the 11-7 now?
Through 5 games, I had looked at the correlation between TOI/game and xGF% for the Oilers.
It turns out to be -.201
Last season, the correlation between TOI/game and xGF% for the Oilers was +0.448
Happy to see Al’s other team doing well 🙂
The last time McDavid missed two weeks was in 19/20. He missed 6 games in that span.
Oilers went 3-2-1 in His absence.
That would be a decent outcome this time around. Will be interesting to see if this is something the Oilers can rally around.
Should give Holloway a chance to grab a few more minutes for those thinking he has been underutilized. Will give him a chance to showcase himself for sure.
I’ve become one of those. I also hope that McLeod can settle in better. I don’t have high hopes for Kane/Brown at this point in time. Nuge and Foegle are also good step it up candidates imo. Success will have to be by committee. Unless we see Monster Drai.
So, this is opportunity knocks. But for whom?
Seems like the Oilers can’t use an emergency recall since they have 7 defencemen on the roster.
Going with 12 forwards should be the play with McDavid out right?
They can send down Broberg, as he is the only D that is waiver exempt, and recall Pederson to balance the roster.
I have a hard time seeing 11/7 without McDavid, so 12 would be the play. It would be a real shame if it were to be Broberg.
A team can only use an emergency recall without cap implication after playing a game short.
I would anticipate they go with 11/7, at least for the next game but would think they’d waive and assign Erne and recall Pederson.
I would be none too pleased if they assigned Broberg but, yes, its not out of the realm of reasonable possibility.
I also think Broberg deserves to play, but he’s the only guy they can waive to run 12 forwards and that seems like the best path going forward. Oilers will have to win by committee with McDavid out and rolling 4 lines is the best way to go about that IMO.
I will steal the Lowetide classic phrase, “Start as you mean to go”, and submit that four lines is the best route for the team.
Draisaitl played almost 24 minutes last game, and he was a limp noodle by the time his second OT shift rolled around. Asking 24+ quality minutes is too much for the guy who is going to be expected to carry the committee.
Personally, I would rather see Broberg play over Desharnais, but with Freidman stating that the Leafs wanted him in a Lafferty trade, there is a good chance he is claimed if sent down. Oilers don’t have any other stop gap NHL RD if they lose Vinny.
Broberg makes approx 100k more than Pederson. Over 2 weeks that is a meager sum, but every dollar is going to count at the trade deadline.
Outside of snagging Devin Shore for a 6th round pick, I don’t see any other good option.
So who would have guessed the Red Wings would be leading the EC with DeBrincat leading the scoring race with 8 goals and 12 points in 6GP?
Maybe, shockingly, it’s 5 games in and people needs to remember this when the standings are wildly different in a couple weeks.
This year it’s like nobody has watched a full season before.
😶
McDavid out 1 to 2 weeks with UBI.
Never want to see this but the team can turn this into an opportunity.
How?
Using more of the roster.
So who are you suggesting will replace McDavid as #1C?
If it’s Draisaitl that puts Nuge at #2C and he can’t carry a line.
The impact on the PP will be devastating.
Can always count on HH to try and make everyone as miserable as he obviously is. 😀
Draisaitl won the MVP the last time McDavid was out but let’s ignore this history.
In all the message boards on the internet there are few who are lashing out in a life long pain such as yourself. I’m going to tweet Mark and see if there’s an apology that can be worked out.
Leon will be playing 26 minutes a game by the end of 2 weeks they’ll be nothing left of him but c—k and ribs.
I would imagine he’s about to be subject to a great deal of attention from opposition thumpers.
chipmunk?
Would love to see a rally from the troops with 29 leading the pack. I think the team needs to understand they may not have 29 or 97 all the time, so I’m looking forward to seeing the rally, either negative or positive. Kane, looks like you’ll be getting your ice time.
so Kane did say something? I thought I heard.
Summarizing!
Stonehouse picked up a PP goal, while Copponi earned an assist.
Day was roughed up for 6 goals on 23 SOG in a loss.
Mazura was held soupless.
Back to Copponi: it appears he, like Määttä, is a witch on the dot. After going an absurd 20-for-25 on draws today, his season FO% is 63.0 (51-for-81).
