It’s time to have the talk. The Edmonton Oilers aren’t good enough to beat the top end of the NHL. In fairness, the injuries of Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan McLeod were a cruel blow. It’s also true this roster is not a strong one past the top two lines, some good defensemen and (I believe) Stuart Skinner. There isn’t enough, the cap issues are acidic to roster building and Connor Brown was a solid bet that hasn’t worked out. The Oilers are a team badly in need of help. There is none coming.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Can Connor McDavid come from behind to win another Art Ross Trophy?
- Lowetide: Will Edmonton Oilers redeem themselves after baffling October?
- Lowetide: Can the Edmonton Oilers make room for Raphael Lavoie?
- DNB: Oilers rewarded for their season’s most complete game in Heritage Classic win
- Lowetide: Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is spiking in an important area
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ injuries already a major story in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers count on any short-term help from AHL Bakersfield?
- Lowetide: Can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
INJURIES
No one wants excuses, but reasons are true and help explain things. Connor McDavid isn’t 100 percent and his performance so far this season proves it. I encourage you to read the article I wrote about his Art Ross chances at The Athletic this morning.
In normal times, McDavid scores at least a goal last night and Edmonton walks away with a point or two. I mentioned on the Lowdown yesterday that Dallas Stars on a btb and playing three in four is all well and good, but that’s a team with quality and depth.
Edmonton is vulnerable right now, they don’t have the ultimate hammer (McDavid) going at 100 percent. So, what you’re left with is a team that needs to button down.
This is not a button-down team, they just aren’t built that way.
I’m frustrated with Ken Holland, I have to say. He’s boxed himself in here. I’m not one to rip the GM, I gave him good grades often in the past. For me, he’s had an F start to the season. He’s unable to help the roster and he’s the general manager. I know it isn’t his fault, but it is his probem that McDavid, Ekholm and McLeod are hurt (and Brown looked injured last night, too).
Philip Broberg made a mistake last night, cost the team. The correct play is to dress him for the next game and play him again. Holland and Jay Woodcroft appear focused on this season only, so development in-season for youth isn’t in the cards. That’s the one thing this team can do in an effort to get better. They’re not going to do it.
I’m happy for Sam Gagner. A great story.
I think the Oilers will make the postseason and go on a run. I think McDavid wins the Art Ross. I don’t think this team can catch up and go on a Stanley run. Leon Draisaitl is eligible to sign next summer. May you live in interesting times.
At Noon, Sports 1440. We’ll hear Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports, Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff, Connor Halley from Fantasy Frenzy. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
This article hits even harder after that Nashville loss. They are doomed. Goaltending, the last line is non existent.
The fm felt that doing nothing to a team that didn’t even get to WCF was the right path.
LA made a bad bet on a 5 mill goalie and they got rid of that salary in the same year.
This is complacency and lazy management.
Summarizing!
A few crooked numbers this night.
Stonehouse tallied 1+1 with a game-high 5 SOG, extending his point streak to seven.
Mazura also had 1+1 to give him seven points in seven games. He had 12 points all of last year.
Copponi and Lachance each had a goal, while Akey chipped in an assist.
Day stopped 21 of 24 in a shootout loss.
The Vermonters did not receive soup, though Määttä did go 11-for-18 (61.1%) on the dot.
Akey’s assist was a beautiful diagonal pass through the ozone to the open man. Also had a double minor (receiving the extra penalty) after the empty netter was scored against his crew.
Imagine if coaches and management have identified some glaring weaknesses in the young players game and are having them work on them to give them a better chance of sticking in the Bigs.
The “Oiler Way”:
1: Identify a promising youth player who is doing well in the minors/junior”
2: Push hard to get them on the big team, preferably on the first line with McDavid.
3: Throw the player to the wolves
4: When said player inevitably sinks blame the coach and management
5: Harass said player out of town
Seen this happen way too many times.
A youngster breaking into the league has to have something they excel at, be it scoring (finishing), playmaking, puck battling, etc and they have to be able to demonstrate it at the major league level, at major league speed.
Seems to me that rookies are largely an empty slate allowing us to project whatever we want onto them which only serves to setup failure.
There is nothing wrong with a rookie playing on the 3rd and 4th line and getting a chance to demonstrate their attributes with less pressure and less quality of competition. Make them earn the 1st/2nd line spots.
Saying managment sucks because their target player isn’t being given a chance because they are not playing with Draisatl and McDavid seems funny to me because no one has managed to stick with them, much less a rookie.
The pendulum switches from God to Goat very quickly here.
who have you seen rushed to the NHL and play on McDavid’s wing?
puljujarvi?
who else?
Ty Rattie?
Rattie, signed as a UFA was 25 years old when he was called up from Bakersfield and was productive in a few games at the end of the season. He was re-signed and lead the NHL in pre-season scoring with very little time with 97.
He was then given time on the 1st line to start the season and was not productive.
He certainly was not rushed. Info his opportunities at the time is that he had never really trained in a focused way in the off-season as a young pro, but he did so going into that season. However the result revealed that he was not, in fact, an NHL player.
I will give you the pendulum comment, but Management sucks because of roster construction and the questionable signings and salaries handed out that impact the roster and ability to have a complete and competitive roster.
Crazy numbers. GA/60 at 5v5.
Part of this number reflects the type of comp a player plays against. For example, you’d expect McLeod to have a lower number than Draisaitl or McDavid.
It should be under three. Last season, Hyman and Draisaitl were at 3.2 and 3.3 respectively, worst on the team.
This year.
Hyman 5.4
Nuge 4.8
Kane 4.5
Bouch 4.2
Nurse 3.4
Hyman, Nuge, and Kane’s ga/60 are in the Nighmare on Elm Street zone.
What’s going on here?
Oilers are 30th in 5v5 GA60, and SV%.
This is what is meant when people say the Oilers SH% + SV% will regress. The team is not much different than last season and the law of averages is such that as GP increases, SV% should increase, and GA60 decrease.
When judging high event players (especially in a small sample such as this) it’s the GF% that ultimately matters. On your list only Kane, Bouchard and Nurse are a negative goal share.
Also, if you look at Hyman’s most common teammates, they are Nurse, Ceci and Bouchard. Bouchard and Broberg are the culprits. Hyman’s GA60 is 7.16 with Bouchard (41 minutes TOI, 50 % Goal Share) and 11.09 GA60 with Broberg (16:13 TOI, 50% Goal Share).
This is one reason I would ideally prefer Bouchard to play fewer minutes 5v5. He will always be a high-event player. I do believe that he will post a positive goal share by the end of the season. But his style of play, of out-scoring mistakes, is volatile.
They’ve been out the most with Bouchard during his early struggles?
Devil in the details:
Game 1: none
Game 2: none
Game 3: none
Game 4: none
Game 5: none
Game 6: 1
Game 7: none
Game 8: 2
Game 9: 2
1.666 GPG % if hockey were all third periods.
context?
3rd period goals so far this season.
With 33 opportunities, this years’ power play (21%) would have produced 5 more goals so far were it humming at last years’ 32%. That probably swings at least one game, maybe two.
They’re really missing that dynamite power play. But then its just symptomatic of 97 and 25 not clicking right now all over the ice. Were the power play going at 32% right now those two would be getting results elsewhere.
Whether you believe some, any, help is coming or not — enough help is up for debate — in the end it depends on whether you have faith in McDvid and Leon to turn it back on, or not.
to “hope” for the Power Play to repeat last year, when it set an all time Record???- that is a fools errand.
