If you’re wondering about this year’s crop of rookie pros, led by Max Wanner, Jayden Grubbe and Matvey Petrov, I’d suggest the group has shown well overall in the early days of the season. Two AHL contracts, Cameron Wright and Ethan de Jong, give the crop some depth. There is no first-round selection in the group, but there is talent. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the trio (Wanner, Grubbe, Petrov) emerged as a 400+ game NHL player.
Follow up question: What about next year? WHO will be the rookie pros in 2024-25?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why NHL’s goalie trade market a strange brew for Oilers
- Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- Lowetide: Oilers goalie prospect Olivier Rodrigue reaches new performance level
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s concerning season and what it means to the Oilers.
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers are undergoing a changing of the guard on defence
- Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
- Lowetide: Ranking the Edmonton Oilers’ top 6 trade assets
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
- Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
- DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
- DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHEN THE PIPELINE DRIES UP
There aren’t many players to sign this summer, ladies and men. Brady Stonehouse will turn pro in the fall, but after that it’s miles and miles of uncertainty. Beau Akey is signed, but has another season of junior eligibility. His injury wiped out just about all of this season, so a year in the OHL is likely. The Oilers have two dandy Russian prospects (Maxim Berezkin and Nikita Yevseyev) but they have another year to go on their KHL contracts. Shane Lachance is likely to stay in school for another year (or more).
- Luca Munzenberger could turn pro and has shown signs of improvement based on basic math. Plus/minus is not a statistic to be revered but it’s all we have. In his three college seasons, the number has improved from -17 to -9 to +6 with the University of Vermont. He’s a pure defender and the Oilers could use him in Bakersfield this fall.
- Matt Copponi is a RH center and is at past a point-per-game with Merrimack College. I’m not sure why he wasn’t drafted earlier, it appears he is a real prospect and is 20. This is his junior season, one more year to go if he chooses. He’s a RH pivot, I can see Edmonton prying him out of college.
- Joel Maatta is a LH center with some size, scored 14 points in 36 games a year ago but the offense has dried up. Munzenberger’s teammate. I feel an AHL deal coming on.
- Tomas Mazura is a RH center for St. Lawrence University. He has done the “Eddie Caron” in college, transferring more often than he scores. Found some traction last season in the ECAC and is 3-7-10 in 14 games this year. A distant bell that may ring true with an NHL signing.
OILERS 2024-25 PROJECTED DEPTH CHART (OILERS AND CONDORS)
- Goalies (3): Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue, Jack Campbell
- Left Defense (4): Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Brett Kulak, Ben Gleason
- Right Defense (4): Evan Bouchard, Cody Ceci, Phil Kemp, Max Wanner
- Center (5): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Lane Pederson, Jayden Grubbe, Carl Berglund
- Left Wing (5): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan McLeod, Evander Kane, Drake Caggiula, Matvey Petrov
- Right Wing (6): Zach Hyman, Derek Ryan, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Jake Chiasson, Brady Stonehouse
- RFA (9): G Ryan Fanti, D Philip Broberg, D Noel Hoefenmayer, D Cam Dineen, D Markus Niemelainen, C James Hamblin, C Dylan Holloway, LW Raphael Lavoie, LW Carter Savoie
- UFA (7): G Calvin Pickard, D Vincent Desharnais, LW Warren Foegele, LW Mattias Janmark, LW Adam Erne, RW Connor Brown, RW Sam Gagner
- Slide: D Beau Akey
The new general manager is going to experience some things in the offseason. If I were him, I’d entertain having the following players on the opening night NHL roster
- Stuart Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue
- Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen
- Evan Bouchard, Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais
- Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod, James Hamblin
- RNH, Evander Kane, Dylan Holloway
- Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, Raphael Lavoie, Derek Ryan
That’s 20 names, with enough do-re-mi to add some nice pieces (assuming a Jack Campbell buyout). The Connor Brown bonus eats away much of the cap room, so more probably needs to be done. I wonder if Vincent Desharnais pursues free agency. I would retain Philip Broberg.
It’s Friday! That means a rocking show noon to 2 on Sports 1440. We’ll have Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and Declanations on the show, and talk about the dangers of Ottawa v Edmonton during the Christmas season. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I’m confused about the Holloway situation.
I was under the impression he’s being sent down for an LTIR conditioning loan, max 6 days or 3 games…player remains on LTIR but gets paid NhL salary….makes sense for the team to keep accruing cap.
But cap friendly is showing it as a traditional assignment as Holloway is waiver intelligble? Can anyone speak to this?
Like you said Holloway is waiver ineligible and his cap hit is fully buriable. So it doesn’t really change things one way or the other. LTIR doesn’t help you accrue cap space. You have to be under 82M cap to do that.
