Not long ago, I posted this photo and someone in the comments section mentioned I had used it several times over the last few months. The author of the comment asked what could it mean? I will tell you. Read on.
THE ATHLETIC
- New Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect defenceman Max Wanner’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Kris Knoblauch’s lineup decisions just pan out as Oilers get back to winning ways
- Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
- DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
- Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
- DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
- Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- Lowetide: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
- Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual January results: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 30-17-1, 61 points in 48 games
The Oilers could have dealt a massive blow to the LAK last night, a loss would make the climb back into the top three in the Pacific Division extremely difficult. It was not to be, but, as we discussed yesterday, Edmonton had to put in a major effort to get past the Anaheim Ducks on Friday. LAK played a desperate game for a new coach. Oilers didn’t play well. I witnessed the Miracle (the hell it was, it was Unger’s fault) on Manchester. Last night doesn’t begin to approach that level of frustration. We’re on to the DRW and another road trip.
THE NUMBERS
The Oilers are such a talented team, and yet games like this happen frequently. Is there a lesson, or a fix? Or is this just the results of a tired team playing a desperate one? Hell if I know. I can say that the blind passes need to be ironed out, and the reaction by Edmonton’s impact players (frustration) shows the plan to play at the outer marker of the rules (and beyond) works against these stars.
Luck is a big damned deal. Goaltending is also a big damned deal. The Oilers weren’t at their best last night, and the Kings have a fine team with an emerging superstar (Quinton Byfield) plus miles and miles of young and inexpensive talent. The Pacific Division isn’t going to be easy for the rest of this decade and into the next one.
I can’t get angry at any single individual player about last night’s game. Connor McDavid couldn’t get the puck to dance, and the Draisaitl line was absolutely robbed by David Rittich. Evan Bouchard lacked attention to detail, Darnell Nurse had some wobble, Mattias Ekholm did not have his best night.
Ever since the world began, some swinging Dick leaves the rink and says “you know, if one of those early chances goes in, maybe it would have been different” and it’s so boring and cliche but I think that’s true about last night’s game. The streak is dead. Time to start another. The Condors were also losing, but there are interesting things happening.
THE LEAF ON THE SIDEWALK
On Tuesday, August 8, 2023, at 5:38pm, I took the photo of that fallen leaf. It was about one mile from my house. I started walking every day around April, my mental health person suggested it was a good way to deal with anxiety. I don’t talk about it much, but losing Jo-Anne was the hardest thing I’ve ever had to deal with in my 62 years on the planet. I loved her so much, she was everything, my north star. From November to April, I was full of negative energy. There was fear, distress, depression, self pity, an extreme sense of loss. If it weren’t for my kids, I don’t know what I would have done.
From November to April my life was broken. I would wake up at 3 every morning. I would think about Jo-Anne. Walking was something I could do whenever the urge hit me, so I started walking at 3 in the morning, or 8am, or 4pm. My wife was a runner and a walker, and I joined her many times, but April 2022 was the first time I made it a lifestyle choice.
It saved me. I began doing more, different things, activities I’d never done before. I went to garage sales and sold stuff! That’s not my jam. In July, I went to an Edmonton Riverhawks game with a friend, and had a great time. I forgot my pain, at least for a moment, and felt there might be a way forward.
Then, on August 8, I went for my walk. It had just rained, the air has that distinct bouquet after a rain, I’ve always loved it. The sun was trying to find its way to me. I was in a genuinely good mood, I was smiling.
Hope had returned to me.
That’s when I saw the fallen leaf and took the photo. It is hope, it is finding your way in the most difficult circumstances. I’ll never be the man I was when Jo-Anne walked beside me. I will be the best man I can be in the time I have left. I have hope for better days. That’s the story of the photo. I posted it today because this Oilers team has produced the highest highs and the past 15 years have included the lowest lows.
Hope. This could be the year for the Edmonton Oilers. Not the perfect Stanley, like the ones we (incorrectly) remember so fondly. But a real blood and guts, balls out, Craig Simpson scores from the slot and is drilled so hard from behind in the same instant his career is cut in half blood and guts Stanley. That’s what I hope for you. I also hope to be around to write about it.
It’s not what we want, but there is permanence in change. I think it shadows acceptance in the stages of grief; but I will not pretend to understand something I’ve yet to experience, and dread instinctually.
