The 2018 draft delivered quality and quantity for the Edmonton Oilers. Three players are already in the NHL, and a fourth (Olivier Rodrigue) is knocking on the door. Last night in Dallas, Evan Bouchard was the offensive star for the winners, twice delivering an accurate and heavy shot that found twine. He ranks No. 5 in points among all NHL defensemen (14-36-50 in 51 games) and is on pace for 80 points and more than 20 goals. A quick aside: Credit to The Draft Analyst for ranking Mike Kesselring in his draft year.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ranking 5 right-handed defenders the Oilers should target in a trade
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- DNB: Philip Broberg is showing his promise: Will NHL opportunity come with the Oilers or elsewhere?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline notebook: Potential chips, fits — and will Edmonton acquire a goalie?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect defenceman Max Wanner’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Kris Knoblauch’s lineup decisions just pan out as Oilers get back to winning ways
- Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
- DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 3-3-0, 6 points in 6 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 32-18-1, 65 points in 51 games
The Oilers won a big game yesterday deep in the heart of Texas and are now on a 105-point pace. The Oilers now have a higher winning percentage than the Vegas Golden Knights. Second place in the Pacific means home-ice advantage and that could be the difference this spring.
THE NUMBERS
I’m getting a Patrick Maroon vibe from Corey Perry’s work on the Connor McDavid line. The veteran winger drove to the net with his stick on the ice, interrupted progress for the opposition and didn’t let the play die on his stick. I know the Oilers are in the market for an additional right wing, but a depth chart of Zach Hyman, new RW, Perry and Derek Ryan would allow Warren Foegele to play LW. That depth chart might be Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Foegele and Mattias Janmark or Dylan Holloway after the deadline.
The center depth chart is likely McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan McLeod and a RH acquisition. If that happens, it’s possible Holloway would be the odd man out. Holland may have to trade a middle-six forward at the deadline to make room.
At even strength, the top line had four points, five HDSC and drew two penalties. I think they’ll get another game together.
The second line (Kane-Nuge-Hyman) had a couple of HDSC and Nuge picked up a PK assist, but none of these men push the river and that’s going to be an issue. Hyman made a neutral zone pass to Evander Kane that was jaw-dropping. The man has skill. Suspect we see Leon return to the second line by the end of February. I thought Foegele had a good game, he was aggressive, worked hard and smart in Dallas. Derek Ryan scored a huge goal, I thought Connor Brown had some good moments while being also in photo a couple of times.
Evan Bouchard was the most effective defenseman, I was also impressed with both Darnell Nurse and Mattias Ekholm’s work overall. Cody Ceci had his moments with the puck, but the Dallas style of forechecking allowed stretch passes along the wall so outlets were relatively easy. I thought Vincent Desharnais had some wobble in his game, but was also impressed with his physicality.
The Oilers have a guy now (Desharnais) who can settle the score in-game and it’s effective. The man is a menace and gets the opposition’s attention. I’ll take the defensive missteps if they don’t overwhelm the game, and his 5-2 goal share five-on-five in the last 10 games suggests the video evidence does not in fact reflect overall production.
Calvin Pickard was giving out rebounds too often and stopping 50 percent of the high dangers isn’t grand, but he has been winning hockey games and is the owner of a .921 five-on-five save percentage.
BAKERSFIELD CONDORS
The Condors played last night, but not well. Bakersfield is not the same team without Philip Broberg and last night lack of discipline cost the team. It’s interesting to look at the prospects and offensive totals over the last 10 games.
- Raphael Lavoie 10, 4-4-8
- Philip Broberg 7, 0-4-4
- James Hamblin 5, 1-2-3
- Tyler Tullio 6, 2-1-3
- Max Wanner 10, 1-2-3
- Matvey Petrov 9, 1-1-2
- Xavier Bourgault 10, 1-1-2
- Carter Savoie 10, 1-1-2
- Jayden Grubbe 9, 0-0-0
The wingers who are either rookies or sophomores in Bakersfield are ponderous. Ponderous. If there was an expansion draft tomorrow, and these were the available options, the first three picks would be Philip Broberg, Raphael Lavoie and Max Wanner. I think the coaching staff has too many players who need playing time and so none of them is well served. I don’t blame the coaching staff, suspect management needs to cull the herd. The problem? Who do you keep? First-round picks usually get favoured in this scenario but Xavier Bourgault can’t buy a goal. Condors play tonight, one of these cats badly needs to breakout.
