Earlier this season, Stuart Skinner was not a popular player among Oilers fans. His struggles in front of the Edmonton Oilers early were part of a ghastly start. Credit to the young man (who was a Calder Trophy finalist as a rookie in 2022-23), he is now playing some of the best hockey of his young career.
Last night in Chicago, the Oilers were not sharp. Skinner saved the day. We often hear people say “when was the last time an Oilers goalie stole a game” and I’d suggest the answer is last night. The Blackhawks aren’t a talented team, but they worked hard and the Oilers were not effective. In his last 15 games, Skinner has posted a .929 save percentage in all game states, .930 at five-on five. I don’t hear or see a lot of love for his performances lately, but do believe his last six weeks have been key to Edmonton’s success.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Could this be the ultimate Edmonton Oilers season?
- DNB: Projecting the Oilers’ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension
- Lowetide: Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers complete 2023-24 prospects update
- Lowetide: Why NHL’s goalie trade market a strange brew for Oilers
- Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: Evander Kane’s concerning season and what it means to the Oilers.
- Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 3-0-0, 6 points in 3 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 21-15-1, 43 points in 37 games
The Oilers aren’t going to continue this winning streak based on their play in the last two games, but there’s always a chance they’ve scared themselves straight. Surely Zach Hyman’s next three goals won’t be called back and the McDavid line didn’t have a fab night. Edmonton has reeled in both Los Angeles and Vegas since Kris Knoblauch took over, so the Pacific Division’s 2-3 spots are in play, but Van City is out of sight.
THE NUMBERS
The first thing we need to talk about today is that old line about winning games at the end of a good streak that you probably shouldn’t win. I think the last two games have had elements of it, and last night screamed ‘comfortable players not respecting the plan.’ The Oilers are in a playoff spot, but could push to second or third in the division.
I think it’s a good test for the coaching staff and players. Bad habits are re-entering the Oilers game, as sure as Darnell Nurse’s snow angel on the ‘Hawks goal last night. I think a loss happens on this road trip. Human nature.
I’m so pleased with the McDavid line. In 216 five-on-five minutes this season, the trio own a 21-9 (70 percent) goal share. The line is averaging 5.81 goals-per-60. That’s a goal every 10 minutes, almost a goal per game. Music!! If you added in Zach Hyman’s disallowed goals last night, the three men are a G-A-G line.
The 1970-71 Boston Bruins No. 1 (Phil Esposito between Wayne Cashman and Ken Hodge) scored 106 even-strength goals in 78 games (1.36 goals per game). The McDavid trio has 36 goals in 37 games. It’ll be fun to track over the rest of the season.
Also thrilling is the Leon Draisaitl Railroad Line, led by engine engine 29. My goodness it’s fun to see Ryan McLeod having offensive success. Warren Foegele is half Chuck Lefley-half Kent Manderville but he’s a damn fun player to watch. The group has played just 78 minutes together at five-on-five, but own a 77 percent (10-3) goal share! Beautiful music!!
McDavid (3.12 pts-60 five-on-five), Hyman (2.95) and Nuge (2.14) hammer opponents for 55 seconds, and are followed by Draisaitl (2.43), Foegele (2.58) and McLeod (1.77).
If the coaching staff could find the world’s most responsible center (who is also fast) to run between Sam Gagner (2.73) and Evander Kane (1.72), well I’d a like to die.
I want to talk about the defense a little. The pairing of Mattias Ekholm (what a pass to McDavid for the game winner) and Evan Bouchard is surrendering so little at five-on-five it’s borderline comical. Ekholm is allowing 23.1 SA-60, Bouchard 23.3 SA-60. Among NHL regulars, Ekholm is second and Bouchard third so far this season. I can hear Theresa Brewer singing right now! Music, Music, Music!!!
I talked about Stuart Skinner above, so won’t ramble on again. His .913 five-on-five save percentage for the season is No. 17 among regulars. In the last 15 games, his .930 save percentage at five-on-five is No. 7 overall. I defended him early in the season because the long resume was good. Small sample sizes are difficult to turn away from while also being small sample sizes. Remember this!
Why? Because, next summer a convincing voice will hammer away about defensive structure and or why Ryan McLeod over Nick Bjugstad and use a small sample size to make the point. There was a time when math folks would add a small line about “this is a small sample, but….” and there are a rare few who still do (Darcy McLeod, Sunil Agnihotri) but the majority of analytics voices have become something close to bible thumpers who have concocted their own religious beliefs and trumpet it with fantastic zeal.
Read Puck IQ. The truth shall make you free.
A busy day on Sports 1440, the Lowdown begins at noon and runs for two highly verbal hours. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us, and we’ll dig deeper into this Cutter Gauthier story because I believe there’s a lesson here for all of us. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Vegas now in utter freefall. Gonna need to right the ship quick, near time schedule is packed with Bubble Teams and the Cream of the East.
Not counting chickens but if our gents stay focused there is no reason that come our clash on Feb 6 we aren’t clear and free of them.
They are, but they also have several out with injuries (Carrier, Amadio) and played their AHL goalie last night (injury/illness).
Opportunity to continue to make up ground for sure. Oilers are 8 points back with 4 games in hand.
Vegas has been a < .500 hockey club since Nov. 5…
Adin Hill may or may not be a Vezina in waiting on the IR but it looks a bit more like Vegas has a Cup hangover. Scan through their game logs and you’ll see wild inconsistency after Eichel when it comes to scoring.
Central Teams alongside Seattle will have a chance to pick off one of Vegas or L.A. for a playoff spot I reckon.
L.A. is also in the thick of their meanest travel chunk to date.
Tonight the Cats in Miami, then up to Detroit for a fight on Saturday, over to Raleigh for a Monday night dance and then an overnighter to Dallas for a Tuesday throw down and finally back home for the Preds and Rags next Thursday and Saturday.
Hope everyone has their frequent flyer miles lined up for that one.
A fight, a dance, and a throw down.
Tuesday night in Elk Point.
I am concerned about to soon to be more barren prospect cupboards, so I checked in on a couple of NHL Prospects I’ve had my eye on in the past.