This was beautiful. Inspiring, and onion cutting, and all I can say is thank you for sharing.
My Haiku:
Sunshine dreaming now
Over kings and rooks smashing
The board with lament
Thank you for sharing so much with us LT!
I hope you feel the empathy and compassion that comes back to you.
Keep on walkin’ in the free world!
LT. with love. Never met you. Feel your pain.
It will never be the same.
I hope for sunnier days.
Shanahan is too brilliant for his own good. Overly reliant on the cleverness of scheming. On the critical play in OT, Chris Jones was not fooled by the scheme. Hightower all over again.
Coming out of halftime throwing was just dumb, dumb, dumb.
My condolences, munny.
Devastating finish.
Kyle Shanahan reputation intact.
Classic
Quite a football game. Damn.
Shanahan has stopped running the damn football again. 28-3
Exactly
I went to an infomercial and a football game broke out.
Nick Taylor 🇨🇦 birdies three of the last four holes in the 4th round as well as both extra holes to win the WM Phoenix Open.
No-one would objectively deny that the Boston Bruins as a legit contender for the Stanley Cup.
The Boston Bruins had 7 shots after two periods last night on their way to losing to the Capitals, one game removed from being dominated to the tune of 4-1 by the flames.
Losing two for three, in any manner, is not indicative – ALL TEAMS go through games and period of play that is not representative of the team and its potential.
I think the unfathomable winning streak made us forget for a while how hard it actually is to win in this league. It didn’t seem remotely hard during the streak (from a fan’s perspective at least). Losses to good teams like VGK and LAK are reminders of how difficult the path to winning Stanley is going to be. It is important to get these reminders now, and to build on the strength this team already has. I like that KK is trying out different combinations and seeing now what alternatives can work and which cannot.. don’t know why people are so crusty about last night’s game?
Not wrong idealistically, but I don’t think the win sandwich between the 2 recent losses is much to celebrate.
Zegras 1C
McTavish 2C
Killorn 2LW
Lottery team with basically an entire top 6 line missing and team needs 3rd period mcdavid heroics to pull off victory gp into third trailing.
The two losses:
Both against division rivals both against the kind of system play that is likely game plan they have to overcome to really threaten for cup.
Vegas game: I watched it twice. Effectively cut off any attempt to skate puck through middle of ice in offensive zone. Had great counter attack with way so many odd man rushes almost pulled off if not for scrambled last minute heroics by oilers (which worked but no better than a coin flip there’s not a penalty taken I’d that scenario was replayed).
Not going to bother with kings game besides saying while the dog pile hacks at goalmouth probably register as high danger – they are basically the lowest quality high danger for the most part. I’m both those losses the opponent had a significant advantage when it came to high danger chances with clear posession/space to actually score.
Mcdavid and Hyman definitely works. I think its fair to question if it might be more impactful to utilize nuge on another line.
Heater or no, both foegle and McLeod were noticably more impactful on that line with drai.
I’m glad they got perry – but Corey perry is not the answer to the question: who played top 6 rw for the 2023-2024 Stanley cup champions?
Kane McDavid Hyman
McLeod drai foegle
Holloway nuge perry
Janmark ryan brown
I love the Gagner story but I’m fine with him as the wildcard 13th forward who you can rely on to competently fill in almost anywhere in lineup if injury requires.
Hi Lowetide, long time reader of your blog, very rare poster. I have met you however, at the Transit for your book signing. I also walk a lot (in St. Albert), for the same reasons you do. Great exercise, clears the mind, and it’s good to make a point to get outside.
I look forward to you blog everyday!
Regarding the Oilers, I’m wondering if they will bring Broberg up before the trade deadline, to see how he plays, and also so he gets some games in, so if the Oilers need to play him in the playoffs, he’s at least played recently in the NHL.
Thanks for the kinds words. We’ve probably passed each other, McCurdy walks too!!
As for Broberg, it would be wise to bring him to the NHL now in my opinion.
Agreed on Broberg – what would your plan for D-group deployment be?
I think rotating rest, give these veterans a chance to sit a game in rotation. I don’t think 7-11 is required and I don’t think Broberg is a worry as a third pair option. So run him, rest others.
