Evan Bouchard scored the winner last night on an absolute missile in overtime. He is on pace for a 20-goal, 80-point season, exceeding my predictions and is blossoming as an impact player.
What does that mean for the Oilers? It’s one more layer for the roster, one more weapon the opposition has to worry over. The Oilers are a wagon, as the kids say. 10 in a row on McDavid’s 27th birthday, won in extra time in hockey’s holy land. A Saturday night HNIC no less. What a night!
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Where do the Oilers need to improve depth before the NHL trade deadline?
- DNB: Oilers are back as a Western Conference power
- Lowetide: Could this be the ultimate Edmonton Oilers season?
- DNB: Projecting the Oilers’ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension
- Lowetide: Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers complete 2023-24 prospects update
- Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 5-0-0, 10 points in 5 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 23-15-1, 47 points in 39 games
The Oilers are tracking both the Los Angeles Kings and Vegas Golden Knights and this is extremely rare in the Bettman era. The 2-9-1 start has given way to a 21-6-0 run that is breathtaking. In the last 10 games, Edmonton has gained 12 standings points on the LAK and 14 on the VEG. Music!
I noticed some upset after the game, some people thought it was a boring game. I can’t agree. It was close, tense, tight. You have to give the other team their due. The Montreal Canadiens don’t have the same talent as the Oilers, but they don’t get outworked and that was a game that could have gone either way. For me, it was a most enjoyable game. It felt like one of those Oilers playoff matches where you kind of know the club isn’t going to score, but in this case Leon Draisaitl found a seam after Warren Foegele went to the net like John Kruk heading for home plate. It was a fun game from here.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner is in the zone. Since December 1, over 12 games, his five-on-five save percentage is .937 and his overall save percentage is .930 in the last six weeks. His five-on-five total in that time places him No. 5 in the NHL among starters, the overall save percentage ranks No. 4.
The big story on defense last night was the Bouchard goal, a ripper that secured a 10-game winning streak on a memorable night. The Habs are a tough out, or were last night, and the top pairing (along with the McDavid line) were outstanding. In 11:04 at five-on-five, the five man unit delivered 23-8 Corsi events, 9-5 shots, 4-0 HDSC according to Natural Stat Trick. This kind of five-man power unit hasn’t been in evidence on planet earth since Mick Taylor was a member of the Rolling Stones. Absolute fire.
Darnell Nurse with Cody Ceci had an effective night. The two men spent 8:34 with the Leon Draisaitl line (Warren Foegele, Evander Kane) and came out the other side with 19-5 Corsi events, 11-3 shots, the tying goal and an 89 percent expected goal share. This quintet riffs off the top line like Duane Allman dueling Eric Clapton on Layla. Breathtaking. I have some other notes:
- Phil Kemp didn’t play a bunch, but played well on a line with Adam Erne and James Hamblin. In just about two minutes, the trio had the only shot on goal. Kemp didn’t look out of place, but it must have been surreal. It’s like being hired to play piano and then being asked to play the french horn. Kemp didn’t get his Al Kooper moment (french horn on “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”) but he’s in the NHL official guide and record book for all time. I hope he gets another, longer look as a defenseman in the NHL. Kemp’s resume is more subtle, because he isn’t a puck mover. However, he’s consistent and long ago NHL-ready. Glad he got the chance to play.
- Connor Brown had a good night. I know there’s much frustration with his bonus and lack of production, and I do wonder how many more games he’s going to get sometimes. However, he had four shots on goal and a very good chance last night. He has seven shots and three HDSC’s in the last two games. Holland and the coaching staff have the patience of Job (it’s spelled Job but pronounced Jobe, rhymes with globe. Heathen) with this player. Maybe it’ll work out fine.
- Warren Foegele is earning another contract. Pretty sure.
- Evander Kane is 17-17 goals at five-on-five without Connor Brown. Brown is 3-3 goals five-on-five without Kane. There’s an enormous amount of blame placed on both men for being shy in outscoring in 2023-24. I think a case can be made that the remnants remain from the tough start for McDavid when these two men were playing with him early on (0-3 goals) and Leon Draisaitl (1-4 goals). I do think it best they are apart, as we saw last night.
CONDORS WIN
I know it’ll sound like a broken record, but Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie shone last night in California. Along with Olivier Rodrigue, who didn’t play last night, these three men are the cream of the crop in Bakersfield. I don’t know how many of them will play 200+ NHL games, but there’s real talent there.
Eight straight games with <=2 GA’s. Competition isn’t hot but that’s good defensing.
The effort they brought against Detroit was heartening. They pulled themselves up to a higher game and throttled them. Goals were a little shy but everything else is there. Mature teams do this consistently. Its exhausting to go all out for 82 straight. Finding different ways to win that conserve physical and mental energy is yuge. You want to come into February with its WC heavy schedule tuned up and healthy.
Leafs blow another 3rd period lead and lose in regulation.
The more I think about it the more of a huge win last night at the Bell Centre.
For those who have yet to stroll through the fan’s concourse at the Bell Centre, it feels like the team is begging you to buy a crippling amount of merchandise off of them, in order to pay the salaries of the players.
Leafs will come with all guns blazing. Like them or not they can give anyone a tough game.
Including themselves.
I have to confess to being a Dolphins(only when they win) fan. Not much reason to watch them until this season but boy were they frozen fish sticks in KC.
Go Chiefs!
And you like fish sticks, do ya?
That’s for you South Park fans out there.
https://twitter.com/NLGrowlers/status/1746677846519566556?t=GCeTNmWmR6MObzR-xRl45Q&s=19
Part time Edmonton radio personality & Shoresy actor Terry Ryan is a beauty
Why should anyone care about a radio personality that uses Twitter, unless it’s to play samples of his radio personality?
It would make a sensational movie pitch at the Cannes Film Festival next May.
The dude can even star in it himself, Crocodile Dundee style.
I just watched that clip. It’s great.
Savoring the moment. Awesome
https://twitter.com/spittinchiclets/status/1746659973017346244
Wow. Thanks for sharing.
