The Edmonton Oilers are playing well and getting strong performances from unusual places. Calvin Pickard had a fine game against a quality team (New Jersey Devils) and has given team management and fans something to talk about.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 3 young Edmonton Oilers prospects looking for full-time duty
- New DNB: Calvin Pickard’s play and improved defending give Oilers time to make a goalie trade
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 4 most famous midseason demotions in franchise history
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard has the points. But is his recent defensive uptick legit?
- Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, real needs
- DNB: Oilers’ Philip Broberg seeking trade, per source: Why he could be on the move
- DNB: The Oilers penalty kill has finally found its groove. What’s changed?
- Lowetide: What do the Edmonton Oilers still need to be a Stanley Cup contender?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
- Lowetide: Oilers begin rise from the depths during a stunning November
- DNB: Is it time the Edmonton Oilers expected more from Ryan McLeod?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse impressive in all areas after coaching change
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg reaches crossroads as NHL defenceman
- DNB: Four reasons why the Oilers are very much in the Western Conference playoff race
- DNB: Oilers must address goaltending situation before it’s too late
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers making a productive goalie trade is an expensive proposition
- DNB: Who is new Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch? These 3 traits define his approach
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: CAR, MIN, NJD, CHI, TBAY, FLA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-0, 12 points in 12 games
- Actual December results: 3-0-0, 6 points in 3 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 12-12-1, 25 points in 25 games
Make no mistake, this is a strong run by a legit contender. Jay Woodcroft won his last game as Oilers coach (oh, the irony!), so the team’s record in the last 13 games is 10-3-0. Now, 2-9-1 is still part of the overall record, and any losing streak of a significant length means certain doom. Credit where due. This team is a wagon. I think I said that right.
THE NUMBERS
Calvin Pickard gave this team a big lift, and instantly ignites a conversation. SHOULD the Oilers delay the Jack Campbell recall? Cancel it? In my article for The Athletic today, I talk about Olivier Rodrigue and the fact he matched Pickard in the AHL over the last two seasons. Pickard’s NHL performance in limited views looks good. Really good.
Evan Bouchard is going to shoot the moon offensively this season but it’s the outscoring (13-11 since the coaching change and 8-4 in the last seven games) that should excite you. Bouchard is having the kind of season we’ll talk about forever if there’s sustain. Darnell Nurse is also 8-4 in the last six, Mattias Ekholm 7-3 in the same six games. Brett Kulak is 7-4, Vincent Desharnais 5-4. Even Cody Ceci (4-3) is starting to join the party. This is good, good good vibrations from the blue. All numbers five-on-five.
Connor McDavid is 8-18-26 in his last 12 games. He gone. The McDavid line is 9-1 goals in the last five games, that’s at five-on-five. Screaming offense from the captain. Zach Hyman at five-on-five is averaging 1.84 goals-60 and 3.18 pts-60. That’s incredible. Nuge has a 64.3 percent goal share at five-on-five. Searing!!
So far this season, Leon Draisaitl has taken 147 offensive zone faceoffs and 137 defensive. That’s 52 percent. However, before the coaching change, 29 was 84-69, 55 percent. Since the coaching change, it’s 63-68, 48 percent. Early days, circumstantial evidence until we see a larger sample, but it’s something to talk about. A year ago, he was 51 percent (425-411). Thanks to outside observer in the comments section.
Connor Brown almost scored last night (actually he did score but it didn’t count) and that’s just about the only issue left for these Oilers. It’s a potentially significant one, though, because moving Brown to the No. 3 or No. 4 line may not benefit those trios. Since the coaching change, here are the numbers by line, using centermen and their goal shares at five-on-five as proxy:
- McDavid solo: 13-5, 72 pct
- Draisaitl solo: 3-4, 43 pct
- Glimmer Twins: 3-5, 38 pct
- Nuge solo: 1-1, 50 pct
- McLeod solo: 3-5, 38 pct
- Hamblin solo: 6-4, 60 pct
- The rest: 2-0, 100 pct
Puck IQ should be rolling at some point soon and we’ll get an idea about qual comp (Puck IQ is the only site I know that values qual comp highly). Kris Knoblauch may have found a way to outscore five-on-five (Oilers are 29-24 since he took over) and it involves the McDavid line flattening everything in its wake. McDavid ON at five-on-five is 16-10, McDavid OFF at five-on-five is 13-14, 48 percent. Knoblauch has a fourth line and is using it.
I’m not going to rip Jay Woodcroft, think he’s a fine coach. Among the tweaks we can see: PK improved, defense more effective, running four lines, riding the McDavid line at five-on-five. I think the emergence of Hamblin is also a story, and the Pickard item could become news in the days to come. I love the Hamblin story, this is a guy the organization’s scouts found, management signed and the staff in Bakersfield developed. I love it. Edmonton needs inexpensive talent doing good things on the roster. Hamblin is emerging.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we’ll review a fascinating weekend in sports. Heavy on the Oilers (Jason Gregor will be my guest) and we’ll talk NFL weekend, Kyle Connor injury, Jays pivot and more. Declan will look at the latest MMA news, too. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: 3 young Edmonton Oilers prospects looking for full-time duty
https://theathletic.com/5125944/2023/12/11/edmonton-oilers-holloway-broberg-rodrigue/
Its nice that the results stats are catching up with the process stats. Patience, regressions, all those things and I’ll go to my grave believing that it was happening with WoodMan behind the bench. Alas Glory be to those with the reigns, not KK’s fault he’s in this position and he’s playing the hand gloriously.
Just to note that all the favorite stats today are running the pace they were in March/April last year. GF, GA, PH%, PP%, HDSC%, consistent TOI and lines.