I’m not sure why I keep reading about a conditioning stint helping the team continue to accrue cap space, that is not correct.
To start with first principles, generally teams due no accrue any cap space while using LTIR although the Oilers were at the end after sending Gleason down (they were under their adjusted cap accrual threshold) but, by just sending Holloway down normal course, they remove his entire cap hit from their calculation (and remove the LTIR space) and their daily hit is more materially under the threshold or accrual.
I think people don’t know. Your explanations are appreciated, and I personally enjoy your edgy verbal at these times.
Matt Copponi. 1.17 points per game as a 20 year old (age 20 and 3 months as of Oct 1st this season).
Starting back a couple of years to give a little bit of runway to see where comparable players are at… Here are similar NCAA scorers (ie +/- 0.10 points/game) to Copponi at a similar age (+/- 1 year).
21-22
Sean Farrell 19.10 yrs 1.17 p/game (6 NHL games, 2x US WCh team member)
Carter Savoie 19.8 yrs 1.15 p/game (struggling in Bakersfield)
Brendan Brisson 19.11 yrs 1.11 p/game (Vegas 1st rounder in 2020, 2nd AHL yr)
20-21
Shane Pinto 19.10 yrs 1.14 p/game (82 20-15-35 last season)
Elijah Gonsalves 20.6 yrs 1.10 p/game (somehow still in college)
19-20
Logan Hutsko 20.7 yrs 1.10 p/game (playing in SHL)
18-19
Josh Norris 19.6 yrs 1.12 p/game (164 66-47-113 in NHL)
Brandon Biro 20.6 yrs 1.08 p/game (6 NHL games, high end AHL player)
17-18
Troy Terry 20.0 yrs 1.23 p/game (NHL all star)
Nick Halloran 20.4 yrs 1.22 p/game (decent SHL/Liiga player)
Tanner Laczynsi 20.4 yrs 1.15 p/game (38 NHL games, solid AHL player)
Odeen Tufto 20.8 yrs 1.08 p/game (mediocre ECHL player)
Mixed bag for sure, but for me this is a promising set of comparables for Copponi given where he was drafted.
Interesting look. Reading up on Pinto Norris Terry, the best of the players there, it doesn’t seem like Matt is in that level. They are all bigger, good skaters and more skilled
Matt’s scouting says he’s a smart hard working player. Not a bad set of strong points, the kind of traits Holland likes, but being smaller and I don’t see mention of plus skating, probably a real long shot
Really after round two (1 and 2 are somewhat more predictable), speed and skill are what should be top of the list. We have discussed prospects for years, drafting role players and those still needing to learn to skate at a high level, is almost always a wasted pick
Holland doesn’t even follow his own alleged drafting MOs it seems
Good grief the Sabres are stacked with forwards and forward prospects. They also have two young, first pick d man on the roster. Despite this the Sabres still continue to struggle and are likely looking for answers. I hate to even suggest this but wonder if a deal including Leon can get something like Thompson, Krebs, Kulich (pick your prospect preference) out of the Sabres. Thompson and Kulich (based on today) both appear to have Leon type one timers so could fill that role on the PP. Thompson at 7.1 is likely a high value contract over the next 6 years. I think Krebs has potential, if played with skill, to be a middle 6. I love Leon but he is going to be 11 plus on the next deal and there is a risk of a downward decline with him on that contract. Just a random, out of the box thought that I have been mulling over today
No way, As a true fanatic I’d rather watch Mc-Drai and this core win only 1 or 2 cups and age out into oblivion playing their whole careers as oilers.
Your argument might be correct on a spreadsheet…but I can’t get on board.
We’ve watched these guys since they were pups…I remember when Drai lumbered around like a lanky giraffe struggling to score his 1st goal, and grown into a perennial 50g scorer…we will watch them reach the peak, and then we will watch them decline as heros in our community.
It still pains me that Smyth left over a botched negotiation, we must set the universe straight this time around.
I have long been fascinated by the Joe Nieuwendyk for Jerome Iginla trade. If my quick counting is accurate, Joe was traded after his Draft + 10 season which is this season for Drai (again is my quick counting is correct).
What’s crazy about that trade is Iginla had just been drafted. I’m too young to recall, maybe Nieuwendyk wasn’t as good as I think he was.
But I’ve long thought something like this is the way to go (provided you get it right). You trade a star player before their decline when they have great value in order to get a younger player who will provide you great value for years.
Maybe by the fact I can’t think of other similar trades means they just don’t get done.
Thompson wouldn’t be the target though. Someone like Fantilli would fit the mold, but with the Oilers in win now mode, they won’t consider that. Of course the cap savings could be used elsewhere…
Anyways, I’m a big Draisaitl fan, just having fun spitballing.