The Oilers are at 45 contracts and if I were Kenny, I’d sign 5’9” RHD Zach Metsa, who is in Rochester, like tomorrow. IMO he is a stockier Jared Spurgeon. His numbers look really good vs the seasoned AHL vets on that team. He would be a very useful player in this organization and would bring some offense.
I would also snag big, RHC Ben King who plays in San Diego. His numbers stack up well compared to his similarly-aged, but more highly touted peers on that team. He was also a teammate of Grubbe in Red Deer, just as Metsa was a teammate of DeJong with NCAA Champ Quinnipac.
VGS in COL tonight. Then fly home and play BOS tomorrow.
2 losses? Maybe …?
2-0 Nichuskin nearing the end of the 2nd.
All Avs right now.
3-0 – Nichuskin didn’t score but caused the turnover.
WALLSTEDT rockin’ .794 Sv% in debut
Over the last two years in the AHL, Wallstedt has a .911 Sv% while Rodrigue has a .915. Rodrigue is older, but he very well might be as good or better.
The close to two year age difference is a material factor, if we are being honest.
Just watched the re-cap….
8 goals if you count the off-side goal, clean shot beat him 5-hole.
6 of the 7 that counted were clean shots, no screens or tips…
3 of them beat him mid or high blocker…something weird with his blocker placement…
He seemed frozen in place on most goals…100% positional goalie, no actual reaction (mike Smith was 0% positional)
He looks like shit honestly, glad we didn’t pick him.
Lots of talk about Wallstedt given his call-up and he’s given up 6 goals on 31 shots in his first appearance (3 minutes left).
The Oilers are also able to call up prospects such as Bourgault before they are ready just like the Wild…….
That can’t be right. Wallstedt is the greatest goalie to ever play the game.
Make it 7 goals on 34 shots.
Summarizing!
Nathan won the Day, stopping 23 of 26 in a 5-3 victory. He will fill his belly with delicious soup tonight.
Prospecting takes a break until Friday.
I still want to know why the Hawks are able to terminate a $4MM cap hit and not have to deal with any settlement with financial and cap implications (i.e. Richard, Kane, etc.).
What he did was bad enough for termination with cause but then he’s eligible to play a month later?
Edm should terminate Jack Campbell for unpredictable goalie conduct!
This has been happening forever with certain teams. Lou in NJ got away with murder, ‘Hawks have been getting all kinds of leeway for some time now.
Itchy equipmemt rash.
Random long term injury
Etc
Etc
He’s got the Yips.
Terminate !!
It doesn’t make sense to me that other teams aren’t up in arm unless they’ve been provided with the details and there is some legitimacy to this but something doesn’t add up.
I think you’re looking at this logically. Remember, this is the NHL we’re talking about here.
I can’t answer that but the issue may not be fully resolved yet
Lebrun has a piece up at the Athletic that says the NHLPA has until Jan 29 to file a grievance (and attempt to recoup lost wages)
We wait
This is true (and I knew that but had forgotten -thank you for reminding).
Something has to come down here – it wasn’t bad enough that he is even prohibited from playing in the league for any portion of the current season but yet, as of now, Hawks are out of a contract for some sort of cause without ramifications.
This is some sort of precedent if nothing else goes down.
Either way, gurantee Kenny is on the phone to Perry’s agent already
I’m just grateful we were gifted McDavid this trumps all.
What does that have to do with the subject of terminating contracts?
Either way, somehow it’ll cost us a 3rd rounder…
Most of Perry’s salary was signing bonus. From his perspective, there was really not that much actual money left on the table. The lawyers would end up with most of it if he chose to litigate.
Nope – he actually owes the Hawks much of that signing bonus back
https://theathletic.com/5104235/2023/12/01/corey-perry-contract-termination-explained/
So does Leon sign a new deal this summer? If so, how much? 14mil? He can’t make less than Matthews. If he won’t sign, who do you deal him to and for what players in return?
Most likely he does, yes.
Comparables are Matthews and MacKinnon so likely in the $13.5MM range – my hope is 6 years.
I’m not convinced he will. Mike Liut is his agent and will drive the price to the limit. In order to do this, he might want his client to reach actual free agency. Leon would be extremely attractive as a UFA.
I guess the question is what does Leon want?
The theory is that if he won’t sign, Edmonton is basically forced to trade him. I’m not always sure that players get this though: see Ryan Smyth.
That was a poor trade by the Oilers that bit them for years…..
LT- There is no way that Leon is allowed to get to free agency by the Oilers. I believe it absolutely vital that if he and Connor do not stay that they are traded for the best possible return. If the Jets received the return the got for a vastly overrated, overpaid Dubois, the Oilers should be able to get quality and quantity back in the form of the present and future of the club.
Actually since it’s Oilers who are trading away the very best players there is no way they win in any of these deals. Instead they instantly revert to another generation of darkness; as a Canadian team that no one wants to play for.
Is that what anyone wants?
We simply cannot allow Leon to reach free agency. If he refuses to sign, he needs to be traded.
I’m pretty confident Leo cares enough about winning and keeping the core together that we’ll see a deal for $100M. 8 years 8 zeros. Mcdavid probably jumps to $14 shortly after.
$12.5MM seems light given MacKinnon and Matthews – I would think $13.5MM to $14MM – in reality it should come down a bit if they give him 8 years as a 5-6 year term is best for the team – and he would not be able to get that AAV on a subsequent contract at 35.
I agree, Leon knows he could get $14M if he plays hardball….but I’m speculating that he will leave money on the table to keep the core together and increase his chances of winning a cup or three.
I hear that, and I hope, but I don’t anticipate he’ll leave much on the table. Ok, well, I guess I do think he’ll leave something on the table as, if he went to market on July 1 2025, he would probably get more but, as far as a reasonable re-sign vis-a-vis Matthews/MacKinnon, his comparables, I think he’ll get paid in the range this coming off-season.
With that said, that’s just “what I think” based on, well, nothing substantive.
If Drai wants to win, his best bet is to sign here for no more than a $3M raise. That way the team can afford to buy him some wingers.
I could see Connor come in at 14 mil and Leon 13.5
IMO, When they sign there are a few diff sides to consider.
