Connor McDavid arrived in Edmonton in the summer of 2015, with transcendent talent and a burning desire to win. The Stanley Cup was and is the goal. The organization had to mature under mercurial owner Daryl Katz, and had to endure several roster missteps along the way. Stanley might not come to visit Edmonton this summer, luck and circumstance will have their say. I think we can agree this team has already done something special.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- New DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
- Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- DNB: Why Oilers signing Corey Perry isn’t a surprise — even in these circumstances
- Lowetide: How the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup in 2024 could impact future
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers’ 6 biggest 2023-24 first half surprises
- DNB: Oilers win 13th straight, most by Canadian team in NHL history
- Lowetide: 5 AHL Oilers prospects with the most value ahead of NHL trade deadline
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers midseason report cards
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ Dylan Holloway pick at the 2020 NHL Draft
- DNB: Oilers are back as a Western Conference power
- DNB: Projecting the Oilers’ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension
- Lowetide: Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 11-0-0, 22 points in 11 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 29-15-1, 59 points in 45 games
This team has seen it all: From 20,000 leagues under the sea to the outer markers of all known galaxies; from absolute zero to the middle of the sun’s core. To hell and back. Edmonton is in second place Pacific today using points percentage. Get yer ya-ya’s out!
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers didn’t have a great game and that’s three in a row. What they did have is Stuart Skinner, defensive structure, a commitment to contest everything and some luck. Plus McDavid and Draisaitl. Nurse-Ceci played the big minutes and faced the Filip Forsberg trio most often, struggled but did not surrender a goal.
The Holloway-McLeod-Perry line entertained right from the start, I didn’t like the Nuge line and math didn’t either. The fourth line had a devil of a time. I’m fairly certain we see a different set of forward lines for the Vegas game.
- McDavid 1-3-4
- Draisaitl 1-2-3
- Nuge 1-1-2
- Bouchard 0-1-1
- Ekholm 0-1-1
- Hyman 1-0-1
The men who scored yesterday afternoon, along with goalie Skinner and defenseman Nurse, are the heart of the order. The men who fill the other foundation roles (Kane, Foegele, McLeod, Ceci) will need to play at their best as will injury replacements. McDavid’s brilliance and urgency is finally met with a roster worthy of a championship burst.
Cup or bust. Indeed.
New for The Athletic: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
https://theathletic.com/5227416/2024/01/28/oilers-prospects-stats-january-2024/
Let’s give Paul Coffey his due.
Dude was once considered only second to Gretzky in talent, and unlike most of the rest of the Boys on the Bus has managed to play a major role in elevating the hockey team to make a 16 game winning streak, as well as a completely respectable 10-6 record prior to that.
No need to even mention the 24-3 record recently put up by this formerly mediocre team.
Summarizing!
Despite a game-high 6 SOG, Stonehouse did not incur soup. He shall have to content himself with three raspberries instead.
Prospecting takes a break until Tuesday.
I was going to mention how remarkable it was for each of those 3 player to have an xGF% over 50% on the night when they were so so bad together, but I realized they weren’t actually that bad together (32% xGF).
Still worth noting that each of them was better without the others last night, and that 0% shots and 0.05% xGoals was not representative of the decent-to-good games all of those players had.
Also, 2:43 on the PK together with 1 shot against (2 attempts) no high danger attempts and a 0.1 expected goals against.
Fort Wayne defeated Cincinnati 2-0 on Saturday evening. Ryan Fanti with the shutout!
Long time lurker… These amazing times have finally inspired me to join the community here.
Stuart Skinner – His play can no longer be called a ‘run’ or ‘streak’ (wins aside). Simply too many games to be considered a ‘heater’…. I firmly believe that what we are seeing is Stuey establishing a new baseline level of play for himself. He had some really good stretches last season and, imo, saved the year for the team when Campbell soiled himself, but had a few rough patches and eventually ran outta steam in the POs. I don’t think that’s gonna happen this year. He’s playing so well now, and for so long… Historically, he has generally learned and improved himself from the previous year. This year’s leap is well underway and I expect will continue into the post season. That’s when his year over year growth will truly manifest itself.
And if Stuey has truly leveled up (I think he has) and this is his new standard, give or take, he will win Vezina(s) someday…. Hell, if the Oil keep doing what they’re doing, he’ll be in the mix this year.
So yeah… I’m bullish on Stuart Skinner.
And pleased to finally meet you all. Thanks for having me Mr. Mitchell.
Welcome aboard!!!
Thanks!
Hola amigo! Come estas?
I can’t complain, and if I did, no one would care. Amirite?
Welcome Toupee!
Sweet handle
Haha! Cheers!
Congrats to the Chiefs and their fans. Mahomes is turning into an all=time great.
Now I shred my nerves for the next three hours. Best of luck to the Lions.
Looks like SanFran are not maintains their gaps (giggle)
Mike Tyson: Everyone has a plan till they punched in the mouth
Niners: Hold my beer!
Expected to lose, but not holding a 17 point lead, absolutely heartbreaking.
I feel ya. Seriously. Heckuva game. I have no nerves left
Taylor going to have to fly back right away from Tokyo for the game.
My Haiku:
Fought opponents teeth
Carry into a break to
Relax but not wane
Kings get a loser point against STL.
PLD – 0 points, -1
But he did take a penalty. Have to earn that contract any way you can.
Fiala benched.
when did they hire Chiarelli as GM?
Speaking of Fiala, that reminds me, can you guess who posted this?
“The only concern I have with LA is their goaltending but I’d be just as concerned about SkinnerCamobell.
Skinner was exposed in the playoffs .883 3.68 GAA.
Campbell is a box of chocolates.
PLD should easily score 30G 70P since the plan is to play him with Fiala and Arvidsson and of course that allows Danault to play on a shutdown line and he’s much better than McLeod.
Adding a full season of Gavrikov and phenom Brandt Clarke will make the Kings D among the the best in the conference.”
Comrade Squealer?
Who do you think the Kings would like to see first round of the playoffs. That was my question months ago. I think the answer has slowly become: The Kings would love to make the playoffs.
What a wild ride. The Kings fall would have been not quite as surprising to me as the rise of the Oilers many months ago, but surprising nonetheless.
Trade for PLD has to be one of the worst trades
I’ve seen Rasmus Andersson mentioned several times a potential Ceci replacement.
Hard no.
He’d get eaten alive with Ceci’s deployment. Underwater relative to competition and the only times he breaks even against elites he’s running a PDO heater. Talking with coworkers who are fLames fans, word is he’s a very streaky player prone to long cold stretches of indifferent play.
https://puckiq.com/players/8478397
Cody Ceci
https://puckiq.com/players/8476879
See this is what I mean … it’s really hard to find a player who can provide the value that Ceci provides for that kind of deployment.