Prospecting takes a break until Wednesday.
I never thought it would be possible but the Oilers may have broken LT
I am still optimistic about this season, there are all world players on this team with good players who have more to give.
The next ones.
https://dobberhockey.com/2023/10/21/the-journey-hot-starts-from-brzustewicz-lekkerimaki-rossi-roy-cooley-and-jiricek/
Seems to me that the Oilers always need a club or two over the head before it starts getting serious and it’s become a pattern over the years.
Woodcroft is coaching a style of game that he does not have manpower for so he either has to change his tactics or get new players.
I think McDavid could be utilized better. He’s a Cheetah, the fastest animal on earth. Why not take advantage of that?
Dropping him in a cage full of Pitbulls hasn’t been the healthiest thing for him. While I understand the logic of making him the strongest Cheetah it isn’t the most efficient way of utilizing his skillset.
Why not deploy him to roam near the blue line ready to break out any time the Oilers win the puck in their own zone? First Oiler who gets the puck shoots it out of zone and Connor fires up the afterburners and does his thing.
Have one other faster wingman on his line supplying support, this guy’s job is to follow up on the net sniffing out juicy rebounds, and be a pass option if Connor decides to skate behind the opponent’s net.
The third man is a digger who forechecks in their zone to create puck turnovers and doesn’t need to be fast. Let him catch up on the play during turnovers and keep an eye on things defensively.
The second line is still a scoring threat, Drai and Company. Give them Nuge and another player with some defensive abilities.
The third and fourth lines are purely defensive playing a trap game. Won’t score very much but the goal is not to be scored against either. Deploy your slower wingers here.
You’d think the Oilers would have figured out that their current system isn’t going to work, especially during the playoffs. Looks to me that the team is still sulking from their playoff exits the last few years.
The current system is double or nothing high risk win big and lose big. They need to find some balance.
And if someone could tell the Home TV announcer to turn down the excitement over the away team scoring that would be awesome.
Singh is not the home TV announcer on national games and is, in fact, from Vancouver.
Either way, he’s the worst announcer in the game (if you can even call him an announcer, seeing as he only seems to announce less than half the things actually happening on the ice).
Don’t disagree…he’s awful but hardly a homer.
Singh is, in actual fact, from Brooks (Alberta), grew up and Oilers fan and went to broadcast school at MRU in Calgary
With apologies, good sir, but has Reja hacked your account? I am used to a more patient and reasoned tone from your articles – that is their appeal. When did you get so dark, so quickly? Or is this some form of reverse psychology aimed at getting the trolls to rein in their claws a bit? I am perplexed.
It’s an experiment! The comments have been much more bearable, I’ll admit that.
So…Copponi’s goal on Friday night was very nice indeed.
Scroll down this article for the video evidence.
This blog has major New Year’s Eve vibes and it’s October 22. The season started on October 14.
god damn!
That’s because we should be talking about what 5-0 feels like and how realistic Leon’s shot at 50 in 39 is…not this putrid trash.
It’s been a bad stretch, results wise. Not near as bad as people are making it seem, see 🌾 n oil below.
There will be 1-3-1 stretches during a season. Even VGK will have one or two or more. The Oilers lost the first two games of the season and have yet to drop back to backs. Would you seriously be shocked if the same team that went 20-1 to end last year gets over this hump? How could you honestly?
Everyone has a theory but the most logical one is plain as day: they bought their own hype and got bit in the ass. Good news is attitude is the easiest thing to fix.
What shocks me about todays blog is that so many people are giving up on their own beliefs from a mere five games ago. I trust many posters on this blog and learn from them including LT obviously but all of a sudden everyone lacks resolve not only in the Oilers but seemingly in themselves’ of 8 days ago.
Gave up way faster than reasonable. I’m still ready for a great season.
For this squad I would argue there actually shouldn’t be a 1-4 stretch (I don’t care for the third column) during the season.
But it’s also worse than that – they’ve played 2 decent games in their last 9 that counted. That’s wholly unacceptable and awful.
Well I’m not sure it’s realistic to expect any team to not go 1-3-1 (there’s points in them there columns) over the course of a season. That game last night on the balance of 97s UBI, goes the other way and the conversation today is wholly different.