Fan side: they look at todays Cap and comparables and suggest the player sign in those market conditions. Believe player loves team so much they will take “hometown discount”
Agent side: they look at future Cap increases over the next 6 – 8 yrs and then try to Maximize their clients contract based on that 6 – 8 yrs.
Player side: want to take all info in and do whats best for them financially, professionally and personally.
GM: Dont want egg on their face. Draft good players. Keep good players. Most GM’s won’t be around at the end of the contract – they are looking near term to 4 yrs out.
EXAMPLE: William Nylander. No discount. Max term. Max $$$. Player Happy. GM will have to navigaye the future.
LEON will get paid. Who pays him? Time will tell.
IMO, EDM should do everything to sign him. Prob $14 × 8 yrs. Remember, we could have drafted Sam Bennett 🙂
I agree Leon will get paid. Yes, we could have drafted Sam Bennett….lol but if he doesn’t sign, you need to trade him and get back quality and quality. Toronto is not going anywhere with their big 4.
At this moment is Skinner one of the best Canadian goalies in the NHL? USA is loaded
Canada has been so bloody one sided dominating for the past 20+ years it’s insane to assume it’s going to last forever.
Connor McDavid on the other hand is Canadian. Is that good enough lol
Yes, I agree with you. Hart, Hill, Kuemper, Binnington? There’s no heir-apparent to Price and that’s a big worry for Olympic performance. USA and Russia (if they go) are really strong in net.
Has Seth Griffith been on PP1 all season?
He has 0 PP goals
LT, So i can’t use the F word to clarify that CFP means Chris Fing Pronger?
Wasn’t directed at anyone, I’ve seen worse stuff on the evening news!
Forgive me for being perhaps dense, but why is the number for Oilers Wins (21) different than ROW (19)? Is there another way to win I’m not aware of? Wins before regulation?
ROW does not include shoot out wins
https://www.freshgear.com/hockey-faqs/what-is-row-in-hockey-standings/
Regulation-Overtime-Win
Thanks peeps
Glad the league can’t be bothered to have the stat line. I strongly dislike the Battman NHL
I brought it up yesterday that Skinner was well rested and and had lifetime 3-0 now 4-0 record against the Hawks and how it didn’t surprise me that K.K went with Stuart. I also mentioned that Detroit organization was Pickards former employer for 3 plus previous years. I don’t want to jinx myself but I expect a huge game by Pickard. I’m sure he’s enjoying the N.H.L life again and being veteran knows the importance of coming up big for the team and his further employment. I think the boys will rally and play a solid game in front of him and keep the acquiring a back-up talk to a low hum.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/corey-perry-eligible-to-sign-with-nhl-teams-after-meeting-with-gary-bettman/
Will Edmonton be a rehab spot for another player who has struggled or is struggling with personal issues off the heels of Kassian and Kane?
They’ve definitely got the track record for giving these sorts of players a soft landing spot. He’s also a good fit on this team. Wouldn’t shock me if they made an attempt to sign him.
I do love me a good redemption song.
Oilers are one of the traditional landing spots for bad boy character players.
I’ve been hoping Perry joins the team.
I was okay with Kassian, I wanted Kane, but no thank you on Corey. That guy is not welcome in these parts.
Assuming whatever he did is handled and the team does their due diligence I’m in, sign the man, cap be damned.
I got past the Mike Smith signing, I’m sure I could adjust to Corey Perry (spits) in an Oilers sweater
We could use a little piss and vinegar in the forward group
Sign him .. perfect 4th line guy … playoff depth … etc
Who does he replace? Does Holland have the cajones to trade anyone?
He replaces Erne on a minimum contract.
Lock up your daughters.
For every hockey player ever?
Of the high PDO teams (since Knobby came), the Oilers is the most sustainable. 9.92 SH%, 9.147 SV%, 1.014 PDO
Wild send: Gaudreau, Maroon, Bogosian.
Oilers send: Kane, Ceci, Lavoie.
Get some more good vibes and rentals, clear some space and headaches.
A big rig for the grand Derrick trade is story telling.
Kane is 5X the player Maroon ever was.
Gaudreau is a 3C batting too high in the lineup. Minny forced to play him there because of the cap hell Guerin created, they are not trading him.
Bogosian’s boots are slower than Ceci’s. Very hard pass.
Did Bill Guerin create this trade?
3 replacement level players for:
A star
An ok D man
& a good prospect.
No thanks Billy !
Detroit plays the Oilers tough. Quick and scrappy, sorta small though. Need to be on your toes for rushes and quick strikes in the dzone. Shouldn’t be hard to establish possession on them and rag it though.
They had a nice California run. Gave up a lot of shots and needed a big 3rd period against the Sharks. Came home to some very un-Californian weather.
In an ideal world their quick play and feisty nature sparks the creative juices of our gents, we tune them up and then the bruised Wings take it out on L.A. Saturday night.
I think the Wings one is more dangerous that Saturday night contest but it should be very manageable. Also a bit nervous about Calgary and/or Columbus. More so Columbus but one game at a time.
Montreal play like starving rats against Edmonton. They’re anything but a pushover.
I’m sure Puck IQ is great.
But there is one stat that truly reflects Oiler’s effort last night.
Mrazek SA 15, GA 2, SV 13.
15 SA on a bottom 5 team.
Pathetic!
And yet they still won. Isn’t it nice to win?
So what you’re saying is, Mrazek gave up 4 goals on just 17 shots?
Huh.
Decent chance they are, but still lots is story left to write.
One thing I know – if the Oilers are capable of a 2-9-1 run then the Vancouver Canucks (last 3 seasons out of the playoffs) sure as hell are too.
That PDO is #1 with a bullet.
Demko at .916.
It doesn’t seem possible to be sustainable, sustainable high PDO is usually a function of a goaler going over .930.
But it keeps happening.
For sure. They’ve currently got the highest SH% and PDO in the 17 seasons Natural Stat Trick goes back.
By a lot too. Shooting 13.78% with #2 being 12.40% by St. Louis in 21-22.
And their 1052 PDO is well beyond Boston’s 1040 from last season.
Seems impossible the numbers will continue to be that high.
