The Edmonton Oilers are in the desert today, playing the Arizona Coyotes. The road trip looked cloudy with a chance of rain before a big win against the Dallas Stars, and with a win today this trip would be considered a resounding success.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers vs. Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Final? It’d be a fever dream
- Lowetide: Ranking 5 right-handed defenders the Oilers should target in a trade
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- DNB: Philip Broberg is showing his promise: Will NHL opportunity come with the Oilers or elsewhere?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline notebook: Potential chips, fits — and will Edmonton acquire a goalie?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect defenceman Max Wanner’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Kris Knoblauch’s lineup decisions just pan out as Oilers get back to winning ways
- Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
- DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 3-3-0, 6 points in 6 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 32-18-1, 65 points in 51 games
The rest of this month should go 4-2-0 or thereabouts, meaning Edmonton would finish the month 36-20-1, 73 points in 57 games. That’s a 105-point pace, and could mean home ice advantage for Edmonton over Vegas Golden Knights. That might be key. Is Stanley straight ahead?
TOP 30 PLAYERS IN THE 2024 DRAFT
I don’t see the Oilers drafting any of these kids, but there are some interesting names among the top 30 this season. Seven WHL, five OHL and USHL prospects. Plenty of Russians and Finns, where are the Swedish kids this year?
MAX WANNER
Wanner is coming along well, he’s physical, stepping up and forcing the issue. Still needs work on passing, getting pucks through to the net and the usual challenges young shutdown blue face. The Condors are actually depressing to watch right now, but Wanner is making headway. In the last five games he is 3-1 even-strength goals, while the rest of the team is 6-11. Wow.
CONDORS FORWARDS AS ROOKIES (A COMPARISON)
This is rudimentary but we’re all most familiar with Oilers players so comps we know allows us to see things clearly. As rookies, Xavier Bourgault and Raphael Lavoie were comparable. Now, as you know, gaudy scoring numbers in the AHL don’t necessarily mean NHL success is guaranteed. Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson in year 1 above of their careers is a good reminder.
So, when we see Ryan McLeod, Tyler Tullio and James Hamblin in a cluster around .40 pts-game, that’s an area where NHL-calibre players can come from. I don’t think the lower group have told their story yet, but will say that even at .25 pts-game, Jayden Grubbe looks like he could make the NHL someday.
CONDORS FORWARDS AS SOPHOMORES (A COMPARISON)
James Hamblin is 22 here, so one year older than players like Tullio and Bourgault. Hamblin is a center and has two-way acumen, but is limited offensively so his NHL career is going to play out on the fourth line (in my opinion). There are higher hopes for everyone in bold below Hamblin, but it’s my belief there are too many and the players are not announcing their presence with authority.
Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio get knocked off the puck too easily, and their touches are rare. Ryan McLeod was at 1.00 in his second year. Now that was the pandemic season, but he had a strong third season and one standout skill (speed) that was his calling card.
I think, if we’re honest, Bourgault’s standout skills are passing and anticipation; it isn’t turning into goals in the AHL. If they aren’t happening in the minors, they can’t happen in the NHL. Bourgault is in trouble as a prospect. I know some blame the coach, and that could be exactly the problem.
I do know Bourgault was strong early on a line with Lane Pederson and that lasted about three games until injuries hit. My working theory is that Colin Chaulk is losing Bourgault like Tom Renney lost Magnus Paajarvi. Ironically, Bourgault and Puljujarvi have the same issue: They are miles from being first-shot scorers. That brings us to Lavoie.
CONDORS FORWARDS, THIRD YEAR (A COMPARISON)
The player we need to focus on here is Raphael Lavoie. By year three he is scoring well enough to be the top scoring prospect in the system, well clear of James Hamblin. He doesn’t play center (McLeod and Hamblin do) but does have a great shot and is a volume shooter. He is on the Patrick Maroon highway to the NHL, meaning he is less likely to make it with the Oilers and could land in Columbus, then find his way.
By year three pro, the winners are either in the NHL (Anton Slepyshev, Kailer Yamamoto, Dylan Holloway) or on their way (Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan McLeod). Evan Patrick Russell scored enough in the AHL (he was older, out of college) to make it to the NHL. By this time, Bourgault and company have to be touching the puck and posting enough offense to get noticed.
