Connor McDavid established himself as a special talent early and keeps adding pieces to his skill set. I think he’s going to be remembered as one of the all-time best, possibly the greatest ever. Bob Dylan once called “Wichita Lineman” the perfect song. I remember when it was a hit (1969) for Glen Campbell. The song had a chart life (highly successful across all adult radio formats) and quickly passed into classic status. It’s like the Beatles “Yesterday” or The White Stripes “Seven Nation Army” in that it is attached forever to a specific time, to a distant and clear memory, while also being timeless and part of the lore we share. Music can do that to a soul.
I think that’s what we are watching in Connor McDavid. We are watching history in real time, while also attaching his accomplishments to our own personal time stamp. We shall not forget him, while also being aware that he is supreme and sublime right now, today. What a joy to be in this era of hockey, and to live in the city where all the magic happens. Don’t look past him, ladies and men. Connor McDavid is hockey’s ultimate outer marker. There is nothing greater beyond what we are seeing today. It may come in the future, but it is a distant bell today. Connor McDavid is ultimate Everest.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Are the Edmonton Oilers able to make a strong trade this season?
- Lowetide: 3 young Edmonton Oilers prospects looking for full-time duty
- DNB: Calvin Pickard’s play and improved defending give Oilers time to make a goalie trade
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 4 most famous midseason demotions in franchise history
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard has the points. But is his recent defensive uptick legit?
- Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, real needs
- DNB: Oilers’ Philip Broberg seeking trade, per source: Why he could be on the move
- DNB: The Oilers penalty kill has finally found its groove. What’s changed?
- Lowetide: What do the Edmonton Oilers still need to be a Stanley Cup contender?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
- Lowetide: Oilers begin rise from the depths during a stunning November
- DNB: Is it time the Edmonton Oilers expected more from Ryan McLeod?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse impressive in all areas after coaching change
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Philip Broberg reaches crossroads as NHL defenceman
- DNB: Four reasons why the Oilers are very much in the Western Conference playoff race
- DNB: Oilers must address goaltending situation before it’s too late
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers making a productive goalie trade is an expensive proposition
- DNB: Who is new Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch? These 3 traits define his approach
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: CAR, MIN, NJD, CHI, TBAY, FLA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 4-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-0, 12 points in 12 games
- Actual December results: 4-0-0, 8 points in 4 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 13-12-1, 27 points in 26 games
This run has a chance to be remembered for a long time. I say it for two reasons: First, because it was so badly needed. Second, because of the way it’s being done. Under control, and with strong offensive and defensive elements. God love the Edmonton Oilers, most of the previous models of this team were indifferent to defense and responsible decisions with the puck. There’s a new maturity to this team. The big question? Can these Oilers hold this style of game in their mind through the end of June? The team is in the final wildcard spot this morning, if you use winning percentage. Amazing.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner wasn’t busy but he did make several difficult stops during the game. He has recovered nicely now, his five-on-five save percentage over the last seven games is .924. It was .891 in the games before then, he is now at .904 for the season. I’m surprised at some of the takes about him. Skinner has save percentages at five-on-five (by year) of .916, .926 and now .904 this year. We all agree on waiting for the sample size to come in right? 20 games? Skinner is at 20 games now. He may not reach .916 because of the difficult start, and he isn’t Dominik Hasek, but he’s a fine goaltender who had a poor start in front of a wayward defense trying to figure out a brand new way. He’s good. I know he allowed the first goal last night, but that was a helluva shot by Connor Bedard.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are the top pairing in five-on-five minutes about as often as not these days. The pairing is 18-17 goals and average 14:14 a night. Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci average 13:44 per game, and own a 58 percent goal share (15-11) this season. Nurse is having his best season by eye. Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais play 9:24 a night and are 8-12 (40 percent) this year. The duo has a 60 percent expected goal share.
Connor McDavid is at 2.99 points-60 now, trailing only the exceptional Zach Hyman (3.04) Among forwards league wide, Hyman ranks No. 8, McDavid No. 11. Here’s a look at rankings among all Oilers regulars, with their “line designation” beside their names.
- Zach Hyman 3.04 (No. 8) (first-line forward)
- Connor McDavid 2.99 (No. 11) (first-line forward)
- Sam Gagner 2.55 (No. 44) first-line forward)
- Leon Draisaitl 2.24 (No. 79) (first-line forward)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.07 (No. 111) (second-line forward)
- Evander Kane 2.06 (No. 113) (second-line forward)
- Mattias Janmark 1.81 (No. 155) (second-line forward)
- Warren Foegele 1.79 (No. 162) (second-line forward)
- Derek Ryan 1.08 (No. 296) (fourth-line forward)
- Ryan McLeod 0.80 (No. 347) (fourth-line forward)
- Dylan Holloway 0.40 (No. 380) (fourth-lline forward)
- Connor Brown 0.24 (No. 384) (fourth-line forward)
The Big Five are all productive now, injuries and slumps and hammering goal posts have all evened out. If all five can stay about 2.00-60, Edmonton will be successful. I highlighted Sam Gagner, Mattias Janmark and Warren Foegele for fine work from (mostly) depth lines. The Oilers need more from Ryan McLeod, Dylan Holloway and Connor Brown.
I know much will be made of the “flip” of Draisaitl and McLeod, but I don’t see the future including Foegele and Janmark on Draisaitl’s wing. Evander Kane has been a productive player, so placing him on a depth line makes little sense. I can see Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele for sure. Connor Brown needs minutes and he’s coming from a long way back. I think his presence on a third line (Janmark-McLeod-Brown or Holloway-McLeod-Brown) may be in the future.
I think you give McLeod all year to find the range, not as certain Brown should get the same treatment but suspect both will as long as the wins keep coming.
