Edmonton Oilers fans are familiar with highly touted prospects failing to make the NHL grade. Every club in the league has misses, and luck is the main currency in development of players outside the top-10 overall. Still there are established best practices for prospect development and one of them is playing time.
The current Bakersfield Condors season is somewhat mystifying. While the deployment of the defensemen is textbook, the forwards are not aligned in a traditional development model. Why are the Condors best forward prospects playing depth minutes? Ladies and gentleman, I have the Eric Rodgers estimated icetime for this year’s Condors. It’s pretty amazing.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- New DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: How much has Oilers trading prospects and picks actually hurt?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner takes blame as goaltending leads to end of Oilers’ win streak
- Lowetide: Are the Edmonton Oilers able to make a strong trade this season?
- Lowetide: 3 young Edmonton Oilers prospects looking for full-time duty
- DNB: Calvin Pickard’s play and improved defending give Oilers time to make a goalie trade
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 4 most famous midseason demotions in franchise history
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard has the points. But is his recent defensive uptick legit?
- Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, real needs
- DNB: Oilers’ Philip Broberg seeking trade, per source: Why he could be on the move
- DNB: The Oilers penalty kill has finally found its groove. What’s changed?
- Lowetide: What do the Edmonton Oilers still need to be a Stanley Cup contender?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
CONDORS DEFENSE
The current deployment of the defense is as one would expect from a capable group who bring a range of skills. In these estimates (my sincere thanks to Eric Rodgers, who has done this for us since 2010), there’s a logic to the handling of this group.
Philip Broberg is the best player on the defense, the eye test tells us as much. He gets the big ice time at even strength and is delivering a 69 percent goal share in the discipline.
One item that could raise an eyebrow if one was interested in winning all the games? Cam Dineen-Max Wanner is the top pairing by combined minutes played. That tells me the coaching staff is giving a push to rookie Wanner. The results show that pairing is the only one under 50 percent, but the coaching staff is sending them out there. That’s good! That’s what a sound development team should be doing. The Condors (and Oilers) will see results in the back half of the year, and beyond.
Phil Kemp is having a good year, and I like watching Noel Hoefenmayer play the game. I think the organization could trade a defenseman from this group and still have enough left over to compete. It’s an area of strength at this time.
CONDORS FORWARDS
This is not a textbook development model on display. There are real concerns with the prospect deployment among young Condors forwards right now.
First, let’s deal with the veterans. I’ve long been a fan of Seth Griffith, but his role as the team’s top RW is unwise at this point in his career. He’s bleeding goals, and Rodgers’ estimate has the even-strength time over 300 minutes now.
Lane Pederson is the best center on the team by some margin. I’m baffled by his linemates, they include Drake Caggiula and the impressive Cameron Wright. Caggiula is a veteran and Wright is on an AHL deal. Are the Oilers developing AHL players so they can sign with other NHL teams? Is there a plan to sign Wright to an NHL deal? He’s 25, so I think it fair to suggest his outer marker as a pro hockey player is on display. It’s curious to me.
The Raphael Lavoie minutes are about right, I’d run him in the Seth Griffith spot but the estimates are good and Lavoie is productive in those minutes.
Xavier Bourgault’s 12:49 estimated minutes per game is low. He is in his second season and should be on a more prominent line. When he was on the top line at the beginning of the year, Bourgault was productive.
My suspicion? I believe the Oilers have soured on Bourgault. That doesn’t mean they’ll trade him for a load of hay, but does mean the organization isn’t doing the obvious thing (play him with Pederson as his center) to get him going offensively. We’ll see. The Oilers don’t have miles of prospects to throw away anymore, and Bourgault is a talented player.
This is a good spot to mention that players who are good at suppressing shots and goals, like Bourgault, tend to get squeezed a little in icetime estimates. He’s a good two-way winger. I think he may have more actual minutes. The quarrel remains despite that possibility, and with due respect to Greg McKegg, a more dynamic center for Bourgault is the play.
All of the other Oilers prospects are playing depth minutes. It doesn’t work for young prospects. They need to play. If I was Matvey Petrov, I’d ask to be sent to the ECHL. Getting more ice time is key. He could spend plenty of time at even strength, maybe get some power-play time and then force his way up to Bakersfield in more of a feature role.
This edition of the Bakersfield Condors isn’t terribly interesting or creative. That’s no crime. Not playing prospects who are developing? That’s not conducive to developing NHL players. The AHL coaching staff is telling the procurement department they have failed. The only question? Does upper management concur? These estimates suggest the answer is yes as it concerns the forwards in Bakersfield.
