The Oilers are not playing sharp hockey, but they are winning games. A club that usually plays up and down according to roster quality of the opposition is playing just well enough to win these days. You can point to all kinds of issues, including the death ray of dangerous fancy passes. It’s difficult to be taken seriously when the Oilers have won 15 games in a row. No one cares! 15 wins in a row! Fans say worry about it tomorrow. Who can blame them?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnaisβ next contract could be bigger than expected
- New DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: βWe got a lot more in our groupβ
- Lowetide:Β Why Oilers forwardΒ Sam GagnerΒ is having success in his role
- DNB:Β Stuart Skinnerβs superb playΒ should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- DNB: Why OilersΒ signing Corey PerryΒ isnβt a surprise β even in these circumstances
- Lowetide:Β How theΒ Oilers winning the Stanley Cup in 2024Β could impact future
- Lowetide:Β The Edmonton OilersβΒ 6 biggest 2023-24 first half surprises
- DNB:Β OilersΒ win 13th straight, most by Canadian team in NHL history
- Lowetide: 5 AHL Oilers prospects withΒ the most valueΒ ahead of NHL trade deadline
- DNB:Β Edmonton OilersΒ midseason report cards
- Lowetide:Β Revisiting OilersβΒ Dylan HollowayΒ pick at the 2020 NHL Draft
- DNB:Β Oilers are backΒ as a Western Conference power
- DNB:Β Projecting the Oilersβ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with aΒ Leon Draisaitl extension
- Lowetide:Β Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken HollandβsΒ 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton OilersΒ top 20 prospectsΒ ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 10-0-0, 20 points in 10 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 28-15-1, 57 points in 44 games
It’s beyond the blue horizon now, we’re bordering on farce and the rarified air makes it hard to make sense of what is happening in real time. We’ll look back on this time with wonder. It really is something special.
THE NUMBERS
Calvin Pickard played well, got the shutout and now boasts a .915 save percentage at both five-on-five and in all strengths. I look at the list of readily available goaltenders and wonder aloud (the dog concurs) if there’s a stopper out there worth pursuing. It’s a dilemma, but a good one.
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci are 31-25 goals (55 percent) together this season. There is some chaos in their collective, but they play tough minutes and often without McDavid. Puck IQ, the single greatest publicly available website in the world (followed closely by The Hockey News archive) shows Nurse against elites: without McDavid (in 163 minutes) is the owner of a 52 percent Dangerous Fenwick (smart Corsi, brother to Expected Goals). He is 62.7 percent with McDavid. The Oilers are good. This is a reflection of it. Note: Anything less than 200 minutes needs to be viewed with a Spockian eyebrow (credit: Dave Jamieson) but we’re almost there and looking good.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard are 35-25 together (58 percent) and are delivering ridiculous quality. Bouchard without McDavid (in 77 minutes) is 67 percent Dangerous Fenwick and that is stunning. What a terrific total. Now, small sample, but with McDavid he is 68 percent DFF in 145 minutes so the guy is delivering massive units of whole goodness. This is fantastic. If this holds, he is going to cost many millions and the Oilers will need to decide between he and Nurse. I’ve said it before, now even more certain. Holy hell. We need to see more samples but that’s searing hockey.
Connor McDavid’s five-on-five expected goal share is 62.71, best of his career (via Natural Stat Trick). The top three expected goal shares this season among forwards are Nuge, Hyman and McDavid. Music! Now, here’s the kicker. Ryan McLeod is No. 17 and Warren Foegele No. 18. Leon Draisaitl is No. 24. (source)
On defense, Bouchard, Ekholm and Kulak are 1-2-3 (500+ minutes) overall in the NHL. Vincent Desharnais is No. 6, Darnell Nurse No. 53 and Cody Ceci No. 63. (Source).
Since November 24, Stuart Skinner owns a save percentage (all strengths) of .933, second only to Connor Hellebuyck.
What’s beyond this? Stanley! No doubt followed by peals of thunder, rumblings, flashes of lightning, and an earthquake.
It’s Friday on the Lowdown! Noon to 2, we’ll get you set for a big weekend in Oil Country. Can the Oilers win January? Plus the Condors play twice and the NFL figures everything out. Steve Lansky and Tyler Yaremchuk will join us, and Declan Krueger will have Declanations. Please follow my friend Declan on twitter (at DeclanKrueger) he’s a good chap. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Bed before OT but Lavoie with the OT PP winner on the cross seam one-timer (Griffith with the pass).
Kings lose 5 – 1 to Colorado.
