Oilers fans have been to hell and back since the summer of 2006. No fan base is more in tune with possible danger than someone who has been observing the good ship Oiler since the Pronger trade. Last night feature some chaos, we’ll call it loose strings and feedback, but the club came through with another win. Will Oilers fans ever lose the paranoia? IS it paranoia? Or well founded concern?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers complete 2023-24 prospects update
- Lowetide: Why NHL’s goalie trade market a strange brew for Oilers
- Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s concerning season and what it means to the Oilers.
- Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 2-0-0, 4 points in 2 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 20-15-1, 41 points in 36 games
Edmonton awakes this morning in a playoff spot. If the season ended today, the Oilers would play the Winnipeg Jets in the opening round. I think there’s a chance this team makes it into the top three in the Pacific, but some team will need to falter. We’ll see.
THE NUMBERS
I want to take a moment and talk about Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner today.
Hyman is a truly rare item in this part of the world. An unrestricted free agent who increases his value after signing a long-term deal for big money? What in h-e-double-hockey sticks is going on around here? If you were to describe Hyman’s playing style and why he’s effective, gorgeous words and poetry would not be the tools. His words are relentless, sixth sense, determination, fierce, unavoidable. There is nothing subtle about his game, it’s clear and obvious. He is the ultimate drive to the net hockey player and uses every asset he owns on every play. I love watching him. I imagine his behaviour in real life (get out of his way if he’s headed to the fridge or the bathroom!) and wonder if he was like this as a child (an interview with his Grade 1 teacher would be most informative). I love Zach Hyman’s hockey. Music!
Evan Bouchard is miscast visually for what he performs on the ice. He has a monster shot, but often scores on pucks sent to the net with the force of a paper airplane. His passing skills are sublime, stunning really, but the front end of the video on a brilliant pass (like the one to Hyman last night) has the same visual excitement as unlocking the front door with your keys. He’s a fantastic player, he is blossoming as an impact player, the world is his oyster but someone forgot to tell his face.
These two men are the hockey equivalent of David Byrne and Brian Eno. Unusual, eccentric, vague in their approach but capable of moments that touch all of the emotions in the human condition.
Stuart Skinner is the local boy makes good. The advantage of his being an Edmontonian is that he grew up in this city, he knows that the largest religion in town is Oilers hockey. No one has to tell him that Oilers fans want 10 goals, the goalie has to stop everything and the entire fan base never forgets one damn thing. He knows. He’s from here. Today, his five-on-five save percentage (.912) is gaining momentum, and he might be able to get to the outskirts of last season (.926) by year’s end.
Skinner is calm in the net, smooth and precise, eating up rebounds and playing consistently well. His five-on-five save percentage since November 23? It’s .926. Music!
LT, I can feel your feels for Zac Hyman. One of my all-time favourite Oilers is Andrei Kovalenko. See any similarities?
Drives to the net with abandon for sure. Hyman isn’t set cement in front of the net, and I’m going to suggest Hyman is a better passer (even though it’s mostly a second option). Kovalenko was a tank. I think Hyman is a more supple player. I do get the connection, though.
For me, the determination along the boards connects them. Strength, and some kind of self-generated desperation that’s fun to watch.
I was playing around with rolling 5-game 5×5 Expected Goal numbers (as one does on a Sunday). Was curious to see how this run stacks up over the last couple years.
Fun Fact: Did you know that the Oilers rolling 5-game 5×5 Expected Goals has stayed above 50% for the last year?
They dropped to 49.3% or so last January 3rd, 2023 or something of that nature. Since then, a whole year of every rolling 5 regular season game segment being above 50% in Expected Goals.
At least by that metric, this team has been remarkably consistent.
Pierre-Luc Dubois, 36 games played so far and 16 points in year 1 of an 8 x 8.5 million contract. All during a time where the Kings seem to have been riding an unsustainable high and look to be coming back down to Earth. I look forward to seeing how the rest of his season goes.
Noticed that his NMC doesn’t kick in until July 1.
I wonder if Leon will be signed by then.
Players don’t often want to join teams they’re repeatedly beat.
Thanks for inspiring,
It turns out CapFriendly has a Cost Per Point calculator….
IN DESCENDING ORDER, THE SHIT LIST
Let’s start with Cost per point, FORWARDS ONLY over $5M and removing any player that has played fewer than 15 games.
TJ Oshie is is last place, $5.75M, 21 games, 4 points.
TREVOR ZEGRAS $5.75m, 18 games, 5 points….WTF ZEGRAS!!!
Patrick Laine $8.7m, 18 games, 9 points….Huberdeau not looking so bad
Jakub Vrana $5.25, 45 games, 4 points
Jacub Silferberg $5.25, 37 games, 7 points
Evgeny Kuznetsov $7.8M 33 games, 13 points
Teimo Meyer $8.8M 28 games, 15 points
HUBERDEAU $10.5M, 39 games, 18 points
Ryan Johanson $8M, 40 games, 15 points
Pierre LucFRAUD Dubois $8.5M, 35 games, 16 measley points.