This ain’t baseball, it’s the sport with the hugest degree of randomization. Small sample sizes therefore need to be respected in hockey more than other sports. The team owes us more hustle and the coach owes it to his players to not overthink and panic. I think we owe them at least double digits games played before calling an end to the McDrai era.
2016 DRAFT
2017 DRAFT.
Take Right Wingers with both 1st round selections. Neither is on the roster. Those are 2 huge misses.
Look at their RW now. Had to bring Hyman in – thank goodness he has delivered. After that? no depth. It’s become a position of weakness due to the poor draft.
Just another small piece of why the team has little depth scoring
Yep…..absolutely just had to hit on one this picks.
The 3 first round draft picks effectively spent to replace Klefbom on LD should also not be overlooked.
The one spent on Ekholm was well spent.
They actually spent two (and Tyson Barrie) on Ekholm.
A reminder Colorado got Devon Toews for two seconds.
It’s 5 games in, so I find it hard to write off the season and accept the end of the McDrai era.
By my count the Oilers have played 2 stinkers and got thrashed. They played 1 mediocre game that they won in a cakewalk. And they played 2 good games that they lost. My concern is that 2 good games out of 5 is not going to get it done.
I am not as worried about individual performances as I am about team play and personnel deployment.
I haven’t agreed with everything Holland has done, but I do agree with his philosophy about building a team that can compete year after year, and not going all in for 1 shot at glory.
I have not been as big a fan of Woodcroft as some, but it has been difficult to argue with his results, until now. He has time to straighten this out, but he’d better get back to the things that brought him success when he first got here.
Some ideas on deployment
Goalie- I think the goaltending is good enough. Not great, but not bad.
Defense- I think they have to either trade Kulak or send Broberg down. Playing Broberg as the 7th dman and plugging him in all over the lineup, or sitting him, makes no sense. And Holland knows this.
Forward- I’m not going to worry about Kane or Brown for 40 games. I think they will revert to the mean. I wasn’t a fan of either signing, but they are good COMPLIMENTARY players. If you were hoping for them to drive play, you were always going to be disappointed. Woodcroft needs to spread the ice time out better and find more playing time for Holloway. Oh, and Adam Erne is not the reason this team is 1-3-1. Fixating on him is a fools game.
Adan Erne may not be the reason, but he certainly is not helping. Adam Erne is a waste of a spot in the line up. Christ, we have a board lot of Adam Ernes playing in Bakersfield. Could it be any worse bringing Malone or Caggiula up? And what is so bad about Brown finding his game in Bakersfield?
Stonehouse opens the scoring with a PP goal, his 2nd tally of the campaign.
Does anyone really thing there is any realistic chance they are waiving Connor Brown and sending him to the AHL prior to his 10 game bonus kicking in?
Firstly, is there anyone in Bakersfield that would replace him that would make the team better? No, no there isn’t. No, Raphael Lavoie isn’t making the team better than Connor Brown right now.
Also, remember prior to the season started when the GM said Brown would take some time, when the coaching staff said Brown would take some time, when Leon said Brown would take some time and when most of the fan base said Brown would take some time.
Its been 5 games. Its going to take a couple of months for him to get back up to speed with full trust in his knee and his timing back – not a couple of games.
The key is for Brown to be “up and running” for the stretch drive and the playoffs.
Fans preach patience and then don’t show patience – for example, give the lines a good 10-15 games to gel but then, every time, after 2 games of “non gelling”, fans are all about line changes (coach as well).
Also, my goodness would the NHLPA every have something to say about a legit NHL player getting send down to the AHL to avoid a performance bonus for games played.
Not to mention no player ever willing to sign in Edmonton again without a NMC that would preclude the waivers without consent.
How about he finds his game in Bakersfield and he can hit his bonus game in February, or January. Why gift him the games here when he could benefit from going to the Bake.
Is there anyone in Bako they could replace him with that would make the team better right now?
In my opinion that answer is no.
Lots of talk of Brown taking some time.
What were their actions?
To start Connor Brown on Line 1
I was expressly against starting Brown on the first line and against him being so locked in as a top 6 forward without competition.
Fans?
How much patience has Woody shown with the lines?