Danault -3
PLD 0 points
Team leading 2 hits for PLD though⦠really stepped up to the challenge his coach issued.
Missed the two ABB goals.
Savoie rips one over the net, Petrov, in 99’s office, takes his time, wait, feeds Pederson sneaking in who buries the 2-2 goal.
Lavoie wins a battle to pick a dump off the offensive zone half wall, powers by, goes behind the net, come out the circles, spins and wrists one home for a 3-2 lead.
Summarizing!
Day got back in the win column, stopping 24 of 26 in a 3-2 victory.
Mazura, Copponi and MΓΌnzenberger (!) each procured an apple.
Lachance and MÀÀttÀ were not recipients of soup. They shall have to content themselves with unpeeled garlic instead.
Here’s a silly question, I haven’t dug into this too much. Philly is in bad spot with Carter Hart, and are using Cal Peterson as an emergency recall at a 5m cap hit. Would they be interested in a swap of Peterson for Campbell? If we can convince them that Jack has recovered he is superior to Peterson when you get good Jack. Peterson has only one year after this one so if we decided to buy him out it would be less of a hit – 2 yrs instead of 6. Does any of this make sense?
I may be clutching at straws, but there it is…
Also Peterson may be more tradeable in the offseason as well if the opportunity presents itself. If not traded or bought out, he is only one more year as a security blanket for Stu.
Peterson could be traded with salary retained if we wanted to go in a different direction after the end of season and still improve our cap position from what it is currently. Just how desperate is Philly right now and can we sell Campbell on his recent heater in the AHL. If they will buy the story that he has recovered his game, it can be presented that he gives three years of cover for their other young goalies to progress…
Campbell just made a Hasek-like pad stack save off a point blank PP chance.
Griffith and Borberg with ALOT of puck touches and movement on PP1 and at the end of a full 2 minute o-zone PP shift, Broberg finds Grifith activating towards the middle who dishes to Pederson for the 1-timer goa.
Broberg with a couple of high skill keeps ins where he ended up spinning and walking the line back to center with grace and skill.
Broberg:
https://twitter.com/bcurlock/status/1751085367489658929
High end skill indeed.
Mike Griffith
@MikeGriffith54
Β·
6m
Lines for @Condors
vs Abbotsford (McKegg is the extra vet out):
Caggiula-Pederson-Bougault
Lavoie-Hamblin-Griffith
Erne-Malone-Tullio
Savoie-Grubbe-Petrov
Broberg-Gleason
Peters-Wanner
Niemelainen-Hoefenmayer
ο»ΏCampbell
Savoie-Grubbe-Petrov have become a good line – they’ve gained lots of traction recently
38 games left, anything can happen, but it would be surprising if the Oilers and Knight were not 1st round opponents..
Kemp back to the Condors.
I love the fact that management is all over day to day cap structuring moves.
Bill Scott finally shows a pulse.
Id be very curious to know what the Oilers record is βWhen the Rubber hits the roadβ?
We will find out soon.
Youβre adorbs.
Does the rubber, and by that I mean goal posts, ever hit the road, and by that I mean stay in one place long enough to find out?
17 players nominated for the Hobey Baker Award in the NCAA.
Of noteβ¦former Sherwood Park Crusader Ty Mueller among them.
https://nchchockey.com/news/2024/1/26/mens-ice-hockey-17-nchc-student-athletes-nominated-for-2024-hobey-baker-award.aspx
BU is playing on TSN if anyone wants to watch LaChance (and some dude that might be drafted high in the draft this spring).
Colorado signs Zack Parise to a one year contract.
All Star break Poll:
Oilers win tomorrow: press thumbs up
Oilers lose tomorrow: press thumbs down
The 2nd-longest current winning streak is just three games, held by two teams. One of them is dead last (SJ).
Post Leafs, I hoped the team to go 4-0 during their next 4 games – then lose against Nashville.
Now, Oilers need to beat Nashville and leave my prediction in the dust.
Edmonton Oilers hockey in 2024 continues to amaze, astonish, entertain.
I can’t find fault in them.
The problem with trading Nurse to make room for Bouchard (or for any other reason) is that you then have to find a durable top 4 Dman who plays a ton of minutes against the toughest opposition and comes out in the black, as well as putting up a lot of 5v5 points. There aren’t a lot of those guys around and available.
When St Louis decided not to resign Pietrangelo the best replacement they could find on the open market was Krug – who was cheaper…but not nearly as good.