Noon to 2pm on Sports1440, we’ll talk about a victory on a day Bruce McCurdy is a guest. The redoubtable member of the Cult of Hockey trio, McCurdy’s takes are always worth listening to. We’ll chat McDavid, the current roster, and what to do with Connor Brown and Ryan McLeod (if anything). Also a trip to California is planned on today’s show, we’ll see if we can make connections. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Are the Edmonton Oilers able to make a strong trade this season?
https://theathletic.com/5128626/2023/12/13/edmonton-oilers-trade-broberg-campbell/
So in one game last night Vilardi chalks up a 3rd of PLDs season point totals.
L.A. having to play NHL teams now and the skid is set to turn into a tumble and a half.
When they miss the playoffs I wonder if ownership will do what they should have done the second Blake kneecapped their team and fire his ass to the curb?
Players like Dubois are the most dangerous type in the NHL. GMs are dumb and fall for the ticker tape and don’t realize when they have a bust of JP proportions on their hands. $8.5 x 7 for 12 points… Nurse had 9 and is a +5 to PLDs -4, and TMac is running him 3rd line minutes.
2nd worst contract on the books after what that rancid deal Trelving handed out to Hubby. Speaking of Brad, I wonder if MLSE is looking nice and hard at how badly their bet on Shanahan has paid. At least everyone got to clap for Jammies getting his points on Long Island in a loss…
I’m not going to lie, and I hate saying this, because this blog has done nothing but enhance, enlighten and expose me to so much awesome and amazingness for things far beyond hockey, whether it be insights into life, love, music, whiskey, etc, etc… and so when I heard you say Bob Dylan called it a perfect song, the first thing I did was Google it and listen… and despite several tries, I just can’t like this song, let along love it, what am I missing? 🙈🙈🙈
I’m a sucker for anything with strings recorded at Capitol.
I would venture a guess that adult contemporary isn’t your thing, although at that time the track was likely perceived to be pop or country.
The song and arrangement is cinematic.
The juxtaposition of the lonely telecommunications professional who is necessary but adjacent to the social structure spoke to the record buying public of the time.
https://youtu.be/ohSrY6DOA2I?si=pbI75I5GCopklu6j
Bouchard with two secondary assists against Chicago, one 5v5 and one PP. His 5v5 teammates are the first PP minus Draisaitl add Ekholm. Very high-quality 5 man unit.
Bouchard will hit 100 points under Knoblauch/Coffey with an extra 10-15 points from secondary assists he wouldn’t get under Woodcroft, due to increased 5v5 time with 97,18 and 93.
I would think that Bouchard is going to get a massive extension, possibly before then end of next season. The timing of that extension and what happens with Draisaitl is very interesting. If they wanted to keep the price lower, it makes sense to me to extend sooner rather than later. What are the figures that the readers of this blog would predict? I see Draisaitl as a 13M AAV player. With the numbers Bouchard is going to easier put-up (100 points in each of the next two seasons) I think he’s a 10M AAV on an extension.
10 M would be regrettable. If that’s the ask should be looking to sell high which no Oiler GM has had the balls to do
One would think that Oiler fans would be over the moon if in two years Bouchard joined a two person club of Orr and Coffey.
The asinine views on this player will stick for his career.
Stunningly short sighted views they are.
Leon should ask for and receive 8 zeros over 8 years…
Thanks LT et al. I like to think my musical tastes cover most eras and genres but Glen Campbell remained a blind spot.
Chris Johnson reporting Ethan Bear poised to sign a two year contract with Washington.
Good for him. Hope that he does great in DC.
Same. Hope he crushes it
So I think I have finally figured it out. You gas light us with these ad nauseam “breaking news” postings so you can slip in anything you can find that may appear negative for the Oilers (in your BS opinion) so that you can deflect any trolling accusations?
I mean, Andrew ((as your protectors (burner accounts anyone???) around here like to call you when they are defending you. Trying to personalize you, doing their best to humanize you)), do you not understand. We see right through you.
To paraphrase Shakespeare, “an ignore button, an ignore button, my kingdom for an ignore button”.
I fed his posting characteristics into an AI and asked it to speculate about the psychological pathologies and conditions that would lead to this kind of behaviour. Here’s what the end result is:
1. **Personal Frustrations:**
– The individual may channel personal frustrations or challenges into negative online behavior.
2. **Need for Attention:**
– Seeking validation through disruptive actions, driven by a history of feeling overlooked.
3. **Social Isolation:**
– Using negative interactions online to combat feelings of social isolation or loneliness.
5. **Low Self-Esteem:**
– Diminishing others online as a means to cope with low self-esteem.
6. **Escapism:**
– Turning to online trolling as an escape from real-life challenges.
7. **Psychological Projection:**
– Criticizing the hockey team to deflect attention from personal shortcomings.
We may be on to something!
Seems to describe everyone here. Nothing wrong with an unhealthy dose of skepticism. If you’re a glass half full type, that’s ok too. That’s the dialectic of being an Oilers fan.
10 points out of the playoffs at American Thanksgiving is a helluva hole to climb out in the rest of the season, but since Morse started broadcasting game scores, who does it in less than 4 weeks?
What hath Connor wrought?
Oil 1 pt back from playoff spot with 2 games in hand.
8th in conference standings by pct.
2.75 pts/game (22 pts)
Points above Bettman .500 after the top 6
(post Thanksgiving change in parens)
+3 Predators (up 5)
+1 Oilers (up 8)
even Coyotes (up 1)
-1 Blues (down 4)
-2 Wild (up 1)
-3 Flames (down 1)
-5 Kraken (down 5)
-7 Ducks (down 6)
-8 Sharks (up 4)
-9 Blackhawks (down 2)
The rest of the month should be interesting.