My trade deadline Christmas wishlist only has 2 items. Henrique and Tanev. Henrique centering our L3 would be perfect and Tanev could form a superb shutdown pair with Nurse. Getting both would be expensive and maybe not even do-able because of the cap. Even with retention we would have to send out salaries and we don’t have many big ones (aside from Campbell) that are expendable. You’ve got like this defense though.
Nurse Tanev
Ekholm Bouchard
Broberg Ceci
Desharnais
RNH McD Hyman
Kane Drai Foegle
Holloway Henrique Brown
Janmark McL Ryan
Just for fun – bring back the big rig – won’t cost much
Would be nice
There is A LOT of interest in Tanev across the league. The price would be very expensive.
Unlike outsiders Holland and Treliving Conroy is old boys club he still has hatred of the Oilers in him and would never make a trade with Edmonton unless it’s for a 1st plus a prospect. This Tanev wish is nothing but comical.
Well it must be nice to have such deep personal insights into the flames org and their GM. It’s a wish-list not a prediction. Henrique might be the better option as upgrading Ceci is obviously going to be tough
Yes the team has won 10 games, are on a fantastic run
Still things are happening where they are having issues in certain areas. All 3 game states aren’t dominant anymore at the same time
If people are recognizing and commenting on it, criticizing those folks and calling them out as unappreciative or overly negative is not called for. I doubt anyone is a bigger or truer Oilers fan than I am, seriously after reading years. Some don’t care about sports as much or in the same way, many of us do and get over the disappointments just fine, but want to talk about it
I am appreciating and thoroughly enjoying the run and new coaches, but can see troubling things that I hope they correct, for playoffs. I trust these coaches to do it as it stands
This team with these players should be dominant. Even more so with a GM being smart. They are winning, but by thin margins lately that have to do with quality of individual play and strategy, even though they massively outshoot most opponents
One step at a time, but it should be open for discussion without being called out for it or basically insulted
I think what you’re saying regarding the criticism is:
My question is if an expectation of dominance in all game states reasonably feasible?
I mean, the Bruins, for all their regular season dominance last season, finished 12th on the PP – far from dominant.
Vegas won the cup and were 2nd to LAST in PK% in the playoffs.
Separate point but Vegas got called for so few penalties it didnt matter 😜
No, my point is if someone legitimately wants to talk about some perceived weaknesses – the point of the blog is talking about the Oilers – they shouldn’t be trashed and accused of various things
There are some that just rail on and don’t make any points, and some that do have an argument or concern that is valid
Oh My, 2 possessions 2 touchdowns.
3 for 3
Do you think Oilers are going to win the next game and go to 11 wins in a row?
Or do you think 10 is enough and they’re already running on fumes and so, they might as well lose this next one.
Yes = Thumbs up
No = Thumbs down
Scores in the last 4 games.
3-1
2-1
3-2
2-1
Playing in and winning low scoring games.
Get involved in as many types of games as possible and learn how to win in them.
More please.
It’s ok for a while, but I want to see them start winning by 2-3 goals and low GA, which shows that they are dominating
Right now they aren’t finishing well enough, and that’s not good for when it counts. Squeaking out wins can be a step
For me the most important stat is Wins. After that it’s goals for and against. Then Special teams. And then we can get into the fancies. I’d love to see them blow a the leafs out of the water on Tuesday and I’d be even more happy with 16 1 goal wins in the spring. Big takeaway here is this team is learning how to win. Any way possible. Keep it coming!
At a guess I’d say much of what’s made the Oil pop has been heavily scouted, and tactics against are starting to bear fruit. It’s been amazing to see this team stick with a game plan through adversity, but it may also be time for a tweak somewhere on the attack, for a few different looks or change-ups. Like what? I dunno I’m not a coach…
Cowboys will open the vault just like the Oilers did for Holland and hire half fossilized Belichick. Booook it….
If Oilers fans want to feel better when Toronto comes to town;
Simply chant, on national television: “1967! 1969! 1967!”
Will that really make us feel better?
I dunno, Islanders fans used to chant “1940! 1940! 1940!” at the New York Rangers.
lol, eat shite cowboys.
For GB, Love is all you need – he’s been incredible.
Summarizing!
The House of Stone got off the schneid with his 13th goal of the season in a 4-2 loss. He earned 3rd star honours for his effort.
Prospecting takes a break until Friday.
The team seems a little snake bit lately
Since Nov 13, they are GF 6th, GA 5th, GF% 3rd
Since Dec 13, they are GF 7th, GA 3rd, GF% 4th
They have managed to play tighter defensively. To my eye it doesn’t seem like a trade off of offense for defense. They are still greatly outshooting usually, just not cashing, and as I’ve commented I don’t think they are getting as good shots off overall as before, after KK arrived, Bouch excepted (mainly because if he hits the net and not the goalie, it’s probably in)
If they can keep things tight on D, get a little finish back, and keep the good goalie play, it would be pretty good rolling into playoffs
They will need good scoring against The Jets, Avs, Stars or Dys, as those teams have been scoring at the top of the league. They will need the PP better and keep the 5v5 production up. I can’t see the Oilers winning playoff series by lock down D. Firstly I don’t think it would sustain, and secondly teams that go deep can score, one way or another
Oilers are on a 10 game winning streak, and to paraphrase the new head coach they’re winning in every which way and that’s excellent in his opinion.
Winning the Stanley Cup in the 21st century takes 4 straight rounds of solid play which is probably why the finals often stink, as the teams are too tired from the attrition. In the 70’s the final 2 rounds were astonishing such was the level of pure hockey dynamics.
Original 6 teams played no more than 14 games, and the Oilers dynasties played no more than 21. Those extra potential 7 games are like the difference between a 12 round and 15 round boxing match.
Anyway Oilers are bound to lose a couple of games before the All Star break. The thing is, is to not lose more than 2 of them. Leafs will be next and with a local fanbase will feel right at home.
The Leafs will be on their 3rd in four. They blew a three goal lead last night to start off. Shakey defense and goaltending.
I’d take the over on our guys.
