Olivier Rodrigue is finally qualified as a regular AHL goaltender. After last night’s impressive performance, he ranks No. 1 in the entire league in save percentage. I think running him as the starter through end January in Bakersfield is a great idea, and then a start or two in the NHL should be considered. It isn’t impossible, you know, for Rodrigue to emerge as a real solution for these Edmonton Olers 2023-24. Do the Oilers believe in their own prospects? That’s a question worth asking.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ranking the Edmonton Oilers’ top 6 trade assets
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
RODRIGUE AS AN OPTION
I don’t think the Oilers will trust sophomore Stuart Skinner and rookie Olivier Rodrigue (should he play in the NHL this season it will be as a rookie) with the net down the stretch and into the playoffs.
That doesn’t mean Rodrigue won’t have an impact on this NHL season. A February audition with the big club, should it go well, puts the young goalie in the mix for starts down the stretch and into the postseason. I suspect Edmonton will trade for James Reimer or similar (Reimer has had a tough outing recently so his save percentage is .897; his five-on-five save perentage is .899, so you’d want him to post some strong outings in the next couple of months), but no matter who they acquire goaltending will be a topic of discussion in Edmonton all winter and into spring.
I wish the Oilers trusted their young players, but we have mounting evidence this isn’t the case. When Jay Woodcroft took over as coach, there was a watershed of young players who either made the NHL grade or increased their role if already then when the Condors coach arrived in the NHL.
That’s important, because it increases the talent pool and gives the general manager options. However, the deployment of Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie and Rodrigue suggests to me management has sealed off the wall between Bakersfield and Edmonton ala “The Cask of Amontillado.”
It may be a trick, but I don’t think the Oilers will recognize who is being walled in before it’s too late. I wrote about Rodrigue and other young assets here.
The dessert match-up is a lowlight affair: Pats vs the Broncs. Broncos go as Russell Wilson goes and the Pats go as Belichick’s defense goes.
Wilson is 3-0 regular season v Belichick, but famously 0-1 in the post-season. He’s coming off last week’s shellacking by the Lions where he went 18 of 32 and 1 TD 0 INTs.
Pats have moved on from Mac Jones at QB and have been starting Zappe for the past couple of weeks and, unlike Jones, he hasn’t looked utterly awful. 23 of 31 last week with 1 TD and 1 INT in a loss to KC.
Rumours abound that Belichick’s time in NE has finally come to an end.
Anyways, I get to eat the first half of my Christmas Potato in a few minutes, and I’m far more excited about that than I am this game.
Two turnovers on the first five plays of the game, two missed field goals inside the two minute warning and the Broncs & Pats are bringing down the house 10-3 at the half.
Granted the field goal attempts were from 57 yards out and its pretty cold on a December night in Denver.
And the winners of the CB Radio Bowl (ten-four good buddy) are the Fish who go to 11-4. Exciting finish in what was a tight game that turned out to be a battle of the defenses, in particular the defensive lines.
McCarthy’s decision not to kick the field goal on the opening drive loomed large on the scoreboard all game and in the end [proved to be the difference in the loss as they got completely out-field-goaled. He is not the coach you want to rely on in close games.
That takes some pressure of the Eagles and things don’t get easier for the Cowboys from here. they have the Lions next week but at least they’re playing at JerryWorld.
Dolphins have the Ravens and then the Bills on the final weekend when they might be playing for the division title.
One has to wonder how long the Jags will continue to tie their hopes to Trevor Lawrence. He loses 30-12 against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs.
I think the solution in goal should and has to be from within the organization – aka by the end of this season, or early next season they need to be running Skinner-Rodrigue. Trust your scouts and pro development coaches to get the job done here. Don’t go whale hunting.
If they can get Rodrigue there in the next couple of months, then by the deadline you know you have a cost efficient duo and can divert cap space to getting a RHD upgrade on Ceci instead.
That said – it’s too early for that, and there is a decent chance that Pickard gets taken off waivers if he’s sent down right now, given a number of teams are looking for a goalie due to injuries or underperformance (e.g. Detroit, Toronto, LA, Carolina). If that were to happen, then the Oilers would be one injury away from needing to call Campbell back to the NHL, and Bakersfield would be a mess with Campbell the de facto starter.