6 of 8 games against teams with records above .500.
The easiest likely tomorrow against Tampa.
January much easier…in theory.
So you are saying that’s where the rubber hits the road?
I consider Holloway at 4C with Hamblin coming out – if Holloway was back tomorrow (i.e. current situation).
James is a good 12/13 forward but I don’t think he’s a must play, is he?
I dont know. This is a tricky. Good problem to have. I think its hamblin or gagner. Do we have to send someone down?
Yes but that’s easy – Adam Erne.
Although, now that I think about it, I would have to check to make sure this cap space when we lose Holloway’s LTIR reserves – they may need to send down two (although the Broberg for Gleason swap saved some that might make it possible to just send down one league min).
They’ve got $238k available now, so zero problem for Holloway to replace anyone on the roster (his AAV is only $150k over league min).
Thanks.
When Holloway comes back, I know I said earlier Hamblin, Brown are my first 2 scratches. But! I wouldn’t scratch anyone until they lose again. Keep Holloways rabid young legs pushing everyone in practice to keep their spot.
Rotate wingers with 91/29 until something clicks or they trade for Eberle lol.
Sure, I get that, I don’t necessarily disagree but also don’t fully disagree.
They do need to get Holloway “up and running” and the coach will want to get a real look at this player.
Not to mention that Gagner (and Ryan) shouldn’t play every night if we want him (them) to stay effective.
I understand not changing anything but I don’t think that, say, Hamblin, at 4C is the glue on the line and subbing in a faster, more aggressive Holloway would crush chemistry.
Holloway certainly needs to ensure he’s on the right side of the puck, not turn it over in transition and not make a bad line-change – I think he can do that in 8 minutes.
The stats line says that Skinner saved 5/5 HDSC. Are you telling me that Bedard’s goal wasn’t an HDSC?? WTF? My little brain still hasn’t been able to comprehend how he was able to shoot with that release/angle/accuracy. Great pass by Vlasic on the play as well.
Great players expand the ‘home plate’ definition of HDSC – Conner#1 has been doing that for a while.
Its this is NST – their assesment of high danger is solely where the shot came from, not considering and pre-shot puck movement, player taking the shot or the actual shot.
Bedard was outside the high danger zone wide is my guess (via their assesment).
Yes. But the regions are Sam Ventura’s.
A prime example why you can’t completely ignore the eye test when evaluating games. I’m a huge believer in the fancy stats, and check out NST after each game, but they can be deceptive if you haven’t viewed the game.
Bedard’s phenomenal shot is one example, as is the Carolina game. Watching the game you saw that the Oilers dominated from start to finish, but because the Hurricanes put the puck on net every chance they had — serving up some absolute muffins — their fancy stats really flattered them.
Yep. A human viewer has to decide high danger. Now i understand this pits bias on the table, but if the human viewers work together, you can limit bias.
The Oilers did have 60% of the HDCF against Carolina though (per NST). The shot clock was in Carolina’s favor, but shots are not ‘fancy stats’.
NST is definitely not perfect, but their HDCF did a hell of a lot better job capturing reality against Carolina than corsi or shots did.
Connor Bedard’s goal was scored from the Medium Danger Hextally region. These regions, used by Natural Stat Trick were established by War-on-ice.com, which was a website led by Sam Ventura and his doctoral advisor. Ventura is now a leading figure in hockey analytics and works for the Sabres.
Depending on the regression analysis, Medium danger attempts can be as valuable as high-danger. They are in the region just outside of the homeplate. They become statistically dangerous on the rush, particularly the odd-man rush, or on the cross-seam pass. The problem is that the score sheet cannot detect which plays in the medium danger region have higher probability, because the score sheet cannot record events like cross seam passes.
Nice winning streak, but no reason to rest on the laurels.
I think the lines could be better, but the coaching staff seems to be cementing them.
Hyman is a wonderful player in many respects, but is not the correct winger for McDavid. McDavid-RNH is a great pair. They feed off each other and are both whip smart. Hyman is more of a Hall-style player. He can drive any line and shamelessly shoots any chance he gets even though there are better opportunities to be had with a pass to a wide open teammate – which happened several times last night. McDavid could be producing even more if he had the correct winger.
Hyman should drive his own line with that rambunctious style while still getting 1PP.
Drai needs a little more speed and creativity on his line. He doesn’t match up well with Brown.
I would do this:
McDavid-RNH-Gagner
Draisaitl-Kane-Mcleod
Ryan-Janmark-Hyman
Hamblin-Brown-Foegele
I think we would get even more pop.
I don’t think there’s any will–even on the part of the player–to run Ryan at 3C. That pop might be the sound of a playoff bubble bursting.
Agreed
I can’t disagree with this more.
I was going to post the other day that Hyman is the perfect winger for McDavid. Their styles really seem to compliment each other. I have a hard time imagining how anyone could watch this 8 game winning streak and come to the conclusion that Hyman and McDavid aren’t a good thing.
Remember all those years of the revolving door that was trying to find McDavid a winger(Rattie?)?? Well the best free agent signing in team history solved that problem.
What an extreme value contract Zach has been.
Thanks for the rebuttle. I would counter that we may be viewing the current lineup through winning streak-coloured glasses. The results don’t have to bias what we see or decide.
An 8 game winning streak is a wonderful thing. I think going with “change nothing including underwear and socks” misses the opportunity to be critical and improve. Eventually we will lose again. Why not look to improve so we lose less? I’ve watched this for years now. I think McDavid needs a more creative winger and we will see him in a much more distant orbit than currently.
It was the same problem with McDavid-Hall. Not the right guy for McDavid, but a great player with his own style nonetheless.