Average salary for 2RW $3,416,989.26 $4,766,667 $1,850,000 avg-high-low
Foegele #155 in league scoring 7G 14A that top six material makes under league average for the position. Why do some folks want to get rid if him?
We have to sign McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard, which will eat up a minimum of $15 milllion in AAV, two 3rds to three quarters of which hit two summers from now.
Then it will be good to have an experience 2rw making average money for that position. Also Holloway and Laavoie have shown sweet Fanny Adam’s in taking over that spot. Also what makes you so sure Drai is resigning with good ol our town?
Re-signing McD, Drai and Boosh will take a maximum of $15M. McD @ $17.5M, Drai @ $13.5M and Boosh @ $8.9M is a worst case scenario.
I think $16M, $13M and $8.5M is a more reasonable best estimate, a $12.6M increase in AAV over a period of 3 cap increases.
In a fantasy world where McD and Drai take discounts, $14M, $12M, $8.5M.
Let’s call the range $10M to $15M, and a potential cap increase of $6M to $16M
Bouchard at or under Nurse’s $9.25 million is pretty optimistic. I sort of think $9.25 is the minimum and baked in.
$13.5 million is probably mid-range for Draisaitl, not max.
$17.5 is probably mid-range for McDavid, unless he decides to be like Crosby and take a discount.
So $15 million is below midrange. If the Oilers are lucky, $14 million.
I don’t think McDavid will come anywhere near $17.5MM – that will be within $1MM of the max cap and essentially prohibitive of winning.
I suspect we’ll see him in the $15.5MM range.
And replace Ekholm.
By then, even a 2LD will be demanding $8 million.
No one wants to get rid of him. But cap casualties are coming
If he stays on line 2 and keeps near 1 P/G, they would have to trade another 5M winger to keep him. And he’s the least skilled of the lot, and not really physical
He’s going nowhere this season. Or perhaps it would be very surprising if he did. Something will have to give in the next summer or two
I also don’t expect Foegele or McLeod to be able to keep the pace up in the top 6, although McLeod being younger with room to still develop has a better chance of it. Warren has had looks before in the top 6 and not stuck, but great for right now
I just can’t wait to see who are next 2rw is and all the cap room we will be saving.
It needs to be Lavoie or Holloway. You’re right in that trading for or signing an established player isn’t going to save cap
He plays with Leon. His numbers should be goofy good.
Can you think of any player making less than 3M that was goofy good playing with Drai?
Connor McDavid.
Because he’s walking at the end of the year. It’s called asset management are you going to let Leon and Connor do the same if they plan on leaving.
So you want to trade him for a second round pick and slot in sweet Fanny Adam’s in his spot?
Someone who slots in the line-up better 3C they’re out there. Why do most posters think Holland is incapable of making a real hockey trade.
During this 10 game streak, Oilers have a top line winger stashed.
Evander Kane
Hurt, off his game, whatever. He’s still a top line winger.
They need to do whatever to get him healthy. When he’s back it just allows more options to spread out the attack.
Make that 2, because Brown has been throughout his career
Heading in to last night’s game, the player in the league with the most 90+ mph shots was….. Evan Bouchard with 60.
Alex Ovechkin was in 2nd place…………………… with 35 such shots.
..And Hyman intentional stands down range. Golly, what a player.
https://theathletic.com/5015509/2024/01/14/nhl-player-cards-pacific-division/?source=user_shared_articleNHL Player Cards: Pacific Division
Evan Bouchard + 25 net rating
Matthias Ekholm + 17 net rating
something something D pair.
And yes better than
Quinn Hughes + 21 and Hronek + 13 if you are HH
And yea better than
Makar + 17 and Toews +9
Better call your bookie.
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/james-norris-trophy/
And they need to suspend the All Star game.
So a popularity contest?
I thought this was a numbers blog
Also is that Noah Dobson below Bouchard?
Imagine that
Only the top 2 have a chance and the odds reflect that.
You mean the all star game with a sub 900 save percentage goalie getting voted in?
Classic HH red herring.
I’ve enjoyed Kane as an Oiler, yet if he’s turning into Kassian and crying about ice time during a 10 game streak.
Kane for Maroon.
What’s this now?
Maybe I’ve missed the latest, but last night SN commentators spontaneously mentioned how little complaining Kane has done.
No
Kane has and still will play a critical role for this team.
It’s almost impossible to have every single player healthy and top of their game at all times.
I f you are to trade them every time one falters I think you lose every trade.
I would dump Kanes contract
just because powerforwards and being in their 30s
but can’t predict needing hand reattachment surgery
and he’s been playing injured this year
Definitely a player I would stash on LTIR until playoffs and trade in offseason
I don’t recall anyone worrying about power forward Gordie Howe in his 30’s.
Or Mark Messier for that matter.
Then it depends on exactly what one is seeking out of a power forward.
Stauffer said Kane hasn’t complained about it at all.
Spector was baiting him and he basically agreed that he wasn’t happy about his ice time, but that he’s going to keep his mouth shut for now.
Yep, no good player would ever be pleased with his ice time being cut. I would be concerned if a guy didn’t mind playing less.
In my opinion , “Dylan Holloway – his offence might be shy” is repeated much too often.
Holloway brings other skills. You cannot have a team of pure skill or pure offence. Somebody has to put the puck on the scorers stick.
Que Montreal here. I did not see much talent. However as LT stated, I seen a lot of skating and hard work, and it was enough to take a highly skilled team into overtime. Without the high sticking penalty the game still hung in the balance.
I only state this as while Holloway May need to provide more offence on a different team, on this version of the Oilers he’s a good fit “as is”
I hope he can pick up his game again at the NHL level. High energy skating, forecheck and puck pursuit, the points will come. With all the talent on the team today, I think Holloway can learn from the best and develop into a 20-25 goal player. Not bad.
Skilled workhorses are required for any successful operation.
On the prairies, we should understand this better than most
You know what you are made of when the minus 40 temperatures hit and there is work that cannot be put off!!
Or repairs, or animals, or frozen cars, or furnaces that shut down ……gack
I know what you meant but this just came to mind…
I can see Holloway playing an Ethan Moreau type game and peak Ethan Moreau was an impact player.