Is there any update on Fanti? When he’s ready to go, he should back up Rodrigue. Then give Campbell the choice of a demotion to the ECHL or to be LTIR’d on Robidas Island for the rest of the season. After this season, he can stay on LTIR and go deal with his mental health issues, or get bought out and lose 1/3 of the money owing to him.
Jackson owes Campbell nothing – I see no reason why material assets like our prospects or first round picks should be used to rid ourselves of him his cap hit, if our former-agent POHO does his job.
I do agree that the need to get Rodrigue some games this season – he’s earned the opportunity and there is every reason to think he could give them as good a chance to win on any given night as Pickard. He’s waivers eligible next season and it behooves them to see how he looks at the NHL level and for the player himself to experience what the NHL game is like.
At the same time, yes, there is waiver risk right now on Pickard given his league min cap hit.
I think Fanti has been on the ice and practicing with the Oilers (or at least has been in a couple of practices). No idea how close he is to being activated but I don’t imagine he plays anywhere other than the ECHL.
The choice you give Campbell doesn’t really work in reality as he could say not to the ECHL and you can’t just place a healthy player on LTIR – ya, the rules can be stretched, as we’ve seen, but this is not something you can force him to do with doctor sign off. I’m not sure the insurer is looking to pick up a $17MM expense without some diligence.
Nope, Jackson owes Campbell nothing but this isn’t about “doing his job” – you are asking him to do something that is more likely than not, impossible.
Fine – then make it clear you’re buying him out this summer. He loses a third of his remaining salary. No one in their right mind is giving him another NHL contract or letting him play another game in the NHL. His career is effectively over anyways.
If it were Lou Lamoriello or Vegas, no one would bat an eye if all of a sudden Campbell’s contract disappeared into the LTIR ether.
The league, the doctors, the insurance company agreeing the pay the contract, etc.
While it may make sense to hold off on sending Pickard back down until the teams with goalie injury issues solve those problems first, I’d much rather risk losing Pickard on waivers this season than risk losing Rodrigue on waivers next season. In other words, it is imperative that the Oilers give Rodrigue some NHL games this year to see what they’ve got.
I always mention on comments that as Oiler fans we are not used to the prospect’s being walled up by vets. We are used to throwing them over the board’s at the first sign of readiness more on a need basis then a want to.
I remember years of lets check out if this shiny new prospect can play. the last example was Bouchards audition . Broberg almost got into games in the bubble 2.
we are in a differnt world then i am used to
like throwing Leon @ #2C (in 2014) when he was 18. Shockingly he wasn’t ready.
Broberg and Lavoie are draft+5. Nobody is suggesting Akey or Bourgault.
Cowboys are just not a button-down team which is a signature of their coach, McCarthy. They fumble on the goal line on a fifteen play drive and it’s Miami ball.
Well CeeDee came to play.
In a previous comment I wrote:
“Stauffer won’t shut-up about EDM’s xGF%. It’s as if he thinks it has more predictive value than GF%. By 30 games, it’s basically a wash in terms of both having a similar R2 to 82 GP GF%. But to be clear, neither measure is predictive.”
To which I received a reply from JP:
“Do you have a link or something showing xGF% is no better than GF%?
And from Lowetide
“Haha. There’s a pile of people on here who don’t believe anything predicts anything. People say “you run an analytics blog” and I say “no sir” because it’s a blog of wildly differing opinions. From the Edsel to George Jetson and back again.”
These are questions that I view a fundamental to analytics. So, I compiled some data and plotted the results.
The following charts show R2 values to 82 GP 5v5 GF% and 82 GP PTS% for NHL teams over the useful body of advanced stats (2009-2023). Only 82 GP seasons are included. Data was sampled at months-end for each season and R2 was measured against 82 GP GF% and PTS%.
The redline shows R2 value of 0.75, which means that below this line greater than 25% in the variability of data is not explained by the “model” (the term is use loosely here).