Tocchet told the team as much
And we all remember how far Boston’s season-leading points that were generated by that PDO carried them in the playoffs…
The parade plans will be ruined!
I have been a Skinner skeptic.
His rebound control, playoff performance, and start to the season had me doubting his ability to be an nhl starter. I admit, I may have expressed my doubts in a number of inflammatory posts.
Well, I am slowly becoming a believer. Skinner’s greatest strength: his goldfish memory and ability to bounce back.
Wow, I came here today to say exactly what LT already said about the game last night. Terrible effort, lucky outcome.
The problem with getting a reward for a bad effort is that the next effort is likely to be similiar and the things that resulted in the positive outcome may not be there (goaltending, weak opponent).
Generally, humans are all lazy at the core. We take the shortest route, we use the fewest words, we work only as much as we have to. Getting a win on a well below average effort is like winning at the casino. Free money without having to work for it is intoxicating. The tendency is to go back to the well over and over again until the gods remind us that free money was lucky and now the free money is back in the hands of the mob.
The Oilers are likely to piss away their currently playoff position over the next few games unless KK can: a) Identify the problem, b) Say the right things to turn it around. He has to convince a bunch of 20 something kids that they got really lucky and anything like that will likely result in disappointment.
This is where coaches can make a big difference. A coach with decades of experience in the NHL would be all over this situation. I am doubtful KK willrecognize it let alone have the right words to motivate them properly, but I hope to be surprised.
Right now everyone in that locker room is delighted with their win and 8 game winning streak including KK. A confident bunch, to be sure.
Counterpoint:
Of the Oilers last 5 coaches the two most inexperienced have been the most successful.
Yeah but many of the 3 experienced coaches were ready for the knackers yard.
We agree that last nights effort was sub par and not worthy of a win. Our host also pointed this out.
So if two fans, casual observers that are not professional hockey ppl see this, then why would this not be apparent to KK, who has many years of coaching experience,
I think you are probably right. KK does see it. After all he’s got some years under his belt in lesser leagues and is now a bonafide NHL coach.
But I seriously doubt he can motivate this group out of a lazy patch with words. Especially this group which has been so lacking in the type of professionalism required to put in a consistent effort game after game or even period after period.
This situation requires a Torts-rip-you-a-new-ahole type speech to prep these guys. I don’t see KK sensing that level of urgency.
I dunno, we’ve seen this Oiler group do some pretty unexpected good things this year – eg. score 4 straight in NYC / NJ, come back on Wpg – when those games were getting away on them and they looked sloppy. Maybe the maturity of the group is there to a point where they give their heads a shake and get back to basics tomorrow.
One day, they’ll lose though!
Perhaps you are right. Maybe I am traumatized by years of inconsistency from an ultra talented group which mostly falls on the coaches. A decent coach should be able to ride this group deep.
They should have gone further in the playoffs last year, the year before that, and the year before that. Their record should be much better this year. There is too much on this roster for this kind of mediocrity.
I hope you are right. I hope to be surprised. We STILL badly need the wins.
Woody got himself outcoached, as did McLellan.
The trouble is, playoff success you either have or else you don’t. Lots of good coaches that never won anything important.
My money is on Knobby to come out intelligently when the playoffs start. KK comes across as a deep thinking type without ego. Woody seemed out of his depth by comparison, and his playoff record proves it to an extent.
McLellan’s Kings are in the process of turning out to be one of those super October/November teams lmao.
I would suggest that, In the last 25 games, this team has put in that consistent effort period after period just as much as any other team in the NHL. No team is as consistent from period to period as you suggest.
As far as the players understanding their play/effort/juice last game is not good enough going forward, I’m very confident they are well aware and I think they remember, and acknowledge, just how bad the same team was in October – their play got a coach fired that they did not want fired.
They have professional and personal pride that was hurt when they got their coach fired due to what we saw last night.
FWIW, Tortorella has been an NHL head coach for more than 20 seasons now. He won a cup (in 2004).
The very best regular season team he ever coached was the 11-12 Rangers who finished with 109 points. The Woodcroft coached Oilers had 109 points last season.
I’m not sure the Torts approach is as effective as you think it is.
It might have something to do with the neurosis among Oilers fans.
Pathological and all of that.
I don’t think the Oilers are delighted with that win or resting on their laurels, they’ve all been in the game long enough to know they lucked out.
Tomorrow’s game will be another challenge – can they get humble and hungry and come out hard? That would be a sign of a true contender.
Not 100% sold on that conclusion, however well thought out it is.
Oilers are due for a loss, and it’s bound to come from any/all of these teams: The Wings; Canadiens; Seattle; Calgary; or Nashville.
CBJ/Chicago you hope and expect the Oilers to be able to curb stomp, but there are always upsets in hockey.
Particularly when a team is totally outclassed like say, Chicago and then they simply play high octane river hockey whereby individual players try to get into the opposition zone and hope that one of their team mates is going to be in the same end of the ice to receive either a pass, or else be there to pick up a garbage goal.
Meanwhile the “better” teams are frustrated because they are getting shut down by all of this low level high energy – or even goaltending which can itself pose massive problems for high scoring teams “cough 1971 Boston/Montreal cough”
To paraphrase Kevin Lowe;
“Paul Coffey, Hall of Fame Gold medal winning Canada Cup Gretzky Dynasty Mario mini Dynasty knows something about winning.”
Brown had a pretty good game by eye but still seems to have hands of stone. Him and Janmark are excellent on the PK though, he even won some draws last night.
If KK can unlock Brown and the third line, the Oilers will be unstoppable. Getting another RW to play with Drai and moving Foegele down would help balance. I’m still hoping Brown goes on a heater and becomes that RW addition they need. While I love that line, imagine what it would look like with Patrick Kane in the Foegele spot.
Throw Toews in at 3C.
