Evander Kane had a massive night on an evening when the Edmonton Oilers badly needed one. His hat-trick led a tremendous comeback for a club that needs a winning streak and every standings point under the sun. If the Oilers make the playoffs, last night’s game will be remembered as an important step on the journey.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers forward Dylan Holloway’s injury highlights concern over offensive potential
- Lowetide: What Oilers management must reckon with in roster construction
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers’ transition of power happening in real-time and the stakes couldn’t be higher
- Lowetide: Are the Oilers suddenly able to develop their own goalies?
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough value contracts this season?
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers’ crisis shifts to embarrassment after loss to the Sharks
- Lowetide: What if the Edmonton Oilers end up in the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery?
- Lowetide: 6 ways the Edmonton Oilers can improve in November
- Lowetide: Oilers already leaning on a push from the AHL. Who could be next?
- Lowetide: Can Connor McDavid come from behind to win another Art Ross Trophy?
- Lowetide: Will Edmonton Oilers redeem themselves after baffling October?
- Lowetide: Can the Edmonton Oilers make room for Raphael Lavoie?
- DNB: Oilers rewarded for their season’s most complete game in Heritage Classic win
- Lowetide: Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is spiking in an important area
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ injuries already a major story in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers count on any short-term help from AHL Bakersfield?
- Lowetide: Can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: DAL, NAS (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN, SJS, SEA (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: NYI, SEA (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR, WAS (Expected 1-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: ANA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual November results: 3-4-0, 6 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 5-9-1, 11 points in 15 games
A huge victory for the team, Kris Knoblauch now 2-0-0 as Edmonton’s head coach. The road trip is going to be a monster, and the rest of the month has no bargains. Winning last night, making it three victories in a row for the club, is a big damn deal.
THE NUMBERS
Evander Kane is that rare player who can play a punishing physical game while also delivering goal-scoring ability. He had a helluva game last night. Absolute power forward. My goodness. Evan Bouchard was chaos at one end and brilliant at the other, picking up three assists. Leon Draiasaitl and Connor McDavid both played well and you can see things beginning to click for the glimmer twins. I thought Stuart Skinner had a fine game, although he sent a rebound into the slot that bounced past him. I’d like to see Ekholm-Broberg, even if it means 11-7 and trying the tandem on a road trip. It feels good to be talking about hockey again, as opposed to the Donner party and the gales of November.
The Oilers are seven points behind the Anaheim Ducks with a game in hand. This is not Everest.
We can’t ignore the mistakes nor the long periods of chaos chasing. Edmonton’s structure needs some work, and as I’ve said since summer (when the deployment issue became the new GOD) it’s about execution. Blaming the system is ridiculous, this isn’t rocket science. Recognizing danger and closing gaps are key. Evan Bouchard isn’t good at those things. He is still an exceptional NHL player.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we will spend the day talking about last night’s game, the value of a power forward, Bouchard’s dilemma and how Connor Brown will ease his way into the lineup. We’ll also talk about the new Vegas sports franchise and TNF. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Anyone remember when Evan Bouchard started to look like a complete defenseman last year? i do,
Post trade deadline.
Thank the gords he hasn’t lost his elite goal scoring confidence & production.
As soon as Ekholm is *healthy*, the d-zone coverage issues & turnovers will still exist but they will be far less glaring & hopefully less costly.
This is why you pair these two player types together.
The star that is EB will shine again.
Fin
He’s also averaging like 23 mins / night.
Minute-munching, point-producing right-shot all-situations D-man.
That’s a lot of hyphens, and what I mean to say is: do we really want to run this guy out of town for the inevitable mistakes young defensemen make?
When we aren’t screaming at a screen at the Black Frog, you certainly make a lot of sense.
Not PK.
Summarizing
Akey did not dress for tonight’s match.
7 points behind the mighty ducks. wow
Will it still be that way Jan 1st?
Highly doubtful
Ducks got pounded 8-2 last night
Methinks that Vatrano and Strome’s heaters are over and Lukas Dostal’s rookie-of-the-month honours are a one-off.
The Ducks and Coyotes are the bar we need to clear and I for one am not the least bit concerned.
1. In all situations Edmonton’s expected goal differential is plus-9.7 Actual retail price: minus-13. That 22-goal difference feels very unlikely to hold up and it’s why the model is still very bullish on the team’s playoff chances. The Oilers entered Wednesday’s game at 64 percent — never once dipping below 50 percent.
https://theathletic.com/5066889/2023/11/16/16-stats-mcdavid-canucks-nylander/
I don’t put a lot of care in any xGF. There are eye test issues with it. Getting a lot of shots in the HD area that aren’t actually dangerous skew it
I think expected goals for goalies is informative though
Huh?
It’s the same stat. Either it has value or it doesn’t.
Make up your mind.
GSaX, sorry Sir
Shooting and saving are related, obviously, but not the same. This is why statistics be hard
No, they aren’t “the same”. There are several xGF measures. Some, like those used by Money Puck, use techniques like “flurry adjustment” to try to filter-out some of the attempts that SS is talking about.
xGF% is not any more predictive than SF% (in some regression analyses SF% is in fact more predictive). To be fair, the intent of xGF% isn’t to be predictive, but to represent the events that are on the score sheet.
The problem is that which is not represented on the score sheet.
Puck location and distance are represented. But the position of defenders, origins of passes and sequences of play are not. High percentage plays like royal road cross-seam passes are not represented. Same goes for odd man rushes. Some rush plays are recorded, but higher percentage rushes are not differentiated from lower percentage rushes.
This is why the Oilers measure pretty well by xGA60. But they rank poorly in defensive zone giveaways to opponent, percent of giveaways in defensive zone, SV% and HDSV%, as well as non-score sheet private measures that look at odd-man rushes.