The relative value of each measure in relation to desired outcomes (5v5 GF% or allsituations PTS%) changes with the amount of GP, and the the date in the calendar year.
Some proponents of advanced stats under-estimate the relative value of GF% and PDO in relation to season-end results. Although as a model, GF% is over-simplified, later in the calendar year it out-performs actual models like xGF%. Critics will likely argue that goals should NOT be used to predict goals. I’m fine with that. But the over-all predictive weakness of all models (known to serious analysts) should be noted by readers of this site.
Excellent work. Thanks for this.
One takeaway for me is that SCF% has more predictive power than xGF%.
Scoring chances are the data point I rely on with smaller samples.
JP posted a reply yesterday on the predictive strength of GF vs xGF percentages.
I, for one, am shocked that goal-for percentage correlates tightly with goal-for percentage.
SHOCKED.
I think you missed an “x”.
xGF% = expected Goals For %
GF% = Actual Goals For %
……. I think ….
You are missing the point. The whole reason corsi, Fenwick and xG were created was because goals were supposed to be too rare of an event to get a large enough sample size to be a good predictor. The theory behind those stats is they should correlate better to GF% earlier in the season. But as Bituman is showing they don’t. So why the hell are people using them?
That’s not why those stats were created/collected.
Excellent work! Thank you! Reminiscent of the days when (IIRC) Dellow and other math types hung out around here.
Thanks for this. I noticed it a few years ago low tech just by looking at the standings just before playoffs. A team’s position lines up pretty evenly with Goal Diff. Goal Diff incorporates a lot of information germane to winning that you can’t likely quantify like coaching and morale, maybe even health. PDO catches quality and streaks and of course is a big part of GF%, it makes sense that it becomes the second best ‘model’
Right now in the West the only team not in a playoff position with a positive GF% is us. Everyone else in the red. The East has some anomalies, but that will probably sort out as we go along
About 20 years ago, I read some Bill James where he looked at run differential to see how much of a relationship it had with winning ball games. He called it Pythagorean Win%: R2 / (R2 + RA2)
It turned out that here’s just about a direct line between the two. I was curious, and did the same thing for hockey, for 77,000 games, and the difference between Win% and Pythagorean Win% was miniscule; something like 0.006 between them.
Well, I lost the spreadsheet somewhere along the line, but spent 5 minutes looking at the last 10 years of Oilers numbers, and it continues to hold up:
https://imgur.com/JCJncdY
For anybody who doesn’t want to click on the embedded image, Pythagorean Win% predicts that in the last 10 seasons the Oilers, based on 2,308 GF and 2,401 GA, would have won 373 hockey games, which is exactly what they did.
On a yearly basis, it was sometimes a perfectly accurate prediction of how many games they would win, and sometimes it was off by 2 or 3 because, you know… Shit happens in hockey games. Either way, Bill James found a direction relationship between runs scored and runs allowed, and the same thing holds up in hockey.
This reminds me of what Georgesx was always harping on. If a statistic doesn’t correlate to points then it is useless. The whole point of statistics is to predict the future. Often simple formulas are better predictors of complex systems (Kahneman).
There are some basic fundamentals of statistics that are absent from a lot of analytics.
Thanks for this, but I realize there’s a pretty big flaw in the correlations/R2 values you’re posting here (and the ones I posted on Friday).
The issue is that GF% at whatever point of the year is a component of the full year GF% number, so it’s a partly circular comparison. For instance the Dec. 22nd GF% number (that we were both using the other day) makes up about 40% of the full year GF% number, which inflates the GF%-GF% correlation more than the others.
We are (at least I am) interested in what the Dec. 22nd numbers mean going forward. I know what the GF% was on Dec. 22nd. And along those lines, I believe the older work in this vein compared metrics at a given point of the season to ‘rest of season’ numbers rather than ‘full season” numbers.
The sample that I pulled the other day was just 3 seasons (18-19, 21-22 and 22-23; using Dec. 22nd numbers for each season) and I used all situations metrics rather than 5v5 like you are using.