CONDORS FORWARDS, FOURTH YEAR (A COMPARISON)
This is the exit year. All aboard who’s coming aboard for the NHL. Lavoie and Hamblin aren’t there, and their comps are Marody and Benson. Foot speed was the deal for those two fellows, Lavoie is not a burner but Hamblin can scoot (I think he’s quicker than fast, your mileage may vary).
Bourgault is 21. You don’t give up on him until after the 2025-26 season.
He is tracking like Raphael Lavoie. Blame can be shared, but it’s Bourgault’s career in the balance. He needs to touch the puck, make plays, score goals and he needs to do it pretty damn soon. That’s the deal.
While putting up over 200 pts over the last 2 seasons, Kucherov is a -2 in that span. This season he is a “PP merchant” (to borrow a phrase from McDavid haters), which partly explains the discrepancy.
This seems hard to do, to still have a negative even goal differential while being a point producing machine. McDavid did put up a -3 from 2018-20, but those Oilers teams weren’t exactly world beaters. He also did not win any major awards in 2018-19 or 2019-20.
Also worth pointing out that pts/game right now doesn’t discriminate between McDavid (1.66), MacKinnon (1.63), or Kucherov (1.86). If it is between the 3, MacKinnon will likely curry more favour for Hart because he’s never won it, and the writers’ association is full of people who value garbage like that.
But the truth is that at the moment, McDavid is the best player in the league, and he collectively contributes more to wins than any other skater. In the past, his D was cited as a knock against him, and so it should stand to reason that it should be factored into why he should win over Kucherov, Matthews, and MacKinnon this year. In terms of even strength points, he is nearly at MacKinnon’s production in 6 less games, and tied with Kucherov. I will be surprised if Connor wins it, even if he does battle back in the Art Ross race. The narrative appears to be set (goals for Matthews, and point push for the other 3), which may favour Matthews because his case is unique
Auston Matthews, who JUST missed out on 50 in 50, is a lock for 60 (unless injured) and has a real legit shot at 70, is in the conversation.
I don’t like it, not one bit, but it has to be the case.
How does Kesselring look compared
to Broberg at this point in their careers?
When Kesslering was 22 (he’s 24), he was nowhere near as dominant an AHL player as Broberg is – Broberg is the best d-man on the ice nightly (both teams) and often the best player.
Love to see the little girl with #73 jersey
The bad news: McDavid has now gone six games goalless.
The good news: He has rung up 15 assists in that span.
Oilers are in a good space right now. They’ve got superstars, first class complimentary players, up and coming young star players, and likely the best bang for your buck retread players in the NHL.
The team plays big boy hockey, unlike the poorer teams that rely on mass rushing the puck hoping that the one with the puck can pass it to one but not more than one of the others rushing up the ice.
Holland is playing a big part in this team. He took a capped out mess and now they’re ranked up there along with the top favourites.
Corey Perry is showing the Oilers exactly what sticking up for the cause looks like.
He’s likely going to play a huge part to win another cup with the Oilers next spring.
Such a stand up rat lol
Summarizing!
No work and all play–followed by post-game libations with friends–means Your Humble Correspondent’s report was delayed.
Anywho, the House of Stone got off the schneid with not one but two goals, giving him 16 on the season.
Prospecting takes a break until Wodin’s Day.
Fun game to be at as an Oilers fan.
I got foisted on to the ON pre-game pod for a few minutes as well!
Is that something dirty??
Apparently the Jeff Jackson’s Oilers could not afford $2M AAV for Nick Bjugstad, but could afford $750k and $3.25M for Connor Brown. Now they are looking for a large right shot centre. Good job guys.
The Brown contract opportunity was unique. It didn’t work out, but the facts of the issue should be presented when discussing the Brown contract and why Bjugstad was not an option.
While into presenting facts – its important to note who Brown’s agents proxy and otherwise, were. And consider whether or not that could POSSIBLY affect a player evaluation.