A curious thing with that coaching. In the Final Days, the word accountability was tossed at Woody, often regarding the play of one defenseman. It happened on this here blog too. Bench, demote or pressbox, his spot should go to Broberg (crazy end). All of it despite a ppg scoring, in fact that was used as a club to whack said player, “no defenseman scores like this and allows that.” Talk about a toxic brew.
Old fashioned accountability was the name of the game, get out the strap and teach that boy a lesson.
And then comes a new coaching tandem. And within a few games the same media fellas (always men) and LT commentators begin waxing poetic about the Coffey Whispers. Bouchard’s worst games were at the start of the Knoblauch era if you look at lost battles, hammer point shots at every opportunity, o-zone turnovers and missed outlets. But he got some goalie luck, his teammates bailed him out, as it should be. The critics to backed off, and then came the swooning about light touches, encouraging offensive play, dmen showing their skill, got louder with more time for the Whispers. Through it all though my boy Bouch kept scoring, a point per game, consistent like a damn clock. Now he’s back to last year which is with McD and Leon. He’s that good.
What’s the point here? Well, despite the wishes of Oiler fans when the going was tough we now have two coaches who didn’t resort to the strap. They didn’t demote or bench, they coached. And the result is a 100 point RHD that can play 25 minutes a night. Music.
It feels like this is about more than Bouchard’s emergence. This is a New World Order, so to speak.
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Ekholm-Bouchard
Clearly Knoblauch has a top line and first pairing and they play together. If he continues with this deployment it will create two strata of players 5v5 in the top-6 forwards and top-4 defenders. Draisaitl and Nurse are essentially being demoted in terms of quality of teammate.
I can’t help but see this as an organizational choice beyond Knoblauch.
In a previous blog Lowetide mentioned the choice will be between Nurse and Bouchard. The present choice is Bouchard over Nurse.
Those who represent Bouchard (divested or not) are doing everything to ensure his success. A reasonable question is what is the price of that success?
Is this true?
Iirc, Woody basically used the same 5 man units after the deadline. Obviously Woody went to the blender a lot but Ek-Bouch played a ton with McD and Drai got the leftovers.
In my opinion, coaches go to these units because they view Drai/Nurse as a better shut down option.
Yes. It’s true.
They also view Ekholm-Bouchard as a better scoring option. Even 3v3, we see Bouchard deployed with 97 & 29. Not 25. A we know that 3v3 25 has been very good with the big guns and has scored important goals. We will now see Bouchard as the first choice.
I don’t think I agree with this.
Its not Bouchard over Nurse as the #1 d-man.
Its Nurse over Bouch for the toughest competition minutes along with the Drai line for those minutes which also frees up the McDavid line with Bouchard for second tier comp.
This isn’t opinion. It’s fact and it sounds like you’re agreeing with me.
Bouchard 5v5 TOI with McDavid
Woodcroft: 8:34 MIN/GP
Knoblauch: 10.24 MIN/GP
Nurse 5v5 TOI with McDavid
Woodcroft: 5:00 MIN/GP
Knoblauch: 3:51 MIN/GP
93/97/18/2/14 5v5 TOI
Woodcroft: 0:04 MIN
Knoblauch: 41:12 MIN
Knoblauch is creating a scoring line which he plays with the scoring pair of Bouchard and Ekholm. The 5 of these players together have extremely high GF% and xGF%. They also get more OZS than the Draisaitl line and Nurse-Ceci pairing
Bouchard is going to hit 100 points playing with this line. They are making a 10M defender.
The inverse effect is lower points totals for 5v5 for Draisaitl.
What happens next year will be very interesting. The 2025-2026 Edmonton Oilers will not have all three of Nurse, Bouchard and Draisaitl. Especially after Bouchard passes hits 100 points this season.
McTavish was commenting on how Knoblauch is loading up the first line yesterday on Stauffer’s show. He was saying that other coaches have eventually found that they need spread the strength of winger between Draisaitl and McDavid, or have given McDavid weaker wingers. Knoblauch is not “spreading the love” so to speak. McTavish said he might have to change his approach. I don’t know if he’s going to. The dimension that McTavish didn’t comment on, is that this strength of scoring extends to the defensive pairing. Knoblauch is loading that up too with McDavid.
The moves are fairly straight forward if you can get Tanev out of CGY with Kulak going the other way. Tanev’s numbers are still good even rocking a horrible on-ice SP. Tanev and Nurse would form a great shut-down pair with Ceci-Broberg being solid as well. No weak link on defense if we do this and nobody gets over-played. Desharnais is 7D which is just fine for the rest of this season.
On L2 I’d try swap Fog and Brown for a couple of weeks to see how that goes or bring up Lavoie and give him a shot.
In net you keep Jean-Luc up as long as he’s doing the job. Team seems to like him a lot and plays hard for him. Campbell is just a distraction with his fragility. Play Campbell and Rodrique 50-50 down in Bako. Might like to see Rodrigue get a NHL game this season if we can manage as he seems like he’s getting close. No need to favor Campbell anymore in Bako. He gets starts if he plays well – few if he doesn’t. He’s most likely done as an Oiler by the TDL or off-season at most.
Tanev is a rental and Kulak is signed for 2 more years at a reasonable, although not value, rate.
What else goes in that trade?
I think coach really likes Foegele and McLeod together and, although Foegele in the top 6 has worked in the past, Foegele and McDavid were are 1-6 goals and Foegele and Drai are 2-4 goals (I believe) this season – LT has those numbers over at The Athletic.
Holloway is coming back to join McLeod and Foegele – a trip that was killing it this season.
Drai is getting the tough comp minutes – can’t see the coach putting Lavoie in that spot.