IMO the way to find the money for Bouchard (and Drai, McDavid etc.) is by not paying good young players like Foegele, Desharnais and McCloud when they start to get expensive. It’s a hell of a lot easier to replace what they bring to the team with a free agent vet or a young prospect than it would be to replace what Nurse does.
It’s worth rememberiing that now the Oilers are good, the motto is not ‘Get good players. Keep good players.’
It’s ‘Get good players. When they want to get paid, replace with cheaper (hopefully good) players.’
Right now the defence has sorted itself out, internally.
From this template Nurse can be traded, but who in their right mind wants to?
Nurse has a NMC until June 2027 when he has to submit a 10 team trade list.
He could easily name 10 teams that have no interest or cap space to acquire him.
Huh?
Interesting. I thought everyone was trying to leave Edmonton.
If only you realized how irrelevant you are.
Keep trying though.
IF Brown finished the year 9-12 goals that would solve alot of issues in the play-offs.
We may want to invest TOI and line mate quality in an asset we have now.
Very true. However, if I were to bet on this I’d take the under…
Brown is the Jack Campbell of goal scoring right now.
He is also a good PKer which gives him value.
Waiting for Knoblauch one day to peel his face back like in movies, and with an evil laugh reveal one Jacques Lemaire.
delete
I’ve been noticing it for quite awhile but I really have been appreciating less hesitancy of vinny to shoot the puck. Not trying to blast it usually just correctly timed in traffic to get puck on net. I wish d coach would make same adjustment for ceci as well. I swear he’d have a notable increase in assists if he were to adopt similar strategy.
High & wide or blocked at least 7/10 attempts. I’m really confused why no adjustment had been made already.
I think i can say without any exaggeration at all that anyone with criticism about this team right now is 110% a Negative Nelly!!
Well, let’s just take the speculation out of it. To nobody’s surprise:
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
Β·
2m
Oilers bottom six:
Holloway-McLeod-Perry
Janmark-Ryan-Brown
Gagner
Holloway- McLeod – Perry seems like a match made in heaven. Two of the youngest and fastest forwards with one of the oldest and slowest.
To the extent they want to keep McDavid/Drai together for now, this was the no-brainer adjustment for Saturday for me.
This makes sense but was hoping to see Holloway at centre for more than just one game, even if at 4C. Maybe 4C and taking Brown’s PK spot so Brown can come out of the lineup.
Its not just Brown on the PK. Its not just Janmark on the PK. Its the Janmark/Brown duo on the PK.
The head coach has been very adamant that he likes the consistency of the pairs on the PK and that he thinks its a major factor in the success of the kill.
I do think the Holloway will have a solid PK future in this league but I don’t imagine he sees any material PK time this season.
If Perry does his usual thing, those two lads are going to have never seen that amount of chaos net front, and room for them to dangle
If they give him time to get there
I said it before but I hope they learn how to cause chaos!
In the post-game, one of the media mentioned that this type of game isn’t the most exciting (I think it was Spec) and Nuge cuts it off and says “exciting for us”.
Love that they love they are winning by limiting goals against.
It’s that double dipping garbage that I can’t stand from the media. Either its, “You can’t win championships without defense,” or they flip the script and say, “This is kinda boring.”
Its lazy and self serving journalism that illuminates nothing. Good on Nuge for responding the way he did.
Spector is the definition of intellectual laziness β and the question he asked Nuge is the perfect example.
Writing how a high scoring team needs to learn to defend is easy. Writing how defensive hockey is boring is easy.
Learning how the teamβs tactics changed with the new coach is hard β it takes research and digging, and isnβt something you can prod out of someone in a post game scrum.
You get predictable, inverted pyramid type articles from Spec β donβt read his stuff if you want to learn anything. If you want your pre-existing, surface-level understanding of βold schoolβ hockey continuously re-confirmed, heβs your man.
Nuke Laloosh said it well in Bull Durham: “I love winning, man! I fβing love winning! You know what Iβm saying? Itβs, like, better than losing!”
edit – LOL… I didn’t see that somebody already posted a youtube link to the quote.
Does anyone else notice how much more enjoyable hockey is when your favorite team is winning?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6eGrVNNMceE
Obligatory.
Putting Perry on with McLeod and Holloway with Brown watching how to score from above seems about right.
I hope McLeod and Holloway learn how to make other teams a little nuts too. I also hope they learn more about competeing hard.
Do you think competing hard is an issue for Holloway? McLeod, sure, but Holloway is a high motor, high compete player, to my eye.
Its an absolute no-brainer to me that Sam Gagner is the player that comes out for Cory Perry.
We know there are only 4 reasonable options in Gagner, Jamark, Brown and Ryan.