EDM is winning the expected goals battle, but loosing the mistakes battle. It turns-out that the mistakes battle is more important – but recorded only by SV%.
Pittsburgh and Carolina were -34.5 and -33.14 respectively in goals differential above expected last season (using money puck). And as you know, Carolina did well, but Pittsburgh was in wild card territory and missed the playoffs finishing right behind the Panthers.
Foegele 2.75M
Dowd and Reimer 2.8M
Is the team better? I think so
If the Wings are selling why would they want an expiring contract back?
I didn’t mean that the Wings would take WF for a goalie and a player not on their team
I think the Wings might start to drop
Reimer is 1.5M and good. Shouldn’t cost a ton if someone is looking over Kenny’s shoulder
I like Reimer at that price too. But he has a 7 team not trade list. There are 7 teams in Canada. It seems like Toronto did him in for other Canadian teams.
When was the last time Ryan McLeod scored a goal? It has been 15 regular season games this year, plus 12 playoff games last spring. I imagine the streak is at least 30 games. He and Ceci have to get lucky one of these days.
No goals in his last 31, and one goal in his last 44. Seeming a bit Tobias-Reider-ish.
Are we honestly forgetting how rare a first-shot scorer dman really is? That’s Al McInnis, Pronger, Lidstrom, Blake, Bourque, Iafrate. There aren’t a tonne of guys with this talent that don’t become something.
You don’t buy the present with an asset like this, you buy it’s future performance tethered to a level of certainty. And I believe Bouch’s upside is higher than it was at draft day. Last year’s playoff performance wasn’t even actually surprising but those numbers were enormous.
Offensively gifted defensively challenged D are not scarce. There is nearly always someone on the market every summer.
Bouchard has till the summer of 2025 to improve his D. If he doesn’t, it is not worth paying for the offense.
Mike Green still had a decent career.
Do we want Bouch to be Avs Barrie 2.0 tho?
This is true except for the first shot scorer part
There is something ridiculous when players use their team’s after a contract season, or else when they play with McDavid to be paid more than they would if they played for the Calgary Flames.
Nurse comes to mind, and Bouchard is no different.
Kings’ fans were generally happy to get a 2nd rounder back for Sean Durzi.
McD still appears to be a shadow of himself. The team in general isn’t nearly as exciting as it was very early in the season/last year. Very little buzz in the o-zone and few chances off the rush.
Teams have figured out how to play our low swing man system and the defence are back to high and hard outlets for the most part.
Sorry to hear you want to see last year’s deeply flawed team return.
This season they’re going to be playing more defensively. That will mean, more wins and less having other team’s hand Oilers a kickout when the playoffs roll around.
Like it has been for the last few seasons. Exciting team sure, but like the Canucks of their riot season powerplay addicts.
I say congrats to Desharnais for providing one of the biggest thrills of the evening! Man I laughed.
Thankfully that thrill was exceeded by the comeback.
These guys dug themselves quite a hole. And lack of production from bottom 6 is glaring. But looking at the playoff race other than PDO ponies, LA, Vegas, Dallas, Colorado there’s a few pretenders but not much else. Maybe Wild if they decide to run the kid we should have drafted. But The flower is toast
Kenny deciding the nice but inconsistent Foegele was more important than a decent C is not helping the bottom 6
I have time for Nic Dowd when the Caps start fading. 1.3M with a year left, RS, PK, typically good at faceoffs, 15min TOI/G. Not undersized, older like Kenny likes
PuckIQ likes him too
Oilers stole last night’s game. They just need to steal another 4 games or so to make them even on the year.
was never good at math but this tracks.
Optimism
The Oilers finished last season by going 29-5-6. Prorate that to the 67 games left this season and the record would be:
49-8-10 for 108pts. Add that to the 11 pts they have now and they’d have 119pts, which would be contender status. To make the playoffs, they’ll probably need to get to 100 pts. That would mean going something like 44-0-1, or 40-18-9. It’s a tall order but it’s possible.
The current pace for the playoffs would put the cut off at 93 points. That’s 38-23-6 the rest of the way.
Very achievable.
November looks difficult but a docked Tampa, green Ducks, and beatable Jets/Canes/Caps offer opportunities for points with 7 games left.
7 points will keep us alive, 9 points makes progress, 10 or more inspires confidence.
The playoff threshold tends to go up as the season progresses. 93 points is unlikely to be enough.
92 (east) and 95 (west) points made the playoffs last season, though it was higher the year before.
Is that a rule that’s been explored? Cut off last year in the west was 95 points at the end but around this point (arbitrary date chosen: Nov 10, 15ish games in) it was 98.
this year I would disagree with you.
Last year 95 for 2nd wildcard, 97 the year before so say 86 points
About 43W in 67 games – .641
In the crosshairs:
Wild – PDO 1.008 SH% 11.29 SV% .895
fLames – PDO .960 SH% 7.03 SV% .889
Kraken – PDO .982 SH% 6.78 SV% .914
Coyotes – PDO 1.018 SH% 9.32 SV% .922
Blues PDO – 1.033 SH% 9.03 SV% .942
Ducks PDO -.999 SH% 8.33 SV% .916
Kings PDO – 1.008 SH% 10.61 SV% .902
Knights PDO – 1.03 SH% 9.09 SV% .939
Dys – PDO – 1.056 SH% 11.5 SV% .941
Oilers – PDO .961 SH% 6.49 SV% .896
Looks like the Kraken Ducks and maybe fLames are the only ones with a possible sustain or upward move. Not going to catch the Knights or Dys likely, but Dys are possible
Or maybe they’ve crossed the rubicon and won’t dial it in like last season, but there is sure a lot of room for regression
Also correct. Especially as bottom teams start tanking about and top teams gain more points that way and get better with additional deadline deals.
Correct.