The PP will get better, but it won’t hit 32% or whatever they rocked last year 🙂
In the four seasons since 2019-20 they’re averaging 28.87% with no year lower than 26%. The current PP is 21.2%, the exact same % as their end of year 2018-2019. I think it is reasonable to assume regression to the last 4 years, over the course of the season. That 18-19 coincidence is, well hopefully simply that!
To be honest however I thought they would be as good as last year, given Bouchard and that playoff performance.
Good news to see Lavoie called up to the big team.
It sucks that they held spots for useless players such as Erne, Pederson, et al, all through training camp, and that potentially 3M in cap space will be pissed away, but here we are.
Only one thing to do now!
Tear it up Raphael!
“Look, if you had one shot or one opportunity
To seize everything you ever wanted in one moment
Would you capture it or just let it slip?“
Lavoie = French for “the way”. Savoie = French for “his way”.
Love me some Eminem
There’s been some discussion on one hand about the EDM’s glowing underlying numbers and, on the other, how that’s largely the result of score effects so I looked into it a bit.
In the sample of only 255mins when the score is within 1, EDM is #1 in xGF/60 and #8 in xGA/60 for a combined total of #1 in xGF% (60.4%). Similar is true when you further limit the sample to only when the team is tied. I won’t make any comprehensive claims on this basis, but I don’t think it’s fair to suggest it’s largely score effects.
I’d be curious about a breakdown period-by-period.
The underlying numbers are not all glowing. They are 30th in SV% and GA60, which are more salient correlates to PTS% than xGF%. Also HDGA60 and HDSV% are currently league worst.
The problem is not the overall volume of shots and expected goals against, but rather the relative quality of shots and expected goals against, which register as low SV%. In other words, their shots suppression and general defence is OK, until there are catastrophic mistakes that result in goals. It should get better. Given the law of averages SV% should increase. But I personally don’t think that they will increase to cup winning levels.
Without a doubt the OIlers xGF% will also experience some negative regression especially their xGF/60 as 3.42 is very high compared to the 2.95 posted last season.
Regarding score effects, they have spent 24:20 per game trailing (all sits), which is 26th in the league, compare to Boston who spend 6:37 trailing per game (1 st). Trailing EDM is 7th in SF60 at 35.61, this drops to 29.22 (13th) when leading. xGF60 drops from 3.72 (9th) when trailing to 3.19 (11th) when leading. So when trailing, xGF60 has increased for this team – these are score effects.
But as you are pointing out, the Oilers have a lot of players that generate a huge amount of shots and expected goals. Hyman, McDavid, Foegle, Kane, Bouchard and Brown usually do very well with xGF60. Last season EDM was 4th overall for all situations xGF% at 54.38, this season 5th at 55.36.
They measure well by expected goals – and especially have elite forwards who generate a large number of individual expected goals. What is interesting is that right now these goals are not going in for some of these players. In the case of Brown and McDavid, this could very well be due to injury. McDavid’s ixGF60 has nose-dived to 0.85 from 1.44 last season. Fans should be concerned about this.
They need to measure better by SV% and especially HDSV%, this is why they lose. They can do this by making fewer 5 alarm mistakes. Waiving Broberg, a healthier Ekholm and Bouchard finding some sense should help this. Giving Desharnais more minutes will also increase SV% and decrease HDGA60 (although may negatively impact xGF60 & GF60).
I think Oilers on ice results correlate with my PTSD….
Mazura and Lachance each have a first-period goal, while Akey has a helper.
This will make tomorrow night’s Condors’ game a bit less intriguing.
The have Griffith, Pederson, Tulio, Savoie, Caggiula out and have lost Lavoie and Gagner to recall
Injury bug hitting us hard this year
Broberg and Holloway.
I thought the Oilers were going to draft Guhle instead of Holloway until Stauffer leaked the Holloway info. He was also ranked two spots ahead of Holloway on McKenzie’s list.
While Holloway is doing cardio during Oilers games and Broberg’s who was drafted the year prior is struggling with bottom pairing minutes, Guhle’s playing a hair under 20 minutes per game, second pairing for the Canadiens… positive rels.
“Doing cardio”
Very strong.💪
Wish they picked Mercer instead of Holloway, although it looks like Mercer is struggling to start this year as well. But he scored nearly 30 last season.
The genuises in Montreal went on to draft Logan Mailloux and Juraj Slafkovsky in subsequent drafts. And skipped on Mitchkov who only said he wouldn’t go to Arizona.
My comment wasn’t intended to laud the drafting prowess of the Canadiens.
Drafting in the first round is fairly simple. You follow McKenzie’s list. Maybe you skip over one player if there are major red flags. That’s it.
Everyone thinks they’re Warren Buffet, but very few, until maybe the past few years, can consistently beat the S&P 500.
If you’re so inclined, you can search back here for my comments dating back as far as they go. I’ve never once criticized a selection that followed McKenzie’s in the first round that didn’t pan out including JP.
However, if you often veer from McKenzie’s list, you’re almost certainly headed for pain. Holland went absolute walk about at 8 for Broberg skipping over a number of better players, then skipped over Mercer and Guhle for Holloway.
Here we are.
Mckenzie’s list had Broberg at 15 and Seider at 16. He was the 3rd ranked defenceman and 2nd off the board. If everyone had followed to the list, we would’ve ended up with Podkolzin. Pronman had Bro at 9, Button (I know) at 7, Wheeler 11.
I see the point, and you could argue Pods had major red flags as you said (offence). Soderstrom and Heinola were ranked ahead of him by CSS (Euros).
Point is, I don’t think the pick is ‘absolute walkabout’ as you say.
Lavoie was 19 by Bob’s list, go young man go.
So Lavoie has been recalled – Ken Holland did his job.
Now, will Jay Woodcroft do his job and provide the forward with some real minutes and some real opportunity with some real NHL players?
I knew Gagner would score and gather 2 points I actually won a nice substantial amought with the odds I was given. Thanks Sammy. Anyhow the team is stale Woody is all X and O’s the players are Woodized except the call-ups. If we don’t get a new Coach with some mustard we’re not going to make the playoffs. I hope Lavoie gives Holland and Woody a big Fuk u and lights it up in the top 6-9. I still can’t believe Sutter, Pederson and Erne took away valuable opportunity for ice time for Lavoie in the preseason.
Just a note:
Olivier Rodrigue has only had the opportunity to play 2 games, however, in both those games, he’s made 30 plus saves and let in only one goal.
No, I’m not saying he gets called up without an NHL injury but just noting.
Hey look at that. Maybe Woody was coy about the callup because it’s a very special moment to get called up to your first NHL game.
Congrats Mr.Lavoie. Well done Woody caring about the player and not the keyboards.
Hopefully fans will remember hes not here to save us, he’s here to take the next step joining an NHL team. Note to Woody. That also does not mean 5 minutes a game thank you very much.
Unless Lavoie’s g/f posting IG pictures about packing and heading to Edmonton was a coincidence, I don’t think that was the reason for keeping it quiet in the avail.
Interesting due diligence…
The other day, I was contemplating how many errors a GM can make, and still win the cup.
You can roughly break them down to errors of trade, drafting, and of cap management.
Chiarelli made three famously critical level errors.
Obviously Chiarelli’s list of blunders is longer than just this. We have the Strome trade etc.
Holland had less room for error because the lingering effects of Chiarelli on the roster persist.
Holland’s errors.
Others.