At noon, Sports 1440, we hit the ground running on a busy week for the Oilers. Rachel Doerrie from Staph and Graff podcast and Jason Gregor will be our feature guests, we’ll have the latest Oilers rumours and Declan Krueger’s Mamma MMA segment. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
https://theathletic.com/5143836/2023/12/18/edmonton-oilers-nhl-mcdavid-draisaitl/
No they dont. Lack of depth was exposed more than anything vs Vegas in the playoffs. The depth and structural play was the difference (so many cross ice passes, screened/tipped shots and mid zone turnovers) and the result was a diminished save % from giving up too many quality chances. Knoblauch seems more astute at adjusting the lines (vs loading up 29/97 each time).
Kulak + 2nd for Vejmekla (his stock is way down)
3rd, 3rd + Ceci for Tanev
1st + Foegle for Jenner (retained)
Chips in!
“What is that 12 hands in a row ? Holliday you son of a bitch ain’t nobody that lucky.”
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Wo7_0286E7E
I would suggest that the Oilers had depth in the playoffs but the coaching staff refused to trust them enough for the minutes earned.
The Foegele/McLeod/Ryan line was very good and could have taken on some tougher minutes freeing up Drai’s line. Kostin could have played more than 4-5 minutes in certain games, etc.
I guess what we have to ask is how did Woodcroft to get the team to FINALLY be over 50% without McDavid last year with a similar roster?
Brown is a problem, yes, but has Kane fallen off a cliff?
Kanes injury has been a problem. Hes hurt again too? Brown should improve here but ya…
Woodcroft got better goaltending last year. The Oilers are still near the top of the league in xGF%. This year Woodcroft seemed ok but the goalering sewered it. So its not all bad. Just not easy to fix it given where they sit from a cap/asset standpoint.
My trade suggestions are likely a pipe dream btw 🙂
I say whatever or however he’s doing now, you want Kane for the postseason.
Great article LT
It’s too bad something didn’t happen to change what many saw coming with the cap. The little and larger overpays, overpaying assets out, retaining players that weren’t key players and were too expensive, have come home to roost
Can’t ice a full roster, not enough depth. I deeply and truly hope we get a shit hot progressive GM next go round
They sure do. But what an interesting progression:
15-16
ON- 51%GF 55%xGF
OFF 42%GF 47%xGF
16-17
ON- 62%GF 56%xGF
OFF 49%GF 47%xGF
17-18
ON- 57%GF 55%xGF
OFF 42%GF 49%xGF
18-19
ON- 51%GF 48%xGF
OFF 40%GF 47%xGF
19-20
ON- 52%GF 48%xGF
OFF 44%GF 49%xGF
20-21
ON- 57%GF 57%xGF
OFF 43%GF 45%xGF
21-22
ON- 59%GF 59%xGF
OFF 47%GF 47%xGF
22-23
ON- 55%GF 58%xGF
OFF 52%GF 51%xGF
23-24
ON- 51%GF 61%xGF
OFF 43%GF 56%xGF
I guess one noteworthy thing there is that the 23-24 season has the #1 and #2 largest deltas between GF% and xGF%.
Not related to the article, I noticed the shift from an “above expected” to a “below expected” goals team the last two seasons with McDavid. I would guess this is mostly Hyman and Kane who are both volume shooters.
Hyman posts a large number of expected goals, which are over-estimated by the Natural Stat Trick model (the Money Puck model is a bit better for his style). Draisaitl is an above-expected shooter.
The increase has been about 0.3 xGF60 per season since Hyman has joined, an entire (!) xGF60 5v5 since ‘20-‘21. During this time team GF60 has not increased and is slightly less (2.52 in ‘20-‘21 vs 2.49 ‘23-24).
The Oilers shoot a lot more and score a little less.
I do think it has had a psychological effect and it does seem to be a different approach.
Foegele also drives the “below-expected” equation. As does poor goaltending and lower on-ice SV%.
Hmmm. I’m seeing mostly an increase in everything since Hyman/Kane/Woodcroft became Oilers (the latter 2 mostly coinciding).
The Oilers last 150 games (since Kane joined the teams their numbers are:
52.2%GF 54.2%xGF
(2.83/2.59 G/60 and 3.00/2.54 xG/60)
The previous 169 games (the rest of the Holland era) their numbers are:
48.5%GF 49.6xGF
2.50/2.67 and 2.36/2.40
Increases in roughly 4% for goals and xGoals (though a bit larger jump in xGoals).
Definitely not empty calories, as I feel like you’re suggesting. And in the larger sample there’s not an inversion of GF>xGF to GF<xGF.