I’d rather be in:
Throw Patrick kane in at 2RW, maybe even do more than slight defence tweak and hell maybe even add bottom 6 upgrade – because they started season strategically gearing to accrue some cap space. My offseason wishlist was
1. Campbell buyout (stolarz FA add backup)
2. min 22 man roster to ensure you can actually tweak lineup early in season and have no risk of repeating dangerous period just before Kane injury occurred (playing games short using emergency callups while also needing guys to play injured to even play only 1 short)
3. a ~2-3 million right handed forward thst ideally one who plays center with respectable pk track record and some potential goal scoring upside (mcleod’s brother was 1st preferred option followed by bjugstad)
I dont mind brown. I didn’t like that contract (at very least bonus structure should have ensured payout required more value) but even that isn’t main problem. Main problem is for cap accruement handcuffed reason alone that contract should not have made sense to sign, without at least a Campbell buyout.
Pencilling in Brown to score?
I’d prefer the Oilers to get Crosby at $1 million a year while Penguins retain everything else… and from the way Brown has been scoring I think the Pittsburgh option has more traction.
Gonna heap more praise on Skinny Boy. I am officially amending my expectations for a goalie acquisition from Tandem Partner to Proven Backup. To my eye, he’s reached a level above anything he produced last year.
I’d say he’s approaching Vezina form, if I didn’t know that the NHL can never give an Oiler the Vezina, Norris or Calder.
Helleybuck has this one all but wrapped up so far and it isn’t close imo. Daccord may get consideration but if Buck keeps it up it’ll be a laugher.
Vezina form is good enough for me, if not consideration.
Skinner definitely won’t be in the Vezina conversation, although its nice to see him recover from his atrocious start. Also, perhaps you meant the modern era of Oilers, but Fuhr won a Vezina in 87-88 and Coffey won the Norris twice with the Oilers.
Maybe Fuhr only won the Vezina because everyone felt sorry for him having to play goal for a team that hung him out to dry night after night after night.
*runs away*
As long as that “proven back-up” can play apx 35%-40% of the games and provide solid tending – which will be need come February 13 when the schedule picks up big time.
I call that a 1B but it doesn’t really matters what its called as long as the goalie can do it.
The guy to go and get is Kevin Hayes. 1.75 50% ret for 2 years. Big, fast, pks, 20 goal pace this year, right handed. He would open up soooo many.optikns for Oilers.
pretty sure he’s a lefty …. not sure if that matters to you or not
I prefer optimistic LT to the downer version of early November.
Credit where credit is due. Stu Skinner has been playing some damn fine NHL caliber goal lately. Still the odd yip (helluva pass to Leon in the 2nd there ystd) but he’s definitely more confident now. Squaring up better, challenging but controlled, pushing across well. Its very heartening to see. On the lighter side, the last two games I swear he peaked up to take a look at the empty net… after watching his forwards fail so much you gotta wonder if he’ll take a shot soon.
Also major credit to Vinny. He’s turned it around spectacularly and I had him nearly for dead around Nov. 20 or so. Awesome to see.
To my peeps jtblack and DevilsLettuce and with nod to John Chambers below – 0.850 since Nov. 24. Dammmmmnnnnnn that’s some fine play. But.. we haven’t seen Peak yet. Peak doesn’t let that PP% languish where it is. Peak doesn’t see McD playing 2nd fiddle to the mere mortals in the NHL. Peak doesn’t have the damn Jets or the Death Defiers in Vancouver ahead of you.
Its a long way to the top but the President’s Trophy and top seed in the West will be copper and blue this year.
Here.
Crazy run it is.
EAT CROW. yum yum yum
No crow, you’ve long been a reasonable and sober minded poster. It got hostile in here for optimists. I got worried they lost you with that brutal start.
I would think that Jason Dickinson will now be added to the list of potential acquisitions – his cap hit ($2.65MM) would need to be halved or quartered, of course.
He would be a nice add
Can a player’s cap hit be lower than the league minimum salary via retention?
Yes. Remember Bjugstad from last year?
you zoom and zoom and zoom, and if it takes 15 minutes to figure out if it’s offside, maybe it doesn’t matter.
The NHL of course will take the wrong lessons from this.
The NHL needs to set a time limit on the reviews. If the referees cannot find conclusive evidence to OVER TURN the call on the ice WITHIN 2 minutes; then the call on the ice stands.
Move on. Game continues.
This!
Great suggestion!
That, or employ Dom Lluszczyszyn’s suggested rule that you can’t challenge any goals that are “sweet AF”.
Hyman – best free agent signing
Ekholm – best trade of the Mcdavid era, 2nd best overall imo(CFP). That pass was sublime, nice to see more than 1 dman who can go tape to tape consistently.
Kenny be grinding
I’d say the Roloson trade slightly beats out the Ekholm trade (for now). It’s still the best trade in the last two eras – DoD and McDavid era.
I’d rate the first Pronger trade from STL to EDM as the best trade.
Jimmy Carson for Graves and Murphy ensured the 5th cup; when they added Gelinas to the Detroit players for the greatest 4th line in Oilers history.
Is the Campbell signing “as bad” as the Hyman signing “is good”?
No, Hyman outplaying 10M players has a surplus value imo. And as easy as everyone has said it is, a winger for 97 who isn’t a consensus top 5 player in the league has been hard to come by.
Ty Rattie eat your heart out.
This is true but Jack Campbell has the worst contract in hockey give or take Huburdeau.
you are correct on many things LT (as always);
as far as my Memory serves; the last team to be AWFUL and then rebound to do something magical ….. was the 2019 St.Louis Blues. They went from Dead Last in the standings to STANLEY CUP CHAMPION in the same season.
Edmonton was 31st in the standings after their abysmal start …. now the CHOO-CHOO train is rolling .. can the last stop be STANLEY CUP CHAMPION? Why not.
Gagner has to be in if he’s ready. He adds the little things and the fight you needed in last night’s game as a for instance. That game was one of Knoblauch’s first visible mistakes – he didn’t see what had happened the previous game clearly enough.
Holloway should also be in as soon as he’s ready. Recent winning aside – this isn’t a team that can’t be improved. We are also at the time of the year when fresh legs are a big deal – mid-season fatigue is setting in.
Holloway has the highest CF% of the forwards. Only 14 games, but that kid drives play. Curlock had a nice write up about him. Holloway has game, and once he settles in to the NHL even if he doesn’t score like a demon, he will be a solid contributor
I also think he has more talent than McLeod or Foegele. Has a pretty good shot as well, needs to use it
He can’t stay healthy maybe it’s bad luck or he puts himself in vulnerable positions.
