Game 40: Maple Leafs at Oilers

by Lowetide

I wrote the item above in February of 2017. Jordan Eberle would be traded four months later. Edmonton hasn’t done well in replacing him via the draft and development route, and Zach Hyman needs some help on the right side. Is that player in the organization right now?

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
  • Actual January results: 5-0-0, 10 points in 5 games
  • Oilers in 2023-24: 23-15-1, 47 points in 39 games

I have tonight as a loss. I also had Montreal as a loss so what do I know? The next three games represent the toughest opposition this month. If the Oilers can win two of three, it’s possible the club finishes the month with nine wins. That would be a monster and I do think management may be gearing up for a busy transaction period leading up to the deadline.

THE OILERS AND CONDORS WINGERS

  • Zach Hyman (38, 26-16-42). An absolute treasure. I remember Kyle Dubas trying very hard to retain him before free agency, and we’ve seen why since Hyman arrived in Edmonton. If there was an expansion draft tomorrow, I think he’s the fourth name written down by Holland on the protected list.
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (39, 11-27-38). He’s a cerebral player and appears to have developed offensively later in his career. It’s a splendid development and I do believe this current contract is delivering more value than the last one, at least so far.
  • Evander Kane (38, 14-11-25). He is not at his peak level due to injury and one suspects a little behind in terms of conditioning after all of the time off. Kane is 32, so recovery is going to take a little longer than it did five years ago. As long as he’s full tilt boogie come playoff time, all is well.
  • Warren Foegele (39, 7-14-21). I think he is a player the organization values highly. He is about to price himself out of the Oilers price range. I think the organization will have a difficult time walking him but can’t see a way to get a contract (outside of a one-year deal) completed.
  • The Oilers roster issue on the wings surrounds a lack of young, inexpensive players pushing for NHL time. It may well be that Raphael Lavoie, Dylan Holloway and others should get a look, but the organization isn’t convinced. For that reason, I suspect we’ll see Corey Perry play a game for the Oilers soon.
  • Edmonton spent much of the early portion of the season with a No. 1 line, a No. 2 line and two fourth lines. When the top two lines are performing at peak levels, then the depth lines can get away with suppressing opposition scoring while also not scoring at all. Right now, that’s working. Edmonton needs wingers beyond Hyman, Nuge, Kane and Foegele who can perform.
  • Ryan McLeod (38, 7-9-16). His move to the wing is a recent item and I suspect we’ll see him in the middle as time goes by. Still, new coaches see things differently than the last guy and perhaps Kris Knoblauch sees McLeod’s speed as being more effective on the wing. I do think he can hit 40 points in an NHL season. I also think he will be the ask in some deadline deals.
  • Sam Gagner (18, 4-5-9). He is on a terrific pace offensively but currently out with injury and we don’t know about his return. If he is in the lineup, the line he plays on has more substantial offensive potential than the norm. Utility skill forwards go back forever, hell Toe Blake used Yvan Cournoyer as a spot offense winger in the 1960’s. Gagner is a valuable piece.
  • Derek Ryan (39, 3-5-8). Also plays center. His offensive output is off this season (he scored 13 times a year ago) and his TOI per game has been reduced for the last five seasons in a row. He still wins faceoffs, doesn’t take as many. He might not be an every game performer in the playoffs, but is a PK regular.
  • Mattias Janmark (29, 1-4-5). Like Ryan, his offense is off this season (scored 10 one year ago) but he’s a staple on the PK. Both men are below 50 percent at five-on-five outscoring, so Holland may be looking to upgrade one of the positions at the deadline.
  • Connor Brown (32, 0-3-3). It has not gone well. He may not be on the playoff roster. Brown’s PK work has been good, and his five-on-five outscoring away from Evander Kane is 50 percent. That’s the same story for Kane. Unlike Kane, Brown has been unable to hit the ocean offensively this season. It has to change, but will it be enough?
  • Drake Caggiula (19, 5-15-20). He delayed his takeoff this season because of injury, and there was some outscoring wobble, but Caggiula is noticeable offensively in Bakersfield. He isn’t a strong recall option, but does lead the Condors in points.
  • Seth Griffith (24, 4-15-19). He has nine even-strength points in 24 games, while AHL contract Cameron Wright has posted 11 in 18. Griffith’s even-strength goal share is 10-22. He is not the player he was even last year, and he was fading at that time. I don’t see a recall.
  • Raphael Lavoie (22, 11-7-18). He’s a real goal-scorer in the AHL, and should be able to contribute in the NHL. Lavoie has had two NHL auditions so far this season, looked better in the second one. I think he’s a good match for need in Edmonton, wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a few more games with the Oilers before the season ends. Based on the team’s extreme lack of youth coming through, it would behoove management to give him every change to make the team in the fall.
  • Cameron Wright (18, 6-5-11). AHL contract and a bull out there for Bakersfield. Inexplicably (I couldn’t find an injury) he didn’t play this past weekend. Wright is 25, he isn’t a prospect, but in the grand tradition of Frank St. Marseille the Oilers may have found one here. If a player is outperforming the prospects, sign that man. Have a look at the even strength points-per-game totals below.
  • Xavier Bourgault (28, 4-7-11). A wildly disappointing season from the 2021 first-round pick. He still draws penalties and is a good checker, but is just 1-2-3 in his last 10 games. His shots-per-game has increased lately (14 shots in his last five games, including seven in one game) but this is not good enough. His even-strength goal share (14-15) is well off last year’s team leading total (37-25, 60 pct).
  • Carter Savoie (26, 2-7-9). Some encouraging signs from this winger, who recently posted 2-5-7 in a 10-game run. He’s finding the range and showing well as a playmaker, with the quick release still in evidence (and not yet finding the range). He is 9-5 goals at even strength, an impressive total.
  • Tyler Tullio (14, 2-4-6). As is the case with Bourgault, Tullio is not building on last season. Unlike Bourgault, who the coaching staff has to play because he’s a first-round pick, Tullio has seen spot duty at times and has been benched in recent games. I think he’s worth a regular roster spot, but any thought of an NHL recall is a distant bell.
  • Matvey Petrov (19, 2-1-3). He has shown flashes, but they are too few at this time. He needs to shoot more, just 16 shots in 19 games. He is 8-4 goals at even strength, a quality total.
  • Dylan Holloway (2, 1-1-2). He is being used as a center at this time in the AHL, and is apparently close to recall. He has an NHL future and I think the games this week should give him a chance to post some crooked offensive numbers. Edmonton needs him to be an actual NHL player and right soon!

POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT PLAYOFF ROSTER

  • Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
  • Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele
  • Barabanov-McLeod-Perry
  • Maroon-Holloway-Gagner
  • Hamblin, Janmark
  • Ekholm-Bouchard
  • Nurse-Walker
  • Kulak-Desharnais
  • Broberg
  • Skinner, Reimer

A busy show, noon to 2pm today on Sports 1440. Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join us to talk about the Oilers 10-game winning streak and what fans should expect in the second half of the season. We’ll also talk NFL playoffs and CFL free agency. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.

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hunter1909

Black comedy gold over at HF Boards Toronto Maple Leafs post game comments.

Almost DoD levels of realization that their team simply blows out of its arse and their “stars” are little more than weak, entitled losers.

Basically comments on par with the Steve Austin era.

Tarkus

With inflation, the Leaves now have Ten Million Dollar Men, led by Steve Auston.

pixel-bender

Great game. The Oilers deserved the win against a talented team desperate for the win.

That the Leafs blew another third period lead was just the icing on the cake.

Did anyone watch the Leafs’ broadcast on TSN? Did Jeff O’Neil cry? It would’ve just wonderful if he cried…

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I did, and he surprisingly admitted candidly that Connor is the best player on Earth.

flea

Caught most of the first (missed the start), the end of the second (turned it on as Draisailt scored) and the third. In those segments, the Oilers were the better team by a long shot. Toronto had their moments for sure but the Oilers sustained more pressure and held the puck significantly more by eye. As good as they’ve been in these last two games, I also think they’ve been a little snakebit offensively, which is weird to say when they are all wins. They are due for a big game offensively. I know they have ran up the score on the Kraken a few times, maybe they do it again on Thursday.

Honorable mention to Stu Skinner who made some big saves when he needed to. I didn’t see either Leafs goal!

Mayan Oil

What would make me smile would be if the Kings and the Kniggits continue to fade and are caught by the Flames and/or Kraken. It would be pretty sweet if they both missed the playoffs and we got another Battle of Alberta series… would also mean that 5 of 7 Canadian teams make the playoffs. WE could then face a Canadian opponent each round to the Cup potentially. THAT would be amazing! Calgary, Vancouver, possibly Winnipeg and Toronto. Bettman’s head would explode and it would be one for the history books…

Foege Foegele Torpe

Doesn’t look like TOR is making the playoffs

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Easiest way to not make a traditional first round exit, is to not make the playoffs.

dustrock

LT sorry for cursing but I just can’t help it with Toronto eat shit Leafs fans, hope you win a single playoff series at some point

smellyglove

But Oilers can’t win against teams ahead of them in the standings.

