Kerplunk

Re: wondering what happened to Leon, I’ve wondered the same. I recognize XGF% is imperfect in a lot of ways, but if you match GF and underlying GF% pre and post-coaching change, you’ll see a definite issue.

On Draisaitl and outscoring/playdriving, let’s correctly identify the problem: It hasn’t been an all-year problem. It’s been a problem since the coaching change, when a determination was made to get McDavid “right” by giving 97 Nuge, Hyman, Bouchard, and Ekholm pretty much constantly at even-strength…which, indeed, is an amazing 5-man unit.

But let’s look at Draisaitl’s “before/afters” (data courtesy National Hat Trick, cause that’s what I have now); I looked at pairings (not just Ekholm or Nurse as proxy for Nurse/Ceci and Ekholm/Bouchard given issues Woodguy (on Twitter) pointed out last year re: Drai/Ceci).
First 13 games of the year, 5 on 5:  
·      Draisaitl, sans McDavid, 8-9 GF, but 68.72% XGF
·      In those games, Draisaitl spent 76 minutes total and about 6:23 ice time per game with Bouchard and Ekholm and about 59 minutes with Ceci/Nurse (4 minutes per game).
·      Draisaitl spent 43 minutes with Nuge, with absolutely gaudy numbers in everything but GF (50% GF), and like everything else at the time, a terrible PDO.
 
Since the coaching change, 5 on 5:  
·      Draisaitl, sans McDavid, is 4-8 GF, and more concerning, outshot, outchanced, and with terrible XGF numbers of 47% (this is a DROP OF MORE THAN 20% from his 68% XGF% at the start of the year, and this is NOT related to NOT playing with McDavid – he was at 68% sans 97 before and is now 47% XGF sans McDavid!).
·      Draisaitl solo has spent 99:10, or 6:36 per game with Nurse-Ceci, with terrible underlying numbers and actual GF/GA numbers of 1 GF to 5 GA. McDavid solo has spent 30 minutes with Nurse-Ceci (3-2 goals, 60% XGF%), and only 1:59 per game with Nurse-Ceci.
·      Draisaitl solo now gets Bouchard-Ekholm for 2:21 per game (50% GF, 1-1 GF, 64% XGF), while McDavid solo gets Ekholm-Bouchard for 7:27 per game (50% GF 7-7 GF, 72% XGF).
·      Draisaitl has spent less than 30 seconds per game with Nuge.

Some observations:
·      BUT BUT “Nurse-Ceci-Draisaitl” are deployed as “shutdown” against the other’s team best – that impacts their numbers negatively.
o  That approach didn’t work against Eichel in the 2023 playoffs.
o  It still doesn’t work.
o  It also doesn’t matter – the results are so bad that it is deployment that is going to lose the team games it needs to win.
o  Ekholm-Bouchard regularly take on top competition, and aren’t slaughtered.
 
 Why can’t Leon “outscore” and “drive play” since the coaching change?
o  Draisaitl’s non-McDavid playing time has replaced Nuge with Connor Brown or Mattias Janmark. (When I write that down, does it suddenly make sense why the second line isn’t doing that well?)
o  Draisaitl went from 7 minutes a game with the team’s best (only true?) playdriving defense pairing to a mere 2 minutes a game with that pairing, while now spending the bulk of his time with the defensive pairing least capable of driving play—and, for whatever reason that I’m not smart enough to figure out, but it seems obvious it doesn’t work and the coaching staff should stop trying to fit square pegs into round holes—with whom he just doesn’t “gel” well.
o  Draisaitl, with Nurse and Ceci, and with at least one winger on his line who is more properly deployed in the bottom six, has not been outscoring.

The 5-man McDavid-led, Bouchard-Ekholm backed super-unit has been great, but it alone is not a championship team. And there’s not a point to having Leon Draisaitl if you’re not going to give Leon Draisaitl appropriate support. (I watched Jaromir Jagr get a team to the playoffs every year in the late 90s and never win another championship because he never had proper support.) The Oilers actually have Leon Draisaitl for their Connor McDavid, the way the Penguins had Jaromir Jagr for Mario Lemieux, but they’re not presently giving Draisaitl anything resembling proper support.