FYI, Tanev got hurt last night, might be a shoulder injury…
I’d love to do a Broberg vs Kulak and Vinnie comparison to date + 2022-23. But I am waiting for the PuckIQ data to drop.
Better yet, I’d love it if Darcy & Bruce could collaborate and present the CoH data in conjunction with the Puck IQ data.
Poll:
+ for those who’d like to see that info
For those who aren’t interested and think Broberg is more useful in a trade, please pick –
Broberg’s NHL fancies are basically useless because he barely plays and the sample size is tiny.
For example, this season Broberg has only played 90 minutes 5v5. Only 16 minutes with Desharnais and 41 with Kulak.
Impossible/silly to draw any conclusions on such a small sample size.
What we do know is that multiple coaches prefer Kulak and Desharnais.
22-23 Broberg only played 39 minutes with Desharnais and 50 minutes with Kulak.
We also know the bias of coaches when it comes to young players vs vets.
I also would not limit this study to just PT together, it should include each players’ complete body of work.
I wouldn’t call the 500 plus minutes he played prior to deadline last year insignificant. This year his 9 min a night is a shit show and your right about it.
I broke down bro vs kulak the other day. I used 5v5 stats from last year and here is what I found.
Seeing alot of Kulak is the better player but when I look at the stats from last year when they were playing 3ld, broberg until the deadline and then kulak after the deadline, the counting stats are not even close.
Corsi has broberg ahead by 8.66%, Fenwick is broberg by 7.68%, shots is broberg by 7.74%, goals are broberg by 6.52%, scoring chances is broberg by 6.32% and then looking at high danger goals we see some likely rookie errors. Broberg has a 2.91% lead with HD corsi but Kulak has a far better HD goals by 8.4%.
As a note here the goalies did not perform equally for each. Kulak enjoyed a 90.79 on ice save % while broberg had an 89.13 on ice save %.
So the rookie outperformed the veteran bur still lost his spot after the Ekholm trade. Then the next year he is limited to 9 min a game while the entire team is floundering and judged on that instead of his excellent play when given toi and a steady spot to play.
Note all numbers are 5v5 from natural stat trick.
My point is, Broberg is a tough player to evaluate at the NHL level.
Even Broberg’s overall numbers from last season are tough. How often was Broberg the 7th D? He only averaged 12:36 a game.
Defensive numbers are very much effected by the quality of competition. SV% is also effected by quality of shots allowed. Did you look into either of these when you did the comparison?
Yes I did take a look and for brevity did not add them.
Above I noted that Broberg did much worse in HD goals than kulak, likely a rookie issue. The odd part there is against middle and gritty opponents Broberg did significantly better.
As to corsi and Fenwick relative to competition I can only use the entire season and not broken down where each was playing 3rd ld as above.
Corsi rel to competition vs all Broberg is at +3.6% Kulak is -3.9 so 7.5% difference
Dangerous Fenwick rel to competition vs all Broberg is +3% Kulak is -3.8%
Players (defenders) have an on-ice SV%.
Serious analysts, including David Johnson, believe this. By extension GF% is important.
During their time with EDM… 21-present.
Broberg has a -6 goal share across 890 minutes of 5v5 play. Ekholm is +23 across 750 minutes of much more difficult play. Kulak is +2 across 1859 third pairing minutes.
This is regression to the mean in the case of Kulak but also reflects what we see on the ice. Broberg has struggled somewhat in limited sheltered minutes. Kulak has a better track record across a much wider sample. The two don’t compare. Ekholm is doing the Lord’s work.
Wierd. I did some digging and here are David Johnson’s wordsa
While I acknowledge that in the future it may change, currently this is the way it is. While some combination of talent and style have ability to influence on-ice sv% the measure is so iqpĺnaccurate that adding the information actually decreases your accuracy in making conclusions on a player.
Regardless of the reasons why, in its current form on-ice sv% is not reliable enough to be used in analysis.
This is compounded with how relationship of past and future is actually weakened and become more random once you take into account other factors such as TOI (like Michael Parkatti found).
Meanwhile Corsi% actually becomes more reliable once usage affects are accounted for (like Stephen Burtch found).
The two data sets are basically unrelated. One counts major mistakes and contributions by eye (Staples & McCurdy). The other parses the score sheet and separates on-ice stats against different levels of competition (which are largely determined by QOC TOI I believe).
One data set is subjective and is not related to shot attempts (Cult). The other is objective but can’t asses faults not related to shot attempts (PuckIQ). I don’t see how they go together except that looking at them side by side like Bruce certainly does in his writing (David doesn’t) is interesting.
.
So what you are saying is that any data on Broberg is invalid.
Or we use our “saw him good/saw him bad goggles”?
So many choices, what is there to do?
I am not saying it’s invalid. At this point, the eye test is probably just as useful as Broberg’s fancies. Specifically if you want to compare him with Kulak and Desharnais.
Like the time he stepped on the stick while skating backwards or the time he got that shitty bouncing pass from his partner that bounced out in front of the net or the time that rebound hit the opponent and dropped right in front of his stick for a tap-in.
My eyes saw a lot of bad luck for Broberg on GA this season. A LOT, including Swiss cheese-like goaltending….
Who all had Oil at Bettman .500 in the first half of December after been left for dead at American Thanksgiving?
With 3 games in hand to make up 3 points on the Preds the Oil currently have the whip hand to grab the WC#2 spot.
Look at how much the Bettman points over .500 has changed outside the top 6 since turkey day.
+2 Yotes (up 3)
+2 Preds (up 4)
0 Oilers (up 7)
0 Blues (down 3)
-2 Wild (up 1)
-2 Flames (same)
-5 Kraken (down 6)
-6 Ducks (down 6)
-8 Blackhawks (down 1)
-9 Sharks (up 3)
Yotes down 4-1 tonight after 2.