ekcomb 2.0

Oil are not very good at leaving teams ahead of them:

Oil 613
Laffa .595

ekcomb 2.0

Oil now 3rd in Pacific by pts%

Oil .613
Kings .610

hunter1909

Hunter 1909’s Terrifying Prediction for the run up to the All Star Break:

Prediction: Oilers shock us by keeping their focus to win 4 out of 5 games.

home: Seattle: Good game ahead with other Division up and comer of 2024. But Oilers are too good.

away: Calgary: They must be happy to lose 4-2 instead of a blowout. Otherwise they will get splattered all over the windshield like grasshoppers in Drayton Valley.

home: Columbus: Oilers show up and it’s a miracle if Blue Jackets win this. Maybe Johnny Gudreau puts on a clinic lol

home: Chicago: AHL team automatic as a 2 pointer on this board as it gets.

home: Nashville: I reckon Oilers will lose one, and this looks like it.

Overall prediction: 4-1 Goes into All Star break like village burners.

Last edited 3 months ago by hunter1909
Mayan Oil

If we manage to run the table to the AllStar Break, we come back to face Vegas on the road with a chance to tie the league record 17 game win streak held by the Pens… just sayin’…

Last edited 3 months ago by Mayan Oil
Admiral Ackbar

Eat $hit Leafs and your clown fans chanting in our barn! I hope the Oil faithful gave them a good humiliating rubbing on the way out. Scumbags!!

How is the TO media going to spin this one into Leafs are just on the cusp of something?

GOILERS!

hunter1909

They’re just on the cusp – of imploding.

Last edited 3 months ago by hunter1909
Side

I feel like if Woody were coaching, he would have resisted putting Draisaitl and McDavid together when it was 1-0, but once it was 2-0 he would have put them together and played them a lot trying to catch up.

Knobby seems to resist the urge and knows how to push the buttons when getting lines rolling. I can’t imagine seeing a McDavid screen for a McLeod GWG under Woody.

Has to do wonders for the forwards confidence overall when the coach isn’t signalling to the team that he needs Drai/McDavid to save the game.

flea

One of the comments about Knoblauch (when he was hired) was that he was able to read the game and the moments really well. He definitely has delivered that in spades so far. Incredible run by this team and their coach. Knobluach should be getting some Jack Adams consideration at this point in the season.

Mayan Oil

I think that game was the most fun I have ever had with my clothes on…

Munny 2.0

Tough call on how to split the netminding starts these next two games. Oil really need the points against the Krakheads, but I’d like to see Skins get a break too after tonight’s emotional affair.

Zelepukin

kind of no easy contest here on in. Everyone is going to be gunning, especially Seattle and Calgary now. Pics is solid though, I’d play him next.

Munny 2.0

KK non-komittal on the next start. Did say the original plan was for Skins to get a significant amount of starts in January due to ease of sked. But also said they would reevaluate after seeing him in practice and talking to him. so next start technically undecided at this point.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Don’t want to go full Keenan here, but I’d actually ride SkinDaddy as the hot hand until he shows signs of fatigue. This month’s schedule is the perfect time to roll with him, given the play every other day for three and take two off. It comes really close to mirroring a playoff series, in frequency of games. Could be useful conditioning prep for Skinner, as much as the rest of the gang.

To me, the opportune spot to ease Picard in is against CBJ or CHI, unless Stuart needs a recess prior to the All Star break.

hunter1909

4 points by the defence;

Ryan and McLeod 3 points;

Draisaitl and McDavid 2 points: generously stepping aside to let the grinders shine against the sophisticated but seemingly unable to grind it out for 60 minutes Leafs.

Last edited 3 months ago by hunter1909
OriginalPouzar

Scungilli Slushy

 Reply to  jp

 January 16, 2024 9:10 pm

Did you look at the last playoff series GF% ?

I did a week or so ago and commented here. Leading scorer and in the tank by GF %

Did I get that wrong?

Leon was 14-11 at 5 on 5 in last year’s playoffs (and 23-18 the prior season)……

Yes, you got that wrong.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

What about the last series, against the VGK, which is what the quote specifies?

Did you look at the last playoff series GF% ?

Scungilli Slushy

Thank you

Munny 2.0

Can we now call all the Toronto media comparisons between McDavid and Matthews ExhAustin bullshit?

BornInAGretzkyJersey

I think we could (and did) say that, definitively, in 2019-20 when Draisaitl won the Hart.

Because, up to that point the actual argument was who was a better player between Matthews and Draisaitl. After that, it wasn’t in doubt.