If they don’t win the cup this year, I’m not sure the cap says retaining Leon is the right path. Because not winning means they don’t have enough depth. That the duo can’t drag the group over themselves. Leon isn’t showing he can drive a line consistently. That’s fine, but less cap justifiable at 11-12M per
I like the Oilers more than the players on the Oilers. I am a fan of the team, which endures. I like the players of course, but most of them come and go. Connor is the exception, he is exceptional, unique, and rare
If your new GM looks at another Canadian top heavy team that also doesn’t launch, playoff expectations not met over years, and decides that being top heavy made depth too hard as it was, and it’s going to be worse, the answer seems obvious
3M ish salaries aren’t really the problem that needs solving
Having Leon at $11-$13M is not a “problem that needs solving”
Well there is a problem building a complete team with two guys making above 10M, and one at 9
Leafs?
Summarizing!
Day allowed the icebreaker but nothing more, making 21 stops in a 3-1 victory. He earned the 2nd star for his efforts.
Stonehouse, Mazura and Lachance were denied soup. They shall have to content themselves with expired baloney instead.
Jesse P. got back in to pro hockey tonight with Wilkes-Barre (he’s on an ATO to get some games before, presumably, signing with the Penguins if it goes well).
No points and even with 3 shots – zero idea how much he played or how he played.
Good for the kid to get back in to games though.
Glad he’s healthy enough to play. I give him a 5% chance of sticking past this season. A very likeable young man, I totally get why he’s going after it again, but I think he’ll find himself with a nice Euro career at the end of it
He doesn’t have the right tools combo for the NHL, given he’s not an elite scoring talent at the NHL level
Checking the standings it now looks like Harper’s Hair’s darlings the LA Kings are the most likely team Oilers pass in the standings – leaving LA possibly changing divisions for the playoffs…where they will cause all kinds of misery before getting booted out before the Conference Final.
LA are too draining to play in the 1st round.
The Canucks–strangely–look like the tough catch.
I don’t think the Oilers finish with less than 111 points this season (knock on wood). Home ice for at least one playoff series is certainly plausible.
Yeah, the Dy’s have made some good re-tools and Tochett got them to hit the ground running. They also got to play the ‘bad Oilers’ 3 times already. April 13th is the only (regular season) meeting left and that may be garbage time in terms of the standings.
I’d love the Oilers to match up vs the Dy’s first round though, a playoff-naive group who has skill but not much sandpaper.
HH is the sh!t Midas.
Everything he touches turns to sh!t.
Not sure I follow this.
This is all a little arbitrary, but I think illustrates that Vegas has easily been the weakest team of the 4 best in the Pacific since November 4. Team records since that date are as follows:
Edmonton – 18-7
Vancouver – 16-9-2
LA – 13-7-4
Vegas – 11-12-4
Well, my math skills are at best substandard.
I just see LAK sinking faster than the others, who are now in some kind of 5 way fight for the Conference title. Also Edmonton roundly beat them recently.
Is a 3-2 OT win considered “roundly beating” these days?
Kings fans think so.
All I’ve heard for 6 months is that Vegas is the only team without a weakness, so I have no idea what you’re on about.
(I agree you btw. IIRC that same juggernaut also missed the playoffs not so long ago).
That LA team could have been a real powerhouse team but thankfully they didn’t have the patience and made some awful awful trades
I saw Canada v Sweden and was amazed at how Canadians were so mediocre. No surprise at all that they ended up getting bounced.
Watching a maturing McDavid, it’s hilarious how hyped each 1st overall pick is – when its clear that most of them are nowhere near his level.
I suspect that this is Foegele’s last season as an Oiler. NHL contenders all seem to reach a point when useful but non-core players, particularly forwards, start pricing themselves off the team, and I think that’s where the Oilers are.
Foegele will be 28 this summer and will have grossed $8.8M so far in his careeer. He is on pace for 40-50 points – almost all at even strength – this season and this will probably be his best and probably only chance to earn life changing money as a hockey player. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he gets $4-5M AAV on a 4+ year contract.
The summer after next Drai is going to need $4-5M more per year, Bouchard will need $6-7M more per year and McCloud $2-3M more. McDavid will need $2-3M more the summer after that. There’s no way they’ll be able to afford that if they give a third line player like Foegele $4-5M AAV on a multi-year deal.
There’s a non-zero chance that next season is McCloud’s last as an Oiler for the same reason (though I suspect the plan may be to move Kane the summer after next to free up money for McCloud and McDavid – his NMC turns to a 16 team NTC that summer).