I would also counter that many players could put up great numbers with McDavid and have. I’m not sure quoting Hyman’s stats playing with the best player in the world establishes a persuasive argument. Forget about the numbers. What do you see?
But this isn’t viewing McDavid/Hyman based on an 8-game winning streak, its based on actual results, which also meet the eye test, over 2+ seasons.
McDavid/Hyman are 100-61 goals in almost 1500 minutes together.
That’s a 62% goal share (and their expected goal share is 61%).
Exclude Leon and the results are almost identical, a 61% goal share and 61% expected goal share in almost 1100 minutes.
I would suggest, take away the now retired Perfection line and there is no duo in the NHL that exceeds these two over that type of sample size.
NHL coaches are loathe to change anything that is working for them, they will ride that pairing until it stops producing.
It’s an option for the blender when things start to go south again.
This is an odd statement for me given McDavid/Hyman have been nothing but spectacular together, by eye and number, every season.
I agree that while the players have their merits Holland hasn’t done well finding the right balance of wingers for the top 6 that the important talent would do better with. Sather didn’t take long (relatively) to find Wayne what he needed. Or make a killer 2nd line
I would also say that the only balanced pair on D is Ek-Bouch. Not that playing well they are bad, just not as good as might be
I get your line up but would say that Gagner and Ryan aren’t likely to play that much in key spots and keep it up. Neither have the natural speed. Also McLeod does not have good hands and isn’t aggressive enough to score, so I don’t see him as a solution. Ralph maybe because his shot is a weapon that a passer could use. And is aggressive to score
Without using the youth I’m not sure the right mix is there of players. So the coaches don’t differ much, except KK doesn’t own a Vita Mix
This is how you troll a blog HH you amateur
I gave you a +1, but it is because you used CLR.
lmao
From 2021-2023, Hyman and McD together are 100 GF – 61 GA.
During the same time, McD without Hyman is 70 GF – 70 GA.
Hyman without McD is 57 GF – 78 GA.
Hyman without McD and Drai (i.e. a proxy for Hyman driving his own line) 26 GF – 35 GA
Only one metric but these numbers suggest:
1) McD and Hyman are great together and have excellent chemistry.
2) It is unclear whether Hyman can drive a line alone. Remember, Hyman never scored more than 60 points before playing with McD.
Hmmm, those stats pose a strong argument against my theory. I remain unsure, but maybe Hyman is playing differently than he did in the past and I’m just seeing him differently? Or maybe this style of play actually works better than I think? Maybe the crisp pass to the wide open front player and top shelf sequence continuation in my head that could have happened with the opposition collapsing doesn’t actually happen.
I feel there is a more dangerous opportunity to be had when McDavid, Nuge, and Hyman have worked the puck around and the opposition is ragged and then the play ends with a low quality Hyman wrap around/turnover, muffin into the crest, or stickhandle into a defender who takes him out and the puck dribbles to the goalie.
But maybe something is actually working here in spite of those tendencies and he is still the best choice. However, I would strongly argue that he (and the line be extension) could be even better if he used more discretion with his shot selection.
I don’t think Holloway will have any trouble getting back into the line up. First, his knee needs to be 100%, and that might mean a conditioning stint.
From the puck drop off the first game he was the hardest working Oiler, and continued up to his injury. He was making a difference.
Contrast his low point production to others – at that time- and it’s much better comparison. He wasn’t scoring, nobody was scoring. Once the tide turned, Holloway wasn’t there to be part of it or I’m sure he would have picked up his share of points.
As pointed out by others, once the team is back up into the race, the idea isn’t about not changing any veterans due to winning. Use the winning to prep the youngsters.
As we have just witnessed, you need an entire team, and that is going to include the youth, and the extras.
For example, Broberg must be considered as part of the team as he plays in Bakersfield and should pop up for a series for NHL games. He must be kept ready.
Don’t think there is cap space for a conditioning stint. Unless we’re going skeleton crew…
Doesn’t Holloway still have waiver exemption? He could be sent down to Bake with no changes to the lineup in Edmonton. Or is there some weird situation where he’d need to be activated here first which means sending another player down first? Which I guess I’d just send down Erne then, activate Holloway, send Holloway down then recall Erne. No need to go back to skeleton crew.
Yes he’s exempt still according to CF
And I would send him down and have him play C. They don’t need LW, but could use a more offensive 3C. DH was a solid two way player before and there is no reason he can’t be now, other than no TOI
“Nurse is having his best season by eye. “
Have to agree. He seems to be playing a simple game and making the correct choice with and without the puck most times. Glad to see him playing well.
Having a very good or excellent Darnell is 1 of the requirements if this team is to win the Cup !
A lot of players seem to be playing within their strengths since the change. It is refreshing as the better play seems like it could stick, and they seem to be enjoying things which is key to not burning out
He made an interesting play last night. The Oilers turned the puck over down low after a spell of possession in the offensive zone. Nurse and Ceci were still manning the points, and Nurse made a long reach in to poke the puck off the Chicago player’s stick and disrupt the breakout, before tracking back.
It worked out, and it seems to be a move that plays to Nurse’s strengths – long reach and aggressive stick. I don’t know enough to say if that’s orthodox defenceman strategy, but it seemed a heady play that I’ve never noticed him make before.
Wonder if Coffey had a hand in that? Maybe a “hey, don’t try to be me, but be more like Kev Lowe was”?
Hamblin, Brown, Holloway, Ryan, Gagner, Janmark.
When Holloway comes back that would be my current scratch list in order. Subject to change with new information, produce or sit.
LOL… Holloway will have to work his way back into the lineup. He’s going to have to impress a new coach.
Yes, don’t see Mr 0.40 being gifted a spot in the lineup, like Broberg he will have to wait until there is an injury.