What would be the cap implications of this suggestion? Who would you rotate out? Ceci and Kulak? Desharnais? I agree that Broberg deserves to play and the org needs to give him time before playoffs. However, when the D pairs were the same for such a long time, they all mentioned how helpful it was to have the same partner and know their tendencies. This was very evident on the ice. I wonder what it would do to have different partnerships regularly.
Oilers have room to call up a 7D today. If they called one up today and made no other changes to the roster until the deadline, they would be able to add an AAV of apx $1.5MM (as opposed to apx $2.3MM if they ran the current roster until then).
They could call Broberg up and waive/send down Gagner (or other) for almost no material change on the cap (Broberg is apx $100K more but the daily portion of that is nominal) – risks having to go 11/7 is there is a late scratch or an injury without time to make a change.
I agree:
100% – 11/7 should not be an option (except for emergency)
100% – I have not worry about Broberg at 3LD.
I also don’t think the management and/or coaching staff do this any time soon.
I am a long-time and staunch Oilers fan. But Katz’ shameful suit against Boyle Street Community Services is making that difficult for me. Is it possible this will lead to some bad Karma for the Oilers?
A little context goes a long way.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/katz-group-launches-court-battle-with-edmonton-homeless-organization-over-5-million-donation-1.7109439
Radko Gudas.
In searching for the next Gudas, I’d unearthed two I quite liked in Scott Mayfield and Artem Zub… only for them to get extended on very reasonable deals. Haven’t been able to find anyone since. So, how about the original hairy-arsed villian?
33 years old. $4MM AAV for this year and two more, NTC.
Absolute stellar fancies on a basement dweller. Tasked with heavy lifting in Disneyland, 37.3% against elites and 34.2% against middle competition. Rels are outstanding — CF%-rel of 6.80% against elites, positive otherwise. DFF%-rels against elites are alongside the ISS in orbit at 12.40%, and again healthily positive otherwise. GF% is just outstanding, almost suspiciously good, against all tiers at 59.3% overall (35-24!), 60% against elites and grits.
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8475462
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/radko-gudas
Anaheim signed him for exactly those reasons and to protect their squad of young stud D.
Why would they trade him?
If you’ve been following along, these reviews aren’t me stumping for any one player.
There must be a point that I’m not seeing.
Do you plan to profile every defensemen in the league?
I see no harm in it. Interesting analysis and it drives conversation.
Oh no question…just wondering why some players are profiled and many others are not.
It’s a cursory look at realistic or oft-mentioned trade targets.
Radko Gudas has been the gold standard RHD that fits this team’s template for exactly one metric forever.
Helps to have a review of the gold standard when comparing others.
Thanks for your interest.
Ah thanks.
Will be interesting to see if it leads anywhere.
How so?
To see if you can identify the next Gudas which seems to be your aim.
As per the above, Mayfield and Zub were the best bets. Acquiring them now is likely as costly/difficult as Gudas himself, due to recent contracts.
I’ve also given a token review of some forwards, as the trade deadline approaches.
The purpose of this exercise, as LT notes above, is to inform local debate (as much with others as myself) while surrounding suitable candidates ahead of the trade deadline.
This is an Oilers blog, after all.
Its much appreciated (and the “intent” does not need to be explained) – its about discussing and having fun doing so.
Maybe we could just talk about how good the kings are for a while. Would that be more enjoyable for you?
Jack Neighbors has 18 goals and 5 assists.
we need someone like that.
Oilers will be fine. They went on a historic run and now everyone wants to beat them.
Trading Ceci for an upgrade has been discussed, trading kulak for an upgrade has been discussed, trading kulak to free space for broberg has been discussed.
Have we discussed trading kulak and ceci for an excellent upgrade, and bringing in broberg as 3ld?
Step 1 is identifying the target D who is a real upgrade.
Step 2 is figuring out what assets have to leave.
A Ceci upgrade would be desirable. But nobody has really identified the target D that makes it worthwhile.
I thought if one played Broberg beside Nurse all year, one would have seen if the only real internal option was viable. They are trying Desharnais at the moment. That may work.
I have not been able to identify the right external target yet.
Ceci is too slow to have value in a trade for Pesce. I would do Pesce as a rental. Ceci and the 2024 1st, and maybe some other stuff, but I doubt Carolina does that. Pesce is more valuable as an own rental for them.
