The temptation for this blog’s author at moments like these is to roll out an article on the draft or the prospects. I wrote a strong one on the Bakersfield Condors for The Athletic this morning, I hope you read it. Oilers general manager Ken Holland has himself stuck in an impossible situation. There’s no money, the coach has no answers, and the team can’t play defense to save their souls. What to do?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Can the Oilers count on any short-term help from AHL Bakersfield?
- Lowetide: Can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
- Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
BAD TIMING, THAT’S ALL
I’m not telling you this to be an asshole. I’m telling you this because it is what I see. Right now, the Edmonton Oilers have about a 75 percent chance to make the playoffs. That will go down in the days to come. As I see it, there are four main issues:
- Ken Holland has constructed a room for himself with no doors or windows. He can’t exit. He is in the movie THX 1138.
- Jay Woodcroft is overwhelmed and listing. He doesn’t have any answers and I’m not sure he is asking the right questions.
- The goaltenders are ineffective.
- The defensemen, specifically Evan Bouchard, are being eaten up by forechecking pressure and unforced errors.
So, what comes next? I think this team is going to need some kind of transfusion. The easiest fix in the world is to recall Raphael Lavoie and send down Adam Erne, but the Oilers’ brass has made their decision on Lavoie. I wrote about it here and I don’t see it as being a part of the solution. I don’t know if it would move the needle, but something must be done. The outdoor game could be a massacre or redemption.
I mentioned Woodcroft being in trouble a few days ago and several of you balked at the idea. Perhaps you still feel that way. His team is ghastly. A nightmare. Easier to fire the coach than 23 22 21 20 players.
Ken Holland is the doomed sub commander in Hunt for Red October now.
Finally, and fire away if you wish, I do think this is a pressure point for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. These men will have spent half of their careers in Edmonton by the time each contract expires. Is there a willingness to stay? I’m fairly certain Jeff Jackson doesn’t have experience in hockey cascades.
At noon, Sports 1440, Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal joins us to talk about the Wild game. Also appearing today a guest to talk an unlikely World Series. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Jack Hughes up to 17 points in 6GP.
This kid might be pretty good.
saw an IG. 5th best start after 6 games.
gretz – 18
Lemieux – 19
Bossy – 20
Lelmieux – 22
Era adjusted, he’s ripping the cover off the ball.
yes he is. Era adjusted the other guys are pretty good too
Yep…he’s in very good company.
Just turned 22.
Might want to work on his faceoffs though…27.3%.
Haha, is this sarcasm, i find it funny.. All the hand wringing over faceoffs over the years when really what the team needed was a RHC that could score 17 points in 6 games, hehe
But yeah, he’ll get there
———
Was thinking of Hughes the other day, in combination w the woes of oildom, while having been startled by LT’s resigned tone of despair, reminded that on this beautiful planet the sun rises for some as it sets for others..
Too soon, ‘most’ of us would agree.. Too soon..
*sniffles*
Summarizing!
It was Good Day sunshine as Flint rallied for a 6-3 win to give Day his third win of the season. In stopping 36 of 39 SOG, he also was named 1st star for the third time this year.
[Insert song lyrics extolling Day’s virtues here]
And once again had the OHL Save of the Night. (Mind you, it was the only game tonight, but still…)
Is it true that Holloway served all 3 too many men penalties?
I mentioned in real time last night when he went to serve the first one that Holloway should not be serving the penalty, he should be helping kill it.
I am adamant that Holloway needs to be used in a depth PK role this season as I believe he can be a material PK guy for the next 10 years.
We keep seeing a lack of ice time for young or bottom six players because they don’t get special teams, well, this is a player with 2-way and PK pedigree that should be worked in to the PK with regularity – develop the skill so he can be used in the game-state in the future.
He was averaging just under a minute per game on the PK going in to last night and I have no idea why he was serving.
Well his linemates were McLeod and Brown, who are core penalty killers (#2 and #3 in PK TOI this season, as well as being PK regulars for their entire respective careers).
I don’t know who the Dmen were, but I imagine NOT putting your main PK forwards in the box in favor of a guy who’s played 5:26 PK minutes in his entire career was a factor.
Foegele served the final one. Assuming just in case he could get a breakaway for the hat trick in the dying seconds?
good to know, thanks
“Do I expect…hardness in that area? Yes, I do…. We can be firmer and harder. Our entire group can be harder in that area”.
– Jay “Todd” Woodcroft, from today’s Oilers media availability.
If a boxer is getting pummelled a good cornerman throws in the towel. It’s not to punish his fighter it’s to protect him.
Bouchard is getting pummelled these days. Coach should protect him by sheltering and lowering his minutes.
It’s not punitive. He’s struggling and hurting the team.
We’ll need him again (if they don’t trade him)
This.
Bouchard is a rare elite offensive talent. I do advocate for a 1 game scratch and then reduced 3 rd pairing minutes – along with PP time.
It will be interesting to see what Woody does
By advocating for a one-game scratch you advocate to play with a 17 skater lineup.
Also, why would a 1 game scratch ‘fix’ Bouchard?
Do folks think he doesn’t know he’s played like shit? Do they feel that ‘holding him accountable’ is going to solve what ails him?
Do you not believe in accountability in general, or just in regards to Bouchard’s lacklustre play?
It’s about what will get him playing better. If you think healthy scratching him will do that then fair enough. I’m less sure that scratching him will have a positive effect.
Woody was just bombarded by the media with respect to the systems and defensive zone play. Woody was VERY defensive about it and was adamant that, prior to last night, only one goal had been a systems breakdown goal (admitting there were a few last night). Media actually made him go through the 8 goals in game one and Woody was adamant that not tying up sticks and goals off faceoffs were breakdown of structure/systems but individual mistakes.
Spector asked about the penchant for the team to be near their mark in the defensive zone but not really taking that player out of the play. He was obviously getting at Bouchard. Woody agreed that they need to be tougher and harder in front of the net.
