Connor McDavid scored twice last night, and now has six goals in 15 games. That’s a 32-goal pace (80 points) and tragically off his normal otherworldly trajectory. However, the captain has four goals in his most recent four games. He has 15 shots in those games. If this team is going to get anywhere this season, McDavid needs to catch fire. I believe he’s got something up physically, could be wrong but he isn’t 40 and there are no other factors in play. If he’s getting better, or finding a workaround, this is going to get interesting in a quick hurry.
THE ATHLETIC
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers making a productive goalie trade is an expensive proposition
- Lowetide: Oilers’ top prospects impacted by struggles and injuries
- DNB: Who is new Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch? These 3 traits define his approach
- Lowetide: Oilers winger Connor Brown and the question of his optimal usage
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers forward Dylan Holloway’s injury highlights concern over offensive potential
- Lowetide: What Oilers management must reckon with in roster construction
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers’ transition of power happening in real-time and the stakes couldn’t be higher
- Lowetide: What if the Edmonton Oilers end up in the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery?
- Lowetide: Can Connor McDavid come from behind to win another Art Ross Trophy?
THE NUMBERS
I’m not sure the Woodcroft line shuffling has been exorcised with the new coach, but it’s interesting to see the combinations. For me, the headliner is McDavid. Scored twice, fast as lightning and more torque on his shot. Could be wrong, but if I’m right that will mean a goal-per-game added to the pile. I wonder if they ever consider recalling Raphael Lavoie and using him as the hammer opposite Leon with the man advantage. Maybe Evan Bouchard could play LW and the club could run Broberg back on blue.
We’re at a point where the power play needs an intervention and I’ve seen better penalty killing at the Ice Capades.
Calvin Pickard had a .920 save percentage at five-on-five, I’m not sure anyone will notice but for me the five-on-five save percentage is the best single stat available for goaltenders. He stopped 23 of 25 including nine HDSC in the metric. I think he played well.
The defense was in the ditch at important moments and that’s part of the ongoing problem for this team. Whether it’s Darnell Nurse trying to do too much or Philip Broberg getting neutralized by a strategically placed stick on the ice, the blue is cause for concern. I would play Mattias Ekholm with Philip Broberg.
Five-on-five is an issue for this team. In October, the goal share in the discipline was 14-18 (44 percent) and that’s bad (No. 23 of 32 teams). In November, the goal share is 15-21 (42 percent) and that ranks No. 27 of 32 teams. Not good.
I don’t think talking about the playoffs at this point is reasonable. That doesn’t mean the Oilers will miss the postseason, but it does mean the club needs to trade for a goaltender and that goaltender needs to be a perfect fit. I like the pro scouts and there are candidates out there.
The Bakersfield Condors play tonight, Raphael Lavoie will no doubt be in the lineup. I’m hopeful Olivier Rodrigue plays, he’s having a nice start interrupted and I don’t think the Oilers organization should deny him the net for Jack Campbell.
We have a special show today noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join us in studio from 1-2 and we’ll talk all things Oilers and read your texts. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
At what point does Nurse’s albatross contract make him expendable for two players, good defensive defensemen who make 5 million a piece?
Campbell with the 2-0 (with ENG) shutout win tonight. 🤷
Edit: small victory?
Low expectations.
When he starts rattling off several in a row, and outright stealing a few, then my ears will perk up.
Here’s hopin’
Dineen with the empty netter (Lavoie with an epic shift the prior shift – stopped on a breakaway but some power forward puck protection behind the opposition net after).
Jack Campbell with the 30 save shutout.
Lol, as I’m typing, Lavoie hits the post on an empty net breakaway (with pressure on his stick though).
Condors hemmed in for what seemed like 2 full minutes, all 5 straight-legged and Bourgault with a diving play to get a stick on a puck with a wide-open net – saved the tying goal with just over 8 to go.
I missed the first two period but here is the only goal of the game so far (16 min to go in the 3rd period) – Lavoie snipe content:
https://twitter.com/bcurlock/status/1727175255297495059
It is nuts that the Oilers don’t give him a legitimate shot.
I just realized the Oilers employ a JJ and a KK in prominent positions. Weird.
It then follows that the Oilers will be hiring Lou Lamoriello and Mike Milbury.
Bloodthirsty in here today, lol.
The only guy who has righted this exact problem with the players successfully twice, was Woody. Tippett managed it when he first came in and TMac did too. But this team is notorious for reverting to its old ways, starting from scratch every damn year rather than learning from the lessons of the year before. This is not the first time we’ve seen this movie. You can count the viewings by the fired coaches.
Now that’s not to say the new director on set can’t get the cast to perform the right script and write his own ending. Gord in heaven, I hope he can. Here’s the way I see the status quo:
First some background. My recollection is the Oilers began to turn it around in past seasons when they committed from the opening whistle to playing 1-0/2-1 hockey. Patient, careful, hockey focused on defensive details and puck management—take what the Gords give you, be prepared when they taketh away. Playing closer together on the ice and more as a five an unit; don’t abandon the D, dear forwards. Be aware of your paths through zones, commit to backtracking. Stop on the puck, the net, the battle.
Re-learn how to win rather than finding ways to lose.
Once they were able to get some tight-played games under their belt they’d establish a baseline they could always return to, rely on, etc. And their season would take off from there. And then the next season they’d have to re-learn that exact same baseline, flummoxing coach after coach.
That’s where Nobby has to get them. Back to baseline. Right now they’re farther off baseline than K in 2049.
I think Woody was getting them there. They were playing well those last five games other than on the scoresheet, just like it happens when losing streaks come to an end, and sure enough culminated in a win his last game. New coach comes in, to no fault of his own, basically has to start the squad from scratch.
The first few games, the team got some confidence off the change and the accompanying clean slate, but that’s a false confidence, easily exposed by adversity. Which didn’t didn’t take long, because the core problem–not having that baseline of playing the right way–hasn’t been fixed.
I don’t think we see any sustainable turnaround in play till we see this team lock down and win a few 1-0, 2-1 games. In KK we trust…
It’s like there’s some kind of organizational memory.