Peak Ethan Moreau = wtf 1 season??
Moreau was a decent player, and nothing special at that.
That said, every team needs Ethan Moreaus’s playing for them.
ps: I think I just beat myself in my own argument.
Unusual stat line for Connor Brown last night.
9:22 at even strength: shots 3-0 Oilers, Brown 3 shots
2:15 on the penalty kill, shots 1-0 Oilers, Brown 1 shot
0:41 on the powerplay, shots 1-0 Oilers, Brown 0 shots
He played 12:18 in all situations, during which time Montreal had 0 (ZERO) shots on net while Brown himself had 4 of EDM’s 5. Exclude that one PP shift for fun; at evens & PK it was 4 shots for Brown & 0 for all other players on both teams. Just the even strength aspect on its own is brow-raising.
Nearly scored on that PK chance, & had a couple of wicked outside shots from the wing at evens. Long overdue for a little joy in the lamp-lighting dept.
He will not be the new Toby. He WILL score at some point.
Every season there is at least one roster player who can’t buy a goal.
Last year it was Foegele iirc.
McLeod has gone for long stretches, I don’t think anyone wishes (now) we had dumped these players.
Gripping one’s stick too tight is a hell of a thing when your confidence is in the toilet.
I hope he finds it, we can use his solid PK work come playoff time.
Nope not true. Foegele stats. Playoff stats on the far right.
Belanger triangle?
Thank you for pulling these numbers
Was Gagner healthy last night and they dressed Kemp when the bottom 6 can’t piss a drop offensively?
Congrats for Kemp, but dress the best players available at all times.
That was an AHL 4th line the Oilers were deploying.
Stauffer mentioned ‘upper body issues’ wrt Gagner, and the speculation is he is still suffering from concussion symptoms
Kemp was just a warm body
Question for capologists: is there any advantage to sitting out Gagner long enough so he can be put on LTIR retroactively?
Nope, there could be actual disadvantages due to cap accrual generally not being available in LTIR (s/t exceptions).
If its just retroactive and not used to get another man on the roster than it has no cap implications. I think.
The PP for me can be so irritating sometimes I have to change the channel. Pass, pass, pass, skate around, pass, pass. Watch the other team’s players….they are just standing there waiting for the oilers to stop passing and skating around the outside. There seems to be so little going on this year on Nuge’s side, teams are cheating to Leon’s side I think and they know there is no one-timer coming on Nuge’s side (he has to accept pass, pivot some 90 degrees and then shoot or whatever) which gives oppo time)….. and Leon is often too far back at his sniper spot. Great win though and winning without dominant PP is a good thing overall I guess.
you know they just won 10 in a row right?
Oilers fans won’t be happy until all of the criteria are met:
-100% PP conversion
-100% PK
-goals from each of the 4 forward lines
-team has to dominate evens as well, as they shouldn’t rely on special units
-Draisaitl and McDavid must play as little as possible as the rest of the team has to thrive without them
-goalies must be in the Vezina conversation and must steal any game the Oilers are in danger of losing
-Nurse has to just become better at everything
-Oilers need to play all prospects just as long as they don’t make any critical mistakes
-Oilers need to play the vets who won’t make critical mistakes that prospects make
-If the vets make critical mistakes that prospecte make, the Oilers should play the prospects instead
-Oilers must hit everything in sight and they must employ agitators who hit, but don’t get injured and can actually score goals
-Oilers must do this 60 minutes a game, every game of the year, because if they don’t, they won’t be able to beat all of the other teams who also can’t achieve these things either
You left out signing Drai and McDavid to league minimum contracts, for max term
Plus the Calgary Flames figuring out a way to send 15 million in cap space to the Oilers, just in case they need it.
You forgot to mention the .999 goalie save percentage.
They also need to sell $1 beers and Michelin star concession food.
The same PP was over 30% last year, the best score rate of all time (well, at least since they started tracking) and then was over 40% in the playoffs – FORTY PERCENT!
It was also 7th in the NHL heading in to last night’s game.
100%, it can be better. 100% it can look very stale when they have limited motion.
I would also, 100%, never turn the channel because McDavid, Drai, Nuge, Hyman and Bouch are coming on the ice against 4 defenders.
This is actually hilarious.
Maybe you prefer teams without much talent. When they make plays it’s always one player doing the heavy lifting while 1 or 2 other players might be able to get themselves into position to get a low percentage pass – translating into another low percentage opportunity to score.
When Oilers play hockey it’s throw the puck around with real authority – until one of the leagues better players can get the puck for yet another 5 star chance to score.
We’re a Ceci upgrade away from having an elite defensive corps
and don’t get me wrong we are asking too much for a guy getting paid 3rd pairing money but Ekholm Bouchard is the arguably the best D pair in league and Kulak Desharnais are bonafide
https://x.com/mathewjdp/status/1746398319746990086?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
5v5 xGA league wide
4 of our D are top 10
GA are only one part of the equation when assessing modern defensemen.
Toews-Makar
Hughes-Hronek
McAvoy-Lindholm
Among others, would like a word.
That’s true. That’s why Bouchard Ekholm are the best pairing in the league by that metric
https://x.com/jfreshhockey/status/1743291962508165222?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
its not even close
All that charts says is that McDavid is a pretty good player.
Cale Makar has played apx 70% of his 5 on 5 minutes with BOTH MacKinnon and Rantanen…..
Not even close.
GF%
Hughes 65.56
Hronek 64.89
Bouchard 55.71
Ekholm 59.32
Good grief, stop.
All that shows is Hughes and Hronek are playing in front of a Vezina nominee.
which they are
Ekholm-Bouchard
63%SF 58%GF 66%xGF
Toews-Makar
54%SF 49%GF 55%xGF
Hughes-Hronek
52%SF 65%GF 52%xGF
Lindholm-McAvoy
Have never been a regular D pair
Results matter,
GF/GA 5V5
Hughes 59/31
Hronek 61/33
Ekholm 35/24
Bouchard 39/31
Plus/Minus is a very blunt instrument but it doesn’t tell you nothing especially halfway through the season.