Brendan Gallagher
Josh Anderson
Jason Zucker
Onrej Palat
Alex Killorn
Anders Lee
Brayden Schenn
John Norris
Johnny HOCKEY
Rickary Rakell
Tyler Johnson
LINE OF RESPECTABILITY
Jamie Benn & Ovechkin, $9.5M, 37 games, 25 points…
Kevin Hayes, Anthony Cirelli, Jadon Schwartz
Dylan Cousins, Nico Hischier, Yanni Gourd
Tyler Seguin, Andrew Copp, Cam Atkinson, John Tavares
Troy Terry, Anthony Matha, Adam Henrique,
Tyler Bertuzzi, Jordan Eberle, Jordan Kryou.
STILL NOT SEEING ANY OILERS!!!
Svechnicov, Pageau, B. Tkachook, Boldy, Caulfield, Hertl, Skinner
Kuzmenko, Coutourier, Thompson, Kopitar, Danault, MARNER
Wilson, Larkin, Other Tkachook
Backlund, Kaprizon, Barbashev
Mathews, Hintz, Kyle Connor,
Fiala, Mangiapane, Kadri,
DID I SORT THIS LIST WITHOUT OILY BOYS?
Strome, Smith, Stuzle
Teravainen, Rust, Shmaltz.
Stone, Eichel, Palmieri
Barkov, Suzuki and FINALLY,
CONNOR MCDAVID @ $231K PER POINT
Now in ASCENDING ORDER , same criteria, $5M+, 15+ GP
$ per point
#1 William Nylander (gotta love the irony)
#2 Sam Reinhart
#3 Zach (Buster) Hyman
#4 Ryan NUUUUUGEnt Hopkins
Guentzel
Kucherov
Trochek
Miller
Konecny
Nichushkin
Petterson
Kempe
Sheiffle
Boesser
Farabe
Marchand
Hughes
Marchesault
Bratt
Coyle
Nelson
Aho
Karlsson
Malkin
Rantenen, Kreider, Bjorkstrand
Forsberg, Mackinnon, Thomas, Robertson
Buchnevick
DRAISAITL
Pasta, Ehlers, Zucarello, Debrincat
Tarasenko, Giroux, Panarin
Crosby, Compher, Evander KANE
Strome, Horvat, Stamkos
Zibenejad, Point, Mcann
Barzal, Keller,
CONNOR MCDAVID
Nice to see others coming around on Blake. Wonder who is going to score on L.A. as the Danault line comes back to earth?
Should be early February when everyone realizes that the Western Conference is a bust. By that point the Oils will be knocking on Pacific 1 so that’ll make for some fun.
Jets running a helluva heater but look at that defense and ask yourself who would be worried about them in the playoffs? A pure garbage chunk of schedule and the Chattering Class is tripping over themselves to anoint them front runners. Yawn, watch that commitment to defense melt away as the schedule gets tougher and all the Jets “leaders” hit the fun button again as they travel around. Rinse and repeat.
Perfect out of town scoreboard with each of the flames, Kings and Yotes losing in regulation to teams that are of no consequence to the Oilers in the standings.
The flames are of no consequence themselves except its always good to see then lose hit what should be rock bottom like they did today. The negative it it likely signals the end of re-signing Lindholm, Tanev, Noah H. to overpay contracts that would keep them in mediocrity indefinitely.
Godot put a trade proposal with the Caps to shore things up, interesting idea
I’m not a fan of the all in now thing Holland verbalized last season. It seems to have stunted their vision. Most teams have ‘windows’ which are largely self imposed. Players age out, teams endure. That NHL teams won’t trade to revitalize their rosters is their self imposed window. Most other sports don’t do this; in fact they do the opposite
The only other team with a generational player is Pittsburgh. They should have traded Malkin years ago, and they wouldn’t be twisting in the wind now. Maybe Letang as well
You don’t trade generational players, you trade the guys whose value is higher than it would have been because of the generational player. Teams without such players are less likely to be able to win cups, and certainly less likely to repeat
For the Oilers the idea of making short term decisions to win a cup is wrong. No team can win multiple close cups anymore, maybe the odd 2 like Tampa, but teams with a player like Connor should be planning so that they can be serious contenders for the heart of that player’s career. That’s your 3,4,5 like the Pens and Hawks
Holland said he wants another cup, in not so many words. The decisions have been to win last year (oops!) and now this year (just about oops). Wanting to keep the roster together for continuity, instead of making deals that could be absorbed now and also build the future (Bouch long term). Not using youth or even really developing them
It’s really short sighted. I’m not sure of course who is calling the shots, but this strategy is wrong. The next GM isn’t left with a nice set up, like Kenny’s adopted son in Detroit walked into, lots of picks and contracts cleared
Next guy faces Brown’s bonus eating the bulk of the cap increase. Staring down resigning Connor Leon and Bouch, with Nurse’s extra 1-1.25M from what he wanted in salary for years, and Campbell. This is as uncreative, vision lacking, assessment weak, risk averse, low effort as it could be, from a long time and highest paid GM
I think Connor and Knobby can still do it this year, but not from a boost from management over last season. That at the end of the Holland era and well, well into Connor’s career, we’re still trying to be the league’s dominant team, or a consistently dominant team, is frankly disappointing, even if we hey are a really good team. Despite of the management
It was just sitting there to take, for people with the skills
I don’t post much, but I think the idea that all GMs have a mix of wins and losses gets forgotten. On balance, Holland has made this better team than the one he inherited. Your logic re Malkin underestimates the player imo and might have seen Messier or Jagr traded. As for keeping Letang, man I wish Coffey had been around for a few more years.