None of the current players, besides Nuge, Draisaitl and Nurse, haven’t been here for the DoD.
None of the coaching staffs, save for Schwartz who joined in 2014.
None of the executives, save Bill Scott (capologist, LOL), that I can think of.
And yet, what you say is true. This team is like metal that has a memory, and goes back to its default shape when subjected to heat.
It’s about time to realign that default shape to something more sustainable.
For a team that talked so big in the off-season about “Cup or bust”, there is so little accountability on this team. No one seems to hold their teammates or players accountable for defensive errors. This needs to change now for this team to go anywhere, I thought that was one of the reasons for the coaching change? There is really no excuse for a team with this roster, as imperfect as it may be, to be this bad. Its comical how bad these guys are. So many guys are making huge individual errors, yet they keep getting thrown back on the ice.
I agree with one thing Gregor said on the radio – the leaders need to show better body language, i.e. show some energy and stop looking so miserable all the time. Whether you like it or not, the rest of the team is going to take their lead from you. If McDavid gets fired up after a goal and shows t hat energy, the team gets going. If he is just grimacing all the time showing no emotion, the team just continues to sag. It may not be fair to put that on the leaders, but that’s the way humans and teams are.
That is what leaders are supposed
to do. Occasional bad day acceptable of course..
If I could turn the clock back to the McDavid draft I would stick Lowe+MacT back together instead of the Chiarelli through Holland train wreck.
Lowe+MacT would have probably won at least 2 cups by now.
I’m going to have this quote of yours cross-stitched and frame on my wall.
I’ll never forget the day you pined for KL and CMac at the helm.
Hell hath frozen over…
What is weird for me is that despite the dreadful start they haven’t really tried anything radical wrt the lineup outside of sending down Campbell. It’s the same lines with small tweaks and when they’ve tried something a little different they’ve quickly gone back to the usual iterations. Same pairings pretty much the whole way.
For a team with such a disappointing start there’s been very little rattling of the cage.
Not saying there are a lot of great options down the lineup or in the AHL to give a push but sometimes you just have to mix things up for the sake of mixing things up just to get a reaction.
Yes nothing has changed. Which begs the question what was the point of changing the coach? I see no discernible difference between KK and Woody, except that KK pressers are devoid of any energy in comparison to the talkative Woodcroft.
“I believe he’s got something up physically, could be wrong but he isn’t 40 and there are no other factors in play.”
Sounds like our host has either forgotten about the trials and tribulations of planning a wedding, or was straight-up not asked for his opinion.
This is how rumours start, no?
Easy there big fella, a sensitive topic
Jack Campbell starts in net for the Bakersfield Condors tonight.
Was there any doubt?
My goodness.
Indefensible. This organization makes so many bad decisions. I’m not convinced anything has changed with Jeff Jackson at the helm, at least so far.
I guess I view it a bit differently. The Oilers have a $20M investment they are trying to salvage.
Sunk Cost.
Sunk cost fallacy. The stock market doesn’t care what price you paid for the stock. Anchoring bias. Opportunity cost. The milk is spilt. Stop digging.
Lol, use all the fancy terms you want to try to sound smarter than the rest of us but the fact remains the Oilers are on the hook for $20M over the next 4 tears in a salary cap world.
Fire Holland officially already. I’m calling, Mr. Jackson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYxAiK6VnXw
Look how young Connor looks in LT’s lead in pic (above).
That tells us a lot. It’s Year 9 for McD and the team is …… well …. unpolished? sputtering? flawed?
The team is a number of things, but it does not look like a serious contender.
Who do you blame,
A. Chiarelli
B. Holland
C. Katz
D. All 3 of them
E. None of them
F. 2 of them A&B
G others eg. Bobby Nics, Jackson, Swartz, Tippet, flathead, Woodman.
I think most of the blame has to fall on Chiarelli. The organization is still trying to recover from the Reinhart trade and Lucic signing.
Add Hollands Campbell signing and you create the mess we are currently in.
If you follow the progression, maybe the next Oilers GM doesn’t make any big mistakes. 😎
All of them, and others. Including, the media who refused to be critical to protect their access.
Caveat: Chiarelli may have been forced on Katz, but he should have countered with a proper open process to find a GM. He also may have hired McLellan before hiring Chiarelli.
Katz has a flawed hiring and oversight process when it comes to hockey. It may work in other parts of his empire, but his process is flawed for sports management.
Katz also failed to understand how to manage the cap, and the value of cap space.
It was a case of “be careful what you wish for”. The cap ultimately was implemented to insure the survival of small markets. But Katz’s permissiveness in allowing reckless spending by his GM’s has kneecapped the on ice product.
I blame the slow down in cap inflation that prevented the Oilers in gaining the cap space needed post McDavid and Drai signing to build around them.
i was reading about the Blue Jackets, they have a cheap owner. the oilers have a stupid owner
Give your head a shake
Draft cohorts are funny things. As much as the 1st round gave us, it also asked for a toll
Connor makes it all worth while for me. Still, while I/we have had reservations about the Oilers drafting, some years just don’t have what others do
Laine being a HS made me think of this again. Of the 2016 draft top 5 picks – usually the ones likely to be great or at least be impactful players – there was only Matthews. Laine, PLD, Puljujarvi, Juolevi, meh
Nuge’s cohort also not overwhelming. Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, R Strome. Some good players, no real stars either. Bro’s draft had Hughes and Seider (who was 6th), a couple of one way small scorers later on, but also looks a bit thin, it could still change but we’re nearing 5 years out
Sometimes you have to find the gems later in the first or later rounds, just not a lot there for team changing players
Since Bruce mused about alternative universes, coulda shoulda woulda…
RE: 2016 draft – Oilers draft Tkachuk (who would go #2 or #1 in a redraft instead of #6) instead of JP… we’re renaming Jasper Ave ‘Stanley’s Way’
While we’re at it, how about a total redo of 2015 other than Connor of course. So many stars picked that could have been Oilers instead of Griffin the bust.
