The Edmonton Oilers are coming off an exceptional December and are in good position as the January schedule begins. There’s no time for a losing streak of any kind, and nothing is yet certain. Still, it would be poor form to ignore the eight- and five-game winning streaks during the month. What will January bring?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- Lowetide: Oilers goalie prospect Olivier Rodrigue reaches new performance level
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s concerning season and what it means to the Oilers.
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers are undergoing a changing of the guard on defence
- Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
- Lowetide: Ranking the Edmonton Oilers’ top 6 trade assets
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 0-0-0
- Oilers in 2023-24: 18-15-1, 37 points in 34 games
If the Oilers cover my (admittedly aggressive, but it’s an inviting schedule) bet, the team will land end January at 25-18-2, 52 points in 45 games. That’s a 95-point pace. Edmonton doesn’t have to get it all back in two months, but December went so well it’s human nature to suggest they’ll shoot the moon again in January.
OILERS LINES
I’m looking forward to seeing how the ‘New Originals’ line of 29-Foegele-McLeod does over the next few weeks. If the trio can outscore opponents and produce offense at five-on-five, the deadline shopping list eases from top-six forward to No. 3 center. That’s still expensive, but not a first-round pick or Broberg-level expensive. Here are the current lines, sans Sam Gagner, Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie.
- Nuge [2.06]-McDavid [2.94]-Hyman [2.85]
- McLeod [1.81]-Draisaitl [2.42]-Foegele [2.69]
- Kane [1.86]-Ryan [1.04]-Janmark [1.17]
- Erne [0.90]-Hamblin [0.93]-Brown [0.56]
Ordinarily I would argue that the team will make the equivalent of a trade acquisition when Dylan Holloway returns, but I’m not sure he brings enough offense to move the needle. I think Raphael Lavoie showed a little more in his most recent game, perhaps he can contribute and force one of the current wingers to the pressbox.
The truth is Sam Gagner is the winger this team misses most right now. His five-on-five pts-60 for the season (2.73) and outscoring in the game state (60 percent) made him arguably the most valuable bottom-six forward on the club so far in 2023-24 (his main competition being Foegele and McLeod).
Sliding Gagner on to a line with Holloway and Kane won’t work imo, but Kane and a strong two-way center or wing could form a promising No. 3 line. Kane away from Connor Brown is 16-16 goals at five-on-five this season, and has scored well with the feature pivots. You’d need a substantial linemate to make it go. Is that Ryan McLeod? He looks strong right now. Maybe Ryan at center and Janmark on the wing with Kane? Don’t know.
I think Holloway might land in the James Hamblin spot, you’d like him to be higher in the lineup so we’ll see.
We’re back after the Christmas break! Noon today, Sports 1440. Guests include Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic, Jason Gregor and we’ll have a Flyers guest, too. WJ’s, NFL and college football featured. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Since the new coaching, Oilers are playing at a 32/22 points = 119 over 82 games pace.
Colorado’s One Line Team clawing around with weak teams. Gonna get shredded by good ones.
L.A. laying eggs left and right. Poor Kaliyev, healthy scratched today and his career is getting sewered by that fraud PLD. Rob Blake with the patented 4 for 1. Check out their travel this month, one more home game to the Wings and then away for Wash, Tampa, Cats, Detroit where they get a two day break and then a truly insane three in four with a B2B starting in Raleigh, then, Dallas and then back in L.A. to the Preds before getting the Rags. We might be talking Low Bubble and a TMac firing if they lose to the Sharks on Jan 22.
How’d everyone enjoy watching Vegas mail
in an outdoor game? Something is off.
If our Boys wouldn’t have given away that Tampa game they’d be right on target for that >.812 points percentage since December 1 that I mentioned. Too bad.
Heavy Western Conference schedule to end the year and give how tightly packed everyone is that increases the chances to
leapfrog. Oils ran >.800 against the Western Conference after Jan 1 last season.
McDavid countdown to 1,000 is at 97… He’ll hit it this year and join Wayne and Mario with how fast it’s been done. Incredible, truly, incredible.
I didn’t stop my “12 Losses to Catch Vegas Watch” because I stopped believing in it but because it was giving bad juju. 3 straight losses then I stopped tracking and now 6 wins in a row. Meanwhile Vegas has been very pedestrian as you say so they don’t need to be .800 all the way to catch up. Vancouver is the wild card as Edmonton has no remaining games against them but hello: the top of the Conference is viable if they continue to play at an exceptional level like this.