Hughes and Hronek lead the entire NHL with each at +32
Ekholm +12
Bouchard +5
I listed GF% for all the pairs.
There’s also no chance (injury aside) that Hughes-Hronek finish the season with a 1068 PDO.
Ill take what is thatcher Demko for 800 Alex
Oh, the troll is back? Are you not getting enough attention in your life? Or maybe you’re not feeling very good about yourself.
Hey remind me – how’s LA doing?
Bouchard/Ekholm -66% xGF share
Maker/Toews -55% xGF share
Expected goals is a better predictor of individual success, like someone else said, the Col duo is playing in front of incredible goaltending.
Looking for attention to be sure. Class clown mentality. I’ve watched him get kicked off Sportsnet 12 times in one week, kept coming back with different names. Also needed to use a different email to do it… a dedicated troll.
#punchdrunk
The Canucks (along with a few other teams) are running really hot. The Canucks GF% isn’t underpinned with their CF%. Basically everything is going in for them, thus the numbers you posted, which aren’t lower in GA
Might last the season, might not. We know it can’t go on forever though, not like this. Since Dec 13 the DYS are 63.77 GF%. The Krak are 73.91 GF%, the Jets 72.73 GF%.
The Oilers at 61.11 GF% is the most sustainable of these teams. The Oilers are also ahead of those teams in CF%, FF%, SF%, HDCF%, xGF%
Clearly, the use of the word “arguably” is beyond you.
Some metrics point to the Oilers’ top pair, other metrics point elsewhere — so a credible argument can be made for Bouchard / Ekholm.
That you included two Bruin defenders who aren’t a regular pair says more for your argument than anything else.
Yeah I agree! F leadfarmer for expressing excitement about players on their favourite team posting every good/great numbers. Outrageous. How dare they!
We’ll…..big Vince at #3
Keep on delivering buddy!
I grew up in Ohio and got into following hockey in the late 80’s – early ’90’s when I was in junior high. My friend followed the Oilers (he’s always followed teams geographically far from Ohio), so I ended up following the Oilers, too. And here I am to this day. He still lives in Ohio and was at the Columbus-Seattle game last night, decked out in Oilers gear as usual. He said during one of the stoppages, Jordan Eberle looks at him, smiles, and gives him a thumbs up. How cool is that?
Haha. Awesome. Thanks for sharing.
Keep hoping Seattle falls apart so we can get a cheap and old Ebs.
If Gagner and Eberle were to win a cup in Edmonton I would weep like a baby, post the video for all to see and share it with pride for the rest of my life.
Deadline Hall too? And he miraculously comes back from injury!
Eberle was always such a class act. Eff you Chiapet.
Hopkins—McDavid-Hyman
McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele
Kane-Holloway-Perry
Janmark-Ryan-Brown
Can play 4 line hockey against any team in the league
Still need a more efficient goal scorer with Drai
If only we had a cost controlled big winger in the system that can take a pass, find the soft spots, goes to the net and has a laser for a shot.
We have Kane. He’s much better than Lavoie. He’s off right now, but he will be back.
The Grand Derrick will arrive.
Equating performance in the AHL to NHL is generally mis-guided.
Chad Kilger was big, fast and had a great shot.
Foegele’s G/60 are better than Kane and Nuge this season….. but, yes, he does struggle to finish.
Foegele play has I’m sure perked up interest by other teams. I would continue to pump and dump as he’s not resigning here as we have no money. If we can make a hockey trade involving Foegele that betters our team I’m all for it.
Would have to be a scoring winger
Or a legit top 4 right D.
i.e. Foegele and one of Ceci/Kulak/Broberg out for above.
No pump and dump. He is an integral part of “cup or bust”.
Like a playoff rental from your own team.
Amazing game.
Skinner has been unreal. I really did not think he was capable of this sort of consistent goaltending. Especially after his start. So happy to be wrong.
In general, I am so happy my early catastrophizing was misguided. Generally, whenever I make definitive statements about the Oilers doom I am wrong. So you are all welcome.
Skinner paid his dues in the minors. i.e. learned to level out the highs and the lows. He had an excellent rookie season. He saved the Oilers season last year as much as anyone, as a rookie goaltender.
Last year, he won the games the team won in front of him, and lost the games, the team lost in front of him. Which is the minimum of what a competent NHL goaltender does. He didn’t win games. He didn’t lose games.
No goaltender could save the games the OIlers were losing in front of their goaltender early this season. The OIlers broke Campbell again and he could not recover. The Oilers tried to break Skinner, but they couldn’t. As soon as the Oilers were half decent in front of him, Skinner began winning the games the OIlers won in front of him, and losing the games the OIlers lost in front of him.
Now we are beginning to see signs of him progressing, with preventing the backbreaking goal, giving the OIlers a second chance to win the game they started off losing.
Right after the game last night, Stauff mentioned the Condors playing Tues and Wed and he thinks that Holloway could be called up for next Saturday.
Of note, the Condors play at 8pm next Saturday, at home, then travel to Ontario for a mid-afternoon game (4pm) the next day – wild schedule.
That’s nuts!
Good observation! There is also a Los Angeles suburb called ‘Ontario’, which is a shorter distance from Bakersfield than the province of Ontario
Night game
2.5 hour bus ride
Day game
Crazy!
Black hole offensively, still, but, truth be told, his work on the PK and 2-way play make his league min cap hit a value contract right now.
The bonus has vested, it hits the Oilers year end cap calculation and will cause an overage that will be applied next season. That is true and that is terrible and a problem.
At the same time, that is locked and done and Brown is currently at $775K – there are two players in the Oilers current lineup that would come out of the lineup before he does – both Erne and Hamblin are less valuable.
There is noone that can come in to the lineup for Brown that makes the team better – ok, MAYBE Holloway but, as per above, there are two other forwards that are less impactful than Brown, in my opinion.
I’m hoping for a Michael Peca type season for Brown where he’s underwhelming offensively during the regular season but a big factor in the playoffs.
That bonus coupled with the Jack Campbell buyout, is that going to be Ken Holland’s swan song?
Woof
More like parting gift.