We know there is only on of those guys that doesn’t PK.
Watching the last two games and, for me, its clear that one of those players is simply not at the same level defensively and in the d-zone structure game than the other 3, and that’s Sam Gagner who can be a bit of a liability in the defensive zone to my eye.
Hat tip to Bruce on the Cult post-game pod but does everyone know how many GA Janmark has been on the ice for in the last 15 games at 5 on 5? ZERO. And only 1 PK goal against.
Ya, Janmark is a black hole offensively but he’s 4-0 goals.
Connor Brown has only been on the ice for 2GA (4-2 goals).
Sam has been on the ice for 2GA in 5 games (3-2 goals).
This is easy for me (in particular with Perry being a right winger).
Head nod is all I’ve got to add. You sum it up pretty much perfectly. Gags out – Perry in.
The only caveat for me is do you need TWO offensive black hole, PK specialists in the lineup? If Holloway could take over some PK work, there’s an argument to drop Brown.
Gagner is by far the candidate who makes most sense as a not-so-fleet-of-foot offensive contributor. Perry is just better in that role and brings the physical agitation element. I don’t mind occasionally rotating Gagner and Ryan as the 13th forward to keep both vets healthy and hungry for ice time.
I get that but, at the same time, the coach has talked a ton about continuity of pairs on the PK and Brown/Janmark is a pair.
Wild and crazy thought: sometimes Gagner may sit out, sometimes the other 3 might. Gagner may well be the best candidate for game 1, but Iβd prefer a situational (opponent-based) approach.
Of course, one game at a time.
For now, I’m talking about tomorrow’s game only.
The rise from the basement has been historic – even better than the 2019 Blues!
Blues 2018 – 2019
Oilers 2023 – 2024
One thing Iβd like them to do, unless you can get a real difference maker for the playoffs is to get as much of cap overages in under this season to give themselves room to make a run next year too.
Yup.
That should always be a part of the plan. A lot of teams throw the chips in each season, one wins, and all have depleted themselves
The Oilers have been a team that change things since they arrived. Because good, because bad. I’d like to see them forge a new way to challenging, which is to not hurt their future chances too much making a run each season
I think there is some evidence from Holland’s prior pressers they are thinking along those same lines. For example, hs stated disdain for trading his first round picks for a pure rental, preferring to spend his best trade assets in general for players with term beyond the current season a la Ekholm. Much more farsighted than what has been done in the past, and which some teams still fall prey to.
I don’t see any realistic scenario where this team will be left with more than a couple hundred grand of unused cap space at the end of the season.
They are doing daily cap management moves now to accrue as much as possible but, at the end of the season, its almost all going to be used up unless they start selling material assets right away here.
Great article, LT.
The streak is unbelievable. Mostly because I think the team has at least a couple more gears. Especially, offensively.
Championship level teams win with their ‘B’ and ‘C’ quality games. Just can’t make it a habit.
This team has at least a couple more gears.
Thankfully the Coach sees this clearly and is still working. No resting on laurels. Even 15-game-winning laurels.
Fun timing for Saturday: after a couple lacklustre wins and with one more W needed before the break, The Worm hops over the boards to add a little spice to the sauce!
Doesn’t the best tequila have a worm in it?
Isn’t it mezcal what has the worm in’t? I’ve yet to see one in tequila.
Your point stands though, mi amigo.
I believe you’re right. Not much of a drinker and, though I am in Mexico, I really have no taste for tequila OR mezcal. Dos Equus cervesa, however…
For me it’s Pacifico Clara, or Tecate, if I’m drinking local cervezas.
LT makes this stunning provocation:
to which we must all loudly disagree; Lowetide is the single greatest publicly available website in the world.
We got haikus and everything.
on this we agree
Lowetide is a modest man
still best Oilers blog
Ha! well done
Yes – I try to visit every day. My favourite blogs are the personal anecdotes of LT’s childhood… as if written by W.O. Mitchell himself.
Actually, ZeroHedge! -).
Well, I guess, if you like ABC-owned mass media properties. I’ll stand with my choice.
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci are 31-25 goals (55 percent) together this season. There is some chaos in their collective, but they play tough minutes and often without McDavid.
I rewound a play for my wife last night – it was a fairly inconsequential play but that was due to Nurse. There was a bit of a broken play that led to a Hawk about to get a decent look on net from the mid-slot but then, boom, Nurse gets his stick in and the shot is thwarted. It wasn’t mentioned by anyone, although I’m sure noticed by the coaching staff, his teammates and anyone scouting the game, and its the type of play that I swear this player make 7-10 times per game.