Hindsight!
I have always wondered what would have happened with a different choice at the 2010 draft. What if the answer to Taylor vs Tyler was….Tyler?
If we draft the RHC to play behind Horcoff, we likely would have taken winger Landeskog over the centre Nuge. Would Sequin/Landeskog been better to build on than Hall/Nuge? I think more talent in our duo, but the other duo has 2 Stanley Cups…
Of course any alteration of history would likely wipe out the McGolden Ticket…
Crappy goaltending led to d trying to do too much which led to complete collapse of our D. This isn’t going to solve itself quickly
Except Evan Bouchard started the year like this ……
People have been pounding on our D since mid October to simplify things and play solid D.
Just focus on playing Simple, solid, D. ( October message)
We are now into late November.
Evan Bouchard:
Can’t Stop. Won’t Stop.
Where are Kulak and Deharnais in this goals against bashing – they get scored upon at higher rates than Bouchard in the last 10 games while playing much softer competition.
Fair.
There is a certain level of egregiousness or near utter indifference to
Bouchard effort.
Your point is valid and Explains why we are barely keeping ahead of the Sharks here.
US Thanksgiving in 27 hours.
I now have an irrational dislike of Connor Brown as a hockey player.
Sucking will do that.
I think he’ll come around to what he is, Hyman lite essentially, but he’s not going to score 20 goals this year methinks. If they make playoffs he could be a good help
Well, he and Bouchard are the most popular guys in the NHL right now…..everyone wants to play against them.
Time to limit Bouch 5×5 and Dzone starts. At best, he is a 1 trick pony and a good one in the Ozone. Time we treat him as so. I’m not saying never start him in the Dzone. Just limit it and try and get favorable matches, against other team’s bottom 6.
Agreed. No partner is going to save him from his own mental and foot-speed deficient mistakes, this year or maybe even next. If it weren’t for his shot and ever so often amazing up-ice passing, it’s hard to say any NHL team would want him in their line-up. He makes mistakes that guys get cut from training camp for.
I agree. Draft pedigree gives him a longer leash. Sooner or later he needs to be able to swim or sink. He is sinking and good teams know this. They expose him by dumping the puck into his corner and making him chase. He doesn’t win enough foot races as it is.
Absolutely, the coach needs to maximize his strengths and cover his weaknesses.
You mean – hold him accountable for his comedic defending?
Not in Edmonton.
Some in here have been asking for him to be held accountable from game 3.
No dice.
That would be a good start. But the coaches need to put him into a situation to succeed. Playing him more 5×5 and Dzone starts against opposition top 6 is not the answer. His average skating skills don’t help him.
I think the change in defensive systems is to blame and that is on Woodcroft. He did not implement the system properly and now we’ve got a team that visibly is hesitating in the defensive zone. He is a good coach but this is a fireable offence in my opinion.
This team is at its best when it’s playing with instinct not overthinking their game. I liked what Knoblauch said about being up 2-0 forces the other team to open it up and that you have to take advantage of that game state. When to push, when to hold. The Oilers are terrible at this.
If Knoblauch can improve this awareness of game state and how to play, I still think this team can turn it around. But they need to figure it out now, rescue this roadie and win the last couple of games.
I agree and feel bad for Woody but two years in a row he brought the team out of training camp unprepared.
Whenever I watch the games and I see how bad our defencemen can be…Bouchard, Nurse, Ceci mostly…I pine for the return of Tyson Barrie and how good he was on the powerplay, his accurate passes and even his defence.
Barrie was under-appreciated by the majority fans; Bouchard is significantly over-rated by those same fans, who are starting to understand that there was a very good reason why the Oilers wanted him to learn how to play defence in the AHL first. Unfortunately, his development was not handled properly by Woodcroft at either the AHL or NHL level, so here we are. For as good as he is in generating offence, he gives it all back and then some on defense.
Barrie was not well liked on this forum with many people commenting on his McDavid PP points and poor defense.
“I’ve seen better penalty killing in ice capades.” Too funny but so true!
Still think Oilers need to give Pickard more games to see if he is the solution. I’m wanting to save trade options for a stud RD. The RD is a tire fire right now.
If Broberg is to play with Ekholm put Ekholm on the right side and let the young one play to his strength please.
This doesn’t solve the problem on right D. Broberg is the only potential inhouse solution at right D. If he fails, it is four assets out trading for one.
Ekholm is too old and slow to play the right side anymore.
Yup. If you look again at last season, Ekholm was getting caved on the right side. Keep him where he does good.
There are always potential bright sides to look at.
If the Oilers continue to flounder and don’t go on a couple of heaters, with consistent good hockey in between, and are not really “in the conversation”, well, they could get some OK futures back for the likes of Foegele (he will have value as a pending UFA) and Janmark (should be able to get a depth pick at least for him) and Brown (he’s so damn cheap that if he finds his game even a little will bring back an asset).
Add those assets to a high draft pick and that’s a mini re-tool on the fly.
Maybe they move on from a Kulak and or Ceci – both have some term left so not the typical deadline deals.
If they do move Foegele mid-season, that should be room to fit in most of Brown’s bonus and maybe all of it depending on if they move a Ceci or Kulak.
Good Times!
Re-tool? Boring.
It’s November 21st. Trade deadline isn’t for another 3 months.
No reason this team can’t win like 12 out of 15 and be right in the thick of it with Stl and Anaheim.
Trade the 1st round pick while it has a perceived high value for a veteran RD like Ryan Pulock. Demonstrate to the team that they’re worth investing in.
there are at least 3 reasons they cant go 80% (12/15) goaltenders, nurse, bouchard, brown,…
Still early…
Short a big run over the next 2 months this is what we face. With some shrewd assessments, it could set the team up to be competitive next season.
The Oilers are a lottery team – only a fool would trade this year’s first round pick.
So what you’re signalling is Holland is going to trade our pick for a back-up goalie.
Is there an individual or group of individuals employed by the Oilers that is/are capable of making these ‘shrewd assessments’ that you speak of ?