I can see Holloway being spotted in to the lineup – I’m sure KK wants to see first hand what kind of player he has to work with.
I agree. I think he’ll get a conditioning stint in Bakersfield and if all goes well, he’ll come back to Edmonton and get into the lineup fairly quickly. Up to him whether he stays in the lineup or not, of course.
He was the most consistent forward for the first month, no he didn’t score but neither did anyone else in the bottom-6.
I’m sure OP will chime in from AztecWorld to confirm one way or the other, but I don’t think we have the cap space for a conditioning stint.
He’s waiver exempt. He can be sent down with no cap consequences.
They can just send Holloway down (and lose his cap space) – he’s waivers exempt.
I think the new guys are going to like him
Yes, i was just thinking that Holloway at 4C for Hamblin makes sense to me.
For my eye, I am seeing the current coaching unit keeping player groups together throughout the game. i.e. Leon’s line does not get shuffled if they have a weaker period. KK get the lines/pairing on the ice according to the game plan, then the players figure out how to win the shift.
I also like the way the depth of 18 skaters is being use, vs the 97/29 show. 6 key forwards on the PK the PP2 getting more gravy time is part of building a complete team. This is all very good and how I think winning team gels and play better, longer.
I love seeing a PP2 thst actually gets some chances to go to work.
Nothing rhyming after pp1 gets solid opportunity- get them off. There’s more urgency this way to actually get hard to work. It’s also nice not seeing almost any tactically poor changes at end of pp if puck heads into oilers zone too quickly.
The added bonus that quite often what results in an easy posession change back in control on defensive end (as pk unit gets fully shifted out) often then has option of a rested mcdavid line coming onto ice in one of his most dangerous scenarios 5×5 – possessing puck in neutral zone in transition to entering offensive zone.
it was a very small sample size but i think there is chemistry with Janmark and Drai. I would run Kane-Drai-Janmark for awhile. Janmark is such a smart player. Thats what Drai needs.
Holloway is also coming back in the next 1-5 games (I believe) which will impact the middle six.
I’m not sure how you take Gagner out right now and, for all his struggles offensively at 5 on 5, Brown is too important on the PK (with Janmark) along with being the defensively responsively, in the right position in all zones, member of that 2nd line.
Holloway replacing Brown on the 2nd line doesn’t work as both he and Kane are pure left wingers. It could be Foegele at 2RW (coach likes him on RW) and Holloway/Brown as the 3rd line wingers.
Can they take Hamblin out? Gagner? Ryan? Janmark.
I don’t think any of the PK guys can be removed – its a MAJOR part of this run.
My guess is Hamblin or Gags comes out
Well, Holloway is a center by training, but I’m not sure that alters your point. To my knowledge he has never played RW for any significant stretch, although I do think his game would mesh well with Draisaitl, so maybe it’s worth a shot.
Holloway is going to have to play very well to replace one of (Brown,Janmark,Ryan,Foegele,Macleod,Hamblin or Gagner) He probably replaces Erne in the press box.
So, pick up where he left off then? Holloway currently leads all Oilers forwards in CF% and FF%, while being top-3 for SF%, xGF%, SCF% and HDCF%.
The real question is, why do you hate Dylan Holloway?
I don’t hate Dylan Holloway.
Erne clearly is the player out but I think Holloway absolutely goes in the lineup.
I would consider a 4C audition – yes, Hamblin can spend a night watching.
Yes, I know but he isn’t playing center on a line with Drai (it was really just saying, not a right wing option).
I think the answer is clearly Gagner who has been playing on his off-wing and likely isn’t viewed by the org as an everyday player. And then you get Gags in by load managing Ryan and others.
In 14 games Gags has 4 goals & 3 assists and is a +2.
He’s been very productive thus far.
In 14 games Hollywood has 1 goal and is a -3.
Not knocking Gagner’s season in fact I’ve been on Team Hobbit since he was added to the roster.
But, if you’re looking just at the scoring columns, you’re not seeing the full picture of productivity. Keep in mind, Gagner doesn’t play the number of minutes Holloway does, nor does he typically play the same level of comp. And as I point out above, Coach can still mix Gagner into the roster.
And this is a nice problem to have. We want players to be competing for spots and ice time.
Actually their ice time is very close and the level of competition is similar also. And yes competition is a wonderful thing.
Very hard to criticize KK here….but the insistence on playing Brown in the top 6 is frustrating.
Listen, I like Brown and I think his game has a chance to shine during playoffs. But he can’t be anywhere near a top 6 role.
But seeing someone with 0’ s playing with the best passer in the NHL is incredibly galling . It takes some serious hands to post 0’s.
His stick is an absolute graveyard for offensive plays.
They way that I see it is that they’re winning the games. The only way that Brown is going to recover his former skill is by playing with and against other skilled players. Management and coaching watch this guy every practice and game. They must have a better idea than we do about what he’s capable of.
When/if he recovers this will be a good investment. If he never gets his offensive skills back, that’s a shame.
But they’re winning the games anyway.
I am not sure Connor Brown has – ever- had the resume to be top 6 though….
His last 6 seasons before his injury: 36, 28, 29, 43, 35,39 points. Is that not enough for top 6? I think he could do even better on this team.
Sunk cost now. Holland overthought this contract
Well, we have already played 26 games now.
Not sure if he can do better. Turns 30 here soon as well.
His per 82 games scoring the 3 season prior to being injured was (2 of the 3 were Covid shortened where he played every game):
82 18-32-50
82 31-20-51
82 13-37-50
By any reasonable standard those were top 6 seasons.
That play from McDavid-Bouch-McDavid-Hyman in the 2nd was incredible, looked more like a soccer play than a hockey play. Didn’t cash.