Spec then named Bouch specifically and Woody was clear that he wasn’t good enough but he was just one of many and he has seen Bouch play his best 2-way hockey when the games are the toughest and hardest, in the playoffs.
Spec was simply describing the Oilers defending style known as “also in picture”.
Doesn’t Woodcroft often say that he uses his eyes during games and makes adjustments accordingly?
Apparently, every time he looks at Evan, he goes blind.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Yl-UW34Kc
As far as the opinion that Bouchard should be scratched for a game, well, the Oilers only have 18 healthy skaters so, unless they are going to voluntarily play short, that’s not really an option, is it?
Most teams only dress 6 defencemen.
Does not seem out of the realm to scratch one of the seven D – to leave 6
Woody has normalized dressing an odd number of D
Are you really suggesting they play short a player, 17 skaters, to healthy scratch Bouchard?
The OIlers can bring up a league minimum player to replace McDavid, can they not?
I believe they have to play 1 game without the league minimum 18 skaters before the emergency recall rules apply
and playing short because of healthy scratching a player does not count.
Not unless they are putting him on LTIR.
If we get spanked by the talented well coached Rangers I can see McDavid after 6 days in the chamber lacing it up at 75% playing limited minutes except PP. Booook it….
Last season Jack Campbell had a 3.41 GAA and rode a putrid .888 sv%.
“He’s not good enough to justify his salary and should be flushed” was an unpopular opinion that a few of us held, but for the most part folks wanted to give Jack a second chance.
This season so far Jack Campbell is an incomprehensible 4.35 and .878.
Calvin Pickard is no worse than the organization’s second-best goaltender. Like Jack Campbell he’s a 2010 draft pick. Maybe it’s time to give Pickard his shot at his Adin Hill moment.
Well since Stu is rocking a similar GAA with a .814 save%, Jack may currently be the best goalie on the NHL roster. YIKES!
Stu was his usual average in his two starts. Gave up 4 against Vancouver, and 3 against the Jets. 1A goalie performances.
Last year that was usually enough to win or push the game to OT.
Jack has been brutal in two starts, and was very bad against Philly. He’s not an NHL goalie.
4 goals on 16 shots is a 1A performance?
Ken Holland has built a mediocre team; that’s the Oiler way
He has built a team that falls inexcusably short of what a better and sharper GM could have built while being gifted two of the best Centermen to ever play the game in their primes.
He’s also cleaned out the cookie jar. Jackson better rein him in so he doesn’t trade our 1st for a broken down vet. If we continue sliding and miss the playoffs or get bounced in 5 by the Av’s in the 1st round we need a sharp G.M to parlay Leon next year if he comes clean and wants the beach life.
21 man roster, for me, is a big part of the unforced error playing out.
15 teams running full 23 man
12 teams running 22 man
3 teams running 21 man
2 teams running 20 man
There’s a reason majority of general managers ensured they weren’t repeating near bare bone rosters again this year.
Essentially nothing to do but rearrange deck chairs on forwards or force extra minutes on some forwards if running 7 D. One wrong turn away from having to play a game shorthanded before making emergency recall…There’s no good reason they are in this position.
Who ar3 the 2 teams running 20 man roster?
Where did you get those numbers? Capfriendly has 1 team with a 20 player roster (LA) and 7 teams with a 21 player roster. So fully 1/4 of the teams are running 21 or less players. There are some good and well run teams running 20 or 21 players. The flat cap has caused this as much as poor management.
6 of those teams running 23 man rosters are in LTIR in order to accomplish that.
I hated Woodcroft’s preseason, as it appeared unfocused and didn’t play the actual team together until the very very end. This team was allegedly supposed to be a contending team, with everything geared towards winning – after all, this was the excuse given for sending Lavoie down, passing him through waivers, etc. Yet, if the Oilers were so focused on winning only, then why did Woody spend nearly every game in training camp playing AHLers and guys who have no chance of making the team this year rather than playing the actual team in more games together to build line chemistry? This could be part of the reason for the team’s sluggish start.
Also, what kind of contending team is consistently playing 7 D? For goodness sake, as others pointed out, Woodcroft had THREE too many men penalties in one game, what a fail. Woody is also smug and arrogant at times, something I have no issue with, BUT it is unearned to date; you need to win something of significance before you can act like the second coming of Sather behind the bench.
I’m not saying Woody is a bad coach, he showed in the past he has some good coaching skills. But he’s lost the plot this year. And his goalies can’t bail him out.
Trevor Zegras was benched by Anaheim last night in the 3rd period and OT. A forward version of Evan Bouchard. Offensively gifted but defensively suspect.
I’m sorry, but this whole Erne is staying in EDM because his family is settled there is inane.
Is this a charity or a professional hockey team?
Sweetheart deals for Erne and Brown. The former does nothing and convincingly lost a spot on this team based on his TC performance. The latter does nothing and will be handsomely rewarded for it while this team pays on next year’s cap.
Perfect.
Erne and Brown could have signed with anyone and the latter could have taken a different contract structure to give him some stability, if that’s what he really wanted.
This team does not owe Erne anything, nor does it owe Brown the opportunity to cash in on a big pay day as a UFA.
Please waive both.
Sorry for the interruption. Let’s get back to bashing Bouchard 🙂
I 100% second this.
Yeah, the cruelty of sending someone away from their home to snowbird in California for a measly $775K.
A general rebuttal to the mass criticism of Bouchard:
Last season, 3rd in FF% amongst Oiler D. Only guys ahead of him were Broberg (lesser role and lesser minutes) and Ekholm (smaller sample). GF% of 54 bested by only Ekholm, Niemelainen, and Desharnais (SSS, SSS and limited role/minutes, respectively)
He is a first pairing D, full stop.
I don’t buy for a second any criticism suggesting this is an intrinsically flawed player. If he’s intrinsically flawed, why didn’t we see it last year or the year before?
