One of the things we’re being told currently is that a team pushing for the Stanley Cup can’t afford to play rookies and young pro players. Too many mistakes, they say. This is the list of 1989-90 Oilers rookies. Geoff Smith was a regular contributor on defense, Martin Gelinas an emerging talent. Vladimir Ruzicka? He was a splendid offensive player with no interest in playing without the puck.
The Oilers picked him up from the Toronto Maple Leafs, brought him over, placed him with (iirc) Esa Tikkanen and Jari Kurri for a time, and watched the goals go in to both nets. Plus minus doesn’t tell everything, but that season Kurri finished +18, Tikkanen +17, and Ruzicka -21. So, you can’t win a Stanley with all rookies.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: How much has Oilers trading prospects and picks actually hurt?
- DNB: Stuart Skinner takes blame as goaltending leads to end of Oilers’ win streak
- Lowetide: Are the Edmonton Oilers able to make a strong trade this season?
- Lowetide: 3 young Edmonton Oilers prospects looking for full-time duty
- DNB: Calvin Pickard’s play and improved defending give Oilers time to make a goalie trade
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ 4 most famous midseason demotions in franchise history
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Evan Bouchard has the points. But is his recent defensive uptick legit?
- Lowetide: Oilers organizational depth chart reveal elite centres, real needs
- DNB: Oilers’ Philip Broberg seeking trade, per source: Why he could be on the move
- DNB: The Oilers penalty kill has finally found its groove. What’s changed?
- Lowetide: What do the Edmonton Oilers still need to be a Stanley Cup contender?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- At home to: CAR, MIN, NJD, CHI, TBAY, FLA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 4-2-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, SJS, LAK, ANA (Expected 3-3-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-0, 12 points in 12 games
- Actual December results: 4-3-0, 8 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 13-15-1, 27 points in 29 games
The Oilers are seven points back of the final playoff spot, with two games in hand. You can’t count those as victories, and seven points is about three weeks for a normal NHL team. The Oilers are capable of closing that gap in a single heartbeat. They’ve shown it. Still, the 4-0-0 start was like a dream to a movie, turning instantly to horror—cut to crumbling guardrail, slow motion, cars fall. Tonight would be a great night for the Oilers to begin another winning streak. I don’t like their chances in Manhattan.
WHADDA YOU GOT THAT’S NEW?
The Oilers have employed two rookies this season. James Hamblin (2-1-3 in 19 games) is experiencing his rookie season and that’s a victory for the scouts. I know at least one of you mocked my framing of this procurement as a victory for the scouts, but for me it’s exactly that, a win for the scouting staff. Noah Philp was another, along with the scout who discovered Vincent Desharnais playing for Chilliwack a decade ago and tracked him.
I think Raphael Lavoie is NHL-ready but the Oilers are being patient, maybe they see him as a Ruzicka type player. I think Lavoie is far more responsible, reflected in his 10-8 goal share at even strength this year and 47-33 totals a year ago.
Xavier Bourgault is now 10-9 goals at even strength this season, after going 37-25 last season. Bourgault is not scoring as hoped (3-6-9 in 20 games) and is not ready for recall. Tyler Tullio, who scored last night and is 1-3-4 through six games, is having more offensive impact (3-2 even strength goals). Carter Savoie is coming along now, he’s 1-2-3 in his last four games. I had a conversation with a friend not long ago, he was writing Savoie off as a prospect. I hope he saw that play and pass to Jayden Grubbe last night. Sweet play.
The two players I would focus on were I sending reports to management from Bakersfield? Philip Broberg and Olivier Rodrigue.
Broberg can wheel out there and often does. He’s making strong plays at both ends of the ice. His offense (1-3-4 in nine games) is fine, and his even strength goal share is 10-4 on the season. I know Broberg is getting buried among the ‘intelligentsia’ online, but by eye and number young Broberg is pummeling the AHL and no longer belongs there.
Olivier Rodrigue was brilliant last night and now owns a .938 save percentage. Oilers management has deemed Jack Campbell’s starts more important than prospect development, so it may be some time before we see Rodrigue again. For the record, his save percentages by game this season: .969, .968, .902, .919, .926, .938 and .950 last night. If the Oilers allowed him to play more games (perish the thought!), Rodrigue would qualify as a regular and his .938 save percentage would place him No. 1 on the list. That would also be ahead of Jesper Wallsted (.922) and Dustin Wolf (.919). Based on what I’m reading from some Oilers fans, Wallsted may be the first prospect to get to the Hockey Hall of Fame before actually playing in the NHL.