Test.
Colorado smokes Bakersfield 5-2, getting 44 SOG.
Of the 7 goals & 11 apples, among the U25 set, only 22 YO Avs prospect Ivan Ivan appears on the Scoresheet with 1 goal.
If the Penguins miss the playoffs the Oilers should rent Sidney Crosby.
50% salary retained, for Campbell plus some youth, and future considerations.
Then in the summer trade him back.
Could make it worth their while.
Start a new trend.
Lol. Puljujarvi smokes Byfield face first into the boards. in typical Jessie fashion he’s too big to be in full control, didn’t mean to do it. He’s Having a decent game.
So, combining the news stories of the past few days…
Was Calgary asking for Broberg in a Tanev trade? I can only assume Ceci would have also had to go the other way.
I think that’s fair. Once Hanifin is dealt, Calgary need LH blue, even assuming a LH is coming back as part of the package. Part of the issue is uncertainty over Kylington.
The early intel was that Pederson’s injury could be serious so this is good news. Petrov, Grubbe, Nimeo, Broberg all out hurt
Is Pederson a guy who could play 4C and PK on the big club?
He isn’t a material PK guy at the AHL level – he won’t kill at the NHL level – could he play 4C over Ryan? I guess, maybe – it would be a different look to the line, that’s for sure
This week Stauffer referenced the Ryan O’Reilly / Noel Acciari trade where they fetched two players for a 1st round pick. Said that was a possible option for the Oilers.
Washington couldn’t give away Anthony Mantha this past summer, but if they were to retain half AND add in Nick Dowd, you could justify spending a 1st. Probably need another 4th to broker Mantha’s salary down to ~1.5M
Either of those deals would be great. I imagine the asking price is higher. Hope it’s more of a buyers market and we can get a package like that.
i’m warming up to Gregor’s idea for a deal with WSH – the return being Nic Dowd and Beck Malenstyn (who are linemates). Malenstyn also a former Skinner teammate on the SC Broncos
Not a bad idea at all,
But only of they are offering Janmark, 2nd round pick, lesser prospect etc.
Oilers have a first round pick & enough cap space for a top 6 scoring winger.
Is that not the greater need?
Plus it helps with bottom 6 depth, something needed for any measure of post season success, especially against Vegas.
Does Nic Dowd move the needle enough for that?
Dowd is on a fantastic contract through next season, 3/4 RHC who plays a rugged style and can skate. Absurd deployment against elites (43.3%) and outscores for his troubles, to the tune of 70%.
So, yes, you could say Dowd moves the needle.
Holy Shit,
Hire this man!
It was an astute move of Knobby to put Pickard in yesterday. While the players will tell you they are good to go with either G, make no mistake, they are going to be more attentive to details when the backup is in against a very strong offensive team. And they clearly needed to be more attentive to details given the sloppiness of the past few games. This roster decision brought the team back to playing more responsibly than other games since the break (and a few just before). Now they just have to play that way consistently (again), like they were when they were on the streak.
Nice to see below that Brown is possibly sitting down again for the next game. He has been very good usually on the PK, but not much else. I like the look of the line-up and as discussed obtaining a top 6 RW without giving up too much of the future would be the top trade deadline move. 2nd pairing RD would be nice, but may not be possible to obtain without giving up too many assets.
It is now clear Broberg doesn’t leave for a rental. Which is excellent to hear. He is certainly very good insurance as 6/7 D in the playoffs and ideal to replace Kulak on the roster next year. He is however still one of their most valuable trade assets, if a RD or RW with term come back, I could see it happen….it would be painful b/c we are all rooting for him!
A quick aside: Credit to The Draft Analyst for ranking Mike Kesselring in his draft year.
I give them no credit unless they release their evidence that the 399th ranked prospect was the superior player. To go 400 deep in a draft that only picked 217 (apologies for missing any compensatory picks) is a bit outlandish.
That’s okay! I think it’s cool they had him listed and no one else did, but you do you. 🙂
Per Stauff:
The @EdmontonOilers practice in Scottsdale this morning:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Janmark-McLeod-Foegele
Gagner-Holloway-Ryan
Brown
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Ceci
Kulak-Desharnais
Skinner
Pickard
—————
OP the wife will be at Mullet to watch the game live.