I would say Malkin is a generational player, with injuries being the only caveat.
I’m not a Holland apologist but to be fair to him I think you’re attributing ills that preceded him and adding it to the mistakes he has made. The Nurse issue was not all of his making as the previous GMs did not want to spend money / commit to the long term deal till, unluckily for us, Jones ended up with a massive contract that Ken was forced to match. Not sure how much the Brown contract was his decision and he played the rules as well as he could with the limited cap space he had this year. Same issue for Bouch – he didn’t have the cap space to give Bouch a long term deal – also not sure if Bouch was too keen anyway since I think he was always aiming to negotiate a long term deal after a full year as the PP pivot.
The only big mistake I’d attribute fully to Ken is the big contract given to Campbell. He could’ve protected himself better given the risk involved…but hindsight is 50-50.
Holland did not have to match the Seth Jones signing. He could have waited a year to sign Nurse and watch while Nurse regressed from his 16 goals in 56 games season.
LA loses its fifth game in a row, now only five points ahead of the Oilers in the standings.
They are a regression candidate as both team SV% and goals for above expected are cratering compared to the start of the season. Interesting, I thought they had a reputation an exceptionally managed club, stingy, with so much upcoming talent.
Hot goalies hide a multitude of sins
As LT said, the Oilers definitely still have a shot at top 3 in the Pacific. Vegas is in a similar spot to the Kings.
Out of curiosity, what do you mean by goals for above expected, though?
Sorry, but I disagree. Heard it from reliable sources at least a month ago that the top three positions in the Pacific were locked up.
I’ve liked the idea of either Alex Lyon or San Jose’s Kahkonen as goalie targets.
Lyon has been Detroit’s best goalie. Far better then James Reimer. 900k this year and next.
Kahkonen has been outplaying Blackwood and his contract expired end of this year. I thought he looked big in the net in relief against the Oilers.
Neither guy will cost the moon.
What do you think would be ballpark for Lyon?
Steve isn’t trading his best goalie, he has plans
With the Intel coming out that both Ceci and Kulak have been dealing with injuries (Kulak missing multiple skates), not to mention the time of year where “illness pops up often”, the fact that management took the risk of running with 6D on the roster for the last while (while having the cap space for a call up) speaks volumes (to me) that management is very cognizant of cap space and accruing as much as possible. Every dollar matters (and every dollar not spent lowers the bonus overage that will hit next season’s cap).
“Don’t draft goalies in first round because they take too long to develop”
Congrats to Wallstedt for getting to the show
I’ve never bought that or that you shouldn’t use high picks on goalies. The best are the best, if you need one get one
Green Bay going to Dallas next week.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams going to Detroit.
Rams and Packers are both dangerous in the NFC.
I don’t endorse this. I am just putting it out there. If the Capitals decide that the Ovechkin era is over, they might consider it.
Jack Campbell, Phillip Broberg, Dylan Holloway for Nick Dowd, Joel Edmundson, and Charlie LIndgren
Variation:
Broberg for Dowd, LIndgren, and Edmundson (50% retained).
The RS centre, the backup goaltender (both with modest contracts for next year) and a veteran Broberg replacement on an expiring contract.
Is Edmundson for depth? Pretty meh
Yes, it would be great to add a legit top 6 winger or to find a “Ceci-upgrade” but, truth be told, well, at least to me, there are two current areas on the team that need to be improved up for a playoff run:
1) Bottom 6 center. Of course, Ryan McLeod likely shifts back to 3C at some point (mainly Holloway/Kane dependent) but, right now, they are running Derek Ryan and James Hamblin at 3C/4C whereas these players should be slotted at 4RW/3RW (Ryan) and 13th forward (Hamblin). They need a bottom six that is a bit harder to play against and, frankly, bigger.
2) 2G and this one needs to happen likely in the next month or so. No offence to Calvin Pickard who has done a fine job in a true back up/spot start role, but when the schedule gets busier, they need a true 1B than can play apx 35%-40% of the games and against some better teams. Picks is going fine but we have a 12 year pro career that tells us he’s not that guy and his decent play in spot-starts doesn’t change that.
I don’t see the Oilers having the cap or assets to add anything other than these two must haves…..
You’re a guy who consumes a lot of media (albeit Oilers focused); who’s on your radar?
Nick Dowd.
and James Reimer
JR is having a bad season
Jake Evans
Sean Monohan
James Reimer
Thanks.
I think I’d prefer Michael McLeod instead of Monohan, due to boots, but they’re both perimeter players who don’t have the intensity I’d prefer for a playoff addition.
Otherwise, no qualms with your choices.
No defensemen on your radar?
Yes, McLeod would be a nice pick up but I imagine the Devils are looking to keep him and the acquisition cost would be higher give he’ 25 and an RFA (arb rights).
Was really just putting names for the positions I think they need to focus on – wasn’t really thinking about d-man.
Stu has been SOLID lately. He’s made, on the regular, a big 1st period stop or two when games have been very much in question. Campbell wasn’t making those stops. This is exactly what any team needs.
Also, has everyone forgotten that Adin Hill won the Stanley Cup as a starter last year? Sure, that Vegas d-corps was a wagon but he was enough against the Oilers when they pushed back hard and those Oilers had last years highest output offence.