2016-17 – 95 east, 94 west
2017-18 – 97 east, 95 west
2018-19 – 98 east, 90 west
2021-22 – 100 east, 97 west
2022-23 – 92 east, 95 west
Those are the last 5 FULL seasons (non covid impacted).
So a bit of variance. Guess it’s safe to say you NEED 90 points to even have a chance.
Seems like 94 is a more realistic expectation
100 gets you in, the rest *might* get you in.
I stand corrected. Anaheim is in the final wildcard spot by Points% and they are on a pace of 18pts in 16gp, which prorates to 92.25 points after 82. Still a daunting, but not insurmountable task.
When Stauff asked Keith Gretzky how Bourgault was doing (yesterday on Oilers Now), the AGM was, well, less than glowing.
He did compliment Bourgault’s development in board battles and, in particular, on the defensive zone half boards and getting the puck out, but mainly spoke about him continuing to learn what it takes to compete at his level and, mainly, his consistency – not just impacting the game for pockets here and there but more consistency in, well to paraphrase in my own word, committed effort to do the small things.
I will say that Bourgault seemed to be one of the better forwards last night (although I had the game on in the background with the Oil game on so wasn’t fully engaged in my watching).
He needs to score way more if he ever hopes to fulfill his draft expectations. Looking like a dubious pick right now, but time will tell. He is only 21 so still has time to develop and grow, but most impact players will show something by his age.
Don’t mind what we are seeing out of Lavoie in short minutes out there. He has made a few mistakes along the wall but I like his compete down low and in front of the net. He seems to be willing to get on the body which may allow him to stay on the team in a 4th line role. Hopefully the team can get up a few in a game and he can play more.
Most players need time. Few are the ones that walk in and are at an overall high level
If he has enough game sense he certainly has everything else to do well in the NHL
Given the paucity of finishers I hope it’s a priority to get him usable asap
Bouchard reminds me of Jeff Petry. Big glaring mistakes, sticks in the brain. All the good stuff forgotten about. Just don’t make the mistake we made with Petry.
And what Jeff really needed was coaching and to play his game. He was better when away from the BoB regime
Pietrangelo has his defensive issues as well at times, and other than being a sticking swinging psycho isn’t exactly physical
Oilers are still missing the last top 6 winger. I think we all know that Gagner is not a long term fit there and, for now, he’s not really a short term fit.
The hope is still that Brown fill that role as we head through the season, in to the stretch drive and the playoffs. I presume he might start a bit down the lineup in his first few games back but the hope has to be that Brown can be the 2nd top 6 RW as Gagner is best served down the lineup.
In the interim, well, the team is on a three game winning streak so changes up top are not likely but Kane/Gagner have shown some early chemistry this season – a Hyman/Gagner swap could be something.
Its too bad that none of Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault are ready for that spot (and unlikely to be anytime soon – give or take a popping Holloway and a return this calendar year which is far from certain).
I almost turned off the game when Knob went McDrai 4 periods into his tenure when it was a 0-0 game. Refreshing that he split them in the 3rd period again.
Analytics will say 29 and 97 were on the ice for all 3 GF in regulation so “sEe yOu HaVe tO pLaY tHeM tOgEtHeR”. It doesn’t account for how it depletes the rest of the forward groups and completely sewers momentum gained throughout the game. I truly hope that this HC learns from each of his failed predecessors.
I posted in real time last night that I was on-board with the “load up” but for a short period of time – through the second period at the longest.
Those two were put together for a situational shift, after a PP where PP2 had significant time and that duo had huge energy together and scored.
I had no problem trying to parlay that for a series of shifts and then head back to the starting lines once the energy bump was gone.
That is exactly what happened – great job by the coach, in my opinion.
KK said he would pair them at times, especially down. To me it’s more about whether coach will be more willing to look at different player usages
Like last playoffs. Ryan was playing well, has skill and we know is a smart player. But when Yama was struggling to me that’s who I would have tried top 6. I hope KK uses the best available option regardless of anything else
I also hope the coaches can get more players involved in PK and doing well. I think Woody had trouble getting more from the roster, and then felt snookered in feeling able to say use Ryan top 6 as the TOI would be high and maybe they thought Derek couldn’t handle it for a week or two. Which I don’t agree with
I think that’s the first non-$5,000 fine I’ve ever seen. George Parros smoking that shit that make Adam Erne look like Alex Pietrangelo.
It’s because fines can only be for a max of 50% of a player’s daily salary up to $5,000. Sam Lafferty got one last April for $3,108.11
Ahh that makes sense, thanks!
I thought it would be 4 games minimum when I watched it. It looked like elbow straight to the face. Not sure what the DPS saw differently.
My interpretation was that there was no weight behind the elbow. It was more on the lines of a punch to the head, which is 2 mins for roughing…vs delivering a check with your elbow which can be 5min + suspensions when it has the momentum and kinetic force of your whole body behind it.
While the last 3 wins in a row have been more than welcome they weren’t exactly against upper tier teams. In fact all 5 wins this season have come against weaker opposition. The next 4 road games are against winning teams and will provide a bit more clarity on this years version of the Oilers. I would consider 4 pts on this trip a win!
It has been an incredibly soft schedule to start the season.
Rangers and Dallas ( exhausted version)
McLeod is a legit NHL player, but for my money he doesn’t bring any grit. That is something I think a 3rd line needs. He skates well and can carry the puck, but way too many fly-bys when he’s forechecking. I’m not sure that’s in his DNA. A great skills competition player, but his skills don’t translate into the muck of a real game.
This is where coaching comes in. He can be himself but can be better at it
Well said. He doesn’t grind, get in the danger areas, or score goals. He’s a periphery player.