Back on topic, for the Chiarelli Oilers the loss of the Reinhart picks combined with the Lucic contract was a fatal blow. For Holland, missing on Broberg and Holloway along with the Campbell contract could yield the same fate.
If Chiarelli’s Oilers had no Lucic, and Brandon Carlo and Erickson Ek or Holland’s Oilers had no Campbell contract, and Georgiev, Zegras, and Mercer…
Yep this team has had incompetent management for a long time. Completely agree with points 1-3 regarding the criticism of Holland.
That being said – the current older top 6 wingers are not the problem. Evander Kane has been the Oiler’s best player for the past 3-4 games, and RNH and Hyman are coming off great years and are still good players.
It’s the youth that’s failed us – from Jesse, to Yamo, and now McLeod, Holloway, Broberg and Bouchard. None of them took that step from passenger at the NHL level to driver of wins.
That’s on the coaching staff.
Good point. Wow, when you list them out like that it is truly an indictment of Oiler scouting, management and coaching that not even one of Jesse, Yamomoto, Broberg, Holloway and Bouchard (every of them a first round pick) has developed or appears to be developing into an impact player.
Jesse and Yamo hurt. Benson pick hurt. Broberg is starting to break out in a rash, but it can be cured, still looks to fall short of expectations. Given the need for replacement youth this hurts too.
But Bouchard is excellent, just not well rounded. A stronger defense could absorb him.
McLeod has been, and still will be a decent third line center, thats a win. Im still high on Holloway, he has Connor speed but his brain and hands cannot match. (Similar to Foegele this way) (But hey, if they could match, he might be connor and not available to draft anyway)
Holloway is on a learning curve and hes still coming, he will do well. The losing lenz right now is unfairly focused on the rookies.
We don’t get to have all the goodies, we got Connor and Leon. We have to make do. Finding Vince was a big deal. Trading for Kostin was brilliant but they couldn’t hold him.
Lavoie might surprise, Borgault looks solid and sneaky if not spectacular.
Actually when Kostin went on waivers they should of made an offer that included Detroit retaining 40%
While that’s true for now, it’s also important to acknowledge the risk in Holland’s strategy.
Holland’s strategy is to acquire players, generally vets through free agency, when you know who they are like Hyman. Hyman’s been absolutely money, but older players carry risk. They get injured more often and they eventually fall off a cliff. When they do, you have a contract like a James Neal contract that will bite you hard.
Now, Holland has only pursued this method of player procurement (Hyman, Kane, Ekholm) or retention (Nuge) without staggering with younger players as well. When one of Nuge, Hyman, or Kane fall off a cliff, you have a big problem both in terms of cap, but also in terms of needing to acquire another top six forward. If two fall off the cliff, you’re smoked because you can’t simultaneously acquire two top six forwards while divesting yourself of $10 million in bad cap.
Teams around the league have very good forwards or defensemen that don’t fit their window or cap, that they trade all of the time (Dach, Lehkonen,Toews,) or have soured on due to disappointment (Bennet,Durzi and Reinhart). Holland doesn’t seem to pay much to these types of opportunities.
This is why Holland struggles in hockey trades. You have to understand what other teams need and their pressure points, to do well in trades.
Time to package all of the futures for Saros and Campbell dump
Having a goaler actually bail out the D may be what the doctor ordered
Also bring in Quenneville to coach this team
Please
A trade involving Saros for Campbell would be absolutely amazing. How much that would cost, I can’t even imagine.
It would likely start with two first round picks and go from there.
I doubt Nashville would have much interest in later picks since they have 18 over the next 2 drafts.
And that’s just for Saros nevermind eating Campbell’s $5 million.
They would want Leon especially if everybody’s pal Holland is making the trade.
I think I endorse this hail mary….
I am not at all surprised by the Oiler’s record. I was pretty sure they would be 2-6-1 at this point. I was not impressed with the coaching dating back to the Vegas series and I am still not, though I appreciate that others were trying to be more hopeful, whereas I tend towards a more pessimistic view.
The PP is a mess, and PK doesn’t work, and their play at 5v5 is very inconsistent.
The top paid players (McDavid, Draisaitl and Nurse) need a kick in the pants – their defensive lapse are the stuff of losers only care about one end of the rink.
The kids (McLeod, Holloway, Broberg) are getting outplayed by the likes of Gagner and Desharnais, and are not making progress. Bouchard as well has not shown any improvement in his own zone.
The current coach does not hold them accountable and is not getting the most of this roster. He’s had his chance, and it’s been an abject failure.
Stop dithering and get a new coach in already – every other team in the league would have pulled the plug on Woody by now.
In no world did you expect them to be 2-6-1.
Cmon
Sorry I should clarify, that was not written well – when they were 1-4-1 a week ago, I wanted the coach fired. I thought they would lose to NYR and Dallas and win against Calgary, and be 2-6-1 by this point.
Lol no – I certainly did not start the season thinking they would go 2-6-1. No one anywhere did.
But after the first 6 games I did not like what I saw. The PK was lucky to by at 87% (it’s worse now), and the PP was not clicking well. And of course, the boneheaded mistakes being made at 5v5. Aside from the Calgary game (and lets face, the Flames are more of a doormat than the Oilers are) its been more of the same.
I don’t disagree but certainly if every other team in the league had a coach with the same record over the past two seasons the consensus would be to hold out longer than you’re suggesting.
Woody says he knows who they are calling up but isn’t saying. These little games and coyness seem even pettier when the fire keeps on burning hotter and hotter, no?
Agree, the game is tomorrow and not like there are game changing world beaters down there that the other team will plan around.
Maybe he wants to tell the player personally before blabbing to the media.
I agree, it comes across as pretentious when you pull this stuff in literally game 10 of an 82 game season and your team is sitting at the bottom of the standings. There are no worldbeaters arriving to save the day, everyone knows this.
Woody needs to stop these pathetic little mind games, frankly it doesn’t help. Edit: Maybe Pretendergast has a point, but Woody seems to do a lot of these coy little things in his pressers. Hits different when you’re in the WCF vs when you’re in game 10 of a losing season.
If you’re the smartest person in the room, you shouldn’t want people to know
Sports needs smart but it’s an emotional thing driven by highly motivated people that don’t dwell in intellectualism. They thrive on passion, discipline and winning. Most of the best coaches aren’t bookish
Woody likes to play checkers
Two things I Ike to see happen
1 coach change…wood is not the right coach for this team, what he has done in the past means nothing now. 2 Hate to say it and dont get me wrong cause he’s one of my favorite player…but we need to trade drai to balance the team.
If the team can’t/won’t figure out how to be successful with Connor and Leon driving separate lines, then I agree. Trade one or the other. The team has way too many defects to have the luxury of playing both on the same line to generate offense. And two prima donnas that aren’t serious about defensive responsibility on the same line doesn’t work.
Pay Gallant whatever it takes.
That would be a knee jerk reaction on both counts.
Can someone explain to me why Bouchard, on Hintz’s 2nd goal, stood straight up, straight legged, stopped skating and let Hintz go to the net for the tap in? Like he didn’t even acknowledge him.
I’ve watched it 9 times. I can’t believe it. Seriously there is something wrong with this kid.
Smart like moose.
This is where a better coach would send him a message with a good benching.
The problem is there is no one else to put in the line up now. Kenny is so F#$%^ed
Who cares, put Des for an extra few shifts. Throw Nurse on the pp. lots of things a good coach can do to figure that out.