It’s not Holland, that’s for sure. That’s why he should be turfed this week before he does something stupid.
Jeff Jackson doesn’t get to where he is without having an idea of what’s he’s trying to build and how to implement it. Would think that he’s in the process of accelerating his timeline and it’s only a matter of time before Holland is replaced.
If this team is going to get anywhere this season,
it is going to have to play some team defense.
Let McDavid be just a guy. It is not on him.
Forget trading for a goaltender. No goalie on this earth can cover for the team defense mistakes.
Thank you.
Sanity has now returned to the site.
Oilers’ biggest need is a reliable backup goalie. Stu Skinner is probably fine as a starter, but not playing 9/10 games.
Jaro Halak may be 38, but in 17 (!) seasons he has been below .900 Sv% exactly once (.899 in 16 games in the post-lockout 2013 season) & above 3.00 GAA exactly once (3.19 in 54 GP in 2017-18, while shelled with 35 shots per game [.908]). His career Sv% is .915, including .905, .903, .903 the last 3 years With 3 different teams, averaging 20 GP/season.
He is available at zero acquisition cost and likely near or at league minimum. Experienced, stable, very used to the backup role. What’s not to like?
Why was he released?
There is nothing to lose with him but this move would smack of a desperation very Chiarelli-esque.
Three reasons to sign Halak:
1) All the reasons Bruce just stated
2) Depth in the event of injury. If Pickard or Skinner get injured your season is doomed. It’s like insurance on the season for $1M or less.
3) Improves the team’s negotiating position with regards to acquiring a more proven goaltender. Oilers can’t make a good trade negotiating from a position of extreme weakness.
It is not desperate, it is tactical.
I was against this yesterday, but watching Pickard’s game last night and I changed my mind. Pickard is what he is. A below average NHL backup, an average to above average AHL starter.
He is a bit better than Campbell, but hes not the answer, and IU highly doubt he can become the answer. Halak is worth a flyer.
Halak might not be the answer and it would be a desperation move…. but aren’t we desperate?
I understand but I’m not sure how a 38 year old moves the needle that much to give the Oilers a stronger negotiating position. We’re talking about Ken Holland here, lol. He might very well give him a 4 x 4 million deal if he goes on a heater, lol.
The season is already doomed.
Joe Camel says it was Halak’s decision:
https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/carolina-hurricanes/news/jaroslav-halak-released-from-pto-with-carolina-hurricanes
Thx for the clarification.
Because Carolina’s goalies got healthy, is my understanding.
no, hes not trading for spooner. hes a ufa
I’m not sure Dom Hasek in his prime would help given the glaring mistakes this team keeps making. I do think Goalie is an issue, but holy smokes these are 10-alarm chances they keep giving up.
You and David quoted some stats related to odd-man rushes and inner slot shots…are they dramatically worse this year in those categories? Or are they just unable to outscore their mistakes this year?
I agree. they need to do something and Halak should be better than most options at zero acquisition cost
This is what the manager needs to learn. How to see free and cheap help, Vegas played a waiver claim on a cup team. Sometimes better is good enough if not perfect
With this move Rodrigue will never get any playing time.
Well, I don’t like the fact Jaro has been watching Oiler D zone highlights on ESPN.
Might be a tough sell for him to throw himself in the Volcano.
There’s pretty much zero chance a guy in his position doesn’t take a guaranteed NHL job.
I think I read that Halak’s family is in Boston. Would he come live in Edmonton and leave his family for the next 6 months?
To channel my inner LT, I’ll hail a great Canadian Lyric….”She ain’t pretty she just looks that way…”
Is this the same team as last year, just with a much worse PP? Toss in trying to adjust to a new defensive system, badluck injuries, and the overall lack of confidence the losses have caused?
Imagine if the PP was cooking at 35% or whatever it was last year? They win both the last 2 games and a few more probably, so they’d be closer to a .500 club, not great, but treading water while trying to get their feet under them….
I’m curious..how does the number of odd-man rushes and inner slot shot metrics that are so glaringly awful this year compare to last year? Is it similar? I feel like they’ve never been great defensively but 97/29 have carried them…but we’re all out the good lipstick for this pig at the moment, and she ain’t pretty on any level.
It’s a miracle that Money Puck has the oilers as a coin flip to make the playoffs with a 5-11-1 record. Don over at the athletic is in similar territory.
Looking at the standings, there is still a path back to relevance and the teams ahead are sputtering along too.
I cannot see this team failing to make the playoffs. Not only they still play very good hockey as happened last night(sans the final score lol), but they have markedly improved over their more putrid start to the season(sans radically improved results to date).
Unless they really are nothing more than a bunch of gutless pukes…
We only have to climb over Phoenix and Anaheim (and a myriad of pathetic teams just below them). It is not outside of the realm of possibility.
It’s not like the Oil are constantly getting clubbed 6-2. They’re leading in games and looking good doing it, but a combination of poor goaltending, poor puck luck, poor powerplay, defensive gaffes have this team 7-8 points lower than they should be. They’re playing decent hockey and paying severely for their mistakes.
St. Louis and Calgary may have something to say about this.
I think that Connor Brown backcheck slides in behind Nurses idiotic pinch in game 2 as the second dumbest play of the year. We’ve had bad technical plays like Bouch booting it in front of his own net off the rim. We’ve had countless lazy plays like Bouchard failed backcheck on Hoglander.
But for sheer dumbness how does Brown read that backcheck the way he did? He’s 6 feet ahead of the guy without the puck and 10 feet behind the guy with the puck and he points to the guy with the puck as “his man”?
Ekholm was like…dude you can’t be serious and so jumps to the puck carrier. He and Brown both realize that they’ve gone to the same guy at the same time and so both jump back to the open guy at the same time. Then it’s total chaos and the puck is in the net.
Where the heck are they finding these guys?
In case you haven’t been paying attention Oilers have got a GM who thinks the NHL trading rule is only to trade with the Detroit Red Wings.
I was adamant last night that goal was primarily on Connor Brown.