He is effective and has shown it. He is experiencing some hiccups for sure. He will never, never, never be as dynamic as a Makar (few are). He will never have the physical gifts of Nurse (ditto).
So what? He is cerebral, patient, and smart. He is on occasion calm to a fault, but he has less than 200 regular season GP. If you want to blame anyone for where Bouchard is today, blame Oilers management and coaching (prior regime) for not playing him more early, such as to ensure that we are further along his development path in the present.
I do not understand sitting him. He needs to play in order to learn this new system and the Oilers need to win games. Scapegoating him or any core player is ludicrous and decade of darkness level ridiculous.
and they are doing the same thing to Hollaway and Lavoie.
And Broberg.
His defensive awareness has always been questionable and has become a glaring issue at the moment. This isn’t supposed to be a development league and I really don’t care what his numbers were last year.
I agree he needs to play but would rather it happen with less exposure i.e. less minutes against lesser opponents. This is what good teams do.
Yes he was good last year, he seems to be having difficulties just now. He struggled early last year too. The team needs to work with him but they need to win now too. They need to do both and be smart about it, i.e. bench/shelter Bouchard while they figure out what the issues are and how to fix/mitigate them.
Yes they need to win but the cards are dealt. They need to trust this is rough start a thing but they are a strong team
They need to focus on team and player growth and actually focus on the day. That is how you can win a Cup. Thinking about go time or whatever is counter productive, as this season has started. Probably always
Team building and developing actual cohesiveness, getting everyone involved is what will work. Not bench shortening and rushing things
Bouchard is nowhere near a first pairing D.
Fuller stop.
First pairing on the Edmonton Oilers D squad is apparently third pairing for most other teams.
This kind of analysis only works when the league starts scoring the game in Fenwicks. He gets the puck moving in the right direction.
He frequently posts very low SV% because he makes mistakes, and frequently posts low shooting percentage because he’s a volume shooter. In large samples he often posts the lowest SV% + SH% of his defensive colleagues – and not because he’s unlucky.
Last season Bouchard posted a 44% goal share without Ekholm.
Presently Bouchard leads THE LEAGUE in 5v5 GA for defenders and leads the Oilers in GA60.
This is a player who’s always looking to outscore his mistakes. Sometimes it just doesn’t work. And it’s not working now. Mostly because Ekholm is still hurting from whatever kept him out of the pre-season.
Bouchard was also 0-5 goals with Ryan Murray which would not help his “away from Ekholm” numbers – and Bouchad was 57% expected goals away from Ekholm and Murray.
So what you’re trying to say is that he was terrible the first half of last season in a bottom pairing role. It was a black hole when he was out there with players like McLeod. It was not all on the others.
His style of play is precisely the Oilers’ problem. The guy likes to force low percentage plays, and keeps waiting for Jesus to take the wheel. When Jesus gets busy, he gets in trouble.
Give him Desharnais minutes and let him on the PP. If you can trade him for ’22-’23 Adam Larsson, do it.
It’s like Holland is forcing Broberg who was Hollands signature pick onto Woody who doesn’t trust and play him. Everyone cries about Jesse development yet I’ve never seen a Mickey Mouse gimmick like this 7D bullshit which needs to end. Three too many men penalties that’s on the Coach who’s to busy playing games with his starting roster.
It could be a ‘coaching tree’ thing going back to Detroit. The blender allegedly forces players to play the system, players prefer regularity as they can learn to play with each other. Coaches come up through a style of coaching. Woody looks more like Todd each day
I think a bigger personality with more jazz suits a Connor team. Smart and adaptive, attacking, but not loose
Bouchard probably tells all the good dad jokes in the locker room after the game and that’s why he gets so much ice time.
— Not to be a dick or anything but post playoffs last year when a few brave souls opined that our coach had been outclassed this was widely dismissed
— It was ventured that he was a start of season like Tippets away from being fired…
— Suspect he can’t turn it around and is gone within a month : shit happens.
— Babcock is available *jokes*
Bring on Babs, Quenneville and Hitchcock.
The best thing about October 25 is that its not yet November. Better yet, it is not yet February, or even December. We can observe that things aren’t working, but this is literally pushing the goalposts. November did not come early. That’s not how time works and not how the schedule is constructed. The Oilers suck after 6 games. This does not mean the Oilers suck after 20 or even 10.
Last year they sucked after 40 and were afforded a longer leash than now, even as they try (unsuccessfully, albeit) to institute a new defensive system after a camp where they went without their top defensive defenseman. Mistake? Obviously! But thats all it is. The sentiment here is quickly becoming a consensus that they are a group of lazy incompetents and 97 has a foot out the door…. I would probably be able to take this all more seriously if the sample size between now and “Jeff Jackson is a brilliant hire and the Oilers are primed” is exactly 6 (six!) games. Deep breath here, people. Does this start cost them the division? Maybe. But we can’t even know that. What ever happened to never betting against Connor McDavid? You are a fickle group.
Go back and look at comments here when the were **out of a playoff position** waaaaay deeper into the season last year. Not near as nasty or panicked as now!
I wonder who has lost the plot. I think it might be everyone.
There’s a good chance we look back to this start as a distant bump in the road, a casualty of a failed attempt at innovation. That is far more likely than some seismic **2 weeks** where everything that was being built for years suddenly and without warning comes crashing down.
The level of catastrophizing suggests to me a deeply distrustful fanbase. Fair enough. Nothing to say there. But I’m not buying it. Not yet.
Exactly!
(I hope)
I respect the wide range of opinions and am prepared to be wrong just not there yet.
This is a good post.
My concern isn’t the record — there will be bumps along the way, even for good teams — it’s really the deployment. That has to be way better.
I see a lot of non communication and hesitation on the ice right now. Bouchard slaps the puck away from Campbell right to Hartman, that goal was a killer after a decent period.