I would like to know if Bjugstad was offered 775k with a 3.25M bonus option, and if he would have considered it. We don’t know that. But it’s seems within the realm of possibility that he would have.
We do know that Bjugstad does not have the same agent(s), friends, Erie Otters associations as Connor Brown. And we do know that those factors affect judgment.
I think this is something we need to agree on in terms of what contract was offered to Brown and why it could not be offered to Bjugstad. This is vital to the conversation.
We absolutely DO know that information and, no, Bjugstag was definitely not offered that contract as that contract was not available to him.
Performance bonuses clauses are generally only available for ELCs and for 35+ contracts. There is an exception for NHL veterans who missed a certain amount of the previous season with injury on LTIR – Brown and Max P. were available for these, Bjugstad was not.
With respect to you and the great data information you provide, when bashing upper management with respect to contract terms, I would suggest one be confidant they know the workings of what types of terms are and are not permitted.
Yeah Bjugstad has only scored more goals and has more points than any of our bottom 6.
Damn Jeff Jackson and his crazy fantasy world where 2,000,000 is a bigger number than 750,000!!
You are correct, they literally could not afford 2m aav vs 775k aav. Exhibit B this summer was Klim Kostin.
Also, JJ was hired Aug. 3 and Bjugstad signed with the Yotes on July 1. These are all important facts to note, while I also am disappointed with Brown’s season, as everyone is.
You shouldn’t let the facts get in the way of a false narrative.
There’s no misrepresentation of the facts here. It was a poor choice.
The false narrative is that somehow this choice was unavoidable or that it was a good idea in the first place. Brown’s production has never been top-6 (more like top-9), and at almost 30 years old he was recovering from a very serious injury/surgery. What could have gone wrong?
I don’t understand why people do this stuff.
There is 100% a misrepresentation of facts here.
During Brown’s 3-year Ottawa career his point production was tied for 117th in the league. His goal production was tied for 122nd in the league. Both ranked higher at 5v5.
By definition very easily ‘top 6’ (top 192 forwards) production, and in fact closer to ‘1st line’ than to ‘3rd line’ or ‘top 9’.
At 5v5 his goal and point production were in fact both ‘1st line’ (ie – top 96 in the league).
I know it’s great for effect to say Brown has ‘never been a top 6 player’, or has ‘never had top 6 production’, but it’s absolutely and totally untrue (whatever narrative one is trying to push).
Is Bjugstad the actual missing piece this team needs and as a 4th line Center, how is $2,100,000 even a reasonable contract? Also, Bjugstad is getting 2C minutes in AZ.
Right, because there’s no way that Holland could have presented Bjudstad or Kostin with a bonus laden contract of 775k, and there’s no way Jackson’s association with Brown affected the offer. Since you’re into dates, Brown also signed on July 1st and ostensibly it was already known that Jackson would be Holland’s boss as “divestment” takes quite a bit of time.
To my understanding Kostin and Bjugstad were not eligible to sign bonus laden deals. This was a unique opportunity for Brown as LT said, due to his minimal gp the year before from injury and being a vet of over 400 gp, while otherwise bonus laden deals are for ELCs or over 35 year old player deals.
Someone with more CBA knowledge may be able to confirm or correct that but I think that is the case with Brown’s unique deal.
This is exactly it. Brown was eligible for a bonus laden deal. Bjugstad and Kostin weren’t.
Comparing that with Connor Brown’s deal is apples and oranges because he was the only person on LTIR last year eligible for that kind of deal.
That’s not to say Brown has worked out. He hasn’t been a good investment so far. But that’s not the same as presented above.
If Kostin and Bjugstad were not eligible for the same deals, it still doesn’t change the fact that the Brown contract was in fact a higher risk contract that involves a conflict of interest. And, other choices could have been made to sign Bjugstad. We’re not talking millions and millions of dollars difference here. He seemed pissed today. Good for him. Those goals were pretty sweet.
It’s a conflict of interest now for people to acquire players they know and may have already played with other players on the team?
This is beneath you.
You were not aware of the facts – the fact that Kostin and Bjugstad were not eligible for bonus-laden deals – you based an argument partially on a fallacy and once pointed out you don’t acknowledge that your argument’s basis was incorrect and think about if your conclusions should be altered.