Pooling the 3 seasons together, here are the R2 values for correlating the following measures on Dec. 22nd to REST of season GF% and PTS%:
R2 to GF% for:
PDO 0.18
HDCF% 0.32
CF% 0.40
FF% 0.42
SF% 0.43
SCF% 0.46
GF% 0.48
xGF% 0.49
R2 to PTS% for:
PDO 0.17
HDCF% 0.28
CF% 0.39
FF% 0.39
SF% 0.40
SCF% 0.42
GF% 0.45
xGF% 0.46
So none of the R2 are over 0.5, but xGF% does perform slightly better than GF% in predicting the rest of season numbers (and better than any of the other underlying metrics).
For comparison, the R2 for Dec. 22nd GF% and xGF% to FULL season (rather than REST of season) GF% and PTS% were:
For GF%:
GF% 0.77
xGF% 0.60
For PTS%
GF% 0.73
xGF% 0.56
It’s clear that using FULL vs. REST of season makes a huge difference, and that that’s the source of your GF% > xGF% conclusion (> meaning better correlated).
I’m using NST numbers btw. I don’t think either of us has mentioned the source of our data yet, so that could be another source of variability.
Seahawks beat Titans 20-17 ✅
Hawks are tough out as the Eagles found out last week. If Titans coach Vrabel gets fired at the end of the season, I think a long queue will form to hire him.
Lions-Vikes remains close late in the 4th. Six point game, but Lions ball. A championship team will run off most of the clock from here. We’ll see how well the Lions do running the ball, Vikes have a good D.
The afternoon slate features the day’s marquee match-up… the Cowboys have traveled to Miami to face Jason Gregor’s Dolphins. The Fish are favoured by 1.5 and are getting 55% of the action. That’s hard to do against the most popular team in the league.
The Cowboys are coming off a humiliating home loss to the Bills and need wins to prevent the Eagles from taking the division. The Dolphins get electrifying receiver Tyreek Hill back from injury, and with a game against the resurgent Bills in the final week of the season, also need wins. They’re hurting on the third layer with cornerback Howard and safety Holloway not expected to play.
Both teams have put up a ton of points. Miami coach McDaniel is off the Shanahan tree, which means they like lots of eye candy pre-snap and will run the ball till you stop it. And then they throw to Tyreek. Dallas allegedly also uses a west coast offense, but they lack the run conviction the west coast requires.
Cowboys could not stop the run last week and have struggled both on the road and against teams over .500. But they have their own weapons, the fastest defense in the league and their QB Prescott is having his best year. They’re a front-running team though that plays poorly when behind and McCarthy, their coach, is horrible managing the game inside the two minute warning.
That said, I think the Cowboys can win this. Even the lowly Chargers showed yesterday how NFL teams typically react after an embarrassing loss. They’ll need some early points and some scoring help from their defense to succeed, but that’s what their defense does. Tua isn’t good under pass pressure, a Cowboy specialty, so IF the Boys can stop the run on early downs, they can control this game.
Was there any doubt.
Can’t say I agree with the play-calling on the last two lions drives, but they got a Nick Mulli(ga)ns and managed to find a way.
And the Lions earn their first division championship in thirty years. And more importantly a home playoff game. The entire team including the coach owes Melifonwu a Christmas stocking for that interception which bailed them out inside the two minute warning.
It’s going to take me a month to grow these fingernails back.
To this outsider it seems like Sylvain Rodrigue gets good results as a coach. I felt that Olivier looked really good in preseason. Sylvain was sent from Edmonton to Bakersfield to work with his son and Skinner. Both have performed really well with in the AHL.
It makes me wonder if Sylvain should be in Edmonton again. We’re last in GSAx and bottom 4 in SV%. It feels like goalie coach is one area where we should have change.
Apparantly our goalie coach is a “made man” this entitles him to a lifetime position.
Rodrique should be given a cup of coffee this year just like Lavoie should of been last year. This will not happen under Hollands watch and with him skipping town soon he’ll be exciting leaving us prospect wise 10 times worse than what Peter pumpkin eater left before being sacked.
Who the hell are we replacing at RHD?