Hopefully a cup, then all sins are forgiven.
Perhaps a 2024 Stanley Cup parade will be…….
I have a feeling Brown will score a clutch goal in the playoffs and all sins will be forgiven
*fingers crossed
You have now totally jinxed him.
Evan Bouchard… man, what a player!
Just curious, is it just me that’s been yelling at the television for him to shoot more often? I know they need to setup net front presence to screen the goalie for those shots to find their way, but sometimes I feel the 30 seconds of perimeter passing looking for the perfect cross seam pass could be better served with a 98mph blast from the point. I’d like Bouchard to be more selfish in this regard, Hyman’s there, shoot the biscuit!
So happy for this season being saved, literally. Bring on the Leaves…
I would also suggest that the opposing team players are going to hurt blocking 95 mph blasts. Tee it up and blast away.
Less is more with shots from the point. Bouchard is excellent at not overshooting from the point on the powerplay, and shooting at appropriate time.
Nothing will destroy the effectiveness of the OIlers power play more by making it more stationary with more point shots.
Exactly, and gawd forgive if he bobbles one of the passes that results in a breakaway.
When discussing potential line combos this off-season, who had:
Adam Erne / James Hamblin / Phil Kemp
as a line?
Rodolph Fentz.
I believe that Cody Ceci is having a very solid season (I don’t care about his goal total) and that pairing, playing 35% TOI vs. elites without McDavid is a solid 2nd pairing. Darnell Nurse is all but earning his $9.25MM – he’s a top 15 d-man this year.
At the same time, during last night’s game, I see tweets such as:
Its wild that the Oilers are 18-3 over their last 21 and, for some, its not good enough!
Wagon of a team right now.
The DOD irreparably damaged many folks.
But also, twitter is where intelligent life goes to die.
Both are true – sad but true.
Correct on both accounts.
As a guy who comes here for a refuge from the nonsense on social media, I can’t fathom paying such heed to Twatter babble.
Against healthy elite teams, Ceci isn’t good enough, and will be exposed. In a seven game series, he will be targeted, and teams also will seek to exploit Bouchard’s defensive weaknesses. Game planning in the regular season is limited. Not so in the playoffs.
It is an obvious risk to have two defensively challenged top 4 right D.
Tell me more about this defensive weakness of Bouchard please.
Full season, including his first month struggles, have him right at the top of the league for expected goals against. Of course, numbers can only tell us so much but the eye test certainly matches that over the last 2 months.
Playing with McDavid helps.
Cale Makar has spent 70% of this 5 on 5 TOI with BOTH MacKinnon and Rantanen.
Evan Bouchard is real and he is spectacular.
In my opinion he’s not just an elite offensive d-man but is verging on a top 5-10 d-man in the NHL end stop.
He is absolutely not a PP specialist (and never was as some consistently pointed out over the last few years) and he’s not just a product of being on the ice with McDavid – he is a substantial driver of offence and has started to drive offence on a shift by shift basis.
Yes, he plays with McDavid. Well, Cale Makar has spent apx 70% of his 5 on 5 minutes this season with BOTH MacKinnon and Rantanen.
Evan Bouchard does turn over the puck but, right now, I would suggest he touches that puck as much as any d-man in the league – its every shift he’s making plays.
Yes, some passes get picked off but the 5-alarm chances given up off his stick have become few and far between and his “urgency” to recover is up.
To my eye, he is actually high end at defending zone entries, defending the rush and breaking up plays with his stick. His urgency in puck retrieval is no longer an issue.
To be honest, he didn’t have his best 2-way game last night. He did have one pass picked off that almost led to a high danger but there was urgency in recovery and there was a play where he was back-tracking and, just as he caught up to the attacked driving the net, he stopped skating – that was not great.
At the same time, he’s playing big minutes and making positive impactful plays shift after shift.
Wonderful talent!
His ability to know where the puck might exit the zone and prevent it on the pp is exceptional, Barrie taught him well.
You are beginning to sound like HH on QH. One should keep one’s perspective.
Bouchard is offensively gifted and defensively suspect. As long as one can be mostly in attacking offensive mode when he is on the ice, and keep his defending to the mininum, he is an excellent asset. The right tail of Bouchard’s performance is very fat. But the left tail is fat also. One as to actively try to hedge Bouchard’s left tail.
Not worth $11 million per season or more though. Mercifully, the Oilers have the Nurse salary cap for D. Still too much. But Broberg should be affordable for awhile to compensate.
I don’t agree that he is defensively suspect. He is prone to turnovers but most players, forwards included, that touch the puck as much as he does are so prone.
Bouchard is trending elite at defending the zone entry and rush, in my opinion.
It’s my birthday which is always a reminder to me that we are heading into SAD season.
If you are someone that suffers from SAD, or are struggling with imposter syndrome, or maybe you are a creative dealing with the War of Art, or maybe you just can’t shut your damn head up… then may I point you towards a music video that came out about a year ago?
I refrain (pun intended) from posting music on this site, despite it being a running theme here. Music is such an individual, subjective thing and no one’s tastes are the same. And this isn’t exactly a song you can sit and relax to over and over either. But it is a song everyone should hear at least once, because it is both so unusual and so an anthem for mental health. So I’m posting it despite my usual philosophy.
Even if the music is not to your taste, try and stick this one out to the ending. The last bit makes it all worth it, I promise. So here we go… Ladies and Gentlemen, Ren Gill with Hi Ren.
That was all done live, in one take by the way. No autotune. Genuine. As is all his stuff.
Health issues aside the kid is a freaking genius that can innovate with any genre. Here he is doing a haunting duet he wrote, very reminiscent of Jeff Buckley. He busks in Brighton and he and his mates have done everything from Sabbath to Soul. If you like the busking stuff, just search ‘Ren Busking” on Youtube. There’s covers of the Stones, the Doors, Marvin Gaye, Marley, the Police, Nina Simone, Nirvana… a ton of stuff. Or check out his beatbox mashup at 16 yo, done with no samples.
Everyone needs a healthy rabbit hole to explore during SAD season. Hope you enjoy him as much as I do. Happy Slavic New Year’s, y’all.
