I’m about to make some of you angry. My take on the game will differ from yours. I don’t believe the sky is falling, I don’t believe Stuart Skinner should be sent out on the next garbage barge coming down the North Saskatchewan.
For me, last night’s game was encouraging. During the Lowdown on Tuesday, I mentioned the worry surrounded being able to play a structured, complete game at five-on-five. The Oilers accomplished it, and frankly should have won the game.
Special teams were set ablaze and that’s bad. Stuart Skinner should have had the first goal against, and that’s less than ideal. The sky is not falling, the fixes are possible.
This Oilers team is going to win a lot of games if they can five-on-five like they did last night. Need another goalie to push Skinner, though. Plus some other pieces.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: How much has Oilers trading prospects and picks actually hurt?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner takes blame as goaltending leads to end of Oilers’ win streak
- Lowetide: Are the Edmonton Oilers able to make a strong trade this season?
- Lowetide: 3 young Edmonton Oilers prospects looking for full-time duty
- DNB: Calvin Pickard’s play and improved defending give Oilers time to make a goalie trade
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 4 most famous midseason demotions in franchise history
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard has the points. But is his recent defensive uptick legit?
- Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, real needs
- DNB: Oilers’ Philip Broberg seeking trade, per source: Why he could be on the move
- DNB: The Oilers penalty kill has finally found its groove. What’s changed?
- Lowetide: What do the Edmonton Oilers still need to be a Stanley Cup contender?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: CAR, MIN, NJD, CHI, TBAY, FLA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 4-2-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-0, 12 points in 12 games
- Actual December results: 4-3-0, 8 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 13-15-1, 27 points in 29 games
I don’t think anyone expected a 3-0-0 road trip, but that was a game Edmonton played well enough to win. They need to make like Archie Bell and the Drells and tighten up on both special teams.
Each new day brings fresh outrage for Oilers fans, and we all have our own theology about the truth and the light.
For me, I don’t trade Jack Campbell but rather buy him out next summer. More in a minute. I’d run Skinner and Calvin Pickard, maybe recall Olivier Rodrigue for a game or two in February. He needs to play a lot between now and then. I’d try to find a way to trade Brett Kulak, allowing Philip Broberg a slot in the top-six blue. I’d run Dylan Holloway in the top-nine when he returns, possibly with Leon Draisaitl. I don’t think there’s a trade out there now that can help, but there should be more than one at the deadline. We’ll see. Top priority: A goalie who can push Skinner. I don’t see him out there currently. More in a minute.
THE NUMBERS
I know you want me to tear a new on re: Skinner, but I don’t see it that way. He is a good goaltender having a rough first half, but there are good signs if you look for them. In the past month (nine games), Skinner has a .914 five-on-five save percentage. He posted .926 one year ago, and overall this season he’s at .901.
In October, Skinner owned a .910SP, November saw that number dive to .895 and so far in December it’s .885. The most recent nine games offer hope.
Edmonton needs to find a tandem partner. Flushing Skinner, as some have suggested, is mind blowing as an idea. I will tell you he needs to be better. I will also tell you he needs to start in New Jersey. Edmonton needs a win on this road trip.
I don’t have much additional opinion on last night’s game. If you look at the numbers, that’s a winning team. Special teams were simply awful. Bad decisions from veteran men. Sheesh.
DARREN DREGER
I have interviewed Darren Dreger on several occasions and appreciate his careful reporting. When Dreger says something, he has vetted the information and is sure of it. So his comments yesterday (here) are worth discussing:
- “You look at his American league numbers, he’s playing in Bakersfield and he’s logging between 25 and 27 minutes a game. He wants to be back in the NHL, that’s not likely in Edmonton unless there is an injury, so trade seems the most likely. Here’s an interesting twist, maybe it’s not just Philip Broberg for an asset coming back to the Oilers. maybe Broberg becomes the sweetener so that they can also move Jack Campbell’s contract to free up a little bit of cap space. Broberg is a commodity and it seems like that commodity is growing higher day by day.”
I rarely post links and quotes for 24 hours after they hit, so this is unusual. Please click on the link, good reporting should always be rewarded.
I hate this idea. I suspect it’s true. I think the Katz-Holland Oilers value name brand products, and their target goalie requires the first-round selection and little or no money coming back. So, let me create a possible scenario.