Preds are up by 5 points, not three. Arizona is up by 3 points.
The Predators are games->28 – points 30 – this is 7 place in the playoff race – First wildcard
As of 7:20pm
The Coyotes are games->27 – points 28 – this is 8 place in the playoff race – Last wildcard (down 2 to 4 with 6min left)
The Blues are games-> 27 – points 27 – this is 9 place in the playoff race
The Oilers are games-> 25 – points 25 – this is 10 place in the playoff race
I expect the Oilers will eventually pass the Blues & Coyotes and be firmly in 7th but that is about all the push as the 11 point lead the Kings have with the same number of games is too great. The Kings are not going to falter that hard to allow the Oil to catch-up, I hope they do, but that is an unreasonable expectation.
The Dys will be hearing footsteps.
I’m not expecting anything in particular, but I’d like to see how the ‘Talbot career season at 36’ thing plays out before pronouncing anything unlikely or impossible.
Of note, Talbot is also on pace for by far his highest GP total since he was a 30-year old Edmonton Oiler, and his backup is rocking a worse SV% than NHL Jack Campbell.
That sounds like awesome news!!
The Kings are 4-1-2 with Copley in goal..
Team defense.
Kings lost 2 in a row. Losing sight of first…. and second. Teams getting big in the rearview mirror. Cant seam to score more than two goals lately. Letting in 4 goals yesterday? Oh boy inba mostly goalie league, id be worried.
The Kings were at the end of a long eastern road trip and played 3 games in 4 nights with the last being against the powerful Rangers.
They played very well but ran out of gas in the third period.
Nothing to worry about.
The Canucks are this years kraken. There’s a good chance you’ll also abandon them by seasons end after talking nonstop while they are running with ridiculous PDO early here..
If you take all their 5×5 dangerous scoring chance and save percentages and correct them back to what the average was for last 3 years of league leader numbers – about a dozen goals disappear.
You also might want to argue with HH version 6526 on strength of schedule impact for them as well.
Samorukov is on waivers. I still believe he’ll be a good D someday. I don’t think they should pick him up because their left side is overflowing at the moment, but I hope he gets a chance somewhere.
I think he’ll be playing in Russia next season – Holland cut bait at the right time.
…..and in related news Kostin has 2 goals and 3 points on the season. Every once in a while a GM keeps his hands out of the cookie jar to good effect.
Kostin was also placed on IR
I confess to liking this player and hoping he would get the chance to play next to Bouchard in the NHL as he did in the AHL under Woodcroft/Manson. I thought they played well together. Didn’t work out.
Jason Gregor
@JasonGregor
“They have the third best defensive metrics in the NHL since the coaching change in limiting chances and expected goals against,” @KevinisInGoal
now on @Sports1440
Wish we had access to that data. They’re 10th-ish in all the ‘against’ metrics under Knoblauch by the publicly available numbers. I wonder if the proprietary metrics actually correlate better with outcomes.
I would think they do, yes. But he must be looking at something very specific. Because it’s not showing that well in the public data.
They have the highest xGF% since Nov.12 on Natural Stat Trick.
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
For the record, I didn’t put the Edmonton Oilers in the top five … this week. You’re all on notice.
https://theathletic.com/5127079/2023/12/11/weekend-nhl-rankings-penguins-sabres/
Dude, why can’t you learn to use quotes?
“For the record, I didn’t put the Edmonton Oilers in the top five … this week. You’re all on notice.”
It’s not hard.
I’m sorry you are in feelings.
It’s really irritating, though. I’ve been skipping by your comments because it’s never clear. Honestly. Not trying to be a jerk, it’s unreadable.
You’ve been asked before, and by our host no less. I never know if you’re saying something or you’re quoting someone else. I would think you’d want to be clear, both to not be blamed for something someone else says and to not take credit for someone else’s work.
I thought you said this “For the record, I didn’t put the Edmonton Oilers in the top five … this week. You’re all on notice.”
… and it seemed kind of confrontational. Then I read the article later on my own and recalled you saying this and realized you had just failed to attribute someone else’s work. I’m actually a fan of yours on here. I know you’re a smart guy, so I don’t understand the resistance to the feedback you’ve gotten about this.
I thought my request here today was kind of fun and relaxed. I even used the word “dude”! And then to respond with this, frankly jerky, response, “I’m sorry you are in feelings.” Well, I’m less of a fan now.
A good day to you, sir!
The Jack Campbell poison pill:
Would you rather:
1) Trade Jack Campbell in a package that includes Philip Broberg and a 1st for Merzlikins
2) Trade him, Kulak, Lavoie, and a 2nd to Montreal for Josh Anderson and Monahan.
3) Make neither trade and buy Jack out in the summer.
3
I guess we can’t pick 1a, Campbell and a 1st for Merzlikins.
So probably option 3. Dont like the idea of giving up on Broberg. And although Kulak isn’t playing great you need experienced defensive depth. We would likely need to trade for a depth defender at the deadline if we packaged Kulak.
1) the Oilers add to Campbell in a Merzlikins swap should be MUCH less than Broberg and a 1st – Merzlikins is almost as negative value as Jack – not quite but close enough. Talk Tulio and a 4th as the add.
2) That would be Kulak, a 2nd and Lavoie to rent Monohan as Josh Anderson may have just as much negative value as Campbell. In fact, I’d rather keep Campbell than trade his straight across for Anderson and his anchor
3) Out of the options presented, 3, by far.
3 – cause options 1 and 2 are so bad, they look like they were negotiated by ChiaPet.