Easy to say … find another RH Ekholm … but it’s not clear who that player is.
It’s Chris Tanev.
No it’s not. Tanev can no longer play big minutes. He’s a 3rd pairing RHD on a non-playoff team.
He’s a 3rd pairing RHD on a non-playoff team.
What cha taking about?
He’s 4th in TOI among the Flames D (19:40/game).
5th in TOI is the departed Zadarov (18:24/game in his 21 games).
Every other Flames D is under 15 min/game. Oesterle, Gilbert and DiSimone are the 3 main 3rd pair D (played 20+ games), and they’ve all played under 13:30/game.
You’re right.
Heres TOI for Flames RHD:
Andersson 24:14 minutes/game
Weegar 22:14
Tanev 19:40
Tanev has been playing on the Flames 2nd pairing with Hanifin as per NST.
Tanev might work – great defensively, blocks a ton of shots, not much better on offense than Ceci though.
But UFA after this season and then you’ve got to find another RHD cause someone is going to give Tanev the bag in the summer.
I’d still prefer getting a RHD with some term left on their contract (but not too much term). Andersson remains my favourite target for that reason. Knock back his TOI by 2 minutes, and he could be a lot more effective playing for us than he is playing for the Flames.
Plus I love Swedes … we need more Swedes.
I think Tanev is a worthwhile addition, though not perfect obviously.
Agree that Andersson would be a bigger add, but he’ll also cost far more in assets.
The Flames also aren’t going to retain salary for multiple seasons so you’d need to subtract Kulak/Foegele in addition to Ceci to fit his salary in.
Tough for me to see an Andersson trade that works.
I complied the last 4 seasons vs elites using PuckIQ’s relative measures per 60. Andersson received a slightly more difficult assignment 5v5. His on ice goal stats are better. And if you look at his individuals (not shown) those are better too. DFF Rels are worse, which is what I think you are saying.
It is a well-known fact that Ceci played hurt most of last season. Something your analytics doesn’t show. Also, Campbell didn’t save anyone’s beacon
Didn’t save anyone’s bacon either
Only halftime, and anything can happen, but who had the Chiefs up by two scores at this point?
Lotsa time left but I’d never bet against Connor Mahomes
GO Cheifs!
Another red zone turnover should be the final dagger. Possibly not as the Ravens D has played stout, but just a couple of first downs here and it’s over.
Of course, no doubt, if you could find a move to dispose of Campbell that wasn’t cost-prohibitive, you do it – $3.85MM of cap commitment off the books (immediate, and $5MM for the next 3 years) would be a game changer.
At the same time, I think the likelihood of that move before the trade deadline is as unlikely as acquiring Karlsson was last deadline (I never gave the premise any power).
I don’t see a path to Campbell being back on the roster this season with the increase in cap over Pickard and Pickard playing so well and now being a waiver loss risk.
At the same time, I see Campbell on the no-cap playoff roster and, even without another minutes of NHL action this regular season, that is a wild-card 3G that could come up confidant (after playing well in the AHL) and with a real history of NHL playoff success.
I just realized Pouzar was a player on the 84 Oiler cup champs, saw his name on a team photo and it all clicked…such an obscure player name lol
There’s another poster on this site with Pouzar as a handle as well.
That would be the “unoriginal Pouzar”
A Pouzar poser…
Yeah, the original Lowetide pouzar
You must be a spring chicken. Pouzar was a supper cool player. Lumley was cool but Pouzar was way cooler.
I’m 38 years old….never kissed a girl
Tragic.
You’re missing out, I would say. Nothin’ like it!
A well quoted Tragically Hip lyric!
But Lumley had one of the greatest Oilers’ flows of all time. Maybe Pouzar had great flow too, but it was hidden under a bucket.
Pouzar was on 84,85 and 87.
Do you give Tyson Barrie any credibility? He said on Spittin Chicklets that he was told to expect to go to SJS, and when Holland called an said it was NSH he was blown out of the water with surprise.
Tyson never said he was told to be expected to be traded to San Jose but something along that lines that a Karlsson trade would be the only trade he’d be in.
I don’t believe there was any real legs to a Karlsson trade and the likes of Seravelli/Friedman had stated the Oilers never made an actual offer.
In regards to Campbell what would you consider too high a price to move that contract?
I ask because if we can get by without that price the buyout is not that bad.
First year and our total for goaltending will be about 5 million second about 6. Both are reasonable numbers. After that the hurt reduces yearly by % of cap by virtue of cap increases.
If it costs Bourgault plus 2 firsts then which is more painful?
Campbell’s contract is a lot more than the Patrick Marleau one. I don’t think there is any precedent for such a trade, what it would cost is a wild guess.
That’s my point, thank you. The cost of losing 3 firsts (maybe more or less) outweighs the cap price of a buy out after this year.
The Cal Peterson trade is quite a good precedent except it only had 2 years left, right now Campbell has 3.5 years left.
The Kings retained $2MM (well, acquired Proporov to retain on that contract in a subsequent trade) so paid assets to get rid of a $3MM X 2 year contract.
So cal Patterson price was for 6 mil now double that price plus another 50% to dispose of 15 mil.
That’s the type of trade that is “too expensive”. I wouldn’t give more that a single first rounder (well, maybe add a B prospect in the Savoie or Grubbe range) and I don’t think that comes close for a 100% disposition.
When times are this good it’s easy to be complacent and not dig too far under the hood for problems. This philosophy has been the ruin of many formally great companies. Now is precisely the time to be analyzing the teams performance with an eye to incremental improvements.
I think it’s time to put a spotlight in Nurse and Ceci and remember the value of Rel. It’s unite easy to say “they are hanging in there against the toughs” and just leave it at that but it ignore a couple of key things.
1. They are playing behind a juggernaut team almost exclusively behind 29 and less so 97.
2. The “toughs” aren’t that tough in the regular season. At least half the games are against the fodder.
3. We saw them completely fold and cost us a Stanley Cup against the Knights.
4. Our eyes see how much they struggle against the elites many nights. Forsberg chewed them up last night. OReilly did it a few months ago. The Jets quick line did it.
There’s smoke here. Is there fire?
Here’s the stats…
-Corsi and Fenwick Bouchard 66% and Ceci 44%
-GF% Bouchard 67% and Ceci 47%
-xGF 69% and Ceci 47%
Relative;
Bouchard +19% and Ceci -16%
xGA/60 2.21 Bouchard and 3.39 Ceci
There’s no upgrade that can help this team more than a 2RD. I’d guess Parkatti sees it but will they have the guts?
I wish I could like this 10 times. Completely agree.
Agree – I’m sure the whole organization knows this.
But Ceci is arguably full value for a 3.25 million cap hit.
