I wrote that item above exactly one year ago. The way is clear, again. Edmonton is on pace for 91 points, and Seattle Kraken are in the mix. Amazingly, so are the Arizona Coyotes and Nashville Predators. The Oilers are in a playoff spot this morning, using points percentage. The Coyotes are listing and the LAK are fading just a little. Plenty of excitement to come.
Kris Knoblauch is 16-6-0 since taking over the head coaching job and this Oilers team is playing a repeatable style with a roster that can afford to play Connor McDavid less than 17 minutes (provided he scores five points while on the ice). Fun times in good old our town!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- Lowetide: Oilers goalie prospect Olivier Rodrigue reaches new performance level
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s concerning season and what it means to the Oilers.
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers are undergoing a changing of the guard on defence
- Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
- Lowetide: Ranking the Edmonton Oilers’ top 6 trade assets
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 1-0-0, 2 points in 1 game
- Oilers in 2023-24: 19-15-1, 39 points in 35 games
If the Oilers land as I predicted this month, the team will have 52 points in 45 games. That pace would fetch 95 points, so we’re really close to the situation of last season. In the final 47 games a year ago, the Oilers would go 32-8-7, 71 points. If this team repeats the feat, the record will be 51-23-8, 110 points. We’re dealing with a transcendent talent in McDavid, plus impact players Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard, and some impressive support across the roster. Stuart Skinner and Ryan McLeod are helping, too. A fine team in Edmonton, delivering what was expected. Finally.
THE NUMBERS
Connor McDavid is on a tear lately, and last night (1-4-5) was no exception. Since November 13 and the coaching change, he has scored 12-31-43 in 22 games. Just shy of two points per game. In that same time frame, he is averaging 5.59 pts-60 including all game states. Nathan MacKinnon, at 4.71 pts-60, is second. Amazing run. The captain is now third in the entire NHL in total points, with MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov more nervous than Dennis Weaver in Duel. Enjoy the brilliance of peak McDavid, we won’t see the likes of him again.
The McDavid line (RNH-Hyman) is 20-8 goals (71 percent) at five-on-five. Ridiculous. Even more smashing, the trio is scoring 6.21 goals-60 at five-on-five. That’s a blistering pace. Hyman is on pace for 52 goals, Nuge for 59 assists. McDavid? At his current trajectory, expect 34-94-128 in 80 games. Exceptional.
Now. Hold on to your ass. It isn’t sustainable, but the Draisaitl (McLeod-Foegele) line is delivering 9.48 goals-60 and a 75 percent goal share at five-on-five! Not at all sustainable, but my goodness the first 57 minutes for this line is absolute fire. It’s like listening to the first Boston album. Kind of exhilarating.
Darnell Nurse had another fine game last night, played well and now owns a 54 percent goal share for the season at five-on-five. When Nurse is off the ice, the Oilers own 51.6 percent of the goals. Nurse-Ceci have a 55 percent goal share. Nurse away from McDavid is at 46 percent, but I think Puck IQ’s numbers reveal that Nurse is still playing heavy minutes against elites. The WOWY’s aren’t working at Puck IQ yet, but when they do, I’ll have a good long look at Nurse’s deployment. I think he’s playing heavy minutes versus elites, often without McDavid, meaning he is in a very difficult spot this season. I don’t expect most of the analytics folks to reflect that fact, because most of them don’t value qual comp heavily. I’m thankful for the good work Puck IQ does.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are running at 56 percent five-on-five goal share, 68 percent since December 1. All world. Edmonton has a new top pairing, they’re real and they’re spectacular.
AHL SCORING BY SEASON (SKILL FORWARDS)
The current Condors prospect forwards are having a scoring outage and that’s bad. Here are the prospect forwards and their points-per-game this season.
- Raphael Lavoie 0.74 (2023-24)
- Tyler Tullio 0.55 (2023-24)
- Xavier Bourgault 0.44 (2023-24)
- Carter Savoie 0.35 (2023-24)
- Jayden Grubbe 0.28 (2023-24)
- Matvey Petrov 0.13 (2023-24)
Now, let’s run that group against the last decade of Condors forward prospects.
- Cooper Marody 1.10 (2018-19)
- Ryan McLeod 1.00 (2020-21)
- Tyler Benson 1.00 (2020-21)
- Tyler Benson 0.97 (2018-19)
- Cooper Marody 0.92 (2020-21)
- Dylan Holloway 0.83 (2022-23)
- Tyler Benson 0.77 (2019-20)
- Raphael Lavoie 0.74 (2023-24)
- Raphael Lavoie 0.74 (2022-23)
- Jujhar Khaira 0.74 (2016-17)
- Jesse Puljujarvo 0.72 (2016-17)
- Kailer Yamamoto 0.70 (2019-20)
- Dylan Holloway 0.67 (2021-22)
- Kailer Yamamoto 0.67 (2018-19)
- Tyler Pitlick 0.64 (2014-15)
- Cooper Marody 0.57 (2019-20)
- Tyler Tullio 0.55 (2023-24)
- Xavier Bourgault 0.55 (2022-23)
- Jujhar Khaira 0.55 (2015-16)
- James Hamblin 0.55 (2021-22)
- James Hamblin 0.54 (2022-23)
- Raphael Lavoie 0.53 (2020-21)
- Noah Philp 0.53 (2022-23)
- Curtis Hamilton 0.51 (2014-15)
- Bogdan Yakimov 0.49 (2014-15)
Just two current player-seasons make the top 25 pts-game totals among Oilers prospect forwards. At some point, that’s going to cost all involved. I’m not certain much can be done, but you’d like to see a spike from several of the 2023-24 forward prospects, starting with Xavier Bourgault. Credit to Raphael Lavoie and Tyler Tullio, who are scoring at a solid pace.