Here’s hoping the org turns a page with new GM, and recognizes this simple truth about Foegele, and all non McDavids
It doesn’t matter if or how much you like, the players like, the fans like, most players. There is a cap, and a capped league is a cap efficiency contest at root
It’s great WF is playing well right now. Still he brings nothing extra outside of his points. No special skill, not physical. I think Holloway (if he could stay healthy) is at least as good a player in 20-30 games, maybe better
Glen Sather would drive Foegele to the airport. He’d be traded with a handshake and a big smile.
Sather then he’d receive some obscure player destined to become a vital cog in his next cup(winning) run.
Holland only has Stevie Y number when it comes to G.M’s and he doesn’t want Foegele. Holland however has Lucic number who was able to facilitate his own trade with Treliving. Maybe Lucic could pass on Treliving # for old times sake.
This bit is incorrect. Kane’s NMC turns into a 16 team mod-NTC on March 1, 2025, ie next season.
Good catch! That should mean that Kane becomes tradable shortly before the trade deadline next season.
Holland did a really good job ensuring that the Oilers have options in the back half of the Kane contract.
I think that there needs to be a leadership change down on the farm. If the organization values Gretzky then bring him back up here or send him scouting. I don’t think that he is a development guy at heart.
The WHY the Condors exist has to burn in the heart of the leaders and it will transcend down throughout the club. The WHY is to develop players.
When I hear Gretzky talk I don’t think that is where his heart is. If it’s not in the heart of the leader it’s not in the heart of the organization (people, structures, processes, culture, etc).
Also development in not in his top skillsets from what I see. I hear that he has an eye for what players lack (which is the easy part actually – we all can see those things) but not sure he has the tools to help them succeed.
Maybe Gretzky is a loyal foot soldier, and somehow missed the Gretzky competitiveness genes
But he’s been passed over a few times. In my experience that doesn’t work in the long term, burnout or bitterness
I will not be surprised to see a largely new management group, probably at some point scouting as well
Ha ha ha comparing brothers is the definition of a hiding to nowhere.
As per Tony B., coach says that when they head on the road, they will call up a 7th d-man.
Gleason or could it possibly be Kemp?
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
3m
Oilers forward Sam Gagner is ready to return for tomorrow’s game vs. OTT, but coach Kris Knoblauch said he won’t be in the lineup. The Oilers are on a winning streak, so Gagner will have to wait and get more practice time.
——————————
I’d play him over Erne.
That is the call skill and production wise, but Knobby is team building, which is a balance of things. Might need Mr Erne at some point more than is hoped for
Vancouver’s cap situation is interesting.
Petterson an RFA, he will be seeking $11M+ ($3M raise)
Hronek will likely be looking for a $3M raise too.
OEL’s buyout jumps by $2.2M next year, and another $2.2M the following year to $4.7M
So that’s an $8M increase standing pat.
Myers, Zadorov and Cole all expire as UFAs, free $12M…so they can likely only add one of them back. leaves them with a top 4 of Hughes, Hronek, Soucey and one of above 3…with Poolman and rookies for the bottom pair.
You know what, all they’re actually in pretty good shape…if they dump one of Garland or Kuzmenko they’re golden….shit!
where is our Nucks expert btw ? he hasn’t posted since a while
Come on Sweden
The Oiler farm system has been used to matriculate 8 of the current Oilers, Nuge 19 games in a lock out season and Draisaitl and Nurse for under 10 games are not REALLY building young men into NHL player. The 5 others are James Hamblin, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard, Vincent Desharnais and Stuart Skinner.
The combined total of games for the 8 is 659 or 82 games, to become a NHL pro in this system.
Raphael Lavoie has played 156 minor pro games in the Oiler system.
Dylan Holloway has played 45 minor pro games in the Oiler system.
Philip Broberg has played 53 minor pro games in the Oiler system.
Olivier Rodrigue has played 80 minor pro games in the Oiler system.
In the AHL these young men earn about a 10% of an NHL salary. Today’s agents are not going to have these guys significantly over ripen. Holland will need to use this group either as trades or play them on the NHL team.
How refreshing not to have to worry about the NHL team.
Today’s agents is right – they have more influence in what goes on than anyone realizes. Oilers have 3 or 4 in the AHL that would be regulars with SJ or Chicago while making an NHL salary. Every year not in the NHL is looked at as lowering career earnings. All about timing
These players are all under team control for many many years and nothing their agent can do can change that.
I would also note that the Oilers offered Raphael Lavoie a high AHL salary, much higher for him to sign below his QO at the NHL level, his agent encouraged him to take the deal and he refused.
Something about “betting on himself”.
Son of a……………..
g
Bakersfield Condors
@Condors
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Due to a water main break at Pechanga Arena significantly affecting the event level, both games this weekend in San Diego have been postponed. No make-up dates have been determined. #Condorstown
..and some people have been suggesting the Oilers pipeline has been compromised…
I’ll see myself out
I nearly blew a gasket…
If Holloway, Broberg, and Lavoie did not have bad luck…(in this case, bad breaks)…they would have no luck at all.
