The Edmonton Oilers are 27-8-0 under coach Kris Knoblauch, who has pushed all the right buttons since his hiring. He and the rest of the coaching staff face a challenge this week. After a 1-2-0 run after the All-Star break, the red hot Detroit Red Wings are in town. The owners of a 7-2-1 record in the last 10 (Edmonton is 8-2-0), the Detroit wheels will be a tough out tonight.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Philip Broberg is showing his promise: Will NHL opportunity come with the Oilers or elsewhere?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline notebook: Potential chips, fits — and will Edmonton acquire a goalie?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect defenceman Max Wanner’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Kris Knoblauch’s lineup decisions just pan out as Oilers get back to winning ways
- Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
- DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
- Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
- DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
- Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual January results: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 30-17-1, 61 points in 48 games
With a win tonight, the Oilers would be on track to finish with 105 points. That should be enough for top three in the Pacific, uncertain if the Vancouver Canucks or Vegas Golden Knights would be the easier matchup. Whatever may come, I’m enjoying this season very much. The McDavid era has been highly entertaining, especially since Jay Woodcroft was hired.
WHY DID KNOBLAUCH SHUFFLE THE LINES AND BLUE?
Over 40 years ago, Glen Sather talked about competition and sending a message. He said “I’d love it if somebody took a job away from a returning player. If that happened, that would make our team stronger.” When Knoblauch shuffled the lines and pairings, he was looking for two things (I believe): An idea about how high Corey Perry and Vincent Desharnais could play on the depth chart. One clicked, the other did not, so the coaches have a new second line and the club checked down to the three working pairs we’ve seen all year. I’d still like to see Ekholm-Broberg.
FIVE-ON-FIVE SCORING (LAST 10 GAMES)
- Leon Draiasitl 2.64
- Evander Kane 2.45
- Warren Foegele 2.42
- Sam Gagner 1.83
- Connor McDavid 1.74
- Ryan McLeod 1.72
- Dylan Holloway 1.53
- Corey Perry 1.16
- Cody Ceci 1.02
- Brett Kulak 0.86
- Zach Hyman 0.73
- Derek Ryan 0.73
- Mattias Ekholm 0.69
- Connor Brown 0.66
- Mattias Janmark 0.66
- Evan Bouchard 0.66
- Vincent Desharnais 0.42
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.41
- Darnell Nurse
- Adam Erne
- James Hamblin
- Phil Kemp
A 10-game sample isn’t enough to fire Ryan Nugent-Hopkins into the sun, but that doesn’t stop people from wanting it to happen. Nuge plays on a line where all three men (plus the pairing they rode in on) are well off the pace established in the previous 38 games. Connor McDavid (3.12), Zach Hyman (3.07) and the Nuge (2.19) were hammering away at a fantastic rate. Leon Draisaitl, long identified as wildly inconsistent, owned a 2.37 pts-60 at five-on-five through the first 38 games.
I think bottom-six scoring in the last 10 games is mostly where one might expect it. Ryan McLeod is about where he’s been all season (1.73 pts-60 before the last 10-game run) and Dylan Holloway (0.40 in 14 games leading up to the last 10) has posted enough offense to justify a third-line role. I think the other depth forwards are doing what they do, basically. Mattias Janmark was 1.02 pts-60 previous to the last 10 game run. If he had one more point in these last games he would be well ahead of his season average.
I think we might want to ask what is up with Connor McDavid, but Bill James and the Oilogosphere taught me miles ago that a 10-game run isn’t enough to get your gonch in a knot. McDavid isn’t 40, he isn’t suffering from a known injury (beyond the wear and tear of any season) and he has 71 points in 46 games (in all game states), his 2.80 pts-60 at five-on-five ranks No. 4 in the NHL for the season. People of earth, calm thy tits.