Nurse is a strong, strong player!
Is that a quote? π
if it is, he is showing his age by being technologically impaired π
Nurse is finally playing within the teams defense structure and not trying to do everything himself. Coffey seems to have convinced him that less is more.
I saw that & made a similar rewind & comment to my own wife.
Well, either that one or another one just like it. Nurse puts out plenty of fires with that long stick. Sometimes blazes that he started himself, mind.
Ooops, my apoligies, I swear I quoted this but it didn’t work (as it does sometimes) and I missed it – my apologies.
The Nurse Bouch cap dilemma ripped the bandaid off for me
Should have gone long. It’s a calculated risk yes, but the fancies were shouting at the managers ‘league top two way D, big time re-up coming’. And it’s not hard to get some GM to buy his offense, if he grew sideburns
The cap? Staois doesn’t seem to think it’s Moby Dick, as I quoted him saying yesterday. Or a bunch of other GMs. You make a calculated hard decision, for the future of your team, and figure it out. Keeping everyone for warm fuzzies and cap anxiety is not the way to run a team like this, with a GOAT to boot
As that ship has sailed, the smart play is, swallow hard, deal Ekholm because of his age. Bro steps in. Kulak was excellent last night. His too high for 3 pair cap hit now becomes Bro and Kulak, 2 for around half the price of one, to keep Bouch and Nurse
You have to think long term. Connor has years of dominant play left Gord willing. Ek to me is better than Nurse when healthy, but he’s only got a couple of years left of it. And health isn’t guaranteed at his age and miles. Didn’t have to be this way, but it is. Or something like it
It’s a win-win though.
Either you find a way to sign Bouchard and have him here long term tearing it up, or you trade him for an absolute haul.
Valuable assets are a good thing!
I imagine the team letβs Drai leave in FA before trading Bouchard.
Except we need him
A lot of people donβt like math, but unfortunately in a capped league math becomes one of the decision makers
Going long with Bouchard this summer would have taken apx $3MM to $4MM more of cap space – I’m not sure who they would have moved out to find that cap space but it would be a player that is helping the team currently.
It would have made the current team worse.
Yes it βmayβ not have been as good
But Assistant GM capologist Math said it should be so. Unless you couldnβt see what Bouch is or donβt value. Perhaps that is what Holland thought, let him explode and trade
There has to be good players lost to the cap, to keep the best ones. The reason I quoted Staois was this reason. Knowing it was a choice between an extra 3-4M and securing that player for 8 was the choice, and keeping the right decision
That isnβt a lot of money to clear and replace with cheaper capable players. Assuming you can see those players. You need depth, but itβs the talent that is the difference maker between good teams when it counts
Bouch is a rare player. Heβs a young exceptionally talented right shot D. Also not horrible defensively as some of his talented peers are. Heβs not as good but in the Hughes Makar echelon. And bigger. You make sure you lock that down. Like Drai was
Management’s primary goal this off-season was to make the 2023/24 version of the Oilers as good on the ice as possible.
There is zero way to reasonably argue that reducing cap space by $3MM to $4MM is beneficial to that goal.
I am one that has always valued Bouchard highly and I also wish he was signed long term (and I am one that looks past the current season more than most and don’t agree with “all in” if it disregard the future) but totally understand and agree with the bridge deal given the circumstances and where the team is (was this off-season).
It’s kinda funny that you’re giving any kind of weight to a cap-related quote from a guy who:
1) hasn’t even been in charge of an NHL team for 4 full months,
2) who’s made exactly one contract-related transaction in his NHL managerial career, and
3) who’s never navigated an off season of player transactions involving a salary cap (the OHL does’t have a salary cap)
Talking the talk doesn’t mean a damn unless he proves he can walk the walk, right?
Prospectism!
The House of Stone, being the only NA amateur to play last night, gets the night off. The other six will be hockeying though.
Matt Copponi, like a good Timex, just keeps on ticking through his junior season. He continues to lead the Merrimack Merrimackians* in scoring with 7-22-29 in 22 games.
Lachance is enjoying a fine freshman campaign, while the Vermonters are more or less running in place as juniors.
Day’s rollercoaster season is on the downswing again, having dropped his past two decisions.
Mazura rounds out today’s sextet.
Flint (Day) @ 5 p.m.
Merrimack (Copponi) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Boston University (Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
Vermont (Münzenberger, MÀÀttÀ) @ 5 p.m.
All times are the same time and are also Triangle time.
*Not their actual team name. It is actually the Merrimackers**.