One of the things the before prospects show is that scoring alone doesn’t guarantee NHL success. Ryan McLeod is at the top of this list, with Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson. McLeod’s edge was foot speed. That’s something to keep in mind with the current group. Who is the fastest current Oilers forward prospect in Bakersfield?
A busy show today on the Lowdown, noon to 2 on Sports 1440. We’ll chat with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal about last night’s game and the changing “needs” of this surging Oilers team. We’ll also discuss the floundering Kings and Golden Knights. Raptors on the rise after a big trade and we’ll set the scene for weekend football action. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system.
https://theathletic.com/5174605/2024/01/03/oilers-stuart-skinner-ryan-mcleod-development/
Oilers back to within striking distant of climbing back to baseline PDO (0.992). It’s too bad bookies have come a long way on their learning curves from where they used to be. The year the predators made the final (after starting season with unsustainable bad luck to point it was considered impossible they could even qualify) – I made 100 bet they’d win cup at the absolute lowest point. Even though they fell just short just cheering through it all with a 28000 dollar payout still in play – one of best obscure bets I’ve ever made.
Tried the aane thing a couple years later when wild were caught the same way. Hottest team second half grabbed 8th but unfortunately lost in 1st round. Even though it was only a few years later potential payout compared to 1st time was less 1/10th.
I’m pretty sure I almost completely ceased betting on hockey by the following year. Still recall how sad it was to accept that this period of reliably exploitable advantages had clearly come to its end.
I honestly can’t believe that LA appears to be settling into likely team oilers would need to outpace for a shot finishing in 3rd place.
It’s amazing but I think the Canucks 5×5 PDO gain actually outpaced how much the oilers overall average has increased over the past 5 or 6 weeks. Boggling.
Side note – Klim Shady has 3 pts in first 23 games this year. Maybe he will turn it around over the next 1.5 yrs, but it was a shame that he signed in Detroit. I was rooting for him but he had finally found a home and a role and it was predictable that a change of scenery might have presented further unnecessary challenges in his quest to be a consistent NHL player. With a new undisclosed injury to boot
I agree, it was a shame.
Folks point to his lack of production this year and justifies Oilers not signing him.
I agree not signing him due to salary, but not lack of production.
He found a home and purpose here. The team needed him, and that always feels good. He produced and added value.
If Detroit was to retain salary, I’d have him back in an Oilers jersey.
Oly with two big saves – point blank 2 on 1 save and then on the rebound. Big after the Condors had just scored two to take the lead.
Ooop, short lived.
Leakly defensive zone structure and pass from behind the net to the attacker coming across the slot with speed and he buries it far side under the bar.
No chance for Oly.
Oooh, another quick one – points shot is blocked by the crowd in front but it bounces right to the attacker in the high slot who spins and rips one – Oly never saw it – perhaps needs to do a better job of battling through the screens
and a third – Condors terrible off the rush and then terrible in the d-zone and they allow the cross-seam pass to the back door right for a tap in. 3 quick ones.
Neutral zone board battle and who knows what Abbotsford were doing as McKegg picked up the loose puck and went in on a 2 on 1 with Petrov – snaps one from his off-wing for a 2-1 lead.
On another look, it wasn’t so much a board battle but a quick play off the boards and its was a nice little play by Savoie to keep the play alive and he’ll get the 2nd assist.
Very nice PPG for the Condors.
Lavoie lugs the puck along the boards in the offensive zone and leaves for Caggiula on the half boards. Drake finds Broberg sneaking down low, takes the puck in the slot and with a great visions pass to Pederson at the side of the net who buries it.
It dawned on me tonight, seeing how much tougher it is to beat a structured balanced team, really makes what the Oilers did the past few years feel more impressive. Toe to toe against tough balanced teams most nights with a blow torch and gasoline.
Summarizing!
Day’s slump continues as he allowed four goals on 25 shots in a 5-3 loss. In lieu of soup, he shall have to content himself with a packet of ketchup.
Prospecting takes a break until Friday.
Awful defensive zone turnover by the Condor – bad pass from the wall to the middle goes off the Condor skate for a turnover – a point black shot from the left faceoff circle is stopped by Rodrigue but the rebound goes far side for an empty net cash.
Was RD MIA?
Abbotsford is a very high scoring team – look forward to the D-core and Oly shutting them down!
25 in 10 years is 2.5 per season.
So this season’s 2 is right in range, and that’s even betting against a 2nd half spike from Bourgault (getting from him from 0.44 to 0.50 or better).