Your not wrong – except for one critical point.
He ( Brown) is covering for a ZERO reward – DUMB pinch – by guess who?
Evan Bouchard.
Can’t Stop. Won’t stop.
The pinch wasn’t dumb and it didn’t cause the issue.
He stepped up, with forward support and did get his man. Bouch’s defensive zone defense on the play was, well, not great but the step-up was fine.
Should we think about dealing Warren Foegele at the deadline?
Perhaps, a bit too early to start to consider now.
At some point, possibly very soon, we need to turn our attention to next year.
It may be critical to get picks/ prospects back here for some pieces that have value.
Of course, if they are in the position as a seller – which they very well might be.
Foegele, Janmark, Brown, etc.
Moving Foegele would go a long way to reducing the cap overage penalty on Brown’s bonuses for next season.
August 3rd the Oilers hired Jeff Jackson. All those on the outside wondered how and why this happened.
Jeff may be excellent, we don’t know. But the optics of his hire were terrible and I believe everything that has come since is just the coaches / players way of stating how uncomfortable they are emotionally.
Whether it is true or not, the hiring of Jackson told every Oilers coach and player OPTICALLY that #97 was pulling the high level strings. And the subsequent moves since then have only added to those OPTICS.
When the inmates run the asylum, it never works out well, no matter how good one of the inmates is (#97).
#ThisIsUs
I tend to agree with this.
I don’t think there was anyone, not any “hockey expert” or pundit, or our gracious host, or any of us who happen to read this blog or follow this team who would have seen the club in its present situation before the season started.
There is a fragility to this team’s confidence and I’m not sure if it’s because of its roster construction or the internal machinations of its personnel. Either way, there is something smelly in the state of Denmark.
From such a high in the last two years to…..this. Ugh.
What if 97 didn’t get involved and the organization is hiring 97’s people because they are insecure about his willingness to stay?
That’s the alternative here, and I’d much rather 97 being involved than that.
If MacDavid sticks around for another 3-4 years that’s going to be worth everything to Katz and the Oilers including us fans.
I don’t even think I”m exaggerating when I say that the reaction to the Jackson hiring at the time, from everything I read and listened to was 99% positive.
It was the most universally commended move I can recall – player, management or coaching related.
I actually believe them 100% when they say the Jackson hire was brought up to McDavid well in to the process – not initiated at all by McDavid.
Bouchard at $3 mill is great, even as a PP specialist and 3 RD. We need an upgrade to play with Ekholm,. Broberg and Kulak are interchangeable to me, so if you need to save money then Kulak can go in a deal.
Ekholm – ??
Nurse – Ceci
Broberg – Bouchard
Desharnais
That works if we can find a better, bigger two way/Stay at home type to play with Ekholm . No idea who, but getting that piece helps a ton (maybe as much a s a goalie).
And I’m fine with moving McLeod if it leads to an upgrade at D.
What could Kulak and McLeod get you? If you added a prospect?
Just read in another blog an interesting idea of trying to get Romanov out of the Island . Always liked his game in Montreal. Haven’t watched a lot of him in NY, but I don’t think it sounds like he is being used to his strengths and assets in NY. I do remember in Montreal he played a good D game, Could skate and had a hard shot. He was a big hitter and rough.
He is a Left hander that can play both sides .
hows Nemo playing? he could be a LD option! they need a number 1 RHD that defends
Niemo is not going to help at the NHL level.
As usual, he’s been hurt and then back and then hurt again.
Agree with most of this. They’re short a 1RD for a real cup run. That Nurse contract is an absolute anchor.
I wouldn’t move on from McLeod. Like many others on the roster, he’s off his game and you need to resist the temptation to sell-low on guys. He was very recently an excellent emerging 3C who’s been great in the playoffs.
The roster is okay. Could use some bolstering here and there.
The roster is not playing okay.
Whoever can fix these guys, give them some strategy, new tactics, regain confidence. That person would be a genius.
Yeah, I figured we’d get the usual 8-10 games from the dead coach bounce and I think it’s pretty telling the same problems are happening.
Somewhere Woodcroft is doing the old Paul Newman head nod gif
The roster works well when 2 players at 20 million are both Hart/Art Ross level value deals.
Not so much when 97 is trending worse than Hyman’s 22-23.
If I had to list those players playing well. or up to expectations I would suggest:
Holloway was
Ryan
Foegele
Kane has been ok
Desharnais – one might argue – but his expectations were not high and I think he met them.
anyone else?
Tim Peel, Spec, and now Seravalli all having Twitter beef is the nonsense that is Edmonton media. None of us care. Spec asks dumb questions all the time. Old men yelling at clouds.
It’s shocking that anyone in the media more than two minutes can be so thinned skinned. The world is changing though and critics now have a much bigger platform. Adjusting to the new realities can be challenging.
More on Tim Peel the not so nice guy from the Athletic.
https://theathletic.com/4220681/2023/02/17/tim-peel-nhl-referee-accused/
That was from the Seravalli tweet. I think they all suck.
Anyone interested in a fairly-heavily used Jaro Halak? Just released by the Canes.
He wouldn’t come in and win a Vezina, but might help stabilize. And the acquisition cost is right.
Also, how did I not know that Mike Smith was top-10 in GSAE/60 both of his last two years here? Couple of killer old-guy years.
We have nothing to lose in offering him a PTO.
I know the Canes brought him in on a PTO but, really, how does one asses if he can play in the NHL still with a few practices?
Exhibition games aren’t even a good indicator.
Can he stop odd man rushes against?
Is it the goalie or the D that’s the issue?
I’m of a mind that the second coming of Patrick Roy would have issues with this team’s D zone deployment and executions.
I and quite a few others – outside Edmonton- believe you could have 2 goalies in our net and it would not stop some of the comedic coverage being played by us.
Last nights 4th goal against quite the clip.
Imagine if Smith had been able to play out the last year of his contract. 1 year at $2.2 while Skinner had a chance to show his potential as a future #1. Instead, a 5x $5 millstone.