**No, it’s not. They are the Warriors.
They better come out hard in the 1st on Saturday afternoon against Nashville or that winning streak may end. The last.2 games the 1st period has been terrible. ( the 2nd against Columbus was bad as well).
Hope Perry gets in on that R side with Holloway and McLeod on Sat. Stick him in front and he can cause commotion and hopefully band one in.
Very nice to see Pickard with a great game and the 1st star.
15 in a row is an amazing streak. Bring it hard on Saturday and it will be 16.
It will be interesting to see where Perry slots in. But I’m leaning towards seeing Perry with Leon & Kane on a second line. That would see the first line intact with Nuge, Connor & Zack and a new third line with Holloway, Macleod & Foegele. How the fourth line goes might be the most interesting of all, some combo with Ryan, Janmark ,Brown, Gagner plus whoever they might acquire via trade or call ups from Bakersfield.
Oilers often audition new famous players higher than their play might rate. Thereβs a chance we see this a short while. Even better if it takes.
I’m trying to think of examples of this. Who are you thinking of?
Who’s the defensive conscience on that suggested 2nd line? Might get a few goals against.
The whole team has adopted a defensive conscience.
I feel the need to comment today. I don’t want to he that guy, but I don’t like 29 and 97 on the same line. At least not on a “scheduled” line together. I feel like it should be reserved for emergency. I don’t like the look of the team with the top heavy first line. Take it with a grain of salt, I’m nobody special with no deep knowledge of hockey lines.
It seems like the rest of the team either tries too hard, or just puts on time while they wait for the super line to take the ice again. It feels unbalanced, it feels like Drai and Connor try to get too fancy, and it feels like the rest of the team contributes less.
I didn’t enjoy the game last night aside from the obvious win and Pickard performance. We all know 29 and 97 can rip it up together and I even understand giving them this one game to rekindle chemistry. I just hope that the coach doesn’t turn into a nuclear junkie as a result.
MacT would say that towards the end of streak, you win some you should lose (and conversely you lose some you should win).
Am glad the coach said they’re playing just well enough to win right now. There’s obviously another level for this team. You go thru ups and downs over the course of a long season. Things will get tougher the 2nd half and the team will be challenged. But banking these points has been important so they can be set up for the 2nd half of the season. Don’t underestimate that value.
That’s why I implore that we trade for Sidney Crosby. I think he can make an impact on the 2nd line.
Being a Penguin for life has always been a priority for Sid. Iβm not sure heβs ready to move on from the only organization heβs ever known yet.
I agree that I found last night’s game kind of disinteresting. You pretty much knew they would win so no real excitement. Found myself drifting off to watch tennis. I have watched hockey for close to 60 yrs and while I have opinions I certainly defer to the coach’s decision on line combinations. How spoiled are we Oiler fans!
As always, it’s temporary. We have this conversation 4 times a year.
Agreed, for a spell it’s fine, permanently isn’t the goal. Knobby was right that it was getting stale in general. The lack of obvious new combos when Hyman 97 are tied at the hip at this point means a Drai or Nuge bump. Kane was a drag on that duo (by injury or whatever).
Foegele Mcleod were fire so you don’t break that up and Brown can’t score a lick so no reason to drag.
Seems like the logical move, on a temporary basis.
My haiku:
Pick when ripe, perfect
Leadership at all levels
Balance is acquired
Hate bringing the negative but the back of my head already mourns this fleeting moment of balance. Doc contract Bouch contract etcetera – Oil couldβve landed here with sustain.
For a GMβs sins
Hard won leaders are sold, prime,
Time and cap spare none.
By all means downvote this downbeat.
Vincent Desharnais #2 defenseman in the entire NHL for SA/60, and #9 at GA/60.
Player Season Totals – Natural Stat Trick
The man will get paid.
The Kulak-Desharnais pairing has been great. Sucks for Broberg cause thereβs not a clear path to playing time on the roster when all 6 d-men are playing well like this.
Desharnais is going to get paid but the Oilers may be the team who does so. Theyβll have to move on from Kulak to accommodate a new contract for Vinny, then Broberg gets to be full time NHLer next season.
Nice problem to have for the team – no way Iβd trade Broberg.
I’m told that during this entire win streak that Kulak has been on for exactly ONE goal. ONE!!
Zero goals against for Jamark…..
The numbers are fantastic, and QoC does not invalidate them, however it is a big factor – there is a long history of 3rd pairing d-men that show well in the possession/goal share numbers.
Matt Benning, for example.
