2023-24 Game 37: Oilers at Blackhawks

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers recalled Phil Kemp late yesterday afternoon. It’s his first trip to the NHL during a regular season and reward for steady work defending the house over several years. For his career (four seasons) with the Bakersfield Condors, Kemp has been suppressing offence. His even-strength goal share (102-81, 56 percent) over those four years is rock solid. The Condors are 53 percent when Kemp is off the ice during those years at even strength.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
  • Actual January results: 2-0-0, 4 points in 2 games
  • Oilers in 2023-24: 20-15-1, 41 points in 36 games

THE BLUE

Edmonton’s defense is a little banged up these days and that’s news. The top-six has been extremely healthy, leading to Philip Broberg’s demotion a few weeks ago. The top-four blue are all 50 percent or better at five-on-five goal share, and the expected goal shares show the top pairing at an elite level and the whole damn bunch over 50 percent.

  1. Evan Bouchard (64 pct), Mattias Ekholm (63 pct)
  2. Darnell Nurse (53 pct), Cody Ceci (52 pct)
  3. Brett Kulak (58 pct), Vincent Desharnais (57 pct)
  4. Philip Broberg (53 pct)

That’s a fine group of numbers for this edition of the Edmonton Oilers. Let’s compare that to the 2016-17 team:

  • Oscar Klefbom (50 pct), Adam Larsson (51 pct)
  • Andrej Sekera (52 pct), Kris Russell (49 pct)
  • Darnell Nurse (50 pct), Eric Gryba (49 pct)
  • Matt Benning (52 pct)
  • Brandon Davidson (46 pct)

Puck IQ tells us the top two pairings shared the heavy lifting, playing about equal amounts versus elite competition. By the way, if you ever forget who was paired, or lines, from previous seasons, the brilliant folks at dobber have a fantastic tool.

This year’s Oilers are better in expected goals, and that’s partly due to a stronger and deeper group of forwards. In 2016-17, just four regular forwards (Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, Leon Draisaitl and Jordan Eberle) finished above 50 percent in expected goals five-on-five. This season, every regular forward save Connor Brown (49 percent), James Hamblin (49 percent) and Adam Erne (47 percent) are above 50 percent.

The Oilers structure is better, the expected results are better and the personnel are able to repeat performances game after game. Part of that is skill, but experience helps.

The big difference is goaltending. In 2016-17, Cam Talbot had a .929 save percentage at five-on-five. He played 73 games, way too many, but he was money. Backups Laurent Brossoit (.930) and Jonas Gustavsson (.899) offered good and bad support.

This season, Stuart Skinner owns a .912 save percentage at five-on-five. Backups Calvin Pickard (.903) and Jack Campbell (.879) offered good to poor support but save percentages have changed over the years. The breaking news in this area: Splits for Skinner. Before November 24, his SP was .891 and it is .929 since that day.

The Oilers need some help, but credit to the players, management and the new coaching staff for getting this train rolling at an impressive speed. Edmonton is in a position that allows us to talk about the Stanley Cup. That’s no small feat.

At noon today, Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Daniel Nugent-Bowman and discuss his article on William Nylander’s contract and the impact on the upcoming Leon Draisaitl negotiations. Oilers preview, plus NFL and a review of last night’s college football championship game. Plus, much verbal on Phil Kemp. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.

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coops

MacT said – teams on a losing streak should win the last game of the streak. Teams on a winning streak should lose the last game of the streak. Something like this.

€√¥£€^$

What a frustrating win, lol.

Our team did not have a shot after Hamblin great chance. That was at 13:57.

Whoof! Flush & forget,

Skinner now above 0.900.

Last edited 9 months ago by €√¥£€^$
Lewis Grant

Remember when we used to console ourselves with moral victories?

I’m much happier now that we can be disconsolate with moral losses.

Last edited 9 months ago by Lewis Grant
Mayan Oil

My theory is they not only tried the Coffee technique of wearing skates two sizes too small, they did one better and put them on the wrong feet …

dustrock

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/status/1744940963372614019?t=NUuMjBUHgQfmEeHqUDzgqA

Gotta say McDavid with maybe the best analysis of reffing and video replay I’ve seen in any professional sport from an athlete. Incredible.

“You zoom in and zoom in and zoom in and if it takes you 15 minutes to determine offside what’s the point?” sums up everything wrong with video replay in NHL, soccer, NFL, you name it.

Off the cuff too! McDavid might have a future in politics.

Side

Didn’t catch any of the game, but saw the score. And then I saw the Oilers only had 15 shots and that was all I needed to know about how the game went against the Chicago BlackhAHLks.

But a win’s a win!

hunter1909

Excellent if not outstanding win over the Black Hawks.

Good teams win even when they play poorly. Oilers haven’t much had that luxury over the Decades of Darkness.

Oilers are now 18-6 under the new coaching regime.

Pro Rated = 123 points over an 82 game season.