Edmonton trades Broberg and the 2025 first-round selection, plus Jack Campbell, to Nashville for nothing. The cost of one year at $5 million cap is about a first-round selection, so maybe the Oilers have to add something else (there are three years left). It will be a stunningly expensive trade.
Once completed, it would allow the Oilers to trade the 2024 first-round selection in a deal for Petr Mrazek or Jake Allen. Maybe Kyle Dubas finds a way to send Tristan Jarry here. I don’t see a sure thing option.
The Holland target, based on his own past? Juuse Saros. I can’t see it happening. Yaroslav Askarov is not ready, and may never be elite. Nashville is in a playoff position, Edmonton is not at this time.
I hate everything about this rumour, but believe it is true. Holland drafted Broberg, blocked him six ways to Sunday, and NHL teams are interested in trading for him. SO interested they are apparently willing to take on Jack Campbell’s contract. What in h-e-double-hockey-sticks is this organization doing?
At noon today, Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. Bruce saw the game much the same as me, we’ll review and look ahead to the rest of the road trip. I’ll also ask Bruce to find a few goalie names for us to ponder on the show. Talking Raptors, too. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
A Horrible Thought:
Leon Draisaitl looks disengaged this season in a way that I have never seen him before.
He’s a deep thinker style of player, and is fairly easy to read from his mood.
Draisaitl’s anything but a fool – and he doesn’t want to waste his career playing for a non-contending team. The question is – are Oilers honestly going to look like anything more than this ongoing circus by next, his last season on the books?
With this season being the 2nd last before things get serious, plus the change in his on ice attitude for the worse you almost now have to start wondering whether or not he is starting to be thinking about moving on.
If you think Leon re signs an Oiler to a new contract press thumbs up.
If you think Leon, at least might be considering his options given the Oiler’s season to date, press thumbs down.
Draisaitl was the only forward who started the season well.
He’s easily a world class player. Top Ten, possible Top 5. He could give nearly anyone a run for their money in today’s NHL.
Draisaitl is great enough that he can score points and still be mulling over his ultimate NHL future.
Kane
Condors hang on – Malone buries one in the empty net with 33 seconds to go.
Rodrigue with 38 saves on 40 shots!
Thanks for the updates, OP.
Rodrigue reminds me of where Skinner was in early 2021.
He’s like a year away from getting spot starts in the NHL, and working his way into a backup role by fall 2025.
Get yourself back on Cult of Hockey. You are an excellent online presence.
Now Lavoie with a double-minor high stick with 8 to go and up by a goal……
Wranglers score on a jam play with 3 minutes left in the 5 minute PP.
I missed the video, as the wife requested a back-rub, put Drake took an elbowing major with a minute left in the 2nd so still 4 minutes to kill.
i assumed you had servants.
It was a silly penalty, I think Caggiula simply mistimed the event, I don’t think he had malicious intent.
Wranglers absolutely dominated the 2nd period – came in waves.
Rodrigue only allowed the one goal on the PK and was very good. 27 saves on 28 shots through two.
Thanks OP. appreciate the updates.
Wranglers with back to back PPs.
On the first, tons of pressure but no goal.
Second started with tons of pressure and a beauty cross-seam pass/on-timer goal for which Rodrigue has zero chance on – gorgeous goal.
Kemp/Broberg were the d-paid – not sure if either was culpable but the lane was there for the pass
All this talk about Lavoie on the PK continues to be over-stated.
He depth killed for a few games, that’s it.
He was not on PK1 or PK2 tonight – Pederson was on PK2 and, per Holt, he just started killing last week.
So the Oilers won’t let him be a scorer. Tell him he has to be a bottom sixer. And then they don’t let him PK in the minors to develop the necessary skills to be a plug, because the incompetent AHL coach with zero track record, has to play for wins to sustain a coaching career.
No, because once he got the extra ice on the PK, his overall game suffered – he couldn’t handle the extra minutes/responsibility.
Condors with some egregious puck play and Emilio Petterson goes in all alone – to be honest, Rodrigue flopped and was beat but he hit the post on a wide open net.
Savoie takes a pass in neutral, a fine move at the blueline to beat a defender and create a 2 on 1 – perfect pass over to Grubbe who buries the 3-0 early in the 2nd.