3
If it takes a first round draft pick to shed Campbell’s contract, he remains a Condor, then I buy him out in the summer
#3, definitely. Let Campbell sit on the bench as a backup in the AHL; then buy him out. Give the AHL games to Rodriques. Learn not to overpay for players who have a reputation for inconsistency and unreliability.
At the time that Hyman was signed, the deal was widely panned as an overpay for a player with a reputation for being injury prone and hence unreliable.
Kane was widely believed to be unreliable due his prior personal problems.
Sometime you’ve just got to roll the hard six. But that doesn’t mean you keep doubling down on a loser bet once it painfully obvious that things have gone tits up.
Most teams are saddled with at least one regrettable contract. At least we don’t have Huberdeau at 10.5 million for the next 8 seasons. I wonder what the Flames are going to do once he becomes unplayable in a season or two?
I don’t think Columbus would take a cap dump being a small market, not sure the owner would stomach it. So the only way option one or two can happen is if Campbell re-established himself as a legit NHL goaltender with more than a few reasonable starts. That seems low probability at this point.
Yes, the scouts “found” the captain of a divisional opponent of the Oil Kings who scored 92 points in 63 games.
Good job, scouts.
All the other teams didn’t sign him so yes if he sticks in the nhl it’s a good job for the scouts.
Wow, that’s a lot of angst…did people mistake me for HH?
I really like Hamblin, and I was super happy when he signed his AHL deal with the Oil. I saw him score 4 goals in a game, and I was shocked that he was never drafted. Probably because he is less than 6 feet. As you mention, no scout was able to convince their GM to take him in the draft.
But reeaaallly. Edmonton boy chooses to sign with the Oilers, who also have former SSAC teammates (Benson, Skinner) in their farm system. He has a great story, but I don’t think it hinges on the scouts, who didn’t draft him.
It reads more like this: Local gem who scouts never thought would make it, signs with hometown team and fulfills his dream.
Ok I can see how your looking at it, on the other side do you believe he tracked Holland down to beg an opportunity? Or does it make sense that scouts got lots of time to watch him and recommended to Holland that he should be signed?
How the name came up….we don’t know. Could have been a viewing by Holland in Edmonton or an acquaintance in Medicine Hat. Did his agent reach out for an AHL deal? Lots of possibilities. Surely, the scouts notes would have been consulted, and it must have said good things.
Any thoughts on adding Kuzmenko? Oil showed interest previous, Nucks are looking for money out, so a 3rd team may have to be involved. If CB doesn’t work out, I believe you could trade him at league minimum (Oil eat bonus anyway) so Van could bury if needed and we send back a Foegele+ likely picks. Right shot, scored 39 last year. If Van really wants the flexibility, the cost may be cheaper ala Zadorov the other way. 5.5M isn’t impossible. Will cause issues but inevitable Campbell buyout moves the needle a touch.
Send Kulak out to someone else if needed and fit in Bro. The Oil got creative last year with Ekholm, worth a thought experiment. As trigger man to Leon that may be the spark they need to get over the hump.
I do like the thought. Money would be a squeaker however. Broberg would also have to convince Holland he is way to good for the A over the next few weeks.
I would keep brown at least until the deadline. It’s a year after acl recovery time until the player is back to normal.
Also a rw of hyman, Kuzmenko, Brown (at his regular ability and ryan. That’s solid.
If it means Stanley i think you do it. I’m surprised at the pushback. Bro becomes a regular at cheap ala Bouch last year, we get a 39 goal scorer in his prime for 1 more season that lines up with Leo’s contract. Friedman reported Van wants space.
Foegs is on an expiring contract year and has scored 39 goals in the last 4 seasons combined.
I think there’s a fit if Tocchet continues to hate on Kuz. Kuz’s modified NTC may not include Edmonton since it was between the 2 for his services last time. Van already traded once in division.
At least pick up the phone I’d say.
Not sure I would move anyone besides kulak and pay for the salary retention.
A lw of rnh, Kane, foegle and janmark is again solid.
Downside would of course be less defensive depth. That however can be looked at by deadline and then we HOPE goalies are not our Achilles heel in round 1.
Considerable speculation that Vancouver and Nashville are discussing a Kuzmenko -Tyson Barrie trade.
Vancouver’s biggest need is a RD and while Barrie is not a perfect fit because he wouldn’t see much PP time, Tocchet insists on balanced pairs.
The trade would free up $1 million in cap space for the Canucks to make another move and they would likely want a second round pick since they don’t have one and Nashville has three.
Kuzmenko is a flash in the pan, who the Dys signed for way too much. Regression hit his completely unsustainable shooting percentage this season. Why would we want to help the Dys get out of their bad contract?
I didn’t suggest it.
Direct your question elsewhere.
but you’re the expert on unsustainable shooting percentages no ? or does that only concern the Oilers 😉 ?
Flash in the pan ????? That’s a hot take from a top scout right.
Guy developed to point a game in mhl, then point a game in the K and then the N for almost a point a game and in a sophomore slump is still at 50 point pace. Take a look and see what 50 point plus players are paid.
He got fed cherry minutes on a bottom feeder and needs PP time to produce.i don’t want to be on the hook for his cap hit next season. Neither do the Dys apparently as they already have buyers remorse.
I can tell you that I for one am shocked (shocked!) that’s he’s only got 4 goals and a shooting percentage of 10.5% this season.
I’m not going to say anything that hasn’t been said already and apologies for the optimism but there’s no way Knoblauch is going to change the lineup at all during a crucial 7 game winning streak. Knobby has four lines rolling right now and that’s a first in a long time. I’m having a hard time recalling a fourth line playing this well for the team.
The second line is sawing off all the best oppositions, all the while during Drais December(every year) and Kane obviously dealing with something(missed 4 of the last 5 practices) and Brown’s inability to be schneidless. Seriously, of all the comments today a lot are talking about Browns offense but the guy scored last night…how would the comments section in here be if it counted? A lot quieter?