You are happy to know that YYC is much warmer today.
My goodness – that is a GREAT draft but, damn on Kesselring.
I know, futures is the price of business when trying to load up for a cup run but I said, on the date of the Big Dick Bjugstad trade, that I did not like the Dineen/Kesselring swap inclusion (which I presume was the price for the retention).
I’m ok with K going. He’s heavily sheltered and there is already Bouch
I was less of a fan in getting Bjug. He’s ok I guess I don’t think he’s as good as some do. I do lean to skating players especially for The Oilers. Huge slower guys get exposed unless your team is built around stifling D which ours isn’t. Or shouldn’t be given the nature of the best players
Good D isn’t exactly the same as just clogging all the zones up where being huge helps
Kesselring isn’t sheltered any more at 5 on 5 than Vinny is – playing about the same percent of TOI vs. elites with similar effects (not positive goal share).
The graph shows the usage spread is far higher on the Yotes than Oilers, so he’s ’more’ sheltered. MK’e results aren’t bad but what we see is Knobby trusts Des more than MK’s coach trusts him. At least for now
I think the biggest need is top 6 winger, and I think Foegele will be going the other way if the Oilers acquire one.
There’s got to be salary going out if someone is coming in and Foegele is the easiest guy to replace on the 3rd line.
Perry is fine as a stop gap, but no way he can play the minutes you need to play to hang with McDavid and Draisaitl.
I would like to see a 2nd line winger added and maybe a 4C. I don’t see the need to spend assets on a depth D as we already have Broberg as #7 and Gleason as #8. Was impressed with both of them when I saw them in person last month. That said a Ceci upgrade may be helpful if the cost isn’t prohibitive. No need to spend assets on a goaltender either as we have 4 that are playing well at the moment (last night’s Condors game notwithstanding).
Nope, he can’t play those minutes but he can do what he did last night included being subbed off for some shifts here or there (Brown gone one, Foegele got one, etc.).
Foegele could go but a later pick to get double retention on the 2RW seems a better path. Need all the depth we can get for a run.
Since “The Streak” Oilers are now 3-3.
They seem to play to the level of the opposition. Against Dallas they played well.
Hard fought battle yesterday afternoon. Liked Perry with McDavid & Draisaitl so much he may buy them some time in acquiring that top six winger. I believe they should definitely be looking for a center to add to the team at or before the deadline. A depth RHD would probably help too, not necessary a Tanev but someone with experience that can play.
Defense: On defense the need is a 2-way RHD better than Ceci who makes the same money or slightly more. Tanev is the only guy who qualifies and is available so he will be expensive if their GM is even willing to trade with us. Zub isn’t being traded and neither is Pesce or Larrson – of course you could have said that about Ekholm last year – but deals like that don’t happen to often. Tough problem but the whole league has it as well. Fall back plan is a guy like Bogosian but seems redundant with Vinny filling that role already. Dumba is available – probably wouldn’t cost much – there’s a reason for that.
Right Wing: Brown has been an unmitigated disaster and I bet no one wants to share his black hole. Crazy how many first round picks (6) have tried to fill this hole over the years (Yak, Ebs, Strome, Jessie, Yamo, Bourg, Lavoie). Thank god for Hyman and Perry seems okay. Ryan good for 4th line duty. Tarasenko would be a good fit and available.
Goal: The upgrade/insurance is Campbell. No need to waste assets on a lateral or worse move. Pickard is mediocre but he’s hanging in there and helping our cap issues. Campbell comes up for free in the playoffs and he’s as good as we could get in trade.
Center: Just get Dowd already, maybe WAS will take Brown back which would help our cap. Don’t care for most of the other likely options.
Left Wing: lots of depth and no pressing needs here
Tanev is the target, Dowd would help, Tarasenko a decent option if we can’t get Tanev. But at this point it really all about Skinner’s goaltending and playing a mature mistake free defensive game. One or two adds at the deadline might help a little – but won’t make a difference if the team as a whole can’t/won’t play defense.
Really hard to see Calgary trading Tanev to us without a SERIOUS overpay. I think Dowd would be a good addition as would Tarasenko.