Hoeffenmayer with the secondary on the outlet.
Great first period for the Condors, outshoot the Wranglers 20-12 (it tightened up late) and outscored them 2-0.
Broberg, Tulio, Bourgault, Pederson, Caggiula and McKegg were noticeable.
Lavoie was nit.
12 saves for Rodrigue but nothing too too tough.
Broberg driving the net on a 2 on 2 draws a PP.
This is the only part of the ‘rumor’ that fits with Holland’s own past as far as I can see.
I looked at it back in the summer, and I think Holland has literally never in his entire career traded away a young, high pedigree, defenseman like Broberg (though he could be fairly criticized for keeping a number of them too long).
I don’t think Broberg, 1st, plus, to dump Campbell’s contract in-season would be a Holland move at all.
Likewise, spending a 1st round pick on an Allen or Mrazek is not something that Holland has done.
If we see something like you’re suggesting, I think it would be more confirmation that Holland is no longer the man in charge, and that any vitriol should be directed elsewhere.
If the Oilers do somehow land Saros, well that’s something that might reasonably have Holland’s fingerprints on it.
Of course we are well past the point where we can credit him for any positive moves. I don’t see how it would be fair to hang any negative ones on him at this point either.
Holland is still the boss until his 6 figure a week paycheques end.
Broberg with a great defensive play – knocking a hail mary pass out of mid air (intended for the player coming out of the box) – takes the loose puck and charges up the ice with full speed, diagonal across the neutral zone, wide down the right side, almost beats the d-man to the net, goes around the net and makes and, well, poor pass, but a great play and rush – FAST.
Broberg is ready and he is cost-effective. We don’t need to wait for an apple to fall off the tree before deploying him. Trade Kulak + for a goaltender, or Desharnais +.
Pederson with the draw win on the next PP and Griffith rings a lazer off the crossbar from the top of the circles.
PP2: Tulio, McKegg, Bourgault, Broberg, Hoeffenmayer.
Current nightly save percentage:
Rodrigue: 1.00 on 6 shots
Wolfe: .600 on 5 shots
Pederson, Griffith, Lavoie, Caggiula as PP1 – set play off the draw and Lavoie blisters a one-timer wide.
Pederson with a great zone entry and dangle, dishes to Griffith on the side boards who delivers a lazer pass to Caggiula driving through the crease and a beauty finish.
A glorious goal from the vets.
Is the 2nd sentence all state SV% where the first sentence is 5v5 SV%? If so, it’s good that his 5v5 SV% is .914, but on the other hand his all-state SV % continues to fall.
Condors win the neutral zone draw, Kemp over to Broberg who quickly gets to center and makes a strong dump – Tulie/McKegg/Bourgault go to work with a great forecheck and cycle shift, Bourgaut works up the boards, reverses to McKegg who makes a strong move from the goalline to the net and Tulio bangs home the rebound for the early 1-0 lead.
Tulio/McKegg/Bourgault
Lavoie/Pederson/Griffith
Caggiula/Malone/Wright
Savoie/Grubbe/Kambeitz
Broberg/Kemp
Hoeffenmayer/Wanner
Niemo/Dineen
Rodrigue
looks like the Bourg and Lavioe playing on top 2 lines 🙂
Chaulk must read here! Draft push
Broberg seems like the kind of player that gets traded a couple of times for very little and then all of a sudden he’s 28 and everyone is like holy crap this is a really good defenseman. How do we get him
Pronger the same , not comparing
Jay Bouwmeester.
William Lagesson…..
Hadyn Fleury
What would Vegas do? WWVD
The more we discuss things that might help, the more I think moving Kulak is WWVD. They need Bro in the future. I like Kulak but this is pro sports and solving roster problems is job #1
If the team isn’t doing something egregious to player, family or not you do it. If family concerns are more important the player should not have become a pro athlete, or had kids, or whatever
If you’re best AHL D who is beyond that league clearly can’t play on your 3rd pair, WTF? The right side needs help, figure it out. They won’t play Bro there because there isn’t suitable partner RS. Far far from unpossible, for competent leadership
If they are keeping Bro for playoff depth, first it’s fairly questionable they will make it. Second if he needs to be used they are still too weak on the right side
Why does Holland have such a hard time with right shot players?
I think any good NHL organization would do what you are suggesting.