Instead of rookies, Ken Holland’s roster has many veterans signed around the minumum. The big downside is these men won’t be better players a year from now. They’ll be slower, less able to do what they could provably do previously, and susceptible to cratering when the team is unable to cast about for replacements (mid-season). Here’s how that group is doing now (all numbers five-on-five):
- Sam Gagner: 2.16 pts-60, 9:49 per game, 54 pct goal share, 58 pct x-goals
- Mattias Janmark: 1.50 pts-60, 10:31 per game, 35 pct goal share, 58 pct x-goals
- Derek Ryan: 1.00 pts-60, 8:14 per game, 46 pct goal share, 55 pct x-goals
- Adam Erne: 0.66 pts-60, 7:34 per game, 67 pct goal share, 54 pct x-goals
- Connor Brown: 0.22 pts-60, 12:06 per game, 20 pct goal share, 50 pct x-goals
Huh. I get that Connor Brown has been poor, and the 20 percent goal share is a big reason he’s being healthy scratched tonight (along with the whole ‘he hasn’t scored yet’ thing), but the expected goals are above 50 percent for Brown and the entire group. Janmark’s actual goal share is way off the expected total, given enough time the tides would roll him closer to par. Brown? I don’t think his timing is there and the only way to get it back is to play him.
In a way, Brown has arrived at the same spot as Lavoie. He isn’t trusted. The flying Ruzicka’s are growing in number on this roster, but credit to Sam Gagner. That fellow is shining like a diamond.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we’ll preview the Oilers-Devils and speak to Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation. We’ll have a long look at what the Oilers can do after the roster freeze, and what they might do (two totally different things). We’ll preview TNF and more. I can be reached at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Enjoying this game but hot darn! The Rangers are sure good at protecting the middle of the ice… This is a great challenge.
Can anyone explain how to post a picture here? I have one of the scoreboard at The Rock but cannot figure out how to post it! Thanks in advance.
You need to upload to a host, find the link for the image only, and post that link in the comment. Depending on the host, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt. Sometime you get flagged as spam.
Stauffer won’t shut-up about EDM’s xGF%. It’s as if he thinks it has more predictive value than GF%. By 30 games, it’s basically a wash in terms of both having a similar R2 to 82 GP GF%. But to be clear, neither measure is predictive.
Which is the real team? The one with 58 xGF%? The one with 48 GF%? Or the team with a league-worst goal differential above expected (-32)? An AVERAGE team would be 32 goals better in GF% given EDM’s xGF%. The xGF% means we are working hard and the ice is tilting. Half of EDM’s below expected problem is poor finishing in high-danger areas. The other half is saving.
Wednesday on Oilers Now Friedman was pretty quick to suggest to Stauffer that relying solely on public xGF% might not be the best evaluation of any team. Friedman also mentioned that he spoke to some other teams who had private analytics showing that under Knoblauch there are still defensive coverage issues, and that the other big problem is goaltending.
The plague from the first month is still with the team. It’s just less pronounced.
Goaltending, you don’t say…
Goaltending is definitely the biggest issue but the team has a bottom 5 sh%. It is weird.
Do you have a link or something showing xGF% is no better than GF%?
I posted an article from 2015 earlier in this thread which showed xGF% as about twice as predictive/correlated as GF% after 30 games. I’d be happy to know if there’s new info that disagrees.
Also, what do you mean by ‘neither measure is predictive’? Is there are certain threshold of correlation that needs to be met to call something predictive? Or do you mean nothing is truly ‘predictive’?
Haha. There’s a pile of people on here who don’t believe anything predicts anything. People say “you run an analytics blog” and I say “no sir” because it’s a blog of wildly differing opinions. From the Edsel to George Jetson and back again.
For sure. Some opinions are better supported than others though – just trying collect information and figure what’s most relevant.
That’s the nature of discussing numbers in hockey. Their interpretation is subjective.
By “predictive” I do not mean my beliefs. Analytics in hockey are not predicitve by scientific standards.
Public analytics are definitely Edsel. This is what Friedman was trying to tell Stauffer on Oilers Now.
As the size of the sample grows (GP) GF% becomes more highly correlated to future GF%. It has nothing to do with better or worse. I’m not applying any value judgment.
On Decemeber 22, 2022 the R2 values to 5v5 82 GP GF% for the 2022-2023 season were:
xGF%0.60
GF%0.81
Values in hockey analytics for predicting future states are very low compared to sports like baseball. Serious analysts will not point at any of these values (xGF%, GF%, SH%, PDO, etc) and say “look these are predictive”, that EDM’s xGF% means more than GF%.
By predictive I mean regression values to future states. None of this is my opinion or value judgment. It’s fact based on the criteria and methods established by analytics.
Here are values for 5v5 xGF% and GF% to 82 GP PTS% for the 2018-2019 season, (sample at Decemeber 22, 2018).
xGF% 0.3173287245
GF% 0.3288356218
Here’s another version for last season showing 82 GP GF% and 82 GP PTS%
Yes, I’ve read that article from DTMAH before.