When I was finishing grad school and was looking for a job, on my resume was hobbies. Walking. One of the interviewers asked about it, said walking was not a hobby. Every time I travel I land and go for a long walk, hours. I love to walk around a new city. You find out so much about the place. Last summer I walked the Camino de Santiago, 820km over 35 days. Greatest trip of my life.
Walking is good for the soul.
LT, welcome to the club!
I never thought walking long distances could be such a mind clearing meditation experience.
Art Garfunkel walked across the entire USA and Japan, and Europe?
https://www.artgarfunkel.com/walks.html
His ex partner Paul Simon thought it was “weird”.
RNH
7 even strength goals playing with GOD.
Gagner with a fraction of the time and is not allowed to sit anywhere near McDavid has – 5 goals.
McLeod with far less time has 8 goals
McDavids other winger – is it killing it – on his wing.
When you are gifted time with a God – MUCH is expected.
As OP mentioned, why not shuffle things up a bit on line 1- LW
Nuge is definitely riding coattails
He is but why isn’t that helping him produce more at 5v5?
Time for a shuffle
Nugent-Hopkins has never been a big even strength goalscorer, even as a junior. We had endless discussions about this during his draft year.
The GM, the coach, and the player himself should be emphasizing that he should be shooting more. And goal scoring should be a focus of this off seasons.
He has stopped shooting effectively like a few others have. Last season he was shooting with more authority and trying to score like scorers do, and got 37. Now he’s back to standard muffins and ‘sneaky’ bottom net stuff. His shot volume is also way down. The years he’s scored better he’s shot more – make sense
Last season he spoke about being more aggressive around the net. But it’s not him. He’s a cerebral player, but you can only have so many not quick small cerebral players. This is part of the balance issue I mentioned. Player types. More passive players have to get themselves up to be assertive. They regress back to who they are. Players like Connor are so aggressive they spend effort cooling down as opposed to rising up
The Oilers have too many passive types. They don’t attack the net, they don’t hunger to score, and they don’t score enough. They don’t defend like the bad guy is trying to take their castle. Which is why I commented as others did that while Foegele producing was great, he was likely to return to norms. And he has. He’s passive for a big fast guy and has marginal hands and playmaking ability
The Oilers could really use a player like Guentzel. Smart as a whip and never stops coming, and has the skill to finish. Make that 3 guys
LT, thanks for sharing that story. I have read your blog everyday for years and enjoy them all. You writing is often to me that walk you go on. It is a bit of time that I take for myself to rest my sole. I appreciate you.
I’d dress Gagner no less then 3 straight games with each one of the forwards on the 4th line sitting for a game in the least.
The Oilers need scoring, Gagner for all his worts scores better then the entire 4th line put together. Hell at this point he’s most likely more effective then Holloway.
Foegele’s trade value is plummeting by the period, find a solution.
We need two forwards that bump Janmark Ryan off the roster
If those forwards have to play with Brown, does it matter who the forwards are?
Thank you for writing about your life. You are just a beautiful writer and a better human being.
All of us here are truly thinking about you.
Nobody is panicking…..
But the adage of – “it’s not broken”….
Knoblauch took a hammer to the team that almost made league history. And as others have pointed out, not much reason or evidence provided as to – exactly-why.
Vegas handled them relatively easily without Eichel and Theodore. It is STILL BROKEN.
Focus on the signal, not on the noise.
The definition of insanity…
Important News:
Ryan Holt
@CondorsHolty
·
59m
Sounds like Broberg will be fine.
Thanks OP for the work you do
While this team still has a pretty ridiculous record over the last twenty games there has been a rather troubling development
Janmark 20 games 0 goals 1 assist
Ryan 20 games 1 goal 2 assists
Brown 20 games 0 goals 3 assists
When top players don’t score well we have trouble scoring.
Some people tend to forget that depth scoring was a major factor in the Vegas win last season.
If your top 6 is mostly sawing off against the other team, scoring from the bottom 6 is huge.
Bottom 6 scoring among the WC contenders this season:
WPG 51
DAL 49
VCR 47
LAK 43 (Arvidsson and Lizotte on IR)
VGK 33 (Carrier injured)
COL 29 (Parise with 1 goal in 4 games)
EDM 26 (this includes Foegele and McLeod who did most of their scoring while in the top 6)
Of course, bottom 6 is somewhat fluid but the general picture is that depth scoring matters a lot.