Who is the realistic target for a Ceci upgrade that is already playing 20-22 minutes/game, right-handed, with good size and speed, has playoff experience, has several years left on a contract, that the Oilers could conceivably fit under their cap, that the other team may consider trading to us?
So no … not Tanev, cause he can’t play those minutes any more
Not Sean Walker … tiny D-man who’s never been more than a depth player in his career, who got pushed down in Philly’s lineup by Drysdale
Not Chychrun … the proverbial good stats on a bad team guy. If he could play his off side, then why is Ottawa trying to get rid of him?
Not Dumba …its been 6 years since he put up 50 points; he’s a smaller, less talented version of Nurse.
Justin Schultz … lol, no
DeAngelo … LOL, NO
Pesce … Carolina sees themselves as a Cup-contender in the East; they’ll keep him as an own-rental before they trade him to us
So who are the real targets? The RHD that would actually raise the floor of this team’s Cup aspirations? I look to the teams that are just on the outside of a playoff spot, but still think they have a chance to get in … maybe one of these teams makes a similar choice to Nashville last year:
Calgary – Rasmus Andersson … 27 years, 6’1″, 214 lbs, on pace for 50+ points, 3 years x 4.5 million
Washington – John Carlsson … 34 years, 6’3″, 217 lbs, on pace for 50+ points, 3 years x 8 million
St. Louis – Colton Parayko … 30 years, 6’6″ lbs, 230, on pace for 30+ points, 7 years x 6.5 million left
For the latter two options, salary retention would be required or the Oilers would have to find a way to unload Campbell first.
Could you Litke it 94?
🤣
Cody Ceci and Evan Bouchard have very similar results with Connor McDavid in terms of CF% and DFF%. GF, which is wobblier at the sample sizes we’re talking about, is well positive in both cases. Stronger for Boosh, because well, he scores a significant number of goals himself. All Dmen whop do will look better in the GF columns.
Difference between the two is… Boosh plays about three times more minutes than Ceci does with 97. And the stats we use are also all more weighted to the impact of forwards and goalies. I doubt Parkatti is using NST or PuckIQ. We have to, he doesn’t. So that’s a strange equivalence to make.
End of the story is, if you want to upgrade Ceci’s numbers, simply play him with McDavid more. I’m not saying the Oilers should, I’m saying that’s where the difference in numbers lie.
Analysis without taking into account both QualTeam and QualComp is not convincing. Parkatti would know that too. And that’s before even getting into the cost-benefit analysis of what would be a very expensive trade.
I’m not seeing the similar results between Ceci and Bouchard with McDavid. The players don’t compare. Knoblauch has Bouchard with McDavid in order to move the puck to the first line more quickly. They use Ceci more as shut-down. He does ok at that. But he has almost zero offensive upside and doesn’t really shoot the puck.
Parkatti likely will go a few extra layer in his analysis, right?
I mean, I think Nurse/Ceci being part of a 5-man group with the Drai line, opposed to the McDavid line (for most of the last 30 games) is real and substantial and might make up for the entire delta in numbers.
I mean, playing tough comp with Drai and Kane is not the same as playing it with Nuge and McDavid (and Connor).
Yes, I agree that QOT is a factor. But Ceci and Nurse get the same QOT. The guy doesn’t really shoot the puck. Last season he was hurting and couldn’t shoot. I don’t think his “shut-down” play has compensated for the complete lack of offence.
Watching this team play hockey s a lot of fun!
Paragons indeed.
Connor could up his ice time, chances, shots, PP effort, and thus skyrocket up the scoring standings. He could have done this against this run of average teams.
Do you think there was any discussion or intention behind this?
Connor, don’t carry the team. Force someone else to step up. Force everyone into the fight.
Could that have been part of Knoblochs MO?
Certainly he has watched Connor before and how players step back and defer to him.
It’s also obvious that both Leon and Connor are not chasing points.
On this warm Sunday I was just wondering if there might be any intentional strategy happening here.
Connor less points, the rest of team more points, it’s working.
How about Anthony Mantha as a deadline target? Listed as a left shot, right winger. 15 goals and a plus 6 on a Washington team that is -30 goal differential. Believe Holland would have drafted him so should be familiar. He is a pending UFA at over 5 mill so would need to figure out how to fit him in cap wise.
Maybe something like Mantha 50% retained, and Edmundson for Kulak, Bourg, and draft picks. (No firsts)
RNH McDavid Hyman
Kane, Draisaitl, Mantha
Foegle McLeod Perry
Janmark Holloway Brown
Ryan
Gagner
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Ceci
Broberg Desharnais
Edmundson
I was just looking at him last night for the same reason. Problem is either Foegle or Kulak would have to go as well and Holand has already shown his preference to keep both.
I know there are long-suffering Lions fans here…
If you’re into the games today, please check out JonnyDel’s preview video on the Lions-Niners matchup. I’ve been following him throughout the Shanahan era and he’s outstanding at breaking down plays. Keep in mind it is from a 49er perspective, but you will get a lot of insight into the Lions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCs8r2QvseM
Patrick Laine enters the NHLPA player assistance program.
More players struggling at the moment or more interventions early on helping to make things better? Hard to tell, but hopefully the latter.
Yeah…was thinking about that too.
I expect it’s the latter and that’s a very good thing.
I expect the latter and that’s a very good thing.
More willingness to “ask for” or accept help, I would guess.
Less stigma, etc.
Thank goodness.
Got and quick notes on how this program affects the cap? Is it a complete loss for the team (no player + no IR-type cap treatment)? Either way there are scary/fascinating incentives created.
Presuming he’s out for 10 games and 24 days, its eligible for LTIR – its not a “remove cap” type situation.
I really hope he works it out!!!
The hockey gods were certainly on our side last night. The Preds outshot and outchanced us. They also hit a couple posts and missed some open nets.
That said, like the last couple games which were close for the first 40 minutes, I never got that “squeeky-bum” feeling. Not only am I forgetting what it is like to lose, I’m starting to forget that losing is a possibility.
Of course this will change. Little Johnny Frostbite had a great post last night putting this streak in perspective. Savour this while it lasts, however long it lasts. The chances a streak like this is repeated in most of our lifetimes is less than the likelihood that Liz Hurley will beg me to run away with her.
They got outplayed but it really appeared that score effects were present to me. Those open nets were contested (and thwarted to their credit, or the Pred just missed, which happens) but boy did they give a lot of pucks away.
They’re out scoring their mistakes the last 4 games. That was Woody’s strategy. Old habits Hans Gruber?
A little mental fatigue I would think. But just IMHO.
So you’re saying there’s a chance . . .
Looking at the UFA list, I can’t help but thinking Jordan Eberle is going to be our deadline top 6 RW add.