I like his speed but he doesn’t do effective things with it.
i agree 100%. Does anybody else here think that for the “win now” mode the Oilers are in, they should have kept Bjugstad with the $2M that Mcleod is getting and traded Mcleod for a second (assuming that was there which I suspect it would have been if he had been available)…I know the narrative that Mcleod’s line did a better job checking Eichel against Vegas but to my eyes that was a result more of Foegele and Ryan playing well with Mcleod, and Hyman and Nuge playing poorly with Bjugstad…anyways there are many things plaguing the Oilers but the third line being invisible offensively and mediocre defensively is high on the list and one less likely to change than the other large issues of the PP and Mcdavid not firing on all cylindars.
That’s the frustrating part about McLeod – he has the speed to beat his defender to the front of the net, consistently. But he just skates on by and takes himself out of the play.
Staples had a good line about this last night on their podcast – he’s trying to model his game after McDavid, but he should watch what Kane does, and what Hyman does instead.
So much talent there to be unlocked. Hope K2 can coach him up to his potential.
Last night’s stats line
3A, 1SOG, 23:54 TOI, 23 shifts, +2, 2BLK, 2 Hits, runs the PP1, Starts OT, 24 year on a good contract, 48th in the NHL for TOI
The comment section is filled with his issues.
keep moving people, let’s connect when he 27, until then enjoy what we have.
Thank you for a positive comment. I know most people in the advanced stat community look down on +-, but if all your players are even or better you win the game which is all that should matter.
As Louie says ‘they don’t ask how – just how many’.
Wait, isn’t Evan 15 points in 15 games but a minus 3? He is very Oily
Yet I agree, give him lots of love when hes up, because he needs it when he’s down. In my opinion, he is not a throw him over the boards in any situation type player. He needs some cover and he needs deployed strategically. He has ice cold nerves handling that puck as last man back. Most will give up the blue line and exit the zone for a re-group during OT, Bouchard holds it inside the line and stackhandles in a phone booth.
Warren Foegele is a microcosm of the current season at 5v5:
CF% = 59.8 / CF%rel = 3.8 / FF% = 57.4 / FF%rel = 2.7 / PDO = 89.6 / oiSV% = 85.1
Advanced stats show he is playing well at 5v5. Both PDO and oiSV% should regress in a positive direction which should take care of his current -9.
Foegele is 3-3-6 in 15 games which in on pace for 16-16-32 and he has never had more than 30 points in any NHL season.
Conclusion: On pace for new high in scoring and plus minus will improve.
the only thing with Foegle when he loses the puck at the opponents blue line it gets sent in For GAs. he has cut back on these since going down to the third line
I think most would be in favour of subbing Broberg in for Vinny. I know leftie/righty is an issue but not only does Broberg need to play (in a 6D set-up) but Vinny has been struggling (by eye) at evens and this “focus on loving the puck fast” seems made for Broberg over Vinny.
With that said, the PK has been a huge part of recent success and, at least last night, they used 4 d-men on the kill, pretty much even split among the four and Kulak and Bouch saw zero time on the PK.
I think Broberg is developing well I. The PK (by eye) but do they take Vinny out given his role on the PK?
i think the PK would really struggle and TBH other than a few bad plays here and there I don’t think he has struggled. Other than the goal off his skates I can’t think of a mistake he made or battle he lost that cost them a goal all season. Can you? I may be the president and only member of the Vinny fan club…I like Kulak but think they should trade him for an upgrade at 3C (Colton Sissons or Nic Dowd) and play Broberg 3LD
Yep.
I don’t see anything wrong with Desharnais. Which goal last night was his fault? How many mistakes did he make?
It looked like Bouchard and Eckholm were the pair that really struggled through the first 2 periods last night.
I’m really not sure that Broberg is better than any of the Oilers 6 dmen right now, but I think he’s going to get a chance for a few games.
If they are replacing Desharnais with Broberg I hope they move Kulak over to the right side.
I also loved the way KK started overtime with Draisaitl and the 2 dmen. I like the logic behind the move. And if Draisaitl wants to play with McDavid in overtime he bloody well better win the draw.
I’d almost guarantee that if Leon wins that draw mcdavid is jumping over the bench. I like the strategy though. If you start without possession, have two defense out there.
Coach expressly said that was the plan if they won the draw!
The team game at 5v5 has to be better as we know. Vinny can help but I’m not sure the right partner is on the roster for him. Like Bro
Lowetide, I suspect coming up with monthly “what to expect” for the team this year might prove to be the most difficult endeavor yet
— Bouchard is akin to a high beta stock with strong underlying metrics that an investor hopes grow into its valuation
— I would observe that most in here are nervous nellies: they want GIC risk and can’t stomach the bad shifts that Bouch has which are vastly less important than the amazing shifts that can’t be replicated where he generates huge equity
— You don’t sell that volatility and replace with way less high end and slightly higher floor.
Nah.
He’s more like a British sports car. Has the ability to perform well, but always seems to be leaking.
Thank for the PTSD about my old TR4 – Lucas was the prince of darkness of motor vehicle electrical systems.
Note: engine also leaked but not as bad as the 1990 911.
As an MG aficionado, I recall a great bumper sticker that read : All parts and assemblies falling from this vehicle are of the finest British craftsmanship”… I kid you not.
Bouchard reminds me oh Phil Housley.
Member of the Hockey Hall of Fame, Phil Housley.
To continue the analogy: the odd high B contributor to your portfolio is fine so long as you’ve got a reasonable distribution around your desired portfolio B. The Oilers have other high B contributors and not a lot of nice, stable plain vanilla staples and utility stocks. Hence the high-event nature of the overall team. They need more balance: a better stay at home guy than Ceci, Nurse being more responsible in coverage, an upgrade on Vinny, etc.
I’d also argue that Bouche has a low upside-downside ratio. His good days are good but his bad days are an outsized bad, yesterday being somewhat of an outlier (of late). Beta assumes a normal distribution, and that ain’t Bouche.