I would take Stu over Hill every day of the week. Including game 6.
Skinner has been VERY good and for an extended stretch now. I thought his last two games were two of his best, visually, looked calm and in control throughout, efficient in movement, control rebounds, no swimming, etc.
I did want to nitpick on one thing though. When stating that Campbell wasn’t making those saves, while that is absolutely correct, at the same time, Skinner wasn’t making those saves for the same team either.
For anyone following Team Canada at the World U-18 Hockey Championships:
Why yes, that is indeed Stonehouse’s younger sister who led Canada to victory today.
Interesting that Canada’s first 3 goals were all shorthanded.
I’ll take Skinner over Talbot everyday.
Flames lose 4-3 to the (injury-depleted) Blackhawks. That’s too bad.
This could be the final straw on Conroy decision making.
Watching the Hawks beat the flames in regulation was something…..
7 forwards out plus Seth Jones.
Oilers best take care of business on Tuesday.
With young tweener LD Isaak Phillips starting as the 3C apparently. Maybe Holloway in that spot wouldnt be so bad after all by comparison haha
Milhouse
LA squanders a 3-2 3rd period lead to lose in regulation to Washington.
No goals for Ovi….
Milhouse.
McDavid tends to accomplish what he sets his mind to do. Last year Leon was on him about scoring 60 goals.
First game of the year he starts shooting…and shooting….and shooting. Goal started racking up very quickly.
I believe this year the captain and team set their minds on playing defensive hockey, which included a new system. Problem was, they flat out sucked at defensive hockey. That brand of hockey didn’t get them to the NHL and it wasn’t going to get them to Stanley.
From firing it out up the boards in fear they have now moved to what they are good at.
Get possession, take a second, controlled pass up and out. Patience, confidence.
They are better defensively but not stellar, while their offence is exceptional. It is who they are.
oh, back to my point. If and when Connor decides he should be putting up 50 goals this year, the shots will come in bunches and so will the goals.
Oilers lead the league in expected goals for and are 5th in the league in expected goals against. That sort of goes against the narrative that they are not good defensively. They also have the 4th lowest shots against per game in the league.
They mostly play in the other end of the rink
Ceci didn’t practice today. It wasn’t due to the puck to the face but another injury he’s been battling through. He is expected to play Tuesday.
Kulak also didn’t skate due to maintenance and coach mentioned he also took Friday off.
The boys are getting banged up but battling through.
They are going to call up a dman for the trip. I expect that is Broberg and, truth be told, why don’t they give Kulak a game off if he’s that banged up and play Broberg?
Kulak isn’t playing on either special team at all and is the clear 6D minute wise – Vinny played four minutes more last night and only half of that was PK.
I mean is Chicago with 7 forwards plus a Seth Jones out, with Kulak banged up and only playing 13 min per game, not the PERFECT spot to play Broberg?
Very logical, and Broberg has earned it.
Also, the Oilers have a heavy close out schedule to the season. More games closer to playoffs means more bruises and less recovery time.
All the more reason to have a trusted 7d on deck.
Which is why the OIlers should have been loading managing seven D for six spots all season.
Playing six for six when some have nagging injuries when one has Broberg is just plain ridiculous for a team that considers itself contender.
It is never too late to do the right thing.
When a team has to go 15-3 to get in to the second wild card spot, icing the best lineup nightly, not load management, is paramount.
Dowd is a fine target – my choice as well – should not be expensive. Sure we would all love Jenner but can’t see that happening unless CLB takes a deal like Nashville did for Ekholm.
I’m all in on Tanev for Kulak+ at RD
Goal is tough. Don’t like the guys who are available and don’t like the price. Much as I hate to say – we need to wait on Campbell and see if he can play his way back as a backup. There are no illusions of him being a starter – that’s Stu – but if Campbell can come up with a month of solid play in the AHL (yeah I know it’s a big if) then he might be able to at least be a decent backup. Cheapest add.
Kind of the same situation at RW with Brown. You hope he starts to play better and is close to what we expected by the playoffs (all that really matters). Cheapest add.
While Campbell won his last game and Rodrigue lost his last game, at this point, Jack has lost the starting position in the AHL to Rodrigue – there doesn’t seem to be a pth back this season.
Last night post game I only caught some of what Stauffer was saying.
“we’ll the Oilers have a plan in place now” “and it involves Holloway going down to Bakersfield as a center…”
anybody hear or conclude anything from this?
I think the idea is first a conditioning stint. Second a few reps at center might give the coaches & forward lines a couple of additional options.
Holloway playing 3 or 4C is intriguing but hard to imagine resounding success for this far away.
I assumed Holloway was an idea. Best fit kind of discussion. When I heard Bob say they had a plan, it sounded more definitive, as it was in the works and “centered” around Holloway…
Yes, he was schedule to play between Lavoie and Pederson before this weekend’s games were cancelled.
Hyman’s 2nd goal was a wonderful example of what makes him such a great fit with McDavid, in that he was thinking shot as soon as Bouchard’s perfect pass landed on his stick.
Too many guys — understandably so — are looking for McDavid first, second, and third. Not Hyman. He has the confidence to take his shot, and also rag the puck a bit to allow 97 to find open space.