I think the consensus is we need a ‘Ceci upgrade’
Bouchard brings the offense and transition game, Desharnais bring the muscle and PK game, and (assuming) the transaction is in-season, we’ll need money going out as well (Ceci $3.25M)
We need a right handed Ekholm – I don’t see that player right now, but like Ekholm, perhaps that player becomes available closer to the deadline
Pesce.
Question is, can we afford him? And is it possible to convince him to stay as a UFA?
Kulak out and Broberg up gives us some dollars. Foegele out and Lavoie up would as well.
The Ceci upgrade would be:
1) Kulak out and Broberg to 3LD for cap space and, in fairly short order, not a large drop.
2) Ceci upgrade acquired.
3) Ceci to 3RD and Vinny to 7D.
The teams that appear to be the only viable trading partners in my mind appear to be Anaheim, San Jose, Chicago, Ottawa and Columbus.
In Anaheim I see Henrique, as the best target and Lybushkin as another (is he really an upgrade on Vinny?) and Cam Fowler as the only Ekholm on this team, but unless we are trading Ekholm, Fowler isn’t a target…
In SJ, I see Barabanov, Blackwood, Labanc, and Ruuta as poor, but potential targets.
In Chicago, I see Kurashev, Taylor Radysh, Mrazek, Tyler Johnson or Connor Murphy as potential targets. Not great targets, but Mrazek is the most realistic given his decent results and relationship with Holland.
I don’t see a match with CBJ, but you never know what could shake loose. I can’t see them letting go of Boone Jenner, him and Voronkov are the only players I’d be interested in and both are probably untouchable.
Ottawa is intriguing. How about any of Tarasenko, Giroux, Kubalik and the suspended Shane Pinto (will he ever play in the league again)?
First blood to the Lions on a monster-long statement drive. Colts and Cleveland also up by 7 early.
Vikings reply just as easily. This is going to be a heckuva game.
NFL announcers are idiots. This is at least the third time this season I’ve seen a 4th down interception praised when the smarter play is to bat the ball down, take the incompletion, and get even better field position.
I’m hoping the Oiler world changes for a step better when Holland moves out of the GM seat
I don’t think Jackson has taken the reigns, even if he has final say and maybe Ken doesn’t have carte blanch, if he ever did. But this all in vets only thing has to change
The next GM needs to have a more diverse way of operating. It is possible to develop rookies, keep a healthy mix of youthful energy and vet experience
I hope he adds skilled trade making, fair contract valuations, and finds balance in acquisitions between the three or four avenues of getting better players. And invests in developing all players in the system, be it more and or better coaches, and a dedicated effort in actively working with players so that they grow each season
Not everyone is good at self motivation. Bear comes to mind, taking a few post draft years to figure out his fitness wasn’t there yet. Seems they are hinting at it with Ralph – saying he can’t handle the extra minutes and keep his energy levels up. Shouldn’t even happen within the world’s best hockey league
I also hope things change for the better. But at the same time believe that Holland has been our best GM since….. Lowe? Or Sather? It sometimes seems like from the verbal here that Holland has been a step back as a gm. I can only name one Oiler gm that I for sure believe was better. In times of turmoil, Holland at least brought stability.
But yes i am still hoping for the same things that you are.
For me yes he is stable but that process was already underway bcs Chia. The farm was being sorted out. We don’t know if what happened then was Pete and what was BoB calls from inside the house
Pete moved Hall and the return wasn’t great – you don’t trade 1 OV offensive players for defensive D straight up – but I also don’t think Hall’s rep at the time meant he could get more if he had to move him, and he think he was told to. Lucic was also a BoB thing, they had been trying to draft his type for years, with not awesome success
The thing that matters most is when you have a GOAT player, is that you get busy. Holland has had money, no disadvantage there compared to some competitors. What an opportunity. Getting NHL players shouldn’t be a feather in a GMs cap, it’s expected. But here we sit with the same holes as when he came, a depleted pipeline, some cap squeezing contracts, some bad ones, the cap a mess
The pro evaluation is still wanting. Still goalie issues. Torpedoing talented prospects. When he was hired someone reported another GM thought he was meh and it wasn’t a strong hire. I thought it was just trash talking then, he was right it seems
A better GM might have a Cup or two by now. I often use MacCrimmon as an example bcs he gets what his team needs. Most of the roster has turned over since inception, and they have been very successful, team is at its best ever, meaning he’s been right most of the time
Willis wrote how they have done things Oiler fans say you can’t do- get a 1C and 1D, both RS or to boot. They are far better with the cap. There was more
I like Holland the man, Holland the GM has been lacking for me, and this season’s start didn’t improve my impression, holes still glaring like the sun
Another point of evidence towards Jackson being a fraud is the lack of developmental plan for Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault et al.
