2023-24 Game 52 Oilers at Coyotes

by Lowetide
Philip Broberg photo by Bruce McCurdy

The Edmonton Oilers are in the desert today, playing the Arizona Coyotes. The road trip looked cloudy with a chance of rain before a big win against the Dallas Stars, and with a win today this trip would be considered a resounding success.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
  • At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
  • Actual February results: 3-3-0, 6 points in 6 games
  • Oilers in 2023-24: 32-18-1, 65 points in 51 games

The rest of this month should go 4-2-0 or thereabouts, meaning Edmonton would finish the month 36-20-1, 73 points in 57 games. That’s a 105-point pace, and could mean home ice advantage for Edmonton over Vegas Golden Knights. That might be key. Is Stanley straight ahead?

TOP 30 PLAYERS IN THE 2024 DRAFT

I don’t see the Oilers drafting any of these kids, but there are some interesting names among the top 30 this season. Seven WHL, five OHL and USHL prospects. Plenty of Russians and Finns, where are the Swedish kids this year?

MAX WANNER

Wanner is coming along well, he’s physical, stepping up and forcing the issue. Still needs work on passing, getting pucks through to the net and the usual challenges young shutdown blue face. The Condors are actually depressing to watch right now, but Wanner is making headway. In the last five games he is 3-1 even-strength goals, while the rest of the team is 6-11. Wow.

CONDORS FORWARDS AS ROOKIES (A COMPARISON)

This is rudimentary but we’re all most familiar with Oilers players so comps we know allows us to see things clearly. As rookies, Xavier Bourgault and Raphael Lavoie were comparable. Now, as you know, gaudy scoring numbers in the AHL don’t necessarily mean NHL success is guaranteed. Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson in year 1 above of their careers is a good reminder.

So, when we see Ryan McLeod, Tyler Tullio and James Hamblin in a cluster around .40 pts-game, that’s an area where NHL-calibre players can come from. I don’t think the lower group have told their story yet, but will say that even at .25 pts-game, Jayden Grubbe looks like he could make the NHL someday.

CONDORS FORWARDS AS SOPHOMORES (A COMPARISON)

James Hamblin is 22 here, so one year older than players like Tullio and Bourgault. Hamblin is a center and has two-way acumen, but is limited offensively so his NHL career is going to play out on the fourth line (in my opinion). There are higher hopes for everyone in bold below Hamblin, but it’s my belief there are too many and the players are not announcing their presence with authority.

Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio get knocked off the puck too easily, and their touches are rare. Ryan McLeod was at 1.00 in his second year. Now that was the pandemic season, but he had a strong third season and one standout skill (speed) that was his calling card.

I think, if we’re honest, Bourgault’s standout skills are passing and anticipation; it isn’t turning into goals in the AHL. If they aren’t happening in the minors, they can’t happen in the NHL. Bourgault is in trouble as a prospect. I know some blame the coach, and that could be exactly the problem.

I do know Bourgault was strong early on a line with Lane Pederson and that lasted about three games until injuries hit. My working theory is that Colin Chaulk is losing Bourgault like Tom Renney lost Magnus Paajarvi. Ironically, Bourgault and Puljujarvi have the same issue: They are miles from being first-shot scorers. That brings us to Lavoie.

CONDORS FORWARDS, THIRD YEAR (A COMPARISON)

The player we need to focus on here is Raphael Lavoie. By year three he is scoring well enough to be the top scoring prospect in the system, well clear of James Hamblin. He doesn’t play center (McLeod and Hamblin do) but does have a great shot and is a volume shooter. He is on the Patrick Maroon highway to the NHL, meaning he is less likely to make it with the Oilers and could land in Columbus, then find his way.

By year three pro, the winners are either in the NHL (Anton Slepyshev, Kailer Yamamoto, Dylan Holloway) or on their way (Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan McLeod). Evan Patrick Russell scored enough in the AHL (he was older, out of college) to make it to the NHL. By this time, Bourgault and company have to be touching the puck and posting enough offense to get noticed.

CONDORS FORWARDS, FOURTH YEAR (A COMPARISON)

This is the exit year. All aboard who’s coming aboard for the NHL. Lavoie and Hamblin aren’t there, and their comps are Marody and Benson. Foot speed was the deal for those two fellows, Lavoie is not a burner but Hamblin can scoot (I think he’s quicker than fast, your mileage may vary).