With that said, last I checked, Vinny was actually not as sheltered via QoC as I had presumed, he was pressing 30% TOI vs. elites I think – although 2-5 goals in that category (apx – going by memory).
His play the last months is changing my opinion on him and his future in real time but I’m still not comfortable going over $1.5MM but would give some term in the $1.3MM to $1.45MM range.
Connor and Leon are going to get paid, but if there was ever an example of why they should consider taking a cut so the remaining cap can be used to bolster the roster, it would be this season where Connor is 6th and Leon 15th in points while the team goes 23-3 in their last 26.
Yep. There’s got to be a lot less stress when you don’t have to worry about needing to carry a team on your back most nights if you want to win
Iβm hoping McDavid takes a cue from Crosby. Crosby was best player in league, but never highest paid.
Naysayers will point to the implementation of overtime as a reason to shrug off this win streak from a historical context. Personally, I think the salary cap makes it harder to build and keep elite teams together, especially with the Covid flat line. This is a league designed for parity – heck even the expansion teams are playoff contenders their first year.
Stanley is no guarantee, but we are certainly witnessing something special in this regular season. Something no one remotely saw coming in the first month of play
This post in no way is meant to suggest that they should run Skinner in to the ground – they definitely will need to play the 2G in a higher percentage of games down the stretch – but I’m not so positive that the narrative the Skinner can’t handle a “true starters’ workload” and needs to be in more of a 1A/1B tandem, a narrative that I have been on board with, is necessarily true.
I think most believe that Skinner tired in the playoffs last year, probably both physically and mentally, and that very well may have been the case (or maybe he just slumped, right?).
If we presume that is the case, I’m not sure that means we are trending towards something similar this season – I mean, I see MANY legit differences between this year and last:
1) Pre-season preparation – last season was Skinner’s first full time season in the NHL, not to mention, his first time being a 1A in the NHL. I would suggest that he likely learned a TON about what his body and mind need as far as rest and recovery – not just during this season but when he was off-season training/prepping for the season. I would think he was a lot more prepared for the rigorous of the job.
2) Recover Time in General – I’m talking mental as well as physical. Last year must have been a whirlwind for Skinner. I mean, in addition to establishing himself in the NHL he, took over a starting job and “saved his team’s season, he negotiated a contract extension and guaranteed himself security, he had his first child and he dealt with a whirl-wind of an all-star weekend. I imagine that was mentally exhausting.
3) The schedule – this has not been a grueling schedule at all and he soon gets a full 9 day break – last year he got no break. This is a total physical and mental re-set.
I’m not saying to run Skinner in to the ground but I’m nothing what I truly think are some real differences from last season and I’m not positive that going forward, over the next 2, 3, 5 years, Skinner can’t be a true 1A with a high workload – like a 62-65 start workload ala Sarros and Demko and Connor H. (not saying he’s an “elite 1A” but maybe can be a legit 1A).
We’ll see.
It might sound crazy, but I’d for Pickard to start 5 of the 12 games in February. Or even 7 of the 15 contests leading up to the trade deadline.
Besides workload management for Skinner, as you mention, I think the Oilers need to see what they truly have in Pickard at the NHL level.
There’s a 50-50 chance he’s as good if not better than some of the deadline pickup options. We’ll need to know for certain if an upgrade is required but there’s a chance Pickard is more than capable.
I think he can be the guy this team needs. More reps to confirm is prudent of course. Acquisition costs for something better will be high. He has been a solid AHL goalie and tweener for years. It is very difficult to get the opportunities to show what you can do when there are players queued ahead of youβ¦
100% agree, and 5 games in February against tougher opposition was exactly what I was thinking for Pickard. If Pickard fails the ‘evaluation’, then you have to get the new guy some starts after the deadline to bed in with his new team.
The schedule gets jam packed after the ASG. 12 games in 22 days in Feb, 15 games in March and 10 games in 18 days in April. 4 more sets of back to back games left to go. Regardless of who the backup is to end the season, you just can’t play Skinner at the same frequency he has been playing up to here.
33 of 44 games is a worrying pace for Skinner, but logistically it can’t continue. It’s hard to see him getting much over 60 games as the schedule is too tight to get him into 28+ of the next 38.
Actually 8 back to backs (16 games in all) after the break. The schedule gets more & more onerous, ending with 5 games in 7 days (Fri-Sat-Mon-Wed-Thu), followed no doubt by the earliest possible playoff date because NHL.
Thankfully, the Oilers have not only overcome their massive early deficit, theyβve already built up quite a nice cushion over the playoff cut line. So the βmust-winβ component of the late run of games should be tempered considerably.