Then nice to see McDavid go to the net aggressively on the PP and stare at Draisaitl while feeding it to Hyman when every person on the planet assumed it was going to Drai.
McDavid looking pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty sharp out there these days.
Loving the misdirection. It will make them impossible
It’s the D zone commitment and ruthless back checking that I love.
No idea what flipped – but some serious back checking is dramatically reducing rush chances against.
Leon had a great back check …maybe in the 2nd? Just put his head down, caught the guy and picked his pocket at the Oilers blue line and dumped it back out to Center. Those are the plays that will win Championships.
Yeah, saw that…..Leon has been picking some pockets on the back check lately.
Its a function of o-zone play.
When they are on, they trap teams in their own zone, cycle em down, tucker them out. Oppo teams resorts to chips, where standing up by same side dman, and a high forward allow a cross over from the opposite dman to pick the puck up and send it back. As a result strong blue line play is a lot easier, strong red line play is even easier than that. 2nd periods is where they flourish on this with the long change. If you can’t get that puck deep into the Oilers end its coming right back down your throat.
Excellent relentless offense is the best defense.
Earlier in the year they weren’t patient in the o-zone and unlucky. When patience wore thin the high forward would creep down too low. If all three get on the wrong side a jailbreak is easier to accomplish, if a dman misses a pinch you’re off to the races. They also couldn’t buy a goal off the rush which makes cheating on a cycle more likely.
I still have my concerns about the Zone D. I didn’t like the look of it against Minnesota and it nearly bit them again with New Jersey. Damn risky to give skilled players time with the puck and space to maneuver.
You can never be on offence for the whole game, though.
What you do when you don’t have the puck is the difference I am seeing with this team. By a large margin as well.
Cheating for offence has been our rep for sometime now.
The back checking has been improved. And the forward covering for a pinching dman. Hasn’t been any talk lately about a bad pinch by a dman because the forwards are doing their jobs and covering. Plus, when they’re back checking, they’re actually picking up an uncovered man. Seems like the dmen have been instructed to let the forward coming back who to go to. Better communication by all is getting everyone covered and not having two guys covering the same guy.
Why would you ever want to sit Janmark, fast, smart, pk witch, doesn’t cheat for offence, best look elsewhere to get Mr. 0.40 in the lineup.
EDIT, I guess nobody was suggesting sitting him, just moving him down to the 4th line.
I think LT suggested benching him for Lavoie earlier this season and I was like, “Wut?” I love Janmark. He reminds me of a no-shot MPS that can actually play all the other dimensions of the game.
Lions<49ers (sigh)
Hey, this is the most successful season for Detroit since I don’t know when. It’s something to build off and they’re really only a couple of pieces away. And anything can happen in the playoffs. Need to get that experience. You have to like what they’re doing there and the Stafford for Goff switcheroo looks inspired right now. Better than drafting Young or trading for Deshaun Watson, for eg.
And you have a coach that isn’t off the dreaded Belichick tree and who unlike McCarthy or Sirianni, actually knows what he’s doing on the field.
That equation you posed is true for at least 28-29 teams. But a new culture has been implemented. There’s stability in the org. Job now is to add talent. You’re going to lose your OC, so you’ll get an extra draft pick, that can be a good thing. Replacing coaches under Shanahan and accumulating picks has been one of the keys to the Niners’ success.
With the Eagles looking tired and hurt and with the resurgent New York football Giants in their way… and considering Dallas finally plays some real opposition this last month, there’s a real opportunity for the Lions to end up NFC second seed.
I still believe Lavoie should be playing in the NHL. Janmark is playing well, but there has to be room for Holloway, Lavoie and Broberg. Lavoie is playing well in Bakersfield, there’s plenty of opportunity for him to play in the next while. Janmark is a smart veteran, but so is Derek Ryan and so is Sam Gagner. Lavoie is the future, or not, Oilers need to find out. I don’t think Lavoie’s audition time with Edmonton is over, and if Janmark has to sit because Gagner or Ryan are playing better, then so be it.
Sure does seem like there’s a natural fit for him at 2RW.
The vets are playing well. Don’t fix it if it isn’t broken.
Actually that’s the advantage of having guys like Ryan, Janmark and Gagner. They don’t need to play every game to be successful. They can jump in and out of the lineup as needed and still bring their A game for 10-12 minutes per night.
When you are already playing youth in Desharnais and Hamblin and Skinner and Holloway (when healthy) there is no rule that says there HAS to be room for Lavoie. The org is already playing a lot of youth. You do not force more youth onto the roster when Stanley is THE most important goal.
Can you imagine not winning the Cup or not making the playoffs due to over-playing youth (well, we had to see what we had) and thus losing 29 and 97? What would that do to the future of the roster? Add all the more developed Lavoies you want, it would still be dismal.
He has to force the team to make room for him with his play in the A and then again in the Bigs when injury affords him the opportunity. Of course, his audition with the team isn’t over. Why would it be? Teams are far more patient than fans. He’s had some tastes of the NHL now. That’s a good thing. Means when injury gives him a longer look, he’ll be more ready for it. And it will be injury that determines who comes out for him.
Same is true for Broberg,
Two coaches now seem to disagree with your philosophy here. I can’t see any NHL coach playing Lavoie over Janmark in the present situation.
The Oilers need the youth ready for the playoffs when the injuries bite. They failed to get Holloway and Lavoie ready last year when the injuries hit. They ended up playing banged up guys.
Yes and if Holloway can be a centre I would love to see them try it. He’s got more pop than McLeod. The McLeod can lead a more checking focused 4th, and switch with Holloway depending on who is cold
Let’s secure a playoff spot first. There will be mid season injuries and their chance will come.