My guess is he’s probably okay to play but they want to make certain. After the last two games, there are candidates to sit based on performance.
If the Oilers win in Detroit it will make for a 17-3 record over the last 20.
An .850 win % over a quarter of a season is an incredible pace. That’s 69.7 wins over 82, better than last season’s record-setting Bruins.
Lets not forget, the Oilers scored four legal goals last night – the officials simply decided to only count 2 of them……
That’s tin hat thinking. KK could of challenged goalie interference.
Lowetide article: Also thrilling is the Leon Draisaitl Railroad Line, led by engine engine 29.
McLeod with a primary 5 on 5 assist and Foegele with a 5 on 5 assist (although McDavid scored it, not his normal line).
5 on 5 points for 37 and 71, if they keep coming every couple of games this 2nd line will have sustain – add Gagner and, in due course, Gagner to that bottom six and it SHOULD be more dynamic (in replacement of Erne and Hamblin).
Yes, I take Erne out despite his 4 hits, half the team’s hits, in 6 minutes of play. Did any of, or the aggregate of, those 4 hits have any impact on the game?
I’m with you. I know Knobby doesn’t like changing things up after a win, but we’re definitely starting to look a little stale. Gagner back in might help inject some more jump in the bottom 6 at least. I’m guessing you meant Holloway in due course rather than Gagner twice? If so I’m with you.
Still, it’s nice that the top 6 continue to hum along like Herbie and his Headhunters.
I’m think out ahead, playoffs, and shots for at 30 and X-Goals at 43 is concerning to me. Connor’s line had 57% shot share at least
Something is still way off for Leon. And like last season heading into the playoffs with 5v5 scoring issues, the truth comes to light as the teams get better. Those of us worried about it had their fears met. Hopefully KK and or Holland can sort it out beforehand
There is a long history of actual production outpacing expected production with Leon on the ice – expected numbers don’t really matter when it comes to Leon.
Yes that’s right. However last year’s playoffs against the Knights his goal share was 40% at 5v5. Connor was 57%. Leon is 51.7% this season, I hope he goes on his 2nd half heater
On the season the line has a 56% shot share and a 59% xG share (and 46% Ozone starts). Absolutely none of that should be concerning.
Kudos to coach K.K for coming up with a 2nd line that has enough speed on the edges that it opens up ice for Leon to do his thing. Leon has been getting the shadow or double team treatment for awhile now and especially when he was playing with a injured Kane and not fully recovered Brown.
I understand the premise but I’m not sure it applies to the situation, at least not perfectly.
I mean, they didn’t play their best against the Sens – they were sloppy but they were also by far the better tam. They deserved to win that game.
They were bad last night but, even with that, it was a fairly even game by high danger scoring chances and five alarm chances (per the Cult). Yes, they were a bit on the negative side and, sure, they didn’t deserve to win last night and their goalie somewhat stole the win but it wasn’t like they were blown out – just no juice, commitment to detail and sloppy.
Sure, maybe its a trend at the end of a streak but I think last night was a one-off due to circumstance.
It happens.
Of all fanbases, I don’t think this one, this season, should apologize or have any negative thoughts around their goalie stealing a game.
We’ll find out early Thursday evening.
This is exactly what people say before a loss.
I hope the Oilers spin out of the contented mode, but history suggests that hockey players, like people, have to be reminded of what fear of failure looks like.
Same as it ever was.
As you say, nobody wins forever, same as it ever was.
I kinda hope they lose one of the next two so they aren’t carrying the weight of an 11 game winning streak into Toronto (cause you can’t win forever).
Skinner over .500 is quite the feat. My goodness did he come from a LONG ways back – I mean he’s been spectacular numbers wise for 15-20 games and he’s now just getting back to .900.
Similar, the Oilers are in a very good spot – and its spectacular given how far they came back from:
1) they have essentially put separation between them and the other wild card teams (2 points back of WC1 but 4 games in hand and tied for WC2 with 3 games in hand
2) they are also now right there for a division spot, 4 points behind LAK with even games and 8 behind Vegas but 3 games in hand.
Ya, they played like crap last night – they won – they got two points and regulation win.
On to Detroit Motor City!
I think the team play had more to do with the goalies playing poorly at the season start. No goalie does well with the amount of rushes and slot shots they were facing. Even if Stu wasn’t full Hasek, it brings their mental state down
Prospectaury!
In the spotlight is Nathan Day, who was lit up for five goals in relief duty his last time out. He has had hard times of late, but might be able to sing his redemption song when the puck drops at 5 p.m. Vilna time.
I wonder if Coach had a feeling or a sense that his team may not have the normal juice or perhaps were going to have crispness they normally have and that was a primary reason that Skinner played last night?
I had that thought too – and then to come back with Pickard is a shot in the arm to a team that will need to rebound by way of playing smart, hard, and organized in front of the lesser keeper. Can’t get in his head but the astute moves prove themselves after the fact, and this could be another.
Skinner was awesome last night and he was alone in that regard. If that’s the silver lining off a 2 point “moral loss”, then take it and maybe like LT said they could have scared themselves into coming in hot in Detroit. I tend not to judge games like that one until I see the next one. If they can rebound and make it 9 with a solid effort against a better opponent, then I think the growth of this team will have proven itself to be exceptional.
I would like to comment as well on McDavid’s leadership in his comments last night. He was pointed and specific about the goal reviews. He kept it respectful but undeniable. He spoke with authority, he spoke to claim authority. Your move, NHL. Next up, a question on Bedard: he spoke as only he could, as the superstar-mentor, fully aware of himself. Finally, comments on the game itself: He acknowledged they weren’t good but that the NHL is a tough league and they won, and they will be better.
Composed, mature, and very aware of his role both on the team and in the sport and his place in history. He seems very thoughtful and reflective.
In Toronto you get gold chains and porno moustaches for this money. I guess thats “personality”.
Player Season Totals – Natural Stat Trick
The shots against per 60 also features Vinny at 6th, and Kulak at 10th. This is indeed music.
