The world of NHL procurement doesn’t resemble the olden days. There was thievery, tomfoolery and diabolical behavior in the highest offices in the league. The 1967 NHL Expansion Draft was a thing of beauty, rigged not only for the original 6 clubs but designed specifically for the Montreal Canadiens in order to protect their very best young players.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Can the Edmonton Oilers make room for Raphael Lavoie?
- New DNB: Oilers rewarded for their season’s most complete game in Heritage Classic win
- Lowetide: Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is spiking in an important area
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ injuries already a major story in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers count on any short-term help from AHL Bakersfield?
- Lowetide: Can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
- Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
THE TIME SAM POLLOCK STOLE A DECADE + WORTH OF STANLEYS
Let me explain. The 1967 NHL Expansion Draft consisted of 20 rounds, and took place on June 6, 1967. Pollock was the man in charge of putting together the draft rules (no conflict there!) and he did a wonderful job for Montreal that day. At first each of the established teams were going to be permitted to protect 8 skaters and 1 goalie, but the original 6 teams felt it was too harsh and they moved the bar to 11 skaters, 1 goalie, and any junior aged players signed the previous season. ALL of the NHL teams benefited from the junior age rule, Boston didn’t need to protect Derek Sanderson or Bobby Orr, Toronto had no need to protect Jim McKenny, New York didn’t have to find a slot for Billy Fairbairn or Walt Tkazcuk.
Montreal was still very vulnerable though, owing to the rich junior and minor league system they had built up over time (the Habs had two AHL teams and a couple in the old WHL they would send extra prospects to like the Seattle Totems) and Pollock came up with a plan that went like this: no player who had just completed his first year pro (and fell outside the “junior” rule) could be drafted until after the 10th round. This may be one of the smartest moves by a General Manager in the game’s history, and here’s why:
Because the Habs had such a deep and rich system, they were losing more than one player per round. So, whereas a team like Boston was unable to protect a HHOF goalie like Bernie Parent because the rules made it so, and Chicago was unable to pull back any of their kids because no one was drafting any of their players, Montreal was able to protect (in order) Carol Vadnais, Serge Savard, Danny Grant and Jacques Lemaire and run zero risk that they be exposed to any of the 6 incoming teams. Plus they kept all their veterans like Claude Larose (they made a deal with the North Stars so Dave Balon was taken first and sent Andre Boudrias and others over after the draft), Claude Provost (an outstanding two-way winger) and future HHOFer Dick Duff (although his qualifications for the Hall are once again called into question: he was exposed to the expansion draft at age 31!). The list of fine young players given up in the 1967 Expansion Draft goes like this:
- Boston: G Bernie Parent, LW JP Parise, LW Ted Irvine, RW Bill Goldsworthy, D Joe Watson
- Chicago: D Ed Van Impe
- Detroit: D Bob Wall, RW Real Lemieux
- Montreal:
- New York: D Rod Seiling
- Toronto: LW Lowell MacDonald, RW Bill Flett, G Gary Smith
Sam Pollock was a ruthless administrator who would stop at nothing to protect his empire. Can anyone really argue with that? And further, would Sam Pollock argue with that?
I think he’d be proud of it. The culprit here is the NHL, who have time and again approached the game itself with little care and respect in terms of keeping things credible and fair. Giving Sam Pollock a pen and blank pages to fill in for the expansion rule book contributed directly to massive problems with expansion in many cities. It created the desperation that caused team’s like the Oakland Seals to send away their first round draft picks for Norm Ferguson and Ernie Hicke.
And it doomed 5 of the original 6 to a 15-year romp to the Stanley by the Montreal Canadiens.
THE VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
The current “Sam Pollock” is the ownership and management group that drives Vegas Golden Knights. If that group of people ran the Oilers, you absolutely know several of the current roster players would have been flushed ages ago. Vegas is as ruthless as Delores Umbridge. Edmonton’s management currently doesn’t want to send Adam Erne down, or Mattias Janmark. I think the gap in quality between Vegas and the Oilers is overcomeable, but management needs to toughen the hell up.
Noon today, Sports 1440, we’ll be joined by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic to talk Oilers in October. We’ll also talk about the big NBA trade, the Vegas Golden Knights and the World Series. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I love the idea of Nugent-Hopkins between Kane and Hyman. Give him the 2 best wingers. Split Draisaitl and McDavid up. Give each of them a youngster (Holloway, Lavoie). And give each of them a veteran checker (Foegele, Brown). If you’re the opposition coach, which line do you throw your best D out against?