Loading up McDavid and Drai ( ‘nuclear option’) reeks of a level of panic most fans have not reached- yet.
I specifically mentioned “and coaches” in my post as guilty of not providing the required patience.
I think most accepted he would take time to get up to speed.
There were moments in the pre season that seemed like it wouldn’t be the case, that he would not the ground running.
The major issue is obvious and it’s rather stark.
The Oilers have only 6 forwards who have scored at least 1 point and that includes Evander Kane who has a single assist.
That leaves 6 forwards shooting bagels.
Atrocious depth.
.
For context…Vegas has 13.
Colorado has used only 12 forwards this season.
All of them have at least 1 point.
37 year old 4th line player Andrew Cogliano has 3 points in 4GP.
Bottom 6 winger Logan O’Connor has 3 goals…all short handed.
Depth…it’s a thing.
Speaking of atrocious depth: Your bald spot is showing through your comb-over….
I have thick and lustrous hair.
Evander Kane would be envious.
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/1716162940716351529?s=61
I’m pretty sure he was talking about your head and not your ass.
That was good for a laugh on Sunday morning. Thank you.
Thanks! I try.
Thick and lustrous hair? Not on your head, surely…(cue bad mental image to relate to a therapist tomorrow…)
I really wanted this to be a picture of a beautiful mane of hair. But it was just kane stats.
Why is this being downvoted? Do people deny the data? Or is it that we don’t think the data points to a depth problem with the forwards?
probably more to do with it being a bit much considering the context of an 82 game season that’s only 5 games old. . .
The posters just think he’s an asshole, wonder why?
No one is disputing the data
Not too high not too low. And I know that’s tough when Vegas is poised to go 82-0-0.
Since game 2 the PK is holding a very respectable 83% kill rate. Small sample size alert but that would be firmly in the top 10 if it holds up for the season.
Gotta stay out of the sin bin. Zapping 10 minutes a game throws off everyone’s chance to contribute.
Goalers can’t spot a softy a game. Can’t happen and it’s happened in b2b games now. Not putting all this on the goalers, not what this is about, but they gotta stop the easy ones. Especially at the end of periods on the PP.
Vegas going to do thier best Boston impression😀
They are the Cup champs who played till the end of June and seem to be fresh as a daisy. When you can roll 4 heavy lines against any line on the opposition this team deserves respect.
This is frustrating, but I hope it doesn’t turn out to be as bad as all of that.
There are no games where the Oilers score 2 goals that were strong, great, or even good.
Eject that concept. It isn’t possible with this group.
Do we have good metrics for the first 5 games?
Yes.
With 2 Gods we have been able to secure that, so that is good news.
Here is our fight card:
Vancouver
Vancouver
Nashville
Philadelphia
Winnipeg
This is fixable if Woodcroft and Bouchard get their heads out of their a#$s. Woodcroft’s second shitty training camp in a row, and inane roster deployment, and Bouchard reverting back to where he was at the start of last season instead of the end of the season, has cratered the Oilers start. Bouchard exasperate me. Barrie, with all his limititions, brought leadership and effort and appreciation to his good fortune at the opportunity he was given. Bouchard, not so much.
0) The goaltenders seem fine. I don’t fully trust Campbell yet, but that is PTSD from last season. Skinner is a solid starter, where the team in front of him will win and lose the games. Skinner is probably a year or two away from stealing games.
1) I would play Broberg with Nurse, and let Ceci and Desharnais battle it out for #3LD, and sit Bouchard for a game, every time he mental lapses. I know most of you folks find that extreme so
1A) Sit your worst defenseman of the game the next game for one game only. The best six, and the best deployment will emerge over time.
2) Give Connor Brown his full nine games, and if he is still struggling offensive, send him to the AHL to find his hands.
3) Swap out Erne for Lavoie.
4) I would staple Holloway to McLeod and let them get 15 minutes a game. Lots of options for right wing, depending on the deployment of the rest of the roster.
5) McLeod and Nugent-Hopkins are good enough, that I have no strong feelings this year whether McDavid and Draisaitl are deployed together or not. But Nugent-Hopkins gets one of Draisaitl or Hyman, and McDavid can only get one of Draisaitl and Hyman.