BUT….We can’t just break up the the McDavid first line/five man unit!

Actually, given the actual results post coaching change, you can probably split the Bouchard-Ekholm time with McDavid and Draisaitl at least a little more equally with little effect on McDavid’s trio at even strength and great potential gain for Draisaitl’s trio. The fact that McDavid can still outscore with Nurse/Ceci and Drai can’t at present says that’s the easiest fix and doesn’t require tinkering with any forward lines. Data tells you any potential loss from less McDavid time is probably a net win with less Nurse-Ceci-Drai time.

In the past, Nuge has been given as a winger to either 97 or 29 whenever one of McDavid or Drai were a tad “off” or “not themselves.” It’s not a permanent fix. But it’s certainly one that you do if your second-best player is regularly getting outchanced and outscored and needs a re-set. Who knows, maybe you discover two strong outscoring lines driven by two pairs are better than one amazing 5-man unit that you can always revert to if needed to win a game or playoff series.

But right now, it seems very clear the Oilers made every effort to fix McDavid, and he appears like himself again. But Draisaitl –who seemed fine, aside from PP finishing early in the year—now seems way off? What’s changed is pretty simple and starkly obvious: his non-McDavid linemates and the defensive pairing is line is most frequently deployed with.
If you all think Draisaitl isn’t as good as McDavid yet somehow expect him to get better results than McDavid did with similar help – McDavid went 0-3 goals with Kane and Brown in 20 minutes under the former coaching staff before that coaching staff decided “no more of that,” while the present coaching staff had Draisaitl endure 88 nminutes of it clearly not working with those same wingers (the team was winning due to McDavid’s unit going globetrotter, so who cared it was obviously not working?)— Draisaitl may need to “play better,” but he’d be in a lot better position to “play better” if he had even a little of the 4-man support McDavid now has. 

I get not wanting to break up the dominant 5-man unit, but with Draisaitl’s results at this level, I question if the Oilers can make the playoffs, and I doubt they’re doing anything if they’re getting to the playoffs – you’re certainly not winning 4 rounds if Drai’s line can’t outscore. And if trades aren’t coming short-term – it may simply need to be “way less Nurse/Ceci time” for Draisaitl’s trio, and maybe at some point Drai needs a couple of games with Nuge to “get right” again so he can go back to playing better with lesser wingers.

But the vitriol I’ve seen directed at Draisaitl, and the kind of mistake made yesterday on the the third goal, freezing with the puck on his stick, shows me an elite player who’s way in his head and isn’t being put in the best position to succeed and probably needs at least a small dosage of the same help the organization rightfully gave to McDavid earlier in the season when he needed help (here, you’re not looking like yourself, 97; here are Nuge, Hyman, Bouchard, and Ekholm as your new even-strength playmates). 

And…let me just state that playing with Nurse/Ceci isn’t giving you the best of Leon, in case the data and eye test aren’t making that glaringly obvious. I lived for years in Pittsburgh with coaches who desperately wanted to make things work by putting Kris Letang with a “defensive defenseman” to “cover” for him, when Letang consistently and actually played his best with a partner who was capable of moving the puck because Letang could trust that partner (Letang played his best with prime Paul Martin and prime Brian Dumoulin, both no slouches defensively but in no way prototypical defensive defensemen with minimal puck skills). Coaches may want Nurse/Ceci to work with Leon because it “should”—but when something doesn’t work, it doesn’t work, and insisting it “should” when it doesn’t is the path of insanity (and lots of goals against, unfortunately).
 
And as an outsider, I can’t help but note that McDavid was given all the best help to “fix” him when he wasn’t right, but that Leon—who wasn’t in need of “fixing” under the previous regime’s deployment offensively or defensively, beyond finishing — is suddenly in need of “fixing” post coaching change, and there’s mostly just been chatter he needs to play “better” with little acknowledgment that it’s not just 29’s present wingers but also his primary defensive pairing support that aren’t exactly presently putting the team’s second-best player in the best position to be successful.