Winnipeg is the poster child for forward balance since their top scorer Mark Schifele has only 43 points but they get scoring from everywhere.
This is why they need a vatrano type for bottom 6 and a top 6 forward for Drai line before addressing D and unless Fleury wants to come here live with the G.
Part of the forwards issue is the D. It’s the first thing Coffey changed was making plays
2 of them can’t, one is usually 3 pair so less consequential, but it affects the bottom 6
And they do need a few bar down shooters up front
Id say suffocating play was a bigger factor
Both can be true at the same time.
Yep.
No goals against Vegas. ( evens)
None against LA
Heavy, even strength , hockey will a big challenge for some of our forwards.
Some forwards ( with some history of this) continue to fade into the background when hockey gets heavy.
The Brown effect impacted all of McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, and MacLeod.
Why would it not impact Janmark and Ryan?
Is Brown’s contribution to a very good PK more valuable than killing any offense on the 4th line?
Do the Oilers stay patient that the turn will come?
Agreed, Brown is the Denver boot.
The sooner he’s pushed out of the lineup, the better. He is not a marginal threat to score.
Holland’s weakness is the old sunk cost fallacy.
Is he any more of a boot or any less of a threat to score than Janmark or Ryan?
I’m at the stage where I’m in favor of inserting the defensively inconsistent Sam Gagner in the lineup but, truth be told, can just as easily make an argument for Janmark or Ryan to come out as I can for Brown. Ryan takes faceoffs but he’s the least important on the PK of the trio.
I almost want to agree with this, but these guys are the Oilers 4th line, and in the last 20 games their on ice GF-GA are:
MJ 4-0
DR 2-4
CB 4-2
Beyond that, the Oilers bottom 6 as a whole has scored 9GF and given up 7GA in the last 20. They’re 56%GF. (this is 5v5 with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge all off).
You don’t actually have to post offense if you’re outscoring. You really don’t.
Janmark hasn’t been on the ice for a GA at evens for almost 20 games…….
A couple losses in 3 games and the Holland haters and Nurse haters and those that are only vocal when things aren’t going great are out in full form.
I read comments that this team is a bubble team at best and true contenders don’t have games like this and with so few shots through half the game, etc.
I would note the Boston Bruins, who all would cite as a true contender, lost 3-0 to a Capitals team much worse than Vegas and, get this, the Bruins had 8 shots through 2 periods of play.
My goodness, elite teams have bad nights and bad stretches.
This is a very good team, an elite team, that is imperfect, they can win 16 straight, they can look poor against bad teams, they can lock down close games, they can blow leads, they can outscore teams, they can struggle to finish. At the end of the day, while they could bow out in the 1st round of the playoffs, the could also win the cup.
Enjoy the ride.
Yep. No notes.
After the Kings lost to the Oilers in the playoffs last year, Drew Doughty said in an interview that they could not wait to play Edmonton again in next year’s playoffs. The Kings are a team that has the Oilers in their sights. The Kings bear a grudge and no one should be surprised by the intensity of their play last night. They are worthy opponents and not to be underestimated. The Oilers can’t afford lackadaisical starts against these guys. They need answer the call with “Drop the puck we are coming after you!”
Does anybody understand what “information needs to be gathered” – I think all the information was there within a 5 second video clip, no?
I mean, I guess there is game context and, while I didn’t watch the game, I presume it was an “intense” or “chippy” geographic rivalry game which is why the youngster took the slapper.
With that said, no matter how the game had been played, no matter if anyone or any player thinks the slapper was in fine or poor form, the actions of Riley are not mitigated and that is a clear suspension.
The question should be not “if there is a hearing” but if an in-person hearing needs to be offered which allows for the longer suspension.
I’m not positive it needs that but this is a no-brainer 2 games minimum and perhaps in to the 4-6 range, no?
Agreed. ‘I punched him in the face. But your honour he insulted my mum!’ That’s not how this works.
I think it just means “it’s Sunday morning and I’m enjoying my coffee” “ let’s get into this Monday morning”
OP, this correct, that was a thug move by Reilly and the league should demonstrate that swiftly and clearly.