Bourgault is 21. You don’t give up on him until after the 2025-26 season.

He is tracking like Raphael Lavoie. Blame can be shared, but it’s Bourgault’s career in the balance. He needs to touch the puck, make plays, score goals and he needs to do it pretty damn soon. That’s the deal.

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dangilitis

While putting up over 200 pts over the last 2 seasons, Kucherov is a -2 in that span. This season he is a “PP merchant” (to borrow a phrase from McDavid haters), which partly explains the discrepancy.

This seems hard to do, to still have a negative even goal differential while being a point producing machine. McDavid did put up a -3 from 2018-20, but those Oilers teams weren’t exactly world beaters. He also did not win any major awards in 2018-19 or 2019-20.

Also worth pointing out that pts/game right now doesn’t discriminate between McDavid (1.66), MacKinnon (1.63), or Kucherov (1.86). If it is between the 3, MacKinnon will likely curry more favour for Hart because he’s never won it, and the writers’ association is full of people who value garbage like that.

But the truth is that at the moment, McDavid is the best player in the league, and he collectively contributes more to wins than any other skater. In the past, his D was cited as a knock against him, and so it should stand to reason that it should be factored into why he should win over Kucherov, Matthews, and MacKinnon this year. In terms of even strength points, he is nearly at MacKinnon’s production in 6 less games, and tied with Kucherov. I will be surprised if Connor wins it, even if he does battle back in the Art Ross race. The narrative appears to be set (goals for Matthews, and point push for the other 3), which may favour Matthews because his case is unique

OriginalPouzar

Auston Matthews, who JUST missed out on 50 in 50, is a lock for 60 (unless injured) and has a real legit shot at 70, is in the conversation.

I don’t like it, not one bit, but it has to be the case.

winchester

How does Kesselring look compared
to Broberg at this point in their careers?

OriginalPouzar

When Kesslering was 22 (he’s 24), he was nowhere near as dominant an AHL player as Broberg is – Broberg is the best d-man on the ice nightly (both teams) and often the best player.

winchester

Love to see the little girl with #73 jersey

Tarkus

The bad news: McDavid has now gone six games goalless.

The good news: He has rung up 15 assists in that span.

hunter1909

Oilers are in a good space right now. They’ve got superstars, first class complimentary players, up and coming young star players, and likely the best bang for your buck retread players in the NHL.

The team plays big boy hockey, unlike the poorer teams that rely on mass rushing the puck hoping that the one with the puck can pass it to one but not more than one of the others rushing up the ice.

Holland is playing a big part in this team. He took a capped out mess and now they’re ranked up there along with the top favourites.

hunter1909

Corey Perry is showing the Oilers exactly what sticking up for the cause looks like.

He’s likely going to play a huge part to win another cup with the Oilers next spring.

Such a stand up rat lol

Last edited 9 months ago by hunter1909
Tarkus

Summarizing!

No work and all play–followed by post-game libations with friends–means Your Humble Correspondent’s report was delayed.

Anywho, the House of Stone got off the schneid with not one but two goals, giving him 16 on the season.

Prospecting takes a break until Wodin’s Day.

OriginalPouzar

Fun game to be at as an Oilers fan.

I got foisted on to the ON pre-game pod for a few minutes as well!

winchester

Is that something dirty??

samIam

Apparently the Jeff Jackson’s Oilers could not afford $2M AAV for Nick Bjugstad, but could afford $750k and $3.25M for Connor Brown. Now they are looking for a large right shot centre. Good job guys.

Last edited 9 months ago by samIam
samIam

While into presenting facts – its important to note who Brown’s agents proxy and otherwise, were. And consider whether or not that could POSSIBLY affect a player evaluation.

samIam

the facts of the issue should be presented when discussing the Brown contract and why Bjugstad was not an option.

I would like to know if Bjugstad was offered 775k with a 3.25M bonus option, and if he would have considered it. We don’t know that. But it’s seems within the realm of possibility that he would have.

We do know that Bjugstad does not have the same agent(s), friends, Erie Otters associations as Connor Brown. And we do know that those factors affect judgment.

OriginalPouzar

We absolutely DO know that information and, no, Bjugstag was definitely not offered that contract as that contract was not available to him.