Furthermore on Brown, I see a player that’s always in the right position. I find his positioning exceptional and I believe that’s what’s helping this line take on the toughs. My eyes rarely see him make a mistake with or without the puck. I believe the offense will come with some patience.
Speaking of patience, Holland probably deserves some credit for weathering this team through the storm that was the first month. Along with some of us here he knew this team was way way(!) better than what they were showing and I believe he deserves some credit for the way it was handled. I’m even liking the way he’s seeing through with the Campbell situation, see what you have before forcing something. And I know young player development is a good talking point but people complained about the way Bouch was handled and the way Skinner was handled but they seem to be doing alright now. I’m okay with more patience for Broberg, Rodrigue and Holloway. Knee jerk reactions was so Chia days and I believe that kind of stuff reverberates down through the roster. He and Jackson helped right the ship.
Speaking of Jackson, remember when some people here were clamoring for him, Holland, Schwartz, Coffey, Gulutzan etc..to be fired because they didn’t want them handling the unavoidable inevitability that was the imminent McDavid and Drai trade requests?
Heh, I like this place better when the Oil are winning.. kinda😉
It doesn’t seem long ago that Skinner was viewed as a raw rookie who no one could trust. Now he’s the de facto number 1 goalie.
Pickard had a very good game; and now deserves more starts in the games ahead. Who knows? it could be a lot worse in this year’s road to the cup to have a pair of good young netminders.
Campbell? Please. He’s a complete dud as an Oiler. Keep him in the AHL until the playoffs then he can be the 3rd stringer in the unlikely event of anything happens to both goalies.
Pickard was drafted in 2010 and is 31. He played 70 NHL games over two seasons with Colorado back in 2016-17 but has not been able to crack a lineup since.
Glad he had a good game. Hope he keeps it up. But he is not a young, untested goalie.
Right now Campbell is not even out-performing Picard as an AHL goalie. Jack is done in the NHL with Oilers. He’ll either get bought out or used as cap ballast in a trade.
That just means he’s due to break out ! 🙂
Are you thinking of Rodrigue? Pickard is in his 30’s. Rodrigue is 23.
Interestingly he’s the same age as Schmid, the New Jersey goalie we saw yesterday. He was better than Schmid in the AHL last year too, although Schmid got called up mid season and set the NHL on fire.
I doubt the Oilers management team would have the guts to call up Rodrigue, if they did it would only be to man the gate.
Random contract question for those in the know (I don’t believe the Oilers would/could do this–we can debate the should):
If they trade Brown at some point during the season, does it affect the balance of the bonus charged against next year’s cap?
No- the bonus vested while Brown was an Oiler – it’s ours
If the Oilers have any cap space at the end of this season they can apply it towards the amount owed, and any overage will be applied to next year’s cap
Vrana on waivers. Cap space is an issue. Wonder if he is enough of an upgrade over Connor Brown to trade for with salary retained?
Vrana is waived b/c he has serious consistency issues.
He gives up way more than he produces and can’t play an effective 5v5 w/o giving up plenty.
Brown may not be producing; but he’s not cheating for Offence either.
HARD PASS
OK makes sense why Berube would bench such a prolific scorer. I did a quick calc via CapF and it doesn’t work anyway unless there’s significant salary retention or if it’s part of a swap of Campbell for Binnington. Either way, scoring is not our issue so hard to see how this helps us right now I guess. Thanks for the reply
Honestly can’t think of 2 better 4th line linemates for a Hamblin type than Ryan and Gagner.
Or Dylan Holloway.
I wouldn’t do a thing that would potentially knock the Oilers off kilter during this very necessary winning run.
I know the players like Campbell, but I don’t see how he wouldn’t be a distraction right now. I’m worried he gets into a game, the Oilers go down one early and they start to play tight thinking “we can’t let this one snowball, Soup needs the confidence”.
The point at which Campbell should be called up is when he looks like a player dominating a league that he is clearly too good for. I haven’t watched any Condors games, but I haven’t heard anything to suggest that’s where Campbell is or has been at.
I also wonder if the Oilers are making the same mistake with Rodrigue that they did with Skinner at the same age. Skinner could have come up and been better than one or both of Smith and Koskinen, but he didn’t get a look. Rodrigue might be the 2nd best goalie in the organization right now, and better than some realistic trade targets. There’s no need to do anything right now with Pickard playing well, but it might be smart to get a look at him before hitting the trade market. I’m looking at that very soft stretch of January games as an opportunity.
I think they kinda like Pickard too.
It would be unfair to Calvin Pickard to play an inferior player ahead of him solely due to contract status.
We’re in the winning business.
Pickard has certainly paid his dues.
Maybe it’s finally his time to shine.
Fun fact: Rodrigue is less than 2 months younger than Akira Schmid, a veteran of 36 regular season games and 9 playoff games for the New Jersey Devils. Rodrigue was a 2nd round pick in 2018 while Schmid was picked in the 5th.
I don’t know if Rodrigue is ready for NHL duty, but sadly I doubt the Oilers do either. They prioritized a journeyman goalie over Rodrigue last season (even though Pickard didn’t separate) and prioritized both Pickard and Campbell this season.
How long does the young man have to wait?
Goalies are WEIRD! We know that.
I say, keep Pickard exactly where he is at. Lots of goalies undulate throughout their careers, with peaks and valleys. Hell, it took Roloson until he was what, 33, until he had any sort of consistent success in the NHL. I know he had other factors at play, but still.
I’d love for the Oilers to treat Pickard like a legitimate backup for now. Keep him there until he forces your hand otherwise. Because, you just never know. Right system, right time, right coaching… sometimes things happen.