X can be a funny place but lots of ex players are understanding of Reilly’s actions …to calling out the Senator player for causing the reaction from Reilly.
Of course. Not “respecting the game”. Barf.
Boom, there we go – John Shannon clarified the decision being made right now is if an in-person hearing is going to be offered – this is correct, in my opinion.
It’s a no-brainer 5 game minimum, but it should be way more. It’s one thing to cheap shot someone in the run of play, but after the play is dead and the game is essentially over is another and warrants much more.
It will be an in-person hearing (as per Seravalli), likely meaning 6+ games.
Unless you’re Pietrangelo
That was way worse and uncalled for could of really hurt Leon for no reason. Leon being Leon didn’t go down like a shot or turtle. Reilly definitely deserves a suspension of 5 games but Greig was being a punk and the rest of the league will take notice.
Not to feed into it. Cause they lost fair and square. The Clippers playing 6 hours before and them doing the ice in that time is not conducive to high skilled hockey. For a team with the 2 most skilled players, it evens out the play a bit more.
Usually it’s a concert the night before that causes the ice to be choppy, but same day? Ambitious by more than a lot. Fighting the puck was an understatement especially for 97. Not sharp.
Thank you as always for sharing so openly and eloquently LT.
As someone who works in the field, I speak to everyone I see about the importance of movement, no matter how little at first, and especially outdoors when able. I’m very glad you have been able to use this tool so effectively in your own healing and hope all the best for you moving forward.
Oh ya, we are seeing how much harder the Ceci role had been as opposed to the Deharnais role.
No offence to Vinny but he is not at Cody Ceci’s level, as much as people like to shit on Ceci – he does a solid job in a very tough role.
I’d shift back to the “normal pairs” and I would quiet the talk of Deharnais being a $2.5MM to $3.5MM defender.
Maybe Vinny gets there as he continues to develop (as he is) but he’s a 3rd pairing PK guy and should not be more than $1.5MM on the cap (fine, $1.75MM if he gives that 3rd year).
You may be correct, but I think it would be better to keep trying some new things. Keep learning.
They may just be assessing the pairings minus Ceci, gathering intel around what might be achievable if they move or don’t move Ceci, so learning is good.
The old or normal pairs will still be there. I just want to be going into playoffs as well rounded and deep as possible. It will only take a few games before playoffs to land on exact best pairs and lines.
Many would argue with statistics that neither are appropriate choices
Many would argue that publicly available statistics, as it relates to defensive ability, are often flawed and lacking context.
Here’s one trade we don’t discuss – Vinny plus pick for Tanev – potentially upgrades both the 2nd and 3rd pairs.
Don’t think the flames want a pending UFA when they are selling their UFAs.
No, but it’s possible the Flames or another team may be more likely to re-sign him than the Oilers, (potentially) increasing his value.
I know I just posted about McLeod being off his heater but one forward line adjustment I would make is to swap McLeod and Nuge. Nuge is in a bit of a funk and lets see how McLeod’s speed works with McDavid (we know its worked with Drai but Kaner is playing well at 2LW).
A re-set for Nuge at 3C wouldn’t hurt.
I’ve been all about Brown being value for his cap hit and his defensive game plus PK being valuable in the lineup nightly. I’ve also been citing Gagner as likely the weakest defensive forward on the roster (give or take Kane) and he doesn’t PK but, at the same time, goal scoring is an issue and I’d be fine with any of Brown, Janmark, Ryan sitting for a game for Gagner – he could help PP2 as well.
MacLeod is a better 3c ,Gagner doesn’t pk and isn’t a top sixer at this stage of his career. Simple as that.
McLeod is a better 3C than Nuge? Maybe, maybe not, but Nuge is struggling on the top line right now and I think that swap could inject something on to both the first and third lines.
I never suggested Gagner anywhere near the top 6 but to sub in for one of Ryan, Brown, Janmark.
The team is struggling to score right now and, while I don’t love Gagner’s game in the defensive zone, he has an ability to get pucks to the net and create some chaos offence, from the 4th line.
It’s amazing the Teflon RNH has…..this is a fair point on a shuffle of wingers.
Playing with a God- fair to expect some elevated production?
Goodness.
Nuge is slumping recently, but elevated production?
He’s tied for 15th in league scoring (with Matthews) the past 2 seasons. What exactly are you hoping for?