Lavoie – McDavid – Foegele
Brown – Draisaitl – Holloway
Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Hyman
Will never happen. Agents, contracts, and Old Dutch’s promises made to lure players here determine who plays in the top 6 with who.
Many decisions have been made in the history of this organization that were not based on winning games
Kings just punking the Leafs.
A 2:45 shift in the offensive zone to end the second period.
3-0.
4-1 final.
Kings punking the Leafs, HH trolling Oilers fans…
Same as it ever was….
Imagine you are an NHL GM.
You are eight games into the season. Your bottom six has combined for 1 f u cking assist on the year.
You decide to make a change.
You have a prospect who, by all accounts, is dominating the AHL.
You decide to let said prospect wither on the vine.
Instead, you sign an NHL journeyman known for his slow boots and complete lack of defensive acumen.
Do other teams make moves like this?
The Oilers are not a serious team.
If Sam Gagner is the answer, you’re asking the wrong question.
Who’s going to clock in with the higher top speed, Gagner or Brown?
Here’s a hint, Brown’s top speed clocks in slower than Lucic’s.
JP will point out that Brown has more speed bursts even adjusting for games played.
Still Tkachuk is slower than even Brown
https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/8479314
Holland has lost the plot he knows he’s being dismissed after this year. The Erne scenario from the PTO to his signing as a plug and play was baffling and should scare all Oiler fans. Add in the Sutter push that they were trying to sell on us while verbally giving cheap little shots to Lavoie when ever his name was mentioned was strange. Jackson and Coffey better rubber stamp any of Hollands moves as it is quite clear to me that Hollands going to try to take care of his buddies before he sails away.
G & R
And not Guns and Roses. The old GM’s answer to who the good players are
I guess in your late 60’s mid 30’s are Spring Chickens and definitely not Green Bananas
If any of you aren’t sick of reading my thoughts, you can listen to them tonight as well as I’ll be on Edmonton Sports Talk at 9:
https://twitter.com/oilerslive/status/1719485912319451364
Lavoie was on with Gregor today (scheduled prior to today’s events) and has a great attitude:
“You have to find ways to contribute without scoring. You can’t score every game and learning to do the little things that help your team win like puck battles, be physical, make smart dump ins and do it every shift. It is difficult to be consistent. You have to work at it,” Lavoie on finding consistency.
“The goal isn’t to get to the NHL as quick as possible, it is to stay in the NHL as long as possible. At the same time I’d love to play seven minutes and sit on the bench in Edmonton. There are pros and cons and you have to be patient and keep getting noticed,” Lavoie #Condors
Sounds like a smart kid who understands patience is a virtue.
Sounds like a smart kid who understands he has to suffer fools.
Him and his agent are playing the game he doesn’t want Raphael to be known as a problem child around the league.
Sounds to me like there’s a (shock horror) plan in place for Lavoie and that the kid, and his agent, have bought into it.
I’ve been very keen to see him brought up given the fact that he seems to be dominating in the AHL (player of the week and all that). But. Maybe I need to calm my tits and wait for this to play out.
Even though we won the Super Bowl yesterday at the end of the day we are 2-5-1. Woody was double shifting a maimed Connor (craziness) our bottom 6 is on holidays drop Brown to the 3rd line use the big boy Lavoie in the top 9 somewhere. Lavoie is 23 he’s fricking ready for a real opportunity he’s earned it, Holland is being stubborn. Does anyone actually believe that Lavoie would be less effective than our entire bottom 6 including Brown.
I would love to sit down and have 3 or 4 pints of Guinness and shoot the shit with Raphael and his agent.
So you figure he’s stopped pissing on lawns, this soon??
Sounds like a kid who had a nice half a year realizing it takes a whole lotta commitment to reach the Show.
Good on Oilers management for communicating that to him and awesome for the kid to realize and internalize that he needs to impact every way and not just on a score sheet.
By the way how is Bill Belicheck doing these days? Seems like he’s been exposed as a thoroughly mediocre coach when Tom Brady packed up to win another Super Bowl without that deadweight of Bill around his neck.