He has to be amongst the best UFA signings ever, forget just in Edmonton.
I wish McDavid would start looking to shoot more at 5v5 … he had two 2-on-1’s last game and both times was looking pas the whole way. His shot rate is way down this year.
I like what Hyman said about having the confidence to play his game and not defer to his more talented linemates. That is what makes him the perfect partner for McDavid.
This so true most wingers Connor has played with excluding Drai couldn’t get the puck to Connor fast enough in the oppositions end. Hyman is different he continues to play to his strength which is drive to the net with the biscuit and at times it looks like he’s a puck hog but the effectiveness at causing chaos says otherwise.
I was actually thinking whoever told Hyman to stop doing giant swooping circles with the puck, drive to the net, allow McDavid, Drai, and Nuge more puck possession, will result in far more success. Whoever this person is, is simply amazing.
Bouchard is getting more expensive by the game. Love his game, hate what it will do to our cap.
They’ve desperately needed that stellar RHD for a decade. Now they’re grew one from a seedling in a pot. I’d love to run the numbers someday but I’d bet that dollars spent on late RFA years find more value than dollars spent on UFA dmen.
This is a great problem to have and he plays on a team that suits his style. He’s not a Larry Murphy playing for the Leafs. He’s Larry Murphy playing for the Red Wings. Imagine if he’d been drafted by Minni or Calgree…
Having a legit top 5 d-man in the league, all around, will be expensive!
Didn’t have to be this way. Holland is not a strategist. I don’t think many top teams would have bridged given the risk cap risk and long term implications for the roster depth
An offensive D is always tradeable if it came to that. Holland chose expensive depth over getting a core player locked in for a few M less long term. You know, what they did with Leon
You moved Foegele and Kulak, sign Bouch, figure it out. Now they will have one less good player on the roster. It was completely doable
I guess it didn’t “have to be this way but facts are that any longer term contract for Bouchard signed this off-season would have lessened cap space for the rest of the team this season and weakened the roster – materially – end stop.
Yes, of course, the lack of cap space is on Holland, mainly one contract, the Campbell contract is really the only killer contract on the books currently.
Most top teams are tight against the cap and are forced to bridge their material RFAs.
Its not correct to make a blanket statement that top teams find a way. The lauded Avs management group bridged Byram, the Rangers bridged Lafrenière, the Bruins bridged Swayman, the Jets bridged Vilaridi, etc.
I agree with you that the long term contract for Bouch was not a feasible option given the available cap and the other needs of the team. Also, how eager was Bouch to sign off on a LTD when he had just a quarter of the season on the PP and would’ve been fairly confident of being at least a 55-60 point D this season?
The other thing that we don’t consider is what would’ve transpired in Oilerland if Bouch on signing a massive 8 year deal had a bad season (remember the early games in the begining of the season where making a highlight reel error was par for the course?).
It is always easy to be an armchair manager making decisions in hindsight.
Everyone is going to bridge young players when they are in a long-term unexpected flat cap environment.
You mean Nurse?
Leon signed his $8.5MM deal as his second contract.
They bridged Darnell, twice, when it was clear he was worth a long term investment. I don’t blame Old Dutch so much for that, but ChiaPete choosing to re-up Koskinen for an astronomical AAV for term instead of Darnell for max term at something around $5.5MM/year was abominable decision making. Burger Bob should have been fired for that, too, considering he approved that deal just before cutting Petey loose.
I do wonder if Hyman’s work ethic comes in part from the fact that his dad bought multiple hockey teams in Toronto to advance his kids’ hockey careers. He must have been constantly trash talked by opponents that he was only there because his dad bought the team. Working harder than anyone else to prove that he deserves to be on the team is one way to respond to such taunts.
I’ve wondered the same about Tullio (whose dad did something similar).
This purchasing of minor teams is insane. Can’t believe this is still going on since Westhead brought it to light. And hockey canada is more worried about kids showering together.
One 7 game win streak was in fact coming right up.
I’m not sure when we can start trusting this team but they are doing their darnedest to earn our trust after digging a hole.
The Oilers have been the better team at 5×5 (by Expected Goals via Natural Stat Trick) for 18 of the last 19 games they’ve played. The only exception was a loss against Florida. This the is the most consistent stretch I can ever remember for the Oilers.
Then when you consider the powerplay is dynamite, this team has been a true legitimate powerhouse lately and it’s shown up in the win column.
Bouchard had the hand in the win what a coming out party and Z hyman what more can you say?
Just finished reading Leavins’ 9 Things article, a must-read IMO for every Oilers fan, (as of course is everything LT has ever written).
He speaks of the need to find this years’ version of Bjugstad. But is that player even there? Bjugstad was decent in the regular season, but he appeared to be often in over his head in the postseason, especially vs Vegas.
So who is this player to whom he, and LT and others are speaking of? I would love to see what player others on this site have identified as THE TDL target to push the Oilers over the top come April/May..
Dylan Holloway.
Kane and Holloway will be a bundle for the other teams bottom six to handle, and a stylistic change-up that will make the top two lines more successful.
Blue sky?
Tarasenko, Drysdale, Blackwood.
oof, I’d much rather have this years’ version of Barbashev or Lehkonen
Is Pickard good enough to carry water I don’t know, goalies available aren’t spectacular for the cost.