Pairs:
McDavid, one of Draisaitl/Hyman
Nugent-Hopkins, one of Draisaitl/Hyman
Holloway/McLeod
Janmark, Ryan, Lavoie
Find the best places for Foegele, Kane, and Brown…might mean elevating on of Janmark, Ryan, Lavoie in place of Brown.
Speculation: McDavid’s injury may be a charleyhorse, a deep muscle bruise, near the hip, that tightened-up by the end of the 3rd period. If so, I would LTIR him for a month, and bring up forward competition. I wouldn’t want to rush him back.
I agree on Bouchards play. Despite his flashes, his average has been mediocre. How long do we wait? It’s always “we have to find a partner for Bouchard”
Yeah, because he gives up so much in such glaring plays. He always needs cover.
I agree with Nurse – Broberg, and tell Broberg to get his feet going when he sees open ice.
Then Ekholm – Desharnais. Use Ekholm talent to bring this big monster along. If his draft pedigree was a first round pick this would already be happening.
And Ekholm can provide 80% of Bouchards offense while still covering D
Leaving Kulak and Bouchard Sub in Ceci 1,2,3 pair based on performance as described above. Bouchard helps on the PP and at 5×5 he can hurt you, so limit him to third pairing D. He will show when he’s ready. In the meantime the overall defence is improving through reps for Broberg and Desharnais.
Connor Brown demoted to 3rd Line….how did he do?
CF 30%
SF 20%
Connor Brown TOI -9:55
Dylan Holloway TOI – 8:16
Ravens 28, Lions 0, I blame LT.
We were the better team , no question.
So, moral victory secured. Hockey Hall of fame calling for shattering record in this category …?
But, we nearly completed the Oiler fan excuse bingo card in one game last night:
Rotten luck
Bad goaltender ( Skinner pass to Jets)
Injury
Just missing the ‘ flu’….
We are literally 5 facking games into the season, i think relax is in order! If we hit thanksgiving in this position, then hit the panic button!
Doesn’t history tell us that thanksgiving is too late?
Broberg
CF 42% / SF 45%
Vinny
CF 66% / SF 80%
Longtime listener, 1st time caller, John…
Despite the loss, that was the Oil’s best overall game of the season so far. Their play was crisp and more structured, and aside from the obvious blunder, played their best defensive game yet. Hopefully, they can build off of it (and 97 isn’t hurt too badly)…
It would be nice if they were steamrolling all comers, but I refuse to become despondent over a group of under-performing millionaires.
How many analysts picked the Oilers as this years cup winner? Seems every team they pick gets irrevocably screwed in some form or another. It’s at Harpers Hair levels for the kiss of death.
I thought Derek Ryan had a great though unspectacular game.
He generated chances, disrupted the breakout, and was in the right place.
We can bitch and moan about 55 not moving up the depth chart, but playing w/ Ryan will pay dividends in terms of his development.
Both Mcleod and Holloway have yet to contribute a point this season. We can say it’s b/c of line mates. Perhaps. If you’re gonna move up the depth chart you gotta find a way to contribute in the bottom 6.
I’m gonna take the positives with the negatives:
They played reasonably well.
OTL to WPG is not a terrible outcome.
Ryan is playing very well
Kane was engaged; the scoresheet will come
Holloway is coming along
Bouchard had a good rebound game.
Skinner played well – minus the one play (which he will learn from)
on the negative:
Brown is not contributing
Broberg should play over Desharnais every night
Janmark got promoted to top 6 and spend the 2nd in the sin bin – unexcusable
Leon plays too much.
LT needs a hug. Would someone mind popping over and doing that quickly? Just whoever’s closest.
All joking aside, this is a really great idea…
Maybe a call?
Dinner at Bruce’s???
I know, I know, it really doesn’t “mean anything” and its not going to cause any on the ledge to back off from the ledge or make anyone feel less disheartened but, well, as I said, the Oilers were unlucky not to win last night and I do not on the catastrophic ledge.
This is one of the “smart guys of twitter” that is respected by many across Oilers Social media (including many veterans of this community and its host) and cited by some as part of the group that would be a “good hire” by the Oilers as they expand their analytics team:
WheatNOil
@WheatNOil
5 games into the season.