Small and slow … and now several years older than he was when he got sent away.
I can’t help but thinking it’s time to stop pining after former Oilers who couldn’t cut it in the playoffs when they were in their prime.
22/23: 14gp/11p
20/21: 19gp/11p
19/20: 22gp/14p
18/19: 8gp/9p
16/17: 13gp/2p
What year looks like the outlier? What trend looks more predictive of future results?
I know this is a crude way to form a statistical argument, but his production in the playoffs (on weaker teams than the Oilers, mind) suggest he could help this club. I’d wager he’d see an increase in production playing in EDM.
If the price was right I’d have time for acquiring Eberle. Not sure if I’d prefer him over Guentzel or Tarasenko, but I feel like he’d be cheaper to acquire and more willing to extend at a reasonable rate if things went well.
Or the opposite. Stop flogging ex players that were lost due to bad management, and remembering them poorly in order to feel better.
As we head into the break, it’s time to check in on our Allstars and see how the streaks *that really matter* are going.
THE SNAKEBIT CUP (Shots in a goal-less season)
Standings as of January 28th (Full 1979+ History)
Brown’s really committed to his craft lately, so the least I can do is match his intensity by including the full franchise history for the Oilers. The teams were generally better pre-2000, so this didn’t help much; nonetheless, some new names and high marks emerged.
A top 10, including defenders, to be charitable.
* Includes some futility with the Blackhawks
** Includes some futility with the Stars (the Minnesota ones) and Pittsburgh. May also have been a Star Wars character.
Ceci continues to be a good teammate to Brown and benefits from an influx of defensemen who excelled at generating offensive zone whistles… just as he was on the cusp of passing Smid and establishing a new benchmark. Can he catch Fogelin and show him who’s Sr? We wait.
Now a less charitable top 10 that only considers forwards
Interestingly, only a single pre-2000 forward could challenge the century of darkness’ leading horsemen, and wouldn’t you know it, he bore the same last name! A spiritual brotherhood across the decades? I suspect that Dennis Quaid is hard at work on another radio-based screenplay.
This era’s Brown has overtaken Russel and cruised past all defenders in franchise history. However, does Tobias loom out there like Voyager, tantalizingly beyond humanity’s grasp on the fringes of physical possibility? Connor’s averaging 1.71 shots/game with 37 left to play; the math says there’s a chance!
Sudden flashback of my dad in the stands screaming to Muni that his shot couldn’t break glass.
Now that we have a break…are we ready to talk about how much coaching matters and that you can see things going wrong much earlier than most believe?
And how much of a difference attitude makes? Which is of course set by that guy behind the bench.
Default winning attitude. Default calm. Being happy warriors while never being satisfied. This is where they have needed to be. It’s a hell of a thing.
This is a veteran squad playing in a knowledgeable hungry mad hockey town. This team can basically coach itself and coach K.K has simplified things. This includes the rolling of lines when the game dictates it (penalties) getting everyone involved (team) which has taken so much physical and more importantly mental pressure off of Connor, Leon and Nurse. These vital players will have more in the tank when the real season starts. Woody tried to reinvent the wheel when all he had to do was let them play. I knew it was over for Woody when they recieved 3 too many men penalties in a half a game I believe against the Northstars all because of his gimmick 11-7 deployment.
That was a Spring 23 throwback game: yes you can win with special teams! Maybe not 16 in a row but certainly every 16th win can lean on the PP no?
Its not sure if Lavoie hurt his hand in his fight last night or a later play (identified by Bruce Curlock) where he did take a stick to the hands (and didn’t play after).
Either way, importantly, Mike Griffith is reporting that the hand is swollen but no break so that is good news.
The Holloway-McLeod-Perry line entertained right from the start, I didn’t like the Nuge line and math didn’t either. The fourth line had a devil of a time. I’m fairly certain we see a different set of forward lines for the Vegas game.
That second line had an ugly game, didn’t it?
That third line has some real promise and I think it makes sense to give them a string of games.
I think the path forward for February 5 is to put the top 2 lines back to the default: Nuge/McDavid/Hyman and Kane/Drai/Foegele
Leave the bottom 2 lines how they are – the fourth line players are there to saw off in 7-8 minutes and PK.
I’m really starting to believe they need a center to bolster the fourth line. The top nine has plenty of talent the pieces just need to be slotted in their proper spots. The top line is totally optimized. But they haven’t found optimization with the 2nd & 3rd lines yet. They most certainly will though.
Adding a center for the 4th line hurts the pk. I prefer a 50% goal 4th line that are great pkers.
Well obviously, the acquired fourth line center would be another PKer to add to the arsenal.
If the text you want to quote is above the shaded quote box, it’s not going to post as a quote. The text has to be inside the shaded grey part.
I’ve had this issue before. My workaround (pending some kind of WordPress update) is to omit the final character. What this does is prevent a new paragraph being inserted automatically, which pushes the text outside of the quote (works 95% of the time or better).
I’d personally like to see the other top two lines again, with McLeod/Draisaitl/Foegele as L2 and Kane/Holloway/Perry as L3.
You’ve mentioned the CBA bye week and the lack of practice time due to the ASG. Any idea how much time there is to practice before the VGK game, if any?
OK, thank you, and sorry – ugh.
I’m not sure exactly but I’m going to guess they will be permitted to have team activities again on the Monday (and game is on the Tuesday).
Remember last year, McDavid/Drai/Skinner got on the PJ like right after their media avail to get back for practice like the next morning.
Ugh, i missed the quote on this again, and I apologize.
I know, with 100% certainty, the I used the quote function, I’m positive of it. It seems is doesn’t work sometimes and I need to learn to not just hit “post” and walk away but to ensure its worked.
I apologize to the host – this is unintentional!
I do agree with this but, at the same time, I thought the Oilers had “a good game”.
This wasn’t the same as the last two when the Oilers seemed a big sluggish against a clearly inferior team.
Last night, at least for me, was a solid/good Nashville team that was playing very well. That is a likely playoff team with some really nice pieces on the back-end and the type of top forwards that battle hard and can make plays (Forsberg, O’ Riley).
That was not an easy game for the Oilers but their goalie played well, they stuck to their structure, generally, and, well, their elite talent and PP came through.
We talk about not relying on McDavid/Drai and the PP for all the wins and that is true but, well, sometimes those players and the PP drive wins and that is A OK!
If a quote without quotation marks is quoted but without any comment, is it still a quote?
“” “”
A quote is a quote. Not a comment. But then a quote without quotation marks might be mistaken as a comment. Quotation marks are key. ” ” ? No comment.
Ok… but if a tree falls in the forest, does it make a “sound”?
Have you never heard a tree fall in the forest?
OP’s deployment of quotation marks is one of my central obsessions.