Also potentially notable, 16 of the listed top 25 were under Holland’s watch (last 5 of the 10 seasons).
Under Holland’s watch, but also largely inherited from PistolPete.
So he played a roll in assessment and development, but the drafting philosophies have certainly diverged from the previous regime.
Something is going on with Niemo – initial report from Holt was that he was out with illness but then Keith Gretzky with a very cryptic update last week said he was dealing with some stuff he had to take care but no injury. He’s been out of the lineup for more than a couple weeks now I think.
I think this is a demotion for Savoie which, to me, seems odd based on recent play.
Tulio/McKegg/Bourgault
Lavoie/Pederson/Griffith
Caggiula/Malone/Petrov
Savoie/Grubbe/Kambeitz
Broberg/Kemp
Peters/Wanner
Hoeffenmayer/Gleason
Rodrigue
Savoie with 5 points in his last 7, I don’t get this one.
Holt on the broadcast again saying Niemo is out sick – whoever in the org is directing him to say that may not be on the same page as the GM who told a different story on Edmonton radio.
How nice it is to be in a place where the daily intrigue and drama relates to a bottom 6 forward’s trajectory back into the lineup.
also, a delicious opinion piece at dailyfaceoff suggests the Norris candidates this year are Qughes, Makar (duh) and… Bouchard?!
If Bouch can end the total fails defensively and battle like Makar does that way, my money says he wins one
I just hope it’s after he’s locked up, not this season
Rodrigue starts tonight which is a not an immaterial piece of info.
Back to back on the weekend so they likely split those two and this means they are continuing to push the prospect even though Jack had a reasonable performance in a win last game out.
Holloway has been activated and loaned to the Condors.
I sure hope he’s in the lineup tonight – would love to see him play and would be on pins and needles waiting to see if he lines up as center!
Gregor told me he is not playing tonight.
Can’t wait to see how the coaching staff ultimately handles Holloway’s return.
I’m a bit skeptical of slotting him right into McLeod’s spot and putting McLeod back at 3C. I think there is risk there of disrupting a scorching hot line 2, as well as shaking up McLeod a bit too much in a shift back to centre, possibly causing an issue to line 3. I prefer stability with gentle changes.
Would prefer to just leave the top 6 completely as is for now – it is not broken, don’t fix it. Let Holloway get back up to speed on Line 3 or 4, and then tweak from there.
Much like Nuge, McLeod may just be better off as a winger for one of our top two supernovas, and if so, let it ride!
Who’s suggesting putting Holloway at 2LW?
Me. Earlier in the thread I threw out the idea of eventually putting Holloway on line 2 and moving McLeod to 3 C.
It does not seem sustainable to run two Cs at LW. Holloway is big and fast. He might be able to play a similar game to McLeod on line 2.
Saw that, after I’d posted here. I tend to agree with Slushy’s post below.
My take is ease him back into the NHL as 4C, let him earn more minutes and tougher comp while leaving in tact one of the hottest lines in hockey.
I could see a reasonable path to swap in Hollywood if Highlander starts to wane, but for now he’s been spectacular with McLovin and Leon.
I’d go 4C and let him take Ryan’s current gig. I’m sure he can do it. If I’m wrong I’d appreciate someone describing why
Ryan being the current 3C to clarify
Of note, Brandt “the true Brogan Rafferty” Clarke has been recalled.
This is huge.
He’s the one who was supposed to be anchoring the Kings blueline this year but was cut from training camp, right?
Correct, and former member of the best prospect group in NHL history, Tobias Bjornfot has been waived.
And he was first D prospect to make it to the nhl (after Seider, drafted 6th) so that automatically “made him the best”
Right, now it’s coming back to me. The 2nd line was supposed to be shut down D Gavrikov with Clarke, the offensive wizard. And the Kings would not be keen on losing Bjornfoot because he was going to anchor the 3rd.
I get it, but let’s not piss off the hockey gods here. He’s a 20 year old leading his AHL team in scoring, as a Dman. We don’t want to reverse the HH curse.
Oh it’s probably too late. Brandt is going to be good.
Question for the intellectuals on Lowetide:
I was reading in Calgary Puck how Oilers are supposed to be diving like the Canucks used to when they had the Sedins. I seriously hated that diving bunch of saps.
Are Oilers diving, or are CP readers salty and therefore delusional?
The roads have been clear so they’re saving up all that Salt.
97’s been complaining more, not without justification but it’s true.
I’ve never actually heard KK speak so I’m not sure if he is able to. Maybe that’s why.
Hunter, the only reason to go on calgary puck is for a good laugh. Next time ask them how they’re enjoying year 1 of Hugedough’s contract.
I like the previously posited moniker of Uber-dough… brilliant, that one.
If CP fans had to watch their stars receive the McDavid/Draisaitl treatment where most infractions against them go uncalled, they would have had a new arena built already because their tears would have flooded the Saddledome and destroyed the surrounding area.
Hilarious… ‘their stars’ LOL
Gonna take a long time to bail out all that water… with only one Cup.
If St.Paul Stan Syml a heart and soul grinder with hands doesnt get robbed in game 7 OT by Vernon Flames would have a goose egg for Cups.