GF% is dragging xGF% in the more recent 150 game segment, but that’s attributable entirely to this seasons first 28 games (the 122 games before that featured a 53.6%GF and 53.3%xGF).
The Oilers have moved to a below expected team. It’s right there in your data set. Shots and expected goals have increased disproportionately to goals 5v5.
‘20-‘21
xGF% 49.78
xGF60 2.31
XGA60 2.33
GF% 49.78
GF60 2.52
GA60 2.54
’21-‘22
xGF% 51.84
xGF60 2.68
xGA60 2.89
GF%51.13
GF60 2.73
GA60 2.61
’22-‘23
xGF%53.67
xGF60 2.95
xGA60 2.54
GF% 53.20
GF60 2.91
GA60 2.56
‘23-‘24
xGF% 57.78
xGF60 3.33
xGA60 2.43
GF% 46.22
GF60 2.49
GA60 2.89
Oilers are 11.56% below expected in goals differential, and 0.84 GF60 below expected this season. In ‘20-‘21 they were at expected.
Since ‘20-‘21 xGF60 has increased 0.81 xGF60. GF60 has increased 0.03.
And yes, right now there are a lot of empty calories.
The difference in the numbers presented is how we consider this season and if we include it together with the previous two or not. xG have generally increased disproportionately to G.
I started reading, went and looked, and then posted the numbers.
I think the xGF% does add to the GF% you posted in the article (and generally supports your conclusion), but apologies for duplicating your work before finishing reading.
Haha. No worries. It’s a damnable thing.
Chaulk was on with Gregor today (and I think he’s also doing Oilers Now with Wilkins but I haven’t listened to that yet) and he had some things to say about Campbell including “3 goals that can’t go in” last game and even mentioned that when he was “playing well” he was still letting in deflating goals.
He said “he was assigned to us” and, essentially that we have to play him and its unfortunately that Rodrigue isn’t getting enough ice and we’ll play him when we get word that we can.
He never said it expressly, but it was fairly clear that he doesn’t want to play Jack nearly as much but he has to.
I didn’t get any indication that the “orders” were changing to get Rodrigue in.
—————–
Broberg just needs to play – “He hasn’t played”. Said he was exceptional the first game where he played 24 minutes but has been “OK” for the most part. They are trying to get him in to all situations.
Lavoie’s play suffered with the extra PK minutes and they are reminding him of the reason he got called up – taking the puck to the net, bullying the league essentially – he needs to get back there.
As expected, orders from the top to resurect Campbell to save old Dutch what rep he has left. More decisions not based on winning – at two levels now!
I don’t believe it has anything to do with Holland’s reputation.
I also believe it has everything to do with winning and the organization believes that the best chance to win is to have Campbell find his game to help solidify a back-up or 1B position and allow assets to be spent for improvements elsewhere.
Truth be told, that is the best case scenario and provides the best ability to win.
Of course, each day, the potential for the plan to work gets more and more unlikely.
Confirmed. Thank you.
If there is a handshake agreement with Brown going down, shouldn’t it be a two way deal, we won’t send you down but you promise to get better every week?
Brown isn’t even the player that should go down.
Adam Erne should go down.
Sent down? I’d settle for a reduction in ice time. You think old Dutch is going to put another black mark on the end of his career?
He’s already got the G situation on his record.
Plus there’s obviously a hand shake deal with Browns agent that trumps winning games
Again, I don’t agree that this has anything to do with Holland’s reputation and is has everything to do with winning.
Firstly sending down Brown to bring anyone (Lavoie) up doesn’t help the team win – that would be sending down Erne to bring up someone (Lavoie).
Also, best case scenario for winning this season is Brown, at some point, finding a semblance of his prior NHL game. That is the hope and the plan and the strongest case to win.
What baffles me is continuing to play Connor Brown who has done nothing over 22 games (Fantasy Rank 849!) but not giving Lavoie some more games with the big club. Doesn’t Drai need a volume shooter on his RW.
He and Connor need a finisher. Lavoie is a first shot scorer. He’s not going to need the volume a lot our forwards would. Having Kane (healthy) with one and Ralph with the other increases the threat
If Brown gets some better it would also increase depth, someone would have to play 3L, which would drop someone to 4L
Career shooting percentages:
Draisaitl 17.9%
McDavid 15.5%
Hyman 12.9%
Ryan 12.3%
Nuge 12.2%
Lavoie 11.9% (AHL)
Brown 11.2%
McLeod 11.1%
Janmark 10.7%
Kane 10.1%
Foegele 9.7%
Gagner 9.4%
Erne 9.0%
Lavoie’s AHL number doesn’t look much different than a lot of ‘our’ NHL forwards. And I’m not sure we can reasonably expect Lavoie to maintain his AHL shooting percentage against NHL goaltenders.