You don’t need one year of assessment to tell Chaulk in the off-season, hey, your job is safe no matter what the W-L record is. Your number one priority is making sure the prospects get enough ice and you will be judged on how they progress (within reason).
You also don’t need an entire season to say, you know what, in the salary cap era, you need contributors with low cap hits. Those guys are going to be Broberg, Holloway, and Lavoie. Okay, let’s give them a role and see what they’ve got.
Jackson has completely and utterly failed in this part of his mandate.
Also, Kesselring, anyone? Commentators here and on twitter were raving about his game. Why didn’t the Oilers scouts and org know?
What’s that? Say it again? Incompetence? 🙂
Let’s see what next season brings. Jackson may be no good, or maybe he didn’t want to come in hot
Kesselring made mistakes, so you know… I think that they aren’t able to evaluate early enough what a player has, outside of the obvious skills. So the players have to become NHL bullet proof, or they’re crap and unplayable
This is the wrong way to do things, bass ackwards, because almost no rookies do this
Kesselring, like Desharnais was a player I was playing very close attention to after he was drafted. The tools were intriguing, his skating and break-out passes were compelling. The brief flashes of brilliance in college, so intriguing. He brought this with him to every development camp and we heard/saw more of this.
But in the NCAA and in the AHL, he did not put together a good run of games and he still had his struggles defending. On a contending team, he was still too far away, but he landed on a struggling team, where he was given opportunities that are being handed out to prospects and he is seeing success. Good for him, in life timing is everything and he has truly taken advantage of his Arizona opportunities.
Clearly unless there were injury issues in Edmonton, the doors for an NHL shot were closed for him. Kemp probably would have seen NHL time ahead of him last season, anyway.
On a related note, I looked at who the ‘Yotes picked up with the 3rd rounder sent in that deal. That organization is clearly placing an emphasis on size in their last 2 Drafts. Kesselring fits right in.
Same thing with Marino.
It’s too bad Old Dutch couldn’t have convinced him to stick around, he’d likely be an upgrade over Vinny.
Marino wasn’t coming. He was drafted by and had a relationship with Chiarelli. There was a sliver of a chance that Chiarelli could’ve signed him, but I think it was unlikely.
Playing in the West was clearly not something he had any interest in, so Holland had no choice but trade him for something or end up with nothing…
I am aware of their history.
I also recall reading about how Marino’s brother built a spreadsheet with every NHL team’s depth chart, to help narrow down where John had the best chance to make the roster. Basically, they read the writing on the wall; with his champion in ChiaPete gone, he was bound to become an orphan. He wanted to ensure he had the best chance to play in the NHL. So he informed Old Dutch he had no intention of signing.
What does Jeff Jackson have to do with Michael Kesselring?
I didn’t mean to imply Jackson had anything to do with Kesselring.
I was pointing to how poor the org is with having developmental plans in place.
Jackson is the new face with fresh ideas but it’s the same story, hence the title of fraud.
OK, fair enough, although I don’t think trading Kesselring shows a pure development plan. He was a depth draft pick who they allowed to develop for a few years at NorthEastern, signed him, developed him for 2.5 years in the AHL and then, once he had value, traded the “future asset” for a rental at the deadline.
Perhaps management undervalued him at the time of trade but I don’t think this was a development issue.
I was one of a small pocket of Oilers fans that didn’t like the trade due to Kesselring’s inclusion.