Oilers record under KK = 16-6 .727
That translates to a 119 point pace.
To top this all off, KK has them playing actual defence; instead of hoping the powerplay scores at record levels.
The best part of the way we’re playing is it’s been a team effort and not a super nova PP are Hasek like goaltending. It’s been a total team effort and the quiet confidence they’re displaying is at a all time high. If we can find a Linesman- McTavish-Stoll like 3rd line Centre internally or in the market this team will be a juggernaut that comes in waves offensively like all the great teams.
I agree. If they continue playing this way, AND the PP finally starts going, they’ll be tough to stop. Before last night’s PP goal, it was at like 0.5% or something like that over the previous 4 or 5 games. Games they still won. That’s a good sign if they continue trending up into a playoff spot. Their improved 5vs5 play and PK has them showing better ability to handle the playoffs.
You can’t win 4 series in the Playoffs depending on a hot PP. Kris knows the importance of rolling the lines and getting everyone involved. This is how you win Cups it’s a team effort: This is a loose confident gang when Ryan scored I never seen our bench so happy.
Agreed give me a strong 3C and a proper top 4 RD and watch out!!
In a game where McDavid was the star, there were a couple other things that stood out for me.
McLeod has lovely underlying numbers at 3C. But one thing moving him to the wing does is really let him unleash his speed on the forecheck. Something Foegele is pretty good at as well. They are tenacious out there. Certainly gives that second line a different look.
My goodness Bouchard is becoming bold on the offensive blue line. Opposing forward is pressuring him so he makes a lateral move, keeps his feet moving as the drives down the board and draws a penalty. Then on the ensuing powerplay, makes an assertive and slightly ballsy hold that otherwise would’ve sprung Philly free on an uncontested breakaway, which leads directly to McDavid’s no look pass and Hyman’s goal. Those plays are going to burn him some times and he’s going to get all kinds of flak for it, but it’s important to remember how often those plays work for him and pay off for the team, which contributes to it being a net positive.
Bouchard processes the game at an incredible level with the puck. His hands and feet aren’t anywhere close to McDavid level of speed, but his brain might be close. He’s really starting to recognize when opposing defenders are giving him space and transporting the puck through it with a ton of confidence.
Coffey has been intergating the 5 man unit where the D are more involved offensively which is quietly going unnoticed but has been very effective. Bouchard and Nurse are starting to show they have more skill then their predecessors allowed them to display and still have another level in their game. This is a huge development if we’re going to win the Cup this year.
And the forwards are reading the d integration faster and rotating up to cover when a dman pinches and rushes deep. I’ve noticed quite a few times even where both dmen are near the net and all 3 forwards have rotated up top above all the opposing players.
Teams will surely adapt but at the moment this strategy is causing chaos defensively for the opposition. This is entertaining hockey the best Oilers version of them working as a unit since the 80’s
This is true but its hardly going unnoticed, right? I mean, its getting a ton of talk.
I look forward to the PuckIq wowy numbers.
Nurse playing – less – more focused minutes against elites and thriving could rebalance the Oilers path to victory in the McDavid years.
Also some back of the envelope math suggests if McDavid continues his post injury/Knoblauch pace he will scare 1,000 pts this year. Doing so clinching a second round playoff victory would be a very McDavidian thing to do.
1,000 points would be fantastic.
That plug Gretzky couldn’t even get more than 200.
Bob and Rob last night were opining that the play of Skinner behind an Oiler crew that has finally found their defensive mojo likely means that Jackson & Co are no longer looking for a starter on the market but a backup.
Rob added that they’re probably also looking for a depth Dman because every team is at the deadline and then they wondered if the Oil could find the cap space to add a bottom 6 center, especially with a hole there right now. Bob wondered if Holloway could do that job, but he thought it was more likely that KK might swap Holls for Highlander at 2L and voila we have a real 3C again.
He admitted though that he might be projecting Holls too high and they noted that no one really knows what KK thinks of Holloway and how trusted he will be to handle tough minutes. It was clear that Woody had him on a short leash, would KK feel the same?
My thoughts there are that it’s real tough to say. Nobby and Manwood clearly agreed on Broberg and Lavoie… is Holloway a different story? And as we all know his latest injury was particularly heartbreaking because the kid had really been coming on in the prior week, culminating in a goal in the game he was hurt.
If Holloway can take those 2L minutes and produce as well as McLeod has, that still means a backup, a depth forward and a depth Dman, which seems like a tall ask for such a cap-constrained roster. Of course, injuries could at any time change those plans, but one could also assume that such an injury would also provide some cap space to solve it.
I’d say in order of priority though the organization has their board:
Of course, Jackson still has to find out what he really has with a healthy roster finally playing to expectations and thus where it needs help, so the above list will certainly not be engraved in stone. #3 might leap to the top if the org determines a full-on 3C is required.
And with other teams suffering between the pipes knocking down #1 on Jackson’s “honey-do” list is not going to be any simple affair either. Hopefully he has lots of favours to call in around the League.
Nice. I was wondering about a Holloway for McLeod swap. It seems like the most logical. If Holloway can’t hack it the Oil can find a bargain winger at the deadline. The Oilers have great C depth but playing RNH and McLeod at LW seems untenable long term.