At least Holloway won’t get injured this weekend.
BREAKING – The water main that broke at Pechanga Arena caused a valve to launch which hit passerby and Oilers forward, Dylan Holloway, in the shoulder requiring significant surgery and possible amputation.
Believe it or not this happened to someone I know a small plug on a fire cannon shot out 100 feet and nailed him as he was walking down a pathway.
So much for going to the game on Saturday 🙁
The Sports Aroma and surrounding area been showing its age for some time.
Oh, ya, huge bummer for you – sorry about your luck.
Do you think Vinny might get more opportunity/minutes elsewhere? I have a feeling that Vinny is a guy that will be hugely loyal to the Oilers org and, if all else is equal, would sign-back.
Of course, the difference between, say, $850K and $1MM is material – I could see that scenario playing out and him getting a few extra dollars elswhere.
NHL GM’s have been known to overpay for size and truculence.
Who’s his best comparable?
His offer from the oilers and will depend largely on this year’s playoff performance. He was exposed last year in his 12 playoff games…getting turnstiled, like the opponent had his cement boots pegged on the bulletin board as a weakness.
As it stands today, I can’t see the oilers offering him more than $1.2M, he might get $1.8 in the open market.
Logan Stanley just picked up $1M 1yr as an RFA, similar age, size, stats…but Stanley has draft pedigree (17th overall). Too bad Stanley will expire as an RFA so no useful comp here.
Of all the UFA dmen signed or extended in the last 12 months, the avg seems to be around $3M…with a cap bump and a good playoffs, It wouldn’t be absurd if Desi gets over $2M in FA
This is where a strong GM makes a play, starting now. I love Vinnie’s story, seems like a top notch team mate. But the the hockeying at the NHL level overall, is a big stretch for him
Teams used to be able to carry role players whose roles might be hockey optional. These days no, there isn’t a regular roster spot for a tweener/cheerleader
Fine out where Vinnie is at, and if it’s about more money and term (which it should be, his earnings potential is limited) get value for him. Not a hard replacement other than the truculence. It’s possible Kemp could step right in at a similar hockey quality level
I can’t imagine Deharnais getting close to that in free agency.
If he can get a 2nd year at something near the $1.25MM range, I think he’ll jump at it. If the Oilers offered that right now (and I don’t think they should), he would likely jump at it.
Broberg sounds ready for the NHL. With Coffey in charge I doubt if there will be too many problems.
careers are short; he (rightfully) takes the best offer
Is there any reason that Pickard couldn’t be the backup all year? When he came into the league he had 2 years as a successful backup, and one as a less than average starter on a terrible team. After that he bounced around and didn’t find his game until he came to Bakersfield, could this be his resurgence? He is same age as Campbell and close to same career save percentage. Maybe he could be good enough.
I endorse this comment!
I’m just thinking about a scenario where you’re 2-1 down in round 2, going into game 4 against Vegas, and Skinner has been suspect. Do you want Pickard starting a must-win game?
No. Picard has been a mediocre NHL backup his entire career.
I don’t know if I’d go that far, but it has been a long time since anyone has considered him as a potential starter. He’s also never played in an NHL playoff game.
Well that’s not true at all, he was a good backup and then flopped completely.
He was good for his first two seasons. Since 2016, his numbers are a dog’s breakfast.
Well, Jack Campbell prolonged the Oilers playoffs last year with a stellar performance in LA.
Pickard is easily that good. I’d certainly prefer the Oil get a legit rental G for this year’s playoff drive but won’t fret if management spends the pittance available on another position.
See, that there is some dangerous thinking. I’m rooting for Pickard too, but he’s appeared in 15 NHL games over the last 4 seasons plus this one. As I said before, the next playoff game he gets into will be his first.
A lot of people didn’t like the Campbell signing at the time, me being one of them, but I don’t think anyone was of the mind that he wasn’t an NHL starter. Big difference between throwing in a legit starter having a bad year in vs a career journeyman.