I’m not a goalie expert and I’ve only seen Rodrigue highlights.
I’m impressed by how smooth he looks. Particularly going side to side. It makes him seem bigger than he is.
Same, I also like his technical style. What they don’t know is his mental game, because they have other things to do, apparently
Really?
You think his father/goalie coach in BAK has no insight into his mental resilience?
I see a guy whose career path has started slow at each new level, then taken off when he puts the pieces together at that new level. That doesn’t suggest feeble minded to me.
Not weak, I’m sure his Dad knows him, but not everyone handles the pressure of the bigs well, or at first well
As an outsider looking at stats, I tend to expect him to have a tough time in the NHL until he finds his feet.
Don’t know where his floor is, nor his ceiling, but I bet he does fine when he arrives.
My guess is the organization has a decent idea on his mettle. He’s been in the pipeline for a while now.
We have mounting evidence and also express statements, such as when Ken Holland expressed on cut-down day that “we don’t have time for growing pains” vis-a-vis Raphael Lavoie.
That makes sense if you have a team like the 2022/23 Bruins, a veteran team that plays a very good structured game and mistakes are the exception.
The Oilers are not that team – coming in to this season, you could count on pretty much every player save Mattias Ekholm to make their fair share of mistakes. I said it at the time, and it continues to be true, the mistakes that Lavoie might make in the middle six or the Holloway will make with increased minutes or that Broberg has ade are no more or greater or egregious than those made by Foegele or Kane or Drai or Ceci or Nurse or Kulak.
100%
The idea that veteran players don’t make mistakes is laughably false. Ask Oilers fans if Nurse plays a mistake free game.
Yes, let’s run with veterans like Campbell and Brown and Lucic and Ference because they can be trusted. And let’s not ask Wild fans about how Faber is doing. We already know he’s making mistake after mistake because he’s a rookie.
Out of the morning slate of games, Lions v Vikings looks like the most important and thus the most interesting.
Let me tell you about the Detroit Lions, people. No one knows futility like a Lions fan.
They have all of ten double-digit win seasons since moving to Detroit in 1934. TEN in NINETY years! This year they’ve made it eleven. They are the only team who has been around for the entire Super Bowl era to have never appeared in the Super Bowl. They are one of only two teams to be involved in a 0-0 game. They were the first team to post a winless season. Until the Browns did it recently, they were the only team. They are the only team to have a player die on the field. They have had a head coach die in training camp. They lost star running back Billy Sims to career ending injury just four years after he was drafted. the team’s two greatest players, Sanders and Megatron, both retired early, mid-contract, returning their signing bonuses. Their last playoff win came in 1991. They were only just recently allowed a Monday night national game, for the FIRST time.
They haven’t clinched their division or the playoffs yet but they can today, their first title in thirty years. In their way stands conference rival the Minnesota Vikings.
Both teams are very injured, but the Lions have their starting QB in the line-up. Vikings will be running with journeyman Nick Mullins at QB, who can play. They will also be without star cornerback Byron Murphy.
The Vikings are fighting for their playoff lives, and are a good team, so this should be a doozy, but for the love of sports, cheer for the Lions and their long-suffering fanbase.
As a Vikings fan, I do not endorse this message!
Lol, LOVED Fran Tarkenton back in the day. Well let me amend the message… Cheer for the Lions UNLESS you are a Vikings fan.
As a Lions fan since the late 60’s (and that’s worse then the Decade of Darkness around here) I certainly do!!!!!
As a Lions fan since the early 60’s, well this is just pure heaven. The way the schedule ends it is noy unrealistic for theLions to be conference champs.
First possession, first 7 on the board.
For a hilarious read, pick up a copy of paperback lion, by George Plimpton.
Worry about winning the division first.
✅
Rodrigue has been a top 10 AHL goalie for a full calendar year now. He started this pop, essentially at the beginning of 2023 and, truth be told, he’s following a similar development timeline to Stuart Skinner and actually has higher pedigree, by draft position (2nd rounder).