Ice Sage

Bah, they’ll say he went 1-1-2 vs McD’s 0-1-1… but I’ll remember AM34 flinching out of the way from McLeod’s shot… like he knew the second-hand role he’s playing?

McNuge93

Over the last couple of years since the Oilers had some success in the playoffs and McD putting up crazy numbers I’ve seen them accept McD as better. Particularly on TSN Overdrive. Frankly their media has been somewhat negative on the Leafs after their playoff non-successes.

hunter1909

As soon as Oilers tied Leafs wilted like hothouse flowers.

Until then it was a whale of a game.

Kane taking the puck end to end near the end of the game was a sight to behold. One day he will be healthier and go back to his early season excellence.

Who was the Oiler that got pasted against the boards in the 3rd? And who was the Leaf that did it?

giddy

Those legs by Kane were unlike anything I’ve seen by him in awhile.

Was Hyman, think it was McCabe who hit him.

hunter1909

Kane is the kind of player that you don’t want to depend on, but when you least expect he comes up with huge goals. And he scares the shit out of the opposition like the schoolyard bully. In that way he’s like Georges Laraque, but with scoring ability lmao

kgo

I agree with the premise that Kane is an Elite support player, but shouldn’t be depended upon to drive offense.

I disagree with Laraque as comparison. 22 out of 23 players weren’t legitimately scared of Laraque, in fact they were probably happy when he came over the boards…22 of 23 opponents could out-skate him, usually out chance him, and generally avoid his crushing bodychecks.

BUT….1 out of 23 players was the other team’s tough guy…and no doubt he would lose sleep for days and weeks ahead of that game knowing he might have to square off against Big Georges…I don’t envy that position regardless of the million or two they put in the bank.

GEORGES, IF YOU’RE READING THIS… I have a story for you. I was visiting my best buddy in MTL during the All-star game of 2009, he lived near the core or Rue St. Something. I was on the same flight as Sourray, Brown, and a bunch of other lads and their wives from LA to MTL so the party started early.

After settling in to my buddies place, I decided I needed a fresh haircut before attending the festivities, he mentioned a barber shop on the corner 30 seconds away.

I strolled into the establishment, spoke with the guy at reception, he was happy to take a walk-in cut and pointed me to his colleague’s chair. By the time I was approaching the chair to sit down, I realized that all 4 barbers, their customers, the receptionist and the 3 guys bantering in the corner were all black guys.

I’m not a guy who generally sees race but as a young man from south Edmonton, I had never been the only white guy in a room with 11 black guys. Also, I realized that culturally a black barber shop might be a very foreign place for me.

After suppressing a millisecond of fear from my tribal lizard brain, I sat down, and within 10 seconds was having a casual conversation and was comfortable in my surroundings.

I speak French fluently thanks to Greenfield Elementary school off 34th ave so I won some quick brownie points with the lads there…in conversation it came up that I was visiting for the all-star game, was from Edmonton and a Die Hard Oilers fan. As soon as I mentioned the Oilers one of the guys mentioned Georges Laraque. It turns out a few of the staff were related and children of Haitian immigrants as was Georges, so naturally they LOVED this guy back in his Oiler days and were stoked that he recently signed as a HAB.

Here’s the kicker…I mentioned something like “well you guys must have loved it when Big Georges got his hat trick against LA a few years ago”

The room went dead silent, I thought I said something wrong….they thought I was messing with them. Half the room was engaged in this convo and they all called bullshit on me….I barked at receptionist sitting on the computer (this was before we could check the computers in our pocket)

I forget the receptionist’s name now but I knew it in the moment, as Rogan would say “Hey Jaime, google Georges Laraque Hat Trick”

My barber immediately put down his shears and went to look over “Jaime’s” shoulder.

The room erupted, these guys were ecstatic, pulling up videos and watching replay after replay. It must have been 10 minutes before my haircut resumed.

When it did resume, I was royalty….in the end, my barber tried to comp my cut….I insisted on paying and tipping large….he reciprocated by telling me he was a bartender at a nearby Club, that he would put my name on the list and buy me a drink.

Fast forward to midnight that night, we made our way to this club…I literally smoked 3 cigs outside tugging on my ears trying to recall my barber’s obscure French/Haitian name from my rye soaked brain….it finally clicked, I chucked the cig, me and a few pals and gals dodged the line and name dropped my guy to the bouncer. They ushered us inside, buddy spotted me walking in, as I reached out my hand for a handshake, I realized his hands were full, he had a bottle of Grey goose in his left, and slid 5 glasses to me with his right.

I blacked out shortly thereafter,

Thank you Georges, 9 years after your hat-trick you brought immense joy to a bunch of strangers.