That said, I adore Bouche and believe he has a vital role on the team. A first-shot scorer from the back end is a rare asset. To me, that’s a keeper.
The good ole eye test. The one true way to evaluate defensemen. Doesn’t matter when a guys a river pusher who generates offense and isn’t a hanger on or point thief like Barrie. Doesn’t matter that Bouchard has been the best Rel defensemen the last eight games carrying around Ekholm. Hell by the end of this roadtrip he’ll be back to positive in +/-
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=20239
The only Oiler Dman with a + xGF% and + xGFRel is the goat who needs to be on the 3rd pair or traded. Brilliant player management.
Gotta bench him for a dude who can’t outplay Vinny Desharnais for a roster spot. Luckily for all involved Vinny is probably playing his last NHL games, this Florida portion will solidify it.
Have to Sather Bouch. If Ek gets better he’s the answer as we know. If he doesn’t a hot GM would get him a helpful partner
Yes you should Sather Bouch… its probably why Paul Coffey is on the Oilers bench.
Not the same player but the same type of player. Think Scott Niedermayer or Godot’s example of Larry Murphy.
This is all well and good, but the problem is his mental lapses often lead to goals against. What’s the point in winning the fancies when you give it all back in an instant?
It’s the same as playing in front of a poor goalie. You can win battles, play the right way, and have the puck moving in the right direction, but it’s deflating to be playing from behind due to continual defensive mistakes and poor coverage.
Bouch is an excellent player. He is also soft as butter left on your counter on a 40 degree summer day in his own zone along the boards and out front. Just a touch of improvement there will help those crazy giveaways he is involved in.
I’m not going to trash Bouchard, but he has cost us games this year. He’s also won us games. When the eye test is unforced giveaways near the net, and very weak puck battles in the corner, it has some merit. Skinner made a huge save on one of those giveaways last night that was a game changer.
Yep, nailed it. Bouchard is our best D’man right now and a #1D going forward. He’s elite in the offensive zone and he’s elite breaking the puck out of the defensive zone.
Desharnais has his strengths (PK, good breaking up the cycle) but has no footspeed and is a disaster in the neutral zone. Plus he can’t make a pass so no clean D zone exits. There’s a reason the third pair is playing 12 minutes a night and it’s not Kulak.
I kinda feel like they should load the bottom 6, kind of reverse of loading the top line strategy. Put Draisaitl and McDavid with the worst wingers and put Nuge and McLeod with the best. Healthy lineup:
Brown / McDavid / Holloway
Lavoie / Draisaitl / Ryan
Gagner / Nugent-Hopkins / Foegele
Hyman / McLeod / Kane
Probably a silly idea, but maybe that’s what it takes to get the bottom six going and to get McDavid and Draisaitl going. Plus, if teams do less top Defensive player line matching, maybe that gives McDavid the room to breathe and get things back on track.
As the opposition coach, who do you put your best D and defensive forwards out against?
Could be fun!
Not enough assets to fill the holes for a cup run and that doesn’t take into account future injuries.
They need a legit 3rd line right center. They only have 2 real centers on this roster and every coach plays them together eventually.
They need a 1B goalie to play right away.
They need a legit top 4 RS defenseman.
I hope McDavid becomes immortal during the playoff because this team will need a god-like performance.
McDavid, Draisaitl, McLeod are all legit centers. McLeod is underrated.
Hey, it’s only like my opinion man, but Clouder is a winger in the top 9.
Ryan McLeod: 60% Corsi, 58% shots, 55% expected goals, 17% goals.
One of these things is not like the others. Some of it is on him, but that 938 PDO won’t last forever.
I don’t think McLeod is underrated at all. He skates a million miles for sure and is fast. He barely goes hard to the front of the net or into the corners ( last few games has been better) . He is a solid Pk guy. He does not shoot enough ( This has always been an issue) and doesn’t hit much.
Maybe this coach, who already has stated he likes this player can finally get him to be more of an offensive contributor by playing harder and pushing more to the goal than playing on the perimeter
Campbell, a 1st and 2nd, McLeod and Lavoie to Calgary for Elias Lindholm (ret) and Markstrom.
That pretty much fills the gaps.
You’re forgetting the 3rd team it’ll take to make it happen. No way Flames trade that directly to the oilers unless it includes huberdeau.
I think Calgary can get WAAAAAAAAAYYYY more than that for Lindholm alone.
he will command a lot at the deadline
The team as is can compete for the cup. They were very, very close last year and I don’t see them as being any worse – from a talent perspective – this year. I’d love to see them improve their personnel, but they are still pretty damn good.
From the post-trade deadline team from last year? You’ve swapped out Kostin, Bjugstad and Yamo for some combination of Erne/Lavoie/Gagner/Brown/Holloway/Hamblin. Unless Brown and Gagner can seriously roll back the odometer, I see that as a pretty big downgrade in talent.
edit: or Lavoie or Holloway can show something at the NHL level
I believe they are down a winger as Brown has not been the equal to the ‘run out of town’ Yamamoto. Still time to see if Brown can get his legs (ACL) under him and his hands working to score.
I don’t think Bouchard is the answer for 3-om-3 overtime, even though he was in on the GWG. He’s just too slow to react and when the opposition has that much room he is a defensive liability which also gives them less opportunities offensively as he is way less likely to win a puck battle to get possession back once they lose it. I was so nervous when he was on to start last night once Edmonton didn’t have the puck. He did a lot of watching from what I witnessed.
Perhaps the plan was to weather the first 45 seconds of overtime, and then toss a fresh McDavid over the boards against the Krakens tiring 3 players.