You earlier speak of Jackson knowing he was going to be the Oilers chief hockey exec on July 1 but, again, don’t seem to be in the know of the facts that he was presented with the opportunity from a high level for the first time as the draft approached and he needed weeks to deal with the draft and free agency before even really diving in to the thought.
He was nowhere near the Oilers’ boss on July 1 and, in any event, any conflict of interest would have worked the other way – if Jackson knew he was leaving as Brown’s adviser and going to work for the team that would go against getting the best deal for his current client.
You understand correctly. Brown’s contract situation and historical production were unique, and it was a creative and good gamble that hasn’t paid off to the degree one would have expected, GIVEN THE FACTS AT THE TIME OF SIGNING.
You talk as if every time you go to the casino you walk out with wheelbarrows full of money.
Die was cast when decision made not to buyout Campbell that left very few viable options for anything of even 2M for bjugstad variety.
I dont care what anyone says about no more buyouts -> this years cap space is infinitely more valuable the lasting tail of buyout cap space. There’s a market bottleneck soon to be less restricted. It starts sliding further from faberge egg edging toward Easter cream egg level value…on a egg value scale (with rotten egg obviously lowest end)
Still 3 fewer 3rd period goals than Minnesota scored today, but not bad.
Man, Kaner, an ozone penalty late in the game. Come on bro. Stop chasing the hattrick
He had a shot there but passed off to Ryan… didn’t want the 10 minute delay while picking up hats, I guess
Jeckyl and Hyde.
Maybe 97 went napalm in the dressing room or something, but their effort and forecheck is like a completely different team than the previous.
I’m getting pissed on the Louie DeBrusk “Shot Mentality” drinking game.
“Shot” Mentality? 😉
That could lead to a shot fatality!
or another tequila sunrise in the desert…
It’s a poor man’s Stauffer (who’s always saying you need to get to X number of shots/always ragging on Bouch to shoot on the PP).
16 shots. But the Oilers only needed 12 and scored 4 times.
I don’t think that is what he meant by shot mentality, I think it means pucks, not liquor….
The key difference between Period 2 and 3 was “shot mentality” – person paid to comment on NHL hockey.
Louie seems like a guy that I could have a beer with and listen to his stories for hours. After hearing any of his analysis, I have thought that I know more about hockey, never.
I bet Louie is completely aware that we’re panning his favourite phrase, and is totally breaking the fourth wall now. He’s universally liked by the players past and present, which matters if you’re going to stand between the benches.
McLeod breaks a 9 game pointless drought. Let’s see if Foegele can break his 8 during the Great Arizonan Capitulation.
They did this against Detroit. Is this an honest game plan?!?
Maybe it’s brilliant adaptation between periods?
Oilers are super-conditioned?
… or most likely, Phx are drained after playing yesterday and grinding hard for 2 periods
One team played less than 24 hours ago. The other did not.
Mcleod from Leon
check that- they gave it to Kane from Mcleod and Drai
Much, much better period.
I’ll take it . . . but it doesn’t mean I have to like it.
Wow, that’s an all-time, all world tip.
Split up McLeon, opposition doesn’t have the depth to handle it. Nice
Rhymin’ Hyman takes care of business
Welcome to a real NHL shot, kid!
Kane gets the job done
Some absolutely head scratching mistakes in the neutral zone today. Again, again, and again. Yuck
A bit of credit to the ‘yotes – they’re skating and clogging.
This has been an atrocious effort. It’s like an AHL team playing a middling NHL team. This is happening often of late. Coaching and leadership needs to get a hold of this. Slow plays with the puck. Telegraphed plays. Trying for cute breakouts after getting gassed in their own zone. Ffs this is hard to watch.
This team as constructed is way too slow. Perry on the first line forces Mcdavid and Draisaitl to do too much work. He is the opposite Puljujarvi, good at offense but absent at everything else.
He’s world class at agitating
But I agree. If you construct a roster where you’re best players ‘have’ to help the lessers, in the sense do the work the ‘helpers’ normally would, you’re bass ackwards
Know your starting point. Everyone is there to maximize Leeloo, uh, Connor
After two: 3-2 Arizona, the Coyotes scored both goals in the period.