I don’t know if we can expect McDavid to still hit 1000 this year but that would be the turn-around cherry on top of the turn-around cake.
For LA, going on the road might be the best thing for them (13-2-1 on the road, 7-7-4 at home). Schedule does get heavier and tougher so it’s not realistic to expect them to continue at that pace.
Agree that the 4:1 PLD move has not panned out so far. Iafallo and Vilardi each have more points. Chevy with a good move at the expense of Blake.
Calculation mistake on my end. Its actually a 5-1 when you include Sean Durzi who has 20 points to PLD’s 14.
When does K.K enter the conversation?
I think he’s been in it straight away. They play like a different team, better than good times under Woody
Now when they are on and there to play, they dominate all game states. In Woody times they won a lot of games, even running out the season, with a lot more luck than now, and heavily reliant on the PP
This team now, with the 3 additions, is untouchable
The McLeod Leon Foegele line combo was a stroke of genius. Who knew dropping 2 older injured vets in the batting order and replacing them with speedy energizer bunnies with Leon would result in yahtzee. The Top 6 with the top 4 are playing like shades of CCCP 5 man units like I haven’t seen in Edmonton since forever.
It’s amazing just how much the Soviets influenced the modern game.
Hyman as a Leaf: 6 seasons, 345 gp… 86 goals
Hyman the Oiler: 2.4 seasons, 189 gp… 85 goals
If he gets 50, do Leaf fans’ heads explode?
When we start saying he’s better than Austin Mooostachio
What if he actually got more? Mayhem!
And Michael Bunting was supposed to be the younger, cheaper, superior Hyman replacement for the Leafs.
Hyman almost has as many goals as Bunting has points this year.
With sending Gleason down the other day, the Oilers are actually accruing cap space while in LTIR by being below their adjusted cap accrual threshold. Of course, carrying 6 d-man is not sustainable.
Cool, calm, extra garlic!
Don’t think for a minute McDavid forgot about this from old man Torts
https://twitter.com/espn/status/1458930521271148545?s=20
I would consider that bulletin board material
McDavid is constantly learning how to elevate his game.
What Torts said was 100% true. Already this season both McDavid+Draisaitl are playing like they could care less about powerplay points, goals galore for themselves, as they elevate their team for one thing their linemates.
EG: RNH is starting to play like a top calibre NHLer; incidentally has almost never been injured, plays smart in so many ways he is a 20 year man for sure.
Looking at ice time and its very clear that there is gap between 10F (Brown) and 11/12F (Hamblin, Erne) as it relates to TOI.
Brown’s PK puts him in a higher tier and, if both Gagner and Holloway are ready and up to speed, I think its Erne and, then, Hamblin, who come out.
Brown is also PP2
The next 8 games we should expect 7 wins. Only the Leafs could pose a problem given they can run with us offensively
Here’s hoping
Here’s hoping we get to see the Hildebeast.
Predicting that far ahead is folly. You’re only setting yourself up for disappointment. I get it as a fan we like to look ahead. Keep it to yourself is my philosophy then nobody can throw it back in your face. 🙂
Bob talking about the easy “strength of schedule” remaining. Personally I think people really need to separate the difference between strength of remaining opponents and strength of schedule.
It’s a more accurate way
Stuart Skinner was fantastic to my eye tonight – he looked very calm and locked in in the first period, efficient in his movement and controlling rebounds. Let in a few in the 2nd but was also very very good with some real tough saves. That game could have gone differently.
I thought his feet looked really calm; almost easy.
I totally agree. Definitely out-goalied Hart. We may have a 1a goalie, but need to get Calvin some games.
His rebound control has been much improved – way less second chances, helped out by a d core who have remembered how to box out.
Stauff says that Holloway looks awesome in practice and he wouldn’t send him down for a conditioning stint but thinks the org might do so for maybe 3 games – part of it might be the current lineup rolling.
Team is rolling, hard to see how switching out Hamblin for Holloway would change that in anyway
I would think it would be Erne for Holloway.
Bob thinks they still might send Holloway to Bako for 2-3 games
With the way the team is rolling, that may be the best possible path forward, non?