Now that Holland has awoken from his slumber and ditched his boy Erne and excitedly called up Gagner. He’s going to have to find another player or two out of the bush. You don’t want to call-up Bourgault this early in his development so I can see Holland trading Lavoie for a useful plug and play player.
Haven’t gone through all the comments but, from Woody:
1) McDavid had scheduled dental surgery which is why he didn’t practice – he’ll be on the ice tomorrow.
2) Kane was just managing bumps and bruises.
3) Janmark has had a couple of days – he’s day to day (not week to week or month to month).
Thanks for this OP, not sure I believe our coach when he talks injuries.
Touche!
3rd spin for Ganger.
I hope everyone can finally spell his name properly.
Gagné 🙂 Simon’s brother.
cousin to EBERLE (I think a few might remember this)
Sam Gag me, the solution to what ails the consensus pre-season Stanley Cup favourites.
This is the type of power move that a savvy veteran NHL GM makes to push his championship contenders over the top 9 out of 10 times, am I right?
Also, more doctors smoke Camels than any other cigarette, Go *cough, cough* Oilers!
I’ll take Gagner over Erne, sure, but I don’t think its the right decision.
Good for Sam, I’m happy for him and excited to see him play on Thursday night!
I am as well. Once an Oiler, always an Oiler.
After you stop playing you get hired for the office.
Puck IQ says he got crushed last year in GF% which is what matters. Against all comp
Somebody find Kenny a salt lick and pasture asap
Just a question for all. What do people expect from 4th liners? These are guys that play 4 to 8 min a game. Seems to me as goal scoring isn’t as important as goal suppression with an emphasis on pk ability. Physicality also being nice as anytime a 4th liner fights they pull a better player off the ice with them.
Outscoring – doesn’t matter if they do that by scoring a ton and giving up slightly less or giving up nothing but scoring slightly more. I’d take 51-52% or higher GF%.
One thing about that. Of the bottom 200 players for time on last year only 54 were better than 50% goals. 4th lines get targeted by coaches as often as possible. Hence my preference for suppression. Does it matter if they are outscored but suppress the opponents top 6?
Janmark is a good example for me, he doesn’t score much but he also helps keep shots and goals down when on the ice.
I’d still aim for above 50% goal share. There will always be the odd shift where your 4th line gets exploited by a bad matchup and sure you want to suppress at that point. But there has been a shift to stronger production from this group. Look at Vegas last year and a lot of the top teams. They can consistently put out 4th line players that can chip in offensively and hold their own defensively.
Agreed there are good 4th liners but not on many teams where 2 make such a large % of the cap. Those 2 contracts with a flat cap killed our chances of something nice
Stauffer says it’s Samwise.
Oilers just signed Sam to a one year, two way deal.
https://sportsnet.ca/
Who would of seen that one coming on Tuesday at Noon.
Pure comedy…
Only half of a job, out of two full jobs, has been done.
Erne being assigned is half of Holland’s job. Recalling Lavoie is the 2nd half.
It won’t be Pederson, he didn’t play on Saturday and Chaulk said yesterday he was having an MRI but unlikely to be ready for this weekend.
It could very well be Gagner or even Hamblin or Malone.
I have to think its Lavoie but, until that his locked in, only half a job is done.
The other half is on Woody and that is to actually play the man – not as an Erne replacement, 3-7 minutes on the 4th line but put the player in a position to succeed:
Kane/McDavid/Hyman
Holloway/Drai/Foegele
Lavoie/Nuge/Brown
Janmark/McLeod/Ryan
The top 9 wingers can be changed but that is the general set-up.
McLeod will still get PK time but he’s been struggling at 5 on 5 to make an impact – he’s been good as a 2-way player but has effectively played as a 4C recently.
This is about balancing the lines and putting players in positions to succeed.
Was watching VGK play the Habs last night, thought the Habs hung with Vegas pretty well. Couldn’t get over how deeply different these organisations are. Taste is subjective but hard to imagine two teams at more opposite ends of the spectrum. Heritage vs. whatever the hell Vegas’ aesthetic is. Part Bill and Ted, Part Liberace, very tacky. Other things too. Climate. Oldest cup winner, newest cup winner. Etc.
Interesting to read this history now, and think how Pollack and the Habs leveraged their status to strong-arm Cups through the expansion draft in defiance of change, while Vegas “strong-armed” (an offer they couldn’t refuse) the NHL in order to leverage the expansion draft toward (at least one) Cup for them.