My charitable guess is he perceived Hintz to be “Ekholm’s guy”, Pavelski to be McDavid’s guy, and he wanted to stay in front of Robertson in case the pass came to the trailer.
Ekholm took the pass (not quite), McDavid didn’t catch Pavelski, and Robertson looked open anyway.
Poor breakdown, but I also wonder if McDavid could have skated a little harder on the back check through the neutral zone and tied up Pavelski better.
We can come up with all kinds of reasons for who should have done what but bottom line is that all of these guys have consistently made the same type of mistakes over and over and the coach should be addressing that for the long term good of the team rather than just dealing with that particular game.
A guy like Kucherov gets benched. Mackinnon got benched. Our guys are always different.
Sure… but to be clear, the question was “Can someone explain to me why Bouchard, on Hintz’s 2nd goal, stood straight up, straight legged, stopped skating and let Hintz go to the net for the tap in?”
Pretty sure he’s not being coached to just stand there because others might have coverage responsibilities.
This is how I saw the play too. Ekholm played Pavelski leaving Bouchard to defend both Richardson and Hintz. McDavid was already on Pavelski’s tail so there was no real need for Ekholm to do what he did. This doesn’t excuse Bouchard doing absolutely nothing, but this rush would have been far less problematic if Ekholm makes a better decision.
The rush would have been far less problematic if McDavid didn’t decide to stop skating and get beat by the second oldest player in the NHL.
McDavid had the full ability to prevent that goal but chose not to.
The thing is we talk about the mistakes Oilers D make because every time they do it’s in the back of the net. Pay close attention to other team’s D and you will see similar mistakes, but they don’t end up in the back of the net as frequently.
I disagree. Yes other D make similar mistakes, but not repeated uncontested HDSC like the oilers do. Those D will hook, interfere, tackle while the Oilers give the free pass even after the initial mistake.
I don’t disagree about the assertion that our HDSC may sometimes be more 5 alarm than 3 alarm compared to other teams. However, hockey is a game of mistakes and even the best teams make mistakes. Our goalies collectively have the worst HDSC save percentage in the league, and it’s by a fair margin compared to the mean. That’s based on volume, not quality, but it still paints the picture of them not getting the job done.
He plays like a junior or less in this regard. He is a puckwatcher, just waiting till he can get the puck back and then he will do good things.
Slight exaggeration here – but he is at nearly at 1 play per game like this…
And I am 100% a Bouchard fan. But his play in his own end and around his own net are sometimes – as you describe – mystifying.
It’s maddening. It’s pat of his contract to defend.
I’ve seen this before – in rec hockey. D man doesn’t really want to engage the guy getting the scoring chance for fear of getting bumped or getting a puck in the teeth on a Monday night. Kind of backs off to the side of the net out of the way and casually waves a stick at the puck. Dman has to work at 6am next day you know. Hopefully my G makes the save, but if he doesn’t oh well, I’ll fish it out of the net for him.
Then Bouchard gets 24 min and 8 min of PP time. No accountability for some. That’s where you lose the rest of the team.
Never watched him in Junior but I’m assuming he never needed to defend physically.
This team doesn’t have what is required to cover for that level of neglect on the D side.
Well, last night, both Bouchard and McDavid made a lazy defence on one goal against (McDavid just as culpable as Bouchard) but one of them was otherwise one of the best players on the ice and dynamic throughout – and it wasn’t Connor McDavid.
Prediction: Greg Malone, c’mon down.
Brad’s uncle?
Post’s brother…
Oops…
-)
We need physicality Brad can bring it at least there’s no one else. Holland sold all the assets under everyone’s nose while Connor and Leon were mesmerizing the hungry fan base.
Did Malone learn how to play goal?
The Broberg pick was I believe Holland
s response to the Yzerman selection,just before ours, of Moritz Seider. Holland being very much aware of Detroits interest in landing a smooth skating Euro D man, most likely sat in on scouting reports on him, and wanted one of these types of his own.Broberg was the wrong choice.
His amatuer training was almost solely as a forward….doesn’t he reflect that today ?? …yes he skates like a dream….however, he still cannot pass a hard flat puck, his shot is at best feeble, and if he has actually hit anyone it was accidental.
Bakersfield has several D men who can replace Broberg. Give him lots of minutes down there, boost his confidence, then move him.
Brown should not see any ice in his 10th game…..use the injury or anything semi legal,but dont play him.
Now, bring up Lavoie.
Remember there was talk the Oilers scouts were upset with Ken Holland upon arrival? It was because he jumped their draft board, using Detroit’s instead.
Here’s a question – do you feel our current goaltending tandem is better or worse than the former tandem of Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen? Because that former duo received a lot of criticism, but I think I would take both of them over our current duo.
And I think our goaltending coach should be changed out immediately. Looking strictly at goaltending performance over the last several years, there is no evidence he is helping.
I think Smith’s puck handling took a lot of pressure off the d zone (even though it led to the odd goal against). Plus he was fiery which I think helped motivate the boys. Koskinen/Campbell are pretty much a wash.
Not sure it’s the goal tending though. More the system/high-danger chances against.
Yeah, I don’t mean to imply that goaltending is the sole issue, I think a bigger one is a lack of committed defensive play/structure, along with poor team construction. But let’s be real, good goaltending can cover a lot of deficiencies!
Smith’s puck handling helped the Oil a lot in their own end, but did result in the occasional catastrophic mistake. It increased their over-all SCF% and GF%. In 2019-20 Smith had a slightly lower SV%. It was definitely an over-all positive. People remember the big mistakes but not the positive impact on GF%,which was 4.42% higher than Koskinen’s over the same period.
https://www.coppernblue.com/2020/7/25/21335299/why-smith-is-better-than-koskinen
As Scratchybeard said I think Smith’s biggest effect was his personality. He has enough fire to ignite an entire team, and he did. The biggest fear about his crease wasn’t Nurse, it was him. Kane fills that swagger/fire role now it seems
As for the puck handling, it had it’s ups, but was a big down in the playoff series against the Avs, because being a series they game could plan it. The team had become so used to and reliant on Smith’s passing, Bednar just cut the pass off that was obviously coming to the mid boards, and they couldn’t counter
For me a team being able to break out normally and adapt to the forecheck is better in the long run
It’s not an either/or proposition. Having a puck handler like Smith doesn’t mean you have to use it. But the numbers don’t lie: over-all it was a positive. If the Oilers didn’t adapt their breakout vs the Avs that’s on the coaches.
I remember an interview with Brian Burke where he said their analysts had calculated the number of hits saved on defenders due to Smith’s puck handling. Their conclusions were that it had reduced injury.
I liked Smith’s fire, a lot. But to say that was THE positive about the player to the team feels like conjecture.
Yet here we are discussing single moments in games being the reason the team overall stinks. We’ve quite literally never learned.
Well yes. The Oilers have generally had great difficulty in assessing, drafting and developing defenders. The catastrophic mistake seems as “Oilers” as the drop pass after the zone entry.
Costco.
55 gp .906
38 gp .917
26 gp .899
45 gp .903
164 gp .907 SV%
Campbell
36 gp .888
4 gp .878
40 gp .877 SV%
I don’t think “a wash” means what you think it means.
We may wish Campbell was Costco, but that’s different than them being the equivalent. Campbell is worse by a huge margin.
I would take those two over the current tandem, tho right now I think Koski and Stew are a wash performance wise. Smith was nuts / unpredictable but showed well enough often enough to help the cause.