The Oilers are 3rd in the league in 5×5 score-adjusted corsi, behind only fellow Cup favourites Colorado and Carolina.
In Expected Goals, they’re 8th in the league.
Their PDO is 4th worst in the NHL & it’s not all goaltending. They’re 25th in Sh%.
Taken as a whole, the Oilers have been mostly unlucky.
I don’t know what Campbell & Skinner’s baseline save percentage will be and that’s a problem.
But I know their Sh% will be better.
The numbers suggest there’s no reason to panic.
Until we hear more about McDavid.
Yeah Wheat actually posted this an hour ago below, thanks.
“Low” or “high” SV% + SH% doesn’t necessary reflect chance in any kind of scientific sense. This belief is spreadsheet superstition.
Both percentages and counts regress when a sample size is increased. This is the law of regression. The sample for CF% is very slightly larger (CF 234 to SA 119) so in that respect placing more faith in it as a predictor has some sense.
But the fact remains that the best teams post higher SV% + SH% than the worst over larger samples. There’s no reason to believe that low SV% + SH% doesn’t reflect poor performance – even or especially – in small samples. The Oilers could just as easily be playing poorly as they could be unlucky.
What is most fascinating about the 5v5 numbers over these last 5 games is that they are incredibly similar to the numbers they posted in the 6 games of the second round vs the Knights.
The difference is – I think we would all agree – that the teams they have faced are a lot worse than VGK.
The Oilers are playing like a tired injured playoff team. This is not related to chance. They are not focused, are making big mistakes and aren’t finishing.
vs VGK 5v5
GP 6
GF60 2.01
GA60 3.35
SF60 27.72
SA60 30.18
SF% 52.12
Sh% 6.67
SV% 87.90
Sh% + SV% .946
2023-2024
GP 5
GF60 1.82
GA60 2.87
SF60 29.72
SA60 28.42
SF% 51.12
Sh% 6.14
SV% 89.91
Sh% + SV% .960
I haven’t seen score adjusted corsi used much lately.
Hat tip to Jlinkens who was the first, to my recollection, to conceive of it.
His blog which was written back in 2011 or so, is still mind boggling to look back at.
To say that he was exceptionally bright doesn’t quite come close.
Woodcroft has another 5 games left if they keep playing like this
Goalies are coach killers
Black hole sun
Won’t you come
And wash away the rain?
Black hole sun
Won’t you come
Won’t you come
Won’t you come
The Oilers need to play to their offensive identity and revert back to their D zone system from last year. Being the best offensive team in the league is a major asset, don’t put a limiter on that just so you can win the odd game 2-1. Instead execute better and pay attention to details in the defensive zone when you need to. This narrative of having to win 2-1 is in their heads and they don’t know how to play – that’s the major issue with this team right now as I see it. They’re caught in between playing like they used to and playing like they are being told to now.
I think you make a major point. I was just thinking on this. Might be time to do what got you here.
Also, we tend to refer to Derrick Ryan as a smart future coach. When asked, he spoke very clearly. You need to involve everyone, you need to play a team in order to win.
I agree and don’t agree.
I agree the deployment and the utter refusal to play the energetic and fast youngers and reliance on older veterans is starting to get egregious.
I don’t believe that Woody doesn’t have full autonomy to play who he wants when he wants and I don’t believe he deploys based off cap hit.
I believe the Woody, just like the GM, believe the “experience” equates to “being a good pro” which equates to “being trusted” which equates to “playing the right way” which equates to “not making mistakes” and I believe this is, well, wrong.
For some reason, Woody seems be believe that a player needs 300 games before he can trust him. That a mistake made by a younger player is a “growing pain” which the team doesn’t have time for and refuses to acknowledge that the vets are making the same damn mistakes.
That’s my point, OP. Woodcroft DID believe in unproven players when he arrived. Now? Not so much.
Now he seems to believe strongly in team hierarchy.
Did he though?
He has a history of relying on his vets – he did that in Bakersfield – relied on the likes of Malone and Cracknell and Esposito over the younger and higher ceiling prospects.
Relied on the Stanton’s of the world on defence.