BAKERSFIELD PTS-GAME
- Sam Gagner 1.67
- Dylan Holloway 1.00
- Drake Caggiula 0.94
- Seth Griffith 0.92
- Lane Pederson 0.83
- Raphael Lavoie 0.76
- Ben Gleason 0.73
- James Hamblin 0.67
- Philip Broberg 0.66
- Noel Hoefenmayer 0.54
- Cameron Wright 0.52
- Greg McKegg 0.49
- Adam Erne 0.44
- Alex Peters 0.42
- Brad Malone 0.41
- Tyler Tullio 0.41
- Xavier Bourgault 0.40
- Cam Dineen 0.38
- Carter Savoie 0.33
- Carl Berglund 0.33
- Matvey Petro 0.26
- Jayden Grubbe 0.25
- Dino Kambeitz 0.21
- Phil Kemp 0.19
- Max Wanner 0.18
- Markus Niemelainen 0.14
- Ethan de Jong 0.14
It’s an interesting list. Based on performance, I think the underlined names are the players who we will see play NHL games during the calendar year. AHL scoring does not predict NHL games perfectly, but as Craig MacTavish said one time you have to score at least a little bit to stay in the league. Xavier Bourgault or one of the other kid wingers would do themselves a helluva favor by scoring four points tonight against the Eagles in Loveland.
Noon to two today, Sports 1440, hell’s a popping everywhere! Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic will join us to talk about the Oilers road trip, Jack Campbell and Philip Broberg. We’ll cover the DRW side of things plus CFL free agency day one, MLB players arriving for spring training. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
I have been out of town all week. Finally catching up. It’s wild reading this post after watching the game last night haha.
Turning to music for a moment:
It appears that Robert Plant & Alison Krauss are touring together again…and they’re hitting western Canada in August.
Confirmed that the duo will be playing the Edmonton Folk Fest this year!
Think they’ll be doing any Zeppelin?
Yeah, I’m probably not going.
I don’t imagine you’d hear, say, “Dazed and Confused” or “Immigrant Song”. (“Rock and Roll” is right out.)
But perhaps some of Zeppelin’s folkier fare could be on aural display–i.e., “Going to California” or “Tangerine”.
Actually, when I saw them at Bonnaroo 2022 they did indeed perform “Rock and Roll,” albeit in a more subdued manner. They also did “When the Levee Breaks” and “The Battle of Evermore.”
This game alone had the Oilers go from 19th in 5v5 shooting % to 14th.
When we were winning by playing playoff hockey, it was deeply satisfying but a little bit stale, ya know? 😜
I’m sure we’d all like to see them getting back to winning games by shutting down the opposition. Interestingly, I did think the offense was a bit shy lately, as per Lowetide. As mentioned on SN, Oilers have scored 4 or more goals in 22 of the 35 Knoblauch games, which seems pretty darn good. If you dig deeper they had been producing less over the latter part of the steak (despite largely out-chancing teams).
So all this to say that a game like this every now and then may be good for re-gaining some offensive confidence… Just don’t make it a habit? Skinner saved their bacon in the first 2 periods, some game-breaking saves.
Did somebody say steak?
Rest of league and HH headline “McDavid held goal-less in sloppy Oiler win”
This made me giggle.
Winner of ‘Best comment of the day’!
Couldn’t watch the game and just checked the box score. I’m always amazed when a team gets zero penalties playing against a team 2 of the top offensive players. Maybe the wings really did play a clean 60 minutes….
Nice to get the win, but 8 goals and only one point from a bottom 6 player.
Holloway earned every bit of his goal.
Couple points for Ceci.
Point for Deharnais.
Yes, Lucas Raymond drawing 3 penalties with McDavid drawing none seems improbable
A little bit of Crazy Horse at the Fillmore but that’s a big win heading out on a tough road trip
McDavid is going for Gagner’s record.
2 more shifts and he would have gotten there
L.A. lost 7-0 to Buffalo tonight
Kopitar -6
That’s hard to do.
A positive for PLD – he was even on the night!
Unfrigging believable! 6 asists!
McDavid was reading the Lowtide
Papa Nuge!
Rodrigue with 32 saves in a 2-1 win – another big night for Rodrigue.
I think the teams must have had a gentleman’s agreement that no side would play defense.
All star game level of give a crap on D
Just when I think McDavid can’t surprise me again, he does something otherworldly yet again. Wow. I am gobsmacked yet again.
Also – acquire Perron. He’s still got all the little things you need to win.
Very useful player
That was October level of tying up guys/sticks in the slot.
The effort level in the D zone was not the same as the O zone – for both teams
Now THIS I like.
Open up and punish them.
So. McDavid 1st Star?