I didn’t watch the whole game but i did see the Oilers pushing the wild in sections. Their breakdowns were brutal though. They simplified the offensive approach last night and I thought played one of their better offensive games of the year.
Time to reset the D and simplify that. Allow players to play instinctually. For god sakes talk out there too!
Perhaps the greatest error of this era was unforced: With plenty of experienced coaches available to hire including Maurice, Holland hires yet another rookie coach to cut his teeth on this roster in its prime.
I veteran coach has been through rough patches like this and knows what to tweak and what to leave. Woody panics all the time like he did in the playoffs last year and changes everything which doesn’t inspire confidence from the players nor this fan.
This is what he must be listening to in his head: “Do something, anything!”
Or like McLellen or Tippett, right? Experienced coaches are always the best choice 😉
Bruce Garrioch
@SunGarrioch
·
3h
Sources say the NHL’s department of player safety has informed the #Sens there won’t be a one game suspension for Brady Tkachuk and coach D.J. Smith won’t be fined for the incident late in against Buffalo. It will be up to the officials to decide if the instigator is erased.
I disagree strongly.
Remember how the league viewed Nurse’s “instigator” penalty in last year’s playoffs vs the Knights.
That’s what I was alluding too yes.
Hippocrits. We weren’t allowed to complain because ‘the rule is the rule’. Well it isn’t, as seen here. It’s ‘3rd rounder to Calgary’ in a different suit.
Might as well kick the Oilers while they are down!
This window of concentrated forward talent is closing and the post-mortem won’t be pretty if it ends with best results already in the books.
One of the biggest errors which was brushed off as a flesh wound at the time was the loss of Adam Larsson at the tender age of 28. That’s what this team needs and needed for the past two years. I think we win Stanley last year with Adam Larsson patrolling the right side for 28 minutes a night.
Average defenseman that can keep the puck out of the net should be carefully guarded. Top pairing Dmen are worth their weight in gold and should be protected at all costs.
Here is the Oilers protected list from the Seattle expansion draft:
Ouch
Larsson was a UFA for the expansion draft and chose to leave Edmonton. I don’t know if there is much the Oilers could have done.
This is the narrative created by us after the loss but the facts are:
This was very bad management of a tier 1 asset. One of Holland’s biggest errors.
I agree. Lardons story reeked, I don’t buy it. I think he was pissed or felt slighted. Then his buddy was gone, he knew it but we didn’t at the time, but he knew Oscar was done.
I felt there was a handshake deal where hHolland promised to sign him and so he didn’t have to protect him. It went sideways.
Yes, Holland was super lackadaisical when it came to re-signing Larsson because he took it for granted and assumed he would be an easy signing. Very shortsighted. Management also overvalued so many mid-tier players, such as Nurse, McLeod, Ceci, Pulju, Kassian, etc. and most importantly, has never fixed goaltending. Just a failure in my opinion.
Adam Larsson’s father died on a trip to Edmonton to visit him and he later said he wanted a fresh start after that.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/krakens-larsson-ready-fresh-start-losing-father-edmonton/
Jared Bednar and Jon Cooper were once rookie coaches who took their first teams to Cups.
Goes to show just how shitty the roster was before Holland showed up.. Yeah, he mucked some things up, but the cupboards were fairly bare and he did a decent job acquiring actual talent that wasn’t in the system.. This team hasn’t had depth since 2006..
The defensive system is being blamed here today, but I think this is an attribution error. Most of the problem lies with a handful of players who are executing poorly. That’s all it takes.
I know it wasn’t popular when he was a rookie, but I’m going to repeat the same thing from back then. Bouchard is a very poor defender. He doesn’t read the play well, doesn’t understand danger, and is two steps behind when under pressure therefore easily coughing up the puck. The book is out on him and all the teams are keying on him in his own end. At least two forecheckers, easy Dzone turnover and 10 bell chance.
Unfortunately, this is not something that is easy to fix and certainly not something that can be easily outscored. He’s a liability and the team would experience addition by subtraction if they could address this problem.
This organization as a whole needs to look in the mirror and change fast because they are absolute coach killers. It’s the same thing every time, a good coach comes in, gets some good results, and then overtime fall into the pit of natural coach biases (playing vets over young unproven players, overplaying McDrai, bad roster decisions etc). The oilers need to change their process not the coach. Right now it’s the everyone sit back, give the coach full autonomy and let one man make all the decisions with no push back. Like seriously Tippet and Woody are both good coaches and it’s no coincidence they are both having the same shortcomings, in a league as a competitive in the NHL you have to proper support and processes for every day to day decision.
Bouchard
Teaching defense is the easiest part of the game. He clearly does not have the capacity to learn how to play defense whether it is zone or man to man. This has been the book on him since the draft I believe when he showed ok defensively last part of last year was an anomaly. The organization needs to reset its expectations. This tiger can’t change his stripes. Watching him play defense makes me sick to my stomach. 3RD pair sheltered PP guy.
Bouchard is 24 and should be well past the time that he learns the defensive aspects of the game.
In many ways, he reminds me of Vancouver’s Tyler Myers.
Myers is big, a plus skater, a very good passer and a former rookie of the year who has been unable to defend at the NHL level and is called the “Chaos Girrafe” in Vancouver.
Thanks to Jim Benning he’s getting paid $6 million per to play third pair in Vancouver.
Lucky for the Canucks his contract expires at the end of the season.
How in the world is Adam Erne not on waivers today?
Lane Pederson is not the answer to what ails the team but Adam Erne is a net negative player that makes the team worse (I’d rather play short a player) and Pederson is an offensive center with NHL experience that can at least provide some speed and skill to the lineup and is no worse, probably better, than Erne as a defensive player.
Sutter was plan A. Pederson was B. Lavoie will be traded for scraps because of personal reasons.
As i responded to you the other day, this is simply not correct.