What unproven youngster did he rely on all that much when he took over? He refused to give Broberg any consistent ice time since he took over.
He gave Holloway one shift and demoted him after one mistake to start last season.
I don’t see a big shift if Woody’s willingness to play younger players.
Do you know how much ice time Holloway received?
I seen him on 3 penalty kills then a few shifts in the third
10:08
10:08, least on the team.
Coach, do you not know who Leon Draisaitl is by now?
He gets tired, but he won’t quit. He will stay out there too much. He will win the game for you or completely lose it for you. He will be gassed in overtime, every single time. Love his heart but coach needs to coach him.
What was the win-loss record in overtime last year?
And Woody always felt he had the 3 best players out on the ice. Yet they were beat often.
Why were these tactics not corrected?
Leon Draisaitl is the new Phil Esposito…
That’s been a great comp for a long time.
Meh – I’m displeased and disheartened but I don’t agree with the overly catastrophic theme of today’s post.
That’s OK, I can understand why many feel that way, I personally choose not to and I personally choose to recognize that the Oilers were the better team for most of that game last night and, if they get one break late, or Foegele or Hyman score on their breakaways to extend the lead, or Skinner doesn’t make a silly decision to come out on a 50-50 puck, the Oilers win that game in regulation.
It didn’t happen and, well, the mood is understandable.
Take the day off Oilers, play with your kids and hand out with your wife/girlfriend/family and get back to work on Monday and, well, do better – better times are coming and it could start on Tuesday.
Let’s try a positive outlook. Connors injury is not serious we hope but it will give the rest of the team a wake up call and a time to realize that the season has started. Maybe the coach will become innovative and try some new combinations.
I know the term lunch pail mentality gets badly overused but it is fitting for the situation. All the cliques apply now. Everyone needs to chip in. Pucks in deep, crash the net, get their noses dirty, all of them. And defencemen try playing defence. The Cavalry isn’t coming but Calgary is to the outdoor rink. It’s win or be embarrassed time.
I can’t agree with much of what LT wrote. The skaters aren’t playing poorly. The losses are much like last year’s… they’re finding ways to lose. LT wrote “the sky is falling” and “the future is doom” articles last year too and then the very same squad went on an epic second-half run that culminated in losing to the SC champs in a series that could’ve went either way.
Goalie is the only question mark, which is true for almost all teams every year. There are two pretty good dice rolls in the goalie stable and plenty of
asphaltemotional rollercoaster ahead.One quality that Holland will exemplify that many of the official commentors won’t: patience. After all, there’s a fanbase to get all stirred up.
This is really not much different than it was when the Oilers went 3-7 after starting 7-3 or after they got demolished by the Kings and gave up 4 PP goals and the Oilers were out of the playoffs.
It happens to be right at the beginning of the season so the overall “record” is magnified but this isn’t something the team hasn’t gone through the last two years, where they finished up very successfully.
One difference is all that talk about cups and a great start, etc. so its looks even worse than it is.
To me the Oilers are not playing a fast game. They are playing slow and losing races, battles and breakouts, and I say that as a summary to date, as I actually thought they were much better last night.
In the first ten minutes, when switched on, they have the speed and skill to beat any team. It’s still there.
But energy seems lacking. Get any crew of any workers together. The veterans can all dig with a shovel, but they would rather not. That’s what the new guy is for. That’s what the rookie is for.
And who is pushing any veterans on this team? There are a couple players, but the coach won’t recognize them.
Let’s bookmark today for when the Oilers are top 3 in the west and cooking because the bottom doesn’t fall out this fast, it’s a bad start and it’s in their heads…. An attitude they can fix, let’s hope the fan base can discover some perspective after 5 (five) games.
We now know why McDavid and Draisaitl were put together. It’s what Woody does when one is injured. I propose the injury was a couple games back.
I was wondering that identical thing, with the same observation as your middle sentence about 97+29.
Trying to recall the specifics of the instance in Game 1 where I held my breath about 97, certainly recall such in Game 4 & then of course last night.
In Philly he had his first game since 2017-18 with 0 shots & 0 hits. He has just 3 shots in his last 3 games. He passed off from shooting position multiple times last night. He’s 10th among 12 forwards in xGF%. The clues that something is not right have been there since well before he lifted himself last night with a game on the line, which clearly is the most ominous clue of all.