Not only did Calgary trade with their other major rival (Canucks)TWICE, they also took their problem contract off their hands in return (Kuzmenko).
Not sure that Conroy is the sharpest tool in the drawer..
I don’t see Holland having to pay a Provincial Nemesis tax, for 1, the fLames won’t be in the playoffs and 2, Tanev’s contract ends this season.
He could ask for a conditional 1st if the Oilers sign him beyond this season and/or make the SCF, but for me Tanev is worth a 2nd, max.
Conroy will try to get the best return possible and if that is from our team, he will land here.
Can no longer have trade conditions based on the traded player re-signing.
Per Matty;
Matt Villalta in net for Coyotes for first NHL start vs Edm Monday
oh oh . . .
OK, so task #1 is to ruin his future. Score a fistful.
I had that Maroon thought on Perry’s goal. Not many styles of player that mesh well with McD over the long term, but Maroon was definitely one of them.
TSN played a Top 10 of McD’s best assists the other day, and it seemed like half of them went to Maroon (the other half was Drai). Just going to the net with his stick down and Connor does something amazing for the tap in…just like Perry is doing now.
It really is amazing that Brown could not score on McD’s (or anyones) wing
Brown would actually need to go to the net to score.
So true. It’s amazing how few guys have been able to do what they need. Really it involves reading the play and getting to open ice ready to go. And reading the play and having Connor’s back defensively
Seems easier than having to be a bigger part in creating the play (es you have to do something but not be creative) just wait for free goals bcs he will get the puck to ready fellas as few can
Still wish Lavoie would get a chance again on the Oilers with a quality center
Lavoie had a bad game last night which included culpability on goals against.
EC standings as of Feb 18/24 using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
Atlantic
FLA 21
BOS 20
TOR 13
Metropolitan
NYR 19
CAR 15
PHI 9
Wildcard
TBY 9
DET 8
Out of playoffs
NJD 6
PIT 4
NYI 4
WSH 3
BUF -2
MTL -3
OTT -5
CBJ -9
I would bet that:
NJD catches PHI for 3rd in the Metro.
Both EC Wildcard teams will be from the Atlantic
This shows also shows the west as settled, with exception of the last wildcard. In the east, 3rd in the Metro and wild card slot after Tampa being free.
I wouldn’t count out the Penguins just yet. Philadelphia & New Jersey both with goaltending issues. Jarry & Nedelokovich are hot. Maybe they can help push the senior Penguins across the line. Penguins are in worse shape this year than they were last, based on PTS% when they missed the playoffs by one point. But over the last 25 games have outperformed NJD & PHI in PTS%, GF%, & xGF%.
WC standings as of Feb 18/24 using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
Pacific
VAN 24
EDM 14
VGK 14
Central
WPG 19
DAL 20
COL 15
Wildcard
LAK 10
STL 6
Out of playoffs
NSH 3
MIN 2
SEA 2
CGY 0
ARI -3
ANA -14
SJS -19
CHI -22
7 of the WC teams are set imo.
Binnington may keep STL in it.
I think SEA isn’t out of it.
Not sure on MIN but if I had to bet on one team changing, it would be SEA.
NSH will *probably* sell a couple players so not banking on them, but could easily be wrong there
What are your thoughts on Nucks? Are they legit?
Trotz is shopping his most valuable asset (Saros) and others who could bring back what the lack (skill forwards). Kid in Milwaukee (Askarov) is ready for the NHL.
Keep an eye on Carrier (2D). Underrated RH d-man.
Nothing in Chaulk’s resume indicates that he should be given the benefit of the doubt.
This is true
He played Wanner as a regular right out of the box and plays Grubbe consistently.
It’s the wingers. There’s too damn many.
Chaulk put Pederson-Bourgault together not long ago and it was flaccid.
I think it’s reasonable to question Bourgault’s future. Red Line did before the draft. I’m wondering about the young man. He badly needs to impact the game offensively (I like his PK/forechecking).
I’ve been wrong on prospects before but I think Bourgault’s greatest contribution to this team will be as “X-team acquires former first-round pick Borgeault in exchange for B-tier rental.”
There are coaches who produce at every level, wherever they go in a reasonable amount of time.
Bakersfield under Chaulk gives me the Springfield era vibes.