Performance bonuses clauses are generally only available for ELCs and for 35+ contracts. There is an exception for NHL veterans who missed a certain amount of the previous season with injury on LTIR – Brown and Max P. were available for these, Bjugstad was not.

With respect to you and the great data information you provide, when bashing upper management with respect to contract terms, I would suggest one be confidant they know the workings of what types of terms are and are not permitted.

yeraslob

Yeah Bjugstad has only scored more goals and has more points than any of our bottom 6.

Durag

Damn Jeff Jackson and his crazy fantasy world where 2,000,000 is a bigger number than 750,000!!

Todd Macallan

You are correct, they literally could not afford 2m aav vs 775k aav. Exhibit B this summer was Klim Kostin.

Also, JJ was hired Aug. 3 and Bjugstad signed with the Yotes on July 1. These are all important facts to note, while I also am disappointed with Brown’s season, as everyone is.

rich tm

You shouldn’t let the facts get in the way of a false narrative.

samIam

There’s no misrepresentation of the facts here. It was a poor choice.

The false narrative is that somehow this choice was unavoidable or that it was a good idea in the first place. Brown’s production has never been top-6 (more like top-9), and at almost 30 years old he was recovering from a very serious injury/surgery. What could have gone wrong?

jp

There’s no misrepresentation of the facts here. It was a poor choice. 

The false narrative is that somehow this choice was unavoidable or that it was a good idea in the first place. Brown’s production has never been top-6 (more like top-9)

I don’t understand why people do this stuff.

There is 100% a misrepresentation of facts here. 

During Brown’s 3-year Ottawa career his point production was tied for 117th in the league. His goal production was tied for 122nd in the league. Both ranked higher at 5v5.

By definition very easily ‘top 6’ (top 192 forwards) production, and in fact closer to ‘1st line’ than to ‘3rd line’ or ‘top 9’. 

At 5v5 his goal and point production were in fact both ‘1st line’ (ie – top 96 in the league). 

I know it’s great for effect to say Brown has ‘never been a top 6 player’, or has ‘never had top 6 production’, but it’s absolutely and totally untrue (whatever narrative one is trying to push).

€√¥£€^$

Is Bjugstad the actual missing piece this team needs and as a 4th line Center, how is $2,100,000 even a reasonable contract? Also, Bjugstad is getting 2C minutes in AZ.

Last edited 9 months ago by €√¥£€^$
samIam

Right, because there’s no way that Holland could have presented Bjudstad or Kostin with a bonus laden contract of 775k, and there’s no way Jackson’s association with Brown affected the offer. Since you’re into dates, Brown also signed on July 1st and ostensibly it was already known that Jackson would be Holland’s boss as “divestment” takes quite a bit of time.

Todd Macallan

To my understanding Kostin and Bjugstad were not eligible to sign bonus laden deals. This was a unique opportunity for Brown as LT said, due to his minimal gp the year before from injury and being a vet of over 400 gp, while otherwise bonus laden deals are for ELCs or over 35 year old player deals.

Someone with more CBA knowledge may be able to confirm or correct that but I think that is the case with Brown’s unique deal.

rich tm

This is exactly it. Brown was eligible for a bonus laden deal. Bjugstad and Kostin weren’t.

Comparing that with Connor Brown’s deal is apples and oranges because he was the only person on LTIR last year eligible for that kind of deal.

That’s not to say Brown has worked out. He hasn’t been a good investment so far. But that’s not the same as presented above.

samIam

If Kostin and Bjugstad were not eligible for the same deals, it still doesn’t change the fact that the Brown contract was in fact a higher risk contract that involves a conflict of interest. And, other choices could have been made to sign Bjugstad. We’re not talking millions and millions of dollars difference here. He seemed pissed today. Good for him. Those goals were pretty sweet.

Side

It’s a conflict of interest now for people to acquire players they know and may have already played with other players on the team?

OriginalPouzar

This is beneath you.

You were not aware of the facts – the fact that Kostin and Bjugstad were not eligible for bonus-laden deals – you based an argument partially on a fallacy and once pointed out you don’t acknowledge that your argument’s basis was incorrect and think about if your conclusions should be altered.

You earlier speak of Jackson knowing he was going to be the Oilers chief hockey exec on July 1 but, again, don’t seem to be in the know of the facts that he was presented with the opportunity from a high level for the first time as the draft approached and he needed weeks to deal with the draft and free agency before even really diving in to the thought.