I would take a flyer on Monahan and Armia for bottom 6 additions.
The sky shot would be Konecny for me. Get guys that force people down so you improve 2 areas. Boone Jenner is there as well. Michael Mcleod would also be a strong pickup.
All those guys would cost a fortune, but this team looks to be 1 or 2 additions away from Juggernaut.
The D is playing so well it’s hard to think of spending big assets.to improve but if there were a spot it’s Ceci, who know who tho, essentially a right handed Ekholm would be great hahaha.
Boone Jenner is the perfect player imo. Now, the cost is likely ridiculous. Would a similar package to the Ekholm even get it done? 1st, Holloway, kulak
Third line centre, ideally RH, but more importantly should be good in the dot and a capable PKer, be able to skate and be strong enough to lean on the best centres in the league. Tenacious forechecker who can keep the momentum going when the 1st and 2nd lines are on the bench. And that player has to have a low enough cap hit to make a deal work with our current salary structure.
Bjugstad was identified early and often around these parts last year as an ideal acquisition.
Looking at the bottom teams in the league:
Boone Jenner fits the bill but would CBJ part with him?
Sean Monahan has resurrected his career, and the Habs will likely move him at the deadline.
Adam Henrique’s cap hit would be a barrier, even with retention.
Looking at the bubble teams, these players stand out:
Alexander Wennberg – maybe in a package deal that includes a certain RH Swedish defenseman ;-p
Nick Bjugstad – he didn’t get the job done last year and has a bigger cap hit now
Jenner or Monahan seem to be the two top options.
Monahan has stayed healthy for once this year. He’s playing in all situations, and is a one of the best face-off men in the league. Not much of a hitter, more of skill player who gets a lot of special teams TOI. Has played a fair bit with noted boat anchor Josh Anderson … he may look much better playing with a hopefully healthy Evander Kane. At 5v5, he’s getting deployed against higher QoC, and weighted significantly more towards defensive zone starts.
Jenner is a bandaid boy too – currently out with a broken jaw. One of the most physical centres in the league, who has always been strong in the dot. Johnny Hockey has been his most common linemate this year and last. Plays against the other team’s best players every night. Has some playoff experience and is a really good pro.
I like both of these options, but Monahan is a much more realistic add if Montreal retains 50%, in terms of cap hit and asset cost.
Any C from a seller that can do a decent job at 3C, preferably a RS
And has good boots. Bjug’s problem was he is slow, and on a team not built to just clog ice, players like that often aren’t that helpful to the Oilers, they can’t recover if things get loose or there are breakdowns
Leavins point was they need more C depth. They really don’t have it. They don’t use Nuge at C regularly. That leaves Connor Leon and McLeod. There isn’t a proper 4C, no offense to Hamblin, but he’s green and small. McLeod is young and prone to disappearing. Leon has times where his line gets fed, though he usually keeps the GS close
If Knobby plays Leon with Connor it’s slim pickins
Having 2 3C’s would enable Knooby to roll 4 in the playoffs, you need it for more than 2 rounds. Just getting a 4C means the coaches are probably limited in deployment
Really it’s just balancing the roster better
My favorite album of 1981. Building dense, often surprisingly danceable music around “found sounds” like an exorcism or a talk radio rant was just brilliant. The Eno/Byrne (and Bowie) nexus of creativity was spectacular (“King’s Lead Hat” = Talking Heads).
After Game 18 the Oilers were 10 pts out of the Wild Card at US Thanksgiving and written off for dead.
After Game 36 the Oilers hold a Wild Card spot. 18 games to dig the hole and 18 to climb out.
Poll: By Game 54 will the Oilers reach a Pacific Division spot?
+ for yes.
– for no.
i bet marbles on it ! 🙂
After starting the year 5-12-1 the Oilers put themselves in a position where they had zero margin of error. In the last 18 they have basically done just that (maybe 5% error factoring in the Fla game).
It’s a good thing Action-Jackson didn’t daydream his days away and pulled the trigger before the season and possibly much longer was lost. Maggie the Monkey could see that the bizarre defensive and breakout system was a tire fire. Kudos to K.K and Coffey for stepping into a hostile situation and righting the ship.
When bringing up the 10 points out at US Thanksgiving, I think its notable that the number of teams 10+ points out on that date that have made the playoffs equals: ZERO.
What the Oilers are doing is remarkable and historic.
It remains baffling how a team that is this good was sooooo bad for a month that the hole they dug was so large.
What the Oilers have done already is impressive to be sure, but I’m questioning whether no team has ever made the playoffs after being 10 points out on American Thanksgiving. Where is that info from?
I’m not going to look through history, but I do recall the Blues winning the Cup in 2019 after being tied for last overall on Jan. 1st that year. They were only 6 points out on Thanksgiving day 2018, but were 11 points out on New Year’s day 2019. Definitely a bigger/later hole than the Oilers this Thanksgiving day.
I guess it’s also pretty difficult to be 10 points out by Thanksgiving, but it is a bit hard to believe no one has ever come from 10 points back after 18 or 20 games.
I can’t recall exactly where I read/heard the stat at the time but it was a reputable source.
Yes, I’m sure there was more than a couple teams that fell further later (Blues being an example) but, as far as being out in US TG, I think its legit.
OK, fair enough.