Wow.
Trick or Treat?
If there is someone out there that is slower than Adam Erne….I present to you 34 year old Sam Gagner.
Slow in his late 20’s….hit a wall at 30….and now in his mid 30’s.
Had assumed Gagner’s signing was for the Condor’s.
He’s still better than Erne.
Might be….but Sam’s defensive prowess is legendary around the NHL.
And if he wins a board battle along the wall – it will be a first.
If he is up in show to play wing that might be important.
I grant to you his hands are – infinitely – softer than the plumber Adam Erne.
Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
Forward Adam Erne has been placed on waivers for the purpose of assignment.
#LetsGoOilers
12:04 PM · Oct 31, 2023
Flames might claim him. They could use some upgrades….
Perfect timing, pettiness levels high. Well done. 10/10
Prediction. Ken Holland: “Play it again, Sam”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozfkzgVjIlk
Gregor saying it’ll be Gagner coming up because Pederson is banged up and they don’t want Lavoie playing 4th line minutes.
Gagner might be just as slow as Erne …
Ha!
Now that would be too funny….
“Lavoie, we sent you down because we are in cup or bust mode, and we can’t have you making rookie mistakes”
“But you sent down some vets because they are making bad mistakes and aren’t scoring”
“That’s right”
“So will I get called up?”
“No”
“Why not”
“Because you are playing too well in the AHL right now and we don’t want to mess up your rhythm. Look when you have 16 years of NHL experience like Sam Gagner does, then we’ll give you a call”
Gold….Pure gold.
I can agree with this. Is Lavoie a better option than Holloway, McLeod or Foegle? If not we just need a 4th liner that can saw off goal % and hits and fights while playing solid defense and pk some. This may not be Gagne but options are limited. I see Lavoie coming up when there is an ltir in the top 9.
They picked role players for Team Canada in 1996 Olympics. They picked the best players for Team Canada in the 2000 Olympics and mostly after.
They lost in 2006 because of the strike and they stuck with the old guys because they didn’t trust the young guys who didn’t play much.
Woodcroft has to allocate ice time better.
With respect to Adam Erne, this makes no logical sense.
While I understand the human element, any sort of assurances related to Erne having his family set up in Edmonton should not have been given, in my opinion.
I mean this was a player that signed a TWO WAY deal off a PTO and is a clear tweener (at best) and should have been made very aware that he could be on waivers and assigned at any time.
He is barely being played by the coach (on merit) and there are options pressing up that look to have every reasonable possibility of helping the NHL team right now, more than Adam Erne.
I don’t get it.
I still think he has some dirt on one of the coaches or higher ups. No other explanation.
Perfect timing. Erne was just sent down.
Now we can all move on to the next perceived injustice that the Oilers want to inflict on us.
They have 4 minutes allocated to that line/player. Maybe they’d rather Lavoie play 20 in the A.
The GM is famous for overripening. That we don’t like it has never seemed to bother him.
Edit: John Chambers said it better
Flames pause contract talks with pending UFAs amid meltdown.
https://sportsnet.ca/
Well heck. You _can_ throw a little sunshine around now and then 🙂
Was looking closely at their cap situation.
They are totally hooped especially with the Huberdeau contract since it is essentially buyout proof.
I would imagine they will trade Lindholm, Hanifin, Tanev, Zadorov and Viadar which should yield significant draft capital and tank the season.
I don’t agree – as a rival fan, I hope they re-sign each of Tanev, Noah H. and Lindholm (who will likely demand $9MM plus for term to stay) – that would keep them in indefinite mediocrity.
Selling those UFAs off for good future, and opening cap space at the same time, well, that COULD benefit them going forward.
Man, snagging Tanev as a rental would be an Ekholm-like addition for our roster making a push. Unfortunately that would mean collaborating with, and sending valuable pieces to C*lgary.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Tanev end up back in Vancouver.
He does have a m ntc 10 team no trade list. Not sure where the Canucks will be at the deadline. Personally I would love for a 34 year defdman to sign a nice and long contract in Van next summer.
If he’s healthy. Sneaky good player would revolutionize Nurse’s world for a bit
Treliving panicked with the Huby / Kadri signings … will set the team back 5 – 8 years ….