Did I do something wrong here. I though we were told that we should either (1) use the quote function or (2) put actual quotation marks before and after….. I did the former….
Can I quote you on that?
I actually thought Preds were the better team yesterday and deserved a better outcome. Cult of Hockey stats confirm that. We won with goaltending and special teams (and nothing wrong with that!). Not sure I would want to play them in a playoff series.
Oilers maintained their structure throughout and were rewarded with their PP opportunities. Not only that, but they also didn’t allow any goals while on the PK. Preds lost the special teams battle. Preds had lots of compete, they just weren’t good enough. Better team won.
I am seeing a LOT of new commenter names on here lately. Are these all new commenters or are previous commenters refreshing their monikers to reflect the team’s reinvented identity?
I was previously Turning Tikkanese. I got bored and decided on a change, for example.
The last time the Oilers went to the Stanley cup finals, a lot of new users came on board during the season.
Holland (Jackson) needs to make this the all in year. Whatever it takes. We may never see another chance at the cup that looks more plausible than this one.
Powder, your days of being kept dry are over come the trade deadline!
I have good news for you regarding the Powder.
Unless they get someone that definitely puts them over the top I would make sure to get the cap overages in under this season to have next season as a good shot at the cup too.
Sounds like we’re looking for a top 6 winger but other than Guentzel I don’t see too many available
Same. They got a roster that’s a contender they can basically carry over into next season, provided they make moves to cover the cap this year. It’s still a two year window before things get complicated.
Non needle moving adds wastes assets. We’ve seen this under KH. Assets out, needle stationary or worse
Ekholm sure that was good, and very expensive in assets and cap. I have a problem with the thought it’s this year because it’s the closest we’ve been. This group playing well can beat any team as is, the key is playing well
The playoff losses before happened less from a lack of depth than they weren’t playing well at the heart of the game as a team – loose and panicky defensively at evens, which also sinks goaltending
It’s different for the Oilers than other teams because they have Connor, and Leon if he’s playing his best game. And now Bouch. They have to be thinking about being at the top of the contending teams over years, not just this year. Or trying to get a Cup at all costs and putting the next few seasons under water
KH can go out and obliterate what’s left in the cupboard, and hoop next season’s cap. That does not mean plan the parade, there are no guarantees
They have a lot of forwards already, an NHL level player now sits because of adding Perry. They have Bro in the A. They have Kemp who they won’t try who is probably a decent Vinny replacement
They have 4 goalies in the system playing well. And the chances of those goalies playing well in Edmonton is much higher than before because the defensive play is so much tighter
If KK doesn’t want DH at C, they could use a better 4th line centre. They can get by with the rest. Maybe they need another depth D, but that players has to be better than what’s on the farm or what’s the point? Another Murray, not worth it
This will be almost impossible.
Even if they were to make an effort to leave some cap space to reduce bonus overages (which they won’t – they will try and improve at the deadline), it would be very hard to accomplish.
For example, if they sent Foegele out today, that doesn’t remove $2.75MM from the year end cap calcuation. He’s been on the roster for apx 60% of the season and he’d count apx $1.8MM on the year end cap calculation, plus 40% of the AAV for the player replacing him on the roster.
All valid points, but the front offices of the Golden Knights and Lightnings of the world didn’t factor in next year’s cap overages and prospects, and they’re all etched on the cup now. With what this fan base has endured, and what they’ve accomplished here this year, I’d definitely be going all in. The path to the cup is wide open, and if this team had just played .500 hockey at the start, we’d be right near the top of the standings and have games at hand. I’m a conservative guy by nature, but seriously, worry about next year in the summer. If ever a dressing room earned some help, it’s this team right now.
Well, except for last season, and until next season, right?
I am never an advocate for moves without regard to the future and I know Holland isn’t either.
I’m not saying stand pat and do nothing but its tough to see the type of “big move” that would make sense with having to open cap room to make any more, likely pay extra for retention, acquisition cost, lack future with value, etc.
There isn’t a big trade that doesn’t come with risk to the current team’s chemistry – be it Foegle traded or Kulak out or Ceci moved off Nurse’s side (they’ve played ALOT together over the last few years).
The Leafs made so many trades last deadline, they all seemed to help the team but dynamics in the current locker room matter too, right?
The wife was not impressed by the requirement to not wash the day game outfit since December 19 and, now, having to wait another 10 plus days, and likely quite a few more, until a wash is permitted……
The weather is nice — you can certainly air the outfit outside without messing with the mojo, no?
Could’ve been worse. Could’ve been lucky underwear…
Underwear would fit well with
“The wife was not impressed..”
I’m imagining your gameday outfit = a Starfleet uniform?
What colour is Starfleet’s Legal Division?
Ha. Just messin’ with ya.
You’re the goods, OriginalPouzar. Never change.
hang it in the sun.
works every time.
Putting them in the freezer works too.
I’ve been updating this every week on my twitter feed since Dec 1.
Reposting here if you don’t follow me there.
December 1st:
WC standings Dec 1/23 using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
Pacific
LAK 9 (due to less gp than VGK)
VGK 10
VAN 7
Central
COL 9
DAL 8
WPG 4
Wildcard
STL 3
ARI 2
Out of playoffs
CGY 0
NSH 0
SEA -2
EDM -3
MIN -3
ANA -5
CHI -7
SJS -11
Today:
WC standings as of Jan 28/24 using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
Pacific
VAN 22
EDM 14
VGK 14
Central
WPG 18
COL 18
DAL 17
Wildcard
LAK 7
STL 5
Out of playoffs
NSH 4
SEA 2
ARI 1
CGY 0
MIN -2
ANA -13
SJS -19
CHI -20
Thanks WG. Good to see you pop by. Always a blessing.
What a difference 2 months can make. Unless you’re Calgary, continuing to do what they do best.
So based on that, the current Delta is thus:
PACIFIC
VAN 15
EDM 17
VGK 4
CENTRAL
WPG 14
COL 9
DAL 9
WILDCARD
LAK -2
STL 2
OUT OF PLAYOFFS
NSH 4
SEA 4
ARI -1
CAL 0
MIN 1
ANA -8
SJS -8
CHI -13
Top two in Pacific are separating themselves, as are top three in Central. Vegas is a bad streak away from being very worried about LA and Seattle. Both LA and St Louis should be watching over their shoulders at Nashville and Seattle, currently. I suspect Vegas holds on to the third spot, we have a chance to catch Vancouver when their PDO pony has to stop and graze. Winnipeg is likely to take the Central and I think Nashville and Seattle push out LA and St Louis from the playoffs. If that happens, we are looking at the following matchups for first three rounds:
EDM-nas
VAN-vgk
WPG-sea
col-DAL
EDM-van
WPG-dal
EDM-wpg
I am hoping for great performances from the Canadian teams in the West this year! All three look very strong.