Its been obvious that Kulak should be moved out to make room for Broberg for some time now. Kulak has no future with the Oilers whatsoever. Broberg potentially has a 10+ year career as a top 4 Dman who can skate and is cost-controlled. This should not even be a question for management.
Vegas would make Soupy go on LTIR for the rest of his career and put Nurse on LTIR until the playoffs
Oh ya
No, they would not.
Rodrigue gets the start tonight.
This is meaningful given they haven’t played since Sat.
The Oilers have the 2nd worst 5v5 PDO in the league. It is unbelievable that a team with CMD has the 4th worst SH% in the league.
The shooters (2) are cold, and the non shooters (the rest) are colder
Defacto “rope-a-dope” is being widely deployed, and the Oilers are living up to the “a dope” part.
Holland guilty of extreme misjudgement and complacency during the summer…lead dope.
Explain how the Oilers play the dope.
Same way George Foreman did.
You are unable to explain your own, oft repeated, comment
https://theathletic.com/5147751/2023/12/19/nhl-teams-best-worst-score-state/
at what point do we accept that we don’t have the horses and need to re-tool on the fly.
Can you re-tool without moving Draisaitl?
All depends on his long term plans and contract demands. But if he wants 13 mil a year I would move on
Almost have to. Or Nurse and use that, keep Bouch and get a cheaper LD
Dom’s updated player cards peg Nurse’s value at $5.6 million.
https://theathletic.com/5015509/2023/12/17/nhl-player-cards-pacific-division/?source=user_shared_articleNHL Player Cards: Pacific Division
How do you recoup value there?
Those player value cards are almost worthless. But if I was in charge I would have never offered more than 6.5 per year
Garbage in; garbage out.
And they have Bouchard at $12.1M, which we know you’ll agree is fair.
Yep…trading away the only actual defenseman who can defend at a shutdown level with runway left on his career. That makes a lot of sense.
Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie.
Might get you second round picks or journeymen.
Hardly a retool.
But where did the horses go?
Yamamoto and Kostin are the ‘horses’ that departed. Apparently too much to overcome?
Before last night’s game I was about to write a comment but the 1 year old woke up and my time was spent elsewhere.
I was going to mention Simon Holmström, he was drafted in the same draft as Broberg, 2019, and in a draft where there weren’t a lot of strong swedish forward prospects he was imo the best forward prospect which I think I wrote in my annual predraft write-up on swedes. The Islanders picked him 23rd overall, the first swedish forward off the board that year, and made the decision to bring him over to play in the AHL already his D+1 year, a rare move wrt swedish draftees and one that hasn’t typically worked all that well historically.
This is the first year where he’s been in the NHL full time and before last night’s game he had 4 SH goals which lead the league and that was the reason I was going to mention him in a “they better pay attention to this guy when on the PP” sort of way.
With the post being post-poned due to baby we instead know what happened. And they didn’t. He now leads the league with 5 SH goals
What’s also interesting is that while it’s unusual for swedish players to make the move to the AHL in their D+1, and for good reason, it’s been obvious following the player that the Islanders had a clear plan in place with Holmström from day 1. One can argue if he’d developed better with another year or two in Sweden, I think we might have seen more offense out of him but the Islanders now have a very Islanders type of player, with skill and two way ability, who’s turned into a quality PKer and looks like he’ll be a solid middle sixer down the line, I think there’s some additional offense once he’s more established.
And depending on how Elmer Söderblom grows into his body I think he eventually will end up the best swedish forward of the 2019 draft. Höglander might put up more points in a single season but Holmström will be the more useful player and have better longevity.
The whole point of this exercise in dissecting a player the Oilers will face only twice a year is to make the point that while one can argue which path is the best for each prospect the key is to have a very clear idea what that path actually is from the get go, make sure the player and his representation is fully on board, revisit yearly and tweak depending on development and trajectory. This is certainly something the Oilers could learn from.
Curious about your take on Canucks draft pick Tom Willander to go to the NCAA this season.
He seems to be thriving at Boston University.
Think it’s a pretty smart move. He’s kinda raw so getting ice time and extra development time in the NCAA is probably smart. He wouldn’t have played a lot for Rögle this season if he’d stayed so would likely have spent half the season with the junior team before being loaned out to Allsvenskan the second half. Then next year he’d probably ended up getting bottom pairing/7th D minutes in the SHL or another year loaned out to Allsvenskan. In that light the college route with big minutes and year to year certainty where he’ll play is probably a good move.