Kadri is likely moveable with salary retention but Huberdeau seems cemented in place.
Perhaps the Flames will follow the Minnesota strategy and swallow the pain.
Is this about his skating?
LOL…not quite yet.
If you assume KH is wiser than fans think, and you give credit for him knowing that Duncan Keith would retire after one year and forgo the final year of that contract, and you give credit for him knowing Mike Smith would go to Robidas island and miss the second year of that contract, then certainly he has a plan for Connor Brown to not hit game #10.
If Brown plays game 10, KH loses assumed credit for Keith & Smith.
What an odd ledger to hold.
You should see my Chiarelli ledger
I really don’t think so.
The 10 game bonus only exists as a work-around of the current cap to give Brown a ~$4 million contract. This is not a true incentive-focused “performance bonus”. If the Oilers could have given him all the money up front, they would have.
Brown (reportedly) left money and term on the table elsewhere to take this contract, and I’d assume that came with a handshake agreement to hit those 10 games. Even if it doesn’t, I imagine agents around the league perceive it that way. Not allowing him to hit 10 games would be a slap in the face for a player who is trusting the organisation and likely won’t earn us any favours on future free agents.
Not to mention it was heavily reported how involved McDavid was in attracting Brown. I don’t think we’d want to do anything to make Connor1 look bad or cause tension with Connor2.
I know the responses will be something like “Free agents would prefer to see ruthless management that wants to win” and will judge Holland’s actions against fan perceptions of the player relation landscape, but I think it would be wiser to judge the player relation landscape through the lens of Holland’s actions.
I understand the idea of “ruthless management”, but bad-faith treatment of Brown could hurt us down the road imo.
What is important is when those ten games are played. The NHL is not a development league. He could play them in February if he has earned them.
and who is going to replace him that makes the team better? Noone, right?
If Smith hadn’t gone to Robidas Island he wouln’t have “had” to sign Campbell.
All the folks who were so pleased when Smith couldn’t play out his contract never seemed to account for the possibility the alternative could be far worse. Smith was a bargain for 3 years, too bad he couldn’t provide a fourth.
Chaulk on Oilers Now yesterday:
Pederson (who left Friday’s game and didn’t play Saturday) unlikely to play this weekend – having an MRI
Lavoie – Of course, Chaulk was glowing but did say they continue to work on a few things, namely his defensive zone exits and board play.
Bourgault – Chaulk was glowing about how much more confidant he is. I mentioned the board battle/play leading to one of Lavoie’s one-timers on the weekend and Chaulk brough it up about how strong he was on the puck, patient and skilled with it and how, last year, he would have dumped it in.
Geez hope Holland wasn’t listening to comments about Bourgault. Likely to be dealt for another 4 th line “veteran”!
Ok so very unpopular opinion here
I think McD and Drai need to be kept together.
Looking at stats and my own eye test I don’t believe Leon should center his own line without Connor. Over the last 3 seasons he is constantly losing the puck possession battle as seen by he corsi. He is out chanced as noted by his sub 50% Fenwick. He is an amazing offensive player so his goal total is slightly over 50% but the expected goal side is not so pretty.
The 2nd best player in the league should kill on the 2nd line but Leon does not. Please don’t get me wrong as I love having Leon but his 5v5 game does not thrive without a speedy and elite partner in crime.
You aren’t wrong. But then RNH is tasked with playing 2C. Can you get his data from the last 3 seasons and tell me how that makes Edmonton better?
Fair point
Drai vs RNH
Corsi 48.4 vs 47.8%
Fenwick 48.4 vs 47.3%
goals 51 vs 50.5%
Xgoals 47.2 vs 47.1%
Add in to that rnh has had lesser quality linemates than Leon and yes I do think the difference in playing mcdrai outweighs the small drop in having rnh center the 2nd line.
Yah, I would have guessed RNH was quite a bit worse …
anyway, looks like Woodcroft likes the McDrai and how it’s going …
Tbh honest I thought it was way worse as well before you brought up that very valid point
There is a small error here leons goal % is 52 not 51. My bad.
I thought there was a pair who were poor together – was it Drai and Hyman? So many stats thrown around this site but I seem to recall Drai did okay if he wasn’t with Hyman.
Drais results without connor and hyman are almost identical to what i posted above except for his goal % which jumps to 57%.