The Oilers didn’t play great last night. I don’t think there was a lack of “effort” or “try”, just one of those nights where nothing seemed to go right. Lots of pucks bobbled and passes missed by an inch and the opposition goalie came up with some nice saves and one “got through” Skinner, etc., etc., etc.
There were similarities here to the Vegas game a few nights ago where the Oilers did have the puck alot and did have lots of “shot attempts” but damn could they not get much through to the net. The Knights has “sticks everywhere” and the Kings “blocked everything”.
More than anything, the Oilers continue to have a “lack of finish”. That chance that Perry missed, well, that should go in and, if it does, likely changes the game – maybe not the outcome but possibly.
This isn’t just a recent thing either – the Oilers vastly underscore their chances, all season long (and I think even dating back). If I’m not mistaken, by at least a couple of the metrics, the Oilers have the “worst finishing” in the league.
Its weird but, over the last 2-3 months, the team defence has been better than the team offence.
Nice pushes from the likes of McLeod and Foegele but, as we see now, when they go off their heaters, they are legit 3rd line players as far as offence goes (as much as I’ve been posting about Foegele producing at 1st line rates this year – and he has – he’s cold in his overall game now).
I think the top 6 defence plus Broberg (please don’t be hurt long) CAN back-stop the team to a cup victory if they can stay healthy through a run but, damn if a legit top 6 forward wouldn’t be nice – which would also make the bottom six deeper and better.
Sorry for the wall of text. I didn’t watch the game as it was my daughter’s 16th birthday party. I will have to thank her today, that would have been a hard watch for me. I’m not as fully self actualized as many here. I have always strongly disliked my team losing, in the NHL first Montreal, then the Oilers
I’ve always liked speed and skill. And motors that never quit. That’s what drew me to the Habs, I was too young to appreciate Bobby Orr, and he was fading as the hockey lights came on for me, otherwise it might have been the Bruins. Guy Lafleur was the bomb, the call of Yvan Cournoyer blasting down the wing a strong childhood hockey memory
Motors that never quit. Who didn’t love Curt Brackenbury? A buddy worked at Teddy’s (can’t believe it’s still there) and served Curt something like 5 orders of pancakes and 8 glasses of milk, dude liked his carbs! But his time was short as the team grew so quickly, Curt’s blast of energy needed less than better hockey ability
That first playoff loss to the Flyers was painful. Everyone casting aspersions on Wayne, despite his outrageous talent and that of the others so obvious – I thought they could win and they gave it hammer and tongs. I was still do disappointed
This team is good enough to win Stanley. As it stands it would take all hands on deck, including and especially Knobby, and Lady Luck pulling her weight. A huge part of the Glory teams was Sather adapting in real time to his group and what needed to be different or better. In managing the people (he did a lot of that) and finding the missing pieces
They have to figure out how to score when the goalie is playing well and there are no easy looks. The book on this team hasn’t changed in a while. They have slowly gotten tougher, bigger, but I remain convinced the mix could be better. It takes more than just getting more talent or better players in spots – having NHL quality players in all spots is balance – but the next level is how those parts work together and having a full range of abilities and attributes on lines and pairs
I don’t think they will do much that impactful this deadline, but you never know. Maybe Ken finds another deal not in the trade rumours that makes a big difference. I think the forward group needs some changes, probably more than deadline work. That might come from the youth, if they can become more dangerous scorers, find their hands and be driven to finish when they get their chances. Even Crosby drove himself to finish better after a year where he scored less than he wanted to. The youth play with more pace, and I think we need more of it
I think some changes on D would make a difference in helping the forwards more, improving the transition game to get things happening before teams collapse or clog the neutral zone, which currently is the Oilers’ weakest zone
It’s also time for some wrinkles tactically. In attacking certain D structures, and on PP. Maybe Ken needs to get some players that can do that, if it’s a personnel issue, I’m sure the coaches have thoughts. Listening to talk about the Taylor Bowl, both coaches innovate offensively, to be less predictable, hard to game plan against. It’s a big part of being and staying at the top
We need some innovation, like the good old days. Having a lot of talent isn’t the whole thing, you have to actively interfere with what the opponent thinks they are going to do. Like Wayne skating to his own players when they were double teaming him, leaving someone else open
It’s going to be a nailbiter it seems
Appreciate the reference to Teddy’s.