So you think that’s it – Connor Brown died March 24th or 25th, 2022?
Lol, fixed it.
Connor Brown has played in 90 NHL games over his last 3 seasons and last scored an NHL goal on March 24, 2022. Over this period he has a 6.45 shooting percentage and is -28.
Following this game in which he last scored, Brown has played in 26 NHL games and has taken 52 shots without success.
He is -22 in that span.
Did you delete and re-post?
I guess I’ll take this as a ‘yes, he dead’?
Yes, I thought I had messed up the date and couldn’t edit, so deleted and reposted. I can confirm that there were zero CB deaths in that month of that year…
Can’ expect anyone to do anything. Especially in a sport’s best league
What we do know is doing nothing, when it costs nothing, isn’t an option most industry leaders take in any industry
We have had to watch several teams and their GM’s outclass our crew to the point that it’s painful, and affects enjoyment. Really, it isn’t that hard to be modern, even if you can’t win them all. No dice from the CCP collectors
Or CPP
Lavoie is an NHL rookie – management says rookies can’t help win cups.
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/1736895632432865403?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
pretty impressive how badly this team needs a Roloson type trade
We should be 60 goals above the Canucks
How many teams would try their red hot 23 YO?
I think you gotta give him an audition. We’re talking about a 23 YO, 2nd round pick, with 59 GP in the AHL… who’s playing lights out. I don’t understand why you wouldn’t give him 5 starts before making a trade. Goalies are weird. Only one way to know if he’s ready.
The current edition of this organization would never give Rodrigue that shot.
They have made it very clear, pretty much saying, rookies can’t help win the cup – they said that when Lavoie was cut out of camp and by their actions (deployment) when he was called up.
They have shown it with their refusal to play Broberg (even though not a rookie).
They show it by mandating continued starts for Campbell because he is a vet so they need to give him game after game after game because he is the goalie that can help them this year – Rodrigue is a rookie, he can’t.
During the 2023 AHL Calendar year, Campbell’s stats (GP, Save %, GA Avg) are:
10, 0.888, 3.46
Rodrigues stats are:
16, 0.918, 2.48
*Note: Oli has zero shutouts & was not yanked in this span, while Soup has 1 of each in a smaller sample size.
Parents and granparents and family and friends all so excited to see their Son (etc) grow over the years into a player good enough to be drafted. All those hours and dollars spent. All those km’s driven. All those highs and lows. And it comes to draft year and wow, of all the players of their age group across the world, they get drafted.
But poor them, they get drafted by a team that not only can’t develop their draft picks, they hinder their growth.
Completely 100% agree with todays post.
It’s atrocious.
I said at the beginning of the season that it was super duper important that Chaulk and Gretzky understand their role in the organization is to develop prospects. End stop. That is their job.
It seems to me they are auditioning for other jobs by having their #1 goal to win games. Thus they are playing veterans over prospects. (And that isn’t even working – see Griffith etc).
Look at the Sabres AHL team, Rochester, 19 year Jiri Kulich is leading them in scoring, second is 20 year Isaak Rosen. 19 year old Matthew Savoie got 5 points in 6 games before being sent back to Jr.. Can’t do that playing on the 4th line.
Last year, the top 5 scorers were under 25 including an 18 year old.
The season prior JJ Peterka, a 2nd round pick, at 19 lead the team in scoring in his first year in the AHL. Second was a 19 year old.
Look at Tampa Bay’s AHL team. 11 of the top 13 scorers are 25 and under. Including 2 in their 21 year old season and 3 in their 22 year old season.
Play the kids!!!!
Develop talent. That is what you are there for
The Texas Stars are leading the AHL Central Division.
Their top scorers include:
Mavrik Bourque 21
Logan Stankhoven 20
Matej Blumel 23
Oskar Back 23
Antonio Stranges 21
Bourque and Stankhoven are #1 and #2 overall leading the entire AHL.
I wish the best to those young fellas, and hope they fail at the hands of the Good Guys
The Stars have had 13 players 21 or younger on their roster this season. The Oilers have had 6.
Yes, we know.
And the Stars have a bevy of young D warming up in various bullpens.
Quite a system.
Lavoie should not be having to ‘work on things’. He should have been coached up by this point, he has shown he is coachable and engaged
I’ve not been able to watch any of the Condors games this year (life and all that)….
What is the deal with Savoie still playing so few minutes? I know he was injured a lot last year, but I was hoping he’d kick on a bit this season. The goal share looks decent, but 5:43 a night and only being 1-3-4 is a tad disappointing. Being a local kid and all that I’m rooting for him.