The best top line for goals was with mcd drai and hyman ….. 68% goals in just about 400 minutes over the last 3 years.
I believe it was Rob Brown on Sunday who said that due to McDavid’s injury (oblique?) it would be better for him to stay with Draisaitl until it heals. Taking faceoffs is very difficult with that kind of injury.
Connor isn’t superman he’s playing injured he needs some help and Leon is that player. No way Connor plays that game if we’re not 1-5-1 and it’s the Heritage Classic against our arch-enemy
Is that 5v5?
I’m seeing Draisaitl’s GF% without McDavid by season as:
2019-20 57.4%
2020-21 57.9%
2021-22 53.8%
2022-23 47.7%
2023-24 60.0% (3-2)
22-23 was the only season that looked like Draisaitl couldn’t drive his own line.
I guess since ‘last 3’ would include the 23-24 8-game sample it would make sense the 3 year number would be near 50% (as you said).
Still, I think the historical numbers strongly suggest that Draisaitl CAN win his minutes without McDavid as a linemate.
Ok yes all numbers are 5v5 on nst years did not include this year as the sample size is tiny. So 20-21 until 22-23
Leons goal % minus connor is 52% my bad and I blame fat fingers for the 1% mistyped.
My point still stands as McDrai outperforms the drop from rnh as 2c
Yeah I agree that the overall results with them together vs. apart are quite similar, and I’ve argued that in the past.
I don’t agree that Leon needs Connor to be successful though.
Ummm no sir together mcd is superior to either by themselves goals jump on that line to just under 60% together. Apart connor does 56 and Leon 52. Not a huge difference I guess but would you trade the 1.5% in goals with rnh for an extra 4% on the top line.
I do agree that Leon doesn’t need connor to be successful however he is better with than without.
Fair enough, the GF% for the 3 years you mention does show McDrai plus Nuge on the 2nd line as better than McDavid and Drai on separate lines.
If you include the 19-20 numbers it’s more even (I didn’t calculate the exact numbers). Though IIRC all the pre-19-20 numbers also favored them playing together.
Tbh I used the years I did because nst only does 3 seasons at once.
Don’t disagree with them being kept together. Just know that Leon has a trend of awful enhanced stat December’s that crater the numbers then runs hot to end the year. When averaging out the stats it doesn’t always paint a pretty picture but shows how over a year things change.
Running together works for now. We’ll have this conversation 5 more times before the season ends imo.
Lol truer words may never be spoken about this conversation.
On the stats side your statement was true last year when he picked up his possession play from Jan 1 but his goal % dropped to 50%
20-21 Leon kept his bad possesion stats but goal spiked to 57%
21-22 he still had sub 50% in possession stats but spiked his goal% to 54
These numbers are 5v5 from Jan 1 to end of year for each year and Leon without Connor.
Pre-cap + Billionaire owner, I think Drai would have been stapled to McD à la Kurri and both would have even more career points than they do currently. FAs would have made up any holes in the roster. Now tho..
Add that to a flat cap. The contracts for the dynamic duo just take up such a huge % of the cap it was hard to get the free agents. Kane was a risky bet that was forced by the cap, same goes for brown this year. Someone else did the numbers a bit ago for how much the cap might have been and it’s more than enough to have signed several more players like a top4 rhd and top 6 winger without future pain.
I’d argue that fenwick, corsi and expected goals aren’t great indicators for Drai’s play. He consistently has better GF% than what’d expected based on those stats. He’s a quality over quantity type of player so the aforementioned stats won’t really paint a great picture.
I think the together vs apart debate has to be based on GF%. Is the results with them together and RNH centering his own line outscoring the iterations with McDrai apart?
It would also be interesting to see if a top 9 with all of McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH centering seperate lines outscores the other top 9 versions. The sample size of all three on different lines would be miniscule though.
Ok took a look. Sample sizes over the same 3 years are not small for the top 9 question.
Connor vs drai vs rnh. All 5v5 and without the other 2.
Toi 1728-1649-1175
Corsi % 54-48.5-47.8
Fenwick % 54-48.5-46.3
Goals % 56-51-50.5
As to the first question mcdrai has a 60% goal share and rnh has a 50.5. You lose 1.5% (it is 1.5 not .5 as drai gets a bump playing with rnh as a lw) going from drai to rnh (both similar that they out score the possesion stats) but gain 4% going from connor to mcdrai.