I don’t think either is great but Stu has upside
I also don’t think any goalie could make that much difference behind a team giving up what our guys have been, with little scoring support
I agree that the lack of scoring depth and defense are bigger issues; the goaltending tandem comparison is just something I was thinking about.
Yup, if the team in front of them was equal, there would only be marginal difference between opposition and Oilers goaltending.
They are definitely comparable but I go with the current tandem. The continual soft goals in the first 5 minutes of the game from Koski was such a killjoy. Smith was maybe the best of the lot but he was another emotional rollercoster.
Koskinen was a competent backup, who struggled when overplayed because of injuries to Smith. Smith was horrible year 1, but to his credit, rebuilt his game over a summer of hard work focussing on his weaknesses. He was then back to being a solid starter level in the 2nd season.
Skinner is fine, an emerging goaltender forced into the limelight by Campbell’s struggles last year. I think he is going to be a solid NHL starter with a long career. Some fundamentally sound defensive team will grab him once he is run out of Edmonton by the haters. He is NOT Carey Price. But no one really is.
I am giving Campbell a clean slate this year, but the Oilers team defense and defensemen have been so bad, it is hard to tell so far where exactly he is.
This is exactly it. Last night was yet another example of the Oilers team defense letting the goalie down (although I would have liked for Skinner to stop Duchene’s shot off Ceci’s bad pinch.
While no team is perfect, the team mistakes occur every single game and yet many here blame the goalies for not bailing the team out. The problem is these are not the 1980’s when you can outscore you mistakes. Teams have scouted the Oilers and Woody is making it too damn easy for them by playing 97/29 together against the other teams best d-pairings.
Smith and Koskinen combined for a GSAx of about -2 over the three seasons Smith was here. Smith’s PK SV% was elite. That said, the first season of Smith was rough.
Skinner and Campbell are sitting at about -20 GSAx combining this and last season. So yes, worse.
I don’t know that Schwartz needs to go. But they should try something. If we think Campbell is still in the sh*tter, hire Dusty Imoo ASAP in addition.
Worse by a long shot! Our D is actually better with Ekholm at this point and both of our goalie’s can’t put up a similar save percentage to Koski, nevermind Smith.
Broberg down.
Not surprising, but I really wish they could dip into LTIR. I’m guessing Broberg is called up for Vancouver as an emergency recall.
He’s barely under the threshold of $875K so he would be available for emergency recall.
Broberg is trending to be a massive draft disappointment. However, the team needs to bear a significant amount of blame for his stalled development as well! They have strung him along and as others have said, playing him paltry minutes and then benching him after every mistake is getting him nowhere.
Who does he have to learn from on the finer points of Defening on this team? Maybe Nurse, but he isn’t exactly cerebral. I guess Ekholm, but the bloom fell off that rose last spring.
Then he watches Bouchard have no give a F in defending and he gets gifted 24 min.
He’s got no protection. This team has 5 3rd pairing D right now.
May as well get him out of this D mess. Manson doesn’t seem to be improving anything D related. Maybe Chalk can help him
I see no reason to be down on Ekholm based on anything we saw last season. Just one guy.
What’s this about Ekholm last spring?
Agreed on Manson.
Strudwick has it right on this one. Keep him there. Maybe all season.
Better yet, trade him. Try and convice another GM that he still has value. I don’t see it in this player.
If they’re not going to give Lavoie a chance, trade him as well.
There are options available to the team that neither the GM nor coach are pursuing. Much like the players, they’re too slow to react.
is Leon ok?
He had a few chances from his office and missed the net
23 attempted Shots miss the net and a few rung around the boards and out of the zone. Stars miss the net twice only from attempted shots. Stars actually had more Grade A scoring chances than us. The stats were from David and Bruce Podcast post-game. We need to shoot and hit the net to create chaos. Get some greasy rebounds. Leon and Connor only like to score pretty goals. Samwise scored 2 going to the net and not-so-pretty goals.
They also need to work more screens deflections and tips. And do it consistently. When the puck goes to the point often there isn’t a forward moving in to do any of that effectively at least
A lot of teams are very purposeful about it. It’s really hard to defend when it’s done well, and if the goalie is hot it makes his life much harder
NST Has HD chances at 12-8 Oil. Each goalie let in 1.
NST and CoH measure different things.
All NST cares about is where the shot came from – it doesn’t take in to account how hard the shot was, who took the shot, the pre-shot context (i.e. side to side movement, etc.).
I would put much more stock in to Bruce and Dave’s count for any particular Oiler game but, of course, that info is only available for Oilers’ games, not all games.
LT, what is the significance of the broken tree branch laying on the pavement. You have used it a few times and knowing you, it probably has meaning if you care to share?
Brown was coming along. But regardless of injury significance I think the smart and safe bet is waive him today. This will allow a free look at someone else. If Brown is skating and improving that’s good too, and he can do that in AHL. Based on his start, the cap hangover next year, and all the uncertainty, no team is going to claim him.
Agreed. As Bruce said yesterday. Dare someone to claim him. Especially with his production and 1 game before getting hit with a bonus for next year. I think you can stash him and bring him up when he’s healthy while test driving someone else.
What will Kenny do???????
Dallas got drilled in the fancies two nights in a row by Calgary and Edmonton. And the good old-fashioned eye test also showed those same two teams dominate Dallas. Dallas only walked away with 4 points thanks to both of their goalies standing on their heads and the Alberta goalies playing average at best. Things will even out and get better, but we need a goalie.
We have needed a goalie for a while now. Not sure there is any obvious solution out there.
Here are the two biggest, glaring clues, and one theory.
If you had only this information to go on, nothing else, what could you potentially conclude in regard to systems, coaching, rosters, play, etc… and thus where would you start to look in regard to where you are going to spend time, effort, dollars, trades etc?
As I check back into the blog I was hoping for discussion. bah. I will have to chat with myself, like Im off my medication…
#1 – conclusion – obviously the shots on net are perimeter, poor quality, unobstructed with nobody around for rebounds.
(This is much better conclusion that the opposition goalies, all of them, are so spectacular, they are willing away the shots of numerous top scorers.)
#2 – conclusion – the team is giving up high quality chances, giving up the slot, allowing tips and rebounds
#3 – conclusion – It could be Oilers goalies are poor, but by a 2:1 margin? Unlikely. Much more likely the actual difference between goalies is marginal, the real difference being the players in front of the netminder.
To me, there lies the problem and solution. Less perimeter play, more drive to net, more penetration, (always a good thing) more threat option also opens the door for pretty plays again.
Take away high danger chances. Stop mistakes, odd man rushes, cover the slot.
So they know all this already but cant seem to do it. Systems has minor affect here, coach has to hold accountability. Roster needs to swap out some players who will boost these weaknesses. Trade for a d man. Start using your farm team. Gagner was a good call up. His play will fade but hes good character in the room, and not in the least intimidated to speak out.
It’s getting awkward for the Tyler Benson ( Broberg) fan club now.
Some are trying to downplay Broberg’s mistake.
Don’t.
It’s so wildly egregious you just have to have the player own it. He Looked incredibly awkward on the play even before he muffed the dump in.
Does anyone feel, right now, the Vinny vs Bro competition is even close?
He will be a fine player….but he *may* be a 3rd pairing D that can occasionally see spot duty on a 2nd pair .
Agree. Broberg has lost the job. Why? A part is environment. You cannot feel minimized, restricted, underconfident and then still develop. There needs to be a reset. He is on the Puljujarvi train right now.