Catching Vancouver is unlikely in my opinion.
Of course, the Oilers current place in the standings was more than unlikely 10 weeks ago.
Sure, the Nucks will likely come down to earth a bit but they’d need to crater similar to the Kings/Knight for the Oilers to catch them, realisticially.
I find it hard to see anything other than Oilers/Knights first round.
We have games in hand and the last three weeks of the season will get very interesting. Last 8 games Vancouver gets Vegas twice and Edmonton once (4 point games) Arizona twice, LA, Calgary and a tough Winnipeg team. Vegas will get Vancouver twice, Edmonton once, Arizona, Minny, Colorado, chicago and Anaheim.
Over the same stretch we have 10 games. San Jose, Arizona twice, Calgary, St Louis, Dallas, Colorado twice and Vegas and Vancouver once each. If it is close at that time, it could get very intense.
Vegas expects Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, Ben Hutton, Michael Amadio and Daniil Miramaniv to return from injury after the break.
William Carrier is uncertain and Jack Eichel not until early March.
The 11-0-0 clean sweep winning of January does have me excited for Lowetides February prediction.
Lots of back to backs & 3 in 4, tougher opponents, travel etc.
But a wagon is a wagon.
Can’t win every game & I don’t care that much about the Penguins all time record.
As a fan base we’ve always wanted to believe our team was a contender in spite of the previous limitations or underlying issues.
Watching them win low scoring games with attention to defense & brilliant goaltending is so so gratifying.
My imagination running wild!
”I don’t care that much about the Penguins all time record”
… either did I… until yesterday at approx 4:30 pm mountain time.
That the next opponent is currently wounded, caused this team great harm last post-season and is the next target in sight for the Pacific Division race should have everyone’s apt attention in Oil Country.
This club needs to be laser-focused and have on their sharpest steel-toed boots to use for enthusiastic flaxen paladin stomping at every opportunity.
Vegas is vulnerable, as is LA, and Anaheim is Anaheim. If we can take care of Vegas and LA properly I don’t see a probable loss until either Dallas or Boston. No telling how high this can fly!
My guess is VEG-ANA-LA 3-0
DET 1-0
STL-DAL-ARI 2-1
BOS-MIN-CAL-LA-STL3-2
Total 9-3 18 points in 12 games.
I know. I know. Oiler coloured glasses and all that… but if you’re going to dream, dream in Technicolor. Dreaming in B&W is for either cowards or for artistic pretension.
We’re getting greedy, but honestly who could blame us?
These two young goaltenders will break a lot of hearts if they are the goaltending tandem going into the playoffs.
Pressure is a thing and playoffs amps it up to an 11.
Just my 2 cents worth.
I’ll give you 1 cent for it
I was thinking dos centimos (about 0.14 cents Canadian), being in Mexico.
Yeah, that’s worth remembering. Skinner was the Calder runner-up last year, but disappointed in the playoffs.
Playoff hockey is a different beast. I’m going to enjoy the current run, especially with the improved defense, but I’m not going to plan the parade anytime soon.
The last time the Oilers faced the pressure of being a Stanley Cup favourite, they started the season 2-9-1.
I’d say Skinner is a different beast from what he was. He was always chill, but I would say his game has matured.
Pickard ain’t young.
One of those young goaltenders is 31 years old.
The other had his first taste of NHL playoff hockey last year.
The goaltending is solid and an area of strength going into the dog days of the season.
Since pennies were abandoned years ago, $0.02 generally gets rounded down to $0.00.
Yet the old expression remains.
If they can find a way to move Campbell out, then I’d have all day for the Flower. No long term commitment and Fleury is not going to phased by coming in as a backup in the playoffs if needed. Amazing guy to have on your room and in a tandem with your young starter.
Except he’s specifically stated he wouldn’t waive to go somewhere just to be a contingency plan. He wants to be the guy, and on a contender, if he’s traded.
Inflation has made opinions essentially worthless.
They may be US-based…..
You can e-transfer 2 cents pretty easily!
Do you think Skinner having been through the experience once will help with this?
Sure, experience helps a lot. 2024 Skinner > 2023 Skinner.
One of the reasons the Leafs perpetually choke every year is the sheer amount of pressure put on them.
Fuhr would let in some softies and then bar the door, he didn’t let it get to him.
Can Skinner do that? Don’t know, but he hasn’t proved he can (yet).
1A/1B Skinner takes some pressure off. If he is in a tandem he knows he has some support.
Frankly I don’t care about the current win streak, other than it putting the Oil back into contention.
a 50 regulation game winning streak doesn’t mean squat come the playoffs (See last year Bruins with the best winning record).
Is a goalie good, or great even, because of the current winning streak? Perhaps, he has stolen a game or two during this run.
Was 15 game start of the season Skinner bad because of the horrific start?
Same guy. Different results.
EVERYONE is good when the team is winning hahahahaha. Yet the opposite is true when they lose.
I’d feel safer with a Veteran guy and Skinner in a tandem. Campbell as the veteran guy is a risky move.
Please allow me to introduce myself
I’m a man of wealth and taste
I’ve been around for a long, long year
Stole many a man’s soul and fate
Cup or bust indeed LT… yeah yeah!
Haikus are a hoot!
Why the grumpy downvotes though?
Call the fun police.
Prospectoro!
The House of Stone gets the spotlight squarely upon him.
One suspects his season hasn’t gone the way that he–or the Oilers–had envisioned. He has put up 13-17-30 in 43 games, which puts him in a tie for 8th in team scoring. (To be fair, Ottawa made three trades that brought in higher-scoring players.)
He is still getting his SOG’s with almost 4 per game on average. His shooting percentage is way down from last year though:
’21-’22: 18 G on 159 SOG (11.3%)
’22-’23: 37 G on 244 SOG (15.2%)
’23-’24: 13 G on 161 SOG (8.1%)
Is this year just rotten puck luck, or was last year the aberration? Has he been fighting through injury? As our host likes to say, we are not aware of what we are not aware.
Stonehouse gets a shot at redemption when the puck drops at 4 p.m. Morinville time.
Hmmmm… On the Beach. Two artists come to mind. Neil Young and Chris Rea. I’m thinking LT is tilting at Neil, but given his liking for niche British music (The Jam) it’s not impossible that he means Chris Rea’s song ‘On the Beach ‘ which has an earworm guitar riff that will drive you mad.
The thing that has impressed me most is the way they have won. There have been points in certain games where we were lucky, but no lucky games. It could be argued that without good goalering of their own, the Oilers would have won a few more by more goals.