“The first test consists of an in/out sample to determine how past results predict future results at the team level.”
This is different than selecting a date and predicting end of season values from that date. The highest value in that table for teams is 0.3.
This is really, frankly, where analytics is lying to you. Is a value of 0.3 or 0.4 more or less predictive or meaningful than values of 0.5 or 0.6? There is a correct answer. And that answer is that none of those values are predictive.
But don’t believe me. Ask a sports data scientist who’s willing to be honest with you, like Michael E. Schuckers.
The Oilers need to make some additions in goal, on defense and up front. That certainly hasn’t changed. The only thing that has changed is Broberg as an option on defense. They needed to play him lots in the first 30 games.
Average saving has the Oilers with 17 less GA, while average finishing would have them with 6 goals more. I would say the saving part is a massive concern.
Last season EDM got lucky, and Skinner saved them. Pretty much everyone had concern about goaltending coming into this season, which is a crucial one.
They didn’t buy-out Campbell in the windows. I don’t know how they could take that risk.
Regarding Broberg, the defense has been such a mess, does it help him to play these past 30 games? I get that a young D needs to play. But on this team? With this pressure? I’m just not certain it helps him. I don’t know. I would trust your opinion more than mine based on your decades of sports analysis, but look at the problems Bouchard was having the first 10 games.
32 goals below expected on the season is terrible. Since Knoblauch, the OIlers are about 7 goals below expected, with one coming from finishing and six coming from saving.
Mixed emotions about that win. Happy for the W, but the Devils score on their first half decent chance of the game, and the team falls apart again.
But they didn’t cause they won.
Finishing up watching highlights. Bolts Knights. The coaches should use that as video for the lads, how to create offense in heavy traffic
watched it. best game of the year so far.
Most sports use set plays. I have no idea why in the NHL they do PPs by ‘feel’.
It’s the only stationary part of the game. The Oilers by now should have a stable of them and be unstoppable. Only outrageous saves should be the wildcard
They had literally the greatest power play of all time last year with the same personnel. Not one single team in the history of the game has ever done it better.
Was at the game tonight, my first in person NHL game after 4 decades of Oilerdom on the tube. Two things that stood out to me is how quiet that barn is, and hockey seems so much slower watching it up above. Can’t wait for MSG tomorrow 🤞
Glad you got to go. I’m sure tomorrow will be more exciting
MSG is not quiet!
I agree, it was quiet. Fans were great, sound a lot like Oiler fans. Goalies suck, defensemen suck, paid too much money…..
It was my first time there, seems like a small rink.
Yeah pretty small, nice place though. Fantastic scoreboard, almost the size of the neutral zone
The scoreboard is something, I agree. I could not believe the food prices. I guess I am used to Islander games or eating before I get to MSG. A pastrami sandwich was over $25! A can of beer was $15.
Pic with the same SV% and far fewer shots against as his counterpart, both sub 9
One would think one would want a look at the hottest G available, for free
I couldn’t watch the game and just saw highlights. It was easy, tons of open looks, but very nice to see some patient, quality finishing
Very nice. Let’s see some more tomorrow. Tired shmired. Playoffs or not? Set yourself up for a Merry Christmas lads!
Gratitude is a thought that benefits mental health
So I’m grateful that for everything I’ve through as an Oiler fan, I’m not a Leafs fan
Samsonov is getting skewered tonight by the Leafs MSM – they are going to drive up the goalie market further. More reason why the Oilers need to look at their internal options like Pickard and Rodrigue. Any one know if/when Fanti is going to be back?
Weird game but the right team came away with the 2 points
Another 2 tomorrow makes the holidays more pleasant for everyone
god speed Stu
Marino with his best saloon door impression tonight.
Hate to see it…
Nothing feels better than catastrophizing the Oilers season only for them to pump the other team in the third.
No Hamilton, and a boatload of rookie and sophomore defensemen.
yes, but you are screaming to play the rookies !
Broberg isn’t a rookie. And he is draft + 5. Hughes and Nemec are rookies and D+1 or D+2.
Holloway isn’t a rookie.
Lavoie is on his 2nd contract.
There are rookies, and then there are rookies.
Devils fans I sat with spoke of Hamilton like people here speak of Nurse. Not friendly.
Look at the Devils record this year vs. the Devils record last year.
Take Nurse off the Oilers, and we are in San Jose territory.
There is a time and a place to change the narrative … or change the season.
Tomorrow is a scheduled loss …. BUT
I think we need to see Skinner play a top notch game and give Edm a chance ….