Some players just don’t develop enough to justify their draft status, no matter how much you coddle them. That was Jesse, and its starting to look like Broberg as well.
Ugh, as a long standing member of the Broberg fan club, I can’t argue with most of this.
I was literally typing in real time how great of a defensive play and zone exit he had just make – used his brain and his skates and, then, boom – the flub.
Can’t excuse him for it – it happened – he has to own it.
I’m not sure he needed to be benched for pretty much the rest of the game after that or that he needs to go to the AHL but I get that move and I guess I’m fine with it as:
1) well, they HAVE to have an 11th healthy forward so d-man has to go down if there is no LTIR; and
2) this seven d-men just isn’t working – I’ve expressed my hatred of 11/7 due to how it effs with the deployment, in particular Broberg, and its come to a head – he can’t be part of that any longer.
When you look at the overall roster I do believe their is enough talent here. There is a really good third line available. Holloway / MacLeod / Foegele There is no reason these three cannot win thier goal share. The weakness up front is that a 4th line has no identity, basically non existent. And running Leon/Connor double shifted for over 25 minutes a game should not be a strategy right now.
I want to think Woody puts Leon/Connor together when one or the other is hurt and I think there is truth to this, yet he then rolls them out 25 minutes. That is not logical.
How can the roster improve? They need character. Bring some character, some intangible. Kostin had it. A few others presently on the team. A team cannot win without skill, but I believe that skill needs supported and balanced. Money aside for a moment and imagine a forth line of crash the net, physical, responsible players, what a boost that would be.
Defense is similar. Some really good talent. Yet Bouchard is a one way talent. You can keep him but then you need to adjust partners and boost his weaknesses. Desharnais has won the job. Broberg is playing scared, limping him along like this costs the team, costs his development, and his trade value. Sit Vinnie (who can take it) and fully back Broberg – or send Broberg down today.
What no justification of this sh*t team by pointing to the Oilers 1st place in 5v5 xGF%??
Wait for it…..
It’s just hockey.
This is not a button-down team, they just aren’t built that way.
This is a pretty damning indictment. Maybe it explains why they never truly come through in the playoffs. Something has always been off about this team in the playoffs, at least when the going really gets tough.
Maybe this team was just never destined for great things.
We outplayed Vegas last year but got drilled on the goalie battle. This narrative that they have to be button down to win in the playoffs is bogus. If they play to their strengths and win every game 4-3 or 5-3 is that worth less than winning a playoff game 2-1? The problem is they are not built to win games 2-1 but the coach and everyone else is pushing them to do it regardless. Let them play their game, get a half-assed decent goalie and they will be fine.
This might just be the way
Vegas scored 26 goals in 5 games against Florida, 17 in 4 if you don’t count a 9-3 final game that was out of hand. That’s not button down, that’s dominating.
Be better than the other team, damned how many goals it takes.
ok, so no cup this year is the new mantra. It’s early, but unless McD. Ekholm, Mcleod, Brown play much better, recover from injury, I’m not optimistic. To paraphrase John Short , we’ll have to agree to disagree on the goalies. it seems like evet game they give up at least one bad one, and rare is the save that makes a guy go oh wow
Holland: Hey Steve, it’s me Kenny. How does Broberg, Campbell and a 2024 first rounder sound for James Reimer? When I was in Detroit, we had to get into the playoffs a bunch of times………blah blah blah etc.
Yzerman: (Clicking sound).
Holland: Hey Stevie, I think your phone is broken. I’ll call you right back.
This comment was meant in jest. If you try reading the Holland parts in Leslie Nielson’s voice it makes it funnier.
This season feels like 2017-2018. I keep hoping that it turns around the next game and they go on a winning streak but it never comes. We’re almost at the point of saying ‘they just need a 10 game winning streak to get back on track’.
On the other hand, we are chasing several teams that will tumble down the standings soon. We also haven’t played many division games which is an opportunity.
Key points for me:
-goalies need to make a save and get back to 910 goaltending
-mcdavid and draisaitl get back to their established production
-back check like OVI in the playoffs the year he won the cup. It wasn’t natural for him but that’s what it took to win.
Also would have loved one drama free season in the Mcdavid era but looks like we may never get that.
Which teams are you expecting to “tumble down the standings”?
Anaheim, Arizona, Vancouver.
Wildcard or 3 seed.
Edit: Tumble down is aggressive, not be as hot or ‘catchable over the long term’ for Vancouver. I know you disagree.
Tumble and will be passed: Anaheim, Arizona
Tumble and likely to be passed: Vancouver
Will do worse and gap will close but likely not caught: LA, Vegas
Vancouver has positioned themselves really well though.
Based on all the usual metrics.
Vancouver is red hot right now. Every single bounce going their way. They might even get a good year out of this, but mushy middle for ten years is their future.
Are you sure?
Elite #1C ✔️
Elite #2C ✔️
Elite #1D ✔️
Elite #1G ✔️
Centre depth bottom 6 ✔️
Generally those are the pieces championships teams are built around.
For a very long time the Canucks were sewered by a dreadful defensive core but Hronek has proved to be the perfect partner for Hughes.
They still have some work to do on the back end but they also have some high end prospects coming.
Arshdeep Bains leads the AHL in scoring.
Hunter Brzustewicz leads the OHL in scoring…he’s a defenseman.
Jonathan Lekkeramaki leads the SHL in goal scoring.
Likely not championship calibre yet but you can see it from here.
It’s impossible to look too far ahead because injury can have an outsized impact on results.
However, we can look at near term probabilities.
Starting with Vancouver for the rest of November…
Games against current playoff teams 5
Games against non playoff teams 9
Home 7 Road 7
BTB 2
I should note Vancouver plays San Jose twice more in November.
Would you expect a tumble in November?
I don’t care about November. Assuming full health from all teams (which the Oil currently don’t have mind you), I would expect enough regression from Vancouver over the course of the season to the point that the Oil could match or surpass them. Example, I’ve always loved Hughes game, I don’t think he scores at the 115 point pace he is on. Normalize that across the lesser lights and I believe the team will not continue the 123 point pace they are on.
Demko IS my fantasy team currently so I’ll have to bite that bullet.
You should care about November…that’s when playoff spots are generally won or lost.
I think it’s reasonable to project that Vancouver will win at least 8 games in the remainder of the month.
In order to make a significant dent in the 10 point lead they have over the Oilers, the Oilers would need to win at least 12.
Do you think they can/will?
It doesn’t matter. A softer schedule in November does not exlude 4-5 more months of a tougher schedule. You’ve made that point yourself a thousand times.
You don’t need to know which ones will tumble to know that some will tumble.
Just like you don’t have to know which shots will go in the net, but statistics tells you that certain number will go in.
PDO is an indicator as to the probability that teams will tumble. The Canucks are currently leading the league at 106. I’m sure you can explain to us why that won’t change.
The Ducks, Canucks, and Coyotes are all riding PDO heaters. That’s 3/8 of the current playoff spots. (Vegas and Dallas are also riding PDO heaters, although they’ll presumably still be playoff-worthy once regression hits.)
You’re assuming all teams eventually revert to 100.
They don’t.
No, I’m not assuming all teams eventually revert to 100.
I’m assuming they revert to something a lot closer to 100 than the Canucks are currently at.
Thing is it’s impossible to know when or by how much that regression might occur.
Here’s a look at things.
https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/understanding-the-canucks-hot-start-by-the-numbers
This projection currently has EDM and VAN finishing with 94 and 93.5 points respectively, with considerable overlap, fighting for 3rd in the division, both making the playoffs.