I can’t agree with the statement that no one thought that he wasn’t an NHL starter. Pre Oilers he had once played the majority of reg season games for his team, 21-22 for the Leafs, he turned 30 in season
20-21 his first full Leaf’s season he backed up (22 GP, .921 SV%) but started the 7 playoff games, .934 SV%. They lost
21-22 was 49 starts .914 SV%. Playoffs he got the 7 starts, .897 SV%. They lost
Jack’s best hockey was his draft season. Pretty good stuff at 4 different aspects, between US programs and international. Dallas made a good pick
But he started struggling after that. There wasn’t a huge cliff but if you look through the numbers, instead of building each step, he started seeing hickups. He started seeing ECHL time after 68 AHL games. The most AHL starts he had was 40, he didn’t take a net at that level either. His SV% started slowly dropping. For a high draft pick he hadn’t claimed an NHL net as he hit that age
Rodrigue has built each step. It’s not usually a linear progression for non elite players, and often not for them either, but that is a strong sign of a good player, if a fella does it. Rod is slaying and we know it’s not ‘because team’
Back to Jack, if a dummy like me can look at numbers and see a troubling progression, what up Kenny? I also used the ‘Dusty Book’ (Capfriendly version), and also did no due diligence
I’m just thinking about a scenario where it’s game one of the SCF, and your red hot starting goalie gets injured after his own defenseman pushes an opposing player into him. To make matters worse, your bonafide back up is eating popcorn in the press box, while your third string goalie proceeds to lose the game (and likely series) because of a boneheaded goalie carousel.
Definitely not bitter.
I’m trying to remember if this was the same year as subbing Mike Morrison into shootouts cold because he had a good shootout record. MacT was good at a lot of things as a coach, goalie management was not one of them.
MacT wasn’t immune to SMITR syndrome
There is no magic formula with most players. There are a few that almost always rise to an occasion if healthy. Other than that you have to be able to recognize who the best players are available to be used
MacT as said did not do that with the goalies then. For right now, the thing is to know what you have in house. And then what is available. It doesn’t matter what Picard has done, can he be the backup now? I assume that’s why they signed him. Never know with the Oilers still
If Picard doesn’t have any fatal flaws, what are the chances they will be able to get better? If he does, why on earth did they sign him to be in this position potentially?
never happens
Bandaid ripped
I don’t think anyone wants to play there backup goalie in that situation. And would you be more comfortable with blackwood in that scenario? I’m not against an upgrade, just what’s the cost and who are you getting
As Vegas reminded us last year, goaltending is a total crapshoot.
If Brossoit hadn’t gotten injured, Vegas may never have started Adin Hill … I’m not saying that that they still wouldn’t have gone on to win the Cup … but it would be Brossoit making 4.9 million/year for Vegas, instead of 1.75 million/year with Winnipeg.
Vegas won because they were a deep talented, fast and physical team. Same thing with Colorado the year before when they beat us with Francouz in net.
Every playoffs there are stories of goalies coming out from nowhere to help their team go on an epic playoff run.
Don’t spend significant assets for mediocre goalies … these guys run hot and cold, depending on their confidence levels. Try to get them on the cheap for late round picks or on waivers, and stockpile them wherever possible.
I don’t think any of the goalies who LT identified are worth spending the assets that you could’ve used to upgrade Nurse’s RHD partner. I’d rather let Pickard and or Rodrigue play instead … your own organization’s mediocre goalies are just as likely to have a hot streak in the playoffs, as another organization’s mediocre goalies.
If/when Toronto or Buffalo recall Samsonov or Comrie, they should take a hard look at using re-entry waivers on one of those two.
I’m with you on this. I’m not convinced it’s worth what it’s likely to cost to just upgrade the backup goalie position. If we’re spending firsts I’d rather see it go on an upgrade to 2RD or 3C/2RW Whichever one is more needed to get us over the hump.
I’m definitely not convinced that the answer is going to lie with most of what’s going to be available in trade in the goalie pool. LT’s Athletic article does a great job of going through the though process regarding this.
https://theathletic.com/5178114/2024/01/05/nhl-trades-goalies-oilers/
Def worth a read.
No indication the org is even remotely considering this… not to mention, to find an upgrade on both Ceci and his contract will cost FAR FAR more than the upgrade of a backup goalie.
Pairing is posting good numbers, no pressure from the media, the general fanbase, nothing in the tea leaves whatsoever… Must be one of those twitter pipedreams, with emphasis on the pipe.
Renting a James Reimer for the rest of the season would cost ALOT less than upgrade on Ceci – that’s not even in the same ball-park
Re-entry waivers has not existing as an active concept for a LONG time.
There isn’t re-entry waivers anymore. If they were going to claim them, they had to do it on their way down.
Yes honestly. That timeframe where I had mentioned Pickard has played 15 games, Blackwood has played 153, most of those as his team’s starter.
That’s fair, I just figure if Pickard plays well until the trade deadline maybe he will be just as good as anyone we might pick up, goalies are always fickel when switching teams.
Is Fleury available?
Pickard has won a gold and a silver in the IIHFand has also won a Calder Cup. He is not a raw rookie. His save percentage this season is better than Skinners. He is already performing at the NHL level despite very few starts.
Nothing wrong with going with Pickard, providing they use this season to assess him properly.