Weird game. Two periods of slop and now it’s an electric light show.
For sure. After Wings scored 3 rd goal in the 2 nd I thought we were done. Running around like Keystone Cops. Came out roaring in the 3 rd.
THAT one was kind of absurd. Very impressive.
Wowza McKane
Holy wow that was beautiful
Holy hell McDavid – an all-timer assist.
That’s 7 goals a 5 on 5.
Wow Skinner. That was quality.
Pile up the points boys!
Our Kane!
Hymen on the spot.
Post PK load up double insurance goal!
6th 5 on 5 goal for the team to match Kopitar’s night in inverse!
Hyman in the rough.
McDavid is now over 1.5 points per game for his entire career. 925 in 616 gp.
Gagner will produce some points but this is the third game in a row for him as a liability.
You have to wonder if he has much left to give? He has had a lot of injuries.
I’ve seen a lot of Petry friendly fire. Maybe more than any other d I can remember.
That’s 3 points for Bouch at 5 on 5 and he is full value for his stat-line – he’s been great with the puck all night long.
An elite driver of offence at even strength.
Oilers 3rd period has been consistently strong for a long time.
93 finally awake? That would help.
McDavid shooting a bit more is the next one we need to pop.
Nuge reads Lowetide blog.
The vibes on Nuge have been poor the last few days – that has ended!
Just a casual fourth point tonight for the Captain as he runs interference for Nuge to rip in a classic wrister.
Nuge wrister rocket!
There’s the Nugget
This blender looks really knobby.
That graphic is just crazy. Wow
Very cool goal for Holloway to pull back ahead.
Holy Holloway!!!!!!
Excellent. Five stars.
Lunch pail goal by Hollywood!
Holy hell what happened to our PK? I think we have given up 5 goals in last 6 penalties against. How do you go from awesome to brutal that quick? Better get Janmark back in the line up.
I’m actually so curious to see how they come out for the 3rd. This isn’t just a question of maturity, it’s deployment. I wonder if Knob pushes his C or high forward to circle a bit higher in the offensive zone.
Also, D are pinching hard on 50/50 plays. Can’t do that. So many of those 2on1s were headscratchingly boneheaded.
Detroit closes quickly and makes quick plays. F’ing skate with them! It’s like the good guys are used to their system doing all their work for them.
People are decrying the no powerplays for the Oilers but you’re not going to draw much when you aren’t skating.
After two:
3-3 tie (Detroit 2-1 in the second)
29-22 Detroit shots (17-11 Detroit in the second)
43-36 Detroit Corsi five-on-five (21-20 Detroit in the second)
==
That was a very poor 20 minutes by the Oilers. Many of the issues that plagued this team under Woodcroft (an umbrella description could be ‘taking care of the puck and not flying the zone’) are out in full force tonight.
Defense and positioning is hard work. Oilers sometimes eschew the hard and dull work but it’s important.
Agreed.
Also, kinda crazy that ‘under Woodcroft’ pretty much means the first 12 games of this season.
I’ve missed your period summaries and analysis. I always look forward to it on game nights.
I wonder if Knoblauch regrets his decision to blender the backend?
They were playing soooo good defensively and then he decides to swap up all three pairs…
Rookie coach, hopefully he learned from it.
Don’t think that’s the reason for them playing a pretty brutal period. Bad pinches, losing puck battles, forwards not coming back and forechecking. It’s as if they left the manual in Vegas for responsible defensive hockey and are still hung over.
Funny how these things weren’t happening in the Vegas game before the coach blendered the backend.
It was one game, and he reverted back one pairing mid game.
They were falling victim to bad habits before the all star break, even as they were winning.
Could be seen as arrogant to swap up all your dpairs after your first loss in 17 games that didn’t see them give up four once no?
He’s a smart guy, I’m sure he learned from it.
Yeah if that were in fact the reason Holy fragile. Gotta think this team has won the space and the confidence to be able to tinker and fine tune (or not. this is the Oilers).
The coach went and put Vinny, Ceci and Kulak in positions to fail and messed with the best five in five pairing in league in Bouch/Ekholm.
I don’t think they are fragile but I do believe sometimes coaches can outsmart themselves and here’s an example.
You don’t know it until you try it? I think blending the pairs for one game has been way overblown.