Lol, just saw your post below. That was well-timed.
Certainly they’re going to have see what they have and what works before making any trade. Not sure either whether that’s where KK would start Holloway. Seems to me you’d want to have him get a game or two in before elevating him into the top 6.
Oh I forgot. Bob did add that they if they ran Holloway at C on a bottom 6 line they could have someone like the Ryan take the draws.
Wasn’t Holloway good at everything until getting into the org directly? Man this team
I think Holloway has more talent than McLeod. Of course he hasn’t done anything with it yet
I also don’t think the Oilers have great C depth. They have a lot of C’s, but after the duo they are not strong and the team won’t play some of them there very often. Nice in a pinch, seems the team doesn’t feel that’s what they need
McLeod hasn’t established yet at C. He was great in the playoffs, brutal to start the season. I feel as LT has mentioned it’s likely MCL and Foegele regress. It may have already started for Foegle with the hands letting him down, but I’m enjoying it while it lasts. For me neither have top 6 processing speed or finish
Holloway also has a very good shot which he doesn’t use enough. Lots of torque
What I like about the current coaching is how they are living within their means; icing a winning team without the perpetual need to try to win with huge gaping holes in the lineup.
-Goalies are iffy? Get the team to play better defence.
-Defence iffy? Get the defence to play within their individual strengths.
-Need a 2nd line? Give Draisaitl a pair of pluggers and watch him turn them into legit top 6 NHLers.
-Star players tired and burned out in the playoffs? Stop overplaying them.
I always had the impression that Woodcroft stood there in a catatonic state – watching McDraisaitl playing like geniuses instead of, well, coaching an NHL team.
When Holloway is back I wonder if he could replace McLeod on line two. McLeod can slide back to 3C.
I wonder if they’d send 55 to Bako for a conditioning stint first given he’s been off for a couple months.
Why mess with one of the hottest lines in the entire league?
Would seem to make more sense to bring Holloway back in against a lower level of comp than top-6 until he gets rolling.
Also, he’s at 53.9% on faceoffs this year, why not give him a run at centre in the bottom six?
I just do no think Ryan and Hamblin are suited for 3C and 4C duties in the long term.
I could be wrong.
I also think Holloway brings similar attributes as McLeod so line 2 would hopefully keep rolling.
To be clear, I do not think the swap needs to happen immediately. But long term the current third line is undermanned and the centre depth is being cannibalized by LW.
I think we all would agree that Ryan/Hambln as 3C/4C will not cut in in the playoffs and a bottom six center needs to be “found”, be it McLeod finding his game from last playoffs (and progressing up from there as we anticipated) or Holloway or an external add.
I do think the plan is to have McLeod as the 3C going forward but, of course, until that 2nd line cools, and it will, he’s 2LW.
Leaving the top 6 alone,
I would very much like to see what a healthy Kane Gagne Holloway line could do.
4th line of Janmark Ryan Brown
Since McDavid was drafted by Edmonton there have been 18 five point games by an Oiler.
He has 10 himself. Drai has 6, Nuge and Foegele have 1 each.
Throw Samwise into the Fellowship and that’s makes five Oilers with at least a five point game on the roster.
Not sure where to find it, or if anyone would happen to know offhand. What would our record streak of having an Oiler player score 5 points be? Are these two games in a row the record? Or did they do it more consecutive games in the ‘80s? Bruce? LT?
The current Condors prospect forwards are having a scoring outage and that’s bad. Here are the prospect forwards and their points-per-game this season.
Yes, however, Carter Savoie’s offence is starting to come – a pop is in view.
The problem is more likely the coach than the prospects.
You’d think Gretzky the Younger would play a role in it too. Keith is in charge of BAK, so he should be ensuring the prospects get their playing time. It’s not like EDM might need players ready to call up during the stretch or into the playoffs…
It’s a organizational culture thing Hollands MO is a veteran squad he believes it gives the team the best chance of winning at the very moment. Why would Bakersfield be any different?
The Condors are playing Bourgault, Tulio, Lavoie, Savoie, Grubbe, Petrov, Broberg, Wanner nightly and the only one not getting solid minutes right now is Petrov, on merit.
A coach has to do more than send a player over the boards.
And what is it that you know Caulk isn’t doing?
A few folks are making some good coin to develop prospects from the draft and elsewhere. Exactly who on the Condors with upside has mature-impressed-surprised?
Skinner, Deharnais, Bouchard, McLeod
Lavoie, Philp, Tulio, Wanner, Grubbe, Rodrigue
I’d add Hamblin to that list as well.
The lack of prospects bubbling over probably has more to do with a lack of high draft picks than development.
Maybe time to stash Kane on LTIR until playoffs.
Soupy too
They need Kane. And doesn’t Campbell play for the Condors?
Definitely agree on Campbell,
Vegas & Tampa had no issues subverting the cap to improve their team.
Kane looks like a player that is hampered by injury but still declaring himself fit to play.
Hopefully he gets over it soon
If you aren’t healthy enough to practice you are not healthy enough to play. Unless it’s playoffs or last 10 games of season fighting for playoffs.