Happy Birthday!
Connor came so close to greatness… 😉
Happy birthday. On a SAD note, we have gained a half hour since winter solstice… if that helps.
Half hour of daylight that is.
There’s a reason why Reading Week is in February. It’s cumulative. And has a lot to do with people spending more time indoors even when the sun does shine. Because cold.
This isn’t about me. I don’t suffer from it. It’s about the song and those who do or are suffering, for whatever reason.
Counting the extra minutes every day! We’re getting off the flatter part of the curve too, so here soon we’ll gain a little bit faster.
It ain’t getting warmer though! Freaking polar vortex should not be allowed down here.
As someone who struggles with SAD season, I appreciate this post.
Also, happy birthday! All time great LT poster, imo.
Thanks for sharing.
Happy day of birth for you!
Happy birthday!
Happy Birthday!
Holy smokes, that is an awesome performance. I’ll be investigating this guy further. Thanks.
Also, the mental health note is well placed. I don’t like the short days, and that’s down here at 37 degrees latitude, so “I feel your pain”. 🙂
Diet and exercise are critical. Also, like Ren says in that video: “learn to relax”. I struggle with that.
Miss your posts, brother. Nearly teared up seeing your reply.
I’m minimally functional these days. Conservation of energy, or getting old and don’t have the energy. It’s gotta be the first option.
Also, LT banned “a valued member of our community” the other day and I didn’t see any of your posts for a while and thought, “Oh crap, LT banned Munny!” So I was happy to see your recent posts.
Happy Birthday and thanks for sharing that brilliant video.
All the best on your birthday – hope you receive a SAD-lamp as a gift – they really work, and pair well with morning Lowetide!
Oh wow. That video is a spectacular display of creativity, personal courage and burgeoning self awareness. It really puts mental health into a revealing light. We mostly have such a limited and binary view view on the subject, mostly uninformed and judgmental. That is a piece that really makes you think. Thank you for sharing!
I also took the time to watch “Hi Ren”, it is so important that people have understanding what somebody with mental health issues go through, please be kind.
Happy birthday to you. Excellent points on SAD. Good news is that today is the last day (of 48) with < 8 hours of daylight at #yeg’s latitude. Stretches out much moire rapidly from here.
I stumbled upon Ren a couple of months ago, and it literally rocked my world…here’s this incredibly talented young man, nailing exactly what it feels like to be neurodivergent in a way that connected with me like nothing really ever has. Even having listened the Hey Ren dozens and dozens of times, it still gives me goosebumps and puts a knot in my throat. Thank you for bringing it to this forum. He also has an incredible trilogy of interelated songs about Violet…powerful and disturbing. He recently hit number 1 in the UK with his new release, without any promotion or press; in fact he was in Canada getting treatment for his lime disease, I believe. This kid is so incredibly talented…voice of angel, but his rapping is fantastic, and he uses his guitar like a damn weapon; incredible talent.
Thanks for bringing this to the conversation, Munny. It’s also great to see another convert out there…
Oh, and happy birthday!!
*fist bump*
Love that piece. I thought Ren’s “Shakespearean” Tale of Jenny and Screech might be too heavy for here though and I wanted to show the peeps that he had sides other than rap. I can’t believe how multi-talented he is and how much he defies niches.But everything is out there for those who like him and want to hunt down his other stuff. I want to say he’s the Bob Dylan of today, but then again I feel like Dylan songs like I’m Alright Ma are easily as relevant today as they were then. And there’s that other guy, another independent artist who refuses to sign with a label, the one from Virginia that deserves his props too.
I’m wondering if–hoping that–we’re seeing the death of record labels and their forcing of music into boxes of commercial product filled with all the poetry of breakfast cereal.
Happy birthday Munny!
Thanks for sharing. Needed to hear that today.
Happy Birthday to you!
May you have a healthy heart and a wet mouth!
Happy birthday and thanks for sharing.
and thanks for sharing the link to some brilliant art
Congrats to the team for sticking with it these last few games of not their best hockey and claiming the record
And to the coaches for keeping heads together. Let’s see if they can turn the ship back toward their better game. They have more to give
The Good Guys lead the league by 3 points in xGF% and HDCF%. What I see is finishing is an issue again. Lots of shots from good places , not a lot of them great shots
I see them also reverting to a lot of individual efforts, less of the structured attack they had been developing. Which for me is setting up chances that have players in more open places for a shot, and getting the goalie moving
When the opponent is skating hard and plugging up the middle, it has been a tendency for the team to try hard, but not always smarter. Lots of rimming pucks around the O zone, on the outside
For me it should be a priority to find a spot for Ralph next season for sure. They could really use more finish. A pure shooter like Bouch. Or two
I also would like to see them use set plays more. They were, but when things aren’t jiving, they tend to start looking for perfect plays and they get predictable. Holding the puck too long waiting for something to open up, instead of creating a breakdown
Especially the PP. I agree with the comment that yesterday just start having Evan blast shots and create havoc. You could see them looking for Leon, everyone knows they will do that
With some set pieces they can work on that until things start flowing again. Force open looks. Pucks to guys with a second to get the puck up. Move the goalie across. They also have not been doing that, or at least as much, which coincides with the lack of finishing. Maybe they do have them and just aren’t executing. I’m not convinced though
Shouldn’t that say Mick Taylor, LT? Fun fact, I used to take drum lessons from Mick Taylor’s touring drummer. If I was any younger I’d maybe remember some of his stories.
Haha. You’re right and I thank you. Love Mick Taylor. Best era stones and some of the things he did later are brilliant.
The 3rd period was unreal Hockey. I really like Foegle but my god the guy has no scoring touch. Plays hard and the Oil would be nuts to move on from him. As for his next contract, I can’t see a big huge raise.
Skinner was great .
The bottom 6 needs an influx of a 3rd line C man that can drive a line. Looks like they are waiting to give Holloway a shot and then go from that.
Kane is obviously not himself . He wasn’t even hitting much last night. I don’t understand why they don’t sit him out until he gets healthy.
Nice to get the 10 game streak in the books.