Chaulk as not excelled anywhere.
Some players will progress regardless of the coach. Others will not. Chaulk’s hit ratio is very low.
Contrast Nelson, who actually took failures out of the Springfield program (McDonald, Chorney), and got non-trivial NHL games played.
Nelson made the AHL playoffs, and won a round with Bryan Helmer and 5 ECHL type defensemen, and a plethora of rookie and 2nd year AHL forwards, and if not for Scrivens in the Marlies net, would have beaten a Marlies team stacked with future NHL players and tweeners, in the 2nd round of the AHL playoffs.
Chaulk has a D stacked with allegedly experienced top 4 AHL D, and the team looks awful without Broberg.
Hmmm. I can’t agree with this.
Mike Kesselring blossomed after Chaulk arrived, he was a depth pick who spiked in his (and Chaulk’s) second year.
Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg have spiked but they were high picks, so that’s expected. Skinner spiked the year before Chaulk arrived as head coach.
Raphael Lavoie has in fact improved, using his body effectively and shooting the puck more and from good places.
Olivier Rodrgiue has improved.
Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio had reasonable rookie seasons (Bourgault was a shy scorer). They have either reached a plateau or gone backwards, depending on who were are discussing.
This season, Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe have impressed, Matvey Petrov is part of the group of wingers who are dying on the vine because no one is getting enough juice.
I don’t think Chaulk has a claim for being Todd Nelson, but I also think the Oilers have stopped sending top-end prospects to Bakersfield.
I would add the progression in Noah Philp’s game from October through May last year was extremely impressing.
Yes. Good point.
Of all the issues in this organization the Head Coach in Bakersfield is sure as hell not one of them.
Brown had some very bad moments too on the first two goals against when he was not moving his feet and let his man get past him, and not using his body to run interference and prevent his man from getting to the net or trying to tie up his stick.
Can’t shoot, won’t engage physically and doesn’t get on his horse to backcheck.
He is the weakest link.
In his last 10 games Brown has an assist and is 2-1 on-ice goals five-on-five. He can PK.
In his last 10 games, Gagner is 1-2-3 goals and 3-4 on-ice goals five-on-five. He does not PK.
Brown’s PK work keeps him in the lineup. That may change at the deadline.
10 games back goes to December 14th against Tampa Bay for Gagner.
Really hard to establish a consistency in play and systems if it’s takes 2 months to play 10 games.
The 11th game back Gagner was 1g 1a against Chicago, something Brown has not done since March of 2022.
10 games back for Brown is a January 20th game against Calgary.
Brown has been given all the rope in the world to establish a better a track then Gagner and other then he PK’s.. Gagner’s track is far more appealing imo.
Gagner does the toughest thing in the NHL to do, score goals.
Nov 28 – Dec 21 Gagner roughly played 10 games in row.
10 games 2g 4a 6pts +3.
Brown has not has a 10 game segment come anywhere close.
Gagner also has GWG’s against Vegas and Calgary this season.
Great piece LT. I am very interested to see what Holland has up his sleeve. I do think if the Oil add a top six RWer and a bottom 6 C man I think FOEGLE will be traded. But that is just my opinion.
I also think Broberg will be moved only if they bring in someone with term. A Laughton with Walker deal would probably be the type of trade that sees him go. Or a Travis Koneckny ( just an example)
Great win yesterday and you are right there were some big bad rebounds
Id give Pickard Mondays game too and play him almost every other game until td.
need to know can you play him in playoffs or do you need to go flower shopping
Playing him Monday is a great idea , let’s see what he can do with 2 in a row
I think the team is more attentive defensively when Pickard is in goal. they should afford Skinner the same benefit of the doubt. Protect your goalies should be the mantra for this team.
If you’re flower shopping, it’s right at the 11th hour of the deadline, just like me and my anniversaries
I agree with giving Pickard lots of games, and the schedule will require that in any event, but I 100% disagree on giving him two games in row.
No true starting goalie in the NHL has the back-up play multiple games in a row for no real reason.
To me, Pickard is the back-up through the end of the season and, if Skinner goes does in the playoffs (or the second goalie is required to step in and try and win a series), Jack Campbell is the guy – he is the guy with the higher ceiling, the proven ability to get hot at the NHL level and go on runs – which he’s done in the NHL playoffs.