One could argue that Rodrigue could/should be called up now in replacement of Pickard. I get that, and don’t necessarily disagree but, at the same time, the one thing Rodrigue has not done at the AHL level is get a real run of starts over a period of time and it might make sense to run with this development spike, as LT notes, and give him 75% of the starts over the next month (as opposed to the odd spot start in Edmonton).
There is also waiver risk with Pickard right now – he likely wouldn’t get claimed but, at league min, you never know.
Rodrigue is waiver eligible next season so it does behoove the org to at least test the kid at the NHL level this season – he’s earning the opportunity in real time and, while this management group is rookie/prospect adverse (in the NHL), I think one could posit that Rodrigue would give the team every bit as much of a chance to win on any given night as Pickard.
Speaking of the Bonne Annee- Is it too early to be thinking about a contract extension for Desharnais?
another NHL calibre goalie may not move the needle too much; the team, as Lowtide points out, could use another RD, another winger, and a right handed centre. Let’s remember, other than Holloway, the team has been pretty healthy, and is rockin .500; 4 players is a 20% turnover
When it comes to save percentage, in his entire hockey resume going back to Major Juniors, Rodirigue has never had such a percentage as he current rocks (small sample size warning), his previous best was in his final junior season where he was 2nd in the Q with a 0.918.
That season, with a new team, he was 3rd in wins, 13th in GP and 2nd in GAA, where he ended the season with 2.32.
The previous season he was 8th in GP, 2nd in wins, 4th in GAA & 12th save percentage. These are stellar numbers coming out of the Q.
Of note, none of his QMJHL contemporaries made a splash in the NHL. Zach Fucale, who backstopped the Nate MacKinnon Mooseheads to the Memorial Cup, is the only guardienne of note during that time and he is now plying his trade in the KHL after a stellar 4 game stint with the Caps in 2021-22.
Interestingly, the greybeard Pickard also has put up stellar numbers in Bakersfield (small sample size).
This save percentage is similar to his 22 year old season in the NHL (16 games) and over a 3 year period he played 86 games for the Avs, including 50 in 2016-17. This opportunity came during the heart of his 121 game NHL resume.
Goalies are voodoo, as we well know and, as we know as Oiler fans, it is a very rare sight to see the Oilers drafted & developed goo tending prospects bloom in Oil Country or elsewhere. Skinner (very early in his NHL career, but he is 3rd on this list) is only one of 3 that has has any kind of sustained NHL success (Darryl Reaugh’s career doesn’t count).
However, Oli, who has a legitimate pedigree in NHL circles is really starting to gain some traction.
Keep it up young man and may the Oilers brass support you in every way possible from here on out.
This whole “all in” mentality is flawed. Unless this season is the last season that you want to be contending for the Stanley Cup, you have to give consideration to your up and coming prospects.
You don’t want to play them this year because they don’t have experience. But if you don’t play them this year,
then next year they still won’t have any experience so they will be useless to you then under the same mindset.
And I have already stated that a “serious cup contender” shouldn’t fall out of that status simply by switching their 3LD from Kulak to Broberg. If that switch knocks us out of serious cup contender status, then we aren’t actually serious cup contenders. And if we aren’t, then what’s the reasoning behind going all in?
I agree, for some reason “burn your prospect talent pool to the ground” reminds me of intentional starting a grass fire. Then the wind picks up and all of a sudden it is completely out of control.
And then it reaches that pile of old tires that you conveniently ignored for over a decade….
Ollie and Stuey are a great story line.
Start Rodrigue Jan13th in Montreal. Original draft position was the Habs, French-Canadian kid beating the Habs in Montreal – priceless.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Oilers trade for someone like Reimer. I would just hate to see some of our very imited resources spent on someone who may not be better than Pickard or Rodrique.
He’s pretty much the perfect fit for me if Detroit is willing to move him.
An established and consistent vet that can play the 1B role and maybe even take 1A for stretches if Stuart struggles.
He’s consistently over .900 in a decent amount of games on teams of varying degrees of talent.
Only $1.5MM (before any retainment) and a UFA at year’s end and shouldn’t cost more than a mid pick.