2023-24 Game 47: Oilers at Ducks

The Edmonton Oilers were the saddest of organizations from 2010 through 2015. The only day of the year the franchise could give the ‘high hat’ to the rest of the NHL was on draft lottery day. You see the spoils here. Connor McDavid at 1.50 pts-game, Leon Draisaitl at 1.17. Hell, Taylor Hall and the Nuge are sporting quality numbers more than a dozen years after their first NHL games.

There is some disappointment here. Kailer Yamamoto priced himself out of a sweet role on RW with one of the Glimmer Twins (most often Leon), or more accurately couldn’t cover the bet his salary increase required of him. There is success outside the first round too, in the person of Ryan McLeod.

You know, one of the reasons Edmonton’s drafts since 2015 are perceived as being poor is the logjam created by trades, free agency and those high selections. 97, 29, 93 are all still here, as is Darnell Nurse, Vincent Desharnais, Stuart Skinner, Evan Bouchard and Dylan Holloway. At any given time, depending on the No. 7 defenseman (or if the Oilers are in possession of a No. 7 defenseman), the homegrown Oilers combine for about 40 percent of the roster. That doesn’t include Sam Gagner, for your information.

What might we see from an organization that had a bunch of high picks, 40 percent of the roster already established as an integral part of the organization, and a fan base that didn’t think the amateur scouts were producing?

THE ATHLETIC

• New Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
• New DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
• Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
• DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
• Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
• Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
• Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
• DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
• Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
• DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
• Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
• Lowetide: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
• DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
• Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
• DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
• Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
• DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

• On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
• At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
• Actual January results: 0-1-0, 0 points in 1 game
• Oilers in 2023-24: 29-16-1, 59 points in 46 games

The Oilers have put themselves in position to secure third place in the Pacific Division and could go even higher. The wins must keep coming. I’m confident in this team.

One of the things we’ll talk about tomorrow is the tweaks of the lines and pairings. I’m not convinced any of the adjustments will last, and some might not see the light of day. I do think Evan Bouchard is emerging as a bigger force at five-on-five, and a Kulak-Bouchard pairing with increased offensive zone starts might be an interesting wrinkle.

WHAT MIGHT WE SEE

From 2013-2022, a full decade of drafts, Edmonton has produced some of the best talent on the planet. No extra credit, of course, but let’s be fair and list all of the men who are currently in the NHL and their spot on team depth charts.

1. Connor McDavid, No. 1 center
2. Leon Draisaitl, No. 1 center (Oilers have two)
3. Stuart Skinner, starting goaltender
4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, No. 1 LW
5. Taylor Hall, No. 1 LW (injured)
6. Darnell Nurse, top-four defense
7. Evan Bouchard, top-four defense
8. Ethan Bear, top-four defense
9. John Marino, top-four defense
10. Ryan McLeod, No. 3 center
11. Jesse Puljujarvi, No. 3 RW
12. Dylan Holloway, No. 3 LW
13. Vincent Desharnais, third-pairing defense
14. Mike Kesselring, third-pairing defense
15. William Lagesson, No. 7 defenseman
16. Caleb Jones, No. 7 defenseman
17. Kailer Yamamoto, No. 4-5 RW

This doesn’t include names like Philip Broberg or Phil Kemp. These are men who are on NHL rosters and active. So, over the 10-year period, the scouts have found 17 NHL players.

Of those, 10 are serving in what I call foundation roster spots (top two lines, top two pairings, starting goalie and No. 3 center). Four of those foundation pieces (Skinner, Bear, Marino, McLeod) were chosen outside the first round of the draft. In all, eight of the 17 (the previous four, plus Vincent Desharnais, Mike Kesselring, William Lagesson and Caleb Jones) arrived via a selection after the first-round concluded.

This does not include the myriad traded selections. I didn’t cheat to make it look good. In fact, if I started in 2012 and went to 2021, Erik Gustafsson and Jujhar Khaira (potentially) could have been added.

For me, almost all of the complaints about Oilers scouts are directly tied to trades by the general manager. Don’t like the fact that the Oilers passed on Jasper Wallstedt? Please point me to the scout who made the deal.

The Oilers drafting over these years hasn’t been perfect, and I’ll be honest it looks to me as though the kids in Bakersfield with the best chance to make a show of it in the NHL are rugged souls Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe.

That understood, I’m thrilled at the smart draft bets that are Carter Savoie, Tyler Tullio, Maxim Berezkin, Xavier Bourgault, Matvey Petrov, Shane Lachance. You have to draft talent, and a big part of the puzzle is offense.

Math can help. It isn’t the only thing. I had Ethan Bear at No. 38 in 2015, based only on math. The Oilers had to go out and find that man, and they did. I know we all have our favourites but the draft is not a purchase at the store and it is not an exact science.

Every man who has held a job in NHL scouting has a track record that includes the good and the bad. Bob Green is often taken to task over Griffin Reinhart and that’s fair (even though he was a monster talent in junior). Green also watched over much of the success you see on the NHL ice across the league today. I believe he was all over Stuart Skinner (as an example) based on post-draft comments.

I miss the days when we could have a nuanced conversation. Where the bad was aggressively debated but there was also time to let the sunshine in and acknowledge the good. In the life of a franchise, there are many good and bad things.

Tyler Wright got fired, and I assume there were reasons. My list did not favour Dylan Holloway but he looks like a player. A real test of an Oilers fan today is acknowledging that the full record on Tyler Wright’s drafting for the Oilers is not yet complete. I’m not certain many of you reading this would agree, and for that I am so very sad for the future of nuanced discourse.

A busy Friday show, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Steve Lansky to talk Super Bowl and the Oilers, Tyler Yaremchuk with the latest on the Rumour Mill from Daily Faceoff and Dan Israel, Executive Producer and Co-Host, Chiefs Radio Network. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.