Thread theme. Loads of talent, are they specifically and repeatedly working with him or a few pointers and it’s up to him?
What other major sport other than NFL with disposable players invests so little in the future players?
Speaking of the NFL, I’m loving that Chase Brown (Canadian dude) is starting to find his role with my Bengals.
To your point, I’m not sure there is a machine quite like the NFL. It really does a number on a LOT of the young prospects. They really could be doing with an AHL style development league, eh? Would do wonders for those guys that aren’t quite there coming out of college that still have potential.
The 5:43 pretty much has to be a quirk (shortcoming) of the estimated TOI. He might only be playing 9 or 10 minutes a night, which is still disappointing, but I can’t believe 5:43 is accurate.
I’d hope not as well. Is he getting ran hard on PK/PP? Seems very odd.
Has there ever been 2 softer brothers in the NHL as soft as the Mcleods? The only reason he sneaks under the radar from scrutiny is his cap hit. I’ve never seen a centre so fearful of going to the net, him and Brown are killing this team.
Couple losses and we’re back to 0 patience lordy.
the terrible start to the season, gave Edmonton very little margin for error the rest of the way …. so 2 Losses in a row is a BIG DEAL. Patience has worked the last 2 or 3 years … but will it again?
This team seems different than the last couple seasons … and not in a good way … something is amiss.
Still looking up at the epic titans of Nashville, Mickey Mo…Coyotes and the maybe vaunted Blues.
With a very easy schedule to start.
Looks like we actually may play our first back to back game this week.
Our first, and last one, of the year.
Minnesota looking good since the coaching change.
There’s actually another this year somehow. We go back to back Dec 30/31 too.
The insane part is we have 10 back to backs on the season, and have yet to play one. So by Thursday, 20 of our 53 (38%) remaining games will be half of a back to back.
How many 3 in 4 or 3 in 5?
Those are the real killers.
my best guess is the person at the top of the foodchain is crapping the bed re: playing time in the Bake
Katz? Jackson? Holland? Curious who you’re referring to.
Katz is impetuous, Holland is a lame duck, so I guess it’s Jackson
Buyouts are weak GM’s way out. It is a terrible idea to buy out Jack. The team lacks depth with quality, and the dead cap is hurting us now
The context says we need depth now, while Connor is here and in prime. I don’t like that Holland signed Campbell, thought it at the time, and over payed a few, but here we are
Hopefully the new GM can deal his way out, and sorts some roster spots out to play what they have in house, and can get some assets back doing it. This is often what the big boys do
It’s not as hard as they are making it look. We are far too used to a sense of that nothing can be done because we haven’t had a competent GM in so long
The Brown signing was creative but unnecessary. No reason not to wait until mid-season or the trade deadline to ship for a winger. Instead, Ken continued to dwindle down his options for this season and next.
I can’t imagine any team wanting Campbell even at 2.5 million
They will want whatever is being given to do it. Aspiring tankers, er teams rebuilding, may be willing. Or that can buy him out and it doesn’t matter to them
Most of them are already carrying contracts that help their cap but don’t cost them a dime in actual cash.
The way Edmonton builds and supports their prospects they are truly better off trading their picks
This is text book for the oilers. Sink or swim from the 4th line. Gotta earn it. No development plan.
There is also a general pattern of sheltering young players in the AHL up to Christmas.
Not only is it a rough league, but it is good to get winning habits in place. After the Christmas break you see youngsters get increased playing time. This is a generalization.
Having said this, it does not apply so much to this years Condors roster.
“Winning habits.” I hear that a lot when it comes to burying high-end prospects.
If winning was the main objective, wouldn’t we see players like Lavoie, Savoie, Bourgault and Petrov getting feature PP time? Those guys are easily among the team’s best shooters. Winning indeed. It’s just an old-school ‘paying your dues’ mindset.
Balance
Who says young prospects are better players? Generally they are not near as good as AHL leading Vets. Particularly at start of the year and start of a prospects career.
Also to be balanced on the roster is the needs of all players. The newbs are there and have little say.
Some players were brought in with a handshake and a purpose. Some have handshake deals to be call ups so be ready.
I feel lots more to it than discussed here. Prospects should not be buried of course, nor should they go straight to the front of the line.
Call up Broberg to play with Ekholm, play Bouchard with Draisaitl
Campbell was forced upon the Condors and has single handedly destroyed their season.
I doubt they are too happy about this.