Pederson was signed on July 1 and Sutter’s PTO was signed in mid-August.
Going in to camp in September that may have been the case but it wasn’t.
On July 1, when Pederson (and Caggiula) was signed, Holland was clear they were signed for AHL depth and that he was searching for an NHL 4C.
As the summer went on, his flexibility to find a legit NHL 4C disappeared as both the McLeod and Bouchard cap hits came in higher than original expectations and Holland was left with under $1MM for the 12F.
The right play would have been to move out Kulak and his $2.75 million cap hit and use that space to acquire an accomplished 4C and slot Broberg as 3LD.
Vancouver was able to acquire Pius Suter, Teddy Blueger and Sam Lafferty, all who can play C for less money despite being cap strapped.
Holland went the easy route again (lazy) I’m sure Sutter’s agent talked to Holland in late spring advising him Sutter was working out like a demon and would be good to go come October. Go back to the start of training camp the whole narrative was around Sutter and what a perfect fit he was. Stuffer, Gregor, Spector etc except Lowetide were polishing Sutter’s apple hourly all the whole dissing Lavoie like a used car salesman.
Absolutely 100% agree. This board is bonkers for going after Bouchard and leaving Erne, Janmark, and Brown alone.
The only thing you are missing is that Erne was in the Red Wings org and that should mean nothing but in this case it means everything.
The more I think about it the first thing Woody should change is their neutral zone coverage. It’s good to be able to play 1-3-1 if defending a lead but this doesn’t play to our teams strength. Oilers don’t have many fast Dmen that can go back on a island retrieve the puck and make a smart outlet pass. This defence strength are their size and reach which is good for denying zone entries, and are better suited for the quick 10 ft support passes. Then they can use their other strength which is our centre depth, I remember when woody first came on how low he got the centres to come back check and support our dmen which made it so easy for them for quick outlet passes and made getting out of our zone with possession so simple. Please get back to that!
As a proud Southern Albertan I will pass along:
Leading Rookie Scoring in NHL – RIDLY GREIG
Leading Rookie Scoring in WHL – TERIK PARASCAK
Ridly’s Dad played 125 NHL games between Hartford and Philly.
Terik’s Dad played Division 1 NCAA. Terik is draft eligible for 2024.
Both are born and raised Lethbridge, Ab products. Watched both of them and proud of both of them.
We’re certainly enjoying Parascak here in PG. #4 ranked team in the nation.
There isn’t any defensive system in existence that teaches standing there staring at the play.
And yet, this is what the Oilers have been doing. Especially in front of the net. Every defender.
Further – yes Bouchard needs to sit. If anyone, literally anyone in the league played that game last night, they’d need to sit. One game. Get the bird’s eye view. Back on the horse.
Agree with this. I love systems and strategy, but it doesn’t matter what strategy the Oilers execute. Hell, they might be changing defensive strategies and I wouldn’t even know because the execution is very poor. It’s not every Dman. It’s only really 1 or 2, but that’s all it takes.
The Oilers have to look at the Seattle Kraken, look at themselves in the mirror, and figure it the F out
They should make Mike Smith goaltender and coach, just for some shits and giggles.
In comparison of NHL teams, the Oilers are a bit unique. And NHL teams have them figured out. Without getting into them, other teams understand thier weaknesses and exploit them.
Butter soft play and repeated mistakes continue to occur. Why? Players like Ekholm and Kulak arrived with coverage skills and now lost them? Why?
Slow for puck retrievals, little puck moving, invisible boxing out, soft, soft, soft. This doesnt mean fighting or running someone through the boards. It means intensity and battle. If you are a puck mover, then get going and do it with authority.
I would seriously look at letting Manson go.
Roster wise, top 6 was good, and Brown worth it with creativity applied. We’ll see. Third line fast and skilled. Foegele, MacLeod, Holloway is a good mix.
Forth line is the mistake. There is lots to like about Ryan and Janmark, or Erne, but what are they adding that is not already on the team? There were others available, that added other elements. Like Shore previously, they landed on these guys too quickly.
Solutions?
Woody – a little humble pie might be in order. And listen to others as your judgement may be impaired here. Play the line up. Coach the line up. Turn the energy lose on the youth. Go and get some more youth. Turn the puck up, fast breakout through the middle, play offense.
Ceci is too slow. Broberg moves up and move the dam puck Broberg. And be a dick.
Bouchard needs limited to third pair – and get in a fight Evan, it really doesnt hurt much. Bring up Niemo to show them what a hit looks like. Or a puck mover, or Kemp, but make a change.
Holland needs a trade. Go get Kim Kostin back with money retained. Or somebody similar. Still have to wait on goalie for now.
Agree with much of this but also think Kulak and Ekholm having no/limited camp is a bad time to introduce a new defensive structure. They’re still playing into game shape and it’s chaos inc around them.
Adam Erne should never have been signed in the first place – as I posted before, I think he is a net negative player, he makes the team worse, and I’d rather play a man short.
Lavoie scored two one-timer goals last night but I can’t imagine that Ken Holland is thinking that he is the answer and, even if he gets the call, I don’t see Woody playing him more than 4-5 minutes – he has developed a past and a history already.
With that said, I don’t see how Erne isn’t replaced with Pederson given the loss of the center, Connor McDavid. It seems a no-brainer.
You catch LT’s chat with DNB yesterday? It doesn’t sound like Erne is going anywhere…DNB mentioned that Erne has 3 young kids and is living in EDM, so “the organization is not too keen on upending that situation”
Good decision for the team.
No, I did not hear that hit yesterday and thank you for the info.
I understand the “human element” but that’s absolute bullshit – Erne has not earned any loyalty like that from the Oilers and he should have been made very aware when he signed his TWO-WAY contract that Bakersfield is a real possibility.
Sam Gagner has a wife and kids in Edmonton – he’s happy as hell to go to Bako and he’s earned ALOT more than Adam Erne as far as loyalty, etc.