I think he is starting to be mis-cast as a poor defensive player as, to my eye, while of course still prone to the odd “highly visible mistake”, his defensive or 2-way game is generally quite solid and, in fact, he is very good in a couple of areas (defending the rush and zone entries in particular – he does a great job stepping up when he has forward supports and has a great stick).
Evan Bouchard was integral in 2 goals last night but I have read and heard (on the post-games) just as much talk about his play on the goal against.
It seems every time Bouch is on the ice for a goal against, many are looking for ways to provide culpability and fault. Yes, of course, often there is fault and culpability but, of course, ALL d-men make mistakes every game and, more the the point, the culpability is usually shared amongst more than one.
That goal last night was a good example. If you take a look, its Mattias Ekholm that gets beat clean by Tkachuk coming out of the corner and then is not able to contain him going towards the net.
Bouch shoulder checks as Tkachuk barrels towards the net and I think his main concern is ensuring no pass across gets through for a back door tap in. Yes, it looks like “he’s just standing there” but I think he was caught between staying in the danger zone/net front to ensure not cross-seam and supporting Ekholm who got beat.
Bouch was partially culpable on that goal but so was Ekholm (and maybe even moreso) but he made such a greater positive impact on this game.
What. A. Player.
That old saw about needing 10 positive comments to offset one negative comment really seems to be the case with Bouchard.
It’s like I tell my daughter, who usually plays center back in soccer – nobody wants to play D. A forward can take 20 shots and score one goal and feel great about themselves, whilst a defender can make 99 great plays and 1 mistake and all anyone remembers is the single mistake.
Ekholm and Bouchard are playing at league-elite levels right now.
No, the criticism of his play at the start of the season was valid. He was making absolutely bone headed decisions out there at the time. He needed to improve his pace and battle. He did, and the results are a match to his talent level.
The same could be said for the whole team, and I think the effect of coaching can’t be discounted either. Not just Bouchard, but all of the defensemen look vastly improved under Coffey, which was highlighted by The HNIC panel last night.
Great analogy
When the Oilers are not defending as much and/or the Oiler forwards are backtracking diligently, Bouchard is exposed less often defensively, just like any other defensively challenged offensive defenseman. Bouchard’s best defense is playing in the offensive zone, and forwards committed to a two-way game.
On the GA, all Bouchard had to do was stand his ground and take one stride forward, and Tkachuk had no play. Any cross ice pass would have to get through both Bouchard and Skinner.
On the GA last night … Tkachuk is the size of a fridge; when he decides to go to the net like that it’s best not to be in his path. I’m fine with Bouch (who already got dinged up earlier in the game) deciding not to try to get directly in his path, with 5 minutes to go, in a game in January, against the 2nd worst team in the league, and up by 2 goals. The eventual goal was was a bit of flukey chip over Skinner by Parker Kelly anyways, who was not Bouchard’s responsibility to box out.
Bouch actually laid out Tkachuk with nasty cross check after his drive to the net and was playing a lot more chippy than he usually does.
I think Bouchard is going to be fine … the start of the season was a wake up call for him that you have to compete hard and defend every night in the NHL to be have team success.
One thing I’ve noticed more since KK came on board is how the forwards are coming back much harder into the d-zone. These are the kinds of things that the better teams do to be successful. Think St. Louis in their Stanley Cup run – and Vegas.
Good sign that they are committed to two-way play.
Bouch is ok defensively. The number of D that have his offensive ability and are also great defensively are maybe 2 or 3?
When you have a player like that you build around them. Ek is a good partner. The forwards need to be better is the bigger issue. Knobby said as much. They are not great defending rush attacks, and that is either a pinch gone wrong or a lack of hard backtracking
Simple solution, have Bouch facing less of that. It’s necessary anyway for playoffs, where teams can game plan and keep exploiting weakness
The back checking pressure from the forwards has massively improved, though they are still prone to the odd defensive miscue that leads to wide open chances – fortunately, last night it was Parker Kelley instead of Tim Stutzle getting those open looks.
The coach and the d-man themselves keep talking about how important this is – having the forward support on the back-track allows them to be much more aggressive at the blueline, etc.
This was also something we noted when Woody came in and all the talk about “defending as 5-man units” – its not a new concept but the sustained consistent execution seems new.
I query if their offensive zone structure changes has is part of the reason – they are clearly looking to create offence higher in the offensive zone which means the (or some of the) forwards are higher when the puck turns back the other way.
I was happy with the Hyman signing but thought the contract was just “OK”. I was happy that Holland wasn’t able to trade the 6th rounder (Petrov) for Hyman’s rights to get an 8th year – as I thought the term on the deal was going to be a problem and I didn’t want to extend it even if it means a $150K or so reduction on the cap.
I felt that Hyman would likely be right around value for his cap hit for a couple of years but that, with his style and some injury history (knee) that age-related and injury-related regression would come quite quickly (within a few years) and the cliff could be steep.
Zack was value for his contract his first year but then was a big value-contract last year in what, I presumed, was a career year. I had not reasonable expectation that he would even match last year’s impact, let alone, surpass it but Hyman has been on another level this season. Its not just 25 goals and on pace for 58 but his 2-way play at 5 on 5 has been MUCH more responsible this season. He’s been a plus 2-way player making an impact in all zones.