All of the analytics measures can and will regress as GP or the size of the sample increases. For example, nobody is talking about the Oilers xGF% heater – but basically, that’s what it is.
Regression is not related to the measure (count, rate, or percentage). It’s a function of the sample size.
PDO matters, because small changes in PDO over the course of a season are very powerful.
From here:
PDO (SH% + SV%) exhibits a stronger relationship to desired outcomes than any of the possession or shot quality metrics. Proponents of Corsi have generally argued that there is a “natural” shooting and save percentage and that elevated PDO (above 100) indicates that goals and saves are happening because of luck. This narrative originates from the comments section on the now-defunct Irreverent Oiler Fans blog (“PDO” was the avatar of participant Brian King). The correlates produced here indicate that either the game of hockey has more to do with luck than Corsi or that interpretation of PDO is flawed. Clearly SH% and SV% are very important to the game and some teams are better at shooting and saving than others.
A more nuanced version of the PDO narrative is that each team exhibits its own SH% and SV% and that PDO can exceed 100 without being characterized as “lucky”. Generally speaking, however, increases in SH% are viewed as being subject to “regression” while attempted shots are not. Likewise a decrease in shot attempts against is favoured over Save Percentage as a defensive tactic. SH% has a stronger relationship with GF/60 (0.84) than any shot, attempted-shot, or chances metric. SV% has a stronger relationship with GA/60 than any shot, attempted-shot, or chance against metric. This is of course because these percentages are a product of both goals and shots.
This analysis indicates that sustainable increases in PDO, even if small, have important effects or can be symptoms of positive change. Such increases occur through the pursuit and limiting of shot quality, or by having better shooters or goalies. In a previous analysis using all-situations data the author was able to demonstrate that PDO could be a better predictor than Corsi for FGF% (R2=0.49). The current analysis for 5v5 data does not exactly duplicate those findings. It’s likely that the previous results were the product of special teams. PDO is found here to have a much stronger relationship to goals than seems to be assumed by proponents of Corsi.
My own view is that the 2016-17 team never really felt like a good team. I remember watching them midseason and thinking “how is this team going to make the playoffs??” It was built on a surging McDavid and a Cam Talbot masterclass. When class ended the following season, the team fell back to earth.
The team we’ve had for the past few seasons has been a much more convincing in their play… including the team that played last night.
When I see Draisaitly whiff 90% of his signature one-timers, when I see catastrophic errors leading to goals against the run of play, and when I see no one able to finish their chances, I see our yearly mid-season slump. This stretch feels like December came early for our Oilers. Hopefully December doesn’t stretch into December.
If that team wasn’t screwed by the refs in the Anaheim series (and Getzlaf breaking Sekera) they would have steamrolled Nashville. Take on Pittsburgh after that and anything can happen.
If mcdrai hasn’t learned by now they need to back check to win they are never going to.
Moops? That’s a misprint.
The game of mostly goalie is being won by the teams with the better.
There’s one fix, get a mostly goalie, run Skinner as the mostly goalies backup.
Maybe throw a pile of money at Slats to identify the mostly goalie first though.
+ reduce the number of high danger chances against. Maybe if they implemented some sort of “swarm” type defense…
Whatever defensive system that works. But they all have to buy in and do it. Did I tell you I have scratchy beard too ?
You did my scratchy beard brother. I’m not so much cowboy though…
I think a better goalie saves a few more puck but not many more games. Once in the NHL I believe the difference between 8.90 vs 9.25 save percentage is mostly due to the team in front of them. I would put my money into defending.
This. You cut down the high danger chances with a defense that can actually defend and the goalie save % will magically increase.
* Edit: team than can defend. It’s more than just the defenders. Otherwise you have to outscore and the Oilers are stuck in the middle. Trying to defend, but can’t, and stifling the offense in the meantime. Plus our PP wizardry has disappeared…
Man that’s a long list. Kenny still on holidays?
Not much time between now and Saturday afternoon and the Oilers currently have 10 healthy forwards.
I’m not sure the status of either Janmark or Brown but I’m presuming that Janmark won’t be ready (he hasn’t been practicing) and who knows what the deal is on Brown.
I’ve generally been so against sending Broberg down but, with his error last night, Woody/Manson will now play him even less so, unless one of those two forwards go on LTIR (or Brown is good enough to play), they really have no choice but to send down Broberg and call up a forward to go with 11/6 and play a skater short.
Who would get that call? Pederson is still hurt so its likely between Lavoie, Hamblin and Malone.
I think we all would want to see Lavoie, I’m not sure it wouldn’t be one of the two with experience given how much the GM and head coach crave veterans with experience.
I’d like to see Lavoie. But I’m not sure how to get him up and running with the big club. I wouldn’t be against sending Broberg down in order to get a climps of Lavoie. How about?
Leon-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Nuge-Gagner
Foegele-MacLeod-Lavoie
Holloway & Ryan
But then only 6 Dmen.
They sure could use that elusive tough as nails,defensively sound , PKing ,with a scoring touch 4th line center. Whoever he is?
Janmark always seems to get injured and who knows what’s going on with Brown???
Meh – The Oilers win that game last night at least five times out of 10. Yes, I know, 3rd game in 4 nights for Dallas and that had a part of the third period but the Oilers, generally, played very well even before that.
Damn, stupid, effing mistakes.
Bad pinch by Ceci.
Bad dump by Broberg combined with a bad change by Holloway.
McDavid deciding to give up on the backcheck and get beat to the net by the 2nd older player in the league.
Skinner not making saves and Wedgewood making many.
3 posts by Bouchard.
Leon being off and missing shots he normally buries.
McDavid being a shadow of himself.
—————————-
Don’t get me wrong, it IS time to be very concerned.
Something is off but I think the overall roster and organization has the personnel to right this ship.
I’m not certain it will happen but I do believe it can happen and it should happen.
Right on. Great post.
“I’m not certain it will happen…”
This is the problem. The team is underachieving from top to bottom and needs to be held accountable. I don’t think it’s going to happen.
Is it just me, or do the Oilers tend to do well on scoring chance %, and even HDCA, but do terribly on catastrophic chances against? They seem to do well ordinarily, but make a small number of utter bonehead mistakes with a 75% likelihood of giving up a goal.
One idea that desperately needs to die – that you play “really strong games” and lose, right before you win. Maybe for mediocre teams.
For one – as a top talent team it is exceedingly rare that you play these sorts of games and lose. Almost never happens. Your fate is in your hands – not theirs. If someone wants to argue the Oilers aren’t a top talent team, go right ahead.
Also – getting blown out once in a long while is far less soul-crushing than having some players bust their ass and get close.
Close results also mask important flaws that need to be corrected, but are instead dismissed with “just keep doing what you’re doing…we’re close”.
Are you though?
Whether the team starts winning or not depends on whether you’re actually addressing the problems. Whether they’re actually executing. In this team’s case – whether they stop playing with the intensity and focus of a rec league game on the powerplay and get down to business. Whether the defencemen stop drifting around making weak pinches and following the play blindly. Whether Evander Kane and Sam Gagner can play like last night and be the fourth or fifth best forwards that night…not the only ones giving a damn or letting their talent show.
With the opposition the Oilers have faced, #s 97 and 29 had better be mad as hell at themselves. Those are not appropriate counting stats for them.
You missed the most important point – whether the goalies actually make a save? When our team save percentage on high danger chances is by far the worst in the league, I’m pretty sure that is the biggest issue.