I’m thinking, at the moment, the Knoblauch’s in game adjustments are very good – which speaks to a very good simple system that can be easily adapted. And the 3rd period lockdowns are something new.
While we shouldn’t be planning the parade, we also shouldn’t sell ourselves short. We’re full value. There was one game where, to my eye, Nurse regressed for two periods back to the no-look ring around the boards. It was so noticeable because he hasn’t been playing like this since the coaching change.
We’re making a lot of teams very nervous at the moment.
I wrote the Avs are not great defensively and have wobbly goalers, and a good deadline would make them a harder out
Later I thought the other teams must be thinking ‘what if the Oilers have a good deadline?’
Already a 400 lb gorilla
Colorado’s deadline might add Gabriel Landeskog. Hell of a pickup.
Doubt he plays this year. Big difference between some light skating and putting full stress on your cartilage transplant
It’s much more likely that Landeskog’s career is done.
Who hasn’t played for 2 years on wonky knees.
Connor Brown 2.0
I hope Landeskog never scores again, either.
Bo Byram and Arturri Lehkkonen returned to the Avalanche lineup this week bolstering their top 6 and second pairing D.
Its likely Val Nichushkin will return from his player safety sojourn by the playoffs and they signed Zach Parise a couple of days ago.
They’ve performed remarkably well all things considered.
Byrum is constantly injured. He’ll probably get injured again in the playoffs, if not before that. Bandaid.
Nichushkin’s off-ice issues are having a bigger impact than his on ice-impact. Distraction.
Makar, MacK and Rantanen are having ridiculous regular seasons … but things tighten up in the playoffs. I’m not worried at all about the Avs, cause I doubt they get past Dallas or Winnipeg.
I’ve been reading about Byram “coming back” for what seems like 4 years now.
You’re probably right, but I think many readers would think first of the much more famous novel, no? I know I was a little taken aback. Was thinking, that can’t be right.
The Neil Young reference is equally bleak, so probably not it either.
The best selling musical reference is actually a ditty by Cliff Richard. Letting down your countryman there, JT. 😉
Lol, Sir Cliff was a little before my time. He was solidly into his Christian xmas music while I was growing up. No ‘Summer Holiday’ for me! My Dad liked The Shadows, and Hank Marvin was a great guitar player.
Only LT knows, and his ways are mysterious.😆
I was thinking of the book too. Kinda grim.
“On the Beach” is a novel by Nevil Shute.
And there is “One the Beach”, an album by Neil Young.
Lowetide is signalling despair(Young) and impending doom(Shute).
Or, that the majority of the Oilers will be on the beach for the next week?
Only in a town called malice would the Jam be described as “niche British music”!
Thanks. I am British, so I try to frame things on here from a North American perspective – the mod movement probably isn’t that well known here. But good music is good music, no matter the genre. I’m writing this down in the tube station at midnight.
…seated on a Vespa.
Your on the road to hell.
Hey, to the people that down voted, Road To Hell is a Chris Rea song.
One’s own stats be damned!
Follow Captain’s lead – glory
comes with shiny prize!
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when it comes to ceci. When I watch him I see one of the worst puck handlers in the league. The team will have a great cycle and then it comes to ceci and he immediacy kills it. If he has the puck in his own zone I know with certainty it will be turned over more than not. And yet some think we don’t need to upgrade ceci. I think nurse isn’t getting enough credit for dragging this guy along all year
I don’t see him that bad, but I agree that while he’s ‘serviceable’, I’m not sure if he was a UFA he’d be getting more than 1 M and certainly wouldn’t be a top 4 on a good team
Puck movement is key, always has been. Unless you can transport which isn’t ideal if the passing isn’t also there, and our man isn’t great at the first and can’t do the second
Not to mention the things written about him be challenged at defending the blue and retrievals
Nurse would be bunch better with a fully capable partner, elite isn’t needed, just all tools
You don’t think the Oilers are a good team? 14 straight games letting in 2 goals or less isn’t enough to be considered a good team?
Tough crowd
Oilers are the first team in at least a decade to achieve such sustained defensive success. 18 GA in 14 GP.
Obviously, their defense-first top-4 D isn’t good enough & needs to be upgraded.🤔
I wish I had a loonie for every time I’ve read or heard the words “Ceci” & “upgrade” in the same sentence this season. I could retire to a tropical island.
Cody Ceci has played 752 NHL games, averaging 20:41 per, a sure marker of a top 4 defenceman. Only in Pittsburgh did he play third pairing, in a reset season.
His next point will be his 200th, of which 180 have come at evens & just 13 on the powerplay.
On the 2023-24 Oilers he is #4 with a bullet, 4th highest cap hit, 4th iin ice time, 4th in scoring, T-3 in plus. For the third straight year in Edmonton he is top 2 in QualComp. He’s on the first PK unit & is a near-constant there because he’s rarely in the box (just 10 PiM, bang on his career average of 18 PiM per 82 GP).
Does he lose races to the puck? Yes. Does he saw off a lot of puck battles & gum up the works once he gets there? Also yes. Does he block a lot of shots? Yes. Does he clear a lot of dangerous rebounds & loose pucks in the slot? Yes, perhaps his most underrated skill.
Does he get a lot of love or even respect from Oilers’ fans? No, or at least, not enough.
I am really looking forward to the CoH article that compares all the D under Woody this season vs these last 16 games.
Hi Bruce,
appreciate the feedback and appreciate your commitment to defending the player. I was the same last year but have my limits and 2 years of holding this team back is it.
puck IQ has ceci, nurse, bouche, and Ekholm all around 32% TOI against elites. Bouchard and Ekholm around 64%. Nurse and Ceci 50%. huge difference there. and imo not good enough considering how the rest of team is doing. I think its difficult to separate nurse and Ceci numbers because we know they are taking much tougher minutes together than when apart so I go off eye test on who’s the weak link and to me thats Ceci (unscientific I know).
I dont love the giveaway stat to be honest with you, which is why I used the term “turn over” which captures any change in possession instead of the limited giveaway term. bouchard leads giveaways but also has the puck on his stick constantly. to me Ceci is more the victim of pressure and subjected to takeaways. I dont know if there is a way to look up victims of takeaways.
Do you not think those numbers lack context. Ekholm/Bouchard have been getting the McDavid minutes and Nurse/Ceci have been getting the Drai minutes – that fact proves that Nurse/Ceci have a tougher job than Ekholm/Bouch and likely accounts for their goal share gap.
Playing with McDavid/Nuge vs. Drai/Kane against similar top comp are different levels of difficulty.
So a fan seeing a weakness and wanting an upgrade so one’s team can be it’s best, is disrespecting a player and not valuing their efforts and career?