Soupy going on LTIR is very financially beneficial for him than getting bought out which would cost him 1/3 of his contract which very well will be his last.
I’m not suggesting Kane needs surgery for a nagging injury but lots of players put it off until offseason. Kane is a streaky scorer he’s on pace for over 30 goals. If fans expect a Gordie Howe hat-trick from him every game I believe this is unfair.
So how do you put Campbell on LTIR if he is not injured????? Maybe see what Tonya is up to these days????
Correct response. Jack Campbell isn’t injured and isn’t eligible for LTIR. I don’t think the insurance company is just going to pony up millions…..
Last night truly was one of those “transcendent” performances by McDavid.
There was a highlight package out there of McDavid’s play on the 5 goals and, my goodness, not just 5 primary points but 5 spectacular primary points.
He only played 16 minutes and change last night!
And each assist was different:
no look backhand✔️
little bump for tap in ✔️
cross-grain tee up for slapper✔️
sauce over the sliding D✔️
Skating backwards while scoring was also kinda different. Just an astonishing display.
Coach K.K gets everyone involved this makes for a feeling good team on the ice and in the room. You sure don’t hear anymore about the ridiculous 11-7 deployment strategy where you double and triple shift Leon and Connor into the ground.
The 11/7 worked very well, so well plenty of other team’s league wide us it, when necessary, like the Flyers last night. Fortunately, it didn’t work out for them.
Don’t get me wrong it’s deployment is needed in a healthwise and capwise pinch but it’s not sustainable.
My estimates for team records after 41 games so far… Arizona 46, Nashville 47, Calgary 41, Edmonton 49, LA 53, Seattle 41, Vancouver 55 and Vegas (spits) 53. At halfway point puts us in WC1 and within shooting distance of top 3 in Pacific!
All for funsies… I will revisit this prediction likely with a side of crow, after each team has hit 41 games…. I might even do a trade deadline standings prediction at that time as well!
Are there stats on PP zone entries? McDavid must have more PP zone entries than any other NHL player by a significant margin. Rate of successful entries must be high too. I recall someone in LAK blocking him cold once. Otherwise the PP entry is predictable and effective by passing it to McDavid with speed somewhere in or before the neutral zone. Much like a video game move that always works, you could try and switch things up for fun, but why mess with success?
McD gets stuffed now and again. Particularly at the start of this season.
Tangential but oranges to apples: I used to love watching Weight gain the opposition blue line. Just had a knack.
Things I’d like Bruce to discuss after reading his article about shifting needs:
-Can Derek Ryan handle 3C minutes through to the end of the playoffs?
-Is it footspeed that makes McLeod more effective than Kane when playing with Draisaitl/Foegele?
-If not, is there still some healing to do that, once complete, would allow Kane to return to the top 6 with 2022-esque authority?
-Can Gagner effectively spell off Ryan at 3C from time to time once healthy? What was his injury?
-Is there any prospect of chemistry between Holloway and Kane as a pair of wingers?
They might try Holloway at 3c. If that works. He might be the answer to all your questions.
Or they might try him with Leon & Foegele on the second line and send MacLeod back to 3c. In other words, they have options.
I think the Oilers can conclusively conclude that Sam is not a viable centre.
I think many questions depend on deployment. Ryan is a very smart effective player. He’s also small, not faster than normal. If you put him with slow players or passive players, probably won’t work
Leon’s skating has been off this season, he has no jump and no sustain when he gets after it occasionally. So the play dies on stick Brown and injured can’t get around Kane winger set was bad, Leon wasn’t going to chase those pucks or attackers down. Knobby said as much in cryptic terms
Ryan and Sam can fill in anywhere except they are both older and neither were elite skaters. So long term I highly doubt they could sustain the energy needed
It’s understandable that Leon has shown signs of being burnt out on the forecheck. Leon has been ride hard and put away wet the last few years. Who knew all Leon needed was 2 speedy energizer bunnies forcing turnovers.
So, you missed Leon go coast to coast to coast with the puck last night? He passed everyone while lugging the puck 400 feet.
I saw his skating as good the last few games too
Kane’s numbers are good with the exception of +/- which seems to be beginning of the season slump and Connor Brown related. Suspect if we swapped him with McCleod he would do well with Drai/Foegele. The revelation is that McCleod did so well on the second line, definitely more impact than at 3C which creates the lineup conundrum. Kane is a valuable contributor and signed a value deal, third line is okay if he’s getting minutes but not the best if Ryan can’t drive offense as a center.
desperate times called for desperate measures…and maybe we can put the gun down now..
Wouldn’t it be great if this team has reached that maturity level we have been hoping for??Recent consistent results indicate we may be there…
We are so blessed to have McDavid play this sport and for this team!
Yesterday would have been a scheduled loss for many iterations of this team. Just after New Years, coming home, after a successful December.
Very impressive.
During Covid Bouchard practiced with the team but never played. The spot for Bouchard was played by Bear who was a third pair or at best second pair defenseman. This was the perfect spot to platoon Bear and Bouchard, in hindsight a missed opportunity for a top 10 draft pick.