Thanks.
Thanks, it is such a waste to not maximize free assets, and it’s outside of the cap
Just catching up here, great blog as usual Mr. Lowetide…Dear Lord, that trade scenario posted is insanity… Broberg should be on this team. STOP
The problem with Skinner is he’s only one goalie. Even good goalies need capable backups for when they struggle.
We often talk about how our poor defense leads to goals against but I don’t think we talk about what happens to your defense when every mistake ends up in the back of the net.
what I’m getting at is time to get a goalie
Skinner is an NHL goalie … but he’s a mediocre one. Good one night, bad the next. He’s cost controlled, so no way way you throw him overboard. He’s not ready to be a full time starter. But unless they can thread the needle and send Campbell to CBJ for Merzlikins, if that’s even possible, I don’t see a way forward for the Oilers that involves a material improvement in net.
Rather than trading for retreads like Reimer or Mrazek, they should use this season to find out what they have in Rodrigue.
The way this organization has handled the goalies should get everyone involved at all levels (coaching, pro and minor scouting, GM) fired. I’ll give Jackson a pass because he inherited this problem, but if Jack Campbell continues to get starts ahead of Rodrigue, then he’d go on my hit list as well.
Jackson needs to tell Campbell to get help with whatever anxiety or mental health issues he has and go on LTIR for the rest of the season. It’s time for Campbell to go to Robidas Island.
Seems like these are the same comments over and over since October ….
Play the kids …
Play Broberg …
Upgrade RHD …
get a Goalie …
etc
etc
What has Management done, as far as player transactions, to help this team win since their horrendous 2-9-1 start?
……
…..
Ken can’t see the forest for the trees. So he goes to the retail tree lot and gets topped. Can see the trees there
And they also hate rookie hiccups, will only tolerate veteran hiccups. There have to be RS D that can play moderate defensively and skate and pass better than 2 of our 3. I think it would make a large difference in what we are seeing with reversions every set of games
There are so many examples of how not going full ‘Modern Defencemen’, but being modern in that just having big guys or steady Eddy’s isn’t enough – players need pace and puck skills at a good level to carry enough weight. The difference between them being points – less points less cap
How much better would our team be if they had acquired Hronek? He was too expensive and going UFA but you get my drift. Massive for the Dys
I think they need another NHL C. With Drai and McLeod having issues there is no one else, they won’t play Nuge there as a regular. A RC C would be really helpful, that didn’t need sheltering, like the Cap’s Dowd. 5 points but has a good goal share.
I hope that analytic dept is finding value players, that shouldn’t take too long to do, as opposed to setting up programs to eat the Mr Creosote amount of data dump from the league
This is one of the infuriating aspects of this for me. Management is very clear that kids/rookies/prospects cannot help win cups. It was expressed “we don’t have time for rookie mistakes” when Lavoie was sent down in October. Sure, fine, if you are the Bruins of last season when your roster generally limits mistakes. That is NOT the case with the Oilers where pretty much ALL roster players make a decent to high amount of mistakes. Even Ekholm has been mistake prone this season.
Why can Foegele make mistakes but not Lavoie?
You won’t win cups with veterans who keep losing.
Respectfully LT, I think you’re out to lunch on this Dreger rumour. Dreger hasn’t broken any news of substance in years. He’s as much of an insider to the inner workings of the Edmonton Oilers as you or I or anyone else who frequents this site is. He’s a fraud and this a fraudulent rumour.
Coach confirms Pickard starts against the Devils and Skinner against the Rangers.
l like it Pickard knows the importance with getting a W for the team and his career. For me this is a must win are else it’s going to get ugly again.