100%
3 starting goalies came to mind that broke out late (Hasek, Roloson, Anderson). Pickard is a little older but we also only need a backup, not high odds but not impossible.
If Draisaitl’s line can come close to sawing off at evens during his SAD December, that’s fine with me.
Is it as simple as once Holloway is back, we run these two lines
Kane. Draisatl. Foegele (he has earned it)
Holloway. McLeod. Brown
Leave the 1st and 4th line (when have we ever said that) together, and small switch on the middle lines.
Looks like the coach wants to keep his lines together to develop chemistry. So he’s probably going to stick with
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Leon-Brown
Janmark-MacLeod-Foegele
Holloway-Hamblin-Ryan/Gagner
He’s going to have to sort out that fourth line.
You’re benching Janmark? I respectfully disagree.
Forgot about Janmark. Slide to 4th line, bump one of Gagner or Ryan. Good problem to have
Isn’t it just so nice when they’re winning? Such a positive post today LT. Everything is coming up roses!
Great game Oilers. Kudos to the new coach for all of his adjustments over the past month. That may have been the calmest goaltender performance of the year. I’d like to see Pickard get a few more starts to see if he can bring that type of game again. Evan Bouchard has really turned his game around under the new coach after a terrible start to the year. I really didn’t like the forced pass by Draisaitl into the middle that led to a 3 on 1 the other way in the first period. The Devils missed the net a couple of times on odd man rushes and the Oilers were lucky. Draisaitl needs to change his game and cut out 10% of his passes that are high risk. There is no need for that garbage in a 0-0 game. To me he is one of the guys on the team that still refuses to play responsibly 5 on 5. I don’t like him and Kane together defensively. The fourth line was gold last night coming up big with the first goal. At this point if I’m Holland I hold off until the deadline to make any trades and wait until prices are cheaper.
That’s why they need Brown to be the defensive conscience.
That player needs to be able to
keep up with the play of the game.
brown should be in the ahl until
he can
I’d say Brown will make you eat those words very soon.
I’ll reiterate my call from the game thread yesterday to play Gagner with Kane and Draisaitl.
That’s the immediate move to make.
I wonder what toi looks like under knob
https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=game&dateFrom=2023-11-12&dateTo=2023-12-11&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=franchise.25&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50
I love that they took Mcdavid and Drai off the pk. Those are very hard minutes with lots of rubber flying at you and should be handled by complimentary players.
Campbell should play about every 3rd or 4th game. In Bakersfield.
I was worried about the Brown contract but damn, that’s a big swing and a miss
Grumpy post, this team is full value for the streak:
Many (most?) of us said at least 20 games for Brown to get back into the swing of things after not playing hockey for a whole year. We just decided to ignore it cause we’re running out of things to complain about?
Guy hit a crossbar and had one taken away in his most recent games. He’s parked in front of the net for both which bodes well. His defensive game is sound. It’s coming.
~0.5 ppg career average can happen. It’ll all be at Evens too which as we know is more valuable than goals scored in other situations even though they count the same on the scoreboard.
When that happens we may finally be as good as whatever flavour of the month is doing well.
Nice to see Picard have a strong outing. I would leave Campbell where he is and keep looking for a trade that makes sense overall for a #2 goalie that doesn’t break us. Why rock the boat? But I guess it is a decision that they will have to look at. Don’t think we are dealing from the bottom of the deck as we would have been 3 weeks ago when the fans were desperate but Holland ( good on him I guess) stuck to his guns and didn’t pay a ridiculous price for parts that were needed. He had faith ( I sure didn’t ).
Love the way the team is playing right now. Be nice I’d Pickard could have a game or 2 just like that up to X mas.
Brown certainly isn’t killing it offensively and that line isn’t producing a ton at evens. At the same time, let’s note that the line, along with Nurse and Ceci, is taking in the oppositions top players more than any other line. Coach is using it as the tough minutes line. Credit to TeamBlue who pointed this out (to me at least).
Brown is a black hole offensively right now but does help with the 2-way play needed.
Holloway will be back after the holiday break so that will change the lineup a bit.
One could make the argument is could slide in to that line but that would be two left wingers.
I don’t think they should break up McLeod and Foegele so Warren isn’t an opinion.
Maybe Sam but he probably comes out for Holloway.
Lavoie is an option for us fans but I doubt the coaches would put him in that role against tough comp at this point.
in my mind the logical move is to go holloway-drat-kane and leave the 3rd line and run brown-hamblin-ryan on the 4th with samwise as the 13th forward.
The problem is too left wingers, neither of which has any experience playing the RW – at least as an Oilers for Kane (can’t speak to any offside usage earlier in his career – but Holloway has been C/LW at least from college in to pro.
I’m also not positive the coach will trust Holloway’s defensive responsibility in a tough minutes role right away – he has had his issues with turnover, bad line changes, et.
I think it wise to be patient with Brown.
I think Brown is getting way too much rope, only because he has that signing bonus. Another player putting up his numbers(?) on the second line with Drai would be getting run out of town already.
Don’t disagree, eventually has to piss a drop but they aren’t losing the goalshare and the bottom 6 mix is working lately. Taking hard minutes in the meantime keeps him useful enough until hopefully the offense comes back.
Not ideal, but if it doesn’t click there’s a deadline move to make to put that line back into the outscoring column.
I would think you are correct on the Holloway replacing Gagner. We love Sam but his skating is slower by the game and his career is winding down. Perhaps if he plays, say every third game, he will bring the fire and compete that burns inside him.
The Oilers had/have the clear plan to bring Jack Campbell up but the premise wasn’t anything to do with the player being owed another shot, or anything like. The premise was that, the ideal situation was that Jack would recover enough to be a viable back-up and the organization would not need to spend assets to acquire a goalie and save them for other upgrades (and not have to pay the price right now to get rid of Campbell in the process, if needed).