— This in a nutshell is the rub. I’m really confident that you would have 3 lines that out score opponents in a large sample size with McD Drai and RNH as Cs
— The issue of course is that when the Oil go into tailspins (often) they panic grab the crack and load up line one to score.
— Alas we will never know if Kinger is right it seems.
— Massive organization fail.
Maybe loading up the best line is a normal reaction when you need to score a goal and not a panic.
That top line w Hyman rock a 68% goal share over 400 minutes in the past 3 seasons. If I was a coach and needed a goal ….. 68% is a darn good bet to make
Maybe a few more Red Wine Summits will bring clarity. It usually works for me.
Red Wine Summits do tend to be claret-y.
Thank you, Dr. Frasier Crane.
Maybe a few more Red Wine Summits will bring
clarityclaret. It usually works for me.Fixed it for you!
Lavoie
There are two schools of thinking on what’s happening here:
1) The organization has a bone to pick with Raphael & agent for accepting his qualifying offer. The Oilers are either vindictive or stupid and decided to risk losing the player on waivers and are punishing him with first-line minutes and the opportunity to round out his game in the AHL.
2) Woodcroft couldn’t envision giving Lavoie the 12+ mins / night he would’ve needed to continue to develop. Similar to Kailer Yamamoto in 2019, the organization bet that waiving Lavoie and giving him top-line minutes for 20-40 games would enable him to be NHL ready when he gets called up.
Is it Ken Holland’s MO to be vindictive with young players? Is Jay Woodcroft blind to the necessity of developing emerging talent? I’ll let you decide in the reply section.
I’ve stated here multiple times in the last few years…..absolutely love the Ken Holland development model. Raph is knocking down the door and will never look back.
I think the team departed from the model with Broberg…and he’s suffered for it.
Holland has repeated many times, his experience with going up and down and seeing the effect on others in the minors. He wants prospects to force their way up so when he does call them up they don’t go back down. Raph must be close…maybe one more good weekend in the Bake close
Holland doesn’t understand young hockey players today. Might have been true a generation ago, but not today. Look around the effing league.
Woodcroft has been in the NHL most of his career on veteran laden teams with old timey coaches, and it is impacting his judgement on deployment of young players.
Confirmation Bias.
How many young players on other NHL/AHL teams from the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round get discouraged and lose valuable prospect time due to bouncing between leagues? We only see the successes here, and rarely hear about the 20-30 failed 3rd rounders every year.
Holland doesn’t have any time for growing pains especially when your 14 points behind Vegas after 8 games.
It’s certainly the organization’s MO. You hope that KH is in a different page but you never know.
On the topic of procurement and draft day, here is a fresh Wheeler original just up at the Athletic today about Beau Akey that is terrific. Lots of interesting info on him personally but also the origins of his elite skating, Keith Gretzky’s prospect development process and even having room to grow physically with a 6’2 daf and 6’7 (!) brother haha.
Al I hope Wheeler may be able to join you on 1440 sometime to talk about Akey even more!
https://theathletic.com/4990780/2023/10/31/beau-akey-edmonton-oilers-top-prospects?source=user-shared-article
Preach Al
The Oilers are organizationally soft.
They have a country club and feelings mentality more than winning.
VGK are run like an assembly line, if you aren’t functioning effective and efficient, you will be put in dumpster and replaced.
Until Oilers decide to put out most skill and upside they won’t beat VGK, or Col
Vegas can afford to treat its players like an assembly line because it is an attractive place to play. Similar to how a good looking person can be an obnoxious jerk and still have no problem getting a date on a Saturday night.
That reminds me…I need a new sports jacket for Sat.
The Oilers have the two best centers in the game. There are no shortage of players who would love to play on their wings e.g. Kane, Hyman, Brown.
The issue is the large drop-off in skill from top 6 to bottom 6, and in net. This is where the turnover needs to happen with more deliberation and intent.
This was (is?) a contending team – the changes that were needed at the end of last season were not addressed. That is where Holland missed.
Holland should have known the players who scored in the bottom 6 last season weren’t going to score in the bottom 6 this season? (through 8 games)
Who are these bottom 6 who scored last season? Serious question.
McLeod, Ryan and Janmark are the returning bottom 6. The rest are new, aren’t they?
Did these 3 score enough last season? Do the new 3 have a history of scoring?