In 2023/24 Broberg spent the season as the 7th or 8th defenseman. Kulak and Broberg should be platooned for the rest of the season, 3 games then the other guy for 3 games.
Kulak is being deployed like a rookie. No PP or PK time and in the last 5 games
Team/TOI/Shifts
Phli 13:33/ 16 Mid level team
Ana 18:28/ 23 Non play-off team – blow out
LAK 9:23/14 Play-off team
SJS 20;44/21 Non play-off team – blow out
NYR 10:41/13 Play-off team
The spot for Bouchard was played by Barrie. Barrie was Bouchard’s Ekholm.
Connor’s milestone night saw him hop over Ray Ferraro and Tony Amonte to reach #122 in the all-time scoring chart. 12 more points and he will overtake Scott Stevens, Gary Roberts and one Mr. Bobby Orr. At the rate he’s going, he might do it on the upcoming road trip. He would need to keep up a blistering pace and put up 90 more this season to knock Phil the thrill Kessel out of the top 100.
Connor now sits #12 among active players and will be #11 by season’s end, with all due respect to Blake Wheeler who is currently 34 points ahead of him. Connor is 647 points behind the active leader, Sidney Crosby, in 624 fewer games. Sid will probably have the honour of retiring the active leader, but you never know.
Connor (#5) needs just 3 more points to tie Glenn Anderson for #4 on the Oilers all-time list. He has 100 fewer goals (417 v 317) than Anderson and nearly 250 fewer games played (845 v 602).
#3 Mark Messier (1034 points) and #2 Jari Kurri (1043) will fall next season. Also next year McDavid will have played as many regular season games in an Oilers uniform as Gretzky (696).
#8 Nugent-Hopkins is just 1 point behind #7 Paul Coffey. He’s also fifth all-time for games played with 836, although he’s within a stone’s throw of Anderson (845) and Messier (851).
My, how time flies.
Insane that it’s probably going to take Connor 5 more full seasons as an Oiler after this one to pass Gretzky for the franchise lead.
McDavid earned that paintbrush last night. Pure control and grace and mastery.
Hard to comprehend how one player can control a hockey game to such a degree. Other sports, maybe. Anyway, McDavid enters the zone as if it were basketball: A sport where 5 players are fully engaged constantly and the game is meant to work through one or two guys. But he’s so good that he still controls a game while on the bench 2/3 of the time.
Nor is hockey football where the quarterback is… the quarterback. But 97 makes his teammates better by distributing the play, plotting the offense by reading the defence.
Soccer gets us closer but even then, players play the full match and the pace is generally under control, save for moments ignited by single, game-breaking bounces. It takes a real talent to bend that sport to their will.
Hockey is more chaotic than all the above while individual players have less agency over the outcome. But my God, last night Connor was effortlessly all of Messi, Montana, and Jordan.
Orr had seasons of +120 a couple of times, I believe. If he had not had his knees ruined.
Connor McDavid’s 5-point game last night was the 10th of his splendid career & the 150th in Oilers history.
You’ll never guess who is #1:
Gretzky 79 👀
Kurri 14
Coffey 10
McDavid 10
Anderson 6
Draisaitl 6
Messier 3
Lumley 3
Tikkanen 2
Nugent-Hopkins 2
15 others 1
Not surprisingly, Oilers have more 5-point games than any other club in NHL history, even those with a 6-decade head start:
Edmonton 150
Montreal 133
Pittsburgh 122
Boston 119
Chicago 99
Detroit 95
…
Would Pittsburgh be next?
It’s listed above. Pittsburgh is third behind Montreal.
Mario Lemieux had 51 such games, & of course he played his entire career in Pittsburgh, not just half of it.
In total Gretzky had 96 including 15 in Los Angeles & 2 with NYR.
OOPS I read that as the original 6 without doing best practices in hockey historiography by remembering that the Rangers have a sputtering history.
Toronto had 107 such games & were accidentally omitted above. The sputtering Rangers? Just 75, literally half of Edmonton’s total, in 97 seasons.
It’s hard to believe how clear we are from some of those original 6 teams when it comes to 5 point outbursts. The other surprise was Lumely tied with Messier. Out of all the 1 time 5 point nights the Pat Hughes 5 Goal game was the most rememberable for me and the best part it was against the Flames.
Remember it well. Gretzky, Kurri & Messier were all out, the Flames came to town on a 9-game unbeaten streak, & a couple of them were quoted in the morning Sun that this was their time to take a pound of flesh or words to that effect.
Big mistake.
By the 3-minute mark of the second period the score was 8-0 Oilers.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/198402030EDM.html
And they were all goals. Did they have the Safeway Score and Win back then? Under the current formula he would have made some lucky fan a millionaire that night…
The Flames had such a little cousin inferiority complex that it was hilarious the lengths they would as a team and fans go to.
Gretzky’s records are always so eyepoppingly ridiculous whenever I see them they always surprise me, no matter how many times I look at them.
Which makes TNT’s “Chasing Greatness” graphic they put on the screen after Bedard scored his first NHL goal, showing Gretzky with 894 goals and Bedard underneath with 1 goal, even more hilarious.
Bedard is a phenomenal player but with 37 games under his belt and 33 points, he is already significantly behind Gretzky.