The likes of Mike Griffith have been clear that the mandate to play Campbell has come from “up top” and even Chaulk wasn’t afraid to allude to the same when on Edmonton radio (can’t remember if it was with Stauff or Gregor – he does spots with both).
Colin Chaulk’s resume is so light. I don’t understand why he was hired permanently as head coach in Bakersfield. There is no record of significant accomplishment anywhere.
His only qualification for employment seems to be that he was a friend of Jay Woodcroft. He was unemployed in hockey when he got the assistant coaching gig with Jay.
i.e. with a resume so slight, his incentive has to be to win at any cost, rather than balance winning with development.
This is the 2nd season in a row where he sandbagged the Forwards to start the year. So I agree there are question marks.
But he coached in the ECHL for a few seasons.
https://thehockeywriters.com/5-things-know-new-oilers-ahl-coach-chaulk/
Bednar won titles all the way up from the ECHL.
Todd Nelson won titles all the way up. As an assistant coach for Atlanta in the NHL, coincided with their best years in the NHL. He outperformed Eakins with a worse roster, Hall was hurt half the time, and Petry was traded away for another half. Went to the Stanley Cup final as an assistant coach in Dallas.
Sheldon Keefe, deep into the playoffs whereever he was 80% of the time, AHL championship.
This is very true. Coaches need wins to advance. The parent club wants player development, but rarely rewards the coach with a direct path to the NHL.
The incentive is to toe the line. Winning is secondary.
If winning was the main focus we’d see Rodrigue a lot more, and guys like Savoie and Bourgault would get a lot more PP time.
Chaulk was the coach that unlocked Lavoie.
Lavoie unlocked himself despite of Chaulk.
Couldn’t disagree more.
Apropos of nothing. There was some swooning a few weeks back about KK finding everyone roles, dolling out TOI properly and making everyone feel welcome.
McLeod is playing 70 seconds less under KK – and has taken a two min per game cut the last six games.
Foegele is playing 7 seconds more under KK
Gagner is playing almost 2 minutes less under KK (but in every game)
Ryan is playing about 55 seconds less under KK
Janmark playing up slightly maybe 15 seconds more.
Brown playing about 35 seconds less.
Kane playing slightly less by about 35 seconds.
The top six guys are down too but that is a function of the PP scoring more and then the 5v5 time being spread out. But that works out to less than 110 seconds a game on average.
Everyone is down a tad as more folks have returned from injury or have stayed in the lineup more consistently since Knoblauch took over. So to summarize. Returns from injury have spread out the wealth ever so slightly but KK is running pretty much the EXACT SAME forward deployment as Jay Woodcroft.
TOI being one measure, but certainly splitting 29 and 97 and all the downstream alterations that came with that has been a significant shift in deployment?
Doesn’t impact deployment that much cause you still ride the top six. There’s been the odd up and down, Janmark specifically getting the “most” shifts in the top six but really he’s the only outlier on that.
The biggest differences come in Special Team deployment. Here again, with the PP cooking there is less time spent running a PP since KK took the reigns but game in and our you’re talking maybe 1.5 shifts of ice time.
With folks coming back from injuries we’ve seen PK TOI for McLeon drop but that’s not really that different from last March/April once everyone was healthy. One change here is that KK has put Foegele on the PK which gives him a special teams role. Foggy, Kulak and whoever is playing the 12th F spot didn’t get much Special Teams play under Woody unless injuries took hold so this is the one difference in F deployment.
But Knoblauch basically running the same guys the exact same amount of time as Jay did.
Stapling Lavoie to Draisaitl’s wing for up coming California road trip would be a good test/evaluation tool.
The organizational culture is that they’re not into developing young prospects. Sir Holland stated this on a few occasions. Think about it it’s way easier of a job when you don’t have to deal with development pains are really giving 2 shits about the draft since you traded all your picks. Holland knows there’s always a Erne, Gagner or Sutter that don’t need babysitting like a Lavoie does.
How this team gets out from under Jack Campbell’s contract is beyond me. I don’t think there is really a choice at this time but to pay a price and move on.
Broberg will surely be traded at the deadline here so great news to see him playing well. This will not be lost on opposing teams scouts.
In a Cup or Bust season, two key Holland signings are really dragging things down here. ( Campbell and Brown)
Two options are:
1) Campbell, Kulak, & draft capital for Jake Allen and Josh Anderson. This deal upgrades Campbell’s atrocious contract to Anderson’s putrid contract, and gets us another 1B goalie in Jake Allen. It’s an upgrade, but not a meaningful one.
2) Campbell & draft capital for Elvis Merzlikins. Either you think that Merzlikins is another overpaid 1B, or you’re like me and you think Elvis will find Graceland in Edmonton.