While I want it to be better in net – by their offensive capabilities, the Oilers should have lost 2 games so far – the first Van game and the Minnesota game. Maybe the Rangers shut them down as well for sake of argument, so 3.
The other games should have been Ws with Oilers performing offensively. They aren’t.
They played well enough to win. Regression will come, they’re playing too good to have a record this bad. This isn’t the DOD ‘fancy’s look nice if only they could do it more than once ‘ type loss. This is consistent.
The dice have no memory but they deserved a point at minimum. The hockey gods don’t care about deserved. They seriously have burned all of their daylight.
What I don’t understand is how they can’t beat a single backup goalie. Do they think they’re all Adin Hill?
I’m incredibly worried that Holland is going to go full steam ahead and keep Connor Brown on the roster past 9 games, because he doesn’t care about next year.
Having that 3.25M on the books for next year is a Chiarelli-signing-Koskinen-for-three-years level catastrophe.
Having that 3.25M on the books for next year is a Chiarelli-signing-Koskinen-for-three-years level catastrophe.
No, it’s not.
I raised concerns about the Brown signing on the day when everybody else seemed to love it. But even I don’t think it’s Koskinen-level stupid.
The Koskinen contract was particularly terrible because Koskinen was initially signed at the same time, out of the same league, as Pavel Francouz. Francouz had put up better KHL numbers, yet Sakic managed to sign him for league minimum, and stow him in the minors for a year. We had to sign – and then extend! – Koskinen for 3X as much, and play him immediately.
LT QUOTE – “I’m not one to rip the GM, I gave him good grades often in the past. For me, he’s had an F start to the season. He’s unable to help the roster and he’s the general manager. I know it isn’t his fault”
My question is why isn’t it his fault?
Holland has been on the job 4 1/2 years. As the guy paid and held accountable to assemble the team, I believe A LOT of the blame does lay at Holland’s feet.
Read the rest of the sentence JT. It’s not his fault that McDavid, Ekholm and McLeod are hurt but it is his problem.
well if you think that’s the only factor contributing to this mess …. injuries are a good excuse …
Bruins lost their captain and best forward, and another top forward permanently and haven’t missed a beat
Deeper roster, better coaches. Holland could have also built that
Better coaching and significantly better goaltending.
They actually play and execute a system. They have the system to fall back on.
Are all the traditional analytics completely useless?
Oilers (League rank)
CF% 56% (3rd)
FF% 55% (3rd)
xGF% 55% (5th)
HDCF% 57% (3rd)
GF% 41% (27th)
HDGF% 30% (30th)
no they aren’t. what it means, is they are due for a regression in a good way.
So instead of finishing the season 20-60-2; you might see a record like 40-35-7.
see how that works?
The biggest anomaly I came across from natural stat trick is that both the Sharks and the Oilers have 23 HDGA, the Sharks have given up 182 HDCA events and the Oilers have only given up 99 HDCA
As per my comment above, I wonder if Oilers HDCA includes way more chances with a 75% chance of allowing a goal.
Well for one thing (and there are more things) we keep losing the game of GOALIE. We routinely are 2nd best in most games so far this year.
When you do the regression analysis public analytics aren’t predictive, especially not of the Cup winner. There are numbers that are strongly correlated with in-season PTS%, like GF%. But it breaks down pretty quickly when trying to predict playoff success.
If you believe that public analytics are the be-all and end-all you are being punked by any number of snake oil salesmen. The numbers themselves are not terribly useful. They are measures that need to be married with a good eye for the game.
Some numbers of concern for EDM:
All Scores: SV% 87% (31st), HDSV% 70% (32), HDSH% (31), HDGF% 30% (30), HDGA60 2.54 (32), GA60 3.97 (30), HDCA60 11.0 (25TH),
When Trailing: SV% 85% (32nd)
We give up too much. It’s bad team defence, bad slot defence and our goalies aren’t good enough to mask the mistakes. Defence and goaltending collapse when trailing.
The big guns are broken right now. They are getting the shots to the net, but they don’t have good finish which is why, combined with score effects, we post such positive shot-attempt metrics.
The saves and finishing will likely regress – particularly if 97 can get healthy (hopefully it’s not one of these situations where surgery is being postponed). But I don’t see them tightening the D and G to the point of winning a cup without major changes.
————————————————–
All sits measures & rank of Cup Winners
VGK 2022-2023 (League rank)
CF% 43% (22nd)
FF% 45% (17th)
xGF% 49% (20th)
HDCF% 46% (16th)
GF% 50% (20th)
HDGF% 47% (20th)
SH% 11% (19th)
SV% 91% (15TH)
SH% + SV% 102 (19th)
COL 2021-2022 (League rank)
CF% 49% (5th)
FF% 50% (8th)
xGF% 53% (9th)
HDCF% 45% (21ST)
GF% 56% (11th)
HDGF% 52% (13th)
SH% 12% (12TH)
SV% 91% (14TH)
SH% + SV% 103 (14th)
TBL 2020-2021 (League rank)
CF% 49% (5th)
FF% 50% (4th)
xGF% 56% (4th)
HDCF% 50% (11TH)
GF% 62% (1ST)
HDGF% 64% (4th)
SH% 12% (9TH)
SV% 93% (4TH)
SH% + SV% 105 (3RD)
TBL 2019-2020 (League rank)
CF% 44% (4th)
FF% 49% (3rd)
xGF% 54% (3rd)
HDCF% 49% (9TH)
GF% 54% (8th)
HDGF% 48% (19th)
SH% 11% (16TH)
SV% 91% (13TH)
SH% + SV% 103 (12th)
STL 2018-2019 (League rank)
CF% 47% (7th)
FF% 48% (6th)
xGF% 52% (6th)
HDCF% 52% (2nd)
GF% 57% (6th)
HDGF% 60% (2nd)
SH% 12% (7TH)
SV% 92% (17TH)
SH% + SV% 103 (13th)
This is the post of the day.
Have loved being able to see this team in the playoffs. Have loved seeing amazing players develop. But it seems like no matter how blessed we are with getting both Leon and Conner the past mismanagement plus the brutal cap has stumped this teams. Other teams have found a way with less, Oilers haven’t. I’m angry.
Nurse contract(s) and Soup signing were the final nails. Those closed the box. It would take Vegas level ruthless and discipline (and luck) for Oil to trade themselves out of that box, and it would mean last bid, all-or-nothing moves.
Yes indeed. 14 Million to two guys I wouldn’t trust defending my goal in oldtimers league.
There is not one apologist out there who could justify those contracts, ever.
And now, it has totally hamstrung this team for at least another 4 seasons.
Any coach worth his salt knows you send Gagner out there 6-on-5 after that performance and looking for the hat trick.
Woodcroft can’t adjust.
“call your girlfriend, it’s time to have the talk”
Should I give her the “its not you, it’s me” routine?
You’re damn right it’s me! – George Costanza
What we need is a good old fashioned Baseball 4 game weekend series vs. The San Jose Sharks.
Vancouver plays San Jose twice more this month.
Oh my.
There’s another 20 goals
Any word on Brown it was obvious in preseason he wasn’t ready. Why was he playing at half speed in the top six? Connor Brown is not Jagr he needs to be going full tilt to be a NHL player and I didn’t see squat but a player hanging on.
A blessing in disguise. Hopefully he goes on LTIR then waived to the AHL when healthy. Maybe he’s claimed, but likely not.
Down goes Brown.
TIme to start running this organization like a business.