He was nowhere near the Oilers’ boss on July 1 and, in any event, any conflict of interest would have worked the other way – if Jackson knew he was leaving as Brown’s adviser and going to work for the team that would go against getting the best deal for his current client.

Mayan Oil

You understand correctly. Brown’s contract situation and historical production were unique, and it was a creative and good gamble that hasn’t paid off to the degree one would have expected, GIVEN THE FACTS AT THE TIME OF SIGNING.

hunter1909

You talk as if every time you go to the casino you walk out with wheelbarrows full of money.

Last edited 9 months ago by hunter1909
maudite

Die was cast when decision made not to buyout Campbell that left very few viable options for anything of even 2M for bjugstad variety.

I dont care what anyone says about no more buyouts -> this years cap space is infinitely more valuable the lasting tail of buyout cap space. There’s a market bottleneck soon to be less restricted. It starts sliding further from faberge egg edging toward Easter cream egg level value…on a egg value scale (with rotten egg obviously lowest end)

Durag

Still 3 fewer 3rd period goals than Minnesota scored today, but not bad.

Admiral Ackbar

Man, Kaner, an ozone penalty late in the game. Come on bro. Stop chasing the hattrick

Ice Sage

He had a shot there but passed off to Ryan… didn’t want the 10 minute delay while picking up hats, I guess

danny

Jeckyl and Hyde.

Maybe 97 went napalm in the dressing room or something, but their effort and forecheck is like a completely different team than the previous.

813.52Ran

I’m getting pissed on the Louie DeBrusk “Shot Mentality” drinking game.

Ice Sage

“Shot” Mentality? 😉

Durag

That could lead to a shot fatality!

Ice Sage

or another tequila sunrise in the desert…

rich tm

It’s a poor man’s Stauffer (who’s always saying you need to get to X number of shots/always ragging on Bouch to shoot on the PP).

cowboy bill

16 shots. But the Oilers only needed 12 and scored 4 times.

Mayan Oil

I don’t think that is what he meant by shot mentality, I think it means pucks, not liquor….

gogliano

The key difference between Period 2 and 3 was “shot mentality” – person paid to comment on NHL hockey.

SkatinginSand

Louie seems like a guy that I could have a beer with and listen to his stories for hours. After hearing any of his analysis, I have thought that I know more about hockey, never.

Diablo

I bet Louie is completely aware that we’re panning his favourite phrase, and is totally breaking the fourth wall now. He’s universally liked by the players past and present, which matters if you’re going to stand between the benches.

Durag

McLeod breaks a 9 game pointless drought. Let’s see if Foegele can break his 8 during the Great Arizonan Capitulation.

Admiral Ackbar

They did this against Detroit. Is this an honest game plan?!?

Ice Sage

Maybe it’s brilliant adaptation between periods?
Oilers are super-conditioned?

… or most likely, Phx are drained after playing yesterday and grinding hard for 2 periods

Sierra

One team played less than 24 hours ago. The other did not.

Gerta Rauss

Mcleod from Leon

Gerta Rauss

check that- they gave it to Kane from Mcleod and Drai

Sierra

Much, much better period.

813.52Ran

I’ll take it . . . but it doesn’t mean I have to like it.

Ice Sage

Wow, that’s an all-time, all world tip.

Admiral Ackbar

Split up McLeon, opposition doesn’t have the depth to handle it. Nice

Gerta Rauss

Rhymin’ Hyman takes care of business

Ice Sage

Welcome to a real NHL shot, kid!

Gerta Rauss

Kane gets the job done

Admiral Ackbar

Some absolutely head scratching mistakes in the neutral zone today. Again, again, and again. Yuck

Last edited 9 months ago by Admiral Ackbar
Ice Sage

A bit of credit to the ‘yotes – they’re skating and clogging.

Admiral Ackbar

This has been an atrocious effort. It’s like an AHL team playing a middling NHL team. This is happening often of late. Coaching and leadership needs to get a hold of this. Slow plays with the puck. Telegraphed plays. Trying for cute breakouts after getting gassed in their own zone. Ffs this is hard to watch.

thehappyrabbi

This team as constructed is way too slow. Perry on the first line forces Mcdavid and Draisaitl to do too much work. He is the opposite Puljujarvi, good at offense but absent at everything else.