I think keeping him off the PK is helpful.
Both Tippett and then Woodcroft like to use the top 6 forwards on the PK. KK is using the bottom 6 guys and giving them more of a role in the team’s success. The PK is markedly improved since KK took over and made Stuart in charge of it.
Excellent point
I can even handle Brown on the roster if he continues to PK like he is doing
Holland got lucky. Which is good. The math said it was not a smart signing capwise, and it still might bite term wise. At least one of his risky signings panned out
I am no fan of movement clauses. This is the biggest issue with Hyman’s term. The league should get rid of them or limit them, like they did the silly contract lengths and lopsided pay structures
They did that because it was harming the game and to stop teams that couldn’t help themselves. That it is so hard to move players and that contracts can be crippling reduces the quality of the league overall to me
They should also reduce cap penalties for buyouts. Create more outs where the player gets some pay. Get creative to better the game. Teams don’t try to sign bad contracts, it’s more often players can’t live up to them for whatever reason (not off years but over time), and the team is stuck
I believe in protecting players, but the days of Eagleson and Ballard are long gone, and it seems too far the other way now
Lol LT at the Bouch comment. It’s like Captain Holt on Brooklyn 99 (RIP Andre).
I remember Scott Wheeler looking at Bouchard going back to his draft class and he had some line like “I didn’t take many notes on standout moments, but then I realize at the end of the game that Bouchard had 3 points and his team dominated”.
I really hope Holloway hits the ground running and can either fill the void at 3c or play well enough to slide McLeod back to centre.
The bottom six needs a boost. Gagner will also obviously help.
Yes, Gagner over Erne and, in due course, Holloway over Hamblin, should provide a material boost to the depth and the bottom six.
I do not watch enough of other teams.
I love Bouchard and I am curious how he compares to Hughes and Makar. Bouchard has a significantly worse +/-. Is this attributable to Bouchard being that much worse defensively? Or is it more of a goalie thing? I guess my primary question is: how often do Hughes and Makar take vacations in their own end?
Edit: Makar’s +/- and GF is actually not much better than Boosh.
Makar is a different cut. He sees and plays hockey differently. I wonder about his staying power at his size but that’s it. He’s heads and shoulders above the other two. But right now he’s being tested in a way he never has been in the NHL. He came into the league with his team a force, they aren’t a force anymore. Colorado is very top heavy and unless MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen are generating, nobody is generating. He’s playing for offense and has been leaky 5v5 for the last six weeks. With how hard Bednar is riding him I’m not sure these numbers will get better. Goaltending is part of the story but that roster is fugly after the top five.
The other two are damn good players. As LT notes, we’re talking impact here. Bouch and Hughes play similarly, Hughes, rushes a bit more and at times has trouble breaking cycles. Hughes is small, no way around that he’s a small guy. Hughes is benefitting from how long he’s played with the same dudes. Bouchard is still coming into his role. Bouchard has a better shot and is also a big guy so his defense will round into form over time. He’s not done getting better, not by a long a shot.
There are only two forwards in the league right now averaging over 22 minutes a night. Both are on Colorado. They are riding them hard.
They are at 22:49 and 22:55 per game. Rantanen and McKinnon. Third most IIRC is Stuetzle at 21:45 or so…
There was a drag on Bouchard’s goal share early in the year. He didn’t have ekholm, the goalies weren’t stopping pucks, but Bouchard was also making mistakes that ended up in the back of the net. So, I’d say he was a bit unlucky but also needed to tighten up defensively. He’s done it, with help from Ekholm and his own improved play.
You should look at the after Knobby +/-
For me taking out the start is more informative about the team as it really is
that’s a good question and I haven’t seen enough of them to answer re: defensive play. With the puck Makar and Hughes “look” more dynamic on their skates and move their feet more, but some of that I think is also due to Bouch being much bigger than both of them. Mostly though imo Bouch plays with an economy of movement – and looks as excited as one can be when they open the mailbox and find nothing but flyers.
How long before the Ryan Smyth comparisons start with Hyman? Or have they already? Not a perfect style comparison but fills that same role with the fan base.
I’ve thought it, but haven’t used it. The results are similar, style not so much. Delightful players.
For me they are similar in that they use, or used, every skill they have at 100%. Never a shift off. They have similar heart and dedication. Nose for a hard won goal around the net. But I think Hyman is a better all round hockey player. And Ryan Smyth was a damn fine one.
They old joke: “…and Smyth unleashes a howitzer from the top of the paint…”
If Hyman grows a mullet and starts taking clappers from the ringette line we’re there.
That clapper better be on the ice. A single inch of verticality and we have a problem
Hyman is a better close in scorer than Ryan Smyth ever was. He misses fewer of the great chances. 83 would have made him a 50 goal man just like 97 is likely about to.
On a good team, Smyth was always a 2LW. Hyman’s a first line support winger.
Helps that he’s not using a stick that actively makes him worse, of course.
His around the net prolous definitely compares with Captain Canada. Hyman also has a dash of Craig Simpson hands in him as well this year. Hyman has found the soft spot around the crease, the game has changed the beating Simpson and to a lesser extent Smyth took around the net no longer exists. The biggest fear for Hyman isn’t the defenders but the 95 mile a hour slapshot by Bouchard to the kisser.