I would make this move (it will cost a 1st+) because Elvis’ ceiling is probably the highest amongst available options, and I believe Columbus is pathetic enough to take on Campbell’s contract if they’re well compensated for it. Campbell – Spencer Martin are bad enough to get them a shot at Celebrini. Adding another 1st and say, Xavier Bourgault, represents a good haul for them.
better option is to find a good cheap goalie (hello James Reimer) and buy out Campbell in the summer
Can you win a cup with James Reimer (or Stuart Skinner)? I have my doubts about it.
I’m not saying Elvis is in the same category as Vasi or Sheshterkin, but he has demonstrated himself a bona fide #1 and a guy I’d prefer to go into a playoff series against Vegas in the nets.
Maybe if the Oilers retain a little on Campbells contract they could divest. Unsure how this works with buyouts (I believe the Oilers would still get hit)
I don’t know how to make it happen but I’d go for Saros. If he’s available the Oilers should move whatever they can to get him. Campbell likely goes in a seperate deal.
I like Skinner, glad he’s on the team. But he needs a capable partner to tandem with.
Reimer has a full NMC-NTC
No, that is not correct.
He does not have a NMC, he has a modified NTC – a 7 team no trade clause (which, really, means no Canada I would presume).
No rainbows AND no Canadians? smh
Pardonnez-mois! He isn’t getting waived and he aint coming to Edmonton. Tabarnac!
Toronto broke him.
I hear the church burnings are less frequent in Michigan.
I think the org. loves Kulak. Proven worth in playoffs. Top notch skater that can be mean.
I suspect something along the lines of option 2.
I like #1, I played with the Josh Anderson for Jack and Kulak idea as well. The math doesn’t work though. How do we solve that? I imagine it’s still a first from Edmonton as well?
Laine would be a good add on with that deal…….with a lot of retention.
1) Campbell traded seems close to an impossibly to me – he’s got such negative value that its cost-prohibitive. I would think AT LEAST 2 1st round equivalent assets (and, no, neither Lavoie nor Bourgault have that value now, maybe not even Broberg or Holloway).
Even if taking back another massive anchor, like Josh Anderson, the Oilers would have to add quite a bit (in addition to taking on a massive negative value deal).
As much as buyouts suck, I think the play is to move on in the off-season via buyout (the dead cap hit per year isn’t actually THAT bad).
2) I don’t think its a certainty that Broberg will be traded by the deadline at all. His $867K this season may actually go down next season (qualifying offer is $833K) and that will have huge value going forward – more than they will get in a trade.
Dozen Losses To Catch Vegas Watch
I’m looking for two things: Can Edmonton keep their post 8-game winning streak (Nov 24-Dec 12) losses to pre winning streak loss levels (12) thereby losing 1/2 their games within the first 1/5 of the season? And what would then need to happen to catch Vegas and likely de facto win the Conference / Division?
If Edmonton can continue at 44-10 (.814) they will finish with 115 pts
Vegas would need to continue at 34-16 (.680) to finish with 115 pts
Likely? No. Unpossible? 2 losses sets us up for another run of 8…?
Vegas is currently at .734
LA is .704
Vancouver is .688
Do you think it’s reasonable that all three will tank simultaneously?
2 of 3 will yes.
I’d put my money on everyone but Vegas falling out of bed as that’s who I had in the summer as the only legitimate contender against the Oilers.
Colorado set for another first round loss. Its hard to overstate just how badly Sakic’s replacement hollowed out that team. It’ll get real ugly in Dallas now that their safety blanket is gone. L.A. set to rely solely on Talbot and Doughty now…
Your Magic 8 Ball seems to be severely cracked.
Colorado is 1st in the Central while missing a top 6 forward in Lekkonen, two top 4D in Makar and Girard while MacKinnon is exploding.
LAK is humming along and remains a defensive powerhouse while Quinton Byfield emerges as a star in real time.
Dallas will be just fine..their depth is impressive and their backup goaltending is more than sufficient.
You focus on the past too much.
Dallas has been sub-.500 for a month and that was with Oettinger.
In their last ten games Colorado has given up four or more seven times and that’ll continue as Bednar Rides MacKinnon’s line into the ground. Over a minute and a half more per game lately compared to McDavid or Draisaitl.
L.A. finally set to get playoff opponents and are actually going to have to travel… uh oh.
Don’t apply purpose or intent to this.
no team is gonna go .814 the rest of the way.
my favorite part of this goofy exercise, is since you started this Edmonton is 0-2.
Not going to appear so “goofy” once they rattle off 16 straight.
16 straight Losses?