I will point out that lesser skating and puck skills leads to a greater need to block shots and clear dangerous rebounds, especially when your partner could use more help defending entries and getting the puck up the ice
Ceci is the remaining glaring vulnerability on the OIlers, particularly because Bouchard is also defending challenged. One can only have one (clear choice Bouchard).
Eichel and Vegas ate Ceci alive in the playoffs. He was a turnstile against Colorado the year before.
If one is looking for most likely cause why the Oilers might lose in the playoffs, it is Ceci.
Give Ceci some credit, he was nursing an injury while playing those games vs VGK.
Not what I meant. YMMV
This is a wild statement to make about a top 4 RHD.
So who is your realistic target for a 2RD target at the deadline?
Id take a hard look at Fabbro. hes played a decent amount with josi and shown well
Why would Nashville want to trade Fabbro?
I think so. He was a healthy scratch beginning this year and he’s an arb eligible rfa after this year
He’s been healthy scratched 10 times this year, as recently as Jan 20. He averages 18 minutes a night & has never been as high as 20. Sounds more like 5-6-7 than top 4.
that healthy scratch should tell us hes likely available. 33.5% TOI against elites ( same as Ceci) with strong results relative to team. would be a good option.
I think you are taking the wrong information from the healthy scratching………….
Look at his results. He and Nurse play against the other teams best.
I have looked at his results. they’re the worst among Dmen. Bouch and Nurse play same role according to puckiq and their numbers are lightyears better. I also look at them play and I rarely see Ceci make the right play with they puck. he turns it over constantly
Giveaways per 60, Oilers D:
Bouchard 2.80
Ekholm 2.40
Desharnais 2.16
Nurse 2.14
Kulak 1.91
Broberg 1.13
Ceci 0.85
Good Morning Bruce,
Out of curiosity, it would be interesting to see the fLames D by the same measure, as we’ve talked about potential TDL targets on that roster and that in such a scenario Ceci or Kulak would likely have to go the other way.
here you go, although in my opinion giveaways aren’t a very useful way to evaluate players. its essentially just a proxy for how much they handle the puck
Noah Hanifin 2.452
MacKenzie Weegar 2.483
Rasmus Andersson 1.654
Chris Tanev 1.92
I found the stats on moneypuck
https://moneypuck.com/stats.htm
I keep coming back to Andersson as the only RHD that could be an Ekholm-like upgrade at the deadline.
Legit top pairing RHD, with way better puck skills than Ceci.
Good size, and good skating. A bit of a dirty prick on the ice (that’s a good thing).
Has been on the other side of playoff war recently, and won’t be intimidated by the pace and aggression of the playoffs.
2 years left on a cap friendly deal after this season.
I’d be willing to send out the 2024 1st round pick, Ceci and Bourgault for Andersson.I doubt Conroy has enough juice with their ownership group to send away Andersson though.
I know everyone here keeps looking at Tanev, but he’s been playing 3rd pairing RHD for a Flames team that is not making the playoffs. He’s 34 now with a long history of injuries … asking him to increase his work rate to 20-22 minutes a night in the playoffs is not realistic.
And if hypothetically the choice comes down to using the 2024 1st to send Campbell away vs. acquiring Tanev … I’d rather use it to get Campbell’s contract off the books.
If you don’t handle the puck much the Giveaways per 60 are low?
correct. can’t give away a puck if you dont have it
Unless the reason you don’t handle it much is because you quickly give it away!
I still beleive you cannot look at giveaways in isolation, but must look also at what you are doing with the puck when you dont give it away?
Perhaps a giveaway/60 to primary assist/60 ratio? But do you count assists from shots tipped in this?
For what its worth, Bouchard has 32 assists to cecis 13, both get similar ice time ish. And bouchards give aways / 60 are slightly higher than 3 times that of cecis. But it sounds less egregious when you also consider that bouchard contributes more when he does have the puck. Like a player that never makes mistakes, but is unable to create anything of value, may look good in the giveaway category.
Giveaways are a bad stat. It doesn’t tell one much, if anything. Are you trying to argue that Ceci is better than Bouchard? -)
Not at all. I am citing an admittedly-imperfect stat to counter the unsupported claim that Ceci “turns it over constantly”.
He doesn’t handle the puck as much as the others, but he is no turnover machine.
watch him in Dzone with puck next couples games. its shocking how often the other team possesses the puck shortly after.
Considering Bruce is involved in a project for the last number of years that tracks every scoring chance against (and for) and provides mistake culpability, I think he has watched Ceci very closely in the defensive zone over his time as an Oiler.
Playing top competition with McDavid is not equatable to playing top competition without McDavid.
They do not play the same role
Maybe you are taking crazy pills as this doesn’t seem based in reality (moreso on the turnover in the d-zone than not helping in the o-zone).
For me, more evidence of how criminally underrated this player is.
Heres another thing it would be good to know. TO/touch in the d zone vs successful exit with team possession.. A pass to another dman so that they can exit is a nuetral play. Value in keeping the puck, but reliant on others to exit zone.
How long your touch is seems irrelevant to me. (A 30s dipsy doodle followed by a TO is still a TO, vs a quick one touch pass that leads to a successful exit would be superb.)
I was thinking, reading the debate over coaching vs “polarized” goalie stats yesterday….
As a tender myself. I cannot overstate the impact of a strong back pressure on an attacker. A player with a HD in the high slot with no back pressure is so different than one with heavy back pressure. So even if the defender plays him well, no f1 coming hard on him from behind, creates so much more challenge as a goalie.
Watching the oilers has me believing this is one of the main causes for the turnaround in “HD sv%” and Skinner being top verse bottom in that stat. The trust and confidence to commit (or even overcommit at times) would be possible with that pressure coming back.
Theory.
The HD sv% (even med danger) cannot account for back pressure but it is real.
This also could be another layer of the onion that is goaltender sv% vs team impact. I am not sure any advanced stat is / or can account for that?
Thoughts?
It was a key to Woody’s success too. It’s what good teams do… never cheat for full offense, even when you’re in the offensive zone.
Yup, we talked alot about the back pressure and “5-man units” right after Woody and Manson were hired.
I would think there are zero NHL head coaches that don’t break forward support and back-pressure but, of course, there are varied levels of effectiveness on ice.
I don’t think Woody was ever able to get near the level of consistency that the new coach has (acknowledging its only been like 30 games) and, its not just consistency from game to game but from shift to shift.
I also think its not just about the coach getting the players to “buy in” but there are structural matters than help them implement and, for me, I don’t discount the clear offensive zone structural changes and the use of the high cycle and generally having forwards high – I would think this helps them on the back-check support.
Thank you for this post.
I think most of us (i.e. me at least) have relaized how important the forward support/back pressure is for the d-men and their ability to gap up, etc., however, I never thought about its effect on the goalie directly when facing a chance.
Good info.
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