Possibly, but if you’re ‘weathering’, I don’t think Bouchard is the guy to do that. Kulak would be better at ‘weathering’. Kulak’s fast and more defensively responsible, and actually has pretty good offensive chops when given room. Bouchard’s more of a ‘leaking-staring’ guy that could help finish OT for the other team. Bouchard’s great at scoring, but much of OT is defending at 3-on-3 and jumping on opportunities, and Bouchard is NOT a jumper.
There was a wild moment when Bouche gave the puck away and was the last man back in OT. He poked it up to Kane who had a low-percentage battle for the puck but still outmuscled Gorde. Great plays. Lucky plays. I’ll take it but that could have easily gone the other way.
I did like him out on it , and you can’t put Nurse with him instead of Ekholm, because Nurse will go with the puck as well and no one will be able to defend period. I think If they want to play 2 D , I would put McD his speed instead of Drai with those 2. Put Drai with Nurse
Nurse is aggresive enough to go with the puck but also fast enough and reactive enough to get back in time. I think Nuirse has been great historically when starting OT. McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse has been pretty lethal, no?
Overtime shifts:
Draisaitl 1
McDavid 1
RNH 1
Hyman 1
Kane 1
Ekholm 1
Nurse 1
Bouchard 2
I’m thinking the coach has a different take.
Absolutely. If I thought we had the same take, I wouldn’t be commenting.
Bouchard has played 12:52 of 3 on 3 over the last 3 seasons (including this season) and is 2-0 goals.
That’s a pretty small sample. 3 season prior to this year players with positive goal differential at 3-on-3 (still on the team)…
McDavid 61:31 – 11GF-8GA (8G, 3A)
Draisaitl 57:49 – 10GF-4GA (2G, 7A)
Nurse 53:10 – 10GF-7GA (2G, 5A)
McLeod 8:00 – 1GF-0GA (0 PTS)
Bouchard 9:01 – 1GF-0GA (0 PTS)
McDavid-Draisaitl-Nurse work pretty well together.
In the past 3 season Nurse is tied for 4th among D in OT points. Hughes-9 (92:18min!!), Klingberg-8(65:46), Theodore-8(61:54).
GF when Nurse is on, he’s tied for 5th among D
Hedman-12, Faulk-12, Klingberg-12, Theodore-11, Nurse-10.
Point shots (Bouchard’s meat ‘n’ potatoes) aren’t particularly useful at 3-on-3 (not much opportunity for screens, traffic, or deflections). Often chances come when a player interrupts the other teams O-zone chance or pounces on a loose puck (something I trust Nurse to do more than Bouchard), and then create a rush. I trust Nurse’s wheels to get up and join a rush if needed more than Bouchard’s. And on a breakaway or two-on-one, I also trust Nurse’s wrist shot more than Bouchard’s. Nurse has a pretty hard accurate wrister when speeding over the blueline.
That’s why I think Nurse is a better fit at 3-on-3.
You initial post wasn’t about Nurse being a better fit at 3 on 3, it was solely about Bouchard being a bad fit at 3 on 3.
The sample is indeed too small but it doesn’t back up the opinion.
I disagree that Bouch doesn’t have the skill-set. I agree with the point shot but his primary skill is creative passing with the puck and we saw that with both the 2nd goal last night and the 3 on 3 goal last night.
Not to mention, Bouch is the best outlet passer on the team so pounding on those loose pucks and dishing to the activating forward, well, that IS Bouch’s game, no?
Yes, it was Bouhcard being the wrong fit. But he’s the wrong fit with his skillset but also there is a better proven fit.
I’m not sure you have to be the perfect passer at 3-on-3. There is so much room out there and your targets are skating to open ice when you have the puck. And I’d say there are more opportunities for cross-ice passes on rushes than long outlet stretch passes. I think skating and playing Keep Away is much more valuable.
“pouncing on those loose pucks and dishing to the activating forward” – half of that is Bouchard’s game. The pouncing part, not so much. So much hesitation in his game.
Bouchard plays a much more stationery game (in both zones), which isn’t dynamic enough for 3-on-3. And it was downright scary to watch him last night when the other team had the puck in OT.
I’m a huge Evan Bouchard fan, but the way his game is coming along I am unfortunately being pushed into the camp that would see him traded at the deadline.
Partially because of his flaws, and partially because they’re stuck with Nurse’s absurd cap hit, there just isn’t space in the 3 pairs. A team that really needs the offensive jumper cables will pay for him. And you can grab a rental PP QB at the deadline.
Makes me sad but that reality is going to stare them in the face right away unless the dominant 2-way-play kicks in.
I’ve given up on “dominant”. Fingers crossed for “somewhat compentent”.
“Huge fan…trade him!” 🤨
Correct.
What’s your problem with that? It’s a hockey team, not a hockey card collection.
I’ve been very consistent in my praise of Bouchard. Doesn’t mean he’s the right guy for big money on this hockey team. If a person can’t see beyond the players they enjoy, they can’t evaluate.
The Oilers have till the summer of 2025 to decide on Bouchard, unless he is the lynchpin of a deal for a better overall right D at the deadline
You cannot pay him in his next contract for the offense if he does not improve significantly on defense.
I think a Ceci upgrade and a healthy Ekholm solve the problem too.
I’m completely here for a Ceci upgrade – but the money has to work long term – and if it doesn’t, you need to get max value.
As someone said elsewhere in the tread – there’s going to be a GM who sees their Al MacInnis in our current #2. (Having looked closer I see it was your post) Fantastic. Trade with him. You’ll get amazing value and something you need plus can fit into the structure.
I’d rather they trade Nurse but we know that isn’t happening.
Can we also acknowledge that, while clearly continuing to be asked to do more than he should (play higher up the lineup that is ideal), Ceci continues to have a very strong bounce-back year as is more like the healthy player from 2021/22 than last year.
Ceci can absolutely be a 4D on a cup winner.