To the extent that Campbell continues to struggle in the AHL, of course, they shouldn’t, and I don’t think will, bring him up.
Campbell’s recall is predicated on his play and, to this date, its not close to good enough.
Pickard is giving the team time to continue to asses any external acquisitions and allowing Campbell more time to may recover but, for me, I don’t think that’s the 1B/back-up situation that they would be willing to go in to the playoffs with.
Great work by Pickard but we know that even true AHL goalies can come up to the NHL and provide short term high end tending but its a very short term thing.
The problem with giving Jack more AHL runway is they will likely continue to give him 3 out of every 4 starts with Rodrigue not getting the ice he has earned (and needs).
the solutions is if pickard drops off you call up the other goaltender with a 0.900+ sv % in the AHL and play him as skinners backup.
Rodrigue is outplaying campbell by far in the AHL despite getting limited starts.
It’s a great opportunity for them to see what they have with Pickard & Rodrigues. Campbell had his chance .
Do you trust the asses in the Oilers office to assess the situation correctly?
Yes. Yes I do. Is your point more than just personal vitriol?
Brown has dementored whatever line he has been on this year five on five.
McDavid to start the year. Than McLeod. Now Draisaitl.
Draisaitl always ends up with the leftovers, and then the mob and the media pillory him.
Draisaitl was pretty much the only OIlers who started the season well.
Ryan should probably be promoted to play with Draisaitl (or Lavoie), and Brown to the fourth line, where he can still contribute as a PK. (Ryan and Gagner can share the spot with Draisaitl).
i think the move is to replace brown with holloway when he returns from injury.
brown to the 4th line, force him to sign a 775k extension and hope to hell he rebounds next season.
Mostlikely Holloway will start out on the fourth line when he returns from injury. I would think he replaces Gagner.
Upvoted for “dementored”
Leon’s tied for 12th in NHL scoring and you are complaining that he isn’t getting the best linemates?
Let him sign another contract, then we can find him better linemates.
Ceci has been at or near the top of the Oilers +/- and goal differential lists all season has he not?
By eye at least he has been one of, if not the, most consistent Oilers D since the start of the year.
Time for an optometrist appointment.
Got Lasik done over 5 years ago now, best money I ever spent!
Same here! Lots of horror stories out there but for me it was huge
Too early to eat crow? Never seen such a quick turnaround. I still think the goaltending needs to be worked out and the team can’t afford injury going forward.
But they have far exceeded my immediate expectations and for that I will EAT CROW!!
It’s incredible how quickly this team took themselves out of, and then back into, playoff contention. Oilers hockey has always been volatile but this is exceptional. There are shades of the 1997-1998 season where a few key winning streaks, particularly at the end of the season, allowed them to sneak into the postseason.
Hamblin (and Gagner) emerging to make that 4th line a real thing is fantastic. Who knew in the summer that the bottom 6 just required those 2 additions to make it a powerhouse.
And I am sorry for Connor Brown, but he does not belong on the team. The way he has been a drag on the 2nd line is killing 29. Seeing Drai pass off on a few good opportunities yesterday suggests to me his confidence is shot. When Holloway gets back he should join 29 & Kane, with Brown sitting for a while or going to the AHL. It is a good thing the rest of the team is rolling, or this would be a much much bigger story.
Holloway on that line is not a bad idea. Of all the non-McDavid players Leon has played well with, probably the top would be Yamamoto for some reason. Hollywood is a bigger, faster, non-Smurf version (aggressive, forechecking demon, no hands).
Could work!
Brown is helping with the PK (he and Janmark seem to be finding chemistry). But he is not helping Drai and Kane at all. As was being speculated around here (or maybe in The Athletic), would it make sense to flip Gagner and Brown until Holloway is ready to return?
or rotate samwise and the stormin morman alongside drat and kane until holloway returns so they dont end up playing too many mins.
A fully restored Brown may yet be a glue piece that helps keep whatever line he’s on from folding against the toughs. I mean, that plus minimum offense is still to be hoped for.
As Mactavish said, you have to at least be a threat to score. I haven’t seen that from Brown at all. Most nights I don’t even notice him in the offensive zone.
Brown had his first goal of the season taken off the board last game against the Devils. We’re you not watching?
It wouldn’t have gone in without Kane interfering with the goalie. If the only way you score is if the goalie can’t save it, then I think that is not a genuine scoring threat.
How else do you score on a goalkeeper, except for when he or she can’t save it ?
The context of Bar_Qu’s comment is that the goalie tries to make the save & he is not pushed out of the way which is why it was called off.
Gagner is wily. Have been loving his contributions, so many smart touches. Hamblin is giving it his all – like a Reddox redux who can score now and then.
What about Derek Ryan?
Derek Ryan was good last year too. He just needed good complementary pieces, which is what Gagner and Hamblin have been. I am thrilled we have Ryan and Ryan light (Hamblin) for our bottom 6.
I like Gags. But Ryan will probably be patrolling RW with the two youngsters (Holloway & Hamblin) when the time comes.
him too.
We’re 1 day away from the 1 month anniversary of Woodcrofts firing.
It’s wild to think that it’s only been a month, and going through the comments of the threads last month, you would think they were typed out during the DoD years.
Also, with all of the comments claiming McDavid was running the team (into the ground) it’s only fair to give him his due now. McGM – really turned this team around!
And to be fair, it was the optics of those changes that ignited the comments, not all believed 97 was behind those moves.
Man, if Knob can unlock the second line, we are golden. Not sure what the answer is but Kane and Brown together is hard to watch.