AsiaOil

Kulak+ for Tanev is the play as CGY only has one LHD signed for next year. They just need to drop out of legit playoff contention to move him. If acquired – I’d also like to keep Tanev at a lower price point (Kulak salary) next season if possible. Playing Kemp in MTL is sensible as it gives him a few days to work with the team. Not convinced Vinnie is signable at a salary commensurate with his skills. Someone will over-pay. If that’s the case then swapping Kulak and Vinnie for Broberg and Tanev (probably seperate deals) at the deadline makes sense.

Scungilli Slushy

Can you get two RD and send Ceci along as well please? Maybe the Leafs need him

kgo

Tonight’s game reminded me of a chess match where the Blackhawks started without a Queen…edmonton squandered their advantage, were far to aggressive, too casual, too risky. They could have just sat back, played an opportunistic game and traded material until the Hawks had only a pawn or two…

These Oily boys need a chess board in their dressing room.

TheGreatBigMac

Na I think we’ve seen enough moving pieces on the chessboard. They can’t all be Rembrandts. Hopefully they’ll make some adjustments before the next game.

kgo

You obviously don’t understand chess at a high enough level to get the analogy….

It goes further…when you have your opponent at a material disadvantage and they’re up against a ticking clock…you play rope-a-dope until the clock kills them.

The oilers made 50+ stupid pass attempts that they shouldn’t have tonight…they attempted to play a stretched out high tempo game which was the exact opposite strategy that they should have employed.

Granted, they knew they had a massive margin for error and it didn’t much matter how bad their strategy was, they were very likely to win…it felt like a pre-season game with a bit of added desperation.

hunter1909

I was yelling at the screen to never have that rotten useless number 18 on the ice ever again in a no goalie situation.

Only then I realised it was Hyman lol

KnightRain

Feels weird to be this frustrated after a win…I guess it’s true…if your an Oilers fan you can never be completely happy…bet we’ll even find something to complain about when we win Stanley this year…

Dee Dee

Should have won MORE cups!

OriginalPouzar

Skinner with a .901 save percentage on the season.

fishman

Good for him!!

KnightRain

They say “don’t critique a win” but, holy mackerel, that was terrible.
Flush it. Burn the tape. Never speak of it.
On to the next.
The coaching staff have their work cut out for them, now.
We’ve gotten worse each of the last three games. They need to figure out how to nip this in the bud.
Do they still do bag skates? Corner battle drills?

Munny 2.0

Can you buy Oiler insurance for fancy glasses?

KnightRain

Dunno. Might be covered under house insurance…lol

Munny 2.0

“It was an Act of Gord, I swear.”

Admiral Ackbar

How many has Hyman had called back this year? Is that stat kept anywhere?

Crazy Pedestrian

Just noticed that Seattle is also on a 7-game winning streak. Currently tied with Oilers in points (although Oilers have 3 games in hand)
Those *9* OT losses sure kept them in relevance.

Lewis Grant

Regulation wins is really the best way to measure a team’s playoff-readiness.

Oilers are tied with LA, and ahead of Vegas and Dallas. Oilers are 4th in the West (and would be 4th in the East), which is pretty darn good. Kraken are 12th in the West. But Canucks and Jets are full value for their many wins.

Leafs have 8 wins in OT/SO and Habs have 9. Their carnival time success will not hold up in the long run.

Admiral Ackbar

They say at the end of the streak you win games you shouldn’t have. This could qualify as one of those.

Yikes. They sure went to sleep for this one after the 1st.

Sanderson

Maybe this one is so bad that it counts as a loss in their heads?

Ice Sage

Tonight’s game smells like an ‘end of a winning streak’ victory – just
running on fumes

Diablo

I was thinking the same thing throughout the third period. Could also be due to having too much time off between games, together with having very little interest in engaging physically against an AHL caliber team.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Glad I am not a Hawks fan. Imagine losing to that Oiler effort, ha!

Crazy Pedestrian

I faintly remember an Oilers-Ducks game where the winning team had only 11 or 12 shots… can’t remember which team won though.

Munny 2.0

I think we’ll see KK make a line-up change next game. He can’t allow this effort to go unpunished and that’s the biggest and best stick he has.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Also, why dress players you only play for 5-6 minutes a night?

Munny 2.0

How does the guy who played 6:25 get four times the number of hits of the next best player? Ie Erne

I’m not sure KK has a solution for replacing Hamblin who played the least. But keep in mind, the reason he wasn’t on the ice more is because the other three lines put the game at risk for the entirety of the 60 minutes. Just another consequence of the ridiculous effort tonight.

I love Janmark, but this is a few games in a row he’s lost multiple battles. He’s the guy I’d sit.

OriginalPouzar

Oilers PK was the best part of their game.

Munny 2.0

No, Skinner was. Oilers PK gave up a gazillion shots tonight. They have options other than Janmark for the PK. A coach can’t let that role affect accountability. Now, I’m okay with any of the bottom 6 coming out, but personally I’d sit Janmark.

OriginalPouzar

Janmark played the second most of the forwards on the PK (2 second behind Brown) and had the “best results” in the small sample – and that’s with playing against PP1.

There is no sane world where, in my opinion, where Adam Erne (or James Hamblin) plays over Janmark –

Munny 2.0

Wow. I hope the coach doesn’t end up proving you’re living in an insane world. What a hill to pick for your rationality to die on… I couldn’t be that extreme. Let’s cross our fingers and hope for Erne then.