The Oilers have four (4) forwards in the top 67 in scoring and one (1) player tied for 5th among dmen. Which is pretty good considering where the teams is in the standings – regression / puck luck is happening in real time.
Draisaitl: 21 (9th)
Kane / Hyman: 15 (41st)
McDavid: 13 (67th)
Bouchard: 15 (5th among D)
The scoring is coming in fits and starts, but it is coming. A lot of comments appear to focus on the negative play of an Oiler player, but so many fine plays were made last night by Oilers players which tend not to be commented on.
If you are hungering for a comment on a negative play, I give you one Adam Larsson from the Seattle Kraken. He went to the center of the ice to help two other Krakens with Draisaitl and left McDavid, of all people, uncovered. Good players make mistakes!
I, for one, do not care how. Full Al Davis all season long!
That was a brutal play by Adam Larsson….
He may be an exceptional player but to be 1st pairing on an SC-contending team I don’t believe he has the chops for it at this moment. Too much chaos and too inconsistent. His gaps are wide when defending and never seems to be able to create gaps for himself to buy time during puck retrieval. His lost battle with Yamo is a good example of a soft player.
Bouchard is an exceptional offensive player.
He just happens to be a substandard defensive player due to a handful of glaring mistakes, seemingly every game.
I chuckled when I heard Bouchard was “out muscled” by Yamamoto…
Strawman. Bouchard isn’t on the 1st pair.
1) He hasn’t been on the 1st pairing.
2) I’m not sure about the gaps comment – he is one of the better team at defending zone entries.
3) My goodness, we praised Yamo for his willingness to go to hard areas and to win battles against bigger/stronger d-man. Lets not over-state that play and also note that he had zero forward support, etc.
I do wonder how long Gagner can play on the top line. Love Sam but it’s too late I think.
Also wonder how long we look at the Drai-Hyman numbers. Kane put the team on his back in the 3rd but our top 2 centers should not be getting 38% of the shots
Hyman should be with McDavid!
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman is my pick.
I would suggest that Bouchard will play with more confidence when he has more confidence. Well done by Knoblauch sending him out there for OT.
I’ve said below about moving Bouchard away from Ekholm so that Broberg can be on that pairing, but I also subscribe to your thoughts there on confidence. That’s the kicker. I’m not sure Bro and Kulak work well together, but maybe I’m being a tad too quick to say move Bouchard away from Ekholm when that’s possibly his best chance to get more confidence again.
Playing Broberg with Ekholm as much as possible for the next 4 months should provide the Oilers with an improved d-group come playoff time. Broberg only has 87 games total and needs the ‘at bats’ to get better.
Bouchard is still in the early days of his career (227 games played reg + playoffs) and he has his o-zone play down pat. The rest of the regular season should inform us what he is defensively.
Yah, I’m def on the fence for that reason. I favour the idea of Broberg with Ekholm, but also realise we need to do the best we can to get Bouchard playing confidently again.
If my memory is serving me correctly Bouchard and Broberg had some decent numbers together last season playing third pair. If we can get them both up and running maybe that’s a top or 2nd pair of the future.
Evander has matured into a very useful player that everyone felt he would be when he was drafted. I’m happy he is on our team.
He made the right decision not to fight with tanev during the 1st shift of last evening’s game, a very mature decision. He is more valuable as a hockey player than a thug
Agreed. And someone a few days ago started up with Kane being a rotten apple and the problem in the room bringing a ruinous start
I see a leader on the ice. I see a guy that can play and brings what no other Oiler does. Kane is a feared combatant, does not shirk anyone, doesn’t pick his spots, even if he’s too smart to get baited, usually. Every player plays with more confidence when you have a player like that
Sather always made sure he did. Teams will still get stupid against superior talent, but I think it makes running around not the easiest option to slow the Oilers down. There will usually be a price to that
A mature Evander Kane is exactly what the Oilers (and every other team) needs. The team has this now! He is 32 and has played over 900 games as a power forward so he may hit the wall soon.
Loved to see the emotion from him and his teammates towards him when he scored last night.
As long as his boots don’t fail him
Whatever happened to shift the execution and effort level between the 2nd and 3rd period please let’s do that again in similar situations. I get you can’t go hell for leather for a full game, but that 3rd period and OT was fantastic, they completely overwhelmed Seattle. You could see Daccord get tired around 5 mins into the last period and from there on out his movements all became a bit more ragged than the first two period, once that happened the writing was on the wall for Seattle.
Kane and Hyman have been two of the bright lights this season, it was great to see both of them put it to the Kraken in the past week.
Defence wise, I’m with you. I love Vinny and his story, but he’s definitely looking like a 7D right now. Might be time to move Bouchard to be with Kulak (who is also starting to look more like Kulak from last year by the by) and put Broberg with Ekholm. Let Vinny have a game off and get his head back, he looks a tad flustered at the moment.
McDavid is looking more McDavidy. I do hope that Brown can get up to speed and we can see him move up to Gagner’s slot. Gagner bumping down to the 3rd or 4th line would likely help the guys down there, as well as keeping him slightly fresher.
Very satisfying win in the end. Still, Seattle are down in the bottom 3rd for most stat categories in the league so I won’t get carried away yet. A definite building block though. Onwards!
The guy that believed in Vinny the most and brought him all the way along got canned. I’m sure he’s very worried about the future.
I did think about that last night… I’m hoping he can stick around the team as the 7th D.
The guyS…
i understand the rumor has been an oblique injury for McDavid but it seems obvious there’s something wrong with his hand.
It’s not measured in stats, or by the eye of the fan . . . but there is an intangible value to someone who is tough, with a positive infectious attitude. Glenn Sather used to infuse young guys into the lineup every year just for those attributes, recognizing the net contribution to the team.