16-14 Arizona shots (9-7 in the second for the desert dogs)
41-28 Arizona Corsi five-on-five (26-13 Coyotes in the second)
==
That was a truly addled period by Edmonton. Stuart Skinner isn’t having a terrific game but the Oilers aren’t doing much to keep the puck in the other end.
I don’t think these lines will last.
Oilers are going to have to come up with a big third period, as usual.
One team played less than 24 hours ago. The other looks like they were on the golf course yesterday and spent the night in Old Town Scottsdale.
Tuned in late to this one with the score already 2-1 and I’m wondering how the hell the Oilers scored 2 goals.
They started well,then quit skating
.
Please split up Mcdrai
Looks like a one line team again, and the one line doesn’t look that great.
Agreed, split them up or tell them to start shouting. Too many passes looking for the perfect set-up.
Stiiiiiink
Oilers gain the zone, Gagner gets the puck and immediately tries to make a low percentage play through 3 coyotes. Turnover, Coyotes skate it up, apply pressure and scores.
Either the puck possession message is not being made anymore or the players stopped listening and completely forgot what turned their season around.
If Gagner kept the puck, cycled down the boards, let his teammates reload and the weakside help starts fire checking, the Oilers put in a good shift. They get a few corsis and maybe a play opens up for an easy high percentage pass or shot.
It’s so frustrating after watching how they played for most of the streak.
delete Gagner and insert name <here>, including the team’s top players.
Yeah it’s rampant. The only guy that consistently makes the simple play decision is McLeod.
Gagner seems to be really struggling last handful of games he has played. Maybe time to consider bringing Hamblin back (or someone else??)
Hamblin and Erne, despite their faults, were key examples of keeping it simple and cycling, possession driven hockey at the start of the winning streak
Hamblin is hurt.
Skinner is getting picked high.
Revenge of the Bjugstad – he’s got stu’s #
There it is. Second period effort from last game…win a battle, ffs…
Terrible hockey by the Oilers.
Maybe Kenny should be looking for PK guys?????
Looks like they’ve made an adjustment to more “defense in depth” versus standing up at the blueline as teams enter thru the neutral zone. Was working pretty good. Yotes are picking Skinner high and he was bothered more by the forward in front and put himself out of position to make the save.
2nd period blues continue… maybe it’s the long bench?!?!
Geez. Skinner wrong footed, there. Doesn’t help that our pk sucks…
Skinner didn’t see the pass until the puck was in the net.
Wow Canucks give up 10 losing to Wild 10-7 after being up 5-2.
..I’ve heard defense wins championships.
Hey now, I better see if Boldy got me some points in my hockey pool.
After One: 2-1 Edmonton
8-8 shots
17-15 Corsi for Edmonton five-on-five
==
Nice to see Mattias Janmark score, the Glimmer Twins and Mick Taylor also shone like diamonds.
Flurry: Eight shots by Edmonton, by eight different men
Hurry: Dylan Holloway makes the fourth line fast
Worry: Vincent Desharnais seems to be getting into trouble unnecessarily
This is great.
Would love to see a Flurry, a Hurry, and a Worry for every game.
Jack mentioned during the broadcast that Holloway’s illness last game was due to food poisoning (so nothing contagious or lingering)
Decent first period – a little ragged but the good guys have the lead
What a cheap spear by Dumba. Hope we score here.
Other than the RNH shot that was a non-threatening PP. Great shot by Nuge.
Losing battles left and right. Not liking that. Don’t take these guys lightly!
Coyotes forechecking hard and turning pucks over.
‘Lets Go Oilers’ chant is like TML fans at Rogers Place.
I was part of that!!!!
Where you at, pussycat?
OilersNation trip with the wife – Tyler and the gang.
Someone in your group is dressed like an Oilers Nation parking cop, yes?
Yes, that was the captain, i was sitting just in behind him!
Even more pressure on Brown as Janmark, Ryan and Ceci have all scored recently. Of course hard to score from the press box….
For Brown, it’s just as hard to score in the slot as it is the box.
Janmark bumper