Have you ever thumbed a long comment on your phone and then done something to delete it. Ya, it sucks
So in summary, I think the Oilers lose gas after a high tempo game or two, or a lot of the players do. They looked flat, Leon has for games. Thus the forced passes, they don’t have the legs outside of Connor Zach and McLeod who are natural skaters
So, use what you have. Curlock has another nice piece explaining Holloway’s game. Read it, it’s good. Inject speed and youthful energy into the roster. Improve puck movement from those struggling or just not good at it
Boston has at least 3 offensive D. Boston. And no puck slouches except maybe Wotherspoon whom don’t know. I’d use Holloway as soon as healthy top 6 unless Brown can win that job back. I would trade Kulak as LT said and try to get a 3rd pair RD back, play Bro. Acquire cheap D depth at the deadline. I would only add a forward if it was a C then, they have guys in the A for depth. If a reasonable goalie becomes available yes. If Ralph earns it back use him, he can score
Hopefully someone can take Ceci’s spot by playoffs and push him down the chart. Basically it looks like they have to be bold to change this dynamic. This dynamic, even if it does makes the playoffs, isn’t getting by the Kings this time, not the Knights, probably not the Avs if Makar is healthy
MacT Bold Moves tm and get after it in a new way. Fortune favours the bold. What this has been isn’t seeming like it will go away, at least enough to get them in given nobody is playing worse that we need to catch
Why trade Kulak for a 3rd RD. Trade for a potential 1st RD, Tanev? Who else, someone to compete with Ceci.
Great if you can do it asset and cap wise. I was thinking cheap and easier improvements that could make a larger difference than it might seem
Confidence. It’s real and it’s spectacular.
8 game win streak. Confidence high.
Bad goals against vs TB while getting goalied. Confidence low.
Your earlier statements above are the way to go. There are no goalies right now and scrambling to get one will be at full cost+extra. Best to buy out Campbell in the summer and bring up Broberg.
OP or whoever can actually understand the CBA.
Doesn’t this Campbell situation cry out for getting 2 teams involved with taking on his cap hit? Isn’t there a tool where we can use 2 other teams to take on some of his cap hit for compensation?
Are we able to involve 2 teams and then have that final team buyout Campbell?
Just seems like a situation where NBA GMs would figure out a complicated but legal way to deal with it.
It’s possible but I’d guess expensive. No team is going to throw the Oilers a lifeline mid season. It’s a bad situation, Holland’s rep as Oilers GM hinges on his ability to navigate/fix his biggest mistake before he heads off into the sunset.
He unloaded Looch, so I have hope he can be creative(even if the long time return on that trade was mixed, I still think it was a win overall.)
Okay, talked to a friend. Here is my understanding:
(1) a team can retain 50% max of what the salary is on the books;
(2) only 2 teams can retain on the same contract
(3) The max amount that can be retained is 75% of the actual contract. So Team A retains 50%, Team B retains 25%;
(4) Can’t acquire the player in a trade if you’ve retained (so can’t trade through 2 teams to get the player back at a cheaper hit)
So I *think* we could trade Campbell to Team A, keep $2.75m, Team B takes on $1.375m for compensation, then trades him to Team C, who then has Campbell at $1.375m.
I am not 100% clear but I think then if Team C buys out Campbell’s contract, we do the buyout based on our 50%.
Yes, that’s how it works. Not sure too many teams will be lining up for 6 years of cap though. It’ll cost. And then the Oilers still have half of the buyout cap hit to deal with.
Oilers would be paying teams to take on 50% and 25% of his cap hit and would be hit with half the buyout cost for the next 6 seasons.
Many will be very happy (although I don’t think Erne over Brown makes the team better – I would TRY Lavoie over Erne but, well, rookie):
Tony Brar
@TonyBrarOTV
Oilers practice in New Jersey:
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Kane – Draisaitl – Foegele
Janmark – McLeod – Gagner
Erne – Hamblin – Ryan
Brown
Nurse – Ceci
Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Desharnais
Gleason
Well braking up the white hot first line didn’t last long..
I don’t really have an issue with Brown in the press box, but maybe on the fourth line if better. Erne is ugh.
He’s not getting hammered on the +/- though
“We’re the Edmonton Oilers – we have two of the top 5 players in hockey, a decent supporting top 6 and reasonable defence – but we can’t seem to put together a shutdown 3rd line ever, and our goalies make each game an adventure”.
Top heavy.
Below average bottom 6.
Average, at best, D
Worst goaltending in the league.
Not a recipe for success.