That was the problem before current management(coaching). Us fans, suffering as we watch the team fail, never knowing what these clowns were thinking, or were liable to do,
And I doubt if they themselves knew either lol
I’m not arguing against Pickard here, but their career SV% are not really very close (.909 vs. .903).
Campbell played his 1st game in 13-14 and Pickard in 14-15.
They are 2 of the 92 goalies to play at least 100 games since 13-14.
Campbell is tied for 48th of the 92 in SV% (with Quick, Anderson, Reimer, Lehtonen and Lack).
Pickard is tied for 85th of the 92 in SV% (with Korpisalo, Samsonov, Hutchinson and Husso).
Ha crazy, never thought that half a percent would move them so far apart on the list. What is that like 1 extra goal against for every 200 shots? Oh well would be interesting to know what derailed Pickard from a relativly strong start in the league to not even a back up. As an oiler fan i hope he has his game back and edmonton has a cheap back up for free.
6/1000 apart?
Not close at all?
Mmmmkay.
LT, you expecting Derek Ryan to retire?
EDIT: I see you have him on the roster but must have just missed including him on the depth chart.
I’d love to get him out of Vermont but has he earned an ELC? I could see him signing an AHL deal.
Ever time Tarkus tells us this guy has posted some numbers, I wonder/ask “what does this offence mean”. I mean, his numbers at his age in the NCAA is highly notable. Is he a real prospect, from the depth of the draft again (Wanner, Petrov, Deharnais)?
He’ll for sure be back in the OHL – he’ll still be too young for the AHL next season.
Very much looking forward to the Lavoie/Holloway/Pederson start tonight.
Rodrigue wasn’t bad even though he gave up 5 goals on 28 shots last game, the defensive group was awful, but I’d be surprised if Jack didn’t get the start tonight – they play back to back so I presume a split.
Seeing how you are intelligent, insightful, and a fantastic analyst; which of the AHL team do you think are going to make the NHL?
Prospectiary!
It’s a quartet who takes the ice for NA amateurs.
Day is caught in a trap and can’t walk out, having dropped seven of his last eight decisions. Shall redemption be his this eve? We wait.
Lachance and his BU squad have been Terrier-izing their opponents, and are now ranked #2 in the nation.
Mazura has fallen off the pace a bit, having began the season at a ppg pace.
The House of Stone is off last year’s torrid scoring pace (37 yesteryear, not likely to repeat).
Flint (Day) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Uncas time.
Trigger warning LT!
An early January post with a draft board image leading the way… Too many bad memories.
Western Conference Bettman .500 leaderboard
Winnipeg +15
Colorado +14
VANCOUVER +13
Dallas +12
LOS ANGELES +11
VEGAS +10
EDMONTON +4 (.557)
Nashville +4 (.551)
Arizona +3
St Louis +2 (.527)
SEATTLE +2 (.526)
CALGARY +1
Minnesota -1
ANAHEIM -10
Chicago -14
SAN JOSE -18
biggest up and down shifts in pts. above Bettmam .500 since US Thanksgiving Day:
up 11 EDMONTON
up 9 Winnipeg
up 8 Colorado
down 6 SAN JOSE
down 7 Chicago
down 9 ANAHEIM
True story: Edmonton has the same number of regulation wins as Vegas, at 16. Vegas has 2 OT wins (Edmonton 1) and 4 shootout wins (Edmonton 2). And Edmonton has 4 games in hand.
The biggest difference is the 5 OT losses for the vegans vs only 1 for Edmonton.
Stupid Bettman point.
Vegas looked pretty bad last night. And they are 3-7-0 their last 10 games. I wouldn’t assume the top 3 in the Pacific are locked up. 1st place may not be out of the question for the Oilers.
Actually, Mazura is a LH shot.
I assume you got that off his HockeyDB page, which erroneously lists him as RH.
Interesting how a lot of our trade deadline will depend on how Holloway adapts to the pro level at 3C. It may the most crucial question facing the team right now. Goalie seems solid, although a better backup could be had. Wingers are solid, and we have more depth up front (although we could use a Patty Maroon maybe). Upgrade at 2 or 3RD?
3C is our glaring need (Ryan a great 4C, 3C is asking too much). If Holloway plays well, gets chemistry with Kane and whoever then forward wise i believe we are good.
Crazy we are here today. Playoff spot based on pts percentage.
As of now I believe we don’t have a 3rd and 4th rounder in 2024 and no 2nd rounder in 2025 we have no cap space to use as collateral this year and a extra 3M in the hole next year (Downtown Brown) Any tradeable prospect value like Broberg and Lavoie have been bearish after been buried in the organization. As of now Foegele would fetch a good return and his stock keeps going up. Do you hold on to this player and let him walk in the off-season or do you continue to pump and then dump this player at the deadline or sooner?