Agree 100%. Then compare this to the Vegas model of purging anyone and everyone in the name of winning a cup.
You do know the loyaly for Erne comes from another organization he played for.
That was a heartening game for the Condors last night – they were very good including Olivier Rodrigue who made 31 saves on 32 shots.
Lavoie scored on two one-timers – one on a 5 on 3 and one off the rush.
Pederson is a dominant AHL player – he may be one of those guys that is too good for the AHL but not good enough to impact at the NHL level.
Bourgault was impactful with his play-making.
Noel H. is a plus AHL d-man.
Gleason continues to do what we saw him do in exhibition – I have confidence that he might be able to fill in on the 3rd pairing and given some minutes and games if they do move on from one of Ceci or Kulak at some point this season or in the future.
Last night was, well, not good.
Bouchard was absolutely abysmal defensively and he has been quite poor defensively pretty much all season.
I just would like to note that he was also quite poor defensively to start last season, for quite a while, but was able to find his 2-way game as the season went on.
I’m not excusing his current level of play in that regard, just noting that he does have the ability to play better and be harder and make better decisions and, at some point, he will turn his game around in that regard.
What we’ve been seeing is not what we will always get – history tells us that.
Here is hoping that, at some point, as this player continues to develop and gain experience and learn, that he become more consistent and the bad defensive games become more of the exception and he doesn’t stack them on top of each other.
One guy playing as poorly as Bouchard, brings the whole jenga tower down. Sit him one game. Bring him back. If he sucks again. Sit him for a game. Bring him back.
And someone mentioned that playing a defensely suspect offensive-gifted D with one’s best shutdown D would NEVER work.
The sad thing is that the Oilers have six other D who can play, and Woodcroft won’t demand accountability from the slacker.
Erne over Lavoie was just batshit crazy on Holland’s part.
Woodcroft not playing the young guys decent minutes is just batshit crazy.
It’s sad, but Bouchard had an outsized impact on this game. He made horrible mistakes at exactly the wrong time. Minnesota wasn’t looking like an all star squad out there either and their goalie was at least as bad as Campbell.
Individual errors kill this team. So many times last year, Oilers blew an in-control game on the back of one or two boneheaded errors.
There is a great Athletic article up on zone vs. man on man. Bottom line, Oilers have to ride this out and learn to play this system.
They will not be able to win a cup playing man on man. They may do well in the regular season, but they won’t beat an elite team in a 7 game series.
I agree Oilers can’t win the cup playing man to man.
The question is – can Evan Bouchard defend in either system.
Full disclosure – have always and still love Bouchard.
I do want Evan to sit for a game or two . Or at the very least be a 3rd pairing PP specialist
for now.
I think this is why they changed to box plus one. It is easier to play, and under high pressure protects the house where the team has its biggest weakness, giving up stat busting open looks
I agree they should ride it out until some get healthier and everyone settles in. This D system is supposed to make breakouts easier which they also can struggle with. Closer puck support and moving as a unit, not having the D need to make 2 line passes because the forwards are gone
That is the only major change Curlock wrote at ON is they are using the same OZ 1-2-2 which they have done well, and gone back to the NZ 1-1-3 that Woody used when he came in. It reduced GA, and he switched back last season to what Tipp used the 1-2-2 and GA went back up, also giving up more rush attacks
It will come, health will increase and rust shaken off. And there is no one better to replace Woody with at the moment. Although if Huddy was interested I’d have him as D coach
By playoffs it may be a good thing that the D system was changed. The other one did not fare well in playoffs, breakdowns are more costly and that isn’t good when the pressure cooker is at full tilt. They aren’t used to this system yet but will get there. And maybe the challenge ahead will be better for them than sailing through the season as was expected
Wonder how the dressing room is these days? Does Brown get automatic entry into the 97, 29, 25 clique? Is Hyman and Campbell sitting in the corner lamenting their decision to come to Edmonton. Are rookies and sophomores pissed off about ice time? Nobody knows, but I’m betting the boys don’t go out much as a group for beers, or Greek food.
Considering the team is mostly the same as last year, and they were quite close, I can’t imagine what would have happened to a team as close as they seemed last year and in training camp.
Greg Wyshynski
@wyshynski
One stat that really stands out in this early season @EdmontonOilers
disaster:
* EDM is 11th in preventing high-danger shot attempts (5v5)
* EDM is 32nd(!) in high-danger save% with Skinner and Campbell combining for an unfathomable .605 sv% — the only team under .700
7:38 am · 25 Oct 2023
·61.8K
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The defensive zone play has been sub-par (especially considering the opponents), however, the goalies are still a major part of the issue.
The goaltenders are not the problem. The high danger chances the OIlers are giving up are not ordinary high danger chances.
Wut?
The goaltending is ghastly.
Horrific.
League worst.
World’s worst?
Maybe.
Both can be true. The goalies are awful and the defence too. See Skinner on the PP goal two games ago.
Goalies and defensive play and coaching have all been trash.
People need to re-watch Joel Erickson Ek’s goal again from last night.
Ek first has the puck behind the net -RNH goes to him- but then quickly leaves when Ek passes it away up the side boards. ( Nurse goes to where the pass was sent)
Ek receives the pass back from the side boards and walks out ( left side) – *uncontested* to score.
We have to lead the league year in year out in absolutely uncontested and nearly uncontested goals allowed. ( not including break-aways)
I *think* this is a case of players getting caught between defending man and defending zone. But am not 100% sure. ( Nurse played man imo/ RNH zone)
Either way – RNH at the age of 30 and Nurse now 28 – allowed an uncontested goal.
For me, this play highlights the kinds of goals we saw last playoffs and have been a regular feature of what makes the Edmonton Oilers the last few years.
I am just using this play as an example – that our HD shots we give up tend ( seem ) to always skew to the ‘ten bell ‘chance variety that have a much higher success rates.