5 games into the season.
The Oilers are 3rd in the league in 5×5 score-adjusted corsi, behind only fellow Cup favourites Colorado and Carolina.
In Expected Goals, they’re 8th in the league.
Their PDO is 4th worst in the NHL & it’s not all goaltending. They’re 25th in Sh%.
Taken as a whole, the Oilers have been mostly unlucky.
I don’t know what Campbell & Skinner’s baseline save percentage will be and that’s a problem.
But I know their Sh% will be better.
The numbers suggest there’s no reason to panic.
Until we hear more about McDavid.
Brown is a nice two-way player and Kane will get better. I don’t see any good reason why Dylan Holloway (or Derek Ryan for that matter) trailed in five-on-five ice time last night. The coach needs to be more selfish. He owes it to his team. Woodcroft has had a terrible 2023.
I don’t disagree with any of those recommendations. I echo them in fact. But I’m hesitant to say Woodcroft has had a terrible 2023. Ultimately, his team has delivered an excellent corsi and good xG through 5 games. The PK needs work though and that’s on him.
Save percentage and shooting percentage can get a coach fired or extended and yet, I tend to believe he has less control of that (though not ‘no control’) than he does tactics and deployment to improve possession and expected goals. I admit, that is a hypothesis of mine and certainly not proven.
In 2018 Barry Trotz won an elusive Stanley cup in Washington by going in there and turning a one line star studded roster into a 4 line monster. I don’t believe Washington improved their roster that much from the previous season. Trotz was able to get everyone into a lunch pale mentality. Short shifts, everyone has a relentless effort. The Oilers are the 2015 to 2017 Washington Capitals.
You mean loading up one line and playing the shit out of them won’t work?
Ground hog day in Edmonton.
If it doesn’t work. Keep trying it again.
And again….and again….and again….and again.
One of this days – Woody will get a different result.
Holland made an excellent signing in Hyman. We all knew the last couple of years of the contract we wouldn’t enjoy but expected 4 great years, I think he’ll match that.
Holland made an excellent trade for Ekholm which instantly transformed the defence.
With all due respect to Holloway and Broberg who are developing, the only impact draft picks on this team are from the Chiarelli era or earlier.
The goaltending has been a gamble by Holland all along. He lucked out with Smith but it could have been a disaster.
The pro and amateur procurement has been poor overall and we haven’t had the ELC players contributing.
The team remains top heavy and we’ve now had McLellan, Hitchcock, Tippett and now Woodcroft load up 97 & 29 as some kind of panacea.
Maybe Pocklington was an amateur necromaner who sold the souls of Oilers fans for 5 Cups and 5 Cups only, who knows?
At this point it’s frankly easier as a fan to wait for the highlight reel clips of McDavid to come on my phone than to watch the actual games.
Was at a friend’s 50th last night, game wasn’t on the TV, nobody was surreptitiously watching on the phone, and that is not typical for this house.
Just yesterday I was going to ask our gracious host if he felt McDavid would ask for a trade, or walk in free agency if the Oilers missethe playoffs. I decided against it, and 24 hours later I have my answer. The universe is a crazy thing.
On a negative, we need to stop that play that spots the other team a gimmie and lose the game because of it. Single events as we deem in these parts but its sinking this teams swagger.
Ending on a positive note, its still early, this team can win games, get back to basics and put on the work boots. Light a candle. I don’t think the division is the goal this morning, just make the dance.
From “calm” straight to “we’re irrevocably screwed”???
Oh boy…
Corrective action is completely within their control. It’s just whether they do it or not.
And for those of you who wonder why some of us are early interveners, it’s because this kind of thing is visible long before doom and gloom sets in if you know what to look for.
When an offence-based team tries to win via defending, it loses. Mostly because it stops scoring.
When a Coach can’t adjust mid-game, they will always fail in the big situations. The great players and coaches differentiate themselves in large part by their ability to self-identify and self-correct. Find and keep those people in all places.
What would vegas do? Put McDavid on ltir, go get 12.5 M worth of talent, scrape into the playoffs and get mcdavid back on the ice.