One lets Foegele play out his contract unless someone makes an offer too good to refuse. The Oilers are on a Cup Quest.
Bowman and the Blackhawks were very smart they pumped and dumped many a player.
If you are a true contending team you don’t trade out useful players.
I mean the Oilers literally traded Barrie last season.
Contending teams trade useful players when they are upgrading.
The hope is to “add” at the deadline but, with zero cap space, they can’t “add” without moving out so, yes, “upgrading” is the way forward just like last season.
The reality is it takes a useful player to get one in return this is how trades work. I don’t believe Jackson-Coffey will allow Holland to trade the 1st in 2024 or 2025 this will completely gut our future dreadful prospect pool even more.
They typical deadline deal does not take a useful current player, in fact, that has generally been the exception. The general deadline deal is a non-playoff team getting picks/prospects back for their veteran free agents.
These days, with so many teams tight to the cap, a “useful player” sometimes needs to go out for cap reasons but that’ not the typical deadline deal.
So a straight up trade of a useful player for another useful player is non-existent is todays NHL.
C’mon Reja, you can read better than that. Twist people’s words and they’re not going to engage with you. If you don’t want engagement, why are you here?
Its his MO – most of his responses to me are strawman arguments.
Who said “non existent”?
Of course not but, well, ya, contract terms are such a key part of any deal that on ice value vs. on ice value without regard to contract is mostly non-existent.
J. Hubrudeau is a better player than, say, Mattias Janmark but there is no chance the Oilers would make that trade (even if they had cap room).
This is not some new revelation cap space and term is king it doesn’t matter if the trade happens July 1st, Jan 6th or at the trade deadline it is paramount. Regardless of this there is still straight up hockey trades that still happen. We all know there’s no money in the piggy bank to sign Foegele next year if a team fancies Foegele and the return is beneficial to us for the rest of the year and possibly longer you pull the trigger. I like Foegele who’s a pending free agent as much as the next person but if he’s on your untouchable list then your team is in deep doo-doo.
This is a wild response.
Firstly, hockey trades do happen but pure hockey trades are somewhat rare these days and even moreso near the trade deadline.
To the rest of the post, that rant about Foegele and what not, I have no idea what that is all about. I never posted anything about Foegele or any particular trade scenario or proposal – that was just random stuff.
Speaking about Jan 6th wasn’t Seth Jones traded for Ryan Johansen in a straight up trade a few years back. As I remember RNH name was more than just mentioned before the trade went down.
Roster players for a top team are usually summer deals. Foegele and Kulak had a lot of cache after the playoffs. Holland felt continuity (he said) was more important than depth (consequence)
Although if he does go after a deadline deal like Ek some salary will probably have to go out
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/1743291962508165222?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
anyone want to guess where Bouchard Ekholm rank?
MUSIC.
Any chance you know who is who with the other two pairs? I’m guessing the one in the left top quadrant is Nurse/Ceci, and even they’re slightly above treading water going by my eyeballs and the scales on the JFresh graph.
The start to this season was such a bizarre time.
Kulak and Desharnais in top right
nurse and Ceci in top left
Which is why so hard for Broberg to break in
Management and coaching believe they only need six defensemen to win the Stanley Cup.
So allocate all the ice time to six defensemen, instead of to more sensibly split up the games and ice time to seven defensemen.
Given they started 2-9-1 and even after an 8 game win streak and a 6 game win streak are not in a playoff spot by points, I think the team (management, coaching staff, players) were focused on icing their best lineup every single night given how important every single point in the standings has become.
I absolutely agree that Broberg should be playing real minutes in the NHL but, for the last 2 months, the sole focus was 2 points every night and not about ensuring a 7th d-man was getting reps for the stretch drive and playoffs.
Coaching by superstition is not a way to win Cups. Explain it to the team and to the defense core. We are going to need at least seven defensemen to go all the way, so we have to load manage seven D for six spots.
I will explain the position in different words. When the new coaching staff took over, I believe they determined that points were so important, every available point, that loan management could not be any factor and the only factor was icing the team that gives them the best chance to win on any given night.
Given they’ve been pretty much the best team in the league since then and still aren’t in a playoff spot is evidence that they weren’t (and aren’t) in a position to load manage – not until the team is better positioned in the standings, right?
I still think we end up seeing him back in the NHL before the end of the year. All it takes is an injury and he’s called back up.
We might see him back on Monday – the Oilers will be calling up a d-man prior to the road trip.
Bouchard and Ek obviously unreal.
All the Oilers D showing pretty well!
In contrast to SJ, who the graph shows has 5 of the 6 worst D men in the league… WOOF!
which helps to give context to the chart -> playing with McDavid/Hyman > playing with Zetterlund/Hoffman