Yes, thank you. My brain wasn’t parsing Saturday-Sunday back to backs because they’re on a new calendar line π
Pickard should play 4-5 games in Feb for sure. They need a bigger sample size from him to make that final decision as to go after another backup or not. He has played great but really would like to see him play a couple teams that have a good top 6.
Absolutely. Need to make a decision if you need to get a backup goalie at trade deadline. No reason to run Stu into the ground and what if you need another goalie during playoffs
Oh, I agree, the 2G will need to play ALOT come mid-February – perhaps as many as much as 35%-40% of the games.
This is more about Skinner’s ability to handle a true starters’ workload going forward.
They play 9 games in 16 nights starting Feb 13 – Pickard is going to play!
From a physical standpoint, there is no reason to think he can’t handle as many games as the average starter. What is that these days?
From a mental standpoint, I also think Stu comes across as calm and level headed so too much stress shouldn’t be much of a concern either.
Thus it seems reasonable to keep him at average starter levels for games played. He doesn’t need extra care.
His start this year also makes me skeptical that the playoffs was due to fatigue.
I like the Chambers and others plan of starting Pickard a good 5 times in Feb. to see if he can handle the backup role. If he performs, does bringing in Reimer or XXXX improve the team, and at what cost? The biggest risk would be injury to Skinner, but thatβs the same risk for most teams (Jets, Rags, Stars, Avs) other than likely the Knights. Stu is also a large fella who wonβt wear down as easily as slender goalie in the playoff grind.
I still think the baby factory that was the Oilers in β23, along with injury, had a big impact to start the season as more than 1/2 of them had little sleep ruiners at home.
One other point on this is that the Oilers have an extra layer security basket.
Jack Campbell is having a nice stretch of play in the AHL. Of course, absolutely no way they call him up any time soon – no reason to with Pickard playing well and, cap wise, they would need to send down Pickard AND another player – and they’d lost Pickard on waivers most likely – its a non-starter.
With that said, they could (and would) surely add Campbell to the roster for the playoffs, where there is no roster limit nor salary cap. Sure, he wouldn’t have played an NHL game in months and months but if he’s coming up confidant after a number of months of solid play in a tandem role in the AHL, there is a non-zero chance he could provide some decent, good, great tending in the playoffs as a 3rd option type of deal.
The Oilers have depth at the position right now.
I haven’t heard anyone say it, but I think that start was a team unprepared for the expectations that they put on themselves. Cup or bust, early captains skates, changing the defensive system, etc. I think that will make them all stronger in the long run!!!
One wants to keep it under 60 games…ideally around 55. 2 out of 3 games, on average.
Done right you keep Stu paying and happy and performing at his best come playoff time, but you also get Pickard enough playing time to be at his best also at that time, without sacrificing wins. WE have eight BRB pairs remaining so that is at least 8 games for Pickard, out of 40 remaining. can we find at least 4 to 6 more among the soft parade on top of that? That would be my target.
I could see Pickard getting ANA, STL MIN, SEA, BUF, BUF, OTT, ANA, CAL, ARI, SJ, ARI for 12 games played in 40 remaining, leaving 28 for Stu.
Could be as high as 14 for Pickard, In February, let him play Anaheim, St Louis,Minny, St Louis and Seattle. To the Trade deadline he could play Buffalo twice, Ottawa and Anaheim. Home stretch of the season he could draw St Louis again, Calgary Arizona twice and San Jose. That would be 14 and leave 26 for Stu.
Connor Brown has had two of the strangest moments I’ve ever seen from an NHL forward:
-been on a breakaway, didn’t get a shot off, fell down and then crashed into the boards.
-that play, last night, where he crashed into Holloway, negating a scoring chance from the slot.
… and I would still keep him in the lineup over Gagner, to make from for Perry on Saturday night. He kills his line’s offensive chances but also kills penalties quite well.
He ran into Holloway twice last night
I was saying to my wife last night that I’m looking forward to the Oilers playing some “higher level of competition” on a regular basis post-break.
As coach said last night “they are playing just good enough to win” (might not be exact words).
Can’t look past a Nashville team that is fighting for their playoff lives, on a Saturday afternoon right before a 9-day break (probably lots of flights booked for Sat night/Sunday) but damn I can’t wait for Vegas post break.
They usually save their best for the better teams.
Good stuff, as always, LT…
So, is the team finally balanced?
(I vote yea)
I am happy to see a picture of a beautiful woman again π
Agreed. That never gets old, even if I do…