Mayan Oil

If we get to OT vs Seattle we are third in the division as we have the tie breaker on LA… If we win we are second as we have the tiebreaker on Vegas… Whoda thunk it a month ago?

Dee Dee

From Bums to Bona fide!!

McNuge93

Will not happen. Reliable sources had the top three positions locked up several weeks ago.

OriginalPouzar

They’d still be 4 points back of Vegas – yes, ahead by points percentage but still 4 standings points back (3 games in hand).

Sierra

Excellent game of hockey. Both goalies had good games. Skinner was very solid and deserves full credits for the win, again.

OriginalPouzar

True but Jones broke.

If this was reversed, we’d be talking ALOT about the weak backhand goal against.

Skinner was the better goalie on the night as he didn’t let in a weak goal.

Ice Sage

Koach K has the Midas touch right now – putting McLeod on with McD after that icing is Klima-esque level deployment.
It feels so weird to cheer for a dominant team.

jp

Folks.

That really was fun.

I said a few days ago I kinda wanted the Oilers to lose against Detroit or Montreal so they wouldn’t have to lose against the Leafs.

Well, they proved me wrong. Beat all 3 of them.

I’m pretty impressed right now.

Munny 2.0

Thanks for that last reply early this morning on the prior thread, JP. I did get to read it before the game. *tips hat*

BornInAGretzkyJersey

BornInAGretzkyJersey

 Reply to  Chelios is a Dinosaur

 January 16, 2024 5:52 pm

My word you folks seem to pay a lot of attention to the Leafs.

I burn nary a calorie thinking of them. They hardly exist.

We’re going to embarrass them tonight, and that’s all there is to it.

Don’t look now, but the Laffs drop another game where they had a multi-goal lead. Not surprisingly, it’s kind of their thing.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Completely satisfied … high calorie hockey dessert 🍨 🏒 what a game.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Bouchard with a 1-1-2 +1

A very nice “love you Godot 😍” game.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

He had his vapour lock moment on the Matthews goal early, and got it out of his system with plenty of time to recover.

kgo

It’s funny how often Dmen will point at a threat as if to call in coverage, only to realize THEY in fact should be the coverage!

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Very satisfying game. Yay!

Chief Inspector

So satisfying…also winning some money from my Toronto friends is the icing on the cake.

Munny 2.0

The streak continues!! Play La freakin Bamba. This win might be the most Captain-y we have ever seen McDavid in the regular season.

giddy

Satisfying.

delooper

I didn’t think the Oilers would pull this one off.

godot10

In the end, the Underpants were soiled again.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Very much so also in photo on the GWG.

Baited by Connor into screening his own goalie, he was.

Genjutsu

Yoda voice?

OriginalPouzar

Stuart Skinner was massive in this hockey game – 1st start for me.

Chief Inspector

Rock solid indeed.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Pretty loud in that barn, for half a crowd.

KnightRain

I love this movie. On repeat. The ending is the best…

Prairie_Sentinel

Gotta give Skinner some mad props tonight, he’s battled his ass off

Ice Sage

Both goalies were very good.

OriginalPouzar

Jones was good but the first goal against on him was awful and that allowed the Oilers back in the game.

Ice Sage

The Bouch-lob!

BornInAGretzkyJersey

The most geriatric Bouch Bomb I’ve ever seen.

fishman

There are few things sweeter than beating the Leafs!!!!!

jp

That was definitely one of my top EN goals ever!

Mayan Oil

A bouch bobble!

GB&Q

Bouch with the perfect draw weight!

Munny 2.0

Were you all yelling at puck to go go go go go go go too?

Mayan Oil

I was yelling sweeeep….

Moonlight

Hurry hard!!!

delooper

Contender for the lowest-velocity empty net goal in history.

OriginalPouzar

That’s the best empty net goal like ever.

fishman

Thank you empty net Gods!!!!!!!!!

Prairie_Sentinel

Hack weight for the insurance goal from Old Man Bouch!

GB&Q

McLeod a beast tonight.

Ice Sage

LT pines for a TML Oil SCF, and after this display, I agree!*

*with Oil winning of course

oilinthepeg

Damn. Well coached game! Some clutch line combos tonight!!!

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Amazing shift by McD.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Obviously, great shot by McLeod

Munny 2.0

Amazing two shifts in one

Ice Sage

34 with a front row view of that top corner

Scungilli Slushy

Pure beauty Highlander

oilinthepeg

YES!!!!!! AMAZING!!! WOOOOOT!

Chief Inspector

Ah our old friend Steve Kozari