I think this is inaccurate. All their playoff years, especially under Woody, they were able to manufacture long stretches of responsible play into the playoffs. This team looks a lot like the one that went on the nine game win streak last season.
We will know they’ve reached a new level of maturity if they don’t start next season like newborns, and re-start this process again, like they’ve had to nearly every year of McDeity. That’s the maturity hump they have to overcome now (plus the Stanley hump), before we can say they’ve achieved a new level. This mid-season resurrection they’ve done before and more than once (which is why I was one of the unworried early in the season and recognized the risks of the coaching change).
I would say though that KK strikes me as a little more mature than Woody. Just in demeanour. Maybe just quieter and less visibly cocksure. I don’t interact with either coach so I coud be off-base and don’t want to carve anything into stone here, but perhaps that’s what you’re seeing?
I believe they’ve always felt they could out-talent their mistakes, or players outside the core could rely on McDrai to magically win games.
They had to start the season on the precipice of disaster to have them all realize it’s a team game first.
This is different imo. Woodcroft was expert and hiding his weak defensive pair(s) and overusing Nurse-Ceci or others. Currently the top two pairs are playing about equal minutes and (I suspect) about equal qual comp.
Additionally, the new confidence shown by Vincent Desharnais means the third pair is executing at a higher level.
Finally, there is buy in from the forwards. Even the players who have some wobble are working hard, and the decision by Knoblauch to run four lines is not hurting the team in the short term (they’ll need some upgrades).
The Oilers have calm feet and are taking an extra millisecond to make a pass. I don’t know who gets credit, doesn’t really matter. It’s rare rare rare to see an Oilers team with this much confidence and structure.
Yeah I agree LT. Couple of plays – Bouch in the first coming up aggressively to the blueline and then going up to the Hawks d-man, while a forward pinches down low to cover for him. Kulak in the OZ forechecking and helping set up Gagner’s goal.
The first period was pretty loosey goosey indeed and they need to lock that down because they were lucky to come out of there with the lead.
Well put….
Once Ekholm arrived last season, Woody did the same with his pairings. Everyone on the team worked just as hard after New Years last year as they are now playing this year. Goals against came down drastically. Bouchard looked like calm and like a god. None of this is new to the team. And we were saying the exact same things then you’re saying today: “This team is different now.”
And yet they opened the season with the exact same indifference to D they’ve shown in the past and then succumbed to the pressure the losses placed on them.
Until the players fix these indifferent starts to the season–and we can’t know now till next season–they have not matured. Maybe the crisis of this season was the final lesson they needed. But they still need to prove it, and we won’t know till puck drop 2024-25.
I can’t blame the players for Woodcroft being outcoached in the playoffs, then turning up at training camp with a brand new defence system that hampered the player’s ability to play the freaking game of hockey.
Then, when it clearly wasn’t working Woodie was incapable of adapting his own lousy system. This is what got him the sack.
KK and Coffey enter, tell the players to relax and instantly give them a realistic scenario with which to play the game again; and also stopped relying on McDavid + Draisaitl like a crackhead managing their very last rock.
McDavid could have gone to Woody in private and said “I want Eichel”.
https://youtu.be/oeBHiJeshcg?si=WWGvFMGHBwBvQjoE&t=200
In my view, the entire discussion about changing up systems is completely overstated. They went back to a zone based defensive system, which most of these guys have been playing since they were in Atom. I think they finally decided to bear down in their own end. I think the new coaches have made some tweaks, but the players themselves seem to have decided that being stout in their own end is worth it.
For me while they played very well I to the playoffs they often had luck helping them out, and the PP his an offensive game plan that didn’t work – the constant issues outscoring 5v5
I had been commenting about it well before the playoffs, that if they didn’t get better generating better HDSC at evens they would be in trouble the playoffs. The Knights exposed the weaknesses, the PP didn’t carry the day when it came down to brass tacks. The goalies weren’t good but there were plentiful huge breakdowns
There are tactical differences and I think this coaching group has a better handle on managing people. That they so quickly became a team we haven’t really seen before for me is more than simply the coaching change
As has been mentioned today the play without the puck is remarkably different. Maybe they regress, I won’t be surprised if it sticks
Dozen Losses To Catch Vegas
I’m looking for two things: Can Edmonton keep their post winning streak losses to pre winning streak loss levels (12) thereby losing half their games within the first 1/5 of the season? And what would then need to happen to catch Vegas and likely de facto win the Conference / Division?
If Edmonton can continue at 44-12 (.785) they will finish with 115 pts
Vegas would need to continue at 35-17 (.673) to finish with 115 pts
Likely? No. Unpossible? Neither.
With respect, Vegas aren’t going to be catchable. They’re probably going to win the President’s trophy.
Vancouver on the other hand…
They are catchable by the metrics provided above. I will continue to watch until that’s formally a big fat 0 chance.
I’d like to put LA up as a possible President’s Trophy candidate.
Their goal diff while having so few GA is concerning for us. If Talbot doesn’t implode they’ll be a tough opponent
I have a feeling the coach has a ton of patience with Connor Brown. There’s a familiarity. As long as he continues to contribute defensively and on the PK the scoring will come. No worries.
Man, Brown did everything on the kill but score the shortie last night. Woulda got TWO Brownie badges to sew on his Brownie uniform. First goal and the shortie.
KK has the luxury of the win streak. He can say that it ain’t broke so don’t fix nuthin. Or now that they’re back in playoff contention, he could easily use the breathing room to toy with the lines.
I think we’re likely to see stretches now, maybe a game, maybe just within the game like last night where we see Brown go down with McLeod. The problem with it is the coach would be uniting the two offensive black holes with each other. Because of that, I don’t see 71-28 being anything long term.