Devils are a Mickey Mouse organization
Having beaten the Devils for both his wins this season, Pickard should be dubbed “The Exorcist”.
Indeed – a Calvinist minister?
What a revelation. The Oilers are reformed and Calvin’s victories preordained.
Uses Calgon.
Quality start from Calm Cal.
Real up and down game by the skaters, but they found their finish in the 3rd and were able to shut them down from there. Hopefully they can build on it tomorrow.
And they avert Nobby .500 for at least a couple games more.
What do you mean? They were 10-6 under Knoblauch coming in, 11-6 now.
The ESPN crew mentioned the Oilers were 5-3 in each of their first two 8-game segments under Knoblauch (who told them on arrival they just needed to go 5-3 in every 8 game segment to make the playoffs).
Sorry, would’ve been in the last sixteen game span. Lose tonight and tomorrow and they would’ve been 8-8. Not Nobby .500 but rather since he had turned the team around (the three game win streak). Forgot that I had moved the starting point to give him a chance to take the reins.
Still don’t think that’s quite right, but it’s all good.
They said it on the radio and it sounded right, so I took a quick glance to see why that starting point. But now I look at it on a calendar sked, you’re right. That claim is out by two losses so please disregard.
Nobby has a tough enough uphill climb without making the slope steeper on him lol
Well, this crow tourtiere is pretty good!
Gotta admit, didn’t see that onslaught coming, nor the Oileresque gaffes by the Devils D.
Good confidence and momentum boost for tomorrow vs Rags.
Agreed. I thought they were done when NJ scored third goal. Give them credit they fought back for the two points.
They needed that win.
Impressive 3rd period.
Let’s see what they can do tomorrow. Looks like we may see Gleason make his Oilers debut.
How sweet it is..!
hopefully Ryan is okay
If he and Samwise are out tomorrow, that would be a bit of a pickle.
I suppose Gleason could dress in an 11/7, technically, but far from ideal.
Was Gagner hurt too?
Friendly fire high stick. Did not return.
Hopefully he was just being sewn up or something. and while I’m at it, hopefully just a stinger for Ryan.
100% on both counts. One or both could definitely be fine to go tomorrow.
Ryan sure takes a lot of hard knocks. That one looked bad, head and neck. I will be amazed if he dresses tomorrow, but if he does it wouldn’t be the first he’s surprised me.
Just one time I’d like someone to step-up for him.
Ryan got hit hard there ….looked like shoulder …
Yea that didn’t look good. Guess Brown back in tomorrow.
Sabres put up a 9 on the Leafs…..
would have liked to 10
hee hee!
That’s a shame.
Didn’t Columbus just score 9 against the Sabres the other night? Coach must have had effective words after that one.
McLeod is a top six winger.
Glad the coaches have caught up.
Cool. So now they’re back to having too many wingers and no legit 3C.
At least they’re winning. Tomorrow’s problem I suppose.
Dylan Holloway is a center by pedigree.
Picard made a very nice save on a tip moments before that goal.
Excellent timing 👌
There can be only fun.
Maybe McLeod IS a winger?
Creates a problem down the lineup but if he does it for a few games and gets him going. I’ll take the trade off.
Another horrific turnover and McLeod patiently finishes. Looks like he’s sleeping with his stick again.
everything is coming up Millhouse!!!
Mcleod with his 2nd!!
McLeod heater!
Erne has looked good tonight. I wonder if he stays in the lineup for tomorrow’s game.
Probably depends on Gagner and Ryan’s health.
Umm… no, Ray. That would be Seaweed.
Ray Ferraro
blind cross ice pass by Foggy. This is the kind of thing you cannot do with the lead.
To be fair, Foggy also does it when the game is even and the boys are trailing too.
to be fair, you could point that finger at everyone in the line up with the possible exception of Janmark
I’m not sure Foegele should be getting shifts right now – he’s a liability tonight.
He’s been excellent on the forecheck
IT’S A GUSHER!!!
I am quite used to having a one or two goal lead and then, minutes later, trailing – this feels, better.
Bert.
OMFG!
Lovely goal by Erne after Draisaitl deposits a nice on off the turnover.
Erne makes up for his poor play in the 2nd and justifies the coach’s decision. Good work, lad.
Thank you, Ray.
ESPN commentator, Ray Ferraro.
The only thing more absurd than 29’s backhand is his backhand pass.
I can’t believe Erne actually got another shift after his play on the 3rd goal against.
Erne!!!
LoL!
Erne!
Oiler-like giveaway by the Devs and Leon backhands one top cheese for the lead
And there’s the other half of the Dynamic Duo!
McLeod with Drai is something I like.
hee hee!!
Connor McPatient!
Its shocking to hear that he only has 12 goals….
Woot WOOT!!! McDavid ties it up!