Alternate universes, man. Almost all of them are happier places than this one.
As I guess the fanbase has decided to trade Bouchard, that gives us zero impact draft picks since McDavid (let’s not even talk about the Reinhart trade which makes it even worse).
The clearest sign of a stable and professional organization to me is when they can elevate lower round draft picks or projects from other teams into valuable players.
The Oilers can’t even get their top draft picks into valuable hockey players, let alone the lower draft picks.
So yeah, I didn’t want Holland in the first place, so I’m not hugely surprised at how this turned out, but part of the cap problems we have is that Holland has had to spend money on bringing players in.
Not having guys on their ELCs help us has been a killer.
I don’t know where the blame lies, but Jackson needs to figure that part out.
Don’t trade him, but sit him on the line and let him play pp only for a few games
There are several steps between giving Bouchard all the privileged ice time and trading his lazy on defense ass out of town.
It is not binary. The Oilers still have all of next season to fix what ails Bouchard (barring an ofter for him too good too refuse.)
Can’t help but notice Connor and Leon getting killed 4 on 4. Not sure what the fancy stats are on this but visually it doesn’t look good.
Last night the 4v4 GA came with Kane & Nuge on the ice. Previously on the same 4v4 McDavid got a breakaway, got hauled down & scored on the subsequent penalty shot (technically a separate game state).
For sure 97+29 got burned by Tampa’s top guys on Saturday. But the overall sample is pretty darn small to this point.
Yes the PP needs an overhaul, no Ekholm does not need more ice time. He needs to be backed off one game state not amped up in all of them.
Unit 1 – McD, Hyman, Brown, Bouchard, Foegele
Unit 2 – Drai, Kane, Nuge, Nurse, Ryan.
McLeod could be spotted on either unit but frankly I’m tired of watching him piss away offensive zone time. Give Nurse a unit to get the offensive urges out so he plays calmer at 5v5. You might want/need to throw Nuge on the McD unit in which case Brown goes down to the other unit.
Right now McLeon are zeroing on each other and they aren’t moving. Way too stationary. This pulls them apart so they can run their own units. It gets everyone involved in offensive sorties and the overall mandate should be “shoot the damn puck!”
No to McLeod. Try and move him
Last year, the Oilers were the highest scoring team but needed to shore up the defense.
The same strengths/needs exist.
Obviously coaching isn’t the issue.
Trade Bouchard and McLeod.
Good gord. Stop trading one of the most impactful offensive D in the league. Look at his defensive focus and deployment. Bury him 5v5 if you must. But trading him? Man.
You’re the same people who stole Tom Poti’s epipen.
Key word being “offensive D”
In my view of the team, that’s not what the team needs to stabilize the goal scoring vs goals against.
This is the fist time I’ve soured on Bouchard, everyone has their own threshold and opinion.
Well, if you want to stabilize the goals against, you should be talking about moving Kulak out – his GA/60 are marginally better than Bouch’s and he’s playing much easier comp.
That’s actual goal rates against – actual.
As far as expected goal rates again, which should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt, in particular with NST data, Bouch is second lowest (best).
Goalie played fine, 97 scored twice. Florida’s good at being rats and they’re a top team in the league.
Losing to them in the context of a normal Oiler season would not be cause for consternation. It isn’t a normal season. This road trip could get messy.
It is messy already .
Agreed. Florida looked pretty good-especially missing their 1C.
This team just isn’t very good right now.
D issues
Goalie issues
Special team issues
Last night toughness issues , they kind of bullied us a bit.
Just too many issues to fix this year.
Oilers bullied other teams last year, especially after the deadline. But Kostin & Bjugstad, both acquired during the season to add size & toughness, were let go because EDM couldn’t afford to keep them. I think it shows.
Lavoie is available. But could not get warmed up or angry playing 6 minutes a game. Arguably he would be better than Kostin, because Lavoie has better defensive awareness.
The Oilers could run four lines. McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and McLeod. Play a system and solid team defense. Would allow for McDavid and Draisaitl play more physical and less fancy.
Kane McDavid Hyman
Holloway Draisaitl Lavoie
Janmark Nugent-Hopkins Brown
Foegele McLeod Ryan
Despite his two professional fights (beat downs), as much as you want to insist he can play the role, that is simply not his game.
He does not play angry.
One would have thought he’d take his NHL opportunity and get some real bangs in on the forecheck even though its not really his game but he didn’t – no emotion from hit at all, that I saw.
There are bigger defensemen and forwards in the NHL who will bang on Lavoie more than in the AHL. I think he would bang back. But a coach has to show some belief in the player to get the most out of the player. At six minutes, Lavoie is going out there mostly trying not to make a mistake. That deployment is the coach telling the player, I don’t want anything to happen while you are on the ice.
I don’t disagree with most of this post (but for the first sentence) but that’s neither here nor there – the player you describe is not the player that Lavoie is – its one he could/should be but its not one he has been as a professional hockey player for four years.
You want the Oilers to employ a system where McDavid and Drai play a more physical game? I’m struggling to think of a coach who would try to make the world’s best player play a physical game.
This was a complaint of mine last season. It was unnecessary, Woody called it sowing seeds, and I think wrong for the organization and roster. The Oilers always had ruffians, and do still again, but going looking for it seems to lead to problems, like this season – now with less beef and teams seem to have remembered
That is what less skilled teams do. Finish checks and be willing to give what you get no qualms, but play hockey first
The Bakersfield Condors play tonight, Raphael Lavoie will no doubt be in the lineup. I’m hopeful Olivier Rodrigue plays, he’s having a nice start interrupted and I don’t think the Oilers organization should deny him the net for Jack Campbell.
Olivier Rodrigues started to pop in the 2nd half of last season and I opined that he should get at least half the starts. He was the clear 1B/back-up to Pickard.
I opined in the off-season that Olivier Rodrigue should get at least half the starts this season. He was exceptional in 2 games before the goalie change, one goal against in each and 30 plus saves in each. He started 2 games to Rodrigue’s 4.