You could move Gagner to that 71-28 line to give it some offensive skill, but then you lose a lot of speed. But other than foot speed, he’s the kind of player that would work better for Brown goals than Kane does. Nuge is a faster version of Gagner, but you don’t really want to take him off an incredibly successful first line either (nor spread the 1st unit PP over three lines).
But it will come. And hopefully it’s a floodgate for the player. Takes so much to come back from an injury like that, you’d like to see the player rewarded for his perseverance.
Can’t he do that from the 3rd line though?
I don’t see him playing on the third line…yet.
That Bedard kid is the goods. Incredible shot but he was also smart with the puck during the game.
First period was a hiccup but the second and third were move of what I’ve become accustomed to.
Watching the Oil firing on all cylinders is amazing to watch! Connor flying. Drai got his boots moving last night. Sublime Nuge. Hyman driving the net. Bouch smoothness in both zones. Nurse and Ekholm are erasers. Skinner calm and aware. It was all good.
My favourite line to watch is Gags. I love how they play smart and within themselves. They don’t try to beat you with foot speed. They beat you with smarts and puck speed. Slow down the play then, bam, they speed it up for a quick chance. Those guys let the puck do all the work and it’s so fun to watch. Glad Hamblin gets to learn from them.
i think my favourite thing last night was seeing the team settle back into the good habits, after a somewhat loosey-goosey 1st period.
Lather, rinse, and repeat.
Agreed. At the start of the year they would come out guns blazing, get chances but no goals. Then get scored on and fall to pieces.
This game they got scored on, opened it up to get two then clamped it down and gave them nothing in the last two periods. A very mature response and one that bodes well for future tough games.
Chicago had more shots in the first 20 minutes (14) than they did in the last 40 (just 9). A few momentary glitches here & there but the Oilers broke out the puck with patience & didn’’t hurt themselves with high-risk passes in the o-zone. A long way from their best game but they didn’t beat themselves, they just worked the clock.
“Can these Oilers hold this style of game in their mind through the end of June”
This is how they will play now. Ingrained in their DNA. By rote. Mature hockey.
McDavid and co have reached a new level of enlightenment.
I concentrated on Connor Brown last night (albeit from high up) to see if I could decide if he is worth the wait. Lots of good work defensively, especially on the PK, and some good offensive chances.
In the offensive zone he is just ripping it on net trying to get off the schneid and foregoing good set-up opportunities. The team is winning, and with no viable options to replace him in the lineup, I would reluctantly keep him in but on a 3rd or even 4th line.
Watching him closely I believe he will be a valuable player come playoff time (scoring or not) as a defensive specialist similar to Janmark.
He gotta score soon, though, or he’s gonna start getting the Puljujarvi treatment(heads to the sky, heads shaking, shrugs, ect…) with his flubs. He is a play killer and offensive black hole right now. His skating looks good and he’s got good defensive awareness but on offense he’s lost. He’s doing the “thinking” thing and not the “reacting” thing.
Geez. Now that I read what I wrote, I think I said almost the exact same thing about Puljujarvi last year…
I wouldn’t say he’s lost offensively; his chances just aren’t going in right now. His good defensive play is a good fit with Kane & Draisaitl, and his PK work has been superb.
He’s certainly better than Jesse.
i would put Gagner there and Brown to fourth line
Gagner and Ryan can split the time with Draisaitl.
I have a feeling Bedard scoring is going to feel like our Connor blowing past defenders like saloon doors. Goalies shouldn’t feel too bad about that, especially when you’ve never seen it before.
Guy barely moves his arm and its off like a rocket. Yakupov’s laser but 10K% more accurate. How do you even set up for that.
Saw Bouch watched the film and did the right thing a few times. Don’t let him shoot!
Man that was a shot for the ages! No blame goes to the Principal on that one. And yes, Bouch did the right thing, hit this smallish NHL forward (5-10 / 185) at all times!
Even though Nurse/Ceci played the most against Bedard, I noticed Bouchard make 3 really good defensive plays on him 1vs1. Erasing him as you say. Knocked him down once, just got in his way and tied up his stick and a nice poke check.
Was at the game and what a difference from the last one I was at. The D is night and day improved. The team started slow but levelled off and played a solid game. Beddard did not get much space all night ( poor kid really has no help at all. Chicago is really bad) But his snipe was a doozy.
Different opponent on Thursday and the gang definitely needs to be on it right from the start .
Witchita Lineman and Galveston are 2 of my fav’s from Glenn Campbell
Agreed ….night and day difference on D
May I ask, what was the previous game you attended?
As a violinist in a Midwestern orchestra, we do our share of concerts with non-Classical headliners. 23 years, ago, one of the very first ones I ever played was with Glen Campbell and he did that song. I definitely didn’t appreciate it enough back then, but now, that song captivates me.
Just recently, a local sibling trio, Girl Named Tom, won The Voice in the States, and one of the songs they did was Wichita Lineman. For three kids in the early 20s, they did an amazing job with that song; we just premiered their first orchestra show. In retrospect, kind of a Connor meets Connor sort of moment. They’re (he’s) not there yet, but they’ve (he’s) got a great shot at it.
I love this story! Thanks for sharing. I collect songs about songwriters and one of the most impressive was Jimmy Webb (who wrote Wichita Lineman and many other classic songs). Won a Grammy at 21.
Rick Beato had a fantastic interview sesh with Mr. Webb a few months back, highly recommend:
https://youtu.be/j8pRKAgMaP4?si=IVAr041Cc6gu5SZO
Everybody who appreciates music can learn from Rick Beato.
Thanks great interview.
Here is the clip from The Voice. I believe they have a full-length version of the song on YT too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPUNAY9L_Zs
Great story!
Thanks for sharing. You’re one of the lucky ones! Finding orchestral work isn’t easy.