OriginalPouzar

I mean, wanting to keep Erne in an NHL lineup can also be quite the insane world of thought.

OriginalPouzar

2 points in regulation, take em, move on to Thursday!

Reja

8 wins in a row 6 of them on the road no easy task in today’s N.H.L

fishman

Ha ha have never seen so many upset posters after a win!! Actually that might have been the ugliest win I have ever seen! But two points is good….

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Whoa whoa whoa. We are Oilers fans. We are upset by almost everything.

OriginalPouzar

and the 8th win in a row and 16th in the last 19 games…..

Shitty teams beat elite teams multiple times through every season.

There is a reason.

That was awful.

They got a regulation win.

They’ll be better on Thursday.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Or they will be worse. They were shit last game. They were really shit tonight.

Durag

Patrick Stefan thinks the Oilers should have scored there 

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Nice.

Sanderson

Ray Ferraro thinks the Oilers should be embarrassed, that does not belong in the National Hockey League.

Chief Inspector

I must really congratulate you

Lewis Grant

Great way to celebrate the anniversary.

Diablo

Even good teams put up a stinker from time to time. Good thing it was against the Hawks with Bedard.

Boil-in-the-Oil

er … without Bedard.

Diablo

yes – without. My spelling is as sloppy as the Oilers play tonight.

OriginalPouzar

and almost assuredly due to that.

Ice Sage

Yuck. I need a shower and a steel brush.
Glad they didn’t play Pickard.

Benign Bone

What an atrocious and ridiculous night. Not thinking or trying & all puck luck going to CHI… and yet they won. Can’t believe I woke up at 2:30am to watch that 🙂

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

On a positive note, Skinner’s sv% continues to trend up, up, up!

Munny 2.0

Can’t believe they risked a loss to the Rockford Ice Hogs. Maturity remains elusive. I had hoped this game would be the step forward. Maybe next time. Or maybe next time it costs them. We wait. Yet again.

Mayan Oil

Ice Hogs, ha! Love it. My two favourite team names ( both defunct) were the Macon Whoopie and the Vegas Ice Frogs – I would sell body parts to get their jerseys, and I’ve looked…

Last edited 9 months ago by Mayan Oil
Lewis Grant
jp

Well.. Uh… Stuart Skinner is one Oiler who did truly have a strong game.

Beyond that… well, it is their 8th win in a row as ugly as it was.

And now 4 points back of the Kings with even games. Oof that was ugly though.

Munny 2.0

I don’t know how Stu didn’t get a star.

Mesmer

Even the person picking the stars phoned it in.

LMHF#1

And they don’t even give Skinner a star…wow.

Still think they don’t even watch the games anymore.

Ice Sage

Just like every official tonight!

theDjdj

Well luckily they dont record descriptions in the win column.

Absolutely not the Oilers night. Should have been 4 – 1 though. Refereeing was poor.

GB&Q

A couple of extra coats of lipstick on that pig. But a win is a win!

Diablo

The Hawks showed a lot of heart tonight.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

This is incredible. Hyman with three goals called back hahaha.

rich tm

For anyone who wants to know, this is a game that Skinner stole.

bsmart

That was the ugliest win ever!!!! Nice job Stu, everyone else, shame!!!

delooper

Oilers tried pretty hard to make this game competitive.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Hyman will never score again lol.

fishman

We are the bad news bears trying to score an empty net goal! Holy that was ghastly. Thank god Skinner showed up.

MushedPeas

what a gong show.

Tarkus

Unclench.

Crazy Pedestrian

REALLY?!
THE. MOST. REDICULOUS. WIN. EVER.

Last edited 9 months ago by Crazy Pedestrian
LMHF#1

I’m gonna go throw up.

That was disgusting.

rich tm

Inept offensive effort tonight.

MushedPeas

what was that pass Nurse

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

My theory: the Oilers did some late night team building in Chicago.

LMHF#1

Did they all catch the stomach flu or something?

Serious question. It’s one of the only decent explanations for THIS.

Ice Sage

yeah, there’s definitely a whole-team malaise

Crazy Pedestrian

Hawks could have pulled the goalie for the last 10 minutes….

Munny 2.0

the rare Bouchard Ceci pairing

Munny 2.0

Boosh finally gets off for Nurse

OriginalPouzar

What is with this Bouchard/Ceci pairing????

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Line change.

Zelepukin

Maybe this some kind of cruel self-imposed challenge where the team has collectively decided to try and win this game with the least amount of effort possible?

Sanderson

Giving Skinner some practice holding a one goal lead?

Ice Sage

“yeah, let’s let’s get 15 shots and win’

GB&Q

Was everyone shooting with their wrong hand?

Mayan Oil

Skinner is doing well in trying circumstances. Very sloppy in front of him tonight. Two days off since last game and three days off before the game before that iirc. Is this a contributing factor to why we can’t sustain any rhythm in our game for past two games?

Crazy Pedestrian

This is a dreadful game… they might still win this but… woof.

fishman

Please Skinner spare us from OT!!!!