In all honesty which is more likely: I have no idea.
hahahahahah. I Reallly hope they can make the playoffs, but something seems slightly off??
Hurricanes sign Aaron Dell to a PTO.
Oettinger injured in Dallas.
Pheonix Copley on LTIR in LA.
Dropping like flies.
LA have big save Dave Rittich don’t they?
I think the org has been a bit disappointed by Lavoie since he was sent down. It started with them “heaping praise” for Lavoie apparently coming to Chaulk and saying he wants to be on the PK as he needs to find a way to impact the game more when not in a scoring role.
Then BOTH Keith Gretzky and Colin Chaulk have been express that his 5 on 5 game feel off with the extra minutes.
Meh, whatever, call him up, send Erne down, play him with Drai, see what happens.
Why the hell is Erne playing 23 minutes 5v5 ha ha ha ha
Incredible
Those two have been a pair almost all season long but the coaching staff recently split them – partially due to Broberg joining the team (I would think) but also partially because the rookie pro is starting to come down off his heater a bit (as acknowledged and cited by the AGM, Keith Gretzky).
Philip Broberg is too good for the AHL – we knew this months ago and it remains true.
I have been of the opinion that he will not really develop further playing big minutes in the AHL but his development requires NHL ice time, getting used to the speed of the NHL game and making plays in the NHL.
Yes, this re-assignment was necessary to get confidence back as they have refused to play him a regular shift in the NHL but, really, dominating a slower AHL game isn’t really going to do much.
I understand “win now” and I understand Vinny is a presence and great on the PK and I understand Kulak is “better right now” but this player needs 14 minutes in the NHL every night and he can contribute to a winning team in that role (as he did in January-February 2023).
Maybe he might learn how to play like a man in the AHL . Then maybe he could bring that to the NHL.
Grim post, Alan.
And you didn’t even mention the plethora of (poor) starts Jack Campbell has been gifted ahead of young Olivier Rodrigue.
In January I hope to see:
1) Lavoie recalled (similar to Yamamoto 4 seasons ago)
2) Campbell traded
3) Bourgault promoted to a scoring role
While I agree, I don’t think that this will happen because 1) or 3) would be involved with 2).
This.
The most egregious, too.
Campbell traded seems close to an impossibly to me – he’s got such negative value that its cost-prohibitive. I would think AT LEAST 2 1st round equivalent assets (and, no, neither Lavoie nor Bourgault have that value now, maybe not even Broberg or Holloway).
Even if taking back another massive anchor, like Josh Anderson, the Oilers would have to add quite a bit (in addition to taking on a massive negative value deal).
I’m curious if this might not also be a by product of our new amateur head scout Pracey and how he looks at these players now and in their draft year.
The Oil lack a young C man to develop in a Bakersfield. ( Mind you with your Stats on how they play prospects I guess it wouldn’t matter).
I don’t get how Lavoie is not getting a ton of minutes? But then I really think he should be here with that shooting mentality and stapled on Drai’s wing right now. What would that hurt when guys they have with him don’t have hands ( Kane does ). Like Janmark and Foegle. I suppose the terrible start had a lot to do as well as $$$ with Lavoie not being here. As for Bourgeault , he had a great camp and you would have thought they would have played him a lot. Obviously not.
Same with Rodrigue. Kid has played great. Maybe even bring him up and send Pickard down and see what you have?
The way they play Campbell and not this kid is a joke. Campbell is showing he is not going to bounce back. So we are stunting Rodrigue’s growth in the mean time?
It is a very odd situation like you say in Bakersfield. No clue why they run it that way.
Lavoie was given apx 20 minutes for a few games (with some PK work added) and both the AGM and the Head Coach noted that his overall game suffered.
I agree about Lavoie up and in the Oilers middle six – doesn’t hurt and I’d rather Brown on the 4th line and Erne not inserted.
Rodrigue was a top 10 goalie in the AHL for the second half of last season – he should have been splitting with Pickard down the stretch, he should have been splitting with Pickard to start this season and he should have been splitting with Campbell since the swap.
It will be VERY interesting to see who starts on Wednesday – I doubt they start Pickard but, if they do, it may signal the org giving up on rehabilitating Jack for this season.
LT: Has Eric’s methodology ever been tested against an NHL team, where estimated minutes based on “goal events” could be compared to actual TOI?
e.g. with Oilers currently Hyman has been on for 55 goals at 5v5, Ryan just 13, less than a quarter as many. Yet Ryan’s 233 minutes are well more than half of Hyman’s 408.
I’m not certain. I did check his numbers versus pick224 last year and they were in the same range. I also know that these estimate models, going back decades, are solid.