I opined that Olivier Rodrigue should get the bulk of the starts after the goalie change. Jack Campbell started 3 in a row before Rodrigue got a start in the 2nd half of a back to back and he was VERY good in that game and let in 3 in 40 plus starts.
I have ZERO confidence that Rodrigue will get the start tonight fully rested.
Rodrigue could be part of the future. We need to see it. Campbell is not. It’s not complicated.
That’s a lot of opining!
Speaking of pine, I’m with you Campbell needs a bit of time sitting on the bench with Rodrigue ran as the 1A so he can continue his development.
That’s brilliant , Bouchard on the wing.
I like it. But have to change his number 2, that is a defenseman number.
It should be changed even of he stays back
Zingggg
Maurice’s comments are interesting to me:
“You can win on any given night no matter how many injuries you have, but you just can’t win long-term with key guys out,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said. “But the pro scouts have done a good job of finding players that fit the style of hockey we play and we brought in some key players that helped us survive.”
The second part hurts, we are not at that point for me. I think Brown was the right type of player for certain needs, but it was risky and he has started slowly as Holland said he might
Kevin Stenlund, 27 y.o. right shot centre, 6’5, 215, signed Jul 01 for 1 year at $1.0 million.
18 GP, 5-2-7, +1, 55% faceoffs, 12:49 TOI / GP inc. 1:56 of that shorthanded. I’d call him Nick Bjugstad light, except he’s 6 ln=bs heavier! At half the price, & half the term.
Last night: 1-2-3, +2 including the GWG & an assist on the ENG (= trusted).
Score another one for Bill Zito.
Must have been a nice evening for him spanking us
For a second there last night I though Connor and Leon broke some curse by embodying each other’s spirits for that goal. Alas. I had to write this decision tree out to try and climb out of my own despair for this club. I was pretty positive back when even LT was less optimistic than he is now, seemingly, like when they were 1-5-1. But now I’m pessimistic so hopefully I just don’t know how to pick em.
If I am Jackson here’s what I do. Problem is, I don’t know what the problem is. Options:
A) If spirits are hopeful and players are healthy; AKA “SAVE THE PDO”
1) Despite, fire Holland – there needs to be a clear hierarchy. You can’t bring back Woody but you better make sure KK has the room.
2) Preach regression until it takes. For Christ’s sake, it has to!
3) This is a second-half team. Always has been!
4) Sit Bouchard down for a talk about how hard it is to pick fruit for $3/hr. That’s pain, pal.
5) Ideally Skinner and Pickard show themselves well and this gets turned around. You sneak into the playoffs, but do so on a high note and make a run. Buy out Campbell in the offseason.
“IDEAL FACTOR”, GIVEN WHERE WERE AT: 10/10 (Chances: 25%?)
B) If its frustration far and wide, but injuries aren’t really a factor; AKA “SAVE THE SEASON”
1) Fire Holland on merit, and make sure KK has the room.
2) Trade Bouchard+ for a better D-Dman and a 3C. Perhaps 29 & 97 loosen up when they know 3 GA/GM aren’t already banked. The goals for will come and we can’t run Elizabeth Manley on defense anymore.
3) Ideally Skinner and Pickard show themselves well and this gets turned around. You sneak into the playoffs, but do so on a high note and make a run. Your PP regresses to where it was before Bouchard which anyway was already the best. People lambaste you for wasting the development of Bouchard and he scores 80pts elsewhere but you’ve righted the ship for a pivotal season and you retain 97 and 29 for new contracts.
“IDEAL FACTOR”, GIVEN WHERE WERE AT: 06/10 (Chances: 25%?)
C) If its injuries far and wide, but morale is high, AKA “SAVE THE PROJECT”
1) Fire Holland – there needs to be a clear hierarchy.
2) Shut down McDavid
3) Don’t tank. Never tank. Losers tank. That’s an infestation that already took root in this organization last decade. Some of you weirdos out there still advocate for this. Run the youth, maybe they don’t get you into the playoffs but they can’t develop on a loser team. (Not a losing team, a loser team.)
4) You don’t need to trade 29 because he sees the forest for the trees or whatever.
5) Buy out Campbell in the offseason and consider this a lost year, but they head into 2024 mature and hungry. Ideally Skinner and Pickard show themselves well enough to hold on next year too. You retain 97 and 29 for new contracts.
“IDEAL FACTOR”, GIVEN WHERE WERE AT: 06/10 (Chances: 25%?)
D) If its straight up broken but McDavid still wants it in Oiler blue whatever the cost; AKA “SAVE MCDAVID”
1) Fire Holland
2) Trade Bouchard, Leon and next years’ 1 (or more?) for a haul and revamp on the fly. You can turn this into a deep team that is fast and still has McDavid. They would contend.
3) Beg for Chelios is a Dinosaur’s forgiveness. He loved Leon as an Oiler.
“IDEAL FACTOR”, GIVEN WHERE WERE AT: 05/10 (Chances: 12.5%?)
E) If its straight up broken and McDavid wants to work it out only it if Leon stays on his wing: AKA “MADNESS”
1) Fire Holland, and a lot of other people because they will need a clean slate.
2) Explain to 97 how that is impossible and trade him and Leon for a massive earth-shattering haul, they start all over again with a team that has some teeth. Completely unfair to all involved but how do you get out from under this? You don’t. In this case, it might be a way of remaining a competitive team for another 10 years. Shit – sounds nice actually.
3) Beg for the fanbase’s forgiveness. The fans will stick around if the wins are there. But if this comes to pass we better be looking at some impact, impact, impact outcomes. Not sure you “win” that trade but this team is not winning otherwise.
“IDEAL FACTOR”, GIVEN WHERE WERE AT: 02/10 (Chances: 12.5%?)
The “idealness” factor drops off pretty quick. Not much time remaining to save the PDO.
Fun and distressing read
All I can offer.
That’s a pretty good offering
I can’t imagine what kind of discussions like this are flying around OEG and red wine summits these days
loved the picking fruit for $3 an hour AND the Elizabeth Manley reference….