And as transcendent as McDavid is, it looks like it’s already too late for McDavid to catch up to a lot of Gretzky’s records.
Last year people were predicting Ovechkin could break Gretzky’s goal record within 2 seasons, but seeing Ovechkin out there with a head of hair getting more and more silver each season, with only 8 goals this season and needing 65 more to pass Gretzky, it is looking more and more out of reach.
I don’t know what the point of my post is, other to point out the already obvious fact that Gretzky’s records are insane and generational players are falling behind in breaking them within the first 40 games of their careers in comparison to Wayne.
There’s still franchise records up for grabs! If McD stays fast and healthy!
Agree with all, but adjusting for era tightens things up methinks
79 5 point games!!! That is an absurd total😳
And that’s just with Edmonton. By the end of his career he had 96 5+ point games. I wonder how many were 6 or 7 points, but good God that means in these games, fewer than 100, he put up probably close to 600 points!
That 82% of Gretzky’s 5+ point games were with the Oilers, is also probably worth noting.
Yes, Wayne’s time in Edmonton was The Perfect Storm.
Back in 2010 I wrote a series of posts for the Copper & Blue about historical scoring, culminating in this one summarizing the number of times leading the league in goals, assists or points. Wayne had 32 such titles, next up were Howe & Esposito with 14, Lemieux with 12 & Bobby Hull with 10. In his 9 NHL seasons in Edmonton, the Great One led the league in G-A-P an astonishing 22 of a possible 27 times.
An updated list to today would have Ovechkin also at 10 & McDavid climbing the charts with 9. But Gretzky is still in a different universe.
https://www.coppernblue.com/2010/8/26/1650653/morenz-numbers
So did you develop your interest in the cosmos after Gretzky was traded to fill a void? Where else bu the expanse of the Universe are these statistical orders of magnitude comparable?
Origin Story.
while I was a kid, but took it to another level during the dynasty years when the Edmonton Space Sciences Centre first opened. Capacity in astronomical numbers proved useful when analyzing the Great One’s scoring feats.
Yup. THAT franchise record’s going nowhere.
All Ridonks.
Lordy Gretzky alone had 79? Detroit in their long history had 95 as a team? Inconceeeevable!
And 96 total? More than Detroit as a team? Lordy.
You could leave Coffee and Messier off that list and they would STILL have more 5 pt games than the second place team….
Gretzky actually had 96 in his career, “just” the first 79 in Edmonton. So he alone had more than the entire history of the Detroit Red Wings.
I wasn’t sure how Edmonton would do in December and through to the game last night. Guess they showed me. Such a spectacular turnaround. Amazing.
The soft parade is in front of them for all of January. So if they can keep near their current level of play, the wins should keep piling up.
and oh yes, a Giant walks among us 🙂
and hs feet never touch the ground.
I want to follow from last nights thread. Stuart Skinner is playing very very well. He kept us in there till McDavid could start to really click in the third. Congrats to Skindaddy. Now get Calvin some games.
Yeah, McD only had 3 points through 40 minutes. Good thing he woke up for the third. 🤣
I think you forgot the “really” part!
I am not sure anyone was comfortable going into the third and Stu was keeping them in there.
Yes he was, even with the 2 quick GA. Philly had the Oil on the back foot in their own end at tims.
Will be interested to see who gets the net for the Condors tonight.
Rodrigue with 5 straight starts and, while he wasn’t poor, the 5th was the worst of them and Jack made apx 30 stops and only 2 goals against in a win (both “interesting goals against” but not awful and he did make many solid stops).
Will be interesting to see if Holloway is assigned to the Condors and in the lineup tonight.
Right after the game last night, Stauff suggested that, while Holloway looks amazing at practice, he thinks the org may send him down for a few games for conditioning.
With the team rolling, there is no huge rush to get him in there and, truth be told, if they have any thought of playing him at center, I think 3 games in the middle in Bako would be a prudent 1st step.
Wouldn’t hurt (I hope!! – looking for wood to knock) to have him play a few games in Bako. At this point missing 2-3 more NHL games should not change his career. Maybe they can get him some games at C down there and have him a little more prepared to C at the NHL. Incremental steps…
Makes sense.
Also we’re accruing daily cap space to be used at the deadline, or to take a bite out of Brown’s bonus for next year…I believe a conditioning stint extends that?
It wouldn’t be a “true conditioning stint” via the CBA provisions (for which there are parameters and cap implications).
They can simply re-assign him given he does not need to clear waivers – his cap hit will be gone during re-assignment.
I love how every time the “Rubber hits the road” we go on a winning streak.
Prospectalogo!
The NA amateur spotlight shines solely on Nathan Day, who’s mired in a stretch that’s seen him win only one of his past seven starts. His season GAA is exactly 4 while his SV% is a ghastly 85.9%.
Can he rebound to begin the New Year? All will be revealed when the puck drops @ 5 p.m. Pickardville time.
sounds like you were correct. Wenatchee may unload EVERYBODY …..
Unfortunately, it would seem Day is running out of daylight… hasn’t exactly established himself as a serious prospect by his performance since draft day….