Scungilli Slushy

He’s world class at agitating

But I agree. If you construct a roster where you’re best players ‘have’ to help the lessers, in the sense do the work the ‘helpers’ normally would, you’re bass ackwards

Know your starting point. Everyone is there to maximize Leeloo, uh, Connor

cowboy bill

Oilers are going to have to come up with a big third period, as usual.

Sierra

One team played less than 24 hours ago. The other looks like they were on the golf course yesterday and spent the night in Old Town Scottsdale.

Durag

Tuned in late to this one with the score already 2-1 and I’m wondering how the hell the Oilers scored 2 goals.

cowboy bill

They started well,then quit skating
.

dsr29

Please split up Mcdrai
Looks like a one line team again, and the one line doesn’t look that great.

Sierra

Agreed, split them up or tell them to start shouting. Too many passes looking for the perfect set-up.

813.52Ran

Stiiiiiink

danny

Oilers gain the zone, Gagner gets the puck and immediately tries to make a low percentage play through 3 coyotes. Turnover, Coyotes skate it up, apply pressure and scores.

Either the puck possession message is not being made anymore or the players stopped listening and completely forgot what turned their season around.

If Gagner kept the puck, cycled down the boards, let his teammates reload and the weakside help starts fire checking, the Oilers put in a good shift. They get a few corsis and maybe a play opens up for an easy high percentage pass or shot.

It’s so frustrating after watching how they played for most of the streak.

Sierra

delete Gagner and insert name <here>, including the team’s top players.

danny

Yeah it’s rampant. The only guy that consistently makes the simple play decision is McLeod.

fishman

Gagner seems to be really struggling last handful of games he has played. Maybe time to consider bringing Hamblin back (or someone else??)

danny

Hamblin and Erne, despite their faults, were key examples of keeping it simple and cycling, possession driven hockey at the start of the winning streak

OriginalPouzar

Hamblin is hurt.

rich tm

Skinner is getting picked high.

Ice Sage

Revenge of the Bjugstad – he’s got stu’s #

KnightRain

There it is. Second period effort from last game…win a battle, ffs…

Sierra

Terrible hockey by the Oilers.

fishman

Maybe Kenny should be looking for PK guys?????

rich tm

Looks like they’ve made an adjustment to more “defense in depth” versus standing up at the blueline as teams enter thru the neutral zone. Was working pretty good. Yotes are picking Skinner high and he was bothered more by the forward in front and put himself out of position to make the save.

Ice Sage

2nd period blues continue… maybe it’s the long bench?!?!

KnightRain

Geez. Skinner wrong footed, there. Doesn’t help that our pk sucks…

Sierra

Skinner didn’t see the pass until the puck was in the net.

fishman

Wow Canucks give up 10 losing to Wild 10-7 after being up 5-2.

Kert

..I’ve heard defense wins championships.

yeraslob

Hey now, I better see if Boldy got me some points in my hockey pool.

Spartacus

Flurry: Eight shots by Edmonton, by eight different men

Hurry: Dylan Holloway makes the fourth line fast

Worry: Vincent Desharnais seems to be getting into trouble unnecessarily

This is great.

Would love to see a Flurry, a Hurry, and a Worry for every game.

Gerta Rauss

Jack mentioned during the broadcast that Holloway’s illness last game was due to food poisoning (so nothing contagious or lingering)

Decent first period – a little ragged but the good guys have the lead

fishman

What a cheap spear by Dumba. Hope we score here.

Sierra

Other than the RNH shot that was a non-threatening PP. Great shot by Nuge.

KnightRain

Losing battles left and right. Not liking that. Don’t take these guys lightly!

fishman

Coyotes forechecking hard and turning pucks over.

Elgin R

‘Lets Go Oilers’ chant is like TML fans at Rogers Place.

OriginalPouzar

I was part of that!!!!

Tarkus

Where you at, pussycat?

OriginalPouzar

OilersNation trip with the wife – Tyler and the gang.

Tarkus

Someone in your group is dressed like an Oilers Nation parking cop, yes?

OriginalPouzar

Yes, that was the captain, i was sitting just in behind him!

fishman

Even more pressure on Brown as Janmark, Ryan and Ceci have all scored recently. Of course hard to score from the press box….

DevilsLettuce

For Brown, it’s just as hard to score in the slot as it is the box.

Ice Sage

Janmark bumper