Absolutely. They need a new category for the Oilers – EXTREME high danger. EHD.
Didn’t catch the third period as I was playing last night. I think I remarked that I had to make a financial decision this fall of either paying my league fees or paying for my Sportsnet+ to catch all the games. Playing and coaching seem to be taking a lot of time, so my decision was to pay my league fees. From what I’ve been reading and hearing, this seems a long ways from what was expected. I hear tons about the defensive zone and the stats seem to be leaning that way in a negative light.
I’m not sure what Woodcroft did this summer by changing the system, but any defensive system ends and begins with four basic principles; Pressure, Stall/Contain, Support, Transition. From what I’ve heard and briefly seen (via YouTube highlights), this team is not executing the pressure principle very well, and if you don’t do that, the rest of the system will break down and forget about stall/contain, support, and transition. There is nothing wrong with playing a zone, but the nearest player to the puck, has to apply pressure to the puck carrier, and if it’s a one on one, you decide to attack or contain depending on, if the puck carrier has good posession (puck in skates = attack), you can clearly see their crest (side numbers or rear numbers = attack). This idea of guarding a zone (slot area) is not working. This team gives up too much ice, time, and space to the opposition.
For example, on the first goal last night where Erme and Ryan are practically touching and waiting, a quick pass broke down that entire system, all because neither player pressured the puck carrier at the blueline. Hey, even an old fart like me can do something with a puck if you give me time and space.
When I teach defensive zone, we start by the coaches passing the puck below the goal line, and having the team adjust their positioning. If the puck is in the corner, D1 pressures/contain, F1 supports D1, D2 covers the front of the net by going far post out (to prevent back door), F2 covers their point (1-2 stick lengths away, toe caps up ice, head on a swivel), and F3 will sag down slightly in the slot. To progress, the coach yells “regroup” everyone touches up on the centre line and adjust to the puck position upon re-entry. You then add in the points, so they have to adjust accordingly.
Somehow, I just don’t see that happening right now based on my brief looks. No pressure, no support, which ultimately leads to no transition.
But that’s the view from the old coach.
I hope this team can turn it around. I really do.
This is great stuff – thanks for the breakdown!
Outstanding work! Thank you for this.
Exactly right coach. I watched as best as I could last night, and most seem to be executing well. It’s only really a handful of players that seem keen to just go with instincts like some kind of pond hockey game rather than do what they are supposed to which brings the whole thing down.
Hey CC, you and I spoke about the box plus 1 like Vegas after last playoffs and we both thought it a good idea. That’s what they changed to. Seems they are still adjusting
They’ve totally gone to that, but the players haven’t bought in or they don’t fully grasp it at all. THe reason why I know this, is that they are not applying any pressure to the puck carrier, which is a very basic defensive principle. Maybe they will figure it out, but right now, they look totally lost. I would be interested in seeing what happened when T Bay and Vegas went to those systems. Did they face the adjustment period?
Yes that would be interesting I am sure there was an adjustment period
At least the misery is good for the blog. Double the average comments. Hot outta the gate this morning.
Hockey players hate getting called soft. The Wild played like Dean Evason looks and the Oil played like Woody looks.
Just a joke, you put anyone in a room with Evason they’ll look small.
I can’t say the Oil played “Devilishly handsome” last night, but you do you 😛
I doubt anyone – even internally – disagrees with the sentiments today. The new system isn’t working. Camp was a waste. They need to revert back, roll lines. Simplify. Whatever it is it isn’t working. No flow and it looks listless cause it is.
Maybe theres some disagreement about Erne v Lavoie or where Holloway fits but those are really tangental when faced with such dysfunction.
If we know it, they know it. The answer are clear and decisions will be made. But we’re in the passenger seat, and if you’ve ever been with a driver you don’t entirely trust behind the wheel you want them to hit that break or make that turn sooner than them. Because they are driving, they have a feel for the car.
They have given themselves a window to test drive this thing. Its not working, but they aren’t idiots.
We’re all slamming the new defensive structure. Maybe this is something that is just going to take some time to implement.
Ergo, I would rather pay a price now to see a very complete defensive team later which IMO will have a higher probability of winning a cup. Dominating the regular season is nice but a guarantee of nothing.
To be clear, I am 100% bullish and behind Evan Bouchard. He is an excellent player who will figure it out. I am also 100% bullish and behind Broberg, and would like to see his minutes increased substantively.
I can’t remember the last time we saw a D man as bad as Bouchard at defending. Not even through the decade of darkness. I actually think half the guys on my beer league team could beat him one on one. He has offensive ability on the power play but let’s be honest other D men have done very well in that position. If Makar is a 10 out of 10 in offensive abilities I would put Bouchard at a 7.5 or 8. He is not a great skater, he has vision and a good shot. We don’t see him undress players out there. Right now Bouchard is a 0 out of 10 at defending. Add that up and he is a 4 out of 10 defence man. Are we at the point of taking Bouchard out of the lineup to give the team a chance to win? Right now he is good for being directly responsible for 2 goals against a game.
Bouchard has still played less than 200 NHL games.
He is learning a new system that even the vets are struggling with, guys like Nurse and Ekholm.
Last night’s game is not who Evan Bouchard is.
The bigger problem is that last night is who guys like Brown, Erne, Janmark et al are, and it’s funny that this board has their targets set on the wrong guy.
I would much rather live with mistakes from young players than from vets, because the upside down the road is generally worth it. But I do think Bouchard is at a point in his career that it needs to be ironed out and that starts with some accountability. Successive coaches on this team don’t seem to be concerned about this, whether it relates to Bouchard, or generally how ice time is doled out to all players. One game in the pressbox would not hurt him, and looking at the game through a different lens may help him. If they are reluctant to do this, like others below have said, play him sheltered 3rd pair mins and PP in the short term and slowly work his mins back up if he is keeping the mistakes to a minimum. He has all the tools to be a great Dman, but if there is no accountability then he will continue to make the same mistakes.