Brown was (and most likely still will be) Yamamoto’s replacement in the top 6.
So the bottom 6 returnees are Foegele, McLeod, Janmark, Ryan and Holloway. All but Holloway scored 10+ goals and 20+ points last season.
The departures are Kostin, Puljujarvi/Bjugstad (you can’t count both) and Shore. Kostin had 11-10-21. Puljujarvi+Bjugstad scored 9-11-20. Shore had 9 points.
Erne (and a promoted Holloway) are the additions. Erne scored 8-10-18 last season – remarkably similar to the departed Kostin and Puljujarvi/Bjugstad.
The main issue this season is that Brown has been snakebit so far in his return from injury (0 points after a 50 point rate in his Ottawa career) and that McLeod, Janmark, Ryan, Holloway and Erne all have 0 or 1 (Ryan) points instead of 2 or 3 (which is what last years rates would have predicted through 8 games).
Fair enough. And I forgot Foegele. He’s easy to forget about. So is McLeod.
What’s the standard for goals and points for 3rd line players?
By league rank (1st line 1-96, 2nd line 97-192, 3rd line 193-288, 4th line 289-384) 3rd line forwards in 2022-23 scored 10-14 goals and 23-34 points.
All of Foegele, McLeod, Janmark and Ryan (plus Kostin) were ‘3rd line’ goal scorers, and the first three were ‘3rd line’ point scorers.
Overall the Oilers had 11 3rd line goal, and 9 3rd line point, scorers (with only Kostin from the bottom 6 departed). As a comparison the vaunted Golden Knights had 11 3rd line goal, and 10 3rd line point, scorers.
I agree. But maybe if the Oilers were a little bit more hard ass in their roster choices and player choices they would be winning more consistently with less lulls. And winning can be as tempting as nice weather.
They can’t change where the city is but they have full control of their own success
There is only one reason good players are willing to come to Edmonton – the chance to win. If this team is not winning, it’s not a destination city for any good player, regardless of how bubble players are treated.
country club? no.
risk adverse, yes.
It was reported that Erne hadn’t been sent down his house and family are here now. If that’s not country club I don’t know what is. They need to win, not bend to needs of replaceable players.
Oilers don’t have enough players to even sit people so you are guaranteed playing time.
So yes country club
We have to agree to disagree about the definition of country club then…
Not every day you get a Delores Umbridge reference on a hockey blog. Well played LT!
Yes, that caused a mild coffee sputter this morning!
Is it too late for Holland and Woody to learn the cruciatus curse?
Accio puck!!
I am all for cutting Erne and Brown TODAY – not tomorrow or next week but TODAY. Ken appears to want to be everyone’s friend – well that is not how Sr. management works. Jackson should ensure that this happens. If Ken won’t do it then sail on vacum cleaner salesman.
I don’t see Holland and Lavoie having a play date with each other in the near future.
Lavoie will be up soon enough if he keeps playing like he has.
They’ll only slot him with 4th line minutes if he can rip up the AHL. Holland will trade him for that elusive 4C are like a Kostin-Sammy trade. I don’t know what Pederson injury was but they have no one else they can call-up unless they sign Gagner and maybe Malone. Holland is going to merrily leave this organization having completely gutted the prospect pool.
— Love these history lessons.
— not the same but Slats was famous for putting guys up with Gretz or Mess for a few games to pad their stats then trade them, and or have team allocate generous 2nd assists to guys.
— And on that maybe McDavid and Drai just aren’t as good as Mess and Gretz: they played together in the beginning but team (and them) embraced two lines with both of them Cs
— It really is a die in the hill thing IMO: this team can’t win unless they are mostly centring two different lines. The other way hasn’t worked yet. Not going to suddenly now either.
Messier had the ability to carry a team let alone a line. He and Gretzky in their prime together was a fearsome combination.
Sather surrounded them with some fine Hockey players Kurri, Coffey, Anderson, Fuhr, Moog, Lowe, Huddy, Tikkanen, MacTavish, Linesman, Simpson, Krushelnyski, even guys like Stan Weir 33 goals, Lumley scored in 12 straight fricking games (magical) I was there to witness Pat Hughes score 5 goals he could of had 7 or 8. Sather knew when to bring them in and ship them out. He always had a 3C that could do everything as well as a bottom 6.