Now, if you sort it for goals against per 60…. Winnipeg are terrifying. Samberg, Schmidt, Morrisey, DeMelo are the top 4. Vinny is the only Oiler in the top 20 (at number 18).
High danger chances allowed per 60… Vinny is number 2 in the league, Kulak 5th, Bouchard 10th, Ekholm 21st. I know Jason Gregor was big on talking about the amount of shots in the slot the Oilers were allowing to start the year – this would suggest to me that ship has fully turned around.
We’re playing Miles Davis at the Isle of Wight level jazz now baby!
I want to immediately add the “strength of competition” qualifier to Vinny and Kulak. Still, you have to be better than whoever’s on the ice at the same time as you.
SA/60 Ek Bouch are 2/3. Nurse Ceci 138/143
With HDCA/60 I find Bouch’s number amazing. He’s playing top comp not 3rd pair. Seems he is getting things done defensively. Nurse 114 Ceci 138. Yikes
That has to be the qual of competition and also to do with zone starts surely? This is where I’d like to see an upgrade on Ceci if possible.
Nurse Ceci aren’t facing tougher comp than Ek Bouch anymore. Bouch has been getting the most TOI lately. I think it’s Ceci. Nurse isn’t a top level puck handler or decision maker with it, but he’s good. He really needs a complimentary partner to bring his best out. He doesn’t seem to play at his best consistently yet, I think he needs some better help
People often look at production, but it’s the little things that really count. Ekholm isn’t flashy, but he’s good at all aspects of the game. He was a real boost to the D group. Makes Bouch so much better, the team so much better
There was a piece about C Tanev up at Sportsnet I think. Again not a flashy player, but he is so smart he makes everyone better. Takes away so much from opponents. Gaps so well they are stopped before they get started. Doesn’t score a bunch, but in a capped league you can only afford so much offense. You need those players that quietly disrupt the other team’s plans
According to NST Ek Bouch have the lowest Offensive Zone Start %
Interesting – I’m with you on upgrading Ceci if possible. If my mind is remembering correctly, 2 years ago Ceci was doing that quiet non flashy defensive stalwart thing very well, wasn’t he? He’s dropped off a tad last season and into this year. I don’t think he’s terrible per say, just would like to see someone slightly better to pair with Nurse.
I agree with your points above about Ekholm, the difference between how he and Bouchard have performed between last year, injured Ekholm to start the year, and now clearly healthy Ekholm are stark. He makes a material difference (to use an OPism).
I think Nurse and Ceci simply had a good run a couple of seasons back. Like Drai Yama a few years ago, but once it ended it never returned
NHL_SID had a look at the D group a season or two ago. He does manual tracking of certain things as they aren’t publicly available from the NHL. He saw that Nurse used to be good at defending zone entries, and was great at retrievals, but had faded
Ceci was only good at in zone defence. Which matches the eye test – he is positionally sound. The issue is if you aren’t a fast skater, not good at defending zone entry (which is largely gapping well), aren’t good at retrievals, and aren’t good at outlet passing, you are defending more, and not carrying weight for your partner
Bouch’s only weakness was in zone defense, was the best at defending entries, makes sense. Barrie had many issues, Trotz sees them. Ek is good at everything
Kulak had a lot of strengths, zone entries being one. I think Des is dragging him down, like Ceci is Nurse. Ceci is of course better than Des, but they have the same issues
Agreeing with many of your interpretations up to this point, but you’ve got this one backwards. Ekholm-Bouchard are #1 and 2 on the team in HIGHEST Ozone start %. Nurse-Ceci have the lowest (ie – toughest), though the spread is not huge (~48-55%).
Nurse-Ceci still playing tough minutes w/o McDavid. That’s part of the story.
Yes for sure. Drai hasn’t been at his best, wingers up till now dragging him down. It’s a two way street. If Nurse had a better partner, or a more capable partner, he and Drai might have better results
Exactly. Nurse-Ceci have played just 104 minutes with McDavid this season, and 420 minutes without. They’re 17-16 goals in those minutes, despite being slightly below 50% in all other categories.
By contrast Ekholm-Bouchard have played 319 minutes with McDavid and 212 without. They are 12-10 goals in the without minutes.
Very nice numbers to look at but 3rd pairing d-man often have very nice number – Matt Benning always did, for example.
The idea that Skinner struggled early in the year may have some merit, but I think the main reason he looked bad was because the team in front of him forgot how to play hockey. Hasek in his heyday wouldn’t have helped in that first month.
Agreed our defensive play was atrocious in first part of season. Cost Woody his job.
Many folks liked Barrie and thought he was good. Then we got Ekholm, and the boost to the team was massive. Barrie’s PP contributions weren’t missed, because he wasn’t actually doing much more than being able to make a pass, and choose the right option most often
He was not great at moving the puck up and doesn’t have the speed to skate it, and wasn’t great at defending the defensive blue line. These things affect the momentum of the whole team, and lead to unnecessary defending
They definitely need another good C as LT mentioned. By it stands out to me that getting another actual top 4 RD would give a boost like Ek did, perhaps not to the same level
Ceci by ability is a 3rd pairing D in today’s game. Des is a 7. It is a huge drag on the team as I see it, more than issues with forwards
Agree. Ceci is a gamer but if you want to the Stanley, you need to upgrade Nurse’s partner. With the new approach that Mr. Coffey has implemented, Ceci gets a lot of ‘looks’ and my god, he never scores. Also, it is nerve wracking to see him race for a puck in the D-zone against a speedy winger.
So, who are possible targets – Tanev, Sean Walker? Anybody else. Personally, I don’t think Tanev is coming to Edmonton. Philly may be more willing to part with a UFA esp.. if they fall in the ranking and look to be out of the playoffs. However, Oilers would need to do some cap jugglery to make the $s work.
A d-core of Nurse – Walker; Ekholm-Bouch and Broberg-Ceci won’t be too shabby, imo.
Vinnie is a great story but not a great defenseman – his game processing speed is too slow for the type of transitions this team relies on. He struggles getting pucks to players in stride and/or those cycling up in the neutral zone. The play often comes back in a real hurry.