It’s amazing what these guys can do when they decide to work hard and impose their will.
Sure helps have a McDavid to unleash, too…
Gets some rest, Fellas. You’ve earned it!!!
It’s a weird double image. Team win, no question, but no McDavid no win. Again.
Gritted out a win. Great effort from all and a real solid game from Skinner.
Impressive win … at no point was I concerned that they wouldn’t get a win tonight. Some soft penalty calls kept the Flyers in it for a while, but KK has this team playing better than I’ve ever seen.
Didn’t realize that KK coached Foegele in junior. Amazing that all this time he’s been with the Oilers he has never tried on RW despite that being the side he prefers. Good commentary by Louie.
Interesting how some are useless on their off side and some are better
McDavid with the dump and hang back mid-shift.
He is content with Foegele having more 5 point games at evens than he does!
Don’t forget Gagner too
McDavid now third in scoring.
And most talking heads had written him off for the Hart.
99 was like this – when he had his A+ game there was nothing the opposition could do other than try to keep him under 4 points and hope your team scored 5 plus
Skinner outplayed Hart tonight.
Not outgoalied by any means
the four in six is having an effect. We look like we’;re running on fumes at times.
Great job by Vinny defending that 2 on 1
Not going to get too concerned with some sloppiness with the game in hand – just enjoy some high event action for a night!
and then they give up a breakaway
That was the wrong time for the forward to look for a line change, but it costs us not
I want Gully to put Baby Nuge in a chair, like the one we saw in A Clockwork Orange, with the eyelid retractors, and make him watch his goal over, and over, until he vomits if he doesn’t get the biscuit upstairs
He must have a 70 SH% when he does
Horrorshow idea, my droog.
That’s using your gulliver!
This calls for moloko plus.
And, when the occasion calls for it, a bit of the ultra-violence.
Stuart the goalie should organize this…
… it’s classic Skinnerian therapy!
We promoted him to Man Nuge last year in honour of his 30th (both goal and birthday)
I think KK can give McDavid the rest of the night off now.
I feel a little more comfortable now. Torts has had his troops skating hard tonight
I’m trying to remember a time when the top six forwards were this dominant at 5v5. Unreal!
Foegele still has more 5 points at evens games in his career than McDavid – for this moment – talk to me in 5 minutes!
Tick-tack-toe, beauty play all around.
BOOM!!! Connor brilliance and Nuge finish!!! Is there anything better?
Connor McCinco
Looks like Foegele lent McDavid some of that 5 point magic. Good in the room.
Have a game Connor McDavid
Just pure supernova McDavid night – pure.
Jeezuz 97 is off the charts tonight. What a dish
Confirmed!
NUGGET!!!! They make it looks so easy.
97 with point #5! Nuge with the finish!
Foegele be like, “Big deal. Just did that the other night!”.
If Philadelphia had a functioning PP this game would be considerably closer than it is.
Philly commentators wondering if they could borrow 97 for their PP ‘that’s what’s missing’ (you had your chance with Lindros, flying P’s!)
The Philly PP is giving Edmonton some troubles. It’s so non-standard it leads players to wonder ?am I on the PK? ?what should I be doing?
Good penalty to take but it was your fault, Ceci.
Gsmes not over, fellas..,geez…
I shouldn’t but I feel bad for CC and Des. They are trying so hard to play the game Coffey has asked for- a level up for sure, top player hockey
It’s not there. They don’t have the pace of game or the boots. Maybe they have the puck skills, but even if so the other two things take their time and space away
It’s such a difference from the other 4 D. They can get away with Des, for now, as he has good PK and adds some snarl they lack. But I’m not seeing anything added from the other gentleman, other than usually follows the system
That might have been the worst PP I’ve seen from the oilers in a long time..,brutal…
Well that was a stretch of horrible passing
McDavid doesn’t seem like he’s done getting points yet tonight……
The superior quality is starting to shine through now that we’re working hard.
Was my heart…could watch them bust ass and dominate all day.,,
I’d pay $10 for a PPV if Torts was miced up
As an incentive have a miked up Kris for free – ’Dead Air’
Me too, after that latest call, especially. Where’s the game management? Oh yeah, there’s time yet…
NHL Blue
I’d be okay with one more goal. Take some tenacity out of the Flies’ wings