Hopefully Desharnais can keep growing as a player.
Vinnie is pulling his weight. As fans we always look to get better, and as the other 5 D spots are pretty locked down, Vinnie gets negative attention. The team loves him.
OK, trying for more down votes than HH on a game day. ——————
Pump the brakes!!
Dead cat bounce?
New coach jump?
Analytic regression?
We all knew the Oilers were not going to finish the year with 20 wins. It was impossible. These 2 wins are great, and yes things look better. But Edmonton played poorly to my eye and was a Darnell Nurse diving block on the empty net – away from another Loss.
All goals came from one of the big 5 again. Not only can they NOT piss a drop from the bottom 6 – somebody explain to me why that will change anytime soon? The Holloway injury couldn’t have come at a worse time as I feel he was the only one who might / could actual start to contribute consistently outside of the big 5.
The schedule says:
@ TAMPA
@ FLA
@ CAR
@ WASH
Are they gonna play Skinner the next 67 straight?
Even with the 2 nice wins, the problems that got Edmonton in this spot haven’t changed much.
I don’t see this team getting more than 1 win and 1 tie on the upcoming road trip, which will just drop them even further back.
Personally I don’t care what you think. Opinions and all of that. Obviously you are being somewhat reasonable, moreso than I am lol
Just for shits and giggles I’ll raise you from your 3 points and add 2 points for a 5 point road trip.
Home records for each club:
@ TAMPA 4-2-2
@ FLA 6-1-0
@ CAR 4-1-0
@ WASH 5-3-1
Who were the opponents and how many of them were playoff teams last year?
Tampa – Ws – Van, Canes
FLA – Ws – Canes, Kraken, Leafs
Canes – LA
WASH – Knights, Wild
Not the gauntlet it once was.
Small sample size and there’s no reason why Oilers cannot upset the bookmakers.
4-2-2 is nothing to write home about for a home record.
6-1-0 Chucky is going to have to deal with his nemesis team from his Calgary Flames days and he bolted from them in order to get away from them, in my opinion.
4-1-0 Carolina is traditionally kryptonite for the Oilers, no argument possible here.
5-3-1 Washington is another aging team that Oilers can probably at least take to OT.
Am predicting a 2-1-1 road trip btw.
: p
Prospectophoria!
The spotlight shines on the highest-drafted NA amateur, Beau Akey. He’s missed a game here and there so far this season–perhaps he’s feeling…Akey?
Anywho, his Colts hit the ice @ 5 p.m. Kavanagh time.
Thought the Oil played lazy and UN motivated for much of the game. Played an unreal 10-15 minutes of the 3rd and Skinner was very good in that stretch and made a few great saves ( 1 unreal). Nurse actually saved the game with that block.
Kane was a beast down the stretch and in OT. Hyman with a beautiful pass for that winner . Odd start to OT with the coaches decision on his starting 3, but hey it worked.
Erne needs to go back ASAP ( might get a suspension look), and hopefully Brown draws in . I didn’t like Desharnais game and it is Broberg time. Bouchard had a rough game but was great in OT and down the stretch in the O Zone . In the last 2 games he is carrying the puck a lot further up the ice and even into the other zone. That is what made him a very valuable player in London and he has never been allowed to do that in the Woody era.
Tough road trip and they will need to get a little more aggressive on this road trip
I thought the Oilers looked great last night from the highlights.
Instead of going for the fancy play they sat back and played good old fashioned hockey with Seattle, in the end giving them the old timey Dallas Stars v Oilers treatment.
Right now there are Seattle fans talking about last night’s defeat as if it’s the biggest loss the franchise has experienced.
The highlights must not have shown Brandon Tanev missing about 3 open nets. There was chaos in the d zone for much of the night. Chaos I tell you!
This. We only really started to outplay them overall late in the 3rd.
Also 8 points out of third. As we hit 20 games and regression starts for everyone but the best teams, if they can get it together for the rest of the run might sneak up there
The main thing really is just to make it. There will be no natural home ice advantage. But you can tilt the series, especially winning first games. A little harder road, but less so if KK has the whole group engaged
They are also going to need some good fortune in Brown playing well in the top 6 to push some fellas down a notch. Hamblin and Erne aren’t going to cut it. Also as much as we love him, the Vinny experiment might be coming to a close. If they keep him definitely a decent call up option, I’m not seeing more than that on what is supposed to be a contending team
Oilers have put themselves in this predicament.
It’s therefore up to them to deal with it. The dynasty teams never cared much about where they ended up in the regular season for a reason.
Regression works both ways & has now started for the Oilers. They won the last 2 games despite “losing” the expected goal share, after several games that went the opposite way earlier.
This 4 game road trip is going to take a full effort from the entire team and especially in the forwards doing all their proper assignments in our D zone. It would be nice to sweep all 4, but I don’t see it. 2-2 would be ok , but hopefully 2-1-1 is how they go.
5/8 points would be a great road trip ( Any more points and this team will be cruising)
Oilers and normal
’Oil’ and water
Not sure if it was the open ice but Bouchard looked amazing in OT – feet moving, slinky passing, calm but quick and positionally sound. The Coffey effect already?
I’ll buy that for a dollar!
What explains the 1st and 2nd period….as LT said that is pure chaos.
A wizzard with the puck outside his own end for sure….
Last night felt like a shift. A galvanizing moment for the club. It was far from perfect but remember over the last couple seasons we’ve won a lot of games like that. Sleep walk through most of the game then wake up in the third to turn the offense on.
Would I like to see them play a full 60? Of course, we’ve seen this team absolutely dominate when they’re committed from puck drop on.
But at least last night finally felt like the team that we’ve seen the last couple years, with the ability to turn the offense on seemingly at will.
I think we’re going streaking..
Paging Will Ferrell even though he cheers for the Kings!