He does recover fairly well due to reach, but we seem to get trapped for entire shifts when he is on the ice.
Agreed. Another problem is that the Oilers are not allowed to hold and pick as much as our opponents in the playoffs. Des’s player type – huge and slow – doesn’t work if you can’t use the size to hold and obstruct. If he starts getting called in playoffs he will be useless against a fast team with high tempo
Maybe you’re asking for 2nd line skills from a 3rd line defenceman.
There are better options that complement the team system. We may even have 3rd line defensemen in the organization who could provide the necessary skill set.
I don’t buy into the ‘don’t change a winning formula’ ideology. Continuous quality improvement is the objective. Inserting sparks of energy, and holding players accountable, particularly when winning, is key to long term success.
It was/is an big organizational FAIL to not try Broberg on the right side with Nurse.
That doesn’t line up with reality.
Not playing Broberg, yes.
Not giving him some NHL reps on the right side, perhaps.
Not playing him 35% of his TOI vs. elites on his off-side – not a chance.
Dom has the Oilers with the 2nd highest odds of winning the cup this season as of today:
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1745094832257745117
Kudos to GM McDavid for righting the ship.
I would have to say Skinner out goalied Mr.Asak last night.
Love the idea of a 3rd line of Kane. Holloway. Gagner
and our 4th line then becomes PKers and depth. Dare I say balance??????? Dare I dream of the mythical Balance photo???????
It’s funny how we see the game differently. CoH gave Drai a good grade for the game, I thought he was awful for lots of it. The stat lines LT posted for his line tell the same story. He is very talented at shooting and passing, he scored, but when he doesn’t skate, the risky passes start and chaos ensues. Turn overs, less O zone time, and often lots of jailbreaks against
December is over. I hope he starts getting back to dominant Leon. He’s 22nd in scoring. 20th in forward points. 6th worst +/- of the top 20 forwards. On the team ranked 3rd in TSN Power Rankings
If I don’t see him start skating more, and with more energy, I will be very concerned about resigning him. He’s only 28, and if he’s losing his legs already, yikes to an 7-8 year contract. It seems to me that after LA injured him, things have changed with his mobility, which was never great. I’m not trashing Leon, it’s just what I see, and I want Connor’s next contract to be supported by astute management, to allow him to do what he can do
Drai has always been a player where he seems to go stretches where his skating looks extremely laboured like he’s trying to skate through sand, but then will have a few games where he flying like a demon. This year has definitely been more of the former than the latter, moreso than I recall.
Hard to speculate if it’s anything to do with that ankle injury or if he is indeed losing his legs. Drai has always been a last half of the season player. Last year there were a lot of concerns regarding his 5v5 stats at the start of the season that quickly flamed out in the midst of the back 41 games. Have to remember the PP isn’t humming like it has been the past few years that also detracts from his point totals.
That said… if you were to move Drai and do so this season, what makes sense? Blockbuster trade: Leon Draisaitl, Brett Kulak, Jack Campbell for Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson, Ilya Sorokin and a 1st. Who says no?
The Islanders?
Islanders give up 2 premium players (Dobson and Sorokin), plus a 1st, plus take on a 5 million dollar cap dump(Campbell) for 1 year of Draisaitl?
Why in the hell would they do this?
I don’t think they will trade Leon, I am early regretting the next contract. Any deal would be a summer deal I think, too big for in season, and Holland is still there and does not have the cajones for that kind of thing in season. Maybe this summer when the new GM asks, Leon will want 15M and they will have to deal him
I think for me now that they have taken the next step with KK – their overall team play is the best in decades, minus last night – I am now thinking about the second half of Connor’s career. I really want him to see the championships he should
Leon since Christmas: 6 GP, 5-3-8, +7, all points at even strength.
His biggest issue right now is lack of production on the PP, where he has been one of the league’s best for years.
And he’s carrying basically 2 3rd line wingers (and certainly not scorers) usually paired with the Oilers second pair D (Nurse and Ceci).
Yes he gets his points
Worst game of the year from a fans perspective. That was incredibly hard to watch, no matter which team you were rooting for.
The Oilers looked like a team that didn’t respect their opponent. It showed in their compete level and especially in their decision making.
The best example of this was Bouchards decision just before the Eckholm penalty.
Bouchard has the puck in the neutral zone with plenty of time and space to make a play. Instead he chooses to meander back into his own zone, and when he does feel pressure, he just dumps the puck into his partners corner. Suddenly Eckholm has to retrieve a puck with a Hawk bearing down on him and takes a penalty.
Bouchard basically turned a basic neutral zone regroup into a good dump in for the Hawks!
I love the offense, but he is still making 1 or 2 of these brain dead decisions every game. Drives me nuts and I just don’t understand what he is thinking.
kudos to coach K.K for starting a rested Skinner against the so called lame duck Hawks. We all know anyone can beat are compete with anyone in Hockey just ask the German Olympic team. With gambling blatantly shoved down our throats the 2 called back goals changed the pace of the game. I watched the Lakers-Raptors game and the fix was in. The 4th quarter officiating was a disgrace Raptors Coach Rajakovic sounded off like no tomorrow. It took a lot of courage but you can tell this man speaks his mind when a injustice takes place.
Always amazed at what some posters will down vote. The Raptors game was a travesty. Raps coach likely going to get a big fine.
I thought he was outstanding. It’s BS. Lakers 23 free throws to 2. Jesus.
Agreed. I upvoted all 3 comments in this little bit just to add some balance.
Saw some of those calls / noncalls from the Raptors game & it was a gorddammed disgrace. Refs might as well have put on Lakes jerseys.
For the younger crowd that may not have heard this, or the older crowd to reminisce.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7mCmm2FKKg
Note that I don’t like the Hawks, but still think Gretzky rocks. One might be tempted to change the lyrics to McDavid, but the end of the song is melancholic.
Tks Stuart Skinner
Man I’m loving McLeod’s game right now. Esp seeing him use his speed to retrieve/turn over pucks
McLeod made a key play in the dying seconds to win a puck in the d zone, with 3 teammates on the wrong side of the play in the neutral zone.
Also a nice feed to Draisaitl for the 1-1.