Thanks Tips. Your posts are the best 🙂
My assessment is this. If you aren’t top heavy at least somewhat, it means you lack elite talent, or will soon be top heavy at least to a degree
The Oilers are affected by a few roster spots, because they are key, more than the players aren’t good enough. Other than Campbell, the Oiler’s goalies are as good as many team’s
No team has all the best players at their position, it’s not possible. What is different is time to develop a team structure, and the GM creating a balanced roster, which is actually at the heart of the Oilers not being what they should
And possibly the Oiler’s top players have yet to develop the right mindset and discipline, in function as opposed to words, and that’s a different issue
I think the target is Merzlinkins.
Columbus has not been great this year despite big changes and could use draft capital.
Broberg + non first rounder + Campbell for Merzlinkins.
Columbus divests itself of Elvis and his contract, gets some draft capital and can buy Campbell out in the summer (or maybe rehab him)
Maybe it’s a summer trade but they can’t afford to flush this season.
I could see something like this going down. Merzlikins potentially could really do well but still some questions… Last night effort from the oil as LT stated was encouraging in overall play. Skinner needs a partner, I like Merz. track record (aside from last year, circumstances there) Broberg is being worked right now so trade the player…though i dont like it…waste
This rumor makes me furious.
You previously reported that it takes 9-12 D in a regular season
This team has been extremely lucky to have a relatively healthy D corps.
You can shoot special teams to the moon, and sure.
But the lack of 5v5 scoring continues to be an issue for this team.
That 3rd line needs to pot a couple.
At least Gagner had a good chance or 2
@Darren Robillard
Nolan Patrick has officially retired from the National Hockey League, after 4 seasons.
Nolan Patrick, 25, drafted 2nd overall in 2017 by the Philadelphia Flyers. He played only 4 seasons in his NHL career, battling serious concussion issues he was never able to reach his full potential. In 222 games he had 32 goals, 45 assists, and 77 points in his career.
Ah that sucks. I hate to see anyone get wiped out by injuries.
Feel bad for the kid. But definitely time to move on
Unless we’re ensconced in a playoff spot I’m doing zero for now. I’d love another right winger for the top 6, but again, until we’re showing that we’re set for the playoffs there’s no point spending assets we might want in the summer.
Sucks we lost last night, but that struck me as one of those “games at the end of a losing streak that looks like you should have won”. NJ next, not exactly an insurmountable powerhouse. NYR and ANOTHER elite Russian goalie awaits after that though .
Onward.
I’ve said this before, but I really hope Oilers management is not looking at Mrazek. I followed this guy in Toronto and he was an absolute disaster there. Could never stay healthy, unreliable, many soft goals, poor stats in two consecutive years plus a nearly $4M caphit. Just no!
Second, whether you think Skinner is capable or not, its so damning that Oilers management has now gone 5 straight years without properly addressing goaltending (the most important position in all of hockey).
The Oilers have never had consistent, reliable goaltending since the last good year of Cam Talbot. That is 5 solid years of McDrai wasted because management would rather spend its cap signing dumb contracts like the Kassian extension, Nurse extension, Brown bonus, etc. instead of STARTING with the most vital need – a good goalie. So, I don’t personally blame Skinner (who is a backup 1B in my mind), I blame management and I deem the Holland era a failure to date.
The choice of Campbell over Kuemper, as covered by DNB, is another failure and a big reason why we’re here today.
Bang a gong!
Mrazek only played 1 season in Toronto.
It was easily the worst season of his career.
No way you can judge what he is based on those 20 games.
And his $1.9M (once 50% is retained) is pretty reasonable.
Here;s a wrinkle (YMMV). At thi time, if a trade is too onerous for Campbell alone – and buyout is our fallback – an we need to resolve the Broberg dilemma as well as cap issues for next year plus…
Trade Campbell to someone willing to take the buyout hit, retained money after buyout calculations by new team in the same neighborhood as current buyout hit with KULAK as the sweetener rather than Broberg. Let Broberg get his apprenticeship on the third pairing now. Question is would Broberg or Kulak be the more optimal sweetener at this point? Between retained money and the Kulak or Broberg sweetener, how much more would we need to spend to accomplish this and is it worth it compared to hold and buyout?
What say you, fair lads and lasses?
Well, let’s see. Kulak turns 30 in a couple weeks. He’s playing under 15 minutes a night, has played every game with boxcars of 1-2-3, -7. His cap hit is $2.75 million with 2 more years to run. Is he a sweetener, a second cap dump, or something in between.