This falls at the feet of the coach. Bouchard obviously didn’t get worse at hockeying over the last 6 months, but he is clearly costing multiple GA per game from shoddy D. He hasn’t clicked with the new coverage, and the coach keeps throwing him to the wolves against top comp.
This makes sense. The coach only has a limited number of options, and with McDavid’s injuries, you can’t sit Bouchard.
So doing the same thing and hoping for improvement is an option.
Change the system.
Call up a d-man from the Bake.
Make a trade.
Or you change the coaches.
Either way. We wait.
Theo Peckam? Just plain bad
If the Oilers can in good conscience say the decision to keep Erne and send down Lavoie was about winning hockey games, it is time (again) to re-evaluate the process.
Same goes for playing Broberg less than 10 minutes, Janmark 17+, Foegele 13 in a game where he was on fire, and on it goes.
There are going to be slumps over the course of the year, but shoddy personnel decisions are not excusable at any time.
I see Erne is an ex-Red Wing. Hah. Honestly, they deserve it. Cup or bust season and a lame duck GM making decisions based on who is friends with who and a geographic region close to his heart.
I get that Connor Brown is coming off a massive injury and it will take time to get up to speed, but without a massive improvement, not waiving him prior to game 10 is Chiarelli-level incompetence, like buying out Eric Gryba rather than burying his entire salary in the AHL.
If they waive him, they are likely reneging on some handshake agreement. It would be unethical if that is the case, so what do you do? I know what Vegas would do. Holland has boxed himself into a corner. You can make up the money in some way, so I would do it. Easy for any of us to say sitting behind a keyboard, but it’s the best decision for the team.
I was always thinking game 6 needed to be the decision point for Brown. If he doesn’t look ready, you send him down to see if he finds his legs in the AHL. If he does, you bring him back up and he has 3 games of runway in the NHL before you have to make the final call.
If he gets claimed, well, you need that money for next year to buyout Campbell (which should have been done this year!) and address the goaltending.
As Jimmy points out, this probably violates some handshake deal and pisses off McDavid, so it’s all moot.
I am hesitant to blame the goaltenders, even with such horrendous save percentages. If you watched the game last night, you saw Campbell at his best. Technically and positionally “wrong” but incredible reactionary saves that gives his teams a boost. When hes on, hes ON, and it works! The 2nd period was a masterclass is Cambpbell goaltending, it can work and he kept us in the game. Everyone saying “we need a save at the right time”, we got one! and two! and three! But it wasn’t enough because the Wild kept coming, and the Oilers defence and offense had no answer.
There are only 7 goalies in the league who have faced more High danger shots than Campbell:
Thing is, Campbell has played fewer minutes than any of the other goalies. Campbell’s .665 HD save percentage is good for 60th out of 66 goalies who have played this year. His Low Danger Save percentage and his medium danger save percentages are fantastic.
Campbell’s .970 (32 saves on 33 shots) Medium danger save percentage is 16th out of those 64 goalies (lots of low minutes ahead of him rn) and his low danger save percentage is 1.000 (29 saves on 29 shots)
Campbell is saving what he should be, and can’t save anything high danger. Simple solution? Stop allowing high danger shots! Except the Oilers can’t do that…. except… they can?
Remember how low Campbell was in High Danger Save percentage? Well guess what. Skinner is even lower (all numbers are 5v5 btw…): Skinner is 64th out of 66 in high danger save percentage. The only two lower than him are Joel Hofer (Stl) and Kevin Lankinen (NSH) [interesting how many goalies the Oilers have faced are on these lists…]
Skinner has only faced 9 high danger shots this season. He’s stopped 4 of them. Clearly he needs to be better, but the more interesting question is: Why are the Oilers allowing only 3 High Danger Shots a game when Skinner is in net, but over 7 a game when Campbell is in net?
Could this be puckhandling? Theres a lot of debate, but in my opinion, Skinner is a better puckhandler than Campbell, while prone to the occasional massive error (a la Smith). Campbell is good at cutting off the puck, but doesn’t place it the same, is there a difference in breakouts when they’re in net?
Is this rebound control? A controlled save early in a rush cuts off the opportunity for another team to regain the puck and apply pressure. A sustained zone shift could have 1-3 High Danger chances if the goalie can’t cover the puck. Skinner’s rebound control is miles better than Campbell, and I don’t think there’s much argument there. Even if you believe Campbell is better than Skinner, Campbell’s rebound control is atrocious, even when he’s playing well. Are rebounds a big factor? Campbell has faced 14 rebound shots, Skinner only 4 in approximately the same amount of time.
I think the bigger issue, is that Skinner has been playing very poorly, but the team plays better around him. I’m not sure why, but thats the crux of the issue. The Oilers CAN play well, and go periods where we dominate like, 20-1 in shots. Typically, thats when Skinner is in net, but why can’t we play that way when Campbell is in net? He’s playing better than Skinner according to the stats and to the eyes, but the team has continually let him down when he’s been in.
On the D:
Bouchard made several errors yesterday. That’s young D. I am still bullish on the man because I remember what his game looks like when he is on. I think you bury this and move on.
Nurse I thought had a pretty strong game up until the third. On the Ek goal, he drifted out to challenge the puck carrier. Maybe he made a mistake there, but Ceci was literally in no man’s land, completely out of the play. My personal take is Ceci has to rotate over to cover the net front man.
Ceci regressed big time last year and I don’t know why he’s being counted upon to play top 4 right now.
I don’t agree with Godot on everything — particularly his criticisms of Bouchard — but I think Nurse – Broberg should be a thing.
Ceci has actually been pretty good this year. And he definitely wasn’t the problem on the Eck goal. Nuge had Eck behind the net, and he let him go.
@who – 100%