I used to live right around the corner and spent considerable time there eating pie. Their flapper pie was memorable.
Owner Saul became a friend over the years.
Why no pancakes!?
He’s more of a waffle.
Saul had sublime Rueben sandwiches.
Thanks for sharing your struggles with us LT, courage. Mental health is serious and I’m glad you found a way through in dark times. Walking is great for the soul. Sometimes the non stop thoughts of problems seem to dissipate while you put one foot in front of the other. Walk on my friend, walk on.
Seconded LT
Vegas exposed a weakness to a particular mistake free patient game plan. Plus they have finishers.
Kings exposed a weakness to a real physical nasty type of game. Mugging, cross checks, interference that went uncalled. Plus they have talent. And frankly when Oilers try to return fire in this environment they kind of suck at it and end up in the box.
Oilers playing their own brand of hockey can still win and succeed. But they should be thinking of how to boost their game against both these western teams, as these guys and anyone else scouting will be taking notes.
I agree. I thought trying to thug it up last playoffs was a mistake. It’s not them. A team like this needs to play their game that most other teams can’t, and dictate what happens
If the refs aren’t calling, you play faster and harder until the score board tilts the game, or they can’t ignore it anymore. There are spots to pick and the guys to do something, but what the Kings did is what the Flames used to try back in the day. Don’t let them distract you
And the Oilers back then had to learn to get past it and focus on the bigger goal. The bruises don’t hurt as much as you lift the Cup
I agree they need to stick within their strengths. It’s pretty hard to rebuild your roster for each game. Earlier you suggested tactics, that’s what you can control game to game.
For Oilers, they have some toughness but not enough to go tit for tat the whole game. I suggest the time to sort it out is in the first period. Respond right away with maximum force. Force the refs to call it. Get it out of the way, get your own game going again. Might work.
And it would certainly help to have a couple players who enjoy hitting everything that moves.
Thanks for writing from the heart. Out of the ashes… beauty..
LT, I read your blog and I comment. Many folks just read. Either way, myself and others notice things.
Your writing is always nostalgic and purposeful. That’s why using that picture captured my intention, I asked, and I knew it had to have meaning. And I would have guessed exactly what you just shared.
Your have a few other pictures that give insight into your walks and thoughts.
We know you.
You make a difference. You have lots of friends you don’t even know about. That’s something very cool.
LT, thanks for the touching reminder of the important things in life.
It funny as soon as I heard Rittich was in goal for LA I thought the Oil would light him up. But boy was I wrong. Just goes to show it’s the teams play in front of these goaltenders that makes all the difference. Look at VGK Adin Hill came out of nowhere and closer to home Skinner’s play suddenly improves when team defense improves. Then there’s Pickard. Plenty of evidence.
Thank you for the story. Incredibly touching.
LA played a good playoff style game and got grade A goaltending. Refs were in playoff mode as well. The last 2 nights opening periods are a bit of an issue. Vegas game was great. Last 2 not so much.
I do think the bottom 6 needs help on the Dot for sure. McLeod would be better as a winger, he really doesn’t seem to like to go to the net, he stays too high up in the slot. Foegle since the break has been ? I like Holloway but he was invisible last night.
No need to panic, just practise up Monday and maybe put Gagner back in , as it wouldn’t hurt
They lost to both the teams that play big heavy playoff hockey, where goalies were lights out.
I was watching Holloway as well. He was cross checked to the ice repeatedly and had no answer. He’s still learning.
Something is bothering Connor. Never seen him behave like this. Penalties… usually from retaliation. Seething on the bench after a shift. I hope he’s ok. Frustration is a tough emotion.
He’s the best player on the planet. He garners a lot of attention from the best defenders on each team every game. It’s tough especially when opponents don’t always play by the rule book when trying to stop him and they know the officials can’t call or won’t call all the infractions against because the Oilers would be on the PP all game long. He’s almost too good, that frustration.
The coaches or someone needs to be on this. Help him get perspective. It doesn’t help the end goal. Crosby had to learn to chill. Sather had to do it with a few guys, it’s part of managing sports
Agreed, we are seeing a lot of in-game frustration from McDavid.
The game was a good wake up call.
Probably both the Vegas and LA games were. Big gritty playoff type teams