He does some nice things but I don’t see his *contract* — which is what is being traded — as having much positive value to a potential suitor.
Fair enough, good sir. Just blue skying as it would open an opportunity for Broberg in this scheme… trying to see if there is a palatable way to accomplish both the Broberg and Campbell situations in one stroke! Is there another way you can see to use this approach for good instead of bad?
Trade Campbell and Kulak …. then add the sweetener of 3 – 1st Round picks … 🙂
Maybe Kenny can grind it down to 2- 1st and a 2nd for Kulak and Campbell retained. For any G.M that would trade for Kulak and Campbell would be trading back a near Huberdeau contract.
Saros seems like a gigantic pipe dream. But when you have a window in pro sports, you need to burn your fuel reserves.
I’d overpay to hell to get Saros, it just seems impossible to me.
What are we talking here? Campbell, Broberg, 2023 & 2024 firsts plus? I just can’t see it, we don’t have the right youth/prospect/picks package to offer.
Broberg and 2 1sts might be the cost to dispose of Campbell.
THIRTY ONE!!
General managers for the Oilers to phone and obtain a freaking real number One goalie – and, exactly like the Detroit 2X instead of 4-5X champions Detroit Red Wings of the 90’s and 00’s Holland’s team refuses to address the glaring issue.
My math skills aren’t good, but Sather regularly kept the dynasty on the case by turning over his players to the tune of maybe 20-25% a season.
1st round picks, prospects, 3rd and 4th round picks, roster players are all there as collateral. This team is dying, like it’s about to become road kill.
ps: Aside from incompetence-ville where in the world does Jack Campbell get a 25 million contract??
Very few teams have depth in goaltending as injuries strike.
One exception is the Calgary Flames.
.901
.883
.886
The Oilers have goaltending depth too. Just that neither team has quality.
1: The Oilers goaltending hasn’t been good enough this season
2: Skinner looks to be an NHL goaltender who’s struggling in his second year — flushing him now would be a mistake
Right now, the Oilers need to significantly outplay and out-chance the opposition in order to win — they lose close games, largely due to goaltending.
And it’s not that Skinner is consistently letting in absolute stinkers, but if the opposition is scoring on every B-level scoring chance then winning consistently isn’t going to happen.
The Vegas game is a good example. The Oilers controlled most of the game and should have won in regulation. Vegas was down by two in the third and only generated 2 / 3 scoring chances — none of which were “unstoppable” tap ins or cross crease plays. They scored twice.
Were there stretches of play where Vegas had possession of the puck in the offensive zone? Yes.
Were there examples where the Oilers were a little slow, lose positioning, or otherwise allow a dangerous shot to be taken? Also yes.
But expecting to go against an elite NHL team in a close game and not allow a single scoring chance in the third period isn’t a reasonable expectation.
It feels like the Oilers need to dominate play in order to win. If scoring chances are close to 50 / 50 they lose.
They don’t need a goaltender to steal games for them to win consistently. They need NHL goaltending. Goaltending that’s good enough to win games where possession / scoring chances are close.
You cannot blame Skinner too much.
Freaking sophomore who’s probably done more hard grafting than 90% of NHL players with similar experience.
I agree. He’s in his second year and should be focusing on being a successful 1b while working alongside a solid veteran.
The Oilers organization has not put him in a position to succeed — that he’s done as well as he has is to his credit.
Goaltending is a position of weakness for the Oilers but that’s on Holland, not Skinner.
Wings just lost both their other two goalies to injury. I haven’t heard their prognosis but Seravalli reported last night that due to the injuries, Reimer is not on the market right now.
There happen to be another thirty other NHL teams with which to deal with. Several who have exactly what the Oilers want, and whom are willing to deal for what Oilers are offering.
What we have here is management who are stupidly trying to get value out of Jack Campbell, while Leon I wear my heart on my sleeve Draisaitl is openly deciding whether or not he wishes to remain an Oiler after his current contract runs dry in 1.5 years.
But don’t worry.
I’m sure some smart well run team like Boston will provide a 2nd and 3rd pairing defencemen set, a 1st round pick in the 20’s, plus some middling forward to keep us all busy guessing when Leon is traded.
Boston gets a top 5 NHL centerman, in his prime and makes out like bandits.