We need a little humour people…..very little else available.
They started out strong again, like they did against Tampa.
It’s getting so the best thing to do is to avoid the games.
How else can you keep hope lol
With the team struggling on the powerplay, McDavid not back to tip-top,. and Bouchard having issues at the line, I’d like to see the following changes to the PP setup:
Move Bouchard to the left circle spot
Get Ekholm and his massive shot at the top middle spot
Have McDavid make more of the down low plays and make some things happen behind the net for a while
Won’t happen, but that’s what I’d like to see.
They have needed a RS hammer on the left in forever. Nuge rarely shoots well, Bouch can also pass well
It would make it very hard to key on one side which they can now as the entire PP is slanting toward Leon
Then either have Kane in front, or Nuge and Connor moving around and creating PK structure breakdowns
I don’t see Ekholm being a positve PP player, and don’t really love him on PP2.
This PP needs to work player movement back in (in my opinion) – they are stationary and the puck flowing through a stationary Drai is too slow.
I thought Pickard showed pretty well last night. I’m still all for improving the goalies, however, for now I’d be content to roll Skinner/Pickard for a few weeks to see if that gets it done.
I’d be more in favour of moving out someone like Kulak and getting in a better right shot option. That way Broberg is on the left side and can be left to consistently play 13-14 mins a night. Whoever is the new right shot guy can either run with Bro, or swap places with Bouchard. Again, I know we’ve talked about this at great length here, Broberg-Bouchard had some decent numbers together last year before the Ekholm trade. It could be the thing to get Bouch back up and running too.
I’m not saying go out and get a stud top pair RD (cap is the issue), but moving Kulak out for a steady 4/5 option would be my play.
Forwards I think it’s coming. McDavid is getting healthier, the Kane-Drai-Hyman line looks good, Foegele-McLeod-Ryan have been decent (66 xGF share is not to be sniffed at, even if the shot share was 33%). Getting a fully functional 4th line is the goal eventually. Solidifying the defence is still the first thing I’d do.
Connor wasn’t looking too healthy after goofball took his skate out and boards hard
In theory, Kulak *is* the steady 4/5 option.
I just wonder how you trade a guy whose boxcars read 17 GP, 1-1-2, 4 PiM, -7 with the latter fully achieved at 5v5 (6-13), who is getting paid $2.75 million for this & 2 more seasons. Not a whole lot of trade value there.
Totally fair point Bruce. I’m clutching at straws me thinks. Kulak could roll back into form couldn’t he? Missing camp has had an impact on his play year over year.
Or, we’d need to lean heavily on his performances over the last few years when making a deal. The other issue is we’re looking for a right shot defender, that’s always going to cost a touch more.
Kulak started slow last season as well and then came on, in particular in the playoffs.
Similar to Bouchard who, away from the puck, is having a similar start to last season – he was much better after the calendar flipped.
There is something seriously wrong with an organization that thinks it’s okay to hire an assistant coach with no experience at any level ever. This team has been weak defensively for many years, yet mngt is so dismissive of these issues that it hires a former player with zero coaching experience to coach defence.
This is not a judgement of Coffey. None of us know what he’s saying to the players. It’s the process and dysfunction driving the hire that should raise familiar alarm bells for all Oiler fans.
I don’t have an issue with Knoblauch as head coach. I didn’t have an issue with Woody either, or Tippet before him. Frankly, I think most coaches don’t move the needle much either way. But to hire a head coach with no NHL experience, and saddle him with a defence coach with even less experience, speaks to a much deeper rot within mngt – a lack or clear-headed professionalism that has infected this team for decades.
He’s the mole not a coach. Maybe they should let Stuart talk in game to the guys
If he’s a mole then it’s actually much worse than simply hiring a coach with no meaningful experience.
I actually saw Stuart talking to a d-man during a recent game. First time I ever noticed him interacting directly with someone. Always wondered what it is he’s supposed to be doing.
Same.
Maybe he’s security he’s pretty solid
I believe they hired Coffey as “skills coach” a few years back. Then he was quickly done as it didn’t work. somebody confirm or correct me??
anyway, 100% agree. No need to put Coffey on the bench. All my buddies were laughing in real time, saying “What the h*ll is Edmonton doing?” …
I get hiring a rookie coach – no problem with that – but who sits around the table and agrees that the best support for the rookie is someone with zero experience. I can’t wrap my head around the decision making process. Very troubling.
Everyone competent defensive assistant already has a job and is under contract in November.
It is impossible to hire a competent NHL defensive assistant in November. They all have jobs.
What about a head coaching with no coaching experience?
See Montreal Canadians and Martin St. Lous.
Tim Peel is dragging Specs all around Twitter, such a beautiful morning.
Its wild to watch/read what is happening but, first and foremost, taking a text conversation and posting in on Twitter is act most in the wrong, without a doubt.
Links, context?
It’s all over the internet, just google Spector peel.
It seems to me at this point the season is likely over. Could they recover, I suppose, but counting on it is not a wise strategy. The focus here needs to be on next season and rebounding from what has been a terrible year.
Given that, with an eye to next year, you really need to play Broberg, Lavoie and Holloway (when he’s back) so you see what you have.
You can’t trade the #1 pick this year under any circumstances. It’s going to be a valuable piece of the future.
I don’t see why you don’t fire Holland at the end of this road trip. He’s not the future. Do you really trust him to make a good move at this stage? The only hold up might be who is going to be in that role (ie. you’ve decided to go outside the org).
And you need to clear cap. If you can trade Campbell w/out giving up the future, you do. If not, you buy him out next summer, but there’s going to be some other contracts going out we might not like.
I fear (based on what some people who are pretty well connected w/another NHL org) what may come down though as it relates to Draisaitl. I’m hoping they’re wrong, but I don’t trust Holland at this point.
If the team is not in a position to make the playoffs, trading Drai absolutely has to be on the table. It will be a disaster if Drai decides not to resign in the off-season. I have zero confidence in this team to manage the situation professionally either way.
Context?