Big game on Tuesday against the Leafs . They have lost 2 in a row and gave up a good lead last night. They should be mad and raring to go.
If Foegle wants a big raise it will have to be from another team. He has been quite good this year but the cap challenged Oilers may not be able to afford him next year even at his current pay. Having said that, I like the guy and hope he can stay on the roster next year.
Agreed.
If the Oilers are going to sign Draisaitl and McDavid again, plus sign Bouchard long term, they can’t be paying bottom six wingers or 3rd pairing dmen, 3 million dollars.
Guys like Foegele and Kulak have to be cut loose.
This “bottom 6” winger got promoted to the top 6 at New Jersey, 10 games ago. In that time he’s posted 3-7-10, +9 with all of his points at even strength.
Meanwhile his team has gone 10-0-0 during that same stretch.
Worthy of a little praise in my view.
Agree with this.
Aging vets need to be replaced with emerging prospects in due course. That’s top teams stay at the top for periods of time.
The likes of Kulak and Foegele need to be replaced with the likes of Borberg and Holloway.
Foegele makes the most of what he has. I’m not sure it’s a good idea to sign him though. He isn’t a regular on PK, as you said he doesn’t have great hands at the NHL level. I find he stalls a lot of plays with poor placement or bobbles
He is a fast forechecker, but I’m not convinced he’s good enough at creating off of it. He’s also iffy on the boards, which Bruce Curlock also thinks, so it’s not just my take
Seems like a place to find an improvement in quality of play and some cap savings. Use the young fellas!
Yeah, agreed.
I like McLovin plenty, he adds an element of speed and opens up space for his teammates when he’s on his game. But I don’t (lovingly) call him Warren Fumble for no reason.
I’d like to see him win the Cup with us this year, but if they can use him to trade up (for a Haula/Tuch/W. Karlsson type, not necessarily them but someone stylistically similar and with better hands than Foegele) then they should probably do it. He’s unlikely to resign due to AAV and cap space, so might as well leverage his fine work into the best player possible.
On the other hand, he does have chemistry with Leon and Highlander, so there’s always that to consider.
Foegele doesn’t have great hands or finishing but damn if he’s not all over the puck and creates, and creates, and creates – He is 4th on the team in G/60 at 5 on 5 (better than Nuge and Kane). I think his next contract is likely in the range of the current unless he gets on overpay in free agency.
I’m not sure if Holloway will get the 3C shot, that might go to McLeod who may be more of a driver now that he’s got more confidance.
Either way, adding Holloway to the middle six, in whatever role, will boost speed and engery and should boost skill and depth.
after the crappy start the team has been beyond amazing. I’m not sure what deadline moves can/will be made. Wonder if Perry would play here
I thought the Habs did enough in the first two periods to hang in and make Edmonton look less skilled: So many sticks in lanes I thought each player had one in each hand at times. But I thought again in the third the Oilers’ skill took over. Given the need for a goal it resulted in a very exciting period of hockey, but the better team won.
Fighting through these kinds of games seems to me as important as blowing a team out.
.790 gets Edmonton to 115
.794 gets Vegas to 115
Remarkable.
The Habs were indeed doing their level best to beat the Oilers.
Sorry LT it was an ugly game. Habs looking like the Italian national soccer team out there (this is a compliment).
League sure lets the opposition clutch and grab like it was a 90s retro party.
PP was stale. Those kind of nights it should have been Bouch bombs all night until something opens up. Not for nothing did he kill one off the post earlier.
You don’t need to be sorry. Disagreeing isn’t a bad thing, and certainly doesn’t mean an apology is in order.
I was thinking the same thing with regards to the Power play…in games like that the Bouch bomb should be the first, second and third priority…it will soften up the pkers, and the goalie, and open up lanes….we have a zone entry cheat code so why not?
You have to give the Habs credit. They played the kind of game they needed to play to defeat the Oilers. Also, you have to give the Oilers credit for remaining patient and sticking to it to pull out the victory. If not for that high sticking penalty who knows what might have happened. But they still had to execute on the PP in OT, in the clutch.
It might also kill Hyman.
Having watched all of 3 minutes of AHL farm team action in my entire life, it’s easy to see that the AHLers are starting to play like the NHLers. Some of them even looked pretty NHL ready.
One feature of the Lowe+MacT era was how clueless that duo was when attempting to run the franchise – clearly having no idea what to do with the farm team which rarely if ever graduated anyone worthy of mention.
Until one of the more erudite posters sets me straight as to the actual truth – I’ll assume it’s another function of the Coffey/Knobby era.
Biggest change with the farm team I noticed was with Chia. One of the few things he did to help the organization.
Tambellini fixed the farm system. Considering Nelson didn’t get any first rounders, he put a lot of players into the NHL, even previously failed prospects like McDonald and Chorney.
Lowe and MacT were good before the 2006 finals. And lost their minds after the 2006 finals.
The farm system was fine before 2006. It produced backup goaltenders. Greene, Stoll, Horcoff, PIsani, Chimera, Brodziak, Bergeron,
Once they had Katz’s money and a cap, they lost interest in the farm team and how it was run.
Kane Holloway and Lavoie would be a boatload for the opposition to handle after hitting them with McDavid and Draisaitl.
I doubt that the Oilers have the room to afford Foegele next year. (On a one year deal, maybe). These are the guys that have to be rotated out, and find a younger cheaper version bubbling up from the farm, somebody else’s farm, or lurking in the bottom of other NHL team’s rosters.
Bruce Curlock seeing Holloway good at C. His IQ speed and assertiveness unsurprisingly works in the middle
Also further away from those nasty boards!
Kane / Holloway/Perry even better .
DH would have to wait for them to catch up!
Foegele looks happy in Edmonton.
As people always remind me when I suggest Draisaitl might sign a one year contract to play with 97, no way is Foege going to risk his career on a one year contract. Hogwash!
Prospecties!
The spotlight shines solely on Stonehouse as the 67’s conclude a 3-in-3. Three more SOG yesterday yielded nothing but he did draw a twain of helpers. He gets the chance to get off the schneid when the puck drops @ noon Cline River time.